Domain: bls.gov
Stories and comments across the archive that link to bls.gov.
Comments · 1,395
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Re:Agreed
Most countries do a lot of things that are bad ideas. Our own country is one of them. "If France jumped off a bridge, would you jump, too?"
But, to reiterate my other points, let's look info from the 2007 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
65% of workers earning minimum wage work part time. No matter how high the minimum wage is, you're not going to support yourself with part-time work.
Half of people earning minimum are under 25. These earners are largely comprised of people being supported by someone else (high school student living with parents, college students in parents' basement) who do not have families to support.
Food service provides the largest chunk of these minimum wage jobs. But, these jobs generally aren't "minimum wage" in that a lot of them are tipped positions.
22% are married. A minimum wage job is a secondary source of income.
I can't find my dead-tree source, but it had an older statistic on how many people are stuck earning minimum wage for more than 1 year (very few). The 2.3% of all workers who earn minimum wage are not the same people year after year.
Doing some quick math - 50% live with parents, 22% live with spouse. This is why minimum wage is a terrible way to "keep you from being homeless and starving" - at most this describes only 28% of minimum wage earners.
Minimum wage does not work. The overwhelming majority of people earning it are not impoverished. If the goal is to help prevent starvation, fixing the food stamps program would be a better use of our congresscritter's time.
Interesting tidbit: 3% of people without a high school diploma or GED earn minimum wage. 2% of people with a high school diploma earn minimum wage. 1% of people with a college diploma earn minimum. (I suspect these are English majors ^.^) If the college educated are three times less likely to earn minimum wage, maybe we could look at reforming our public education system and at further subsidization of student loans.
But, the point of my rant: Minimum wage does very little to help the impoverished. Better ways to fight poverty are improving education (which is harder than pulling a $number out of your arse!) and focus on programs that do help the poor.
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Re:No.Oh really? Have you noticed the cost of fuel, health care and food prices over the last 5 years? You think the cost of fuel is driven by currency markets? It's scarcity (artificial or otherwise) and increased demand. If fuel were directly tied to currency, that would only account for it going from $1/gallon to $1.60/gallon... yet here it sits near $4. Food requires fuel to grow, and people are now even turning that into fuel. Plus, we grow a surplus of food in this country, so food is primarily dollar-based. Health care is rising at double digit annual rates. The gold standard wouldn't even touch this one. Doctors are paid in dollars, medicines made primarily with dollars, most equipment paid for in dollars. Foreign exchange rate isn't really a player here. Health care has many problems contributing to the high cost. First and foremost: people always demand "the best possible care", which is... guess what? Expensive. Most other countries don't have an MRI at every corner. Then there is liability insurance... doctors pay horrendous amounts of liability insurance. You also have government programs that have failed and driven costs up across the board. The "confused mind" is one that doesn't believe this counts as inflation. No, the "confused mind" is one that thinks that the costs of health care, food, or oil would be significantly impacted by going to the gold standard (again). It's not in dispute that inflation would be reduced. But so what? Wages and prices all go up together. Meanwhile, the cost of those commodities RELATIVE to gold IS more or less stable. Even a cursory look at historical prices would tell you this is not true. Take a look at the 20-year graph on this page. Now run over and look at the graph on this report, specifically the cost of health insurance over the same time period.
Do these graphs have the same shape? Do they look at all alike? No. All of the gold cost increase has come in the last 5 years, whereas the health care cost is a nice linear line extending all the way back to the 60s.
How about oil, then? Here's a graph showing historic oil prices. Unlike health care, the graph has a very similar shape to the rise in gold prices. However, the magnitude of the price increase is more than 3 times greater than the price increase of gold. In other words, oil still would be expensive.
Food. That is your next point of contention. Go here and run some searches on the same time period for different food prices. The only one that I could find with a correlation to gold prices was "eggs". Cue "golden egg" joke. So what lessons from economics or history suggest that it's a bad idea to keep the cost of basic necessities relatively constant? That's a grand idea... cheap necessities for all. The problem is that it doesn't jibe with history. Food and fuel prices have never been stable, not even when we were on the gold standard.
Putting us on a gold standard would make gold expensive again, and pretty much wipe out its use as an industrial commodity. It's completely arbitrary as a standard, too. Why not pick something else?
Most importantly, why not just legislate the monetary policy instead of basing the currency on an arbitrary element? Gold was picked because it is shiny and pretty and fairly rare - a very strange criteria for a currency standard, and one that should have your geek-senses tingling for a more scientific reason. Of course, the environmental consequences of digging for the now artificially-inflated price of gold are pretty horrendous as well. -
Ad hominem
Asshats!
Though you didn't imply that copyright law needs to change because the RIAA are asshats, the entire theme of this post did. So I would like to challenge that directly.
1) The RIAA claims that we need to strictly enforce copyright law (and charge per copy) in order to ensure that artists get paid and continue making music.
2) The RIAA are asshats.
Therefore: we don't need copyright law (and strict enforcement) in order to ensure that artists get paid and continue making music.
This is an example of the "ad hominem" logical fallacy. Yes, they are asshats, but that has no bearing on the arguments they use to defend their business model.
I would summarize their position as a variant of the Hypothetical Syllogism (I am adding more premises than allowed, for brevity).
1) If we do not have strict interpretation and enforcement of copyright law, then people will be able to get an artists work for free.
2) If people can get an artists work for free, then most people will.
3) If most people get an artists work for free, then artists will not be able to make enough money to sustain themselves.
4) If artists cannot make enough money to sustain themselves, then they will have no economic incentive to produce music.
5) If artists have no economic incentive to produce music, then they will not make music.
Therefore: in order for there to be music (which we obviously want), there must be strict enforcement of copyright law.
To the best of my knowledge, that is the line of reasoning being advocated, and it should therefore be logically attacked.
I would specifically (and individually) attack premises 3, 4, and 5. According to the US Department of Labor most musicians work part time (already can't sustain themselves but work anyway) and also many of them earn money through live performances (monetizing their work even though free music is presently available). So my attacks, specifically, are:
3) Artists can still monetize their work, through live performances, merchandising, and alternative business models.
4) Even the lesser gains of part time employment or low-income alternative business models qualify as economic incentive.
5) Some artists produce music for the love of producing music, and think of compensation only after the fact.
So there you have it. In a nutshell I would say that we should at least experiment with the alternative business models, and see how they pan out. If all artists stop making music and America starts to experience cultural starvation, we can always reintroduce strict copyright enforcement later on...and then with much more universal support. As it stands, we are unwilling to even try, largely as a result of irrational argumentation (and, of course, a few wealthy/powerful entities who stand to benefit from our irrational behavior).
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Re:Well played Mr. Gates, well played.
The link you cite is again bogus as this reflects the cost to employers rather than salary, which is the original poster's issue.
Mean computer programmer salary:
$67,400 in May 2005
$69,500 in May 2006
This is an annual increase of 3.11%, which is lower than inflation of 3.39% in 2005 and 3.24% in 2006. So in some meaningless sense wages did rise, but in the meaningful sense of buying anything, wages went down.
You still have not addressed my question regarding the relevance of rising wages to the visa.
That said, I agree with the sentiment of your original comment. -
Re:Well played Mr. Gates, well played.
The link you cite is again bogus as this reflects the cost to employers rather than salary, which is the original poster's issue.
Mean computer programmer salary:
$67,400 in May 2005
$69,500 in May 2006
This is an annual increase of 3.11%, which is lower than inflation of 3.39% in 2005 and 3.24% in 2006. So in some meaningless sense wages did rise, but in the meaningful sense of buying anything, wages went down.
You still have not addressed my question regarding the relevance of rising wages to the visa.
That said, I agree with the sentiment of your original comment. -
Re:Well played Mr. Gates, well played.
sorry mistake, it's even MORE obvious. look on the front page for details on 3 month movments. http://www.bls.gov/ncs/ect/home.htm
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Re:Well played Mr. Gates, well played.your whinging because you might not get a 6 figure salary? cry me a fucking river asshole!
show me some proof that hb-1 visa's have resulted in pay cuts, because i keep hearing people running their mouths about it but when i look at http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm all i see are rising wages.
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Re:Deeper Downside?On the contrary, "unemployment" only counts those people who are still "actively looking" for jobs. Well, then look at the labor force participation rate, which seems to be what you're after. Trade has been going up for decades, but the overall labor force participation rate has improved.
It doesn't count people like my father, who got laid off in February 2007, gave up looking last Fall, and now calls himself "retired" even though he hadn't intended to retire yet and doesn't have as much money as he wanted saved up.
I don't know anything about your father's situation, but the general problem faced by older workers has little to do with trade. The main issue there is that they grew up in a time when you got a job early and expected to stay in that company for life, getting paid a little bit more each year until you retired. When your father started work, an employer was a community as much as a business.
Now that has changed. These days, you're employable as long as you have beneficial skills at a good price. If the performance of older workers is lower than younger ones (either due to aging or the whippersnappers having more relevant training), then a lot of companies expect to pay them less. A lot of older workers don't like the idea, and prefer to take early retirement than to get paid less than somebody younger.
According to Krugman, this started to change with the corporate raiders in the 80s, who could restructure a company and fire all those people they saw as overpaid, and not worry about keeping people on to 65. A number of other factors have reinforced that change, so that any younger person I know would laugh if you suggested they find a life-long employer. They expect to be changing jobs with some frequency up until they retire.
people who used to be making $75K/year as white-collar workers, and now flip burgers at Mickey D's. And that particular statistic, I believe, has gone way up.
I'd love to see a reliable statistic for that. If you find one, let me know. -
Re:Actually, it really does make senseUnemployment numbers have inched up, but are still only around 5.1% (something much of the world would love to have). U-6 is at 9.3%, and even that undercounts people. The official number used for press releases is spin.
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Don't become a programmerTry to become a computer software engineer.
Job prospects should be excellent, as computer software engineers are expected to be among the fastest-growing occupations through the year 2016.
http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos267.htm
There's no future for programmers.Employment of computer programmers is expected to decline slowly
http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos110.htm
Given that the qualifications for both jobs are virtually identical ... I leave it to you as an exercise to figure out how to become one rather than the other. What seems obvious is that there isn't much future as a code monkey. -
Don't become a programmerTry to become a computer software engineer.
Job prospects should be excellent, as computer software engineers are expected to be among the fastest-growing occupations through the year 2016.
http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos267.htm
There's no future for programmers.Employment of computer programmers is expected to decline slowly
http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos110.htm
Given that the qualifications for both jobs are virtually identical ... I leave it to you as an exercise to figure out how to become one rather than the other. What seems obvious is that there isn't much future as a code monkey. -
Mod parent wrong
Real inflation (not the CPI bs that the government hands out every year, which excludes stuff like fuel)
CPI includes energy:
"The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs,
and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living."
You may be getting confused by the "core CPI" measure, which does indeed exclude food and energy. CPI, though, includes every type of energy you'd typically use, explicitly including electricity, heating oil, (natural) gas, propane, kerosene, firewood, gasoline, and non-gas motor fuel.
All tolled, energy accounts for about 10% of CPI in the US. -
Mod parent wrong
Real inflation (not the CPI bs that the government hands out every year, which excludes stuff like fuel)
CPI includes energy:
"The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs,
and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living."
You may be getting confused by the "core CPI" measure, which does indeed exclude food and energy. CPI, though, includes every type of energy you'd typically use, explicitly including electricity, heating oil, (natural) gas, propane, kerosene, firewood, gasoline, and non-gas motor fuel.
All tolled, energy accounts for about 10% of CPI in the US. -
Re:Understatement of the year...
There's no real difference between Democrats and Republicans. There is no voice of dissent in American media. Issues that are important are simply left out of the discussion entirely. (Example: how many civilians should we be allowed to kill rather than should be we killing civilians in the first place?)
The media is smart enough to know the answer is something you wouldn't like. The answer for a lot of people would be that, we obviously haven't killed enough.
From 2000 through 2005, U.S. multinationals eliminated 2.1 million jobs at home while adding 784,000 to their payrolls abroad, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis." -USAToday
It's overwhelmingly automation. http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2004/mar/wk5/art01.htm "US had highest productivity gains in manufacturing." Have you ever built anything? Just look at how a factory floor is today versus a decade ago. Nowadays instead of lathes and saws and a wide variety of cutting tools, you have a big honking laser CNC cutter that just lasers the part out, with no operator invention. That's dozens of jobs right there.
And, look at how customer service used to be done, with hoards of people and paper files and multipart copies. Nowadays, thanks to people like us, all of those people no longer have jobs. Yes, if you are in computer science, you can't escape your own role in throwing people out of work. Every programming contract we get is to throw somebody else out of work.
Irregardless, let's approach the situation from your point of view. Let's assume that we follow the funding to the source, and bomb the country responsible. (Never mind the argument that we have no legal right to do so under international law.)
We have every right to do so under international law. Besides, what sovereign right does the United Nations have over me? Or some institution in Europe? That's just absurd.
If we follow your logic, which countries do we declare war on?
We don't have to declare war, just reserve the right to bomb or otherwise destroy any nation that harbors terrorists that attack the USA.
How many neighbors of "terrorists" have to die before we stop bombing, or do we just kill civilians in perpetuity for the actions of a non-government organization?
There's no such thing as civilians, in war.
Why did we invade Iraq and not Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or maintain enough troops in Afghanistan and bring security to the entire country instead of just the capital?
You know, I never thought of that before. Wow, we really should bomb Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Afghanistan is useless. We should have just nuked Kandahar and focused on Iraq. -
Re:Sad day
That won't even keep pace with inflation. Real inflation (not the CPI bs that the government hands out every year, which excludes stuff like fuel) is running between 10% and 12%.
The CPI is released in several forms. It's usually reported in the news as either the overall CPI index (which includes food and energy), or the CPI less food and energy (sometimes referred to as the "cold and hungry" CPI). Neither is anywhere close to 10-12%. See for yourself. Overall inflation, at an annual rate, based on the last 3 months is 3.4%. Based on the last 12 months, it's 4.4%. Without food and energy, these numbers are 2.4% and 2.3%. Inflation is up from its relatively low values in the last couple of decades, but still far away from the early 80s. Also, many economists believe that the CPI in fact overstates inflation. Why? People will substitute from goods which became relatively more expensive to those which haven't. To the extent that the basket of goods that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to calculate CPI doesn't take this into account, it will make inflation seem larger than the average person will really feel.
The CPI is supposed to measure what typical households buy, but if you can only pick one rate of "inflation", it's usually the most reasonable. Even if you were to argue that NASA spends a great deal of its budget on fuel (which I highly, highly doubt), that fuel is not directly petroleum-based. The solid rockets are based on ammonium percholorate (according to this). The shuttle itself has engines based off of liquid hydrogen and oxygen. -
Starting salary should be $195kThe only starting salary chart I could quickly find on Google is for Math PhDs. For full-year teaching/research, the starting salary in 1965 was $10,400 and in 2000 was $51,000. To adjust for inflation, I use official CPI values until 1988, and shadowstats.com after that, which computes the CPI according to pre-Greenspan forumlas. Eyeballing the inflation rate for each year from the chart at shadowstats.com and plugging those numbers into Excel, I get that inflation from 1988 to 2008 was 502% (i.e. 5x). Using the official BLS calculator, inflation from 1965 to 1988 was 390% (i.e. 3.9x). Taking these together, we get that the 2008 starting salary for a Math PhD should be $195k, adjusting for inflation from 1965. Not for someone experienced. Starting salary.
No wonder Gen Y is cynical about salaries.
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Re:Has the job market for CS grads changed?I think you also have to compare the quality of the education between the US universities and those in other countries (the country you seem to be spotlighting is India, due to the $5 an hour salary). I think a CS degree is something more than worthwhile for an intelligent and ambitious American, that is, I believe a B.S. degree is more worthwhile than a B.A. degree. Also, you have to look at the intentions of the people pursuing these, I don't think there is anything more worthwhile if the person is motivated by the research and programming and the notion of innovation in and of itself, as opposed to the prospect of higher salaries. Also, there is a large boom in the job prospects, especially in the realm of software engineers: "Employment of computer software engineers is projected to increase by 38 percent over the 2006 to 2016 period, which is much faster than the average for all occupations. This occupation will generate about 324,000 new jobs, over the projections decade, one of the largest employment increases of any occupation..." taken from: http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos267.htm
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Re:And yet, the ISS gets a budget cut...how is a 2.9% rise in spending a cut?
Because 2.9% is lower than inflation. Duh! Wanker.
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Re:No MoneyLet's see some source for that, can we? If you want to continue spreading the myth that poor=stupid, then at least paste a link. The only thing that differs is what people buy impulsively. Rich people impulse buys cars, middle class people fancy clothes and poor people tickets to the movies. Poor != stupid. Poor = low income vs high expenditure which => stupid.
This (table 2) shows the very lowest income bracket spends more on random things then the two brackets above it. While the other demographics seem proportionate to their income with some skewing due to the cost of living. The literature about IQ and income clearly suggest a correlation with many other factors included and sibling studies suggest Intelligence correlates with income as well. So Poor = stupid may be ham fisted but it's well supported. Note correlation isn't causation and there is ample opportunity for outliers. -
Re:Oh, spare me.And yet a lot of these preserves and stuff are near largely populated areas. Hmm.. Well if it makes sense in your world, I guess it offers a windows into how you think.
Actually
... I did some research on this just to confirm that the USA is the #1 as far as first world countries go (I thought that maybe Australia, Canada or New Zealand might be contenders, too). But instead, I found this:http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/env_are_und_pro-environment-areas-under-protection
Nationmaster is fairly accurate as far as I know.
The per-capita statistic is fairly interesting, too:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/env_are_und_pro_percap-areas-under-protection-per-capita
Pretty much all of them. Unless your going to claim a normal gas released by the act of humans breathing is something toxic, but look at who puts the most effort in it?
Um
... carbon dioxide ? That's fairly toxic. Concentrations above 7% in the inhaled air will kill in a matter of minutes. That's very easy to verify and even less disputed than it being a greenhouse gas.The US has given Europe money to help clean their shit up in the past.
For example
... ?Yep, you have different numbers then I do. Maybe a cite would be worth it.
Here, for example:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/lab_une-labor-unemployment
That these numbers aren't pulled out of someone's ass can be cross-checked:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/home.htm
And most of that gain seems to be attributed to a negetive population growth.
I would contest that. The people who die aren't in the unemployment statistics anymore. In fact, the number of people who do have a job has increased:
They have done this by wrecking their economy and not growing as a population.
I hardly consider the economy over here wrecked. And about the growing thing, well, what's the government supposed to do about that ? Give people money for reproducing ? They're doing exactly that, and it's not working. And they can't exactly force people to have kids.
Ask yourself why the supposed answers that are going to fix the Problem seem to be more about giving money to poor countries then fixing the problem.
So that the "rich" countries realize that Earths atmosphere is not their personal dumping ground ? Because once it costs money to do so, they might get off their asses and start working on long-term solutions ?
But after you do, then ask yourself why, if this is a global problem and it is so bad that we need to force every country to work on fixing it even though only 37 or so of the 158 countries signed on to the Kyoto protocol have emissions limits imposed on them while it is being toughed as the FIX for Global warming, but seriously, ask yourself this important question and tell me wh
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Re:The engineering job meme hurts
Read this from the department of labor, http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos027.htm
Very insightful for any job industry you are getting into. -
Re:That would be meFor those of you who buy books regularly, do you really read them 3+ times? Or is there some other reason you do it instead of going to the library?
Sometimes I'll read books multiple times, and the probability that I do so increases with the time I've had a book. For example, I bought Heart of Darkness when I was 16, read it then, read it twice more for class in college, and then read it again recently. In addition, it's not unusual for me to mark up books as I'm reading them, or, occasionally, get them signed. Friends sometimes borrow them. There's also something to be said for efficiency: most books these days come from Amazon, where shipping is free over $25, most books are discounted 5 - 40% (usually 20 - 25%), and I can expend a minimal amount of finding them.
To be sure, I don't keep every book I buy, and the ones I don't keep either go back on Amazon or to the local thrift store. If you rarely reread books, you're correct that you don't have much to gain -- provided that you live near enough to a library to make it there. The bls says average wages in the U.S. are $19/hour or so; so if you spend an extra 30 or 40 minutes going there and back, you might be in effect spending as much as the value of the book just getting there and back.
A little of this analysis is philosophical, too: you think buying books a tremendous waste of money and paper; I think of them as, in part, showing a facet of my personality to visitors. Who's right? I'm not sure, but I read enough to have considered the issues.
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Re:A world without sleep
As far as society expecting more of people is concerned, I would think that people would try to out-compete each other in job performance as well as leisure activities. Imagine what an extra eight hours every single day could do for one's career (assuming that it didn't impact performance), and then think about what would happen if a few hundred thousand career-minded people thought of that. Society as a whole would shift toward longer work hours, and if the workers were salaried, compensation would likely not increase substantially. People would be doing more work for (proportionally) less pay, even if it took a few years, or even a generation, for the changes to occur.
Furthermore, if you're inclined to be skeptical, just think of what life used to be like before widespread cheap electric light was available - most people got at least nine hours of sleep - it was dark, there was little to do, and lighting was weak and expensive. Now, since economic and leisure activity is feasible 24 hours per day, the average American sleeps only about 7.6 hours per night (according to this government source), limited primarily by the biological necessity of sleep. If that necessity is removed (or at least obscured, as I suspect that this compound would do, since the functions of sleep are still poorly understood), sleep hours will correspondingly decrease, likely to near non-existence. -
Re:Or they could just stick with CDs
I do realize they still sell them, but are they $0.99 per song cheap?
I assume you're referring to 45's. Adjusting for inflation, $0.99 in 1979 (the year I bought the 45 of the song "Funkytown" at Woolco) would be, according the the BLS calculator, $2.87 today.Around 1990, there were CD singles. Granted, they were intended to be replacements for 12" maxi-singles and not 45s, but they were $5. And the record companies killed them because they thought CD singles were "too cheap" -- that they were canibalizing the sales of CD albums.
The expectation of paying $0.99 per song is not based upon historical price trends, but rather upon the expectation that music should be free or at least cheap, which in turn was caused by the record companies withholding digital sales until just a few years ago.
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Re:good riddance
The sad thing is, Kurt Vonnegut was right over 50 years ago when he predicted what life would be like the "future". Of course he made some errors, such as MBAs are the rich ones instead of engineering PhDs, and the obligatory mid 50's "massive vaccum tube supercomputer", but in general he was right on. In "Player Piano" most of humanity is either in the army or in the "Recreation and Reclamation", ie masses of unskilled laborers who dig ditches and whatnot. Really seems to describe the current situation in the US today quite well.
Really? The November 2007 statistics have about 154 million people in the US labor force, 147 million of them employed. 51 million are "management and professional". 36 million are "sales and office". 16 million are "Natural resources, construction, and maintenance" and 18 million are "Production, transportation, and material moving". The latter two are your blue collar occupations, but most of those are skilled, not unskilled. There are 78 million people over 16 officially not in the labor force, but of those only 4 million want a job. The military totals only about 1.5 million.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t10.htm
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea38.txt
http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/MILITARY/ms1.pdf -
Re:good riddance
The sad thing is, Kurt Vonnegut was right over 50 years ago when he predicted what life would be like the "future". Of course he made some errors, such as MBAs are the rich ones instead of engineering PhDs, and the obligatory mid 50's "massive vaccum tube supercomputer", but in general he was right on. In "Player Piano" most of humanity is either in the army or in the "Recreation and Reclamation", ie masses of unskilled laborers who dig ditches and whatnot. Really seems to describe the current situation in the US today quite well.
Really? The November 2007 statistics have about 154 million people in the US labor force, 147 million of them employed. 51 million are "management and professional". 36 million are "sales and office". 16 million are "Natural resources, construction, and maintenance" and 18 million are "Production, transportation, and material moving". The latter two are your blue collar occupations, but most of those are skilled, not unskilled. There are 78 million people over 16 officially not in the labor force, but of those only 4 million want a job. The military totals only about 1.5 million.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t10.htm
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea38.txt
http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/MILITARY/ms1.pdf -
Re:Next up: A lesson on the constitution
"I guess you didn't read my post or any of the information I linked."
No, I didn't read Woolf's book or listen to her speech. I've heard the arguments a dozen times before. You pick a few conditions leading up to Nazi Germany, then compare them to the current administration's policies. It's sloppily researched propaganda. See here:
http://www.amazon.com/review/product/1933392797/ref=cm_cr_dp_synop?_encoding=UTF8&sortBy=bySubmissionDateDescending#R28W0R1KUAZR0H
And here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy
"Germany was a parliamentary democracy, fairly liberal and very similar to the U.S. today."
No, it was pretty friggin far from the current state of the US. For one, unemployment in Germany was at a staggeringly high 30% in 1932. It's at about 4.5% in the US currently, trending down in the last four years. I bet if you do a little more research, you could find other, rather significant, ways 1930 Germany != 2000 USA. Unless, of course, you are only looking for similarities.
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref3
http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/GERunemployment.htm
"Since you mention the Constitution, there are laws being passed as we speak (already passed this year and proposed right now) that dismantle and subvert the constitution."
Laws cannot dismantle the constitution, only constitutional amendments can. Stupid laws get passed all the time, mainly to increase the power of the state over it's citizens. Welcome to 20th/21st century USA.
"But as a matter of fact, there are direct links between Hitler, Hitler's financier and Prescott Bush, our current president's grandfather."
That's nice, what does it have to do with anything?
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/genefall.html
More or less.
"Within a year you will hear this happen to an American blogger and many people will defend the action."
It happens all the time in all types of media. It doesn't matter as long as it's not the government suppressing speech. I can easily visit anarchist, communist, fascist, racist, theocratic, liberal, conservative, and UFO cult religion websites with impunity - where is the organized suppression of thought here? Then again, a lot of media outlets are making a heap of money skewering the Bush regime, maybe it's a conspiracy! :)
"Furthermore, the movement within the U.S. government has directly used tactics, imagery, phrases and ideas from fascist Germany in current times and it's directly related to the things that I'm talking about."
I'm not sure what "Movement" you are talking about, but the political tactics used by Germany have been around before Nietzsche and Machiavelli. I'm not saying it's right, but it certainly isn't a new development, or something indicating a swing toward fascism.
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/genefall.html
(Again)
"I call Bullshit on your pompous invocation of Godwin's law and ask that you at least dig around a bit before responding."
I did dig around and found that you are even more wrong than I originally thought. I suggest you link to websites that provide data to back your arguments, not to other people making the same argument as you.
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/authorit.html
I suggest you read Chomsky, he does some halfway decent research and uses citations, even if his conclusions are utterly wrong. -
Re:hmmm.
Lawyers in 2004 made a median of $94,930. The median programmer, by way of comparison, made $62,890. For net/sysadmins, the median is $58,190. The lowest median salary by specialty for doctors was $137,119. Surgeons made over $250,000, on the median. Computing and information systems managers made a median of $92,570.
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Re:hmmm.
Lawyers in 2004 made a median of $94,930. The median programmer, by way of comparison, made $62,890. For net/sysadmins, the median is $58,190. The lowest median salary by specialty for doctors was $137,119. Surgeons made over $250,000, on the median. Computing and information systems managers made a median of $92,570.
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Re:hmmm.
Lawyers in 2004 made a median of $94,930. The median programmer, by way of comparison, made $62,890. For net/sysadmins, the median is $58,190. The lowest median salary by specialty for doctors was $137,119. Surgeons made over $250,000, on the median. Computing and information systems managers made a median of $92,570.
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Re:hmmm.
Lawyers in 2004 made a median of $94,930. The median programmer, by way of comparison, made $62,890. For net/sysadmins, the median is $58,190. The lowest median salary by specialty for doctors was $137,119. Surgeons made over $250,000, on the median. Computing and information systems managers made a median of $92,570.
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Re:hmmm.
Lawyers in 2004 made a median of $94,930. The median programmer, by way of comparison, made $62,890. For net/sysadmins, the median is $58,190. The lowest median salary by specialty for doctors was $137,119. Surgeons made over $250,000, on the median. Computing and information systems managers made a median of $92,570.
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Re:hmmm.
Lawyers in 2004 made a median of $94,930. The median programmer, by way of comparison, made $62,890. For net/sysadmins, the median is $58,190. The lowest median salary by specialty for doctors was $137,119. Surgeons made over $250,000, on the median. Computing and information systems managers made a median of $92,570.
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Re:Inflammatory phrasing
You need to take economics again. Inflation is defined as a devaluation of currency, which can happen by either price increases or money supply increases, or both. When the talking heads on CNN talk about "inflation", though, they are usually referring to changes in the Consumer Price Index.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation -
Government bloat
The biggest problem here is that the Executive branch has all the agencies, and whenever the leftists win a bigger government vote all the extra people in the bigger government are at the Executive branch's disposal.
Congress has some support staff, as do the justices of the Supreme Court. There are roughly two million civilian personnel of the federal government outside the Postal Service. For 535 people or 9 people to hold responsible two million individuals who are neither elected by nor directly responsible to the people is a bit ludicrous. The sheer size of the Executive branch makes accountability and the notion of checks and balances pretty difficult, even with the 94 federal district courts involved.
The Judiciary simply must be larger or the Executive smaller in order for the people to be properly served by checks and balances. In fact, I'd say the Judiciary really needs to be larger and account for more of the federal budget simply in order to guarantee a speedy trial as the sixth amendment promises while not putting undue strain on the court to shorten previous trials. Perhaps civil cases could be heard by a separate set of judges in each district specializing in civil cases, but I digress.
In any case, I'd think the huge Executive branch, with its apparent penchant for shifting blame and covering things up, is much too large right now for the other branches to balance it enough.
Do we really need 2 million people to provide federal government services to 303 million citizens on top of all the 16 million state, county, and city personnel providing services as well? In 2000, 19 million or so people were government employees (it doesn't say whether that includes revenue-generating government agencies like the Post Service). That's over 6% of the population living on taxes and borrowed money who are not elected, or over 14% of the total work force. I fail to see how that is sustainable, let alone sufficiently kept in check by state and federal courts and legislatures. -
Re:Inflammatory phrasingUm, not like I want to defend cable companies and their pricing, but "93% in 10 years" is to my mind an inflammatory way of saying "an average of 6.7% per year over the last 10 years." Given that overall the consumer price index has averaged about a 3% increase per year over that period, cable prices are bad, but not as bad as the quote makes it sound. Then again, entire industries (credit cards, for example) owe their existence due to people's inability to compute compounded interest, so perhaps the wording should be no surprise. Of course, cable TV expenses are factored into that: http://www.bls.gov/cex/csx801p.pdf and are helping it out. Most of my "technology" related expenses have gone DOWN or stayed the same in the past ten years. In my experience, Internet access and cell phones have stayed the same, while computers, televisions, electronics, and land lines, have all gone down (even though they have improved). Cable keeps going up. It's so bad that everyone seems to offer "for a year" or "for 3 months" deals, sometimes disguised as a cell-phone-contract-like "commitment" when in fact its a teaser rate. Additionally rate structures are ridiculously biased to upsell the customer...for example, the analog "2-73" package that used to be universally $30 is now $55 after taxes with Comcast (Beaverton, Oregon). The higher end packages haven't gone up as much, but they're trying damn hard to make the consumer ask himself "why not get the top-of-the-line package, it's hardly any more expensive?"
I personally got sick enough of it to build a high-def MythTV at a cost of about $700 + $20/year for TV listings. The cost will be negated with 8 months of my previous cable TV bill, and the DVR is a far better item than the horribly unstable HD DVR the cable co gave me. The only downside is that I have to wait for cable-only TV shows to come out on DVD. -
Re:Well duhOil, gold and just about every commodity has seen large jumps in price over the past year. Core inflation is basically up 2.8 percent over the measurement last year, which discards food and oil prices. Food is up 4.8 percent and oil 5.3.
More importantly: Consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.0 percent in the third quarter of 2007, following increases in the first and second quarters at annual rates of 4.7 and 5.2 percent, Wages are sticky -- they take time to adjust to market forces, for a large number of reasons, including "IANAEconomist". This suggests to me that wages were partly up 5.5 percent because of inflation, and if the credit crunch hadn't had a large effect on the market, wages could have been down or stable compared to inflation. In other words, this report not news at all. If you're celebrating an increased wage of 5.5 percent, stop. -
Re:As a Member of the Y Generation
Nurses don't do too bad. Here in the Seattle area according to BLS they earn about $70K/year compared to $91K/year for programmers. If you think IT workers get no respect from management, ask nurses about how much respect they get from doctors.
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Re:In other news
The Bureau of Labor statistics, in particular their "100 Years of Consumer Spending" publication. Available here. (~500k PDF)
The graphs you want to look at are the "Expenditure Share for Non-Necessities" graphs for various regions (US generally is on p.11). It started off at a little over 20% just after WWI, and then climbed steadily and dramatically (30% after WWII, which was the real formation of the 'middle class' in the U.S., ~35% in 1960, ~40% in the early 70s) until you get to the current figure which is around 50%. Nationally, that's an all-time high.
If you look at particular areas, like New York City, there has been a small but significant hit in non-necessity spending since the mid-80s boom, probably due to increases in the cost of living due to increased rent. (But in all fairness, NYC is a lot nicer place to live now than it was then.) Spending in Boston also slumped slightly, probably for the same reason. So you get some regions that are probably feeling the pinch -- time to move.
Anyone who thought the 70s were some sort of picnic is looking at them through some seriously rose-colored glasses. The 70s were a time of instability, high unemployment (over 8%!), and out of control inflation. If people were buying things then, it's only because they knew that trying to save it was a waste of time.
It's more difficult to find good data that's correlated with income, but there are a few here and there; including this one from the Family Economics and Nutrition Review, which says flat out: "The data indicate that all household groups were better off in 1989-90 than they were in 1980-81, as measured by the amount and share of total expenditures on nonnecessities ("other")." So that would indicate that there hasn't been some sort of continuous slump from the 70s until today -- in the 80s things actually got better, and the 1980s weren't exactly known as a great period for the economy (certainly not compared to the 1990s).
In terms of cost-adjusted purchasing power (which the BLS estimates in the introduction to the big report above [1], as probably tripled in the last century), you'd be insane to want to live in any previous era, unless your metric for success is purely that of being on the same level as your neighbors. Yes, there were times when there was more income equality, but that's not necessarily an indicator of prosperity; you can still make more money, buy more, and have a better cost of living in a lower socioeconomic bracket today than you could in the past. Lower brackets haven't experienced the growth that higher ones have, but you'd be cutting off your nose to spite your face not to take advantage.
I think the major way the middle class has been 'squeezed' is that there are a lot of people there who traded up to the upper-class (with McMansions, cruise vacations, etc.) on credit, and probably quite a few people in the lower class who borrowed into middle class lifestyles (via shady mortgages) as well. And understandably, income inequality does create a social pressure to overspend. But now that the credit crunch is coming to an end, people living outside their means are going to have to find their way back to a better balance.
[1] "Between 1901 and 2003, the average U.S. household's income increased 67-fold, from $750 to $50,302. During the same period, household expenditures increased 53-fold, from $769 to $40,748. Equally dramatic is that the $40,748 would have bought more than $2,000 worth of goods in 1901 prices, indicating a tripling of purchasing power." -
Re:In other news
The Bureau of Labor statistics, in particular their "100 Years of Consumer Spending" publication. Available here. (~500k PDF)
The graphs you want to look at are the "Expenditure Share for Non-Necessities" graphs for various regions (US generally is on p.11). It started off at a little over 20% just after WWI, and then climbed steadily and dramatically (30% after WWII, which was the real formation of the 'middle class' in the U.S., ~35% in 1960, ~40% in the early 70s) until you get to the current figure which is around 50%. Nationally, that's an all-time high.
If you look at particular areas, like New York City, there has been a small but significant hit in non-necessity spending since the mid-80s boom, probably due to increases in the cost of living due to increased rent. (But in all fairness, NYC is a lot nicer place to live now than it was then.) Spending in Boston also slumped slightly, probably for the same reason. So you get some regions that are probably feeling the pinch -- time to move.
Anyone who thought the 70s were some sort of picnic is looking at them through some seriously rose-colored glasses. The 70s were a time of instability, high unemployment (over 8%!), and out of control inflation. If people were buying things then, it's only because they knew that trying to save it was a waste of time.
It's more difficult to find good data that's correlated with income, but there are a few here and there; including this one from the Family Economics and Nutrition Review, which says flat out: "The data indicate that all household groups were better off in 1989-90 than they were in 1980-81, as measured by the amount and share of total expenditures on nonnecessities ("other")." So that would indicate that there hasn't been some sort of continuous slump from the 70s until today -- in the 80s things actually got better, and the 1980s weren't exactly known as a great period for the economy (certainly not compared to the 1990s).
In terms of cost-adjusted purchasing power (which the BLS estimates in the introduction to the big report above [1], as probably tripled in the last century), you'd be insane to want to live in any previous era, unless your metric for success is purely that of being on the same level as your neighbors. Yes, there were times when there was more income equality, but that's not necessarily an indicator of prosperity; you can still make more money, buy more, and have a better cost of living in a lower socioeconomic bracket today than you could in the past. Lower brackets haven't experienced the growth that higher ones have, but you'd be cutting off your nose to spite your face not to take advantage.
I think the major way the middle class has been 'squeezed' is that there are a lot of people there who traded up to the upper-class (with McMansions, cruise vacations, etc.) on credit, and probably quite a few people in the lower class who borrowed into middle class lifestyles (via shady mortgages) as well. And understandably, income inequality does create a social pressure to overspend. But now that the credit crunch is coming to an end, people living outside their means are going to have to find their way back to a better balance.
[1] "Between 1901 and 2003, the average U.S. household's income increased 67-fold, from $750 to $50,302. During the same period, household expenditures increased 53-fold, from $769 to $40,748. Equally dramatic is that the $40,748 would have bought more than $2,000 worth of goods in 1901 prices, indicating a tripling of purchasing power." -
Re:Bias?
While I'm sure women do work as hard, I'm fairly sure the statistics show they do not work as long.
Here's a couple of citations for that:
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2007/jul/wk1/art01.htm
http://jada.ada.org/cgi/content/full/135/5/637 (specific to dentists)
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/infbrief/nsf06302/
I'm pretty sure there are a lot more, but there's some term for this I can't recall that would probably turn them up. -
Re:[OT] Re:Best of luck!
On the other hand, unemployment did go down signifigantly, to it's currently very low levels.
Just not as low as what it was when he took office.
Ok, they increased GDP and median income per household.
GDP usually increases (only six of the last fifty years decreased). In fact, in terms of year-2000 dollars, the GDP in the first five years of the Bush administration increased 14.4%. Pretty good...unless you compare it to the 20.4% of the first five years of the Clinton administration or the 18.4% of the first five years of the Reagan administration. But, hey, he beat the 11.4% of the four years of the Carter administration.
As for median household income, it's increased over the last two years but not over the last five.
Now if we had supported entitlement spending cuts, that would have been better.
Some measure of fiscal responsibility would be nice. Cutting taxes while waging war does not fall under that category.
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Re:oops typo
- Economy: taxes raises - At least Kennedy recognized that tax cuts increase Treasury coffers while simultaneously strengthen the economy - we have been at record low unemployment rates.
Really? The most recent rate is 4.7%. Even looking at the 4.6% rate for 2006 it is still higher than the 4.0% that Bill Clinton left Dubya with. - Forked Tongued: they speak out of both sides of their mouth; condemning the troops' work why 'claiming' to support them - this is only because of the lessons of how the Baby Boomer generation treated the troops during Vietnam - read: Clinton, Kerry, and their ilk
Kerry was one of the troops during Vietnam. He earned the right to say whatever he wants to about Vietnam because, unlike Dubya, he was there--as a volunteer--for two tours. - Downsizing: in the 1990's Clinton significantly reduced the size of our standing military, which leads me into the following:
That doesn't matter. Know why? Because Rumsfeld put fewer troops into Iraq than his commanders recommended. - They Love Defeat
I would argue that President Bush loves defeat. He must, because his strategy in Iraq has done everything to encourage defeat. - Power: they love it and will do any thing to get to it
Yes, unlike Republicans. (rolls eyes) You must be new around here. - Politics and Party: because they lust after Power they will put their Party first
See above.
- Economy: taxes raises - At least Kennedy recognized that tax cuts increase Treasury coffers while simultaneously strengthen the economy - we have been at record low unemployment rates.
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Re:Housing up 50% & Salaries up only 11% = !SaI know the parent says "the US has been lying" which is always popular with mods, but can someone verify that the poster just isn't making all this up? For instance, according to the US Dept of Labor,
It should be noted that the hedonic quality adjustments regarding chip speed were deemed unreliable and were never applied to CPI data.
I know, I know, they are probably lying. So is there any independent semi-credible source that says that hedonic adjustments were applied to ghz the way the poster says? Clearly the cost of computers is decreasing, presumably this needs to be measured in some way.
Also, can anyone find a source also that energy has been taken out of the consumer price index? Both the US government and wikipedia say energy is part of the Consumer Price Index. -
Re:Housing up 50% & Salaries up only 11% = !Sa
According to the US Dept of Labor the Consumer Price Index includes medical care, gasoline, fuel oil, housing, and education including college tuition. I think this covers your (1), (2), (5), and (6). Dollar deflation (4) is also covered to the extent that Americans buy imported goods which are now more expensive.
You are right that general income taxes (3) are not included in the CPI. To the extent the US government must raise taxes to cover the wars they are in, Americans' net incomes will be lower, but this will not count as inflation. -
Re:Freefall....
The CPI excludes stocks, bonds, and real estate
:) Rent is included, and as you may have noticed the uptick in real estate prices have not been matched by a similarly large increase in rental prices.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/homch17.pdf
Here is a graph of the CPI:
http://www.inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Annual_Inflation/annual_inflation_chart.htm
US inflation has remained around 3% since the 1990s. Information on how the BLS computes the CPI is here:
http://www.bls.gov/bls/inflation.htm
While things like gas are up, other things (like the Department Store Inventory Price Index) is down over 10 years. Clothing is cheap, computers are cheap, etc. -
Re:Freefall....
The CPI excludes stocks, bonds, and real estate
:) Rent is included, and as you may have noticed the uptick in real estate prices have not been matched by a similarly large increase in rental prices.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/homch17.pdf
Here is a graph of the CPI:
http://www.inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Annual_Inflation/annual_inflation_chart.htm
US inflation has remained around 3% since the 1990s. Information on how the BLS computes the CPI is here:
http://www.bls.gov/bls/inflation.htm
While things like gas are up, other things (like the Department Store Inventory Price Index) is down over 10 years. Clothing is cheap, computers are cheap, etc. -
Re:Only USD
That's nonsense. You're mixing up currency fluctuations with inflation. Go use the handy inflation calculator courtesy of Uncle Sam to find out that $100 in 2002 has the same buying power as $115 today. Now, you can argue about how governments calculate inflation or even what inflation is, but it's definitely not that high.
Fact is the OLPC missed its $100 target a long time ago. There were a couple of "sacred cows" that were enormously expensive resource wise and which they raised the specs to accomodate instead of sacrificing them. I'm talking about Gecko and Python - both of which gobble resources, especially memory, like there's no tomorrow. They already doubled the memory capacity of the laptop and who knows how the final thing will perform, they're still making major changes to the hardware. There are lighter tools that could have been used, but some of them are proprietary or ugly so they were cast aside (for instance, WebKit/Opera and C++).
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Re:Job Growth Doesn't Answer ThisYou are a fool to choose a career that doesn't interest you. Pick something you love, and you'll be happy. And as far as money is concerned, if you actually enjoy it, it will show in your work and you will be sought after. Pick "something you love"? That usually ends up being your spouse and your children, and once they come first then making a living (money) comes first. Sure, if you plan to lead a single life and don't care about your own well being, then pick something you love irrespective of income potential. Otherwise pick someone you love and something you are good at that can pay the bills.
You can have a hobby and sometimes your hobby will even become a lucrative thing. But you should go into anything with a full view of what it takes to be successful and how likely that is. Much better than projections about future employment, is to look at the previous trends and current job situation. See where the jobs are and what the trends have been the last few years. Doesn't mean the trend will continue, but it is a good place to start planning. -
Re:I'm not surprised.
And what percentage is that of the average wage?
The average wage in Vietnam is $700/year [1] while in the US it is $36,764/year [2].
I'm not even going to bother with calculations. I think the point is clear: You're not really comparing apples to apples there.
[1] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5301086.stm
[2] http://www.bls.gov/cew/state2002.txt