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USGS simply can't predict when eruptions of the magnitude that you are talking about will occur. So they are never going to say something as alarmist as "Yellowstone is due to erupt". To draw that conclusion from a mere three data points was extremely irresponsible of whatever journalist was the source of this meme. In fact USGS says this about Yellowstone's potential for a catastrophic eruption (ref)

Thanks for the link. However I'm left wondering how much this was affected by the Bush admin, who has been cited a number tymes for altering science they didn't agree with even though they didn't have the qualifications, suppressing it, or totally ignoring science.

What a shame. Heck, let's have supreme lea...errr, strong president then.

More info:

• http://www.edinros.ru/news.html?id=125194 (in Russian)
• http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2007/11/08/011.html
• http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/032b8382-8d6f-11dc-a398-0000779fd2ac.html

It sounds like he thought he was going to get the contracts but the NSA stuck it to him for not helping them spy. Now, the conspiracy theorist in me wants to believe that the NSA not only tanked the contracts, but also put the prosecutors on him to really make an example out of him.

http://archives.cnn.com/2002/EDUCATION/11/26/education.rankings.reut/index.html

Vietnam is nowhere to be found.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e75e94c0-5df7-11db-82d4-0000779e2340.html

Vietnam is significantly behind the US in every metric listed.

http://www.siteselection.com/ssinsider/snapshot/sf011210.htm

Again, Vietnam is nowhere to be found.

"It's not exactly PC to point it out but the average person from South Eastern country like Vietnam is light years ahead intellectually compared to the average Pakistani. Or for that matter the average American or English person."

I think that comment reflects your own education (or lack of) more than reality.

As to India or China "surpassing" the US, what does that mean? Surpassing the US in what? Manufacturing? Good! That's economic specialization that creates efficiencies for everyone. Not only is talk of "surpassing" mere economic scare-mongering (did we learn nothing from such silliness when the Japanese were supposed to "surpass us" in the 1980s? Where are the Japanese today? Economic stagnation), it makes erroneous straight-line projections that ignore very important long term considerations of demographics and other factors. The US economy will be a large and important factor in the global economy for the foreseeable future. But the global economy continues to grow and evolve and the US economy continues to change from its post-WWII dominance (unsurprising since it was the only intact industrial economy on the planet) to an important player in a dynamic specialized global economy.

I don't know, maybe I'm biased since I live in Europe, but calling whole of Europe a fringe movement doesn't sound fair to me.

Check out this recent survey from the Financial Times

"In a carefully stage-managed meeting in Beijing with a senior Chinese official, which, unusually, was open to the media, Thomas Debrowski, Mattel's executive vice-president for worldwide operations, read out a prepared text that played down the role of Chinese factories in the recalls."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/99b42156-683a-11dc-b475-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df-0000779e2340,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F99b42156-683a-11dc-b475-0000779fd2ac%2Cdwp_uuid%3D9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df-0000779e2340.html

So... Who needs who more?

Yeah, China will be on the moon before the USA.

Same deal, it's just a matter of geographic scale. US States tend to be on the same scale as European countries.

The EU is due to cap the roaming charges, and many providers have already started cutting the charges in anticipation of the cap. I pay 0.55 euro per minute roaming, which is a lot less than I used to pay and is just inside the cap of 0.49 euro +tax (12.5% in the UK): http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/81ea23c6-0913-11dc-a349-000b5df10621.html. If I step outside the EU, but still in Europe -- well, it depends where I go. If I go into Norway my roaming charges stay the same. If I go to Serbia they jump to 2.42 euro per minute

I smell someone making an argument to get a better deal.

Doubly suspicious since the family friendly Blockbuster Rental stores simply will be stocking mostly Blu-Ray.

"Paramount's move comes weeks after Blockbuster, the DVD rental chain, said it would stock more Blu-ray discs to cope with rising consumer demand."

From the article here;
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8569e16-4f61-11dc-b485- 0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=e8477cc4-c820-11db-b0dc-000b 5df10621.html

oh and this just in:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/80fa0a2c-49ef-11dc-9ffe-00 00779fd2ac.html

Let me quote an AT&T (SBC, so yes, this represents the Cingular side) executive for you on data:

From the Financial Times:
"We have to figure out who pays for this bigger and bigger IP network," said Mr Whitacre, who was in New York ahead of AT&T's annual presentation to investors and analysts on Tuesday. "We have to show a return on our investments.?

"I think the content providers should be paying for the use of the network, obviously not the piece from the customer to the network, which has already been paid for by the customer in Internet access fees, but for accessing the so-called Internet cloud.". . . . ."They might pass it on to their customers," he says of the fees that he wants to charge the sites.

How does this apply to wireless, and in particular, the iPhone?

Simple. A quote from Ed Whitacre's sucessor (Randall Stepheson, or RS: in the following interview) explains that. From Gigaom :
OM: AT&T is a fearsome company now, with a weight of its legacy. Any first day jitters?

RS: ... The new AT&T is wireless at the core in terms of great new handsets; in terms of enabling true anytime, anywhere mobility that our customers want and in terms of being innovative and service-oriented. If there are any jitters, it's from the excitement running through this company about our prospects.

OM: There are a lot of challenges facing the company. What do you think is the biggest challenge facing AT&T as a company and you personally?

RS: Our biggest challenge as a company is to ensure that our customers really understand what the new AT&T is all about. We are the most complete communications and entertainment provider for the way people live-and that starts with wireless. When people recognize that, we win. It's the same on the business side.

My personal challenge is to make sure that the pieces we've assembled-industry-leading wireless, TV, broadband, global operations and local service work together as smoothly and efficiently as possible.

OM: How vital is iPhone to your company? I have never seen AT&T push something so hard that wasn't developed internally. Why is that?

RS: The iPhone is a radically innovative new device and it only makes sense that AT&T and Apple would partner to bring it to market. This device is very important to us, it's important to Apple and it is going to do very well with customers. It also reinforces with consumers that AT&T is the place to turn for the latest in wireless devices and services.

How do I read this? AT&T feels that content providers (Google, Yahoo, AOL, CBS, etc . . .) should pay for each individual customer's access on a per-usage basis. AT&T also feels that wireless devices are the cornerstone of their future in ALL realms of connectivity, including business and entertainment.

It only follows naturally that being able to account for *every single packet* a customer uses is part of that billing strategy. You aren't going to be billed by AT&T on that basis; they're going to bill Google et al, and you'll get a bill from the content provider. Let me quote Whitacre again: They might pass it on to their customers," he says of the fees that he wants to charge the sites. .

Clear as day. If you don't see this coming a mile away, there's something wrong with you.

Bravo, that is pretty much how most people outside (and maybe/hopefully inside?) the US see the situation. BTW, I think that North Korea has missiles that can reach the US, may need a grain of salt with that article tho.

Employers in Europe are free to refuse smokers a job, confirming their status as the continent's last pariahs.

so if china does it it's shocking, i wonder what it'd be called if you yanks did it

China's destruction of an obsolete weather satellite, similar to past tests conducted by the US and the Soviet Union, exploits this failure. Both China and Russia have for years urged the US to agree to a ban on space weapons and the use of force against satellites, but the US refused to negotiate, instead announcing a policy last year that boldly asserts US national rights in space.

According to James M. Atkinson, a Massachusetts-based expert in counterintelligence who has advised the U.S. Congress on security issues, its not that hard to take remote control of a wireless phone. You do not have to have a strong technical background for someone to do this, he said Tuesday. They probably have a technically gifted kid who probably is in their neighborhood.

Frankly, I'm surprised this hasn't made it to a /. article yet.

Certainly Sony knows that the Wii is currently selling because of a combination of price and hype. Hype wasn't mentioned because the question Stringer was asked was about the PS3's price. You'll notice that Sony is trying to combat the hype problem elsewhere, like in their new blog.

BTW, here is a transcript of the interview in question. You'll also notice that Stringer did counterargue the idea that the Wii is selling better because it's more fun.

Rob

but getting in a car accident usually just leaves you with a sore neck

yet by your logic i should freak out every time i'm near the ocean, and never swim in it again, and constantly worry about getting eaten by a shark... but go ahead and drive dui, or drive while chatting on my cell phone, etc., without a second thought

come to think of it, this gives you the typical risk calculating profile of the average joe: unable to compute simple probability versus hysterical sensationalism. this is why people fear airplane rides, but have no problem getting on highways with teen drivers holding emotional conversations with their girlfriends, truckers hopped up on methamphetamine, soccer moms chatting on their cell phone and scolding their children in the rear view mirror, etc. airplane rides are orders of magnitude more safe than driving a car, but a car has the illusion of control: you're behind the steering wheel. on an airplane, you're helpless in your little seat, a piece of cargo. on the highway, even though you can't control the 100 assholes you drive by on a typical trip, you feel like you are safer: your hands on the steering wheel

it's psychological, this illusion, this inability to properly calculate real risk, warped as it is by your sense of control or lack thereof. it explains your weird scenario of men in black randomly framing you with random crimes, versus your relaxed attitude towards a company that can link your identity with your private searches. in one scenario, you feel like you are in control, typing away by choice at your computer, but with your government, you feel helpless in your ability to control a monolithic bureacracy seemingly above any accountability or reason in your paranoid b-level hollywood plot fantasies

the chance of your personal private searches being traced to your identity uniquely and sold and probed by a search engine is orders of magnitude higher than men in black suits deciding to abduct you and stick alien probes up your anus or whatever your paranoid imagination is full of

in other words, maybe you should worry about the damage to your privacy at the hands of google (likely, considering their publicly stated plans) than death at the hands of your government (much worse, but a couple of million times less likely, despite your regular diet of hollywood dreck)

Eric Schmidt, Google's chief executive, said gathering more personal data was a key way for Google to expand and the company believes that is the logical extension of its stated mission to organise the world's information.

Asked how Google might look in five years' time, Mr Schmidt said: "We are very early in the total information we have within Google. The algorithms will get better and we will get better at personalisation.

"The goal is to enable Google users to be able to ask the question such as 'What shall I do tomorrow?' and 'What job shall I take?'"

The race to accumulate the most comprehensive database of individual information has become the new battleground for search engines as it will allow the industry to offer far more personalised advertisements. These are the holy grail for the search industry, as such advertising would command higher rates.

Mr Schmidt told journalists in London: "We cannot even answer the most basic questions because we don't know enough about you. That is the most important aspect of Google's expansion."

Did anybody read the last line of the same article on http://www.ft.com/cms/s/51c32f3c-0efc-11dc-b444-00 0b5df10621.html and scratch their head?

"Microsoft is either going to have to support this or do something like it," says David Mitchell Smith

Seems to me that Google Gears is merely an answer to Microsoft's ActiveX techlology. This web-to-desktop link concept is not new. Google is guilty of what MS usually does.

1) Copy somebody else's successful idea.
2) Dump several million $$$ into it to integrate it tightly with their platform
3) Call it innovation.

I'm not sure about Safari, but as far as Opera goes, this article says that it supports it.

Very true. I just read an article about the world's most successful hedge fund manager (2006 compensation: $1.7 billion), who's a total math geek and hires the same. When you consider the essence of a lot of financial industries is extracting signals from gobs of noisy data, there are all sorts of applied scientists who would be a good fit. Astrophysicists, for example. Made me seriously consider going to grad school for applied math instead of econ.

And don't go into consulting. I've been there, and it sucks.

now we just need the microsoft google alliance and we can do anything!!!!1one

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c3e49548-088e-11dc-b11e-00 0b5df10621.html

That whole "give away so much that they cannot use all the Data" might have worked back when all was done by humans.

Nowdays, you just buy some more computers to do the datamining and cross-referencing. Dont worry, there are thousands of PHDs working at google to make 1984 a reality.

(Dont believe me? Take a look what googles CEO says here : http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c3e49548-088e-11dc-b11e-00 0b5df10621.html . In short, a quote: "The goal is to enable Google users to be able to ask the question such as 'What shall I do tomorrow?' and 'What job shall I take?'")

Well, if you want to know what Google's up to, just see what its two founders are currently talking about . They want to tell you the sort of job you'd be best suited to, and what they think you should do tomorrow. No sir, can't do THAT without Google. Point is, they're actually saying something far creepier than anything MS is saying, if you ask me.

It looks like MS is now going to copy everything that Google does. You know, just to stay ahead of the herd.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c3e49548-088e-11dc-b11e-00 0b5df10621.html

Of course, they will only use it for good.

Ah, but you see, the parties themselves aren't really all that big a problem, and in fact, help to maintain stability of the nation. Face it, there really isn't all that much difference in the long run between a Dem and a Rep (though at this time in history, they are sitting astride one of the greatest ideological gulfs they've ever come across). However, the dominance of these parties, while not to the letter a democratic design, help to maintain a relative consistency in the way the country functions. Just take a look at some of the emerging democracies elsewhere in the world where the outcome of an election may completely change how a country is perceived based upon the ideology of the winner. In the US, the parties keep things relatively status quo. Yes - things change much more slowly, but it TENDS to keep the extremes out of power.

Of course, there are those who would think something extreme might be fun. There are others who generally think whoever is in power is extremely against their own ideology.

Novelist Tom Wolfe said it very nicely,

• "The United States is so stable that political victories consist of minor variations. Our government is like a train on a track, and there are people on the right-hand side and on the left screaming at the train. But the train has no choice: it's on a track! It just keeps going. And it's really quite marvellous how stable that situation is. You can't suddenly have parliament deciding there has to be an election."

Blue lasers used in Ps3 are 405nm but they don't cost so much as the one above. According to financial times, the price dropped to Y3,000 (25USD) http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b0638092-8fc1-11db-9ba3-00 00779e2340.html They used to cost from $120 to $180 according to this ieee report http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar07/4988/2 "the GaN lasers in these units now account for 20 to 30 percent of the product's retail price of about $600" So there you go, a price fall of $90 to $150 in the cost of the blue laser diode.

However, Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, said he was "baffled" by the strength of the figures.

"The rise in the ISM index is impossible to square with either the regional surveys released over the past few weeks or our medium-term, yield-driven model," he said. "We think it is quite likely that in their next iterations the ISM will drop sharply."

Full article here

You really really don't want that to happen. Most likely, U.S. politics will end up being just like France's, where street protests are a normal part of politics, and where extermists can get quite far (e.g. Le Pen). Worse, you could end up with politics like Italy's or Israel's.

"you do know that 79% of the tax burden is carried by the top 20% of income earners, right?"

You mean those folks that hold the vast majority of the assets? Sure just cherry pick a single statistic from a single source and proclaim 'look what I know, you dip shits didn't know this did you, huh, huh?'. Look the issue here is just how out of balance things can get EITHER way before it breaks the system. The balance right now grossly favors those at the top of the economic food chain. If it continues to the point of breakdown just what do you think the fate of the top x% will be? In the end it is in everyones interest to not break the frickin system.

"Maybe for once we should stop being partisan"

Yea, thats rich, considering the drivel to from the "conservative" party I have listened with great restraint, and admittedly often with amusement, for most my life. Can you make a clear argument just using common sense instead of falling back on a single cherry picked statistic form BillO's list of "facts" to throw at a liberal---remember you have to use this word in with a dirty slur pretext or voice. Don't take this to mean I am a just another sheep in the Democratic flock, which in contrast to the Republican flock, is actually more like a herd of cats anyway. I will say I like many others are sick of the "good cop - bad cop" routine the two parties have used so successfully for so many years. So exactly whose drivel is it you like best? Oh thats right you like to quote the "fiducially conservative ones", hehehe, yea.

Wabi-Sabi
Matthew

read...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2 007/20070206/default.htm

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f5e905ce-69d8-11db-952e-00 00779e2340.html

http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/povert y_and_inequality/index.html

http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_da ta/wp_abstract.cfm?pubsID=732

http://multinationalmonitor.org/mm2003/03may/may03 interviewswolff.html

http://www.economist.com/world/displaystory.cfm?st ory_id=7055911

http://ideas.repec.org/a/ecj/econjl/v112y2002i478p c68-c73.htm

http://dollarsandsense.org/archives/2004/0704tilly .html

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/18995

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB11418244330 8492484.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/71954e1a-ad43-11da-9643-00 00779e2340,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http% 3A%2F%2Fnews.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F71954e1a-ad43-11da -9643-0000779e2340.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fne weconomist.blogs.com%2Fnew_economist%2Fpoverty_and _inequality%2Findex.html

http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/Research/wpaper.nsf/

"you do know that 79% of the tax burden is carried by the top 20% of income earners, right?"

You mean those folks that hold the vast majority of the assets? Sure just cherry pick a single statistic from a single source and proclaim 'look what I know, you dip shits didn't know this did you, huh, huh?'. Look the issue here is just how out of balance things can get EITHER way before it breaks the system. The balance right now grossly favors those at the top of the economic food chain. If it continues to the point of breakdown just what do you think the fate of the top x% will be? In the end it is in everyones interest to not break the frickin system.

"Maybe for once we should stop being partisan"

Yea, thats rich, considering the drivel to from the "conservative" party I have listened with great restraint, and admittedly often with amusement, for most my life. Can you make a clear argument just using common sense instead of falling back on a single cherry picked statistic form BillO's list of "facts" to throw at a liberal---remember you have to use this word in with a dirty slur pretext or voice. Don't take this to mean I am a just another sheep in the Democratic flock, which in contrast to the Republican flock, is actually more like a herd of cats anyway. I will say I like many others are sick of the "good cop - bad cop" routine the two parties have used so successfully for so many years. So exactly whose drivel is it you like best? Oh thats right you like to quote the "fiducially conservative ones", hehehe, yea.

Wabi-Sabi
Matthew

read...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2 007/20070206/default.htm

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f5e905ce-69d8-11db-952e-00 00779e2340.html

http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/povert y_and_inequality/index.html

http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_da ta/wp_abstract.cfm?pubsID=732

http://multinationalmonitor.org/mm2003/03may/may03 interviewswolff.html

http://www.economist.com/world/displaystory.cfm?st ory_id=7055911

http://ideas.repec.org/a/ecj/econjl/v112y2002i478p c68-c73.htm

http://dollarsandsense.org/archives/2004/0704tilly .html

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/18995

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB11418244330 8492484.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/71954e1a-ad43-11da-9643-00 00779e2340,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http% 3A%2F%2Fnews.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F71954e1a-ad43-11da -9643-0000779e2340.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fne weconomist.blogs.com%2Fnew_economist%2Fpoverty_and _inequality%2Findex.html

http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/Research/wpaper.nsf/

Hmm, fellas - think you've been scooped. By 1.5 years.

From FT, August 2005
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/89ea206a-13f3-11da-af53-00 000e2511c8.html

Here is a link to the original Financial Times article.

It's about fundamentals. And yes, I know a lot about the stock market (MBA/Finance, not to brag, just to back it up).

In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. In the long term, it is a weighing machine. .

This is a well known quote by both Ben Graham AND Warren Buffet.

What you describe is called "pumping" a stock. It's illegal and usually done on pink sheet stocks with low volumes. And it is most certainly not what the stock market is "COMPLETELY" about. Not even close. If you don't know that, then you don't know shit about the stock market so quit talking. Stick with the Mac comments.

The Financial Times cites an analyst that claims that not including HD-DVD is an acknowledgement by MS that Blu-ray will win the format war against HD-DVD.

Next we are going to have to send the sheep to public schools. And humans are going to complain that they are taking over our jobs.

Why waste his tax dollars educating a bunch of ungrateful Americans when other countries have more smart people than they know what to do with.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/473893dc-ccde-11db-a938-00 0b5df10621.html

My Dad reckoned there is nothing wrong with this country that a good hard depression would not cure.

...

It would be interesting for you to reconcile your post with reality. A higher standard of living, if you don't count Eastern Europe (so, can the US only count New England and California, and ignore some of those pesky poor states?). Europe has higher productivity, unless you count the hours worked, and higher income, unless you count the percentage employed. It's fine if you want to enjoy life, and don't want to drive the world economy, but don't act like you are doing both. Not that it matters much, as China and India will eclipse the West eventually. Speaking of Asia, if I were going to emulate a primary education system, it would be from there. They have some of the most efficient in the developed world. I'll keep the US university system though, as I'd say it's doing pretty well still, thank you very much.

Indeed, that is the danger. It should be noted too that there are reasons why the Nordic countries have been so succsessful with socialism. One, they are quite culturally homogenous, so one never feels that outsiders are leaching off of them. Two, they have a culture of cooperation brought about by extremes of climate. That's my theory, anyway.

While these factors may partially explain why Sweden and other Nordic countries have not crashed as spectacularly as other socialist movements (e.g., Germany, France, New Zealand, etc) to call their model a success would be to ignore its many current problems, its historic economic instability, and what is almost certainly a lack of sustainability of the model.

Sweden's real unemployment is estimated to be between 15 and 20%. Although their official stats count just ~6% as being unemployed, this excludes a lot of people on long-term sick leave (which count as being employed -- 16% of public spending pays for this!), welfare recipients, people that simply give up (e.g., students, early retirees, etc), etc.

What's more, many of those who are actually employed are employed by the government (about 30%). Sweden has created almost no new private sector jobs in 50 years. Only 1 of their 50 largest companies was created after 1970. Many of their biggest companies have left the country (e.g., IKEA) or moved their taxable entities outside recently. Despite having a large highly educated population, it is an unfriendly place for entrepreneurship and creates little of it due to labor laws (v. expensive to sack people), high taxation, very high sales taxes, etc.

Their tax revenues are significantly more than 50% of GDP (their middle class pay a much higher rate of tax than we do here). The Swedish people pay much higher taxes than we do across the board. They don't have a lot of wealthy people so they've been forced to raise taxes on the middle class to sustain these benefits. Some may try to excuse it as simply being a product of a welfare state, but it is a very real economic burden on their economy. For instance, their GDP per capita has fallen dramatically relative to the rest of the OECD since 1950.

Consider, for instance, that the difference in disposable income (after taxes and all social transfers) between the poorer 30 decile of income and the richest 80 decile is just 12K Krona per month (about $1500). This itself represents a small change in lifestyle but consider just how wide that gap is: the entire middle class (from poorest full-time working class and the upper middle class). There is very little incentive to work hard, to risk a stable job for a new one that might pay better, to take a new job if you get laid off (cushy benefits), to show up to work, to take a more stressful job, and to take business risks, etc. What has happened is that people are working less and less (and, ironically, many of those that want to work can't find it), taking more sick leave, etc. In fact, if you look at the number of hours worked in their economy it has fallen dramatically.

To further stress their system, Sweden's retirees is set to increase to roughly 54% of their working age people by 2050, i.e., 1 senior-pensioner for every ~2 working people (much of it happening soon). They've also acquired a significant number of foreign immigrants (many of them no longer of Nordic heritage) -- roughly 10% of the country now (who are heavily unemployed). The system is already showing signs of stress and tax payer unrest (at least 65B in overseas tax avoidance, rising non-market work, etc). Sweden an

You jest, but in fact North Korea has been reported to have a hacker and cyberwarfare unit with several hundred members, possibly many more. Given that NK has very little in the way of computer infrastructure, it's likely mostly designed for attack of their main enemies, SK, US and Japan.

Now, whether they have any talent is an open question, but the military seems to be about the only thing that works well there...

There is a precedent for this. Some people said the official inflation rate didn't reflect the true historical trends. So they invented the Mars Bar index.

http://specials.ft.com/nicocolchester/FT3XZDJSEIC. html