How Bad Will The 360 Shortage Be?

shrouded writes "Rumors have been growing the last few days about hardware shortages for the launch of Microsoft's new video game console this month. No one is speaking about it officially, but off behind-the-scenes whispering makes it sound like initial supplies won't even cover people who have pre-paid for their machines. eToychest spent the weekend asking retailers what they anticipate for the Nov. 22 release date, and its not pretty."

Comments

maybe they should just call it:

[yagu]

Maybe Microsoft should just rename it the Cabbage Patch 360, rake in their overinflated profits and be done with it. This stinks of marketing shennanigans; either Microsoft has really blown it on their ability to deliver in anticipation of trumping others' rollouts (disingenuous), or they're pulling the Cabbage Patch stunt to go for even more hype and mania around this product (also disingenuous).

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Jeff DeMaagd]

I don't understand the claim of overinflated profits if MS will likely be bleeding for a good while.

That said, I'd say just don't buy this if they are going to toy with the buyers like this.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[interiot]

Microsoft is bleeding for a good while because they choose to, because they believe it will net them greater profits long-term. Bleeding more isn't going to hurt them long term, unless everyone buys an XBox 360 and uses them as overpriced paperweights.

I'd say just don't buy this if they are going to toy with the buyers like this.

I wish it were that easy. You can similarly "just not use Windows", but that's not really a choice anymore either. XBox 360 is the only console that has a remotely cohesive online strategy. It has a lot of great game makers signed on, and for the hard-core gamer, outside of RPG's and weird games that Japanese obsess over, it has a better lineup of games than the PS3.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Golias]

I wish it were that easy. You can similarly "just not use Windows", but that's not really a choice anymore either.

Really? I choose to not use Windows. I haven't had a Windows box in my home in over a year, other than friends using my WiFi connection on their PC laptops when visiting.

XBox 360 is the only console that has a remotely cohesive online strategy.

Who cared about a "cohesive online strategy" when it comes to consoles. I'm no PS2 fanboy, but I always thought X-Box Live was a stupid concept, stupidly executed... and nothing about the networking support of the 360 leads me to believe it's going to be any better.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Sizzlean]

XBox 360 is the only console that has a remotely cohesive online strategy

PC online gaming is bad enough with some of the idiots you have to deal with. If the only thing to sell me on an XBox is a greater chance of being insulted by a kid half my age (and using a microphone) because I didn't cheat my way to the top... count me out. So is Microsoft paying Slashdot for all this publicity? There's been an article on the thing damn near every day for a month.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Gulthek]

What made Live stupid? I'm not a Live subscriber but one fee to enable connectivity for all games seems like a good idea to me. Better than the server hunting I used to do for Quake.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Golias]

What made Live stupid?

Several things.

1. It wasn't always one fee. For example, if you wanted to play PSO, you had to pay your broadband fee, the X-Box Live fee on top of that, and the MMO subscription fee on top of that. Screw that noise.

2. It wasn't terribly reliable, at least not at the homes where I saw it installed.

3. Many of the games didn't really offer enough value through the on-line experience to make it worth the money. Most of the best console games are, after all, designed to amuse 1-4 people in the same living room together. Being able to play DOAU against some kid in Florida is really not as much fun as being able to play against your younger brother on the other side of the couch.

4. In computer network games, you get to know your opponents and teammates a little bit though text chat. Since the X-Box has no keyboard, everybody is expected to chat with the headset mikes, but hearing eight people (including yourself) breathing in your ear for a whole game is annoying enough that most people just keep their microphones muted... which means nobody actually talks to each other, so PvP becomes just about as impersonal as playing off-line against the AI.

5. The real-world experience was really no better than with the old pick-up Quake games. I once watched my friend log in to a 4-on-4 Mechwarrior battle, only to see three players on one team immediately drop out as the game started, leaving the rest of the players with a stupidly one-sided 4-on-1 battle to play out. Almost the exact same thing happened on the next seven attempts to get a match going. Such frustrations are annoying when playing pick-up games on free servers, but to pay for the privilege of such crappy gameplay just flat-out sucks.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[MrScience]

Well, I'd say that Microsoft is working to address that problem (the one of annoying player matching).

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Khuffie]

XBox Live allows you to keep a 'Friends' list on your account, for all games. Meaning that say, if you start enjoying a certain group of people, you can add them to your friends list, see when they're online and join them. If the next game comes out, the friends list carries over, so you can play with the same group of people easily, without having to server hunt.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[interiot]

I choose to not use Windows.

Try working in corporate software development, and never touching Windows. It can happen sometimes, but at least in my company, you definitely have to do Windows stuff from time to time. Once Intel/AMD virtualization comes along, hopefully I can actually ditch Windows for everything except that I'm really forced to, without impacting my work productivity and having my boss complain at me.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Phudman]

There is a lack of dedicated servers for many of the games. Most games are hosted on a home broadband connection which usually does not have the upload capacity to hold many people in a game. You are essentially paying to host games with questionable quailty rather than paying for good hosts.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[superpulpsicle]

I have heard that the xbox live service runs the connection to a centralized server instead of connecting directly client-to-client like PS2. I don't know if this is true. All I know is that the PS2 connections are client-to-client for the majority of games and dropouts are rare. Slow if they have 56k, but still usable.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[interiot]

1. MMO's have always cost extra, but that's not really for the network connection, it's more for the database servers (maintaining usability with record locks that span tons of players is indeed much more difficult than 16-player games) and for occasional content updates.

3. And how many people do you know who played Quake 2, etc. obsessively? Clearly, for the hard-core gamer who might game enough that their friends aren't always available to play, or they game more often than their friends do, then online play is an absolute must.

4. Blah blah, who cares about impersonal? Humans are still smarter and less predictable than AI, and so are still prefered.

5. Agreed on that point. I've seen too many games lost because one schlub drops, and then 30 seconds later someone else drops because of that. On MMO games I've played, if you join a team instance, you've just dedicated 2-3 hours of your life. Is it too much to ask that people stick around for a 5 minute game??

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[king-manic]

Microsoft is bleeding for a good while because they choose to, because they believe it will net them greater profits long-term. Bleeding more isn't going to hurt them long term, unless everyone buys an XBox 360 and uses them as overpriced paperweights.

        I'd say just don't buy this if they are going to toy with the buyers like this.

I wish it were that easy. You can similarly "just not use Windows", but that's not really a choice anymore either. XBox 360 is the only console that has a remotely cohesive online strategy. It has a lot of great game makers signed on, and for the hard-core gamer, outside of RPG's and weird games that Japanese obsess over, it has a better lineup of games than the PS3.

Actually if you really want to hurt them. Don't buy any. they may lose X dollars if you buy one, but they lose X dollars + your purchase price if you dont' buy any. If you buy one they say there are Y units out there and this may sway game makers to start producing more games for them. They'd lose more money long run if you don't but any at all because it completely sucks up the R&D money without any spin games to play to count it as anything but a dismal failure.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Fred Or Alive]

Most Xbox Live games run peer to peer as well. The centralised service mostly runs things like the friends lists, the game finding services etc.

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Gulthek]

re: 2. I did play Splinter Cell 2 at a friends house for an afternoon. We never had a slowdown or dropped game, I was mightily impressed.

re: 3. But my younger brother lives 400 miles away, it would be more fun to play against him online than against an AI in the game.

re: 4. I tremendously loved the microphone in my play of Splinter Cell 2. My team and I plotted tactics ("You head right, I'll climb up here, at the count of five I throw a flash bomb and then you slide out and take him down." etc etc etc.) Extremely cool being voice-based, we'd have never been able to keep our tactics organized if we'd had to type and play at the same time. In Quake my chatting was done after I was killed (nice shot, etc.) or badly while on the run. With the voice chat I can play and talk, no problems.

re: 5. So you'd want the subscription to guarantee players or something?

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Tedium Unleased]

what the fuck is a cabbage patch 360, asshat

Re:maybe they should just call it:

[Anonymous Coward]

Hmmm, you may not have been around for the Cabbage Patch craze. Too bad. It was a kick to watch humanity trample itself to get their hands on some pantyhose with buttons sewn onto them.

Fallig for it

[turtled]

It happenes with every console, and Nintendo was the big one who mastered it. There will be enough, we always fall for it, and the proof is everyday on Slashdot. Everyday we hear about the shortages, and never from an official source.

Perfect example was the Nintendo DS last year. I got my hands on a DS early, thinking there would be a shortage. Almost everywhere I went, there they were. All JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAYS. Parents are probably shaking in their boots for their kids.

Re:Fallig for it

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't agree. From recent history in the North American market:

PS2 launched in short supply very close to the holiday season. Demand went up only slightly in time for the actual holidays. Many people didn't care anyways, since the whole first year of the PS2's existence was plagued with a horrible launch lineup of games. It is assumed that the short supply was an orchestrated move on Sony's part, but nowhere near the level of planning that MS is seen as architecting for the 360 launch.

GBA launched in good supply, in June. Supply ran as high as demand, which was also very high. Great planning on Nintendo's part. Everyone wanted them, everyone was able to get them, and people still wanted them and were able to get them through the holiday season. When the product is easy to manufacture and is of a high enough quality, no shenanigans are needed.

GameCube also launched close to the holidays. Supply ran as high as demand, which was much stronger in North America than it was in Japan. Few stores sold out (I only noticed that several Targets in the area had no supply come the holidays, all other stores were fine).

Xbox launched around the same time as the GameCube. Supply met demand, just as with GameCube. Nobody sold out, but supply ran very short with some Targets in the area.

GBA SP launched strong in late summer, supply met demand, and again, people kept buying them into the holidays.

Nintendo DS launched into the holidays and barely met supply, but it was adequate for the most part. There was a one-week period where few stores had stock, but in reality everyone that wanted one for the holidays got one.

PSP launched in early spring. Supply was abundant at many stores, nonexistent at some. EB, GameStop and some CE stores like Best Buy and Circuit City displayed prominent "Sold Out" signs in their stores at the same time that Target and Wal-Mart were neck-high in stock. Speculation at the time was that Sony had allocated few units to only these specialty and electronics stores in order to generate hype, while sending plenty of stock to the general goods stores to generate actual sales.

GameBoy Micro launched in fall. Once again, supply met demand. And in what may be a surprise to some pundits out there, demand and interest in the GBM were very high at launch. Sales of GBA software saw a surge in all regions for the month that the GBM launched, and sales of the unit itself have been strong. GBM has yet to see its first holiday season.

Xbox 360 will launch in two weeks. There are already reports from representatives at several retailers that detail Microsoft's plans to send out very limited supplies. These retailers run the range from specialty stores, to CE stores, to general goods stores, to online retailers. Speculation is that (A) the shortage is truly due to availability and real, but is necessary to meet MS's tremendous goal of a wolrdwide simultaneous launch, or (B) the shortage is artificial and planned, or (C) there will be no shortage, but Microsoft is astroturfing with a leaked rumor about short supply to increase pre-orders for bundled systems.

From this, I'd be comfortable drawing several conclusions.

1. Nintendo systems don't sell out at launch, because Nintendo wants everyone who wants their systems to be able to trade their MONEY for one. Nintendo doesn't play the long-hype/short-supply game, probably because the gains are so short-term and ultimately inconsequential. If that's what you meant by Nintendo being the master of this game, you're right. But somehow I don't think that's what you meant.

2. Sony tries to make sure that their systems sell out at launch. It worked with the PS2 but not with the PSP. They merely seem to be the ones with the most successful example (PS2). I don't think you could call them masters, looking at the way the PSP launch turned out despite their plans. (If the PSP had been released by any other company, it would have been seen as a fairly good launch - but s

Re:Fallig for it

[Anonymous Coward]

I disagree with saying Nintendo is the master. I'd say Sony was the true master. Every retailer where I lived had loads of PSPs at launch and after. Even so, Sony was putting out press releases saying everyone is sold out.

Re:Fallig for it

[Destoo]

Looks accurate..
No flame..
Quite detailed analysis..
Why the AC?

Thanks for the comments. Very interesting.

Shortage? Not of advertising.

[AndreiK]

Even if there is a shortage, I predict it will be extremely short lived.

Also, this is all artificial. Slashdot is proof of it - there is an advertisement every day on this supposed shortage - most of us even believe it now because its been drilled into our heads for so long.

Re:Shortage? Not of advertising.

[Anonymous Coward]

Of course it is artificial, and of course it will be short lived. Microsoft will probably be able to (somehow) come up with an extra Million units by December 1st; exactly early enough to sell a ton of units for Christmas, yet late enough for someone to have spend way too much money for one on ebay. That way they can have enough press on how much demand there is for the 360.

Re:Shortage? Not of advertising.

[Trepalium]

Exactly, so I'll say it again: "How much is Microsoft paying for this advertising campaign?" I've seen a story or two each and every day about the X-Box 360. If it's not about the supposed shortages, it's about how it's better than the upcoming PS3 and how it'll prevent the PS3 from claiming the #1 spot for the next generation of consoles. This kind of coverage cannot come cheap!

Does it matter?

[jclast]

Does it really matter if there's a shortage of 360s this holiday season. The current generation will still have games released for it, right?

So what if little Johnny doesn't get a 360 under the tree this year. If getting your child a 360 for Christmas is that important and you can't find one, just set the money aside and pick one up when more are made.

It's not as though these things will be in short supply forever.

Re:Does it matter?

[telstar]

If getting your child a 360 for Christmas is that important and you can't find one, just set the money aside and pick one up when more are made.

You either don't celebrate Christmas, or you've forgotten what a Christmas morning as a little kid is like. I'm 28 and I still rememeber not being able to sleep in anticipation of what I'd find under the tree the next day. To a kid that's fortunate enough to be able to celebrate Christmas, that day is magical because he or she gets stuff ... not the promise of stuff. As an adult, yeah ... I can grasp the idea of getting something when it's available, but that just doesn't compute for kids. Is it right to have a kid so hyped up over materialistic things? Maybe not ... but when I have a kid, but I understand.

Re:Does it matter?

[jclast]

If you don't think your kid could take waiting for a gift, couldn't you just as easily spend that money of something else for him/her? There are 5 other gaming systems out right now (PS2, GameCube, XBox, DS, and PSP), and they can't possibly have every single shiny thing they want. Not getting one present can't (or shouldn't at least) ruin the holiday for somebody.

And I don't know what kind of family everybody else grew up in, but when I was a kid Christmas was more about sledding, pecan rolls, hot cocoa, and time with the family than presents.

Easy answer: Don't be an early adopter

[PIPBoy3000]

Back in the early 80's, my father bought an Alpha Micro for $10,000. It was a silly purchase in retrospect, but he loved the idea of owning a real computer and hoped to put it to work in his business. He eventually did, though it took quite awhile. I learned programming and the rest is history.

What does this have to do with XBoxes? The crazy people who go out and buy one right away subsidize the cost for people who wait a few months and get it when there are actual deals to be had.

Re:Easy answer: Don't be an early adopter

[llevity]

But because of that early adoption, you learned a valuable skill and I'm guessing, now have a career based on it.

So early adopt more often! It might end up getting your kid a good job someday!

I'm more interested in the shortage of games

[IIDX]

I believe only two games have gone gold, which means a max of 2 games will be available at launch as of now...

Who cares about buying the system on launch day if you can't play the game you wanted yet?

Re:I'm more interested in the shortage of games

[Muramasa]

All EA titles coming out this holiday season plus all the 2006 sports titles will be out for 360 before Christmas no doubt. Plus 2 games from MS?

It's not pretty

[Anonymous Coward]

The blurb has a grammatical error. 'It's' is the contraction of the words 'it' and 'is.'

Practicality and Children

[Anonymous Coward]

So what if little Johnny doesn't get a 360 under the tree this year. If getting your child a 360 for Christmas is that important and you can't find one, just set the money aside and pick one up when more are made.

See, now it's just been too long since you've been a little kid. They're not going to die if they don't get the console, but they can't make such a big purchase on their own (hell, for $399, I'd like Santa to flip the bill on that one, but I will settle for a pony). There's something special about getting that big box on Christmas Day, unpacking it, and plugging it in.

Re:Practicality and Children

[jclast]

I didn't imply that the kid would buy one when it's available. I said that the parents should just set the money aside (since they can't hypothetically get a 360 with it), and then pick one up when they're available.

The kid gets the present, and the same money is spent (just at a little later time).

Re:Practicality and Children

[Anonymous Coward]

Maybe I'm just in a strange part of the world, but it seems to me that the vast majority of children under 10 years old aren't nearly as interested in videogames as I (or my friends/siblings) were at their age. The reason for this is simple, videogames have never been so complicated or difficult to play for children as they have been over the past 8-10 years, the colleco/atari/NES/SNES were far easier for people to pick up and play. What this means is that the 'kids' who are dying to get the XBox are primarly between 11-18; if they complain about not getting their shiny XBox on Christmas day I would (personally) sign them up to do volunteer at a local food bank / homeless shelter until they learned to apprieciate what they have.

Seriously?

[narrowhouse]

Are you really considering buying a product from a company that plans a shortage to build buzz? Granted they are not the first company to do it, but given the fact that you know in advance that you are being played, you are just going to go with it? Until the "shortage" is over you can pretty much bet you are going to pay top dollar, buy it after the price goes down and spend the difference on group therapy for game addicts ;). On second thought forget I said anything, it's your money, enjoy.

Why is a shortage bad?

[supabeast!]

Given the games likely to be available at release, I don't see how the shortage is a bad thing. What am I going to miss out on?

"Later that week"

[pnice]

The past supply estimate said

Best Buy: 20 to 60 Xbox 360s with a larger shipment coming "later that week."

So what's up with that? Are they going to make enough Xbox 360s to give all of the Best Buy stores more in less than 7 days after they get the first batch? That seems pretty impressive...at least to me.

Re:"Later that week"

[eurenix]

There has been speculation that Microsoft will attempt to create an artificial sellout. Rather than shipping out everything they can, they will only ship less than what they think can sell out in one day, simply to create a buzz. A little later, they will ship units that were ready for day one.

Ugh, how many times...

[rAiNsT0rm]

Do we need to have "OMG 360 shortage" stories?!?

We all know it is a ploy, if people would read Microsofts last stock talks from a week or two back where they basically explain that sales will be poorer than expected and that this is all part of their "rolling-thunder" campaign.

Everything is known at this point, how many units stores will get, that MS is *making* them ensure sell-outs, and that from Walmart/Best Buy the units have heat and power issues and the games are all pretty yawn inspiring.

All the hype is over now, the real story is known, we'll see how it all pans out in a few short months... let's leave it alone until then, shall we?

Re:Ugh, how many times...

[Anonymous Coward]

Is it time to start the PS3 hype. We can get a good 12-16 months out of it.

I'm sure...

[Gaima]

... it will be bad enough for me to not be able to get one the instant I want one, so I won't get one at all.

360 will be stupid

[Tachikoma]

dreamcast 4life

More from me...

[Tachikoma]

Because my last post was short.
this reminds me of the time cartman got that amusement park, and then wouldn't let anyone come in, so of course everyone was DIEING to get in, simply because they couldn't. The park itself was nothing special, but it was the simple fact that they were not allowed....

I'm not sure what bothers me more, the fact that this scheme is OBVIOUS and a bunch of bull-poop, or the fact that it's working....

Re:More from me...

[Braiba]

I'm not sure what bothers me more, the fact that this scheme is OBVIOUS and a bunch of bull-poop, or the fact that it's working....

Oh, please. Like 90% of really succesful ideas are completely stupid. I mean the million dollar homepage, for example, was an idea that required people to go to a webpage pureply to click on ads and yet it made the owner a rediculous ammount of money. It really seems that the best way to earn money is to just assume that the vast majority of people are complete morons.

d'oh! easiest way to raise the price...

[whathappenedtomonday]

...of a product is to make it more scarce on the market.
They gave away the first xbox "for free", and now they make sure this won't happen again.

Slashnews. Dots for nerds. Staff that mutters.

Interesting

[Shmoe]

It's amusing this article came up today

EB called me 3 weeks ago, told me I was in the first shipment. All good.

Today, get a call stating that I am number 25 of the first shipment and they're only recieving 18 units. They won't guarantee me a 360 before christmas either. (To their credit they said it was very likely, but they hesitated to use the word guarantee.)

Crappy. Good work MS. Bah Humbug.

Re:Interesting

[king-manic]

It's amusing this article came up today

EB called me 3 weeks ago, told me I was in the first shipment. All good.

Today, get a call stating that I am number 25 of the first shipment and they're only recieving 18 units. They won't guarantee me a 360 before christmas either. (To their credit they said it was very likely, but they hesitated to use the word guarantee.)

Crappy. Good work MS. Bah Humbug.

Your not going to miss much. It won't be till long after christmas before any decent games come out. Problably not till mid summer till HAlo 3 comes out and so far Halo is the only reason to have a Xbox. Maybe fable if you like that whole Morrowind on a console idea.

Re:Interesting

[hanabal]

or you could play morriwind on a console, an xbox even.

Here's one way to tell if this is a big MS Scam...

[PhoenixOne]

If they do sell out on Tuesday but, miracle of miracles, they get a huge shipment in just in time for Black Friday. If this happens, you can bet it was all a big scam.

And, if it works, I think we should make Jennifer Government required reading for all future marketing classes...

One wonders why.

[sycomonkey]

As far as I can tell, while being fairly expansive in number, the general quality of the titles available at launch is poor. I mean, it's expected, the Xbox 1 didn't have much during it's relatively short life, but as far as I can tell the only piece of software that could be worth the now-ludicrous $60 they're trying to extort from people for "NEXT-GEN!!!" games, is Kameo. Furthermore the genre-slice is virtually identical to the Xbox 1's library, and since I never found that FPS and Racing heavy idea of gaming very palatable, to the effect that I never bought the original Xbox, I don't understand how anyone could spend $300 (or worse $400) on this thing, and then go out and buy it's $60 games. Anyone who blows that kind of money on games this generic has more money than sense. I would love to play Kameo, but not for $360 dollars.

Re:One wonders why.

[Anonymous Coward]

Actually it would cost a minimum of $400. $300 of the 3-shitty (yes, the crappy version w/o HD), $60 for the game, and $40 for the memory unit since you didn't buy the reason 360. Oh and the 3-shitty won't be backward compatible either, oh well.

Re:One wonders why.

[Anonymous Coward]

"more money than sense"

So you have more sense than money?

Fine then, don't buy it BECAUSE YOU CAN'T AFFORD IT YOU POOR BASTARD.

Hope you enjoy that dinner you have tonight, because taxpayers paid for it, you wefare food-stamping loving dude, with great sense.

Re:One wonders why.

[macshit]

as far as I can tell the only piece of software that could be worth the now-ludicrous $60 they're trying to extort from people for "NEXT-GEN!!!" games, is Kameo.

I played Kameo for a while in the Tokyo (Aoyama/Omotesando) "xbox 360 cafe", and what I saw was pretty dull. Very, very, "Rare": technically and visually impressive, but with annoyingly generic and uninvolving characters and gameplay. If you've played Starfox Adventures on the gamecube, Kameo feels sort of like that, except the characters in Kameo are more bland.

Re:One wonders why.

[Anonymous Coward]

The only reason Kameo is even being hyped is because PDZ has turned out to be crap.

Which is a pattern for the pathetic 360 launch lineup. Something is hyped until people get their hands of it and report what a piece of crap the game is and then some other game is picked - at random?

Reminds me of...

[T_ConX]

...the PS2 shortage. Who are we kidding, executives go orgasmic when long line ups and riots occur because of their shitty products. Sure, if you wait a few weeks, you can get one... but WHY WAIT WHEN YOU CAN HAVE IT NOW!

Or better yet, get one of the first ones, and sell it on Ebay for thousands! Profit!

This could be a manufactured rumor, too...

[Malor]

Microsoft probably wants there to be a big buzz about shortages, to get more people to pony up and purchase the first day.... the rumor thus becomes sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. It would not shock me AT ALL if the source for this one is Microsoft itself. They want it to be special, scarce, and hard to find.

The way to combat the problem, as others here are mentioning, is just to ignore the console completely. There aren't going to be very many good games for it at first ANYWAY. The games aren't going anywhere. You'll still be able to play them if you wait until the consoles are easy to get. They're just graphical updates of existing games. They'll look fantabulous, but they're not going to play differently. It's just the same old shit with a facelift.

There's NO rush on this... the games will be just as much fun in February as they would be in two weeks, and they might be a little cheaper.

One Word

[vertinox]

Ebay

The thought crossed my mind about getting pre-orders under the names a bunch of friends with several EB, Gamestop, Walmarts to try to buy as many Xbox360 and then sell them on ebay at exploitive prices.

However, I never put that much effort in life towards money because of moral implactions, being lazy, and the fact I don't like to use Ebay.

Also my reasoning that this could be all hype and I could end up with a bank breaking debt worth of overpriced hardware that no one wants.

Rats!

[GrumblyStuff]

I should have pre-ordered long ago so I could be a douche and sell it on eBay!

Why MS Is Desperate With The '360 Shortage Hype'

[Anonymous Coward]

This is it for Microsoft and the console market.

About halfway through the first Xbox fiasco, Microsoft was ready to pull the plug on the whole mess. But decided not to and let the disaster run its course.

Despite what many Windows fanatics like to claim, Microsoft in no way has unlimited amounts of cash to spend. Even a passing knowledge of their number of shares outstanding and revenue growth makes that clear. The 360 is the 'one more chance' project for the Xbox team. There is no more freedom to blow billions this time around. Either the 360 can sustain itself in the market or the whole mess is getting the axe. The Xbox fiasco has been the number one issue with Wallstreet for Microsoft for the past four years. It is a huge problem for a company that has seen its stock languish for the past five years.

Well, things have been going, to put it mildly, badly for the 360. The Xbox team is fighting for their lives. They know the axe is ready to fall on the Xbox mess and they are trying anything, anything, to at the least give the appearance that things are going better than they seem.

I can honestly say I won't miss the Xbox when it is gone. Microsoft really needs to get back to basics. They have more important fights on their hands than futile dreams of controlling the living room.

XBOX Three Sucksty.

[Vinnster]

MS really does have some genious marketers.

1. Keep supply low, restricting sales to fanboys on initial launch
2. Fanboys talk it up. m@N! my 360 is s0 1337! j00 g0tta g3t 1!
3. Profit.

Genius. Bravo, Microsoft.

I played it at Wal-Mart for as long as I could bear it - 25 minutes, 3 games. How on earth are people lining up to pay USD $350+ for little more than an original xbox? I mean seriously... I swear I was playing at less than 1024x768 resolution.. oh wait. I WAS!

There is no discernable difference between the xbox 1, and the xbox 1.5, besides the resolution, and if you don't have the TV for it, what's the point? Think HD is _that_ exciting? fine. You shell out the bucks for the Suxty AND the 50-inch+ TV...

I'll spend the $400 on my computer long before the 360.

--Vin

There Will Be No Shortage

[GaryPatterson]

The units will sell out on release day, and probably there's been an artificial restriction on stock to ensure that.

But a few days later they'll be back. No-one could seriously believe that Microsoft will miss the holiday buyers, can they?

There will be no shortage, but there will be a few days wait for most buyers.

I'm going to sit this out for the first year, and then maybe buy one, if I like the look of Halo-3. I only bought the X-box for Halo-2, but then I upgraded to a PowerMac G4/450 back in 1999 because I thought Halo for the Mac was just around the corner. There were demos! At Macworld! Yes... I'm a long-suffering Bungie fan...

Two different 360 models -- why??

[muel]

If they're looking at an utter sellout this holiday, then why did Microsoft even bother with the "core system" / normal dichotomy? Seems like the move, which was designed to get the attention of mainstream/cost-conscious consumers in addition to the hardcore gaming crowd, is all but moot now that only the hardest of the hardcore, the ones willing to shell out for super-sized GAMES+ACCESSORIES+CABLES packages, will be able to purchase an XBox 360 this Christmas season. Smooth move, idiots.

Re:Two different 360 models -- why??

[llevity]

It's just so they can say they have a $299 price point. Nevermind that it will be 6 months before you can actually get one at that price, due to forced bundles.

How about this:

[WWWWolf]

No games for holidays.

Even if I had the money, I wouldn't be be buying a new console for Christmas. Nor too many games.

There's too much stuff on the market in the holiday time! Everyone's cramming their cruft to holiday markets! People are stressed! Prices are terrible! Everyone's chanting "buy, buy, buy!"

So what if people won't get XBox360 for Christmas. It's not like the world is likely ending midnight, December 26th. There's plenty of time to get one later on.

I was actually quite happy in March when I bought my Nintendo DS on release day - nobody was trying to grab them from my hands. I think the greatest time to buy games is just after Christmas anyway =)

Re:How about this:

[snuf23]

Yeah I'm completely annoyed at this pump it out for Christmas shit. I usually play PC games and all summer I futilely looked for something to play - and then whammo! Tons of good releases. How in hell am I supposed to play Age of Empires, Civ 4, Quake 4, Call of Duty 2, City of Villains, Black and White 2 etc. etc.
Grrrr.

Re:How about this:

[birder]

The beauty of the holiday season isn't that you play all the games at once but you get other people to buy all these games for you. Holiday sales account for the vast majority of a stores business. This is because *everyone* is out buying things. Companies that want to sell product therefore want to have their product on the shelf for the people to select.

Re:How about this:

[snuf23]

Yeah well I bet I just get socks!

Hmm.. didnt they the same about the PSP?

[AzraelKans]

If you check on the articles past year, you will notice every single article on the PSP predicted a shortage. Sony predicted a shortage, IGN, slashdot , etc. They even pulled "anti -shortage" schemes one psp per customer ,no change of PSP for dead pixels, etc. Does anyone remember having any problem to find a PSP on xmas? They do that based on PRE-SELLS only, and yes I bet there will be a "shortage" on pre-sells, since fans buy their stuff on those, but Alas regular people dont. Stores have bundles of those in the ware houses, and it turns out regular people wont buy them. So if you want one, dont "pre buy" it , just walk to any store and buy it, Im sure there will be plenty to go by.

Re:Hmm.. didnt they the same about the PSP?

[OpMindFck]

Yeah, I certainly remember having a problem finding a PSP in time for xmas. They decided to screw me over by releasing it 4 months after xmas. Oh, wait... did you mean xmas 2005? I don't think I'll have a problem finding one for this year, so i guess you're right.

Re:Hmm.. didnt they the same about the PSP?

[Fred Or Alive]

Well in the UK it's out in time for Christmas... 2006.

It's been pretty thin on the ground though, and my local Woolworths has a sign up basically saying "put your name down and we can send you one for you before Christmas".

minimum not maximum

[brkello]

I believe the word you are looking for is "minimum". If two games have gone gold then that is the minimum number of games the XBOX 360 will have at launch.

Re:minimum not maximum

[IIDX]

Well, there's always the posibility that a game that is gold may not be ready for the shelfs on release date (packaging, manufacturing, distribution etc).

Thus, if 2 games are gold, but don't get through manfacturing, or whatever, then you might only have one available.

I'm hoping that they have DOA4 ready for launch, but Tecmo hasen't said it will be.

Re:minimum not maximum

[Fred Or Alive]

I don't think DVD manufacturing / packagine would take that long, enough DVDs for the launch could be stamped out in a couple of days, and packaging could be prepate beforehand, I think the main issue would be shipping. But I think in this sort of situation they'll probably be able to get it shipped ASAP with liberal applications of money. I doubt Microsoft have shipped the consoles themselves yet, so it's probably just a case of distributing the games with the console. Although any games going gold in the week before launch itself probably have little or no chance of getting out on launch day.

(Oh, and didn't the Japanese launch of the N64 have about 2 games? I think a few other launch days in Japan at least have been thin on games, which is a problem the US and Europe haven't had before as we usually get the systems months later when there's a fair number of games ready).

I do think the Xbox 360 launch is going to be rather thin on the ground for games, but Microsoft should have some Kudos for getting the console ready for a (near) worldwide launch so soon etc. (Although I am suspicious that Microsoft may be exagerating the rarity of the console, but you never know, perhaps the stress of doing a worldwide launch does mean that they can't make enough consoles at the moment).

It could be worse:

[Anonymous Coward]

Like, I don't know, maybe having a food shortage?

Hype Hype Hype...

[bergeron76]

If the product was so incredibly good, they would let it speak for itself on it's merits. Word of mouth is the best marketing. How do you get "word of mouth" when your product is crap? Force Joe to tell Billy how he as one and Billy doesn't.

How Bad?...

[bucketoftruth]

How Bad Will The 360 Shortage Be?
It won't be too bad. I'm not gonna buy one :).

Microsoft Rule of Three's

[king-manic]

For anyoen considering buying a 360, remember Mircosofts Rule of 3's. Verion 1 will fail spectacularly (Xbox and a few billion down the tubes), the next version will fail in a less sucktacular way (360 will be a moderate success, firmly #2 and lose microsoft hundreds of millions), and the Xbox 3 will be a resounding success finally making MS some money. I predict the third product will come out in 3 years, making the 360 one of the shortest console lifespans since the saturn.

Re:Microsoft Rule of Three's

[Flyboy Connor]

I thought MS' rule of 3's was that at launch, the product actually was still beta and thus unusable, after the first patch problems got even worse, and only the second patch would make the product barely usable.

There will be no *real* shortage.

[Thatto]

Let me preface this by saying I'm not a console gamer. I had PONG and an atari 2600 when they came out. Since, I have found the console gaming experience lacking. Ok, Halo and Halo2 are badass, but hardly worth the cost of the Xbox and assorted other accessories... Maybe I outgrew them...

I have been reading and hearing about the 360 for a while. The hardware seems impressive. I can see a lot of potential for impressive physics, good graphics, and complex models. By and large, it seems the magic spell that Microsoft's PR department is casting is working. Gamers are abuzz with speculation and news of the 360.

There will be no shortage.

I worked at Best Buy when the PS2 was released, and I remember the same rumors of ps2 shortages. People were standing in line the night before. Families split up and stood in lines at different retailers around town. There was genuine concern that demand would not be met. My store had 80 to give out for opening day. Management told the prods (sales reps, product specialists.. whatever) that they were not to sell a ps2 without at *least* an extra controller, and a PRP (Product Replacement Plan). Best Buy is incredibly numbers oriented. Its not enough to sell a box, you have to sell a box "with cheese" i.e. with the higher profit items cables, controllers, PRP. Why else would a Prod recommend a "Monster Cable" surge supressor to ward off dead pixels? BTW Monster Cable costs about 25% of retail price. But I digress.....

My point is that the shortage was artificial... Every store got an allotment of PS2s (80), and the next truck had more (for us, 130). People were so relieved that they got a PS2 opening day, that they coughed up the dough for all of the extra crap that they were told they *needed*.

Maybe I am wrong. Time will tell.

Re:There will be no *real* shortage.

[(A)*(B)!0_-]

"but hardly worth the cost of the Xbox and assorted other accessories... Maybe I outgrew them..."

Nice troll. You snuck it in there and it appears no one noticed it. What does your personal growth have to do with playing video games? Growth implies a maturing. I used to enjoy hiking but have done it much less lately. Have I outgrown it? Video games are a hobby. If you want to look down your nose at people who play them, go ahead but don't come here to do it.

As for me, I look down my nose at people who work retail. You could easily be replaced with a robot and I would be much happier.

Re:There will be no *real* shortage.

[Thatto]

I was merely pointing out that I have since moved on to other hobbies.

Re:There will be no *real* shortage.

[(A)*(B)!0_-]

That is not what the language you used implied. You "outgrew" video games. You didn't say you moved on, what you said was you moved up. See the difference?

Perhaps you just chose poor wording, in which case you should have simply apologized for your error. Your reply ignores the fundamental problem with your post that I brought up.

My Store...

[Anonymous Coward]

I work at a "large Video Game Specialty Retailer". Let's call it "GameShop". From calling around my district, it looks like it's gonna be abouts 25% (Give or take) of every stores Waiting Lists will be filled. My DM has insinuated that the replenishment shipments could follow VERY quickly (I.e., Weekly). Of course, no promises ;)

Supply and demand

[91degrees]

Wouldn't it make sense to increase the price to reduce demand to the maximum they can supply, and therefore increase profits?

No doubt Microsoft are simply being benevolent to the gaming community, and any profit is secondary.

Re:Supply and demand

[llevity]

Uhm, that's what these bundles are all about. Last I looked, Gamestop.com still has some available, as long as you're willing to buy the ones bundled with a plasma TV.

Re:Supply and demand

[91degrees]

Which is good news for gamestop. Shame MS don't get anything from this.

There will be no shortage.

[hal2814]

If Microsoft tries to pull an artificial shortage, they are likely to draw the wrath of the big non-electronics retailers like Wal-Mart and Target. I've seen how Wal-Mart deals with big name suppliers. They are in the position to strong arm anyone and they usually do. If Microsoft tries to pull a stunt like this and Wal-Mart catches wind of it, there's likely to be a lot more shelfspace for Sony and Nintendo come December. Basically for Microsoft to pull off a fake shortage, they'll still have to supply the Wal-Marts and Targets of the world with plenty of systems. Then it won't be much of a shortage unless you're Best Buy, Circuit City, or EB/Gamestop trying to sell units.

Re:Why MS Is Desperate With The '360 Shortage Hype

[Anonymous Coward]

Exactly. Microsoft developed the XBox not because it wanted to get into the games market but because at the time (the late nineties) many pundits were predicting that consumers would never go for PCs and we'd be doing all our home internet access (and much more besides, as was the hysterical tone of the times - The Michael Lewis book "The New New Thing" has a good chapter on this) via set-top boxes plugged into our TV sets and Microsoft wanted to have a product to compete in what many believed would be a huge market. A games console seemed like a good way to get into the most homes fastest.

The predictions never came true, of course and I don't think anybody seriously makes such suggestions anymore. Consumers went and bought PCs and MACs. Broadband is fast becoming as much a staple of Western homes as the telephone. And any threat to Microsoft's OS dominance is not coming from set-top boxes or games consoles. I guess they've thrown enough money at it that they'll carry on for a while but the original business rationale is gone. I'd be VERY surprised to see another XBox after this one.

Maybe it's not so artificial?

[Tibor the Hun]

Considering that IBM only recently announced the beginning of production of the chips for the 360 maybe the shortage is more due to the chip supply than it is artificial.
Article in question.

How many chips can they make in a month? 10000, 100000?

Perhaps MS is about to learn why Apple switched from IBM.

How do you have time for an XBOX 360?

[ronjeremysjohnson]

I'm still working on a full WildHeart set, let alone starting on my Cenarion, how the heck am I going to find time for the Xbox 360?!

As bad as Billy wants it to be

[Tom]

This is an artificial shortage, so it's going to be as bad as it "needs" to.

Really, no karma-whoring today or I would've linked the 10 or so articles where that's all explained. Does /. get $1000 every time that xbox thingy is mentioned on the frontpage?

Re:Why MS Is Desperate With The '360 Shortage Hype

[Prophet of Nixon]

You make little sense. How is the xbox an entry into the set-top box market? They already had WebTV, and the xbox doesn't even have a browser. How does broadband becoming a staple of homes refute the business rationale of the xbox? It requires broadband to get online. If anything, that supports it. Have you confused the xbox with the dreamcast? The dreamcast could operate as a set-top box, had a first-party keyboard, and didn't require broadband to get online. Not that it was a major threat to MS; it had some of their software in it. I don't claim to know MS's business rationale or anything, but I think its fairly obvious that it wasn't to capitalize on the legions of PC-phobic 'consumers' who were afraid of computers and broadband. I don't even care what their business rationale is or was. What matters is the outcome. It may have lost MS money, but it has put a bit of choice back into the console market, made the first good online console gaming system, and it really spurred on their competitors as well. It was good for gamers, maybe better for them than for the manufacturer. I don't see the wisdom in releasing the 360 right now or in this manner either, but that doesn't diminish the original xbox in any way.