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A series of entries on my discovery of click fraud, how I detected it.
I'm planning to work it into a Defcon 15 submission.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/Weblo g?catname=%2FClickFraud

A model for understanding how and why memes propagate across the Internet. I originally intended this as a supplement to my Meme Miner tool, to validate its predictions, but it's coming in handy for other reasons.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =updated_ideospheric_sampling_model

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=linux_meme

My interpretation? In the United States, Linux is being marginalized as a specialty niche server. I didn't include the worldwide graphs, but Linux appears to have only a slightly better future. Predictably, Vista is ramping up and gaining mindshare and buzz.

Using meme theory to create a strategy for detecting click fraud -

http://www.realmeme.com/click

I was modifying my original Meme Miner to improve its prediction success and it stumbled upon anomalies which point to click fraud.

Imagine my surprise!

Zune's slow start was predictable in July.
I know that because I predicted it. :)

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =zune_meme_rerun

The link includes an updated diagram of my methodology.

Written almost two years ago -

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/bandwidth/index.jsp

The majority of software development will be in automated services which have little to do with human interaction.

It's hard to deduce what causes resistence to a meme, but it's easier to measure that there is a high or low resistence.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =zune_meme_rerun

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =linux_meme

The buzz factor of Linux has been falling for a couple of years.
The odds are good that this will reflect back into the actual adoption rate.

There's just no interest in Zune so far. The "Digg Fraud" campaign is the sort of thing I ws expecting when I wrote this entry -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =zune_meme_rerun

iPod has saturated its ecological niche, and Zune doesn't offer enough to break into iPod's space. Microsoft needs some inventive marketing.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =zune_meme_rerun

I was excited about IPv6 earlier this year when I read about U.S. military adoption. But I discovered that IPv6 has a history of false expectations and the buzz trend is still not positive.

From July 2006 -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=ipv6_meme_update

The odds are good that interest in linux has topped out and that Vista will retain the desktop title.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =linux_meme

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =linux_meme

My interpretation? In the United States, Linux is being marginalized as a specialty niche server. Predictably, Vista is ramping up and gaining mindshare and buzz.

The Linux curves seem clear, they're indicative of a product which has topped out.

The window for true desktop Linux has probably passed. General interest in Linux has been falling for the past couple of years.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =linux_meme

Microsoft's traditional marketing isn't working well.
Gee? What other ploys can Microsoft try?

Unfortunately, the mental bandwidth already belongs to iPod, it will be hard to dislodge them in favor of Zune.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =zune_meme_rerun

Zune is still going nowhere from a mindshare standpoint.
I'm tempted to call it Dead On Arrival.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =zune_meme_rerun

I'm still sceptical about IPv6. There's been too much optimism and too many false starts -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=ipv6_meme_update

The IT Market can be considered, in gesalt, as being subject to the S-curve with the year 2000-2001 ( the Dot Com Crash ) as its inflection point...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =evolution_of_the_it_market

What does it mean, really? That coding is a low-value activity and perilous to your economic health over the long run.

Social networking meme is peaking, the rate of change has topped out. Microsoft misses the boat again!

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=blog_rss_meme_update

I predicted a high growth curve for MythTV about 15 months ago. It's nice to see a prediction confirmed, growth rate is still high.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =mythtv_meme

There's no buzz about Zune. Microsoft will need a significant and unique advertising campaign to make this thing sell.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =apple_ipod_vs_microsoft_zune

As predicted back in May 2006, virtualization is a hot topic.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =virtualization_meme

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=virtualization_meme_ver_3_0

"Dejanews shows a sharp increase in virtualization at the end of 2005", first posted on May 15th, 2006

Interest in IpV6 has stagnated since 2001.

If the U.S. Government is about to push a major IpV6 initiative, there could be some money to be made here.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =ipv6_meme_flatlined_for_five

This memegraph shows a rapid increase in interest in virtualization since mid-2005 -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =virtualization_meme

Here's how VMWare and Microsoft stand in that increased interest.
VMWare shows a mild upturn while Microsoft shows a mild downturn.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =virtualization_meme_ver_3_0

This memegraph shows a rapid increase in interest in virtualization since mid-2005 -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =virtualization_meme

Here's how VMWare and Microsoft stand in that increased interest.
VMWare shows a mild upturn while Microsoft shows a mild downturn.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =virtualization_meme_ver_3_0

Virtualization meme has shown surprising strength in the past six months.

VMWare looks like it's taking the lead over Microsoft.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =virtualization_meme_ver_3_0

Check out the gradients for Blu-ray versus HD-DVD.

I've been following this battle for two years, but Blu-ray is finally pulling ahead with an accelerating gradient. It's a little too early to call the battle, but I now think that Blu-ray is the percentage bet.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =blu_ray_vs_hd_dvd

A brief primer on the politics of controlling messages to the general public.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =strategic_use_of_the_mixed

"Total information grows faster than human population (for now) and it's easily duplicated, so the finite space of each human skull gets a greater diversity of information than ever in history. If information is a prime driver of culture, then "cultural diffusion" should occur; mainstream culture should shrink as fringe cultures spawn and grow."

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =the_cultural_diffusion

"But from 1997 on, the trend reverses and shows a distribution pattern, a sell-off of mindshare in popular movies. The speculation is that the current movie sales malaise may have been predictable."

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=final_movie_meme_graph

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =the_cultural_diffusion

"mainstream culture should shrink as fringe cultures spawn and grow"

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =blog_meme

Rate of growth will peak and then slow.
Growth will carry forward for another two or three years and then decline.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =the_cultural_diffusion

"The result would be escalating costs expressed as information problems - miscommunication, cultural conflicts, etc.

Eventually, the net benefit of diversity should exceed its societal benefits and produce a big drop in the price of information as demand falls off"

BEHOLD! The Power of the Meme!

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/miner/stock.jsp?start up=http://www.realmeme.com:80/Main/miner/investmen t/AMZNDejanews.png

MythTV was one of my pre-inflection graphs / choices last year. It's still going strong. It's not the best graph I've ever seen, but there's clearly strength behind it.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/images/meme/mythTVD ejanews.png

Craiglist gave a false inflection point signal last January, but I think the new one is accurate.

http://www.realmeme.com:8080/roller/page/realmeme/ ?entry=craigslist_meme

In the near future, you should see considerably less of Craig in the news, possibly some rising complaints, like we see here at Slashdot.

Large IT departments have poorly designed feedback paths to guide their behavior -

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entr y=maggianos_versus_it_departments

Somebody needs to hire IT managers with restaurant management degrees.

"He's still dead, Jim!"

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =mono_meme_update_mono_still

I've been working with franchise movie memes for the past couple of weeks. Although they often show equal or higher sales, their actual audience interaction declines steadily with each successive movie.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =movie_madness_threedux

Essentially, I believe that the original movie sets a cultural context that successive movies play upon, and that each sequel is attractive to audiences BECAUSE it requires less thinking. It's interesting that sales often remain the same, even though there's less expressed interest.

That's a reworking of the idea of marginal utility in economics. Because the sequel costs less, it's equally desirable as its marginal utility falls.

Very interesting stuff that you can derive a lot of conjectures from.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry =mono_project_meme

No growth, no interest that I can see...

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/images/meme/monosof twareDejanews.png

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/miner/other/workDejan ews.png

"Still no clear winner"
"Try again"

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/images/meme/blurayv shddvdDejanews.png

Yahoo pulls ahead in second quarter of 2005, possibly because of "buy" strategy versus Google's "build" strategy. So is the purchase of AOL Google's "buy" response?

http://www.realmeme.com:8080/roller/page/realmeme? entry=google_versus_yahoo

Interesting graph comparison of the major search engines.

It shows Yahoo pulling ahead of Google in 2005, and the
search engine battle itself is peaking in hype and media interest.

Yahoo's emergence into first place could be a function of their social software acquisitions.

http://www.realmeme.com:8080/roller/page/realmeme? entry=google_versus_yahoo

http://www.realmeme.com:8080/roller/page/realmeme? entry=java_vs_lamp_vs_web

Rate of change clearly favors Web 2.0 right now,
while absolute numbers still favor java.

The delta between java and LAMP has opened up again,
indicating that in relative terms, LAMP may not be overtaking java.

The LAMP meme has been rising slowly but steadily for years now, which surprised me.

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/miner/technology/LAMP linuxDejanews.png

But the real move is that "Web 2.0" is rising rapidly, too, and will probably displace Java & J2EE as the primary job creator over the next two-three years.

http://www.realmeme.com/Main/miner/technology/ipv6 Dejanews.png

It will come faster and bigger than most readers here believe.

How Blogs fit into the big picture.

http://www.realmeme.com:8080/roller/page/realmeme? entry=context_ideosphere_the_internet