-gmail: less than 1 million users. this is not a success by any means. using the invite method to generate demand backfired. Becasue uptake has been slow, all google is going to see is that the more successful webmails are going to incorporate some of google's good ideas, into their own solutions, preventing any erosion of their marketshare.
-gtalk: less than 1 million users. google has no idea what the average im user wants; thus gtalk is not a viable alternative. Again, anything innovative gets folded into the borg.
-google pack: is a disaster, especially considering the suite of tools microsoft has in beta at ideas.live.com. This the best google could do? google's main product is still search, and because they're painted into a corner, they're ripe to get shot down.
-google video: I'm still not impressed, and neither is the market.
Microsoft and Yahoo have dozens of products with which to leverage against google. Google just has google.com - and ironically, they refuse to monetize the front page (justifiably afraid that they'll lose their core customer if they clutter it up).
It's the other way around. Google might need to kiss analyst ass buddy. Two reasons: for the most part, a much of Google stock isn't owned by independent private investors, but by institutional investors like Legg Mason. So in this instance, Google needs to pony up and start talking or the ride might end early.
Also, Google's reticense supports my assertion that the IPO was a a stock run-up. Markets are functions of mob behavior, and Google maximized buzz into a shitload of cash. The pendulum has swung, and Google can't have it both ways. Their money was good enough for you to take and use; accountability to their requirements is only appropriate.
odds are that your father is not in a preferred demographic for most web services anyway - especially ad based and supported services.
i can't imagine why google wouldn't want to take over webmail. it's too much of an opportunity to gain info on consumers in order to precisely deliver ads. gmail can only make their advertising business better, both in terms of their data set, and in regards to refining algorithms to better deliver applicable advertising. Also, building a personal profile for individuals means they can deliver ads to you when you're most likely to buy - i.e. for cyclical items, or for an artist you like who's album has just been released (or who's endorsing a new product you're likely to buy because of said endorsement). gmail just provides an excellent opportunity for relevant links - which means clickthrough... etc. So, for the most part, I don't buy that google didn't want to take over webmail. It just hasn't taken off.
just go to gmail's main page and there's a link where you can sign up using your mobile. you enter your phone number and they send you a text with an invitation code. i haven'y used it, but i can imagine that its not that big a deal to get a gmail account now.
don't forget, however, that despite your assertions of how much better than other webmails gmail is, they still don't have a million users of the service. if they've gone over a million - that's a relatively recent occurrence. I'm too lazy to google up the numbers. gtalk is similar; they have not been widely adopted.
so market acceptance is an interesting term - because the market by and large has only accepted google search and not much else.
dude, i've been through this a couple of times with my bank.
I freelance as a consultant for film. I fell into the gig by accident: I'd written a film for a producer (I was writing movies on the side at the time - doing pharma research during the day) and he needed me to do the financials for the film as well. He thought the financials were thorough enough to recommend me to his (rich) friends who were also looking to invest in film. They'd hire me to evaluate projects both as a line producer as well as market analysis in terms of prospects, etc.
My first check from this endeavor was more money than I'd ever had at any single time. I was on set, so I had the money wired into the account.
While on set (out of the country) I tried using my atm card. No dice. I couldn't log into my online banking. When I got home and went to the bank, I got the suspicious "wait right here" while the CS person went and got a manager. I told them what it was from and that it was legit. They did a background check. My account was frozen for 30 days while they checked it out. I got a business account after that - but occasionally, credits to the account are routinely frozen, especially if I'm dealing with a new client who hasn't wired in anything before. Apparently, entertainment shell companies are a favored vehicle of money launderers.
I was thinking of that too. Maybe public libraries can be retooled. Into after-school programs, say. The "retail locations are there" - retraining librarians to run after school programs shouldn't cost too much. Or you can hire recently retired teachers or other recently retired professionals to help kids with homework and with some mentoring for the older kids.
honestly, I wasn't thinking of charging more to keep out riff-raff. It was more about charging more to offset the costs of the additional amenities offered and the reduced number of seats a theater environment like this would have. It's an attempt to maintain theater margins.
the way exhibitors and distributors split ticket sales is something like this: 90% distributor/10% exhibitor first week, 75% distributor/25% exhibitor second week, etc. Thus, with most movies making their cash in four weeks max - the exhibitors are getting screwed on ticket sales. They see cash off high priced popcorn and sugar water. A high end pitch necessitates smaller theaters - means less sales of concessions, means erosion of margins. Charging a higher ticket price makes it worth their while.
sound up nice and loud? wow, I usually find it the opposite - too loud.
nonetheless - your point is valid.
in every other experience there is stratification of service. In New York you can dine in a five star restaurant or pick up some fries off the dollar menu at mcdonalds, often on the same block. it's all food - but the experiences are different.
in movies - without exception it's almost all mcdonalds and no five star. this herd mentality is offputting especially to those who've worked to gain some of the finer things in life, only to be herded into theaters that smell like locker rooms and sound like wb dramas.
i work in film and i've actually pitched the concept to some distribution execs who straight laughed me out of their offices - but what do you guys think of a high end film experience?
would you pay $20 (or roughly double what your area charges for a full price movie ticket) to go to a high end theater that served alcohol and high end food? or $15 for a high end coffee shop/dessert experience? would you pay an annual fee to belong to a network of theaters that screened patrons for admission and only showed a certain quality of film?
A ford focus and BMW 5 series accomplish the same thing - but both exist - and both serve market dynamics. Distributors are more concerned with getting movies to audiences than developing the user experience. Exhibitors want maximum number of seats.
I'd really be interested in what you guys thought about a higher tier movie experience.
In theory a PDA should have been a threat to the IPOD as well. IT's clear the IPOD's selling point isn't functionality per se.
My ppc plays videos and music (via a 1 gig sd card). I also have bluetooth (used mostly for DUN) - Wifi. I can do basical word processing and spreadsheet functions - surf the web, read ebooks, play games, skype, instant message... just a wide range of things at a cost on par with and in some instances below the cost of an IPOD.
Origami is going to need cool factor and the right price point to be effective because feature filled handhelds are already here - and no one wants them.
I'd have to agree. I had a Tungsten C during school and that was an awesome machine - but quite bulky. I cracked the screen - Palm wouldn't cover it and local stores were out of stock of replacement units so I moved on to a HP ppc. It does everything - it's really an amazing unit - except for hte fact that it had no keyboard like the Tungsten C. The lack of a keyboard really limits its functionality. The add-on keyboard is really not as useful.
I'd prefer not converge my phone and pda for battery life issues - but a keyboarded unit with bluetooth and wifi on the windows mobile platform really would simplify my life. tablets are too big and expensive with too short a battery life to justify the expense.
i've seen the origami speculation - and again they've missed the boat. Too big - no keyboard.
On the other hand the Oqo looked promising - but it's too much money to sink into a handheld. Paul Allen had the Flipstart startup - but it looks like vaporware now. It's actually a really good idea (www.flipstart.com) - good size - qwerty thumbboard, etc. But it also looked too expensive. I need an Oqo/Flipstart spec'd unit that can take a GSM SIM card for $500 or less and I'm there.
my hp pocket pc was limited by how quickly i could enter data into it. otherwise it's a damn useful machine.
Imagine you wanted to live on the wild side one night, and decide to rent a game? Because the option is there - in this all-in-one solution. You can. In fact, with Xbox live - you're a couple of buttons away from gameplay with a console and no games. In theory - you could probably redesign spaceship one with your desktop. Maybe not your cup of tea, but's it's nice to have the option should you become so inclined. As long as the feature is not obtrusive and/or limiting to other functions, gaming is an ideal function to have.
Microsoft should never have named it an xbox though. That was during the six-month window when somebody thought that placing an x before things somehow made them cool or extreme. They're stuck with it.
However, in the instance you mentioned, what would PS2 have lost if they'd not launched waiting for successful HD integration?
My point specifically is that Sony stands to lose the living room if they delay launch significantly. If they lose the living room, it won't matter how perfectly they implement blu-ray and online. XBox 360 could have delayed launch until Halo 3 was ready to ship but that might have killed first mover advantage (such as it is in console wars).
My friend James and I both work in media here in NY. We were invited to a screening for an independent film. James has a Rio something or other (this is about a year ago). Hot blond chick gets in line behind us. She's checking James out. James pulls out his Rio to turn down the volume so he can make his move. She looks at his Rio with distaste.
HBC: what's that? an ipod? James: no, it's a Rio ____; it's just as good, and it has more features. HBC: (already checked out) oh. cool.
HBC discontinues her checking out of James, all because he didn't have the smarts to buy an ipod or conceal the fact that he had another DAP to himself.
i'd say microsoft is more of a threat than apple. let's not forget that sony has an indomitable foothold in the living room already - the PS2. The living room is theirs to lose.
When I first learned how to code - I had a high school teacher named Mr. Rice - and he always admonished me to keep it simple. He'd write KISS on the board - and then say no offense - to which I'd reply, - none taken. Sony can't seem to keep it simple.
All of which is to say - all Sony has to do is SHOW UP ON TIME - and the living room is theirs. But no - they keep trying to kill every DAVID out there. If the PS3 were coming out RIGHT NOW - the console wars would be a rout - Sony would win. Even with no killer launch titles - Sony would be a hands down winner because of the installed user base and backwards compatibility. They can always add their online service later - in say the PS3.1 or whatever. Blu-Ray spec issues? Add it in PS3.2. They just need to be in the marketplace with a new product.
To win in the living room - you must deliver gaming. Because apple does not - they're not yet a living room solution. Microsoft delivers gaming in a very nice package - but they don't know how to design for the living room - meaning they design boxes that age poorly and soon seem and look anachronistic (the xbox one is so damn ugly). But the X-Box gaming experience is superior - and x-box live is a gaming solution without competition. They just can't get games out there fast enough.
The first one stop gaming/DVR/audio/movie device with already recognizable brand awareness wins the living room hands down.
I remember reading somewhere once that the other countries consider the US to be the "denial" nation. We deny death and refuse to acknowledge it exists. We deny sex and the flashing of a breast on television is cause for uproar and international scandal. We deny and decry violence - even those we mostly partake in forms of mitigated violence - sports, academic competition, hell... even American Idol isn't about seeing one person win but hundreds fail and lose miserably.
It is indeed in our very nature as animals - to compete and to fight. And schools and society encourage kids to fight and compete and annihilate each other in so many ways. But because the US is this horrifically contradictory society - we cheer a vicious hit by steriod enhanced athletes on a football field, but then are horrified when the kid who loves to play football sees steriods as his chance to compete on the grand stage.
I'm not a historian, but many always talk about the classic signs of a civilization on the downslope - and the United States is there, dude.
dude, did you read the Sam JAckson interview about that movie? He was like, I didn't even have to read the script - they had me on the title!!!!!! Snakes on a plane? It has to be good!!!!!!
... only homos pay for what they can easily get for free. complete internalization of arbitrary social mores with no room for revision or improvisation. I'd never buy anything that I can easily get for free with little fear of recrimination. It's just stupid. My music collection is great and timeless. If they want me to pay for music - make sure I can't get it anywhere else for free.
That goes for you too, Hollywood. You can pry bit torrent from my cold dead fingers!
I disagree with you. I not only think we will have direct mind to game interfaces, but as usual, porn will pave the way. Re: level of endorphins - we do it all the time - modulate our moods and endorphin levels with drugs, diet, exercise, etc. Feeling the cold when playing a winter scene or feeling the water when I wade through muck isn't likely to give me PTSD - nor is stimulating the olfactories to add to the experience.
Going to an athletic event might be more like paying to jack into your favorite player's neural net as opposed to just sitting courtside.
I know its going to happen.
We've just tapped the surface of the genome - but we're already swapping parts in and out - from species to species... upgrading and downgrading and organ-farming and the like. Humans will do it. It's what we do.
Slashdot Mirror
Please mod parent up.
This isn't the first time google has slipped up.
-gmail: less than 1 million users. this is not a success by any means. using the invite method to generate demand backfired. Becasue uptake has been slow, all google is going to see is that the more successful webmails are going to incorporate some of google's good ideas, into their own solutions, preventing any erosion of their marketshare.
-gtalk: less than 1 million users. google has no idea what the average im user wants; thus gtalk is not a viable alternative. Again, anything innovative gets folded into the borg.
-google pack: is a disaster, especially considering the suite of tools microsoft has in beta at ideas.live.com. This the best google could do? google's main product is still search, and because they're painted into a corner, they're ripe to get shot down.
-google video: I'm still not impressed, and neither is the market.
Microsoft and Yahoo have dozens of products with which to leverage against google. Google just has google.com - and ironically, they refuse to monetize the front page (justifiably afraid that they'll lose their core customer if they clutter it up).
It's the other way around. Google might need to kiss analyst ass buddy. Two reasons: for the most part, a much of Google stock isn't owned by independent private investors, but by institutional investors like Legg Mason. So in this instance, Google needs to pony up and start talking or the ride might end early.
Also, Google's reticense supports my assertion that the IPO was a a stock run-up. Markets are functions of mob behavior, and Google maximized buzz into a shitload of cash. The pendulum has swung, and Google can't have it both ways. Their money was good enough for you to take and use; accountability to their requirements is only appropriate.
rpg.
worst case scenario... platformer. *shrugs*
never overestimate the intelligence of film execs.
odds are that your father is not in a preferred demographic for most web services anyway - especially ad based and supported services.
i can't imagine why google wouldn't want to take over webmail. it's too much of an opportunity to gain info on consumers in order to precisely deliver ads. gmail can only make their advertising business better, both in terms of their data set, and in regards to refining algorithms to better deliver applicable advertising. Also, building a personal profile for individuals means they can deliver ads to you when you're most likely to buy - i.e. for cyclical items, or for an artist you like who's album has just been released (or who's endorsing a new product you're likely to buy because of said endorsement). gmail just provides an excellent opportunity for relevant links - which means clickthrough... etc. So, for the most part, I don't buy that google didn't want to take over webmail. It just hasn't taken off.
just go to gmail's main page and there's a link where you can sign up using your mobile. you enter your phone number and they send you a text with an invitation code. i haven'y used it, but i can imagine that its not that big a deal to get a gmail account now.
don't forget, however, that despite your assertions of how much better than other webmails gmail is, they still don't have a million users of the service. if they've gone over a million - that's a relatively recent occurrence. I'm too lazy to google up the numbers. gtalk is similar; they have not been widely adopted.
so market acceptance is an interesting term - because the market by and large has only accepted google search and not much else.
dude, i've been through this a couple of times with my bank.
I freelance as a consultant for film. I fell into the gig by accident: I'd written a film for a producer (I was writing movies on the side at the time - doing pharma research during the day) and he needed me to do the financials for the film as well. He thought the financials were thorough enough to recommend me to his (rich) friends who were also looking to invest in film. They'd hire me to evaluate projects both as a line producer as well as market analysis in terms of prospects, etc.
My first check from this endeavor was more money than I'd ever had at any single time. I was on set, so I had the money wired into the account.
While on set (out of the country) I tried using my atm card. No dice. I couldn't log into my online banking. When I got home and went to the bank, I got the suspicious "wait right here" while the CS person went and got a manager. I told them what it was from and that it was legit. They did a background check. My account was frozen for 30 days while they checked it out. I got a business account after that - but occasionally, credits to the account are routinely frozen, especially if I'm dealing with a new client who hasn't wired in anything before. Apparently, entertainment shell companies are a favored vehicle of money launderers.
Good times.
I was thinking of that too. Maybe public libraries can be retooled. Into after-school programs, say. The "retail locations are there" - retraining librarians to run after school programs shouldn't cost too much. Or you can hire recently retired teachers or other recently retired professionals to help kids with homework and with some mentoring for the older kids.
honestly, I wasn't thinking of charging more to keep out riff-raff. It was more about charging more to offset the costs of the additional amenities offered and the reduced number of seats a theater environment like this would have. It's an attempt to maintain theater margins.
the way exhibitors and distributors split ticket sales is something like this: 90% distributor/10% exhibitor first week, 75% distributor/25% exhibitor second week, etc. Thus, with most movies making their cash in four weeks max - the exhibitors are getting screwed on ticket sales. They see cash off high priced popcorn and sugar water. A high end pitch necessitates smaller theaters - means less sales of concessions, means erosion of margins. Charging a higher ticket price makes it worth their while.
sound up nice and loud? wow, I usually find it the opposite - too loud.
nonetheless - your point is valid.
in every other experience there is stratification of service. In New York you can dine in a five star restaurant or pick up some fries off the dollar menu at mcdonalds, often on the same block. it's all food - but the experiences are different.
in movies - without exception it's almost all mcdonalds and no five star. this herd mentality is offputting especially to those who've worked to gain some of the finer things in life, only to be herded into theaters that smell like locker rooms and sound like wb dramas.
i work in film and i've actually pitched the concept to some distribution execs who straight laughed me out of their offices - but what do you guys think of a high end film experience?
would you pay $20 (or roughly double what your area charges for a full price movie ticket) to go to a high end theater that served alcohol and high end food? or $15 for a high end coffee shop/dessert experience? would you pay an annual fee to belong to a network of theaters that screened patrons for admission and only showed a certain quality of film?
A ford focus and BMW 5 series accomplish the same thing - but both exist - and both serve market dynamics. Distributors are more concerned with getting movies to audiences than developing the user experience. Exhibitors want maximum number of seats.
I'd really be interested in what you guys thought about a higher tier movie experience.
dvd sales are about 55% of an average film's revenue. dvd sales are flattening though.
Low end of expectations? Wow. This justifies patent squatting to the unscrupulous looking for the cash-out.
In theory a PDA should have been a threat to the IPOD as well. IT's clear the IPOD's selling point isn't functionality per se.
My ppc plays videos and music (via a 1 gig sd card). I also have bluetooth (used mostly for DUN) - Wifi. I can do basical word processing and spreadsheet functions - surf the web, read ebooks, play games, skype, instant message... just a wide range of things at a cost on par with and in some instances below the cost of an IPOD.
Origami is going to need cool factor and the right price point to be effective because feature filled handhelds are already here - and no one wants them.
I'd have to agree. I had a Tungsten C during school and that was an awesome machine - but quite bulky. I cracked the screen - Palm wouldn't cover it and local stores were out of stock of replacement units so I moved on to a HP ppc. It does everything - it's really an amazing unit - except for hte fact that it had no keyboard like the Tungsten C. The lack of a keyboard really limits its functionality. The add-on keyboard is really not as useful. I'd prefer not converge my phone and pda for battery life issues - but a keyboarded unit with bluetooth and wifi on the windows mobile platform really would simplify my life. tablets are too big and expensive with too short a battery life to justify the expense. i've seen the origami speculation - and again they've missed the boat. Too big - no keyboard. On the other hand the Oqo looked promising - but it's too much money to sink into a handheld. Paul Allen had the Flipstart startup - but it looks like vaporware now. It's actually a really good idea (www.flipstart.com) - good size - qwerty thumbboard, etc. But it also looked too expensive. I need an Oqo/Flipstart spec'd unit that can take a GSM SIM card for $500 or less and I'm there. my hp pocket pc was limited by how quickly i could enter data into it. otherwise it's a damn useful machine.
Imagine you wanted to live on the wild side one night, and decide to rent a game? Because the option is there - in this all-in-one solution. You can. In fact, with Xbox live - you're a couple of buttons away from gameplay with a console and no games. In theory - you could probably redesign spaceship one with your desktop. Maybe not your cup of tea, but's it's nice to have the option should you become so inclined. As long as the feature is not obtrusive and/or limiting to other functions, gaming is an ideal function to have.
Microsoft should never have named it an xbox though. That was during the six-month window when somebody thought that placing an x before things somehow made them cool or extreme. They're stuck with it.
Good point.
However, in the instance you mentioned, what would PS2 have lost if they'd not launched waiting for successful HD integration?
My point specifically is that Sony stands to lose the living room if they delay launch significantly. If they lose the living room, it won't matter how perfectly they implement blu-ray and online. XBox 360 could have delayed launch until Halo 3 was ready to ship but that might have killed first mover advantage (such as it is in console wars).
Good point. Let's see if I understand you.
My friend James and I both work in media here in NY. We were invited to a screening for an independent film. James has a Rio something or other (this is about a year ago). Hot blond chick gets in line behind us. She's checking James out. James pulls out his Rio to turn down the volume so he can make his move. She looks at his Rio with distaste.
HBC: what's that? an ipod?
James: no, it's a Rio ____; it's just as good, and it has more features.
HBC: (already checked out) oh. cool.
HBC discontinues her checking out of James, all because he didn't have the smarts to buy an ipod or conceal the fact that he had another DAP to himself.
Is this what you mean by new social practices?
i'd say microsoft is more of a threat than apple. let's not forget that sony has an indomitable foothold in the living room already - the PS2. The living room is theirs to lose.
When I first learned how to code - I had a high school teacher named Mr. Rice - and he always admonished me to keep it simple. He'd write KISS on the board - and then say no offense - to which I'd reply, - none taken. Sony can't seem to keep it simple.
All of which is to say - all Sony has to do is SHOW UP ON TIME - and the living room is theirs. But no - they keep trying to kill every DAVID out there. If the PS3 were coming out RIGHT NOW - the console wars would be a rout - Sony would win. Even with no killer launch titles - Sony would be a hands down winner because of the installed user base and backwards compatibility. They can always add their online service later - in say the PS3.1 or whatever. Blu-Ray spec issues? Add it in PS3.2. They just need to be in the marketplace with a new product.
To win in the living room - you must deliver gaming. Because apple does not - they're not yet a living room solution. Microsoft delivers gaming in a very nice package - but they don't know how to design for the living room - meaning they design boxes that age poorly and soon seem and look anachronistic (the xbox one is so damn ugly). But the X-Box gaming experience is superior - and x-box live is a gaming solution without competition. They just can't get games out there fast enough.
The first one stop gaming/DVR/audio/movie device with already recognizable brand awareness wins the living room hands down.
i think that's what they've got planned with the next gen treo.
I agree with you.
I remember reading somewhere once that the other countries consider the US to be the "denial" nation. We deny death and refuse to acknowledge it exists. We deny sex and the flashing of a breast on television is cause for uproar and international scandal. We deny and decry violence - even those we mostly partake in forms of mitigated violence - sports, academic competition, hell... even American Idol isn't about seeing one person win but hundreds fail and lose miserably.
It is indeed in our very nature as animals - to compete and to fight. And schools and society encourage kids to fight and compete and annihilate each other in so many ways. But because the US is this horrifically contradictory society - we cheer a vicious hit by steriod enhanced athletes on a football field, but then are horrified when the kid who loves to play football sees steriods as his chance to compete on the grand stage.
I'm not a historian, but many always talk about the classic signs of a civilization on the downslope - and the United States is there, dude.
dude, did you read the Sam JAckson interview about that movie? He was like, I didn't even have to read the script - they had me on the title!!!!!! Snakes on a plane? It has to be good!!!!!!
... only homos pay for what they can easily get for free. complete internalization of arbitrary social mores with no room for revision or improvisation. I'd never buy anything that I can easily get for free with little fear of recrimination. It's just stupid. My music collection is great and timeless. If they want me to pay for music - make sure I can't get it anywhere else for free.
That goes for you too, Hollywood. You can pry bit torrent from my cold dead fingers!
what of the pregnant women on slashdot? *shrugs*
... from the same people who gave you the VAIO.
I disagree with you. I not only think we will have direct mind to game interfaces, but as usual, porn will pave the way. Re: level of endorphins - we do it all the time - modulate our moods and endorphin levels with drugs, diet, exercise, etc. Feeling the cold when playing a winter scene or feeling the water when I wade through muck isn't likely to give me PTSD - nor is stimulating the olfactories to add to the experience.
Going to an athletic event might be more like paying to jack into your favorite player's neural net as opposed to just sitting courtside.
I know its going to happen.
We've just tapped the surface of the genome - but we're already swapping parts in and out - from species to species... upgrading and downgrading and organ-farming and the like. Humans will do it. It's what we do.