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PC Era Forecasted To End In 18 Months
dcblogs writes "In a historic shift, shipments of smartphones, tablets and other app-enabled devices will overtake PC shipments in the next 18 months, an event that may signify the end of the PC-centric era, market research firm IDC said. IDC said worldwide shipments this year of app-enabled devices, which include smartphones and media tablets such as the iPad, will reach 284 million. In 2011, makers will ship 377 million of these devices, and in 2012, the number will reach 462 million shipments, exceeding PC shipments. In 2012, there will be 448 million PC shipments. One shipment equals one device. PC sales will continue to climb, but will no longer rule."
This will probably mean the end of Microsoft as well.
Likely the beginning of the Year of Linux on the desktop as well.
If I were God, wouldn't I protect my churches from acts of me?
Even if smartphones and such sell more than their larger counterparts, I still don't see it happening that quickly. There's still a lot to be said of the experience of using a "PC" rather than an "app device", regardless of the equal or disparate capabilities between them.
An example is writing...I'm not going to write on a bluetooh-keyboard-connected iPad for the same reason I wouldn't write on a netbook or a laptop; I need to feel centered, to feel like "OK body and mind, we're sitting down, and we're writing." I don't see being able to duplicate that feeling with an "app" device.
Living With a Nerd
First, the report talks about devices sold, not the installed base, in which PCs will have a very big lead for the foreseeable future. Phones have long sold better than PCs. Also, do you know anyone that just uses smartphones and tablets but never PCs or laptops? Didn't think so.
This space for rent.
While I'm all for new technology, we're also entering an era I like to call developer soup. Maybe I just coined that. In any case, there's no good way to target all the platforms anymore. You might argue HTML5, but really only Chrome is useful for that (right now), and many do not run Chrome. Many in fact, still use IE6/7/8 at corps.
It kind of stinks, because before you could make an app for one platform and hit a lot of targets, but not anymore.. Android, iOS, BBOS, Windows, Linux, Mac, MeeGo, the diversity is difficult, at best, if you want an all encompassing app. Ah well, I guess HTML4 for now, HTML5 in 18 months.
Read all about it in this arbitrarily nonsensical review guaranteed to increase page clicks here!
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Until smartphones and tablets displace the PC in being the platform where most of the work is done, I don't consider the PC Era to be over.
My postings are informational and does not constitute legal advice. Act on it at your risk.
So can we declare 2012 the "Year of the Linux Smartphone"?
There's no -1 for "I don't get it."
That there is more High level people in companies doing mostly nothing (e-mails and such) than regular workforce and having an Ipad/iphone/blackberry does not mean that you have forfeited your pc ownership.
People cant stop complaining about slow pc and want bigger display or worst two or three display (my company) to enhanced their work experience so an IPAD? I dont think so
It could also mean that smartphones will stay as individual devices and computers will shift or stay as shared devices (depending on the family).
I know many families where they have one or two computers for 4 people, but each person has an iPhone or smartphone.
For some families that had one computer per person, come the regular renewal or upgrade time for those machines, they may downsize, getting rid of one machine or both and replacing it with one faster one, since many of the trivial tasks people do on computers can be done with a smartphone or tablet...but really, most financial, graphics, school work still need a real computer. As as fancy as any touch device gets, they will likely never be as fast as a keyboard typing a book report for the average user.
Does this mean we'll write the smartphone apps ON smartphones?
Oh... no it doesn't... guess that means it's not the end of the PC. Oops.
Steve Ballmer was seen pleading plaintively at the merciless slashdot crowd.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
At work I still need a desktop machine for coding. But as an example, currently my dad has an iMac that I bought him a couple years ago. I bought him an iPad 3G for fathers day because he does travel a lot. Talking with him over thanksgiving, he rarely turns on his iMac any more. Only time he does is to update investments or work on his taxes. The rest of the time he uses the iPad with docking station.
I still have my older Mac Mini hooked up to my TV. I have since 2005, but in the last year or so my XBox360 has taken over as it had HD output. I know the newer MacMini's have HDMI, but my HDTV is 10 years old and still uses HD component. When the MacMini kicks the bucket I'm not sure if I'll replace it. My iPad does pretty much all I need at home.
"The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other people's money" - Thatcher.
Tell that to the 10mil+ subscribers of WoW. With the new expansion getting released, WoW players are going nowhere. Tell the pro Starcraft players that as well. The average consumer doesn't use their pc much anyway, and most of that can be handled through their ps3 or phone now, so they might stop using it alot less.
What about college students? So, how are they going to type up their exams now. On a smartphone? I think it would be absolutely horrid to write a thesus using a phone. Ouch.
18-months? Really?
Now, I consider myself an avid pc gamer, and I have no plans to move away from that anytime soon, plus the 6 cores are starting to roll out in larger numbers. 3-D technology is getting implemented more and more into PC's (I believe it is NVidia who is doing a bunch of stuff with it).
The thing is that PC's can do so much more than a smartphone, and PC's are upgradable (not just software, but hardware) and it won't void your warranty (well I guess if you buy a PC from Dell or something it might since I don't know the rules with pre-made machines). The point is that as pc's evolve, you can easily evolve and adapt with the times by upgrading your PC. To do this with a smartphone means that you need to buy a new phone. Not all that smart if you ask me
The world is how you make it
Kind of hard for the year of Linux on the desktop to come around when there are no more desktops
The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
This is such an idiotic statement. There are already far more cell phones sold, smart or not, per year than PCs, and this has been true for nearly a decade. These phones are being replaced with "app-enabled devices" because it's getting nearly impossible to get a plain old phone - they just don't make them anymore. Even the $0 freebie has some sort of smartphone-like functionality. Hell, my old MotoRazr from 2004 had apps! Shiit Java apps, but still...
The day you can sit down at an "app-enabled device" and professionally write software, code a business-class web site, edit video, design a mechanical blueprint, and play WoW, well that might be the end of the PC era. For now, and the next 10 years at least, we just have a lot of fussy gadgets.
-Billco, Fnarg.com
"an event that may signify the end of the PC-centric era"
I think they overlook a few of factors:
1) smart phones are undergoing a upgrade/replacement phase that isn't seen in the pc world. Outside of the gaming community, many people are fine with the core 2 duo they bought 3 years ago, but in the same period of time they would have replaced a smart phone at least once.
2) many people have more than one smart phone - I have a work phone and a home phone, yet I only have one pc
3) many people are smart phone buyers but not pc buyers. For instance, a family may have 1 home computer and 4 phones (one for each parent, one for each kid)
End of the PC-specific era? Better get some more statistics than just shipments.
I was going to post a cynical comment about how PCs and smart devices are different tools for different purposes but then I realized that this really does speak volumes about how far the usability of such portable devices has come since 2000 when the only people with "smart" devices were those with blackberries to check work email.
Funny the shift seemed to start when Apple made them "cool" to wave around as a status symbol.
If you create any content (even large blocks of text, much less cad, drawings, etc.), all the other devices suck terribly.
But if you want to play games, listen to songs, watch videos, read what other people write, I agree.
She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
I'm sick of being politically correct.
Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
Your average PC user doesn't upgrade nearly as much as your average cell phone user. Most people buy a PC and it serves them for 3 to 5 years. Those same people upgrade their phones as soon as their contract is up. This isn't really a good comparison. More likely, it's just another opportunity for "journalists" to tout the end of something. They really seem to love doing that whenever a new toy comes out. I've lost count of how many times I've been told that PC gaming era is at an end.
Predicted to last longer than 18 Month
In related news, landfills around the world are expected to grow exponentially, as individuals and businesses discard old, still-working computers.
Breaking Story! Slashdot posts a story about the death of PCs! For the millionth time...
More broadly: anything creative is better done on a computer than a tablet.
A tablet (etc.) is for consumption of content. They rock for accessibility and convenience: just what you need when you are passively consuming content, such as reading or watching. Even gaming counts, as you are not putting anything in to the device: just getting entertainment out of it.
But if you are trying to create something (prose, music, code, graphics, databases, and so on and so on), then a full-fledged computer is vastly superior.
Maybe this will change someday, as the interfaces for devices improve and the apps develop. But in the short-term, I defy someone to create billboard-quality graphics, commercial-grade websites, or a publication-level novel on a tablet. I suppose it can be done, but it would be a heck of a lot easier with a full computer.
In other news...Linux will be huge on the desktop within the next 18 months.
1.5 yrs until people will not be using Blender, Flash Pro, Visual Studio, or want to engage in some high-end 3D FPSers? Sorry, no. Where am I suppose to edit my AVCHD video files? What about the 720p files I shoot on my phone? Store my digitized photo albums, or keep a backup of all the individual songs I bought in case my iPod battery dies?
One factor they probably didn't count: cost. If smart devices are a threat to any market, it is the netbook. Sorry, the iPad doesn't even come close to touching a venerable Toshiba M400 tablet PC, and an ancient M200 is probably just as good. However, an iPad might compete with my original EEE PC 4G - which I have to nLite XP to get it to fit on (+eeectl = x2 screen brightness for operation in full daylight = awesome).
Don't get me wrong. I just got an android phone, and its nice - but it is no where near a PC replacement. Heck, a 4" screen for reading emails is iffy, and the web experience is less then great. However, it has a lot of convenience - especially setting it up as a hotspot to use with my laptop when no free wi-fi is around.
My apologies for being a bit random in my comments... I'm trying to learn to be brief.
Two years ago they said no one would use a PC, because netbook sales were through the roof. PCs were entirely dead. But people buy netbooks to supplement their PCs. Same with smartphones and tablets.
http://blindscribblings.com - Tasty pop-culture in conceptual fashion.
I for one welcome our new Chumby overlords.
http://www.chumby.com/
http://blindscribblings.com - Tasty pop-culture in conceptual fashion.
Considering buying a new HDTV right now. Many are 'Internet Ready" which means it runs "apps". For a smartphone I suppose "apps" make sense but when I can just a good monitor and put a small Eee pc behind it with hdmi, gigabit ethernet, basically the whole Internet and any "app" I want, those Internet Ready devices fall flat. Why would I limit myself to today's hyped snapshot of the Internet experience? I'll keep them in mind for my fridge though.
I'm not sure that 1PC = 1Phone.
I think there are more computers in use than portable devices (phones, tablets, pda's, etc.) The difference is, they become dated and/or break much faster and need to be replaced more frequently.
There hasn't been that since, well, ever. Unix vs VMS in the 70's and 80's, Mac vs PC vs Sparc (aaah. The fun of endianness...)...
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You might be thinking too 'inside the box' - for instance, PhoneGap handles pretty much every smartphone OS out there, plus Mac and PC. SO HTML 5 + CSS + JavaScript + (insert JS datahandling concept of choice) has become a VERY viable way of handling a write once then compile for platfom(s) of choice. It's not a solution for every problem, of course - I somehow doubt writing RageHD in HTML 5 is going to be a choice anytime soon. But for 75% of apps out there, it's a good, solid solution. And PhoneGap is by no means the only one out there providing such a solution.
Davis Ray Sickmon, Jr - looking for something to read? Check out my three free novels at MidnightRyder.org
Wasn't the PC supposed to die like 15 years ago?
While they are computing devices I don't see why the comparison is being made. None of those devices are really true PC replacements in most senses of the word. Those are devices you use to get some work, or play, done when you don't have the luxury of a full-speed, full-size machine. In this sense they may as well include touch screen MP3 players and eReaders too.
What in the hell does "app-enabled device" mean anyway? Sounds like somebody was just born yesterday.
You can have my pencil and paper when you pry them from my cold dead hands.
Doesn't surprise me that there will be more smartphones. After all, phones are heading the way of all phones being smart phones and we are also heading the way of everyone having a personal phone. Wonderful, however that doesn't mean computers are going away. Thus far I've seen no indication that these devices are going to replace computers for work. Phones particularly but the iPad as well are devices well designed for consumption, not production. That's fine for play, not for work. I'm not just talking development, I mean simple things like say e-mail or a spread sheet. I've seen people do e-mail on an iPad, works fine but is much MUCH slower than on a computer.
I'm sure they'll be plenty of these other devices, but that doesn't mean computers are going anywhere.
That's because PCs last longer than smartphones, tablets and the like, and people own more of those devices than PCs. The people I know keep PCs for 5-6 years, yet they're replacing their smartphone every 18 months when their carrier offers an upgrade and may replace it more often if it gets broken. And if they have a tablet it's in addition to their smartphone, not in place of it. And then there's their company-issued phone, which is usually in addition to their personal one. Work PCs follow a similar 5-year replacement cycle, but company-issued cel phones tend to follow the 18-month replacement cycle of the carrier's upgrade offers (assuming they aren't broken and require replacement sooner). And tablets will undoubtedly be in addition to cel phones, or used on the job by people who wouldn't normally be issued a cel phone or have their own work PC (think inventory clerk or delivery driver, they may get a tablet in place of the dedicated hand-held terminal device they use now).
So yeah, given the above, I can see how one PC can equal 2-4 mobile devices. But no mobile device will be able to replace the always-on tower system with the 125W quad-core CPU, 2-terabyte RAID array, 26" or larger high-definition flat-screen monitor and full-sized ergonomic keyboard and mouse. I'll use the smartphone or tablet in situations I can't or don't want to mess with the desktop, but I can't see them ever making the desktop unnecessary.
The headline seems a bit melodramatic...
Why? Because I know several tablet owners and smartphone owners, and not a single one of them would "exchange" their PC with these new gadgets. The mobile devices are more like supplementing their PC's, making private streaming and multimedia editing (among many other things) all the more relevant on a true PC.
I really can't see this as the end of the PC era in any capacity. All these new devices do is make people more used to having the power of computing accessible at all time. If anything PC usage will increase because users want more power to fill data and content onto their mobile devices.
Example: When my dad god a smartphone with 24/7 access to picasa, youtube and facebook, he also started using his PC for photo and video editing.
Another example: When my girlfriend got an iPad she started cataloging our personal photo and video collection and adding quite advanced metadata to the content.
A third example: When I got a tablet I started structuring much of our personal information in real word documents, scanned PDF files and spreadsheets so it was all easier to take with me on-the-go. And obviously the scanning and document processing capabilities of the PC is lightyears ahead of any mobile device.
So it's really quite simple: More power in more devices means more needs for the true powerhouse of the bunch: the PC!
- Jesper
My security clearance is so high I have to kill myself if I remember I have it...
I thought the end of everything was in 2 years time (21-Dec-2012)
Think about it. Everyone wants easy access and control over their own info. What easier way to achieve this than a centralized home server?
Want all of your music & movies & data in the "cloud"? Why not just have your own stable cloud at home that can sync & stream your data to all of your fragmented year-long-lifespan (disposable) mobile devices?
If only someone made a cheap and reliable OS that could work as both a desktop and/or a server... Too bad MS has artificial remote connection limits in their OS, and Apple OS can't be used except on their pricey hardware.
If only the free and open source Linux OS I use for desktop computing could be also be used as server... ::sigh:: I guess my dreams of owning my own cloud and r-synching encrypted backups between family and friends will never be a reality.
PC's won't die. Terminology might change, but the PC will be around for a very long time.
here's an example: PDA's "died" about 5 years ago. Smartphones were the future. and today we have iphones and android phones. the OS is different, and the hardware is a generation removed, the the key difference is that PDA's didn't have a cell phone transmitter/receiver.
I was making skype calls over wifi on my iPAQ ~8 years ago. but, hey, PDA's are dead, right?
Supposing this is true, how is it significant? Development and research will still be done on PC, workstation, cluster, or supercomputer, etc. None of which interface with a 4" screen and crap keyboard. And somehow I find it incredibly unimportant that someone who uses such methods has a smartphone for MS Outlook. Something tells me they collaborate with peers in a more... effective manner.
Maybe the only way this is important is if you're into the stock market and you time it right. Go short some Dell stock or something. That is, of course, if you don't think Dell is agile enough to join the new 'era'.
I do not respond to cowards. Especially anonymous ones.
What's a iPhone? A tiny PC, that's what. And a PC is a giant iPhone. The story here is that lots of people want to carry a small smart screen around with them, like we didn't know that. It's a good place for little apps, messaging, and small emails -- and making phone calls.
But sometimes you want a 20 inch screen - or two of them. How much coding is done on the iPhone? How much graphics editing? Where would you want to write your thesis or read Wikipedia? Reading War and Peace on my smartphone is a real chore, but it fits nicely on the Kindle.
The story is that all the computer ecological niches are being filled: desktop, laptop, small laptop (iPad), and hand-held. Not to mention "real" computers in datacenters. An investor wants to know who's going to make the big profits, but I want one of each, please.
Let 1,000 flowers bloom, said Mr. Mao.
Fiat Lux.
What these "forecasters" don't seem to understand is that the PC market moves much more slowly. For all practical intents, I can use an upgraded desktop that I purchased in 2005 and have a decent computer that can run most needed applications. Sure, I might not be able to run Super Fancy Game 2011 on it, but for typical computer tasks like e-mail, word processing, browsing the internet, YouTube, etc. it works just fine. But lets consider the smartphone market in 2005. There were no widely used captive touch screens, the iPhone wouldn't be released for another 2 years, and the first Android phone wouldn't be released for another 3 years. A person using a HTC Dream wouldn't be able to run the same basic programs that someone with, say, a Droid 2 could. Yet that is only a 2 year gap in hardware! People are buying more smartphones, tablets, etc. because they don't have a practical life longer than a year or two. You can't get software to run on them, annoying bugs in the OS won't be fixed, etc. On the other hand, if you spend a bit of money and upgrade a mid-range system from 2005, you can run just about any normal program on it.
Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
It's true. More bags of M&Ms will ship in the next 18 months than all mobile devices combined. This certainly means the end of mobile computing!
Seriously. I am not sure if these devices are all "replacing" PCs. Sure it may dent PC usage, but it's not exactly a cataclysm. I have 2 mobile devices and three PCs, and will likely buy another PC next year.
Playing Halo on a 4 inch screen!
The ancient Mayans predicted this as well as Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce and that Uri spoon bendy guy. This is (for sure) the end of times!
I still drive a car to work, to just about everywhere. While I may hop on the bike often enough, in actual use, I drive a lot more than I could ever ride. Same with my phone. And frankly, there have always been more phopnes than PCs. Only now, you can look for porn on one. Sort of. It's hard to exercise the hand option when squinting at a 3-inch view screen.
All that works just fine except for the cloud part. If you look in most ISP's contracts they don't allow you to run servers without buying a "business class" service.
Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
Show me Netcraft confirms it or it doesn't happen...
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
This will probably mean the end of Microsoft as well. Likely the beginning of the Year of Linux on the desktop as well.
I realize you are being humorous due to the year of the desktop reference but some readers should consider the following.
With respect to desktop and laptop personal computers mobile devices are complementary products not replacement products. Now tablets, they may be replacement products for netbooks.
At least for regions of the world where people tend to own computers. In other regions the mobile devices are establishing a new market. Today's internet capable smartphone with downloadable apps is tomorrows free-with-your-service low end phone.
I mean, cellphones in general have out sold PCs for years and we're still using PCs. I don't see a single device that does everything well coming any time soon. Sure you can write a nice long email on a Blackberry but have you try editing excel on it? Tablets are great for my parents to watch their movies or slingbox at their business, but terrible for just about anything else.
Well I remember them supposed to have been dying after the birth of Amiga's(which died a screaming fiery death), and after the start of the console revolution(when they went mainstream), and that hasn't happened. And back ~5 years ago when 3 new consoles were launched.
I foresee the PC being around for a long time still. And probably forever, because there will always be some technology that will require an actual workhorse machine of some flavor.
Om, nomnomnom...
another piece of shit story.
first flash is soooooo dead, now the pc is soooooooo dead.
even if the headline is trying to sensationalize slashdot should ignore this crap - its the kind of thing an apple cocksucker would say upon holding an ipad for the first time.
I think this article signifies the end of a person being able to write a sensible article seriously is the world as a whole getting stupider by the minute try thinking and doing some research before writing another lame article.
The PC era is not going anywhere cloud computing is a fad to some point it does have some good uses although its not a solution for everything and APPS = the dumbest consumer money sucking invention I have ever seen.
People seriously need to slow down there consuming and realize they are buying useless crap and being resold it every 3 months in a different packing.
Another way to look at this is that it's the end of the cell phone era. PCs (in the form of small, handheld computers) are taking over where cell phones used to dominate (i.e. making phone calls).
The term "PC" (Personal Computer) has been in use since the early 70's, but the desktop machines today are quite a different beast than those of that period. At one time, the term "PC" was used to indicate a particular architecture (based on the IBM PC vs Macintosh, Sparc, PowerPC, etc), but that really doesn't apply anymore since most machines (including the Mac) are based on this same architecture which bears very little resemblance to the original IBM PC.
Additionally, the lines are very blurred between what a desktop, laptop, tablet & smartphone is. There are products that straddle the lines between each of these general categories.
Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train.
"No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers."
PC's are typically upgradeable where these devices are usually just the package deal
You're right about full-size desktop PCs. But how does one go about upgrading CPU or video on a laptop or a nettop, or upgrading RAM when it's already maxed?
I'm not sure how "all of the PC's competitors' sales put together will finally equal the PC's sales" equates to "Stick a fork in the PC; it's done." It would still have a plurality of market share and be #1.
This is also what killed the dinosaurs.
I don't believe that the majority of these shipped app device units are being used in a true computing capacity. In my day to day exposure, smart phones in particular don't tend to be used for much beyond the capabilities of earlier cell phones.
Especially among the younger crowd, who now seem to think that owning an iPhone 4 is the new minimum requirement for acceptance by their peers, the typical use seems to mostly comprise texting and music playback, with the occasional use of the camera for taking pictures of their friends while drunk. Facebook has definitely made significant inroads, but not too many people are using advanced features of Facebook or using more complex web applications from their smartphones. Some games are present, which are definitely more impressive than what previously existed as games on cell phones, but which mostly fill the same role: idle time wasters when on the go.
In my office environment, everyone has a smart phone. No one uses one as a primary email device, a primary web browsing device or a general office productivity device. The dominant use is scheduling, which requires syncronization with their computer-based scheduling, and email & web browsing while not in the office.
iPads have made some inroads as a computer replacement, with a few people using them as laptop-replacements for meeting notetaking and presentations, but still they're not being used as a primary productivity device.
I see these mobile devices, currently, as a supplement to personal computers which can be omni-present. Because they fit in a pocket and combine functionality with a required gadget (cell phones), more people are web browsing on the go or performing some tasks that previously may have required access to a computer. They still have syncing relationships to computers that are critical to many of their functions, and most functions still work better from a real computer. I doubt that any time soon you will see someone replacing their work PC with a smart phone, and the consumers that might replace a home PC with one probably didn't use that home PC very much.
Compare to radio stations - they are around and kicking even though TV, video and the internet has come.
But their formats have changed: it's either play-by-play sports, news and political talk, or mainstream music. Gone are comedy, drama, and (in many markets) local music; in particular, there's no soap radio anymore. People in my family end up connecting a radio transmitter to the cable box to listen to MSNBC's Morning Joe and USA's Law & Order and NCIS. My grandmother even listens to the U.S. House and Senate floors on C-SPAN as if it were her soap opera.
These stories about the "Imminent demise of technology X in Y months" get really old after a while.
People are still using winXP, IE, audiocassettes, automobiles, and even vacuum tubes. The era of the PC isn't ending anytime soon.
Writers should just take the week off if they have nothing valid or interesting to write about.
blah blah blah
The end of the PC and KDE both predicted on the same day? Seems like some forecasters have too much free time to extrapolate.
In any case, the data is undoubtedly misinterpreted. I own both a desktop PC and an iPod touch. You might think this to be a neutral statistic: I bought a computer and a mobile device, for a score of 1:1.
However, I built my computer from scratch, so no "computer" was shipped to me. Therefore my score is 0:1, resulting in the statistical data that I don't own a computer.
I have a friend who owns a desktop PC, an Android phone, an Android tablet, a netbook and an iPod touch. That's a score of 1:4. Would he give up his desktop? Not a chance.
See, while it may be true that more mobile devices are being sold than PCs, the statisticians fail to realize that most people have a computer or two in addition to their devices. Some people build their own computers. Some people buy them used. Some people keep on using their old machines because they still work fine. Enough with the "device x is going obsolete because of device y" articles.
Right.. I feel like complaining about the fact that smart phones and ipads etc. ARE personal computers
If applications for a computing device need the device manufacturer's approval before they will run, I call the device an "appliance", not a computer. For example, Apple iDevices are appliances. So are video game consoles and Android phones on AT&T. On the other hand, other Android devices are computers, as are Nokia N900 phones and desktop and laptop PCs.
Netcraft confirms the PC is dying!
I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
That’s great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane -
Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn -
world serves its own needs, don’t misserve your own needs. Feed it up a knock,
speed, grunt no, strength no. Ladder structure clatter with fear of height,
down height. Wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for
hire and a combat site. Left her, wasn’t coming in a hurry with the furies
breathing down your neck. Team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered
crop. Look at that low plane! Fine then. Uh oh, overflow, population,
common group, but it’ll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves it's
own needs, listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the
reverent in the right - right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright
light, feeling pretty psyched.
It’s the end of the world as we know it.
XML is a known as a key material required to create SMD: Software of Mass Destruction
From TFA: "It may be seen as a historic shift, but it is one that tells more about the creation of a new market, mobile and tablet computing, than the decline of an older one, the PC. Shipments of personal computers will continue to increase even as they are surpassed by other devices."
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ
But if you are trying to create something (prose, music, code, graphics, databases, and so on and so on), then a full-fledged computer is vastly superior.
Maybe this will change someday, as the interfaces for devices improve and the apps develop.
Except Apple will not allow creation of code on its iDevices in the foreseeable future, as it circumvents the $600 + $99/yr revenue stream for the iPhone developer program. That's a large part of why I bought a Dell netbook instead of an iPad.
Have you looked at toilet paper shipments? Far more than PCs and smartphones combined. I predict that toilet paper will overtake both in the next 18 months, signaling an end of phones and PCs. Wait, it meets a different need? Hmmm, maybe phones do as well...
PCs have a much longer lifespan. I've seen people change phones almost as often as their underwear.
Sorry, but no. Nothing beats the keyboard for input. We write and write and write all day long. Touch screens are no substitute for a keyboard. There is no substitute for a keyboard yet. Even if they made a hat that lets you think words, it would still not replace the keyboard.
Pundits talk like most people are purely consumers of content, not creators.
Of course people working for a publisher are more likely to push the misconception that only people working for a publisher can be authors.
At least in the white-collar world, though, almost everyone is a content creator when they're at work.
The problem will come when only people who are at work can afford tools to create. This has already happened in video game development; Nintendo requires an office and previous published titles on someone else's platform before it'll sell you a devkit for one of its platforms.
By that argument, the iPad is killing the television, not the PC.
I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
As soon as they come out with 3D porn that requires much faster processors and graphics cards to display, sales of PCs will skyrocket again!
I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
In the future everyone will carry a smart phone around with them. When they approach a computer terminal, which will be a stationary mouse, keyboard and monitor, the phone will sync using high bandwidth low-distance wireless protocols. While at the terminal you simply set your phone on the desk/table, or even leave it in your pocket; you might plug it in to the power jack and possibly into an ethernet jack for faster net access (these might be one cable). All of your computing always takes place on your own device, possibly farming out intensive computation to external servers via partially-web/cloud/net-based apps. Storage is local to your phone with a sync service which mirrors to redundant, encrypted storage on a remote service provider silently and in the background, or on demand. Some files may not really existing locally but will be transferred on-demand if they are not in the local disk cache.
Thus, wherever you go you have your own computer and your own data, all of which is secure.
I want my Cowboyneal
This is what they predicted when the Newton came out.
In other news, I predict that sometime in the future everything will be a bit different than it is now.
What in the hell does "app-enabled device" mean anyway?
As I understand the article, it means a computing device that runs applications from multiple developers but for which all applications are cross-developed. This includes, for example, PDAs and Android devices. It also includes appliances that run only applications that have been approved by the appliance platform's gatekeeper, such as a video game console or an iDevice.
IDC Era Forecasted To End In 18 Months...
Far more likely.
Enough with the "End of the PC Era" hype already. Smartphones and PCs are different. They are used for different things. Nobody uses Photoshop or Maya on a cell phone. Nobody is walking down department store aisles with their PCs or laptops looking up prices. Of course there will be more cell phones than PCs. People get rid of phones far more often than laptops or desktops, and phones are on average much cheaper.
This is an anachronistic bullshit meme that needs to be abandoned.
Netcraft I need to know!
"Read"? You must be new here!
I wish my pc was app-enabled!
Instead I'm stuck with just like what? 13 thousand packages in the repository plus self published software... and they are not even actual apps, just full blown applications... I'm off to buy an iPad!
But... the future refused to change.
I see no technological barrier to building this family of devices today. Is anyone building it?
/...
Except that wireless providers are historically terrible at providing software updates. Apple bucked this trend a bit, and some Android phones have gotten one or two updates. Carriers are still the gatekeepers for the vast majority of phones, though. They want to sell new hardware, not provide new software.
Until "smart" phones came along, was there really a need for software updates on phones? I've had a Sony-Ericcson W810i for a few years now, and have never had a software update. Can you explain to me why I might need one?
It seems this comparison would be much more interesting if it were based on dollars and not units. This article makes as much sense as saying "the sale of toothpicks is outpacing chopsticks". BTW, I don't plan on doing any of my software development on my Android phone since my current seven virtual desktops is hardly enough real estate to do my work.
So, when did the Automobile Era end? I'm sure the number of PCs that shipped each year long ago outstripped the number of Automobiles that ship each year. I guess that means that the car-centric era is over.
While that comparison is slightly more absurd than the point of the article, it still gets at something important: smartphones and PCs are different devices with different uses. When the number of PCs shipped this year is less than the number shipped last year, you can start to talk about the end of the PC Era (of course even then you might be wrong).
The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
Oh come on! change that yellowish title.
http://www.quasarcr.com/
Whenever I see the "tablets will replace desktops!" spin, I remember vacuum cleaner ads from before I was born, and how the vacuum cleaner was supposed to replace brooms everywhere, and reduce work too. Funny how almost every home has one vacuum (maybe two or three depending on function), but many homes have more than one broom (standard, whisk, large push broom, etc). The vacuum may leave things cleaner and less dusty, but it requires more work to push it around. Sometimes you just need to brush something up and away.
Lordy - get it right. The PC era isn't ENDING. It's just that other devices will ship more units than PCs. That's 446 million PCs and 468 million phones. That's hardly the end. Let headlines reflect the TRUE story please.
... to PC games!
I've no idea if you're right or not,
I just wanted to make a joke about java kool-aid, which now that I think about it...
Nope, still sounds putrid.
I am so ready for smartphones to be over with. When are we going to get portable wrist computers that display on holoscreens? I don't want the word "phone" in my computing devices anymore. Once some company decides to make a device that just runs on a "data" network, and kills "voice" and "text", phones will finally die, AT&T will finally go out of business and no longer have stranglehold on the market, and I can stop spending $100 on a phone plan every month of my life.
that's the plan...
Tell that to the 10mil+ subscribers of WoW. With the new expansion getting released, WoW players are going nowhere. Tell the pro Starcraft players that as well. The average consumer doesn't use their pc much anyway, and most of that can be handled through their ps3 or phone now, so they might stop using it alot less.
Give it five years, and MMORPGs will be out on smartphones and tablets.
What about college students? So, how are they going to type up their exams now. On a smartphone? I think it would be absolutely horrid to write a thesus using a phone. Ouch.
I expect most college students already spend twice as much time on their phones as they do typing papers.
18-months? Really?
Okay, that's pretty unrealistic. Five years, maybe.
Now, I consider myself an avid pc gamer, and I have no plans to move away from that anytime soon, plus the 6 cores are starting to roll out in larger numbers. 3-D technology is getting implemented more and more into PC's (I believe it is NVidia who is doing a bunch of stuff with it).
The vast majority of the population is not composed of avid PC gamers. And smartphones now have dedicated 3D graphics chips too. They're already vastly more powerful gaming systems than handhelds like the DS, with title availability and input/control the main limiting factors.
The thing is that PC's can do so much more than a smartphone, and PC's are upgradable (not just software, but hardware) and it won't void your warranty (well I guess if you buy a PC from Dell or something it might since I don't know the rules with pre-made machines). The point is that as pc's evolve, you can easily evolve and adapt with the times by upgrading your PC. To do this with a smartphone means that you need to buy a new phone. Not all that smart if you ask me
Smart is not something you have to worry about.
While I don't think for a minute that PCs will disappear, most people don't use their PCs that way. They don't upgrade their PCs, even if their PCs are upgradable. Half of them have laptops that essentially can't be upgraded (except for memory.) They'd rather spend $500 every two years on a the next model smartphone/iPad.
Yes, I know, you're thinking, "What a bunch of idiot n00bs!"
Give it another five years, and kids'll be so used to the touchscreen that using a mouse, keyboard, and display seem weird. Like driving a car from the back seat.
People that know how to use a computer to its full potential will continue to do so. Those that use a computer for e-mail and internet might as well use a smart phone. Of course shipments of phones will outnumber PCs. Phones are much cheaper, more available, less complicated and more disposable than a PC. Service providers *want* every person to have a phone so they get cheaper and cheaper. If Microsoft wanted a PC in every house, they'd give away a computer with every copy of Windows sold.
Having worked in IT for 26+ years, I'm pretty tired of computers. I know I'll always be using a computer as a basic tool, but I (hopefully) won't be working ON them for the rest of my life. Still I'd much rather use a PC for anything that a smart phone offers. I just last year upgraded to a phone that can text. I certainly don't want one to surf the internet and cost me extra for such a service when I can get the exact same content with a better interface and experience for much cheaper on a PC, mobile or otherwise.
The PC era will never end. We're doomed to evolve with them.
One thing thing that makes me sad about this is that app devices with touchscreens etc. are largely about consuming content as opposed to producing it.
Sure, you can produce chirps, squawks, tweets whatever they're called, like a hungry cookaburra chick (I want to be FED!!)
But no-one is going to write the next great scientific paper, the next insightful essay, or the next great American novel one tweet, one google-search,
or one mobile coupon at a time, are they?
Everyone's goal should be to produce more quality stuff/experience/knowledge/wisdom than they consume. Or at least to be occasionally in output mode instead of tribe-following input mode with a channel changer.
These devices aren't going to help.
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
Yeah right ... who in their right mind will give up the old trusty 101 keyboard for a touch* b***s*** device???
Last year, far more computers were sold than cars. Therefore, the automobile era is over, right?
More cups of coffee were sold than houses. Therefore, the housing era is over, right?
"A sold more than B" does not say anything about the importance of B.
This is just an attention-whoring headline, nothing more. Yeah so other devices sell more than PCs... doesn't mean people will stop using PCs. I can't imagine doing everything I need to do on such small screens. For the kind of light reading / heavy video watching that passes for web surfing with most people, it's understandable, but not for some kinds of work.
Oh and for those who say "finally, good riddance to MS" well we just have new overlords on the other devices. Thank goodness Android and Meego offer some alternatives to the Apple app lock-in. It's the same story all over again with Apple replacing MS this time around, except that this time the playing field is somewhat less tilted at the beginning.
I may not be much of a grammarian, but shouldn't the title read "PC Era Forecast To End In 18 Months"? "Forecasted" just looks and sounds ugly to me. It's an irregular verb and thus disobeys some rules.
Cite: Forecast or forecasted? (itknowledgeexchange.techtarget.com)
Cite: English Verb - To Forecast (writingenglish.com)
Apart from that pedantic observation, I concur with those suspicious of the source and methodology. Market researchers are interested in selling reports to those interested only in high margin expanding markets.
Anecdote: My father finally decided to upgrade his computing experience and after much thought and consultation we decided replace his ancient desktop PC with a 15 inch laptop. This combined the speed he wanted with a screen size which meant that he and my mother would not have to squint at the new screen.
BTW, as part of the consultation process, my father asked me "What's the difference between a program on my computer and an app?" Good question.
A decline in PC shipments means that everybody has 2-4 PCs at home so what people buy now, out of boredom, is smartphones. Wait until they realize the game experience on a smartphone is *so* different from that on a PC, then we'll see another surge in PC shimpents, ans so on. I wonder, who paid that reasearch company to come up with those conlusions?
THE PC IS DYING!
This has been a clarion call for all these niche platform markets for DECADES now.
Funny, but the PC still seems quite sprightly! And it's not an "undead" kinda sprightliness. My brains have gone uneaten now for years.
Basically this is a bunch of marketing jackasses trying to create "spaces" to sell into. Basically hawking a bunch of only semi-useful crap that people really don't need if they have a PC. Is some of it nice to have? Sure. But just about all the functionality is STILL better on a PC (save the mobility thing). And the thing is, they're not really hawking the products themselves. They're looking to cash in on all the peripheral "services". Setup, maintenance, upgrades, troubleshooting, etc. Not to mention possible subscription-style fees.
I don't want to game on my phone. I don't want to watch postage-stamp resolution videos on my phone. I don't want to waste time texting, sexting, tweeting, blogging, IM'ing, etc on my phone. I don't want to word-process on my phone. I don't want to edit images on my phone. I don't really wanna listen to music on my phone. I want to make PHONE CALLS. If I have to, I want a semi-to-very useful web browser (WEB, not web video), and if it takes halfway decent pics on occasion, great. But if it don't no big deal. And I want it to have a useful contact list/address book for memorization of contact info (including phone numbers). That and if it can do GPS and mapping, great. It's useful, but if it's not there, I won't cry. I don't need stock apps, magazine apps, fart apps, or any other kind of useless time-money-and-battery-wasting apps.
The PC is here until something truly better can come into all it's niches and outdo it. Until that happens, this is just a lot of flapping gums and hands outstretched, begging for money.
Chas - The one, the only.
THANK GOD!!!
Dear Cmdr Taco: The past tense of 'forecast' is just 'forecast.'
Handheld computers are personal computers as well in the sense they are personal and computers :D.
As the island of our knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
What about longevity, besides just present installed base? Right now most smart phones are being sold with a 2 year contract; I'm willing to bet that most don't make it lng past that. Most computers probably last 3-5 years. For every geek that buys another computer every year, you probably have at least one apple-fan who upgrades his I-phone whenever a new one comes out, whether it's a year old or just a month.
So sales would have to be ~50% higher for smartphones to merely equal computers, over time.
I don't read AC A human right
.. aren't all those devices attached via USB cable to .... wait for it.... a PC!
Peak oil anyone?
http://www.debunkingskeptics.com/
In other words, TP > PC?
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
<TINFOIL HAT>
Current cellphone GPS doesn't need a valid subscription to make 911 calls and help the authorities track your location in case of an accident --US taxes already pay for that feature. Consider that we've had the simpler radio coverage as WiFi on PC's through retail stores like Best Buy and even Staples. Consider that GPS is in almost every digital cellphone sold this decade. Consider how antennae are no longer visible for Centrino Wifi or GPS Cellphones. With security theater plus TPM and DRM spreading, it's only a matter of time before the US and China mandate a "backport" of cellphone GPS to our PC hardware.
This requires
I'm sure it will take years... if it hasn't been implemented in secret
<TINFOIL HAT>
Any given technology can be optimized for maximum performance (a home computer) or for maximum battery life (a portable computer.) It is possible, theoretically, to connect a 24" LCD monitor to your iPhone, but the video resolution will be so bad that you will hate the day Steve Jobs was born. And who would want to sit at home and read news on a tiny screen when he has a whole wall of a screen right in front of him? Why would you want to dig a trench with a screwdriver? Why would you want to turn a tiny screw with a shovel? You want to use a right tool, not the tool that you happen to have.
The home computer will always be faster - or at least until such a time when a portable computer is "fast enough." This can happen, actually, if all the calculations are moved off of your hardware and onto some big cloud in the sky. Then all you have is a terminal, and it doesn't matter how fast it is. But we aren't there yet, and probably won't be there for a good time because the video bandwidth that modern cards push around is quite impressive.
The only viable case of a convergence that I can see today is a family that is not much into computers. That family can use their smartphones during the day, and at home they drop them in some cradles; that connects them to some LCD panels with somewhat better resolution, and to the keyboard/mouse. Then they can type emails, edit some photos, and browse the Web. Pacman, maybe, or a snake. Not much else. But for them it may be enough.
If someone is seriously replacing a desktop or laptop PC with a smartphone, then it becomes their PC. The reality is, people will always buy more smartphones than PC's because 1) you don't accidently drop your desktop in a puddle and have to replace it, 2) Many families share a PC or two but each family member has a phone, and 3) the cost of the smartphone (subsidized, true) is less than a PC.
Sure, I would expect smartphone, tablets, and the ubiquitous "Other app enabled devices" to outsell PC's. The headline makes it sound as if as soon as smartphones outsell PC's by one unit, noone will ever buy a PC again, which is utterly thoughtless.
I for one have three bikes at home and only two cars, does that mean that the era of the car is over at my house?
Now that you mention it: I have two bathrooms but only one refrigerator.
My monthly internet and phone costs are amazingly similar, actually. Wtihin $10. $70 for cell phone, $70 for home phone/internet
I'd be more willing to buy unsubsidized phones if the phone companies were willing to give me unsubsidized connection plans.
One thing to remember is that just because the low end of one market overlaps the high end of another, doesn't mean that you're going to get all that many people who buy cheap for one and expensive for the other.
Not many are going to buy a $30k Motorcycle and a $16k econobox car.
Of course, my newest phone was nearly $200(subsidized), my last computer was ~$1000, my last laptop $700.
I don't go with cheap computer equipment; but my computers generally last 6 years(3 mainline, 3 as a server/backup/other). I'm seriously considering a tablet or netbook for my next portable computer; the screen for my phone just isn't big enough for everything.
I don't read AC A human right
This isn't about PCs disappearing. This is about the bulk of personal "computing" moving onto devices other than PCs*. And even if it's overstated in the article, it's essentially sound as a trend. For people who aren't authoring (and even some who are), PCs are more or less overkill.
None of this means PCs won't be produced or used. They'll just likely become a minority in a larger sea of devices. Or, as his Steveness says, PCs will be like trucks. That's the end of the PC-centric Era, and it's not a particularly controversial idea.
* Where PC means the desktop/workstation form factor that terms has come to signify. Yes, I know, technically it means "personal computer" and you could grandfather anything with a CPU into that; doesn't change the fact the term PC has come to mean something more specific and it's this usage the article is running with.
Tweet, tweet.
In offices: PC's are often the most suitable option, though they don't need to be so big. (See MacMini.)
With gaming: http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1900220&cid=34482708
I agree with people that PCs aren't going to disappear in 18 months (and you can pry my keyboard from my cold, dead hands), but from a business perspective the PC era does seem to be over. After all, as another person pointed out, business isn't just about raw numbers, it's also about growth. At this point, it does seem like the PC market is relatively saturated, and I doubt many new competitors want to come in and try and push HP and Dell out. Thus, form a growth perspective, yeah, the current market for firms to enter is the smartphone and tablet market, so in that sense the PC era is (temporarily) over.
So, you are saying a whole multitude of devices combined can outsell a singe device. So what?
It's not what you know. It's not who you know. It's what you know about who you know.
We have bigger problems. You can now trade AMEX rewards points for virtual crap in FarmVille and other "social" games. I know that all the rewards are fundamentally just coupons, but this is like coupon porn. These games don't push the graphics envelope, so you can be comfortable playing them on your tablet or similar device. They must be in cahoots.
18 months, huh? Right in time for the end of the world...
It largely depends on yoru definition of a PC. I'm too lazy to look it up, nor is it an original idea (many of us thought this *well* before it was wrote) but ESR has a great article about the future of computing and how it is converging on a single small device.
So, we are going away from the PC to the Tablet - OK, what makes it a tablet vs a PC? The interface? There is no reason whatsoever that I can not get a PC with a touchscreen and get that interface with all the versatility of the PC. The form factor? Well I can't certainly get that PC performance and nice touch screen in a tablet yet but heck, we are close to it.
Lets take the Apple MacBook Air - and easy target as it is currently a widely known set standard. So where does that fit in? Apple wants us to think it isn't a PC, isn't a Tablet, but something in between - yet it *is* a PC replacement we are looking at corporate wide. There isn't anything really lacking there either (well, other than application availability for Mac OS, though bootcamp and a purchase of Windows Professional would fix - but that is software and mostly irrelevant to what we are discussing). In what we call the 'PC" world (by that we mean windows based) you can for the same price as it and get a CPU two generations later, twice the ram and slightly faster, a built in DVD-writer, and a few other hardware upgrades for the same price, weight, and a one inch thick instead of .8 inches thick form factor (we just purchased a Sony VAIO at work equipped as such). So it isn't Apple has any truly special hardware there either - their advertising campaign is quite correct about where that device fits in. Give us a good port replicator (ours has yet to arrive so I can't say how it will work) and the only reason to do otherwise is cost (~1600 for the laptop plus the port replicator and whatever monitor you choose is four or more times the cost of a desktop similarly equipped, but then it doesn't weigh a few pounds and fit in a folder either). Truly that "PC's" form factor is close enough to the tablets that if it had as convenient and OS as they do it would supplant them.
Add in that phones are quickly looking at multiple core 1.5+ ghz processors and multiple ports/outputs/inputs and the line becomes really blurred hardware wise. Indeed, we are already seeing phones that can *capture* as decent quality as their optics allow 1080p video and play any 1080p video stream at full quality as well as a dedicated Blu-Ray player - those lines are blurring. With some of them add a port replicator and hardware wise you are going to be hard pressed to find a difference. Further given time and it being primarily a software issue the following statement comes to mind - once a problem is totally software anything is fixable, it just is a matter of time. So yes, these firms are correct. However one has to note they are wanting money for their advice and, while correct from a strict standpoint the hardware convergence has some time to go and the software had a great deal left. It isn't remotely time to have them the same or invest as such - but long term that is where we are very much moving.
------- Sorry about the spelling, I suffer from two problems. Dyslexia makes it difficult to spell well, lazy makes it
Go ahead and say what you like, but I don't own a smart phone. I own a PC. I can do a lot of work at a PC. I can't see anyone doing a spreadsheet on a smartphone. I don't see anyone writing software on a smartphone. I see people creating software for a smartphone on a PC. I don't see any video editing on a smart phone. I don't see people chucking a PC after 18 months. I see people chucking smartphones all the time after just 18 months. I can't put a PC in my pocket. I can't easily use the PC in the car while I'm driving. I've seen lots of people cut other people off in traffic while talking on the smartphone. I've seen lots of people running red lights, not going till past the New York Minute(tm) at a new green light (and give a sour look in the rear view mirror and speed after being coached with a horn from behind). You can't do these things with a PC. I agree that smart phones are likely going to ship more than PC's, but I don't see smart phones being more useful in more ways than a PC.
The venerable typewriter keyboard, used for almost 100 years, will all but disappear thanks to Apple's iPad. This journalist thinks it's just keen.
The PC era ended in January of 2007 when Apple introduced the iPhone. When we look back 20 years from now, we won't mark the point at which mobile smartphones and mobile tablets outsold PC's as the changing of the guard, we'll mark the original iPhone because it was the first mobile with a PC-class operating system, applications, and Web browser.
The HTML4/Flash era of the Web also ended in January of 2007, as well as the WML/WAP era, and the HTML5/MPEG-4 era of the Web began. That is also when the Web changed from being a PC/IT platform to being a consumer platform. Again, we won't look back 20 years from now to the point where there was more HTML5 on the Web than HTML4, or the point where there was more MPEG-4 on the Web than Flash, or even the point in 2010 when all the browsers turned on their HTML5 parsers by default. We'll look back to the original iPhone because it was the first HTML5/MPEG-4 -only system that Web developers had to support, and the first true consumer Web browser.
You intended your post as a joke, but when I first read it, I didn't think "joke" but instead "ADA requirement". Governments have been outlawing round doorknobs in favor of levers in an effort to make buildings more accessible to people with disabilities. To what extent are these handheld devices as compatible with assistive devices as PCs?
a 4 core CPU for compiling and creating movies and photo editing (all at the same time if I want to)
The pundits would assume that "compiling and creating movies" are something that only employees and hardcore enthusiasts do. Photo editing can work on a handheld device, especially at the 10 Mpx or so of entry-level compact digital cameras; any bigger than that and you're either an employee or a hardcore enthusiast. So I guess the pundits would conclude that only employees and hardcore enthusiasts need desktop PCs.
After all, phones are heading the way of all phones being smart phones
Heading slowly, at least in the United States of America where dumbphone service for occasional use can cost as little as $65 per year (Virgin Mobile USA) but data plans for smartphones are far more expensive.
Thus far I've seen no indication that these devices are going to replace computers for work.
Unless you get to a situation where offices will have computers. Once Apple kicks the iPad's dependency on iTunes software for iOS updates, homes will start to have appliances instead of computers.
And without your dock close at hand, you're stuck on a tiny screen with no physical keyboard.
Without being close at your desk, your point is moot.
You appear to have forgotten laptops, you know, computers that use your lap as your desk. I ride public transit to and from work, and I pass the time by coding on my 10" netbook.
a train station is where the trains stop, a bus station is where the buses stop
What does that mean for the video game consoles sold by Sony Computer Entertainment?
when I can just a good monitor and put a small Eee pc behind it with hdmi, gigabit ethernet, basically the whole Internet and any "app" I want, those Internet Ready devices fall flat.
Except home theater PCs aren't very common except among geeks. One reason is connecting a stock PC with a stock desktop OS to a TV falls flat on user interface. Most such devices aren't preconfigured for a 10-foot UI to start playing music, videos, web pages, and PC games. Nor do they even come with an easy tool to calibrate text size for your combination of TV size, resolution, and seating distance. I've asked other users about the problems with HTPCs and compiled some of their thoughts here.
Why would I limit myself to today's hyped snapshot of the Internet experience?
Because "today's hyped snapshot" is easier to learn to use from one's couch with a TV-style remote control.
Isn't the term Personal Computer becoming anachronistic? A minicomputer might have been considered small when the term was first coined, but today the term is useless. As for Personal computing, my iPhone is more personal to me than my laptop. Should we rethink these terms and call current PCs something new?
So we have a Layne's Law issue; now let's solve it. The PIC microcontroller or whatever in your microwave is a computer too, but most people don't think of that when they hear "computer" because it's embedded in an appliance. What is a short, catchy term by which one should refer to an end-user-programmable computer in statements to the public?