Looking at the star trek memory wall, there is a spike of cancer deaths in the 40's and a larger spike of heart attack deaths in the 60's.
LD50 for men is age 75. Women is higher (78?).
It's all about the odds. Say you went from 25% heart attack death to 10% cancer death and LD50 rose to age 80. And everyone had a 30 year old body until they died. Some until 95. Some, unfortunately at 45.
You don't know before you get the treatment but you know on average that you'll benefit.
I'd go for it.
If I'm older than 40 and have known organ failure type risks (liver and heart are common), then it would be a "no brainer".
I felt sort that way about smoking* until I was in my late 30's then I tried a high quality cigar on a whim on a beach trip. Sitting on the deck, sipping ruby port and smoking the cigar is one of my enduring pleasurable memories.
But every person is different. If you don't like them, then you don't like them.
*Mainly didn't see the point of drawing hot smoke into your lungs- could do that over a mesquite camp fire. I think I have less reaction to nicotine than natural smokers. The few cigars I have on my vacations haven't led to any cravings elsetimes.
Even jobs that could be done by a high school kid are being automated out of existence. A robot that can do them runs $15,000 a year.
We may be headed into a period where you won't be able to "learn how to do useful stuff" because productivity is so high that you won't be able to earn enough to eat as a poor inefficient human.
Can you make anything like a cell phone, nope. Can you stock and pull orders from a warehouse? Not in a few years- already hundreds of robots running human free warehouses now. Stock shelve at the grocery store or the walmart? Probably a decade from disappearing.
What happens when 30% of your workforce is "living on the street". Do you think they'll remain peaceful and just take it? How do you think they'll vote? For lower taxes on the wealthy?
What used to take 100 sales clerks to provide, can now be done by 0 sales clerks. What used to take 100 separate warehouses, now takes 0 warehouses (direct from vendor shipping).
Previously, those 100 sales clerks would have found other work, some might have retired, a few would have failed/died/turned to crime. The warehouses might have found other uses, or decayed (both happened).
I think this is a paradigm shift tho.
Most of the 100 sales clerks will not find other work. Jobs for manual labor type work are going away without replacements. Jobs on the top end (less manual) are also going away (offshoring).
I think we could see over 30% unemployment within 2 decades. That would have significant effects on what our society votes as "reasonable".
At one point it was modded troll so I highlighted it (and was beaten down with multiple redundant/offtopic mods).
Now it's been modded up so apparently others found it funny too. And it generated the aircraft carrier drag race side comment which is way cool (I facebooked that item!).
I'm willing to bleed off a bit of karma now and then to promote posts when I don't have any mod points.
They already said based on the radiation levels and 600 million passengers that about 10 people per year will die from cancer from this screening.
I think the number is lower. Many will die from other causes first.
But say it is 10 and it stops 1 airplane incident per 10 years- it's a wash to a massive savings of life.
Personally, I can't see why the terrorist don't attack the security checkin next. You are not scanned, there is high density of targets, and it would paralyze travel-- again.
that's an odd mixture of sarcasm and irony and non-sarcasm btw.
I'm tired of getting ripped off by corporations where I pay $20 for a product sold for $2.50 in china and then that laborer (with 1/8th lower costs for anything not at the "world price") turns around and competes with me. And I'm legally forbidden from buying it for $2.50 in china and reimporting it for $3.00.
For example, you could pretty much ignore anyone with a fatal disease and probably half the men who would not die of it by 75 (since LD50 for me is 75).
--- Now, on top of those factors add a huge number of highly intelligent, well trained indians and chinese willing to work for $15k as well. So we lose jobs both at the bottom (due to automation) and the top (due to offshoring).
---
That's part of what makes this decline so ugly- if you have a job, you are fine. Once you lose it, replacing it is difficult. (I have friends with degrees, experience, and under 50 who have been unemployed over 2 years and a lot more who are scared it will happen to them).
I'm not sure how long it will be for truly intelligent machines (could never happen / be impossible without wetware).
But machines able to do our jobs are here now. And for a lot of jobs the annual cost is $15,000. Compare that to $32,000 (after benefits) for even minimum wage jobs and you have to think things get ugly soon.
Already diapers.com has "hundreds of robotic warehouse workers" (business week) and some hospital has "hired" 19 robotic workers *instead* of humans. It seems great as a cost savings measure at first-- but then you have to ask, long term, how do people get even a single dollar to afford the less expensive hospital?
Seriously, we could be looking at 50% unemployment in 20 years. It will be concentrated on the low end. How do we handle that as a society? If we don't, it is going to get violent.
What currently produces more taxes? A robotic factory making a billion a year with 3 human owner/managers or a human factory with 500 workers and 3 owner/managers that makes the same amount? Substantially lower sales tax, use tax, home property taxes, school taxes, etc. from the first. States will be hurting unless they institute income taxes.
You know, I think it would be great if the executives were forced to move to china, india, and singapore.
If they want to live under those rules and are subject to those restrictions and risk, then fine by me.
They are actively destroying their host countries at this point. Stop letting their executives live under one set of rules while they try to have their workers under another set of rules.
The mistake people make is they think twitter or face book (etc.) is like talking to your 3 best friends at the local pub.
Then they broadcast it to thousands (millions?) of people.
To me both this and the linked articles were CLEARLY jokes. I can't believe the asshat of a judge in the "blow up the airport" joke.
But.. people do get fired for saying something dumb and then hit "reply all" to the corporate mailing list.
I think the line should be clear for twitter that it's like standing on a building shouting these things with a bullhorn. It bothers me more when changing privacy rules move the line after you said something.
A couple months ago we heard how game stores were using used games to cut the publishers out of the revenue stream for a game. They were buying back games for $10 and reselling them for $45 and pocketing 100% of the $35.
There was a great brouhaha.
Now the return shot. Game publishers intent to cut game stores out of the first sale AND not publish any physical copies to resale.
When people went to school purely for learning, to become better, well rounded people, tuition was muuuuuch lower.
What purpose does a philosophy class serve if it costs you $10,000 (at an ivy league school) and doesn't raise your salary while a business based philosophy course would cost the same and improve your salary?
I took college for the "right" reason- not about money- it was about become a certain kind of person, honing my intellect, exposure to a lot of concepts and knowledge you don't get in high school, lots of formal logic classes. Because I took it that way, it took me longer to get out-- because my core and degree classes didn't require that many courses (I had 15 hours to play with- I took about 45 hours).
But college was cheap then- and 100% paid for by work (since it was cheap) as long as I had good grades.
Now, the feds offer tax money to help with college- the colleges realized they can increase the cost and the fed will increase the tax money. It's in a vicious upwards cycle right now.
The basic problem is that productivity has gotten so high that the people are not needed.
1) Isolation doesn't work if robots (that includes automated speaking help systems like at your credit card systems) are doing most the work.
2) Some traction here-- it addresses the labor being cheaper elsewhere because it's 12 years old or dying of lead poisoning or working 85 hour weeks.
3) In progress. This leads to "hell". This is the most likely path.
4) More education is pointless. The demand for educated workers is small. As you correctly point out, china AND india both have larger smart populations than the entire population of the united states.
Slashdot Mirror
Sterile in healthy people.
If the person has illness around that area (leaky colon, kidney infection), it may not be sterile.
But that is rare.
Looking at the star trek memory wall, there is a spike of cancer deaths in the 40's and a larger spike of heart attack deaths in the 60's.
LD50 for men is age 75. Women is higher (78?).
It's all about the odds. Say you went from 25% heart attack death to 10% cancer death and LD50 rose to age 80. And everyone had a 30 year old body until they died. Some until 95. Some, unfortunately at 45.
You don't know before you get the treatment but you know on average that you'll benefit.
I'd go for it.
If I'm older than 40 and have known organ failure type risks (liver and heart are common), then it would be a "no brainer".
I felt sort that way about smoking* until I was in my late 30's then I tried a high quality cigar on a whim on a beach trip. Sitting on the deck, sipping ruby port and smoking the cigar is one of my enduring pleasurable memories.
But every person is different. If you don't like them, then you don't like them.
*Mainly didn't see the point of drawing hot smoke into your lungs- could do that over a mesquite camp fire. I think I have less reaction to nicotine than natural smokers. The few cigars I have on my vacations haven't led to any cravings elsetimes.
Then you've never had a $10 to $12 cigar.
I have two to three a year. They are fantastic. Better than chocolate.
When you have a fine cigar, you finally understand why the hell people went so crazy over tobacco. They just taste nummy.
Even jobs that could be done by a high school kid are being automated out of existence. A robot that can do them runs $15,000 a year.
We may be headed into a period where you won't be able to "learn how to do useful stuff" because productivity is so high that you won't be able to earn enough to eat as a poor inefficient human.
Can you make anything like a cell phone, nope. Can you stock and pull orders from a warehouse? Not in a few years- already hundreds of robots running human free warehouses now. Stock shelve at the grocery store or the walmart? Probably a decade from disappearing.
What happens when 30% of your workforce is "living on the street". Do you think they'll remain peaceful and just take it?
How do you think they'll vote? For lower taxes on the wealthy?
It's about efficiency gains.
What used to take 100 sales clerks to provide, can now be done by 0 sales clerks.
What used to take 100 separate warehouses, now takes 0 warehouses (direct from vendor shipping).
Previously, those 100 sales clerks would have found other work, some might have retired, a few would have failed/died/turned to crime.
The warehouses might have found other uses, or decayed (both happened).
I think this is a paradigm shift tho.
Most of the 100 sales clerks will not find other work. Jobs for manual labor type work are going away without replacements.
Jobs on the top end (less manual) are also going away (offshoring).
I think we could see over 30% unemployment within 2 decades. That would have significant effects on what our society votes as "reasonable".
At one point it was modded troll so I highlighted it (and was beaten down with multiple redundant/offtopic mods).
Now it's been modded up so apparently others found it funny too. And it generated the aircraft carrier drag race side comment which is way cool (I facebooked that item!).
I'm willing to bleed off a bit of karma now and then to promote posts when I don't have any mod points.
I mean it brother. with a capital W followed by a capital HOOSH and that spells WHOOSH my friend.
Apparently folks have no sense of humor today for jokes about flooring the pedal on a multi million ton vehicle.
This is gourd news for men with erectile disfunction!
They already said based on the radiation levels and 600 million passengers that about 10 people per year will die from cancer from this screening.
I think the number is lower. Many will die from other causes first.
But say it is 10 and it stops 1 airplane incident per 10 years- it's a wash to a massive savings of life.
Personally, I can't see why the terrorist don't attack the security checkin next. You are not scanned, there is high density of targets, and it would paralyze travel-- again.
Aye. Information wants to be free. ...
that's an odd mixture of sarcasm and irony and non-sarcasm btw.
I'm tired of getting ripped off by corporations where I pay $20 for a product sold for $2.50 in china and then that laborer (with 1/8th lower costs for anything not at the "world price") turns around and competes with me. And I'm legally forbidden from buying it for $2.50 in china and reimporting it for $3.00.
I'm for capitalism- but this isn't capitalism.
Ah! Cool.
What about dying from other causes?
For example, you could pretty much ignore anyone with a fatal disease and probably half the men who would not die of it by 75 (since LD50 for me is 75).
I understand that.
I think this one is different- a paradigm shift.
You say, "A machine that can replace farmers".
I'm saying, "A set of machines that can replace ANY physical labor."
Plus, since the 1990's they've been messing with unemployment numbers.
Real unemployment is now over 20%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
---
Now, on top of those factors add a huge number of highly intelligent, well trained indians and chinese willing to work for $15k as well.
So we lose jobs both at the bottom (due to automation) and the top (due to offshoring).
---
That's part of what makes this decline so ugly- if you have a job, you are fine. Once you lose it, replacing it is difficult. (I have friends with degrees, experience, and under 50 who have been unemployed over 2 years and a lot more who are scared it will happen to them).
Couldn't a complete lack of movement indicate the area is tightly locked up and it is going to break even more violently?
I thought the historical record showed periodic massive earthquakes every few hundred years. I'd put that over lack of ground movement.
And some years it would be 15 (14, 13?) while other years it would be 17 (18, 19?).
Some of those people would die other ways first too (heart attacks or an automobile accident most likely) before dying of skin cancer.
I'm not sure how long it will be for truly intelligent machines (could never happen / be impossible without wetware).
But machines able to do our jobs are here now. And for a lot of jobs the annual cost is $15,000. Compare that to $32,000 (after benefits) for even minimum wage jobs and you have to think things get ugly soon.
Already diapers.com has "hundreds of robotic warehouse workers" (business week) and some hospital has "hired" 19 robotic workers *instead* of humans. It seems great as a cost savings measure at first-- but then you have to ask, long term, how do people get even a single dollar to afford the less expensive hospital?
Seriously, we could be looking at 50% unemployment in 20 years. It will be concentrated on the low end. How do we handle that as a society? If we don't, it is going to get violent.
What currently produces more taxes? A robotic factory making a billion a year with 3 human owner/managers or a human factory with 500 workers and 3 owner/managers that makes the same amount?
Substantially lower sales tax, use tax, home property taxes, school taxes, etc. from the first. States will be hurting unless they institute income taxes.
You know, I think it would be great if the executives were forced to move to china, india, and singapore.
If they want to live under those rules and are subject to those restrictions and risk, then fine by me.
They are actively destroying their host countries at this point. Stop letting their executives live under one set of rules while they try to have their workers under another set of rules.
I hope they realize there is no real way to distinguish a google torrent search from a pirate bay torrent search.
On the other hand, actual hosting- might be trickier- just Youtube then.
.nt
The mistake people make is they think twitter or face book (etc.) is like talking to your 3 best friends at the local pub.
Then they broadcast it to thousands (millions?) of people.
To me both this and the linked articles were CLEARLY jokes.
I can't believe the asshat of a judge in the "blow up the airport" joke.
But.. people do get fired for saying something dumb and then hit "reply all" to the corporate mailing list.
I think the line should be clear for twitter that it's like standing on a building shouting these things with a bullhorn. It bothers me more when changing privacy rules move the line after you said something.
A couple months ago we heard how game stores were using used games to cut the publishers out of the revenue stream for a game. They were buying back games for $10 and reselling them for $45 and pocketing 100% of the $35.
There was a great brouhaha.
Now the return shot. Game publishers intent to cut game stores out of the first sale AND not publish any physical copies to resale.
Strange. I find them exciting.
I guess we are all different.
When people went to school purely for learning, to become better, well rounded people, tuition was muuuuuch lower.
What purpose does a philosophy class serve if it costs you $10,000 (at an ivy league school) and doesn't raise your salary while a business based philosophy course would cost the same and improve your salary?
I took college for the "right" reason- not about money- it was about become a certain kind of person, honing my intellect, exposure to a lot of concepts and knowledge you don't get in high school, lots of formal logic classes. Because I took it that way, it took me longer to get out-- because my core and degree classes didn't require that many courses (I had 15 hours to play with- I took about 45 hours).
But college was cheap then- and 100% paid for by work (since it was cheap) as long as I had good grades.
Now, the feds offer tax money to help with college- the colleges realized they can increase the cost and the fed will increase the tax money. It's in a vicious upwards cycle right now.
The basic problem is that productivity has gotten so high that the people are not needed.
1) Isolation doesn't work if robots (that includes automated speaking help systems like at your credit card systems) are doing most the work.
2) Some traction here-- it addresses the labor being cheaper elsewhere because it's 12 years old or dying of lead poisoning or working 85 hour weeks.
3) In progress. This leads to "hell". This is the most likely path.
4) More education is pointless. The demand for educated workers is small. As you correctly point out, china AND india both have larger smart populations than the entire population of the united states.