Nvidia CEO Talks Next-Gen Consoles
kukyfrope writes "Jen-Hsun Huang, CEO of Nvidia recently shared his thoughts with the San Jose Mercury News about next-gen consoles, claiming that developing a chip for the 360 was too expensive and that the inclusion of a Blu-ray player will help the console last for 10 years. Huang also predicts that the 360 cannot afford to be a DVD-only system by Christmas 2007, likening the 360-DVD vs PS3-Blu-ray battle to the Dreamcast-CD vs PS2-DVD battle. 'The first PlayStation had a CD-ROM drive. The PlayStation 2 had DVD. It makes no sense for the PlayStation 3 to use DVDs. To postpone it by a few months so they could include Blu-ray was a master stroke. When that comes out, it's going to look so much more advanced than last-generation game consoles,' Huang said."
Doesn't Nvidia make the graphics chip for the PS3, but not the 360? Isn't that a bit like Firestone saying that Chevies are better than Fords because Fords use Goodyear tires, but the Chevies come with Firestone?
But, will I, as the consiumer buy it at that price? For me, the answer is no. Not enough incentive for me.
If we don't fight for ourselves no one will.
How many consoles have games available ten years after launch?
Just as Sony has talked about the PS2 having a ten-year lifespan, Huang believes that the PS3 will also last ten years
... cause I'm sure it'll be pricey!
So, we're talking about perhaps a 2016 Release Date for PS4? Just making sure, so I can start saving up my $$ now
For those of you that were confused by the intro, here's a rundown that makes more sense
The point about Blu-Ray and DVD is that the playstation is following an evolution pattern, waiting for the correct time to updrage. PS1 had CD, PS2 had DVD, PS3 has to evolve.
as for my opinion, i still use my PS2, and have no intention to buy an XBOX of anykind, (IE i don't have a XBOX 1) the PS2 can do everything i want, soon i will want to upgrade to newer technology, and i'll be looking at what's going to last me longer, and for now at least, that's not the XBOX.
thanks for listening
Why isn't this linked to San Jose Mercury news? Not in the club with Slashdot and gamebizdaily?
Yeah because the ps3 was released ten years after the ps2.... What they mean is that the console will be in production for that long. For example, the psone was just bought out of production last year. That's pretty close to ten years if it hasn't passed it.
The ps2 will be a ten year system if they can still sell it for the next 5ish years. Which they probably can due to strong brand name appeal and the expense of the new system. (ps2's still outsell xbox360's week by week now).
Hmmm... Pie...
I do not own a 360. I do not own an X-Box. I do own a PS2. Me, personally, I won't be purchasing the PS3 because it's too damned expensive! Wii all the way. Also, how much do you think Sony paid Nvidia to have him say that? I'm taking bets.
The actual uses of Blu-Ray versus the initial outpouring of cash are the real concerns.
Dreamcast's failure had little to do with the storage medium as many games released for PS2
were also released for dreamcast. (Not every game USES the full capacity of the medium)
Another thing to think about is that the world hadn't had a *significant* change in home video formats
for more than a decade when DVD first surfaced. The public was ready and willing to buy into DVD.
This time around the *demand* simply doesn't exist. Sony will of course try to *generate* demand
via bruteforce marketing, but ultimately this may prove to be a mistake.
BTW. There does seem to be a slight hint of bitterness in his comments, which is understandable given
that EVERY one of the next-gen consoles are powered by their rival's GPUs. (ATI)
It seems odd for Nvidia to claim that developing a GPU for the 360 was too expensive when ATI managed to
do not only that, but the PS3 and Wii GPUs as well.
Nvidia dropped the ball big time by not developing a new GPU for at least one of the nextgen consoles...
My issue with this article is that it assumes that the winner of the next-gen console war will be largely based on which console comes out on top as the graphics powerhouse between the PS3 and the 360. The fact that the PS3 has Blu-Ray and the 360 has the pedestrian DVD format is not going to swing buyers to Sony's side in and of itself. What will contribute to the success of the respective consoles will be the same thing (and arguably only thing) that has ever mattered when it comes to video games: the games themselves. Graphics will only take a console as far as they are able to make games that people want to play. The only thing that movitates anyone to go out and drop $XXX on a console is the fact that there is at least one game on it that they HAVE to play. I think that dispite all of the clamouring over prices and graphics power, in the buyers mind it will eventually come down to "do I want to play Halo 3 or Metal Gear Solid 4?" (or whatever the must have exclusive games end up being)
The XB360 has been out for almost a year soon, and the PS3 and Wii will be released in the near future. Isn't it about time to start calling them current-gen? Or will we wait until the XB^3/PS4/WWii is out until we start calling the previous incarnations current-gen?
He sounds remorseful enough that it indicates he wished Microsoft had picked Nvidia. But then again, he's also a bit glad:
So, here's the president of one of the main suppliers for the PS3 talking about how Microsoft didn't choose him, but even if they did, his company couldn't afford to actually build the GPU for the 360? Excuse me if I don't take his comments with a bucket full of salt.
To top it off, as in any article discussing graphics, we're about ten years away from photorealism, just as we were in 2001 and 1996.
To his credit though, I really liked this exchange which is in the full interview:
His response is, "Screw graphics, let's work on gameplay." I can't knock him for that.
Small potatoes make the steak look bigger.
I thought nvidia was doing the PS3
Now there's an ignorant statement if I've ever read one. Since when did storage medium directly affect the talent and output of a development team? That's like saying your daughter will be a better driver if you buy her a Lexus instead of a Honda.
Nothing. NVIDIA is just happy to have a partner now that Ati is in bed with microsoft... but that's my oppinion
I don't quite follow your post. Are you trying to say the 3D Prince of Persia isn't a sequel?
Dreamcast discs were not actually CDs but a propietary format called GD-Roms. This format held a full GB of data. Dreamcast however did support CD-R's for music and people soon quickly found a way to pirate games onto self-booting CD-R's.
For games that were too big, movies and other content had to be reencoded to a lower bitrate.
"360-DVD vs PS3-Blu-ray battle to the Dreamcast-CD vs PS2-DVD battle"
Eh, I'm not so sure about this. First of all, the Dreamcast didn't use a CD-ROM. It was a proprietary 'GD-ROM' that was actually a higher capacity disk (at least 1GB, i don't remember the details). The point wasn't that the dreamcast's media wasn't big enough to hold the content the developers were looking to put out, it was just that the machine didn't play DVD movies.
The 360 can play DVD movies just like the PS2 and PS3. It just can't play *BluRay* movies. The catch is, we're yet to find out whether people are even going to even care about that or not (format wars, HDTV requirement, DRM, etc).
Back then, one system had functionality that the other lacked, and that added functionality happened to be something that was important to alot of consumers. That being said, it surely wasn't the lack of DVD video functionality that broke SEGA.
We won't be seeing *games* that push the limits of each system's storage capacity for some time. Not to mention, most buyers buy the system that has the games they want to play. The only exception to that is a parent who doesn't care either way, so they'll more than likely opt for the cheaper (360/wii) or more kid-friendly (wii) of the bunch.
Han shot first.
From TFA
In the next several years, we will still just be learning to do the basics of film, like motion blur, depth of field -- all of that stuff alone chews up a lot of graphics processing
Didn't 3dfx (now owned by nvidia) already have tech to do just this? I believe it was called T-Buffering. Can anyone in-the-know fill us in?
BBH
He may think the blue-ray drive is the natural evolution but what if it turns out to be the next beta-max. I was at best buy yesterday looking at the demos of HD-DVD and blue ray in between pitches for warrenties and 8 free magazines, and I can tell you I wasnt impressed. Not by the display qualites OR the warrenties, subscriptions or Dirk the sales guy (what a f'in moron he was). I might have purchased a PS3 if it came with DVD but at the price with the BR drive I'll gladly wait it out. If it does become the next betamax Sony will have shot themselves in the foot.
I think it's a case of "It sucks, to me it doesn't exist" that fans of a series often employ on the part that jumped the shark. Can't blame them, Prince of Persia 3D really wasn't that hot.
Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
Tell that to IBM
A community-oriented lyrics site
Please remember your history, if price has never mattered before why should it now? I am not saying that the PS3 will be a success. I just don't think price will be the deciding factor. Or maybe my PC gaming has just made me think that 600 euro's for a system is not that expensive.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
No Madden no sale.
IMHO, the more advanced the console is, the less capacity it needs on the media. Back in the PS1 days, a large portion of the disk was dedicated to pre-rendered video and audio. The graphics on the new systems are advanced enough to produce the same quality video on-the-fly using an instruction set that is much smaller than the amount of space needed for the pre-rendered stuff.
So if the games don't need the extra space, the compatibility with movies is the only real reason to choose one media type over the other. Since I believe both new DVD formats (HD-DVD and Blu-Ray) will fail, the added cost to the PS3 isn't worth it.
Why is the PS3 so expensive when it includes a non-custom Cell Processor with only 1 General Purpose CPU and a non-custom Geforce 7900 512 with 256 megs of ram chopped off? Versus a Xbox 360 with 3 Cores each equal to the General Purpose CPU of the PS3 and a custom designed unified shader graphics solution with embedded ram with console gaming in mind? I just can't understand all the people wandering around claiming the PS3 is twice as powerful as a Xbox360. Just because they're waiting longer to release their console and adding Blu-Ray Sony is just pulling arbitrary stats out and tossing them around since nobody has the actual hardware to look at. Or they might try the "Hey look its more expensive therefore it must be better!" angle which works well in America.
From the full interview:
"SLI is probably one of the most important innovations that we have brought in the last several years."
3dfx had a very similar, albeit not identical, system ages ago.
"Nvidia 1.0 was building 3-D graphics. Creating the consumer 3-D market."
No, that was 3dfx again.
Of course, Nvidia bought the remains of 3dfx so perhaps they're counting that.
Revisionist history aside, the full interview here (not the watered down blog post), is really interesting, and exactly the sort of thing that should be on slashdot.
I quit!
For as much as we tech guys bash Sony and the PS3 this may turn out to be a stroke of genius. Think about it, right now, the general public doesn't know or much really care what HD-DVD or Blu-Ray is. Let's say it takes 2 or 3 years for folks to finally catch on. If the PS3 can just keep its head above water until then they could blow everybody out of the water.
Jump to 2008-2009: Let's assume DVD will be dead and/or dying. The price of the PS3 would probably be cheaper than a stand alone Blu-Ray or HD-DVD player. Satisfied PS2 gamers gradually begin to upgrade to PS3's. Then the casual consumer who's slightly interested in gaming picks up a PS3 because it's has more "bang for the buck". You couple that with the early PS3 adopters and you have a large installed base of Blu-Ray players which could tip the scales in Sony's favor. Sony goes after the porn industry to adopt Blu-Ray to put the icing on the cake (For those who don't know Porn's adoption of VHS over Betamax was a big factor in that format war).
From a gaming perspective the natural advancement of technology and innovative developers will require more and more from a console. As development costs drop, eventually, the built in hard-drive and high capacity blu-ray drive in every PS3 will be very attractive to those developers trying to push the limits of gaming in graphics and gameplay. The 360 will be constrained by DVD and the lack of a hard drive in every unit, and the Wii (while innovative) will be constrained by relatively under powered console by 2008-2009 standards, and a decidedly younger user base.
If the PS3 can make it through the bad press and the high price and "stick around" so to speak, they may win this thing yet again. Sony's made some missteps but if you look at the PS3 in this context there is good chance Sony could be really successful. Because unlike MS and Nintendo they have attempted to "future proof" their console. If the things above fall in place the hated Sony could wind up on top of the heap again. I guess I shouldn't be surprised, they didn't get to be Sony by lacking business sense.
Also, we'll have a HD DVD playback accessory for the Xbox 360 available this year. Given how much more successful HD DVD has been compared to Blu-ray so far (many more titles, with much higher average video quality).
Given the price differential between PS3 and the 360, the consumer will have the choice between paying around the same for game consumer + HD playback, but those who just want to play games can ge the 360 without HD disc playback, with the option to upgrade later.
My video compression blog
For the amounts of money Microsoft and Sony were willing to throw at GPU makers and the performance they were expecting to get in return, Microsoft's GPU was more expensive versus profit for the manufacturer. Another way of putting it is that the margins were lower.
Is that it forces you to rebuy all the DVD movies you have in the Blu-Ray format.
...
If you chose HD-DVD, you could still play your DVD movies and videos.
Just think of all the money flowing into Sony's and NVidia's pockets from that!
.
. oh, wait, maybe what's best for Sony and NVidia isn't what's best for the consumer
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Back in the day I bought a PS2 because it allowed me to also play DVDs. Blu-Ray is the reason that I'm waiting for the PS3.
$600 for a next gen console that also plays all my PS2 games and a next gen movie player? Sign me up!
I gotta this there's a hell of a lot of people that see this value proposition besides myself.
Cheers,
Bill
PS But I hope Sony can speed it up a bit. I've had a 360 in my hands at Costco twice now and had to talk myself down.
bamph
This time around the *demand* simply doesn't exist. Sony will of course try to *generate* demand
via bruteforce marketing, but ultimately this may prove to be a mistake.
That is spoken as if you have not seen how much better true HD content looks. Even on just a 720P display the difference between HD video and DVD is striking and easy to see. All it takes is a few viewings and people want HD sets - that is why sales of the things have been pretty good.
Migration of a new HD format is also vrey easy for those that have Netflix, since the rent both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD discs. What is going to happen when lots of people start getting PS3's and trying out Blu-Ray discs is that worth of mouth is going to grow the demand for HD sets and content rather dramatically.
Sure there is not a differenc in random access like there was between VHS and DVD, but quality is substantial enough to create a demand, though I think it will be a slower ramp than DVD was.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
While I agree with your primary point that in the end games matter most to console success, I do think that the extra storage space the PS3 offers will lend some advanatages, especially in a few years. Game developers will take advantage of that space and were complaining even before launch about the 360 not including HD-DVD drives.
Basically that extra space gives game makers more options, which can in turn lead to a potentially wider number of good games (just on a percentage basis).
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
To my mind, even if Blu-Ray does not succeed as a consumer movie format it's irrelevant - at that point it would essentially be like the myriad of other proprietary game delivery systems, like carts or the custom Gamecube discs. The game makers still get the benefits of a large amount of storage to deliver games upon.
However I think it is unlikley that Blu-Ray will fail to that degree, in part because every PS3 will have one and so consumers will start using it, in part because those already having Netflix subscriptions can try Blu-Ray discs for free and see the improved quality of movies for themselves.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
The 360 will be constrained by DVD and the lack of a hard drive in every unit, and the Wii (while innovative) will be constrained by relatively under powered console by 2008-2009 standards, and a decidedly younger user base.
On these two fronts, I think that the 360 developers already assume that everyone has hard drives so I don't know the silly bundling move that Microsoft made will actually hurt them that much. I think we'll see the hard driveless bundle dropped before the end of the year.
As for the Wii, though it's less powerful than the 360 or PS3, it's not so much less powerful that it cannot hold it's own trading off slightly reduced graphics quality and a ceiling of 720p (which still looks pretty darn awesome) and of course teh control scheme. I do think that will yield some pretty cool gaming moments.
However I do agree that the PS3 is the most future-proofed of all the new systems, and in just a few years will have a huge advantage over other systems because of the newer tech they have put into it. Microsoft may respond by producing more pwoerful 360 systems with HD-DVD or Blu-Ray built in.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Actually some cutscene heavy games can be fun as well, even if generally they are less interactive - but that is one of the kinds of expansive options I was speaking of that can provide more variety.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
At the end of the day, he's right. Yes, the bias is clear to understand but it's not hidden. It's right out there in the open for all to see. Let's look past that and listen to the message for just a second.
All he's saying is that the inclusion of a next generation movie format will be important to the success of the console. He's right for a couple of reasons.
1) Whoever wins this round of the format wars will be the last optical format for the delivery of movies and games.
2) By shipping a popular game console with a next-generation format, SONY has a *significant* advantage of HD-DVD.
3) Blu-ray can hold a lot more per disc than a DVD, and even an HD-DVD.
4) Online distribution will only increase over time. Eventually this will replace optical formats as the primary means of software and movie distribution. Sony wins on both accounts because they will control both ends of the distribution chain.
5) In order to position the 360 or Wii as true convergence machines in the near future, both consoles will require an optical format to sustain themselves until online distribution eclipses optical. NEITHER HAVE IT. And if they add it later, it will create confusion and SKU's that won't have the same abilities. By not coming out of the gate with a next generation format, they both loose this critical angle.
6) HDTV will become the norm over the next 5 years, which is SONY's prime selling window for PS3. In this time it will cover both te optical and digital distribution of movies and games for HD format.
What is the only negative? Initial cost until the price of Blu-ray production comes down. That's not that big of a deal really. It's not goi to even DENT the initial sales. Early adopters will pay whatever it takes. Over time, the price of the fully equipped HDMI SKU will decrease in price, reducing the entry point for the people who will be purchasing the console in 2007 and beyond.
"Politicians find new names for institutions which under old names have become odious to the people."
The First Prince of Persia was an Apple II release. It later saw PORTS to other platforms, including but not limited to: the Mac, the PC, and the SNES.
There's a rather large gap in the logic presented here. Specifically, the whole DVD-vs-Blu-Ray argument assumes that the content of each is completely unique. This is not going to be the case.
Just as with the current generation, there will be a fair number of exclusives on each platform, but the bulk of the games will end up being on both the PS3 and the 360. And possibly on the PS2 and maybe Xbox for a few years yet as well. With skyrocketing development costs, this trend is likely to increase rather than decrease - the cost of developing multi-platform is often offset by the potential to reach a much larger market, and thereby sell more games.
In the context of game development, you often hear the term 'lowest common denominator' being thrown about. It's the reason that add-ons like Hard Drives never really caught on, and it wasn't until the Xbox included one as standard that developers actually began to use it. It's also the reason why, even if MS added the capability, almost zero games would be produced for the all-but-confirmed HD-DVD add-on for the X360. Developers will always target the common hardware, and thus will rarely bother with an add-on unless practically everyone has it.
What I'm leading to is pretty simple. PS3 will have the ability to use Blu-Ray discs, but by all accounts it should also support DVDs. 360 uses DVD. PS2 uses DVD. Xbox uses DVD. Even cutting the current-gen consoles out, DVD is the lowest common denominator. Any multi-platform game is going to have been developed with DVD in mind (to work on the 360) and it will only be the PS3 exclusives that will go Blu-Ray. It's quite likely that a lot of the time developers aren't going to find they need the extra capacity anyway, and I'd expect it won't be until the third generation of PS3 games that we start to see stuff that really uses the Blu-Ray's capacity. Certainly, the PS3 releases of multi-platform titles will probably be able to include slightly higher-resolution textures, but that would be about the only content that could be used to pad the discs out. Given that the capabilities of the X360 and PS3, graphically, are rougly very similar, there shouldn't be any engine-hobbling going on, and we're well past the era of having hundreds of minutes of pre-rendered FMV. There simply won't be any extra to add to the PS3 version.
A lot of the time people cite the fact that a lot of PS2 RPGs have been on two DVDs, examples including Xenosaga II, Star Ocean 3 and I believe Final Fantasy XII. These are actually split over two DVD-5s - they'd fit on a DVD-9 but the earlier PS2s have trouble with dual-layer DVD-ROM content. This actually illustrates another issue with including immature media technology in consoles, but that's neither here nor there. The only real genre of game that could potentially exceed the bounds of the DVD format are the larger RPGs, and even then, most RPG gamers are quite happy to have the game split over two discs. Speaking as a big fan of these games myself, it actually feels like you've gotten something bigger and more impressive when it's split up. A bit of a 'wow, it had so much content that a single DVD just wasn't enough!' deal, even though I know that it's only split up that way because the PS2 isn't very good at DVD.
Really, there is no real need for Blu-Ray (or HD-DVD, for that matter) for games until the platforms are both quite mature, which should be a lot later than the end of 2007. There is definitely no practical justification for socking consumers an extra $200 for the privilege. The only real reason we're seeing it in PS3 is because of the media and electronics side of Sony's business dictating the policy for the other wings of their entertainment business. I'd hate to be a Sony Computer Entertainment exec right about now, I bet they don't want to be selling the damn thing with Blu-Ray in it either.
Since when did saying how something will look have anything to do what you think about how it's going to perform?
I dunno, things are looking pretty photorealistic next gen.
Check Crysis and Gears of War.
The issue now is more making the animation look realistic. Which may well take a few more years.
Videos of Crysis look damn good for animation though.
Odd that you were never modded up or responded to - you make excellent points and I think you have a great summary of all the major points in Sony's favor.
I just cannot understand how people ignore the obvious advantage Blu-Ray and Sony have with millions of players in peoples homes by the end of the year. As a way to jump-start a format, it is an awesome sight to behold from just the sheer scale of it.
If Microsoft had included HD-DVD I would not know which way the fight between formats would go down, not even with Blu-Ray having a slight edge in the number of studios. But with the PS3 having Blu-Ray by default it's going to create a positive feedback loop of people buying a PS3 discovering the benefits of HD video with Blu-Ray and also people wanting the cheapest Blu-Ray player possible also getting into PS3 games. I think Microsoft may be forced to step in later and produce a 360 with built in HD-DVD and HDMI, but even doing so today seems to be too late as the inital adopters with any interest already have a 360 and just the inclusion of HD-DVD in a new model is not enough to make people spend again so soon (not even if Halo 3 is HD-DVD only, which I don't think they have to guts at this point to do).
The only point you make I am not really sure about is Blu-Ray being the last optical format... holographic discs and other ideas seem pretty promising, and could provide an order of magnitude leap over even Blu-Ray storage. But I don't know if that would be anything but a data format mostly on computers or if it would move into the consumer media storage space anytime soon.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley