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Analysts React to PS3 Delay

Posted by ryuzaki0 on from the picking-on-the-downtrodden dept.

GameDailyBiz has a piece looking at some professional analyst opinion on what the PS3 delay means for Sony. From the article: "Merrill Lynch analyst Hitoshi Kuriyama cautioned, however, that we shouldn't take the global launch for granted as there are still many hurdles. '[Sony] still has a number of obstacles to surmount before it can achieve a simultaneous global launch of PS3 in November. We will need to keep close tabs on whether any further delays emerge because postponing the launch will worsen the company's competitive position,' he said in a research note."

76 comments

  1. Phew! by grub · · Score: 0


    I was going through "PS3 Delay" stories as the last one was 10:15 this morning.

    --
    Trolling is a art,
  2. One possible reaction... by Palshife · · Score: 4, Funny

    Analyst says, "Woohoo! Something insignificant hasn't happened yet, so I get to analyze it! Ooh! Maybe I'll analyze some other analyst's analysis! I love my job!"

    --
    Attention deficit disorder is a complicated issue, spanning several major... HEY LET'S GO RIDE BIKES!
  3. About the Delay... by those.numbers · · Score: 1

    I'm really excited about the PS3. It looks like it will be a great system. However, I'm worried these delays might backfire much more than they suspect.

    Bill Gates had previously stated he planned to release around the time of Playstation 3. Microsoft distanced themselves from those comments after it was apparent that Halo 3 wouldn't be ready in time, but with Playstation 3's delay this could once again become a threat to them.

    I just hope that the PS3 will get its fair shot despite being released later than it was expected.

    1. Re:About the Delay... by sexyrexy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      with Playstation 3's delay this could once again become a threat to them

      I'm sorry, are you suggesting that there is some sort of curve where launching the PS3 now would be less damaging to the 360's position than 6 months from now?

      --

      Rex is 09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
    2. Re:About the Delay... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think the delays, as sucky as they are, are actually helping Sony:

      1. The price of components goes down with time. The drops are very drastic at the beginning phase of a new technology (BlueRay in this case). The longer they wait, the cheaper it will be to produce the consoles.

      2. The delay gives them more time to figure out the compiler for the Cell processor. Let's face it - if developers can't make games for the PS3 without hiring PHDs, they won't develop games for it, no matter how good they might look. The compiler must make the game coding at least as easy as the current generation console, if not easier.

      3. Sony has time to see what Nintendo's up to. If they choose to gang up with Nintendo and also have a 3d input system, Microsoft becomes the odd man out.

      4. They can keep dangling the proverbial carrot in front of all the fanboys who will buy the PS3 even if they have to remortgage the house. The carrot in this case is pure hype, regardless if it turns out to be true or not.

    3. Re:About the Delay... by badasscat · · Score: 4, Informative

      Bill Gates had previously stated he planned to release around the time of Playstation 3. Microsoft distanced themselves from those comments after it was apparent that Halo 3 wouldn't be ready in time, but with Playstation 3's delay this could once again become a threat to them.

      Repeat after me: there is no US delay. This is a delay in Japan.

      Halo 3 in Japan will sell somewhere between four and six copies. So I doubt Sony is any more worried about this today than they were yesterday.

      The US plan officially has always been to launch the PS3 "this year." The only region to get an actual launch period was Japan, which was going to be "spring" of 2006. Given that, you can extrapolate from the launches of the PS1 and PS2 (which had Japan/US launches that were staggered by nearly a year in the PS1's case and around 8 months in the PS2's case) that the PS3 was probably going to arrive here before Christmas, but not much before. Most people had expected Thanksgiving or thereabouts.

      But the bottom line is you can't "delay" something that has never had a launch date to begin with, or even a launch month. Nothing more specific than 2006 was ever announced for the US before today. The delay affects Japan and Japan alone, so any talk of MS taking advantage of the situation is misguided. MS can no more exploit the situation as it exists today than they could exploit the situation that existed 3 weeks ago, because that situation hasn't changed in the west.

      My only guess about how all this confusion is happening even among supposedly highly-paid analysts is that somehow either a simultaneous launch had always been assumed (because, you know, MS did it) or some of these guys just simply failed to differentiate between regions. Not all of these guys are experienced enough to have been dealing with the game industry even back when the PS2 was launched. These analysts often deal with many different industries and they're not always as on top of things as it seems.

    4. Re:About the Delay... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It looks like it will be a great system.

      Yah. For grillin' chicken.

    5. Re:About the Delay... by Babbster · · Score: 1

      GP's post was poorly constructed, but I believe he meant that a Halo 3 launch at the time of the release of PS3 is possible again now that the PS3 has been officially delayed. Thus, the Halo 3 launch would again be a threat to Sony.

      Since I'm not a big Halo fan (though I liked the Xbox), I can't say that it would be a big deal to me. But, if Halo 3 "rocks" and brings a big new audience to the 360, that would indeed be bad for Sony. Worse for them would be if MS could find away to drop the price of the 360 in time for the PS3 launch - now that would certainly decrease demand for the Sony console. Of course, if Sony doesn't have the supply to meet the demand anyway they'll be able to, like Microsoft, declare success no matter how well the 360 is doing at the time...

    6. Re:About the Delay... by Babbster · · Score: 1

      You're right to the extent that you've successfully restated what has actually been said. Where I think you go a bit wonky is in your implication that the delay in Japan means nothing in terms of the US launch. If they can't get the PS3 released in Japan before fall/winter that means they would have less leeway to produce sufficient stock for a US launch this year. In other words, Sony would end up in the same situation as Microsoft with the Xbox 360, launching the system in multiple markets without enough hardware to satisfy demand.

      So, while no delay has been announced for the US launch one can reasonably infer that even if some US PS3s are shipped, Sony will not be able to ship as many as they would have if they had been able to make their planned spring launch in Japan. It could technically be considered no delay if each US store gets one to five PS3s to sell before December 31st, but it really is a delay since most of the people who would want them won't be able to get them.

    7. Re:About the Delay... by BenJeremy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Actually, I thought they had confirmed the delay in Japn until Fall of this year. That pushed back the US release until Spring 07.

      So far, Sony has done nothing to deny the Merryl Lynch report... well, they initially denied the delay, but now they confirm it. Nothing has been said about the cost of the unit, BOM over $800 - if true, means the unit will definitely NOT be under $500, as that is far too much of a loss to take on each unit (unless the games sell for $80-100 each)

      Of course, don't take my word for it...

      "I'm going to only say that it'll be expensive. I'm aware that with all these technologies, the PS3 can't be offered at a price that's targeted towards households." - Sony's Ken Kutaragi

      So expect units to sell for at least $650-700, and at that price, Sony is taking a huge bath; but also, it would be angering and alienating vendors of BD Players, which expect to sell for even more than that.

      Hmmmm....

      Honestly, it seems that Sony is doing everything in their power to kill the Playstation line. Fanboyism aside, you should at least understand the basic facts and realities of the situation.
    8. Re:About the Delay... by Babbster · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Oh, come on. You seem to be proceeding on the assumptions that a) a significant percentage of the owners of the other two consoles didn't have Xbox as well and b) the console market is the same as it was in 2001 (it's not).

      Halo 2 was one of the biggest videogame releases ever, and a huge percentage of the people who bought and loved Halo 2 still don't have an Xbox 360. Thus, a large number of those people will have increased interest in the Xbox 360 when Halo 3 is released, and I'm sure many of those folks will have to choose between Xbox 360 and PS3 - a choice in which available games (particularly one which they've been anticipating) will play an important part.

      Again, I'm not a big Halo fan myself (just not that into FPS games anymore). But the idea that the first two games haven't generated a huge fanbase - a fanbase that will want to play the third game ASAP - is without merit.

      Further, if we're going to use history as a guide, the PS2 launch lineup sucked hard. If the PS3 doesn't have a strong batch of games, the launch could really turn sour with the 360 getting its year-two lineup (not to mention the fact that there will be many 360s in stock by then while the PS3 could end up being another hard-to-find console at launch)...

    9. Re:About the Delay... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0


      Stop replying to this guy, he's paid to put out pro ps3
      and anti-xbox propaganda..

    10. Re:About the Delay... by GameEngineer · · Score: 0

      Go ahead and post the PS2,GameCube, and Xbox monthly sales numbers leading up to, during, and just after Halo 2 was released. I assume you have them at hand or have referenced them before and can bring them up quickly if you are trying to make some claim about the power of the Halo franchise to draw console owners away from Sony and Nintendo and onto Microsoft's platform.

      You should be able to clearly show a significant downtrend in Sony and or Nintendo consoles and a corresponding significant uptrend in Microsoft's console when Halo 2 was released as console owners either defect or start buying Xboxes at a higher rate due to the arrival of the game.

      Good luck, I know the numbers and you don't have a leg to stand on.

    11. Re:About the Delay... by Babbster · · Score: 1

      Sorry. I haven't been paying attention for the last couple weeks due to my PC being fried. :)

    12. Re:About the Delay... by OmegaBlac · · Score: 2, Informative

      In case anyone is curious, a list of the best selling console games of all-time is here.

      Heres some entries on the list of the Top 20:

      1. Super Mario Bros. 3 (NES - 17.28 million)
      2. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (PS2 - 12 million)
      4. Super Mario 64 (N64 - 11.62 million)
      6. Gran Turismo (PS1 - 10.5 million)
      7. Super Mario All-Stars (SNES - 10.5 million)
      15. Halo 2 (Xbox - 7 million)

    13. Re:About the Delay... by BewireNomali · · Score: 1

      the ps2 installed user base should prevent them from serious issue. I'm not certain what percentage of user base retention is enough to be considered a success - but if they keep 70% of the ps2 user base - they still have enough revenue to ride well into the next decade. the xbox 360 - it's weird... because while it's a great machine - I don't see enough of a compelling reason for other console owners to come over and purchase one. It's not MSFT's fault per se - the machine damn near does everything except make dinner. They're doing a moderate-to-poor job of convincing the non-console owner to come on the bandwagon - they haven't sold non-gamers enough to make it a good value home entertainment center. They also designed it poorly - as it looks too much like something that belongs in an adolescent's room as opposed to sleek living room decor.

      Much of this punditry is much ado about nothing. PS2 owners will re up on the PS3. It's msft that has to do more to appeal not to ps2 owners - but to the guy who doesn't game, but might be persuaded to buy one when his DVD player gives out and he considers an all in one solution.

      --
      un burrito me trampeó.
    14. Re:About the Delay... by mcc · · Score: 1

      So far, Sony has done nothing to deny the Merryl Lynch report...

      Merryl Lynch has been predicting random doom for the PS3 for at least nine months that I've been paying attention. As far as I'm aware Sony's not yet responded to a single one of them for any reason.

      Which isn't very surprising. If Sony bothered to confirm or deny everything Merryl Lynch said, this would probably constitute the majority of their news releases.

      --
      Irritable, left-wing and possibly humorous bumper stickers and t-shirts
    15. Re:About the Delay... by MMaestro · · Score: 1
      The US plan officially has always been to launch the PS3 "this year."

      Actually, no. The plan used to roughly be:

      Japan: "Spring"
      USA: "Fall~Winter-ish but before Christmas"
      Europe and Australia: "Eventually"

      Thats one of the reasons why nearly everyone is throwing fits all of the sudden. You're looking at a WORLDWIDE release in less than a period of roughly 4~5 months. (Fall through Winter and December doesn't count cause its too late into the season.) Unless Sony has been secretly stockpiling PS3 hardware parts, they are NOT going to meet a US launch before the Christmas season. The Japanese are already pissed off at Sony for the delay, American customers are gonna be rioting over what little imports manage to sneak out of Japan.

    16. Re:About the Delay... by MadJo · · Score: 1

      I'm anticipating the Revolution more than the PS3...
      I can't care less about the PS3.
      Ooooh it is going to have 4D and live games with lot's of spaces, whatever that means...

      Big shocker, it is going to be released around November '06, like we didn't know it already. Though March '07 seems more likely to me.

      --
      80 CC D8 AF AE D3 AB 54 B7 2E CE 67 C7
    17. Re:About the Delay... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The US plan officially has always been to launch the PS3 "this year." ... But the bottom line is you can't "delay" something that has never had a launch date to begin with ...

      So if the PS3 isn't released this year in the US, wouldn't you consider that to be a delay?

      Informative my arse, +5 Fanboy.

    18. Re:About the Delay... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Halo 2 was one of the biggest videogame releases ever, and a huge percentage of the people who bought and loved Halo 2 still don't have an Xbox 360. Thus, a large number of those people will have increased interest in the Xbox 360 when Halo 3 is released, and I'm sure many of those folks will have to choose between Xbox 360 and PS3 - a choice in which available games (particularly one which they've been anticipating) will play an important part.


      Keep in mind that many gamers were really disappointed with Halo 2, so I somewhat doubt that the third will do as well as the second. Also note that despite being popular, Halo is nowhere near the biggest franchise. For example, the Halo games have sold between 5-7 million copies each while GTA is at over 16 million per game and Gran Turismo at around 13 million.

    19. Re:About the Delay... by poot_rootbeer · · Score: 2

      if they keep 70% of the ps2 user base - they still have enough revenue to ride well into the next decade.

      Nintendo has a reputation for strong consumer loyalty. Let's see how their userbase retention has fared over the years.

      NES - 62 million consoles sold worldwide
      SNES - 49 million - 79% retention
      N64 - 33 million - 67% retention
      GC - 20 million - 61% retention

      So a 70% retention rate for Sony isn't too inconceivable -- provided that the new console costs about as much as the previous one did, as Nintendo's have. If the PS3 has an MSRP of $600, you're not going to see many casual PS2-owning gamers making the upgrade.

      [Xbox 360] damn near does everything except make dinner.

      Or play games that aren't combat or sports simulations. Okay, there are some, but there's really nothing on the 360 to woo (for example) RPG fans.

      they haven't sold non-gamers enough to make it a good value home entertainment center

      Because it isn't one. To do much of anything home-entertainmenty with it besides playing games or watching DVDs, you need a $1500 Media Center PC for the 360 to stream content from.

    20. Re:About the Delay... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I hate to comment in one of these PS3 R teh dlay3d!1! threads that's being used as filler these days, but Sony could do a worldwide launch even at this point.

      The Xbox 360 started production in August 2005. Of course, there weren't nearly enough units, so Sony would have to start production earlier than that, but it's feasible if they can get it up and running by Juneish.

      I don't think it's very likely though and we're going to see the PS3 doing a worldwide launch in a manner similar to the 360 including shortages and system failures and tepid launch titles. That whole fun deal.

      I am, however, eagerly awaiting the videogame media (as well as mainstream) coverage of the launch to see if my suspicions about certain biases are as true as I believe they are.

    21. Re:About the Delay... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or play games that aren't combat or sports simulations. Okay, there are some, but there's really nothing on the 360 to woo (for example) RPG fans.
       
      oblivion.
       
        Because it isn't one. To do much of anything home-entertainmenty with it besides playing games or watching DVDs, you need a $1500 Media Center PC for the 360 to stream content from.
       
      wrong, almost all 360 owners are using it just fine without a media center pc. http://www.microsoft.com/windows/windowsmedia/devi ces/wmconnect/default.aspx

    22. Re:About the Delay... by tbannist · · Score: 1

      You know, Halo 2 sold really well, but, meh, I preferred Halo. The biggest advantage was being able to play online, but my friends who own it quickly tired of playing with random assholes online.

      From my perspective, Halo 2 was sold by a massive marketing campaign and the success of Halo. However, it delivered less value than the first game. Especially with the Part1/Part2 campaign split lack of an ending in the orginal game. If Halo 3 hurts the PS3 it will simply be because of the amount of money Microsoft throws behind it. I'm not sure if they can top the launch for Halo 2, though. That was definitely the most expensive game launch in history, what with giving away free copies of the game and system to practically every TV news team in North America.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    23. Re:About the Delay... by apoc06 · · Score: 1

      add to that, halo2 and GTS:SA both came out around the same time. the launch of halo2 didnt have any effect whatsoever on the sales of GTA:SA.

      people who are waiting on the ps3 will buy a ps3. if they already have a x360 they will pick up the ps3 and maybe halo3 instead of one of the soso ps3 launch titles.

      but most likely, halo3 will not be ready in five months time. microsoft takes its time to hype a game of that magnitude. if halo3 is ready by november, i can guarantee it will be the buggiest, glitchiest piece of crap ever. expect halo3 to be released in 2007, in the same timeframe as the halo movie.

    24. Re:About the Delay... by apoc06 · · Score: 1

      i rememeber reading another one of the delay rumor reports here a few days ago, and the cause was due to a memo from one of the manufacturers of ps3 parts. they were supposed to start ramping up starting in june. so at best case scenario if they churn out 1,000,000 a month from june til november... thats easily five million units created by launch. that still wont be enough to meet xmas demand. i doubt they will be as strapped for units as the x360 though. microsoft made less than 2 million units in a five month period?!?!?

      theres no way on earth that sony will be able to crank out enough ps3s to meet demand. no matter how streamlined their manufacturing is or no matter what major titles are released on competing consoles. same will probably go with the revolution.

      speaking of which, when is that coming out anyways? =) sony let most of its plans out the bag, so now lets focus on the one question mark left.

  4. History lesson: do not believe Sony's hype by Stormwatch · · Score: 4, Informative
    Playstation, promised:
    * 1,500,000 polygons per second, flat-shaded
    * 500,000 polygons per second, textured

    Playstation, reality:
    * 360,000 polygons per second, flat-shaded
    * 180,000 polygons per second, textured

    Playstation 2, promised:
    * 66,000,000 polygons per second

    Playstation 2, reality:
    * 7,000,000 polygons per second

    Meanwhile, those who are honest and try not to overpromise get screwed up the pooper:

    Dreamcast, promised:
    * 3,000,000 polygons per second

    Dreamcast, reality:
    * 5,000,000 polygons per second

    --
    Circumcision is child abuse.
    1. Re:History lesson: do not believe Sony's hype by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What's sad is that you're a living, breathing troll-cum-astroturfer for Sony.

      For fuck's sake, how much are they paying you? Every single damn article about Sony you are out there shilling their crappy product all over. And your highly imaginative username really isn't fooling anybody.

      Get a grip you stupid tosser and take your shilling somewhere other than /.

    2. Re:History lesson: do not believe Sony's hype by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How much is Sony paying you, anyway?

      Sony did flat-out lie about the PS2 performance. They gave rigged demos showing graphics that we've never seen, claimed that it could generate graphics on par with the pre-rendered cutscenes (which, yes, look like Toy Story on DVD, even if they really were based on Final Fantasy games).

      Has the PS2 had ANY games on it were the game graphics looked as good as the prerendered graphics they demoed it being capable of? Nope. Never.

      The PS3 is going to be a giant bomb, if you look at history. Nintendo got the NES and SNES, and then lost on the N64. Each console manufactorer gets two. Now it's Microsoft's turn.

    3. Re:History lesson: do not believe Sony's hype by sam_paris · · Score: 0, Troll

      Err yeah, thats why games look so much better on the xbox and gamecube... because err the ps2 spanks them... Your imagined figures mean nothing, what people see are the games and everyone sees that xbox games look the best. Sorry, go back to your basement, fanboy.

    4. Re:History lesson: do not believe Sony's hype by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      The PS2 can crank out some 60-65 million flat shaded polys a second. I've done it myself. Any reasonably competent console engineer can or has done it with their Tool. Just like Sony stated it could. The PS2 has insanse fill rate.

      The Dreamcast has insane fill rate.

      Well, with nontransparent polygons. It's effectively infinite because the Dreamcast NEVER has overdraw with solid/punchthru polygons. So you could send 2 large triangles to cover the screen, then half a million polygons behind them, and get 60 FPS. All textured polygons. :P

      Heh. Almost all Dreamcast games don't even bother with back face culling. Because it SLOWS DOWN THE GAME. In Sonic Adventure 2, the only back face culled objects are character models, to avoid calculating lighting for unseen polygons Anything with static lighting is just sent to the screen.

    5. Re:History lesson: do not believe Sony's hype by jusdisgi · · Score: 1

      The PS3 is going to be a giant bomb, if you look at history. Nintendo got the NES and SNES, and then lost on the N64. Each console manufactorer gets two. Now it's Microsoft's turn.

      Dude, this isn't a seesaw on a playground somewhere. They aren't taking turns. There's only one example in the history of the world (Nintendo) and now you're certain that every console maker from now till eternity will get two winners? What a dumbass.

      (Note that I'm not saying anything about how any of the new consoles will do....just that you are a dumbass.)

      --
      Given a choice between free speech and free beer, most people will take the beer.
  5. This is an opening for Sony's competitors.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Both of them - not just MS. So many here (and elsewhere) are concentrated on only the megacorporate Goliaths of this console competition that they forget about the David (the only real gaming company) toiling in the shadows.

    While MS might have an opening in the US, where we like our games to truly spur the mind (boobies! blood! guns! teh Halo!!11!), Nintendo is the true competition in Japan - and they now have a chance at edging-out Sony on the launch schedule..

    1. Re:This is an opening for Sony's competitors.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Absolutely. Nintendo has been making games since the beginning. They have a lot more experience under their belt. Sure, they've made some mistakes, but don't we all? The fact is, after 20+ years, they're still very much alive and kicking. I think Nintendo has a huge advantage just from the fact that they're trying to increase the immersion of the gameplay rather than just going "OMGWTFBBQ MORE POLYGONS!" and "ZOMG HD!!!11one" I just bought an HDTV a few months ago, and I really couldn't give a shit if my next console outputs HD. Also, consider this: since the Revolution isn't going to be outputting in HD resolution, it could potentially have the ability to draw a lot more polygons, making the graphics look pretty on par with the 360 and PS3. I think the PS3 will be a flop. Especially since it's getting launched around the same time as the Revolution. We've all seen what Nintendo can do with the DS. I'm really excited to see what can be done with the Revolution. And we all know there's going to be some sort of integration between the two. (GC + Advance, anyone?) Anyway, I'll be saving my money for the Revolution.

    2. Re:This is an opening for Sony's competitors.. by apoc06 · · Score: 1

      i would like to see nintendo fare better this go around, but they really need to churn out some serious AAA titles quickly in order to capitalize on the early adopter market. due to the increased demands that games have required for the last two generations, excluding quality concerns, nintendo just couldnt keep up with sony in terms of overall title output. third party support is more important to a console than ever. since it takes longer than ever to gather and refine design and artistic elements for a game.

      as a gamer, i buy maybe up to five to ten titles a year, depending... i play even more than that. when i walk into a store ready to buy, the number of choices i have actually matter. i can not see myself walking into a store to buy a new title and only having four or so options. if im not a fan of the mario series, or if im tired of playing metroid, that leaves me much less choice in what to buy. thats the only reason i dont have all three consoles yet.

      nintendo ruled america in the 8 and 16 bit era, but we gamers have grown up. nintendo has not. the major pull that made nintendo such a ruling force back in those days was the number of games available. that was due to the sheer amount of third party developers. now that crown rests on sonys head. THATS why they are the market leader. not because they have the best hardware [because they dont], not because they create the highest quality games [you have 4 clunkers for every solid game], but because sony and its third party armada cater to /every/ market and genre. theres a sony game for everyone.

  6. Generator by Doomstalk · · Score: 4, Funny

    It's shame to see all that spin go to waste- we should attach magnets to these analysts and generate some electricity.

    1. Re:Generator by cswiger2005 · · Score: 1

      1. attach magnets to these analysts
      2. use spin they produce to generate some electricity
      3. use electricity to power more game consoles
      4. ?????
      5. PROFIT!

      You, sir, are a genius.
      (But, ha ha! I filed the patent application first!)

      --
      "The human race's favorite method for being in control of the facts is to ignore them." -Celia Green
  7. Delay? For Whom? by GameEngineer · · Score: 1, Informative

    The PS3:

    1) Has been pushed back two to three months in Japan
    2) Has the same schedule it always had in the US
    3) Has been moved forward in Europe

    Volume production of Cell chips for the PS3 is underway along with the RSX rasterizer for the system. Along with the BluRay drives, Sony is in the process of building up the components to be ready to start assembling them into final PS3 units in the May/June timeframe.

    Apparently they are on track to have enough units to ship about 500k systems to Japan in June but have decided to go for a simultaneous launch in all three territories in November with millions of units.

    Millions of European gamers are breaking open the champagne...

    Since the reason for Sony pushing back the Japan launch is software related to the BluRay AACS stuff, having enough hardware isn't going to be a problem. Demand will be absolutely crazy of course in November and December, but there will be a steady stream of PS3s coming out Sony each month - somewhere in the million or so a month.

    Can't wait for Nintendo to take their turn next.

    1. Re:Delay? For Whom? by Doomstalk · · Score: 2, Funny

      Millions of European gamers are breaking open the champagne...

      There are that many?

    2. Re:Delay? For Whom? by Keeper · · Score: 3, Funny

      Apparently they are on track to have enough units to ship about 500k systems to Japan in June but have decided to go for a simultaneous launch in all three territories in November with millions of units.

      That would have been awesome. Customers getting final PS3 hardware before game devs. rofl

    3. Re:Delay? For Whom? by wolrahnaes · · Score: 2, Informative

      Volume production of Cell chips for the PS3 is underway along with the RSX rasterizer for the system

      uh huh.....and nVidia publically stating that they are not recieving any payments for RSX chips this quarter (thus meaning that they're likely not producing them yet) seems to tell a different story.

      Given Sony's history of flat-out lying about the capabilities of their consoles, and nVidia's recent record of solid product launches, I'm going to have to trust nVidia over Sony (or a Sony employee, as you seeem to be).

      --
      I used to get high on life, but I developed a tolerance. Now I need something stronger.
    4. Re:Delay? For Whom? by Kjella · · Score: 1

      You use this map, right?

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    5. Re:Delay? For Whom? by sam_paris · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It amuses me how wrong you actually are.

      You try and speak as one with insider knowledge but whoever you are getting this from is completely barking up the wrong tree.

      My best friend recently stopped working for sony and he knows exactly whats going on.

      Get this, the sony devs themselves don't have final hardware yet. (ie SCEE, and US etc) Do you think many games will be released in November when all the 3rd party devs will only have received (according to Sony) final dev kits in June??? Currently the devs have no idea how games will run on the final ps3. In fact 3rd party devs only just received final versions of the graphics card. Given that the ps3 is officially the hardest console to develop for ever, do you really think sony will have any line up worth a crap if they released in November?

      At least with xbox 360 the main processor is powerful to run games that havent been properly optimised for all three cores. Whereas with ps3, you NEED to really optimise your code for CELL, which basically means every dev to basically start coding differently then they have done for years.

      You can believe me or not, I dont particularly give a damn. But come November you will see that Sony is full of bs. If it does release it will be Japan only, in small amounts with a paltry lineup.

    6. Re:Delay? For Whom? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're the idiot, fuckface. Sony does not have a system yet. If they did it would of been on display at the Tokyo show. They have fuck all. Devs might get their "final" kits in June which is just a Linux box with some similar hardware.

      Write this down and keep it near you: The PS3 will not see it U.S. soil in 2007.

    7. Re:Delay? For Whom? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are mostly correct, I just want to point out a slight difference between your statement and what Sony announced the other day:

      Developers are getting near final dev kits in June, not the final kits. This hardware is nowhere near ready for mass production.

      As of now, it looks like they're on Microsoft's schedule as of last year. If they have any playable demos at E3, they'll probably impress as much as MS's playable 360 demos did last year.

    8. Re:Delay? For Whom? by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      One thing that Sony has definately created is endless speculation and massive amounts of free advertising. It is now creating a sence of the whole gaming industry holding it's collective breath waiting for the arrival PS3. Microsoft and the xbox 360 hardly rate a mention in comparisson excpet in paid pieces.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  8. Good God, Let It Go Already! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Good God, who gives a crap about polygons?! While you are sitting there staring at your spec sheet for your console, I am playing Zelda, Mario, Jak and Daxter, Metal Gear, Halo, Soul Caliber, and loads of other games that are fun. Why in the hell do people like you give so much weight to these numbers? True game fans appreciate the game for the game, not how it looks. I am sorry that you feel like you were betrayed by some of these game companies, to the point of bringing this crap up all the freakin' time, but judge the system by what it plays, not the MIPS it is capable of. If the games aren't fun and they promised fun, then bitch!

    1. Re:Good God, Let It Go Already! by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "Why in the hell do people like you give so much weight to these numbers?"

      A lot of people treat game console purchases as investments. The rationale is similar to "I'll buy a $4,000 PC now because it'll 'last' longer." The theory runs like this: "the greater the specs, the more impressive the games will be towards the end of the system's life cycle. Towards the end of the cycle, the machine with the better specs is the one that's going to get the more ambitious titles." There is some data to support this. (Note: I'm not saying it's strong rationale, but I can see how some would see it this way.) Compare the SNES to the Genesis. Towards the end of both system's life cycles, the SNES had Donkey Kong Country and the Genesis had Vector man. Both were beautiful games, but DKC outshined VM. Saturn vs. Playstation? I think most of us know which clobbered the other. It would also be totally reasonable to say that the DC wouldn't have aged as gracefully as the PS2, GC, and the XBOX. (Amusingly, I don't think the N64 rocked the boat like it could have in this case...)

      Frankly, all three systems are a gamble. Nobody is buying any of these systems knowing what will be coming down the line in the next 5 years. The best that can be done is to look at the system's potential. There is this fear that they'll buy the system, and it'll turn out to be a dud purchase. Ask anybody who's purchased a Jaguar. So what do you do? Well, specs, when assessed properly, are about the only tangibles we have. I have faith that Nintendo will create some excellent titles for the Revolution. But do I actually know that? Really, I don't. I do know, however, the type of processor the XBOX 360 has. I know how much RAM it has. I can look at that and make a mental estimation of what it'll be capable of. These are numbers I can work with. That sort of make sense?

      In any event, I don't think specs alone are going to make or break these systems. All three are designed around 3D gaming. (as opposed to the Saturn vs. the Playstation, the Saturn was leaned too far towards 2D.) The artists are going to make a much bigger difference than the hardware. Take Resident Evil 4. Very impressive game. Despite the technical differences between the PS2 and the GameCube, it came out pretty much the same. I realize I'm taking the scenic route here, but I'm basically saying that I agree with you. Fuck polycounts, they don't matter anymore. I just hope that Nintendo's not stupid enough to develop the Rev with a big enough bottleneck to make the games feel watered down in comparison.

      --

      "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

    2. Re:Good God, Let It Go Already! by Per+Abrahamsen · · Score: 2, Interesting

      If you are mostly interested in the games that will be available near the end of the console life cycle, you should buy the console near the end of its life cycle where it will be much cheaper. Actually, if you are mostly interested in games, systematically buying second hand consoles with second hand games near the end of the life cycle will probably be most rational.

      But games and hardware has never been about rationality, it is about the incredible feeling of owning the latest and greatest, and the bragging rights that goes with it.

    3. Re:Good God, Let It Go Already! by StikyPad · · Score: 1

      The problem with that logic, at least with PCs, is that the hardware depreciation curve is often much steeper than that of the expected lifespan.

      As far as consoles, the systems are likely to have a 5 year lifespan, if history is any indication, and prices throughout that lifetime aren't likely to fall until the 2 year mark. Even at the 5 year mark, the price is likely to be around 50% of the original cost. While the actual savings would be slightly more, due to inflation and other factors, you can be reasonably confident that the price isn't going to fall off significantly in the 2-3 year range unless the platform dies. You might be able to find a used console for a lot less, but the advent of auction sites means that sellers can typically get a higher price for their used goods than in the past.

      Since console hardware doesn't depreciate as quickly, the best way -- and, really, the only way -- to save money is to wait 2-6 months to buy games. Most people don't have the patience, but those that do can often find games for $10-$20 instead of $50-$60.

      --
      https://www.eff.org/https-everywhere
  9. Spring Launch was JAPAN (and Ebay) ONLY by vandelais · · Score: 2, Interesting

    November is just affirmation of the more important and effective Europe and Americas launch.

    Secondly, the delay will allow for the unit costs of the components to decrease to a level where the risks of loss-leading are significantly reduced.

    If the delay is Blu-Ray related, as I have been hearing on CNBC all day, then the component cost for that piece alone will depreciate significantly.

    The difference between a loss of $150/unit and $190/unit (just speculation, here, no flames) would be huge.

    My only question here is whether I will be twisting off (diet) Coke or Pepsi (I'm a fat fuck)to try to get one.

    --
    Game: Player 'Donald J Trump' now has AI skill level 'experimental'.
    1. Re:Spring Launch was JAPAN (and Ebay) ONLY by jusdisgi · · Score: 1

      Dude, that freeciv sig is fan-fucking-tastic.

      --
      Given a choice between free speech and free beer, most people will take the beer.
  10. Durrrrrrrrrr- hurhurhur by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Yes, yes. Just ignore all the marketing bullshit Sony spouted before because THIS TIME THEY'RE REALLY TELLING THE TRUTH. Like totally.

  11. Meh, doesn't affect me terribly... by ShyGuy91284 · · Score: 1

    Now instead of Japan having 6m, US having 2m, and rest of the world having 2m sold by March, it will be something like Japan having 3m, Us having 2m, and rest of the world having 2m sold by march (I recall the figures being 7m expected to be shipped by March 2007).... Unless they chop US sales down to like .5m for the first 4 months, then I'll be rather irritated....

    --
    In undeveloped countries, the consumer controls the market. In capitalist America, the market controls you.
  12. wow! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This means absoloutely nothing for Australia because we'll still see them here in about 2012 :P

  13. We've always been at war with VU0... by CreateWindowEx · · Score: 1
    The PS2,GameCube, and Xbox all have roughly similar poly counts in real world shipping games - somewhere in the 10-20 million range. The PS2 spanks the other two for fillrate type poly effects, and the Xbox does a better job at multi-texture polys. But overall, all three systems are very close in realworld conditions...
    However, getting an full game (not just a triangle test) running on the Xbox or GameCube at those speeds was pretty easy, but getting that on a PS2 required much more time and effort (although justified by PS2's dominant market position) as well as causing irreversible brain damage to the programmer, and even some sort of Stockholm-syndrome where you start to identify with the machine that is holding you hostage at work...
    1. Re:We've always been at war with VU0... by GameEngineer · · Score: 0, Troll

      "However, getting an full game (not just a triangle test) running on the Xbox or GameCube at those speeds was pretty easy, but getting that on a PS2 required much more time and effort (although justified by PS2's dominant market position) as well as causing irreversible brain damage to the programmer, and even some sort of Stockholm-syndrome where you start to identify with the machine that is holding you hostage at work..."

      PS2, GameCube, and Xbox projects all have almost identical team sizes and project schedule lengths.

      Go back to cutting and pasting directx code clown.

  14. Adam Sessler's take... by Wraithfighter · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I was watching AOTS (Tivo treatement makes it okay) and they brought on Adam Sessler on to comment on it, and he brought up an important point:

    We all saw the train wreck that was the 360's worldwide release. Not enough units to meet demand by far.

    And sony's trying this themselves.

    So Sony's gonna have a difficult launch with shortages probably everywhere. and a launch lineup that is probably not going to be stupendous (what launch has been that good?), meanwhile Microsoft will have significantly more units on hand, a year's worth of titles to choose from, not to mention more than a few good ones by November, and the promise of Halo 3.

    Sure, there's the whole "latest greatest thing" part, but how long do you think it'll last?

    Maybe sony would be better off doing a Japan only release first, if they don't think they can meet preorders worldwide.

    Oh, but right, the industry makes all of their money in November and December...

    --
    Beyond the Polygons : Because 50,000 polygo
    1. Re:Adam Sessler's take... by nickyj · · Score: 1

      Exactly, look at Xbox360 launch. Pre-orders are probably 95% filled by now, almost spring. So if the PS3 is going worldwide launch it's only so you will keep your money in your pocket instead of buying an Xbox360. Think about all those people that would have got an Xbox360 NOW if they thought they weren't going to get a PS3 until Spring '07, now they have this slight slight chance of getting one before the end of this year. "Hope is a good breakfast, but it is a bad supper." -Francis Bacon.

      The Nov worldwide launch is just a marketing ploy to keep you waiting and to prevent you from getting an xbox360. There is no way they can fill demand. Most people won't be getting a PS3 until Feb '07. It's the Xbox360 launch all over again with supplies, bundles, ebay.

      --
      Causing Chaos Everywhere,
      Nik J.
      The strange world of a loner, in a populous city, drowning in society
    2. Re:Adam Sessler's take... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "(what launch has been that good?) "

      Dreamcast.

  15. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  16. Good lineup? by Jeppe+Salvesen · · Score: 1

    Given that the development kits have been out there for a good while, and that we might for once see good hardware availability upon launch - I have a feeling the launch will be a sucesss. The game development studios all of a sudden have much more time to put the polish on their titles - and Sony might have time to make a new killer gadget like the eyetoy.

    I mean, what killer games are there for the xbox360 anyway? It seems it's all rehashed games with upgraded graphics.

    --

    Stop the brainwash

    1. Re:Good lineup? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Once again, Dev studios will probably not use the extra time to polish and polish completely releasable games, they move on to new projects. Artists and Coders are far too expensive to keep around polishing, when they can do projects which actually bring more money in.

    2. Re:Good lineup? by rrdm2k · · Score: 1
      The dev kits that have already been handed out are incomplete "loaner" kits and the final dev kits won't be out till July, http://ps3.ign.com/articles/696/696076p1.html, however as you said this does give developers plenty of time to further polish their games even though I'd be surprised if any games were ready for a spring 2006 launch.

      Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter is the current "Killer App" for the 360, although Elder Scrolls 4: Oblivion may give it a run for it's money when it comes out next week.

      --
      "Almost nobody dances sober, unless they happen to be insane." - H.P. Lovecraft
    3. Re:Good lineup? by Toby_Tyke · · Score: 1

      I mean, what killer games are there for the xbox360 anyway? It seems it's all rehashed games with upgraded graphics.

      What do you think you're going to get on PS3? I'll tell you what, Gran Turismo 5 (or whatever we're up to now), GTA $some_new_city, Tekkan 5 (or 6, or whatever) Madden 2007 and Generic First Person Shooter 9: The Shootening.

      Which, to be honest, makes sense. If you're launching a new console, you want to have sequels to popular games in the launch line up to encourage the fans of those franchises to upgrade. It might not be what you or I want, but it does shift units.

      --
      "I realise this is not a very popular opinion but it's the truth, and there for needs to be said" -Bill Hicks
    4. Re:Good lineup? by Delphiki · · Score: 1
      Generic First Person Shooter 9: The Shootening

      OMG. I want that game. When is it coming out? Will it have big guns? Can I dual wield? Will it have online death-matches?

      --

      Feel free to mod me "-1 - Angry Jerk".

  17. GameCube by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    GameCube, promised:
    * 6,000,000-12,000,000 polygons per second

    GameCube, reality:
    * 20,000,000 polygons per second

  18. I'd like to see some techie reaction by Morgaine · · Score: 1

    While it's easy to get drawn into the launch timing hype (exactly as Sony wants), some random business analyst's reaction interests me a lot less than would any techie reaction. There's this severely cutting edge bit of hardware heading our way, but virtually no technical comment about it.

    This isn't through lack of raw data. The Cell is very well documented, and the graphics community seems to know what the RSX is going to be about. That should be enough for reams of technical comment, especially about how to bridge the gap from previous games architectures to the new one.

    Furthermore, Kutaragi's many comments about delivering Linux on the PS3 should be fueling a vast amount of technical discussion, both factual and speculative. Arnd Bergmann's work on running Linux on IBM's Cell blades would be expected to provide a good basis for it, if we assume that Sony/IBM cooperation extends to the Linux port. Do we know whether it does?

    What access is Linux likely to have into the high-powered backend hardware? BlueRay functionality will no doubt be tied up in chains, but presumably Linux will still be able to read ordinary CD and DVD media from the device, and play community-developed games, including online ones. And I'm sure I'm not the only one looking forward to running open media players and recorders on the console -- is the MythTV community talking about the console yet, for example?

    Let's have less business analysis and more technical commentary! :-)

    --
    "The question of whether machines can think is no more interesting than [] whether submarines can swim" - Dijkstra
  19. You may but ... by powerlord · · Score: 1

    Recently I was building a new machine and ran into a small snag.

    I figured since it was being built into a MicroATX case that I would go with all SATA drives. SATA II Hard Drives, and the new Plextor SATA DVD-DL burner. It made sense: Better bandwidth, better airflow == Win, Win ... or so I thought.

    I also figured I would take advantage of the nVidia chipset's RAID ability to make a more reliable system by going to RAID1 (heck, speed is already fast enough most of the time, and the MicroATX case only had 2 HD bays).

    Bought a MotherBoard from ASUS (who I've had really good experiance with), and ran into a small problem. Icould not get WindowsXP to install with the HardDrives in any RAID configuration and the Optical Drive connected. After lots of emails back and forth to ASUS, they finally admitted that the nVidia chipset doesn't support SATA Optical Drives when RAID is enabled.

    Rather poor design by nVidia, especially since this is their "latest and greatest" chipset.

    I realise SATA Optical is new, but the SIIG PCIe board I picked up recognizes it just fine, and the so does the nVidia chipset if RAID is dissabled. Whose bright idea was that?

    So, you may trust nVidia to "Get it right", but I don't.

    --
    This space for rent. All reasonable inquiries will be entertained at proprietors discretion.
    1. Re:You may but ... by wolrahnaes · · Score: 1

      That's a side effect of the shitty soft-RAID that these boards have. I'm running an A8N-SLI Deluxe, which has both 4 SATA ports of nV-RAID and another 4 ports from a Silicon Image SATA RAID controller. Both of them are the same crappy driver-based softraid masquerading as a proper RAID card.

      I don't think any comsumer motherboards actually have real RAID onboard. Hell, most server-class boards I see don't have it either, rather having either a ZCR expansion capability or ample slots for add-on cards.

      --
      I used to get high on life, but I developed a tolerance. Now I need something stronger.
  20. Grammar Editing by terrisus · · Score: 1
    From the article:
    "If Sony wins the Blu-ray/HD DVD battle, Sony's going to pass MS like their standing still."

    Needless to say, should be "they're."