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Scientist Forced To Remove Earthquake Prediction
Hugh Pickens writes to mention that Italian scientist Giampaolo Giuliani, a researcher at the National Physical Laboratory of Gran Sasso, recently gave warning about an earthquake that was to happen on March 29th of this year near L'Aquilla. Based on radon gas emissions and a series of observed tremors he tried to convince residents to evacuate, drawing much criticism from the city's mayor and others. Giuliani was forced to take down warnings he had posted on the internet. The researcher had said that a 'disastrous' earthquake would strike on March 29, but when it didn't, Guido Bertolaso, head of Italy's Civil Protection Agency, last week officially denounced Giuliani in court for false alarm. 'These imbeciles enjoy spreading false news,' Bertalaso was quoted as saying. 'Everyone knows that you can't predict earthquakes.' Giuliani, it turns out, was partially right. A much smaller seismic shift struck on the day he said it would, with the truly disastrous one arriving just one week later. 'Someone owes me an apology,' said Giuliani, who is also a resident of L'Aquila. 'The situation here is dramatic. I am devastated, but also angry.'"
So, your an american to?
The research put forward by Giuliani is from the 1980s and 1990s and was found to be completely unusable as a predictor. People make predictions of quakes all the time and some of those will be correct just by chance, which is likely the case here. Furthermore, finding correlation with radon does not mean it can be used as a predictor. You cannot evacuate cities for long periods just to find out that it was a false alarm.
That is heard quite often: "even with science, you can't..."
You know, some day we just might. Maybe not today, maybe never, but please, when someone who knows more than you about a certain topic warns you, listen!
Free beer is never free as in speech. Free speech is always free as in beer.
the government force you to take down posts on the internet? I know little of the Italian legal system, but even if he was pretending to be an expert, wouldn't that fall under some form of freedom of speech? We have pseudo-experts on /. all the time, wouldn't this fall under a similar "just ignore him" sentiment?
My immediate reaction is to say, "Ha! Science, bitches: It works!" and laugh at the officials who denounced the prediction. However, the very fact that the prediction was *so* precise, saying that the devastation would strike on a certain day, seems particularly irresponsible.
My thoughts go to those hurt in this incident. As the official says, though, it's not a habit to plan for stuff like this---perhaps it should become so.
Does anyone have data on how many truly false predictions have been made? Because one out of X might not be enough to condemn the politicos and glorify the scientist. Clearly these things do need to be managed carefully.
Web2.0: I love when people Flickr my cuil and digg my boingboing until my google is reddit and I start to yahoo
This is almost as ironic as when Bobby Jindal (governor of Louisiana and one-time preznitial hopeful) mocked funds for volcano monitoring in the federal budget, and a week later an Alaskan (monitored) volcano blew up, with an orderly response since the eruption had been predicted for some time. Attention politicians: science is not negotiable. It's part of that reality thing not on your side.
Remain calm! All is well!
That seems like a pretty good improvement in earthquake prediction. If this guy can consistantly predict earthquakes with a +/- of one week, I'd say he's doing something right, and should be listened to. But he has to do it consistantly. One out of one is a good start.
Halitosis - (n.) Halle Berry's Camel Toe.
It is quite easy to predict that an earthquake will happen. However, what is the accuracy to the where, when, and intensity? If you do not have enough accuracy then you just create panic. The article says that Giuliani was partially right! So what? A broken watch is right twice a day, that does not make it a scientist.
Did he give a time range or just a specific day? The mayor might have had the information badly digested for him by his minions, in which case it's a case of miscommunication. If he claimed to the day as the article suggests then it's his fault, he should have been more careful.
Also how often do they get false predictions? (broken clock right twice a day etc....)
Everyone knows you can't predict earthquakes!
And global warming too!
So, hah!
If indeed, it is "impossible to predict earthquakes, it seems to me that getting a minor quake on-the-day of prediction, and the major quake hitting a week later is pretty much as good as could possibly have been expected.
Now if all he did was guess, it'd be a whole different ball-game, but as far as I remember, doing this "science" thingy involves recognising a problem, taking measurements, postulating a theory to fit those measurements, and (sadly, in this case) testing that theory against further predictions it made. Seems like he followed the rule-book on that one...
Part of the problem, of course, is that people (including, one might say *especially*, elected officals) aren't good at assessing risk. They consider risk to be the consequences of an event, whereas really it's the consequences of an event multiplied by the probability of that event. It's why we look out for "global killer" meteorites, even though they are incredibly unlikely. The risk inherent in such a strike makes it worthwhile to keep putting in the effort at detecting them. It's easiest to illustrate when the fate of the whole world lies in balance, but the principle remains the same even for localised disasters such as this one...
So often, it comes down to better education being the key to good decision-making. Why is it that we let people who only want to run for power take on the mantle of power over us ? I recall a Sci-Fi story where on election, all a (wo)man's worldly goods were forcibly sold, and the cash amount held in trust. Once the successor appeared, the departing official was given access to his/her trust fund again - the implication being that you had to do well by everyone else before you could do well for yourself. I'm not suggesting this is workable, but perhaps an element of personal stake might be a useful thing for a politician to have... Perhaps then they'd listen to the scientist, and not just go on gut instinct...
Simon.
Physicists get Hadrons!
this man can pretty much go to any city on the planet right now, make an excitable announcement, and cause a mass exdodus
that's a rather interesting gift
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
you cant be right once and be believed,
you have to be right twice.
i look forward to any future seismic prediction technology.
complete with references.
of which this event will most likely be a hard data point.
Suppose the earthquake's precise location and time were known -- what then? Would there have been any way to spread out the total damage either over a larger time interval or over a greater radial distance?
We can somewhat control fires: we have a preventative measure -- public education and we have a cure -- firefighters. We can somewhat control floods: we have levees. We can't control tornadoes very well, though perhaps with some cloud seeding, we might be able to in the future.
But how does society mitigate the effects of earthquakes, especially in areas with very ancient architecture?
How dare you be inaccurate in your warning about the timing of a natural disaster? You caused me to be outraged and dismissive on record in the media! Now people think I'm a douchebag, and it's all your fault!
Must be a European thing. I'm sure nothing like that could ever happen here in the good ol' US of A.
'These imbeciles enjoy spreading false news,' Bertalaso was quoted as saying. 'Everyone knows that you can't predict the release of Duke Nukem Forever.'
It's pretty clear that no one owes this guy an apology (from the article)
Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after Giuliani predicted the quake was about to strike.
Yes, he predicted that a major earthquake would happen. But he didn't predict when with enough certainty or accuracy to make his prediction useful.
[Enzo Boschi, the head of Italy's National Geophysics Institute] said the real problem for Italy was a long-standing failure to take proper precautions despite a history of tragic quakes. "We have earthquakes, but then we forget and do nothing. It's not in our culture to take precautions or build in an appropriate way in areas where there could be strong earthquakes."
It breaks my pluginses, my precious!
If he was legally compelled to fall silent in his warnings, whoever silenced him should be jailed for involuntary manslaughter or at least criminal negligence causing death. There should be equal consequences both for yelling "fire!" when there is none, and for yelling "no fire!" when there is.
A government is a body of people notably ungoverned - AC
/wink.
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
Unusual readings from the planet Krypton were denounced as fear-mongering sensationalism.
Particularly brain dead politicians. Wasn't it also a local Italian prosecutor that decided the best way of dealing with a video of some kids bullying another one, was to sue Google?
I'm not saying Italy has a monopoly on boneheaded politico's but their particular brand of antics seem to stick on my mind.
Well, if a police officer was stopped from preventing some catastrophe, and also humiliated in the process, how do you think that officer would feel?
Hell, instead of a police officer, how about any person at all?
Weak analogy. Getting within a few weeks of correct on an event that occurs irregularly on the scale of decades to centuries seems pretty good to me.
Now, given that the economic and logistical viability of moving a large number of people out of their homes and to somewhere else plummets after just a few days, his prediction wasn't good enough for use; but equating him with the boy who cried wolf(who, you'll remember, was deliberately dishonest, not merely wrong) is a bit much.
Unless the quality of earthquake prediction gets considerably better, the punchline is that the money is better spent on decent architects and engineers. Building structures that won't collapse and crush everybody inside isn't trivial; but it is doable now, which makes it a better investment.
Has anyone recorded earthquake prediction measurements and compared them? I would be curious to know which ones have been closest to the mark and on what frequency? I suspect different measurements are likely to be right some of the time, but not all the time, because the seismic triggers may vary from region to region.
Jumpstart the tartan drive.
This reminds me of a program I saw on the science channel, which predicts a major earthquake in Istanbul due to a series of quakes before it (it was something like 'earthquake storm'). Perhaps they could use this guy's methodology to try and estimate a time of impact?
"Our goal each year should be to increase the number of goals we set for ourselves!"
Suppose the earthquake's precise location and time were known -- what then? Would there have been any way to spread out the total damage either over a larger time interval or over a greater radial distance?
We can somewhat control fires: we have a preventative measure -- public education and we have a cure -- firefighters. We can somewhat control floods: we have levees. We can't control tornadoes very well, though perhaps with some cloud seeding, we might be able to in the future.
But how does society mitigate the effects of earthquakes, especially in areas with very ancient architecture?
i don't know, but maybe there's a way to put giant springs that absorb any translational motion and spread that out over time after the earthquake has already struck. i think any solution you may be looking for in this particular situation will have to be some sort of hack. you can't have it both ways -- have old buildings and expect modern protection.
Giuliani Mad!!!
Remember the Prophet units in the Empire Earth games? In ancient times they started out as religious shamans. But once you played up to modern times they were nutjobs wearing "The End Is Near!" sandwich boards. They could cause earthquakes.
"I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
This is more like a guy (boy) who has spent years researching wolves to a degree that he has wolf detection methods that pick up on wolf phermones and indicators that systematically suggest when the wolf might *actually* show up.
I think the problem here is saying ludicrous things like "It will happen on March 29th". That's simply trying to get one's name in the paper, so to speak. A more rational approach, if the underlying science fits (and I don't think seismology or vulcanology is at the point where you can say anything definite like this) is to say "Look, I'm getting some very troubling readings here that suggest that a major earthquake is imminent."
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
It sounds like the guy kinda went about it the wrong way. He should have just had a note or a webpage up with his current data and predictions with chance of an event happening on any given day. Folks would treat it sort of like a weather forecast.
Heck, when it comes to weather, we like to look at the live radar maps and make our own decisions. Hey it's going to be raining for the next hour or two... ;) We aren't quiet there for earthquakes, yet.
I was going to explain it but instead I'm just going to say whoosh instead
These comments are my personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the other voices in my head.
"Italy earthquake leaves 130 dead and scores more trapped under rubble" http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/06/italy-earthquake-victims I'd say being off by a week or so in this case isn't bad science at all.
to say "Look, I'm getting some very troubling readings here that suggest that a major earthquake is imminent."
Which would have been met with, at best, polite disinterest. So, in practical terms, the result would have been the same.
Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
Weak analogy. Getting within a few weeks of correct on an event that occurs irregularly on the scale of decades to centuries seems pretty good to me.
The funny part is, he was *immediately* labeled an imbecile when the earthquake was late.
I shouldn't be making jokes at a time like this. I'm sorry. Please mod my previous comment down. Thank you.
Science demands more than a single data point of "within a week". He needs to get more data points so we determine whether he was just lucky or whether his predictions have some real value.
If you throw out predictions left and right, well sooner or later you may get lucky. That doesn't mean you are actually any good at predicting. The predictive value of a model doesn't come from getting a single answer right or near right, it comes from accurately modeling reality. That means having a track record of predicting events, and not making predictions when there are no events.
As an extreme example I could make a computer program that predicts a major earthquake every single day. You input a day, it says "Major quake will happen." Well, that program would occasionally be right. Any time an earthquake happened I could claim my software predicted it. However that wouldn't me meaningful, in the face of the massive number of false positives, the thousands upon thousands of days where it was wrong.
So ya, I need to see some real data that shows that his software had a reasonable prediction rate, not just that he happened to get lucky this time.
Who's predicting when the Vulcans will show up?
Not a Twitter sockpuppet... but I wish I was.
Unless the quality of earthquake prediction gets considerably better, the punchline is that the money is better spent on decent architects and engineers. Building structures that won't collapse and crush everybody inside isn't trivial; but it is doable now, which makes it a better investment.
Add disaster recovery to that list. When you can't predict a disaster, you make sure you'll be handle it efficiently after the fact.
Also, investing in disaster recovery is great because it helps you against a lot of different threats. Mass terrorism, earthquake, etc. all involve more or less the same logistical considerations about moving lots of people/food/water/medicine quickly.
Weak analogy. Getting within a few weeks of correct on an event that occurs irregularly on the scale of decades to centuries seems pretty good to me.
So the guy gets some credibility and maybe individuals will take his advice next time.
Now, given that the economic and logistical viability of moving a large number of people out of their homes and to somewhere else plummets after just a few days, his prediction wasn't good enough for use.
No need for mass or forced evacuation. Each person should decide for himself.
Unless the quality of earthquake prediction gets considerably better, the punchline is that the money is better spent on decent architects and engineers. Building structures that won't collapse and crush everybody inside isn't trivial; but it is doable now, which makes it a better investment.
Again, it's up to individual homeowners/builders to decide whether this is a better investment.
On a more personal note, would you have given this guy's warning some thought or maybe heeded it just in case?
Set your phasers on "funky"!
Since people died, they should also be charged with homocide.
Come on, man. Just because Italians are always well groomed and impeccably dressed, doesn't mean they are all gay.
Hi from Italy. In retrospect it wasn't science but a rather effective guess (I don't know how lucky, and if he can actually repeat it with the same precision; it's not my job) based on empiric hints. Now, I think that the authorities did well when they decided NOT to base their actions - or instigate terror - on that "prediction" (it would be absurd: block every activity and move a lot of people for days just for a guess). But it is really irritating to me seeing how this person was rather roughly scolded and sued; it seems he did his best with the tools he had at hand, knowing they are not "established truth", knowing he was risking his reputation; even if he was (or would have been) wrong, it takes lots of courage. Usually, italian official instituctions and italians don't mix well, there's frequently a lot of mistrust. Guess why.
However, I also agree with you that the next line was flamebait, so it was a net -0- mod IMHO.
Grammer Nazis - I mod you "troll" unless you actually add something on-topic. Yes, I know I have mispellings in my sig.
When does one cross the line from "flamebait" to "yes, that is an accurate portayal of what the current governmental policies or the media would report as real.".
You know it's true. C'mon. Seriously. We both know that anything currently announced as "due to global warming" gets far more press coverage and front row reporting than any old boring technical or scientific reasoning.
For example. Imagine its November, 1999. Two articles are written one says "Due to poor management, sloppy software design processes, lack of business requirements, many software packages may experience problems". The other reads "Due to Y2K, computers will fail all over and destroy civilization. Only $1.2 trillion will possibly keep it at bay."
Which one due you think will be the focus of government and media trumpeting?
Of course Y2K and global warming aren't exactly the same thing. Y2K had actual numbers and fixes and proveable test conditions, whereas global warming is...well...what it is.
The end result will pretty much be the same I guess.
Now THIS could be considered flame bait. Please MOD is accodingly. Preferably -10 or below.
I'm a satanic clam.
Here's quote from a USAToday article.
Pezzopane, the provincial president, said residents may have been lulled into complacency because so many smaller quakes had jolted the area, including two or three earlier in the night.
"Considering what happened, a bit more concern, more attention might have saved lives," she said.
National officials insisted no quake can ever be predicted and that no evacuation could have been ordered on the basis of the recent jolts.
"There is no possibility of making any predictions on earthquakes. This is a fact in the world's scientific community," Civil protection chief Guido Bertolaso told reporters
Talk about saving face...
They're not completely wrong - there currently is no scientifically acceptable method of predicting earthquakes that is time-tested, but at the very least, they could give some credit to Giuliani for seemingly predicting this earthquake, and offer him a full apology for calling him an imbecile.
Best "String" Ever!
There's a guy in the Bay Area who claims he can predict earthquakes with high accuracy and offers up the fact that he has predicted every recent large earthquake. But as one scientist commented (borrowing from somewhere, I believe) that, "indeed, he has predicted 150 of the last 8 earthquakes."
Based on what we know so-far, he predicted a destructive quake on March 29. This did not happen. Prediction failed.
But there was another earthquake that day. Big deal - isn't that what "seismically active" means?
Just looking at the current Northern California map I see over 170 quakes listed. And that's only the last 7 days where this predicted event was 9 days before the quake. I'm not surprised there was a "smaller" quake that day. There are usually quite a few every day.
As to the charge of "silenced", I'll wait and see what that really means. If he was ordered to destroy scientific publications with his claims or cease his research discussions it's one thing. If they declined to once-again drive vans with bullhorns around town having falsely reported an imminent quake just a month earlier, it's another thing entirely. It will probably end up being somewhere between those extremes.
Radon emission changes have preceded earthquakes. But they have also "preceded" non-quakes. And quakes have been preceded by the lack of change in radon as well. Hardly a reliable predictor, so far.
One should not lambaste officials without looking at the scientist's track-record. I have yet to see a single item suggesting that he had a serious track-record of predicting with any reasonable level of accuracy the time, place and magnitude of an event as well as "safe" periods.
I think it would have been more responsible to just lay out the facts. There is evidence that certain events we are monitoring (radon, ground-water changes, full/new-moon, ...) tend to precede an earthquake. We feel the risk is higher than normal. Please be sure you are as prepared as possible with the usual recommended supplies of food, water, tools, etc. and consider training if you haven't done-so in the past.
~~~~~~~
"You are not remembered for doing what is expected of you." - Atul Chitnis
I don't recall that the Vatican was in the business of predicting earthquakes.
A more scientific conclusion would have been to use error bars in his prediction; "There is a 95% chance that an earthquake on this date, and a 99% that it will occur within seven days after this date".
Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
Building structures that won't collapse and crush everybody inside isn't trivial; but it is doable now
It was doable 600 years ago.
Just go visit Machu Picchu, and you'll see.
It lays abandoned for half a millennium in a land of frequent earthquakes, and it's walls are still intact.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incan_architecture
factor 966971: 966971
The funny part is, he was *immediately* labeled an imbecile when the earthquake was late.
Oh no - don't tell me the next thing that will happen there is they elect a new government that will make sure the the earthquakes arrive on time
Given the state of the art of earthquake prediction, he was pretty good - probably a bit better than Italian railroad arrival predictions. -)
And grammar.
Just because you disagree with something doesn't make it flamebait. See, the idea here is that you reply with your counterpoint rather than mindlessly silencing people with downmods.
Learn and move on.
Yes, he predicted this earthquake. Being +/- 1 week is pretty decent. But as others have said, it could've been a lucky shot. If you can make multiple predictions like this you'll gain credibility towards future predictions and people will start listening.
I do agree too, he predicted the quake on the 29th. It didn't come. How long are people supposed to stay away? If he'd been 2 weeks off, or a month, would people still be upset at the politicians? Had he made other predictions in the past that proved untrue?
There are too many questions without answers at this point. It could've been a lucky guess.
I just wanted to point out that people are quick to jump to conclusions if it reinforces their reality model.
Giuilani: "Hey guys, earthquake is coming." ... ...
Everyone else: "No it's not, idiot"
Giuilani "Yes it is, look at my research!"
Everyone else: "See, it didn't come. We knew you are an idiot!"
Earthquake: "Sorry, I was held up at the border"
Everyone else: "OH SHI-"
mod parent +1: wry humor with sly historical reference.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
Rev 11:13 And the same hour was there a great earthquake, and the tenth part of the city fell, and in the earthquake were slain of men seven thousand: and the remnant were affrighted, and gave glory to the God of heaven.
They don't give a date, though. Or indeed a clear idea of which city this is: 'the great city, which spiritually is called Sodom and Egypt, where also our Lord was crucified' could be at least three places even before you start considering metaphor.
Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
No they're in the business of predicting 'gnashing of teeth' according to my research.
Dang, you found us out. Alright global warming deniers: we admit it - it was all just a vast global conspiracy, the rest of the world was jealous of your hummers. Everybody was just out to get you.
Except the part where they feel he's a lunatic because it didn't happen on the exact date he suggested. People may have still suffered but he would have at least saved face. Of course, there's also the slim chance that the government would have actually done something intelligent - like make additional disaster recovery preparations for it in advance... I know, I know, crazy talk.
You are using English. Please learn the difference between loose and lose; they're, there, and their; your and you're.
Guess somebody is owed an apology see this http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/04/06/20090406ItalyQuake06-ON.html
This is a critical component to any good disaster movie from the 70s.
- Towering Inferno: Building developer refuses to cancel dedication party after bad wiring is found and fire starts.
- Jaws: Town mayor refuses to close beach after attack from big shark.
Come to think of it, Tommy Lee Jones's and Pierce Brosnan's Volcano movies were the same deal...
He didn't make a point, just voiced a controversial claim regarding an unrelated topic, without any supporting arguments. That contributes nothing to the discussion at hand and attracts flames.
let me tell you as a citizen, i would go to kick that mayor in the face.
Read radical news here
sounds funny, but insightful in reality.
Read radical news here
Yeah, well, it's a lot easier to make something structurally sound if it's not expected to have the same occupancy load that would be required for a modern western city. There weren't nearly as many Incans as there are Italians. Particularly since the former weren't Catholics.
your analogy sucks major tit. and i mean MAJOR.
Read radical news here
The best way to predict the future is to create it. -- Richard Bandler
Given the topic of this article, your sig just got rather scary.
For security, the MD5 hash of this message and sig is 09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0.
So, according to your signature, you're saying he invented a device to cause an earthquake, but didn't take into account a long startup time?
GLaDOS for President 2016! "Well here we are again. It's always such a pleasure." -- GLaDOS, 2011
for, if they had taken them seriously, instead of MORONICALLY shitting him in a court, and did some extra research of their own, they may have concluded that it could be good to evacuate, OR at least take measures. now 100.000 people homeless, there are only 2000 tents.
Read radical news here
le idiot. 100.000 people homeless now, and there are only 2000 tents. you deserve a kick in the face.
Read radical news here
Actually, no, it's got nothing to do with the individual.
If the predictions are close to the mark, and you can get everyone out of the area, or prepare the area well enough that people will not be trapped, wounded or killed, this removes a massive burden on recovery efforts. To sit there and say it's about the individual is just horse shit. If you want to live like that, go out into the wilderness and live on your own with no connection to society at all.
I really hate this idea that the individual overrides the social, it's a very narrow minded view that causes no end of grief. Sure, we would like to believe we're all unique and special, but it's just not true. We're part of a bigger "machine", just cogs. Sure, we can have individual ideas and attitudes, but we aren't here to merely satisfy our own individual wants. If that's the case we'd be solitary creatures.
There might be a connection, although through a third cause. There's evidence (yes, even according to the IPCC) that solar cycles play a part in the global climate. There are also some correlation between solar minima and crust issues (volcanic action, earthquakes etc).
We're currently in what seems to be a very deep solar minimum.
it's in my head
So what you're saying is that the Vatican wrote the Bible! The secret is out!
Actually, the Vatican didn't write the Bible. They did have editorial control however, which is much the same thing.
Man, you really need that seminar!
This does give people in Italy someone and an organisation to be angry at however.
If I was that guy who made the imbecile comment, I'd be getting clear of the area before a load of hot blooded angry Italians and their ... friends ... came for a visit.
I predict that there will be an earthquake some time in the next couple months near your house. Go ahead and pack up your shit and move out for awhile. You aren't? Well why not? I mean just because I don't have a track record, doesn't mean I won't be right.
Same situation here. So the guy got a prediction sort of right (off by a week). Ok that means nothing. You don't start trusting predictive models until they are proven accurate over a period of time. This means correctly predicting when an event happens, and not predicting one when there's not. It has to be good at BOTH things. If you get something that almost always predicts the events, but does do by simply predicting events all the time, it is useless.
One data point isn't proof. In science, we don't prove things true, we demonstrate them to be not false. That is an important distinction. What that means is a single test doesn't prove that you are right beyond any doubt, it means that it shows there is less reason to doubt you are right. As more and more tests are done, there is less and less reason to believe you might be wrong.
So you show me a model that has correctly predicted 100 earthquakes to within a week, with only 2 false positives, and I'll say it is data to hang you hat on. That thing calls quake, you'd better get the fuck out. You show me a model that has correctly predicted 3 quakes to within a week and only 1 false positive, I'll say you've got something interesting but need more research before I'm sold. Show me something that has correctly predicted a single quake with no false positives, I say I need more data points. You show me something that has predicted 1 quake right, and has 100 false positives, I'll say it's shit.
So which is it here? Does the guy have a good track record, or is this his first data point? If it is the first correct prediction then listening to it is just as valid as listening to my prediction.
His problem is that people are just smart enough to go "You can't possibly know exactly when this is going to happen." And it's the truth, he couldn't possibly know the exact date, the science just isn't that good. What one can know is, with a certain degree of probability, that an event could be about to occur. Whether it's an increase in certain gas emissions from a volcano suggesting an eruption, or an increase in smaller earthquakes suggesting pressure build-up at a fault that could lead to an earthquake, you can only speak in probabilities.
It's a tough call for any government. Even where the seismologists are saying "Hey, I think there's something big time bad gonna happen", there's always the possibility that the activity will die down. Sadly, public officials want certainty, but science usually can only deliver statistical likelihoods.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
let me add according to http://www.earthquake.it/ultimi-terremoti.php it's since december that small earthquake are occurring in that zone, and they are still going, so it wasn't a single strike but rather the big one . giuliani predicted a devastating earthquake on 29 th of march in sulmona. the earthquake was yesterday in l'aquila, so one week later and 70 km far away from where giuliani predicted. Also he's not a scientist but a guy who work for infn which is nuclear physic and he's not even graduated. Civil Protection Agency looked to their data and with a pool of geophysics decided that there was not enough evidence to know if a big earthquake would strike and where would strike. they can't evacuate people just on assumptions of someone who already failed to predict that earthquake. however they were on "defcon 1" so when the earthquake striked they were ready to go for help as soon as possible. Yes building were inadequate because people tends to ignore that they live over seismic terrain and they prefer to look for a cheaper house without antiseismic structure so they have some money to enjoy their favourite soccer team on a big plasma screen. guess what they are enjoying now ... but this is their faul or rather a big darwing award for the whole zone.
I really hate this idea that the individual overrides the social, it's a very narrow minded view that causes no end of grief. Sure, we would like to believe we're all unique and special, but it's just not true. We're part of a bigger "machine", just cogs. Sure, we can have individual ideas and attitudes, but we aren't here to merely satisfy our own individual wants. If that's the case we'd be solitary creatures.
The problem with this that has cropped up again and again throughout history is that when humans attempt to place the society's needs over the individual as an ethos of governance, individual ideas and attitudes are, and must be, suppressed.
The more emphasis placed on society's wants and needs over the individual, the more thorough and brutal the repression, indeed oppression, of individual ideas and attitudes. Especially when it comes to criticism of the society's leaders and their laws.
I really hate this idea that society outweighs the individual. It's been proven repeatedly throughout history up to the present day that it causes no end of grief including genocide, wars of aggression, and brutal oppression.
A healthy society and its' governance should impact as little as possible on individual freedoms, ideas, and attitudes.
"That government is best that governs least."-Thomas Paine
Sadly, we have forgotten Thomas Paine and are the worse for it.
Strat
Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
Oh no - don't tell me the next thing that will happen there is they elect a new government that will make sure the the earthquakes arrive on time
Next thing you know people will be repeating the anti-fascist quote that, "Mussolini made the earthquakes arrive on time."
Type "radon earthquake" into google.
Earthquakes are never late!
where the good guy find proofs an imminent disaster but nobody listen to him. That area was under an "earthquake storm" since december. http://tinyurl.com/cn47cf so putting him in the right context you can see he's predictions were quite inaccurate. Also, did he used official channels to publish his data? no, he just phoned sulmona mayor and told him his city would have been erased on 29th march which... didn't happen.
If we all just disappeared today (like the rapture believers say will happen I suppose), a thousand years from now those ruins might still be there, along with the ancient Greek and Egyptian ruins as well. But New York City will be flat.
It has to do with the integrity of the materials: concrete, rebar and wood versus solid stone and mortar. Granted, we were driven towards modern architectural methods in part because of the need to cram more people into a single square meter of real estate, but the direct reason for those ancient buildings' strength is the fact that they were built from solid stone blocks.
And you know that he did not used them, because?
Looks like you're the one that failed English too!
Why we need gov to gurantee our life? Why we are not allowed to make our own decision on our life? Why we can not get the information to make these decisions? Why the gov say is always correct?
I do not see any reason we share the same idea on the plannet. Why giving out a false prediction is crime? We should not make the news a trust worthy source of information, that is against the nature against the society. We need to teach our citizen that all news could be false.
We need responsible citizen not ants.
Let's just say this: you have no idea.
The next time he makes a prediction locally, regardless of government acceptance or official response, people will listen. This isn't a good situation for him at all. Now if he makes a prediction he is bearing all the liability for problems that may occur (economic losses, panic, etc) if he is wrong. The best case is for the government to recognize that, although radon isn't a universal predictor of earthquake activity, perhaps it IS an indicator in that particular region. Thus if he sees the same behavior that preceded this last quake, the government, in an official capacity, can take proper measures. I don't think having everyone evacuate is a reasonable response, because the time frames are too nebulous. Those living in older residences, prone to extensive earthquake damage, could perhaps stay with friends or family temporarily. That is the type of reasonable recommendation a government can make, opposed to the automatic panic and exodus his next prediction will cause.
So the real question is has he taken the government's reaction as a personal slight, thus prompting him to use his new-found influence and fame next time around to operate above the government? This does present an interesting moral situation, especially due to the extensive negative repercussion he could face next time around if he is wrong.
Better known as 318230.
"That government is best that governs least."-Thomas Paine
Sadly, we have forgotten Thomas Paine and are the worse for it.
Yes, but Paine didn't have to deal with toxic mortgage assets and investor pyramid schemes.
Italian men are vain, arrogant, posturing, bully control freaks (OCD), which is why they get laid so much and is the only reason I could find that there are 2 to 3 times as many slurs against italians than any other nationality.
Everyone else: "OH SHI-"
So it wasn't an earthquake at all!! He just divided by zero in his prediction.
The guy method DID confirm other earthquakes in the past , (2001, Turkey one, 2002 another italian one etc. read the full history in italian) his method based on radon detections does give a quite good approximation, given that he did it as a personal side project etc. I do say that one week is very good approx. You can put major critical activities on hold for couple of weeks, the game will surely worth the candle. Italy needs to be forced into legality by EU. For its own good.
Towns and even major city streets get shut down just to shoot a movie let alone risk of a catastrophe.
Only if he's an import. A true 'merkin would have been several hundred miles north.
"City hall" in German is "Rathaus" Kinda explains a few things......
Actually, he invented it a very long time ago. It's called "Windows". He handed it off to Bill Gates, who proceeded to make millions marketing it before handing it off to that idiot Ballmer. I have no clue on how Ballmer plans to react to the imminent catastrophe; neither does he.
$ make available
True, he was born 17 years after the South Sea Bubble had its dramatic collapse...
Nor did he have modern China as an example.
$ make available
Good thing it's only an off-topic post on a tech forum.
I'm genuinely interested in hearing where I'm wrong, since I'd rather not repeat the mistake. So if anyone cares to make a legitimate criticism, I will read and absorb it.
I apologize if I somehow insulted any architects.
In fairness, if he hadn't've called his earthquake prediction machines "cassandra", it might've been taken more seriously.
The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
eventually? so he spread other false alarms right? or you criticize him being off by a whole week, huh? he really an amateur. As opposed to your perfectly timed trolling.
---- MISSING MISCELLANEOUS DATA SEGMENT --- [sigdash] trolololol
Even if you can't predict earthquakes with enough precision to move populations out of risk areas, you still can raise emergency preparation. A lot of damage can be prevented if you can cut power and gas lines quickly enough and have emergency personnel from nearby locations on heightened alert and hospitals fully supplied for disasters. Many of those supplies have lng shelf lives and can be taken from emergency to emergency.
http://www.dieblinkenlights.com
In other news many still deny global warming despite what these so-called 'scientists' are telling us.
Sigh.
Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself. -- Leo Tolstoy
Here is another predictive system:
If somebody makes a barely relevent post with libertarian leanings, 5 mod points will occur.
So it's OK if someone poisons your water by pouring toxic waste into the river (to save a few bucks), thereby forcing the entire populace to import their water / install expensive systems to clean it up (thousands of people multiplied by much more than you saved) ???
So it's OK if you hire armed gun-men and snipers (because you have the money) to dominate a good fishing river and place gill-nets across the river to catch 100% of the fish for personal profit even if it destroys that resource forever ???
So it's OK if your burn down the next 10 houses around you because you didn't want to have trash handled properly and you decided to put up a home-built incinerator that let fly-ash go uncontrolled.... too bad that they didn't leave their yard as bare dirt and chop down their trees for your convenience ???
Sorry, but the only 'repression' here is _NOT_ having (at least some) areas where society outweighs the individual. I can't believe your at +5 for that drivel.
Well to be fair they called him imbecile not idiot. You cretin.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/04/06/italy.quake/index.html
Well, you should believe the scientists when they say something based on facts
Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
Oh, please. Land sales fraud goes right back at least as far as the first American colonies, with some colonists paying excessive fees to go to a new land of milk and honey. The Israelites probably spent that 40 years in the desert looking for the land of milk and honey because that's what the real estate agent promised them, and it took them 40 years to find a place nice enough to be worth invading instead. (The Bible and Talmud are pretty clear, they were "given" the promised land the same way the colonists were "given" America" by taking it away from the people living there.)
"That government is best that governs least."-Thomas Paine
Sadly, we have forgotten Thomas Paine and are the worse for it.
Yes, but Paine didn't have to deal with toxic mortgage assets and investor pyramid schemes
And if the government wasn't spening north of $40,000 per family needlessly bailing out these buffoons, they simply would have gone bankrupt, and we'd be in no worse economic condition than we are today, except we'd be $40,000 less in debt!
Or do you honestly believe that the way to get out of a crisis caused by being too far in debt is to put every family another $40,000 in debt? And that's just the number so far - the congress is nowhere near done handing money to their friends.
Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
Translated: "I am not a douchebag, insensitive American"
I listen to both RIAA and non-RIAA stuff if I like the music, tangential business/politics nonwithstanding.
I really hate this idea that society outweighs the individual.
So it's OK if someone poisons your water by pouring toxic waste into the river (to save a few bucks), thereby forcing the entire populace to import their water / install expensive systems to clean it up (thousands of people multiplied by much more than you saved) ???
So it's OK if you hire armed gun-men and snipers (because you have the money) to dominate a good fishing river and place gill-nets across the river to catch 100% of the fish for personal profit even if it destroys that resource forever ???
So it's OK if your burn down the next 10 houses around you because you didn't want to have trash handled properly and you decided to put up a home-built incinerator that let fly-ash go uncontrolled.... too bad that they didn't leave their yard as bare dirt and chop down their trees for your convenience ???
Sorry, but the only 'repression' here is _NOT_ having (at least some) areas where society outweighs the individual. I can't believe your at +5 for that drivel.
Look, nobody is saying there doesn't need to be rules. Those rules however need to be the absolute minimum needed for society to function in order for individuals to have freedom.
When a society gets to the point where there are so many laws, rules, regulations, codes, etc etc, on and on, to the point where no human can possibly live a normal life without being in violation of something, usually multiple-somethings, or when a government punishes its' citizens for voicing dissent, or uses its' punitive powers (criminal, financial, or otherwise) to do social engineering in an attempt to change peoples' beliefs and behaviors to what *it* considers "acceptable", then that's much, much too far and that government has far, far too much power.
That was the whole premise for the structure of the US government originally. Just enough short of anarchy to maintain order and a functioning nation, nothing more. This is what Thomas Paine meant with that quote in my previous post. *That* is what the US has forgotten.
That is why we in the US have been steadily losing our freedoms for a long time. That is 95% (or more) of the reason for the troubles in the US we see today. That is why it will only get worse as time goes on unless there are radical changes in how the government works and how & what the citizens think about and expect from government.
The more a government can provide, the more it can take away. The more it protects, the more it can destroy. It is up to the people. They have been conditioned and dumbed-down, their abilities for independent critical thinking dulled, so as to expect all things from government so therefor government now has the power to take all things away.
The more power a government is given to do "good things", the more power it has to do bad. This is not not right-left, liberal-conservative, or any other political credo. It's just the way governments work because they are ultimately run by flawed, imperfect people.
Strat
Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
This is not not right-left...
Oops. I guess I got a little "two not-ty" there! :P
Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/4/20090406/twl-italie-seisme-expert-bd5ae06_2.html
[[...
Il y a environ un mois, des camionnettes équipées de haut-parleurs avaient sillonné L'Aquila, ville de 68.000 habitants à 100 km à l'est de Rome, en demandant aux résidents d'évacuer leur logement.
Cette mesure avait provoqué la colère du maire de la cité et une plainte avait été déposée auprès de la police pour "diffusion d'informations alarmistes". Gioacchino Giuliani avait été contraint de retirer de son site internet les résultats de ses recherches.
"Il y a maintenant des gens qui devraient me faire des excuses et auront sur la conscience ce qui s'est passé", a déclaré Giuliani.
Les premières secousses telluriques avaient été ressenties à la mi-janvier dans la cité médiévale et elles avaient continué à se produire à intervalles réguliers.
La protection civile italienne avait organisé le 31 mars à L'Aquila une réunion de la commission des risques majeurs, groupe de scientifiques spécialisés dans les catastrophes naturelles, afin de rassurer la population. ...]]
Translation:
[[...
Approximately a month ago, vans equipped with loudspeakers were driven through L'Aquila, town of 68.000 inhabitants, located 100 km East from Rome, asking the residents to evacuate their housing. This measurement had caused the anger of the mayor of the city and a complaint had been lodged with the police force for "alarmist broadcasting". Gioacchino Giuliani had been constrained to withdraw from its Internet site the results of its research.
" There are now people who should make me excuses and will have on the conscience what has happened" , Giuliani declared. The first earth tremors had been felt in mid-January in the medieval city and they had continued to occur with regular intervals.
Italian civil protection had organized on March 31 in L'Aquila a meeting of the commission of the major risks, groups scientists specialized in the natural disasters, in order to reassure the population. ...]]
Mussolini made the earthquakes arrive on thyme
Fixed that for you.
http://xkcd.com/282/
My webcomic
"When does one cross the line from "flamebait" to "yes, that is an accurate portayal of what the current governmental policies or the media would report as real."."
During election season.
The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
"even before you start considering metaphor"
We're talking about the vatican here. The bible. Metaphor. *lol*
The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
I think New York wouldn't be flat, but that it'd be pretty darn close. Lots of low mounds (hillocks?) covered in forest where 'scrapers used to be.
Maybe we could agree that both theories have their own share of credibility?
After all, modern political theory tends to be heavily concerned with reconciling the needs of the individual with the "greater good" of society.
Humans can indeed be fiercely individualistic, though you could just as easily argue that we're inherently social creatures under certain circumstances. (You'd also be daft to argue that the overall condition of society doesn't affect the individual -- even if you're a subsistence farmer living alone in the wilderness)
I would argue that, by historic standards, both the US and Europe are far better off now than they have ever been, both in terms of personal liberties, as well as the general health of society as a whole.
Sure, we pay a lot of taxes. However, our post-tax income is still pretty darn high, in terms of the purchasing power that it carries. Similarly, we do receive tangible benefits from those taxes (even though you might argue that those benefits might not be a good value for the money)
We can't carry guns, but have powerful mechanisms for resolving personal conflicts in a peaceful manner. If the government is corrupt, 20th Century history contains numerous examples of peaceful revolutions taking place under non-democratic governments (India, and the fall of the USSR most notably come to mind)
Are there improvements to be made? Sure!
Is the answer to swing far to the left, or far to the right? Probably not. It's been tried repeatedly on both ends of the spectrum, and has never been particularly successful.*
*I'm going to ignore ancient Sparta for the sake of this discussion. Although it makes a great case study, it's a single data point, and a bit of a paradoxical one at that.
-- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
That candidate could run on a "hope and change" platform.
There is, at the moment, no way to accurately predict an earthquake. This is NOT correct. What is correct is this "There is, at the moment, no way to accurately predict an earthquake WITHIN THE LIMITS NEEDED FOR A SOCIETY TO COST EFFECTIVLY REACT TO A PREDICTION".
Put more simply, I can 100% accurately predict that an earthquake is going to hit. Give or take a hundred years. Tokyo for instance WILL be struck with in the next millenium.
That however is going to be a bit to wide a margin for an evacuation. Sure, you could argue that people shouldn't live in danger zones, but so much of the world is. We could, if we had the will, move ourselves. Make for instance the areas under sea level in Holland farmland and go and live on the high areas (well, above sea level anyway) that are currently farm land. We could, but who would want to? Live out in the untamed wilderness of Gelderland and move out of the big city metropolis of Amsterdam (pop > 750.000).
This guy claims to have predicted an earthquake. He didn't. Not with enough accuracy anyway. You can't just evacuate a city for a week. As harsh as it may sound, the few people who died this time just ain't worth the cost. Oh sure, if you say that you will be denounced as a cold and heartless person but JUST you try and raise the taxes to pay for evactuations of a couple of weeks around every disaster warning. Then you will see just how willing the average voter is to pay for saving lives.
What would be far more sensible is indeed to take the long view, but rather then evacuate, simply build better buildings. If you know an earthquake is likely in the next 100 years, build buildings that can withstand them and reinforce the ones you got. That works. Reliably and you know what? Better buildings are good even if the ground isn't shaking as they won't just collapse with a gas explosion or because of tunneling.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
You changed the subject by reconciling the topic from an absolute solution to a more tempered idea.
That was my point.
Your original post did not give any room for discussion. I will debate the 'degree' of societal enforcement any-day and any-time.
You changed the subject by reconciling the topic from an absolute solution to a more tempered idea.
That was my point.
If you choose to take it that way. I simply assumed that there was an understanding that *some* basic rules are necessary to any civilized interaction. I should know better though, you're correct. This *is* Slashdot, after all.
Strat
Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
True, since the anti-terrorism and World Domin... Doma... Dami... World Rule! Platform seems to have finally gone out of style. ;P
Nope.
You are talking about the Government man. The Big Boys.
Politicians and Governments don't apologize: EVER.
In fact i would not be surprised if the Government now charged him with involuntary slaughter for NOT bringing the early warning notice to the Government's attention.
Yes, i know this is completelty asinine, and the logic in it will assplode your head, but that is how Governments' react when faced with potential truth and the fact that they were wrong.
In fact, if this guy were in USA, he would be investigated by the Secret Service, FBI and local OSHA branch for various violations:
a) Violating the state secrets act, which was applied retroactively to panic warnings.
b) Professional misconduct by not following "rules" and "procedure" to warn the Government through proper channels and instead opting for creating sensations on a public media unauthorisedly and illegally.
c) Creating panic with a view to spreading eco-terrorism (this one is from the local council and county)
d) Civil Disobedience of not obeying government rules governing state employees.
e) Spreading falsehoods (completely discounting the fact that he was right), with a view to creating panic in public and war-profiteering.
f) Declared "person of interest" by the FBI and the local Sherriff for "causing" earthquakes by predicting them.
Hell, if i were District Attorney, i would make more charges against this professor than this list, and make them stick.
And i would plead with the judge to send him to prison for 10 years at least.
After all, if i fail AND i apologize to this professor, the Governer and Mayor is liable to be sued for deliberate manslaughter and be forced to resign...Is that what the people want at this hour of agony???
Easy way is to shut this guy down completely. (Just like they sued and sentenced the college boy who outbid oil companies in Utah).
"Doing what i can, with what i have." ~ Burt Gummer
It's really bothering me. This guy hadn't posted in two years, then he pops in and tells me I'm wrong about something, but not what I was wrong about or why I was wrong.
I dunno, I thought rebar rusts? And pyramids have a larger foundation than skyscrapers?
it's OK if someone poisons your water by pouring toxic waste into the river
it's OK to dominate a good fishing river
it's OK if your burn down the next 10 houses around you
Sorry, but the only 'repression' here is _NOT_ having (at least some) areas where society outweighs the individual. I can't believe your at +5 for that drivel.
The key thing you're missing is that individuals in society are equal. Your hypothetical individual who has more rights than everyone else should not have those extra rights. When you maximize the rights for all individuals, you will have a healthy society.
That's how scientific progress works. The real geniuses are usually thought of as imbeciles.
Of course, the imbeciles are also thought of as imbeciles, and it's often hard to differentiate the two. :3
I have visited Machu Pichu and it's still in a fairly ruinous condition really so they didn't get everything exactly right. The method they used is no secret, simply using randomly shaped interlocking blocks of stone rather than regular courses helps the structure lock together in earthquakes and keep it standing and we could do the same thing today but it would probably quite labour intensive and expensive and not as effective as other cheaper methods using re-enforced concrete.
Also Machu Pichu is not all that old, probably no where near as old as the the medieval town L'Aquila in Italy is.
In this case, the earthquake was just being politely late...
I thought that adding some local view would add some colour, so here's my 2âc
There's been some back and forth on the national papers about this earthquake prediction, liberally mixed with rumors about stray dogs wailing, etc etc. I fully expect this to continue, since basic scientific method is not the order of the day here.
As much as I think that further research by the guy in question will be valuable, the history of earthquake prediction has been rather dismal, insofar as many times over, after a quake, it's been relatively easy to find some scientist having predicted it, while the actual "before the fact " experience has materially changed in the ability to foresee what ( we do have seismic maps, etc.), but not the when.
"If a boss demands loyalty, give him integrity. But if he demands integrity, give him loyalty." (John Boyd, 1927-1997)
If the sole use of an account in two years is to post an ad hominem objection sans any supporting evidence, then unless the account was owned by some beloved friend whose absence and health I was concerned for, I totally wouldn't worry about it.
Back on point: Yes, rebar rusts. Water penetrates the concrete, reaching the iron/steel bars inside, which rust. It doesn't help that modern concrete tends to have a relatively high water content. The rusting causes expansion which cracks the (already failing) concrete around it. End result: building collapse.
Pyramids do have larger foundations; they need them as they lack the reinforcing materials used in skyscrapers. It will be interesting to see what megastructures humanity builds using 21st century materials.
No they aren't. Some are bigger, some are smaller. Some are smart, and some are stupid.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
I heard the inteview with this alleged "scientist" and he's a total lunatic
he's not even a scientist: he calls himself a "technician" that needs support from scientits to bring forward his researches
the area is subject to continuos minor quakes since months and he's predicting quakes every other day
If the government is corrupt, 20th Century history contains numerous examples of peaceful revolutions taking place under non-democratic governments (India, and the fall of the USSR most notably come to mind)
I'm not really a general advocate of armed revolt or anything (certainly not in democratic western nations), but historically the examples you cite are more exceptions than the rule.
In both cases the revolts were only effective because those in power chose to lay down their authority peacefully. Essentially the oppressed appealed to the oppressors and the oppressors said "ok, you have a point." There are far more examples of tyrranical rulers where those in charge simply wiped out the protestors, or where they were so clearly interested in only their own power that the people never bothered to stage a mass demonstration in the first place. Could you see something like this working in half of the Middle East or in a place like North Korea? It already failed once in China - I'd think that as China becomes more influenced by Western culture it might be more likely to actually work there now or in the future.
Don't get me wrong - peaceful resistance does work sometimes. I suspect that it would have eventually worked in the formation of the US since the English Parliament was at least sympathetic to their aims. Even nations that you think would be basically peaceful have at times in history become very suppressive and warlike. Just look at WWI - half of Europe was just looking for an excuse to go to war and one guy getting shot in a very minor country was enough of a pretense to end up getting 37 million people killed.
On the other hand, most armed revolts only succeed when those in charge willingly lay down their arms, or if some external power intervenes. It wasn't like the Continental Army actually destroyed the British's ability to make war - if anything the US campaign was more of a series of defeats, but the cost to the British was enough to make them have to keep thinking twice about the issues until they gave in. The intervention of the French had a huge impact as well.
The Inca designed their buildings with sloping walls and trapezoidal windows and doors - an early 'earthquake proof' design.
Apparently the random interlocking of stones was more to do with them a) showing their prowess at stoneworking and b) a natural consequence of working huge lumps of stone (why bother carving them into brick shapes). It's not the best picture but you can see an example here.
A great example of this type of construction is in Cusco. The Spanish built their own building over an Inca temple (I think it was the temple of moon, sun and stars) which they failed to tear down as they had done with most others. Years later there was a huge earthquake and the Spanish building collapsed to reveal the Inca temple which only suffered a few minor cracks.
That's a fine beginning, and I don't think there are many people who disagree with it.
The problem is when you take it too far. Then you get much stranger laws, such as "protecting the institution of marriage", making it illegal to have homosexual sex, prohibition, criminalization of victimless crimes, and calls for anybody acting "suspiciously" to be reported.
Those things don't really favor society. It doesn't benefit society as a whole when laws tell you to look at an amateur chemist as a new unabomber in the making. It does however benefit some paranoid politician who will get credit for passing laws that are completely counterproductive to society.
And that's the real problem. Too far down that road it's not longer really for society's benefit. It's all full things done for the carreer of politicians under the guise of benefit for the society. And unfortunately many of the society's members can't look far ahead enough to see what they're getting into.
Building structures that won't collapse and crush everybody inside isn't trivial; but it is doable now
It was doable 600 years ago. Just go visit Machu Picchu, and you'll see. It lays abandoned for half a millennium in a land of frequent earthquakes, and it's walls are still intact.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incan_architecture
I think I agree, but "it is walls are still intact" doesn't make any sense.
Only his tendency toward a dazed stupor prevented him from screaming aloud.
Now, let me preface this by saying to the OP that considering the levels of arrogance, I think we are due for another worldwide level genocide. I don't want it to happen, but I think it likely. Genocide is a bad thing.
Now, to the point of the post above: Actually, I think that you are still only scratching the surface.
Protecting the institution of marriage *does* make sense for protecting society and maximizing the rights of all involved (including the children). Without it, you will have murder -- both through jealousy and abortion -- needless confusion of property ownership, children growing up unraised, and therefore committing all sorts of crimes due to their neglect, and so on.
Like you, I just don't think that protecting the institution of marriage necessarily works from the governmental standpoint.
In the same way, I'd say that homosexuality *does* undermine a stable society. But no, the Taliban's way of dealing with accused homosexuals is *not* a good way of addressing those needs.
What is a good way? I'm not sure. In the end, if you have people who are determined that their wills, their honor, their pride (and so on) are more important than good for others (or others' rights), then eventually you are going to have a breakdown of society. That breakdown can and will eventually lead to the arrogance and theft and murder and wars and genocide that develops every 50-100 years or so.
If you can convince people to conquer in themselves the desire to be gods over their neighbors, then you can have peace. You will have peace in no other way. (Of course, there is the idiot's way of doing this. All he really needs to do is to become a god over his neighbors and *force* them not to... aaahh.)
Correct Horse Battery Staple: 72 bits of entropy. Enter "Correct H" into google. When it generates the phrase, that's
it took them 40 years to find a place nice enough to be worth invading instead.
Worth invading? They spent 40 years wandering around in the desert and finally picked the one spot in the whole middle east that doesn't have any oil.
Actually he predicted the earthquake to happen in Sulmona, some 50km away. So, if people had actually evacuated, they could well have been in L'Aquila a week later.
Of course their buildings were not 100% rock.
The roof, windows, everything else, was from wood and other materials that could deteriorate, but be easily replaced. That's why it looks ruinous, but one can see most of the structure is intact.
From the link in my previous post:
Usually the walls of Incan buildings were slightly inclined inside and the corners were rounded. This, in combination with masonry thoroughness, led Incan buildings to have a peerless seismic resistance thanks to high static and dynamic steadiness, absence of resonant frequencies and stress concentration points. During an earthquake with a small or moderate magnitude, masonry was stable, and during a strong earthquake stone blocks were âoe dancing â near their normal positions and lay down exactly in right order after an earthquake.
There are even canals that ran beneath the city, in a somewhat sophisticated water and sewage system, part of it still works (you can see water flowing in one of these canals).
factor 966971: 966971
It's the old saying "A stopped clock is right, twice a day".
The radon method, last I heard/read, is not reliable/accurate for determining earthquakes. It can has too-frequent occurrences of false positives and false negatives.
That and his method of going around "warning" people was pretty damn idiotic.
In your example: A man, drives down the street, in a car! He's following the laws (not speeding, etc).
Officer: "That man's driving a car! He'll run over and kill someone!", officer drives over to restrain the man. He gets out of the police car and goes over to the other car. The man shows his license and insurance papers, they are valid.
Bystanders: Blocking officer. "Hey, he's got a license" "Plenty of people who drive don't run over others!" "He isn't even driving recklessly, you overreacting spaz?"
Three days later, the man accidentally runs over and kills someone.
In that situation, would I feel sorry for the cop, or think those that stopped him were wrong? No. The cop didn't provide any good evidence (lots of people own drive and don't use kill others in the process), and he went about the situation in a horribly wrong manner.
Self proclaimed typo king, and inventor of the bear destroying coffee table (patent not pending).
Also, only the finest buildings were that way.
Most common people had their walls were made from more irregular, "raw" stones, put together with adobe mortar.
factor 966971: 966971
Except, to my knowledge of this method, he screwed up and picked up rabbit pheromones instead. Chances are, there will be wolves nearby to eat them, but it's not always the case. Often the detector will go off and no wolves will be present, often it will remain silent, while the wolves are gnawing on your bones next to the wonderful detector.
Self proclaimed typo king, and inventor of the bear destroying coffee table (patent not pending).
What is left out of this story (and most others on the Internet) is a key part of this guy's prediction methodology: the phases of Venus http://www.nydailynews.com/news/us_world/2009/04/06/2009-04-06_italian_scientist_warned_of_deadly_laqui-1.html .
I could buy emissions of radon gas providing insight into the timing of earthquakes, but I have trouble understanding how the phases of Venus have anything to do with when an earthquake will occur.
It seems like most of the news reports on it have the same problem, so to keep the story an "OMG, this guy predicted it and the evil bureaucrats covered it up," they left that part out.
The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
The funny part is, he was *immediately* labeled an imbecile when the earthquake was late.
And everytime some girl is late there is a guy who feels like an imbecile too! That's gotta mean that girls = earthquakes...maybe she was right when she said "I'm gonna rock your world"
I do not support "The Man". I also do not support your irrational stupidity
Even Nostrodamous will get a prediction right. Make enough and you can be a prophet too.
The best way for this scientist to prove himself is to let people study his work and if they can use it as a model to predict earthquakes (even if they are a week off, which implies they can make an adjustment) then way to go. The only way for us to ever accurately predict earthquakes is to try, try and try again. Like all science there are a lot of failures before that crucial success.
Let's not dismiss the possibility that we may one day be able to predict earthquakes. Obviously if we don't make attempts we will never predict them so let's make attempts I say.
I do not support "The Man". I also do not support your irrational stupidity
...when humans attempt to place the society's needs over the individual as an ethos of governance, individual ideas and attitudes are, and must be, suppressed.
A society is, by definition, composed of individuals. Anything done for the good of society is, therefore, done for the good of individuals.
Yeah, well, it's a lot easier to make something structurally sound if it's not expected to have the same occupancy load that would be required for a modern western city. There weren't nearly as many Incans as there are Italians. Particularly since the former weren't Catholics.
This might be funny if it were even close to being true. However, despite their being predominantly Catholic in name, Italians are not in fact Catholic regarding this practice. They are among the heaviest users of artificial birth control in the world, and are not reproducing themselves fast enough to maintain current population levels (around 1.1 births per woman according to the UN [PDF]).
Only immigration is keeping the Italian population stable, and this is true for most of Western Europe as well.
I got more rhymes than Jamaica got Mangoes.
Regardless of what your tea leaves say, he was only a week off
You only need 365 predictions per year to hit the exact date. Would the correct one be a genius or just lucky?
A 1 week margin means a prediction covers 7 days on both sides. That's 15 days. You can cover a full year that way with 24 people making one prediction each.
Which is probably a smaller number of people than there are earthquake researchers in Italy.
I lost my sig.
Cognizant of the failings of rusting rebar, engineers have devised alternatives to the usual unfinished tempered steel rebar, including stainless steel and new polymer fiber possibilities. More here. Though more expensive, using these other options can improve the lifetime of the structure by avoiding the deterioration in the surrounding concrete caused by expanding rust.
Cheers,
"What in the name of Fats Waller is that?"
"A four-foot prune."
You forget the biggest reason: specialization. Individuals can't be experts in everything, and there are far too many subtle things to cheat on that even an expert might not notice. These things can cause disproportionate harm down the road. Rules are one way to try to avoid having people cheated on something in which they aren't expert. Look where trusting in too loosely policed financial experts got us.
It's not always The Government making these rules. One example is the Underwriter's Laboratories. The UL was started by insurance companies seeking to reduce the damages they paid thanks to products with obvious defects. Would a manufacturer knowingly choose an option that was far more dangerous, if it saved them a few pennies up front? Especially if the consequences wouldn't show up for some years, and if they do, could probably be blamed on the buyers? Some would! A gas appliance could do all kinds of nasty things if poorly designed. Might shoot flames out and ignite the house. Might leak gas or combustion byproducts and poison and suffocate everyone inside. And there are all kinds of rules concerning electrical appliances, so they don't spontaneously short out and start a fire.
And buildings? Tons of codes so that when the contractors skimp, they're in trouble. Have to have codes and professional building inspectors. Otherwise, the builders would cheat every time, and we'd all end up with housing that looks great at first but which falls right down in the first windstorm or earthquake. Or falls down all by itself in 10 years thanks to poor foundations. Or in 10 years the wiring gives out and starts a fire. And then they get to sell the victims another cheap building!
I don't want manufacturers making decisions like that. Freedom to design and manufacture product any way they want, so long as it doesn't involve hazards the public would not have knowingly chosen. (We know cars are dangerous, but that we go into with eyes open, for the most part.) Manufacturers are inherently biased towards their bottom line, as they should be, but that often doesn't correlate with my bottom line. Too many would save themselves a few pennies doing things people would not accept but will not be able to see until it is too late. If nothing reins in the cheaters, the rest would feel compelled to do the same things, to stay "competitive". The smarter manufacturers want rules and enforcement too. Look at the ridiculous irresponsibility shown by those trailer home manufacturers, in selling formaldehyde tainted trailers. They hurt customers, and ultimately themselves. They gave the entire manufactured housing industry a black eye. Very unfair to the responsible members.
Intellectual Property is a monopolistic, selfish, and defective concept. It is "tyranny over the mind of man"
So it's OK if someone poisons your water by pouring toxic waste into the river (to save a few bucks), thereby forcing the entire populace to import their water / install expensive systems to clean it up (thousands of people multiplied by much more than you saved) ???
So it's OK if you hire armed gun-men and snipers (because you have the money) to dominate a good fishing river and place gill-nets across the river to catch 100% of the fish for personal profit even if it destroys that resource forever ???
So it's OK if your burn down the next 10 houses around you because you didn't want to have trash handled properly and you decided to put up a home-built incinerator that let fly-ash go uncontrolled.... too bad that they didn't leave their yard as bare dirt and chop down their trees for your convenience ???
Sorry, but the only 'repression' here is _NOT_ having (at least some) areas where society outweighs the individual. I can't believe your at +5 for that drivel.
All of those scenarios can be categorized as an offense against individuals, not society as a whole. In fact, those scenarios might be beneficial for society AS A WHOLE, despite the inconvenience and suffering they might cause for a limited set of individuals, and as such, in a system that only protects society as a whole, they might even be advocated by the system.
That's the problem with prioritizing societal concerns over individual ones. If you protect the rights of individuals EQUALLY and FAIRLY, society as a whole will be fine. When you place the ambiguous face of "society" as the most important thing to protect, you get totalitarian rule with no regard to human rights and freedom. Things like freedom of speech and movement become restricted "for the greater good." And, since that greater good has a face that can't be identified, it's easy for those in power to claim how it is being violated by whatever they choose to restrict. As the GP pointed out, history proves time and again that they will and they do.
Hum, no. The best way for him to prove he is correct is making another prediction and being right (or 2 others if people aren't still conviced). It shouldn't matter if he's using a complex mathematical model or a crystal ball.
Rethinking email
This might be funny if it were even close to being true.
Hmm. Naw, it's still funny. It must just be you. Maybe it's the pedantry. Yeah. Definitely the pedantry.
You have a very good point.
A few years ago, I started a hobby/curiousity about abandoned Railway stations in the UK, that was piqued by the knowledge of "Ghost Stations" on the London Underground, from this site:
http://www.abandonedstations.org.uk/
After exhausting the Underground stations, I started looking at the National Railway stations, especially ones which were closed during the Beeching act in the 1960s.
(intresting site for those intrested: http://www.disused-stations.org.uk/)
What was really apparent that even those stations closed "recently", but the site left in situ, the site was very quickly reclaimed by nature. The most remarkable evidence is the Great Central Mainline which was largely closed and abandoned during Beeching. despite being a large mainline, now, some parts are VERY hard to find. Take Rugby Central Station, it has virtually dissappeared to nature.
Have a nice day!
So anyway - I'm sorry. I didn't mean to flame you. I did actually start a fairly indepth reply as to the various merits of different construction materials, then decided it was all to long and (I thought - obvious), so I deleted it all and wrote that post instead in a fit of frustration.
Being really brief: There seems to be this mystical property applied to anything old and rustic, that it must magically be better than anything we do now. I hate that. I hate it because I've lived in enough places to know that plenty of 'old' things are complete shit heaps, and although there have been very clever things done in the past - really clever given the limits of technology - there are positively amazing things being done now. We truly live in a golden age, one that doesn't have any guarantee of survival into the future despite our optimism, and I think credit should be give to the talented people creating these wonders around us TODAY too.
Stone structure of ancient times don't fair particularly well in earthquakes. There are amazing records of destruction due to earthquakes all through civilization's history. Some structure DO survive - but only because they were intended to survive, or lucky.
It's exactly the same today. Plenty of buildings will survive - given appropriate care and attention (or luck). Just the same as 'old' stone buildings. Old stone buildings don't magically repair themselves, or magically keep water out due to deterioration - AND YES, they do deteriorate.
Other modern buildings will survive because they were designed that way. Some of these buildings are made out of steel, timber, glass and even more exotic materials. They are detailed and specified in a way that ensure this. Building and material technology is fairly sophisticated (in a 'robust' way) the weathering properties and details for durability are fairly well know.
There's ton's more to say, but you see where this is going. Give the modern world a chance!
Hope you get this, and can be bothered to read it. Fell free to email me at misery.guts@gmail.com if you want to chat more.
Cheers, a.