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Japanese Agency Plan for Robot Lunar Base
Dilaudid writes "According to these articles Keiji Tachikawa, head of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency sees a major role in the lunar base planned by NASA in 2020. 'As part of the plan Japan would use advanced robotic technologies to help build the moon base ... Japan's lunar robots would do work such as building telescopes and prospecting and mining for minerals, Tachikawa said.' Tachikawa was voted one of the 25 most influential global leaders by Time... I wish him luck!"
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"Tachikawa's plan follows a January 2004 decision by U.S. President George W. Bush that the U.S., with the assistance of partners including Japan, should build a lunar base by about 2020 and use it as a staging point for the human exploration of Mars."
Does this mean that the US and Japan will be working together on this?
This quote actually fits!!!
"All your base are belong to U.S.!"
"Tachikawa was voted one of the 25 most influential global leaders by Time..."
So was Oprah. (same year) For some reason this does not give me the warm fuzzies. Did Tachikawa have a talk show or something?
It could be worse, it could be Monday.
2025 seems a long time off, but considering Japan hasn't been to the moon yet. It's prolly pretty quick for them to get to the moon.
So the Japanese are going to take over the moon? Best of luck, god knows NASA isn't going anywhere anytime soon, what with their lack of funding.
Is it just me or is the japanese turning into a tleilaxu world?
--You saw the futur Mr Herbert--
See, I always knew that having a table for what planet you are from was a good idea for our customer user database. Its all part of my scalability plan. Heh heh heh.
"Japanese robots on the moon, is this the beginnings of post-colonial cyborg imperialism?"
When NASA was founded in 1958, Japan was really still recovering from Nagasaki and Hirshima, 13 years earlier. It wasn't until August 1967 when the reinforcement construction was completed on A-bomb Dome in Hiroshima.
Keiji Tachikawa's last name is the same as Tachikawa, a town outside of Tokyo, founded on December 1, 1940. Coincidence?
Japan and the US are now poised to build a very important part of human history together. It's quite moving, IMHO.
I guess it just shows you that no matter what happens, no matter what the evil stuff is, there always really is hope... unless the lunar space robots are really a ploy to get back at us? Fear the space robots!
The dangers of knowledge trigger emotional distress in human beings.
Somebody get Bruce Campbell, cause we don't take no shit from the machines.
Maybe it'll be interesting in 2019 (if it happens).
I hear some tribe in Borneo has plans for a 2120 launch of a man in orbit.
Of course Japanese robots will be working on the Moon. The Japanese are the only ones working on humanoid robots that have made significant process in all aspects of design. So you'll have your Honda Asimo to bring you materials, the Toyota Q'rio to put them together, and Gundam to ward off the Russians.
If countries were as serious about robotics as the Japanese are, the whole idea of a Moon dominated by Japanese robots would just be a dream. But Tachikawa is just stating the obvious. The sadly, Japanese are the only ones qualified to provide useful robots.
Have their robot dog go fetch a lunar paper? Or have Osimo dig a hole by dancing? Oh! WAIT! I know... the base will be used to construct a giant "LASER" for "mining" operations and then hold the entire world hostage for 1 hundred miiilllllllion doooooolaaars.....
Cliff Claven
K.E.G. Party Chairman
Founding Leader of: Koncerned for Egalitarin Governance
I can just see giant problems here. First you position all your supplies to build a moon base, and then you unleash semi-autonomous robots to build it. What happens next is nothing less than the total destruction of human life on Earth, after the robots build their moon base, slowly becoming self aware, and then deciding that all our bases are belonging to them. This is a BAD idea.
"Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!" - Glen Beck
It endangers robot life too much to be cost effective and sustainable to the robot public. Some robots have suggested that sending non-machine probes, automated by humans or perhaps monkeys is the best way to start space exploration in the fastest, cheapest way.
I don't think getting to the moon will be as trivial for Japan as many here think. This is a country who's space division is operating at a tenth of NASA's budget and has had trouble just putting satellites in orbit as recently as 2003. Japanese space technology has a long way to go before they go ahead with all this robot moon base business.
I predict the Lunar base will eventually be abandoned, leaving a bunch of robots on the surface mindlessly pushing piles of lunar dust.
These robots better have some clever way of getting rid of the magnetically charged, extreamly abrasive lunar dust. I had to design a lunar robot for a NASA contest, and that was the biggest obsticle. We just came up with some miracle "demagnatizing spray" that would blow off the dust. I'd like to see how they pull this off without made up technologies.
explain why Japan still kills hundreds of whales every year.
They are delicious.
Mine went more like
"I've seen things you people wouldn't believe... Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion..."
Appended to the end of comments you post. 120 chars.
Japanese robots on the moon, but no mention of the teenage girls that will pilot them.
I call shenanigans.
They really take the scenario to the extremes, and the focus is self-replicating nanotechnology rather than robotics, but it's a very interesting read.
Advanced Automation for Space Missions
Here is a good synopsis (the study itself is rather lengthy).
Slashdot quality declines as the number of hot grits posts decreases. - Provolt's Law, Apr-09-2005
http://picapic.net/media/F2CZ5WR84Q8GV4 :)
Looks like a toy.
Who needs people when robots can do the work?
Well, who _does_ need people when robots can do the work?
If it happens, we've been there before. About two centuries ago, the vast majority of, well, everyone was gainfully employed in agriculture. Today, in many parts, it's only part of the population - and in wealthy countries it is a small fraction. Yet agricultural output is larger than ever before, and the changing societies managed to absorb that huge pool of available work it got as a result.
I'm looking forward to the day when most menial, dangerous and physically wearing work can be automated.
Trust the Computer. The Computer is your friend.
Hope they name the new robots Megalon.
How else are they supposed to thicken their soups?
I'm looking forward to the day when most menial, dangerous and physically wearing work can be automated.
...and we'll be living in Caves of Steel.
They better make sure they build in those 3 laws...
-- Intelligence is soluble in alcohol
bah - overlords, of course!
-- Intelligence is soluble in alcohol
Automation is the wave of the future, and the Japanese are on the cutting edge of technology. Next question.
"Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!" - Glen Beck
I, for one, welcome our new Japanese robotic lunar overlords!
"The Cylons were created by man. They rebelled. They evolved. They look and feel human. Some are programmed to think they are human. There are many copies. And they have a plan."
This is the first resonable plan I hear about moon or mars exploration. Why send humans? It makes much more sense to develope space exploration robots with artificial intelligence. Once there is enough power production and a working environment for people, we can still send scientists and others to do what only humans can do. At the moment, sending a human to moon or mars would only be a survival experiment.
I'm looking forward to the day when most menial, dangerous and physically wearing work can be automated. Why's that? You trying to put a very large portion of humanity out of work? Without those jobs available for people to make a living, what are they going to do to support themselves and their families? You have to remember that science fiction is exactly that: fiction. Reality is not the idyllic place that it's made out to be in many stories. And it's not the dystopia that it's made out to be in many others. It's somewhere in between. So not only will robots not take over all the high-danger/low-skill jobs because of economic constraints, they won't revolt and try to kill us all. Though if you kick that damn robot dog one too many times it will start spraying oil on your shoes and bed.
I *wish* they had an actual boner for robots. We'd have hot, bisexual ninja sexbots for $299.99 by now. I mean... c'mon already, Japan!
"When NASA was founded in 1958, Japan was really still recovering from Nagasaki and Hiroshima, 13 years earlier. It wasn't until August 1967 when the reinforcement construction was completed on A-bomb Dome in Hiroshima."
Wow welcome to the self loathing guilt riddled world of the politically correct.
The truth is Japan was still recovering from their genocidal war of conquest that they lost. The war time government of Japan was not any better than Nazi Germany if you where Chinese or Korean. Even today the relationship between Japan, Korea, and China are heavily influenced by the brutal treatment the Japanese government inflicted on them.
By the late 1950s Japan had pretty much recovered from any physical damage from the war. It was no where as rich as it is now but they where no worse off than most of the countries of Europe.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
The prospect of colonization of the moon is exciting enough, I suppose, and robots are probably the right way to go, considering the general lack of atmosphere.
Terraforming doesn't seem to be the topic of a lot of news, lately, however... and this is what it'd take for the colony to really be more than just a "human achievement" and become a home....
MoM++ - A Classic Expanded - [Master of Magic 1.5]
http://mompp.sourceforge.net/
In the article (today) about glass produced in space being more pure I mentioned that a manufacturing facility would bring a HUGE boom to the US economy. This would put us back into the lead. We have not left the lead yet, but we keep slipping focusing on issues that really do nothing but damage to our moral, global image, economy, and split the country worse then EVER before.
If we could get an administration that is focused on the IMPROVEMENT our country, we would be MUCH better off.
Once Japan is in space with a manufacturing facility it would take us an ENORMOUS amount of effort to even COMPETE. We will lose.
We should have started focusing on this YEARS ago.
So what else should they have a boner for? Mindless celebrities? Reality television? At least they have a boner for something useful, unlike this stupid shithole (USA) where people live and breathe the daily idiocies of the famous and fuckheaded.
Because the whales deserve it.
NASA PROJECT MANAGER: Oh, for the love of God... where do you find these people? Alright, give him a desk next to Dave Chapelle and that politician guy who reckons he invented the internet. Tell him not to touch anything. And tell Lucas over on Token Consultant Desk #371 that he can stick his turbolaser suggestion up his ass.
Much as Russia has always longed for a warm water port, Japan has always needed a reliable source of raw materials. Their invasions of China and Russia, and their involvement in WWII, were all based on the limited resources of their homeland. The partnership with the U.S. has provided both a market and a supply of materials for the remarkable post WWII growth of Japanese industry. Space is the perfect answer to a continuing joint effort. I own a Honda and am convinced it is a superior product in every way. I see no reason to believe their robots will be any different. The Japanese are sometimes accused of being better copiers than inovators, at least when it comes to technology. That may be true, but we should also consider that many American companies have copied Japanese management techniques with great success. Traditionally the Japanese people have excelled at successful integration of large populations in small areas with limited resources. Their society incorporates complex and specific codes for individual behavior. In an artificial environment, such as a lunar settlement, the ability to get along in crowded conditions and the socialization of necessary protocols for environmental adaptation are powerful tools for success. The typical Japanese's willingness to give loyalty to the greater good makes them ideal partners in enduring the hardships of space exploration. Note that the articles refer to the Japanese contribution to a lunar colony centering on building and mining robots. Of course the technicians to maintain and control those robots will be a part of that contribution. It may be that in the long run, the lessons learned from the Japanese culture will outweigh the benefits of their technology. Personally I like the idea of a U.S. partnership with a society that is absolutely against the proliferation of nuclear weapons. It will make it that much easier for US to do the right thing.
billy - we have no space-based weapons...no really...we promise...really...
Scenario one. A guy with a hammer. He hammers nails all day, takes his paycheck and goes home.
Scenario two. A guy overseeing 20 robots with 20 hammers. He directs all day, takes a same sized paycheck goes home to his new home which was built at a 10th the price of the first guy's house because it was built by robots.
This is progress. This is no different than the fact that people aren't sitting out in cotton fields picking at cotton seeds all day anymore thanks to the cotton gin. There will always be some other work available.
The war time government of Japan was not any better than Nazi Germany if you where Chinese or Korean.
Becuase you all know how well The USA treated its own citizens of Japenses decent during the war. And fire bombing/nuclear bombing of Japan and carpet bombing of germany is ok. Yah i gotta say i feel guilty for some of the things my country (USA) did during that war, I think there aren't many countires involved that can think they upheld all of their values by the end of the war. This is not a reason to dislike one country but is a reason to dislike war.
unzip; strip; touch; finger; mount; fsck; more; yes; unmount; sleep
Remember, in the 1960s, the Japanese installed an electric railway system to replace their ancient, probably rice-husk-fuelled steam trains. The 1960s. It puts Virgin Trains, and even the Societé Nationale de Cattle Freight to shame. This technology was available in the 1960s.
NB, I'm not suggesting that the Japanese should build an electric railway to the moon {though, by using 60 cycles a second instead of 50, they probably could make sure the rest of the world were unable to use it}.
Couldn't have said it better myself. If I had mod points, I'd mod you up.
When I'm feeling down, I like to whistle. It makes the neighbor's dog run to the end of his chain and gag himself.
Shall I add the myth of Japanese Marketing to your list?
The new Century is going to be the Asian Century. Nothing last forever, or even a few decades even. Just accept it.
Surur
Information is the location of things. Computation is moving things around.
in Japan's defense wrt immigration: they have 127million people crammed into a land area (147500square mi.) smaller than California's(~33million).
They don't have millions of acres of farmland they can turn into housing nor giant aquifers they can drain for water, so this policy makes some good sense for their situation.
It may be a silly question but... Could a full scale exploitation of the Moon's minerals alter the satellite's mass and change its trajectory around the earth? Could that be plausible? We never altered our Earth's mass as almost nothing quit the planet. Cheers, Eric
Last time I checked, we didn't start the war, but we damn well finished it.
Take your self-loathing to someone who cares.
You can tell the character of a man by observing those who hate him.
Besides, the man with the hammer likely doesn't have the same degree of education of the man overseeing the robots. You go compare the relative levels of education of one of Henry Ford's assembly line men and one of the overseers of machinery on any of Ford's assembly lines. The same man could not do the same job. And that transfer of employment from man-run assembly lines to machine-based lines was part of the collapse of Motor City USA (i.e. Detroit, Michigan) in the 70s and 80s into one of the highest places of unemployment in the US.
"They are delicious."
No.
I thought the Chinese were in charge of building farming bots?
http://www.pterrys.com
Becuase you all know how well The USA treated its own citizens of Japenses decent during the war. And fire bombing/nuclear bombing of Japan and carpet bombing of germany is ok. Yah i gotta say i feel guilty for some of the things my country (USA) did during that war, I think there aren't many countires involved that can think they upheld all of their values by the end of the war. This is not a reason to dislike one country but is a reason to dislike war.
Why feel guilty? Feel proud man! War is brutal and demoralizing. World War II was no doubt one of the worst (WWI actually takes that honor IMHO), and every country that participated did terrible things to their enemies. The gloves were off, it was us or them. If it wasn't for the United States, we would all be speaking german right now, or worse perhaps, maybe Russian. We needed the nuclear bomb then probably more than we need it now. Without anyone to counter Russia it would have sliced Europe into pieces and the EU would have been the CU, that is, Communist Union. By launching a second (though debatably unnecessary) bomb, we were showing the USSR that we had the means to potentially take out a few of their cities as well in one fell swoop. Do you honestly think that the occupation of east germany would have stopped just there without our atomic weapons of mass destruction? The USSR was poised to keep on fighting and I honestly don't know if we would have had the resources and manpower to take on the red army at the end of WWII. Technologically we could have had an upper hand, but WWII was still fought more or less man to man and we were greatly outnumbered.
In any case, WWII was brutal, dehumanizing, and an awful display of what happens when humans become disposable for a potentially greater good. I can only hope (and I'm not optimistic given the current climate) that it will be the last great war. The last world war, but unfortunately, history tends to repeat itself.
Those who fail to understand history are doomed to repeat the mistakes that those have made in the past.
zosxavius photography
Only on Slashdot does a plagiarized post get modded up.
"Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!" - Glen Beck
Asimov explained the possibility of colonising other planets with robots (the Spacers originally did this but became lazy in time). The final idea was to use humaniform robots to sculpt the new world to human conditions before their arrival.
However, in order to do this the humaniform robots would have to be almost human (more human than human?) is order to fully represent a sample human population, i.e. breed, children, growth, etc. Elijah Baley went on to criticise this technique in that the humaniform robots would not give up the newly colonised planet in that they were human themselves, and would protect the planet (equal rights among human/robots).
The answer: both humans and robots will be required in order to fully use another planetary body for 'human' needs and ideals.
-D.W.
"Because you all know how well The USA treated its own citizens of Japanese decent during the war."
Yes what the US did was wrong. The Equal of what the government of Japan did?
NO FRIGGING WAY.
How many beheading of Japanese Americans did the Government of the US do? How many where forced to become "comfort women" for the US Army?
Want to compare how Japan treated none combatants that they interned? Probably not.
The US did not attack Japan first. The US was trying to use trying use trade sanctions and political pressure to get Japan to stop it's aggression.
As far as the carpet bombings and the Atomic Bombs. The number of Chinese and Korean deaths out numbers those by far.
"This is not a reason to dislike one country but is a reason to dislike war."
You see this is another BLIND KNEE JERK REACTION!
In my post did I ever say Japan? Did I ever say the people of Japan? Nope I said the Government of Japan. Specifically the war time government of Japan.
The war time government of Japan is to blame for the carpet bombings and the atomic bombings. Even after the first Atomic attack they where trying to negotiate for no occupation and they would disarm there own military.
The myth that is about preserving their Emperor is just that a myth.
I do not agree that one should not hate a government that carries out genocidal wars like the Japanese and German government did during WWII. I also disagree that by 1941 their was a peaceable way to stop them.
Had the victors of WWI had set up a "Just Peace" like the US wanted then maybe Hitler would have never come to power. The problem is it was not tried until after the WWII.
The thing we all have to remember is that the Japan and Germany of today are not the Japan and Germany of WWII. The other important thing to remember is even during WWII most of the people in Japan and German just wanted to raise there kids and live their lives.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
Scenario three. The 20 guys with 20 hammers got replaced by robots and are unemployed now.
The Cylons were created by the Japanese.
There were created to make life easier for the twelve NASA nations.
And then the day came when the Cylons decided to kill their masters.
Asimov explained the possibility of colonising other planets with robots (the Spacers originally did this but became lazy in time). The final idea was to use humaniform robots to sculpt the new world to human conditions before their arrival.
However, in order to do this the humaniform robots would have to be almost human (more human than human?) in order to fully represent a sample human population, i.e. breed, children, growth, etc. Elijah Baley went on to criticise this technique in that the humaniform robots would not give up the newly colonised planet in that they were human themselves, and would protect the planet (equal rights among human/robots).
The answer: both humans and robots will be required in order to fully use another planetary body for 'human' needs and ideals.
-D.W.
Will the robots be pink?
If they eventually come to kill us, will Yoshimi be ready? Has she in fact taken her vitamins?
The US might just win on the cuisine front, although the wine front is more ambiguous.
:) Americans in any decently sized city can find a wide variety of good food from many cultures, along with home-grown stuff.
:)
If you look at high-end restaurants, the US has some superb ones. If you look at "peasant food,"
And Americans have BBQ & beans.
Wine is more hit & miss, but some of the good vineyards are great. And, I've had some terrible wine in "wine countries," like France. It's just hard to compare these things, since it's not one product versus another, but a spectrum vs. a spectrum.
(Also, for those of you who think American beer is piss, why the hell do you use Bud & the like as a comparison... That's like taking Schultheiss or something equally wretched as representative of German beer!)
Anyway, I've found good food everywhere I've gone in the world, so all of this is largely moot.
it's funny you invoke "manifest destiny" because you sound like a racist
you're hanging your hat on assumptions about cultural differences that cut too deeply into basic simple facts about human nature
if you were truly a widely travelled individual, you would realize how much more similar we all are than different
the problem with some in the west today (not that other societies suffer the same misconceptions) is that there is too much of "muslim societies aren't ready for democracy" and "asian societies will lead economically because they are like a machine", etc.
all bullshit
this is patronization, condescension, and racism, and it all falls under the guise of tolerating cultural differences, when in reality the "cultural differences" that people allude to are nothing more than racist thoughts, quietly told
racism isn't only about derogatively attacking someone in another society, it is also about quietly thinking something about someone else in another culture that is heinous
some lies are quiet and placid, but equally evil in their effects
if you truly believe in universal human rights, in universal human dignity, universal accountability, responsibility, etc., then examine some of what you "tolerate" about other cultures... and see that in the end your words contradict universal rights, and you begin to sound more like a condescending patronizing racist than a tolerant person
simple test: if you believe something about another culture that cuts into simple truths about human nature, you're straying into condescension and patronization instead of tolerance
your words and thoughts become those of division instead of tolerance, because your ideas about other cultures are lies against universal human nature
we're all pretty much the same, really
and i am ashamed how for some in the west acceptance of "cultural differences" nowadays has become less a rubric for tolerating differences between cultures than it has become something for accepting lies about other societies that betray simple truths about human nature, ideas are usually told by others in your own culture to each other, and if you actually went to japan, for example, the people you are condescending to would not agree with your depiction of them, and laugh at oyu or feel embarassed for you
don't accept ideas about other cultures that are just lies against human dignity and basic human rights
study your assumptions carefully, and see which way your thoughts cut when it comes to different peoples in this world
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
from the terrible secret of space?
xenophobia hostile towards immigration
This is a common misunderstanding. Had you actually known what you were talking about, you would know Japanese immigration policy is much more lax than US immigration policy.
Feel proud man!
:) (j/k)
How can you ask a person to feel pride at firebombing Dresden and Tokyo (killing 100-200k people each), and nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki (killing about 250k total), when in each case the war was essentially over? Asking a person to view it as necessary is one thing (which I would strongly disagree, but that's not the point I'm making), but asking a person to be *proud* of the painful (and sometimes prolongued) slaughter of up to half a million people, most of whom were civilians, is appalling.
the EU would have been the CU
You haven't looked at Europe's politics lately, have you?
I agree, by the way, that the concept of MAD has been good for the world. That doesn't mean that we should be proud of using it, and using firebombings, to brutally slaughter huge numbers of civilians - even if one views it as necessary. It is cruel and unamerican. I think Truman himself said it best in his diary:
"This weapon is to be used against Japan between now and August 10th. I have told the Sec. of War, Mr. Stimson, to use it so that military objectives and soldiers and sailors are the target and not women and children. Even if the Japs are savages, ruthless, merciless and fanatic, we as the leader of the world for the common welfare cannot drop that terrible bomb on the old capital or the new.
He and I are in accord. The target will be a purely military one and we will issue a warning statement asking the Japs to surrender and save lives. I'm sure they will not do that, but we will have given them the chance."
(note that Truman, given his speeches in addition to his diary, seemed unaware that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were cities. No such warning, as Truman requested, was ever given, even after the bombing of Hiroshima before the followup on Nagasaki. We had two bombs, and wanted to try them both out on populated areas, even ruling out areas of vital military importance because there wouldn't be enough people there. Undersecretary of the Navy Ralph Bard took the same position as Truman did in his diary, in weighing in (repeatedly) on the usage of the bomb (even moreso, he was completely convinced by US intelligence that Japan was preparing to surrender even without the bomb, and a demonstration would have been plenty); he was ignored by Groves).
The War of 1812... the good 'ol days when the federal government actually tried to save New Orleans.
Scenario three. A guy with a hammer. He hammers in the morning. He hammers in the evening, all over Japan.
The War of 1812... the good 'ol days when the federal government actually tried to save New Orleans.
In some ways - not in others. For example, if you're applying for American citizenship, since when can they randomly show up to your house and rifle through your refrigerator, your clothes, your music, etc, to see if you're living a "American" enough lifestyle? They can do that sort of stuff in Japan when you apply for citizenship... As for immigration in general, difficulty varies depending on what status you want.
And don't pretend that xenophobia isn't common in Japan. If you disagree, you might want to speak with this man.
The War of 1812... the good 'ol days when the federal government actually tried to save New Orleans.
It'd be great to have a moon colony of those cute little blue spider things. Oooooh... Tachikawa.
-------
Incite and flee.
Keiji Tachikawa's last name is the same as Tachikawa, a town outside of Tokyo, founded on December 1, 1940. Coincidence?
150 years ago, when common Japanese people were permitted to have surnames (in feudal Japan, only nobility were given the privilege), many of them took the name of the place where they lived, or just names that sounded good.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_name
Coincidence? Hell yeah! Or is there some deep, possibly Zen meaning to December 1, 1940 of which I am not aware?
Do you really think the US will allow Japan to get to the moon first? The US will do anything to dominate the lunar surface first. Its is a matter of strategic and symbolic power.
Health Insurance Quotes
You could use, oh I don't know, something non-magnetic like, Nickel, Plastic, Aluminum...
Here's a situation: person A can build 1 house in 1 year, so he will charge the person to whom he sells the house 1 year's worth of "stuff" he needs and wants: payment for his house, food, savings, entertainment, some free time, etc. Now let's say person A builds a machine (using some of the 'free time' and 'etc.' included in the price he was charing) that allows him to make 1 house in half a year. If person A decides to still only build one house per year and take half a year off, he would probably still charge the original price to pay for his house, food, etc. Person A would probably tell you his quality of life has improved greatly, even though he doesn't have more money. Person A may decide to build 2 houses instead, in which case the price of each house needs to sum to what the person wants, but they don't necessarily have to go to half the original. Even if the person does take "full price" for each house, conceivably the person might not work for as many years and retire early (since he could have saved quite a lot) and the net production of houses he produced might be no greater than before - so there might not be more houses with the machine than without.
I hope this example shows that it is not clear at all how technology really affects the economy - it really depends on the individuals in that economy.
"There are a dozen opinions on a matter until you know the truth. Then there is only one." - CS Lewis (paraprhase)
they're not as cute and cuddly as whales.
I know! Whales are soooo cuddly.
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In his wonderful book Peace on Earth, Lem has banished all warfare to the Moon, where robot armies, in a self-evolving arms race, battle each other on behalf of their nations on Earth. Highly recommended, this book is a great joy and very memorable not just for the plot and action, but the philosophical meditations we expect from Lem.
you had me at #!
Odd then, that there is an ever increasing number of migrant farm workers in the US.
Why is that odd? That just proves the parent's theory. There are more migrant farm workers in the US because US citizens can't/won't/don't want to do the migrant farm work. If robots could take over this work we would use them rather than migrant workers.
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Japan is completely dependent on imported oil. Oil is presently peaking, and Japan is smart enough to see this (much as they saw they were deforesting their island too quickly several hundred years ago, and embarked on a process of radical reforestation and switching to coal - for more on this, see Jared Diamond's book "Collapse".)
It is calculated that there's about a million tons of Helium3 (He3) on the moon, and Japan would probably only need about 30 tons of it a year to power fusion reactors (The USA, consuming at its present insanely wasteful rate, would only need 45 tons per year) and that would give them electricity for the next several millennia.
So: set up robot bases on the moon that start melting the regolith for He3. Send it back to earth to the fusion reactors. Electricity right through the next ice age or two.
Maybe? Maybe not - but it's intriguing...
Here's a pdf on why He3 fusion is a good idea, and why it's not going to be easy:
fti.neep.wisc.edu/neep533/SPRING2004/lecture26.pdf
RS
Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
OMG I just had a telepahic experience here. That is only ONE CASE and I predicted that the link was going to be about the bathhouse in Hokkaido before I even clicked on it because that's the only one I ever hear about when it comes to xenophobia and Japan. Why do so many people pretend that xenophobia is common in Japan based on just this one case? This is prejudice, i.e. having a bias towards one opinion of Japan before starting any analysis.
If you live in the States you've likely seen the TV commercial "I'm American" where you have a bunch of different people, of different races, repeat that line. So you can't really pin down one personality against the US (comedians get away with artistic license, though) because it doesn't make sense to say so when there's so much diversity. Diversity not just in race but in beliefs and personality as well. In the same logic - and I'm not saying that you are doing this - it doesn't make sense to say Japan is xenophobic.
Permanent dual citizenship like they have in the US isn't allowed in Japan but so are they not for many other Asian countries and Japan's population isn't based mostly on modern immigration like the New World's. I'm confident that Japan is more lenient and constitutional than a country with a USA PATRIOT Act.
I hope this example shows that it is not clear at all how technology really affects the economy - it really depends on the individuals in that economy.
You forgot one principal in your example - competition. In reality Person A will either start selling his machine to Person Q, F and G, Person Q, F and G will create their own machines, or Person V will copy it and sell it to Person Q, F and G. Then Person Q will say, "Hmmmm... if I knock 10% off the price of this house I can sell more houses the Person A". Eventually the market will balance out and in the end the market price of the houses should go down.
We see this exact thing happening right now. House prices have raised, but so has the overall size and features of the houses. Sure, a new house is 3 or 4 times what a house was 20 years ago, but new houses also have 3 car garages, huge walk-in closets, huge master baths and all sorts of other cool stuff. Right now the 'average' family is living in a much nicer, larger home than they were in the 50s or 60s, mostly due to technological progress.
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Yeah, it's happened more recently than that too, at least in the UK.
1914: 80% of the agricultural workers leave their farms and go to die in a ditch in france.
1918: half of them come back expecting to pick up where the left off and guess what? Their jobs are not there anymore; they have been mechanised out of work.
Someone had still had to grow food while they were away, so they invented better tractors and farm machinery.
Society did *not* manage to absorb that surplus of labour, and it eventually contributed to the great depression.
the United States owns the moon.. I hope they are going to pay us rent.. ;)
-dirtbag
You are assuming that by becoming robot enabled he goes from a mild 10% profit on 1 house to a 110% profit on two houses. And then splits to maui.
But you are assuming that person A is the only person who can build houses at twice the rate. If every builder were robot enabled, the price would drop. He might only make 10% on each house again, which considering each house took half the investment, means he makes the same profit he did before robots became a factor. Except that there are two houses now, so society in general has gotten twice the benefit from the same amount of labour.
The problem is getting every builder robot enabled.
What they lack in fur, they make with in blubber.
You can have your god back when you are old enough to handle the responsibility.
japan's wealth today mostly relies on the resource it grabbed during WWII from those countries it occupied, japanese governors and their senate members constantly go to their evil temple. japan is not allowed to have an army but their military spending tops in the world. there's not enough space to let me list what evil things they are doing NOW! they are doing evil things, the world, be aware.
Uhh dude, my fiancee is Japanese? From Japan?
I love the country, and I love the people . Being xenophobic is not a bad thing, it's just the way things are.
Actually, I only ran into that page a couple weeks ago - he is a "poster child", so to speak, of such discrimination. Nonetheless, I've talked about the subject with a gaijin anthropologist with a focus on studies about Japan (Scott Clark), and he made it clear that you do run into that sort of anti-foreigner discrimination in places. He'd know - he toured essentially the entire country visiting onsen and public baths to write a book about them.
The War of 1812... the good 'ol days when the federal government actually tried to save New Orleans.
What they lack in fur, they make with in blubber.
Which also explains why I'm so cuddly.
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To be fair, the Japanese were quite hospitable in providing women for the pleasure of our troops during our occupation of Japan. So in this regard they only expect of the lands they occupy the same amenities they willingly provided their own occupiers.
As for the wanton killing of Chinese by the Japanese, to be fair that continues (although it rarely makes the news) under the current Chinese government today. Battles with farmers and factory workers on one side, and police and paramilitaries on the other occur frequently with many lives lost. Plus the Chinese execute thousands of people yearly on often minor or trumped-up charges. It's far, far worse than Texas!
Do you stock your home with Chinese-made goods? If so, you're helping finance the same sort of treatment of common Chinese people as the Japanese visited upon them.
"with their freedom lost all virtue lose" - Milton
All you guys get back, I'll be the first in line to go to the moon. I get the first 1960's moon buggy ride! If it still works. Last one in the sea of tranquillity is ugly.
NASA will be spanked with moon rocks. On the moon.
For America to succeed, we have to drive down the cost of living by encouraging companies to provide the same things for a much lower price. With the same salary, we should be able to buy more and get more done. That's what will make our country prosperous.
That's why outsourcing is good. We get a cheaper service, thus driving down the cost of doing business. Do some people lose their job? Yes, but at a lower wage, they will have MORE purchasing power with the cheaper goods.
Better yet, if the cost of stuff goes down enough, the price at which people are willing to work will drop accordingly. Thus, many of the jobs that are borderline for export will end up staying home.
In the future, I expect to make less money, but be able to buy far more things.
The radical sect of Islam would either see you dead or "reverted" to Islam.
This seems like a possible (if unlikely) concern, but even absent any formal understanding of physics, a simple thought experiment will show that orbit shape, speed, etc, are independent of mass:
Consider two masses - say, two astronauts - in orbit around something. They're just independently floating along right next to each other. Now imagine they grab ahold of each other. Will they suddenly fly upwards? Will they crash and burn?
Of course not! They'll keep going in exactly the same orbit as before.
Problem solved!
Oh, and by the way, earth actually gain quite a bit of mass from meteorites - several hundred tons per day, IIRC.
Also, the sun loses about 4 million tons of mass each second (turned into energy). I know this sounds outrageous, but look up the mass of the sun and do the math, and you'll be surprised to see that it can easily do this for ten billion years.
I for one welcome our new lunar robot overlords.
Without those jobs available for people to make a living, what are they going to do to support themselves and their families?
You are looking at it like there is a limited amount of work to do in the world and we have to spread it around so everyone has something to do.
I would say that by and large the world does as much work as it can manage to do. If there are available resources someone will use them to do something productive.
I understand that it doesn't always look this way on the personal level. But overall I would say it follows the unlimited opportunity and limited workforce model more then the opposite model.
I, for one, welcome our new Japanese moon-robot overlords!
I have been giving some thought to what some of the US leaders have been saying about immigration (esp. illegal immigration). If you ignore the racial rantings of such idiots as Tom Tancredo (sadly my representative), there is an interesting angle that many americans have not thought about. Basically, the illegals do come here and they take the low-end jobs that regular americans do not want. Considering that these ppl do not bleed the system (no welfare, no medical, no retirement, etc), but instead contribute to it (almost all pay taxes), it would seem to be fine. But the real problem is that by having these illegals come here, it discourages us from moving forward. If they were not here, then farmers would be paying much more for workers. Likewise, we would see dishwashers, construction workers, lawn workers, etc. get paid a great deal more. In doing so, it would encourage robotics for these low-end menial jobs. A good example is that at the Colorado Ski resorts, we need seasonal workers. But they may get lower hours if snow is bad and skiiers are cancelling. OTOH, if a fast or medium food restaurant were to use robotics for dishwashing, and cooking, then it would be lower costs overall. More importantly, it would allow the wait staff to focus on the customer rather than dealing with the back area.
Japan has the right idea WRT to doing robotics on the moon and esp. on mars. The ability to have 24 construction and exploration going on would be useful.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Wrong. US citizens don't do this work because the immigrant workers are willing to do the job for far less than US citizens will. The farm owners take the least expensive labor they can get.
Don't think for a second that if all immigration was cut off that the farms wouldn't be worked by US citizens. They would just be worked by US citizens that earn more per hour than what the immigrent workers make now.
Simple supply and demand.
Yes, the future of mankinds best hope is ...not mankind its 'robots' .. please
The Battle of Okinawa was one of the bloodiest of the Pacific, killed more people than Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and invasion of the Japanese homeland was projected to be at least 10 times worse.
While Hiroshima and Nagasaki were unfortunate, it prevented the need for an invasion that would have killed tens of thousands on both sides. In addition, a "public" target was choosen to illustrate to the Japanese people what would happen if their leaders failed to surrender.
Bombing an out-of-way military target would not have had the same effect, and could potentially be denied by the government.
What we "wanted" was to end the war, and to minimzie the number of our people that would have to die in the process. If such could be accomplished, AND a message sent to others at the same time discouraging further aggression, then all the better.
Any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.
wow, you are naiive. the Soviet Union at that time was on its last legs after repeated German onslaught. It was aonly a long cold Russian Winter that saved them from Nazi domination.
This all misses the point anyway. The real question is: Do you welsome our new Monn robot overlords. I for one.. do not..especially not if they were Nazi robots
"(note that Truman, given his speeches in addition to his diary, seemed unaware that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were cities."
Fantasy at its worst.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki where both military targets.
The actual drop points where both military targets.
There was not any target that was of military value that could have been hit without civilians being killed.
The idea that Truman did not know they where cities is just stupid. What he never looked at an Atlas?
He was never shown a map.
BTW the war was far from over. The invasion of Japan was likely to take up to 5 years to complete with millions of deaths.
Also Japan was in no way preparing to surrender. Documents after the war showed that the majority of there army was still in tact and that they where planing of fighting for years.
Japan was offered surrender terms before the first bomb and after the second. They refused to allow the occupation of Japan and the disarming of there military even after the first bomb. Even after the second bomb members of there military opposed the surrender and was so far as break in the the Palace to destroy the recording of the surrender by the Emperor.
Do I feel proud of what the US did in WWII?
Actually yes I do. After the war the US rebuilt the countries it had defeated. It treated the civilians with respect. Helped build them in to democratic states that are doing pretty well. The treatment that the US gave those under it's control be it POWs or occupation was much better than what Germany, Italy, Germany, or the USSR did.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
You know to what extent if (like me) you ended up there (Fukuoka - nice city) and saw a piano playing itself, with passers by just ignoring it..
Perfectly playing a number of lovely pieces. It really is embarrasing that a robot can play the piano so much better than me ... wven if it is all automated.. and all so hidden as well. the workings are all inside the piano. its like a ghost is sitting down playing it ...
Unless he has gotten one of those cool perpetual patents, and thus no one else can build houses in half the time. Thus Person A can reduce his price by 5% thereby cornering the market. Given that this gives person A a 45% profit above and beyond what any of his competitors get. This soon allows person A to start keeping the houses, and renting them instead of selling them. As person A's profits rise due to continuing income now that they are renting, and still building at a deep discount, they start to buy up the units that they do not own. Soon, they have a monopoly on houses, and can charge twice the price to rent that they previously charged to sell.
Moral of the story: Automation is not necessarily a problem, but bad "IP" law is.
So in 1914 they all go die in a ditch in France, then 4 years later half of them *come back*? Only to be surprised by the lack of demand for undead agricultural workers? There's a Penny Arcade cartoon in there somewhere!
Changing too quickly causes turmoil and economic problems, but, long term, automation is always change for the better.
It's also inevitable. If you don't change, you'll be conquered by those who do, economically or otherwise.
Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
Talk about living in Fantasy Land - I provided links! I provided links to the Undersecretary of the Navy stating that Japan was about to surrender. I provided links to Truman's own diary, and a transcript of his speech right after the bombing (what do you need to prove the point - audio?).
Truman directly wrote in his diary "use it so that military objectives and soldiers and sailors are the target and not women and children". He further wrote "The target will be a purely military one and we will issue a warning statement". Immediately after the bombing, he referred to Hiroshima as "a military base". Either he was lying to *himself*, to his private diary that wasn't released for decades, or he truly thought that we were going to bomb a, to use his words, "purely military target". Do you think he was lying to himself? Honestly?
Then you claim that Japan was in no way preparing to surrender. Obviously you know more than the bloody Undersecretary of the Navy at the time. Clearly you know more than the immediate postwar Strategic Bombing Survey, which came to the same conclusion post-facto as well.
Do I feel proud of what the US did in WWII (followed by your comments about reconstruction)
That's not what I asked, or discussed. Of course there is reason to be proud of how the US treated the defeated, and little reason to have expected such treatment from many of the other parties should situations have been reversed. The question was about whether we should be proud of inflicting agonizing deaths on half a million civilians when the war was almost over (firebombing the nearly unarmed refugee city Dresden, using firebombings on Tokyo specifically with the goal of killing as many civilians as possible, and wiping two cities off the map without warning and contrary to what Truman himself wrote he wanted in his diary).
Call things "fantasy" all you want, but if you can't face up to what was written and said, the only one living in a fantasy world is you. Truman wrote what he wrote. He said what he said. Bard wrote what he wrote. The SBS came to the same conclusion. These are facts; deny them all you want.
The War of 1812... the good 'ol days when the federal government actually tried to save New Orleans.
Japanese robots on the moon, but no mention of the teenage girls that will pilot them.
Everyone knows that they will be mostly be piloted by teenage boys with anger management problems, with a few teenage girls - also with anger management problems.
Some of course, will be incredibly passive, to show our inner turmoil over the use of such robots and provide us with inner dialogue.
Kawaii overdose, anyone?
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Japan is completely dependent on imported oil. Oil is presently peaking, and Japan is smart enough to see this (much as they saw they were deforesting their island too quickly several hundred years ago, and embarked on a process of radical reforestation and switching to coal - for more on this, see Jared Diamond's book "Collapse".)
It is calculated that there's about a million tons of Helium3 (He3) on the moon, and Japan would probably only need about 30 tons of it a year to power fusion reactors (The USA, consuming at its present insanely wasteful rate, would only need 45 tons per year) and that would give them electricity for the next several millennia.
So: set up robot bases on the moon that start melting the regolith for He3. Send it back to earth to the fusion reactors. Electricity right through the next ice age or two.
The thing is, commercial fusion energy production is always (since I was born in 1960 at least), twenty years in the future.
It was going to show up in the 1980s at the 1963 World's Fair (NYC).
It was going to show up in the 1990s at the 1967 World's Fair (Montreal).
It was going to show up in the 2000s at the 1986 World's Fair (Vancouver).
My guess is the next World's Fair will say it will be here in the 2020s.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Don't think for a second that if all immigration was cut off that the farms wouldn't be worked by US citizens. They would just be worked by US citizens that earn more per hour than what the immigrent workers make now.
No, the farms would no longer be a viable business entity and would be shut down. This would result in less product taken to market, driving food costs up. Eventually the market would reach equilibrium and the remaining farmers would be able to pay the prices for US Citizens to work the fields.
Anyone will work in a field if you raise the price enough. The problem is that expensive labor is making goods cost more than the market will pay. As a result labor from a weaker economy comes in and does the work. There are tons of people on welfare in the US that could be doing this migrant work. Why don't they? Because the farms can't afford to pay them more than Welfare is paying them. If we automated all of this work we wouldn't have any more unemployed people than we have now, we would just have fewer migrant workers from Mexico.
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The interesting thing is that prices go down because there is an oversupply, not because of the innovation. Note that in my earlier post where the builder got a machine, he didn't lower the price - he just had to work less. With an oversupply, either the price has to come down (which means working longer due to less retirement savings or having to build more than one house per year to get enough to meet needs) or, in the case where even at zero price there will be no more demand (for instance, everyone already has all the item X they want) one of the suppliers will have to do something else to meet their needs and wants.
The concepts here are that, with a fixed demand, if the supply increases the price will tend to go down. With a fixed demand and a fixed supply the prices will probably stay the same but may go down or up. With a fixed supply and increasing demand, price may go down (mass production) or might go up (increased demand for a scarce resource like oil). You see, with competition, anything can happen, because competition is not just between producers but also between consumers.
Note also that producer competition for limited consumers benefits the consumers but puts a drag on the producers. Since all producers are also consumers, this is a complicated effect. However, the reduced "drag" on the consumer due to the lower-priced good gives them a bit of a lift. I would be willing to wager that this is less efficient than cooperation between all parties, just as some energy is lost when using a clutch to match speeds of two rotating bodies - friction results in a loss when bringing the slower body up to the equilibrium speed while slowing the faster one down. One of the major factors here, I believe, is that -generally speaking- the capability of those that are primarily consumers to produce is less than those who are primarily producers, so increasing the "free time" of the consumers by reducing prices for certain of their goods will not increase wealth as much as freeing up the free time of the producers. (Note that this is speaking ideally of course - it neglects such things as greed or corruption). The solution to that is mostly rooted in education and politics, but I don't have a firm theory on that yet - other than it's probably related to some form of oppression of the "haves" over the "have nots".
All in all, the interesting side effect is that lower prices aren't really all they're cracked up to be - just ask anyone around you in production industries. Sure, everyone loves Wal-Mart pricing, but someone somewhere has a slower increase in their quality of living because of it (and, since the wealthy in this world pull some odd strings, the drag actually goes back to the consumers who are paying lower prices. Very strange concept, but that's how things appear to be transpiring).
One thing to remember, though, is that if nobody's willing to buy what you produce, you either need to produce something else, somehow convince them to buy what you produce, or you have to go without.
"There are a dozen opinions on a matter until you know the truth. Then there is only one." - CS Lewis (paraprhase)
Great, so we're not only outsourcing work off the planet, but to robot workers.
Japan's lunar robots would do work such as building telescopes and prospecting and mining for minerals
And giant robot overlords. I for one welcome our giant Japanese lunar robot overlords. All hail MechAsimo!
"You'll get nothing, and you'll like it!"
Your economics are obviously better than mine, but just an additional thought or two.
I don't think reducing prices is as much about increasing the "free time" of consumers as it is about allowing these consumers to consume more. The more disposable income a consumer has the more they can purchase from other producers thereby increasing overall wealth. In recent years this effect has been increased due to the Fed lowering the interest rates. If consumers and businesses can borrow more money they will spend more money, boosting the economy. Unfortunately, it appears this policy is catching up with us.
Wal-Mart is a poor example of lower prices due to the fact that many of their items are also of lower quality. Recently Levi Strauss decided to put Levis Jeans in Wal-Mart stores. The only way they were able to do this and keep their profit margins was to produce a lower quality pair of jeans. Sure, many name brand items are cheaper at Wal-Mart and are exactly the same as what you would buy in other stores. I've read some of the horror stories about Wal-Mart and their relationship with their vendors and I would agree, their lower price policy does hurt some people.
Getting back to the original discussion, technology has increased the standard of living in this country since the Industrial Revolution began. Things like indoor plumbing, electricity and telephone service have become standard at least partly due to increases in technology and decreases in costs. The Romans had running water in homes, so why didn't 19th century America? The manufacturing processes were much to expensive to make it practical. There is little doubt that the overall ease of life (I won't say quality) for the average American has increased dramatically over the last 100-150 years.
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I have known a number of WWII vets who used to talk about it. A number of them described our troops literally raping women in France, Italy, and Germany. That does not mean it was government sponsored or approved. But the officers did look the other way unless it was directly in front of them.
As to execution of civilians, again, we did a lot more than is acknowledged. That is not to besmirch the names of those that fought there. Quite simply, it was war.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Well, I for one bow to our Lunar Real Estate Development Robots; But can some of their duties be directed to creating habitable areas for those of us who are not so, "shiny"?
The Problem is that my sources are not on the Web but from a documentary on the dropping of the Atomic Bomb on PBS.
And YES I BLOODY WELL DO MORE THAN THE Undersecretary of the Navy did at that time. Gee I have access to all the surviving documents from the the Japanese war time government not to mention I know how the Japanese government reacted. Guess what? I also know more about WWII German jet, rocket and nuclear development than Winston Churchill did in 1944!
Ever hear that hindsight is 20/20?
The war in Japan was won. There was no way the Japanese could win. That is probably what the Undersecretary meant. The Navy really did not want the bomb to be dropped because it would have decreased the power of the Navy in the post war years. BTW it did, every service but the Air Force was cut to the bone after WWII. I am afraid that you are also ignoring the inter service politics of the times. The Strategic Bombing Survey was also part of that same rivalry. The Air Force wanted to show that Mitchell's doctrain of Strategic Bombing was proven. The Air Force was pushing the idea that Navys and even Armys where obsolete and that the Air Force was the single most important military force. Look at the date it was published and compare it the date the Air Force became an independent service.
You comment about Dresden is also a little off. I have no shame about Dresden because the US did not firebomb it. Talk about that to someone in the UK. The attack on Dresden was very nasty. It even involved the targeting of water and gas mains to make fighting the fires impossible.
I do not deny that Truman wrote what he wrote. It was in context of bombing Tokyo and Kyoto. Kyoto was spared because it lacked any military targets and was the cultural heart of Japan.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki where industrial cities with military targets. I was saying that thinking that Truman did not know the civilians would be killed is totally a fantasy. He knew the target would be in a city and that there would be MASSIVE collateral damage.
The only military target that would have been worth dropping an Atomic Bomb on that would not involve a city was anchorage of the the Japanese Fleet at Rabual. The problem is that Japanese fleet was gone so that target wasn't of any military value.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
b-but korea eat dog and copy cat :(
I believe they had automated pianos back in the 19th century or even earlier.
Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
I heard the USA has plenty extra Mexicans they could send to the Moon for free, just fire them up there with some shovels, tents and a wagon full of burritos. Hell, you probably wouldn't even have to bother bringing them back, just go down to the border at night and bag a few more.
Ever hear that hindsight is 20/20
:)
Bard and Truman's comments were foresight; only the strategic bombing survey was hindsight.
That is probably what the Undersecretary meant
Why don't you read what he has to say for himself? He was quite clear on his views that Japan was about to surrender; I can get you plenty more documents if you would like. The SBS proved that he was correct.
The Strategic Bombing Survey was also part of that same rivalry
The "the SBS was a fraud to gain more money" argument doesn't hold water, not only because of the conspiratorial nature of it and the lack of a contradictory study by any other department, but because the Air Force not only did stragegic bombing, but was, for a while, our nation's only nuclear force. If the US were to press more toward use of atomic bombs and away from strategic bombing, the air force would have as much to gain as it had to lose. It had no motive, as far as funding goes, to downplay the benefits of nuclear weaponry. But enough of interdepartmental military conspiracies
The US did not firebomb it
You know how you brought up the term "fantasy land"? You're back in it. The third wave of bombers was American: several hundred Flying Fortresses and a support contingent of Mustangs. More references available upon request. So eager to cast off any brutality done by us, are you?
It was in the context of bombing Tokyo and Kyoto
It most definitely was not. "Soldiers and sailors are the target, not women and children". "The target will be a purely military one, and we will issue a warning statement". Seriously, how can you be missing over this? Yes, he *also* said we cannot drop the bomb on Tokyo or Kyoto, but that was in a completely different sentence (and in the latter case, a different paragraph). Then, later, he says, in no uncertain terms, "The world will note that the first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, a military base. That was because we wished in this first attack to avoid, insofar as possible, the killing of civilians."
How can you misread this? It's plan and obvious language. Seriously - how many times does he have to say, in speeches or to himself, "we're not brutal, we're not going to bomb civilians" for you to accept it? Your concept *directly* contradicts his own statements - in his own diary, of all places!
The only military target that would have been worth dropping...
Please read the targetting committee paper that I already linked. They distinctly ruled out even considering military targets that didn't have sizable civilian populations nearby. Their explicit purpose was to make it as horrific as possible.
The War of 1812... the good 'ol days when the federal government actually tried to save New Orleans.
And in that situation, out of the original 20 guys with hammers, only one of them still has a job. What happens to the other 19?
It's funny how slashdot doesn't care about labourers being put out of work, but you can't hear yourself think for the screeching and bawling when IT jobs are outsourced. How is that not progress? Is there not other work available for the programmers? It seems that it's OK for people to lose their jobs as long as they're not American computer programmers.
Now to change the orbit 13 meters we have to remove 7.349x10^20 kg of material from the moon. That is 810,000,000,000,000,000 tons of material. If you were to unload 1000 tons a day it would still take 2,220,000,000,000 years to take that much.
...
So my original answer of no stands. We have nothing to worry about.
Actually, you forgot another thing: energy. If we use the moon's solar energy to power mass drivers to shoot material off the moon - in one direction (which involves having them ring the moon and fire in a sequence so they - say - shoot all material away from earth) - then the equation changes.
The action of removing the mass impacts the gravitational pull only slightly. The action of flinging that mass so as to push the moon towards (or away) from Earth would be a far far greater impact.
Not that it matters anyway, we're talking a long long long time before we would perceive such a shift, and we'll probably join the dinosaurs in mass global extinction when a rogue asteroid the size of Manhattan impacts the earth and shocks the climate with the fireball and resulting globe-encircling duststorm
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Actually, in the case of farm output and the industrialized countries, it's a little more perverse than that.
Decreasing output will not lead to higher prices, just a reduction in the amont of subsidies paid out. Only after you've reached the point where the output price matches the price you actually get will normal supply-demand mechanisms kick in again.
Trust the Computer. The Computer is your friend.
Scenario two. A guy overseeing 20 robots with 20 hammers. He directs all day, takes a same sized paycheck goes home to his new home which was built at a 10th the price of the first guy's house because it was built by robots.
Let's assume the guy is employed by a construction firm. The robots represent a decrease in that firm's costs.
Now, when a business realizes decreased costs, it tends to do three things with the money it saved:
1) Pass some, but not all, of its savings along to its customers in the form of lower prices (the better to compete in the market for customers)
2) Give some, but not all, of the money to its employees in the form of higher wages (the better to compete in the market for quality employees)
3) Give some, but not all, of the money to its owners / shareholders (the better to compete in the market for investors)
The main points are,
* The guy probably wouldn't take home the same sized paycheck. He'd probably take home a somewhat larger paycheck.
* Technology raises productivity, which is a win/win situation for everyone.
That that is is that that that that is not is not.
Did the racists get off the case scott free? No. They were found guilty by Japanese law. I rest my case.
Had the victors of WWI had set up a "Just Peace" like the US wanted then maybe Hitler would have never come to power.
And when Hitler invaded the Sudetenland, if Neville Chanberlain had nipped Hitler's ambition in the bud instead of appeasing him and emboldening him to try to take over the world, WWII wouldn't have happened.
That that is is that that that that is not is not.
You should check again. The Fly Fortress was not used for fire bombings. The Fortresses went after hard targets after the firestorm destroyed most of the anti-aircraft. The firestorm was at night correct? The Mustangs had no radar. They never flew night missions.
Your source on the Dresden bombing is... Bad to say the least. I suggest you pick up the book Lancaster. It has a very detailed account of the attack.
Also the SBS is also amusing. You should look at the section on the destruction of Japanese Shipping. They dismiss the amount of shipping the submarine force destroyed while inflating the toll that the B-29 took.
Also I can point out that nothing written by Truman or anyone else really matters because the Japanese documents themselves clearly state that they had no intention of surrender. So are you claiming that
1. That the American knew the plans of the Japanese government better than the Japanese did?
2. That Truman did not know Hiroshima and Nagasaki where cities?
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
The only difference I see in the two points of view above are that one side is talking about robots and the other side is talking about Mexicans, labelled "robots" and "immigrant workers," respectively. There is no disagreement about the economic mechanism at work (well, maybe the details).
Language students: Don't try to learn English here. This ain't it.
And yet overall unemployment is currently around 5.5% which is about as good as it ever gets, in spite of massive automation across the entire industrial spectrum.
Not only that, but average levels of education have gone up as well.
Sure, your dire scenarios would come to pass if we replaced our workforce entirely with robots overnight, but thankfully, that would only happen in a fictional story.
Any sufficiently well-organized community is indistinguishable from Government.
And in that situation, out of the original 20 guys with hammers, only one of them still has a job. What happens to the other 19?
They take their chances in a cold, hard world, just like the rest of us?
Any sufficiently well-organized community is indistinguishable from Government.
Hah hah! This reminds me of the time a friend was convinced that an asteroid could hit the moon hard enough to "knock it out of its orbit" causing it to "fall to earth". He was thinking that orbits are like rails, and are only precariously maintained. I tried to tell him, but he wouldn't listen to me...
:/
It may have been the same friend that thought planets could be destroyed Dragonball Z style...
So, you think it is Score:5, Funny now. Let's see you laugh when they set us up the bomb.
And presumably, the 19 guys who used to be swinging those hammers now hang around all day in their luxurious cardboard boxes, which is all the home they can now afford. It's the same story, over and over: we all used to be farmers, and when the farm jobs were automated, they told us to upgrade our skills to become industrial workers. So we did that. When the industrial jobs went, they told us to upgrade our skills again and become knowledge workers. Those who could, did (the rest sank into poverty). Now the knowledge jobs are headed to India, and it looks like we can't even look forward to having labor-type jobs to fall back on, thanks to robots. What are people supposed to do?
Sean
Actually, what you'll see is asset prices rise where the jobs disappear, and new prosperity among working people in the places the work went. It's fairly predictable: capital is relatively scarce in India and China, so its piece of the pie drops (the middle class and working people become relatively more prosperous, the income/wealth gap lessens). In the U.S., Europe, and Japan, labor is scarce (that is, lots of capital for each 'unit' of labor, compared to India/China), so its share of the pie grows. The benefits of trade go to the sectors ('factors of production' in economist-speak) which are relatively oversupplied -- labor-intensive in India and China, capital-intensive in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Information work is labor intensive -- educated labor (aka human capital), but labor nonetheless; labor and human capital are (relatively) in surplus in India and China, and scarce in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Formerly, the human capital moved (a.k.a. the brain drain), as did ordinary labor when it could, but with the Internet in place human capital no longer has to, we can trade instead.
In India and China, the new prosperity will be mainly spent on goods and services. In the U.S., etc., the capital-holders spend it on... more assets. What else are they going to spend it on? More lavish parties, larger mansions? So asset prices go up compared to other prices (housing bubble, anyone? Yah, yah, it's more complicated than that, and as much tax policy and interest rates as anything, but all the factors are pulling in the same direction for once.)
What's going on with outsourcing is really more like what happened to manufacturing and agriculture with the introduction of railroads; information-age work can now be moved around quickly and efficiently. Before the internet, communication (transportation) costs and time lag were too great to make anything but local production feasible for most information work. Note that this is not mechanization of the work, just an innovation in transportation technology. Mechanization of information work is also happening, but the picture's a bit less clear there.
It's a tremendous boon to the economy, but it may also spell the death of the professional (craftsman, to use the manufacturing term). Factory-type production really isn't efficient until the transportation problems disappear, which they just (in the last 20 years) have for information work.
Sorry, I don't have mod points but that's vary insightful. Robots do compete with the cost of available labor so an increase in automation for most of these unskilled jobs would reduce the flow of immigrants. The is a lot of research into automating things like picking fruit which might start to reduce the tide of immigration but because their labor is so cheep it's their is less innovation which is feeding back to keep the flow of immigrants open.
I guess that most hotels don't have automated carpet cleaners because of the abundance of cheep labor. So you can probably apply this to most of the labor work done by immigrant labor as well.
for a very long time.
Do you think their 'xenophobia' is due to some genetic trait they have? Might it be due to the fact that every inch of arable land has been farmed there for centuries and population increases have led to starvation there for a very long time?
If the only place to put immigrants were in your front yard, might you have a different point of view?
"France has more liberal immigration laws"
France has less than 1/2 the population of Japan and a great deal more arable (and buildable) land than Japan.
Scenario 4 - 20 guys hammering with 20 hammers 20 hours a day and a robot overseeing them... All have jobs and all are happy ...
Perhaps I can recommend a very well constructed and researched article on wikipedia. It appears to have a great number of quoted references, such as the Professor of Modern History at Cambridge University.
I can't speak to the rest of your assertions, as I do not know enought about the details of the American involvement in the latter parts of the War.
Your own source says that the Mustangs may have strafed the column. At no time where US aircraft ordered to strafe a column of refugees. It is very possible that some P-51s did strafe the column. They where under orders to attack all transport targets and frankly it is very hard to tell a column of refuges from a column of troops at 5000ft and 400 mph with people shooting at you.
The US 8th Air Force did not take part in the fire bombing. There doctrine was high altitude daylight precision bombing. The RAF was in to the night time area bombing. It is totally possible that B-17s where over Dresden that day. Odds are they where striking a factory or rail targets near by. The RAFs Bomber command and the USAAF where often at odds during the war over that very subject. The RAF wanted the US to join in the night bombing while the US wanted to stick to the daytime bombing. You see I have studied WWII history for about... 30+ years. The fact is that the USAAF could not be involved with the Dresden fire bombing because of the facts you have stated! The B-17s showed up the next morning. AFTER THE FIRESTORM!
I hate to say it but any UK source is suspect. The USAAF thought that the bombing of Dresden was not needed. If you want the documents you will need to go to Dayton Ohio to the Air Force museum and dig in their library. I WISH they had all their documents on line. They did not favor firebombing in Europe and only adopted them in Japan after the precision bombing failed. The UK to this day feels some guilt about Dresden.
The USAAF only adopted the night fire bombing tactic in Japan for technical reasons.
1. Japan had no effective night fighters.
2. A lot of Japanese war production was dispersed.
3. The jet stream made high altitude bombing difficult at best for much of the year.
Even after the night time fire bombing worked the USAAF kept going back to the high altitude daylight raids. Most of the USAAF was not really comfortable with the number of civilians killed.
Frankly none of that matters. Even with the bombings the total number of Germans killed by US and UK forces is much less than the civilian death under Hitler in countries he controlled. The same can be said of Japan. Also the US did not declare war on Germany or Japan until Japan attacked the US Fleet and Germany declared war on the US.
You can try and spread the guilt around about WWII but it is at best a lie. Germany and Japan started a genocidal world war. The governments and people with power where NOT VICTIMS in any way. A lot of people in Germany and Japan where victims but they where victims of their own government. Yes war is brutal but sometime the cost for peace is just too high. You want to judge guilt for civilian lives lost? Start with how many civilian under the protection of each nation lost their lives. It doesn't matter if they are citizens or an occupied nation.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
Sure, I'd love being serviced by English-speaking AI robots instead of illiterate, gibberish-speaking immigrants who hate America and only come here to rape the system for tax-free wages to build their peasant shacks back in the old country after slaving in the U.S. for ten years.
-1 for troll, but truth hurts, baby.