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California Healthcare Provider Wants Illness-Predicting Algorithm
alphadogg writes "The Heritage Provider Network wants to do for healthcare what technology in the film Minority Report did for police work. In other words, it wants to use technology to pre-emptively predict when illness is likely to strike and take measures to prevent costly hospitalizations. This week Heritage announced that it was offering a prize of $3 million for any developer who successfully created a 'breakthrough algorithm that uses available patient data, including health records and claims data, to predict and prevent unnecessary hospitalizations.'"
something similar - http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/
All they have to do now, is get the source, fork it on github, and add a few conditions for... well, conditions.
Let's see some academic collaboration happening OSS style!
'breakthrough algorithm that uses available patient data, including health records and claims data, to predict and prevent unnecessary hospitalizations.'"
By removing them from the list?
"Sorry, you're statistically not interesting for us anymore..."
"New care plans and strategies" sounds like HMO-speak for "cut off people before they cost us more than we soak in from them".
DELETE * FROM active_patients WHERE medical_loss_ratio > 20%;
The Digital Sorceress
I'm sure some torrent site already has a torrent for "test data"...
It's called preventive medicine; the rest of the world has been doing it for some time now...
Is to predict and prevent unnecessary hospitalizations.
Predict and prevent?
Prevent with extreme prejudice.
The whole idea of a healthcare insurance is to spread the risk between people... therefore it's pretty much necessary that healthy and unhealthy people pay the same.
If you have a cheap healthcare for all healthy people, and then an unaffordable one for those more likely to get ill, the system crashes, doesn't it?
An insurance is a protection against future problems. Healthy people also must invest in their own unavoidable loss of health.
Kodak, Microsoft, IBM, Motorola and about 25 more companies claim they have already patented it. When pressed they admitted they have pretty much patented everything that could ever be done on a computer.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
As a healthcare professional who does data analysis for a number of hospitals, this sounds like a great idea, but at the same time I also realize the limitations of conducting this algorithm process. To begin with, HIPAA compliance laws make it very difficult to share specific data about patients, which means someone trying to put together this type of information, or statistical based program process, is going to have to do it sans data, creating false data that isn't actually real case information. Which then means that even if you are capable of providing an algorithm that fulfills the functionality, the designers of the prize program are most likely going to stand up and say that it's not transferrable to real cases because you didn't account for the specific variables that are present in real world data (meaning you can't predict data that is actually already there due to the amount of errors in guesswork involved). If they made available the actual data they want extracted, this might be a possible process. But until they do, it is like guessing statistical outcomes of a presidential race without knowing anything about the people who might be actually running.
Sarbonn's blog: http://www.sarbonn.com/blog
The Heritage Provider Network wants to do for healthcare what technology in the film Minority Report did for police work. In other words,
They're going to have doctors using jetpacks to rush to medical crisis? They're going to have have huge data entry systems where you need massive upper body strength to work all day? They're going to have iris scanning all over the place so you're viagra ads are targetted directly to you?
Oh .. you mean the use of *human* pyschics to predict the future! That sure is a weird definition of technology.
I am Slashdot. Are you Slashdot as well?
Super duper easy. The chronic diseases of civilization that cost us the most money (obesity, diabetes, cancer, heart disease, etc), all have their source in the effect of the hormone insulin. Insulin levels are raised by high blood sugar levels, and blood sugar levels are raised by carbohydrate intake.
Now, you probably won't find that data in people's medical records, but if they started tracking that, I think they'd have an excellent predictor of future problems.
...than to deliver it for just 3 million (especially when they are meant to be paid at the discretion of an insurance company).
It's a good idea, but as soon as you include "claims data" in your modeling, it becomes an insurance/actuarial process. Why would claims data matter? Besides, isn't this what primary care doctors are currently tasked with? Maybe they'd prefer to work both sized of that insurance equation - raise premiums and reduce personnel costs?
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
Isn't the wider problem that no one has "Money that didn't have to be spent" on their balance sheets? If people regularly claim on their health insurance (I assume that's how it works? UK resident here) won't their cover suffer in some fashion down the line even if the times they picked to claim where 100% right decisions that removed the need for much more expensive future claims?
So there I was, walking down the street minding my own business... when a van screeches to halt in front of me. Five (5!) scantily clad nurses throw me to the ground and give me the kiss of life. Who knew I was about to be run over?
I'm sure once they get their hands on this algorithm it'll be turned into a patentable "system and method".
sysadmins and parents of newborns get the same amount of sleep.
especially with the nationwide health care bill what did you expect?
The system will allow people to forgo insurance until they are sick. This is akin to crashing your car and then buying insurance and filing a claim. As such, insurance companies need to come up with methods to better manage those they are covering to buffer against those who will abuse the system.
The real problem of course is, people have no incentive to care about their health. Oh, I know, but you say, who doesn't care about their health. Its a matter of degrees. Tell me how many tubbies you know who think they need to change. OK, now tell me how many are doing something about it. When health care's cost do not directly affect the people using it a large number will do nothing to improve their health. They already have been forgiven the responsibility of paying for their health care and quickly associate that with, if anything goes wrong they won't have to pay for that either. Hence the costs are purposely forced upon those who do pay and the companies managing it. Its a perfect system designed to force people out of private insurance for the exact fear you espouse.
So time to break out the predictions. It should not be too hard to get a few things down quickly, there are issues that are attributable based on race, sex, and known health issues (weight, smoking, etc), then compare to results from actual visits if any. It would be a fascinating project. I don't know why anyone is surprised by any of this, my only surprise is that these are not common place now.
Ask yourself this : Why should someone pay for your healthcare if your not an active participant in improving your own health. Then realize that a sizable portion will tell you to go F off all the while not screwing over themselves by not doing anything or worse doing the wrong things.
* Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Donot want... mmm.... donut want. Time to head down to Krispy Kreme's.
Oh, I know, but you say, who doesn't care about their health. Its a matter of degrees. Tell me how many tubbies you know who think they need to change. OK, now tell me how many are doing something about it.
Hammer, nail, head.
It does go further than just tubbies, though. So, 'healthy' Slashdotters... Who among you works far too many hours per week? Who among you has gone for In-n-Out, or pizza, or Chinese, instead of a dressing-less salad with some sort of rabbit-food smoothie? WHO AMONG YOU DOES NOT KNOW EMPTINESS? ...Uh, sorry, Thusla Doom slipped in there somehow.
Captcha: Chubbier. Hah!
Aren't algorithms always supossed to reach a termination result? I don't want ot be terminated!
Comment removed based on user account deletion
I find this disturbing. So the "Heritage Provider Network" is willing to submit healthy people to weekly or even daily blood tests in order to feed these algorithms? When you add up the total cost of the "prediction", it ends up being greater than the total cost of treating the condition. Or perhaps they think that they can use magic to predict who is going to get sick when. I mean, statistics can give you a general idea, but they absolutely cannot say what will happen in your particular case. The secret to healthy living is the one people have been hearing all along. Don't smoke. Don't drink to excess. Look both ways before crossing the street. Eat more vegetables and fruit than carbs and meat, eat small portions 5 times a day, do at least an hour's worth of exercise per day, keep your weight down, and see your family physician regularly for primary (preventative) care. Unless you have some genetic predisposition to disease that you can't do anything about, the above sentence will carry you well into your 9th decade.
Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
This is just an insurance company doing what it is chartered to do as a corporation: maximize shareholder value. No matter that, in practice, maximizing shareholder value means that they are no longer providing healthcare insurance at all. Providing real insurance is fraught with risk and downside - better to provide prepaid healthcare services to people who won't need all the money they pay in = profits maximized.
The benefit of capitalism is better products and services through competitive pressure. Where's the competition for insurance companies that drives them to serve the customer better?
Maybe there are just certain industries and services where capitalism is a net negative?
IF $PERSON watched Jackass 3D AND says "Hey guys, watch this!"
THEN Do not insure
Set your phasers on "funky"!
must go !
The commonest disabilities in the western world are heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and multiple arthritis from being too heavy for your poor bones to handle.
I'm a GP doctor; as folk walk in the door, it is usually obvious who is going to be at risk for future problems. They are fat, overflowing my poor abused seats, they groan as they stand up, they are obviously unfit. As a added bonus, I can often smell the cigarettes on their breath.
Does knowing who is at risk help? Sadly, all too often it doesnt.
Lazy fat slobs will on average die considerably younger of way too many diseases, and I have not even mentioned chronic crappy disabilities like back pain, hip pain, knee pain. I pride myself that I turn a few of these folks to the bright side of eating a bit better, exercising a tad more, and thus living longer and actually enjoying those healthy extra years.
You don't need an algorithm to work out who is at risk of future disease, it is bloody obvious (can I have my $3M now?). The problem is getting these fat, unfit folk to realise there is more to exercise than driving to buy their next greasy pizza.
Oh! they deliver now as well...
OTOH - Hackers and Cracker networks will probably find funding for attempts at code that foresees the foreseeing programs. Effectively for-foreseeing them (44seeing, or 8seeing, or 16seeing, foursquare-seeing) algorithms. Combined with the usual phishing and worming around, probably. A smarter hacker could put it all in some VIPs name, in multiple contracts, paid by one of those Iraq accounts that make 10s of bill...ions "dissapear", unaccountably, unredeemably, unprosecutedly. MAkes sense, in a rocambolesque, art-nouveau, steampunkish, sort of way.
Because opposing to what all you nanny-state friends out there claim, they care very much for your health.
In that they make extremely sure you are never ever sick... in any way that they have pay you a single cent.
</Colbert>
I must be some kind of leader... Since Slashdot is following me to the grave.
While it may be a noble effort to try and predict when people will be sick and need major medical care or even use the information to provide preventative measures before the events occur, there is also much potential for the information to be misused. The same information to predict serious illness can also be used to deny coverage to those individuals that have negative predictions
70 years ago, splitting the atom led to the expectation of cheap, safe, unlimited energy. However, as the world found out, that same effort also lead to bombs of unbelievable destructive capability. Splitting the atom was a neutral thing. How it is used became a moral thing. Likewise, predicting illness is a neutral thing, but how it could be used will very much turn into a moral thing.
does a similar thing - but apparently requires effort.
See this New Yorker article: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/01/24/110124fa_fact_gawande/
No doubt. People have masturbated to erotic images for all recorded history, but one or more of these companies likely have patents covering that activity in combination with the internet.
Insurance against risk is a republic (faux-elitist class) business model.
The model says we insure you against reasonable risk? We ensure ourselves from any risk!
Recent example: Derivatives mitigate losses by insuring faux-elitist from their piss-poor decisions.
Recent example: Derivatives ensured earnings for the scam-elitist sellers and assured losses for US, EU... pensions and taxes.
Global corporate socialism/welfare economies work well for others, but never for EU or US folks/citizens.
Socialism/welfare economies are not capitalist economies and are republics, but never democracies.
Unaccountable leaders are masters, and unrepresented people are slaves. How do US and EU fare?
as a person that has had multiple undiagnosed illnesses over the years that I had to finally diagnose myself and then demand tests that my healthcare provider didn't want to administer, only to find out I indeed had the diseases I was concerned about (graves disease and pernicious anemia) I can state for a fact that there is a very simple way to preemptively diagnose disease.
In both cases I had symptoms that CLEARLY indicated the diseases I had. In both cases, standard rudimentary tests that cost just a few dollars would have been enough to diagnose the disease. My doctor had a screen in which he could order blood tests. It was a single screen with check boxes. All of the tests required to diagnose me were on those screen... but he'd only check 1 at a time. Then require me to come back and he'd run another. After months even years of getting nowhere I found out that I could request my test results. I found out that the doctors I had seen were running the same, useless tests over and over. Usually for iron deficiency or blood sugar level. They never checked my TSH level, they never checked my basic blood count. In the end I looked up the tests I needed and demanded them much to my Doctors dismay.
Want to diagnose people early? Run ALL the tests. TSH level should be a standard test run once a year. Thyroid problems affect 30% of the population! Most go undiagnosed. Pernicious anemia is also common, usually appears at age 30 and usually goes undiagnosed until it becomes so severe that it induces dementia at age 60!!! Both of the tests for these disease also cover dozens if not hundreds of other common ailments. How much money was my health care provider saving by skipping these tests? How much would it eventually have cost them for not treating it and then having to put me in a nursing home at age 60 because of the brain damaged suffered because of the anemia?
Tests are cheap, and the more you run then, the cheaper they will get. There's absolutely no reason not to do a full blood panel and test for a wide range of disease once a year at their physical.
If this works, it will be a very good thing. Getting it to work is the tricky bit.
I have often advocated (in my country, where we have a sensible, national, healthcare system) the government making available an (optional) annual check up to all citizens. Full CAT scan, full blood tests, every non-invasive test under the sun, once per year, to anyone who wants it. The costs would be massive, but so would the benefits. Think of all the illnesses (particularly tumours) that could be caught early, before they become (a) serious and (b) expensive to treat. Such a plan might even pay for itself in the long run.
Probability of illness = ( doughnut intake * daily cigarette count ) / Insurance premium
Just have a medical system that encourages preventative care, and gets people coming in for regular testing and check-ups. That will detect more problems and prevent them getting worse.
void blood_sucking_jackals (Customer foolish_human)
{
do {
foolish_human.current_year_premium = foolish_human.previous_year_premium * 1.1;
for (i=0; i < foolish_human.number_outstanding_medical_claims; i++)
foolish_human.medical_claim[i] = DENIED;
foolish_human.SendMessage.("F-U");
} while (foolish_human.breathing != DEAD);
foolish_human.life_claim = DENIED;
foolish_human.SendMessage("F-U");
}
Isn't this technology called a doctor?
Algorithm, I has it. Transfer funds and I send algorithm, no problem.
"who successfully created a 'breakthrough algorithm that uses available patient data, including health records and claims data, to predict and prevent unnecessary hospitalizations.'"
really means
"who successfully created a 'breakthrough algorithm that uses available patient data, including health records and claims data, to predict and prevent us covering hospitalizations.'"
I can't imagine the uproar that would occur if having a good wank would incur a license fee...
Wasn't the "Technology" in the Minority Report actually a group of supernatural clairvoyants??? Was an algorithm involved???
IMHO, people in this country (legal or not) seem to be hypochondriacs. You've got people going to see a doctor for the common cold and sprained ankles. Tincture of Time tends to heal these ailments and many many others. So how about people staying home unless they're REALLY sick?
Also, people seem to misunderstand the purpose of health insurance. It is not, repeat NOT, health care and treatment. It is insurance against the remote chance that you have a major problem. If people understood that and paid out-of-pocket for minor issues, the insurers wouldn't be operating on the edge of bankruptcy.
I see Adam Smith's invisible hand reaching for the plug on somebody's life support.
Ask me about my sig!
Why not abstract it to a general future predictor? How hard could it be?
I find laziness to be an excellent motivator.
I happened to be listening to the public radio program "Here and Now" yesterday where they were discussing whether colleges and universities should be required to inform public mental health agencies about students or faculty suspended for making violent threats.
In the course of the discussion one of the interviewees mentioned a program called MOSAIC (no, not NCSA MOSAIC). From its home page:
The program is used by many Federal agencies and some colleges and universities.
Two very powerful predictors of future health risks are family history and some forms of genetic testing. However, thanks to a fairly recent regulation change, GINA (Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act of 2008), which is designed to prevent insurers from using this type of data improperly (i.e., limiting/dropping coverage or adjusting premiums), insurers are now very hesitant to collect any of that type of information. Sounds good, right? Well, consider that many companies and individuals utilize Wellness programs which are typically provided by those same insurance companies. The Wellness programs attempt to identify and stratify members based on available information in order to provide coaching and guidance on how to best mitigate current and future risks. Available information many times no longer includes these two fairly powerful predictors. Wellness programs do help to reduce both the employer's and the insurance companies long term costs, but the also benefit the individual members. I, personally, want to know as much as possible about my potential future risks and what, if anything, I can do about it.
Roll a d100, consult the chart.
Don't roll low.
To quote Minority Report is a joke itself.
Insurance *is* risk. Mitigation. Current "health insurance" is more subsidizing the costs for everyone.
This is kind of how I see this in my head.
Humans = Unpredictable
Humans = Virus/Disease/Etc Spreaders
The example that comes to mind is my cousin, who randomly visits people on a whim. If he's contagious with an illness of some sort, I'm going to get sick if he randomly visits me.
What do I know, I'm just an idiot, right?
While yes, it's likely to go this way, it's possible the "answer" to the equation will be shared with the patient.
It would be nice to know in advance if I need to go to the hospital .......
This doctor is right and you are wrong, most of our health woes are from bad personal choices. If the patients were fit as in Europe we wouldn't have a problem to begin with.
I have no petty these people, let them die a slow painful death for all I care.
Once you have the policy they may prevent hospitalizations. But if we build a nationwide patient database (which the govt wants) will insurers have access and be able to decide not to cover someone or that they belong in the high risk category based on these predictions. (I assume that not much will change when Obamacare fully kicks in. Maybe insurers won't be able to do this, or maybe the administration's policy of granting waivers who anyone who sneezes in their direction will continue)
Could the privacy issue that arose with Netflix's search contest be a concern with this case?
Can "de-identified" data actually be identifiable?
Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting
They have patents on automatic masturbators and technodildonic devices.
I wonder what the margin is on those labour costs.
I find it very hard to believe that a for-profit healthcare provider would want to reduce the number of hospitalisations. What's in it for them? A sudden outbreak of conscience seems the least likely reason.
All the really old people eat skip the vegetables and fruit.
http://perfecthealthdiet.com/?cat=52
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/living/2009/01/07/coogan.oldest.person.kcal
Kodak, Microsoft, IBM, Motorola and about 25 more companies claim they have already patented it. When pressed they admitted they have pretty much patented everything that could ever be done on a computer.
That may be true, but did they patent ", while on the internet"....'cause that's different you see...
Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
1. Provide preventative care to address a health problem before it becomes worse.
2. Provide preventative safeguards to address a customer's financial liability to their insurers before they become unprofitable customers.
See if you can guess which approach a health insurance company will take with such an algorithm.
(Hint: Health Insurance companies provide insurance, not health care.)
That is exactly what insurance is about - distribute predictable risk at a cost. It is not about the low-risk subsidizing the high-risk. If you want the low-risk to sponsor the at-risk, then what you are talking about is government management of healthcare.
That is exactly what US "insurance" is about - deny healthcare for a profit. It is not about risk. If you want affordable and fair healthcare, then what you are talking about is single-payer, public option, government management of healthcare; somewhat like the fire department.
If The Heritage Provider Network wants you as a customer, then you don't need health insurance! Just get normal accident insurance.
Repeat Until EndOfLife(Member) //$Profit!!!
{
PrintAndMail("Hospital Horror Story", Member);
Bill(Member.Insurer);
}
Patient: I think I'm having a heart attack!
Company: Our super-duper algorithm says that there is an 80% chance that you don't need hospitalization.
if [ PATIENT_DIES ]
then: Company: "We were Right! You DON'T need hospitalization."
else: "But -just so you won't feel neglected- we WILL raise your rate 300% !"
fi
# EVERYBODY WINS!
So, uh, what do I get when your program tells my insurer to deny me admission to the hospital for a condition that turns out to subsequently require a much more painful and extensive hospitalization and possibly loss of use of my limbs and part of my brain, or kills me?
Because last time I was hospitalized I appeared to be fine, except for the mass on the x-ray, and it nearly killed me a few days later, which it would have done if I weren't already in the hospital on IV anti-everything drugs while they tried to figure out what the thing was.
Tell you what. How about we let my DOCTOR decide what my care is, and my insurer can shut up and pay as contracted.
You can prevent illness with unrestricted, regular access to a doctor, not just when the patient is sick, but when they are healthy, so the doctor can establish a baseline and recommend preventative care. You prevent illness by providing care to everyone, so that communicable diseases and infections are stamped out and don't spread.
That is what what you get in public healthcare systems, which is why Canadians are so much healthier than the US Americans who live right across the lake or river from them. And public health care systems cost much less, too. Canadians spend 10% of GDP to provide universal coverage; US Americans spend 20% to cover only a part of the population.
It's like the private insurance companies in the US insist on standing on their head, and they are asking if we can invent shoes for the head. Stand on your feet you stupid motherfuckers.
I've lived in 3 countries, including the US, and the healthcare in the US is just fucking pathetic. The people are visibly sick, they go around sick with untreated wounds and injuries. The doctors spend half of their time or more trying to come up with the funding for each and every thing they do. It is pure insanity.
Every month, the lack of a public healthcare system in the US kills the equivalent of the 9/11 attacks. Insane.
Just predict that someone will get sick ... and then inject them with the illness you predicted.
100% success rate.
What's so hard about it?
I am anarch of all I survey.
Seems like this is exactly what a primary care physician is supposed to do.
You know, a doctor who knows you and your medical history, and tells you if something may be wrong based on your doctor visits? Maybe suggests tests or scans proactively?
A tool like this will not have as much knowledge available as an actual doctor, and will fail to catch things a real doctor would possibly catch.
California Healthcare Provider Wants Illness-Predicting Algorithm Posted by timothy on Wednesday March 30, @07:04AM from the make-hospitals-smaller dept. alphadogg writes "The Heritage Provider Network wants to do for healthcare what technology in the film Minority Report did for police work. In other words, it wants to use technology to pre-emptively predict when illness is likely to strike and take measures to prevent costly hospitalizations. This week Heritage announced that it was offering a prize of $3 million for any developer who successfully created a 'breakthrough algorithm that uses available patient data, including health records and claims data, to predict and prevent unnecessary hospitalizations.'" Oh. Lord! An insurance company using “available patient data, including health records and claims data, to predict and prevent unnecessary hospitalizations,” much less an algorithm based thereupon, “to predict and prevent unnecessary hospitalizations,” would produce a whole stack of disasters for patients, the healthcare system, and its own ‘bottom line.” “Minority Report,” to which the contributor compared this, was a sci-fi horror show, so I hope he understood this fact, but many others may not. An insurer spending $3 million on this project at this point in the process of computerization of patient health records, federal subsidies for this and related processes, and medical knowledge, would guarantee the ultimate “garbage in, garbage out” results. If anyone ever invents an algorithm that would have “predict[ed] and prevent[ed]” most of my hospitalizations, or most of those of others that I know about, he could undoubtedly invent another one that would “predict and prevent” death, injury, losses in the stock market or casino, divorce, and inclement weather. I’m not sure what kind of medical records this insurance or healthcare company may have, or think it has, on its customers or patients, or how far ahead of the rest of the country California health records just might be, but I’ve been dealing with, trying to get, and trying to unscrew my own and my clients’ healthcare records for many years, and most of them are somewhere between useless and downright dangerous even without having been run through some new algorithm, which woujld present whole new universes of possible errors. I live in an exurban county with one [public] general and one private mental hosipital, one other dominant lab for diagnostic scan, and assorted other procedures, and lots of doctors’ offices and practices, several of which have osme of this same kind of equipment. The hospital, the primary private imaging company, used by many doctors, and the various doctors’ offices can’t read each other’s MRI, CT, and other results. I fell and broke my wrist, was taken to two successive emergency rooms and then to a third hospital in another county becxuse nobody here and available did hands and wrists, and we ended up with at least six (6) different sets of results produced at different entities in four counties. It was not until some time after my surgery that my hand surgeon sent me to another facility, that can take X-ray and MRI pictures showing vital information that the others could and did not, that we discovered a major part of the problem. Except for the X-rays on film, nobody has equipment that can read all of these. The local hospital’s off-site records contractor charged me several dollars a page for what were supposed to be records of several stays for different things, not one of which could have been, much less was, predicted or diagnosed hours, much less days or months, in advance. The hospitals have no copies of these that I can get. Every page of these records, from several stays in two of the hospital’s facilities in different towns, was totally blacked out except for a white dot in the center. When I lived in Dallas earlier, someone with an X-ray lab and I discovered