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Michael Dell Dismisses Tablet Threat To the PC Market
alphadogg writes with an excerpt from a Network World article: "The PC is not likely to be challenged by the tablet or the smartphone, and many users of the Internet on these devices will turn to the PC for a better experience, Michael Dell said in Bangalore on Monday. If you were going off to college and could only have one device, you would choose the PC over a smartphone or a tablet, said Dell, whose company also sells smartphones. 'If you could have two devices, then you would probably choose the phone before the tablet,' the Dell CEO added."
You would probably want to shut it down and return the money to the stock holders.
Trying to do much REAL WORK(tm) on a tablet is an exercise in frustration. By the time you add a keyboard and mouse so that you can be even marginally productive you might as well get the tablet so that you can work even where/when there isn't a wireless network.
The tablet's niche is on the couch or the train or the bus.
Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
Agreed. On the other hand, I imagine that a fair number of the tablets sold went to people who were thinking about buying a laptop/netbook as a second computer, but then opted for the tablet instead.
Reality disagrees with Mr Dell. PC sales are falling, smartphone and tablet sales are rising.
http://computerblogshots.7dayshootout.com/computers/personal-desktop-computers/
The PC IS dying. Gamers moved to consoles, for other reasons ppl move to tablets and smartphones. The PCs niche is getting squeezed. Sure, a few people need one to run CAD software or something, but that's not enough to sustain the market, so PCs will move back to how workstations used to be in the 80s: very expensive high end boxes. Normal everyday ppl will use mobile devices with bluetooth keyboards for when they need to type a lot, which is rare enough for most ppl.
Dell is nuts. The market disagrees. He just runs a PC company and he's scared shitless, so he's doing everything he can to put up a reality distortion field.
If you were going off to college and could only have one device,
Let's turn that around:
If you were home, which device would be the first to pick?
If you were at the beach, which device would you pick?
If you were on a train which device would you pick?
It is kind of obvious that PC is for work and tablet is for fun. No clear winner here.
Jerry Shen just Announced a Tegra 3 tablet with ICS for $250.
Help stamp out iliturcy.
Tablets are not the threat to PCs. TVs are. The stuff they're showing at CES this year is not far off being able to slot right where the family PC used to be.
If I could have only one Dell device, what would it be? None, I'd return it and give the money back to the shareholders.
If students could find a good tablet with some kind of wired / wireless (bluetooth?) keyboard AND some way to easily print things out for those archaic professors that still want physical papers turned in.. I bet ~9/10 students would choose a tablet of a desktop computer...
Then there are the IT minded students who would still have their laptops / desktop computers. Because, as any IT minded person knows, there are many (many) things you just can't do on a tablet (yet).
MICHAEL DELL
CEO and founder of Dell
From the time I was seven years old, I was captivated by blandness. When asked what kind of ice cream I wanted, the answer was always "Vanilla, please."
My favourite toy was an old sock that belonged to my grandfather. It was the most dull, lifeless white sock you had ever seen. I called it "Blandy". When I turned 13 my parents let me paint my room any colour I wanted. I picked a decidedly neutral beige paint. I didn't want any excitement in my room, just a calming dullness. My whole room was like that: beige walls, beige lampshades, beige bedding. The only contrast was when I would place Blandy on my pillow. My room was the ultimate in dull. Sitting in it was almost like floating in a sensory deprivation tank. Except you could see that glorious beige everywhere.
What are your memories of your first computer?
I bought my first computer when I was fifteen. It was a Radio Shack TRS-80. The silver-grey painted chassis caused too much excitement in my otherwise dull bedroom so I spray painted it beige. The cassette tape's door was a shiny bit of transparent plastic, far too eye catching. I used some 120 grit sandpaper to take off the glossiness. You couldn't read the tape labels through it after that, but I didn't care. It was a small price to pay in my quest for supreme dullness.
What modern technology do you wish you had growing up and why?
I've learned that technology on its own isn't what really matters. What's important is how dull it is. How you can get someone to spend their hard earned money on something then look at it and wonder "Why did I buy that?" To me, making items that has people doing just that, even before they receive their order confirmation, is the greatest thing ever.
Companies that go for excitement and innovation are certain to die. They have no future. Why, if it were up to me, I'd sell whatever company it was and give the money back to the shareholders. Printed on dull, beige cheques.
Bio questions? Ask me to start a Q&A journal. Computer analogies available for most topics!
I think which is best may depend on your field of study.
I think this guy is missing the point. The web is changing to make the experience on tablets and smartphones better. He seems to think that the internet is not going to change to adapt better to what people actually want to use, and it seems pretty clear that there are a fair number of people who would prefer to be using their phones or tablets than lugging around a laptop or taking up valuable home real estate with a desktop. If I can go to the library or a coffee shop or any other place with wireless and use the same interface, apps and files that I can use anywhere else, why would I want to use a PC? It seems like most web devs are working hard to make their sites more compelling on non-PC devices, so to assume that PCs have, and will have, a "better experience" is really rather shortsighted, imho.
From Kodak's 2002 Annual Report:
Our traditional film business is sound as digital imaging continues to evolve.
That was 10 years ago. The typical end-user desktop/notebook world probably has a similar life left. Just as a few specialty photographers still need film, there will always be niche professionals that need high-end desktop or notebooks, but most end users won't.
Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But then I repeat myself. -- Mark Twain
Not a desktop PC.
Occasionally living proof of the Ballmer peak.
As soon as the apps I need are available and can be reasonably manipulated on a tablet, the laptop will be dead to me. Moreover, a tablet with sufficient resources could easily take the place of my PC, with *at most* a docking station.
Michael will continue to be right for awhile, but inevitably at some point he will be wrong. Hopefully (in my opinion) soon.
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
Tablet makers should shut down and give the money back to the shareholders.
he also continued, "And if you could have three devices, well, let's just say that none of them will be a Dell."
Do you even lift?
These aren't the 'roids you're looking for.
But I'm certain that for many people, a tablet is going to replace a laptop. A tablet is just that much more portable.
// file: mice.h
#include "frickin_lasers.h"
The barbarians will never be able to destroy our empire (Rome 400 AD) The silly colonies will never be able to overthrow the British Empire (Britain, 1774) Digital Cameras, who needs them - As CEO of Kodak (Last week).
Sounds like he's got the same problem most other giants have had at some point, just before they start gong down hill. They refuse to acknowledge the changing tide around them, and are unable ( unwilling ) to adapt.
The first step is denial.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
Until speech recognition software is PERFECT, then we're all gonna need a keyboard to do much more than consume media on a computing device. So for the time being Dell is right. I'd vastly rather have my laptop because I can do sooooooo much with it. My iPad is limited by lack of keyboard to compose real text, and my iPhone is limited by small screen and lack of keyboard. It is true that most who previously used PC's to consume media did so because there weren't alternatives. Now that there are alternatives, the tablets have a niche. But the usefulness of the PC, particularly the laptop, isn't going away for a long time, I think. -- Josh
...and Kodak dismisses digital cameras as a threat to the photo film industry.
Didn't Kodak basically say the same thing about the digital camera? How'd that go? My dad worked for Polaroid for most of his life, I know how their "let's make a prediction and go with it" method went. Maybe he is right, until a tablet comes out that makes the PC worthless. If Dell were smart, they should be working on the be-all-end-all tablet, or else they are the next Kodak: too embarrassed to show up to the party.
Tablets and smartphones will eventually get to the performance point of today's workstation. At some point there will be so much computing power in your phone that you will have no need for any other device. Your phone will have a number of accessories and/or docking stations through which you will be able to interact with it as a desktop, laptop, or tablet. The docking station might contain some additional compute power (modular cpu and gpu cores, additional battery capacity, and everything in between). If you really need more power you can access the cloud or a server machine at work / home through your mobile device or its docking station.
I think it's pretty naive to think that PC's in the traditional sense will not be threatened by mobile devices.
PCs are both consumption and production devices.
Tablets are limited in what they can produce, both by the touch interface and by the landscape of available software. Sure, you can make a video on a tablet (if it has a camera) but doing anything more than remedial video editing is a no-go. Still graphics production is, even if there were equivalents to GIMP/Photoshop/Illustrator/etc, an exercise in masochism. Even working on a spreadsheet is infuriating. Playing any PC or console game? Forget about it, unless the game is ported to a tablet platform... and even then the UI will be hobbled/dumbed down.
Phones take the tablet limitations even further due to their reduced size, even though their processing power is for the most part equivalent.
So, if limited to one device: laptop, no question about it. Two devices: laptop and phone. After all, a tablet is either a weak PC without a keyboard attached, or an oversized phone that can't make cellular calls. There's nothing a tablet can do that the other two can't.
Dell said : 'If you could have two devices, then you would probably choose the phone before the tablet,'
One thing is certain, no matter how many devices I have, NONE of them will
be a Dell. I don't spend my money on crap.
Look : http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_vs_desktop-US-monthly-201012-201201
People who may be in the market for an upgrade to their PC may choose to spend that money on a tablet instead and keep their current PC. People who want a tablet and a PC may choose to buy a cheaper used PC so they can afford both. These seem like they should be important considerations for a PC manufacturer.
Yes, 100% of people need a computer these days. The more important fact is that 99% of them already have one. The only people who need new computers are gamers, and most of us probably follow the upgrade path for years at a time anyway. The ten percent of people who think they might enjoy having an iPad around dwarfs the number of people who need to order an actual new computer from someone like Dell. I have two iPads, but I have literally never purchased a new computer. I've received hand-me-downs, I've gutted old cases and filled them with whichever piece I most desperately needed to upgrade to get a game running well, I've found deals at the nearby used-computer shop... My mom has had the same laptop I told her to buy for over five years, and I recently replaced a used computer media-center at her place with a better used computer. My sister has had the same desktop for even longer. She doesn't need more. But they both -want- a tablet (although not enough to buy one, yet), and I'll probably buy an iPad 3 when it rolls around. Maybe I'll hand the iPad 1 down to my mom when the 3 comes out, and then Apple and Dell can be in the same boat. For everyone above... Try putting the keyboard -behind- the tablet.
He's right that tablets don't threaten the PC market. I'm sure they'll steal a small part of the market, but the market as a whole is safe. Where he's wrong is in that he thinks they'll have no affect. I suspect that very soon we'll start seeing low powered PCs that are basically just a monitor with a keyboard and mouse. The monitor will have a built in processor and be able to stream video. It'll replace your PC, and TV although not be able to play games and sell for under $200... maybe even under $100. Systems like that will murder Dell in its sleep. They'll just wake up one day and have no customers left. It's the sort of thing that should and could be done right now, but just hasn't. All that needs to happen is a big player like Wall-mart steps in, sets it up, gets a deal with something like google TV and you've got $200 PC/steaming TV's everywhere over night with free video content.
Tablets aren't going anywhere until the battery problems are solved. Either they need a LOT better batteries, or their screens need to be totally redesigned to not suck so much power. When a tablet has the same battery life as a kindle, then they'll be a contender. Until then, they're nothing more than a PC with fingerprints all over the screen that you can unplug for short periods of time during the day.
As long as I can connect a mouse and a keyboard to it (and have ssh) I don't give a fuck what it is.
I have a tablet PC... and without bluetooth mouse and keyboard it is nothing more than a picture frame, for me.
Can't comment on smart phones.. I am still happy with the 7 days stand-by of my very old Nokia..
You might also want to know that "I have no TV".. People are fascinated.. ;)
IMHO tablets and "traditional" computers are, and will remain for the foreseeable future, complementary. Tablets provide a convenient means to check email, read the web, watch video, update your Facebook page, and play some quick games. But I'm not sure they're capable of replacing traditional computers for things like spreadsheets and proper document authoring. I recognize that spreadsheets and document authoring probably only make up 5% (or heck, maybe 2% if I'm pulling numbers out of my ass) of the total computing needs of Joe Smith American, but it's a 5% people aren't going to be willing to give up. It's the same reason our homes have three extra bedrooms and people complain about the range on electric cars; a small house and an electric car would meet people's needs for 364 days of the year, "But what about the inconvenience when Grandma comes to visit at Christmas or when we want to go on our annual road trip to Sea World!?!" Computers are no longer seen as luxury items, and my guess is that people will buy a computer AND a tablet (whether that's wise or not) rather than just ditch the computer for a tablet.
He's wrong, and here's why:
"Inkling has several universities working with its iPad textbooks, including Brown's Alpert Medical School, University of California-Irvine, University of Central Florida and Hult International Business School."
So if you go to one of those schools, and "could only have one device", if you want your textbook, that device will be an iPad.
-- Terry
Tablets pose no threat whatsoever to the desktop PC. Tablets may displace some of the entertainment and Internet content consumption tasks, but people who actually work for a living will continue to use a PC to do it.
At home, people frankly don't need PCs anymore. At work? Yes.
My mother, nope - doesn't need a PC. All she does it surf the internet and check her email. Pages is more than enough if she needed to write a word document.
If my grandparents needed a device? I'd get them a tablet. There is simply nothing they do that would require a PC. Email, photos? All through a tablet.
I don't see most of the population needed a PC anymore, it is simply too much for anything they would ever do.
Not to say there isn't a need for a PC market, but IMO that market is much smaller than most think.
I suspect that people would opt for at least a phone & a laptop, and that the mobile would compete favorably for usage time.
it gets replaced with a tablet or a smartphone because they won't want or need a computer again. If they need one for work it will be provided. This is where the big loss to the PC vendors comes from. It's the growth from the college market which has been going away and Dell even brought it up.
And look at the transforming tablets too Mr Dell. With the added keyboard, some of the office apps market goes to the tablet market too.
LoB
"Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
People like me are probably keeping Michael Dell up nights: I bought a tablet instead of upgrading my computer this year.
... so I bought an Asus Transformer tablet instead.
I've been thinking about upgrading my over 5-year-old home-built computer for a few years now - I generally will do one computer upgrade a year. AMD Athlon X2 5000+, 2 GB RAM. Put 64 bit Windows 7 on it a few years ago - even though the conventional wisdom is that 64 bit Windows 7 needs 4 GB RAM, it ran fine on 2 GB for my needs. Last year I replaced my boot drive with an SSD, and that was a huge speed boost. Thought about upgrading the whole thing to a new quad core with 8 GB RAM, but then decided my computer wasn't really slow enough to justify that
Love the tablet. I'll probably go another year or two until I upgrade my computer. The thought of this kind of thing probably scares the HELL out of Michael Dell (not that I've ever bought a Dell, I always build my own, but you get the idea.)
IMO, it's not necessarily the rise of tablets only that is causing the decline in computer sales - it's the fact that computers have gotten fast enough and good enough that there doesn't seem to be any need to upgrade for years and years for the average person. Especially since Microsoft got spanked hard by the fact that Vista was so much more demanding on hardware than XP (I had to double my RAM from 1 GB to 2 GB to run Vista at a decent speed)...right when the economy tanked and people were looking to buy small cheap computers, and Vista couldn't run on any of the 1 GB RAM netbooks flooding the market at the time.
Microsoft learned their lesson, and Windows 7 ran FASTER on the same hardware as Vista, and about the same speed as XP. Now that Microsoft is so obviously aiming Windows 8 at tablets, Michael Dell is probably crapping his pants, because the growing hardware requirements of Windows seems to be at an end...at least for the time being.
In practice I see even lightly used systems upgraded frequently. A few reasons:
-They get infested with malware and do not realize it. Their system starts getting slow and unreliable. They assume "it's just 'because it's old". Their assumption is 'proven' when a brand new system feels faster.
-Increasing share of 'all-in-one'/netbooks. This means that if, say, the screen breaks, for most people the realistic answer is buy a whole new one. Similarly, if they get sold on *any* aspect of new technology, they refresh the whole thing. Better displays can actually bring along some processor and memory sales when not needed.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
I'm sure it's been said, but, this "news" is so ridiculous that I'm fighting looking at the comments so that I can try to peruse the other headlines. Of course tablets aren't threatening to PCs. Tablets aren't threatening to smart phones. Tablets aren't threatening to anyone. There's a market for them, there's a market for PCs, and a market for toasters that can tweet - some things will come and go in technology and some will stay until a truly great solution replaces them. Yay. And I'm gonna read the comments, ooooohhhh yeah
Apple should just give up and close shop. Video:http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/michael-dell-on-his-infamous-1997-apple-comment-video/61364
I say this from experience. On one hand, I've had a personal conversation with Michael Dell, as a customer, where I complained about reliability and he offered recourse. At trade shows, I have attended his speeches and attended events with him. Michael Dell is no fun at parties. Judge his perspective accordingly.
http://drteknikal.blogspot.com/
At least from what I have seen users doing. They like tablets for e-mail, web and social media. For example, your typical higher level positions, VPs, SVPs, etc don't usually spend a whole lot of time doing much other than e-mail, web and social media - at least in my organization. Yes, for Excel or other apps, the PC wins every time, but if you're a heavy traveler and your needs are simple, the tablet is going to be far more convenient. Less weight, less bulk and more battery.
when a tablet can run Eclipse, then i will choose a tablet.
Of all things, you worry about THAT?! Do you work for apple selling iPads on commission? If so, please carry on worrying and disregard the following. If not, who the hell cares what "joe the internet" thinks of tablets he hasn't owned? Apple has already sold a zillion of them so the i-eco system will be around for quite sometime providing plenty of fodder for fanboy flame fests for fortnights (alliteration eh?) regardless if someone likes the freakin ASUS or not. There is no need to fear having to leave our basements any time soon.
Or you could get the best of both worlds and get a convertible laptop. Lenovo makes them. Got an x41 6 years ago and it's the best machine I've ever owned. It's a laptop when I want to work, and a tablet when I want to read ebooks or draw or goof around. Why play the either/or game when you can have both?
Do what you can, with what you have, where you are.
That actually doesn't sound like a bad advice for all the tablet makers except Apple. At best it's a highly saturated competitive market.
Even for developing apps for iPad you need a Mac. For people who use computers for work (accountants, developers, students, analysts) using a tablet is just not so possible because of the hardware and supposedly software limitations. PCs are endlessly configurable in hardware and software which made them so popular. Tablets are good for short texts, gaming, movies and reading. But not for the creating things where your involvement is more than the simple control on the touch screen. e.g. playing drum on tablet is cool but not remixing the music. I am not sure about the experience when you use a docking station with keyboard and mouse though.
Dell is not right. He may be right that Dell cannot compete with Apple, though.
If you had to pick one or two meals, you might choose lobster and steak. That doesnt mean that there is no market for chicken or fish.
If you had to choose 1 or 2 vehicles, you might choose a BMW and a Jeep. That doesnt mean that people wont buy Harleys or bicycles or Prius.
Mostly, just because stodgy companies like HP and Dell cant effectively compete with Apple in smartphones and tablets doesnt mean that the market for iphones and ipads isnt healthy and worth billions and stealing marketshare from traditional PCs and laptops. Cuz it is.
Dont worry, Gore will put a $30 per page carbon tax on paper for books, so his personal shares in apple go up 100 fold.
Liberty freedom are no1, not dicks in suits.
Is Michael Dell right??? Right now, if I were going to purchase new equipment for school, I would get a desktop or laptop (most likely a desktop - for home) and a tablet - no cell phone. I would get a tablet that is big enough to read etextbooks and with wifi so I could use skype. I said tablet but I really would get a phablet (something like the galaxy note) where you can take some notes, mark up text in the etextbooks with a stylus, and make phone calls.
That said, again I ask is Michael Dell right, IMO, he was about a year ago. I think he is a little out of date based on what is being announced at CES this week.
I remember years ago I went to a meeting, in my briefcase was an IPAQ, mp3 player, laptop, digital camera, cell phone and a couple other electronic gizmos of the time. Now all I have it my iphone and laptop, I honestly believe pretty soon it will be just a phablet. So Michael Dell watch what you say because just like Bill Gates and his never needing any more than 64k of ram comment, it can come back and haunt you for many, many years.
This could end up in the same museum as "No one will ever want a computer in their house" (Ken Olsen), "The world only needs 7 computers", and "640K memory will always be enough". It's a bad idea to make long-term generalizations based on the first release of a new form factor.
Coming up after the break: long hair going out of fashion, claims barber.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Anyone who says tablets are not a threat to P.C.s is a moron. OK, in their current form, they are less useful than a laptop. As far as I can see, however, all they *really* need is an additional "master" USB connection and a blue-tooth keyboard. I would give up my laptop immediately when I can get one of these with a big enough screen.
Bill Gates, 64K memory enough?
The head of Digital Equipment Corporation didn't believe in the P.C.
Michael Dell's words will prove to be just as ridiculous.
The nature of "threat" is not about "now" it is about the "near future," and the near future is coming fast.
We, as a community, need to ensure that the rights we have with a P.C. are not lost when we switch to tablets.
Universities are taking a long time to take the financial meltdown fully on board, but it will happen. The rape by the management is already coming under pressure in the UK, as enrolment falls due to excessive fees by underperforming universities.
From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
In the next release, you can use the keyboard and tracker on your phone to control the tablet. And you can "print" directly to the documents folder on the tablet. I already swapped my Transformer for a PB because it is more portable and the browser is better, but RIM seem to be coming up at last with a convincing use case.
From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
People will slowly realize that their desktop/laptop is really just fine for doing "actual work" for 10+ years, as long as it keeps functioning.
So the threat to Dell is that, rather than spend money on a new PC every 3-5 years, people will be spending money on a new tablet every 2-4 years.
The question then becomes what fraction of Dell's revenue does consumer PC sales represent, and what sort of a hit would they take from the average consumer increasing the duration between replacement by 50-100%?
This could even have a silver lining by way of the fact that consumer may accept tablets in the $200-500 price range, and thus the average laptop may be accepted in the $800+ range, allowing Dell to stop trying to undercut himself and all the other vendors every year with cheaper and cheaper laptops.
Microsoft "invests" $150 million and in return gets Apple to drop patent infringement lawsuits and make Internet Explorer the default browser :)
...saddle manufacturer downplays importance of newly-invented automobile. "If you were a farmer and could only have one form of transportation, why would you pick an automobile over the horse? The horse can travel down muddy unpaved roads, through hills and fields, and take shortcuts through the woods. It can eat its own grass and doesn't need to be fueled. If you could choose two, you would pick the horse AND the automobile."
And if you had to choose between a car and a bike, you'd obviously pick the car, right. So those upstart bike things aren't ever going to take off.
“No one would ever want a computer in their home.” - Ken Olsen - Digital Equipment Corp.
...and they were much nicer than Dell's offerings intially. Eventually Dell's product caught up and their superior service and support killed Gateway, at least in the enterprise market.
Never let a lack of data get in the way of a good rant.
The next big buildout in PCs will come from Television. As screens get larger, it will become easier to just use a TV with a keyboard/mouse instead of a PC.
Businesses will still use PCs. Power users will too. Everyone else will have a TV that functions as a PC, or a PC device that integrates with their television (DVR, streaming content). Most consumers will not want to buy a PC once the television can do everything the PC does.
Everyone else will still use smartphones and occasionally tablets. Dell would be smart to create a cheap, black box PC that is easy to use from the couch on a television display.
Those are from the last decade. You're looking to upgrade your kids computer with garbage? And are willing to pay actual money for it. It's guys like you that keep AMD in business, so shame on you!
IE for Mac was garbage. Apple fanbois or no, it's tough to dispute that the HTML engine in IE:Mac was a generation behind IE for Windows by the time OSX was released. While the auction monitoring features were novel and possibly useful for a very specific set of people, overall the experience was inferior to the point that Mozilla based browsers and Opera dominated a world where IE was shipping by default on new Macs.
Didn't he recently say the US won't have an African American president any time soon?
It wasn't old, it was state-of-the-art, did not suck and I *loved* it. But, it wasn't what I needed to properly do my job.
I had an iPad 2 for 3 or 4 months as well, provided by my place of employment. Same issue and it went back as well.
I specialize in network security in large organizations. My job is fairly keyboard intensive and some of the tools are not available on iOS or Android. Those that are do not lend themselves to a touch interface.
Many people where I work have the same issues. The iPad and Android tablets are nice additions, but real work -- stuff intensive in Word, Excel or anything keyboard-intensive -- is best done on a laptop or desktop.
Learning HOW to think is more important than learning WHAT to think.