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Cringely on P2P vs Streaming Data Centers

Anonymous Coward writes "Robert X Cringely is postulating today that as bandwidth applications grow, the data centers will never be ready to serve 30 million concurrent streams of data. Akamai, with its tens of thousands of servers spread in an intelligent topology, still can't serve more than 150,000 concurrent streams, which is never going to impress the TV network exec used to audiences in the millions. Cringely choruses that secure P2P is the solution to delivering not only high quality video but also to audiences that scale in the millions. BitTorrent seems to have worn out it's welcome with the MPAA recently, so maybe the future holds P2P networks owned and managed by Hollywood?"

179 comments

  1. Change the paradigm by cos(0) · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Sure, currently 150,000 copies of data puts a large strain on the servers... what about one copy broadcast via multicast, much akin to airwaves?

    1. Re:Change the paradigm by afidel · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yep, but there has to be a serious profit motive for the network providers because they will have to do a LOT of work to get multicast working reliably across their entire network.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    2. Re:Change the paradigm by DeepHurtn! · · Score: 1

      Don't you mean "go back to the old paradigm"? Isn't the whole appeal of IP based content distribution to get away from that model? Content on demand, yada yada yada?

    3. Re:Change the paradigm by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 2, Informative

      Multicasting will deal with the challenge faced with distributing a single live event. However, TV networks are moving into Video On Demand as quickly as they can. They will have to probably invest in two distribution bases.

      1) Multicast for "Regularly scheduled programming"
      2) P2P for day after and future VOD distribution.

    4. Re:Change the paradigm by PunkOfLinux · · Score: 1

      I think a mix between streaming video and torrents would work pretty well for this.

    5. Re:Change the paradigm by Wesley+Felter · · Score: 1

      Or you could combine the two to create a sort of "push VOD" like Akimbo, MovieBeam, etc.

    6. Re:Change the paradigm by MMaestro · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Then how do you control it? Its the same problem with radio. At least with radio you make the majority of profit from sponsors and advertisement so theres no need to control distribution (not to mention the fact that its relatively cheap to setup a radio station). So its 'ok' if you have no control of who hears the content. (More ears = more audience = more sponsors)

      But when you put it online (multicasting, Bittorrent, whatever) how do you tell whats your audience? You can't track them, hackers would go insane and tear the tracking code out. Centralizing is too cumbersome (bandwidth costs would skyrocket) and de-centralization (Napster) only works if people 'opt-in' to whatever crazy system the company picks. The iTunes store does fairly well as a centralized system, but even Apple has admitted this, their profits are virtually a joke in terms of actual cash amount.

    7. Re:Change the paradigm by Wesley+Felter · · Score: 1

      You use encryption and locked-down client software/hardware like iTunes or Akimbo. (Of course, anything can be cracked, so your system only has to be more secure than DVDs.)

    8. Re:Change the paradigm by merreborn · · Score: 1

      But when you put it online (multicasting, Bittorrent, whatever) how do you tell whats your audience? You can't track them, hackers would go insane and tear the tracking code out.

      I know! Imagine if television signals were broadcast over the air, to cathode ray tube based devices with little to no digital components at all, and no way for viewing data to be sent back to the broadcaster?

      Oh wait, that's the way it's worked for over 50 years. And there's a multibillion dollar ratings collection company devoted to collecting data in this sort of context.

      Their first innovation? All the households they use for ratings participate voluntarily. Nielsen families *want* the broadcasters to know what they are and aren't watching.

    9. Re:Change the paradigm by moro_666 · · Score: 1

      how exactly do you count the number of television watchers or radio listeners ? it's easy ... you don't ...

      the tv companies have no ide how many people are watching them, they believe the poll results that are given to them by poll companies that are in close connection with them and therefor not objective ... there are automatic machines that can be placed between the tv and the antenna, but that only measures the looking statistics of people that really have this item installed (in my country there is a polling company that installs them, but since only very few people have it installed, it's again very far from reflecting the whole nation)

      one request to a server upon each 'start' of watching won't kill the servers if the content is coming from elsewhere. and is by far more accurate than any polling company can give you.

      ps.
      (not to mention the fact that its relatively cheap to setup a radio station). <--- my dearest, you obviously have no idea how much the licence to broadcast costs, ofcourse depends on the country but still , there are pretty many zeroes at the end of the number ...

      --

      I'd tell you the chances of this story being a dupe, but you wouldn't like it.
    10. Re:Change the paradigm by MBCook · · Score: 1
      Bingo. What, exactly, is the difference between multicast on the 'net and DirecTV? Both broadcast to everyone, both are only supposed to be used by paying customers. DirecTV does it successfully, so does Dish Network. And there are satellite TV companies in other countries as well.

      So why can't they do it with Multicast?

      As for figuring out how many people are watching, another reply has it right: we don't know now, so worst case scenario, what changes there?

      --
      Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
    11. Re:Change the paradigm by MMaestro · · Score: 0
      In a specially selected sample of homes, Nielsen Media Research technicians install metering equipment on TV sets, VCRs and cable boxes (and even satellite dishes). The NielsenTV meters automatically and invisibly keep track of when the sets are on and what the sets are tuned to. These meters are connected to a central "black box," which is actually a very small computer and modem. Information from the meters is collected by the black box, and in the middle of the night all the black boxes call in their information to our central computers.

      Quoted from http://www.nielsenmedia.com/whatratingsmean/. That doesn't sound like voluntary participation to me. And besides, it would be impossible to allow people to choose whether or not they have a Nielsen box installed in their TV/VCR/cable box/satellite dish. Every sci-fi geek would be opting-out ("zomg its Big Brother!") and every American Idol watcher would opt-in ("maybe I can be on the show next season!").

    12. Re:Change the paradigm by qeveren · · Score: 1

      The owner of the equipment still has to allow them to install the tracking gear. I highly doubt the Nielsen people have managed to acquire the ability to unilaterally enter your home and mess with your AV gear...

      --
      Don't just stand there, get that other dog!
    13. Re:Change the paradigm by MMaestro · · Score: 1
      What, exactly, is the difference between multicast on the 'net and DirecTV? Both broadcast to everyone, both are only supposed to be used by paying customers.

      What, exactly, is the difference between a taxi cab company and an airplane company? Both offer services to everyone, both are only supposed to be used by paying customers.

    14. Re:Change the paradigm by TubeSteak · · Score: 1
      The iTunes store does fairly well as a centralized system, but even Apple has admitted this, their profits are virtually a joke in terms of actual cash amount.
      iTunes is not wildly profitable because the Record Companies said "give us X% or we won't give you access to our catalogues"

      Apple got their foot in the door and is laughing all the way to the bank. They could lose money on iTunes and still be laughing, all because the iPod is making a killing.

      Now, Apple has enough muscle to tell the **AA to go pound sand and make it stick when the **AA wanted to raise prices in the iTunes music store.

      Independant bands & smaller labels get a smaller cut of the profits than the RIAA, but even that is still more than they would get if they were under a RIAA label.
      --
      [Fuck Beta]
      o0t!
    15. Re:Change the paradigm by alienw · · Score: 1

      You know, there is a science called statistics. And statistics can tell you how many households you need to get a certain margin of error for your measurement. As long as the households are randomly selected (not too hard to do), it's accurate to a percent or so even with a smallish sample.

    16. Re:Change the paradigm by La+Gris · · Score: 1

      Ask the multicast router about who get the feed. Already done by IPTV providers.

      --
      Léa Gris
    17. Re:Change the paradigm by merreborn · · Score: 1

      From the "Neilsen Families" page...

      "If Nielsen TV Ratings has contacted you, we hope you will participate"

      If that's not voluntary, I don't know what is...

    18. Re:Change the paradigm by someone300 · · Score: 1

      How about if for everything that's being downloaded, the server will multicast packets in a loop. I mean, so that if you don't catch the first five minutes, your computer will just keep downloading until it loops to the start again, and download the first five minutes it missed.

      Obviously this won't work for streaming, but a similar method could be employed.. in particular, it could start multicasting a movie every 5 minutes, so that you'll never be more than 5 minutes away from the start of a movie, and servers will be able to offer higher quality lag. Yeah, 5 minutes is a longer wait than desirable, but still quicker than going to the shop. Software could be used to figure out what movies are popular and adjust the broadcast interval appropriately.

      Just my ideas ;)

    19. Re:Change the paradigm by joecrawler · · Score: 1

      hey guys the taperecorder stole from records dvd ,broadcasters the p2p stole from everybody what is your point people will steal weather its from p2p or what ever some body will crack or hack the latest media that they said can not be cracked Any ways my point is people will steal any ways weather it is big companys or your joe at home

    20. Re:Change the paradigm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're a fucking idiot. Seriously.

    21. Re:Change the paradigm by localman · · Score: 1

      Wait a sec, there's no tracking code in analog radio or television. They do it by sample surveys. Why can't they do the same for internet multicast?

      Cheers.

    22. Re:Change the paradigm by ZachPruckowski · · Score: 1

      Piracy is tough to stop, but really, do you need to? You can make it free with ads in it. Sure, the ads may be worth less, but prolly enough to cover costs. And you can track it, and charge advertisers by download or torrent success.

      And hackers want to be counted. Honestly, they'd try harder, because we watch stuff like Firefly that we love and want to do well, but doesn't pull in numbers. So I'd be worried about the opposite effect: People downloading 2-3 times in order to boost a show's numbers.

    23. Re:Change the paradigm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have a point that will eliminate the need for P2P. Uhm... Who sells broadband? Like, a handful of companies? How many cable companies are out there selling broadband? 100? 200? Get them to get on board with multicast. Problem solved. Have a client smart enough to see if it's on the multicast network, if not, use the regular servers. Piece of cake. Millions served.

    24. Re:Change the paradigm by qbwiz · · Score: 1

      1. Get multicast working
      2. Save lots of money for bandwidth from the content providers to them
      3. Profit

      No need for a ???

      --
      Ewige Blumenkraft.
    25. Re:Change the paradigm by maxpublic · · Score: 1

      Not when the sample is self-selected, as is the case in the Nielsens. That *always* skews the data, as you would know if you actually had some experience working with statistics.

      Max

      --
      My god carries a hammer. Your god died nailed to a tree. Any questions?
    26. Re:Change the paradigm by danheskett · · Score: 1

      Statisticians also will tell you that you can measure the skew, and then account for it appropriately, and therefore overcome the selection bias.

      It's all part of the mix.

    27. Re:Change the paradigm by TheLink · · Score: 1

      It depends on whether you need lossy or nonlossy transmission.

      If it's lossy, you just send multicast UDP and hope for the best ;). Actually you may not even need multicast if you have enough bandwidth- sending tons of UDP packets each with the same payload isn't as difficult.

      For nonlossy transmission, it's a lot more problematic. There are a few ways:

      "Acks" and retransmissions. Even though ack packets from 150K users won't take as much bandwidth it still will be substantial, and you would use CPU and other resources.

      To do away with "ACK"s you'd require lots of forward error correction, which increases the amount of bandwidth required. Even if the ISP's can cope, the clients themselves may not have enough bandwidth.

      The other alternative is to keep sending the same stuff in a loop or staggered.

      I suppose for FEC, you could do it the UDP style, and users with more bandwidth can subscribe to a higher rate UDP stream.

      Of course one should be careful to design a protocol that also makes it hard for people to abuse it to DoS others (imagine if the protocol was spoofable and someone kept subscribing you to high bandwidth streams).

      --
    28. Re:Change the paradigm by billcopc · · Score: 1

      Multicast will also open piracy issues like the airwaves. If it's out there, someone will be able to grab it without paying.

      Now I wonder, how do the digital cable companies survive with their video-on-demand ? Isn't that essentially streaming MPEG-2 over your cable line ? They have far more than 150'000 viewers and yet everything runs smoothly. If Canada's biggest and dumbest telecom can do it (not Bell, the other one), then surely the rest of the world can do it better.

      I think one big problem is the network itself: routers can only do so much before they start to buckle. It's not like everyone has 10 terabits to the next transit node either. Perhaps there will be a specialized distribution model for streaming data and other lag-insensitive applications.. perhaps Akamai-style caching with high-speed satellite links instead of hogging the IP backbones.

      --
      -Billco, Fnarg.com
    29. Re:Change the paradigm by trezor · · Score: 1

      Whatever your point was, I'd like to point out that there are keys for punctuation on keyboards these days.

      --
      Not Buzzword 2.0 compliant. Please speak english.
    30. Re:Change the paradigm by maxpublic · · Score: 1

      Statisticians also will tell you that you can measure the skew

      And they'd be lying. In order to measure the skew you have to compare againt a non-skewed sample and correct accordingly. But in the Nielsens you can't do that unless you chart the viewing habits of people who...refuse to allow their viewing habits to be charted.

      The Nielsens have never been about good statistics.

      Max

      --
      My god carries a hammer. Your god died nailed to a tree. Any questions?
    31. Re:Change the paradigm by Jaime2 · · Score: 1

      The cable companies have it easy. All of their subscribers are on their network. All they have to do is keep one copy of the on-demand programming on, or close to, each node. No on-demand traffic goes over the backbone. ABC would have it more difficult because their subscribers would be on everyone's network.

    32. Re:Change the paradigm by MickDownUnder · · Score: 1

      Well here are a couple of good technical descriptions here and here. Basically for Multicasting to work all that is needed is for the routers between yourself and the streaming server to support Multicasting. The key question is what percentage of the routers out there support Multicasting ?

      The answer is not many. Many of the routers out there do support Multicasting however this feature is disabled ironically to reduce the work load on the router. All multicasting does is shift the work load from the server to the router, which does not scale for the exact same reasons unicast servers don't.

      I do think multicasting is probably the way to go, but it's probably quite some time away. When optical fibre networks and optical routers start to pentrate into the home market, then these technologies will become more realistic on the internet, until then.... enjoy your Fox box.

    33. Re:Change the paradigm by Koatdus · · Score: 1
      Take a look at the democracy software and take a look at the future of IP tv.

      http://www.getdemocracy.com/

      This a a beta software that uses a combination of RSS and bittorrent to help you find and download video. Even better they also have a piece of software to help you publish your video content.

      Broadcast Machine, which is designed to dovetail with Democracy player. Broadcast Machine allows anyone to publish video affordably using BitTorrent or HTTP, with an easy, blogging-like interface. Broadcast Machine is software for websites, so you'll need your own web server on which to install it.


      This is a piece of beta software so it is still a little rough but already there is some suprisingly good content (and some real junk). This is public access TV for a world wide audience that is open for anyone that wants to use it to create and broadcast video. It also can be either "corporate" or "artistic." It is only a matter of time before you start seeing product placement or maybe a small "sponsered by..." on the bottom of the screen.

      One other feature that I like about it is that you can set it up to check your favorite feeds on a regular basis and download new content.

      I would really like to see this player integrated into MythTV.
      --
      Every wrong attempt discarded is a step forward - T. Edison
    34. Re:Change the paradigm by jmilne · · Score: 1

      1. Get multicast working

      Which multicast? Setting up stuff like PIM-SM or SSM is actually not that hard to do in a Cisco or Juniper router. Managing it isn't even all that hard. I used to manage multicast for a big global ISP, and other than the occassional SA-flood from MSDP neighbors (which you wouldn't see with SSM), there wasn't too much to have to do, once you got everything set up correctly. However, there's issues with doing things that way. For example, your #3. Also, most of your consumer-grade equipment (the D-Links, Belkins, and Linksyses) aren't really going to support multicast, or have support disabled by default. A shame, really, since DOCSIS 1.0 and later are all supposed to support multicast (well, 1.1 and later. Some potential issues with 1.0) and that means a whole bunch of home users are primed for it.

      2. Save lots of money for bandwidth from the content providers to them

      It does save a lot of money. It's hard to figure out exactly how much. That lack of hard numbers causes a number of problems for companies.

      3. Profit

      Who profits? Let's say I'm the content provider. I've got a show that's sure to be a hit, and I want to get it out to the public. So I stream it out with multicast. Who's viewing it? Good question. Because I'm sending out a single stream of data. One person, 100 people, 15 million? I don't know. It all gets replicated somewhere out there in the Internet. I'm saving huge money on distribution costs, because I only need a T1 to get this show out to the public, but I have no idea how many people are watching. And my advertisers, those that give me the money to create this programming, really want to know who's watching. Then you start figuring out ways to get that information. Have the application send back data on who's viewing, how long they viewed the program, which parts they skipped, which parts they repeated, if they liked the show or not, etc. All that stuff that TiVo is reporting back on my current viewing habits. But that all ends up being single connections between the viewers and my systems again, and that's not going to be multicasted. Sure, it's still a lot less data than putting out the show unicast to everyone, but I can unicast it out today, and get information on numbers of people today because they're hitting my website to actually download it, and I can force them to register, providing me with demographic information. I need a lot of new software written if I want to get that kind of information out of a multicast distribution.

      The other problem is the network providers. They make money selling bandwidth. It's very hard to convince them to push multicast, because that means their customers will be using less bandwidth. Again, I managed multicast for a very large ISP for several years, and had a yearly battle with layers of management who liked the idea of supporting new technologies, but couldn't figure out why we should support something that would make them less money. There's a lot of dark fiber out there that's pretty cheap, so increasing bandwidth makes more sense to them than trying to conserve it.

      That profit part is really tough to figure out when it comes to multicast.

  2. The problem already has a solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    It's called multicasting. If anyone actually supported it, life would be great. We use it internally for live video and it's great.

    1. Re:The problem already has a solution by ExE122 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I think the key issue is that everyone is asking for flawless, high quality, on demand data streams. We currently have streaming broadcasts over a User Datagram Protocol.

      The difference between UDP and other protocols is that UDP does not ensure that packets are not lost. This works well for audio and video because if you miss a frame or two, you probably won't notice too much. This is the equivalent of broadcasting a signal over the air waves. Sometimes it'll be a little fuzzy, but you can still understand what's being sent.

      But like I mentioned before, UDP streaming broadcasts will not give you a high quality, 100% accurate and on demand data stream. That's why we're focussing on P2P instead.

      I think the worries over the datacenters is a bit unfounded at the moment. 10 years ago, using 1GB of harddrive space and ever needing more than a 14.4kbps modem seemed insane. But now things are different. And the cable tv to internet swtich won't happen overnight. I think our technology will catch up by the time it catches on.

      --
      Capitalism: When it uses the carrot, it's called democracy. When it uses the stick, it's called fascism.
    2. Re:The problem already has a solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mostly true, re:UDP, but remember that many protocols implemented over UDP do, to varying degrees, re-implement portions of the TCP transmission guarantee.

      I agree, however, that jumping the gun and worrying about the technology of distribution is a bit premature, when there is no business model that Hollywood et al are ready to get behind. Sure, this is a bit of an argument about the chicken and the egg, but ultimately there are multiple issues that Hollywood needs to solve or accept, such as DRM or the lack thereof, before the transmission method really becomes a real issue. Content producers are likely going to want to work those issues out on the small scale first, so transmitting data to millions of people simaltaneously will not be an issue immediately, for most applications and content.

      Studying future problems is always good, but trying to pigeonhole solutions based on today's technology, when the practical solutions will use tomorrow's, is always a little dangerous.

    3. Re:The problem already has a solution by Skrekkur · · Score: 1

      Actually you can make UDP reliable multicasting (at least much more so) with using buffering and traditional NACKS( negative acknowledgements) to request a resend of lost packet, this part can be optimized with requesting that lost packet from another client and thus merging this with p2p, but that isn't necesserily needed.
      Most streaming media (expecially video) will withstand some packetlosses however as long as keyframes aren't lost(there are ways to make sure they don't or at least reduce the chances of that happening by alot). May I also remind you that TV digital or not is not 100% accurate as it is and is in most cases not needed unless the case is you want to buy something online and own it in which case you will want to have it in perfect shape.
      That being said then P2P could help with that portion of media distributions, and we can see companies like blizzard starting to use P2P to answer the insane demand for every update and patch they make for WOW.

    4. Re:The problem already has a solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Add reed-solomon error correction on the content in the UDP-stream.

    5. Re:The problem already has a solution by konfoo · · Score: 1

      No. Add large-block erasure correction. RS will not save lost packets, only bits.

  3. BT and Hollywood by TheSHAD0W · · Score: 1

    Hollywood hasn't soured on BitTorrent itself, only a bunch of w4r3z tracking sites.

    1. Re:BT and Hollywood by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The article is an Internet troll the "anonymous coward" submitted the cringle article quickly, with a number of 'flamebait' comments, and scored a luccky hit, as Zonk was in the offices, and only cared that the link was somewhat interesting and didn't seem to be linked previously.

      As such, almost none of the comments in this article are about the article or it's text, but rather people replying to the flamebait in the article summary.

      YHBT HTH HAND.

    2. Re:BT and Hollywood by redcone · · Score: 1

      What is the primary reason for the MPAA going after torrent sites? They claim it is to fight piracy. I wonder if it isn't about shutting down a distribution channel that they don't control and are unable to effectively monetize because of the decentralized nature of P2P. Both the MPAA and the RIAA make their money by controlling access to production resources and to the primary channels of distribution. The death knell for the RIAA wasn't Napster, it was the advent of CD burners and multi-track recording software that ccould turn any decent PC into a recording studio. Similarly, the death knell for Hollywood isn't torrent. It is the increasing amount of home grown video content online and the decreasing costs and difficulty involved in recording and editing it. Every minute spent watching "jackass" style video clips, Jib Jab flash animation and other shorts is a minute of entertainment not controlled by hollywood. For now it isn't a threat to their business model--but the rules are changing quickly and it scares the hell out of them.

      --
      http://redcone.net
    3. Re:BT and Hollywood by TheSHAD0W · · Score: 1

      They're trying to fight a holding action, much like the RIAA is; and like the RIAA, they're being somewhat successful in keeping their revenue from dropping to zero. Whether it will work in the long run is questionable, but in the short run there's still billions to be made.

    4. Re:BT and Hollywood by shmlco · · Score: 1
      "What is the primary reason for the MPAA going after torrent sites? They claim it is to fight piracy..."

      Check out the contents of the average torrent site. Now you tell me: Is the vast majority of the content independently produced movies and music, or is it bootleg copies of the latest in-theater releases and pop tunes?

      People complain that Hollywood and the music industry make junk that's not worth watching or listening to, but apparently it's worth the time to find, download, watch and listen to... odd, don't you think?

      --
      Any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.
  4. What happened to all the... by Osrin · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ... multicast and proxy technology that we have spent the last 10+ years working on to solve this problem?

  5. Sell the keys... by LeDopore · · Score: 0

    Why can't they make a non-viewable DRM'ed version freely available for P2P, but then offer the keys needed to view the media through a direct download model? How is this not the best of both worlds?

    --
    Expected time to finish is 1 hour and 60 minutes.
    1. Re:Sell the keys... by mabhatter654 · · Score: 1
      Bittorrent is about freedom of information, not scoring somebody cheap bandwidth. The whole idea of Bittorrent is to make freely available content more available without taxing the orginal host to death for bandwidth charges. if I put one cool video up on my website i don't want to get killed for a huge bill because a bunch of people liked my stuff. bittorrent helps relieve that by sharing the load among all the downloaders. They got a "free" download and "share" a little upload in return.

      If somebody's trying to sell the next big blockbuster AND scam free bandwidth that's not how it works. Unfortunately, neither the hollywood suits nor the telco suits understand how the community works.. All they see is "$$$" and want their cut both ways. If they had it their way, we'll pay for BT "service" then pay for the DRM's movies while the movie providers "pay" for access to the telco BT network.

    2. Re:Sell the keys... by swilver · · Score: 1

      I'm not going to give away my bandwidth for free for a PAID system... Regular P2P works because giving away bandwidth gets you something of value. Commercial P2P will never work, unless perhaps you get something in return for offering your bandwidth to others.

  6. Figures by Kawahee · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "Akamai, with its tens of thousands of servers spread in an intelligent topology, still can't serve more than 150,000 concurrent streams"

    Assuming Akamai has only 10,000 servers, that's 15 streams per server. C'mon now, we're not that stupid.

    --
    I'll subscribe to Slashdot when I see a month without a dupe, a typo, or an article the "editors" didn't read.
    1. Re:Figures by eipgam · · Score: 1

      Actually, with some of the more interactive (read dynamic) streams that some multimedia R&D labs are looking to exploit even 15 streams being rendered in (or faster than) real-time is pushing it currently.

    2. Re:Figures by merreborn · · Score: 1

      Assuming Akamai has only 10,000 servers, that's 15 streams per server. C'mon now, we're not that stupid.

      Maybe they're just short on bandwidth? 150,000 HDTV video streams is a hell of a lot of bits per second. Actually, it's 1/3rd of a terrabyte/sec, or so.

      I'm willing to bet that akamai's more focused on sending large numbers of people 10k files periodically, than sending 18 mb/s video streams.

  7. The future is peer. by soupdevil · · Score: 2, Informative

    Content creators and content consumers are becoming one and the same. You can see this every day on sites like Jamendo and Flickr.

    1. Re:The future is peer. by stubear · · Score: 1

      No, they're not. 'Content consumers turned content creators' is nothing new, they just have a platform to distribute their work more easily now. This in no way suggests quality of work , it merely increases the signal to noise ratio.

    2. Re:The future is peer. by soupdevil · · Score: 1

      The distribution is the new part. Distribution by a major corporation doesn't suggest quality of work either. Filters are necessary, but monolithic corporations are only one kind of filter. Tags, ratings and reviews are alternatives, and more will be on the way, I'm sure.

    3. Re:The future is peer. by jrockway · · Score: 1

      What's so "high-quality" about "Desperate Housewives" or "Lost"? Most of the photos on Flikr are infinitely more interesting than the crappy TV that's forcing us to have DRM-ed everything.

      --
      My other car is first.
  8. Can we just get it over with by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Can we just get it over with and get a cringely section? I really, really don't fucking want to have to be continually bothered with the verbal diahhrea of an idiot who's given a nationally syndicated column and then uses it to do dumb shit like write an entire article about multicast concepts and practices without realizing they were invented 15 years ago.

    I'm sure someone, somewhere on slashdot actually wants to see and comment on whatever train wreck cringely has created this week, and that's fine. Therefore I wish to propose this: Create a specific slashdot section for Cringely and John Dvorak. Call it "pundits with sub-human intelligence", or PWSHI for short. That way, slashdot can continue to post articles about whatever trainwreck Cringely and/or Dvorak have started this week, and I can block them in my slashdot preferences, and everyone is happy.

    1. Re:Can we just get it over with by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your 100% right. All I hear is cringely this, cringely that.

      The guy does not make innovative statements, and its more just repeated well known information. He doesn't even offer decent solutions.

      If you look around, Gnome for instance develops new ideas and starts bounties for them.. http://www.gnome.org/bounties/

      If you want new technology ideas, Auzy has his own set (which actually covers this) http://auzy.blogspot.com/2006/02/auzys-technology- predictionswishlist.html

      Now if you look at Cringely's, its already well known information, and his solutions are lacking. His not even trying to solve the issues. How this got into Slashdot and concepts by gnome or Auzy didn't is quite saddening.. its gotten to the point that every week its Cringely said this. The authors obviously dont know what people want.

      I think I hate to say this, but I dont think I'll be hanging out at slashdot much anymore. Its turned into quite a sad state.

      - Resistant Memory

  9. CoDiO P2P Streaming by zalas · · Score: 1

    I recently attended a talk that was part of a PhD student's oral defense. He detailed a really nice streaming video system that is congestion optimized instead of rate optimized called CoDiO. I asked him how long he thinks it would take to market this, but I think he said that they're still working out the kinks in the practical application. So yeah, the technology is definitely there to stream video over P2P, but I don't know about DRM. Then again... regular terrestrial TV broadcasts aren't hampered with copy protection as far as I know, so maybe the DRM is unnecessary for broadcasts with commercials?

    1. Re:CoDiO P2P Streaming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Seems like the company Cringely mentions - www.GridNetworks.com is streaming from a p2p thing. Are they using CoDiO?

    2. Re:CoDiO P2P Streaming by John+Hasler · · Score: 1

      > Then again... regular terrestrial TV broadcasts aren't hampered
      > with copy protection as far as I know...

      HDTV will be.

      --
      Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
  10. Predictions by chris+macura · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Great. Another prediction on what technology will or will not be able to do in the near future.

    We all know how accurate these are.

    Also: There is a difference between serving the exact same fucking content, at the same time to 1 million people and generating custom pages on-demand for 1 million people.

  11. Simple solution to this problem by auzy · · Score: 0

    I actually proposed a very simple solution to this problem recently in my blog post http://auzy.blogspot.com/2006/02/auzys-technology- predictionswishlist.html

    If they add support for multiple href's in a a href tag, such as <a href="http://mirror1/..." a href="http://mirror2/...">Link</a> then it would open up the possibilities of doing P2P type webserving, as the users could run a program to announce the address of their computer to the webserver after they got the download, and the webserver could give each user a long list of a href's which the client could download simultaneously off a few for larger files. It would also make having a list of mirrors for a file easier to manage, instead of posting 30 links on a page.

    It really is a simple problem to solve even now effortlessly, and its only a matter of time until browsers start adding support for such a mechanism.

    1. Re:Simple solution to this problem by aiken_d · · Score: 1

      Of course, spammers would go around to every site and add their own href's that pretended to me mirrors, but actually redirected to their own sites (or downloaded malware instead of the intended app).

      I think the internet already has enough issues surrounding authentication and identity; no need to break something as basic as the web with yet another one.

      -b

      --
      If I wanted a sig I would have filled in that stupid box.
    2. Re:Simple solution to this problem by leenks · · Score: 1

      Or just host a torrent? None of these solutions really help the video problem though. Sure, I could mirror the file, but hell, no way am I going to do that on my connection. Some of us get tiny upload allowances which completely swamp our connections and make downloading a nightmare when used...

    3. Re:Simple solution to this problem by nightgeometry · · Score: 1

      I have been thinking about a remarkably similar (I think) system. Not really my area though, so no more than thinking about it, unfortunately.

      Hows about browsers act a little like Bittorrent apps, and once you have downloaded a page you start serving it in a torrentish (hey, new word, yay. unless someone else has already used it) way. Presumably you would want some way of ensuring that my browser doesn't alter the bit of the page that I am going to serve, but I assume bittorrent already does this.

      Yes, it does seem a hell of a change for something that maybe few people will ever see the benefit of, but... I want to put a couple of hundred pics up for viewing, I have some web space, but the photo's are highest quality jpegs I could export from my original RAW images (in turn from an 8 mega pixel camera). That takes a reasonable amount of space, but more importantly a lot of bandwidth. Say they generate some interest, then my bandwidth bill goes through the roof. But if someone views that content then they inherently have a copy of it, and some of their bandwidth could be used to serve the pics (and their bandwidth is lesser, but cheaper (assuming DSL providers don't start charging extra for upstream bandwidth).

      I'm sure someone has probably thought this through, and somewhere there is probably either a) a rebuttal or b) at least an initial implentation. I wish I knew which, as I would consider the rebuttal, or help test.

      Anyway, it seemed kinda close to your idea, or it did to me. And if it ever happened, no more slashdottings (maybe).

      --
      The best is the enemy of the good
    4. Re:Simple solution to this problem by auzy · · Score: 1

      So add a hash tag as well.. easy.. And both easily implemented

    5. Re:Simple solution to this problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How about a round robin group? DNS has the ability to do that simply.

    6. Re:Simple solution to this problem by jrockway · · Score: 1

      > announce the address of their computer to the webserver after they got the download

      The problem is that the Internet is one-way these days. Most home users (i.e. the consumers of this content) don't have a real IP address, so this won't work.

      What we need is multicast and IPv6.

      --
      My other car is first.
    7. Re:Simple solution to this problem by sketerpot · · Score: 1

      Simple:

    8. Re:Simple solution to this problem by Kaenneth · · Score: 1

      What about wireless multicasting?, there could be transmission towers in every large city, and they could use some wireless technology to send images and audio into everyones home.

      oh, wait.

      anyway, there are these neat things called 'forward error correction' and 'fountain codes'; where you add parity to the data as you send it out, so that if a few bits are missing, the loss can be dectected, and if small enough, corrected. Like RAID, but for data streams instead of storage. A digital signal receiver could snag the packets it's interested in from a dense stream or multiple channels, and decode onto a local disk for buffering.

      Shows would be fed into a fountain code generator, which would start spewing out small packets of data at intervals for the next week, which would then be broadcast over the area, with interested parties capturing packets until they have the complete show stored. cheap receivers might only listen to one radio frequency at a time, while top-end ones could snag and decode dozens of channels simultainiously (for an apartment building/hotel or such)

      A content provider could encrypt programs, so that if a new episode would normally air on sunday night, the program could be streamed and collected before then, and at the appointed time the encryption key is broadcast, also handy for pay per view. if small, critical parts are missing, or the viewer wasn't planning on watching the until the last moment, the missing bits could be single-cast over wires.

      This could still work for 'live' events, if enough channel space was reserved during the event, even with priority given to live events, everything else could squeeze into the gaps

      would work, from the users viewpoint like a Tivo/ReplayTV/other DVR.

      add some flags for the Emergency Broadcast System (do current HDTV standards accommidate EBS?)

    9. Re:Simple solution to this problem by Sepodati · · Score: 1

      If they add support for multiple href's in a a href tag, such as Link then it would open up the possibilities of doing P2P type webserving,

      Wouldn't this be better handled at the DNS level? Security issues forthcoming, wouldn't it be easier to link to "example.com/file.pdf" and have the DNS resolution point to any number of mirrors. Have an automatic way of registering them, include hashes in the request/registrations, etc. Security would of course be the issue, but it just seems better to handle it at this level, transparent to the user, rather than having multiple links in an href.

      ---John Holmes...

  12. yeah, but that's not the subject here by Trepidity · · Score: 1

    The subject here seems to be "TV-like" streaming, which is just pushing out streaming already-rendered video files.

    1. Re:yeah, but that's not the subject here by eipgam · · Score: 1

      That's true, but then that's assuming that as more and more people move to IPTV type solutions they'll be remaining with static, pre-rendered video files. This is of course a flawed assumption.

  13. Either that or be a public service provider? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/multicast/

    Just one reason why the BBC is better that any media companies in the US (imo).

    From what I've seen of US tv, if I lived there I wouldn't bother with a TV, and if you think I'm being anti-US, I also have to say that watching German, French, Swiss and Italian TV whilst on holiday in Europe convinced me I wouldn't bother with a tv if I lived their either.

    That's not to say the BBC is the only good quality tv provider in the UK, we also have providers such as Channel 4, but then again, they are also part publicly funded...

    P.S. I'm not sure if by network providers you meant the ISPs, but if that is the case then I ought to point out that the BBC is peering directly with other ISPs at LINX in London and this should benefit both sides as the bandwidth required for multicasing should be greatly reduced.

    1. Re:Either that or be a public service provider? by Handpaper · · Score: 1
      Minor quibble - Channel 4 is not publically funded, but is is a non-profit.
      It supports itself by advertising on the main Channel 4, E4 and FilmFour (which is going free-to-view shortly - yay!) and by royalties/takings from the TV programmes and movies it produces.

      And yes, the BBC is probably the only broadcaster that 'gets' the Internet - because it's one of the very few whose customers are viewers rather than advertisers.

  14. Someone clearly didn't get the idea of P2P by frovingslosh · · Score: 1
    so maybe the future holds P2P networks owned and managed by Hollywood?

    No way. I'm gald to support the legal P2P community; I frequently leave Knoppix or other Linux distros running for weeks on end on a spare system here and make available my modest upstream bandwidth. And I can understand that some may want to use their bandwidth to share material that might anger the MPAA or RIAA (and particularly in the case of the RIAA I don't have very negative feelings about that). But that's a far cry from ever thinking that the RIAA or MPAA could ever get P2P working where others contribute their paid for bandwidth for these thugs to make a profit on. And for those few who do there will be plenty more like me who may go out of our way to poison the streams and keep the scheeme from working.

    And before everyone gives feedback that it might work if the criminal organizations give a "discount" in return for leaving the feed up for so long, perhaps the public would indeed be stupid enough to fall for that, after all they buy songs and ringtones at insane prices in formats that lock them into DRM scheems and keep them from moving them to the next device they own. But in reality these groups will not be giving any discounts, they will just inflate the prices further and then tell people how much they "save" if they contribute bandwidth to support these rackets. Yes, maybe some people are stupid enough to fall for this, but it certainly should not be encouraged.

    --
    I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
  15. Akamai embellishment by artemis67 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The Akamai figures are the embellishment of the submitter... Cringely doesn't mention Akamai anywhere in the article.

    1. Re:Akamai embellishment by Kawahee · · Score: 1

      Well noted.

      --
      I'll subscribe to Slashdot when I see a month without a dupe, a typo, or an article the "editors" didn't read.
    2. Re:Akamai embellishment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      We are serving around 120k concurrent streams on Akamai every day. We are throwing their model for a spin though. Akamai's network is geared for global broadcast. We are radio stations, so we have many individual broadcasts and the demand on them is local to the broadcast point.

      In some datacenters Akamai has only a few servers, so the logic of picking the closest server to meet the listner can backfire if that datacenter has limited capacity.

  16. No free lunch by Bozovision · · Score: 1

    Why exactly would anyone want to donate their bandwidth to movie distributors? What benefit would you get out of it? Restricted viewing rights through DRM doesn't sound like a benefit to me. I don't see how they'd square this circle; it's not a reasonable trade-off.

    1. Re:No free lunch by PatTheGreat · · Score: 1
      I think the deal would be "Sure, we'll let you stream all this cool stuff, but not unless you help us."

      i.e., the only way to get the content would be to agree to letting them steal your bandwidth. Maybe if you compare it to a toll or something, it would make you feel better, eh?

      --
      Google: "All your data are belong to us."
    2. Re:No free lunch by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The benefit to pay less than for an equivalent centralized system?

    3. Re:No free lunch by timeOday · · Score: 1

      The stupid thing of it is that the bandwidth donated by P2P servers is pure waste anyways. A packet sent from a leaf node of the Internet to another leaf node makes TWO trips - one up to the backbone, and one back down. A packet served from a data center right on the backbone only has to make the trip down. So P2P just wastes bandwidth. As for server horsepower, I'm not worried about it at all. Serving up static content (like a movie, which isn't tailored to each recipient) is super easy.

    4. Re:No free lunch by shmlco · · Score: 1
      The stupid thing of it is that people don't understand the technology. Yes, if a packet came in from NY to your house in LA, and you shipped it back out to DC, it would trip twice across the country on the backbone. If, however, you're in LA watching a movie, and your neighbor down the street is watching it too, but a few minutes behind your own start time, then your retransmitted packet my only have to go up to the neighborhood router and back down again. In short, there's a lot of local bandwidth that a centralized server scheme also "wastes".

      As to server horsepower, you may not be worried about it, but rest assured, the people who DO have to provide it worry about it all the time.

      --
      Any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.
    5. Re:No free lunch by shmlco · · Score: 1
      "Why exactly would anyone want to donate their bandwidth to movie distributors? What benefit would you get out of it? "

      Because it might, for example, just make true video-on-demand, any movie or TV show anytime you want it feasible? Because people might want such a service? Because otherwise it might be too damned expensive to be economically viable? Because that bandwidth for which you're already paying a fixed monthly fee is probably sitting there unused 99% of the time anyway?

      --
      Any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.
  17. are you retarded? by weierstrass · · Score: 1

    the subject is what's happening now.

    no assumptions about how things might be different in the future are needed or implied.

    --
    my password really is 'stinkypants'
  18. Accelerating Returns by chris_eineke · · Score: 1

    I wouldn't worry about that.

    The computer and computing industry isn't standing still. Processor and signal transmission speeds increase exponentially. There will be quite enough bandwidth and processing power for everybody.

    --
    "All you have to do is be fragile and grateful. So stay the underdog." Chuck Palahniuk, Choke
  19. Who are Grid Networks? by rgoldste · · Score: 1

    Cringely talked about a company called Grid Networks and their killer P2P app that may change TV distribution. They seem to have an interesting idea, but I wanted to look into it further. Owing to the genericness of their name, however, I haven't been able to devise a Google search that finds their website.

    Does anybody have any info on Grid Networks, or are they vaporware?

    1. Re:Who are Grid Networks? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ummm... htttp://www.gridnetworks.com/ ?

    2. Re:Who are Grid Networks? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      http://www.gridnetworks.com/

      I KNOW it is against the slacker credo to actually read an article, but in the case of Cringley, he posts all his references sites under the tab titled "Links of the Week".

  20. P2P is not "under control" by Opportunist · · Score: 2, Insightful

    And thus I don't really think they will switch to this model. Simply put: Their "servers" would not be under their control. If we were to provide them with "servers", we could at least partly control what is shown.

    Of course we would not get a say what we distribute. But that's not the point. You cannot rely on a P2P Server to provide real time content. Suddenly it's gone, because I switch the box off. Even if you have a few fallback "servers" on the list it's nothing you can build a reliable service on. And people do get angry if their favorite soap suddenly skips right after the words "I kept silent 'til now, but now I have to say it. I am..."

    Not to mention the danger of tampering with the content. Yes, they will encrypt it, yes, they will make it near impossible to inject anything, but there is still the danger that in the middle of a Disney Movie you suddenly get to see ... use your imagination.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    1. Re:P2P is not "under control" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You mean you get to see something like... say if someone were to add the priest getting an erection in the wedding scene of Little Mermaid??? How is that any different from what they already relase?

    2. Re:P2P is not "under control" by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      The difference is that it wouldn't get an "E" rating that way.

      Not that it would be too bad for some shows. Considering the quality of some TV shows anything injected would certainly provide a lot more entertainment.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    3. Re:P2P is not "under control" by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

      ... but there is still the danger that in the middle of a Disney Movie you suddenly get to see ... George Carlin!

      "Fuck Mickey Mouse! Fuck him in the ass with a big rubber dick! And then break it off and beat him with it!"

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    4. Re:P2P is not "under control" by Trillian_1138 · · Score: 1
      And people do get angry if their favorite soap suddenly skips right after the words "I kept silent 'til now, but now I have to say it. I am..."


      Yes? Yes? You are what? What are you? The suspense is killing me!!

      Trillian

    5. Re:P2P is not "under control" by Thing+1 · · Score: 1
      Not to mention the danger of tampering with the content. Yes, they will encrypt it, yes, they will make it near impossible to inject anything, but there is still the danger that in the middle of a Disney Movie you suddenly get to see ... use your imagination.

      You're not kidding. Years ago I went searching for Finding Nemo on Kazaa (yes, it's a quaint story ;-), and found 7 other movies, one of which was a neat Swedish porn.

      Now, if my kids had found that while innocently looking for Finding Nemo, I'd have to first ask "where'd you guys come from?" and second, I'd be upset to expose these young unknowns to such non-warlike images. However, the fact that I found it just reminds me of Woody Allen, who said in Annie Hall, "Hey, don't knock masturbation. It's sex with someone I love!"

      --
      I feel fantastic, and I'm still alive.
    6. Re:P2P is not "under control" by Kjella · · Score: 1

      Of course we would not get a say what we distribute. But that's not the point. You cannot rely on a P2P Server to provide real time content. Suddenly it's gone, because I switch the box off. Even if you have a few fallback "servers" on the list it's nothing you can build a reliable service on.

      The servers would never go down, I imagine they'll run the "tracker" function centrally. The question is rather if you can get enough peers to upload, and why? P2P is quite reliable enough for soft real-time (buffered) video unless you run out of bandwidth. Since you have a guaranteed seed (again, officially provided) and a large number of peers, the statistics work out. Losing your box means nothing.

      As far as injecting content, that is just fear-mongering. Assuming they sign their content and have signature verification at the end point, you have as much chance of tampering with that as SSH, HTTPS or any other secure protocol. Think of yourself as an Internet node, except you get to cache the content for a little while. Doesn't mean you can do anything more with it.

      It all comes down to "what's the incentive?" Most consumers pay so much $$$ for so little upload speed, the math just doesn't work out. If the P2P distributor had to compensate us fairly, then he might as well build his own Akamai or something. I don't understand how it could possibly be cheaper to get content uploaded via the last mile, onto the backbone then downloaded again over the last mile rather than just put some big honking boxes on the backbone.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  21. Re:What happened to the MBONE? by Russ+Nelson · · Score: 3, Informative

    Whatever happened to the MBONE? I see that a book on the subject is now posted to the web and freely copyable because it's gone out of print. The MBONE FAQ dates from 1993. That's like (/me whips out his HP-41C calculator) 13 years old. Apparently the IETF has a group for MBONE Deployment, but it hasn't been updated since last September, and even then it was a year late for its final milestone.

    --
    Don't piss off The Angry Economist
  22. P2P sounds great but by krisp · · Score: 1

    they aren't paying for my cable modem, and my cable modem has a maximum upstream speed of about 45 kilobytes per second. That isn't going to help anyone really. Not to mention, I wouldn't be all that keen on maxing out my upstream just so I could watch American Idol.

    Also, shouldn't they be paying ME to use MY bandwidth?

  23. who in hollywood? by Triumph+The+Insult+C · · Score: 1

    companies like sony? oh, i trust them with media/content, fuck you very much ... no thanks, i'll pass

    --
    vodka, straight up, thank you!
  24. P2P TV and Movies should be FREE... by Jackie_Chan_Fan · · Score: 1

    A P2P Tv and movie network should be free to its viewers, as over the air television is. The reason being, that we all end up paying for the bandwidth. So i dont want just a one dollar discount on movies in exchange for my bandwidth, I instead want the product for free.

    If you want me to watch your television, your commericials, while you profit in the millions of dollars AND use my bandwidth?!.... You're giving it to me free!

    Game on, you DRM motherfuckers :) Citizens need to play hardball.

  25. You know what else has overstayed its welcome? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    IT'S IS SHORT FOR IT IS FOR THE LOVE OF *FUCK* can it be that hard to get right?!?? Just say "it is" in the sentence. Does it make sense? NO? Then don't use it!

  26. Hollywood-run p2p? Unlikely by Jeremi · · Score: 1
    maybe the future holds P2P networks owned and managed by Hollywood?


    That seems unlikely to me... people would have to be willing to trade away their spare bandwidth for... what, exactly? Being able to watch movies/TV on their computer? They can do that now if they want, without having to run any "industry-approved" p2p clients (and all that that implies).

    --


    I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  27. Plenty of P2P CDN's by ozzee · · Score: 2, Informative


    Chaincast
    NetCableTV
    Red Swoosh
    Kontiki

    Just to name a few.

    Some of these have been in production for many years. Chaincast is/was the leader in radio streaming (at one time).

    There are more advantages with P2P streaming/downloads than meet the eye. You also get better sharing of data in the local network. i.e. you're at Starbucks, you see someone watching somthing you want too - start the download an you get it at full speed from one laptop directly to the next. Also, from an infrastructure pespective, it's automatically fault tolerant.

    It's big.

    1. Re:Plenty of P2P CDN's by Drew+M. · · Score: 1

      Aaaaah, it's always fun when someone brings up one of your old companies. What's funny is that almost all of the development team at ChainCast jumped and is now at NetCableTV. And I always complained about their use of ActiveX (which was going to die at the time due to spyware) and their choice of having a management node architecture instead of a straight network client cloud that could scale itself. I kept telling them they should just mod a pre-existing p2p program to create their entire architecture.

      It was an interesting idea, but bad execution.

  28. Hot Tub Etiquette by goombah99 · · Score: 1

    P2P narrowcasting so that everyone can watch their favorite show any time of day _they choose_ is like telling everyone in a crowded hot tub to move to the other side simultaneously.

    p2p Broadcasting a single feed is like having everyone shift over one seat.

    you get to sit next to the jet the same amount time. But you may not get to sit there when you choose.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
  29. the changing nature of content by zogger · · Score: 1

    The way things are going, for the most part these "execs" won't have to worry about supplying millions of people with the same stream, because there will be too much competition. It has become much easier and cheaper to produce "content". Whereas in the past, for example, you might have had a "choice" of 4 networks on TV, and those few "execs" and shows, all very expensive to produce and broadcast, now you have a choice of hundreds of stations on cable or satellite, and soon, thousands or even millions on the net. Audience "viewership" numbers will fall for most programs, and rise for others, with the others being new and for the most part out of those 'concerned execs' hands or influence or "worry".

      "Consumers" aren't limited as much as they used to be, and those remaining limitations are dropping daily. A show in the near future might be extremely lucky to only have a thousand viewers (whatever, see "podcasts"), something that could be handled easily with todays "normal" streaming tech.

    1. Re:the changing nature of content by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 1

      I find this theory highly unlikely. The cost of producing even a simple show with actors payed minimum wage would be tens of thousands of dollars.

      We're seeing lots of amateurs producing simple online shows for free online now, because every part of the process is donated. Many are still young and ambitious, they can't get a job, so they create a job for themselves. I think if you interviewed most amateur indie TV producers, they're not doing it because they want to produce indi features for the rest of their lives, they're doing it to get noticed and hired (think payed).

      Costs are coming down on hardware and software (All that slashdot cares about) but HR won't come down in price any time soon, and that makes up a significant bulk of the cost of production. I just budgeted a 6 minute short film. 26 thousand went into wages, 5 thousand went into hardware. Let's say the cameras, lights, sound and post equipment is free. You still only come down by about 16%.

  30. Its artifically high, the hardware cost is low by cheekyboy · · Score: 1

    Radio is only high because there is demand, and the govt sees it as a free cash cow to go charging
    $0000000000000's worth so the station will have a hard time recovering the cost.

    Hardware wise its peanuts. Hell, its probably cheaper to pay $10m to make a sat and launch a sat from russia for $20m, than
    pay the local govt $80m for a damn licence. And go broadcast from space geo.

    Imagine if the govt suddenly made a 'website licence' and charged people $1000/yr. Or a streaming media licence for
    $10/gig/year or something stupid the govt people think up of based on MONEY WE NEED / something calculable.

    --
    Liberty freedom are no1, not dicks in suits.
  31. Multicast works....it's political by Danathar · · Score: 3, Informative

    Multicast has been deployed on Internet2 for some time now. I've watched 720p streams multicasted from Europe with no problem.

    The problem with deploying it on the commercial Internet is political. Backbone commercial Internet providers have had multicast on for a LONG time. ISP's that give you your home broadband connection which are mostly cable TV operators and companies like verizon don't want to provide a cost effective way for content providers on the net to deliver video. They would rather charge you for their "middleman" service. It's not like they don't know how to enable it, all they need to do is enable it on their switches and routers.

    Most cable operators use multicast already to stream the channels through their set top boxes.

    In Britain The BBC is working with ISP's to multicast to broadband connections. That would REALLY be nice if something similar happened here (In the U.S.)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/multicast/

    1. Re:Multicast works....it's political by TallMatthew · · Score: 1
      The problem with deploying it on the commercial Internet is political. Backbone commercial Internet providers have had multicast on for a LONG time.

      That's not true. Having multicast turned on to support OSPF is not the same thing as multicast routing, which is what's necessary to support multicast feeds.

      The major problem with deploying multicast Internet-wide is management and security. ISPs would have to accept multicast routing information from their neighbors and trust they know what they're doing, because a script kiddie could launch a million fake multicast feeds and tip every router on their network over. Obviously there's going to be some reluctance to do that.

      Also, if somehow it was possible to protect against DOS attacks, these feeds would require hardware upgrades. Sending out an Internet-wide multicast feed requires every core router on the Internet between the source and each individual listener to maintain state for the feed. If you just have a thousand or so, that might be OK, but at some point you're going to be pushing the limits.

    2. Re:Multicast works....it's political by Danathar · · Score: 1

      Not debating yout technical points, but why has this not happened on I2, or GEANT or any of the other large scale research networks with hundreds of thousands of combined nodes? For all the death and gloom predicted if multicast were to be deployed widely there has not been that many large attacks on multicast on those networks and arguably if there were to be some hacking/experimentation done you'd fine it there first (just a theory).

    3. Re:Multicast works....it's political by TallMatthew · · Score: 1

      You said it yourself ... they're research networks. Malicious and neophytic users are at a minimum. Too, these networks were deployed with multicast in mind; the global Internet would require something of a retrofit which, based on the unknown effects of multicast becoming available on a global scale, is highly unlikely.

    4. Re:Multicast works....it's political by Danathar · · Score: 1

      Why would you say that Malicious and neophytic users are at a minimum? These networks connect just about every major college and university on the planet (and a good percentage of the next tier). It would seem to me that hackers would be MORE prevelant on these networks.

      So you don't think that, factoring out security that source specific multicast could scale?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Source_specific_multi cast

    5. Re:Multicast works....it's political by TallMatthew · · Score: 1
      The problem with multicast, including source-specific multicast, is that end users are essentially injecting routing information into the Internet's core. This is ripe for abuse, for the same reason that end users running routing protocol is ripe for abuse.

      Imagine a scenario where someone on a DSL circuit solicits requests for every source-based multicast available on the Internet he can find. The ISP he's connected to propogates those IGMP requests through its own network, to all of its peers, who continue to propogate it through the core of the Internet to the source of all of the feeds. Then the data streams for all of those multicasts hammer every network in between the perpetrator and the sources, which ultimately gets stuck at the DSL circuit, if not before. It's a nightmare.

      Are there workarounds for this? Sure there are. Is it worth risking network uptime to make it work? To a high-tiered ISP, no.

  32. Re:What happened ... by alexhs · · Score: 1

    > What happened to all the multicast and proxy technology that we have spent the last 10+ years working on to solve this problem?

    The same that happened with IPv6 ? Technology is right here but currently almost nobody cares to use it...

    --
    I have discovered a truly marvelous proof of killer sig, which this margin is too narrow to contain.
  33. It's more than multicasting by goombah99 · · Score: 1

    I beleive this is supposed to be more than multi-casting. I think Cringley was saying that Akami can't handle more than 150,000 simultanoues streams of the same stream let alone different streams. I bet they multi-cast those streams. As I read it he means that to multi-cast to 30 million folks you need to have a tree structure with each node multi-casting it's part. So now simply multi-casting is not the solution.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
  34. what idiot would stream mpeg2? by cheekyboy · · Score: 1

    It wouldnt take 18mbs for HDTV, you could do it using H.264 and only use say, 1-2mbs max. (based on 400kbs at 720x320 * 4 = 1400x600 at 1.6mbs)

    --
    Liberty freedom are no1, not dicks in suits.
    1. Re:what idiot would stream mpeg2? by elvum · · Score: 1

      Many people would expect a "high-definition" video service to be higher quality as well as higher resolution. A BBC White Paper on the subject suggests 4-16Mb/s for H.264 (or VC1) encoded HD video, depending on the nature of the content.

  35. Re:the changing nature of content (EXAMPLE) by rewinn · · Score: 1

    Here is an example of the correctness of your point.

    You can invest 30 minutes of your time watching yet another forumlaic sitcom on cable or the web, with perhaps a 10% chance-per-minute of having a really good laugh; or you can spend the same time clicking around YouTube.

    If only 25% of the amateur comedy on that site, and others like it, make you laugh heartily ... you'll end up with up to 7.5 times as many laughs!

    (Thoughly bogus mathematics provided for illustrative purposes only!)

  36. The BBC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Interesting BBC streaming stats. They peak at 129,000 streams. And that's just one client that got one big pipe and buy some extra from Akamai. So, you're correct... the intro is utter hogwash.

  37. Congress should pass a multicast law by Danathar · · Score: 1

    If ISP's were required to enable multicast all the way to the home all these video delivery problems would be MUCH easier.

    You want to see cable and DSL operators go nutz with foaming mouths, get your congressman to introduce a bill requiring multicast to be enabled on all routers and switches, and add a provision punishing ISP's who knowingly degrate UDP.

    Many people think that multicast is a failure and does not work, fact of the matter is, it's deployed WORLD WIDE on the backbones of both Internet and Internet2. I can tell you from my own experience that it works as advertized (on I2)

  38. Hey Cringley. You missed one method. by zymano · · Score: 1

    Mentioned at Dslreports.com

    http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/72293

  39. Revenue Streams by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 4, Informative

    Cringeley doesn't mention Akamai. Where does this 150K max users figure come from? If "tens of thousands" of servers is only 10K servers, then 150K streams is only 15 streams:server.

    But even a $2K P4/4.3GHz can serve over 1750 simultaneous 500Kbps video streams (from my own benchmarks), for 875Mbps. Since Gbps fiberoptics cost <$5000:mo, or under $3:stream:mo, 10K servers should serve at least 17 million simultaneous users; 58K servers serve over 100 million simultaneous streams.

    Use more efficient servers, like SANs coupled more directly to routers, and you're talking about <$3:stream:mo for maybe 100K servers serving over 1 billion people, for a $100M investment that can be amortized over a few years. Years which can bring maybe $1-100:mo profit on 1-10 billion consumers, or 10-10,000x ROI.

    Such a network is much more efficient and economical as P2P, or multicast. But even the raw numbers sound very profitable. That's why Akamai is making so much money, even though their market is still so small.

    --

    --
    make install -not war

    1. Re:Revenue Streams by kb1ikn · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      The must be running NT or Slowaris.

    2. Re:Revenue Streams by Granis · · Score: 1
      But even a $2K P4/4.3GHz can serve over 1750 simultaneous 500Kbps video streams ...

      I would think that 500Kbps is on the lower end of what most people would find acceptable for a video stream. However since the numbers in the summary seemed to be so far off I guess your point holds true even when streaming DVD quality streams.

      Now with HDTV though, what will the bitrate requirements be? High enough to make one server struggle with only 15 streams perhaps?
    3. Re:Revenue Streams by dj42 · · Score: 1

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=AKAM&annual "That's why Akamai is making so much money, even though their market is still so small." Revenue, maybe. Granted the '05 financials aren't there, but ... they have a ton of liabilities and a history of considerable net losses.

      --
      We are one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively. Back to you with the weather, Bob!
    4. Re:Revenue Streams by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      HDTV is about 18.2Mbps, about 36x my estimates. so that's about 50 streams per P4/4.3GHz. Since the bandwidth is really the cost bottleneck at $5K:1Gbps:mo, that $3:mo cost for a 500Kbps stream becomes about $100:mo. It's got to become about 10x as cheap to become worth the $50:mo Americans will generally spend on it, which would pay for only half the required bandwidth at bulk wholesale cost today.

      But most of the existing fiber is dark. There's at least 10x as much unlit, so that 10x price decrease is inevitable. The real problem is the killer app that creates demand. Probably community sharing short videos, including mobile "phone" interfaces as easy as making a phonecall. Then people will actually find the $50-100:mo worth it, rather than spending that money on something else, like cable or movie theaters.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    5. Re:Revenue Streams by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      I dunno, they earned $48.967M on $210.015M in 2004, after losing ($11.155M) on $161.259M in 2003 and ($182.536M) on $144.976M in 2002. 2005 could be about $100M net on $250M, which would mean they'd taken in 2/3 of a $billion, and spent just a little more, before their market is even arrived. Which is about how much my estimates say they'd spend to serve a billion people in 2006. Seems like the model is about correct, though it's taken them several years of investment to get there. I guess they better hope they're not obsoleted by a DIY P2P Internet before 2007, when they'll probably show a total net profit.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

  40. Re:What happened ... by Jugalator · · Score: 1

    And the obvious follow up question is: why not if they want it?

    Or maybe media companies just don't want a working online model instead of overloaded Akamai servers?

    --
    Beware: In C++, your friends can see your privates!
  41. Protocol choice for massive video streaming by Xugumad · · Score: 1

    BitTorrent is peer to peer. Having said that, the BitTorrent as it stands, is drastically unsuitable for use in a streaming enviornment. It is designed to transfer files, not stream them in real time; we can start with the requirement that the server has the entire file to generate the .torrent file from (try that on a live video stream, for example), and continue with the lack of an guaranteed arrival order or time. Oh, and that .torrent file - still going to be hard for a few million users to grab at once.

    A BitTorrent-like protocol could be used, something that sends the stream meta data as signed packets along with the stream itself, although actually ensuring in-order and on-time delivery is still going to be a massive headache. There are all sorts of interesting and complex trips that could be used, mostly focusing on a BitTorrent-like protocol to allow trivial proxying (so an ISP could buy a few computers, hook them up to their network, subscribe to the most popular streams, and their subscribers would automatically find and use them, as they would have high bandwidth to them).

    Someone want to remind me what was wrong with multicast, though?

    1. Re:Protocol choice for massive video streaming by tyldis · · Score: 1

      You really ought to try stuff like SopCast and TVKoo.
      I live in a place where there is no cable companies, the airwaves dosn't bring any TV signals and sattelite TV is just too damned expencive. BitTorrent based streaming is here today, all you need is legal content to put on it.

  42. hits by kb1ikn · · Score: 1

    Just gotta warm up the OC-3072 or get Hitachi to cram more lambdas into a single fiber.

  43. Year's supply of Pauly Shore by Macrat · · Score: 1

    They'll give you all you can watch Pauly Shore movies!!!!

    Oh. Wait....

  44. More like a "stolen" lunch. by chub_mackerel · · Score: 1
    Why exactly would anyone want to donate their bandwidth to movie distributors? What benefit would you get out of it? Restricted viewing rights through DRM doesn't sound like a benefit to me. I don't see how they'd square this circle; it's not a reasonable trade-off.

    Truly informed consent, I imagine, is something the content owners will try to avoid. My prediction is that there will be an "application" you install in order to watch streamed content. You click an EULA button in the process of installing it. In doing so, you "agree" to become a peer in the content distribution network.

    Of course, most people wouldn't read the EULA, or afterward understand why their network lights blink sometimes, and their disk spins occasionally.

  45. P2P Video Broadcasting already exist by smlnjoe · · Score: 1

    P2P video distribution is already here.

    http://www.nft-tv.com/

    They are already up and running.

    1. Re:P2P Video Broadcasting already exist by Picasso5k · · Score: 1

      I found two broadcast being pushed by NFT: www.thewakeupshow.com www.ozzfest.com pretty cool...

  46. right, lets not look at the future by dknj · · Score: 1

    "640K should be enough for everybody"

    1. Re:right, lets not look at the future by weierstrass · · Score: 1

      look, the OP took to task a statement in the summary:

      >>"Akamai, with its tens of thousands of servers spread in an intelligent topology, still can't serve more than 150,000 concurrent streams"

      [notice the word "can't", indicative of the PRESENT FUCKING TENSE.]

      >Assuming Akamai has only 10,000 servers, that's 15 streams per server. C'mon now, we're not that stupid.

      eipgam challenged his challenge of that statement, by saying 'servers will have a hard time serving 15 of the future's dynamically generated streams now being researched'

      this maybe true, it has fuck all to do with what was being discussed.

      he made the same redundant point twice. now you've just made it again. wtf? are you all on drugs?

      --
      my password really is 'stinkypants'
  47. Re:What happened to the MBONE? by akumria · · Score: 2, Insightful

    IPv4 multicast across the Internet will never happen.

    The reason is the complexity involved in deployment (multiple protocols, MBGP, MSDP, etc.) and that you have the 'third-party problem'. Basically both transmitters and receivers have to rely on a third-party for a redezvous-point.

    Scalable Internet wide multicast deployment *might* happen with IPv6 because some of the issues have been solved (using, for example, embedable rendevous points - negating the need the 3rd parties). However if you look at how ISPs are architectured with xDSL networks, there isn't any incentive to provide multicast at the tail end.

  48. That's not fair by Kawahee · · Score: 1

    C'mon now, that was back in the day when everybody thought we'd be in colonies on the moon by 2000.

    NASA sure showed them though.

    --
    I'll subscribe to Slashdot when I see a month without a dupe, a typo, or an article the "editors" didn't read.
  49. Re:What happened to the MBONE? by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

    The people selling bandwidth don't want to deploy it.

    At least that's what I've heard and it makes sense. Maybe the market pressures that cause power companies to give you rebates on EnergyStar gear could come into play.

    Or maybe a media enterprise will gobble up a tier one provider and make it happen to make multicast TV happen for their customers.

    --
    My God, it's Full of Source!
    OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
  50. Fine... Lets do it their way by TPS+Report · · Score: 1
    BitTorrent seems to have worn out it's welcome with the MPAA recently, so maybe the future holds P2P networks owned and managed by Hollywood?"


    I'll be happy to join their "P2P" network, buy the content for a reasponable price, and share pieces of files I download to other users that want the same thing. However, their litigious and moneygrubbing attitude makes me NOT want to share any of my bandwidth with them for free. They would have to offer me a monetary incentive to consider using my bandwidth to P2P it. If they want to be the type of association that is convicted of price fixing, and they want to sue everyone under the sun, I have no intention of helping them by sharing my bandwidth. They will get nothing free from me.

    Others will take it much further, crack the DRM on the files, and re-share the files on the free networks right after they're released.

    Does Apple sue people like this for stripping off the DRM or whatever? If they do, I guess they don't get hardly as much press, because I never hear about it. Even if they do sue, I doubt they send out blanket subpoenas to everyone and their grandmother. Apple has sold a billion legal song downloads because they make it easy, cheap, and fast to get what you want. The iTunes store doesn't treat their customers like criminals and enemies. Even if they don't say it, I think Apple's DRM is a placebo for the record companies -- easily circumvented. I think they understand the real basic truth to sales: Sell something at a reasonable price, treat your customer nicely, and they're more likely to buy the product instead of steal.

    Be nice to your customers. Stop this HDCP, CSS, pricefixing, and lawsuit moneygrubbing and maybe things will work better for you.
    --
    I was told that I could listen to the radio at a reasonable volume from nine to eleven...
  51. Riight... by Lord_Dweomer · · Score: 1
    " BitTorrent seems to have worn out it's welcome with the MPAA recently, so maybe the future holds P2P networks owned and managed by Hollywood?"

    That's assuming that Hollywood hasn't worn out its welcome with users, which it has in spades. I think the future holds P2P networks owned and managed by users, who will watch content owned and created by users, and BitTorrent is a great distribution method for it.

    --
    Buy Steampunk Clothing Online!
  52. IT's not the server by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's Comcast/SBC and other ISP able to handle the network load between 7pm and 11pm

    Try DSL/Cable in SF Bay area - want to see network lag?
    Want to see user complaints? visit www.dslreports.com

  53. wow, Cringley discovers the head-end problem... by YesIAmAScript · · Score: 1

    This problem has been well known forever. It was a key factor in the failure of internet set top boxes in the mid-nineties (when everyone was trying to make one, like Apple or Oracle/Liberate).

    --
    http://lkml.org/lkml/2005/8/20/95
  54. yes/no by zogger · · Score: 1

    It's still much cheaper and easier than it was a few decades ago, especially in getting your production *broadcast* out to the potential viewers. No comparison. In the US when I was a kid there was ABC, NBC, CBS and a little weird educational programming, not even like PBS is now and that's it. It ALL poofed at midnight, test pattern ville on the 9 inch philco room heater... There wasn't even UHF broadcast then, let alone cable or satellite. I remember we were the first on the block to get a TV and all the neighbors would come over and watch it some nights. It was definetly only the very rich corps who did any TV shows then, and very limited. Now look at it today, all the liitle niche shows on cable, etc, now extrapolate just a few years into the future a little as affordable broadband penetrates more....

    Going to be a LOT more shows out there, so it must be "affordable enough". Maybe not dirt cheap, but when you can drop an industry from where it used to cost millions for a show and now down to the thousands, that's an order of magnitude cheaper. As to human wages, meh, same as everything else, you can get fantastic for free or a few bucks or utter crap for a million bucks, and everything humanly possible in between.. that's a crapshoot that will never change.

    OK, look at just word publishing, the progression..a few monks could write, very expensive paper, they had to be subsidised by kings and taxes and tithes. thousand years later we had the printing press, now people could afford at least a few books and a lot more took up reading..and writing. another hundred years, now you are talking, books are everywhere, writing has exploded. Now, today, EGADZOOKS there's a LOT of writers out there, must be millions on the planet earth now-yet still only a small handful percentage wise do it all the time or make all their money from it. It still happens though, doesn't it? Humans just *like* being creative and will do it regardless of pay, or just for very cheap pay, if it's something they want to do.

    It'll be the same with video, and TV shows and movies and documentaries and "newscasts" and whatnot. They'll be more of them, a lot more. The tech makes it possible, just like it did with writing and making music..

    1. Re:yes/no by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 1

      I also disagree with the reading/writing analogy.

      Everybody that wants to and is able to watch TV does. Not only that, we have almost 100% market penetration on the TV market. So at this point television is actually ahead of reading/writing, it has such a large audience that it can't really grow any more. In comparison to reading/writing we're well past the printing press, or even blog culture.

      When cable began to emerge as a dominant force in the 80s people predicted it would bring a new democratization of media. With local access channels the average Joe could produce a show and have it viewed by millions of viewers on their TVs at home. What came of that? Mystery Science Theater 3k (which promptly sold out at the first chance it got). But that was a rare case, and even then, they became popular thanks to a large network buying them.

      At this time there are still only a handful of entities producing TV shows:
      ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX and on the side you have the smaller entities: like HBO. Almost every single other channel is either owned by one of those companies, and or simply is a re-run outlet mall for those channels.

      The channels that will probably die out when VOD takes hold will be the: TNT, Spike and USAesque channels which are simply re-run channels.

      You'll never get a talented actor or actress on an indie television show, because if you're working for free there'll be no contracts, and the moment someone discovers you have talent, you'll get snatched. This is why actors and actresses just starting out love indipendent short films. You can be in and out in a month if you get a better job.

      Probably the only driving force behind the expansion of programming will come from an increase in population. With the increase of our population, smaller niche markets such as sci-fi can take hold because it costs X amount of dollars to produce a show. If your market is 4% of the market, as long as you get the required numbers of eyes, it doesn't matter if you're the 26th most popular show, you still have a large enough audience to make it economically feasible.

      TV will never become democratized to the level of writing. Why? Because writing is a solitary activity. One person can write a screenplay. It takes one person to write a novel. You can keep a blog up to date by yourself. Filmmaking is a collaborative process, you can't have the lone filmmaker working all by himself in some attic somewhere creating the next starwars by himself.

  55. multicasting / IGMP? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Does any one know whether something like multicasting / IGMP would be useful for these things?

  56. and everyone forgets about by drfrog · · Score: 1

    multicasting

    oh killler mbone apps where art though

    --
    back in the day we didnt have no old school
  57. I don't get it by xiando · · Score: 1

    Point 1: What is the point of streaming in the first place? The idea is STUPID and NOT what I as a (ab)user want. I want to be able to have the file, copy it to the device I want to view it on, pause when I feel like taking a break, start playing when I want to and so on. I want a +-700 MB avi divx file.

    Point 2: BitTorrent allows you to add seeds to the torrent as you feel like. When I read "data centers will never be ready to serve 30 million concurrent streams of data." I ask the simple question: Really? Data centers can just fine serve 300 million concurrent streams of (bittorrent) data. However, I don't have 300 million users to stream to. Get me that and I'll prove my point. No problem.

    Point 3: "Streaming" is about control: Controlling that you as a user have no freedom. Freedom is good for you. Being able to download the avi files is good for you. If Akamai can't serve 150,000 concurrent users then they really should ask themselves why they insist on "streaming" in the first place instead of distributing files like they should be doing and thus allowing their users more freedom.

  58. What about... by Ruff_ilb · · Score: 1

    A hybrid streaming/P2P application where bittorrent attempts to give you the bits in the correct order, but when it fails, a centralized server gives you what you need? Wouldn't be perfect, but it would take off a lot of the load from the server...

    --
    http://www.TheGamerNation.com/Forums
  59. My experience: Upstream is critical by WoTG · · Score: 1

    I've been playing around with this service lately: http://www.pplive.com/. It works relatively well -- I'm sure that it would work a lot better for me if there were more North American users. Apparently a lot of soccer ("football") fans use it. There are a couple dozen p2p streams of Chinese TV and radio. If only there were a few more English stations. =)

    The client looked a little sketchy at first, so I have been running it in a VMWare client. But that was me being rather paranoid.

    Streams take a while to buffer. Plus, it's tougher than regular P2P because the data expires after a minute or two (it's a live stream, remember). So it really depends on your upstream bandwidth. If you can't upload at least enough for 1 other person, you're a drain on the network! And, like BT, you're relying on charity if you're not pulling your own weight. My max upstream is around 300kbps - barely enough to do a 1:1 ul/dl raio. A lot of the time I'm depending on charity of others who have more upstream, and when bandwidth is scarce, I just can't get a stable stream.

    Oh, if you want to give it a try, CCTV4 is the state sponsored English language station.

  60. Cable Modems perfect for broadcasting? by LoKi128 · · Score: 1

    Remember back in the day when you could sniff your neighbohr's packets because all of the local cable modems shared the same segment? After all, the cable network at the lowest level is just a bunch of houses sharing the same copper line.

    Wouldn't this be then an ideal solution to distributing broadcast content? It would be exactly like today's premium channels, where everyone receives the data, but only some can decrypt it.

    I know that today, you can't sniff on the segment anymore, but I think that is due to the modem blocking out all other packets except yours, since the physical infrastructure of the cable system has not changed. AFAIK, it is still not point-to-point like the phone network, but I might be wrong.

    1. Re:Cable Modems perfect for broadcasting? by Ayanami+Rei · · Score: 1

      At least in my area, they've replaced the hardware on the street corner. We now have fiber coming into the junction box down the street, and copper going to each house. They've moved to using a cheaper, fewer-node headend a few hundred feet away, instead of having a large installation in the distribution facility. I imagine this headend works like a switch, not a hub, because I can't sniff anything.

      And they've switched to randomly assigning DHCP addresses with non-overlapping subnets (very frustrating for in-house networking). Sigh.

      --
      THIS THING CAN TURN ON A DIME, MACROSSZERO STYLE ALSO FUCK BETA, ~NYORON
  61. I would pay for such a service stateside. by Ayanami+Rei · · Score: 1

    This is coming from someone who already pays for cable TV.
    Streaming multicast video from local networks? It'd be like having my own satellite feed. CNN Pipeline and other current video-on-demand stuff is a weak attempt; unambitious and ultimately flawed in execution.

    --
    THIS THING CAN TURN ON A DIME, MACROSSZERO STYLE ALSO FUCK BETA, ~NYORON
  62. Home grown HDTV? by mabhatter654 · · Score: 1

    What we really should be doing is finding home grown HDTV applications. The HDTV specs are wonderful... alternate chanels, ditatal sound, time & date codes, data feeds, captions, ratings, all thrown into a digital signal if you want to do something else really cool. We need to start community/internet based HD efforts because it's obvious the big media isn't going to do it willingly. With PVRs and the internet, we could simply stream the HD content off the waves and watch it whenever we wanted.... who cares about schedules anymore anyway?

  63. I am by dj42 · · Score: 1

    I am, and let me tell you, it's a lot more satisfying than arguing about this kind of shit.

    Off I go.

    --
    We are one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively. Back to you with the weather, Bob!
  64. 110MB/sec from hard drives / WAY under on Cost $$$ by dj42 · · Score: 1

    Exactly how are you going to get a P4 3Ghz to serve up 110MB/sec sustained transfer from ordinary hard drive(s)? Backup system for 10,000 $2000 servers Network administrators for said facility Rental / building costs, office-space, utilities, security systems, security gaurds, etc. Electricity / year? What kind of PSU are you using / what is average wattage loads on these servers? Air conditioning, special catastrophe protection, off-site backup system, etc. Just to throw one number out... assuming 110 watt power draw (which is probably conservative) for these power servers that are going to push 110MB/sec sustained 24x7,10,000 servers would cost about $1,200,000.00 / year @ 110 watt power draw with 80% efficient PSUs (assuming $0.09 / kwh as national US average electricity rate). Then let's throw in cooling systems to keep that server room nice and chilly, and at least a few million in wages for the administrators and techs. Another couple million a year in replacement hardware... rental of the building....... The points is, 10K servers isn't just 10K * $2000. It's more like 10K * $7000. Oh, did you forget software licensing costs too?

    --
    We are one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively. Back to you with the weather, Bob!
  65. Re:What happened to the MBONE? by Limax+Maximus · · Score: 1

    In the uk where BT rule the DSL market home multicast via an ISP has to be converted to unicast at their core because BT do not have multicast enabled DSLAMs. Many of the LLU companies now have multicast capable DSLAMs so for them it is in their interests to provide multicast to home users (and then charge them for the stream) allowing much better use of their bandwdith.

    Of course, Universities on SuperJanet have access to multicast streams from the BBC and various others. It is a service that now I'd miss a lot.

  66. Re:110MB/sec from hard drives / WAY under on Cost by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

    I already postulated a better server architecture than actual P4s: a SAN more directly coupled to the routers, with more dedicated video hardware. The P4 costs are just a basis for multiplying scale - they're not the actual hardware to use. And 60K "server units" would be distributed around the Net, with lower electric costs in many places, especially in bulk, with greater efficiencies in the actual denser HW installations. Even at $10K per server, that's not much compared to $5K:mo for 1Gbps bandwidth to the server, so the difference in cost is largely negligible. And the couple of million in staffing costs are similarly within the margin of error of my very round numbers, which wind up talking about $250M:year in bandwidth costs. As for software licensing, that's a whole other question thatn the one we're discussing. Though I'd expect the server operation to produce it's own software, likely based on Linux, because no such system exists today. Just like Akamai did themselves.

    The real cost is the cost of the content. Either just media or interactive apps. But again, that's not what we're discussing. When we're talking about a system that serves a billion people, a few hundred million a year isn't too much - it's the revenue from just one hit movie that most of them would never see.

    --

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    make install -not war

  67. Cringely changes his column name.. by NekoXP · · Score: 1


    Cringely States The Obvious.

    The industry has been bleating about P2P for on-demand for years. It's the perfect solution for cable operators who have networks designed around INTERNAL traffic and pushing data around to subscribers. If the subscribers share the networking and you can have a city block feeding itself..

  68. Gridnetwork.com suffers under the Slashdot Effect! by QuatermassX · · Score: 1
    From the main page at Gridnetworks: "SLASHDOT ALERT!: A recent mention of GridNetworks, Inc. on Slashdot (via Robert Cringely's "Rules of the Road" article Saturday Morning), is affecting GridNetwork's overall performance at the present time. This "Slashdot Effect" should subside in the next eight-twelve hours. This effect has caused a high volume of player downloads and very quick expansion of our demo grid, so you may experience a significant slowdown in video performance during the period of unanticipated grid expansion. If you experience unsatisfactory performance today, we hope you'll visit us again in the coming week."

    So much for those unexpected spikes in bandwidth that a company like Gridnetworks should be able to handle.

    Oh, and props need to go out to Gridnetworks for one of the more amusing netbusinesspeak verbal cluster-fucks I've seen in quite a long while. From their "solutions" page: The monetization of media via the Internet requires the involvement of many specialties. Original content creators, distributors, aggregators, site designers and integrators, hardware and software vendors, hosting and bandwidth providers, user support specialists...the list goes on. For most, Internet content distribution has remained an expensive and complex proposition -- relatively few companies have married all of these moving parts to create a predictable, efficient 'content monitization engine.' The GridNetworks PowerGrid Platform(TM) was designed to address many key shortcomings of Internet content distribution and provide a means by which everyone in the value chain can easily participate in the success of each venture. PowerGrid is truly an end to end solution that is versatile at every level and every component."

    Versatile until mentioned on Slashdot. I see.

  69. BBC's interactive media player? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This uses peer to peer, anything thats broadcast on tv can be viewed online for a week afterwards- but it is free (at point of use).

  70. datacenter cannot handle it? wtf by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    The data centers will never be ready to serve 30 million concurrent streams of data. Akamai, with its tens of thousands of servers spread in an intelligent topology, still can't serve more than 150,000 concurrent streams,

    Uhh.. Datacenters have way more bandwidth cabability than an end node DSL off an oversubscribed DSLAM.

  71. In Other News - Downloading Vs. Streaming by Big+Nemo+'60 · · Score: 1

    Maybe it's old news, but I saw it first two days ago:

    Democracy - Internet TV Platform

    Out of curiosity (it's not like I watch much TV anymore, anyway) I'm giving it a try right now. Can't say much about the contents yet (about three hundred something channels right now, some look like video podcasts, some other apparently not working). On the strictly technical side, seems to work.

    Should we tell Cringely? ;-)

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    In the long run we are all dead. - John Maynard Keynes (1883 - 1946)
  72. Like this wasn't written by a PR person... by OhBrian · · Score: 1

    Isn't it great when a PR person's babble gets slashdotted by some "Anonymous Coward". Slashdot is the new voice of The Man.

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    Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.
  73. editors? by latroM · · Score: 1

    BitTorrent seems to have worn out it's welcome with the MPAA recently,

    It seems that even a non-native Finn would make a better editor than the paid natives here.

  74. Re:What happened to the MBONE? by mycall · · Score: 1

    Maybe if some Google VPN was to evolve, multicast could be deployed without the broadband suppliers implementing it?

  75. Re:What happened to the MBONE? by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

    Very interesting. Their portable data centers might be close enough to the last mile to make it feasible, provided they peer efficiently.

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    My God, it's Full of Source!
    OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
  76. Multicasting? by jdwegner · · Score: 1

    Has anyone considered using multicast streams to distribute content?

  77. Four Words: by Wikipedia · · Score: 0

    IPV6

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    P2P Anonymous Distributed Web Search: http://www.yacy.net/
  78. VBR? by Kawahee · · Score: 1

    Wouldn't variable bit rate be a solution? Newscasts etc could be done at 1mbit/s popping up to 4mbit/s for scene changes/live footage etc, while 'action' shows (sport etc) where codecs don't go so well with constantly changing content could use 2mbit/s up to 6mbit/s. Admittedly, sports would probably be in highest demand.

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    I'll subscribe to Slashdot when I see a month without a dupe, a typo, or an article the "editors" didn't read.
    1. Re:VBR? by elvum · · Score: 1

      The 4-16Mb/s figure is a variable bit-rate... ;-)

  79. Time to... by shekel · · Score: 1

    ...setup a Tor node!

  80. good lord stop feeding the troll!!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    submissions should be automatically disqualified and editors should be fired for linking to cringely...

  81. Shallowness is a virtue of those in a star network by rofthorax · · Score: 1


    Equally shallow: TV is too boring, so what.

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    Just say no to license servers!!