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Switching To Solar Power, One Year Later

ThinSkin writes "Slashdot readers may recall Loyd Case's series of articles illustrating his experiences after switching to solar power for his family home. Loyd shared his one month update, a six month update, and now finally concludes his series after one year of solar power. Despite the $38,000 initial cost for the setup, Loyd is very optimistic after a $3,000 savings in one year, meaning that in about 12 years he will break even — though he suspects ten years is a better estimate considering other factors. Other reasons such as feeling 'green,' increasing the property value of his house, and the 'spousal acceptance factor' all support Loyd's decision on why he'd do it all over again if he had to." The article is spread annoyingly over multiple pages, like everything at the site, and the print version omits the graphs.

541 comments

  1. Return on investment by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Three thousand dollar savings per year on a 38000 investment is a 7.8 percent rate of return on investment-- not bad, as long as the investment itself dosn't depreciate in value.

    ROE is a much better way of calculating economics than "payback time," by the way

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    1. Re:Return on investment by dk90406 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Assuming the man had the money in his pocket to start with. If a loan was required for the initial investment, that has to be taken into account.
      A little off topic: If I went to any business today and promised them a 10 year ROI, they would laugh. In this economic climate 1-2 year ROI seems to what they are willing to risk.

    2. Re:Return on investment by hansraj · · Score: 2, Insightful

      ...as long as the investment itself dosn't depreciate in value.

      which in this case it surely will. In fact the way technological things change in general I would assume that his solar-power setting would have pretty much depreciated to some small fraction of 38k.

      PS: I don't disapprove of this guy spending 38k on solar powering of his house even a tiny bit, but I think it is quite interesting to evaluate this stuff as parent suggested-

    3. Re:Return on investment by spun · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Ah, what? He's not reselling the damn thing, he is making money off of it every month. So what if it depreciates, we were never measuring the value of the thing over time anyway. Though I'm guessing many of the components will not depreciate much, just the batteries and photovoltaics. Having his house set up to run off of photovoltaics will let him easily take advantage of whatever advances come along in module and energy storage. The power modules will last at least 30 years. See, he would never be reselling the thing independent of his house. The thing is a part of the house now, and the entire house will continue to appreciate. As people become more interested in solar, a house with solar already in place will appreciate faster.

      Funny how so many people seem to want to find fault with solar energy, and use incomplete reasoning to look at only the possible negative consequences without looking at all the positives. Why do you think some people have such an irrational hatred of solar energy? I think the hippies are to blame. Nobody likes them, and they never fight back when you blame them, so I am going to go with definitely the hippies fault.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    4. Re:Return on investment by samkass · · Score: 1

      If that ROE is reasonable, why aren't zillions of commercial solar farms popping up everywhere? Or at least co-located with the wind farms that are being installed?

      --
      E pluribus unum
    5. Re:Return on investment by COMON$ · · Score: 1

      My wife and I are looking at building our house to be Solar in about 5 years. We are in the planning phases right now, found a good neighborhood built around ponds for heat pumps. But, not everything can be measured by the ROE (although your point is taken). The intangable benefits really work for you. Also considering the advances in solar cells this last year and the fact that I live in Nebraska, I should be able to get a really good system by the time we build.

      --
      CS: It is all sink or swim...oh and did I mention there are sharks in that water?
    6. Re:Return on investment by TooMuchToDo · · Score: 1

      But by how much will it depreciate? According to it's decreased output overtime? What's the warranty on the system? Most new solar panel/film systems provide at least a 50 year warranty, so if his system cost him $38K and you expect zero output after 50 years, the system loses $760 of value each year. Still not a bad deal.

    7. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm a hippy, you insensitive clod!

    8. Re:Return on investment by rs79 · · Score: 3, Informative

      " Despite the $38,000 initial cost for the setup, Loyd is very optimistic after a $3,000 savings in one year, meaning that in about 12 years"

      Might want to look up the lifespan of solar cells.

      "Cost of Solar Panels
      Solar panels have an effective lifespan of about 20 to 25 years, and their value and wattage output decrease steadily over time. The solar cell that has ...
      www.solarpanelinfo.com/solar-panels/solar-panel-cost.php "

      I have them too, but to be rigorous one needs to take their lifespan into consideration.

      --
      Need Mercedes parts ?
    9. Re:Return on investment by MozeeToby · · Score: 1

      You beat me to it. A year ago he probably could have locked in a %3 rate on a CD, and I would say that on average that is a pretty reasonable number to assume for a no-risk investment. If we further assume that electricity prices will go up by about the same amount (3% annually) his break even point is about 15.5 years.

      Of course, there's no telling what those rates are going to do over that kind of timeframe. Its also difficult to say what the performance of his solar panels will be over the entire lifecycle. I thought I remember reading that new panels will deteriorate by 50% over 25 years which is about 2.5% annually, assuming the degredation is linear. That is going to eat into his ROI quite a bit, and that doesn't take into account any costs to insure the panels against damage or the risk of damage if you leave them uninsured.

      All that being said, the most important variable is also the one you have the least control over, the cost of electricity in your area. If they go up at 5%, you catch up with a no-risk CD in 12.5 years; at 1% it would take nearly 20.

    10. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Because the short term cost is extremely high, and most people would rather buy a new Porsche then lay that amount of money out up front...regardless of ROI.

    11. Re:Return on investment by rev_sanchez · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If he'd gotten a loan and the loan payments were near $3,000/yr (which is pretty unlikely) or his average electricity savings increased over the life of the loan (more likely) he could offset his loan with his electricity savings and have a cost of little to nothing. I don't think solar is the best energy saving home improvement most people could make for their dollar but it's starting to get competitive.

      --
      If you didn't come to party don't bother knocking on my door. Prince '1999'
    12. Re:Return on investment by Kneo24 · · Score: 1, Offtopic

      And apparently it's all your fault. You should feel ashamed.

    13. Re:Return on investment by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      Of course that doesn't take in account resale value. Think about it, in ten years they may add 10 or 20 thousand dollars to the value of the home.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    14. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "I don't think solar is the best energy saving home improvement most people could make for their dollar"

      Good, because Solar is energy PRODUCING improvement.

    15. Re:Return on investment by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

      depreciation value measures what you would be able to sell your asset for because that is the best source of available data.

      however the measurement sees more use than just its nominal one which you tunneled down on to criticize the GP for using.

      instead, it is common to also use depreciation value and horizon (timeframe) to estimate the life of the capital investment.

      the trollish contradiction to you would have been along the lines of, "what, do you expect his solar system to last forever without repair or part obsolescence?"

      rather than troll you as you've done to the GP (naively or willfully), i've pointed out that equipment does age and need further investment, both incrementally for repairs and in bursts for system replacement. i've also pointed out that the GP was correct in using depreciation as a rough measure of how much to expect to pay to keep the system happy over time.

      to use a less green emotionally charged example, i spend $10,000 to replace my business' roof. My roof has a warranty, but more importantly i can look up the depreciation of roofing in actuarial tables because i also have machinery, computers, and a whole slew of disparate things to track the longevity of. I need to track the longevity of every capital asset outlay in order to maintain cognizance of my fixed costs of doing business. I need to know this in order to know whether i am bringing in enough money to meet those costs and stay in business long term. So, since i've got so mush different stuff to track valuation of, i use depreciation values and timeframes as an abstraction. It turns out that my roof depreciates to $1000 in 10 years and $0 in 15 years. Conservatively I then estimate that I will need to spend $10000 in inflation adjusted money in 10 years to replace the roof again. This makes my cost $1000 per year of operation.

      So, tl;dr is so far everyone assumes that because the person in the story saves $3000 a year that somehow his solar system will last for 10-12 years to repay itself without repair. This is fallacious logic. Depreciation is a way of measuring whether and how much it will cost to repair/replace the system in what time frame. From that one can estimate whether return of investment is possible.

      --
      "If still these truths be held to be
      Self evident."
      -Edna St. Vincent Millay
    16. Re:Return on investment by crmarvin42 · · Score: 4, Informative

      IIRC from the 6 month write up, he splurged and got the pricier (i.e. longer lasting) panels because he was getting either a grant or tax break from California for putting the panels in.

      --
      Bureaucracy expands to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy.-Oscar Wilde
    17. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Gee, I wonder whether or not 12-year-old solar panels will have depreciated.

    18. Re:Return on investment by JoeMerchant · · Score: 1

      Yeah, there's zero maintenance on solar panels, they never blow off, or break, or lose efficiency over time. And as for future value, that $38K system will hopefully be able to be purchased for far less 10 years in the future, so it's inherent value also drops as technology improves.

      Having said all that, I'd like to have a system on my house, too... not sure if I'd rather have a Tesla Roadster, though, roughly twice the price and it does a bit more for you than save money on the electric bill.

    19. Re:Return on investment by hedwards · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Because this sort of thing doesn't scale in a linear fashion. It's a lot easier to do this sort of thing for a couple of houses, assuming a reasonable amount of light and willingness to cut back on consumption. It gets a lot more complicated when you start having to pay for extra land, land use studies and worry about transmission wires.

    20. Re:Return on investment by vertinox · · Score: 1

      Three thousand dollar savings per year on a 38000 investment is a 7.8 percent rate of return on investment-- not bad, as long as the investment itself dosn't depreciate in value

      Investment into solar panels is like investing in a computer.

      The technology itself is going to depreciate in value simply because newer models will be more efficient and cheaper, but the real value is the what the device does in the meantime between upgrades.

      Lets say a business saves $1,000 a year on a $10,000 investment in computers for their employees.

      In 4 years, going by Moore's law, the same amount of computer power will be $2,500 and they can take the $4,000 they saved and give their employees all upgrades and pocket the rest.

      Same thing with Solar... In 4 years he can most likely buy a system that was one $40,000 for $10,000 and might even be more efficient so he can use some of that money he saved for the 4 years and put it towards that and continue the process.

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
    21. Re:Return on investment by RsG · · Score: 1

      The thing is a part of the house now, and the entire house will continue to appreciate. As people become more interested in solar, a house with solar already in place will appreciate faster.

      I could, I suppose, argue that he's getting the same depreciation that every early adopter gets. Cutting edge tech that cost's 38 grand today will cost much less in a decade, assuming the price continues to decline for photoelectric panels. Not to mention that retrofitting a house to be solar is probably a good deal less efficient, and more expensive, than building it solar from the ground up. So his resale is going to be competing with cheaper solar homes that were either refitted later, using lower cost materials of the same quality, or built with the equipment designed in.

      But I'm playing the devils advocate - that's not a position I myself agree with. The way I see it, being an early adopter in this case means getting a head start on energy savings. Five years ahead of the game means five years less payments to the power company. And someone's gotta break trail and show that it can be done to make way for the mass market version of the technology - that's the benefit early adopters bring to late adopters.

      --
      Erotic is when you use a feather. Exotic is when you use the whole chicken.
    22. Re:Return on investment by dgatwood · · Score: 4, Informative

      With the exception of the part where you said their output decreases over time, that's simply not true. Most of the current generation of solar panels guarantee a minimum of 80-85% output after 25-30 years, depending on manufacturer. That's in the warranty for the panels. If they fall below that level within 25-30 years, you get new panels. The effective lifespan before they produce no power at all is probably 100+ years, though most people would replace them with more efficient panels well before that time....

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    23. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      So what if it depreciates,

      Because there is a difference between

      • an investment of $38000 which pays $3000 per annum for 12 years after which it is worth $38000; and
      • an investment of $38000 which pays $3000 per annum for 12 years after which it is worth $0.

      The first is a reasonable investment. The second is throwing away money.

      we were never measuring the value of the thing over time anyway.

      How else are you going to determine if it is a worthwhile investment? It is one thing to do something that benefits the environment if the cost to you is minimal. It is quite another if it costs you a year's salary.

    24. Re:Return on investment by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      No where near 50% over 25 years more like 25% loss over 25 years.

    25. Re:Return on investment by sorak · · Score: 1

      I'm not against the green thing, but you do have a good point. Most of us would have to take out a loan to come up with that $38,000. So, let's say it was 5% interest. On the first year, $1,900 of that 3,000 would go toward paying interest, and the remaining $1,100 would go toward the principal. I'm not a banker but it seems like it would take about twenty years, if you assumed a fixed 5% APR. That is assuming no additional insurance and no maintenance or repair costs.

    26. Re:Return on investment by paeanblack · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If that ROE is reasonable, why aren't zillions of commercial solar farms popping up everywhere? Or at least co-located with the wind farms that are being installed?

      That 7.8% doesn't factor in the risk. Most of the initial investment is unrecoverable. The 10-12 years for return on the principal is based on many variables, most of which are volatile and unpredictable. The specific technologies are relatively new and bring their own unknowns. He wins big if electricity costs skyrockets and solar/alternate energy tech stagnates. Those are unlikely to both occur. He loses if power gets cheap or solar/alternate energy tech has some rapid advances.

      He has essentially exchanged his exposure to energy price fluctuations for host of new risks. The rate of return is pretty decent in today's economy, but not by a huge margin. At 5% or 6%, it wouldn't fly.

      At least this means residential solar is nearing viability.

      On the other hand, viable residential solar is not good news for the nuclear industry because of the political externalities involved. Large numbers of voters entering the energy generation business will sharply increase the nimby factor.

    27. Re:Return on investment by doublee3 · · Score: 1

      These solar cells wouldn't be economical where I live. I pay $0.08 per KWh for nuclear power and live at 40deg N latitude. So I pay 32% the cost per KWh this man does and get less sunlight. Even if I received the same amount of sunlight it would take (assuming his math is correct @ 12 years repayment time) 38 years to make the money back (150% rated lifespan). If I cared about up time, I could get a UPS +generator for my house and still be ahead.

    28. Re:Return on investment by vlm · · Score: 2, Informative

      According to it's decreased output overtime? ...... and you expect zero output after 50 years

      Check out a typical actual warranty for a kyocera module:

      http://www.kyocerasolar.com/pdf/specsheets/kc_warraty.pdf

      They guarantee 90% at 20 years since manufacture, or 80% at 20 years after sale date (from reseller or whatever)

      So, at about 30 grand, at least for the first 20 years, it loses about $150 of output per year.

      Basically decreased output is no longer economically relevant compared to disaster type problems. Now that we get "100 year floods" every year for the past 4 years, the house will rot out from underneath. Or a 'nado will blow it away. Or X percent of homes burn down per century, so in twenty years across millions of homes you'd lose X*20/100 percent due to fire vaporizing the entire structure including panels. Insurance for theft. Hail destroys the entire roof including the panels (note that panels are actually tougher than "old" asphalt shingles)

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    29. Re:Return on investment by Altus · · Score: 1

      Depends on the life span of the panels. If its not longer than the loan itself then you are barely making anything off of it.

      Also, since its a house, you have to consider resale. If the loan is 10 years and the panels last 10 years it might be a reasonable investment even if you barely make anything off of it. But if you don't get half the value of the panels back when selling after 5 years, its definitely not worth it.

      --

      "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women..." -H. Simpson

    30. Re:Return on investment by RsG · · Score: 1

      The question should not be about solar farms. A solar farm is commercial. TFA is an example of a guy who's done this residentially. Bit of a difference there.

      A homeowner can afford to make improvements that will not pay off for ten years, provided he has the capital to invest in his house, and plans on living there that long. In this case, the green angle gave him an incentive to go in that direction - a non-financial reason, but a responsible one nonetheless. Given declining costs for solar panels, and rising costs for electricity, this will likely become more common in the next decade.

      You asked why commercial farms often use wind instead of solar. Commercial solar power generally doesn't use photoelectric panels, for reasons of price and output. A more effective design would be an array of mirrors focused on a heat engine (Stirling maybe, though it doesn't have to be) connected to a dynamo. That's a little complex for residential use, but more cost effective if the goal is centralized power generation.

      The problem is that commercial solar generators are not as cost effective for energy farming in most locations. There are exceptions, mostly places where sunlight is abundant, but you also need a market to sell the power too if you're working commercially. Nevada would be an excellent place to build one (no idea if any such system has ever been proposed there).

      Wind farms fare slightly better in terms of the cost to build the windmill. Also, many locations that are well suited for wind farms are much less suited for solar farms, owing to the fact the climate favours the former, but not the latter.

      --
      Erotic is when you use a feather. Exotic is when you use the whole chicken.
    31. Re:Return on investment by Gospodin · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The system wouldn't just lose $760/year in value, it would also lose 2% in efficiency per year, which means that if he saved $3,000 the first year, he could expect to save only $2,940 the second, and so on (all else - electricity usage, cost of electricity, etc - being equal). The revenue stream then looks like this (over 10 years):

      Year 0: Cost of $38400.

      Year 1: Benefit of $3,000.

      Year 2: Benefit of $2,940.

      Year 3: Benefit of $2,880.

      Year 4: Benefit of $2,820.

      Year 5: Benefit of $2,760.

      Year 6: Benefit of $2,700.

      Year 7: Benefit of $2,640.

      Year 8: Benefit of $2,580.

      Year 9: Benefit of $2,520.

      Year 10: Benefit of $2,460.

      Value of system after 10 years: $30,400.

      Plugging these numbers into the IRR formula gives you a 5.7% return per year.

      If we make a slightly different assumption that the decreased output is geometric (not arithmetic) and still use the idea that the depreciated value equals the original cost times the current efficiency, then you can show that D + R = 7.9%, where D = depreciation rate and R = rate of return. So if you assume D = 2%, then R = 5.9%. But if D = 4%, then R = 3.9%, which is not great.

      Doesn't sound to me like an obvious win for solar power. On the other hand, it's not an obvious money sink, either, so that's good. I'm sure things will continue to improve.

      Would be interesting to see a subsidy-free comparison of both methods of electricity generation, but that's pretty hard. You can easily handle the consumer tax breaks, but how much do the producer's tax incentives affect the cost? And how much of his local coal/natural gas/hydro/nuclear generation is subsidized?

      --
      ...following the principles of Heisenburger's Uncertain Cat...
    32. Re:Return on investment by Pulse_Instance · · Score: 1
      And there is a difference between
      • an investment of $38000 which pays $3000 per annum for 12 years after which it is worth $38000
      • an investment of $38000 which pays $3000 per annum for 12 years after which it is worth $0
      • an investment of $38000 which pays $3000 per annum for much longer than 12 but after the first 12 years starts making you money

      just saying that the guy will not have something worth $0 after the 12 years he'll have something that is worth $3000 a year after 12 years

    33. Re:Return on investment by geekoid · · Score: 0

      Based on the last 20 years of Solar Cell developed, I would disagree.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    34. Re:Return on investment by camperdave · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Also, since its a house, you have to consider resale.

      You only have to consider resale if you plan on selling. If you've found the home you're going to spend the rest of your life in, then solar panel resale values are a moo point.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    35. Re:Return on investment by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

      Funny how so many people seem to want to find fault with solar energy, and use incomplete reasoning to look at only the possible negative consequences without looking at all the positives.

      Just FWIW, I wasn't attempting to "find fault" with solar energy, just to put the economics into terms that seem more useful to me. In fact, considering what I've been getting on my personal investments, 7.8 percent/year looks pretty attractive....r

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    36. Re:Return on investment by spun · · Score: 1

      Let me quote the part of the parent post I objected to:

      "In fact the way technological things change in general I would assume that his solar-power setting would have pretty much depreciated to some small fraction of 38k."

      The parent was talking about the standard definition of depreciation, that of the lose of value of the durable good. In fact, based on the that post's logic, the cost of repairing and replacing parts will come down over time. But by now, I'm sure you've read the dozens of posts explaining that solar panels will last at least 25 years at 80% rated power. So both your arguments are moot.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    37. Re:Return on investment by GooberToo · · Score: 1

      That's the problem with these setups. They are never reasonable ROI. He'll be lucky to get a ROI of 15 years. The straight math shows a ROI of almost 13 years but that assumes zero maintenance and the same efficiency then as he has now. In reality, many systems degrade to as little as 50% efficiency after ten years. So worst case, he might still be trying to pay off his initial investment even after twenty years.

      The problem with these system is, efficiency of new cells is constantly improving - though at a very slow pace. The ROI of a new system in five to ten years from now is likely to be considerably better. So waiting five to ten years may actually allow for a ROI ending at the same time as this guy's. And if that's the case, it means he's done nothing but wasting money, time, and yes, energy.

      In short, his logic isn't that far off from coming home to find the wife's new purchases fill the living room. When you ask her about it answers, "look how much money I saved - I had coupons!" Reality just doesn't work that way.

    38. Re:Return on investment by Repossessed · · Score: 1

      There is (or was, I doubt they survived the recession), a company set up around doing just that. The loans meant you didn't usually save much yourself, but you could also go green for no cost.

      --
      Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite (TM)
    39. Re:Return on investment by Joce640k · · Score: 1

      10-12 years lifetime isn't enough fro this to be green. For "green" you need to recover the energy you saved plus the energy used to produce/transport/install the panels, plus a bit extra. Only the "bit extra" is the green part. (And this assumes you didn't pollute anything when you made them)

      --
      No sig today...
    40. Re:Return on investment by compro01 · · Score: 1

      Kyocera's warranty specifies 10% loss over 10 years and 20% loss over 20 years.

      http://www.kyocerasolar.com/pdf/specsheets/kc_warraty.pdf (PDF warning)

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    41. Re:Return on investment by spun · · Score: 1

      I never thought you were finding fault, I was chastising the dumb trolls like sexconker. Assuming the thing lasts 30 years (which it should) and is worth absolutely nothing then, requires minimal maintenance or repairs, and the cost of electricity stays about the same, I calculate about a 4.5% ROI. Of course, the conversion infrastructure will still be worth something even if the PVs and the batteries aren't, and electricity will likely become more expensive in that time, so the actual ROI is likely somewhere in between 4.5 and 7.8. Assuming I did my math right, which is a pretty big assumption.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    42. Re:Return on investment by Space+cowboy · · Score: 5, Informative
      Panels generally last 25 years at which time they're at 80% of their initial efficiency.

      I spent $78k (with no loan, so no extra payback) putting solar panels on my house late last year. My highest bill (August last year) was ~$1000 and I was averaging ~$700/month over the year; my May bill this year was $49. I estimate payback for my system to be ~10 years or so. There's a few things to consider if you're thinking of doing it yourself:
      • The cost of electricity is only going up. If you graph it over time, it's been steadily increasing for the last 10 years or so in my area (Bay area, CA)
      • You put yourself on the 'expensive electricity in the day, cheap electricity at night' and get a meter that sells your over-production back to the utility
      • It puts a significant value on the house should you want to sell it, because the new owner gets to spend less per month on electricity.
      • Your state will give you a chunk of change back (I got $15k or so) if you invest in solar power for your house
      • You'll also get a 30% tax credit (ie: taken off your tax bill, not off your earnings-before-tax) if you go solar this year. Last year it was capped at $2k, so I lost out on ~$20k. Oh well.
      • The more electricity you use, the more expensive each unit becomes. The cost of the top 50% of my electricity-use per month was costing 2x as much as the bottom 50% because prices are tiered. If you can get yourself out of that top-tier, it can really be worth it.

      We use a lot of electricity. This is a nice, green way to offset that and still have the toys I like (heated swimming pool, air-conditioning, pond in the back yard, server-room in the garage,...). Example: last month (1st May -> 31st May), the power production (I have the monitoring system all set up :) was 1,260 kWH. That matches nicely with our average 40 kWH/day with air-conditioning on. And if it's not being soaked up by your solar panels, it's just warming the roof and causing your air-con to go into overdrive... :)

      The payback calculation is pretty easy. Maintenance is essentially zero, so total cost including permits, installation, etc. was ($78k - $2k - $15k) = $61k. Savings per year are ~$6000. Payback in ~10 years, assuming electricity costs are static (unlikely) and after that it's all gravy :)

      Simon

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    43. Re:Return on investment by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

      no, depreciation works differently than that. If a good (like most technology) has a steep depreciation curve, that can come from parts being expensive and hard to come by. (it can come from other factors too.) Thus no one will want to buy a used item precisely because it's expensive to repair.

      i'm sure that solar panels aren't the only cost involved in a project to take a house off the grid. I'm pretty sure batteries or another energy storage technique are involved. Few batteries, much less large capacity batteries will last longer than 10 years. Further, battery longevity is presented by manufacturers under the most ideal conditions. I would expect to be replacing batteries within 5 years because of deep evening-overnight discharge.

      but even if they were, i'm less than sanguine about reality reflecting the 25 year claims. Additionally, there is no consideration given to mechanical frailty. i.e. how well can a solar panel take a baseball from the neighbor's kids? large hailstones?

      --
      "If still these truths be held to be
      Self evident."
      -Edna St. Vincent Millay
    44. Re:Return on investment by really_irish_man · · Score: 1

      That's not quite right and I assume you mean ROI and not ROE. It gets a lot more complicated than just $3,000/$38,000. A true bean counter would use discounted cash flows. For the sake of argument, and to make the math easier, let's assume that the solar panels will still operate at 100% for 20 years and then have to be completely replaced. The current risk-free ROR is roughly 4%. In other words you can take the same $38,000 invest it and get a promised 4%. Initially the panels look like a better deal. Now comes the factor of risk. What is the risk of rising electricity prices? What is the risk that the prices will fall? If they fall too much then your ROI is actually less than the risk-free investment making this a bad decision financially. What if the panels fail after the warranty expires? On year 10 you now have to dump another $20,000 into your system. There are plenty of other examples and ways to mitigate the risk through insurance, etc. You also need to evaluate other options. Could one spend less than $38,000 on various other improvements including new windows, insulation, better appliances, etc, and still gain the $3,000/year? If so then that's a better deal. You can look at the many various ways, including trying to estimate the environmental cost. But that's how a business would decide. For a person this analysis can never quantify the "coolness" factor. I buy plenty of things that are financially stupid but I get a lot of enjoyment out of them and I work hard for it, so who cares.

    45. Re:Return on investment by gbjbaanb · · Score: 1

      the OP did say "co-located with the wind farms", which cancels out the extra land payments and transmission wires - these are already dealt with for the windmills. They can only get a certain density of windmills, so why not put blocks of solar cells between them?

      Perhaps governmental subsidy has something to do with it.

    46. Re:Return on investment by Ironsides · · Score: 1

      My highest bill (August last year) was ~$1000 and I was averaging ~$700/month over the year;

      Why are you using so much power? How much were you using, for that matter, and what was the rate? My parents house maxed out at $400 in winter when the heatpump broke and they were stuck on emergency heat.

      --
      Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
    47. Re:Return on investment by jonbryce · · Score: 1

      It does depreciate in value because the panels only last about 30 years. That makes the IRR about 6.8%, which is still pretty good.

    48. Re:Return on investment by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Panels are not the likely issues.
      Panels are in the 20-30 year range (tho at 80% power).

      Inverters and batteries are the issue.
      Inverters can go bad every 5-7 years and batteries more frequently than that.

      On the plus side... power seems to be ~280% more expensive over 20 year periods that I researched. 2 cents in 1968, 5 cents in 1988, 15 cents in 2008.

      So in 10 years, presumably, his power bills will be about double what they are now.

      And that assumes no period of high inflation-- recent government printing of money could lead to a period of high inflation. If we return to 1980's inflation, his project could pay off very quickly.

      And no period of energy bill increases-- if oil quickly returns to over $100 a barrel and natural gas doubles-- then electric bills could go up a lot.

      Of course if we get a period of hyperinflation (20%-70%+), then he will have hit the jackpot.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    49. Re:Return on investment by Space+cowboy · · Score: 1

      There are three main causes - the air-conditioning, the water pumps (for the pool and the pond), and the server-rack in that order. The air-conditioning is a must (so I'm told by fiancee-unit :), and pumping pool water for 4-5 hours a day is a significant sink of electricity - switching the pool pump on *always* makes the electricity meter show that I'm pulling energy from the grid, even at peak solar production times. The pool pump sends water up to the roof to be heated by solar absorption, so it's basically pumping several thousand gallons of water per day about 20 feet up in the air...

      The server-rack has 2 servers in it (each with dual PSU), and combined with the tape-backup, the UPS, and the SAN disks they take ~1kW. That adds up to ~12kWH/day, which is a fair old whack. The air-con is on a 40A circuit though, as is the pool pump. Those *really* suck power.

      Then there's two water pumps for the pond (2 waterfalls). Those are running 24-hours though I am considering putting one of the pumps (the big one :) on a manual switch. any water pump running at 24x7 costs a fair amount...

      Summer is much worse (for us) than Winter because we trim the pool back to a 2-hour maintenance cycle, and there's no air-conditioning to worry about.

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    50. Re:Return on investment by Ironsides · · Score: 1

      Assuming the man had the money in his pocket to start with. If a loan was required for the initial investment, that has to be taken into account.

      Regardless of the money being in his pocket to start with, two things have to be taken into account. Interest and Inflation need to be taken into account. Interest because, at worst, he could just put the money into a savings account and earn interest on the money. Inflation because $3000 saved 5 years from now is not worth $3000 today. Realistically, he would have to be saving much more to have it break even in the 12 years he claims. 7 year Certificates of Deposit are paying 3.75%. Using only 3.1% as interest on $38k with $3k savings per year and ignoring inflation, he's never going to break (compound interest kills it). Oh, and the reason I'm ignoring inflation is because he could easily get more than 3.1%+inflation on $38k.

      --
      Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
    51. Re:Return on investment by Zalbik · · Score: 4, Informative

      Doesn't sound to me like an obvious win for solar power

      It is an obvious win, because you are failing to compound the savings.

      He can invest the savings on electricity each year and substantially increase his ROR.

      The IRR formula does NOT account for the potential re-investment of interim cash flows.

    52. Re:Return on investment by jonbryce · · Score: 1

      You can look at inflation futures to reduce the discount rate on your income stream. Electricity won't exactly match inflation, but it is a start..

    53. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Other posts say the loss is arithmetic.

      Also you're forgetting that since energy costs can be expected to follow inflation. 5.9% is better than you'll get from an inflation adjusted bond.

    54. Re:Return on investment by Ironsides · · Score: 1

      Recommendation, especially since you live in Nebraska: Plan on skiping solar panels for now (but have your roof built in such a way they can be added later). That way when the costs come down more, you can add them later. (Provided they have not come down sufficiently by then) Instead, look at energy saving technologies, such as ground source heat pumps. Water pond heat pumps may work, but do the ponds get too cold in winter to heat your house? Also, a windmill might give you a better ROE than solar.

      One other thing, that will really help in the long term. Get conduits put into your walls from the beginning. That way, when you run/re-run network cable and other things, you can do it easily instead of having a major construction project on your hands.

      --
      Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
    55. Re:Return on investment by siriuskase · · Score: 1

      Thanks for running the numbers. I was wondering if anyone had a business calculator on their desk. Have you run the numbers accounting for the fact that if you use solar shingles, you don't need to use regular shingles? If you install a solar roof instead of a standard roof, rather than on top of a perfectly good existing roof, the savings would be significant.

      --
      If you must moderate, please moderate as irrelevent, not something bad, because I'm sure someone will find this interest
    56. Re:Return on investment by Altus · · Score: 1

      That sounds like its worth wile even with the huge outlay up front. I don't know if you had the cash or if you had to take out a loan for it. that would be a pretty substantial loan.

      I live up in New England and I dont use nearly as much electricity per month as you. Ive considered solar pannels myself, but it isn't as obvious a deal as it is for you (though with electricity going up and the cost of pannels going down, it will get there).

      The two things I wonder are:
      1) what do you do when you need to replace your roof? Around here roofs don't last 25 years.

      2) for people who live in snowy areas, how does one clean off the pannels, do you have to climb up there after every storm or just accept that you don't get any power when there is snow up there?

      --

      "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women..." -H. Simpson

    57. Re:Return on investment by inviolet · · Score: 1

      an investment of $38000 which pays $3000 per annum for much longer than 12 but after the first 12 years starts making you money

      But it isn't making you money after the first 12 years. A $38,000 investment needs to make 4-8% per year just to pay for its own opportunity cost. This is because it must compensate you for what you didn't spend the $38,000 on. So his savings of $3000 per year is really a savings of $1000 per year, give or take depending on what other investments (CDs, stocks, land, etc.) he turned down.

      Now add in the cost of periodic battery replacement. And panel breakage not covered by warranty. And inverter breakdowns after the first ten years. And hassle, which is potentially a very big but intangible expense. He'll be lucky to break even.

      There will be no resale value either, because in 20 or 30 years, there will be much better panels available for much lower cost. This means that the system is paying for its TVM but demolishing its capital cost. What a fashionable, attention-whoring waste.

      --
      FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
    58. Re:Return on investment by Ironsides · · Score: 1

      I'd recommend looking into a ground source heatpump. It's generally more efficient than AC and should save you quite a bit of money there. I can't say much about your heating, as you don't say what kind you have.

      The pump for the solar thermal on the roof shouldn't be using up that much electricity, as the water creating a vacuum going down should really help to offset the energy required to push the water up.

      That said, you either sure use a lot of electricity or have one crazy high electric rate. Are you in California, by chance?

      --
      Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
    59. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      just saying that the guy will not have something worth $0

      You missed my point, which was that the future value makes a difference; hence depreciation makes a difference; that is something that the OP did not seem to understand.

      he'll have something that is worth $3000 a year after 12 years

      No, he will not.

      Accountants have the concept of depreciation (which is different from capital cost allowance, or whatever the US tax term is) for a reason. As the solar panels age, they decrease in efficiency. Other parts of the system will wear out as well. If nothing else, the batteries (or whatever) will need to be replaced.

      Offsetting this is that energy costs are likely to increase much faster than inflation in the near future. So it is possible that the decrease in electricity savings from decreased efficiency might be made up by the savings from increased cost of buying electricity from the utility company.

    60. Re:Return on investment by mattack2 · · Score: 1

      i'm sure that solar panels aren't the only cost involved in a project to take a house off the grid. I'm pretty sure batteries or another energy storage technique are involved.

      You would have a valid point, IF THEY WERE GOING OFF THE GRID.

      The blog post this Slashdot article points to is *on* the grid (and in fact, at least my local power company subsidies REQUIRE you to be on the grid). So the talk of "batteries or another energy storage technique" are completely irrelevant to this discussion. (The grid itself is the 'storage technique', since you are "paid back" in energy up to the amount you put into it.)

    61. Re:Return on investment by Antidamage · · Score: 1

      The risk with this idea is the that cheaper, better solar panels will come out in that time. Then your expensive, inefficient solar panels are just costing you money.

    62. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ROI

      You keep using that term. I do not think it means what you think it means.

    63. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You forgot to take into account increases in the price of electricity

    64. Re:Return on investment by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      I assume you have those panels insured, or is that already covered under your home owners insurance? The thought of a hail storm makes me cringe!

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    65. Re:Return on investment by GameMaster · · Score: 1

      Your concepts seem sound, but you don't seem to have a good understanding of solar systems or this situation, in particular. Nowhere in the post did I see anything to suggest that this is an "off grid" system. In fact, looking at his one month update immediately mentions what his electricity bill has dropped to which, explicitly, implies that it's a grid tied system (the most common type of system). Instead of storing energy, it just flows back into the grid when not being used and the electric company gives you a credit towards any grid based power you end up using in the future. In fact, if you bother to read his original article, it clearly states that the only components in the system are the solar cells, the wiring, and the AC inverter. Like most things designed for home/commercial power management, I think it's safe to assume that the inverter, probably, has an expected lifespan that meets, or exceed, that of the panels.

      The only thing you might have a point about would be the issue of baseballs, hail, etc. Personally, I would expect that the panels are, reasonably, durable but damage is always possible. Of course, that's one of the reasons you would want to have homeowners insurance.

      --

      Rules of Conduct:
      #1 - The DM is always right.
      #2 - If the DM is wrong, see rule #1
    66. Re:Return on investment by sjames · · Score: 1

      Those things are what insurance is for.

      Depending on how the cost of electricity goes, it could pay itself back at an increasing rather than decreasing rate.

    67. Re:Return on investment by Space+cowboy · · Score: 1

      Well, I'm in the bay area, CA, so hailstorms aren't that common :) But yes, the panels are listed on the house insurance. At $1000 each, and with 48 of them, they almost have to be...

      Simon

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    68. Re:Return on investment by dwywit · · Score: 1

      My inverter's control boards blew at ~8 years, but were replaced for less than a third the price of a new inverter. My batteries started going bad at the same age. Batteries will last quite a while if you treat them right.

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    69. Re:Return on investment by Xarin · · Score: 1

      You can also get a compressor unit that will reject the houses heat into the pool. This only works if you have a smaller compressor for example for the upstairs and a larger compressor for downstairs unless you have a really big pool since it will get too warm. In the good old days, people would just run cold tap water through them and dump the hot water into the sewer.

    70. Re:Return on investment by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      How much money would he have to save to produce $3000 after tax income.

      Assuming 10% calif taxes and 28% federal taxes, that's about 4838 pre-tax income to support that amount of payment from net income.
      Assuming 3.75% bonds (equities would be way too risky), he would need about $129,000 to produce that income stream. If he had $50k, he could probably get 6%+ safely in corporate bonds but most solar setups seem to be below that amount.

      So by investing $38,000 he has produced an income stream equivalent to saving $129,000.

      If the price of electricity goes up, that would go up in a leveraged fashion.
      So if electricity doubled (likely) over 10 years, then it would be like $260,000.

      OTH, if interest rates rose to 7.5% (also likely), then it would be like $65,000.

      If he retires, then he will not have to take out money from his 401k to pay for electricity-- avoiding a taxable event.

      Inverters and batteries will break and be more expensive to replace in the future.
      Panels should last a very long time.

      I wonder if he could incrementally add new panels to increase the savings effectively.

      My mini-plan is to set up a non-grid tied system to run an air conditioner (to lower my daytime air conditioning needs and thus trim off the most expensive electricity usage).

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    71. Re:Return on investment by Space+cowboy · · Score: 1

      I paid in cash, although there are loans specially for solar power, at a subsidised rate I believe.

      My roof is new (as of 3 years ago) and looking pretty good, so it shouldn't be an issue for a while, but the panels are very lightweight (I can lift one with my little finger) and rest on an aluminium frame that attaches to the roof - you'd need to remove the frame and then re-attach. More involved than just replacing the roof, but not terribly so.

      Snow ? What's that ? Not much of it in sunny CA [grin]. I have washed them once - when the blue colour turned into a more browny-blue, but it didn't seem to make any difference to the panels production. *I* felt better, having "taken action" :) If snow is a real possibility, I guess you accept the loss of power or you clean'em. I guess you might be able to get 'windscreen-wipers' for panels :)

      Simon

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    72. Re:Return on investment by Space+cowboy · · Score: 1

      Agreed on the up/down thing, but I'm guessing there's probably large losses for friction (the solar heating essentially consists of lots of little black-rubber tubes laid out on the roof). Not much chance for laminar flow at the rate I'm pumping water.

      I do indeed have a crazy-high electricity rate. The basic (boil a kettle once a day) rate is 11 cents/kWH, rising to 44 cents/kWH on the top-tier last time I looked. And yes, I live in CA... Half of my power-use was in the 44 cents/kWH :(

      Simon

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    73. Re:Return on investment by sjames · · Score: 1

      Now, plug in the numbers for the warranted 90% at 12 years and 80% after 25 years. (that is, loses <1% not 2% per year). Then factor in that electricity from the grid is likely to increase in cost (and so the savings becomes greater for a given amount of power produced).

    74. Re:Return on investment by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      Efficiency loss isn't really a huge issue since you can always attach another panel or two. Adding extra capacity would be quite cheap even assuming that prices remain constant. Sure, it would increase your total investment, but not by much.

    75. Re:Return on investment by fishbowl · · Score: 1

      Solar panels where I live (Arizona) have to withstand the Arizona summers, and also 50km/h winds that drive sandstorms, fierce hail storms, torrential monsoon rains, and snow.

      The solar panels that the previous owner of my house installed didn't work for ten years, and they were not neglected or abused.

      --
      -fb Everything not expressly forbidden is now mandatory.
    76. Re:Return on investment by Ironsides · · Score: 1

      Note to self: Never move to California. That electric rate is crazy. 'Progressive' tax rate or just rate hike?

      --
      Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
    77. Re:Return on investment by hb253 · · Score: 1

      One small point. If the water circuit to the roof is a closed system, the height has nothing to do with how much power is required. In a closed system, you only need to account for friction losses.

      --
      Self awareness - try it!
    78. Re:Return on investment by dunkelfalke · · Score: 1

      Holy shit :-O

      just to put it into some perspective: it looks that you have used more electricity in August 2008 alone than me in both years 2007 and 2008 together. And I do consume more than average here because of the two fish tanks.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    79. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because electricity doesn't cost as much to produce as I pay to receive it.

      Installing panels on my house saves me the "going rate" of delivered electricity. It may not be worth that much to the generating/distributing facilities.

    80. Re:Return on investment by srvivn21 · · Score: 1

      Doesn't sound to me like an obvious win for solar power

      It is an obvious win, because you are failing to compound the savings.

      He can invest the savings on electricity each year and substantially increase his ROR.

      The IRR formula does NOT account for the potential re-investment of interim cash flows.

      Not to mention the the ever increasing cost of grid power. The savings given in the original IRR seem to assume a static grid power rate, which is highly unlikely.

    81. Re:Return on investment by Vellmont · · Score: 1


      ROE is a much better way of calculating economics than "payback time," by the way

      I think you're right, as you can compare against other investments.

      The other factor that needs to be considered is simply that this is somewhat of a sunk cost. Getting back the equity is questionable when you sell your house. How much does it REALLY increase your home value for instance? With solar panel prices decreasing, I'd say any increased home equity would tend to decrease with time.

      In other words it's not likely something you'd want to do unless you have a high likelihood that you'll stay in your house for many years.

      --
      AccountKiller
    82. Re:Return on investment by BikeHelmet · · Score: 1

      Don't forget to factor in that electricity will likely cost twice as much in 10 years. ;) It probably is a clear win for solar, but we'll find out for sure in a decade.

    83. Re:Return on investment by jcaplan · · Score: 1

      The time to recover the energy investment in the panels is much shorter than the time needed to recover your financial investment, as much of the cost of solar is labor. The energy cost of the panels is already part of the price. Suppose that the panel cost from acquiring materials, to production, delivery and installation is 50% energy and 50% labor. The energy break-even point of these panels would be 5 or 6 years, if you go by the 10-12 year financial payback and if the energy-labors costs were actually 50-50.

      There has also been analysis done of the toxics that go into solar panels. It turns out that you get to break even on toxics use in a year or so, since you are displacing conventional power sources, such as coal with its heavy metals.

      I'm glad that someone is finally asking the right questions about the energy recovery and toxics. I find it amazing that solar technology has progressed so far lately that people are actually looking at whether they can recover their investment, rather than installing just to be green or because they are far from the grid. (Far enough for economic parity, including batteries, for a off-the-grid system has been quoted at 0.25 miles or 0.4 km, since in the US you pay for the poles and wires the utility strings out to your place.)

    84. Re:Return on investment by Loki_1929 · · Score: 5, Funny

      It's called "we want electricity but we're going to protest any time someone wants to build something that produces electricity in our state because we're so super environmentally friendly that we'd rather drag power from halfway across the country from an ancient, smog and carbon spewing coal plant losing tons of power to transfer loss rather than build clean energy production in our own back yard".

      Californomics - not for the feint of heart, the light of wallet, or the comprehending of basic math.

      --
      -- "Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
    85. Re:Return on investment by ishobo · · Score: 1

      Move to a city that has municipal electricy, you will pay significantly less.

      --
      Slashdot - The great and glorious cluster fuck of Internet wisdom.
    86. Re:Return on investment by Hummdis · · Score: 1

      There are other factors to consider in this and that is the weather. The guy is in Sunnyvale, CA -- they get far more weather there and have more frequent cloudy days than here in Phoenix,AZ. Therefore, put the $38,000 solar investment to use in Arizona that has an average of 360 days of sunshine per year and longer days with the sun in both summer and winter than Sunnyvale, CA. In addition to the sunshine per year, there's the cost of the electric provider from the utility that should be taken into account. PG&E rates differ from other utility companies such as APS or SRP here in Arizona. Therefore, if SRP or APS charges more than my savings per year would be higher just because of higher rates. The only way that one can compare one solar installation to another is to have one compared to another solar installation of similar, if not exact, size and geographical location. It would not surprise me to know that a smaller installation in Phoenix can generate the same amount of electricity daily than one in Northern California simply due to the longer days.

    87. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It is an obvious win, because you are failing to compound the savings.

      No, it's an obvious loss; YOU are failing to compound the initial $38,400 cost. If the solar panel had never been bought, the savings would have compounded to (say, @3.65%, current 10-year T-bill) $55,000 after 10 years.

    88. Re:Return on investment by Space+cowboy · · Score: 1

      Ah yes, I forgot to mention the reef tank - not huge at 150G, but not small either... Water plays quite a large part in our home :)

      I went for T5's rather than Metal Halide, but it's probably still a fair amount.

      Simon

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    89. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      $38K? That seems expensive to me, but I don't know how big his system is. I'm putting one my house (waiting on electrical inspection) that is 4 kW, and it cost $22k. After the 40% tax credit (30% federal, 10% state), I'm looking at $13.2K out of my pocket. My electricity usage is $2000/year at current prices. Plus we qualify for the Renewable Energy Certificates program so I'll be EARNING more than $100/month from the power company and I get to use the electricity!

      So it's going to pay for itself in less than 5 years. If power costs go up, then even sooner.

    90. Re:Return on investment by kdawgud · · Score: 1

      If you're going to account for re-investment of interim cash flows, shouldn't you compare it to the opportunity cost of not investing the initial $38K to begin with?

    91. Re:Return on investment by illumin8 · · Score: 1

      He can invest the savings on electricity each year and substantially increase his ROR.

      Or, he could just invest the original $36K and make a LOT more. Investing the few thousand dollars he saves every month is like spending $50K on a sports car and investing the money you would have spent on bus fare in a savings account instead...

      --
      "When the president does it, that means it's not illegal." - Richard M. Nixon
    92. Re:Return on investment by COMON$ · · Score: 1
      Ya we were considering windmills but it really isn't that windy in Nebraska and we do get a lot of sun. I am betting on the solar cells being efficient enough by the time we build our house. Water pond heat pumps are fairly efficient here but I haven't gathered enough data, I know with the air heat pumps the number of days that you need a heater average 20, so I am certain that the water heat pumps should allow for year round. The neighborhood I am looking at was designed around the concept but being the geek I am, will be doing some market research :) As for the conduits, ya, definitely absolutely....for those of us (I'm guessing you as well) who ran the million miles of wiring in the 90s it is a definite must even though it adds cost...

      It is just an odd feeling though, a gut instinct, I am not an alarmist or anything or a survivalist, but I just have this feeling that I will be thanking myself in 30 years if I have a self sufficient home paid off...

      --
      CS: It is all sink or swim...oh and did I mention there are sharks in that water?
    93. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Everyone tries to nickel and dime this kind of thing, which is dumb. There are other costs you're all ignoring, such as the ability to have power when no one else does, and protection from the risk of spikes in energy costs.

      How many people have hobbies that cost much more than this and return less?

    94. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're assuming that the cost of electricity will stay the same over the next 10 years. It won't.

    95. Re:Return on investment by $pace6host · · Score: 1

      but even if they were, i'm less than sanguine about reality reflecting the 25 year claims. Additionally, there is no consideration given to mechanical frailty. i.e. how well can a solar panel take a baseball from the neighbor's kids? large hailstones?

      I think that this whole putting solar panels, batteries and inverters thing in your house is something you need to talk to your insurer about *- at the same time, it'd probably be good to talk about whether you were covered for damage to the panels. Insurance premium increases should also be considered in the cost. If the panels are damaged before their estimated 25-yr life, you can file a claim. I'd be more concerned about the panels just failing - but hopefully they have a good 25-yr warranty.

      * - Note: I would be very worried if you didn't have such a discussion - they would probably consider this a risk.

    96. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If we're going to look at it that way, couldn't he, instead of solarizing his home, have invested the original money and made even more? In fact, looking at it your way we need to subtract how much he's not getting from investing the principal into something else from whatever savings he gets from going solar.

    97. Re:Return on investment by cvtan · · Score: 1

      At the time of the break even point the inverter circuits will need to be replaced. I don't recall if there are batteries involved in this installation, but they will need replacement also. Someone is going to tell you about replacing those old inefficient solar cells. Break even point? Never. The price of oil-fired energy will be adjusted so that solar homes are never cost effective. You might feel morally superior to regular people though. Cheaper to buy a Prius. As an electrical engineer I find this depressing... In Hawaii, electricity is generated from imported oil and naphtha. It is expensive electricity, but even on a tropical island there is little solar use. Geothermal energy costs the same as the oil-fired kind so why bother?

      --
      Sorry, but gray text on gray background is making my eyes bleed.
    98. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You say "The IRR formula does NOT account for the potential re-investment of interim cash flows." -- By the same token, you're not taking into account the fact that he's out $30k right now that he can't invest in something else.

    99. Re:Return on investment by blitziod · · Score: 1

      i sure hate to burst this guys solar bubble..but that pool pump sounds like a rip..Why not just use a VERY small wind turbine to pump the water. I am thinking 26" or less in diameter would be ok with to have in a residential area..it would be no more offensive than a direct TV dish.

      --
      The only way to bust a doper--is when you yourself become a smoker!
    100. Re:Return on investment by blitziod · · Score: 1

      you also fail to calculate risks ...if you do n ot look at risks per type of investment lottery tickets will always be better on paper than t bills...is the risk of his panel investment lower than a mutual fund? if so he can do a lot better than 5% over 20 years. Is it less prone to inflation( ie .. the cost of panels or home swith panels will be expected to rise at least as fast as inflation?)than a saving account? at the end of the day these kinds of long term investments are better looked at by using the tables a prior poster noted..and looking at cost/earnings on a yearly basis. Also will his property taxes increase with the "Value" of his home? What about homeowners insurance?

      --
      The only way to bust a doper--is when you yourself become a smoker!
    101. Re:Return on investment by bh_doc · · Score: 1

      Guarantee? Yeah, right! Have a look at the "Valid From" date at the end of that PDF. You can't fool me!

    102. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is just retarded because you're failing to account for potential re-investment of the outlay ($38,000).

    103. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually a Discounted Payback Period would be more suitable

    104. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Of course it doesn't because then you'd have to look at the potential investments that he could put his initial capital expenditure into rather than investing it in solar which is the whole point of NPV or IRR calculations to begin with. He's spent money up front that is no longer available to be invested, so by your methods, he loses because no matter what rate of return he gets by putting 3K a year into investments, it won't equal what he could get by putting 38K in now at the same rate of return.

      In its most basic form, he has chosen to invest 38K for a 3K year return. In a more complicated form the grandparent has done alright at forecasting, but he should have projected out 25 years, or at least added a terminal value.

    105. Re:Return on investment by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      5.7% tax free is actually pretty studly.

      Also, adjusting for wimpy inflation of 3%...
      3000 1 3000
      2940 1.03 3028.2
      2880 1.06 3055.39
      2820 1.09 3081.49
      2760 1.13 3106.4
      2700 1.16 3130.04
      2640 1.19 3152.3
      2580 1.23 3173.07
      2520 1.27 3192.26
      2460 1.3 3209.74

      Assuming he gets 5% in a CD and pays .28% fed tax and 10% california tax, he'll actually end up with about 3.9% return on his investment.

      Two problems--
      * a period of high inflation is really likely since the government has created a couple trillion bucks out of nothing.
      * Social security issues make it likely the tax rate will rise to over 28% (if nothing else, they may inflate him into the 36% bracket-- he's probably already hit by AMT).

      Next issue is that historically, power triples every 20 years unless you are by a hydro-electric plant or something like that. Nuclear energy doesn't help much- we have that in Texas and it just gets charged out at the highest rate (I assume they make a higher profit when natural gas and other fuels get expensive).
      So anyway, the 3% inflation assumption is a bit low. I don't think it is unreasonable to see a return curve more like this...

      3000 1 3000
      2940 1.05 3087
      2880 1.1 3175.2
      2820 1.16 3264.5
      2760 1.22 3354.8
      2700 1.28 3445.96
      2640 1.34 3537.85
      2580 1.41 3630.32
      2520 1.48 3723.19
      2460 1.55 3816.27

      Which is only 5% inflation.

      I'm sure there are a gazillion problems we havn't considered. But every dollar saved, is a dollar you don't have to pay taxes on so you get the full benefit of the dollar.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    106. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Doesn't sound to me like an obvious win for solar power

      It is an obvious win, because you are failing to compound the savings.

      He can invest the savings on electricity each year and substantially increase his ROR.

      The IRR formula does NOT account for the potential re-investment of interim cash flows.

      But, he no longer has the initial $38000 to save and invest.

    107. Re:Return on investment by Zalbik · · Score: 1

      No, it's an obvious loss; YOU are failing to compound the initial $38,400 cost. If the solar panel had never been bought, the savings would have compounded to (say, @3.65%, current 10-year T-bill) $55,000 after 10 years.

      No, I've shown this in numerous posts now. At 5%, his $38,400 grows to about $68,000 in 12 years, but he also LOSES $36,000 in electricity payments. $3000/year invested at 5% for 12 years grows to approx $47,000. So without solar, his total return is ~$30,000 With solar, his total return is ~$47,000 At some higher percentage return (I'm guessing around 8% or 9%), the two options will come out even. If he can somehow magically manage a consistent 12% return, then the solar definitely loses out over 12 years.

    108. Re:Return on investment by Zalbik · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Or, he could just invest the original $36K and make a LOT more. Investing the few thousand dollars he saves every month is like spending $50K on a sports car and investing the money you would have spent on bus fare in a savings account instead...

      $36k invested at 5% for 12 years returns $68,000.
      $3000/year invested each year at 5% for 12 years returns $47,000

      With option A, he still had to pay $36,000 in electricity payments as well. He doesn't get a lot more, he gets a lot less.

      Kudos for adding a car analogy though!

      It's more like spending $50,000 on a sports car to get rid of your $500/month lease.

    109. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      except those savings are most likely going towards paying off a loan.

    110. Re:Return on investment by Rogerborg · · Score: 1

      you get new panels

      Sure you do, assuming that you can keep the warranty for 25 years, that you can identify an extant company that's closely related enough to the warranter (manufacturer? retailer? installer?) for you to collect from, that they're minded to honor the warranty, and that they still supply anything even remotely equivalent to the old panels.

      Given that most people can't even manage to claim on 30-day rebate offers, do you really think that a 25 year warranty is worth the paper it's written on?

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    111. Re:Return on investment by supertjx · · Score: 1

      Gospodin's computation is correct. The IRR is the rate of interest that "present values" the future savings to the cost of investment of $38,400. If you compound the savings, you are in effect, computing the future value of the savings stream. In this case, it should be compared to the future value of the cost of investment of $38,400 (i.e. 38,400 + whatever interest you would have earned had you put this money in the bank).

    112. Re:Return on investment by zmooc · · Score: 1

      Nah. They have a guaranteed effective lifespan of about 20 to 25 years. However, most solar panels of that age still produce about 80% of their rated power, which is ok for practical use.

      --
      0x or or snor perron?!
    113. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That is if the company is still in business after 25-30 years, to provide the warranty.

    114. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      WTF??? He's $30,000 in the hole from day one which had he not spent on Solar he could have been investing in the first place! Your formula does NOT account for the up front capital investment cost.

    115. Re:Return on investment by vlm · · Score: 1

      Guarantee? Yeah, right! Have a look at the "Valid From" date at the end of that PDF. You can't fool me!

      I don't know if a Japanese company would "get" april fools day.

      Just for fun I checked the wikipedia and there are no reports of any 4/1 events in Japan. Doesn't exactly prove a negative, but it seems like 4/1 events are solely in english speaking areas or at least "nearby" english speaking areas.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_Fool's_Day

      Solar module guarantees are all pretty much the same from all manufacturers due to competition, just bad luck to have selected one that took effect 4/1.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    116. Re:Return on investment by vlm · · Score: 1

      If that ROE is reasonable, why aren't zillions of commercial solar farms popping up everywhere? Or at least co-located with the wind farms that are being installed?

      I could buy a couple acres in downtown LA for my solar farm, and sell the electricity at a nice price, but land and property tax costs would bankrupt me.

      Or

      I could buy a couple acres in the middle of nowhere, with cheap land and property tax, but I'd have no one to sell the electricity to.

      On the other hand, regardless of the number of panels on my roof, I'm paying for my lot and property tax, so the land and property tax is "free" for a SFH-scale solar power system. If I were renting my roof for a billboard or a heli-pad then there would be opportunity costs.

      As for colocated solar and wind, don't know about everywhere, but around here the game is lease out pillar mounted windmills in the middle of yer farmland for free electricity and/or a nominal rent check. Very similar to the cell tower on farmland game. The windmill doesn't really block that much sunlight, so the crops grow more or less just as well, just don't run into the tower with your tractor/harvester machine. Building a ceiling of panels over the crops isn't going to work.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    117. Re:Return on investment by GordonS3 · · Score: 1

      WTF?! I live in the UK, and I spend about £33 GBP a month (~$54 USD)! How the hell do you manage to use so much electricity?!

    118. Re:Return on investment by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

      $38K? That seems expensive to me, but I don't know how big his system is. I'm putting one my house (waiting on electrical inspection) that is 4 kW, and it cost $22k.

      Tracking down the original specs, he put in "27 Sunpower panels, each rated at 225W, for a total 6.1KW system." With various ancilliary installation features, such as the monotoring system, sounds like the price is about the same.

      Sunpower makes very high end panels, for what it's worth-- he quotes 18% efficient.

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    119. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And that bad news about solar assumes that electricity costs stay static. Is that some sort of joke?!

    120. Re:Return on investment by mx119 · · Score: 0

      Doesn't sound to me like an obvious win for solar power

      It is an obvious win, because you are failing to compound the savings.

      He can invest the savings on electricity each year and substantially increase his ROR.

      That is true if you assume that the initial investment can be separated from the return. But in a normal case, the savings each year will need to go directly to pay off the initial investment. If you are trying to find a generic solution for the masses, then this would be a more practical model.

      It is a plus from the environmental point of view, but it sounds like the best case scenario is a tie from a financial point of view. In which case he probably would have been better off just investing the $38,000.

      I would call it a good step forward for solar power, but not an obvious win.

    121. Re:Return on investment by relguj9 · · Score: 1

      Doesn't sound to me like an obvious win for solar power

      It is an obvious win, because you are failing to compound the savings.

      He can invest the savings on electricity each year and substantially increase his ROR.

      The IRR formula does NOT account for the potential re-investment of interim cash flows.

      Your argument is compelling, but it's partially incorrect.

      The savings you make on electricity goes to paying off the initial investment of 38k.

      In your scenario, by the time you would have reached the break even point, you would have invested 76k. 38k would go toward paying off the initial investment and you're left with only the returns you made on your subsequent investments.

      He's trying to calculate the ROI of just the solar power over those 12 years. Your proposed calculation would average the ROI of solar power + some other arbitrary investment with independent funding.

      There is nothing compounding about the savings from solar power until AFTER the break even point of ~12 years. At which point yes, he could re-invest the savings and they would start to compound.

    122. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I thought okay...maybe I wasn't using it correctly. Turns out I am. Dipshit. Learn to fucking read. Learn to use your brain before you comment...if you have one.

    123. Re:Return on investment by AP31R0N · · Score: 1

      There's also the less measurable benefit of boycotting worse sources of energy. It might not show up in the bank, but for some it's there all the same.

      --
      Utilizing the synergization of benchmark e-solutions to pre-workaround action items!
    124. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We use a lot of electricity. ....... Example: last month (1st May -> 31st May), the power production (I have the monitoring system all set up :) was 1,260 kWH.

      No kidding you use a lot of electricity. My (UK) bill for a 90year old, 3 bedroomed house for the last year had less than that on it! In fact, I spent ~£250 for the whole year.

    125. Re:Return on investment by danbert8 · · Score: 1

      As a civil engineer, I feel a strange need to point out that you're not technically correct... You do need to have a pump powerful enough to prevent the absolute pressure in the system from dropping below the vapor pressure of water or you get cavitation. FYI, the vapor pressure of water on a hot day (assuming CA, so we'll say 100 degrees F) is about .85 psi. Atmospheric pressure at sea level is approximately 14.7 psi. So you have approximately 13.8psi to play with which amounts to about 32 feet above which would require a pump to keep your water liquid (assuming no pressure loss in the pipe). Below that, you're correct, you just need a pump to overcome friction losses.

      --
      Yes it's an anecdote! Were you expecting original research in a Slashdot comment?
    126. Re:Return on investment by bkr1_2k · · Score: 1

      You're "less than sanguine about reality reflecting the 25 year claims"? Seriously? There is a ton of data to support those claims from old technology cells. Newer technologies are only getting better.

      If you realized that this is a grid-tied system you either failed to understand what that means or you're just arguing for the sake of argument.

      --
      "Growing old is inevitable; growing up is optional."
    127. Re:Return on investment by bkr1_2k · · Score: 1

      Yes. Plenty of companies honor lifetime warranties, and certainly they honor 25 year warranties on parts they know will last even longer than that. Especially when you factor in the point you made that most consumers won't even bother to try after a certain point because for the most part it's cheaper (in terms of the consumer's time) to buy a new one.

      --
      "Growing old is inevitable; growing up is optional."
    128. Re:Return on investment by Pikoro · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Sounds like my reasoning. I would invest in a solar power system simply to be able to regularize my power bill. Right now, it fluctuates between $100 a month and $300 a month. I would trade that all for a stead, calculable flat rate payment. Who cares about ROR. For the next 30 years, my power bill could be $120 a month. Makes planning a budget around a mortgage, 5 kids, and a spend happy wife a bit easier...

      --
      "Freedom in the USA is not the ability to do what you want. It is the ability to stop others from doing what THEY want"
    129. Re:Return on investment by Pikoro · · Score: 1

      s/stead/steady/
      s/ROR/ROI/

      --
      "Freedom in the USA is not the ability to do what you want. It is the ability to stop others from doing what THEY want"
    130. Re:Return on investment by Sandbags · · Score: 1

      The reason it does not is because the interum savings are offset by the LOSS of the investment potentiol of the original capitol.

      If I invest 30K today my return will be much higher than spending 30K today and saving $30K over 14 years.

      This also assumes the investment in solar was CASH, and not financed itself. It also doesn't take increased insurance costs, deductibles paid for storm damage, inverter replacement and battery replacement over time (they're good for 7-10 years), and other maintenance (replacing polycarbonate shields every 10-15 years, etc).

      The ENTIRE ROI calculation reasoning for solar is bunk. Especially considdering the annual installation price reduction, including lower pricing, improved generation, and increased subsidy, have actually OUTPACED the annual savings for the last 5 years.

      Also, a $300 asverage monthly power bill is quite unusual... I have a 4500sqft house in Central SC, and my power bill last month (Part of May, part of June, with 24 days over 80 degrees, 6 over 90) was $117. I keep it at 77 degrees inside during the day and 74 at night. I used just about 1000KW. My high bill is about $160, low is about $70. Gas heat (1st floor only) runs about $120 in the winter on top of the power bill, so my max bill is under $200 for all utilitiy service.

      The smaller your use, the more expensive per KW solar energy is, and the less of a savings you get in areas that use tiered billing. If you're using 2000KW a month (AVERAGE) and in a tiered utility zone, and IF they buy back your power at full metered rates (running the meter backwards instead of the wholesale buying policy now being implemented in most places using dual metering), and IF you can avoid paying any deductibles over 30 years, you'll break even in most cases at 20-25 years. If you invested the $30K now, and buy solar 10-15 years from now, your return then (given known already proven technological and cost improvements that will be hitting the market is mass scale in 10-15 years) your return is GUARANTEED to be better.

      --
      There is no contest in life for which the unprepared have the advantage.
    131. Re:Return on investment by Sandbags · · Score: 1

      1) this assumes you have enough roof space to accomodate extra panels. My roof already is only large enough to accompodate 60% of my power needs today, so I can't add more in the future...
      2) this also assumes adding the extra panel is enough additional energy to offset the efficiency drop.
      3) this also assumes your AC inverter can handle the loads, and is scalable
      4) this also assumes the panels you add 5-15 years from now have the same power ratings of your current panels, and are compatible in series.

      You also forget, it's not just the panel that gets worse with age. microscratches and yellowing of the polycarbonate protective coating are NOT included in that 80% over 25 year number, nor are routine replacement of the batteries and capacitors, and maintenance of the AC inverter.

      --
      There is no contest in life for which the unprepared have the advantage.
    132. Re:Return on investment by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      Batteries will last quite a while if you treat them right.

      Is there any reason to even include batteries as part of your system, if you are installing solar on a house that is tied to a reliable municipal grid?

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    133. Re:Return on investment by Sandbags · · Score: 1

      based on what numbers???

      Heating oil could possibly double in 10 years, so might natural gas, but everything else points to LOWER electic generation costs moving forward.

      Between smartgrid improvements, a few new nuclear plants, and a massive investment in wind (the single cheapest way to make electricity, at less than half the cost of coal), why would it be going up?

      Even over the last decade electricity has only risen from 0.10/kwh to 0.12. In my state it went from .11 to .10...

      --
      There is no contest in life for which the unprepared have the advantage.
    134. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "It is an obvious win, because you are failing to compound the savings."

      I've obviously missed something here. Aren't we also then supposed to account for the $38,000 initial investment at an average rate of return if you are going to in turn compound energy savings?

      Typical
      $38,000 (- previous years cost) @ 4% interest rate - affected energy bill for year aka the electric bill = new total to be cycled to the next year, repeat for 15 years

      Solar
      $38,000 loan interest & payback 15 year loan - reduced panel and battery efficiency - maintaintenance + energy savings

      Equipment depreciation means shit, it doesn't matter unless you sell the house. It's like buying a new furnace or heat pump, it's the savings to you, not the resale value, since it's a detraction if you have 5+ year old equipment in a home you are selling.

      Admittedly, I'm having trouble following all this, because a lot of the numbers above aren't adding up, so I'm guessing there's some other formula people are using that I'm unware of or I'm misunderstanding the explanation.

      "It is an obvious win, because you are failing to compound the savings."

      Finanically it's debateable. I think it sounds like it's break even within 15 years, which is good enough for people like me. For me, inverter costs keep from doing it. I want non-grid tie, cheap ass pure/true sine wave inverters. The phrackin gas generators (Honda, Yamaha, Kipor) inverters are cheaper than the solar stuff for crying out loud.

      Anyways, the other benefits though are not producing tons of carbon, not contributing to the base load and possibly another coal plant, reducing electrical load making electricity cheaper for the rest of us, not contributing to the energy deficit and less so the trade imbalance (esp. as more electric cars get adopted), being an earlier adopter of solar tech thus hopefully making future solar tech more affordable and better for us masses, being insulated against price changes and spikes, always knowing he has a base power supply (akin to insulated from energy price spikes) to maintain a standard of living, not relying on a centralized system, and having reliable energy akin to having a generator (say a very good backup generator starts at $3k, inverter type 3000W).

    135. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When I took Power Engineering as a course in Electrical Engineering we ran several power line transmission calculations of large power lines. When we did these it was always amazing finding that the large transmission lines were like 97-98% efficient. I will say that loss can be enormous but not quite to the level you seem to complaining about. I do agree that putting power generation in another state that may not be any better off when it comes to water problems seems to idiot but nobody is adding that calculation into the equation because water is "free" or too cheap to matter because we aren't paying the replacement cost.

    136. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      7.8%? After 16 years the internal rate of return(IRR) is 2.9%. You can get 3% in a bank, so assuming it lasts 16 years he's breaking even after that time.(vs shoving money in the bank) 19 years it's 4.4%, 20 years it's 4.8%... So how long does a solar array last, anyway? And how long is the warranty on them? If they last 20 years that's cool but if the warranty goes away after 10 years that's probably a pretty bad deal.

      I evaluated them for my house in this manner, the payback period(breakeven) taking into account the time value of money was about 20 years... I didn't choose to go with it.

    137. Re:Return on investment by coolsteve · · Score: 1

      He can invest the savings on electricity each year and substantially increase his ROR.

      Wait, but if he just took the $38400 and put it in a savings account/mutual fund that has a yield of 1% a year, wouldn't that be a better way to invest his money?

      I don't think that it's an obvious win at all... I would agree that it helps the environment, and helps invest in the technology, but not financial win yet.

    138. Re:Return on investment by Sandbags · · Score: 1

      That is strictly for crystaline based panels, which are both pricier and considered "old hat" technology. Thin films last 10-12 years, and deplete to about 70% in that timeframe. They're a lot cheaper, but not in the long term. They're poular because they're more profitable to make, and the subsidy applies either way. Don;t count on these subsidies to last long however...

      --
      There is no contest in life for which the unprepared have the advantage.
    139. Re:Return on investment by Sandbags · · Score: 1

      and that's just for the PANELS.

      degredation in the qwuality of the polycarbonate protective layer mounted above the panel (part of the box frame, not technically paret of the panel and not covered by the waranty) yellows over time, and is also subject to microscratches from particles thrown at it by the wind. Over 10-15 years, 10-20% of the light getting to the panel also won't be. If you don't believe me, look at the headlight covers on a 10 year old car...

      You also have to account for battery/capacitor degredation (they need to be replaced every 10 years or so). Also the AC inverter only has a general 10-15 year lifespan. These are maintenance costs that the solar company usually won;t disclose except in fine print, and they're not warantied.

      Then there's the insurance costs. Sure, you might only PAY $36K for solar panels, but they cost $80K. (subsidies and discounts apply, but do NOT count towards repair/replacement). Therefor, your insurance company sees this as a $80K valuation improvement. For a $300K home, that's a 25% increase in home value, and one that's highly suceptible to storm damage, so the insurance hike will either be 30-40% anually, or the coverage will be pathetic. (high deductibles and pro-rated replacement cost). I checked into it 4 years ago. Adding $70K in solar panels to my 200K home was going to add $800 a year to my insurance costs, with a $7500 deductible on the panels... We get several hail storms a year here...

      --
      There is no contest in life for which the unprepared have the advantage.
    140. Re:Return on investment by j-beda · · Score: 1

      Additionally, one needs to pay taxes on investment gains, while the money you don't spend on electricity is essentially a tax-free income.

    141. Re:Return on investment by yabos · · Score: 1

      We have one(my dad installs them). He lives in California so the need for heating is pretty low. Most likely it wouldn't run in heating mode very often. The pump for our earth loop is 1/2 HP. I can't see his solar panels needing a very big pump. Our 1/2 HP pump pumps fluid hundreds of feet down/up since we have a vertical earth loop. Since it's water, it doesn't take much to get it to move since the hydrogen bonds in the water going up helps pull water going down(plus gravity).

    142. Re:Return on investment by yabos · · Score: 1

      Most residential heat pumps can have what's called a desuperheater. Compressors produce "super heat" which is excess heat that can be taken off through a small heat exchanger. We use this to heat about 50% of our hot water in the house. The amount of heat you can get is generally not a lot and it only works when the heat pump is running. Averaging 50% of hour heated water for free is a pretty good deal though.

    143. Re:Return on investment by BikeHelmet · · Score: 1

      I was jesting - but if they companies can find an excuse to charge more, don't you think they will? ;)

      Where I live it went from 0.04/kwh to 0.08/kwh. :/

      I expect it to go up even more.

    144. Re:Return on investment by Anonym1ty · · Score: 1

      When did they move Fools' Day to 4 January? :P

    145. Re:Return on investment by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      1. Move out of the Doghouse.
      2. See above.
      3. Plan ahead.
      4. Most are.

    146. Re:Return on investment by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      You need to do your price history in "constant dollars" for it to make any sense. Bread costs 5X more now than it did in 1968, gold > 20X.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    147. Re:Return on investment by dwywit · · Score: 1
      The key word is reliable. Regulations around here won't allow batteries in a grid-tie system, so when (not if) the grid goes down, you're still stuck with all the usual problems of grid failure.

      The state govt here is reaping the benefits of years of extracting the profits from the then state-owned monopoly electricity supplier, instead of investing said profits back into maintenance and upgrades, all to balance their otherwise red-inked budget. I hear of outages almost daily - the local radio station reports them. Now that the industry is deregulated, those profits have decreased sharply and there's nothing to invest. I'm just glad I'm off-grid.

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    148. Re:Return on investment by bhiestand · · Score: 1

      He wins big if electricity costs skyrockets and solar/alternate energy tech stagnates. Those are unlikely to both occur. He loses if power gets cheap or solar/alternate energy tech has some rapid advances.

      He has essentially exchanged his exposure to energy price fluctuations for host of new risks.

      Written like a man who knows his investing. I would, however, disagree with your use of the word "loses". Ignoring external costs, can we agree that the only way he loses is if the system either fails to perform to spec or energy prices actually fall significantly in real dollars?

      My point is that he doesn't lose if newer technologies come out. Surely, waiting a few years and buying a cheaper system that does the same thing will yield a better ROI, but that will not reduce his ROI. Of course, as photovoltaic prices come down, the government will remove subsidies and allow the market to settle things on its own, so there are some risks in waiting as well.

      Overall, I don't really see a likely scenario for him actually LOSING in this investment. Certainly he could yield better returns elsewhere (especially energy efficiency and reducing consumption), but this isn't particularly risky, IMO.

      --
      SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling
    149. Re:Return on investment by Sandbags · · Score: 1

      1: I had a single floor 3bd with over 1800sqft under the roof, a flat roofline, and a southern exposure. Mostly considered an "ideal" roofline by BP's solar rep who came by to survey. unfurtunately, that's just not enough roof to support the number of panels I needed.
      2: that's about cost, not space... Does the cost of a new panel offset the efficieny lost by the existing collection of panels...
      3: Most are not, and planning ahead for efficiny losses using a scalable inverter, and scalable rooftop grid, is an extreme added expense. not to mention the labor fees associated with augmenting the install.
      4: Most are NOT. Panels made 10 years ago do NOT output the same power characteristics of panels offered today. You can get replacement "additional" panels of your old type, but at replacement cost, which is out of scale with retail. New panels output more energy per sqft and may/may not integrate with your existing monitoring controlls. The longer you go in time, the less likely new planels can be simply added without swaping all of them out, or without changing multiple other compnents, making #2 harder to justify.

      --
      There is no contest in life for which the unprepared have the advantage.
    150. Re:Return on investment by Sandbags · · Score: 1

      if you're paying 0.08, you;re getting a bargin... It went from 4 to 8 most likely because your small coop either couldn't compete and merged with a larger organization, or they simply raised prices to profit more seeing the competition charging more.

      deregualtion of the grid in many places caused the little guys to charge more since wholesale prices are actually higher than 0.04.

      --
      There is no contest in life for which the unprepared have the advantage.
    151. Re:Return on investment by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      1. That much space could generate 18,000 watts, more or less. Maybe you should stop staging competitions between collections of air-conditioners and space-heaters.

      2. So do the math. I'll wait.

      3. I'd love to see your evidence for it being an "extreme added expense". As for the labor fees, please - anyone who knows how to hold a screwdriver would be capable of adding a panel to a pre-existing system. If you're paying for it, you're doing it wrong.

      4. I don't see how. Solar panels output direct current. Both the voltage and the amperage are variable, depending on temperature and illumination, so the regulators have to be able to handle a fairly wide margin of input current. Even if the output of your new panels is significantly different, the worst that should happen is that the output voltage gets pulled down and you lose some efficiency. If you have some info that I'm not privy to, I'd appreciate you explaining it in further detail.

    152. Re:Return on investment by Loki_1929 · · Score: 1

      That 2-3% loss is probably over a given line of distance X. You're not accounting for all the transformers, stations, substations, etc that the power is needlessly going through because California (more specifically, the citizens of California) won't allow much local power generation at all.

      Besides, even if it were only 2-3% of the total imported power for California, it would still amount to 1,530GWh - 2,300GWh in 2008. With that in mind, there's always this: "California also used to have another nuclear power plant, the Rancho Seco Nuclear Generating Station, which produced more than 900 MW. However, it was shut down, and replaced with a solar power plant that produces less than 4 MW." (http://www.city-journal.org/2008/18_2_californias_environmentalism.html)

      --
      -- "Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
    153. Re:Return on investment by Rogerborg · · Score: 1

      Plenty of companies honor lifetime warranties

      Can you provide any evidence of, hmmm, three out of these "plenty" of companies making good on a 25+ year claim?

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    154. Re:Return on investment by illumin8 · · Score: 1

      $36k invested at 5% for 12 years returns $68,000.
      $3000/year invested each year at 5% for 12 years returns $47,000

      With option A, he still had to pay $36,000 in electricity payments as well. He doesn't get a lot more, he gets a lot less.

      You forgot to subtract initial $36,000 investment from option B. That makes it much less worthwhile than just investing the money to begin with.

      So, he still gets a lot more by investing his money rather than buying a Solar power system.

      --
      "When the president does it, that means it's not illegal." - Richard M. Nixon
    155. Re:Return on investment by Ironsides · · Score: 1

      Actually, that 2-3% is for the entire US Grid as a whole, including all the transformers, stations, substations, etc. The entire grid has an efficiency of close to 98%. However, California probably has one of the less efficient sections due to having to run the electricity in from farther out as you say.

      --
      Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
    156. Re:Return on investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      thanks for that input.

      You certainly seem like the average american citizen. Go F yourself.

  2. Solar panel longevity by royallthefourth · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So maybe it'll pay for itself in 12 years, but how long before those panels need to be replaced? That's what we really need to know in order to decide if he's actually saving money.

    1. Re:Solar panel longevity by sexconker · · Score: 2, Interesting

      They lose efficiency over time, and will never offset his initial costs before needing to be replaced.

      Oh, and don't forget maintenance (they get dusty).

    2. Re:Solar panel longevity by h4rr4r · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      bullshit.
      The panels will last 25+ years and though they will lose capacity they will offset his costs in ~10 years.

    3. Re:Solar panel longevity by eldavojohn · · Score: 2, Informative

      So maybe it'll pay for itself in 12 years, but how long before those panels need to be replaced? That's what we really need to know in order to decide if he's actually saving money.

      Well if you want to be a financial stickler, you might want to factor in the standard rate of inflation if it's going to be 12 years. The funny thing is that inflation has been going down in the past three months according to this site. But you need to remember the pert formula and assume that most of the time you're looking at an average of what about 3% inflation per year? On your original investment of $3800, right? So that's like a 42% increase in the value of that 2008 money assuming inflation continues at an expected yearly rate and a bank will give you that return.

      --
      My work here is dung.
    4. Re:Solar panel longevity by Scutter · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I believe the $38,000 cost was for the entire conversion. I doubt replacement panels would cost that much. I think you're right that it would significantly extend the ROI, though. I think 12 years is optimistic.

      --

      "Tell me doctor, with all of your defenses, are there any provisions for an attack by killer bees?"
    5. Re:Solar panel longevity by hack++slash · · Score: 1

      I have a 1983 Kyocera 30 watt panel which still gives me an accurately measured 24 watts in mid summer, mid day sunlight, 80% of it's original rating after 25+ years is pretty good I think.

      --
      To do something right, you often have to roll up your sleeves and get busy.
    6. Re:Solar panel longevity by TooMuchToDo · · Score: 1

      Most panels carry 25-50 year warranties (at least). If the system lasts 50 years, and outputs zero power after those 50 years, it depreciates at the rate of $760 a year. And hopefully, the price of solar panels/film will decrease every year (NanoSolar hitting the $1/watt price point within the last 12 months doesn't hurt).

    7. Re:Solar panel longevity by FrostedWheat · · Score: 1

      Unless your living on Mars or in the Sahara, dust isn't a problem.

    8. Re:Solar panel longevity by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most panels carry 25-50 year warranties (at least)

      Do you expect the companies that put these out to be around for 50 years?

    9. Re:Solar panel longevity by thetoadwarrior · · Score: 1

      I had neighbour that had solar panels back since at least the late 80's and he had them up until the turn of the century (I moved, he may still have the originals) and aside from washing them, I don't think I've ever seen him do anything to them. I can only imagine the technology has gotten better and no doubt take up much less room than his did.

    10. Re:Solar panel longevity by thetoadwarrior · · Score: 1

      They probably will be. Some companies have been doing for decades already and they're only getting more popular.

    11. Re:Solar panel longevity by 32771 · · Score: 1

      Ever thought about pollen, and the plain old dirt (i.e. soot) that falls with the rain.

      --
      Je me souviens.
    12. Re:Solar panel longevity by ID000001 · · Score: 1

      If a 25 year old technology still get us 80% after 25 years, then it would be safe to assume his set up will have less deprecation.

    13. Re:Solar panel longevity by geekoid · · Score: 1

      20-25 years.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    14. Re:Solar panel longevity by alienzed · · Score: 1

      But of course this isn't only about money, but purely renewable energy. This man basically isn't polluting anymore.

      --
      Never say never. Ah!! I did it again!
    15. Re:Solar panel longevity by royallthefourth · · Score: 1

      But of course this isn't only about money, but purely renewable energy. This man basically isn't polluting anymore.

      That's certainly the truth. If this is going to save me money, however, I'll jump on the bandwagon sooner rather than later. I can't be the only one that feels this way.

    16. Re:Solar panel longevity by GooberToo · · Score: 1

      Bullshit!

      Learn some basic math. His basic ROI is almost 13 years. In reality he'll be lucky to get a ROI in 15 years and it could very well push to 20 years or more depending on maintenance and loss of efficiency over the years. And all that assumes, on average, he'll get at least as much sun in the following 20 years as this last year. And don't forget, those cells can lose as much as 50% efficiency in just ten years. If true, assuming zero maintenance costs, his ROI is suddenly pushed to over 16 years, assuming he encounters no other issues.

      So while the panels may last 25+ years, their loss of efficiency makes them obsolete in less than is ever possible with his ROI.

    17. Re:Solar panel longevity by Space+cowboy · · Score: 1

      Ever heard of a hose ?

      Last year I got on a step-ladder and sprayed the panels with a hose. It makes no noticeable difference (which is to say that I happen to agree with the grandparent, dust isn't a problem), but it made them look cleaner, and it made me feel better :)

      Simon

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    18. Re:Solar panel longevity by sexconker · · Score: 1

      Uh. maybe you're one of the typical internet neourbanites, but a lot of people live in areas where dust (actual dust, as well as sand, dirt, debris from plants, etc) is a problem.

    19. Re:Solar panel longevity by sexconker · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If it's blocking light, it is making a difference.
      If you can see the dust, it's a noticeable difference.
      If it's noticeable to your eye, it's definitely affecting the efficiency of the panel.

      Your story would have been much better if you had suggested rain instead of a hose.

    20. Re:Solar panel longevity by ArsonSmith · · Score: 1

      about 5 years ago my AC broke down after 27 years of service. The new AC has a 10 year warranty and the installer pretty much laughed at me when I asked if I could hope to get the same length of service out of my new high end AC unit.

      --
      Paying taxes to buy civilization is like paying a hooker to buy love.
    21. Re:Solar panel longevity by h4rr4r · · Score: 2, Informative

      Learn to read. His cells are warranted for 30 years with a guarantee that they will output 80% of rated at hat power. This 50% drop in 10 years was never true. You are also not factoring in the almost assured rise in electrical costs.

    22. Re:Solar panel longevity by sexconker · · Score: 1

      25-50 year warranties my ass.

      If the company exists by then, and if the warranty is honored, you'll be stuck into the whole "to replace it under warranty we have to verify the problem, we have to remove the old panels, we have to install the new panels, and you get to pay us for the labor" bullshit.

      As for your rate of depreciation, you're assuming a linear rate, ending at 50 years exactly, AND you're ignoring the fact that the panels, once installed, have very little value. You can't sell them to your neighbor. They cost tens of thousands of dollars and get you maybe a grand or two each year. They serve no other purpose.

      When calculating the depreciation of something, you take into account the cost and the resale value. You don't say your car has depreciated less because it took you so many places - that's the point of the car. You don't say panels have depreciated less because you're selling power back to electric company - that's the point of the panels.

      What you're calculating is something else entirely. The point of the panels is to recoup their own cost, and then make a profit.

      Let's say the panels DO last 50 years, and decline linearly.

      The guy saved $3000 in one year.
      Expand that to saving $0 in the 51st year.
      Average savings over 50 years = $1500 per year.
      Total savings over 50 years = $75000.
      Initial cost = $38000.

      Gain after 50 years = $37000 (97.4%).
      Or an APY of 1.37%

      This is assuming the boldest of claims from the manufacturer, no maintenance fees, and a stable rate for selling electricity back to the grid.

      With the shitty economy of today, you can invest your money in much better ways. A risk-free (if the FDIC goes under, we've got bigger issues) CD will yield, in today's shitty economy, at least 1.5%, and your money is locked away only for a year. Lock it away for 2 years and you'll get 1.75% or 2.00%. Lock it away for 5 or more years and have an investment over $10,000 to work with? You could get much more.

      Oh, and this is all tax-deferred.

      There are also government bonds, retirement accounts (IRA, ROTH IRA, etc) which are tax deferred/exempt, and earn even more.

      The bottom line is that, even assuming the best, even in this economy, this is a dumb, dumb investment. Less than 2 years ago you could get CDs at 5% or higher.

    23. Re:Solar panel longevity by sexconker · · Score: 1

      I did the math for some other idiot, assuming no output on the 51st year, an average output over 50 years of 50% of what he's getting now.

      He gets an APY of 1.37%. Pitiful.

      Assured rise in electrical costs?
      What about the assured decrease in payouts for the people who sell back to the grid?

      In just 5 years, there will be more in his area selling back more electricity to the grid more efficiently than his gear can handle. And he has to keep his shit running for at least another 10 years past that point just to break even.

      Then he has to shell out again for new panels?

    24. Re:Solar panel longevity by retiredtwice · · Score: 1

      Hi

      Panels in general have a 20 year guarantee for something like 85% retained efficiency and seem to be lasting 30 years or so.

      I put a 3.3KW system (a little over half of his) in about 14 months ago. Cost about 20K after rebates.

      But I am on the "time of day" metering even though we are home. What that does is sell the KW back to PG&E at the higher afternoon rate when the sun is at its best and we don't use the oven or energy intense appliances during the afternoon.

      My house is in Los Altos which is about 5 miles from Sunnyvale. It is about 3700 sq ft (including detached workshop) and my "true up" bill from PG&E was 157$ for the entire year. I seem to use much less electricity than he does for some reason. I sized it to cover about 1/2 of my usage but about 2/3 of the cost (results from the time of day metering). Seemed to work out quite well. My calculated payback was about 12 years and I included some inflation in that as well as interest on the money had I put it in savings instead of spending it. It would appear that the 12 years or so is going to be pretty accurate (I did not predict a rise in electric rates which allows the calculation to be conservative).

      One benefit of the solar is that the panels cover the south facing roof with an airspace underneath so the shading effect of the panels keeps the house noticeably cooler. I was planning on putting in central air but am foregoing those plans as the house stays cool enough now. (small air conditioner in one room).

      I would also do it again but would put in a larger system just so I could say I generate more than I use.

      --
      I get it now. If you disagree with the majority on /., you are a troll.
    25. Re:Solar panel longevity by dwywit · · Score: 2, Informative
      Just cherry-picking here - BP have a huge investment in the Solar PV industry, and I think they'll be around for a while. One of my 80 watt panels (11 years' warranty left) developed some corrosion on one of the junctions. I took a photo of it, sent it to them with the serial number, and a new panel was installed within a week. Cost to me? $0

      Like everything else, you get what you pay for.

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    26. Re:Solar panel longevity by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      Not much of an issue unless you live in the middle of an industrial park. I installed some sky-lights 2 year ago, and have only had to clean them once since then. The rain washes them off quite nicely. The biggest problem I could see for my area with solar panels would be accumulation of snow in the winter time, but even that wouldn't be an insurmountable problem.

    27. Re:Solar panel longevity by sjames · · Score: 1

      According to the first article in the series, the panels are warranted to be at 90% after 12 years and 80% after 25. So it looks like over a decade of free power after the system pays for itself. Note that the payoff comes sooner in the near certain case that electricity goes up in price over the next decade.

      After they do lose too much efficiency, he can re-use most of the installation (just replace the panels). He may well be able to replace the panels with fewer more efficient and cheaper panels at that time OR add another inverter.

    28. Re:Solar panel longevity by Space+cowboy · · Score: 1

      [sigh] Solar panels don't produce linear output from their solar absorption. They quickly ramp up to a maximum saturated level, and stay there as solar illumination increases (in fact too much solar radiation will decrease the efficiency due to over-heating). Decreasing the illumination eventually lowers the output (of course) but dust makes little-to-no difference. I knew that intellectually, but it didn't stop me from washing the panels :)

      I have power-monitoring on my own systems. Here is the link to the graph of power-produced for the week within which the panels were washed. Can you tell me which of those days the panels were washed ? I certainly couldn't distinguish it, and I know the day (I was curious, so I recorded it).

      In the graph, the blue line is the DC power measurement from the panels themselves. Notice the rapid ramp-up, negative effect due to heating, and rapid decrease to zero once the saturation-point can't be maintained.

      Simon

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    29. Re:Solar panel longevity by bkr1_2k · · Score: 1

      Which is exactly why solar panels haven't really taken off. People believe the hype that they cost more than they can return so they aren't worth it. Fact is there is far more at stake than just the dollar but people who worry about the dollar (IE people with money to lose by large scale consumer conversion to solar or wind) focus on the easy math and discount the more technical numbers and true value of these systems. It's easy to see, even here on slashdot, that some people have something against solar, for whatever their reasons.

      It's also important to note that it isn't a magic bullet. That's the other fallacy that seems to be constantly spread. One size doesn't fit all and there is no single solution that works everywhere all the time. Solar panels aren't going to do as well in Seattle as they do in LA. Wind isn't going to do as well in NYC as it will in Nebraska. Simple hybrid solutions are the best we can come up with and expect to make any real gains.

      --
      "Growing old is inevitable; growing up is optional."
    30. Re:Solar panel longevity by sexconker · · Score: 1

      Gee, so you're telling me all those "breakthroughs" over the last decade about solar panels becoming more efficient and using more of the light that this them are... bullshit? I'm shocked.

      So, you've got inefficient panels, were disappointed with their output, and decided to wash them on about day 20 after being installed?

      A few weeks worth of dust is nothing compared to the normal day-to-day variations.

      We're talking about years of dust. Debris. Bird shit. Snow.

    31. Re:Solar panel longevity by GooberToo · · Score: 1

      WTF?! You can't even return a valid answer. The 13 years, which is still greater than you initial answer (~10 years) assumes 100% efficiency.

      Secondly, that 50% number is thrown around by the people who actually make them. And within the last 45 days, I've had a conversation with an engineer who does commercial planning and installation who also through out that number in a passing conversation. So I have no idea what idiots are moding your informative or where you get off believing your failed second grade math skills are correct.

      You need to learn the difference between a "guarantee" and the real world. Secondly, have you actually read the fine print? I know I haven't. I seriously doubt those cells can maintain that efficiency over that span.They may very well be willing to trade sales now for exchanges from the few 10-20 years down the road that realize their cells are far below the guarantee levels. In short, stop confusing fact with what is very likely unsubstantiated marketing.

      Long story short, you have nothing to provide here, all the information you offered is wrong, and anyone who modded you informative is an idiot.

    32. Re:Solar panel longevity by borizz · · Score: 1

      Can I play? I think the 20th.

    33. Re:Solar panel longevity by Space+cowboy · · Score: 1
      To take these point-by-point:

      Gee, so you're telling me all those "breakthroughs" over the last decade about solar panels becoming more efficient and using more of the light that this them are... bullshit? I'm shocked.

      No. Those are two entirely different things. My point was that saturation to a given efficiency happens quickly. That's not to say that higher efficiencies can't be achieved by better science, better procedures, or simply more efficient chemical interactions being discovered.

      Basically, the two things you're trying to conflate aren't even vaguely related.

      So, you've got inefficient panels, were disappointed with their output, and decided to wash them on about day 20 after being installed?

      The panels are pretty damn efficient - they were the best available (by BP) at the time I bought them. My point is that your point is bullshit. I'm actually very happy with the panels - as I detail above, my bill dropped from a high of $1000/month last year to $49 for May (the last month). That's a significant gain.

      A few weeks worth of dust is nothing compared to the normal day-to-day variations. We're talking about years of dust. Debris. Bird shit. Snow.

      No, actually, you weren't talking about that. Your actual quote was "If it's blocking light, it is making a difference. If you can see the dust, it's a noticeable difference". Clearly, you're wrong. The hard data proves this.

      For what it's worth, the graph above is 6 months in, the dust in question was significant (actually from a neighbouring house-extension project), and the date of the washing was the 19th (that scale is day-of-month, not days-into-the-project). As you can clearly see, there was no effect. None. Not even a little bit.

      So, just to belabour the point. You were totally, utterly, unequivocally and entirely wrong.

      Just saying
      Simon

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    34. Re:Solar panel longevity by sexconker · · Score: 1

      "My point was that saturation to a given efficiency happens quickly."

      You know that doesn't even make sense, right?
      Saturation to efficiency?

      $1000 / month last year?
      What month was that? Let's assume January.
      6 months in? You've had the panels, at the earliest, since July of last year.
      At the latest, the graph you provided is for June.

      So you've had your panels for 6 - 12 months.

      You don't know shit about how they degrade over time, get dusty/dirty, and vary day-to-day.

      You got the best panels available as of 6-12 months ago, and are claiming that dust doesn't affect them? Gee, you might want to sell those panels to NASA."

      Just read the fucking manual for your panels.
      It recommends cleaning them periodically.

    35. Re:Solar panel longevity by Space+cowboy · · Score: 1
      My apologies, I hadn't realised you were impaired with regard to reading comprehension. Let me try and state it more plainly:

      A solar panel has an efficiency rating - or (said differently) it converts solar energy into electrical energy at a given rate. For example, an efficiency of 30% means that 30% of the incident solar energy will appear as electrical energy on the outputs.

      Production saturation is reached once the panel attains that conversion efficiency. Now I know that's lots of big words, so let me try and dumb it down for you... Let's represent 100% efficiency as:

      [x][x][x][x][x][x][x][x][x][x]

      ... where each [x] represents 10%. Now if a solar panel is rated at 30% efficiency, it will never produce more than that, so it would look like

      [x][x][x]

      Do you see how I did that ? Ok, I'll tell you: If each [x] is 10%, then we have to use 3 of them to get 30%, and that looks like the [x][x][x] above.

      Still with me ? Good. I know, it's hard, but stick with it. I'm sure you'll follow this eventually... So, now this is a difficult concept... The speed with which you attain this conversion-efficiency is not a function of that efficiency.

      Oh, you're looking puzzled again. I get it - words of more than a syllable (there I go again) or two confuse you. Let's try and dumb it down to your level again...

      I want you to imagine that you're holding onto a rope, about 20 feet above a cesspit. Now, I know you like wallowing in shit, so there's only 2 things you're going to do here - you could climb down the rope and get yourself nice and comfy in the cesspit, or you could just let go and splash down into all that shit - I know you'd like that.

      Now, you're asking yourself, "what is this shit" ? The point is the shit doesn't care how fast you got there, you're still covered in shit whether you climbed down into the cesspit, or whether you (and we both know this is what you'd do) just let go. The shit here is the efficiency - you're going to hit the shit, and the shit will envelop you, but you won't get any further. How fast you hit the shit is up to you, but it's not relevant to hitting that shit. Shit just happens.

      So, after all that, I hope you now understand that saturation to an efficiency point is indeed a valid statement.

      Shit. And here we come full-circle. Because I did read the manuals for the panels, and it says "Your panels are designed and guaranteed to give 80% efficiency 20 years after deployment, with minimal maintenance". It also says that washing them is only for "cosmetic purposes" unless there is "significant accrual of material such that the underlying blue color (sic) cannot be discerned".

      So, again, to belabour the point: When you said "If it's blocking light, it is making a difference. If you can see the dust, it's a noticeable difference", you were totally, utterly, unequivocally and entirely wrong. Proven by the data in the graph. Backed up by the manual. And verified by the accounts of people on this very site who have 20-year-old panels performing as-expected at ~80% of their initial rating.

      Simon.

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    36. Re:Solar panel longevity by sexconker · · Score: 1

      Your sentence made no sense.
      You can't saturate to an efficiency.

      Saturation happens quickly BECAUSE of the (in)efficiency, silly! It's not a target, it's not a capacity, it's a limiting quality. Your statement made no sense. It's like saying something tastes purple.

      As for all yoru other shit:
      If your panels' manual says that, then it's lying, or you have magic panels. Every manufacturer recommends washing them.

      You have had your panels 1 year tops. You have a claim on a box that they will produce 80% of their peak output in 19 more years. That's not fucking proof or evidence, dude, that's a claim on a box. You basically have no experience with panels aging or getting dirty. We know for a fact that their output dwindles significantly, and we know for a fact that blocking light affects them.

      Why do you feel the need to defend your investment so vehemently? Buyer's remorse? There's no way in hell that was a wise investment (I've shown elsewhere with simple fucking math that you'd be better served putting money into a CD or retirement account) money-wise.

      If your manufacturer really says washing them is for cosmetic purposes only, then well, they're just as dumb as you. What are you going to do when it snows? When there's a layer of ash from a fire? When your panels are covered in bird shit? When you've got 10 years worth of dust dirt and debris?

      You're going to clean your panels.
      And you'll claim you're doing it just for cosmetic reasons. You'll tell yourself it doesn't make a difference. But you fucking know it does, and you'll be watching that graph like a madman. You'll look up weather history to see how sunny it was in the past as you compare graphs. You'll go outside and look to see if there's any part of your panels in the shade or not.

      Will you get to the point where you climb the roof with a bottle of Windex and a roll of paper towels? Will you worry about mineral deposits from all the hose water you sprayed on the panels?

      Only time will tell!

  3. Panel Degradation by Lead+Butthead · · Score: 0, Redundant

    Doesn't the panels degrade over time, and produces less electricity as they age?

    --
    ELOI, ELOI, LAMA SABACHTHANI!?
    1. Re:Panel Degradation by clone53421 · · Score: 1

      Personally, I'm guessing his total savings will asymptotically approach the $38,000 that he initially sunk into the project...

      --
      Alexander Peter Kristopeit bought his basement from his mommy for one dollar.
    2. Re:Panel Degradation by sexconker · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Yup. Joke's on him.
      And the taxpayers who subsidized whatever government rebates/discounts/tax credits he got for "going green".

  4. Time value of money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The whole solar argument still has to grapple with its high up front costs. Doing calculations on money savings with such a long time to "break even" means that you need to take into account the time value of money. Even using a small interest rate such as 4.5% as an example (which is the cost of capital of a bank's home equity loan that I saw advertised recently near my house) means that he won't break even in over 19 years. Over 50% longer than the statistic the summary uses.

    1. Re:Time value of money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not only that but solar panels degrade over time. So every day you are saving a little less. Eventually they fail altogether which is what I imagine will happen in this case. I seriously doubt he will get close to breaking even.

      With that said, I'm happy that some people are willing to waste money so that the technology can be improved. Eventually it may be cheap enough and reliable enough for us poor peons.

    2. Re:Time value of money by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      Panels these days put out 80% of rated power at 25 years, so I bet he will break even just fine.

    3. Re:Time value of money by syphax · · Score: 1

      Problem solved.

      And your calculation doesn't take into account increases in energy prices. How much will electricity prices increase over the next 20 years? Who knows? There are lots of reasons to expect higher prices, though. But solar avoids that- if one finances solar with fixed interest on your loan, congratulations, it's a great hedge on energy price variability.

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    4. Re:Time value of money by zippthorne · · Score: 5, Interesting

      At the moment, though, you have to factor in the fact that we're about to hit some mondo inflation due to the money Obama's been printing. So, it's actually a good idea right now to get into things that aren't pegged to the actual dollars. This guy is basically buying his electricity up front before his $40k is worthless.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    5. Re:Time value of money by SquirrelsUnite · · Score: 1

      But if you do this kind of calculation it doesn't matter how long it takes to "break even". If he's even $1 up it's a good investment, since he could finance the whole thing by taking a loan and he'd be better off at every point in time.

    6. Re:Time value of money by beavioso · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Why pin the impending inflation on Obama? The $700 Billion TARP program started under Bush, and some nice legislation (Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act) got passed during Clinton that may be one of the underlying causes of this housing mess. Some political nerds and/or historians may dig up even more reasons that we're in this mess, but the point is that they're just different sides of the same coin. Why blame one guy, when the whole system is at fault?

    7. Re:Time value of money by mugnyte · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Except that we're not. Seriously off-topic, but inflation isn't unpredictable. Right now, the double-digit unemployment and positive savings rate we have suggests people are hording their cash, not shopping with abandon.

        As soon as any of the indicators go up (these are pretty reliable predictors of activity), the FED simply filters the money out of the banks, rates go up for daily business paper and money is more scarce.

        It's been managed this way for 3 decades, and fairly stable since 1983. Check for yourself.

    8. Re:Time value of money by ArsonSmith · · Score: 1

      So, lets say you're taking out a lone and have a payment of $300 a mo. Your new solar system reduces your electric bill by $300 a mo. You are paying no more than you would have prior. and in 12 years you will suddenly have another $300 a month of disposable income until the 25-30 year warranty wears out.

      If you take out a loan at $300 a month and invest in in the stock market and you get a return average of $500, but yet you are losing $100 a month.

      --
      Paying taxes to buy civilization is like paying a hooker to buy love.
    9. Re:Time value of money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The $700 Billion TARP program started under Bush

      True. And including pork and financing, it was probably about a trillion bucks.

      Then Obama and Congress passed a "stimulus" bill to the tune of about a trillion bucks.

      Then the Fed printed another trillion bucks.

      This was all within a few months!

      Now Obama wants to cap-and-tax carbon, which will hugely drive up the cost of energy; he wants to nationalize 20% of the economy, i.e. health care, which WILL drive prices up (he says otherwise, but when has a government program SAVED money compared to the private sector? never). The national debt is huge and growing. The big fear is that, at some point in the near future, the government will start having to print trillions more money to try to pay off the debt, and this will kick in a vicious cycle that will turn into runaway hyperinflation.

      Please explain why the USA is immune to hyperinflation. How is the USA different from all the countries that actually have had hyperinflation? This isn't some fantasy, it is something that has happened, many times, in recent history. What's so special about the USA that it can't happen?

    10. Re:Time value of money by sjames · · Score: 1

      Even if it did take that long, he would have several years to enjoy his "free" electricity before needing to replace the panels. You're also assuming that the cost of electricity won't go up at all in 19 years.

    11. Re:Time value of money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Fine, Obama, Bush, et al. then. The point is that if the money is soon to lose value, it's a good idea to have stuff even if you have to pay a bit of a premium to have it.

      In the case of solar panels, the "stuff" you're buying is kWh. The panels pay it in installments, which is good, because that's how you're going to need it anyway.

    12. Re:Time value of money by schmiddy · · Score: 1

      A little more about predicting inflation:

      First of all, if you want to know what the markets "expect" inflation to be 10 years down the line, take a look at e.g. the spreads between 10 year fixed rates Treasuries and inflation-protected TIPS (source). The link from the parent only shows *current* and *past* inflation information, which doesn't help you get a feel for the future one bit. (2)

      Second of all, if you're convinced that inflation is going to get out of hand down the road thanks to the Fed's printing presses, there are more elegant ways of making that bet than installing your own solar panels. Some ideas:

      • Buying commodities denominated in dollars, such as oil, gold, silver, or baskets of commodities. When the dollar's purchasing power goes down (i.e. inflation), the value of your holdings will go up(1).
      • Invest directly in TIPS. ETFs again offer an attractive way to do this (e.g. ticker TIP) .
      • A variety of more exotic ways to bet against the value of US treasuries, and hence bet on inflation, are discussed here.

      (1) Be careful buying e.g. shares of USO due to persistent contango in the oil markets, and the inherent problems in using futures contract rolling to attempt to mimic the spot price of oil. GLD does an admirable job of tracking the spot price of gold since it's holding physical gold in its vault, but the gold market is full of gold bugs, doomsdayers, etc. driving up the price and contributing to volatility.

      (2) And the grandparent's post is even worse -- needless fearmongering with no substance to back it up.

      --
      http://cltracker.net -- powerful craigslist multi-city search
    13. Re:Time value of money by BeerCur · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It can and has been argued that the Fed's "printing" of money is simply replacing the money that was lost in the economy. This additional cash has a negligible impact on the total availability of money in the economy, therefore has caused little inflationary pressure and at least in the near term will not.

      The egregious aspect is that the average Joe lost a bundle in 401K's and other investments, but only a little bit of the Tarp, or the extra cash being printed is being trickled down to them. By and large it's going to the banks and Wall Street entities, to keep them solvent. They were the main culprits, guided by greed, that lead to the economic melt down, and they got a bail out and the average person is financing it through their economic losses.

      --
      It's not what your Sig can do for you, but what you can do for your for your Sig.
    14. Re:Time value of money by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Just remember that

      Your commodity hedges will be taxed (potentially at 50%)
      Tips are based on CPI and the govt is manipulating and perhaps even outright lying about CPI since Clinton.

      I expect inflation-- but realize I can't really know the future.
      So I hedge 10% in commodities, 10% in overseas markets.

      That might increase over time.

      With the government involved, it really always turns into a game of "heads we win, tails you lose".

      I expect for every dollar I take out of my Roth in 20 years, that I'll lose a dollar of Social Security benefits (essentially negating my savings).
      Meanwhile people who saved nothing will get 75% benefits... so I'll come out very mildly ahead.

      And have missed big cars, houses, exotic vacations, and tons of snatch in return for not eating dog food when I'm 70.

      If I don't die before 70.

      And if we don't have a world war, fatal pandemic, asteroid strike, etc.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    15. Re:Time value of money by schmiddy · · Score: 1

      Your commodity hedges will be taxed (potentially at 50%)

      Efficient tax allocation, my friend. The Roth IRA you alluded to and a traditional IRA are powerful vehicles indeed. Stick all of your least tax-efficient bets (especially options) inside these accounts, and if you have investment money left over buy munis or other more tax-efficient investments in taxable accounts.

      Tips are based on CPI and the govt is manipulating and perhaps even outright lying about CPI since Clinton.

      True enough. Excluding energy costs from CPI is ridiculous, but there are negating factors in the other direction as well.

      --
      http://cltracker.net -- powerful craigslist multi-city search
    16. Re:Time value of money by misexistentialist · · Score: 1

      Past results do not indicate future returns
      After 3 decades it's probably time that we entered into a new economic cycle. I'm looking forward to the Regan one billion dollar bill.

  5. The real benefit by networkzombie · · Score: 1

    not getting a higher bill when you forget to turn off the lights every time you leave a room.

    1. Re:The real benefit by the_humeister · · Score: 1

      Or using those lights to grow pot. Hmmm... he's funding terrorism!

  6. Bad Math by Itchyeyes · · Score: 4, Insightful

    He sums the article up by claiming that his return will be sooner than 12 years based on changes in his electricity usage (like his daughter leaving for college). This is bad math. He would have changed his usage either way, so he can't really count those watts as impacted by his investment in the solar panels. Overall though it seems like he's getting a decent return on his investment.

    1. Re:Bad Math by Manip · · Score: 1

      If he had invested $38k in the stock market how much would he have after 12 years?

      I'm guessing even in these harsh economic times the result would be more than the initial $38k. :)

    2. Re:Bad Math by T+Murphy · · Score: 4, Funny

      His return will be sooner than 12 years based on changes in his electricity usage (like his daughter leaving for college). This is bad math.

      He installs big ugly solar panels on his roof, making his daughter decide to go away for college to get away from her dorky dad, which reduces electricity usage. I don't see what the problem is.

    3. Re:Bad Math by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      or he could have $0.

      This is guaranteed money, that always pays less than risky money.

    4. Re:Bad Math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I didn't rtfa, ofc, but I would assume he's talking about the ever-rising cost of electricity.

    5. Re:Bad Math by maeka · · Score: 4, Interesting

      This is guaranteed money, that always pays less than risky money.

      Not it isn't.
      The risks are different, but this is not without risks.
      Panels could prematurely fail, and the provider go out of business leaving him with no warranty.
      Price of electricity could fall, greatly extending his ROI.
      Interest rates could climb, increasing the opportunity cost of his investment.
      Far superior panels could be released next year.
      Poor installation could lead to water damage to his house.

      The possible risks are numerous, far from a guaranteed ROI.

    6. Re:Bad Math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The stock market isn't nearly as lucrative as you might expect.

      Hint: Increases in Dow Average is NOT an accurate reflection on average stock return, because the DJIA does NOT work the same way investing in the stock market works.

      Hint on Hint: Both components and their coefficients of the Dow Average change over the years by committee. Components are carefully chosen in hopes the DJIA to continually increase, but of course that's not always a given.

    7. Re:Bad Math by snl2587 · · Score: 1

      I actually like the look of the solar panels on the roof...then again, I'm also the same person who thinks that the giant wind turbines actually improve the landscape of the Midwest.

    8. Re:Bad Math by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      All of those things are very unlikely or mitigated by insurance. A poor installation could lead to damage but that for instance would be the installers problem not his.

      This is as close to a guaranteed ROI as it gets.

    9. Re:Bad Math by xlotlu · · Score: 2, Insightful

      He sums the article up by claiming that his return will be sooner than 12 years based on changes in his electricity usage (like his daughter leaving for college). This is bad math. He would have changed his usage either way, so he can't really count those watts as impacted by his investment in the solar panels.

      Or he'll pump the surplus electricity into the grid, and get paid for it. That's ignoring the increasing cost of electricity.

    10. Re:Bad Math by maeka · · Score: 1

      This is as close to a guaranteed ROI as it gets.

      and the historic performance of the stock market over the timespan being talked about has been the best ROI for investors.

      All of those things are very unlikely or mitigated by insurance.

      A - Don't know how you can call most of the risks "unlikely" as this is a new type of investment with no established precedent.
      B - Insurance raises the cost and lengthens the (already long) ROI.

    11. Re:Bad Math by Endo13 · · Score: 1

      In fact, the opposite may actually be true. If his usage drops to where he uses less power than he generates, he's going to be selling some back to the power company that month, and I'd be surprised if they pay the same amount as what they sell it for. Also, he's going to be saving less if he has less months where he hits the peak rate - quite a bit less actually.

      Taking all that into account, there's no way he's actually going to get a positive ROI on it anywhere near as soon as he thinks. Possibly not even in the warranty period (30 years).

      Maybe if someone were living in an area with both lots of sunlight and high energy costs it would be a good investment. Otherwise, not so much.

      --
      There is no -1 Disagree mod. Slashdot.org/faq defines mod options. USE IT.
    12. Re:Bad Math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If his energy requirements drop, then so do his savings. If his energy requirements drop to zero, then the value of his setup drops to its salvage value.

    13. Re:Bad Math by tholomyes · · Score: 1

      The power grid infrastructure could collapse and he would still have power, thus causing his home to be overrun by power-hungry mutant zombies... Always a risk, indeed.

      --
      When did the future switch from being a promise to a threat? -C. Palahniuk
    14. Re:Bad Math by jeff4747 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      He would have changed his usage either way, so he can't really count those watts as impacted by his investment in the solar panels.

      You're forgetting one detail.

      Before putting on PV panels, when his daughter leaves, he'd just use less electricity. After adding the PV panels, when his daughter leaves he can sell more electricity to the power company.

      Adding your own generating capability means a reduction in usage is also an increase in sales.

    15. Re:Bad Math by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      Actually its worse than that, when his electricity usage goes down, he will be saving less, not more. The things he uses to suggest that he will pay it off in less than 12 years actually mean it will take more than 12 years to pay off the investment. I, also, don't understand his base math.
      savings in 1st year: ______________$3,000
      Initial cost of installation: _________$38,000
      1st year savings times 12: $36,000
      Unrecovered cost after 12 years : $2,000
      12 years interest from savings account: $10193

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    16. Re:Bad Math by Sircus · · Score: 1

      You're missing the point of the comment about his daughter leaving. Her PC use and TV time is mainly in the evening, meaning that the power used for that is mainly coming from the grid and not from solar. So the net effect of his daughter going to college, power-wise, is that the proportion of power supplied by his solar panels will be increased from where it otherwise would have been - even though the total amount involved may drop.

      If you want to question his logic, a more fruitful point might be to consider that while his ROI is whatever%, this is after tying himself in to a (say) 15-year investment. A T-Note taken at the same time last year would get him 10 years of interest at 4.168% - and if he needed to get out of it due to a change in circumstances, he could sell the note on (potentially absorbing a minor loss). His only realistic choice with the panels is to sell the house they're attached to.

      --
      PenguiNet: the (shareware) Windows SSH client
    17. Re:Bad Math by vlm · · Score: 1

      and the historic performance of the stock market over the timespan being talked about has been the best ROI for investors.

      Serious? No sarcasm tag? That's hilarious that we're talking about 12 year returns here in 2009...

      Today close 8322

      2009-12 = 1997

      According to http://www.mdleasing.com/djia.htm

      "1997 Jul. 30 Rises 80.36 to close at 8,254.89, first close above 8,200.00"

      So, thats about 68 increase in 12 years for a TOTAL percentage gain of 0.82%, or divided by 12 (admittedly not using the proper compounding formula) that's a whopping annual percentage rate of 0.068654 %. Not exactly going to retire to a private Caribbean island on that ROI...

      For a good time, contemplate the effect of a generation of baby boomers flooding money into the market.. demand soars, prices soar... until they retire and pull the money out of the market for a generation... demand collapses, prices collapse...

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    18. Re:Bad Math by maeka · · Score: 1

      So picking one of the worst 12 year stock market runs post great depression shows an even break, exactly as the best-case scenario in the original article?
      This proves my point.

    19. Re:Bad Math by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      It's not just you: almost anything would improve the landscape of the midwest.

    20. Re:Bad Math by whizzard · · Score: 1

      Or he'll pump the surplus electricity into the grid, and get paid for it.

      False. According to his one-month update:

      In California, you cannot sell excess power to the local utility. In other words, you can't do better than a zero dollar bill--if you're a consumer. I can sell power to the utility, but only if the net result over a year is zero.

    21. Re:Bad Math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Let me discount all your risks...

      panels fail and the company goes under??? really do I even have to refute this? What is that likelyhood?

      HAHAHAHA, price of electricity fall? Please provide evidence of when that happened (and how it would affect him)

      And the stock market could soar to 20,000 tomorrow also.

      so, his still work.

      insurance, and he can sue the installer. And just how much damage would this be?

      all your points are stupid, like you.

    22. Re:Bad Math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Except that in California you cannot actually have a net negative electricity bill. I think he mentioned that in one of the other articles. But it does mean that the short term power that is bought by the utility is paid for at retail prices. In areas that do permit selling more than you use, the utility only has to pay wholesale rates. For most people the California plan is better.

    23. Re:Bad Math by jonbryce · · Score: 1

      You need to add dividends to that. That will improve your return slightly.

    24. Re:Bad Math by xlotlu · · Score: 1

      Sucks to be in California then I guess, because he'll definitely have surplus during summer months.

      Anyway, check this very explicit chart about the tier plan he has for grid usage. His logic makes sense.

    25. Re:Bad Math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Rofl! Superior panels next year somehow lower his ROI? What are you, an Apple fanboy? Do the new panels come around and smash up the old ones?

    26. Re:Bad Math by 7-Vodka · · Score: 1

      He installs big ugly solar panels on his roof, making his daughter decide to go away for college to get away from her dorky dad, which reduces electricity usage. I don't see what the problem is.

      Brilliant! So he saves a few bucks a month on electricity and exchanges that for a 200k bill for college.

      --

      Liberty.

    27. Re:Bad Math by sjames · · Score: 1

      Not really. Because of the price structure, changing his usage pattern can give him a greater savings, but only if the panels are installed./

    28. Re:Bad Math by Space+cowboy · · Score: 1

      I'm in California, and I'm grid-tied. You true-up on a yearly basis, so you generally give to the grid in Summer and take from the grid in Winter.

      What you cant do is make a profit over the year. In fact they charge you $5/month for the fancy meter, so you always end up owing something....

      It's also important to get onto the 'expensive-electricity-in-the-day, cheap-electricity-at-night' tariff. Then you're generally charging them expensive electricity with your overage, and pulling cheap electricity when the solar panels aren't working ('cos it's night time :)

      Simon.

      --
      Physicists get Hadrons!
    29. Re:Bad Math by sjames · · Score: 1

      Price of electricity could fall, greatly extending his ROI.

      I'd rank "Destroyed by the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man" slightly more likely than that!

      Far superior panels could be released next year.

      Interest rates could climb, increasing the opportunity cost of his investment.

      Those won't affect his ROI.

    30. Re:Bad Math by T+Murphy · · Score: 1

      Going between home and college I go through a large wind farm- I think it is impressive and interesting to see. Related, on a road trip with the cross country team we were at a rest stop where some truckers hauling turbine blades also stopped. Those things look big on the towers, but you really get them in perspective when they're pulling in to the parking spot next to you. I see wind as the green power source of the near future, not solar. Looks so much cooler too.

    31. Re:Bad Math by PhotoGuy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I'm sure it varies state by state (and province by province), but last time I checked, the power companies don't pay you penny-for-penny for the kwh you sell back to them. If memory serves, they pay you something like 10% of the going rates, which doesn't really amount to much. However, every bit of power you *reduce* your power company usage by, is pure gain. Counting on selling excess just doesn't factor in practically at this time.

      --
      Love many, trust a few, do harm to none.
    32. Re:Bad Math by maeka · · Score: 1

      Both of the last two mean that his money, had it been placed in more liquid assets, could have been moved into higher-yielding investments.

    33. Re:Bad Math by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      It looks like he failed to account for insurance in his calculations. Insurance costs money.

    34. Re:Bad Math by sjames · · Score: 1

      Yes, but they are opportunity costs, not risks. A risk implies that the investment may lose money or perform below expectations.

    35. Re:Bad Math by manicmike66 · · Score: 1

      Here in Australia, we get a larger amount back than what we pay for electricity. Also, the government subsidises the installation cost (was $8,000 until a few weeks ago). "In Adelaide electricity is sold to homes at around 18c per unit but purchases are made back at a rate of up to 64c per unit" Source http://www.solarshop.com.au/main/webcontent61.htm Mine has been ordered. Help the environment and don't pay anything. How does that sound?

    36. Re:Bad Math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are absolutely correct on your definition, but that is semantics, as what is the difference between performing below expectations and performing below reasonable possibility with no need of hindsight?

    37. Re:Bad Math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It is definitely a less risky investment, but you cannot say it is risk free. Treasury bonds are general considered to be a good proxy for the risk free rate. If he is beating that, then it is a good investment as I'd say his risks are only slightly higher than the risk free rate, and arguably less.

    38. Re:Bad Math by Zoxed · · Score: 1

      > I'm sure it varies state by state (and province by province)...

      Here in Germany our apartment building has solar/electric panels on the roof and it works out better financially to sell *all* the power to the electric company and then buy it back under and Eco-tariff !!

    39. Re:Bad Math by vlm · · Score: 1

      You need to add dividends to that. That will improve your return slightly.

      And forgot to subtract inflation, lowering it much more.

      Dividends are out of style due to USA income tax code. Individual investors have no control over when they're paid, so they will probably get stuck paying at their peak marginal rate. Whereas, if the company keeps its cash and expands or buys other companies, or just sits on the cash, the stock price goes up and the individual investor can sell at their leisure, like after the retire and drop to a minimally low marginal tax rate.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    40. Re:Bad Math by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      However, every bit of power you *reduce* your power company usage by, is pure gain.

      Yes.....he gets both the "pure gain" of reducing his consumption as well as the more cash from selling more power.

      It doesn't particularly matter what rate he gets paid, he's still getting paid more and paying out less. Which is better than just paying out less.

    41. Re:Bad Math by sjames · · Score: 1

      The difference is fairly significant, otherwise the two terms wouldn't be distinct.

      Many small investors are quite risk averse (this will or should be especially true of retirement funds), but not as worried about opportunity cost, particularly if the opportunities would be primarily for a higher risk investment.

      Opportunity costs don't wipe you out. Risks can do exactly that.

      TOO much worry over opportunity costs will make sure your non-"investment" fails to perform at all.

    42. Re:Bad Math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nah, while I hear what you are saying and fully agree on all points but the conclusion, I still strongly believe in this context - my initial attack of this venture as somehow a "safe bet" - we can consider risks and opportunity costs as equals.

    43. Re:Bad Math by sjames · · Score: 1

      Really, it's a matter of safe from what. It's rather safe from loss, the odds are greatly in his favor that he won't lose money on this investment.

      It's quite likely to perform to expectations or better.

      That's what most mean by a safe bet.

      Opportunity cost would come into the question of was it his best bet. That, in turn, comes down to his level of risk aversion, which we don't know enough to determine.

  7. Industy Standard Warranties by spun · · Score: 5, Informative

    Most manufacturers guarantee that their panels will give at least 90% of peak power at ten years, and 80% of power at 25 years. Yes, he's saving money.

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    1. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by snowraver1 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      He might be saving money, but in part because he is getting raped for electricity. His rates were 11 cents to 30 cents+ per kWh. I pay 7 cents per kWh all the time.

      --
      Copyright 2010. All rights reserved. This comment may not be copied in any way including, but not limited to caching.
    2. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by h4rr4r · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Which is why solar is a good investment in those areas and not where you live.

    3. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by JoeMerchant · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Most manufacturers guarantee that their panels will give at least 90% of peak power at ten years, and 80% of power at 25 years. Yes, he's saving money.

      These same manufacturers have guarantees that they will be in business in 25 years?

    4. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by vlm · · Score: 1

      These same manufacturers have guarantees that they will be in business in 25 years?

      Kyocera's been around since 1959, only 50 years this year.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyocera

      Hyundai Heavy Industries has only been around since 1973, a relative newcomer to the business at 36 years old.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyundai_Heavy_Industries

      BP Solar was reorganized into existence also in 1973, but who cares about org charts and marketing names. BP has been around since 1901 to 1909 depending on how you look at it, just round it to a cool century.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BP_Solar

      The odds of a solar panel mfgr being around to pay the guarantee that I will probably not need to collect, are probably far higher than the odds of GM replacement parts being available in 25 years...

      The other aspect is that due to 25 years of technological improvement and inflation, refunding my money would probably barely buy me a starbucks coffee, and replacement panels would probably only cost as much as a major appliance for the same power level so who cares, from a financial standpoint its like doing all kinds of crazy accounting regarding replacing my fridge.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    5. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by spun · · Score: 1

      No, they are all lying, their panels will only last five years, and they all plan to go out of business before then. Never mind the fact that many of them have already been in business for twenty five years. It's solar, the hippies like it, therefore there must be something wrong with it.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    6. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And lots of companies that were around for 85-95-115 years around here are now gone. Doesn't prove anything.

    7. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by jayme0227 · · Score: 1

      Call it a hunch but I believe that at least some of these companies will still be in business after 25 years: Mitsubishi, Sanyo, GE, BP, Sharp.

      If you're worried about your warranty, there viable companies to choose from that will likely still be around for at least as long as your warranty. It would seem that the risk in buying solar panels from one of these companies is relatively small when compared to some of the "investment vehicles" that are still being traded on the market today.

      --
      But then I realized the cable was blue, so I only gave it one star. I hate blue.
    8. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by Ant+P. · · Score: 1

      My electricity's about £0.11/kWh which is more or less the same. There were a few places here selling 300W wind turbines (which works better than solar since it's a semi-rural area with lots of crap weather), but the local power company (which has a monopoly, again since it's in the middle of nowhere) slings FUD around and fights tooth and nail against things like that, so it didn't last long.

    9. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by jayme0227 · · Score: 1

      It has to do with risk. If you are dealing with a reputable company, a 25 year warranty is almost a guarantee. The fact that they are issuing a warranty means that they are putting their assets, including their company name behind their product. This means that they must believe that a significant majority of their products will last for at least 25 years, if not considerably longer. If they are wrong, you get your money back, or at least new panels.

      You're right, though, there is the possibility that they go out of business, but the likelihood of a well established company going out of business AND your warrantied product failing is probably less than the likelihood of a stock market downturn eating a significant portion of your investments.

      --
      But then I realized the cable was blue, so I only gave it one star. I hate blue.
    10. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which is why solar is a good investment in those areas and not where you live.

      Indeed. Here in Hawaii, my electricity is near $0.30 per kWH, and I am strongly considering going solar.

    11. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by JoeMerchant · · Score: 1

      I'm referring to the plethora of "flash in the pan" solar companies that sprouted from nowhere when oil passed $100/bbl. Maybe they'll be around 100 years from now, but in general, collecting on long term warranties is not the 100% assurance that some people in their early 20's seem to think it is.

    12. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by JoeMerchant · · Score: 1

      Read your warranty papers carefully, make sure they're backed by the manufacturer and not the installer... oh, by the way, installation/removal costs are a significant portion of the total system costs, and I can't imagine Sanyo, BP, or Sharp backing SunnyJim-Bob's installation crew.

    13. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by spun · · Score: 1

      No warranty is a 100% assurance of anything. That's not the point. The point is, this is the industry standard. Not one flash in the pan company's decision. The reason being, solar panels last that long. Why wouldn't they warranty a product for 25 years if it is designed to last that long?

      You seemed to be implying that the panels will not last 25 years, and therefore, the person mentioned in the article will not be saving any money. If this is not what you meant to imply, I simply have to ask, what was your motivation for posting your trivial observation?

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    14. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by JoeMerchant · · Score: 1

      Just relating life experiences with house contractors - great warranties up front turn into acrimonious battles about the sub-sub-sub contractors screwing up the rest of the house during installation, doing shoddy workmanship that will reveal itself in 6 to 60 months, etc. etc. And, while the absolute best of these people might come back 4 years later and "make it right, free of charge", the vast majority won't return your calls after the final payment check clears the bank.

      So, if you're interested in doing the panel installation yourself, that 25 year warranty from Sanyo might mean something - although most such warranties require installation by a certified professional (see above.)

      Do the panels last 25 years? Probably. Do they maintain 80% of their original output power? In an ideal installation, with no excessive corrosion due to: bird poo, leaf litter, salt spray, blowing dust, acid rain, or pretty much anything else from the real world - 25 years is a long time - and even if the panels are still working, odds are something in the installation, such as a rotting roof due to water penetration at the panel mount points, will fail in that time, leading to significantly more cost in maintenance than is projected by the article.

      I'd love to have these panels myself, but I'm consuming $0.11/kwh coal produced electricity, and I have mature (100+ year old) trees in my yard that would cut 20-30% of my collection day. I'd love it if my entire town would cough up the cash to buy these panels and cut our coal burning pollution by 50% or more, but for me to spend a significant part of my 401(k) on something that won't even return bank interest in savings, and will require significant future labor to maintain... it just doesn't make sense here.

    15. Re:Industy Standard Warranties by spun · · Score: 1

      Well, if solar doesn't make economic sense for you now, you aren't alone. It doesn't for most people. But solar has come down in total cost of ownership quite dramatically in the last twenty years. Pretty soon it may make sense for your town to put up solar.

      As for house warranties, heh, you'd be lucky if the contractor was still around. Many of them form an LLC or partnership for one development, and dissolve it after the development is over. Who do you sue if something goes wrong? When I was a kid, my dad had to pay $45,000 to have his septic system rebuilt. The sub contractor had installed the leaching field upside down, with the drainage holes facing up, so they filled up with soil. Next year, the county put in a sewer and made everyone pay to hook up. (sad trombone noise: WAH Wah waaahhhh)

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
  8. A ten year ROI? by spun · · Score: 2, Funny

    I don't think return on investment is measured in the units you think it is measured in.

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    1. Re:A ten year ROI? by davester666 · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      > Stupid git

      Why are you insulting a version control system?

      --
      Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
    2. Re:A ten year ROI? by Critical+Facilities · · Score: 1

      I would respectfully disagree with you. There are a LOT of large companies who think of ROI in exactly the terms that the parent used. Moreover, I too have been subjected to the "2 to 3 year payback" threshold in recent years, and I can tell you from personal experience that this is exactly the determining factor in many "green" projects. One can definitely argue as to whether excluding the other aspects of the Total Cost of Ownership should/should not come into play, but I must defend the parent, as he is correct.

    3. Re:A ten year ROI? by spun · · Score: 1

      Perhaps you did not understand what I meant. I would respectfully ask that you google the term. Or ask a financial expert. Or look on investopedia. Return on Investment is measured as a percentage, not a period of years.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    4. Re:A ten year ROI? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They are still wrong for thinking of it that way. ROI is the return you make on your inventment.. not a break even point.

    5. Re:A ten year ROI? by icebike · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exactly.

      It means Return ON Investment.
      Not Return OF Investment.

      No money will be saved on this scheme until AFTER 10 or 12 years.

      However even this is optimistic, because what is eventually returned on this investment will be worth far less than an equivalent amount today.

      Further, maintenance costs will start to accrue well before that, and replacement parts will be needed for stuff that was obsolete the day it was installed, and may not even be available then.

      There may be better equipment and cheaper equipment then. But more likely the failing part will be some obscure little piece requiring the replacement of some expensive big piece.

      This is the risk of buying into a developing technology. The payoff is a long way down the road. Usually beyond the next generational change in the technology.

      Still, it takes people like Loyd to go out there and do it with what is available, because we can't wait for the perfect solution or we would all still be living in Caves.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    6. Re:A ten year ROI? by Mitchell314 · · Score: 2, Informative

      IIRC, solar panels lose significant power and become unreliable around 20 years. However this isn't a one-moment-it's-brand-new to the-next-moment-it's-junk. As time goes on, the returns decrease. My guess is that for the average household set up, if you are looking for it to pay itself off in nominal terms, 15 years is probably as far as you would want to go (naturally, there are exceptions). A trick is figuring out a cheap way to keep these panels reliable until then.

      That somebody would brave a risky expensive project with not-too-golden financial rewards over such time is commendable, especially in the not-exactly-guaranteed chance that it works as planned over a decade.

      --
      I read TFA and all I got was this lousy cookie
    7. Re:A ten year ROI? by profplump · · Score: 1

      You're being too literal. By "ROI" he means "The point at which the ROI becomes positive/exceeds the investment threshold/etc."

    8. Re:A ten year ROI? by dwywit · · Score: 4, Informative
      Quality solar PV (such as mine from BP Australia) are warranted for 20 years. The terms of the warranty regarding output are basically: no less than 80% of rated output for said 20 year period. There's no cheap way - you pay big $$$ upfront for quality panels, and they'll last a long time - excepting severe accidents, of course.

      I'm in a situation where I'm not looking for ROI - I'm off-grid, and getting the mains connected has been quoted at AUD$33,000 PLUS tree-clearing costs. My latest upgrade (new 1320ah battery bank, 6x165w panels, regulator, frames & installation) cost AUD$23,000. It was subsidised at 50% so we only paid AUD$11,500, but even if it wasn't, it's still cheaper than getting the mains on.

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    9. Re:A ten year ROI? by similar_name · · Score: 1

      Who says America is shortsighted?

    10. Re:A ten year ROI? by Critical+Facilities · · Score: 1

      You are correct that in the literal sense of the financial term, ROI is indeed expressed as a percentage. Furthermore, what I and the GP are referring to is technically considered the payback period.

      Semantics and technicalities aside, the priciple still holds up. When a capital improvement is being proposed (especially when its intent is to save energy), it is usually thought of and budgeted for with specific regard to the payback period as an interpretation of the return on the investment. That is, "what is the period of time until we make back the money that we've invested" -or- "what is the period of time until we realize a return on our capital investment".

      So, while in a strict "by the book" interpretation, you are correct, it doesn't change the fact that (in the corporate world at least) these investments are absolutely thought of in terms of when the financials are "in the black", and that the units of measurement are typically relative to the particular situation.

    11. Re:A ten year ROI? by blitziod · · Score: 1

      semantics aside..this figure is misleading to many home buyers..if you are building a NEW RURAL home solar can be cheaper and I tell you why...If you live off the grid you have to pay to bring the grid to you. solar upgrades to a home already having working power and lines going to it means you have paid for grid power and are now paying again for solar. If you are 300 yards from the road AND there is no power running to your place, solar could make sense . Of course people in that kind of place are more likely to pick wind energy. If solar is gonna take off..this market is where we will see it first..you think I am nutz just look at cable and sattlite TV.

      --
      The only way to bust a doper--is when you yourself become a smoker!
    12. Re:A ten year ROI? by Technician · · Score: 1

      Often overlooked in ROI is the energy costs are not fixed. I bought a Prius with a calculated ROI in fuel savings at 100,000 miles based on gas prices of $150 in the US. I have put 120,000 miles on it and it's still going strong. When gas prices went over $4.00/gallon and down to $2.00 the calculation never did return to the initial estimated fuel price of $1.50. Electricity rates may do the same.

      --
      The truth shall set you free!
    13. Re:A ten year ROI? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Quality solar PV (such as mine from BP Australia) are warranted for 20 years.

      Have any of these companies even been in business 20 years yet?

    14. Re:A ten year ROI? by bhiestand · · Score: 1

      Quality solar PV (such as mine from BP Australia) are warranted for 20 years.

      Have any of these companies even been in business 20 years yet?

      You bring up a good point, but it doesn't really have an effect here. What's more important is a) whether or not these panels will need replacing under the warranty and b) how many of these companies will be able to honor the warranty in 20 years.

      If they will not need to be replaced, the manufacturer's status will not affect the ROI. Since the materials involved are fairly well known and understood, it's unlikely we'll see significantly increased degradation in performance. The 75-80% capacity after 20 years isn't a wild guess. If, however, they need to be replaced, then we need to examine whether or not the company will be able to honor the warranty.

      Assuming any of the projections for solar panel demand are accurate, it is very likely that these companies will be selling max output for at least the next five years. Assuming we don't develop cold fusion by then, and these companies are going to continue to grow, they could easily honor the warranty without suffering a death blow.

      I'd say, overall, that the risks are very low on this investment.

      --
      SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling
  9. Energy prices are unstable by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

    Given the instability of electricity prices I'm not sure that his experiences are going to be very representative for the next few years. Most people suspect that electricity prices will increase and if that occurs then solar power will make even more sense. But there's no hard guarantee. If the economy remains stagnant then electricity cost from the normal grid will likely remain near in cost to where it is now.

    1. Re:Energy prices are unstable by Captain+Splendid · · Score: 0

      But there's no hard guarantee.

      Sure there is. Go read up on Peak Oil.

      Then go read what anybody's doing about it. (Hint: Apart from mostly singular projects like the one in TFA, mostly jack shit.)

      Electricity prices will go up.

      --
      Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
    2. Re:Energy prices are unstable by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      Electricity prices will almost certainly go up in the long term. But whether investing in solar right now makes sense depends om much shorter term costs.

    3. Re:Energy prices are unstable by j79zlr · · Score: 4, Informative

      But there's no hard guarantee. Sure there is. Go read up on Peak Oil. Then go read what anybody's doing about it. (Hint: Apart from mostly singular projects like the one in TFA, mostly jack shit.) Electricity prices will go up.

      Except for the fact that only around 1.5% of the US electricity generation comes from the use of oil. Take a look here: Net Generation by Energy Source by Type of Producer. Out of a little more than 4,000,000 MWH of electricity generated, about 65,000 MWH came from petroleum.

      --
      I'm not not licking toads.
    4. Re:Energy prices are unstable by AnotherBlackHat · · Score: 1

      Electricity prices will almost certainly go up in the long term.

      I disagree.
      In the past 20 years, measured in constant dollars, electricity prices have declined steadily.
      Over the past 40 years, they've varied more, but the overall trend is still down.
      Most long term projections are that the trend will continue to be down as we figure out new and better (cheaper) ways to make electricity.
      Electricity from oil will likely be more expensive, but we're not likely to make electricity from oil for precisely that reason.

    5. Re:Energy prices are unstable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And if / when the oil runs out, how are you going to power your vehicles? The only other already-established supply network is electricity. (and internet, but I somehow don't think the Internet is capable of moving a car... physically, anyway)

      Severely increased usage will likely mean that prices will go up, simply because we'll be putting greater strains on other resources. (and probably due to greedy corporations =b)

    6. Re:Energy prices are unstable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's also a Peak Coal to worry about. And Peak Natural Gas too. Eventually those will increase as well.

    7. Re:Energy prices are unstable by minvaren · · Score: 1

      However, nearly 25% comes from natural gas, according to the chart you linked - and has more than doubled in the last decade...

      --
      Big! Strong! Wow! Tada-O!
    8. Re:Energy prices are unstable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You do realise both coal and natural gas are fossil fuels as well, right?
      That brings your energy sources which eventually WILL run out closer to 72% of the production in 2007.

    9. Re:Energy prices are unstable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So do you think there is no link between cost of one energy and another?

    10. Re:Energy prices are unstable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except for the fact that only around 1.5% of the US electricity generation comes from the use of oil. Take a look here: Net Generation by Energy Source by Type of Producer. Out of a little more than 4,000,000 MWH of electricity generated, about 65,000 MWH came from petroleum.

      Oil is used as a transport fuel. Once supplies become too low for much oil to be used for that anymore, then electricity will be needed to power a lot of the cars. Ergo electricity prices go up.

    11. Re:Energy prices are unstable by freg · · Score: 1

      This is fairly unscientific, but having owned a general coal index fund for the past year I've seen a direct relationship between the price of oil and coal. When I go to the gas pump if the price of gas is up it tends to mean that my coal investment will be up by the same percentage. Electricity prices will go up when peak oil becomes more obvious. Energy is energy, and we humans are pretty creative at using all our nonrenewable resources. If that means using coal instead of oil to power our cars then it will happen if need be.

    12. Re:Energy prices are unstable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except that petroleum is still used for a huge percentage of the total energy consumption (cant be bothered to check numbers). After the price of petroleum goes up significantly, the price of other types of energy will go up as well, with everyone switching to another energy source and starting to compete of the resources with energy companies.

  10. I am not so sure... by Shivetya · · Score: 1

    Because the money spent needs to be factored as, how much could he have made investing it and provided he didn't take a loan to get it all change the equation.

    Throw in, what is the change in insurance cost, maintenance of said units, and then determine true savings. I think he will find it will not pay for itself within ten to fifteen years.

    I also think that to speed up his return he needs an energy audit to find out how he is wasting electricity. Perhaps 4k to 5k power bills are the norm, but it seems excessive. I power a nearly 4000 square foot home in Georgia and through purposeful management of electricity and gas I might peak at 3600 if I get silly but tend to be below 3k for the year. My expensive months are winter months where I have to heat the place as gas cost me more than electricity I need to cool the home. Think, ceiling fans, zoned heating/cooling, and tolerance for 78 for summer temperature inside and 68 during winter. I also exploit cool nights with a box fan or two.

    --
    * Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
    1. Re:I am not so sure... by maeka · · Score: 1

      Aye.
      I have a wife who won't turn off lights, use window ACs, and still only spend $900 a year on power. $1200 a year on natural gas. 1300 sq feet.

    2. Re:I am not so sure... by crmarvin42 · · Score: 1

      IIRC from the 6 month update, he has a small army of PC's turned servers running in his basement at all times. That'll increase the need for air conditioning, as well as the large amount of power they draw all day long. He does have unusually high energy bills, but I'm sure they aren't unreasonable for some /. members with similarly aggressive power requirements.

      --
      Bureaucracy expands to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy.-Oscar Wilde
    3. Re:I am not so sure... by Helios1182 · · Score: 1

      And I average $1200 for gas and electric combined for a one bedroom apartment. Of course these numbers are meaningless to compare to the author's without knowing more about his home. My place is in Chicago and needs lots of heat in the winter, and lots of AC in the summer. If it were in a continuously mild climate it would be way cheaper -- so we can't compare raw numbers unless you know the size, location, fuel prices, levels of sunlight, how the house was built, the temperature they heat/cool to, etc.

    4. Re:I am not so sure... by maeka · · Score: 1

      Oh, of course.
      I live in the middle of Ohio, but was just equally shocked by the size of the bills in question. My post had almost no redeeming scientific value. ;)

    5. Re:I am not so sure... by SignalFreq · · Score: 1

      California charges a lot for energy. Where I live in SoCal it is tiered:

      $0.115 / Kwh for the first 600 Kwh
      $0.131 / Kwh for 600-780 Kwh
      $0.259 / Kwh for 780-1200 Kwh
      $0.378 / Kwh for 1200-1800 Kwh
      $0.440 / Kwh for 1800+ Kwh

      Of course, the primary electric consumer for me is the AC which pretty much eats up the first and second tier by itself in the summer time (I even have a modest (2200 sq ft), newer (2005), energy efficient house (yeah right, lying construction company)). So I'm pretty much stuck with $0.259 / Kwh for all my additional electronics (computers, TV, stereo, etc). Luckily it is just my wife and I and we had just ~$1800 in electric bills last year. I imagine kids (especially teenage kids like Lyod in the article) would increase the average monthly electric use significantly. I can't imagine cooling a larger house...

    6. Re:I am not so sure... by frankgod · · Score: 1

      Power rates vary quite a bit state to state and California one of the most expensive. It's about 50% more than in Georgia:

      http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html

    7. Re:I am not so sure... by maxume · · Score: 1

      If he stops buying power and starts selling it, he makes less and less money on each unit.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    8. Re:I am not so sure... by sjames · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Because the money spent needs to be factored as, how much could he have made investing it and provided he didn't take a loan to get it all change the equation.

      Currently, all he needs to do to make his investment match an equivalent stock or real estate investment is go up on the roof and smash the panels with a hammer. Of course, since it's already paid back a portion, he'll have to smash out his windshield as well to break even.

    9. Re:I am not so sure... by Sandbags · · Score: 1

      $1200 anually? or monthly? Anually is actually pretty cheap...

      I have a 4500 sqft house in central SC. I'm also cold natured, so i keep my house at 77 during the day and 74 at night. (I can't STAND the heat) This means I'm spending MORE during the most expensive months to wun the central air unit.

      My bill for electricity in May/June was $117, taxes included. I used just over 1000KWh. I do NOT (for reason's I can't fathom) get a smarthome discount, even though I meet every qualification for it. Everything runs on electric except heat and hot water. I run 5-6 laundry loads a week, the dishwasher daily, have 2 refrigerators, a massive HT system, and 3 high performance desktop computers running all the time.

      Heat in the winter is Gas (something I mean to change once I also replace the water heater with an in-line). My gas bill at it's worst was $160. That includes heat, hot water, and my gas log fireplace.

      My previous house was 1480sqft, about a 1/3rd the size of my current home. Both homes are less than 4 years old, and similar construction. Power bills at the smaller house were only about $20 less on average. Why so close? a 12 seer AC on the old house vs 3 seperately zoned 14seer AC units on the new one, mostly. Also, ALL my new applicances are energy star, vs the old house having "cheap" appliances that were in the lower half of the efficincy scale at the time (likely the lower 1/4th now). Outside of air handling and new appliances, there really isn't any difference in my daily power use.

      If i was paying $300 a month to cool a house in califirnia, I'd MUCH sooner spend $29K upgrading the cooling system, replacing inefficient appliances, and replacing all my light bulbs (oh yea, old house used all CFs, new house is all incandascent so far, haven't had time or money to buy the 67, yes 67, new CFs I need, so my power use will only improve with time).

      I was in a 2bdrm apartment for 9 months between houses. Power bills there were nearly twice what I was used to...

      Your appartment probably has REALLY BAD appliances, and REALLY BAD insulation, and the cheapest central air system they could legally get at the time. That said, $1200 anually is dirt cheap, your fridge and a few other appliances can use 600KWH easy per month. If you're paying $1200 a month on average, MOVE! (I'd have called everyone I could complain to and would have the landlord in hock by now, that's rediculous!)

      --
      There is no contest in life for which the unprepared have the advantage.
  11. Price of certainty. by GammaStream · · Score: 5, Insightful

    To all the people mocking his investment, your missing one thing. You do not know what the price of energy is going to do in the next few years. The guy in the article however is guaranteed a minimum amount of power each year from his solar panels at a rate he knows. (His initial investment / Life time of the panels). If the companies decide to hike the prices in two years time due a deterioration in Gulf politics for example, he is sheltered from its effects and lets be honest it's very unlikely the price is going to go down per kwh. He is also sheltered to a certain extent from the failure of the power network so if a situation does arise where there are rolling blackouts again, he knows he will a least have some electricity each day. One of the things that people constantly underestimate the price of is certainty.

    1. Re:Price of certainty. by feepness · · Score: 1

      If the companies decide to hike the prices in two years time due a deterioration in Gulf politics for example, he is sheltered from its effects and lets be honest it's very unlikely the price is going to go down per kwh.

      While I like the idea and evaluate it myself every few years, I have to mention that during a major credit crunch deflation is always a real possibility.

    2. Re:Price of certainty. by westlake · · Score: 1

      The guy in the article however is guaranteed a minimum amount of power each year from his solar panels at a rate he knows.

      Guaranteed by who and for how much? If the panels fail prematurely what are his real chances of recovery?

    3. Re:Price of certainty. by afidel · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The big cost looming for electrical generation has nothing to do with the Gulf, it has to do with a Carbon tax/cap. Unless we go crazy building nuclear plants there WILL be a significant increase in electric rates if we are at all serious about stopping CO2 buildup.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    4. Re:Price of certainty. by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      If the panels fail the warranty covers that.

    5. Re:Price of certainty. by jimbogun · · Score: 2, Informative

      Electric companies shouldn't be directly linked to Gulf politics. Most of the electricity in the U.S. is produced by coal, natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric energy sources according to the Department of Energy. Petroleum makes up only 1.3% of U.S. electricity production. http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/epm_sum.html

      Your point is a good one though, that energy prices will most likely go up per kWh.

    6. Re:Price of certainty. by pixelpusher220 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Actually, he probably won't have any electricity when the grid is out. We just went to an alternative energy show this weekend and learned the following:

      There are 3 types of systems for connecting to the grid:

      Off-grid - self explanatory

      Hybrid - can use battery power when the grid is out

      Sync'd - they must be sync'd so that when the grid is out, the power from the panels is not used..otherwise you'd be trying to feed the grid yourself.

      The last is the most common setup since the idea is to conserve electricity usage, not replace the need for the grid. If all the panels in a neighborhood were feeding energy into the, now dark, grid imagine the power company technician trying to work with the wires that are 'live' from the client side. They could shut off power from the distribution source, but it would still live from the residences preventing it from being safe.

      I imagine it would be bad to run A/C stuff inverted from a variable DC line as well. If you are trying to run normal household stuff straight off the power output of the panels, as it gets later in the day, you'd start getting your own 'brownouts' in the house wouldn't you? And since this guys setup never produced more power than he needed it was always below demand.

      --
      People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people :-D
    7. Re:Price of certainty. by d3l33t · · Score: 1

      Logic has no place here, this is /.!!!

    8. Re:Price of certainty. by JoeMerchant · · Score: 1

      When the cold fusion fairy finally appears, cost per kwh should take a remarkable turn....

    9. Re:Price of certainty. by Ecuador · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but if Daniel Shipstone solves our energy worries in the near future, the guy will just have a fancy roof.

      --
      Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent. Polar Scope Align for iOS
    10. Re:Price of certainty. by pixelpusher220 · · Score: 1

      crap, in the 'Sync'd' option, there are no batteries to store electricity, making it the most cost effective system of the 3.
      Off-grid has to be able to supply 100%+ of your daily power needs.

      Hybrid has to be able to supply a lowered percent - they wire certain house circuits to the panels and the rest to the grid source so that when the power goes out, you can still run your bare minimums (fridge, some lights, HDTV, mondo gaming rig with 42" muthahumpin plasma.....you know the bare necessities of life!)

      --
      People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people :-D
    11. Re:Price of certainty. by Altus · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I thought when the grid went down that synced panel set ups just cut them selves off from the grid, not that they cut them selves off from powering your home.

      --

      "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women..." -H. Simpson

    12. Re:Price of certainty. by SquirrelsUnite · · Score: 1

      While I like the idea and evaluate it myself every few years, I have to mention that during a major credit crunch deflation is always a real possibility.

      True, but even if the expected value equals the current price he's better off because his risk is reduced. Of course it could be that the price of electricity is expected to fall substantially but I think that's just not the case.

    13. Re:Price of certainty. by CodeBuster · · Score: 1

      One of the things that people constantly underestimate the price of is certainty.

      or overestimate it as the case may be. It also is possible to calculate the amount of risk that he is "betting on" with future power prices. If the price of the solar installation is high enough, and $38,000 is a nice chunk of change, then it might still be the case that he overpaid to protect himself from the likely downside risks to future power prices (i.e. he overestimated the probability of future energy shocks pushing electricity prices to a high price per kw/h). People who talk about "time to pay back" (Prius owners are notorious for this type of cost ignorance) without talking about present value, opportunity costs, depreciation, and risk are probably not coming out ahead.

    14. Re:Price of certainty. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't forget what the new carbon taxes will do to energy prices, and I might add, the cost of solar panels when everyone else decides to buy them too...

    15. Re:Price of certainty. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the price of electricity jumps, then economies of scale will drive the price of the panels down, and you and I will buy brand new panels, for less than he paid for his old clunkers, right when the cost of electricity really makes it worthwhile.

      It never pays to be an early adopter.

    16. Re:Price of certainty. by jollyreaper · · Score: 2, Insightful

      To all the people mocking his investment, your missing one thing. You do not know what the price of energy is going to do in the next few years. The guy in the article however is guaranteed a minimum amount of power each year from his solar panels at a rate he knows. (His initial investment / Life time of the panels). If the companies decide to hike the prices in two years time due a deterioration in Gulf politics for example, he is sheltered from its effects and lets be honest it's very unlikely the price is going to go down per kwh. He is also sheltered to a certain extent from the failure of the power network so if a situation does arise where there are rolling blackouts again, he knows he will a least have some electricity each day. One of the things that people constantly underestimate the price of is certainty.

      And the price of energy is artificially low since we don't really factor the environmental cost into things. If you factor in environmental remediation, health care for people poisoned by the power plant pollution, etc, etc, fossil fuels would be very expensive. Just imagine how much gas would cost if we didn't pay for the military with payroll taxes but with a gas tax -- total out of pocket for the tax payer being the same, just let them see what they're really paying to make sure they have gas at the pump. Because the main reason we have a military is to protect our access to foreign oil. Don't tell me we need a military bigger than the rest of the world combined to protect us from Mexico and Canada.

      --
      Kwisatz Haderach
      Sell the spice to CHOAM
      This Mahdi took Shaddam's Throne
    17. Re:Price of certainty. by ID000001 · · Score: 1

      They have 25 years warranty.

    18. Re:Price of certainty. by bcrowell · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I have a residential PV system.

      He is also sheltered to a certain extent from the failure of the power network so if a situation does arise where there are rolling blackouts again, he knows he will a least have some electricity each day.

      This is incorrect. Unless you're in an area where grid power is not available, you buy a PV system that's grid-tied, and then if there's a blackout, you have no power. A non-grid-tied system is significantly more expensive and complicated, so you don't want one unless its your only option.

      One of the things that people constantly underestimate the price of is certainty.

      This is true, but the uncertainty argument isn't all in favor of getting PV. When people ask me how long my system will take to pay for itself, I always answer that I have absolutely no way of knowing, because I don't know what electricity will cost for the next 25 years, which is the design life of the system. If we get a big spike in electricity prices, I'll come out looking like a genius. But there are also other sources of uncertainty that work against PV. The price of the panels is expected to go down, and their efficiency is expected to go up. I don't know how much the price and efficiency will improve in the next 25 years, which is the design lifetime of my system. That's an uncertainty that argues against buying a PV system now.

      I live in an area with expensive electricity and lots of sun. I have a south-facing roof with no shade. Given those factors, getting PV is a fairly reasonable investment, but there's no way to pin down exactly whether or not it's really going to look like a winner for me with hindsight in the year 2032 when the system's design lifetime is over.

      What I do know is that (a) it's in the right ballpark to be a reasonable investment in purely financial terms, and (b) when my grandkids ask me what the **** I did to try to reduce global warming, I'll have at least one reasonable thing I can point to.

    19. Re:Price of certainty. by vlm · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I imagine it would be bad to run A/C stuff inverted from a variable DC line as well. If you are trying to run normal household stuff straight off the power output of the panels, as it gets later in the day, you'd start getting your own 'brownouts' in the house wouldn't you?

      I suppose you could intentionally buy stuff that fails that way. I don't.

      Most switching mode supplies don't care as long as it's above a certain minimum.

      For example, I have a perfectly nice "twelve volt" input ATX supply in my server from powerstream. It doesn't much care as long as the input voltage is above 9 volts and below 18. At 9 volts the lead-acid backup batteries are about 99.99% empty so theres not much lost capacity. If the battery is above 18 volts, its probably on fire or something. So pretty much, as long as there's the tiniest fraction of a KWh left in the batteries, my server runs.

      http://www.powerstream.com/DC-PC-12V.htm

      This is all off the shelf stuff, no big deal, nothing special.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    20. Re:Price of certainty. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are correct that it's not nice to electrocute the utility technicians during an outage. However, I believe you need to visit another alt energy show to understand the sync'd option along with AC versus DC. The syncing is not to cut off your household's electrical generation during a grid outage, but to stop you from powering their grid during an outage. Thus you can continue using your own power during the outage, but any excess you produce is NOT fed to the grid. When the grid is up, your 60 Hz AC is sync'd with the grid 60Hz AC and your excess can be fed/intertied to the grid. You might also draw from the grid to meet any deficiency between your consumption and your production.

    21. Re:Price of certainty. by AK+Marc · · Score: 2, Informative

      The last is the most common setup since the idea is to conserve electricity usage, not replace the need for the grid. If all the panels in a neighborhood were feeding energy into the, now dark, grid imagine the power company technician trying to work with the wires that are 'live' from the client side. They could shut off power from the distribution source, but it would still live from the residences preventing it from being safe.

      The hookups should disconnect from the grid when the grid is down. It is silly to turn off your power when the grid is down, rather than just run it separately. Then, once the grid is back up, connect them together again. Oh, and all electrical workers are aware of this, and all electric lines are treated as hot. Yes, treating a hot line as hot is less safe than treating a dark line as hot, but it isn't like the unsuspecting electrical workers are grabbing them with their bare hands and getting fried.

    22. Re:Price of certainty. by atramentum · · Score: 1

      You are forgetting that if energy prices go up, so does the cost of solar panels. Current solar panel technology will always be a wash, because it takes as much energy to produce them as they will gather in their entire lifetime. The only benefit is in baseless government backing, so if you make enough money to offset the cost in tax breaks, it works. There is certainly value in knowing you will have power - but there are much better ways to get it.

    23. Re:Price of certainty. by eriks · · Score: 2, Informative

      Um, no, not really. There's no reason to stop producing power when the grid goes down. You, however really do have to have an automated Transfer Switch (these are sometimes integrated into the inverter with a solar system) with any on-line power system, so that when the grid goes down, you stop powering the GRID. You can do whatever you want with power you are generating inside your home, which if the power goes out when it's sunny, or if you have a battery system, or a generator, feeding the inverter, should be plenty to run your fridge, and maybe a few lights, even if you are producing less than you need to run everything. This is vastly under-appreciated I think, in terms of the value it adds to your home.

    24. Re:Price of certainty. by Buelldozer · · Score: 2, Informative

      I'm not sure how you got modded "Interesting" since your main point "Sync'd" is incorrect.

      Apparently they didn't explain the function of a transfer panel at your alternative energy show. A transfer panel will decouple your home energy generation system from the grid in the event of utility power failure.

      Some panels do this automatically and others are manual. Either way a solution exists and is commonly used for just the situation you're describing. Also, AFAIK almost every municipalities electrical code requires the installation of these when you install your own power generation capability.

      Also even if he doesn't have batteries he can always reduce demand to equal his output and have SOME of his stuff going. Maybe he has to turn off the home LAN/WLAN, his big screen TV and not run the dryer or microwave but it's almost certainly possible for him to stay at or below his generation capacity unless it's the dead of the night.

    25. Re:Price of certainty. by Buelldozer · · Score: 1

      Where does this "grid tied" stuff come from?

      I may be mistaken but what you're describing is EXACTLY what a transfer panel is meant to correct.

      They're not "sophisticated" or even particularly expensive. A 100 amp indoor rated manual panel can be purchased for roughly $140!

      http://www.electricgeneratorsdirect.com/accessories/transfer-panels.php

    26. Re:Price of certainty. by bcrowell · · Score: 1

      Where does this "grid tied" stuff come from?

      If you live in a remote rural area that's off the grid, you need a battery so you can have electricity at night, or when it's cloudy. The battery is big and expensive. That's a non-grid-tied system.

    27. Re:Price of certainty. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm assuming you were at MREA's Energy Fair, since that was the biggest such show (that I'm aware of) on this past weekend.

      I wonder if I saw you there - the company I work for was an exhibitor, and I was there myself Sunday. We had thin-film solar panels on display.

    28. Re:Price of certainty. by raygundan · · Score: 1

      I believe a typical grid-tied setup is fully shut down when the grid goes down. It just makes things simpler-- while your PV array is probably sized to approximate your average load, it has no ability to handle your peak load, and it is subject to the whims of the weather from moment to moment. It would be really easy for you to be trying to draw 4kW while your system could only make 3kW, which would probably result in relatively nasty results.

      Battery-backed systems, on the other hand, will continue to run while disconnected from the grid, because the battery offers some ability to address the peak loads independent of what the panels are producing at any given moment.

    29. Re:Price of certainty. by ceoyoyo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The rest of the world does usually manage to get their oil without large militaries.

    30. Re:Price of certainty. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "I thought when the grid went down that synced panel set ups just cut them selves off from the grid, not that they cut them selves off from powering your home."

      It depends. With a grid-tie, non-hybrid system, the panel-provided power shuts off entirely from everything. With a hybrid grid-tie, you can still keep some (usually not all unless you have a giant system or unless you also have a generator) stuff running.

      The problem is that solar panels produce during those peaks, but if you need more watts than they're producing, it just wouldn't work. So with a hybrid system, you introduce a battery bank (more expense, gotta maintain 'em, they're bulky, etc.) to store some energy in for a grid outage, and often also have a backup generator for when the battery bank drains too low or if you need more watts than your solar + battery bank alone can provide.

      Lots more expensive than a simple grid-tie-only set-up.

    31. Re:Price of certainty. by pixelpusher220 · · Score: 1

      I don't think so ;-) MREA search returns stuff out west. I was at a show in Bristow, VA.

      linky

      --
      People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people :-D
    32. Re:Price of certainty. by pixelpusher220 · · Score: 1

      I won't claim to be an expert but I don't believe your idea will work for a Sync'd system; hybrid yes, but not Sync.

      You can't (or shouldn't) run household type appliances straight off your panels. The power produced is variable and lots of electrical stuff doesn't respond well to variances in voltage/amps etc. If the power goes out, likely you aren't home or are sleeping. So we'll assume you have enough panels to fully power your home's peak usage (this is an unusual setup in reality..just to $$$). Except that today it's cloudy and you aren't even getting your average draw of power. What happens to your equipment? you aren't home to power down the non-essentials, the AC kicks on and poof, you have your own personal brownout.

      You *can* install things that way, but from what I gathered reputable companies won't do it. The 'Sync' systems are only online when the grid is hot. Anything else requires lots of sizing and configuration issues that result in the hybrid systems that do what you are talking about. Those systems also have a battery bank that supplies *constant* power and is sized to provide your bare minimum power needs for X hours. This also requires a 2nd electrical panel be installed and the bare minimum circuits switched to that panel which can be run by the batteries (which are charged by the solar array).

      --
      People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people :-D
    33. Re:Price of certainty. by pixelpusher220 · · Score: 1

      Yes there is a good reason to stop producing power when the grid is down...

      It's called a system that isn't sized to meet your household needs. Most installed systems aren't sized to meet your household peak usage, so when the grid goes down, if you just disconnect from the grid but still try to run stuff inside, it will not have enough energy to run things.

      The other good reason is you don't run your house directly off of your solar arrays. You need a constant source of power, not variable like the array output. In Hybrid systems, this comes from the grid and when that's off, from the *batteries*. The panels only charge the batteries.

      The 'Sync' option is to eliminate the sizing requirements and just supply power. Hybrids are more complex, more $$$ but can do more things like what you are talking about.

      --
      People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people :-D
    34. Re:Price of certainty. by pixelpusher220 · · Score: 1

      It's not silly at all for a system that isn't designed to run 'off grid'. That's what the 'Sync' option is.

      The Hybrid systems can do what you are talking about but cost significantly more money and also include a battery bank to provide the power in a constant manner as opposed to the variable nature of the panels.

      --
      People in cars cause accidents....accidents in cars cause people :-D
    35. Re:Price of certainty. by Millennium · · Score: 1

      Is he not being realistic, though? Cap-and-trade will inevitably increase energy prices, initially to cover the overhead of the system itself while older energy sources are replaced, and later on because the market will have acclimated to these artificially high prices, such that the newer sources can get away with charging the same rates. Last I checked, this point wasn't even controversial; the real question is whether or not it's worth doing.

    36. Re:Price of certainty. by Kyont · · Score: 1

      Excellent points. Another thing is to consider what else he could have done with that money. I can't recall the source, but I read a couple years back an interview with a doctor, age 55 or so, who spent about this same amount on solar panels. To the doubters, who were saying he'll only get 90% of his money back on the investment, he won't live long enough to see a positive ROI, it's not truly green, etc., he essentially said, "Look, nobody would even blink if I spent $50K on a Lexus, which will be worth almost nothing in 10 years and cost me all kinds of insurance and maintenance money in the meantime. So if I spend $25K on a decent car and $25K on solar panels that almost kinda pay back in savings, I'm coming out way ahead of what most people in my position would do."

      --
      You shall see a cow on the roof of a cotton house.
    37. Re:Price of certainty. by adolf · · Score: 2, Informative

      It would be really easy for you to be trying to draw 4kW while your system could only make 3kW, which would probably result in relatively nasty results.

      Haven't you heard? They've got these new-fangled current-limiting devices. I heard a wizard -- I mean, an electrician -- talking about them the other day. I think he called them "fuses." He also said something about working on a new invention called a "circuit breaker," but he wouldn't tell me what it was supposed to do.

      *ahem*

      We could even get fancy, and build a device that automatically breaks the circuit when the voltage drops too low (which is really just a simple way of measuring current availability vs. usage). The cheapshit inverter in my work truck does this nicely. It'd even be fairly simple: Power goes out on a nice sunny day, PV system can't keep up with the load, and drops out. Mr. Homeowner then simply turns off the electric drier, tells the kids not to use the microwave and the TV at the same time, and pushes the reset button. If load gets to high (and voltage drops sufficiently), it cuts out again.

      I do question the utility of such a system, on the basis that I've only experienced meaningful power outages during occasions when it is decidedly NOT nice OR sunny. And if it goes out during the day, who cares anyway? You've still got light. *shrug*

    38. Re:Price of certainty. by adolf · · Score: 1

      Maybe he has to turn off the home LAN/WLAN, his big screen TV and not run the dryer or microwave but it's almost certainly possible for him to stay at or below his generation capacity unless it's the dead of the night.

      If the sun is still up, what's the point of having electricity if all that stuff is turned off? (And, no - "running the fridge" doesn't count. Fridge contents have been insured against power outages on every policy I've ever had, and ice is cheap and available.)

    39. Re:Price of certainty. by Buelldozer · · Score: 1

      What's the point of Electricity?

      Air Conditioning...or heating if it's winter time.

    40. Re:Price of certainty. by cant_get_a_good_nick · · Score: 1

      As we've seen in the credit crisis with AIG, Lehman, Bear Sterns, 'Counterparty Risk' is no longer just an abstraction. His guarantee is only as good as the capabilities of the people standing behind the guarantee. I'm not saying it's worthless, just it's not 100% either.

    41. Re:Price of certainty. by Tokerat · · Score: 1

      I thought when the grid went down that synced panel set ups just cut them selves off from the grid, not that they cut them selves off from powering your home.

      Yeah, that makes way more sense, and can't be that hard to implement (IBGTs, anyone?)

      --
      CAn'T CompreHend SARcaSm?
    42. Re:Price of certainty. by Tokerat · · Score: 1

      Don't tell me we need a military bigger than the rest of the world combined to protect us from Mexico and Canada.

      Since wars aren't started by marching armies of archers and horse cavalry anymore, I'd say we need a large military to protect us from just about anyone. Now, what we decide to use that military for when no one is attacking us is another story...

      --
      CAn'T CompreHend SARcaSm?
  12. 12 year payback? by Trip6 · · Score: 1

    Sorry, the payback needs to be under 3 years to have any chance at wide spread acceptance. Here's the cold hard reality: until we tax the living shit out of fossil fuel consumption, alternative energy sources will never gain traction.

    --
    I hate being bipolar; it's awesome!
    1. Re:12 year payback? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry, the payback needs to be under 3 years to have any chance at wide spread acceptance. Here's the cold hard reality: until we tax the living shit out of fossil fuel consumption, alternative energy sources will never gain traction.

      Or, you could find a way to make the sun shine all the time.

    2. Re:12 year payback? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, rather than taxing the living shit out of fossil fuel consumption, you could simply let the alternative energy developers continue to work on refining their tech until it is cheap enough to make sense. I think that's a much better solution than artificially jacking up prices for the competition thereby giving alternative energy sources absolutely NO incentive to improve cost of efficiency.

    3. Re:12 year payback? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Whew. Glad my energy company is providing me with clean and efficient nuclear power.

      And unless those taxes actually go directly and accountably TOWARD building those alternatives, count me out. This country has no proven track record for "sin" type taxes going toward anything solving the "sin" they are supposed to solve in the first place.

    4. Re:12 year payback? by Eponymous+Coward · · Score: 1

      I don't know if it is unique to Texas, but our realtor told us about a program where the state will finance a solar panel installation. Apart from the hefty incentives, it's a great program because it basically rolls the cost of the panels into your property taxes. It isn't exactly property taxes, but it is a fee that stays with the house. So, if you sell the house, the new owner takes over the payments. True, there are going to be people who aren't interested in solar panels, but there are plenty of people who are and it definitely eases the concern of taking on a big investment when statistically you are likely to move before you reach the point of a positive return.

      As soon as my house finishes construction, I'm looking into it. There's way too much sunshine here for me to not consider it.

      ac

    5. Re:12 year payback? by SquirrelsUnite · · Score: 1

      Sorry, the payback needs to be under 3 years to have any chance at wide spread acceptance. Here's the cold hard reality: until we tax the living shit out of fossil fuel consumption, alternative energy sources will never gain traction.

      Are you serious? 3 year payback time would be like printing money.

    6. Re:12 year payback? by ducomputergeek · · Score: 1

      We put solar up on our office roof last year. Met about 70% of our energy needs, but the main reason we did it was the fact we had enough cash in the bank to cover it and the choices were spent it or watch 40% goto uncle sam in the form of corporate income tax. None of the owners wanted to take anymore home due to then having to pay more in personal income tax.

      We looked at the various options and putting up solar panels made sense since it freed up enough cash flow to hire an extra jr. developer. That paid huge dividends this year as we were able to move 2 projects/products to market faster.

      All worked out well until we had a freak storm with 100MPH straight line winds that tore the panels off the roof a month ago and the insurance check isn't quite enough to cover replacing all the panels.

      --
      "The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other people's money" - Thatcher.
    7. Re:12 year payback? by ChefInnocent · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Why would they? That would dry up the revenue generated by the "sin".

    8. Re:12 year payback? by maxume · · Score: 1

      Exactly. That's often what it takes to attract every-man.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    9. Re:12 year payback? by Trip6 · · Score: 1

      I agree, but currently the alternative sources are so far away from feasibility that we need artificial market forces to drive them into widespread use. Increased competition lured by market demand will drive down costs more quickly. The obvious political gain of course is to free us from the clutches of the oil and gas industry.

      --
      I hate being bipolar; it's awesome!
    10. Re:12 year payback? by SquirrelsUnite · · Score: 1

      Exactly. That's often what it takes to attract every-man.

      That's confusing enough where I can't be completely sure you are wrong.

    11. Re:12 year payback? by maxume · · Score: 1

      Some dude who doesn't care about conservation or energy or whatever but his friend tells him about some panels he got at Walmart that are saving him big bucks every month.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    12. Re:12 year payback? by SquirrelsUnite · · Score: 1

      I don't know, when solar panel constructors and banks offer to install them for a monthly rate which is 80% of his electricity bill most people will listen.

      It's debatable whether solar power will catch on when the effective cost is 120% or 90% of the price of electricity. But to claim that people won't switch until it costs effectively one fifth of what they currently have is pretty strange.

  13. The real loss by digitalsolo · · Score: 1

    Not being able to get online because you used up all the power by forgetting to turn off the lights every time you left a room.

    --
    Just another ignorant American.
  14. RTFA by Kneo24 · · Score: 4, Insightful
    If you had RTFA you would see that the panels are quoted as having a 30 year warranty. So in 30 years. If they break down before that, he gets freebies, and I imagine those will produce more electricity. All in all, it's worth it.

    Futhermore, Wikipedia has this to say about Solar Panels and how efficient they are at a certain time frame:

    Solar panels must withstand heat, cold, rain and hail for many years. Many Crystalline silicon module manufacturers offer warranties that guarantee electrical production for 10 years at 90% of rated power output and 25 years at 80%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_module

    1. Re:RTFA by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      30 year warranties are like the pension guarantees offered to auto workers.

      In all my experience, only Sears was that reliable.

      Picture it this way... give me money today (a $20).. and I'll guarantee that I'll give you $80 in 30 years.

      Trust me.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  15. Summer months most important by elashish14 · · Score: 1

    Looking back at the 6-month summary and seeing how drastic the difference is, I think that's all that's worth it, isn't it? Summer is when we run our air conditions (sigh) most and therefore, is typically the season when power grids are under their greatest stress. So even if the price goes up a great deal in the winter (and still considerably less than without the panels), I would think that this is still a great resolution to the problem.

    Now the issue is just getting out the $$$ to pay for it up front and waiting for the investment to come back. You're not earning interest on that money....

    --
    I have left slashdot and am now on Soylent News. FUCK YOU DICE.
    1. Re:Summer months most important by samwichse · · Score: 1

      Yes, and if he'd invested that money 1 year ago, how much would he have earned? -30%?

      Sam

  16. "Spousal acceptance factor" by blind+biker · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Most of the time, if you care for your family, that's the #1 factor in your decisions. Unless your ambition is one of those short-lived, Hollywood marriages.

    --
    "The agriculture ministry is not in charge of Gundam" - Japanese ministry official.
    1. Re:"Spousal acceptance factor" by martinX · · Score: 1

      There's a gradient of spousal acceptance, from the flat out "NO, it's a dumb idea" to "OK, we'll try it but I don't want to be inconvenienced by your 'experiment' " to "Yep, works for me".

      You might not know where your plan lies on that gradient until you put into action so while SAF is very important, sometimes you just have to convince them to have a go before you can determine if it's a long term winner.

      IME, wives want stuff that works. They'll tolerate our crazy ideas as long as it doesn't interfere with keeping the kids clean and putting food on the table reliably. My wife loves the AV setup I have through the house and can use it but has said that when I die, she'll have to sell the lot because she has no idea how it all goes together.

      --
      When they came for the communists, I said "He's next door. Take him away. Goddam commies."
    2. Re:"Spousal acceptance factor" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's bullshit. If you're never allowed to do something selfish and just for yourself, you're going to start resenting the other person for it sooner or later.

    3. Re:"Spousal acceptance factor" by blind+biker · · Score: 1

      Hahahah, your wife reminds me a lot of mine.

      As for SAF: I see what you mean, but with a baby on the way, I'm starting to be more "mature" about things, myself, and am starting to think that having a synth rack *both* in the living room *and* in the bedroom maybe isn't such a great idea after all. I.E., I'm starting to change and anticipate my spouse's wants and priorities before she voices them.

      --
      "The agriculture ministry is not in charge of Gundam" - Japanese ministry official.
    4. Re:"Spousal acceptance factor" by IrquiM · · Score: 1

      Marriage is the new dating!

      --
      This is blinging
    5. Re:"Spousal acceptance factor" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Aren't you forgetting that what you want is every bit as important as what she wants?

    6. Re:"Spousal acceptance factor" by zazenation · · Score: 1

      Amen to that. Pleasing the spouse is certainly #1.

      But there is also the posibility that he was alluding to acts reserved for more intimate activities --- with increasing frquency and variety. But given the G nature of the article, fell under "spousal acceptance".

    7. Re:"Spousal acceptance factor" by zazenation · · Score: 1

      Amen to making your family #1.

      I was actually thinking more along the lines of references to increase in intensity and frequency of intimate activities between the green adopter and spouse.

      I believe that because it was a G rated article, references to "Spousal acceptance" would be the correct euphemism for "She's jumping my bones regularly now, and she wears articles from Victoria's Secret to bed".

      "Solar power works for me..."

    8. Re:"Spousal acceptance factor" by blind+biker · · Score: 1

      Oh. You mean *that*! I get it...

      BTW, I am very enthusiastic when it comes to my spousal duties in that department. You know, everything to please my missus.

      --
      "The agriculture ministry is not in charge of Gundam" - Japanese ministry official.
    9. Re:"Spousal acceptance factor" by martinX · · Score: 1

      Aren't you forgetting that what you want is every bit as important as what she wants?

      You're not married, are you?

      --
      When they came for the communists, I said "He's next door. Take him away. Goddam commies."
    10. Re:"Spousal acceptance factor" by blind+biker · · Score: 1

      Aren't you forgetting that what you want is every bit as important as what she wants?

      If what I want jeopardizes my family's (and ultimately, my own) happiness, then no, my wants are not my priority. I believe that if you are not ready to put your family's wants and needs before your own, you are not ready to be a father, either.

      --
      "The agriculture ministry is not in charge of Gundam" - Japanese ministry official.
  17. SunRun by syphax · · Score: 2, Informative

    Affordable solar for little money down

    If you live in CA, MA, or AZ, and have a roof with decent sun exposure, please check SunRun out.

    I've got nothing to do with them; I just think they have a winning method of making the cash flow of solar very attractive.

    --
    Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    1. Re:SunRun by Cross-Threaded · · Score: 1

      You need one more S word at the end of your sig to spell success correctly.

      --
      They call us sheeple, I wonder why?
  18. No, he's NOT saving money by chatgris · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Why people still routinely neglect compound interesting I'll never know. If he took that $38,000 and put it in a long term investment at a mere 5%, he'd had 68242.54 at the end of 12 years. Yes, it's green, yes, it's cool, but no, he's not saving money.

    --
    Open Your Mind. Open Your Source.
    1. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Grishnakh · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And what long term investment would that be that reliably makes 5%? If he had invested that $38k in just about any stock or mutual fund in the past year, he'd have lost at least 30% of its value.

    2. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why people still routinely neglect compound interesting I'll never know.

      If he took that $38,000 and put it in a long term investment at a mere 5%, he'd had 68242.54 at the end of 12 years.

      Yes, it's green, yes, it's cool, but no, he's not saving money.

      Except you're forgetting that if he did that he'd still have to pay the electrical bill or at least apparently 3.000 more a year...which he doesn't have to now..
      I'll leave it to you to conclude if 68.000 - 12*3.000 is more or less than 38.000

    3. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by AuMatar · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Also factor in taxes. If you invest and make $1000, you owe taxes on it. If you save $1000 there's no additional taxes as it was already your money.

      --
      I still have more fans than freaks. WTF is wrong with you people?
    4. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Volante3192 · · Score: 1

      And tax on the interest on top of that.

    5. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by CubeRootOf · · Score: 1

      I invested $22,000 two years ago, and know I have $19,000, and I think I'm doing pretty damn good. Compound interest? Doesn't interest me. I should have paid off my car and student loans.

    6. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Don't forget a second factor in taxes: complexity. If you save $1000, not only are there no additional taxes, but there's nothing to fill out on your IRS tax forms. Whereas if you invest and make $1000, that's yet more paperwork for you to fill out on April 14. The exception is if you get a big tax credit for buying solar equipment, in which case you probably won't mind the extra paperwork so much.

    7. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by hedwards · · Score: 1

      Only if he'd have sold it. If the time frame is 12 years, there's plenty of time to make the money back. And if one were to choose a high quality company, one might very well end up with more than an equivalen 5% interest rate.

      Assuming that one is savvy enough to manage stocks, but stupid enough to sell during the last bit of the down turn is kind of iffy.

    8. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Maybe he's more savvy at dealing with solar panels than with managing stocks.

      Not everyone is good with stocks, you know.

    9. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by tricorn · · Score: 1

      It makes more sense to do it as a loan calculation at a fixed interest rate; at a 5% interest rate and $250/month savings (that's used to pay off the loan), a $38,000 loan is paid off in 20 years. That's not taking into account the deterioration of the cells, nor any maintenance to batteries, but also assumes the cost of electricity is going to remain constant. If electricity rates increase and more than offset any decrease in the amount of power generated, the payoff time is less.

      At 7%, it's about 30 years to pay off. At 4% it's a bit under 18 years.

      At the end of the payoff period, it doesn't matter if the worth of the system has depreciated to zero. At worst you broke even; most likely some parts of the system are still useable, and the price of replacement panels will be very low, and efficiency much higher than it is now. It may even make economic sense to replace the panels sooner if you're still using any electricity off the grid.

    10. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Guysmiley777 · · Score: 3, Funny

      And what long term investment would that be that reliably makes 5%?

      This guy, Bernie Madoff, has a sure-fire guaranteed investment strategy that makes WAY more than 5% annually. He hasn't been returning my calls lately though, I'm sure he's just busy...

      --
      Coding with assembly is like playing with Legos. Coding an application in assembly is like building a car with Legos.
    11. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Zalbik · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And what long term investment would that be that reliably makes 5%? If he had invested that $38k in just about any stock or mutual fund in the past year, he'd have lost at least 30% of its value.

      Historically, almost any indexed fund provides 5%.

      Yes, the past year has been bad, but if we are discussing long term investments, there are numerous funds he could invest in to get a 5% rate of return.

    12. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 1

      And what long term investment would that be that reliably makes 5%? If he had invested that $38k in just about any stock or mutual fund in the past year, he'd have lost at least 30% of its value.

      The stock market would be that long-term investment. The DJIA has averaged 12%/year for the last 70 years or so. Yes, there are dips every now and then, but that doesn't change the long-term. You're arguing against the "long-term" using the "short-term", which doesn't make sense.

      The guy who spent $38,000 to save $3,000 is really bad with math if he thinks he's "saving" anything. That money would have served him better in the stock market. Still, there's more to this than money, and if he feels that it's useful to be using solar energy, it's not a bad idea. I like it myself.

      But it cannot be argued from a purely numerical standpoint.

    13. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by syphax · · Score: 1

      I'd say the same for electricity prices...

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    14. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Zalbik · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Why people still routinely neglect compound interesting I'll never know. If he took that $38,000 and put it in a long term investment at a mere 5%, he'd had 68242.54 at the end of 12 years. Yes, it's green, yes, it's cool, but no, he's not saving money.

      Why people still routinely neglect compound interest I'll never know.

      If he takes the $3000 he saves in electricity costs every year and invests that at 5%, he'll have $47,751.38 at the end of 12 years.

      With your scenario, he has $68,242 but he will have paid $36,000 in electricity, leaving him with $32,242 if he "cashes out".

      Personally, I'd take $47000 over $32000 any day.

    15. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by ArsonSmith · · Score: 1

      You start by asking about long term investments then compare that with short term loss. 100% of all 12 year periods the stock market has grown. Look at the lowest point during the great depression and it was still higher than the market was 12 years earlier.

      --
      Paying taxes to buy civilization is like paying a hooker to buy love.
    16. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by ArsonSmith · · Score: 1

      What you are missing is that he is getting rid of the expense of the electric bill. If he dropped his monthly average by $300 then the investment is really only $2k. A payment of $300mo * 10 years is $36k he was not going to be able to invest at all.

      --
      Paying taxes to buy civilization is like paying a hooker to buy love.
    17. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by jonbryce · · Score: 4, Informative

      The last 70 years or so ago takes you from just after the wall street crash. That's probably not the most representative time frame. If you had invested just before the wall street crash, your investment would still have underperformed compared to a cash investment after all this time.

    18. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by jonbryce · · Score: 2, Informative

      It took until 1954 for the stock market to recover to its 1929 peak.

    19. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      Personally, I'd take $47000 over $32000 any day.

      Yeah? What about Opposite Day?

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    20. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also factor in taxes. If you invest and make $1000, you owe taxes on it. If you save $1000 there's no additional taxes as it was already your money.

      Part of me wonders how long it will be until the Democrats find a way to tax you for the money you save.

    21. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Long-bond yield has been between 4% and 5% of late. If you're willing to take on even a modicum of risk you could beat 5% pretty easily. And let's not pretend that paying $38k for solar panels is at least as risky as a high-yield bond.

    22. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by selven · · Score: 1

      You forgot to compound the money he pays for electricity.

    23. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Not very long. They're already talking seriously in some states (Oregon, and I think Mass.) about installing GPS devices in everyone's car so that their driving can be tracked, and all miles logged on roads in-state are taxed. They want to do this because apparently too many people are driving hybrids and small fuel-efficient cars, so tax revenues from gas taxes are decreasing, so they want to tax everyone equally based on the number of miles they drive.

      And I thought Democrats were interested in environmentalism and getting people out of Hummers. Guess I thought wrong.

    24. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Zalbik · · Score: 1

      You forgot to compound the money he pays for electricity.

      Huh? (or is that a whooshing sound I hear?)

      Why would I compound the money he pays? It's doesn't earn very much (for him) after he's paid it.

    25. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And what long term investment would that be that reliably makes 5%?

      Index funds. Even during the great depression you'd get more than 5% average yearly return over 25 years.

    26. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by mgblst · · Score: 1

      What an ignorant statement. So he can invest the money he saved by not buying the panels, but not the money he saves each months from electricity saving.

      Why people still think like morons I'll never know, and the lengths you anti-enviros will go to make it look bad have no end.

    27. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What if he takes the $35000 left over after a year of not getting solar panels and invests that instead?

    28. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      You might want to look a 1962 to 1982.

      And several other similar periods.

      Only bonds are safe. Equities are never safe and you can get zero return for a couple decades.

      If your time frame is 100 years, then cool. But as as a human being, from the time you are 40 until you are 60, you could get zero return on your money while inflation ate half of it's purchasing power.

      I like his solar idea because it is very bond like.

      He has an almost certain rate of return (unless electricity drops in price).

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    29. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You forgot the $38,000 he lost the first year buying all that crap for his house.

      You were snotty, and almost funny, and yet you fail.

    30. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why people still routinely neglect compound interest I'll never know.

      If he takes the $3000 he saves in electricity costs every year and invests that at 5%, he'll have $47,751.38 at the end of 12 years.

      Any why people still routinely neglect the cost of capital *I'll* never know. He won't have 47k after 12 years because he's starting 30k in the hole. After 12 years he'll have 47 - 30 = $17k, vs. the 32k he'd have if he invested in a 5% bond.

    31. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't think you're making equal comparisons.  You appear to be giving him an extra $3000/yr to work with for the buy-the-solar-panels option.  Let's start with the assumption that he has $38000 and $3000/yr to spend on electricity.  He can:

      1.  Invest the $38000 immediately, and spend his $3000/yr on electricity.  This gives him $68242 after 12 years of compound interest.
      2.  Spend the $38000 on solar panels, and invest his $3000/yr.  This gives him $47751 after 12 years of compound interest.

      Obviously, option 1 looks better.  I think what you did was make the following comparisons, giving an unfair advantage to the spend-$38000-on-solar-panels option:

      Choice 1:  He has $38000 and $3000/yr to spend on electricity.  He uses the $38000 on solar panels and invests the $3000/yr.  He has $47751 after 12 years.
      Choice 2:  He has $38000 but DOES NOT HAVE $3000/yr to spend on electricity.  He invests the $38000, but now has to spend $3000/yr from the invested $38000.  He only has $32242 after 12 years.

      You have to give him that $3000/yr in both scenarios, or neither.  And if you give it to him in neither, he'll have $32000 after 12 years without the solar panels, and $0 with them.

    32. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      wow you are double counting the 3000 he saves in electricity cost

    33. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't think you're making equal comparisons. You appear to be giving him an extra $3000/yr to work with for the buy-the-solar-panels option. Let's start with the assumption that he has $38000 and $3000/yr to spend on electricity. He can:

      1. Invest the $38000 immediately, and spend his $3000/yr on electricity. This gives him $68242 after 12 years of compound interest.
      2. Spend the $38000 on solar panels, and invest his $3000/yr. This gives him $47751 after 12 years of compound interest.

      Obviously, option 1 looks better. I think what you did was make the following comparisons, giving an unfair advantage to the spend-$38000-on-solar-panels option:

      Choice 1: He has $38000 and $3000/yr to spend on electricity. He uses the $38000 on solar panels and invests the $3000/yr. He has $47751 after 12 years.
      Choice 2: He has $38000 but DOES NOT HAVE $3000/yr to spend on electricity. He invests the $38000, but now has to spend $3000/yr from the invested $38000. He only has $32242 after 12 years.

      You have to give him that $3000/yr in both scenarios, or neither. And if you give it to him in neither, he'll have $32000 after 12 years without the solar panels, and $0 with them.

      Thank You. Slashdoters and techies in general think they know everything even outside their subject range. All you need is a basic finance class to come up with the numbers you give.

    34. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What you are doing is discounting everything but his 3000/month. You compound it at 5%, but refuse to discount it when you are calculating the cash outflows.

      So effectively you have made the 3000/month $36000

      When it should be discounted at 5% as well.

      So your argument looks good, but is invalid as you need to use the future values of the $3000/month cash flows.

    35. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Kijori · · Score: 1

      Not quite - you're subtracting the money he spends on electricity in the "no solar panels" case, but not the money he spends on solar panels in the "solar-panels" case. More accurate is to say:

      If he buys the solar panels
      - $38,000 for the panels
      + $3,000 per year for the electricity saved, reinvested at 5% giving $47,751.38
      total: $9,751.38

      If he doesn't buy them:
      + $38,000 invested at 5% gives $68,242
      - $3,000 per year in electricity giving - $36,000
      total: $32,242

      You can't count the 36k for the electricity but not the 38k for the panels.

      Of course, there are plenty of other factors that could make this a good investment; changes to the resale value of the house, inflation or increases in electricity price for example, although it's worth remembering that things could potentially swing against him as well.

    36. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sheesh. It's not an investment until he reaches the break-even point, somewhere around 10-12 years down the road. The 5-6% profits don't start until after he breaks even.

    37. Re:No, he's NOT saving money by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      You won't be saying that when you're experiencing rolling blackouts and your neighbors with solar panels are still enjoying their refrigerators, computers, TVs, etc. while you sit in the dark.

  19. Yes, But Not Necessarily By A Lot by Kneo24 · · Score: 1

    Many Crystalline silicon module manufacturers offer warranties that guarantee electrical production for 10 years at 90% of rated power output and 25 years at 80%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_module

    Now I read his initial article close to a year ago, so I don't remember what type he got, or if it even specifically mentions it. However his panels are rated to last 30 years. I imagine the warranty specifically mentions how much they will output as their life increases. It should be fairly obvious to see if it's putting out what it should be in those 30 years. If they don't, well, his warranty will cover that.

  20. Solar is not competitive by rockytopchip · · Score: 1

    If solar technology and price were close to being competitive with conventional energy (coal in my case) then you would see many small solar deployments by consumers as well as large solar deployments by businesses and even power utilities themselves.

    1. Re:Solar is not competitive by Cross-Threaded · · Score: 1

      While I agree that solar is not exactly cost competitive, are you taking into account the costs that can be saved by not having to run your coal plant? Not just the actual cost of operation, but the environmental costs, too?
      .
      (I don't have the answer, but it seems to me that every solar installation that goes in reduces those costs, too.)

      --
      They call us sheeple, I wonder why?
  21. And thanks, too by hyades1 · · Score: 1

    By being an early adopter, Loyd also helps the technology to gain acceptance, which helps everybody who chooses solar later on. Acceptance = economies of scale = lower price. Assuming energy prices stay roughly where they are or rise, people who come after Loyd will reach their break even point much sooner, even assuming further innovation doesn't cut the price of solar even more.

    --
    I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
  22. 10 years to get an ROI? by Meor · · Score: 1

    This guy is happy his wife doesn't understand numbers and is pleased with a 10 year ROI?

    1. Re:10 years to get an ROI? by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      Please tell us what investments you use that have a nearly guaranteed 7%+ ROE.

    2. Re:10 years to get an ROI? by NuShrike · · Score: 1

      How about the stock market? As bad as the recent recession has been, it'll still be about ~10% ROI in 10 YEARS.

    3. Re:10 years to get an ROI? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      You sure about that? There's economists who think it's going to get even worse, and it's possible we'll have hyperinflation soon.

  23. A lot of good that warranty is going to do... by Lead+Butthead · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Now I read his initial article close to a year ago, so I don't remember what type he got, or if it even specifically mentions it. However his panels are rated to last 30 years. I imagine the warranty specifically mentions how much they will output as their life increases. It should be fairly obvious to see if it's putting out what it should be in those 30 years. If they don't, well, his warranty will cover that.

    ... if the company in question is still around to stand behind it. I get a laugh out of roofers that offer 50 year guarantee on roofs when they know full well they themselves are unlike to be around by then. A lot can happen in 30 years.

    --
    ELOI, ELOI, LAMA SABACHTHANI!?
    1. Re:A lot of good that warranty is going to do... by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      ... if the company in question is still around to stand behind it. I get a laugh out of roofers that offer 50 year guarantee on roofs when they know full well they themselves are unlike to be around by then. A lot can happen in 30 years.

      Oh, they'll probably be around in that time, but it won't be the same company. There's a lot of fraud in construction (or was, during the housing boom, not that I imagine it all went away), and it was pretty common for a roofer to set up shop, bang out some piss-poor work while promising the world, and then fold the "company" and reform under a different name before anyone could come to claim their warranty -- or bring the law to bear against the sonovabitch.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
  24. Cost of Equipment now by jj00 · · Score: 1

    There always seems to be new breakthroughs in solar technology all the time. I wonder how much the cost of his original equipment is going to go down over the new few years. How much his original setup cost today?

    He is obviously an early adopter, so I also wonder if he'll continue to just upgrade his equipment before getting a return from his investment. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but the person who might best benefit from this experiment is his neighbor (assuming they get any old equipment).

    1. Re:Cost of Equipment now by vertinox · · Score: 1

      He is obviously an early adopter, so I also wonder if he'll continue to just upgrade his equipment before getting a return from his investment.

      When is the last time you or the company you worked upgraded their computers?

      Same difference.

      --
      "I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
      -Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
  25. Uh! UH! UH! Can I?! by denzacar · · Score: 1

    High start-up costs, VERY specific location prerequisites and 10 year ROE window?

    Plus, it is not a commercial-sized solution, but a family home solution. No one said you can just scale it up.

    --
    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
  26. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  27. Breakeven is longer than 12 years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The system would need to be 100% maintenance free to have a 12 year break-even. And, no on-the-grid based innovation can show up that provides less expensive power in those 12 years for the case to be valid. Still, the feel-good, do-good and be proud of what you accomplished factor make this interesting and satisfying.

  28. More power? by highfidelitychris · · Score: 1

    Based on his power bills on all times other than the summer, it seems like he should have installed another panel or two. He could potentially have sold back the power during the summer months and had less utility bills during the winter. Since his energy pricing is tiered, it would make sense to knock off the high-end of use as much as possible.

  29. $250 a month savings on electricity?!?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If he's spending $3000 a year on electricity, I imagine there are lots of better ways to save money and conserve power. That's $250 a month. Even a small grow operation, electric heating in the winter and air conditioning in the summer doesn't come close to that.

    1. Re:$250 a month savings on electricity?!?! by Timmmm · · Score: 1

      Just what I was thinking. That's nearly half my rent!

  30. If anyone is interested in a solar water heater... by ericberm · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I've written a blog on my solar water heater which covers about the same year period as Loyd's solar panels about 100 miles north of Sunnyvale. Loyd's story is very useful to me as I've been debating if solar panels would improve the efficiency of the solar water heater. I'm still not sure this was a wise financial investment, but I do like how I get free hot water when the sun is out and the hot water never runs out (like with a tankless). Anyway, for those interested in solar water heating: http://suburbiasolarwaterheating.blogspot.com/

  31. Re:Going green takes some green. by Eponymous+Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Check into your state and local programs. I live in Texas and there are some very significant incentives available. I copied this from http://www.solarpowerrocks.com/texas/

    EXAMPLE 3kW SYSTEM HOME INSTALL IN AUSTIN TEXAS

    So, if you were to install a 3 kW system that would be about $27,000 ($9.00/Watt x 3,000 Watts). In this example youâ(TM)d be in line to receive the maximum incentive of $13,500. The Fed offers a 30% incentive in the form of a tax credit with no cap. Assuming you have the tax liability, youâ(TM)re in line to deduct another $8,100 (30% x $27,000). Now, youâ(TM)re at a net cost after year 1 of $5,400. This is a lot more palatable. Just think, this energy upgrade is also property tax exempt and youâ(TM)ll realize an immediate property value increase of 20 times your annual electricity bill savings. In this example, a 3kW system will increase your property value by about $9,600 ($40/mo savings x 12 = $480; $480 x 20 years = $9,600).

  32. Hailstorm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I live in the US and just experienced my 3rd major hailstorm in 5 years (I consider golf-ball size and larger as major). My guess is that any of the 3 would have significantly reduced the 'return on investment'. It's kind of hilarious, because after the last hailstorm, SEVERAL HUNDRED new roofs are being installed along a 3 mile stretch. If all of those were solar, that would be SEVERAL HUNDRED x ~$30,000 instead of SEVERAL HUNDRED x ~$5000.

    1. Re:Hailstorm by ChefInnocent · · Score: 1

      Your numbers are a little off. A solar installation is more than just the panels. The batteries and power converters are likely to be just fine even after a hail storm. It is probably still more than the base $5000 for a normal roof, but certainly less than the $30000. Plus, some panels may survive. To address your point though, solar isn't for everyone. You might consider wind instead. Myself, I've been looking into a combination of both.

    2. Re:Hailstorm by gbjbaanb · · Score: 1

      the trouble with wind micro-generation is that the wind doesn't flow smoothly (or fast) near the ground. This is why commercial windmills are huge. Also, its very easy to get bursts of wind that are just too much for the windmill - the good ones have clutches - or not to get enough wind. So wind may sound really nice, but it's not something you could stick on your chimney and get lots of power. If you have a turbine on a tall pole in the bottom of your garden, you'll get more from it.

      After reading up on this a while ago (here, different site now - tech has improved), it was apparent that solar had more potential than wind.

      Incidentally, subsidy is the key - you can get 30% off the cost (limited to $4k) of turbines.

    3. Re:Hailstorm by ChefInnocent · · Score: 1

      I forgot that some people have yards barely larger than their house. So for them, they may not be able to reasonably get wind or solar on their property.

  33. Life expectancy? by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1, Redundant

    Despite the $38,000 initial cost for the setup, Loyd is very optimistic after a $3,000 savings in one year, meaning that in about 12 years he will break even -- though he suspects ten years is a better estimate considering other factors.

    How long are these solar panels supposed to last? Does their efficiency fall off with age?

    --
    There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    1. Re:Life expectancy? by geekoid · · Score: 1

      His warranty is for 30 years.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    2. Re:Life expectancy? by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      His warranty is for 30 years. But if the efficiency of the solar cells falls of enough, the break even point could be pushed out to, or even beyond end of life. And, if efficiency falls off fast enough, the end of USEFUL life could come before the break even point

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
  34. Overengineered waste of money by NuShrike · · Score: 2, Interesting

    He could've spent a fraction of that $38K to reduce his power bills to something closer to $100 per month. Better insulation, more energy efficient PSs in his computers, not leaving electronics on 24/7, change out to CF bulbs, and so on -- seriously!

    He's going to hit Jevon's Paradox and end up not actually saving anything, IMO.

    I'm more in support of community solar (have the HOA do it, or in a park, etc) which is more beneficial and lower cost. Mass solar.

    1. Re:Overengineered waste of money by hoojus · · Score: 1

      How do you know he has not done this already? My wife and I just installed a set of solar panels and to assist in electricity reduction we have ensured our house is fully insulated, have also had our roof restored and painted lighter colour (we live in a hot climate) and are now saving to install double glazed windows. With the Australian governments 8000 AUD rebate we calculated that with the savings in usage it was still a good return on investment. Additionally in Australia the government has mandated a 40c/kW payment by electricity companies (so I get more tax dollars back) and the company I am with will pay the same as the charge me (19c/kW) on top of that. Also we worked out that it changes your usage habit we turn everything off at home during the day except for the fridge.

    2. Re:Overengineered waste of money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The two aren't mutually exclusive. He can do both and end up selling power back to the grid.

  35. This is not a lot of power.... by tacokill · · Score: 1, Troll

    While I am impressed at this project, all it proves to me is that solar is a LONG way off from a practical, cost effective implementation. Take a look at how much electricity was generated out of his system each month. He says numbers anywhere from 258 KWh (Dec) up to around 1100 KWh (July).

    Last month (May), I used about 2500 KWh in my 2000 sq ft home. Yes, I am sure I can be more energy conscious but as you can see, the solar panels would hardly make a dent in my electricity bill compared to the initial investment cost. And what if it's cloudy like the recent 25 straight days of rain we had in May? Heck, 2500 KWh is not even my worst month. We still have July and August coming up. I can easily hit 3500 KWh during those months.

    What that tells me is this: No matter how you slice it, the electric company in my area produces cheap electricity a LOT easier than I can on my rooftop.

    The other two things I noticed are: 1) he consumes an unusually low amount of energy and 2) PG&E is screwing it's customers with those rates he lists. Wow. Go build some power plants, people. Your NIMBY attitude is making it more expensive.

    1. Re:This is not a lot of power.... by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Cutting your power bill by a 1/3 is'nt worth it to you?
      I wonder what you pay.

      You consume a high amount of electricity, actually.

      Yes, they should be building Solar Thermal plants all over the place.
      And IFRs

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    2. Re:This is not a lot of power.... by syphax · · Score: 1

      Dude- you use 2500 kWh a MONTH? In MAY? Yes, you are correct, you could be more energy conscious!

      According to the EIA residential consumption survey,, the region with the highest electricity consumption is the South (due to A/C); a typical house there uses about 15,000 kWh / year.

      15k is an average of 1250 kWh per month, but of course there's a strong seasonal component. If you're using 3500 kWh a month, though, consider an energy audit (often free or cheap through your utility) or turning off the 24/7 toaster, or something- you're throwing money out the window, even at $0.05/kWh or whatever you're paying.

      Brian

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    3. Re:This is not a lot of power.... by not-my-real-name · · Score: 1

      Then it doesn't make sense for *you* to put solar on your roof. However, just because it doesn't make sense for you doesn't mean it doesn't make sense for him.

      --
      un-ALTERED reproduction and dissimination of this IMPORTANT information is ENCOURAGED
    4. Re:This is not a lot of power.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wow. 2500 KWh is a lot of juice. You growing some plants inside or something? ;)

      I have a 2200sq ft house with a pool and and am using around 900-1200 kwh per month.

      With our tiered electrical rates here in CA, 2500Kwh would cost about $1100.

    5. Re:This is not a lot of power.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wow! Their solution to a problem isn't your solution to a problem. How the fuck does that work?

      Are you dense or are you just purposely trying to be a jerk off?

      No solution is a catch all. Get over it. And you're wasting energy somewhere without good cause. I'm sure of it from your numbers. Getting your head out of your ass might help your cause.

    6. Re:This is not a lot of power.... by benjamindees · · Score: 2, Insightful

      He doesn't consume a low amount of energy. He's actually pretty close to average for a household that isn't 100% electric appliances. You, on the other hand, consume an ungodly amount of energy.

      Since I'm guessing you don't live in a desert, 2500 kWh in a 2000 sq ft home during a rainy month is ridiculously high. What do you do for a living that allows you to be able to afford such lunacy and still not recognize that your AC isn't working properly or you have something wired wrong? Do you grow pot in your house or something? Are you a stripper?

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    7. Re:This is not a lot of power.... by tacokill · · Score: 1

      LOL...no, I don't have my own personal garden. It's an old home (1946) and I have a lot of PC's/elect equipment in there. So many that I trip my ancient breakers from time to time if a vacuum cleaner is plugged into the wrong port.

      I am a bit surprised at the reaction to my numbers. They aren't at all unusual for where I live and yes, I have asked around and compared. I guess California is more expensive for the same amount of power. Color me unsurprised since they haven't built a power plant in that state for over 20+ years....

      We have plenty of power and plenty of power plants where I am. Power, just isn't an issue at the moment. It's extremely cheap...

  36. Less comsumption by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Our family has PG&E and our monthly average for electricity is $60 or $720/yr.
    We use less without solar panels.

    WhatMeWorry!

    1. Re:Less comsumption by Cross-Threaded · · Score: 1

      Damn those C and D batteries are expensive, aren't they?

      --
      They call us sheeple, I wonder why?
    2. Re:Less comsumption by dinodriver · · Score: 1

      We don't have new energy efficient appliances, don't really even think about saving electricity, have the usual amount of stuff and still...our May bill, for a family of four, in a 1600 sq. ft. house in the SF Bay Area was 340 KwH for $41. What am I doing wrong that I'm not burning 2500 KwH a month? Ha!

  37. I'm in my 5th year and have statistics by skidisk · · Score: 5, Informative

    I deployed solar panels when I replaced my roof in 2004; the total out of pocket cost after state rebates and federal and state taxes was $14,612. The system generates about 15 KwH on a good day; I live in a tract home in Mountain View, CA. So far, the panels have generated 19,225 KwH, which reduced my energy bill by $10,392 as of May, 2009. I've not seen the expected degradation in the power production, but it's difficult to measure due to changes in the weather -- it's entirely possible that 2004-2005 were cloudier than 2007-2008, or something like that. In any event, the system has delivered between 3819 and 3930 KwH every year. I'm extraordinarily happy with the way this has worked out.

  38. roof repair? by Mike_K · · Score: 1

    I noticed that they put the solar panels on rails on top of his roof. What happens when he needs to redo his shingles? This needs to be done every 10-15 years (at least in Toronto, where my parents live).

    Who takes the panels down, the rails and then re-installs the whole thing? Or does the fact that the shingles get less exposure to the sun and snow mean that they won't have to be redone for a longer period of time? (which would be another savings)

    m

  39. 1363kWh in one month?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What the hell has he in that house?!!?
    Last may I consumed 111kWh!! And that man 302kWh only from the grid, not counting the solar panels!

    1. Re:1363kWh in one month?! by avandesande · · Score: 2, Interesting

      the article conveniently left out mention of the 'grow room'

      --
      love is just extroverted narcissism
    2. Re:1363kWh in one month?! by Magada · · Score: 1

      It's still too much, even if he forgot to mention there is such a facility installed. Two words: light pipes.

      --
      Something bad is coming when people are suddenly anxious to tell the truth.
  40. Re:Going green takes some green. by geekoid · · Score: 1

    There are state program, federal incentives.
    SO thre are avenues, but yes, they'll cost you money. Shocking.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  41. One thing is missing though: by Hurricane78 · · Score: 1

    What type of cells are these? Are they already these new super-cheap printable ones, including the lenses on top of them, and the higher efficiency types?

    I will switch my car and house energy to 100% solar, in the next 10 years. No doubt about that. So I hope I will get these new cells. I mean think of a price of $3800 instead of $38000, and double the efficiency. Anyone not buying them would be stupid, because it would be the cheapest energy you could get.

    I just hope they will print those cells on the cars too. In case you are far away from home, your batteries are empty, and maybe there isn't even a solar-powered power outlet in the area...

    --
    Any sufficiently advanced intelligence is indistinguishable from stupidity.
  42. Wrong - tax free muni's by tacokill · · Score: 1

    Tax free municipal bonds currently pay around 4-5%.

    So no...taxes aren't the problem. GP post still stands. Compound interest must be considered.

    1. Re:Wrong - tax free muni's by schmiddy · · Score: 1

      A yield of 5% on a 10-year tax-exempt municipal bond would be very generous indeed, especially if you're in a high tax bracket. California 10-year notes are currently yielding a bit under 5% -- and I'd be pretty darn cautious about buying California's debt at this point.

      --
      http://cltracker.net -- powerful craigslist multi-city search
  43. Wow California energy is expensive by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    During his peak month (Dec) he used 1369 kw/hr, costing $333.96.

    My peak month was July 08, using 3586 kw/hr, costing $368.53. (Pool and A/C in Oklahoma)

    My total cost for the last 12 months was: $2393, his was $1460. And he has solar panels, and I've got a 28 yr old house...

    Sadly this indicates how incredibly cheap energy is in some parts of the country. However much I'd love to have Wind power or Solar power (I've looked into it more than a few times), it makes no economic sense until the cost of energy goes way up, and the cost of the technology goes down...

  44. I got the same results with no investment by frankgod · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I also live in Sunnyvale and my power bill is even less than his post-solar level. The reason is that I live in a small apartment instead of a house!

    Living green is nice, but living small is far better.

    1. Re:I got the same results with no investment by samwichse · · Score: 1

      Living small is living green, really.

      Sam

  45. Cheaper, Greener ways to improve your house by Laoping · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Now I don't want to criticize to harshly, but I think he could have done been much more green for less money. Now the obvious thing he could do would be to downsize his house once his kids are a ways. How big of a house do two people need.

    Apart from that there are several other cheaper things you can do. I have tried to "Green" up my house a lot too, however I live in Minnesota so solar panels are even a worst investment. But here goes.. list of cheaper green things that I do.

    1. When a bulb goes out I replace it with a CFL. hen can be expensive so when I see them on sale for a $1 each I grab a few. I do not recommend replacing all you light bulbs at once because that gets expensive, but when one goes out, go for it.

    2. New windows - this was my most expensive energy improvement. $9,000, but it did make my house quieter and drop my heating bill by 45%... My old windows will really bad.

    3. My furnace and A/C.... probably don't need that efficient of a furnace where he lives, but in Minnesota, I am rocking the 95% efficient furnace. The furnace and new windows dropped my worst heating bill (January) from $240 to $105. I save between 500 and 600 a year in heating. (Again my windows were REALLY bad)

    4. Whole House Fan.. I got one from http://www.airscapefans.com/

    You turn off your A/C at night, and pull in fresh air. It uses much less power than you A/C, on low the smallest model only uses 38 watts. And for a cost between $500 - $1300, they do not hurt the wallet too much.

    Well anyway..

  46. Re:Going green takes some green. by syphax · · Score: 1

    Low up-front in MA, AZ, CA: SunRun

    Bulk purchase groups: 1BOG

    --
    Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
  47. Still not practicle by NIK282000 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The power output on this is still pitiful. His system is supposed to give him 8,721kW hours per year (see his installation article). So that means the numbers work out like this if you wanted to know how much you could power from such a setup.

    (((8721 kW) * 1 hours) / (365 * 24hours)) = 995.547945 watts.

    That is less then 1 regular circuit (8.2962 amps on a 120 volt load). That is just about enough to power your fridge given that it cycles on and many times a day. 38,000$ is a lot of money to spend running your fridge.

    The real reason this works for him is that he was taking it in the hoop from the power company and he has that "green mentality" where quality of life can be compromised in favor of "being green." He would have probably saved more in the long run if he invested the money (some where that didn't tank in the past year) and just turned off lights and switched to lower power devices. For the average geek power consumption of desktop PCs routers, battery changers and home entertainment equipment exceeds the the total amount of power generated over the year, its just not worth it for the average person.

    --
    Dear aunt, let's set so double the killer delete select all
    1. Re:Still not practicle by maxume · · Score: 2, Informative

      My fridge, TV, laptop and external monitor were the big devices running when I ran out and timed my power meter (I wanted to catch the fridge while the compressor was on, so I only timed it for 1/5 of a revolution, so these numbers are probably only decent).

      Anyway, it turns out they were drawing a total of less than 350 watts (my meter has a Kh of 7.2 and 1/5 of a turn took 16 seconds, making one revolution 80 seconds; (3600 * 7.2) / 80 = 324.

      If your refrigerator averages 900 watts, freaking replace it.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
  48. Fuzzy math! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So where did that $38,000 come from? Did it just drop out of the sky?

    Assuming you have to borrow the money, you have to subtract the interest costs from whatever savings you get.

    If the loan was for 8%, he's losing money.

    And don't forget that he probably took advantage of some state or federal rebates. That only works well for the individual iff only a few people take advantage of it.

    Overall, the numbers don't look very promising.

  49. *gasp* You figured it out, he's screwed! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    These questions have already been asked like 50 bajillion times.

    That aside... His panels are insured for 30 years. Typical panels are guaranteed to operate at 90% efficiency after 10 years and 80% efficiency after 20-25ish years.

  50. Repaginate + CSSViewer + Stylish by HTH+NE1 · · Score: 1

    The article is spread annoyingly over multiple pages, like everything at the site, and the print version omits the graphs.

    Things like that is why I have Repaginate installed, and for sites where I use it regularly, I keep a special style in Stylish that removes the redundant information. So far I just use that for Amazon.com when looking through upcoming DVD releases by date, identifying what classes to suppress using CSSViewer.

    Before using Stylish, I used EditCSS + CSSViewer to build the rules I needed. It's been awhile since I've needed to build new rules.

    --
    Oh, say does that Star-Spangled Banner entwine / The myrtle of Venus with Bacchus's vine?
  51. Large seasonal power output variation by Tweenk · · Score: 1

    Solar panels on the roof are great, and if I lived in a hotter climate I would probably look into buying some, but please not use this story as support for "we don't need centralized energy generation". I'll show you why. Look at the chart "monthly output" on this page: http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,2845,2338837,00.asp

    In December, the panels generate only about 20% of what they do in July. A five-fold variation is a BIG one. He obviously could not disconnect himself from the grid - he had to rely on an external power source during the whole winter. There is no storage technology to alleviate this - right now you simply cannot store large amounts of energy for 6 months with anything resembling decent efficiency. That's why we need a mix of energy sources, and it's rather unlikely that we will ever be able to satisfy our energy needs with 100% renewables.

    --
    Those who would give up liberty to obtain working drivers, deserve neither liberty nor working drivers.
    1. Re:Large seasonal power output variation by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      We have had the technology for economical seasonal energy storage at over 50% efficiency for fifty years. That may not sound like much, but efficiency is meaningless when production costs are low enough. Your post is a bit hyperbolic.

      In fact, soon other planets will have it too.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
  52. Consider this vs the StockMarket by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

    If he had put $38,000 in the market 12 months ago, it would be worth a lot less.

    He has a near guaranteed rate of return of 7.8% which is the average for the stock market.
    Further, he doesn't have to pay taxes on that return (it's money not spent, not money earned).

    When he retires, he won't have to take $4,900 a year out of his 401k/ira (and pay $900 in income taxes) to pay his power bill. (and that only gets higher going forward-- 50% income tax is possible as we struggle to pay for social security in 15 years).

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  53. WTF is this madness? by atramentum · · Score: 0, Redundant

    I takes about as much energy to produce a solar panel as it will generate in it's lifetime. It's not "going green" at all, just an intelligent way of passing off an expensive product to a populace that doesn't understand. Shielding from heat while generating power with solar panels in the summer makes great sense, but that is a niche solution for one energy problem.

    1. Re:WTF is this madness? by aXis100 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That's bogus. Repeating from my other post -

      Simple economics - the cost of manufacture is factored into the sale price. If the panels eventually pay for themselves, then that covers the manufacture costs - electrical, raw materials or otherwise. Sure the factory might get a better price for electricity than regular consumers, but there's also raw materials, labour and profit that's included in the price tag.

    2. Re:WTF is this madness? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The cost of manufacture and the energy required to build it are two entirely different things.

      It's cheap to run my car, but the energy contained in the gasoline is tremendous.

  54. SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by DRAGONWEEZEL · · Score: 3, Interesting

    All I keep seeing around here is the depreciating power generation of solar panels... blah blah blahh...

    It takes maybe an hour of your time, and ~$100-200/panel to replace 20 panels.

    If in 15 years, he buys new panels, with better efficiency, for 4k, and an hours worth of his time, he's just reset his investment with a MUCH better payoff. The cabeling, and inverter will not fail that fast. The inspection won't change for a replacement. There'll be virtually 0 costs.

    I have 600w of grid tied, net & production metered solar on my house. The coolest part? I did it for almost nothing. Bought everything on E-bay. Hardest part was complying with code, which looking back was really just a mere nuisance.

    This isn't rocket science. If you pay someone to do it, they have to charge a ton because they are
    1. Licensed electricions,
    2. It's a business
    3. they require certain bonds and insurances.

    If you do it yourself (can you understand parallel & series circuits and do you know how to count, add, multiply, etc volts, amps & watts? you're qualified!) to your own house, you can get a system for MUCH less than 50K. bonus as your ROI is better, even better is that it makes more extreme lattitudes viable.

    It's not ton's of $, but it does keep the house cool.

    --
    How much is your data worth? Back it up now.
    1. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by Sabriel · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Sadly, in Australia it is illegal to DIY so much as a broken light socket connected to nothing at all, let alone build a grid-tied solar power system.

    2. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by dbIII · · Score: 2, Informative

      Since it's so easy to mix up active and neutral I don't think it is quite so sad. You can still do it all but just get an electrician to check your work. As for the "trade only" suppliers, they like cash as much as anyone else although it's a good idea to not look wildly out of place and know what you are looking for before you go in.
      Also I don't think the electrical safety laws apply to 12V installations - that's how I would wire things up. There is a lot of lighting and appliances designed to run off 12V and not need an inverter, you might just have to hunt around at places that fit out boats etc.

    3. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by Zakabog · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Since it's so easy to mix up active and neutral I don't think it is quite so sad.

      The black wire (positive) goes to the black wire, the white wire (neutral) goes to the white wire, and it's quite obvious that the ground goes to neither. If you have three wire in your house then by the process of elimination you can determine that the red wire (switched positive if it's hooked up right) goes to the black wire.

      I was fully capable of wiring a light fixture around the age of 10, electrical outlets are much more tricky (since it's not obvious that the black wire goes to copper screw, and the white wire goes to the silver screw.) Switches are really easy too, the only reason I can see it being illegal to do any of this in Australia is lobbying by an electricians union.

    4. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by dbIII · · Score: 1

      I know this (even did a short course at TAFE wiring up power points), my father also knew this and still managed to mix them up installing an exhaust fan and got a fairly bad 240V kick from that. It's still a mistake that is very easy to make unless you are doing it every day. It's a safety issue and really has nothing to do with a union - consequences are fire or death. I've got enough kicks from the 240V side of electical equipment to finally realise it's a good idea to get an electrician to check building wiring before it goes live.

    5. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by Fjandr · · Score: 1

      it's quite obvious that the ground goes to neither

      <nitpick>
      Except at the point in the system where the two do actually need to be bonded together. :)
      </nitpick>

    6. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by smoker2 · · Score: 1

      In an AC light switch (on the wall) what comes in to the switch as live goes out as neutral. That isn't obvious.

    7. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by ozzee · · Score: 1
      There is no "positive". There is an "active" and a "neutral".

      Also colours of wires become interesting. Black wire is usually neutral and the red (in AU, white in the US) is active, green is ground (sometimes bare wire in US).

      3 phase is even more interesting... Red, Blue and Yellow are the usual "active" colours in Oz.

      You may have been capable of wiring a light fixture but did you know how load affected the temperature of the wire and how to the length of the wire may require different types of wire?

      It's not very hard to learn this stuff, however if you use words like "positive" when talking about a mains feed, you give yourself away.

    8. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by Zakabog · · Score: 1

      I know this (even did a short course at TAFE wiring up power points), my father also knew this and still managed to mix them up installing an exhaust fan and got a fairly bad 240V kick from that.

      I have to ask, HOW? How did you manage to get the wiring wrong in a way that an electrician wouldn't make the same mistake?

    9. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by DRAGONWEEZEL · · Score: 1

      Yeah, AC is positive ~60 times a second, but for some reason a lot of people use "HOT" and "Positive" in this weird interchangable way that makes NO sense to me, except that I made the same mistake when I first bought my house (I was a young 23 at that time) I even knew the differences between AC / DC (band reference not intended, but acceptable) but just didn't know the "hot" terminology.

      HOT= Chicks I'd like to bang, and black wires.
      Neutral= Switzerland & white wires.
      Ground= What you don't want to hit when flying an R/C plane except in a contorlled soft landing, but the electrical definition of ground is complicated. Sometimes ground is a common point, like on a car. Sometimes ground is actually "The Ground" like dirt. I think there is one other definition, but I can't remember it atm.

      --
      How much is your data worth? Back it up now.
    10. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by Zakabog · · Score: 1

      There is no "positive". There is an "active" and a "neutral".

      Yes, but to avoid mistakes (getting electrocuted) when I worked with an electrician, we only called it hot or live (never heard active before) when it was in fact, hot or live. When the circuit was dead we just called it positive because we knew what that mean to us.

      Also colours of wires become interesting.
      Black wire is usually neutral and the red (in AU, white in the US) is active, green is ground (sometimes bare wire in US).

      The white wire in the US is neutral, black and red are hot, but once you've got that hooked up there isn't much more you can be confused by. The ground wire is easy to pick out as there's usually a green screw, it's usually a much smaller gauge, and if the wire is bare it should be obvious that it doesn't go to either one of the shielded wires. If all else fails there's always instructions.

      3 phase is even more interesting... Red, Blue and Yellow are the usual "active" colours in Oz.

      It's so rare to ever see 3 phase service in a home in the US that it's not even worth mentioning. Perhaps it's more common in Australia to see it in a residential building, but you could work 30 years in the US as an electrician and never see residential 3 phase service.

      You may have been capable of wiring a light fixture but did you know how load affected the temperature of the wire and how to the length of the wire may require different types of wire?

      No, but I never needed to know that when installing a light fixture because any light fixture you buy in the store comes with all the wiring ready to hook up to the box. I'm not talking about running the wires from the switch to the box here, just removing an old fixture and installing a new one.

      Anyway, think about it this way, you can cause a lot more damage improperly installing the brakes on your own car, but you don't need a license to legally change your own brakes (or maybe in Australia you do, in which case you've ruined my Crocodile Dundee "that's not a knife!" vision of Australia.) If you really can't figure out installing a light fixture with all of the resources available out there then maybe you should call an electrician, but you shouldn't be legally required to do so.

    11. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by fataugie · · Score: 1

      Uh, wait a minute.

      Residential:
      In US, black is hot, green is ground and white is neutral assuming single phase.
      If there is a second hot wire (12/3 for example), then that one is usually red.

      Commercial:
      Three-Phase I haven't dealt with it in 15+ years...so anything I think I know is probably wrong.

      There are online calculators for wire size vs distance, etc. Google is your friend on that one.

      --

      WTF? Over?

    12. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Other than cost, is there any reason not to just use a really heavy gauge wire for everything and call it good?

    13. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by manicmike66 · · Score: 1

      In Australia, the colours are all different: No red, white or black wires. It's therefore quite easy for the uninformed to kill themselves.

    14. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by dbIII · · Score: 1

      I have to ask, HOW? How did you manage to get the wiring wrong

      Probably the same way you failed at reading comprehension and thought that I had done it - a stupid mistake by not taking it seriously enough I can only assume. A lot of people made that sort of mistake in the past and ended up dead or injured. The reaction of the government was to insist that only licenced electricians can muck about with mains power. Wiring a power point or a switch isn't hard but the consequences of failure are nasty - electricians have seen or felt the consequences first hand so theoretically take things a lot more seriously. That's why I see some merit in the law that an electician has to at least check it out before it has mains power.
      This is all fairly irrelevant since with solar power input you would want to run low voltage DC devices as much as possible instead of throwing a lot of that power away with an inverter - so handle the DC yourself and let an electrician deal with the small amount of work on whatever you have stepped up to full mains voltage.

    15. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by ozzee · · Score: 1

      Other than cost, is there any reason not to just use a really heavy gauge wire for everything and call it good?

      No real reason except perhaps ease of wiring. (i.e. easier to bend and twist a smaller wire.)

    16. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    17. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      **this just in, do it yourself is cheaper than paying someone to do it.**

      thanks for the tip, but not all of us can become certified electricians with our ample amount of free-time on the weekends.

    18. Re:SOLAR PANELS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO REPLACE!! by DRAGONWEEZEL · · Score: 1

      it's low voltage DC on the panel side. No need to be a qualified anything.

      here's the steps for replacing panels:

      Disconnect or throw DC breaker.
      Undo old panels from bracket.
      Remove the grounding wire from panel.
      Remove DC wires from panel.

      Installing new panels is reverse of removal.

      Adding panels:

      Disconnect DC breaker.
      Mount the new brackets to your roof.
      Thread cables through your pre-existing conduit.
      connect cables to the combiner box side.
      Wire panels in to the desired voltage of your inverter. (IE for a 48v inverter wire 2 24v panels in series)
      mount panels to brackets.

      This is pretty reasonable for the DIY /. crowd.

      --
      How much is your data worth? Back it up now.
  55. IIR and government rebates by brindafella · · Score: 1

    Firstly, like Gospodin (547743), I looked at the headline story and smelled a rat in the methodology. Internal Rate of Return (IIR) (aka "Time Value of Money") works to 'normalise' the figures to "today-dollars". Not only is there an efficiency reduction, the value of $3,000 now is reduced by the rate of inflation over the period, which on face value was not counted by the article's author with the effect that the pay-back period is lengthened. I'll accept the figures by Gospodin (547743).

    Secondly, I'm in Australia, where the Federal Government has just abruptly cancelled two rebate schemes and thereby markedly increased the cost of solar systems to consumers. There is some politics involved, but the consumer who was having a system installed in the last few weeks suddenly has a very significant real cost increase on the systems, and prospective customers are cancelling in great numbers. Great outcome!

    --
    Looking at space, radio, science and computing from a 'down-under' amateur enthusiast perspective.
  56. If he had the money by stabiesoft · · Score: 1

    It may have been a great investment. Lets see, he could put in a MM account and be getting 1% or he could have had it in the market and lost 30%. Timing is everything (Or he may have had it with Bernie and lost 100%)

  57. Solar is Too Easy by cc_pirate · · Score: 1

    Real men and women (and little fuzzy creatures from Alpha Centauri) use household fuel cells! :)

    --

    "There are laws that enslave men, and laws that set them free. " - Sean Connery as King Arthur

  58. Re:If anyone is interested in a solar water heater by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I had a solar water heater on my previous house. It was a huge waste of money. It added to my home insurance bill. It cost extra when I had the roof replaced. I had to have it serviced every few years (replace the anti-freeze). When I sold the house, I had it serviced and the bill was $250.

  59. waste of electricity, that's for sure by roesti · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I knew I couldn't have been the only person here who thought that way.

    From the original article about the installation itself, they use 17,400kWh per annum - about 47.7kWh per day. This is a staggering amount, even considering that they do work from home as well and have two teenage daughters living at home. By their own figures, their $38,000 solar installation only covers half that electricity (although about three quarters of the bill). As I'm sure NuShrike wondered, what the hell are they spending that electricity on? Do they run the air conditioner all the time? If so, wouldn't they be better off buying ceiling and wall insulation and some decent curtains?

    My housemate has been considering a photovoltaic installation at home. (Since the Australian federal government suddenly pulled the rug out from underneath the $8000 rebate, I don't know whether he's still considering it.) By my measurements, he'll waste at least half of the electricity they generate on standby power for the computers and such, and nearly as much again on halogen downlights for the main living area. He's just not in the mindset that having PV power means being more responsible for electricity use. In other words, I suspect he believes that it will give him more electricity to spend as he pleases (invoking Jevons' Paradox, as NuShrike suggested), whereas the sibling post by hoojus shows how easy it is to develop the mindset of having less and using it more efficiently.

    Of course, if you can save that amount of electricity, but without solar panels and for a fraction of the cost, it hardly seems worth bothering. You can still have both, though, even if it means a few new habits towards cleaning up after yourself.

    Oh, and NuShrike, the idea of scaling renewable energy, rainwater catchment and the like for a community is a fantastic idea and one I have been hoping would see a bit more support. Let me know if you've got any ideas.

  60. $3,000/yr in electricity? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    $3000/yr in electricity? That seems excessive to me. I live in the SE USA in a 3500 sq ft home and my annual electricity for the last 12 months was ... $955. That's with 2 servers with external arrays and monitors running 24/7 in addition to a few big screen TVs, and all the other household appliances running. BTW, those servers run 6 VMs each.

    Only nuclear power makes sense in my region. Not enough wind or sunshine to support either of those methods. Good thing power is cheap here. Rock on COAL!

    I guess Loyd lives in Cali? Only there is spending your money and government money considered a "savings." Going with solar water heating would probably make more sense.

  61. Another way to look at it.. where the $ goes by peas_n_carrots · · Score: 1

    Here's another way to view this. Take the simple fact that we "need" electricity and will pay for it one way or another. We can pay for generation by fossil fuels, or we can pay for it in investments in renewable energy. It's not so much how long it'll take to pay back, it's that since the money will be spent on electricity anyway, might as well put it towards solar or wind based electrical generation. At some point in time the financials break even, so you've spent money more wisely. You're also not entirely at the mercy of the utilities (read: rolling blackouts).

    There's alot of factors at play here. For example, it takes energy to make solar panels. From what I've read though, the total energy output of modern solar cells far exceeds the energy needed to manufacture them. [Sorry don't have a link, but Google reveals all]

    1. Re:Another way to look at it.. where the $ goes by aXis100 · · Score: 1

      Simple economics - the cost of generation is factored into the sale price. If the panels eventually pay for themselves, then not only have you paid for the sales profit, but also the manufacture costs, electrical or otherwise. The factory might get a better price than electricity than regular consumers, but it's within the ballpark.

  62. Re:Price of certainty in the face of zombies by itsybitsy · · Score: 1

    "To all the people mocking his investment, your missing one thing. You do not know what the price of energy is going to do in the next few years [when zombies rule the Earth]. The guy in the article however is guaranteed a minimum amount of power each year from his solar panels at a rate he knows. (His initial investment / Life time of the panels)." This is very important when the zombie hordes attempt to take over your home... his solar powered electric fence is all that keeps them away from his family, except for his daughter who had the misfortune of going to college where the zombie infestation started in the first place. Anyhow, it is highly suggested that you reinvest the money saved back into an electric fence and expanding the entire solar panel installation along with a full and essential hydroponic system to keep fed during the long decades that it will take for a typical zombie infestation to work itself out. You'll need to expand the battery capacity at least ten to fifty times to make it though the nightmarish doldrums of winter months [fortunately the zombies move much slower then] and a ten fold expansion of the solar panels will increase the power generation then to the minimum needed to power the electric fences. In the summer the extra energy can be used to power a laser system to cut off zombie heads with corpse cleanup during the winter months. In The End Solar Panels can be a life saver.

  63. Mod parent down. by Jartan · · Score: 1

    That's probably not the most representative time frame. If you had invested just before the wall street crash, your investment would still have underperformed compared to a cash investment after all this time.

    Because investing BEFORE a stock market crash is a "representative time frame" too. The fact remains that over a long term investing in the stock market will give you 5% or more if you actually let it sit as a long term investment. On top of that it's capital gains so it's not taxed as highly as normal income.

    1. Re:Mod parent down. by jonbryce · · Score: 1

      The fact is that it might, but it isn't always guaranteed to, even over the very long term.

      If you had invested in some of the stock markets in Europe around that time, you would have lost everything.

  64. Three Years Top by Nom+du+Keyboard · · Score: 1

    If Cap-and-Trade is passed, Lloyd should expect it to by paid off in 3 years tops - and the rest of us are royally screwed.

    --
    "It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
  65. Maths doesn't work out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This guy has fiddled with the numbers, and I would go so far as to say he did it deliberatly to make it look good. He makes no attempt at all to acutally work out how much he saved. He just takes last years power bill and this years power bill and says look I saved $3,000, that only true if he used the same amount of power both years. I doupt he did, I bet everyone in the family was conserving power, even subconsciously.

    According to his own graphs he generated 8686 kilowatt hours of power, which he claims saved him $3,000. This comes out to 34.5 cents per kilowatt hour. So we are meant to believe that all his power was at top tier usage? If so he has the most expensive power company in the western world - 35cents US per kilowatt hour! God lord, I thought it was bad when my power went up 16% this year from 9c to 10.5c per kilowatt hour.

    Sure solar might have saved him $3,000 but he could probably save $2,000 just by changing his power company or tariffs.

    1. Re:Maths doesn't work out by m.dillon · · Score: 1

      If the author uses a lot of power then it could very well all be top-tier usage. That's pretty much how my solar installation works. I use a lot of power, and my solar takes it right off the top-tier. Someone using less power would not have enough KwH-use in their top tier and their solar would dip into a lower tier.

      Even saying that, doing a Solar installation is a lot more about being more green then it is about actually saving money. The greenhouse cost of building a solar panel has about a 1-2 year payback in terms of energy produced, which is a different measure then the payback on dollars spent. With a 25 year life-span on the panels a Solar installation ultimately has just 1/10 the impact verses not having it.

      -Matt

  66. Solar water heating... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My stepdad set up Solar to heat the water in our house many years ago, and he's since recently improved it with newer and more panels and I still take cold showers every day.

  67. Multiple pages by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm tired of this shit. The print version of sites was reliable for a long time. I wonder how many morons actually printed shit out though it was useful if you didn't want to keep clicking every two minutes.
    The content just isn't good enough to for me to pay 2 cents for or spend 3 seconds clicking on a next link every 3 minutes fuck you, I'm not visiting that link at all.

  68. Photovoltaics are expensive and inefficient by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    Instead of attempting to convert sunlight to electricity. Simply use the heat.

    Install a Heat Store or Heat Bank and use Solar thermal panels as a heat source for the store. You can also then add wood, gas, electric, whatever as heat sources to supplement the solar thermal panels.

    For cooling. Use evaporative cooling, its 3-4 times more efficient than air conditioning.

    The ROI and EROEI for solar thermal is far higher than for photovoltaics. Typically 5-7 year payback without subsidies.
     

    --
    Deleted
    1. Re:Photovoltaics are expensive and inefficient by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

      Instead of attempting to convert sunlight to electricity. Simply use the heat.

      In the location he lives in California, I don't expect he needs much heat.

      And as for evaporative cooling, I expect that in CA, water is even more of a resource to be conserved than electricity is.

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    2. Re:Photovoltaics are expensive and inefficient by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

      And as for evaporative cooling, I expect that in CA, water is even more of a resource to be conserved than electricity is.

      Salt water evaporates just as well as fresh, and most of the cities in California are sitting adjacent to the Pacific Ocean.
       

      --
      Deleted
  69. Thankfully, ExtremeTech is closing their doors by default+luser · · Score: 1

    The article is spread annoyingly over multiple pages, like everything at the site, and the print version omits the graphs.
    my tags

    ExtremeTech always has that sucky layout, but I'm proud to mention that they are closing their doors in a week or two. This will mean the end of one of the many sites that spew 20-page articles that could have easily fit on two pages (and I never bother visiting).

    Hopefully, the author of this article will find gainful employment at a site that DOESN'T hate it's users. The fact is, he's the only reason I've bothered reading an ExtremeTech article in years.

    --

    Man is the animal that laughs.
    And occasionally whores for Karma.

  70. Where are you getting 5%?? by atomic777 · · Score: 1

    cause the last I checked, my money deposited in "risk-free" accounts is getting somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5% interest in these days of rampant money printing. A 5%, tax-free return on a solar installation is looking like a mighty fine return right about now.

  71. You might want to try a more realistic measure by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    http://www.shadowstats.com/

    As soon as any of the indicators go up (these are pretty reliable predictors of activity), the FED simply filters the money out of the banks, rates go up for daily business paper and money is more scarce.

    ITYM the FED causes a recession.

     

    --
    Deleted
  72. Timers make all the difference by Anonym1ty · · Score: 1

    Timers make all the difference.

    Last year my home used 622 kWh for the June bill.

    This year June was down to 392 kWh!

    I haven't noticed a thing.

    My computers are on timers... The OS shuts them off before the timer does... then I have to use a timer since the bios doesn't have a wake at time feature... But I set them to power on after power failure.

    I put a lot of things on timers now. I just wonder if I am actually wasting electricity putting a CFLs and particularly LED lights on a timer, suspect on the lower wattage ones the timer and the light may be about the same. But with lighting I just want it on without thinking about it.

    But basically it's a 37% difference in kWh.

    I did this after switching to the 3 tier time-of-use plan and last year's bill was $80.69 and this years was $36.20 for a 45% savings.

    And no I'm not an environmentalist, I'm just so cheap I squeeze a quarter 'til the eagle screams

    House is 7200 cuft (200 M^3) main floor. Full basement, located between Chicago, IL and Milwaukee, WI USA (42.7` north lat)

  73. Re:If anyone is interested in a solar water heater by peas_n_carrots · · Score: 1

    I too have a solar hot water system. Mine uses evacuated tubes which are more efficient at capturing heat than your flat plate collectors (from what I can tell in your photo).

    With the heavy amount of sun in TX, the solar thermal collector provides 100% of our hot water for about 8 months of the year (Apr - Nov). The coldest 4 months average about 50% of our hot water supply. In the summer the tank easily exceeds 170 deg F. As comparison, scalding temp is about 120F and most hot water heaters are set to 120-130F for energy conservation purposes. Don't worry, a thermostatic valve mixes in cold water at the tank's exit point so that the superheated water doesn't reach the faucet. Based on my rough calculations, the system will pay for itself in 6-7 years which is pretty good. After that it's money in my pocket!

    Solar thermal has its optimal and sub-optimal locations, as with any resource. Northern states would not benefit as much due to the colder climates. I am always surprised in the winter when the system can get the water up to 90F when it's 35F outside (on a sunny winter day). But with lower temps and more overcast days in some northern climates, solar thermal would take alot longer to pay for itself. Now if they can just figure out a way to extract energy from snow...

  74. Re:If anyone is interested in a solar water heater by ericberm · · Score: 1

    Oh yea, my system is extremely efficient, when the sun is out. In the winter, if it's a clear day, the tank will easily get up to the cap of 165. The main issue is our location, about 30 miles east of bodega bay. In the winter there's just not much sun out. Still, even on a cloudy day, the tank will get up to 125-130. The flat collectors in the the picture have the copper tubes inside of them filled with glycol which cycles down to the water heater. I got this system specifically because I liked the look of the panels when compared to the alternatives. It's great to hear other's experiences with solar hot water. I'm expecting this year will be much more efficient than last year since I now know how to dial in the system a bit better.

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  76. wire size by DRAGONWEEZEL · · Score: 1

    Yeah, try bending and routing that bigger wire. It's all fine and dandy, untill you thread it through conduit. Then it's CRAZY hard to put it in the shape you need it, so you either need to have bigger conduit, or smaller wire.

    --
    How much is your data worth? Back it up now.