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Cell Phone Purchasing: Drop Down?
walnut writes: "There is an interesting story on CNET about the future of cell phones, how the major players Erricson, Motorola and Nokia are beginning to have to face the realization that new sales are quickly tapering off. How they will entice people to buy new phones is becoming a big question."
With the amount paid for the 3g licences, perhaps they do have something to worry about with the amount of subsidies on Mobile phones: have you seen the REAL price of a WAP phone, not the price you pay in the shops??? As phones get more complex the price for the Operators becomes more as they know they will not be able to get people to buy phones en masse at more than a certain level: WAP phones failed to sell well at first because they were over a hundred pounds perhaps... Not when 'everyone' knew that sooner or later you would be able to get one for free when signing up for a contract, which has already started happening, less than a year later.
Ok, I, unfortunately, have the job of selling these stupid devices, and I KNOW that people will always upgrade. They always want something smaller, something lighter, and something with longer battery life. As far as the sales for new customers go: Unless they start implanting a device in your head when you are born to make phone calls or just make you straight out telepathic, people will always buy wireless phones. The population continues to grow, so the customer base doesn't run out. Also, as companies merge together (like the one I'm working for is doing right now) there will be much larger coverage areas for wireless phone subscribers to use without roaming, which will be an added benefit for people who haven't purchased a phone for that reason. Also, the features work too. People want to send and receive email on their wireless phones! They want to read the news on it! I don't know about the rest of the world, but Americans will do anything to save them time and energy. We are an extremely lazy culture (how many people will stand in front of their television set using the remote?) Cellphones make it easier to be lazy, and the more features they add, the lazier you can be!
I can tell you why that deposit was 1000 dollars. I work for BellSouth Mobility and we do the same thing. The credit check is not based on your home phone service, it's based on your actual credit rating through the credit borough. If you have a 1000 dollar deposit, you either A. don't have enough credit established yet or B. you have some outstanding bills (loans, credit cards, charged-off accounts) that are on your credit. The reason why they do this is to see who has diligently paid ALL of their bills in the past (not just with the phone company, as most people will pay their phone bill over paying off a credit card). Most companies will offer pre-paid service in lieu of monthly service, but unfortunately, it is more expensive.
I notice this a lot, esp. on Slashdot. I can't believe Americans should all be that dumb.
Those manufacturers are having problems, actually due to the high demand in Europe. Maybe there is a slowdown in the USA, but if it comes to modern mobile phone technologies the USA is hardly an indicator for where the market is going.
-Make a phone that doesn't cook your brain.
-Make a phone that is combined with an IPAQ (think Doom deathmatch)
-Make a phone that has orders of magnitude better sound quality.
-Make a phone with all of the combinations listed above.
Last, but not least, sell a phone with exclusive Star Wars action figures glued onto it. People will buy crates!
And you can't have people calling you! I mean, that's not why you had a phone and gave the number out for is it? Who the fuck do these people think they are actually daring to want to talk to you? Now stop taking that Ket and get back to the hospital.
Smaller and smaller, more memory, digital, SMS, GSM 1800 instead of 900, second line, faxdata capability, dual band, triple band, address books, games, dictionaries, radios, WAP, GPRS, etc., etc. there will always be found a reason to sell phones, just as people are still buying computers (although I know the analogy is slightly skewed).
As for looking trendy in front of potential employers, if you leave your phone on during an interview and it rings, or show it off to a potential employer in Europe you won't get the job. It is way beyond that. For an example of what I mean, try looking at how you can customise your phone at Iobox or Genie.
Motorola seems to have taken care of this problem already with their built-in planned obsolesense "feature". Ever wonder why talking and listening on your motorola phone will never be as clear as it was during the first 3 months of use? With every motorola phone I have had, this question has arisen. The only phone of mine that didn't do this was the micro tac elite anolog. That phone was most likely produced before this wonderful feature was invented.
And, every year a new crop of eligible consumers die. And, the cellphones can be resold.
...phil
...phil
"For a list of the ways which technology has failed to improve our quality of life, press 3."
yes I have looked at WAP - then ran way 'cos it suxs.
...
It's still an entension of the functionality which is what I was trying to point out. OOO loook new features, but you need a new phone
everyone upgrades...
1st its GSM
then WAP, now GPRS and in a couple of years UMTS.
Of course you have buy a complete new phone, can't upgrade the old one.
Thats why the phone co.s are pushing to get 3G out there (and wap/imode/gprs in the interim) so they can keep on churning out phones.
Rude cellphone users seem to also be common in the Phoenix area.
What I'd like is a missile launcher for my car that fires a cell-phone-seeking missile, fires automatically at any call answered while the vehicle is in the left lane.
I'm not even a nazi about driving while gabbing. I'd just appreciate it if the dumb FUCKS would just get the hell out of the left lane so people can pass.
The best bumper sticker I saw was: "do you think you could drive any better if that cell phone were up your ass?"
if it ain't broke, then fix it 'till it is!
These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
Thanks.
--
Much as consumer electronics makers now face new competitors from the computing business, telephone equipment makers may find they are not masters of the handset market if they do not deliver PC-like openness.
I wrote parts of this stuff
See Jakob Nielsen's July 9 column, WAP Backlash.
There is real value in the vision held by many of the cellular providers, but we are a long way from that vision. The vision requires:
Better user interfaces. Doh! We will not triple-tap our way to http://wap.somehorrendouslylong.url.com.
Displays big enough to read and display useful graphics (not video, just maps and such).
GPS integration.
The idea is that when my Bridgestone/Firestone Tires of Death shred themselves, I can whip out my phone and get directions to the nearest service station, then locate the closest Starbuck's for a cup of coffee while they're replaced.
But we're a long way from that.
I've been watching with some amusement as American companies scramble to come up with WAP strategies. In general, these strategies have two key components:
Exclusivity, reflecting the "false Internet" nature of the so-called Wireless Web. If you're on the screen, you're on. If you're off the screen, you're dead. The telephone company owns the screen. Pay up, information providers, or miss out on the Next Big Thing. But nobody really knows whether this next thing is big. Where's the money for the information provider?
Weak content planning, generally spun out of the "we have all this great content, let's give it to them" school of thought rather than the "let's understand what a wireless consumer might need" school of thought. Some newspaper people, for instance, are talking about how great it would be to put classified ads on WAP. I don't think I am going to sit in the park and read the classifieds on my phone.
...I get another one couriered to me FOC within 24 hours.
Now, I can't speak for the levels of service than US phone providers give, but that's what Orange do for me.
And yes, as another poster pointed out, Orange give me minutes back if they drop a call.
--
Peter
What's that then?
All the pay-as-you-talk schemes that I know of in the UK go like this:
1. Buy card (say, £10 worth)
2. Scratch off silvery stuff to reveal long number
3. Call customer services and recite number
4. There is no step 4, you're done.
--
Peter
...and I think you are, then they've been used in UK mobile phones for at least four years, too.
--
Peter
Newer offices install their own GSM stations and issue cellphones to the employees - calls within the office are free, since the company own the local GSM network, and when you leave the office you can still be reached - without having to forward your phone.
What has packet mode got to do with anything? It's still a phone. Circuit switched speech and data is still there.
I think you've watched too many marketing videos.
What the fsck are you talking about?
How exactly is a UMTS device different to a cell-phone?
BTW, I have declared myself WCMDA QuakeII world champion. Any challengers?
That way your old phone will not run the latest cellular service pack that you have to have a working phone to download!
Oh yeah, They all have the same buttons. You will have to press "send" to stop a call. (What? some of them already do that!)
Blogging because I can...
Talk about a concidence . . . yesterday, the largest local cell phone service provider (all praise Alltel) came to my employeer's campus, offering extremely cheap phones in price, but not so much in quality. Of course, you had to pay for everything on the spot.
I know for a fact Sprint PCS (the provider I use) doesn't make any money off the phones that they sell - they make money off of selling their service. So if Motorola, Qualcomm, Erikson, etc. are worried about making money, they should talk to the service providers instead of concentrating on the end-users.
I think it must work different in Europe, though. I was there a few months ago and everyone had a cell phone. It was crazy. We in the US think we use them all the time, but we really don't, compared with that side of the pond.
- mikeh
Howabout picture calls? Graphical browsing of the 'net?
They're still selling like hot-cakes in Britain, but I can see that there's only so many gadgets with which they can persuade you to `upgrade' your phone.
Matthew @ Bytemark Hosting
ps
-- In other news, astrophysicists have announced that they now know what all that dark matter is: it's stupidity.
In other news, astrophysicists have announced that they now know what all that dark matter is: it's stupidity.
Last week, my friend got a call at 2am in the middle of the forest while camping, one of his companies servers needed rebooted and the tech didn't know the command!! I don't want that..
Psss... Wanna know a secret? It's an important one and may change your life. Ready to listen? Pretty much all electrical and electronic devices have this little thing called an "off button" or an "on/off switch". If you look carefully at your cell phone you should be able to find one. Try pushing it -- you'll be amazed at the results.
And yes, you can tell this secret to your friend, too.
Kaa
Kaa
Kaa's Law: In any sufficiently large group of people most are idiots.
Phones should be based on programmable-chips so that they could easilly evolve to newer technologies,
...
They are. Newer technologies, however, tend to involve such vulgar real-world-electron things like radio transmission. As such they tend to need new physical parts and not just a BIOS reflash.
Phones should be small computer parts
I assume you mean they should be able to interface to your home PC. Most newer models already can.
Phones should be free. Somebody should pay instead of people.
A wonderful idea! But why stop at phones? Computers should be free also, somebody (as in "not me") should pay for them. And cars should be free, too. And houses, and clothes, and
Phones could also be used in the car as the GPS system.
GPS and cell phones are different systems. You can build a GPS chip into a cell phone (Casio already built one into a watch), but why? There is significant power drain and GPS doesn't work well in a city anyway.
A phone could also be a wallet,
Well, I don't know about your wallet, but I would find it really hard to replace it with a cell phone. How would you do this? I am curious.
Kaa
Kaa
Kaa's Law: In any sufficiently large group of people most are idiots.
Easily: mobile phone networks (unlike, say, the Visa network) are set up for micropayments. Want a can of Coke? Ring the number on the Coke machine and get 40 pence changed to your account.
Thankyouverymuch. I still value my privacy and have no wish for somebody to own a very complete database of everything I paid money for.
In any case, my wallet holds more than money. It holds various IDs, credit cards, public transportation passes. It also holds a ToolLogic tool set -- now let me see a cell phone do that!
Kaa
Kaa
Kaa's Law: In any sufficiently large group of people most are idiots.
well, despite the /. commentary, the article
describes how overall the industry will continue
to sell _more_ phones, doubling the number sold
by about 2007. more phones == more growth.
and these numbers are just the tip of the iceberg.
we're seeing how much easier it is to 'wire'
3rd world countries with cell infrastructure than
wiring to @ house independently. think of the 5-6
billion people out there. someday they'll all
be connected.
growth slowing? maybe.
overall growth continuing? definitely.
They also don't lock you into a 2 year contract (i.e. you can use a phone for 1 month and then switch to another company no problem).
And want to hear the strangest part? The cel phone companies are making money hand over fist.
Maybe it's about time North America looked to the East for some clues about cel phones. My current phone weighs 8 ounces, has a color screen, and can connect to the internet, display maps of the area you are in, weather information, etc etc.
Where i work, one work group have been trialing some satellite phones from glabalstar. From what i have heard, and from the quality reports ive seen, satellite phones arent all that good at the moment. It takes a long time to connect to the network, if at all. Then, if your lucky, it will connect your call. I think it was connecting maybe 50% of the time. Once you are connected though, the quality is awful and is affected by anything around you.
One guy was using on a camp site with a road nearby, and everytime a car went by, the signal quality would degrade to next to worthless.
He gave up in the end.
There is still a long way to go with satellite phone. But for the time being, we will just have to live with mobile phones.
In a sense it's a cell phone, however it's designed to work in packet mode with a massive bandwidth (up to 2Mbit/s). Since those phones are due about 2 years from now they'll probably be more like pocket-multimedia-internet-devices than cell-phones.
-- Colin
Heh, not only that, most of these people are too stupid to realize that cell coverage is spotty if not nonexistent in a lot of wilderness areas. Oh well, natural selection at work, I always say. ;-)
Say hello to zMac.
Had one. Gave it away. Not getting a new one.
Having one and just turning it off when you dont want to be reached doesnt make much sense if you have will just have it shut off 99% of the time. Then again, I unplug my phone (dont have an answering service, altho I do have number presentation (good for both sorting out calls you're not interested in, and calling back people if you feel like it)) and procmail email to somewhere around blackholing.
The fact is, I've had enough of people reaching me. I do not want to encourage it. I have enough to do with my time to last me 96 hours per day, and a cellphone just compounds that.
Dont call me. I'll call you.
I dont have a cell phone.
/recieve proper email from any pop3 account (not SMS).
(please dont stone me!!!)
I would buy one if...
I could telnet into my home machine and send
PS. I dont give a %&*! about phone calls.
It's almost happened a couple of times with the Nokia Communicator and the Qualcomm pdQ but not quite: the Communicator's too clunky and the pdQ is currently underpowered compared to the Palmtypes and CE machines of the moment. Personally I can see Sony merging their tiny z5 phone and their Clie Palmtype not that far up the line.
Along a sparsely populated dirt road into a rain forest in Central American, I noted a couple things. There were cell phone towers. And even tin roofed huts and tree houses which I saw there contained color TVs. Even though color TVs have saturated this great a portion of the planet, this seems not to have killed off the television industry.
The wristwatch and radio business also seem to be doing well in spite of the fact that most people in the US already seem to have N.
Why should the market for cell phones be different?
GSM works great in Europe. It tends to suck real bad if you can't put towers up every 10km or so. Thats a real problem for lots of parts of the US, Canada and Australia.
Different standards were chosen for different reasons. Of course Au picked GSM which basicly works for almost 2% of the land area but it covers nearly 85% of the population. The just pulled the plug on the US analog style system which covered an additional 5% of the population that isn't covered now and about 2% more of the land as well as all the touristy areas along the reef which isn't covered at all now. Just for a simple compairson, the reef is 345,000 sq km while the entire UK is almost 245,000 sq km.
you're not kidding about the high barrier for switching. I've been an Airtouch custumer (no verizon) for nearly 8 years. When I asked them to replace my phone, they said no. They'll give me $150 off RETAIL pricing on a replacement, and I have to renew a contract. New customers get a better deal than I do for being loyal.
-sid
That reminds me of the futility of having 1000 FREE minutes of AOL in their starter kit. Guess it sounds better than a free month of AOL.
Same goes for cellular phones. Would you honestly be able to use 1400 minutes in a month on your cell? You'll be doing a lot of recharging.
>You get minutes not used rolled over into the >next month (muchlike Fido started doing in >Canada) The competition is fierce enough that they have to keep increasing the number of free minutes.....
Heh. I remember seeing an article where you can get your Nokia "tricked out" with funky keypads, neon lights.
You could basically put all the modifications kids put on their 2000 Honda Civic sans exhaust & spoilers, but on your Nokia instead. Course, wouldn't mind getting my symbol on my Qualcomm.
If they've hired you to be accessable 24/7, then you should be available 24/7. It would be right for them to fire you for not doing the job they hired you for.
If they change the contract in mid-stream, then you have to make a choice. Are you going to be bothered constantly? Could the amount of calls be drasticly reduced with some more training and 'How-to' sheets?
Democrats or Republicans. They are both taking us to the same place and they are not afraid of us anymore.
Yes there are. Every year a new crop of eligle consumers appears. There might of been an artificially high initial influx of sales to fill demand but there should be steady sales with the proper marketing.
IMHO if you are expecting record sales after this happens, you need a reality check.
The cellphone market in the US has shifted so that customers choose a service provider and then choose from whatever phones are offered with the plan that they want.
Here in New York City, I cannot even buy a phone from one of the CDMA services (Sprint) and get it reprogrammed to work with the other (Verizon). So you wind up in a situation where the phone is just a (relatively cheap) accessory to the service that you are purchasing.
Until the US converges on a technology standard and we get portability of handsets among providers, the handset manufacturers will continue to play second fiddle.
How many Nokia/Ericsson/Motorola ads did you see in this morning's paper? How many ATT/Sprint/Vertizon/VoiceStream/SBC?
The Verizon strike here in PA went into the start of the semester. (Is it still going on? I'm not paying attention.) That meant that all these people with off-campus housing who needed new phone lines or subscriptions couldn't get them right away. As a result, area cell phone providers have been setting up booths everywhere around campus and making a killing. The number of people walking to class while talking on the phone has increased noticably this year.
Personally I'm on my 7 mobile phone in 6 years....you'll see that the phone companies will start to use demographics a lot more to target their customers e.g. kids and pensioners. They target their marketing so it appeals to these age groups so that they can get a few more sales. The company that creates loyalty and has a structured price plan will surely win.
Charlie Dont Surf!
I think the "throwaway phone" is really just a way to express how our phones work in europe. Instead of having a contract with a service provider, we buy a card that is worth a certian ammount of credit. You insert the card into your phone, talk till the credit is gone, then go purchace another card. Sounds kinda silly at first, but it is really great when you hear how americans are getting screwed with cellphones.
I'd rather you do it wrong, than for me to have to do it at all.
the cell phone is a commodity, like shoes. You can only use one phone at a time and only wear one pair of shoes at a time but you buy more than one pair of shoes because it goes with different clothes or it serves a different function (running, basketball, business). same with your cell phone. different colors to go with your mood or clothing. new styles with new fashion and design trends. different phones for different functions. a bigger wap phone to surf the web and e-mail, a tiny phone for voice only.
i dont know, my school had smart cards for the first 3 years i was there. as far as im concerned ill be happy to never see one again
Yep, it is so simple I cannot understand the guy's complaint (the one at the top of this sub-thread. If you don't want to be bothered by incoming calls, just turn off the phone. If you want to make a call, turn it on, make your call, and turn it back off.
Its not rocket science.
IMHO he's got no one to kick but himself. You can switch a cellular off. Personally I never leave it on while I'm asleep. In fact, it can be a good thing(tm) as well, its harder to completely unplug your regular phone.
Thats how the whole mobile phone standard started out as well...
Well, I don't know about your wallet, but I would find it really hard to replace it with a cell phone. How would you do this? I am curious.
Easily: mobile phone networks (unlike, say, the Visa network) are set up for micropayments. Want a can of Coke? Ring the number on the Coke machine and get 40 pence changed to your account. Want a newspaper and a packet of cigarettes? Take it to the till, let them ring it up and chage it to your phone. Try paying a 40p bill with a Visa card...
--
Cheers
Cheers
Jon
"They screw you with cellphones! They screw ya they screw ya they screw ya! They love it when you get cut off, cause that means that when you call back - which they know ya gonna do, they get to charge a minute at the higher rate" ... And why do they have to make the goddamn handsets so small.. I'll tell
you, so you can lose them. And why do
they want that? So you can buy More phones "
"That's if you're able to get through if you're lucky enough to be somewhere where you get reception
I don't think the mobile industry has anything to worry about regarding profits. I promise you, Chris Rock and Joe Pesci know where its at.
And no, you don't pay for incoming calls. In fact, you can turn it off when you don't want to be bothered. I do it a lot.
______________
______________
OTTERS RULE.
well, UMTS devices are actually different than cell-phones. It is quite a change of format, but then, you get more features like images?
They shouldn't look at cell-phone sales rates, as I get a cell phone for buying a pakket of cigarettes, they should look at mobile communication usage.
Bizar technology?
I paid about £10 for my phone and maybe £200 over a year for the contract. To buy the same phone with no contract (and therefore no subsidy) would have cost me about £200. Then I would have to pay for a contract ON TOP of that. Few people are going to like that idea.
i got rid of my cell phone 3 years ago and have lived comfortably without it. every once in a while i go looking at getting a new phone and don't. why? the rates and service contracts.
i read often enough about how soon we'll all simply use cell phones and wired lines will be a thing of the past but until i can get unlimited local calling for $20 like i do on my wired line i'll stay happily land-bound.
abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz
I didn't like my R320 very much at all. My new Nokia is a lot nicer. ;)
God, root, what is difference?
A cdma2000/WCDMA/GSM phone will in theory give you global roaming. Probably even a GSM/WCDMA will do, but there are still places where GSM-type networks are not available.
Thanks for the Motorola ad! ;-)
adapt
Thad
Thad
Need for new features has been the key reason why people replace their phones and before the improvements have really made sense: Better battery life, bigger screen, more usable phone, SMS features, downloadable ring tones and logo pictures.
But now there has been a misunderstanding in what the consumers want - it seems that very few people are replacing their phones with WAP-enabled ones. After all, consumers have been expecting "Mobile Internet", but WAP only gives them ugly text-mode horoscope services that cost far too much. And the corporate users are not buying WAP phones either as there is no remote access or Intranet solutions in use, if even available for them.
This may or may not apply in the US as the phone system is different and doesn't currently support SMS/WAP, but this is how it seems from my (technologically advanced ;) Nordic perspective.
Number of customers replacing their phones is higher than the number of new subscribers.
These days when mobile phones are cheap and available for everyone, they are no longer such beeper-like devices. I see the fundamental idea behind a cellular phone is the idea of being able to reach a person as compared to the idea of calling a place as in regular, wired phone. This is why I think mobile phones will eventually surpass land lines as means of person-to-person communication.
Well I have stock in Nokia so this kind of news is always a little disappointing.
I think it's a lull while people wait for the next generation of technology. Check out this article, there is going to be a push for this Christmas season to get people to pick up a new phone now with GPRS features, a "preview" of the kinds of features 3G is going to deliver...
"a powerful and unexpected ally..."
I would recomend the R320 any day.. I've had it since may/june and it's the best phone I've had no annoying bugs and all the features are great, specially the calender.. Som friends who bought it aswell say the same thing.
and whatever comes after that... just withhold features and sell them a few years later as a XYZ phone, that everyone "obviously" will need.. or the cable operators change from GSM or something, forcing you to buy new phones... just like the Wintel cartel..
-- jaf
... because i am off to the shops in a few moments to go pick up my new cellphone, my current phone ericsson sh888's contract runs out in 23 days. I want a phone that provides the same feature plus more. I am personally moving to a ericsson R320, now i could keep my old phone, but the inner geek in me is pushing me to get a better phone that is lighter, has longer battery life, and a bigger feature set. thats what drives people to get new phones, feature set aswell as what everyone else has. the nokia 3210 rocketed here in the UK because ti was the phone to be seen with.
---
boris at darkrock dot co dot uk
chris at darkrock dot co dot uk
http colon slash slash www dot darkrock dot co dot uk
Or the u.k.
Well, I would not be that sure that economy can't grow. Take, for example, a complex SW system. There's not too much that is material in it - if you even consider the disk space it uses it certainly needs raw resources to reproduce than a simple hammer yet it represents much bigger value in our economics.
Indeed, IT is a key factor to our economic growth - producing more value using less raw materials.
The same goes for cell phones - add new feature, add more complexity, reduce size - you have a more valuable phone and if you got it right, the consumers want to change their old, obsolete phone.
Of course, some people may say that we don't need this - but at some point ppl said that there is no point in having a computer at home.
Real life is overrated.
Bloody horses
:wq
Now, kill me.
:wq
Gopher? Man I haven't heard that for a while. Gopher died because of the web. Gopher? Those were the days.
:wq
While reading some of these comments about the high prices of using cellular phones for internet access, an interesting idea occurred to me. What would happen if cell phones could somehow be hooked up into a network that was not dependant on having one service provider with cell phone towers, etc. In other words, the phones talk with eachother and transmit data around, routing it to the appropriate place, much like the internet is designed.. I don't know what kind of problems this would create with bandwidth, etc, and obviously there would be the privacy concerns with your information going through other peoples' phones, just as there is with it going through other peoples' servers, but wouldn't something like this be interesting? Just some food for thought. -Trevor
Many big supermarkets sell old soap-box Motorolas for 99 FIM (about US$15). Practically at this cost you can throw the thing away when the battery performance dwindles, because a new phone costs less than a new battery (I would not buy the thing, instead I'd buy 2nd hand Ericsson or Nokia for twise the price).
sigh
"How about making a cell phone that doesn't need to be labelled with radiation warning?" You're right, it would be a a good next step, the question is how to do it right. We need shielded headsets, because with radiation only two things suffice: Distance and shielding. I don't know how distance would be accomplished, anything I come up with would just be some form of wireless; this means more exposure not less, as the intensity of the beams is worse than the handhelds. Wireless headsets? You're head is now an antennae. Wires can be shielded, casings can be shielded, so we're all going to have to look like short wave radio geeks for a 'til the technology matures. Big deal. The other thing they can do with phones? Add them into our PDA's and for those kids, add them into a Book/PDA. Watch the cartoon Inspector Gadget, if you want a viable looking model. (Not the movie, before the movie...)
FYI: (At least here in Sweden, and probably in other countries as well) The phone companies subsidize the cell phones, provided you sign up with them for 12,18 or 24 months. ...).
My cell phone cost me 1 SEK (about 12 cents), but I then had to pay the phone company ~100 SEK ($12) per month, plus per minute charges, for 12 months (which means that I still get the phone for ~$150, about half of the actual cost
I got a deal with AT&T with a Nokia 5160. I was gunna go with Verizon but they didn't offer the Nokia so they lost my business. AT&T had the Cell for $99 with a $50 rebate from Nokia, sounds good to me, anyone should be able to afford it! :)
............ no.
yeah, I for example will NEVER buy one
There is one major problem with capitalism - If you sell somebody something that does not need replacement regularly, you lose the opportunity to sell the same thing to them again. That way you are going to run out of customers sooner or later.
That's why the ideal product from a marketing perspective is something that is desirable, but either totally useless or that has a very limited lifespan.
So the strategy that most (especially tech) companies follow is to bring out product A and then bring out product B a short while later which is basically the same product but with extra features that you just can't live without. In fact why did you buy product A in the first place as it clearly does not fulfil the needs of a person living in the modern world. Then a few months later product C comes out etc. ad infinitum.
siener's youtube channel
with the 3rd gen cell phones, or whatever's coming out next, a couple of articles over on C|net have said that assorted companies will start using intel's strongARM processors, which as you said earlier, "or if it incorporated a 128Mb mp3 man", an 1Ghz strong arm processor could easily handle the load of decoding whatever bit rate MP3. I would gladly pay $150+ for a standard-looking nokia/nokia face plate usable cell phone (they already give the phone away for free, 150 for the mp3 technology isn't too shabby profit wise) that played mp3's, and could use some of that wonderfully-large ni-cad battery : )
Combine mp3 and cell phone, and i'll buy one tomorrow, at a reasonable cost.
moox. for a new generation.
Every product has been through this generic cycle. The product is introduced and purchased by the early adopters, the product gets market acceptance and there is a (steep) climb in sales. After that the market gets satisfied so there are only replacements sales (and after that the product gets replaced so sales will die :)
I've written a couple of simulation programs using stock models for consumer electronics. Historical sales figures were available for Europe and every single one showed the same new sales / replacement sales curve.
A witty saying proves nothing. - Voltaire
Well, I can't resist that: seems to me you never invaded us, but we did sail up the Potomac or whatever that stupid river is called and shoot up Washington; and then we fought two world wars, and you were LATE for both. Wimps.
well, they already did that for camera's, so why not for phones?
How to make a sig
without having an idea
I recently heard that also satelite phones are dropping down :-)
(Will all those crashing satelites create a new sort K-T boundery on earth, with it's own irridium layer?)
How to make a sig
without having an idea
The problems with mobiles (in AU at least) from my point of view is that the older models, just dissapear from the market when a new (and better model appears).
.plan = NULL;
What this means for me at least is that i can not afford the $700AU (for a DECENT phone). So i just wont upgrade / buy a new one unless my current one breaks.
I believe that the pricing Structure and the way that old phones dont get discouted is the reason why ppl dont upgrade phones.
.sig =
Do the following really mean anything? SCSA MCP CCSA CCNA
--I'm not actually after an answer!
There isnt an infinite number of consumers who want one, after all.
New functionality equals new sales
Here in Finland (home of Nokia :) many people like getting a new phone every year, though added features may only be looks and candy, such as the game nibbles.
However, with the advent of GPRS (and maybe UMTS some day :/ ) there will be a huge market for cell phones in the coming years as well. True mobile IP, that's my kind of candy. 8-)
--
Escher was the first MC and Giger invented the HR department.
You Don't WANT a microwave Source next to your brain... Funny that.
Yes I can not spell...Wait....for a second there I almost cared.
I know a lot of people on welfare, university students & other low income types. A large number of them have cell phones. It is kinda scary.
Yes I can not spell...Wait....for a second there I almost cared.
your landline costs less than your cell contract? jeez, where do you live? here in denver, you can get ~1100 minutes/month incl. free long distance on weekends for ~$40.00. that's the same or less as basic landline service with call waiting. put that in your uswest and smoke it!
The only phones in the US which are SIM based are GSM phones and the SIMs are not necessarily compatable between phones. Some phone manufactures make phones with standard, full sized SIM cards but AFIK the majority of GSM phones sold have a reduced size SIM.
I love SIMs. I dropped my phone quite a few times and eventually it stopped working. Rather than loose all of my phone numbers and have to go without a phone until I could afford a replacemnet I just stole my roomates identical phone and swapped our cards when I needed to use a cellphone.
fear is the mind killer
I think that the answer to this would be a deal somewhat like Gateway's upgade your computer plan. When your phon starts to get obsolete, they buy back your old phone, eating the price somewhat, and give you the latest phone with the spiffiest gadgets. Whoever does this first will get alot of new sales very quickly. I know that I have held off getting a new phone for quite a while. If I could upgrade without eating the whole cost, I probably would.
-Dusty Hodges
how many of us would swap to another phone if it was running a Free Flashable OS?, or if it incorporated a 128Mb mp3 man You CAN get one with mp3 (Virgin are selling the Samsung M100). However it's currently £350.
It started years ago when the newest "feature" was interchangable covers.
In order to ensure the market was full of induhviduals with different colour phones a certain telecomms company gave away _3_ of their phones each with extra covers to all their employees, even subcontractors, last christmas (1998). That helped it become a "must have" feature for consumer phones.
However, the 5110 is a bulletproof phone, so I'm not going to criticise the technology, mine's lasted me since last christmas very well.
FatPhil
Also FatPhil on SoylentNews, id 863
This of course makes some sense, considering the stock market valuation per subscriber for the mobile phone companies. (Look at what Telekom paid for VoiceStream).
This is actually nice, since I got an incredibly cool Nokia 8210 for a mere 180 bucks (plus 80 $ subscription charges). The phone at that time went for 600 - 700$.
Not only the phones are subsidized, but also the merchants get some 350$ per new contract they sell.
This is a real dilemma for the service providers, because if one of them lowers commissions or subsidies on the phones, the others are more then happy to pick up the slack.
The only thing that really changed is that the minmum subscription duration went from 6 - to 12 month. This might vary in other countries.
Ain't competition great ?
ich bin der musikant
mit taschenrechner in der hand
kraftwerk
It's the pay as you talk market that's killing profit. With pay as you talk, people go for cheap phones, little profit.
Anyway to sell more phones they just change the network:
GSM -> GPRS -> 3G
Gimme Gimme Gimme - Karma!
Right now, two of my co-workers are mocking me because I bought a plain-vanillia cell phone last month from at&t. This month, both of them went to the same store and bought a service plan (for the same $29.95/month that I pay) that gives them unlimited access time to selected internet sites.
I want a little clamshell WinCE type device with a 640x480 5" or 6" color screen. I want IE 5+ on it. I want the other Pocket PC apps like Outlook, Word, Excel. I want a little keyboard to match the clamshell. Basically I want a HP Jornada 820 with a phone built in it.
But Nobody makes anything like it
Apparently it will be a while before I upgrade again...
2) baby babble phone: Lower the difficulty of usage, so that even babies can start using them (now there's an unexploited market)
They have already done this. There are phones with pictures of people instead of numbers.
this way kids can call someone by pressing the picture of the person they want to call.
So how do automakers encourage us to buy new cars? They focus on the elements that surround the product: financing deals, leasing, insurance, branding, and so on. My guess is that it is in these areas that mobile phone manufacturers must pay attention to keep their products attractive to new and existing customers.
Weird, I tought such stuff (regularisation in showing prices/advertisements) was regulated on European level. If it is, those UK shops are in big trouble when it comes to the attention of the European Union.
surprised how much is available
Oh well, I already saw a p0rn site on WAP...Too bad I don't recall how to get there. Just imagine leeching your p0rn for free at the airport cafetaria. *grin* /. posts right now on you WAP cellphone at the airport. I'd find that really funny ;-)
Well, you'd surprise me if you were typing your
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
Good question :-) Really, I would have preffered to give a link, but I didn't find any.
It is not *that* stupid, throw-away phones: while on vacation you woudn't want your 100$ cell-phone stolen (trouble with contacting your provider to lock your SIM etc...) For the rest I don't see much uses.
For the kids perhaps: "You only get *one* cell-phone per month and don't start whining";-)
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
Subsidy is just some kind of advertisement: people who normally would not buy a cellphone (because of the price) can buy one and *will* use phone and thus enabling profit for the service providers. Besides, did you notice that the subsidised phones *never* are the top-technology cellphones. Their real prices range from 250euro to 500euro...I saw some really nifty cellphones selling for over 1200euro and I'd happily let me "subsidize" one of those.
Oh, besides: not everyone got FAX either :-)
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
Total cost of phone usage (based on my usage):
Cost of new phone (low-end): 250 euro
Cost of subscription: 0 euro
Cost of calls per month: 120 euro
--------------------------------------
Total cost of cellphone: 370 euro
Considering 1.5EUR = 1 GBP, we have *drumroll* 247 GBP :-) People tend to miscalculate and be blinded by "bargains" offered by cell-phone-providers.
Now that is *exactly* the same as the subsidised one.
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
I guess you don't know that all SIM cards come in standard size and that you just have to "push-out" the SIM chip. You just keep the rest of the plastic somewhere safe and you can put the SIM-chip back in place if you need it. Those SIM are technically the same, it's just the plastic around that differs. Besides the small one is standardized in size too.
At least it worked that way for the 3 SIM-cards (from different providers) I already had.
As for US phones, I did know there were many standards but in my naivity I presumed they were all SIM-based. Stupid me of course.
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
Well I don't know for the UK, but here there is alway a * besides the price which refers to the fine print which states "when taken with xyz subscription, otherwhise pricing is xxx". So people have no excuse *not* knowing.
Actually to be honest: if I wanted to buy a new cellphone right now I just would buy such a present-pack with cellphone + rechargable card. It is silghtly a bit more expensive than a "subsidized" phone but you are not bound to the provider. Ditch the reload card, slip in the SIM of your current subscription => instant cheap phone.
WAP is a buzzword. It didn't have the appeal in the top-tech expensive part because nobody wanted it. Now they give it to the masses in the hope to make it popular anyway. It's a marketing move to make revenue on services. Have you actually ever *used* WAP? I did, I wasn't baffled and I still don't see the use. Most newer phones support WAP, even the lower-end ones.
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
Simply not true: my dad just recently bought a cell phone and then went to a provider to subscribe for the service. (Its his first cell phone, in case you wonder) Of course he didn't get reductions because he didn't buy the phone "by way of" the provider. If the provider just give you the choice between 3 Nokia's, 2 Ericsons and you want a funky Siemens....Where is your choice?
The phone and the service are two differnt products and are treated that way. You need both to be able to phone...but you also need gas and a car to drive.
As for FAX...hey I never FAX..not even with the dead-paper machine. Email would be more nifty ^_^ and technically I should be able to do that with my 5 year old phone (I saw some choice "Email" in "Phone Setup" somewhere)
Oh, yes....I tried to put my phone on retirement by giving it to my sister but she refused it because she thinks it is just a capitalistic toy. (Weird sister, I know) And I just can't bring it over my heart to ditch a perfectly good working phone,... heck I coudn't even ditch my 286 until it's memory fried.
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
How does "lengthy subscriber contract" affect my cell phone? I mean, I go to the shop, buy a new phone and put in my SIM-card..Voila, changed phone and kept subscription.
I know cell-phones work differently in the US/Japan...but isn't it SIM-based too?
average life span of a wireless phone dropped recently to about 25 months from 32 months.
Well, that clearly depends on the person. In the last 5 years my brother got 3 different cell-phones. Mostly because they fell out of his pocket and broke...they don't repair broken cell-phones. ;-)
As for myself I have still the same bulky cell-phone I had for the last 5 years (= 60 months). I like the (fast and compact) interface and the only thing I really lack is an addressbook for sending SMS's.
Oh, and I can use it for self defense: I bet no-one will want my cell-phone smaked in his face
[...PC market...] On one hand, these companies promoted the Internet and digital music to drive consumer sales.
Heh? Computer companies promoted digital music? Hey, MPAA...sue them! Hey are helping prirates.
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
Thanks! This just proves I spend too much time here :-)
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
No, actually I meant the real tangible phones, made out of cheap plastic meant to be thrown away literally.. (Like the camera's someone mentioned)
I actually like having a "real" subscription. I don't know an equivalent exists in other countries but my "monthly fee" is 0.0$ (stated in the contract...really!), I only pay for my communications (a bit more expensive, okay) but for low debit users, like me, it is cheaper than the reload cards and more convienent too because it get debited directly from my account.
The reload-cards have the disadvantage that you *have* to reload in order not to lose your phonenumber.
When I was at university, I had one of those charge cards and in those they they were very limited (re-charge every 3 month required, no roaming, horrendous charges per minute).
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
Honestly, the battery performance only started to dwindle after 2 years of use, I don't think that applies as "throw-away" since it fall into the lifespan of actual phones (24months) that the article mentions. With throw away I would more think of a cellphone on classic batteries (AA) and no SIM card, cheap plastic and a max amount of calltime. A usage time of a few weeks.
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
I know you meant it funny (had a good laugh), but actually I heared once of throw-away-cell phones: you phoned until a certain amount was reached and then you'd throw them away. Probably a hoax because I did some searches on google and dind't find anything.
Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
Make them small, light, gadgety, inexpensive and customizable just like DoCoMo, in Japan, to name one.
There isnt an infinite number of consumers who want one, after all.
Why did this get modded up as insightful when post #1 said the exact same thing and has not been modded at all? This post should be (-1, Redundant), not Insightful.
My current cell phone -a ericsson gh688 just died. I need to buy a new one tomarrow .The problem is ý am nor sure if to buy a wap phone or not .Considering that I will have to change the handsfree kit in the car as well Do you think I should buy a cheap replacement and use it until gprs or should I go with a wap phone such as a Nokia 7110 or the siemens c-50?
I am good with software, I am good with pc hardware, I am good with any VCR and I managed to handle all the dishwashers I have come across. All this without having to RTFM. I am rarely confused by an electonic device and I enjoy that a lot.
... And every 6 months when I have to use one of my friends' cellphone, I'm at a lost. But I am extremely happy about that as well!
You make cell phones and you want to sell more units?
Start a radiation war with other phone companies. Instead of keeping all this juicy information for yourself, publish it! Let us know how dangerous holding an antenna half an inch from your skull really is.
Actually... Publish it just in time for people to panic and buy this NEW LOW POWERED LOW RADIATION LIFE SAVING cell phone.
Make money. Repeat after one year.
Not bad, especially considering how you're working all the bugs out of the technology before we deign to use it. Thanks, Europe and Asia.
The cellular phone market (in the US anyway) will not be running out of customers any time soon, despite what this article says. There are at least a couple of reasons for this.
1) Disposable (cheap and low quality) phones, targeted towards the non-tech savvy consumer. You buy the phone with xxx number of minutes, and when these are used up, toss it out.
2) As the prices continue to drop, the cellular phone will replace the local monopoly phone companies (Baby Bells) for a majority of homes in the US. In 10-15 years, a "regular" phone line in a home will look as quaint as an old rotary dial phone does today. This transformation will only increase the bottom line for cell phone cos, as they can expand their business into the home phone market.
3) And, as always, there will be those who must be on the bleeding edge of all technology who must have the latest and greatest. This will push along the R&D efforts of the cell phone mfg's, and add to the companies bottom line.
Curb CO2 emissions: Kill yourself today!
For two or three years I had a house phone and a cheapie cell plan. After seeing the insanity of that I've dropped the house phone and have gone SPCS only. The Bell Atlantic (Verizon) plan was basic residential, plus 1 hour of in-state dialing, associated taxes and fees totalling about $28 a month. I signed up with Sprint PCS for about $2 more, got voicemail, caller id, three-way calling, long distance and more minutes a month than I've been able to use.
> Who needs GSM antenna's when you can directly > > use a sattelite Iridium? Aren't they just going to blow them away because they are too expensive and nobody is using it...
Paul Priest
Vita Nuova
Paul Priest
Vita Nuova
http://www.vitanuova.com/
That already exists. Motorola Timeport, anyone?
The Timeport offers GSM at 900, 1800 and 1900MHz. And it works in the States. My home network is Orange UK, and I had no problem with coverage at all across the pond.
-- Soruk
http://slashdot.org/articles/99/11/08/1742253.sht
-Kriticism
-PARANOIA is fun. D20 is not fun. The Computer says so.
-The Computer
Duh! Create new features that can not be accessed by previous generations of phones. If you make my Motorolla i1000 look like yesterdays bad idea, I.m gonna buy a new phone. For the most part, phones are status symbols, and in our society, yesterdays technology is just not ok to posses.
You can be as mean as you want to be, as long as you're funny about it.
Like Kleenex or camera? When you have finished all the units on it, you drop it. The SIM cards are too cheap to use them.
Something I've noticed is that mobiles only seem to last about 12/18 months reliabaly anyway.
The battery doesn't hold its charge, you've dropped it so many times the cover is all scratched, etc, etc.
And certainly here in the UK you can get a new one from your service provider every 12 months anyway.
Surely this is a none-story?
My roommate is considering dropping his land line and getting his wife a cell phone. For $40/month she gets 600 day minutes, and 1000 weekend minutes, and the weekends are all long distance included. That phone also includes caller ID and voice mail. His land line service is $50/month, after you add in the options included in the cell phone (except voice mail!). He doesn't use the land phone for 600 minutes a month, and his wife makes a lot of long distance calls to family out of state (weekends). So it would be cheaper for him to drop the land line phone. (He is a carpenter and needs a cell phone for work)
Cell phones are not cheaper for people who make a lot of local calls from one location.
Paying for incomcing calls isn't quite as big of an annoyance as you think. Most plans have first incoming minute free. (so wrong numbers don't cost you anything) Also because you pay for that time phone Spam is illegal. I don't get calls on my cell phone about new siding for my home (and I rent), and the like.
For me a land phone doesn't make sense. Since high school the longest I've lived at one address was just over a year. My cell phone number hasn't changed for several addresses. When I move again it won't change either. Yes I pay more for it, but I still won't go back. (I wish they would lower prices, but they have us users)
How about not charging $80 and up for a phone and not charging 3 times what home phone service costs. Wireless communication has tripled in cost over the last year while overall inflation was more like 15%.
1. The Internet is hard to control. If you want to put up content, and can afford the bandwidth, you are in business. No government licensing or lack of spectrum can stand in your way. To phone people, this is total anarchy. They don't grok it.
2. PCs are hard to control. Even with non-open software like Windows sometimes coming under suspicion of supporting interfaces for law enforcement and intelligence agencies, and Intel messing around with snoopware in its CPUs, PCs are still powerful machines totally under the control of their individual owners. Telcos, OTOH, have a long history of actively enabling their national authorities to snoop.
3. Because of this lack of understanding, telephony products have stinted on supporting privacy, customer control, and anonymity. Imagine if a phone company offered a product about which they could say: It is open, absolutely private with no "back doors," possibly anonymous if you want that, and you can combine it with any software or service offering you desire. Hahahahaha. Suggest this in a telco, and off to the loony bin with you. But this can be said of PCs and the Internet. It illustrates the depth and breadth of the chasm telcos have to cross.
4. This also spells doom for phone/PDA combos. They do not embody PC-like control. With phone/PDA combos, you are exposed to the telco view of privacy (at their discretion) and contol (none).
5. The real answer is that convergence will happen when your phone is a PC, with all the attributes of a PC, and "phone service" is just a wireless Internet application.
6.In fact, for "phone service" to become an Internet application, it is more likely that our concept of a phone call will change (like voice chat, maybe), than that the Internet will start behaving like the telephone network.
I wrote parts of this stuff
Heh, it much more embarrassing than that for California. I bought and used a VoiceStream phone that used an identity card in Oklahoma City. In 1997.
anyway, I can't say I'm surprised about sales dropping down. after all, once you have a cellphone, you don't need another unless the first breaks *or* you're changing for 'image' reasons. and when the best reason to change is 'image', as far as I'm concerned, it means that the field has become yet another plain old commodity. i may want to have one or not, but what's clear is that once i do have one i'm not going to buy another for a very long time.
"Smart-cards" aka SIMs have always been available on GSM cellphones, even in the US. When I went on vacation last year, I pulled out my SIM card from my Omnipoint (now Voicestream) phone, stuffed it into a rented dual band cellphone, and used it in Germany, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. US customers who want this feature can have it, provided they subscribe to a GSM network. They can switch cellphones as much as they like while keeping the SIM card and their account.
Seeing that most people here take mobile phones as some kind of fashion I do not see why there should be a large number of unsold phones (at least here)
----- On the requirements it said: Windows 98 or better - so I installed Linux
Uh...no they don't. I only buy knicknacky stuff at Radio Shack with cash, and every time they (or anybody else) says "Can I have your fleem number?" I say "Of course not." This usually freezes them for about 3 seconds, after which they go ahead and finish the sale.
Apparently, this is kind of rare, but I suspect it is more common in the geek community. So, does anybody out there really hand over this kind of info any more?
Babar
There was a story the other day in the local paper about how rude cellphone user are. (NOTE: this is in the US - Florida to be exact) The article compared cellphone users to smokers[1] because they (we!) appear to have no regard for others. They'll take a call anywhere: in school, in church, in a movie theatre, etc. One example in the article was an elementary school teacher who was giving a math lesson. Just as she was reaching the critical concept she was trying to get across in the lecture, she is interrupted by Fur Elise or some such coming from one of the 7-year-old's backpack. "It's probably my Mom," he said.
I have to agree that this is rude. Rude of the mother to call during class and rude of the pupil to not turn the ringer off. I don't necessarily think it has anything to do with cellphones, however, it's just a symptom of rudeness in general. I hope that it's just us Yanks that behave this way and this is not a worldwide phnomenon, but I have my doubts.
But there is starting to be pretty severe lashback against cellphone usage here in the States. There are lots of bumper stickers that carry messages such as "Hang up the phone and drive" and I think I heard that one state outlawed driving while talking on the phone. This is in contrast to Europe and Asia, where I gather that a cellular phone is something of a status symbol.
[1] I mean no offense to smokers; I'm only paraphrasing the article.
Admit nothing, deny everything and make counter-accusations.
Unless he has the cell phone implanted in his head running off of "Matrix" style bio-energy that can't be shut off without him flatlining, I'd say he's an idiot for leaving it on, or even taking it with him camping.
Actually, as a side note I've read that cell phones are becoming a real problem for the forest service, because people are now doing more challenging things than they would otherwise, just because they know they can always call for help!
Everyone just try and remember that helicopter ride home is not free. Cell phones can be nice for real emergency use, but too many people use them as a crutch.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
From about 10 to 3 years ago, I had a cell phone, pager, and I wandered the earth content that someone could always reach me, and I could always call them right back from the comfort of whereever I happened to be at the time. Cell phones were, while not rare, hadn't exactly diluted into the peon class yet.
Now everyone, and I mean EVERYONE has a cell phone, and a pager, and all of them have tons of nifty options and cost practically nothing, and gosh by golly its just so damn cool.
I don't have one anymore. Or a pager. I've come to somewhat despise the fact that more people seem to have cell phones these days than watches.
I've come to learn that I don't NEED to be reached when I'm out shopping for 30 minutes. Nothing really seems to be THAT important. More importantly, I don't usually WANT to be reached when I'm not working. Thats MY time people. If you need me for something, just send me an email. Just as easy as a phone call, and I'll get to it when I have some time to kill.
When I first got a cell phone, I used it primarily for business related reasons, and the ocassional 30 second "hey I'll be home at 5" kind of deal. Sometime when you're bored, find someone talking on a cell phone (shouldn't be too hard) and eavesdrop. 9 times out of 10, they're probably in the middle of a 30 minute conversation about pointless gossip that really wasn't so cruicial that it needed to be discussed while the cell phone customer was picking out maxi pads in the grocery store (I would recommend hanging out in a different aisle tho)
Remember when cell phones didn't have a "style"? They were built the way they were to be the most space efficient. Now they're designer brands.
In any event, I've been without a cell phone for 2 years now. in all that time, I can't recall any time where it would have come in handy.
-Restil
Play with my webcams and lights here
This does tend to lead to a lot of swapping between people on contract that get a new one every 12 months and people on pay-as-you-go who don't. Since the phone number moves with your sim card, swapping the phones really isn't a problem. So when I get a new phone, someone at work trades his and some cash for mine, I give his to one of my nephews and his goes to my other nephew. People at work swap phones all the time. I have a queue of people bidding for my current one (because of the built in IRDA modem) and there is another 6 months to go!
Also both my nephews have broke or lost phones at one time or another. I think the demand for more phones will pick up if they can get people on pay-as-you-go to switch to contract if they break or lose one. However with so many spare phones about that could be trickier then it sounds.
The simple way is new standards such as GPRS and new features on phones that entice people to upgrade.
Bob.
MP3 player (with remote control), radio and TV, videoconferencing, multiplayer games, and emergency beacons.
Yep, my opinion exactly (apart from walking with your girlfriend
Companies seem to be having more and more trouble with the concept of a employee being a human being, not a "component". Witness the increasing encroachment on communications during working hours (it used to be accepted that employees couldn't stop being family members during working hours; they would have to contact doctors, schools, be findable in case of emergency and so forth, in cases where the privacy of the employee would be important to them; increasingly, regardless of how awkward it is, or how much of the normal business day they work, employees are expected to *accept* that any email or phone conversation will be monitored and they will be penalized if they are not using "company resources" for business purposes only.
At one of my previous jobs (which was one of the reasons I left) I resisted giving them my landline number for some time; I was eventually dragged into an upper manager's office and was told I *had a duty of care* to the company that included being reachable out of office hours if needed; needless to say, there was no extra pay or benefits for this "duty" and it didn't show on my contract. You may also safely assume that the few calls I received due to this weren't exactly life threatening - upper management types who couldn't access their email (forgot their passwords *again*) or needed to "do a power breakfast" and therefore needed information sorting out overnight so they could pick it up at the office and go straight to the meeting. I don't work there anymore.
I am a computer geek, check my email every 3 minutes, cary a palm, etc. but I like to "disappear" sometimes.
I am as much of a geek as I can be given I am married - and therefore have demands on my time.
Last week, my friend got a call at 2am in the middle of the forest while camping, one of his companies servers needed rebooted and the tech didn't know the command!! I don't want that..
I wouldn't be *too* surprised to find companies starting to dictate which holidays their employees can or can't take - based on reachability and ability to make it either back to home base or to someplace they can remotely administrate. Decent skilled techs are getting a scarce resource, and the cheaper but semi-skilled paper MSCEs which are so attractive to HR and Upper management fall apart when left to their own devices.
Am i the only one who is offended by the idea of new mobile phones with GPS and blue-tooth in them being able to send you digital cupons as you walk by the store?
More because they should not *know* you are walking by their store, and by knowing that they are likely to want a tighter "target" than that - only people who are walking towards their store, and have been in (list of competitors) store in the previous day so are likely to be shopping for similar goods.
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-=DaveHowe=-
I would buy a cell phone which supported PGP Fone. I would definitly buy a cell phone which allowed me to port PGP Fone to it (in pure software).
Actually, cell phones make perfectly logical secure login devices, i.e. a device which contains a PGP private key and authenticates it's self by signing data with that key. I would only need one password (the password for my phones PGP private key file) and I would ONLY type this password into my phone, which would then tell my system that it's really me who wants to login. No hacker could get my password because the system dose not know my password, it only knows a public key to authenticate me. Hey, you could feed all you email through your cell phone too (for PGP encryption) while your at it. I suppose you need some new way for the computer and phone to talk to one another (like infared). Anywho, the importent bit is that only you and your cell phone ever know your password and only your cell phone knows your public keys.
The Christian religion has been and still is the principal enemy of moral progress in the world. -- Bertrand Russell
How about realizing that since there are a finite amount of people, there is a finite amount of cell phones that can be sold? Or for that matter, that since we live on an isolated planet with finite resources, that our economy cannot keep growing forever?
Bloody economists.
Wah!
How about making a cell phone that doesn't need to be labelled with radiation warning? That would be a good next step.
you know, make it so that old phones will no longer work on the new standard or network that has lots of cool new features...
oh, wait. they're already doing that. it's called 3G.
He is wrong an unbelievable number of times. (Monkeys spouting things off at random get things right occasionally)
He is also incredibly biased. He used to be a big E-Machines hyper until they went with a different underwriter, wherupon he switched 180 degrees, and started blasting E-Machines. A quick web search will quickly verify this.
So much for the "chinese wall" between the analysts and underwriters at the big accounting firms.
How about introducing new generations of phones which are safer than the last "safe" generation of phones?
:)
Works for the automobile industry
How about throwing in a new standard every couple of years and make old phones obsolete?
Currently, most of us use GSM for our mobile telephony addiction. In 2001-2003, the new third generation networks are going to be deployed. This creates a huge new market, as the early adopters will buy the new multimedia-enabled phones immediately, and, after a while the average joe will trade his GSM for a GSM/WCDMA double standard phone. The drop in pure-GSM phone sales will then be matched by the increase in smart phones sales and in 3rd generation phones.
Another niche to be explored is the travellers' one. (Software reconfigurable) phones that work in the US and Europe/Japan will be very nice for people that don't like to own a couple of phones and like to travel light. A terminal with cdma2000 and WCDMA and maybe GSM will make me drool anytime... ;-)
adaptI just checked out cell phones again. They still seem to cost about twice as much per month as the landlines. I won't be getting one until they get a bit more competitive. Also there is the nuisance factor. If you have a phone, people can call you. When you need to get some work done, you get out of the office so you won't be disturbed. With a cell phone in your pocket that won't work so well. I think that nuisance factor outweights the added convenience of being able to call out from anywhere, like sitting in the park, or sitting in the toilet, or the toilet in the park, or...
Another problem is that most service plans require you to pay for incoming calls! Not only are people bothering you, but you're paying for it. That really adds insult to injury. The rates I saw seemed to run around 30 to 50 cents a minute for local calls, with 15 cents a minute extra for long-distance. This was digital service in the MidWest.
I don't think that cellphones will get too far beyond the gadget-freak crowd until service gets quite a bit cheaper. I'm just not willing, right now, to pay more than double for phone service, just to make it easier for others to bother me. I rarely have to make a call when I'm not near a land line, so the added convenience is just isn't worth much extra money for me.
Nels
See what I've been reading.
Ever since the mobile phone industry began (at least in UK and Ireland) it has all been about subsidising phones to get new cutomers on networks. This has now reached near saturation.
Without a new network to sell to people, all the mobile phone companies can do is to produce smaller models and maybe integrate in more features BUT as most people won't be subsidised to buy these phones they are not going to sell many unless they have a killer app (how many of us would swap to another phone if it was running a Free Flashable OS?, or if it incorporated a 128Mb mp3 man, WAP is not a killer app, it'll just get let them eeek out a few more millions). The mobile phone companies will be back to pulling in the cash as soon as significant numbers of newer model phone requiring networks appear...until then they have a quiet time.
Never underestimate the dark side of the Source
-legolas
i've looked at love from both sides now. from win and lose, and still somehow...
It may be useful to highlight other uses for "phones" besides handsets.
Wireless datacom (using the celluar nets) is already starting to gain some momentum. There are a lot of applications for this sort of technology
...the vending machine that calls the distributor when it's running low on something...the parking garage that calls the warning sign on the edge of town when its full...the sensor in the basement of your apartment building that calls the manager when the furnace breaks down...
New standards will always sell some new handsets, but growth in the medium term seems destined to come from untapped, unsaturated markets.
Vaya con huevos, my darling.
Most Nokia and Ericson phones have their OS stored in flashable memory. It is possible to fetch the version and revision number by entering a code. I guess it would be possible to do some reverse engineering and write your own OS. :-)
Linux for Phone ?
I like this idea
I was actually thinking of FPCGAs in order to update the processors themselves.
For example, most phones contain an ARM processor.
Their is a patented technology which allow the use of an ARM as a soft modem's platform.
I was then thinking of the ability of rewriting the CPU's internal logics in real time in order to embed such features without the user even notices it.
We would then have an enormous potential here.
Imagine: an evolutive BeoWulf cluster of apparently-looking phones that would in fact allow any of the permanently connected users to share his unused bandwith with the other people whose phone would have the same technology. BTW, the processing (unlike bandwidth) power coul also be shared in order to help each other in case he has a tremendous amount of data to (un)encrypt, hence the BC
I know, it is not a good idea to mention a BeoWulf cluster in a Slashdot comment as it usually gets moderated down but I think this is not off-topic here.
Concerning the hefty discount you mention, I still think it is viable to just give the phone away (along with its communication) and actually gain some money this way.
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Trolling using another account since 2005.
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Trolling using another account since 2005.
You buy a phone because you buy cellular service. Going upscale isn't going to get more people into the game. Honestly - the idea of a $200-300-400 phone is just absurd. Compounding this is that most telcos tell you which phones you can use, typically the ones they sell else there is a penalty. If the phone man'f'trs want to sell more phones then they have to work to pressure the telcos in the US to do something about the tangled mess of the industry. There is no national standard or integration such as in Europe. The rates are an order of magnitude higher than in other parts of the world. Service and coverage is spotty at best. You can't integrate billing unless you get land line and mobile from the same telco and even that's hit or miss. The cost of phone insurance for your multihundred dollar phone is in the loan-shark range.
As far as the phone devices themselves are concerned did they even consider that I might not want to replace EVERY accessory if I buy a new phone? The power connectors are different, the headset plugs are different, the batteries are different - and these are from the same man'f'tr.
They will sell more phones when more people can use and afford the service plans.
This used to be my argument for not owning a cell phone. Well, now that I've had one for a few years, I know that it can be turned off or set to silent mode - and I do this. If I don't want to be reached, I won't be reached.
Technology should enable you to do things. If it forces you to a faster, less managable pace of life, then it's not working for you but against you. You said you got a call at 2am in the middle of the forest while camping.. Then you said "I don't want that.". Well, leave the phone at home, or turn it off. Hell, with any decent phone, you can set profiles to only let through certain numbers so that you can be reached by your friends but not by work if you want.
Wireless penetration in other countries is larger than in the U.S. The price per minute in the U.S. is still around 25/cents/minute unless you buy a very large bulk of minutes each month in advance and use or lose them. I've heard in Israel, for example, airtime is around a U.S. penny a minute.
It's also difficult for existing customers to upgrade their phones without paying through the nose. The carriers should realize the old model of trying to give away the phone to get customers doesn't work unless you are trying to jump start a market. It's already there. Lower your air rates across the board and charge a higher fee for the phone itself.
I mean, just try going into a cell store and tell them you want to buy a phone without activation and see what kind of looks you get...
One of the biggest challenges facing the mobile phone operators is the continued non-adoption of global standards in the States. From one hand this means the States is the world's wireless backwater, but from the other the most valuable single market is too important to miss.
If the States creates its own standards yet again then this will increase development costs for the phone manufacturers.
However as it is estimated at 2 years at least before the States get a sniff at 3G it could be that the rest of the world will be too far ahead.
An Eye for an Eye will make the whole world blind - Gandhi
Most people don't realize the real costs of a cellular phone. I started out with a Nokia 2110i myself and after 3 years I wanted something more so I bought myself an Ericsson SH888 which I still own (mainly due to its irda & modem facilities) and I don't see myself changing phones very soon. I have all the access I need with my Psion series 5mx. I can easily send/receive SMS, email, fax. I can browse the Inet and all of that without any hassle like cables etc. What else would you need?
And then there is allways WAP. IMVHO a pathetic way to try and sell even more phones which I'm pretty sure will fail alltogether. The whole Gopher concept seems to have failed horribly on the (cheap) Internet, do you really think that it will re-live on another (expensive) medium? I don't think so...
If they really want to innovate they should move on IMHO. A lot of people start complaining about radiation emitting from phones so pick up the oppertunity and go on. Like you could see at the last CeBIT; sattelite phones with the size of an old(er) cellular. Who needs GSM antenna's when you can directly use a sattelite (which could send to some relaystation which could spreaden the signal using another frequency band)? If you want to make more money on phones I personally believe thats where to get it. Offcourse it needs investment (I don't keep up with the developments but I doubt that these products are 'consumer ready') but thats the case for everything nowadays.
In the future we can expect such wonderful features as:
1) A method to locate your position. Ostensibly for 911 services, phone companies will soon realize that they can make money by selling the service of blipping adverts from companies in your vicinity. Some bright soul will come up with the idea of having a signal emitted, say, your grocery when you're near. The grocery will then grep its records (Based on that discount card you have,) realize that milk you bought two weeks ago must be pretty rank, and pop up an ad on your phone reminding you that now would be a great time to get some new. No doubt they'll take a patent out on this idea, despite its obviousness. I'd consider this a great project for a high school programming class.
Radio Shak is already well positioned to do this (With batteries, not milk) since they already know your name, address and phone number as well as what you bought and when.
Of course, other people might also want to know your positions and movements. That suspicious spouse, stalkers and law enforcement will all benefit from this service. Remember: Deploying 911 hardware: $1.5 billion. Average cell phone: $45. Fingering the "Real Killers" from their cell phone locality records: Priceless.
2) Bluetooth: Now your cell phone can be 0wn3d, too. PDAs and other small devices don't have a lot of room, and the last thing the designers ever worry about is security.
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
Um, what you're talking about are FSM SIM cards. In countries with a developed and unified GSM network(s) such as most of the countries in Europe, Asia etc. GSM is the one standard. Therefore, all our phones have SIM cards that can be swaped. It works very, very, well.
Want a Nokia 7110 on One2One, but have an Erikson? No problem, pop the SIM out, and stick it in the 7110. Same network, same number, diferent phone.
If the US would/had settled on a single network standard, instead of the (Three?) systems they currently have, You Too could experience the benifits of such a system. As it is now, you sound pretty screwed.
Syllable : It's an Operating System
I am a computer geek, check my email every 3 minutes, cary a palm, etc. but I like to "disapear" sometimes..
Last week, my friend got a call at 2am in the middle of the forest while camping, one of his companies servers needed rebooted and the tech didn't know the command!! I don't want that..
Am i the only one who is offended by the idea of new mobile phones with GPS and blue-tooth in them being able to send you digital cupons as you walk by the store?
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If God Droppd Acid, Would he see People???
What are we going to do tonight Brain?
A few years ago, I noticed bag phones showing up at thrift stores. They were asking like $35-$40 or so for them. Then the 9 inch brick phones started showing up. Now the handheld cellular phones are showing up, and the large quanitity of junked cell phones is starting to become a real problem. They're going for $6-$10 now, cheap enough to buy a junker just for its NIMH battery.
.us that is) I wouldn't mind a better plan than a new customer, or at least not having to sign a year contract in exchange for re-using a perfectly good cell phone. Even if I had to find one that was originally issued by my intended phone company, that wouldn't be too bad.
Hell, I was even given one AMPS analog (a really lightweight Motorola) and one PCS digital phone from my mom and stepdad because they hadn't liked the plans with which they got the phones, or something like that.
So does anyone know how easy it is to re-use such phones? (in
#naabhaprzrag, #sverubfr-000, #agi-fcbafberq, negvpyr[pynff*=' negvpyr-ary-'] { qvfcynl: abar !vzcbegnag; }
1) feature boom: Introduce more & more features, so everyone will want the latest model (what? they already do that?)
2) baby babble phone: Lower the difficulty of usage, so that even babies can start using them (now there's an unexploited market)
3) Lower the quality: Let them automagically break down after 'warranty period + 1 day' (what, they already do that?)
How to make a sig
without having an idea
Sometimes I amaze even myself.
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With those tiny smart-cards, it's trivial for anyone to trade in old cell phones for new ones, and it breaks the current phone companies monopoly, since currently there's a pretty darn high barrier of entry to switch phone providers (you have to get a new phone if you want to switch from ATT to Verizon).
For $30 US a month, you can get 2000 minutes in Hong Kong. Cheaper service means more customers, which means a larger market for cell phones.
I wish I could remember where, but I heard somewhere that in some places like Japan (I think), people get a new phone every 6 months for no other reason except to have the latest phone.
Maybe the bulk of new cellular technology markets are just going to stay in the regions of the world where image is so important in that way. To be honest I hope that never happens here. I hate mobile phones enough without them draining my bank account even more so I can look trendy in front of potential employers (who incidently can go to hell if they judge me on my phone. :)
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As long as there are new features to add, there are new customers. We are still in the very early stages of development of a "portable information device". PDA's, cellular phones, cameras, GPS's, computers, TV's etc. will all converge into one system (not necessarily one physical device).
When there is a device that allows you to talk to your friend, wirelessly, and see your friend in clear, sharp color picture, who will want an old crappy GSM phone anymore? When the phone transfers 10Mbps data and is online 24/7, who is going to use modems, ADSL or cable modems or even ethernet anymore? When the phone is small enough to embed into a shirt button, who will carry around the now-considered-small zippo sized phones? The only obstacle is price, and that too is dropping fast. I happily use my GSM phone to connect my Palm Pilot to the net to read and write email, check news, weather, sport scores and stock prices.
There is also a long way to go for software and services - ideas.. What if the phone knew where you are so it could tell you that, around the corner, your friend is sitting in a cafe? What if the phone could tell you that there is traffic ahead so you should get of the freeway or you will be stuck in the jam for 45 minutes? What if you could do your banking using the phone and order tickets? What if the phone had a Java virtual machine and a TCP/IP stack? All this already exists but isn't well integrated or conveniently usable yet (too expensive, too bulky, too slow etc.).
Quite soon we see that "phone" is not relevant anymore. We're talking about a whole new generation of information devices. You don't have to be Einstein to see that this is what - at least Nokia - i shooting for. Just look at their 3G pages, "media screens" etc.. Sun is talking about information appliances, Nokia has cooperation with Palm and Psion..
With low-power processors like the Crusoe, small computers like PDA's and phones will be used for *much* more in the not-so-distant future.. To say that "we're running out of features" is absurd.