Slashdot Mirror
5 Predictions for 2012
Structured Audio writes "Mike Langberg of the Merc put up his 5
technology predictions for 2012. Well
chosen, although of course in 2012 speech
recognition will still be 10 years away :-)."
← Back to Stories (view on slashdot.org)
I wonder why all the articles which hold predictions are "bold."
Great...can't skip work and go on the Duff Factory tour...
:)
unless I leave my cell phone at home
All present and accounted for -- always. ...
Family, friends and co-workers will be able to instantly see where you are,
I think this will come much sooner and, by 2012, will be gone again once everyone realises how bloody awful it is.
At least according to Terence McKenna.
from the longhorn story earlier: ;)
"Enderle said the new file system will also function efficiently with hard drives holding at least one terabyte of data. That's 1,000 gigabytes, or well over 1,000 compressed movies, or more than 700,000 novels the size of "War and Peace." Such drives are expected to hit the market by 2004."
i hope 8 years more can give a couple more megs to hds
Smile... tomorrow will be worse.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
...FLYING CARS!!!
unzip; strip; touch; finger; mount; fsck; more; yes; unmount; sleep
The question is how sophisticated our voice recognition will be in 2012. Asking a car how far away a destination is really isn't that hard, and that is only a few years off. To me this just seems like a beefed up command line interpreter-- albeit alot more user friendly. But is that really true voice recognition? Shouldn't voice recognition imply that the computer can pass the turing test? If that's the case, I think that we are a long way off from computers that we can actually communicate with like human beings.
.....what gives? I talk to my computer all the time..I guess I'm ahead of the times.
I could write those predictions. Actually most science and technology magazines have already printed similiar predictions for years now. If I type something BOLD like that also, will it get posted on Slashdot too?
In the year 2012:
Junis will upgrade to a 386
Jon Katz II begins writing articles for slashdot. His premiere article: What caused Columbine to happen II? A 37-part epic.
Stephen King and Alan Thicke will still be dying on a daily basis, missed by all.
The goatse.cx hole will increase in radius by 3m.
The (meta)-moderation system will still be broken.
E-paper will be coming out "real soon now"
The "How about a beowulf cluster of these?" joke finally gets played out.
Mozilla supports yenc decoding.
In the year two-thousand and twelve, we will have inexhaustable electricity sources, flying cars, commercial zeppelin transports, jetpacks, a non-crashable Microsoft Operating system and of course SPAM(TM) that is edible.
They've always been promising us moving sidewalks. Why can't They keep their promises?
I can see it happening to some extent - I mean, the algorithms used are really unreliable, but given time, I can see it becoming usable. However, I take issue with the way he think it will be presented. AI will not be advanced enough, IMHO. You won't say "How far to nearest gas station", you will probably be more limited in how you can ask your question. It might be close to "Car, distance to gas station, nearest" or some other limited syntax. I preface it with 'car' because you have to have some way to let the car know the question is directed at it.
To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
--E.C. Stanton
Unfortunatly, Duke Nukem Forever was cancelled again in 2011....
One of the more probable and interesting technologies is Radio Frequency ID. Many people think it'll replace barcodes within some years, but I think many people (because of lack of knowledge) will be sceptic. We're hearing so much talk today allready of mobile phones and wireless networks being "dangerous" in different ways.
Ciryon
what on that list is impressive? He could've at least gone out on a small limb and mentioned fuel-cells.
Brevity is the soul of wit
-- Polonius
downloads a new kernel into you.
"Academicians are more likely to share each other's toothbrush than each other's nomenclature."
Cohen
(drumroll please)
5. computers will be much faster than they are today
4. computers will be much less expensive than they are now
3. programs will take much more space than they do now
2. hard drive capacities will be much larger than they are now
and finally... (drumroll please)
1. there will be even more duped articles on Slashdot
If nothing else, RFID could have spared Winona Ryder her recent and very embarrassing shoplifting arrest.
I'll say, just stick your in a conductive bag and they'll never know.
erhaps Frits Hollings will introduce the CRFIDTPA which will illegalize bags and pouches made from electrically conductive material.
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
Anyone remember a PBS show that pretended to be a couple decades from now, reporting then current day events? I flipped in on the tail end of the show- one blurb had a couple who have never met, but got married in cyberspace, and she never wanted to meet him cause she was afraid that if she saw what he really looked like, she would be disgusted, and another blurb where a couple had a hacker controlling all of their appliances. I'm not asking if anyone else saw it so much as what were some of the other clips in that show?
slashdot: where everyone yells sarcastic metaphors to themselves to understand the issue
I'm already always online on my IM services, but always in the N/A or away state.. People never know if I'm actually there, unless I talk back. I'm omnipresent, just not an accountant.. or something.
"If anyone needs me, I'm in the angry dome."
The car: You should not have to ask how far it is to the next gas station. The car knows how much gas you have, how many miles to the next station, and your gas millage, maybe even the terrain. It should be more like:
Hal: John, I have determined you should not have passed that last station, maybe you should turn around now.
Hal: John, you have two miles more before the point of no return to that gas station you passed.
Hal: John, are you listening to me?
John: Shut UP! You dont know i have a gas can in the trunk!
Hal: John, yes you do, but its empty! Remember last time?
John: Nag, Nag Nag..
See subject. Life's still going to suck. The planet is still going to be overrun with idiots.
I would guess it is also possible for networks to start doing what they do during soccer games when they can't take breaks -- scroll the add on top of the programming. You could be watching Friends, with a little "Pampers" ad on the bottom. This would allow for even more commercial time, and they could sell the time to sync to various moments in a program. (e.g Rachel is playing with the baby, roll the Pampers ad. They are in the coffeehouse, roll the Starbucks ad)
Another thing that can happen is a'la sports programming. At various times during the program, the picture would shrink, making enough space for an ad to be displayed alongside. Some people will put up with this if it means free, and you can't skip the commercials.
See, aren't ya'll glad I'm not a network exec.
If it goes away, good riddance. They have to be careful with subscription fees.. commercial TV is mostly crap, so it is hard to price it correctly. All my local stations together would probably be worth about $7/mo to me if they were to be commercial free. Can they make money with that?
The Internet is everywhere -- and nowhere.
;-)
This will take at least 15 years. People don't buy new washing machines all that often.
All present and accounted for -- always.
This will be in mobile phones within 5 years.
Walk now, pay later.
Probably unfeasible as described. More likely you will authorize payment for the item before putting it in the bag. The receiver at the entryway will only check that you don't leave with any unpaid items. 10 years is about right, I wager.
Prime time is your time
Not very adventurous there. 5 more years.
Finally, we can talk to our computers
People curse them every day, so this is already reality.
I doubt true voice control will be there in 10 years either, unless there is a major break through in AI technology. Before that, we will be limited to simple voice keyed activation.
"I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them." -- George H. W. Bush
To be more precise, it will end on Dec. 21, 2012. Even more suprising is the fact that everyone I work with finally gets our additional vacation time on...Dec 21, 2012! I think our CEO is in league with those Mayans, X-Philes, and the Aliens. We're all doomed to have the world end without getting to use our additional time! Damn aliens...
In Soviet Russia, Beowulf cluster imagines YOU!
Every cable and satellite television receiver will include a hard disk for recording shows, and those disks will have a minimum capacity of one terabyte, or 1,000 gigabytes, enough to store hundreds of hours of high-definition programming.
Not bloody likely. HD Video is likely to require about 15 GB/hour to store. 1 TB of data does NOT give you 'hundreds of hours', more like 65 hours.
"Where are my flying cars? I was promised flying cars..."
- Avery Brooks (In a IBM commercial)
AnamanFan - Trying to find the Truth, one post at a time.
My presence is for me to decide. I don't want anyone to know right where I am unless I tell them or they are with me. The first anyone who insists on knowing my wherebouts 24/7 (who's not my wife ;) will learn a lesson in the wherebouts of my fist.
Smart tags wont be on price tags, they'll be built in to products. Again, I don't want little tattletales broadcasting every thing I have to anyone with a hig gain scanner. Theives will move from the store to your home. Expect that they will be illegal to remove by anyone, too.
TV will move to a pay per show model. Product placement will be rampant, as well as the commercials (you'll get those for free, of course. ) Expect shows to be shorter, and drawn out over longer periods. Reality Based shows will most likely thrive, since many of the things they will do on TV won't be allowed in RL. Invasiveness is the key.
Talking to my computer will still be hampered by bloated code, legislation, monopolies, and chewing with my mouth full.
All this will be driven by companies who want you to consume more and more. Durabillity will be replaced by a throwaway society - recycling will most likely be increased, since raw materials will become scarcer, and the number of people will continue to balloon.
See you there!
Most of these predictins are fairly safe. One of the most interesting is the self-checkout store. It might be hard to get the tags tamper proof. Remember that they would not merely have to get them tamper proof in terms of being to sneakily remove them, but tamper proof in the sense of preventing them from transmitting or tamperproof in the sense of having the recievers not get the signals, such as good old fashioned jamming. Some real challenges, but not out of the question entirely. The preciction that your family, etc will allways know where you are may well prove to be possible but unwanted (as may be the prediction about having your washing machine tell the company how often you are washing clothes). This is just an extension of the electronic name tags in the 1992 article. People want some privacy. It is a bit like universal picture phones. The first picture phone was demonstrated in a demonstration between AT&T headquarters and the Secretary of the Treasury in Washington. The Secretary of the Treasury was Herbert Hoover (yes, that Herbert Hoover, the technology is really that old).
overrated and underrated don't appear in metamod
If we have flying cars and inexhaustable electricity sources, what do we need zeplins for?
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
That would mean that internet connectivity has to be wireless and cheap. It would also require people to WANT their appliances connected to the internet. I'm sorry but my washing machine works really well right now on it's own without it bugging me to take it in or yelling adds at me. If that's why these machines want to connect (to rip me off, advertise to me, tell me i should take it into the dealer and pay more money) then I'm gonna be ready with a nice jamming signal for them.
2. The IM prediction and online presence.
Maybe it will be like somewhat as he says. But I sure as hell am not going to have a damn gps signal telling everyone who wants to talk to me exactly where I am. And I'm not gonna be available all the time either. My settings are gonna default to "leave me a god damn email msg and I'll get back to you when I can". Not 'here's my exact location, what I'm doing and 5 ways to page me right now'. :)
3. Walking out of shops and the rfid tag nonsense.
Riiight. A store with no clerks. Talk about easy to shoplift if you have your own programmable rfids. or just walk out next to someone else and charge your stuff to their card.
4. Tivo in every home, no restrictions.
Let's see if the mpaa + networks will just roll over for that one. My guess is it will be a crippled tivo ripoff with all sorts of DRM and palladium inside if that happens. Anything else will be illegal.
5. Speech recognition.
Don't know about this one. Everyone and their mother has thought this was right around the corner for the past 20 years.
Here's my prediction:
Corporate America will finally dispense with the play acting and be in direct control of the country. Instead of having senators from each constituency, we will have senator Disney, senator Microsoft, senator Tobacco industry, senator chemical industry. And the president will be the CEO of the country.
Liberty.
"And in a few years you'll be able to talk to your computer. You can say like 'Wash my car', or 'Clean my room'. ... Of course it won't be able to do any of those things, but it'll understand what you said."
...Also, I didn't know Buggalo could fly.
They're talking about squeezing HD-DVD onto the same physical medium, but using MPEG-4 compression rather than the MPEG-2 currently used. Now, assuming that a DVD can hold 9 gigabytes and a necessary minimum capacity of two hours, that's about 4.5 gigabytes per hour. That gives about 220 hours of storage.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
--Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
That sounds kind of silly. Would be kind of like the grocery store calling me up and telling me I was low on milk. Yes... it would be great to know that my washing machine is using too much hot water... but the washing machine should tell me, and not Sears.
Sex - Find It
I'm a bit surprised that some more thought wasn't given to how different our energy consumption patterns and transportation modes will be by then.
His predictions may make sense technologically, but not socially. Your appliances might be on the Net, but they will only be accessible to you. Your refrigerator will notify you by email or equivalent when it needs service, not the manufacturer. People don't want their appliances talking to strangers. The owners will want to be in charge.
Likewise when checking out in the store, you will need to explicitly authorize the purchase, otherwise you could contest it later. You will be presented with an itemized receipt based on a scan of your items, and you're supposed to look it over quickly and make sure there's nothing on there that you didn't buy. Then you do something to initiate the payment. You can't let people take money out of your account without giving approval! There has to be some action you take to explicitly authorize a certain amount to be transfered.
With the "presence", again you will have much more control over it than he implies. You will be able to say who can find out how you are reachable. You can have filters that automatically email you when your voice mail comes in, etc., so that people with different levels of access don't necessarily know how much priority they're getting. That way you don't offend people.
As far as ubiquitous TiVo, it depends on the outcome (both legislative and technical) of the copyright wars. You may be able to record the shows only under the control of strict DRM software that won't FF through the commercials (like the way DVD players won't FF through the FBI warnings now).
One additional social/technical prediction I'd make is more use of webcams for business meetings, creating the virtual office. Assuming that terrorism scares keep happening, people will prefer not to travel so much, and employees will want to stay home and not come into the dangerously concentrated population areas downtown. We'll see a continued trend towards white collar workers using live video feeds to communicate with their co-workers both locally and around the world.
Receiver fails to detect CC ID chip - customer gets hassled by security/alarms go off.
Or, reciver fails to detect product ID tag. You get your stuff for free.
Not that anyone would have a bag with an aluminum lineing or anything...
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
220 gig hard drives are already on store shelves. You can easily build a 1tb raid array today if you want to. Think about the size of hard drives in 1992. What, 120 megs? If the triend continues we'll have half petabyte hard drives by then.
Of course, they will run at 400 degrees and last a week, but tradeoffs always need to be made...
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
In 2013, after you install the water limiter uncapper, your maytag washing machine finks on you and collects a reward.
In 2013, the invention of the RFID cloaking devices (aluminum lines shopping bags), leads to whole sale shoplifting. An new chain of stores called "shop-naked" emerges, and becomes wildly popular not only as a place to meet members of the opposit sex, but because it is the only place that sells food in the city anymore.
in 2013, stranger-on-a-train parties become an out-of control trend, with complete strangers exchanging their Presence ID tags. Thus subverting the tracking scrutiny of big brother and his computerized corporate stooges. Faced with a loss of control over ordinary citizens, President Jenna Bush imposes mandatory ID tatooing and all babies receive an injected RFID module.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
Actualy I'd never seen a video banner ad like that. A few box ones though. Flash can have sound in moz, so I don't see why that would protect you.
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
How many of you have houses with ethernet near the wash machine? How many will drill holes through your walls to get ethernet to your wash machine?
Ah, but you forget the WiFi. The device I'm writing this comment on has no material connection to anything.
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
Even more interresting are the predictions he made 10 years ago, in 1992
They're called 'genitals',
Seriously though, how would pushing this so-called happy button be any diffrent then masterbating?
And if they made you truly happy, they'd be illegalized just like Ecstasy and heroin are today.
autopr0n is like, down and stuff.
it's not only on AT&T's mLife plans..... it's on a lot of newer phones... basically any phone that boasts "e911" has a GPS or GPS-like thing going on. my friend's latest phone (on verizon) has this feature, and it's not an expensive phone. it can be set so it is only active if you actually dial 911. in a sense it is kinda cool, in a sense it is creepy as hell. if you sail off the highway on a backwoods road during a snowstorm, you would be psyched you have it (assuming you have signal). if your boss uses it to find out you are not sick and actually going to see Star Wars 3, then you'll hate it.
Imagine an office landscape of about 100 people. It will sound like a chicken farm on fire.
Isnt handsfree silly enough to watch? Will the computer understand foul language and respond by deleting files (happens anyway if you use Windows).
HTTP/1.1 400
I ALREADY hate Star Wars 3 and I haven't even seen it yet
That was classic intercourse!
In 10 years, we'll all look back on this and laugh. The same way that we do when we watch an old science fiction movie that was made without the thought in mind that people would still be watching it 30 years later.
My washing machine won't talk to the producer in 10
years. There is no reason to do so. My mothers
machine is now running for 20 years and her old one
did it for a longer time.
Also my computer won't understand me in 10 years.
Because it won't get the contexts. The problem with
context cannot be solved with more memory.
The next predition was a video recorder with
1TByte. Well that sounds reasonable to me, but
without special keys I wouldn't be able to watch
anything on that disc, because it is encrypted.
Well I predict. Less freedom, and more control
over knowlegde, resources by big companies.
Also there is a tendency for more riots, terrorism
and other kinds of disorder.
You can opt out for a monthly fee
No sig for you!!
I don't have any faith in speech recognition.
I'm already using it, and it drives me nuts. When I add money to my "pay and talk" cell phone account, I am forced to use their new (within the past couple of months) speech recognition menu. I am literally answering a robot's questions, and she makes me want to bang my phone on the closest solid structure near me.
Welcome to Rogers At&T pay as you go service, would you like to add money to your account today? Please say yes, or no.
Yes
I'm sorry, I didn't hear you, would you like to add money to your account today?
Yeeeees.
I'm trying to ask you a question. Please answer with yes or no.
YEEEEEES
this is the part where I wonder if swearing at the system will make it work. Maybe it recognizes "i said yes you piece of shit android" No it doesn't (I tried), but it usually takes about 5 tries, and I get into the "add money to my account menu" where i can then use the keypad (still) to enter in my P.I.N., new card number, etc.
You have paid for a total of 0 pages and so far 0 have been used up (0 today).
Bold technology predictions for 2012
By Mike Langberg
Mercury News
Smart devices that talk to each other without human intervention, store merchandise that rings itself up for purchase and machines that finally understand the spoken word are just some of the new technologies awaiting us in the year 2012.
On Monday I gave myself a ``B'' for my 1992 predictions of what life would be like in 2002.
Before sticking my neck out another 10 years, I consulted three Silicon Valley futurists: Tim Bajarin, president of technology consulting firm Creative Strategies in Campbell; Tim Brown, president of Palo Alto design firm Ideo; and Paul Saffo, a director of the Institute for the Future in Menlo Park.
I've borrowed many ideas from these three deep thinkers, but the predictions that follow are mine -- so I deserve all the blame for anything that looks silly 10 years from now.
So here are my five big ideas for how technology will reshape our daily routines in 2012:
The Internet is everywhere -- and nowhere.
Almost every object we own that uses electricity will be connected to the Internet in 2012, yet we will rarely be aware of this near-universal connectivity, because so much of the conversation will be machine-to-machine communication.
You'll no longer be surprised to get a call from the repair center at Sears or Maytag saying your washing machine is using too much hot water and needs adjustment -- information the washing machine has sent through the Net, without any action of your part, back to the factory where it was built.
All present and accounted for -- always.
Instant messaging is popular, in part, because IM software tells you which of your friends are online waiting to chat. This concept, formally known as ``presence,'' will be extended to all forms of electronic communication.
Family, friends and co-workers will be able to instantly see where you are, thanks to wireless phones even tinier than what's available today and other devices with built-in GPS locators. You'll be able to specify how you wish to be reached: by text if you're busy, by voice or video if you're free. Between now and 2012, expect major controversy on whether employers, schools and advertisers should have access to your ``presence.''
Walk now, pay later.
Stores without doors will rely on RFID, or radio-frequency identification, tags to keep track of inventory and payment. These tiny semiconductors communicate a small amount of information, such as a product serial number, when queried by inexpensive transmitter/receivers. Only recently selling for several dollars, RFID chips should cost only a few cents next year and will be smaller than a grain of rice.
In 2012, RFID chips will sell for less than a penny and be printed onto packaging and price tags -- the beginning of the end for cash registers. You walk into a store, put what you want in a bag and walk out the door. An RFID transmitter/receiver in the entryway instantly totals up your purchases and makes a deduction from the RFID credit card in your wallet. If nothing else, RFID could have spared Winona Ryder her recent and very embarrassing shoplifting arrest.
Prime time is your time.
Every cable and satellite television receiver will include a hard disk for recording shows, and those disks will have a minimum capacity of one terabyte, or 1,000 gigabytes, enough to store hundreds of hours of high-definition programming.
Except for special events such as the Super Bowl and the Academy Awards, no one will watch TV shows at the time they are transmitted, and conventional 30-second commercials will be rare because advertisers won't pay when most viewers can hit the fast-forward button. Major broadcast networks and traditional prime-time programming will be fading, with most entertainment sold through either a monthly subscription or a pay-per-view fee.
Finally, we can talk to our computers.
I'm recycling a prediction from 1992 that didn't come true this year but just might happen by 2012: Reliable speech recognition will allow computers, phones and household appliances to understand our spoken commands.
Driving alone down an unfamiliar interstate, it won't seem to odd to say, ``Car, how far to the next gas station?'' and for the car to reply ``Eight miles ahead at exit 37, there is a Chevron and a Union 76.'' You won't need to know or care that your car required GPS navigation, a speech-recognition processor, a text-to-speech synthesizer and a wireless data link to an online Yellow Pages directory to answer what seems like a simple question.
Not everything will change in the next decade. I predict the Mercury News will continue, printed on paper and delivered to doorsteps every morning. The business of putting news and ads together on newsprint has worked for more than a century and probably has at least a few more decades of life. As for me, if I'm still here in 2012, I'll dig out this column and give myself another report card.
The More Knowledge you have the Luckier you Get- J.R. Ewing
Driver: Car, how far to the next gas station?
Car: Eight miles ahead at exit 37 there is a Chevron station.
Driver: Is there a Mobil station there?
Car: No.
Driver: Are there any closer gas stations?
Car: Yes.
Driver: Where?
Car: Six miles ahead at exit 36 there is a Citgo station.
Driver: Are there any Mobil stations within the next twenty miles?
Car: Yes, there is one four miles ahead at exit 35.
Driver: Why didn't you tell me that in the first place?
Car: To keep the costs of the service low to you, we present you with value-added featured placements first. By the way, wouldn't you like a larger penis?
"How to Do Nothing," kids activities, back in print!
2) Have a lot of them turn out right
3) ????
4) PROPHET!!!
This page accidentally left blank
Jenna Bush, (R-texas) speaker of the house, was sworn in as president earlier today after the tragic death of President Jeb Bush, and vice president and consort, Kathleen Harris. The president was killed in a tagic suicide pretzel attack organized by the cuban branch of al quaida. The tragic news interrupted a beach front photo-shoot for playboy's Girl's of the Whitehouse issue.
On assuming the presidency, Jenna Bush abolished the DEA and ordered the whitehouse rose garden roto-tilled, and replanted with first class "presidential grade" Jamaican "hemp". In a slurred Inaugural speech she nominated Eileen Fleiss as Vice President, and called for Hot grits down natalie portman's pants. And obvious reward to the slash dot lobby that rigged the computerized elections for her father.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
He obviously hasn't thought this one through; he's claiming that in 2012, anybody will be able to steal your credit card and then walk out of stores with anything they want, and there will be no impetus on the store to actually verify that it is you? Doesn't sound like a viable business model to me! Winona would then just claim that somebody stole her RFID and still steal from Saks!
"Freedom means freedom for everybody" -- Dick Cheney
Between now and 2012, expect major controversy on whether employers, schools and advertisers should have access to your ``presence.''
I worry more about what the police would do with it. I also worry about what kind of blackmailing is possible if people can see online that I'm going to a dark alley downtown for something.
People hawk it as a matter of convenience, and a matter of safety. But you know, it should be my right to drop off the radar, and EVERYONE'S radar...
Even if only for a little while.
I am not a celebrity. I am not a criminal. I am nobody important.
Why do I have to be tracked like I am?
/^[A-Z0-9._%+-]+@[A-Z0-9.-]+\.[A-Z]{2,4}$/i
...but only if every mathematician who's ever worked out an orbital mechanics equation is dead wrong.
Shithead.
They that would sacrifice their
I admit that I haven't been following the latest developments in the field, but saying that recognizing speech and understanding the content are totally different things seems like an awfully bold statement.
I'd imagine that understanding the content is exactly what makes humans such cunning speech recognizers. Understanding can mean different things to different people, of course, but I'm sure that the first speech recognition machine to pass your test will contain at least some sort of semantic analysis to beef up the score.
Marko Karppinen
All his assumptions are based pretty much on what we TODAY consider to be desired. The fact is, in 10 years, we'll have changed our perspective so that such things, once past the gee-wiz phase, have evolved into more mainstream appliances, that do what we want them to do, and more importantly ONLY what we want them to do.
:) But better than the embarrasing situation where you've accidently labeled yourself a criminal because you misplaced that package of bubblegum when you were shopping.
:)
Everyone doesn't have a cellphone..... yet, but it seems to be getting that way quickly. You can't walk down an asile in the supermarket without seeing someone talking on the phone, usually about some useless, pointless conversation that is only occupying what free brain cells they have left, and leaving very little, if any, available for any other purpose, like not blocking the asile, or applying the brakes in an orderly fashion. More and more places are banning active cellphone use, mostly to appeal to the customers that find others yelling into the cellphone during a movie to be somewhat disruptive. And those of us who value our privacy will venture away from the option to be located anywhere at any time. The feature might exist, but very few people will probably use it, unless its necessary.
RFID tags are great, and it makes sense to simply walk out the door and have your credit card deducted for the right amount as you do. And if you accidently walk out with something you're not supposed to, it will let you know. If it was a simple accident, you have the option to walk back in. If it wasn't, you can still run..
Cable already SHOULD be advertising free. You're paying a monthly fee for the shows, you should get them without advertising. And if not for the advertising, they shouldn't care when, or how many times you watch something. As long as you keep dishing out the monthly fee, and you will, it should make little, if any difference. Its the dependance on advertising that's biting the cable networks in the ass, hence their bitter complaints about Tivo and the like. Rid themselves of the advertising beast, embrace the PVR, restructure their budget, and life will be good.
As for voice recognition, we got that today. Of course, there's an AI element that's lacking, but if the driver is willing to stick to a standard convention for command structure, most of what the author is predicting in 10 years could be done today with little difficulty. The simple fact of the matter is, 99% of the time, I know where the nearest gas station is. Only travellers need this information, and most intellegent travellers will fill up at the most convienent opportunity (i.e., not when they have 10 miles worth of gas left) Better for the car to simply inform me as I'm passing a gas station, knowing my destination and most likely route, that the gas station I'm passing is the least expensive one I will pass before running out of gas and therefore I should stop now to fill up. Screw asking the car about it.
-Restil
Play with my webcams and lights here
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Actually, your washing machine will negotiate will your day planner when the guy can come out to fix it. Then you'll renegotiate around all the things you don't want your day planner to know about. The your washing machine will email Sears, and the guy still won't show up that day.
Nah, "stupid" will just move up a notch and the stupid people will be that much more advanced. I mean stupid people today are driving cars, operating computers to some degree, and have a somewhat decent scientific understanding of things like germs cause disease, and evolution, and other things.
In contrast, Stupid People in the middle ages were illiterate and relied on a lot of superstition.
So future stupid people will probably be just fine with new technology. The problems will come when todays stupid people can't handle new tech, much like many seniors today and computers.
Future geeks will probably be just as aggrivated with these new advanced stupid people.
In Russia Soviet we have... errr forget it.
WWJD.... for a Klondike bar?
You have a great point here.
I'm waiting for Americans to decide which technologies give them more or better personal time, and which technologies invade and destroy it.
Cellphones can be a blessing. They can also be a way for our employers to extend office hours through dinner and bedtime.
Instant messaging has become a burden to me. Being available all the time for any priority of message is like moving your office desk or living room couch to the mall.
I want nothing to do with people-tracking technology. The folks I care to know where I am during my day do. I don't want strangers, the Pentagon's Total Information Awareness program, or the Bush Administration tracking my movements as if I'm some sort of migratory animal, thank you.
Let's make toolks for the workers, rather than turning the workers into tools.
This is my post. There are many others like it. If you don't like what you read here, go try one of the others.
Anyone check out his 1992 predictions (for 2002)?
:)
this year's hot Hollywood hunk, teen star Macaulay Culkin
Ummm... yeah. And he claims he wasn't full of it back then
Endless arguments over trivial contradictions in books written by ignorant savages to explain thunder in the dark.
There will be a pill men (and women) can take to remove the need for shaving. Trade named Depilorex, those that take the pill will lose all bodily hair and be referred to as 'smoothies' leading them to start a cult that worships the head of Steve Balmer.
After years of mis-understanding and accidental death, new Tablet PC's will come out that are chewable, in colorful Flintstone shapes.
Bill Gates will be a distant memory having been killed in 2006 in a bizarre accident when his computerized bidet malfunctions (a brief investigation can find no evidence of tampering and very little evidence of Mr. Gates)
Steve Balmer retires from Microsoft in 2005 to star and produce in a remake of the Battle for the Planet of the Apes. Mr. Balmer also becomes heavily involved with the smoothie cult as it's symbolic leader and introduces ritualistic clapping and hopping to the group before being asked to reduce his role and "just be the head"
Terrorism is a thing of the past when, in a 2003 CIA plot, the leaders of al-Qaida are clandestinely fed Depilorex and cannot look at each other without giggling and are too embarrassed appear in threatening videos.
The new head of Microsoft, an incomplete 6 year old Bill Gates clone hastily harvested from the scene of his death, announces (via a translator 'Mr. Wuzzy his Spokes-Teddy Bear') the switch to a new open source philosophy, introducing the new direction with a new mascot, a fuzzy green reptile called 'Opensaurus' and changing the marketing tagline of the company to "We wanna play too! "
Cake or Death? Cake Please!
Leave your phone at home?
I'm Rick James with mod points biatch!
The world ends sooner that 2012 according to this [yahoo.com] article.
Actually it reminds me of cars. They have lots of diagnostics built in, and check the engine etc, and then doesn't tell you about the results. Instead you have to go to the garage, where someone will read what the engine is saying, and repeat it back to you...
Dildonics matures, but is still too expensive for the average geek.
I would be more interested in the reverse. This means transferring matter into energy. Using something like that, our landfills would instead be raw fuel. Problems with lack of cheap power could be more easily addressed. Poroblems with overflowing landfills could also be more easily addressed.
Receiver fails to detect CC ID chip - customer gets hassled by security/alarms go off.
If it is not detected how would they know to hassle you?
However an aluminum bag (as the poster above suggests) would still not work because the RFID tag is *always* being detected by readers all over the store. Putting it in the aluminum bag makes it "disapear" from the system - which would lead to being hassled by security.
Receiver fails to detect goods/detects wrong number. Makes stock inventory no easier, overcharging and undercharging still a problem.
I don't know how big a problem detecting wrong numbers will be but even with such occasional problems (which happen with bar codes & humans as well) inventory will still be easier. The back wall of the shelving units will be readers that always know *exactly* what is in the store and *exactly* where it is. (They can print the reader antenna onto contact paper). The system not only knows that there are exactly 12 bottles of Cheer on a particular shelf but also that there is one moving down aisle three (in someones cart), one misplaced by a customer on the "impulse item" shelf near the checkout and one has mysteriously dissapeared when the above poster put it in an aluminum bag (the system duly notifying security). Such constant, hyper-accurate (hopefully), real-time inventory management is (one of) the real goals of the RFID tags - more convenient checkout is just an added bonus made possible by such super accurate inventory managment.
Well, in that case we had better watch out the next time 1 Reed comes around. (I think I have that date right. Anyway, the predicted return of Quetzacoatl.)
Last time it ended up being Cortez.
I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
So, let's say:
I live 70 years
I watch 5 movies per week (2 hours each)
one hour of high-definition movie is about 2 GB Then, in my entire life, I will consume something like 70 TB of data. Of course, maybe there will be 3D-surround immersion imaging devices... But eventually, we will be able to store locally all the information we can consume and produce. Storing more will be useless. Eventually, we will reach a point where more and better technology will be useless.
:-)
This reminds me something I read a long time ago: Knowledge Crash. Science progresses. It takes more and more time to reach the bleeding edge of science and improve on it. In the beginning of the century, you could write Nobel-prize class papers at 20. Now, you need to be a little bit older. Eventually, to improve on science, you will need a life-long study. And we will reach a point where human life will not be long enough to improve on humanity's knowledge. I know, teaching techniques improves over time, but even then, there will be a limit. The only way out will be a longer human life... or a limitless human life. But until Kurzweil's dream (read this too) become a reality, both technology and knowledge crashes are part of our future - and more technology will not be usefull anymore...
I wonder what kind of society we will live in then... and what being human will mean.
The AutoID center is doing field trials on using the RFID tags for inventory (but not I think for automagic checkouts) & I understand that the first real big order for tags has been made by one of the major consumer products companies.
If the triend continues we'll have half petabyte hard drives by then.
That's a big if. There have been numerous articles claiming we are nearing a thermal limit on recording density.
Won't happen. "Home control" has been possible for 20 years, and very few people bother. The system administration outweighs the advantages.
This will take at least 15 years. People don't buy new washing machines all that often.
All present and accounted for -- always.
This will be in mobile phones within 5 years.
Walk now, pay later.
Probably unfeasible as described. More likely you will authorize payment for the item before putting it in the bag. The receiver at the entryway will only check that you don't leave with any unpaid items. 10 years is about right, I wager.
Prime time is your time
Not very adventurous there. 5 more years.
Finally, we can talk to our computers
People curse them every day, so this is already reality.
I doubt true voice control will be there in 10 years either, unless there is a major break through in AI technology. Before that, we will be limited to simple voice keyed activation.
"I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them." -- George H. W. Bush
Won't happen. "Home control" systems have been marketed for 20 years, and have never caught on. The system administration takes more time than the thing saves. How many people even use the time clocks on ovens?
All present and accounted for -- always.
Truckers have had this for years. You can buy it for your car now. It will be a work-related thing, not a generally used feature.
Walk now, pay later.
Probably not, but things will go faster at checkout.
Prime time is your time.
Not if the MPAA can stop it.
Finally, we can talk to our computers
No way. We have speech recognition now. What we don't have are systems that comprehend natural language. We're no closer to that than we were ten years ago. If you like speech recognition, call TellMe at 800-555-TELL, which offers news, sports, driving directions, phone information, and movie tickets. Try to buy movie tickets in less than five minutes of talking.
Although I think life often sucks big monster peckers (I love my job, hate my boss; I make alot of money, but just buy more expensive shit, so I'm not rich, etc), I wouldn't trade the pain of trying for things or working for things just because I could have a happy button attached to my nuts making life much simpler. I hate pain and disappointment as much as the next person, but it's the suffering and learning from suffering that makes me who I am, and try to become who I want to be. I'll die trying on my own before I ever have something handed to me.
Spread the RC luvin'
Pushed submit button too soon. Sorry.
RFIDs on clothing? Wouldnt that make it easier for the people to steal stuff if the cashier element was eliminated?
No because they know when an item walks out of the store withoug having been paid for. Think you'll cut the tag off? No, There is no reason for it to be somewhere you can easily do so. Put it in a metalic bag so readers can no longer detect it? No, it is constantly being read by readers around the store. The moment it goes off the net security is notified that an item has "disappeared" and exactly where it was the moment before. No need to spy on you, they aren't tracking *you* at all, they are tracking the products so closely they don't need to.
I'm sure that the articles vision of zero checkout is a bit far out. There will be a checkout but you won't have to take your items out of the cart or basket at all, just walk through the checkout, take a quick look at the readout to check the total & list of items you're buying - select payment method & hit the approval button.
I'm suprised he didn't predict the fate of "Trusty Worthy Computing" as it's such a hot ticket item to discuss these days. Here are some questions I have on my mind:
- Is M$'s "Trust Worthy Computing" going to actually succeed or flunk? If it succeeds will there be a growing trend towards stringent enforcement v.s. those who openly and secretly defy Pallidium-style architectures? Will there be a new, strong underground movement of "black hat" hackers out to destroy any new tech trying to police content? Will DMCA become a "national priority"?
- Will the RIAA succeed in preventing all forms of "digital theft" using DRM + lotsa lawsuits, or will we still P2P file networks? Will the RIAA create a "new internet model" that would prevent individual artists from self-publishing their own works across the 'net?
- Will 64-bit CPUs be common, and AMD the one leading in this sector?
- Will Apple finally release OSX on x86 hardware?
- Finally the questions we all want answered:
Will Microsoft finally die as a huge behemoth?
Will it be killed by none other than Linux?
And...
Will Linux Desktop actually be easy to use?
Or will Linux(forgive me for saying this) become bloated crap by various distributions that must fit on 5 DVDs?
Or will Microsoft after dying release Windows source code under GPL in order to compete against Linux?(I can dream, can't I?)
Please follow up and add your own questions you are curious about!
"The 'How about a beowulf cluster of these?' joke finally gets played out."
d !
Steve Ballmer will be chanting:
Distributed!
Distributed!
Distribute
All those golly gee whiz bang thingys are all, well, gee whiz. Therefore they will be premium services. Moreover the extended warranty on all this crap will be more or less required because maintenance and repair costs for your voice reco AI internet aware wireless fridge will be astronomical.
Here is a hint: just because the phone rings does not mean you have to answer it. In fact if there is someone physically in your presense it is IMPOLITE to answer the phone unless you are expecting an emergency. (Your wife could go into labor at anytime, your parent is going in for heart surgery, your kid is late in bad weather. There are others, but those are the big ones)
If I'm in your cube and you answer the phone I will talk to your boss about that, unless you are in customer service they can get voicemail and you will call back.
Many people are surprized that I, a strong introvert like my cell phone. They don't realise that I'm not a slave to the phone, the phone is my slave. If I'm sitting between two beatiful girls and it rings, I hit cancle without even looking at it. (As a geek I've so far had one such opportunity, I might have blown it, but it wasn't by answering the phone) Manytimes when I could answer it I will just look at callerid and send the caller to voicemail.
...the average 3.5" 1/3 height hard disk will be storing more like one hundred terabytes, not one terabyte.
Even with that much storage capacity by 2012 it's likely MPEG-4 will be superceded by an even better video compression format, and we may be seeing a couple of thousand hours of 1080i 16:9 HDTV video stored on a single 100 TB drive.
Some of us, assuming we survive the fallout, will survive for another year as all macs can handle at least through 2040. Though maybe OS X cut that back a year.
T Money
World Domination with a plastic spoon since 1984
Not necessarily... Back at the turn of the century, there were 'doctors', and 'surgeons'. Now, there are hand surgeons, internists, gynacologists, eye/ear/nose guys, etc. Likewise, there used to be 'physicists', and shortly afterward there were 'theoretical physicists'... now there are high energy physicists, quantum physicists, particle physicists, etc.
Take any profession... expand it, through more knowledge and technology... you get to the point where you can have people specialize in barely-overlapping fields within the same industry - computer programmers vs. computer engineers vs. network engineers vs. helpdesk trolls, etc. Can your average programmer design a chip? Can your average chip designer program a GUI?
To view it another way, the age of the Renaissance man is well over... instead, we get the age of the specialized man, with more expertise in a chosen profession than any renasissance man could hope for.
-T
Rapid decline of oil production will start around 2012. The growth of an economy only works because we have lots of easy energy around.
If current consumption trends continue, the world will be having a serious energy problem. The world isn't going to end - we'll just start burning coal for electricity. So much for the environment, though. This is a direct effect of the current price of gasoline - high consumption. Much more effort should be put into higher efficiency alternatives and new means to generate large quantities of mobile energy.
I have no problem with people driving SUVs, but you should have to PAY for that luxury. I pay about $0.90/l (~$4/gallon) for premium in Canada. We are an net oil exporting nation, unlike the US. I would be much more confortable with a price about twice that - but how many americans are going to handle a $8/gallon price tag at the pump? That'd be no big deal with a 80mpg hybrid.
What does ANY of this have to do with the topic? I'd put big bets on technologies that allow for teleconferncing, remote work, etc. Telecommunications are likely going to become very valuable as they allow for productive work without much worker mobility. Likewise, technologies related to the more efficient combustion of energy are going to take off. The current model of north american society, commuting, etc - is going to end. It is just not sustainable.
Bonus to living here though - the US military machine will make sure the effects are felt everywhere else first. Another observation is Russia holds some of the largest untapped reserves of petroleum.
But hey, don't panic.
..don't panic
According to the legacy computer systems, whose calendar runs out in the year 2000, the world has already ended.
Ergonomica Auctorita Illico!
Today's CPU: 3 GHz
2012's CPU: 192 GHz
Today's RAM: 512 MB
2012's RAM: 32 GB
Today's hard disks: 200 GB
2012's hard disks: 12.5 TB
And just for fun...
Today's Quake III fps: 120 fps
2012's Quake III fps: 7,680 fps
I predict that if you are right, and "Stock ticker" commercials end up in vogue, it won't matter anyway, because most of the people watching the television programs won't be able to read the ads, since they'll be illiterate.
-- Terry
Speech recognition... hee hee hee...
Can you imagine speech recognition becoming so common it gets built into every computer?
It would be worthwhile paying for a 1U slot in a colocation facility, just to have a machine that has no purpose whatsoever, except to randomly scream out at the highest volume on it's sound card "SHUTDOWN NOW!" to the other machines...
-- Terry
Nothing so elaborate is needed. Americans already tune out reality with just a simple two-dimensional display device, with zero interactivity to boot.
Anyone remember Fahrenheit 451?
"I plunk the children in school nine days out of ten. I put up with them when they come home three days a month; it's not bad at all. You heave them into the 'parlour' and turn the switch. It's like washing clothes; stuff laundry in and slam the lid." Mrs. Bowles tittered. "They'd just as soon kick as kiss me. Thank God, I can kick back!"
The women showed their tongues, laughing.
--grendel drago
Laws do not persuade just because they threaten. --Seneca
...if you have a job where you can call in sick and not be summoned back (e.g., an ER doctor), you have no business taking a telephone into a movie theater in the first place.
You cannot apply a technological solution to a sociological problem. (Edwards' Law)
Last time I checked a 4.7 GB DVD can easily hold two hours films. So a 1TB HD gives you about 400 hours DVD quality video.
Almost every object we own that uses electricity will be connected to the Internet in 2012, yet we will rarely be aware of this near-universal connectivity, because so much of the conversation will be machine-to-machine communication.
You'll no longer be surprised to get a call from the repair center at Sears or Maytag saying your washing machine is using too much hot water and needs adjustment -- information the washing machine has sent through the Net, without any action of your part, back to the factory where it was built.
Why isn't the machine smart enough to self-adjust?
I don't want my appliances on the internet. Sorry for sounding paranoid, but I don't want my household habits monitored by other people.
RFIDs on clothing? Wouldnt that make it easier for the people to steal stuff if the cashier element was eliminated? So cashiers will logically have to be turned into security guards in order to watch you. So stores become more intrusive in spying on you.
No. You'd have a regular register set up for people who want to pay cash, and for those with an approved credit card, they can walk through a lane with a barrier, and as soon as it validates you, it lets you out.
mogorific carpentry experiments
Having every device connected to the Internet is rather unlikely for one reason I discovered a few months ago: IPv6, which is required for this to work, will get nowhere. Why?
Because ISPs make a lot of money rationing out the limited range of IPv4 addresses available to the world. As more people and devices get connected to the Internet, the higher the prices for IPv4 addresses will get. IPSs would rather die than lose out on the massive cash flow that results from controlling access to limited IP resources. Allowing a new protocol which allows everyone on the planet to have as many IP addresses as they want will kill the cash cow, and it just isn't going to happen any time soon.
When I leave for the second time, do I get charged again for the stuff I've already paid for?
I will conceed that the articles vision of completely getting rid of checkout lines is a bit far out but the RFID tags are a reality and they will allow for some very interesting things to happen. The checkout will probably consist of simply walking through the checkout, seeing the list of items, total & selecting a method of payment. In some situations perhaps having a bagger take your items out of the cart and put them in bags for you (which by itself resolves most of the security issues). But scanning the items & ringing them up will be gone. If you want to go back in and then out without being rung up again, don't forget your reciept and go out by the service desk to avoid getting charged.
There are more interesting possiblities. For instance you take a microwaveable burrito out of the fridge which notes that it is now one below the set minumum number of burritos & adds burritos to it's peapod.com order for the next scheduled delivery. You stick it in the microwave & press "auto". The microwave reads the tag, gets the manufacturers recommended power-level & time off the net & zaps the burrito. To get really creepy you sit down at the TV which knows you are now out of burittos and puts up an ad for the competing brand (the high bidder on the "just ate last burrito in the fridge demographic"). You throw out the empty container which goes to the recycling plant where the tags are used to properly sort the recyclables.
Now seeing such connectivity & automation in a typical consumer's home life is admittedly a little far fetched (though most of the things I mentioned have been done in demo's - including the bit with the hyper-targetted TV ad). However, you will likely see very similar scenarios occuring very soon throughout industry & the supply chain. Pervasive RFID allows you to extend the information revolution of the internet beyond abstract bits & bytes of information to include real physical objects. All the implications of such real-time networking of information about real objects are hard to imagine but are likely to be very significant.
if your boss uses it to find out you are not sick and actually going to see Star Wars 3, then you'll hate it.
If I have to lie to my boss about going to see Star Wars 3, then I'll already hate it. That's what "I'm not telling you" personal days are for.
Aliens will colonize earth according to Chris Carter.
Here's how I would grade his 2012 predictions:
Appliances: D
Appliances may do self-diagnosis, and there might even be some with option
to "phone home" but few people will avail themselves of it for several
reasons:
1. Too much bother to run the wiring and too expensive to do it with
wireless.
2. Too expensive to put in the machine in the first place, and most
appliances are reliable enough it's not worth it --- people will
opt for the cheaper ones.
IM: A
I think you're dead on with IM, both having it and the controversy.
RFID: F
There might be a variation on the self-scan checkouts that are happening
already, but you won't be able to just walk out the door and have things
charged to you. No one in their right mind would allow that sort of free
access to their bank account. You will have to go through a checkout
confirmation process of some sort. I would give it a C, but you
specifically said "walk now, pay later" and that's the part that I think
simply won't happen ever even if it's technologically possible.
Prime Time: B
I'm already there, though only with 1/10th the disk space. I expect I'll
probably be in the terabyte range in about 5 years. Rather than seeing
advertising disappear as a result, however, I think you'll see a shift to
product placement and creation of ads that are actually entertaining in
their own right, such as the old Taster's Choice serial ads, or the BMW
videos they're doing at the moment (though not that lavish).
You could be watching Friends, with a little "Pampers" ad on the bottom. This would allow for even more commercial time, and they could sell the time to sync to various moments in a program. (e.g Rachel is playing with the baby, roll the Pampers ad. They are in the coffeehouse, roll the Starbucks ad)
And all I'd have to do to block ads is take a strip of black construction paper and tape it to the bottom of the screen. Voila! Uninterrupted commercial-free TV!
And no TiVo hacking needed, either!
Then suddenly black construction paper is banned by the DMCA...
Cheers,
Ethelred
Everyone wants to be Ethelred. Even I want to be Ethelred.
First thought: 2012 as a year is as imaginary as 1984. But don't worry.
Minimal intervention---not no intervention. That simple, subtle difference is all that is required to keep humans in control.
No blame. All you're doing is exploring what could be, and thinking about it so that those of us concerned about the present don't have to (all that much...)
One word. Pervasive. An important word to understand.
Yep. Laziness is good. Leave what can be left to machines to machines, and leave the proper thinking to the humans.
I wouldn't be suprised if it happened today.
Already on its way. This is perfectly natural, and has, of course, happened with every medium of communicaition that I can think of. (Basically, people learn to get the most mileage out of any communication medium that they are offered)
Keep in mind the importance of being able to switch these things off. Privacy must always have its place.
Yep.
But it made great fun for the tabloid journalists
Don't bet on that. Letting the rest of the world decide what you want to watch has its uses (it saves you the effort of having to decide...)
Don't we do that already... (e.g. You F*****G piece of S**T!!? Why don't you F*****G well work?)
John_Chalisque
1. If you go see Star Wars 3, you are stupid anyway. I just broke down and rented that last piece of tripe, which I didn't go see in the theater out of protest because of Episode I. It wasn't even worth renting.
2. If your phone is on in the theater, you need your ass kicked anyway.
3. If you are dumb enough to sneak out of work to go see a movie, you deserve to be fired.
Maybe you were joking, but I guess a lot of the /. crowd thinks this way. Sad, really.
My beliefs do not require that you agree with them.