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The One Mistake Google Keeps Making

HughPickens.com writes Gene Marks writes in Forbes Magazine that Google has brought us innovations that have literally changed our world yet the company continues to make the same mistake over and over. Google's mistake, which it keeps making, is building great products that no one will soon buy. Take Google Glass — a great idea with great technology that demonstrates the future power of the Internet of Things. There's just one problem: no one is buying Google Glass. And now there are driverless cars. After 700,000 miles of open road testing, Google has introduced its "first real build" of its driverless car and it's pretty amazing. But the mistake is the same as with Glass: it's a product without customers. "It's Google assuming that someday someone will actually buy a driverless car," writes Marks. "Not a hobbyist or an eccentric millionaire. But a customer who actually needs or desires a driverless car. Someone who, given the choice of spending $30K on a car that they fully control and can go anywhere they want at any speed they want – or another, likely more expensive buggy that will only travel on certain routes at slower speeds and with less options." Which car would you buy?

For driverless cars to work, to decrease congestion, increase safety, reduce lawsuits and lower our insurance premiums everyone would have to be driving one. For the driverless car system to truly work as desired, there would need to be more centralized control over our entire transportation system, from the roads and highways to the cars we're allowed to use, the speed we're allowed to travel and the places we're allowed to go. This, in the very country where the majority of the population fights against government regulations, red tape and bureaucracy. "But rest assured – Google knows this. They're not looking for short term profits," concludes Marks. "The dreamers behind Google, like the dreamers at Tesla and Virgin Galactic are people who are looking decades ahead."

386 comments

  1. They said that about cell phones by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 5, Insightful

    But those early cell phone innovators got a lot of patents.
    Google is probably rolling on driverless car and wearable tech patents.

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    1. Re:They said that about cell phones by 0100010001010011 · · Score: 2

      I remember when the iPhone was released and people said the same thing.

      Google is sitting on a mountain of IP for both projects. Some companies look a bit beyond next quarter's results.

    2. Re:They said that about cell phones by Kierthos · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yeah, but the time limit is 20 years. It's not the OMGWTF time limit on copyrights in the U.S. (life of the creator plus 70 years, or 120 years for corporate copyright), but it's long enough to get some money out of it.

      I mean, think about it. 20 years ago, cell phones were fairly large things that could really only make/receive phone calls. Now look at what they can do.

      So, yeah, right now, you can't do much with Google Glass or a driverless car. But where will we be in terms of those things in 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?

      --
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    3. Re:They said that about cell phones by Spy+Handler · · Score: 2

      They did say that about cell phones, and they were right. Very few units were sold and they pretty much sucked for decades after being invented in the 1970's. Cell phones didn't become a mass-market success until the late 90's.

      Google's problem isn't making great products that no one buys. If they were great then people will buy them. Their problem is making new stuff that has the potential to become great, but currently aren't because Google keeps underestimating the amount of development time needed.

      Kudos to them for the pioneering effort, but please get a better grip on reality and please reign in your PR department. True driverless automated cars won't be ready this decade, if ever. Sergei and Larry will most likely be on Social Security when driverless cars dominate the road. As for Glass, it's pretty close to prime time except for one massive flaw which is battery life. New battery tech with 10x current battery life will be required, and who knows when that will be. Maybe this decade, maybe the next one.

    4. Re:They said that about cell phones by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I remember when the iPhone was released and people said the same thing.

      Google is sitting on a mountain of IP for both projects. Some companies look a bit beyond next quarter's results.

      Bit of a difference, though... the iPhone, when it first came out, actually provided a lot of gee-whiz stuff that (as it turns out) folks actually wanted and could use. It also had at least some competition at the time - blackberries predominant among them in North America. The difference was the UI, a *much* larger screen, and a greatly expanded set of features. The price was also not too far out of reach; a top-end Blackberry cost something like $500-$600 anyway, so $699 (I think?) for a mid-range iPhone 1 wasn't a bad deal.

      Google Glass? Umm, okay. It costs far more than it delivers (as in, what does it really *do* besides display and record video/audio for that much money?)

      Driverless cars? A better feature proposition (it'd make the commute much easier and enjoyable), but the feature is limited to certain roads/speeds, and after seeing the price hikes for a hybrid, one can only imagine what the driverless feature set will cost you as someone out shopping for a new car.

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    5. Re:They said that about cell phones by itzly · · Score: 2

      Keep in mind they are still at the beginning of the driverless car development, so I'm sure they'll be able to patent new stuff as the old patents expire.

    6. Re:They said that about cell phones by Jason+Levine · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's a timing problem. If wait to invent it, somebody will beat you to it. But if you invent it too early, nobody will buy it before the patents run out. Companies are taken to task for being "Me too" organizations who let others pioneer and just follow up. Google might be trying out things that people might not want, but many times you don't know what people are going to use until after it's invented. I'd rather see Google trying new things and failing many times than deciding "We only do this one thing and that's it. Zero innovation from this point on." The latter is the path to stagnation.

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    7. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Well, that's Google's mistake obviously. They shouldn't patent the driverless car and everything associated with it, they should copyright it, then it would be theirs forever.

    8. Re:They said that about cell phones by Charliemopps · · Score: 3, Insightful

      But those early cell phone innovators got a lot of patents.
      Google is probably rolling on driverless car and wearable tech patents.

      You're dead on... I came here to post the same thing. Gene Marks is an idiot. Googles trying to figure out everything that will be needed to make a driverless car in the future... or Google Glass... Once they have it pretty much down they'll likely just dump the product and let everyone else build it while they skim a fortune off the top.

      On top of that... look at android. They don't care about selling the OS... it's free. They just don't want companies like Apple and Microsoft closing the ecosystem and preventing Google from making money. Valves doing the same thing with SteamOS. They don't WANT to make an OS but when the big players, Microsoft and Apple, are openly hostile to their business model, they have to go out of their way to promote the OS that's agnostic... Linux.

      Smart Business decisions aren't always about making 2% more profit next quarter. Some are about making 50% more profit 10yrs from now. If more corporations though in the long term like Google, and less in the short term like Mr Gene Marks and all the banks that collapsed our economy revently, we'd all be better off.

    9. Re:They said that about cell phones by Ambassador+Kosh · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I would love to see what you could do with google glass targeted to technicians and engineers at a chemical plant. Set it up with augmented reality systems so that you can look at any pipe in the system and see the pressure, flow rate, concentrations etc. It would make it FAR easier and faster to keep an eye on equipment than we do now. It would also make it much easier for technicians to look around and see what equipment they are going to do to adjust soon.

      Google glass needs some time to mature but there are many industrial applications for it.

      I would love to have a self driving car. I HATE driving. Right now I live somewhere that i don't have to drive but once I move to somewhere where I do need to drive I definitely want to get a self driving car and affording it won't be a problem.

      --
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    10. Re:They said that about cell phones by minstrelmike · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I think a big difference with the iPhone is that Steve Jobs, regardless of personal faults, was trying to solve a problem that bothered _him_.
      Same with the folks that built the first search engines, including googol.
      Now the company is trying to solve social problems, not personal ones, by using engineering techniques, not political or marketing ones.
      Society works according to certain principles, all socio-biological, not engineering-mechanical. Whether it should work that way or not is useless philosophizing. We got where we are today by using those processes and those same processes are going to get us to tomorrow. Or not. The results are optional; the process is not.

      Newsflash. Entertainment is bigger than intellectualism. The problem Jobs addressed was how to listen to more music. The problem Google first addressed was how to find web sites, because the searchers were highly interested in finding them.The National Enquirer outsells the New York Times. Not because of the quality of the news; it is because of the quality of the citizenry.

    11. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      A driverless car that has visual capabilities, and *isn't relying on maps to identify stopsigns* might be good.

      I've been cutoff by one of these inside North Shoreline Business Park, with it left at a 45% angle blocking a crosswalk. They're pretty typical Googler drivers - enough to make me suspect they're really just under remote control. I don't think a computer would pull a move like that.

      These aren't early products. They're research toys. Eventually they might find a place in dedicated, grade separated roadways (PRT), but not on streets with other traffic and pedestrians or cyclists.

    12. Re:They said that about cell phones by minstrelmike · · Score: 1

      What is the problem that a driverless car is going to fix?
      To paraphrase Henry Ford, it sounds to me like google is actually trying to build a faster horse,

    13. Re:They said that about cell phones by penandpaper · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Driverless cars? A better feature proposition (it'd make the commute much easier and enjoyable), but the feature is limited to certain roads/speeds, and after seeing the price hikes for a hybrid, one can only imagine what the driverless feature set will cost you as someone out shopping for a new car.

      I think you underestimate the potential demographic of drivers that only need limited access to roads and speeds. The elderly for one.

      How many large demographics would jump at the opportunity for even "limited road access and limited speed "? My guess is large enough to be a descent success at the right price.

      As for the costs, I am sure there is a point at which it is still profitable for Google and affordable to customers. Even if the first generation is a luxury item for wealthy andor semi-wealthy, prices will eventually come down. If Musk can do it with Tesla (assuming he accomplishes a 30k roadster) why can't Google do it for a driver-less car in a some odd years?

    14. Re: They said that about cell phones by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      The mistake Google keeps making is that they ambitiously look far ahead and then, if it doesn't catch on immediately, get bored and abandon what they've made.

      It doesn't seem to make sense. But then you remember that Google is a giant advertising company. It's almost as if they're doing all this stuff just for the publicity.

    15. Re:They said that about cell phones by mlts · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Google knows Google Glass was a fairly niche technology, and that there would be some pushback against it. However, Google are true pioneers in this area, and pioneers are the ones with the arrows sticking out of their wagons.

      The problem is that traffic isn't going away. Google's autonomous vehicles solve the problem in an effective way that few other modes of transport can, especially of one factors the inconsistent densities in US cities. Traffic is a problem that needs to be addressed, and most cities can't (or in Austin's case, won't) deal with the problem. So, the only real party that can do anything about it is an innovative corporation.

      This isn't something that will pay off next quarter. However, this is a major infrastructure change, and it will affect positively the quality of life for all involved.

      There are many benefits:

      Roads can be designed a lot simpler because they wouldn't have to be as idiot proof as they are now. In fact, highways can intersect each other with a four-way, unmarked intersection, with car computers timing each car to go through and slowing down/speeding up traffic as needed.

      Roads will be safer. Press the crosswalk button, cars will stop, and pedestrians can cross. Cyclists won't be victim to the "right hook" even though they might be on the sidewalk, going opposite of traffic, or otherwise technically not riding legally.

      With smaller distances between cars (a computer can stop a hell of a lot faster than a person), a road can almost double its carrying capacity.

      With destinations known, cars can be moved to proper lanes to make traffic flow as optimal as possible, where cars going on a road a longer distance go to the left-most lanes, while vehicles exiting go to the right.

      DWI and distracted driving will be a thing of the past.

      Vehicles can be optimized for usefulness. If someone has a long commute, they can buy a van [1] and sleep during the commute. Or read. Or use that time for something productive.

      When a vehicle needs maintenance, it can go to the shop at night, and be ready for the road in the morning. This cuts down a lot of hassle.

      Vehicles can be used for unmanned deliveries. Have a list of groceries, the vehicle can take that, head down to the store, the stuff gets loaded, and the vehicle back, all in time for breakfast in the morning.

      Self-driving cars are not just an invention. They are an ecosystem, just like electricity, and can improve daily life by a large amount.

      [1]: A Dodge ProMaster van (the US equivalent of the Fiat Ducato) diesel can get 30MPG in real numbers. The Mercedes Sprinter with the four-banger OM651 is just as good.

    16. Re:They said that about cell phones by parkinglot777 · · Score: 2

      Well, that's Google's mistake obviously. They shouldn't patent the driverless car and everything associated with it, they should copyright it, then it would be theirs forever.

      Copyright has limited protection compared to patent. If you are going on a new invention, patent is the way to go; especially the implementation of the invention (copyright does not cover the implementation).

      Content quoted from http://copyright.gov/help/faq/...

      What does copyright protect?

      Copyright, a form of intellectual property law, protects original works of authorship including literary, dramatic, musical, and artistic works, such as poetry, novels, movies, songs, computer software, and architecture. Copyright does not protect facts, ideas, systems, or methods of operation, although it may protect the way these things are expressed. See Circular 1, Copyright Basics, section "What Works Are Protected."

      Anyway, it is better for Google to make it first, so that it will become prior art sooner. At some point when all technologies are ready, it wouldn't be many stupid patent troll out there for legal battles...

    17. Re: They said that about cell phones by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Google makes android because they didn't want the cell phone manufacturers cutting their core business (advertising) out of the hot new mobile market. Sure they give away android, because they have to. Android is a cut down Linux distro. Their own apps come with a lot of conditions, and they use those to make the android phone manufacturers give them access.

    18. Re:They said that about cell phones by rsborg · · Score: 2

      What is the problem that a driverless car is going to fix?

      To paraphrase Henry Ford, it sounds to me like google is actually trying to build a faster horse,

      Uh - maybe auto accidents and deaths for a starter [1] ? Computer driven cars are much more ikely to be safer than manually driven ones in aggregate.

      To flip the tables, lets use a computing analogy for cars: Imagine if each TCP-IP packet (or connection) were hand-driven or managed. Lots of collisions and traffic jams. Some packets/connections would have unbelievable latency/throughput. Others (most) would be stuck in traffic that was inherently preventable assuming some rules were in place that would need special permissions to override.

      Now compare with our Internet (as sucky as it is, buffer-bloat and all) - it's a goddamned paradise in comparison to the above.

      Now imagine the flip side analogy - cars "routed" by algorithms, protocols and, where applicable, user intervention. That's Google's vision - it's not a new one, just one where they're building it out. Actions >> Words.

      I would love to commute to work not actually doing any of the driving (secretly I'd prefer public transport, but only if it were nearly as convenient as point-to-point driving that I can do now). A driverless car is a great idea - sure my commute might take a few min longer as "the system" routes me, but the likelihood of traffic incidents and the like would probably be lower, preventing those 2-3x longer commute days.

      Sign me the fuck up.

      [1] http://www.csmonitor.com/Busin...

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    19. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      how about uber goes driverless cars and avoids all the 'the drivers will rape me', 'you are putting cabbies out of bidness', etc bullshit ? ? ?
      call up a driverless car in a new city i'm visiting ? oh, hell yeah...

    20. Re:They said that about cell phones by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      What is the problem that a driverless car is going to fix?

      PEBSAS (Problem Exists Between Steering And Seat)

      And it's a big one.

      Now the faster horse analogy isn't so bad - horses are smarter than cars. They can make it home under their own power and they can make other horses.

      --
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    21. Re:They said that about cell phones by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      I think you underestimate the potential demographic of drivers that only need limited access to roads and speeds. The elderly for one.

      Indeed. The proportion of elderly is growing fast. Most of my driving is back and forth on the same routes. I would happily pay an extra $30k for a car that can drive itself, so I can sleep/work during my commute. Besides, it is silly to say it can "only" drive limited routes: early SDCs will almost certainly include a steering wheel and a switch for manual mode. So I can drive it anywhere any other car can go. If it can self drive 80% of time (routine commute) and I can manually drive the other 20%, that will still be a big win.

    22. Re:They said that about cell phones by Chalnoth · · Score: 1

      Google Glass, at present, is not intended for consumers. It's intended for developers. They're basically trying to get the app ecosystem up and running before a consumer-friendly version of the product is released.

      I fully expect that consumer versions of the product will typically cost less than $600 around launch time, for the simple reason that I don't think they can expect a significant quantity of sales unless they get the price that low.

    23. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Driverless cars? A better feature proposition (it'd make the commute much easier and enjoyable)

      No, it wouldn't. I enjoy driving.

    24. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't want to be that guy but I will anyway.

      The original iPhone had zero innovative features that set it apart from other phones at the time of its releases save perhaps internal storage and the iPod factor. It drives me insane how many people actually believe that it was innovative and a first of its kind.

    25. Re:They said that about cell phones by NewWorldDan · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exactly. Also I doubt Google wants to be in the business of making and servicing cars. They want to be the technology platform that you don't see, that Ford and Toyota are paying $1000/car royalties on. That's where the monopoly market is and that's where they want to be.

    26. Re:They said that about cell phones by meta-monkey · · Score: 3, Interesting

      If Glass were affordable and worked a little better than I think it does, I could definitely see uses. I'd love it just so when I'm working on my car or assembling furniture for my kid or whatever I could have the PDF manual in my field of view without having to look away or use my hands. And it would be great for when I'm taking something apart to repair or tinker. Record the entire tear down process so when you're putting it back together and you run into that "no where did this wire go...?" problem you can scrub back through the video.

      I couldn't see walking around with Glass every day. Even though I do wear glasses so it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for me, there would be that whole "glasshole" problem. But for special use stuff? Some really great applications I can think of.

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    27. Re:They said that about cell phones by gnasher719 · · Score: 1

      Well, that's Google's mistake obviously. They shouldn't patent the driverless car and everything associated with it, they should copyright it, then it would be theirs forever.

      But then anybody can take a Google car apart, study it, learn what Google is doing, and build their own. As long as they don't copy it, that's fine. And I doubt you can copyright a car.

    28. Re:They said that about cell phones by plopez · · Score: 1

      Yes, and it is a very difficult decision. If you do it right you become a market shaker and maker. Apple hit the 'sweet spot' with the iPhone. If you do it wrong your product dies though not all is lost as the tech can survive. See Apple and NextStep as an example of that, or Darwin.

      I do not envy the company CEO and/or owner who has to look at some new tech, look at the company cash position, try to divine the next market changes and then decide how much of the company to throw behind a new product push.

      --
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    29. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      That copyright limit is only a limit if you are poor or negligent. Corporations like Disney have used the "living works" doctrine to retain copyrights indefinitely.

    30. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They get copyright automatically for their code and design drawings and documents, but there is no copyright on an idea. The idea being self driving car, they can't prevent other's from making a self driving car with copyright, because everyone can do their own code and design. Even with patents they can't directly prevent it. They can patent a method of doing something for the self driving car, but if someone finds another way of doing it, then it's fine using that other way.

      Basically a self driving car is such a big system, that there is probably not a practical way of preventing others making one. There's always another way of doing things.

    31. Re:They said that about cell phones by Strangely+Familiar · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Driverless cars open up huge possibilities. Think of long distance trips, where the drive is eight hours. With a driverless car, this eight hours could be spent overnight, so you go to sleep in your car in Plainfield, CT, and wake up in Jamestown, NY. (OK, maybe you need to wake up once to refuel). You didn't lose any time getting there! Right now, you can't get a plane or public transportation from one destination to the other without a lot of logistical connections. Flying might be a six or seven hour ordeal, and driving around eight. Also, I would have killed for this car at certain times in my life where my commute was upwards of 40 minutes of white knuckle driving each way. I could actually work on my way to work. If the car could also be passengerless, even more possibilities open up. What about taking the kids to school. Busses aren't always available, especially for private schools. Putting my oldest in a driverless car could save me over an hour each day. What about sharing the car or renting it out? A driverless car could make me money while I am at work. There could be an Uber or Lyft like app that would allow me to put the car to work, recouping my costs. And doesn't this make remote shopping more possible? Where I pick out my stuff online, and send my car to get it? Someone at the store just rings it up and puts it in my car? Picking up folks at the airport? Just send my car...

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    32. Re:They said that about cell phones by gnasher719 · · Score: 2

      Two that you forgot: Parking. I drive right to the entrance of a store and the car parks itself. Much tighter than usual; almost door to door, and four cars in a row instead of two (assuming your car can leave its spot for a minute if a blocked car needs to get out).

      The other: Driving not with less distance, but with no distance whatsoever. Basically turning ten cars into a giant truck. You would have to change the bumpers a bit to handle this. You get _a lot_ more traffic through, and you save a lot of fuel.

    33. Re:They said that about cell phones by jmcvetta · · Score: 1

      Uh - maybe auto accidents and deaths for a starter

      With human-driven cars, crashes result from mistakes made by drivers. With computer-driven cars, crashes result from bugs and vulnerabilities in software. Without wide deployment it's pretty speculative to assume the latter will necessarily be less than the former. At least with current technology there is no way for a malicious attacker to simultaneously cause thousands of car wrecks from the comfort of his sofa.

    34. Re:They said that about cell phones by bigpat · · Score: 5, Insightful

      For robotic cars to succeed they will have to work on existing infrastructure and share roads with human drivers. Everyone knows that except for the original author. Robotic cars aren't about designing a better transportation network, it is about designing a better driver. Every bit of the premise of this thread is faulty:

      For driverless cars to work, to decrease congestion, increase safety, reduce lawsuits and lower our insurance premiums everyone would have to be driving one. For the driverless car system to truly work as desired, there would need to be more centralized control over our entire transportation system, from the roads and highways to the cars we're allowed to use, the speed we're allowed to travel and the places we're allowed to go. This, in the very country where the majority of the population fights against government regulations, red tape and bureaucracy.

      For robotic cars to be successful they will have to be just as effective with one robotic car on the road as with a dozen or a million. For robotic cars to be successful they will have to have navigational control local to the car following a simple set of driving rules with minimal or no reliance on outside systems. For robotic cars to be successful they will have to work on dirt roads as well as they do on highways and city streets. For robotic cars to be successful they will have to sometimes go above the speed limit in certain circumstances. For robotic cars to be successful laws will have to recognize that the passenger is not in control of the vehicle and therefore is not legally responsible or liable for the operation or the results. For robotic cars to be successful they will need to be allowed by government regulations and not enabled by them. We need government to treat robotic drivers like they do human drivers... if they can pass a driving test then they should be allowed on the road. So autonomous driving systems will need to be certified by government regulators, certainly, but they shouldn't face a slew of requirements that human drivers don't have.

      Robotic cars are not about creating a new transportation system, it is about fixing a design flaw in the current system that causes tens of thousands of deaths each year: the human driver.

      `

    35. Re:They said that about cell phones by meta-monkey · · Score: 1

      Now the faster horse analogy isn't so bad - horses are smarter than cars. They can make it home under their own power and they can make other horses.

      Plus they run entirely on abundant renewable resources and produce easily recyclable, biodegradable and carbon neutral waste. We may have just solved global warming!

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    36. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I would love to see what you could do with google glass targeted to technicians and engineers at a chemical plant. Set it up with augmented reality systems so that you can look at any pipe in the system and see the pressure, flow rate, concentrations etc. It would make it FAR easier and faster to keep an eye on equipment than we do now. It would also make it much easier for technicians to look around and see what equipment they are going to do to adjust soon.

      IAAIE (I Am An Instrument Engineer) here.

      1) It would need to be intrinsically safe like everything else brought into a plant that is considered a potential ignition source (we're not even allowed to carry cell phones inside most plants and refineries.) Doing so would likely make it too bulky to be "wearable" anymore.

      2) There are plenty of local instrument displays around a plant already (pressure gauges, rotameters, etc) and if an operator needs to be able to see it right then and now transmitters with built-in LCD displays should have been installed.

      This is a solution in search of a problem.

    37. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's one more demographic to add to the ones already mentioned; the physically handicapped. Perhaps Google's wizards are a bit smarter than all of you that arte throwing rocks at them right now...

    38. Re:They said that about cell phones by thetoadwarrior · · Score: 1

      Patents don't later forever so unless some miracle happens where someone else makes the technology a success within 20 years then it's pointless. This is assuming Google keeps up with the increasing maintenance costs. It's not just an inflation increase either. The patent system makes it more costly as you work your way through the 20 year term. Assuming Google keeps all their patents for the full 20 years I can't imagine anyone is going to make something similar to driverless cars or google glass a success for at least 10 years. The problem with driverless cars, as an example, isn't just whether the customers are there or not but the cost and size of lidar. Nearly half the cost of Google's driverless car is the lidar unit on the top. That is one hurdle that doesn't look like anyone is close to being able to tackle.

    39. Re:They said that about cell phones by Gliscameria · · Score: 1

      Google glass isn't supposed to really be a consumer device anytime in the near future. They are pricing it in that range, and making it available to the public so that outside forces do the innovating. Some hobbyist will have some great that idea that gets a bunch of units sold into one industry, maybe something for surgeons/welders/touring companies/pilots... who knows. Anywhere where either our eyes or access to information could be enhanced in a significant way.

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    40. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Highways with 4 way intersections, relying on computers to avoid collisions...

      Alright, I admit that computers could figure out this problem easy enough. But what is the benefit of intersections on highways? This is a really fucking stupid idea.

    41. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The iPhone was just an extension of the Palm phones. It was to the Palm Treo what your Haswell system is to your Pentium, what Windows 9 (or wherever it's at) was to Windows 95.

      I'm not saying that to bash on Apple (although if you enjoy that, be my guest). I'm just pointing out that it's really not obvious the iPhone was really providing something revolutionary.

      What was different about the iPhone was that it was a status symbol. Glass has too much of a problem with violating social norms.

      Anyway, this article is stupid, because clearly is offering things people want. Aside from search, there's gmail, Drive, Android, etc. etc. And *you* might not be paying for those things, but I know of some enterprise-level institutions that do.

    42. Re:They said that about cell phones by afidel · · Score: 1

      Um, 20 years ago cellphones were significantly smaller than they are today, look at the Motorola Star Tac (ok that was 19 years ago), it's smaller than even the iphone 3g.

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      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    43. Re: They said that about cell phones by Charliemopps · · Score: 1

      Google makes android because they didn't want the cell phone manufacturers cutting their core business (advertising) out of the hot new mobile market. Sure they give away android, because they have to. Android is a cut down Linux distro. Their own apps come with a lot of conditions, and they use those to make the android phone manufacturers give them access.

      So you're agreeing with everything I just said? Thanks?

    44. Re:They said that about cell phones by cant_get_a_good_nick · · Score: 1

      Driverless cars? A better feature proposition (it'd make the commute much easier and enjoyable), but the feature is limited to certain roads/speeds, and after seeing the price hikes for a hybrid, one can only imagine what the driverless feature set will cost you as someone out shopping for a new car.

      This will be a hit commercially. Think about all the drivers you need to pay. I see two huge holes to plug.

      1) Taxis. Don't worry about Uber. A redesigned,small, driverless taxi, taking Google Pay, using Google maps.
      Saves gas (no need to circle, wait for a page). Less space (two seat taxis can do much of what's needed for taxis).

      2) Long haul trucking. Drivers have limits on to how long they can drive. To get their quotas they regularly violate them. Safety issues abound. What if you just drove to a highway (human) let the truck drive itself across country, then you drive it to dock it.

    45. Re:They said that about cell phones by Midnight_Falcon · · Score: 2

      Limit of 20 years in the United States -- notably, Chinese patents are issued for 13 years (apparently, 13 is a "Lucky number" in Chinese culture). Patents are usually filed with WIPO with priority dates (meaning, date the clock started ticking) dating to the original patent application in the U.S. (or the provisional patent application). This gives them 7 years of a headstart to legally, under Chinese law, start making knockoffs and selling them in states where either the patent hasn't been registered through WIPO, or within China.

    46. Re:They said that about cell phones by CaptainLard · · Score: 1

      Didn't you read the last sentence in the summary? Google is looking decades ahead, to a time when lobbyists will have increased patent lifetimes to 20 decades!

    47. Re:They said that about cell phones by tlhIngan · · Score: 1

      What is the problem that a driverless car is going to fix?
        To paraphrase Henry Ford, it sounds to me like google is actually trying to build a faster horse,

      The problem is simple - in North America, people drive because they're forced to. In most other countries, they drive because they WANT to.

      This is problematic as you have a bunch of drivers on the road who would really want to be doing anything else other than driving, so they're driving distracted and all sorts of other things.

      Public transit? If you're lucky.

      In other countries, public transit is plentiful and you can even get around quite efficiently. This means those who don't want to drive, don't have to. Leaving the roads free for those who want to drive, and in theory drive better because instead of someone hating every minute of it and doing everything BUT driving (e.g., texting), they're enjoying the ride and the art of driving.

    48. Re:They said that about cell phones by CaptainLard · · Score: 1

      Driverless cars? A better feature proposition (it'd make the commute much easier and enjoyable), but the feature is limited to certain roads/speeds, and after seeing the price hikes for a hybrid, one can only imagine what the driverless feature set will cost you as someone out shopping for a new car.

      Do you mean like the price hike for power windows, automatic transmissions, disc brakes, powered brakes, fuel injection, stereo systems, air conditioning, power steering, etc...

      All of those used to be expensive options and now even economy cars come standard with all of it. Hell you can buy a hybrid today for under $20k! Thats $12k less than the average new car price!

    49. Re:They said that about cell phones by queazocotal · · Score: 2

      There is no reason for much of this stuff for it to be your car.
      And, indeed, it might be considerably more efficient if it wasn't.

    50. Re:They said that about cell phones by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 1

      Driverless cars open up huge possibilities. Think of long distance trips, where the drive is eight hours.

      Uhhh... no, these are NOT designed for long-distance trips. Their max speed is 25 MPH, so that eight hour trip would take more like 20 hours. And with the current 100 mile range, you would need to recharge four times for that trip, making it more like several days.

      Think of driverless cars as not replacing real cars, but replacing the bicycle for when the weather is bad or when you don't have the physical fitness to pedal one for much distance.

      --
      "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
      --- Jerry Garcia
    51. Re:They said that about cell phones by bartle · · Score: 1

      You raise an excellent set of points. I may not trust in a computer to drive me someplace but if I could arrive at the airport and send for my car to meet me there... that could be worth quite a lot.

    52. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Google just dumped $250 million on Uber. Why? Because then they never have to actually sell a single car. They are ALL fleet vehicles (and electric ASAP). You end up paying a few pennies per mile, the sooner you reserve the cheaper the price. Commuters would get a wicked good deal while everyone else puts the price they want to pay into an app and when the market can bear them their car shows up (internet of things), or they put in the time they need to be somewhere and and the app gives you a price.

    53. Re:They said that about cell phones by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      And I doubt you can copyright a car.

      No, you can't. That's why we wouldn't steal one.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    54. Re:They said that about cell phones by RyoShin · · Score: 1

      What about sharing the car or renting it out? A driverless car could make me money while I am at work.

      I believe the end result of driverless cars (which, I agree, would have a large amount of demand from the general public) is the advent of "auto clubs". Most people would just belong to one of these clubs in lieu of owning their own vehicle and be able to order up a car on demand or reserve ahead of time, and it would drive itself to the person. Garages and apartment parking spaces would become extravagances (how many more apartments could you build in the same area if you didn't have to consider parking?). The rider just pays a fuel cost based on the trip.

      I don't see Auto Clubs as springing forth from the ground, either; they seem like the natural evolution of companies like Enterprise Rental, or even insurance companies who want to keep people on their plans but have more control over the car. Heck, the insurance companies could offer smaller programs like this if people agree to drive their (manual) car less--thus reducing the risk of an accident--and will help convert society to mostly self-driving cars.

      The obvious problem with this is the daily commute. This would be worked out before such clubs became ubiquitous through two mechanisms:
      1) Auto clubs would offer "pool" cars; it doesn't matter if your drive takes that much longer if you can work or sleep during it[1]
      2) Self-driving buses, half the size and twice the routes. They can be "called", so if no one is at a stop waiting it will keep on going (cutting down travel time at the expense of a regular schedule). You may even be able to have them come right to your door.

      I think 2 will happen first: buses offer greater savings in fuel and tend to have very strict routes so there's less concern about "unknown" streets. Google already has a bus fleet (or they contract one), so doing this makes sense for them to do a proof of concept especially as people complain about the problems of their buses using normal stops. It would also be easier for smallish cities to implement these than take on a fleet of normal buses. Once self-driving buses prove themselves, self-driving cars will be accepted much faster.

      [1] This also offers a meet-and-greet kind of system for potential carpoolers; if everyone in your pool likes sports, or likes Metallica, or likes basketweaving, it could make carpooling far more interesting. (There would, of course, be the "I want to be left the fuck alone" car pools.)

    55. Re:They said that about cell phones by dgatwood · · Score: 2

      Their max speed is 25 MPH...

      For a prototype, I guess I can understand that, but I wouldn't expect that limit to hang around very long. After all, the faster the road, the fewer the number of things a driver has to worry about. I'd expect automated freeway driving to require even less computing power at 70 MPH than a city street at 25 MPH. After all, there's only about one entrance every mile or two, they're all ramps, and there are no pedestrians, equestrians, etc. to step in front of you. And it isn't as though any human can avoid hitting deer, so it doesn't really matter that the computer can't, either. So basically, you just have to keep it between the lines, swerve or brake if a vehicle cuts into your side, and avoid rear-ending the car in front of you. I'm pretty sure I could write that self-driving algorithm with little more than basic radar/sonar and GPS/WAAS.... :-)

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    56. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except that's not what google glass is. It's a video above your field of vision. If it was a see through lcd, then the applications would be tremendous. Augmented reality is a huge future market I'd say the gear vr with it's passthrough video has a lot more potential than google glass at this stage.

    57. Re:They said that about cell phones by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      With human-driven cars, crashes result from mistakes made by drivers. With computer-driven cars, crashes result from bugs and vulnerabilities in software. Without wide deployment it's pretty speculative to assume the latter will necessarily be less than the former.

      It's speculative to assume that a particular implementation will result in fewer crashes or deaths, but it isn't speculative to assume that the technology will eventually do so. After all, computers don't fall asleep behind the wheel. They don't get distracted fiddling with the radio, talking with passengers, or sending text messages. They don't have heart attacks or seizures. They don't get disoriented and forget that they are driving (a common problem among the elderly). And so on.

      Additionally, computers have more visual information available to them than humans. A human can only check so many blind spots, mirrors, etc. When you have complex intersections that involve more than a couple of roads, it is really easy for a human to make a mistake. A computer has more than two eyes, and they aren't limited to looking in the same direction, so it is inherently more capable of handling such intersections than humans. Same goes for backing out of parking places (because computers can potentially see up and down the row).

      And computers have more non-visual information available to them as well. Through the magic of car-to-car P2P networking, cars can potentially tell one another about road hazards, such as ice patches, hydroplaning hazards, etc. so that the cars behind them can take appropriate actions, such as steering around the problem, slowing down, pre-steering, etc. And computers can detect a single slipping wheel before a human can, allowing for much faster response times and thus a better rate of regaining control. And when a vehicle exhibits a serious problem, such as a blowout or a stalled engine, other vehicles can know to clear a path for them automatically, reducing the risk of secondary collisions. Computer-controlled vehicles can potentially shift the lanes over en masse to steer around wrecks without slowing down nearly as much as humans would, further reducing the risk of secondary collisions. And so on.

      In short, the idea that computers won't be better than humans is simply inconceivable, at least in the long term, and probably in the medium term as well.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    58. Re:They said that about cell phones by Strangely+Familiar · · Score: 1

      I saw that about limited speeds. I don't think most people assume the speeds will stay limited to 25 MPH, any more than the top speed of driven cars stayed limited to the speeds of the first models in the 1900s. And the range is just in the prototype. Of *course* the market demand will push that limit up. There is no inherent limit that precludes speeds faster than 25 or ranges greater than 100 miles. Get this system ready to bolt on a Tesla, and now the range is 400 miles and the speed is a bit greater than 25. That's what I was commenting about-- when the driverless cars reach the mass market.

      --
      Join the IParty!
    59. Re:They said that about cell phones by westlake · · Score: 1

      I think you underestimate the potential demographic of drivers that only need limited access to roads and speeds. The elderly for one.

      We have a in-county, go anywhere, subsidized van service for seniors. Round-trip fees max out at $3.

      There is adequate cargo space on board for groceries, wheelchairs. walkers and so on. The drivers can provide some assistance with lifting and mobility and know the passengers well enough to respond properly to most emergencies. It is a relaxed and secure way to travel.

    60. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you actually drive a car? Human drivers are horrible! Accidents and near accidents are common. I can't drive 15 minutes to work without seeing someone driving erratically because they are texting while driving. Texting, not talking like it use to be. If this idiot (not you, the author) thinks that people want to drive instead of text, he's not paying any attention at all.

    61. Re:They said that about cell phones by westlake · · Score: 1

      For robotic cars to be successful laws will have to recognize that the passenger is not in control of the vehicle and therefore is not legally responsible or liable for the operation or the results.

      Not going to happen unless someone else has to bear the cost of accidents and injuries.

      Case 1. Roads are officially closed because of extreme weather conditions or other hazards. The owner fires up his Google Car and takes to the roads anyway.

      Case 2. Traffic is unexpectedly diverted to secondary roads, dirt and gravel construction roads, and the like. These are edge cases for the robotic navigation system because many of the visual clues that would aid a human driver are missing or untrustworthy.

      In such situations a human may have greater "situational awareness" than the machine.

    62. Re: They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Even if it were permanently stuck at 25 MPH, there is a significant portion of the population that physically cannot drive: the blind, the partially/fully paralyzed, etc. One could even imagine being running late at work and sending your car off to pick up your kid.

    63. Re: They said that about cell phones by Euphorinaut · · Score: 1

      Copyright and patent duration are just two different things though. The MPAA/riaa lobby have extended copyright to ridiculous lengths not just for themselves but for everyone. But even if patents and copyrights are both intellectual properties, patents are not copyrights and the movie/music lobby only spills into patenting when wording in legislation gets more vague than using words like "copyright".

    64. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Almost all of those statements are hyperbole.

      For robotic cars to be successful they will have to be just as effective with one robotic car on the road as with a dozen or a million.

      Total hyperbole. For robotic cars to be successful, they have to be effective enough with one robotic car on the road that somebody want to use that robotic car. If they get more effective with more cars, that is not a problem.

      For robotic cars to be successful they will have to have navigational control local to the car following a simple set of driving rules with minimal or no reliance on outside systems.

      This is just a reliability question. Relying on local navigational control is one way of dealing with reliability; it is the most likely way, but it isn't the only way.

      For robotic cars to be successful they will have to work on dirt roads as well as they do on highways and city streets.

      Absolutely not. There are a ton of drive scenarios that don't need the use of dirt roads, ever. If I am going from Anaheim to Santa Ana and back daily, I am not going to be driving on dirt roads. A bunch of people I know get electric vehicles to cover this or similar commutes, and either have a petrol car for backup when they're going elsewhere or rent one. If a person only need a non-self-driving car a couple of times a year, renting one makes perfect sense, just like I now rent a Jeep when I'm going to be driving in hard conditions, rather than having one all year round.

      For robotic cars to be successful they will have to sometimes go above the speed limit in certain circumstances.

      This is the one that is least hyperbole. Of course, self-driving cars already are designed to break the speed limit as it has been found to increase safety.

      For robotic cars to be successful laws will have to recognize that the passenger is not in control of the vehicle and therefore is not legally responsible or liable for the operation or the results.

      Maybe. Secondary indemnification may deal with this. (I also don't think this is much of a problem if the cars are handled as a taxi service.)

      For robotic cars to be successful they will need to be allowed by government regulations and not enabled by them. We need government to treat robotic drivers like they do human drivers... if they can pass a driving test then they should be allowed on the road. So autonomous driving systems will need to be certified by government regulators, certainly, but they shouldn't face a slew of requirements that human drivers don't have.

      This is completely off-the-wall. *Of course* self-driving cars are going to face requirements that human drivers don't have, because there are different failure modes for human drivers and self-driving cars. We also know less about those failure modes, so requiring more evidence makes sense.

    65. Re:They said that about cell phones by WhatsAProGingrass · · Score: 1

      Robotic cars will show up at Google "plexes" aka, Google Corporate with dorm housing first. They will show up at all kinds of industry housing. Get from point A to B that is well defined. Then show up at colleges driving same route over and over again. The highway, and streets are fall down the road, literally.

      --
      Mark
    66. Re:They said that about cell phones by bitingduck · · Score: 1

      You pretty much just made the case for Palm Springs/Palm Desert being the first community that puts in driverless car infrastructure. It's relatively isolated a couple hours east of LA, and there's already a second "limited access/limited speed" road system: golf cart lanes (usually shared with bicycles). There's a large reasonably well-off older population who already get around town on golf carts, so adding autonomy to the carts and infrastructure to support it would probably be effective and widely accepted.

    67. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "monopoly market"

      Bingo. Considering monopolizing new tech has been the main focus of nearly all VC strategies in Silicon Valley in the last 25 yrs.

    68. Re:They said that about cell phones by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

      Today's driverless car patents probably won't be worth much in 20 years -- but today's developments will lead to more patents in 15 years that may become very valuable if driverless cars go mainstream in 30 years.

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
    69. Re:They said that about cell phones by TimboJones · · Score: 1

      In my ideal world, I would keep my Outback for long trips or lots of cargo, sell or donate our cheap commuter, and subscribe to a driverless car service for commuting to work or making other trips around town, like to the grocery store or the bar. I don't care if my commute is a half hour longer: I'll work in the car and spend an hour less in the office, or eat breakfast and meditate without having to think about the stress of rush hour.

    70. Re:They said that about cell phones by TimboJones · · Score: 1

      Highways already have intersections. Some are 4-way signals, some are stop signs on the secondary road.

      Are you thinking of freeways?

    71. Re:They said that about cell phones by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      Keep in mind they are still at the beginning of the driverless car development,

      ITYM: at the beginning of *crowing* about driverless car development.

      People have been researching driverless cars for years before google got interested, heck since before google was even a search engine company.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    72. Re:They said that about cell phones by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      I would love to see what you could do with google glass targeted to technicians and engineers at a chemical plant. Set it up with augmented reality systems so that you can look at any pipe in the system and see the pressure, flow rate, concentrations etc. It would make it FAR easier and faster to keep an eye on equipment than we do now.

      Google glass needs some time to mature but there are many industrial applications for it.

      No, because google glass barely advances the state of the art, if at all, when it comes to AR.

      This has been one of the "big applications" of AR for years and years and years. People have demoed systems of this since forever. Google glass firstly has a wildly awful field of view for AR. Most of those systems do. To make it not feel like you're looking at the world through a letterbox, you need a FOV greater than 90 degrees, probably quite a lot more. Something like 150.

      Otherwise you hae to scan your whole head around, not just your eyes and that sucks amazingly hard.

      Then there's the tracking problem: figuring out where the headset IS in that industrial plant, to within the few cm or mm required for decent AR. Google glass doesn't address that problem. To address it, you need to chuck in a huge number of either tracking markers, or RF tracking tags (don't work well with metal) or some similar system. No only is that hugely expensive, it's also pretty much an unsolved problem in complex environment.

      And then there's the big problem of eye calibration: calibrating the glasses so you know which pixel corresponds to where more or less on the viewer's eye. There are some decent enough algorithms and techniques to do that and they work fine until the headset shifts by 0.1mm and throws off the calibration enough for it to suck.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    73. Re:They said that about cell phones by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Are any of my next 2 cars going to be massively revolutionary, like the first big evolution of cars in 30-40+ years? Hard to say. I suppose it's possible.

      The evolution of automobiles doesn't come evenly, it comes in lumps. So it certainly is possible, and given how many automakers are working on self-driving cars, it actually seems likely.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    74. Re:They said that about cell phones by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Who needs a human to get into a long-haul truck at all? Let the computer drive it between freight depots located directly on the highway, shift the load automatically (using intelligent fork lifts) to smaller trucks, and send those out into the neighborhoods. It would be both cheaper and easier than having OTR trucks actually drive into towns.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    75. Re:They said that about cell phones by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      computers don't fall asleep behind the wheel.

      Sure they do. I've had computers go into sleep mode spontaneously. In the car, the analogue would be an equipment or software failure causing the system to believe it was meant to be switched off.

      They don't get distracted fiddling with the radio, talking with passengers, or sending text messages

      If they're smart enough not to give the self-drive system other things to do that it can get wrong and thus spend too much time on them and fail at driving, that's true. Even logging could fall into this category.

      They don't have heart attacks or seizures.

      Sure they do, at least, computer hardware does fail, just like our hardware.

      Additionally, computers have more visual information available to them than humans.

      Right up until the sensors ice over, or whatever. When your eyelids have ice crystals on them, you can blink a bunch and get partial vision back. This in particular is what is holding self-driving cars back now, and for that matter, self-flying planes. If the stall indicators fail for any one of several reasons then your only hope is that the pilot will feel what's happening and correct it. We'll have to turn vehicles into a rolling collection of redundant sensors to fix this problem, and the cost of the car will double.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    76. Re:They said that about cell phones by Dr.+Tom · · Score: 1

      "Someone who, given the choice of spending $30K on a car that they fully control and can go anywhere they want at any speed they want – or another, likely more expensive buggy that will only travel on certain routes at slower speeds and with less options." Which car would you buy?"

      Cell phones? They said that about horses when cars first came out! Given the choice between an intelligent, sure-footed creature that can travel over any terrain and a noisy, smelly, prone-to-breakdown mechanical contraption, which would you buy?

    77. Re: They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But the iphone adds a ton more. The star-tac equivalent today if you took just the cell phone components from an iphone, would be the unusuably small phone from Zoolander.

    78. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Driverless cars - think zip car that delivers itself. Cars spend 95% of their time idle, even in suburbs. A whole fleet of driverless cars at central charging hubs could replace car ownership. Rural areas might not be dense enough.

    79. Re:They said that about cell phones by maple_shaft · · Score: 1

      Robotic cars are not about creating a new transportation system, it is about fixing a design flaw in the current system that causes tens of thousands of deaths each year: the human driver.

      Forgive me being pedantic about this but robotic drivers are not necessarily going to prevent all accidents and all auto fatalities even in a perfect world where every driver is robotic. We still have acts of God, things outside of a computers control that can't be reacted to fast enough to prevent an accident. I am thinking about deer and fauna specifically jumping into a highway. Many people die from this alone every year. /pendantic

    80. Re:They said that about cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      New RFC on the horizon.
      So who will be the first to submit an IP over robo-car carrier RFC?

    81. Re:They said that about cell phones by doccus · · Score: 1

      The sad thing is that if someone makes a move that's just blood and guts with no plot worth mentioning, or a rap track that's vulgar and sexist, that thing will be protected via copyright for 90 years, but if someone invents a truly life enhancing invention, the patent will likely expire (in 20 years) before he even sees a dollar in profits. It just shows what we as a society REALLY value, and it ain't things *with* value. Remember, if society really had values it would have turned on the entertainment industry years ago.

    82. Re:They said that about cell phones by minstrelmike · · Score: 1

      You don't think that has anything to do with density of the population? I know urban planners regard density as a main factor in success of public transportation.

    83. Re:They said that about cell phones by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 1

      "Someone who, given the choice of spending $30K on a car that they fully control and can go anywhere they want at any speed they want – or another, likely more expensive buggy that will only travel on certain routes at slower speeds and with less options." Which car would you buy?"

      Cell phones? They said that about horses when cars first came out! Given the choice between an intelligent, sure-footed creature that can travel over any terrain and a noisy, smelly, prone-to-breakdown mechanical contraption, which would you buy?

      They said that about early human migration. Given the choice of moving on foot, generation by generation, out of Africa towards Europe, the middle East and East to China or a horse that would only take you a few miles before getting tired or sick, which would you buy?

      --
      I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
    84. Re:They said that about cell phones by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      computers don't fall asleep behind the wheel.

      Sure they do. I've had computers go into sleep mode spontaneously. In the car, the analogue would be an equipment or software failure causing the system to believe it was meant to be switched off.

      Just like my laptop won't go to sleep while a print job is on its way to a printer, a properly designed car computer shouldn't go to sleep while the vehicle is in motion. That's not hard to prevent. The only case that's hard to deal with is a full electrical failure, but that would likely kill more than just the computer (power steering, power brakes), resulting in little hope for a human driver stopping the car safely, either.

      They don't get distracted fiddling with the radio, talking with passengers, or sending text messages

      If they're smart enough not to give the self-drive system other things to do that it can get wrong and thus spend too much time on them and fail at driving, that's true. Even logging could fall into this category.

      I think it is safe to assume that the automatic driving system would be separate (ideally, by law) from the normal computers used to operate other systems (like the entertainment system). So that shouldn't be an issue. I'd give Google more common sense credit than that. :-)

      They don't have heart attacks or seizures.

      Sure they do, at least, computer hardware does fail, just like our hardware.

      My point is that humans' ability to drive is highly variable based on a lot of factors, such as age, time of day, health, and so on. Electronics tend to fail more predictably, based mostly on age and heat. Require the computers to be gutted every n years, and build them to last that long, and the failure rate should be very, very low. Besides, I'd expect any system like this (when deployed in production) to be built with at least three computers in a voting configuration, which would reduce the rate of computer-failure-induced accidents to somewhere near the level of statistical noise.

      Additionally, computers have more visual information available to them than humans.

      Right up until the sensors ice over, or whatever. When your eyelids have ice crystals on them, you can blink a bunch and get partial vision back. This in particular is what is holding self-driving cars back now, and for that matter, self-flying planes. If the stall indicators fail for any one of several reasons then your only hope is that the pilot will feel what's happening and correct it. We'll have to turn vehicles into a rolling collection of redundant sensors to fix this problem, and the cost of the car will double.

      Yeah, I get the pitot tube reference, but there's nothing remotely equivalent in automobiles, because cars stay on the ground. What makes flying problematic is that there's only a narrow speed range in which the plane will stay in the air. Go too fast, and you stall. Go too slowly, and you descend. And the exact speed at which these transitions occur depends on the speed of the air around you, not just your speed relative to the ground.

      Cars, by contrast, are a heck of a lot simpler. There's a maximum safe speed based on road conditions, but you know the vehicle's speed because you have wheels that are spinning on the road surface. And any self-driving car would also have GPS, which is your fallback if the wheel speed sensors all miraculously die simultaneously. It isn't perfectly accurate, but the rolling average over a couple of seconds will give you speeds accurate to within 1 MPH or so, which is an order of magnitude more accurate than is required to avoid going dangerously fast in even the worst weather conditions....

      As for cameras, a self-driving car would have to ha

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    85. Re:They said that about cell phones by lucien86 · · Score: 2

      I'm working on the design of future Strong AI's, and one of our future target apps is cars. The way I see it the Strong AI system will cost about $50,000 - more than the average car and have a much longer lifespan. - With a maintenance contract and hardware updating the lifespan will be as long as you like.. as the machines are intended to learn from experience they will get better at 'driving' and have more developed personalities the longer they are operational.
      The solution is that when you change your car you pull the AI modules and install them in the new car. - There will be an interface kit for each model and make that a standardised AI design lots into..

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
    86. Re:They said that about cell phones by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      That isn't 'lots' of course, its 'slots' !!! New Years inebriation.. Hick! 2015 .. :D

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
    87. Re: They said that about cell phones by billdale · · Score: 1

      You're off by several years: you should have looked it up before posting. When I started driving a car was expected to last less than 100,000 miles, but the lifespan has been stretching out ever since... it's 11.4 years now, even though many cars are chugging along for decades more. Light trucks are slightly less: 11.3 years average. Electric vehicles are likely to change that: even without a breakthrough in today's battery chemistry, EVs are so much simpler they are much easier to keep running.

    88. Re:They said that about cell phones by OffTheWallSoccer · · Score: 1

      Then there's the tracking problem: figuring out where the headset IS in that industrial plant, to within the few cm or mm required for decent AR. Google glass doesn't address that problem. To address it, you need to chuck in a huge number of either tracking markers, or RF tracking tags (don't work well with metal) or some similar system. No only is that hugely expensive, it's also pretty much an unsolved problem in complex environment.

      Could that be solved by using computer vision algorithms, similar to how some missiles can terrain-follow and find their target, visually?

    89. Re:They said that about cell phones by HuguesT · · Score: 1

      You are perhaps thinking of London, Singapore, Hong-kong, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney or Paris. These cities are criss-crossed with an effective public transport system (including taxis). However this mostly works for the downtown area. A bit further afield and you'll find that there are busses and trains but they don't run very often, and taxis become expensive and don't want to go there. So it is possible to get around without owning or renting a car, but not always easy or convenient. My experience is similar to that in the Bay Area, Los Angeles, New-York, Boston, Chicago, and other North American cities with a non-ridiculous public transport system.

      However it is mindset. My European friends tend to think of using the public transport first when they come for a visit wherever I've been. And most of the time it is there and it works (mostly). I many Asian cities it would be a very bad idea indeed to think of driving a car yourself. In North America, visitors tend to rent a car when they arrive and drive themselves around when they can.

      Public transport develops as demand increases. European and Asian cities are by and large not well designed for car trafic, so developing a public transport system was a natural solution to the increase in population. It requires a lot of coordination between local governments, and a lot of investment over the years. In America cities are relatively easy to navigate and widespread so self-transport is a natural solution not requiring as much investing and coordination from local authorities.

    90. Re:They said that about cell phones by dl_sledding · · Score: 1

      ...It would make it FAR easier and faster to keep an eye on equipment...

      Yeah, I see what you did there!!!

    91. Re:They said that about cell phones by cant_get_a_good_nick · · Score: 1

      Depends. I think the docking and unloading may be one place where the programming to get this right may be more expensive than actual humans.

      Think of restaurants. You can drop hundreds of thousands to build a robot to be a waiter.

      Or you can throw iPads at every table for orders and payment, and dump all waiters and cashiers for a much smaller number of servers. Its not about tech, it's about cost. Externalize the feeling thinking humans to be just a cost and get rid of the suckers that dare ask for wages.

    92. Re:They said that about cell phones by MrResistor · · Score: 1

      ... (copyright does not cover the implementation).

      Wrong. Copyright does cover implementation. That's the only thing it covers. Or are you unaware that software is under copyright protection?

      Content quoted from http://copyright.gov/help/faq/...

      What does copyright protect?

      Copyright, a form of intellectual property law, protects original works of authorship including literary, dramatic, musical, and artistic works, such as poetry, novels, movies, songs, computer software, and architecture. Copyright does not protect facts, ideas, systems, or methods of operation, although it may protect the way these things are expressed. See Circular 1, Copyright Basics, section "What Works Are Protected."

      --
      Under capitalism man exploits man. Under communism it's the other way around.
  2. Not quite without customers... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If Google Cars were available for purchase, I would buy two. Like, right now. Wouldn't even have to think about it.

    1. Re:Not quite without customers... by tom229 · · Score: 2

      You could probably only buy them on Google Play through your GMail account. And the car would only work if you kept Google Play Services installed.

      --
      If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
    2. Re:Not quite without customers... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Indeed, if I were in the market for a car and had $30k, I'd buy a driverless car without really any thinking involved. I also think that a good place to market these cars would be to car share companies where they could drive somebody to their destination and park. Probably greatly reducing the insurance rates.

      Google Glass had a lot of issues that they hadn't thought about. Privacy and having people be angry about the possibility of being recorded.

    3. Re:Not quite without customers... by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      How much would you pay for that driverless car? $100,000 for one which, other than being driverless, had the same characteristics as one you could get for $20,000?

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    4. Re:Not quite without customers... by fremsley471 · · Score: 1

      Agreed. I sort of assumed the TFA would have something called 'facts' in it, that people won't buy cars, or that the killer app for Glass just isn't there. But it's just hand-waving opinion-based clickbait. Sigh.

    5. Re:Not quite without customers... by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      Indeed, if I were in the market for a car and had $30k, I'd buy a driverless car without really any thinking involved.

      So, if you had $30K and were in the market for a car, you would buy a driverless car that cost a lot more than $30K? I think what you are really saying is that if there were driverless cars available, you would not buy one, since you are not in the market for a car, and you cannot afford a car....which is more or less what the writer of the article said.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    6. Re:Not quite without customers... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      While Google hasn't publicly disclosed their sales model, most suspect it will be a shortterm rental model.

      Imagine if they partnered with Zipcars. You no longer need to walk to the nearest zipcar parking lot, it comes to you. When you are done, it drops you off at your front down.

    7. Re:Not quite without customers... by gweilo8888 · · Score: 5, Funny

      And you'd have to root it if you wanted to choose where to go yourself, rather than Google choosing your destination for you. (But that would still be better than the Apple car, which would only allow you to travel to Apple stores.)

    8. Re:Not quite without customers... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      How much would I pay to eliminate a chore that sucks up 15% of my life? A chore that is stressful and wholly unpleasant? I'd pay about 15% of my salary. If the car lasts 7 years, I'd spend about $200,000.

    9. Re:Not quite without customers... by rsborg · · Score: 1

      And you'd have to root it if you wanted to choose where to go yourself, rather than Google choosing your destination for you. (But that would still be better than the Apple car, which would only allow you to travel to Apple stores.)

      To be fair, in the alternate universe where Apple is actually building a car, almost everyone would be working or shopping at an Apple store anyway.

      --
      Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting
    10. Re:Not quite without customers... by RingDev · · Score: 1

      I am not in the market for a car >right nowin a city I find work in.

      This means over the last 10+ years my shortest commute has been just ~25 minutes, and my longest has been ~55 minutes with an average of ~45 minutes. Twice a day for 250 days a year (give or take) over 10+ years.

      That's almost 2000 hours of my life I've spent focused on driving a car.

      2000 hours not writing code. 2000 hours not reading. 2000 not speaking with my family. 2000 hours not listening intently to pod casts, in depth analysis, or educational programming. It's almost a full year's worth of labor.

      So, throw together some IFs here: IF the self driving car can last for 10 years, and IF my job allows me to work while commuting (or I find other means of revenue generation while commuting), and IF my commute remains consistent at 45 minutes, and IF my commute is fully automated, and IF I were to have an hourly of ~$50, the car could cost up to $100,000 MORE than my desired vehicle and still break even.

      That's a whole lot of IFs. Now, if you're rocking out Mechanical Turks at an amazing pace while commuting, you can top out at probably $10/hr, so you're looking at a $20,000 premium over 10 years. If you're a new-ish car only kind of person, Turking only gets you a $10,000 premium over 5 years.

      So from the consumer side, the premium of the self drive has to get weighed against the value of time. To me, my time is incredibly valuable, I would gladly cough up a nice chunk of change to get a self-drive feature on a car (a $10-20k premium would still be in my price range without resorting to Mechanical Turk on the drive). So I'll wait for prices to come down to that.

      From the commercial side though, it could be way better. Imagine being a taxi fleet operator with 2 dozen cars and only 3 drivers that only need to be active in case of vehicular failure or by specific request. Or a freight hauling company that can run trucks 24x7, even when the "driver" is sleeping. Even transit busses and shuttles could be largely driverless.

      So you are right, not every consumer is going to buy one, especially not now when supply is short and prices are extremely high. But over the next decade as prices drop, technology improves, and availability increases, we'll see more commercial adoption and a growing consumer market.

      -Rick

      --
      "Most people in the U.S. wouldn't know they live in a tyrannical state if it walked up and grabbed their junk." - MyFirs
    11. Re:Not quite without customers... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why would it cost a lot more than $30k? The electronics are expensive, but they're not that expensive, I would be willing to buy a car that's normally more like $15k for the rest of it and the electronics to go driverless really shouldn't cost more than $15k. Most of the car's control gear is already electronic, so hooking sensors up to that shouldn't really be that much more expensive.

      Also, traffic around here is abysmal, there's all sorts of productive things I could be doing in the car that wouldn't take my eyes off the road, but would be too much of a distraction to do while driving.

    12. Re:Not quite without customers... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      2000 not speaking with my family.

      Bluetooth and a cell phone. Problem solved.

    13. Re:Not quite without customers... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "other than being driverless" is kind of a big difference.

      Would you like to relax and read a book on your 1.5 hours of commuting every day to and from work or would you like to drive it?

    14. Re:Not quite without customers... by aitikin · · Score: 1

      (But that would still be better than the Apple car, which would only allow you to travel to Apple stores.)

      Don't be like that! Apple takes extra special care to ensure you get on the airport runway too!

      --
      "Don't meddle in the affairs of a patent dragon, for thou art tasty and good with ketchup." ~ohcrapitssteve
    15. Re:Not quite without customers... by Matheus · · Score: 1

      In the future everything is Taco Bell.

    16. Re:Not quite without customers... by HuguesT · · Score: 1

      Lots of ifs in your post, also assumptions. While I'm not disputing that driving is largely non-productive, setting aside some non-productive time in your schedule is also good. Be it driving (if you enjoy it) or staring at clouds, or walking, basically empty your mind in some way. Humans are not machine whose productivity is linear as a function of the time they can work during the day. It is likely that when your were driving to /from work you had some random thoughts that turned out to be good ideas, be they for work or for home/family. So it is not *entirely* wasted.

    17. Re:Not quite without customers... by HuguesT · · Score: 1

      Sorry hit send too soon, replying to myself, bad form.

      In my case when I had long commute times, I sometimes solved bug in my head that had eluded me all day pounding on the keyboard trying to find out what was happening. When you are forced away from the screen/keyboard and you must think for yourself without any help from documentation or debugger or anything else, your may realise that your assumptions had been wrong from the start and your design was not optimal, for instance.

      Now I have a more academic job where sometimes I have to come up with mathematical proofs, or at least things like novel algorithms that are not linked to producing lots of code in an editor. More often than not, they form up by themselves in my head when I'm doing something mindless and apparently unproductive: taking a shower, driving, grocery shopping, etc. Mind you this only happens after a lot of work (on paper or computer or just thinking), but the final step often somehow clicks when not thinking about it.

      So unstructured, *boring* time is essential for many tasks. Also having fun. Many people like driving.

  3. The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by faedle · · Score: 5, Insightful

    .. is assuming everybody is profit-motivated and is actually driven by "bringing something to market." Glass and the driverless car are both examples of Google's desire to simply push the threshold of technology to its limits. It's a product of "why not" thinking, and profit be damned.

    As far as I'm concerned, Google has a product they're very successful at. Why not spend some of those dividends out on the fringe? That's how progress happens: sometimes you learn something (I'm sure the driverless car initiative has had lots of implications for Maps' imaging) you didn't expect.

    1. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Mr2cents · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This article is basically saying that research and innovation are bad. That's fucked up if you ask me.

      --
      "It's too bad that stupidity isn't painful." - Anton LaVey
    2. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Penguinisto · · Score: 1

      [...] assuming everybody is profit-motivated and is actually driven by "bringing something to market." [...]

      Umm, unless you're an academic, charitable, think-tank or governmental institution, profit and market pretty much drives what you do as an organization. Google, as a publicly-traded company, is going to have to at least cater to that whole making-a-profit thing once in awhile.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    3. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Noah+Haders · · Score: 5, Insightful

      here's the secret: google at heart is a really boring company. they write algorithms to do internet searches, and other algorithms to place ads. then they make 80% of their revenue on ads. This is basically the same thing that yahoo does, and this terrifies the google execs. They stay up at night worrying, what can we do to keep from turning into the next yahoo?

      the only answer is to hire really smart and passionate people, but in order to attract and keep them you need to give them really cool things to do. really smart and passionate people don't want to make bleeding edge technology to push more ads. So they have their "20% time" policy, along with their google x projects, which are just ways to keep their workforce engaged while they improve search and ad placement.

      In a way, it doesn't even matter if these things make it to market or are successful, because any hobbyist knows that the fun is in designing and building something. When interest wanes or a key person leaves the company, they shut down the product and move on to something else.

    4. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by CrankyFool · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yes, because in the world of search, for example, Google's getting their lunch handed to them by, erm, hold on a second ... Bing?

    5. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Oh, so THAT'S why no publicly-traded company has a R&D department that spends money to develop things that will never be sold but create innovations and insights that can be used to expand the profitability of the core business. Thanks for explaining that.

    6. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by faedle · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And that's the greater point. Google's core business has no competition, and likely never will have any.

      "Moon" projects do have positive effects on Google's bottom line and stock price. The whole way Google is managing their value to investors is saying "if you're a day trader, we aren't your stock." And at the price Google has been able to maintain their stock (consistently around $530 / share for at least a year now) they likely have VERY patient stockholders. You aren't holding GOOG if you expect mammoth returns on the short. You're expecting modest to acceptable returns on the short, and you've invested on the POSSIBILITY that Google WILL hit the Next Big Thing and only get bigger.

      And the only way that is going to happen is if one of these "moon shot" projects does, in fact, deliver. And you can argue it has: Glass has implications for Android, and while it hasn't happened yet for wearables it's pushing the whole industry towards thinking about wearable systems. Someone will hit on a system that works, and there's good odds it will be Google or Apple. Hold both those stocks and you Can't Lose(tm).

    7. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Marginal+Coward · · Score: 2

      Glass has implications for Android, and while it hasn't happened yet for wearables it's pushing the whole industry towards thinking about wearable systems.

      Right - I think that's part of what they're after with these things. Google Fiber is another great example. With my local cable company having changed hands several times in the last few years, I find it hard to believe that Google sees Google Fiber as a money-making venture. But by putting in fiber, I think they're trying to jump start a new era in broadband that they think will benefit them in the long run within their primary businesses.

    8. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Google has investors, and eventually, this type of spending will be curtailed.

      I don't think this Forbes clown comprehends the power of having 100 million Google StreetView vehicles on the road providing real-time surveillance across the entire country. Want to know exactly how many customers visit every retail business in the US, who they are, and where else they shop? Build a GoogleCar. Want to take the guesswork out of selling people what they want exactly when they want it? Build a GoogleCar.

      Google's investors know exactly what this is about.

    9. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by SydShamino · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Forbes is driven by MBA-types looking for next-quarter results. Of course they don't understand the concept of long-term research. If anyone today has taken up the mantle of research dropped by Bell Labs and GE, it would be Google and Elon Musk.

      While some of Elon's ventures are public (now), the pure research is all done with his private money. Only Google is doing research as a public company with loud investors who'd rather pump-n-dump.

      --
      It doesn't hurt to be nice.
    10. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Google is creating their own markets to dominate, that's what sets them apart from the other companies.

      They have money and they're using it to find the Next Big Thing.

      Glass is stupid, but what if it wasn't? What if in 10-20 years when technology will have progressed even more they'll bring something similar but better and much more desirable, which they'll own completely?

      As any startup will show, money is easy to get, finding something the "market" will like is not.

    11. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Minwee · · Score: 3, Insightful

      This article is basically saying that research and innovation are bad. That's fucked up if you ask me.

      The article is saying that research and innovation don't make money. The default assumption that that means they are bad is a whole other problem.

    12. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by SkepticalEmpiricist · · Score: 1

      > [The one mistake Forbes keeps making] is assuming everybody is profit-motivated and is actually driven by "bringing something to market."

      Well, I think the mistake they're making is that they think that a product must be on the shelf, with customers, within at most five years of the start of a project. Google have the money and patience to play a longer game.

      And anyway, I read somewhere that the first driverless cars we see in large numbers will be really slow things given, for free or cheaply, to elderly people who have no other forms of transport. They'll be of limited range, simply between the home and the shops and perhaps some social venues, but they will be wonderful for lonely elderly and disabled people. It will help everybody get used to the idea, and they'll be quite safe and slow at first. It will help Google and others build up technology and patents and a brand. So basically, yeah, Forbes are just missing the point and don't really know everything about money.

    13. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by UconnGuy · · Score: 1

      .. is assuming everybody is profit-motivated and is actually driven by "bringing something to market."...Why not spend some of those dividends out on the fringe? That's how progress happens: sometimes you learn something (I'm sure the driverless car initiative has had lots of implications for Maps' imaging) you didn't expect.

      They are publicly held so by law they have to do what's best for shareholders. So yeah, by law, everything they do will have to be profit-motivated at some level.

    14. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And the product I would be willing to buy (Google Earth on a large external hard drive for offline viewing and navigation), they don't sell. I don't have the high speed fiber network connection they sell in some places either.

    15. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by hey! · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well, of course Google wants to bring products to market. The problem is that you can't take an organization that's fine tuned to efficiently deliver the same service or product year after year, then suddenly demand it start acting "innovative" when it becomes necessary to move with the times. So a lot depends on how likely you think it is that your business will be disrupted.

      Suppose your company makes dog food. If you're forward looking, you might do a little R&D in dog nutrition and taste preferences, but change in your industry is incremental. People don't change dog food brands that often, and they certainly aren't going to stop using dog food altogether and start using something else. So developing products that won't immediately succeed in the market is clearly wasteful if you're in that business.

      Technology isn't like that. People sometimes stop using one kind of product and start using others (netbooks to tablets) almost overnight. Wildly successful companies that don't move with the times see their sales dry up and in a few short years are sold for scrap (Digital Equipment, Palm, Compaq etc.). If you don't want to become obsolete faster than you can adapt, you have to be willing to speculate. And one of hardest things about speculation is knowing when the time is right for a product, far enough in advance to hit the mark. This was Steve Jobs' genius. People think he invented the tablet, but companies had been creating tablet like products for years without success -- including Apple. Jobs saw when the combination of processor, battery, display and wireless networking technology converged to make a tablet people would want to use possible.

      And since demonstrably very few companies have this knack for hitting the mark, it follows that a company that tries to stay innovative creates quite a few premature products.

      Flexibility, innovation and know-how aren't reflected on a company's balance sheet, so from a certain standpoint building those things looks like waste. And truthfully it sometimes *is* waste when a company invests in R&D but for whatever reason the company fails to make use of it to adapt. Nobody can really be sure, until the time comes.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    16. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by desdinova+216 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      remember Forbes is a publication geared to the Day Trader investment "I only care about the next quarter at most" crowd not people who think long term

    17. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by swillden · · Score: 5, Interesting

      the only answer is to hire really smart and passionate people, but in order to attract and keep them you need to give them really cool things to do. really smart and passionate people don't want to make bleeding edge technology to push more ads. So they have their "20% time" policy, along with their google x projects, which are just ways to keep their workforce engaged while they improve search and ad placement.

      The problem with your argument is that very few of Google's engineers work on search or ad placement, and those that do, by and large, don't work on other stuff. As a Google employee, I'll readily admit that the coolness factor of Google's moonshot projects does give me warm fuzzies, but those warm fuzzies don't really affect me on a day-to-day basis -- and I don't really need them because the stuff I do work on is actually plenty cool all on its own. I know some search engineers and some ad engineers, and they're really engaged in what they're doing, too... in fact, I'd argue that your basic premise, that search and ads are boring, is completely wrong as well.

      Search, for example, is a really, really hard problem, for many reasons. To start with, the web is huge and continues growing rapidly, so the architectures and algorithms needed to handle that scale are pretty fascinating on their own. Speed is another really interesting challenge; Google wants to serve results, end to end, in well under a second (the actual target is often-discussed, but I don't know if it's confidential so I won't mention it). This requires not just making Google's systems very fast, but demands research into optimizing the user's browser and the Internet itself. Then there's the problem whose initial solution made Google into a success: Given some search terms and given a corpus of scraped data, how you do provide the best results? And the only reasonable definition of "best" is "the ones the user wants". PageRank was a good first approximation, but if Google were to go back to simple PageRank today everyone would abandon it in a hurry because today's ranking algorithms are far, far better. But they're still a long way from done. Significant recent improvements have come from the Knowledge Graph project, which aims to enable the search engine (and other stuff) with some degree of semantic knowledge about the queries and the content. To really solve search, you actually need to fully understand all of the content on the web and also make high-quality guesses about what the user is actually looking for. Larry Page often says that search is about 5% done.

      Ad serving is actually a very similar problem. You have a corpus of ads. You want to display ads that the user finds useful. Or, ideally, if you can determine that nothing in your corpus is really useful to the user, display nothing. The perfect ad-serving system will serve no ads most of the time, showing only ads for items that a user wants to buy, when they want to buy it, and you have relatively little contextual information to use to make that decision. There are other issues as well. For example you want to maximize ad revenue which means you need to take into account the advertisers' bids, but in the long run users will more often click on ads if they have good experiences with the ones they choose, so there's a vague sense of user experience value as well. Choosing not to display any ads sometimes is part of maximizing user satisfaction as well. Arguably, doing all of this perfectly is an even harder problem than search.

      So... no. Google doesn't do all of its moonshots merely to keep its employees interested. If that were the reason, it would be both unnecessary and ineffective.

      The real reason, I think, is pretty straightforward. Google is looking for the next $100B product. Google was built on one solution that became massively successful. At the time, it wasn't even obvious how to monetize it. What was clear was that there was a challenging problem to solve, and that the solution would be useful

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    18. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Tough+Love · · Score: 2

      Google has investors, and eventually, this type of spending will be curtailed...

      Not happening any time soon. The investors own non-voting stock.

      --
      When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
    19. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Livius · · Score: 1

      .. is assuming everybody is profit-motivated

      Or at least driven by short-term profit. In addition to short-term profit and intangible rewards, there's long-term profit.

    20. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Noah+Haders · · Score: 1

      That is interesting stuff. A question for you, what's google's take on the dark web? things like iphones, facebook posts, apple maps, etc, where many people spend the majority of their internet time but google doesn't have a window in? does google see this as a threat?

    21. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by nine-times · · Score: 1

      .. is assuming everybody is profit-motivated and is actually driven by "bringing something to market."

      I think there's also a broader issue, and one that some people might have trouble really grasping: Google might be motivated by profits and "bringing something to market", but maybe they just understand something about technological development. Because the thing is, science and technology does not simply develop along the lines that you plan. You don't always sit down to make a marketable product, say, "I'm going to spend $X on R&D on that product," and then have everything go according to plan.

      For example, many years ago, Microsoft sat down and said, "I'm going to spend a bunch of money to develop a tablet computer." I don't know what their budget was, but they spent a bunch of money, and they came up with crap. Nothing marketable. Apple, meanwhile, spend something close to a decade also trying to develop a tablet computer. Part way through the process, they figured out that what they were developing was better suited to be a phone, and the iPhone was born.

      Sure, eventually the phone morphed into a tablet in the form of the iPad, but the point is, a lot of times you spend money on R&D with the intention of building one thing, and you build another. You want to build a marketable product, and you end up building junk. Or you want to build a marketable product, and you end up building a different marketable product. You're working on radar and you invent the microwave. You're working on better padding for airline passengers in a crash, and you end up inventing a bed mattress. You're trying to develop a new blood pressure medication, and you end up with a treatment for baldness.

      The point is, you don't know where things are going to lead. If you want to be an innovative company, you should be devoting some portion of your R&D budget developing cool things, even if there isn't a market yet, and even if there isn't an obvious application yet. That's kind of the nature of R&D.

    22. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by complete+loony · · Score: 2

      Bingo, Google have a policy of turning their competitors products into a commodity. Webmail, Office docs, Browsers, Phone OS, ...

      --
      09F91102 no, 455FE104 nope, F190A1E8 uh-uh, 7A5F8A09 that's not it, C87294CE no. Ah! 452F6E403CDF10714E41DFAA257D313F.
    23. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The capitalist doesn't understand altruism, if something doesn't profit, it is wrong.

      Basically, they are Ferengi.

    24. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by swillden · · Score: 1

      That is interesting stuff. A question for you, what's google's take on the dark web? things like iphones, facebook posts, apple maps, etc, where many people spend the majority of their internet time but google doesn't have a window in? does google see this as a threat?

      Not so much a threat as a lost opportunity, for everyone, not just Google. Isolating large amounts of information in disconnected walled gardens means that the information isn't generally available to the world. With stuff like Facebook, at least some of the content is stuff that isn't really public, and shouldn't be searchable, but much of it is public and it would be good if the world could search for it.

      From a competitive perspective, Facebook obviously competes with Google for ad revenue, and in some ways is a threat. I probably shouldn't go into detail about that.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    25. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by bazorg · · Score: 1

      Bringing new products to market is key, but don't underestimate the importance of being seen as innovative by the overall market. Whenever Google announces something about the driverless car, the wearables, the AI-assisted emailbox, etc., they are reinforcing that image of a company that is there for the long run, that is innovating, that will eventually bring revolutionary tech to the market. Owning a major brand with good reputation is worth a lot, and keeping up a stream of good news takes effort and investment.

      Look at other competitors and their efforts in keeping that brand value up, it's not easy. Apple is great at making their customers feel special and "niche" while selling millions of units of standardised products. When I look at Xiaomi knock-off phones on eBay I find it quite amusing that the iPhone knock-off sells at a premium compared to the Lumia and Galaxy knock-offs :)

    26. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm sure they learned a TON of information about what google maps needs to advance the driverless cars. That likely lead to improvements in map data, reliability of driving directions, integration of additional data sources for dealing with traffic, road closures, and routing (see waze aquisition). By using other products data sources and improving them, they raise the bar for competitors on all these related products.

      Glass likely helped them advance their voice recognition software's usefulness, improved recommendations based on location awareness and image recognition. Again, making their other products better to help advance some new moon mission.

    27. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by Branciforte · · Score: 1

      I work at Google as well.

      In addition to the other reasons people have mentioned, I would not rule out the idea that Larry and Sergey just think it's a cool idea that will make the world a better place. I know they would not pursue it if there were not some payoff down the road, but I also believe they are pushing it for altruistic reasons as well.

      I know that sounds naive and I don't expect many people to believe it, but then again you don't see many $300 billion companies that are run by comp sci grad students.

    28. Re:The one mistake Forbes keeps making.. by swillden · · Score: 1

      Hehe. I had actually written that myself, but deleted it because nobody buys it. I think it's absolutely true, but it seems to be impossible for most people to believe that executives in a big corporation could actually want to do good for the world.

      Thanks for saying it.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
  4. The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 5, Insightful

    >> Someone who, given the choice of spending $30K on a car that they fully control and can go anywhere they want at any speed they want – or another, likely more expensive buggy that will only travel on certain routes at slower speeds and with less options." Which car would you buy?

    The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week.

    I commute. I always have. I've been dreaming of my own private "pod" that someone else drove while I read, created, slept or talked for 30+ plus years now. Bring it.

    1. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by BreakBad · · Score: 1

      Agreed. For those of use who can't figure out how to get the death crystal from the ogre warlock on level 5....an extra 30 minutes every commute would be invaluable.

    2. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by kencurry · · Score: 1

      Uber? Bus? Metro? Train? Ride share?

      --
      sigs are for losers (except to point out that sigs are for losers)
    3. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 1

      >> can you take public transit

      Unfortunately no. The other problem with public transit is that it's public. (I prefer my house vs. the underpass for the same reason.)

    4. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Uber? Bus? Metro? Train? Ride share?

      An hour per day of time alone? Priceless.

    5. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by CanHasDIY · · Score: 1

      So basically, what you're saying is that you would be willing to page exponentially more money for a vehicle with exponentially less usability than a standard, non automated car? Based, of course, on the presumption that it operates like a train car, I.e. the occupants at no time would be expected to take control.

      P.T. Barnum was right.

      --
      An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
    6. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Penguinisto · · Score: 2

      Not sure if it is an option for you, but can you take public transit?

      Someone does the driving and you can read/sleep, etc.

      Not really a good alternative for many folks.

      Until recently, I was down to one vehicle, and the days the missus needed the car, I had to take public transportation. Here's how that went:

      First she has to get me to the train station (I live in a rural area - nearest light rail station was 10 miles away), then I spent an hour on the thing going to the same place that I could reach in 30 minutes if I drove there by car (...why? Because the train has to stop at every station along the way). Then there's the whole idea of not wanting to bring out expensive gear (phone, laptop, whatever) in front of folks who might want that gear worse than you do, and would be more than willing to take it from you. I won't go in-depth on the subject of how crowded the trains get during morning rush, the singularly uncomfortable seats (which are designed not for comfort, but to be hosed-down on occasion), and etc.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    7. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Jason+Levine · · Score: 2

      Public transit isn't an option for me. Well, it is, but my trip from home to my son's school to my office takes me about 20 minutes (give or take a few minutes with traffic). Via bus, that same trip would take me 35 minutes. More if the bus I would need to take from my son's school didn't arrive immediately when I needed it to. (On non-school work-days, I'd be looking at a 19 minute bus trip versus a 5 minute drive.)

      If I could set my car to drive the route (same route every weekday morning) by itself without any further input by me, it would free me up to nap, read, or talk with my son (face to face talking without focusing on what was on the road). Obviously, this technology is years down the line, but it'll be nice when it arrives.

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    8. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 2

      >> what you're saying is that you would be willing to page exponentially more money for a vehicle with exponentially less usability than a standard, non automated car (...operates like a train car...occupants at no time would be expected to take control)

      I'd pay up to 50% more for a car I didn't have to drive. Maybe more if it took me to work, maybe I could send it home so my wife and/or kids could use during the day when I'm away at work.

      What I don't want is to have to share a space I spend up to two hours a day in (commuting) with all the rest of humanity. That's why I buy stuff (house, car, my own seat on an airplane, my own cell phone vs. a public pay phone) in the first place.

    9. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      So basically, what you're saying is that you would be willing to page exponentially more money for a vehicle with exponentially less usability than a standard, non automated car?

      Yes. Absolutely. I'd fork over a year's salary ($300K) for a fully automated car today, because I don't enjoy commuting and I want those hours back. My current car? I spent $30K on it. I looked at more expensive ones, but their features didn't impress me.

    10. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by faedle · · Score: 2

      Irony: the people who buy driverless cars aren't individuals.

      I can see Car2Go, however, jumping on it. Or a package delivery company. Or a utility. Or for that matter, any one of a whole laundry list of fleet vehicle purchasers.

      The Google Driverless Car isn't a mass market product. As a niche product, however, it will sell and sell well once the logistics (things like insurance and liability) are resolved.

    11. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Some of us don't like people. Why is this so hard to understand? Some of us prefer something where you don't interact with anyone, because people are insane. Some of us tolerate human society because unfortunately we are all stuck on this rock together, so we smile and act polite under obligation.

    12. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Eosi · · Score: 1

      This is exactly my thought. If this existed now, I could spend time with the kids talking and helping with homework, etc. on the days where we have to go 30 miles each way to do the custody exchange. Even more so on the trips we take to see Grandma or family vacations. Not only would it save on drive time (do it at night with no need to stop at a hotel), but allow for more important things in life, like bonding with the family. Would I spend $30k on a car without all the bells and whistles? Yes, none of my current cars have all the bells and whistles, these are out of date when you get the car (still only have DVD players, not BluRay or a Hard drive bay to stream from). If I have cruise control and a FM Radio, I am good.

    13. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      I'd pay up to 50% more for a car I didn't have to drive. Maybe more if it took me to work, maybe I could send it home so my wife and/or kids could use during the day when I'm away at work.

      This.

      My family has three cars. if one of them was capable of taking me to work, then going home to be available to the rest of the family the rest of the day, I could cut back to two cars.

      So, even if they cost 50% more (which I don't believe they will - the hardware will tend toward the trivial like all computer hardware), they'd be, at worst, breakeven on costs for me.

      And I'd have extra time to do things worthwhile instead of staring through a "dirty pane of silica glass" watching all the other potential lunatics around me....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    14. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >> can you take public transit

      Unfortunately no. The other problem with public transit is that it's public. (I prefer my house vs. the underpass for the same reason.)

      What's the matter too many black people?

    15. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think that avoiding contact with others during commute may seem a plus for many people

    16. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by rsborg · · Score: 1

      Not sure if it is an option for you, but can you take public transit?

      Someone does the driving and you can read/sleep, etc.

      Not really a good alternative for many folks.

      Until recently, I was down to one vehicle, and the days the missus needed the car, I had to take public transportation. Here's how that went:

      First she has to get me to the train station (I live in a rural area - nearest light rail station was 10 miles away), then I spent an hour on the thing going to the same place that I could reach in 30 minutes if I drove there by car (...why? Because the train has to stop at every station along the way). Then there's the whole idea of not wanting to bring out expensive gear (phone, laptop, whatever) in front of folks who might want that gear worse than you do, and would be more than willing to take it from you. I won't go in-depth on the subject of how crowded the trains get during morning rush, the singularly uncomfortable seats (which are designed not for comfort, but to be hosed-down on occasion), and etc.

      You should have just stopped at the "rural" part. Unless you live in some socialist public-transport-paradise (i.e., parts of France, Russia, Brazil, Hong Kong, and the UK pre-Thatcher) public transport for rural areas is just pathetic, and even in some of those cases it's still never going to be good.

      What's sad is that in many urban/suburban places there *could* be good rail service, but there won't be. Which is sad, even for folks who would never use public transit, as getting those grudging car commuters off the road you share will just make your drive better/faster/safer.

      --
      Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting
    17. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So, then, it is safe to say that the roads along your commute are all about a 20 mph speed limit and are ones that are either already all set for driverless cars or are in the top of the list for roads that will be set up for driverless cars? That all your shopping and other purchase needs are the same (other than what can be mail ordered/delivered?).

      And of course, that you also have another vehicle for when you need to go other places than those along that aforementioned 20 mph road, where, perhaps, the speed limit may be 45 mph or higher?

    18. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Viol8 · · Score: 1

      "Well, it is, but my trip from home to my son's school to my office takes me about 20 minutes (give or take a few minutes with traffic). Via bus, that same trip would take me 35 minutes."

      Wow. A whole extra FIFTEEN minutes! Poor ickle you, I feel your pain!

      People like you are part of the problem sitting on your fat backsides in your pumped up 4x4s outside the school gates blocking the road, causing traffic jams and needless pollution. I could understand it if the bus took 2 hours but if your seriously whining about an extra 15 minutes then you're beyond pathetic.

    19. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 1

      Uber?

      All I have to do is wait at least 10-15 minutes before I can go anywhere.

      Bus? Metro? Train? Ride share?

      Fine, if I'm going where it goes when it goes there. Which can be very limited.

    20. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your assignment today is to learn what "exponentially" means.

      I'll start you off with a hint: it doesn't mean "Like, Idunno, a lot I guess?" as you obviously think.

    21. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by meta-monkey · · Score: 1

      Like some kind of commoner?! Are you daft, man?

      Really though, I couldn't do any of those things. I live 5 miles outside of a small town and work in town. There's no bus stops near me, there is no train, no coworkers live nearby and fuck if I'm taking a taxi to work every day. In the vast bulk of America you have to have a car to get around.

      --
      We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
    22. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am going to go make popcorn now, and wait for the greenies and the traffic congestion folks to comment on your new car driving twice as many miles as your old one.

    23. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't think any of those really compete with the google car here. Uber is scary, the bus is for plebes/weirdos, the train is often late and is expensive... to "ride share" means sometimes you'd probably drive... This is something you own and control, and that has unique value.

      I think if anything the google car competes with bicycles. I can go 25mph on my bicycle, so why would I buy a driverless car for that privilege? If you can get to work on roads that are 25mph, you can ride a bike to work and ditch the car.

    24. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He's not "whining" about anything, you just made up a strawman to rage at because you know you're too dumb to argue against his actual position.

    25. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Livius · · Score: 1

      Every positive real number, no matter how large or small, can be expressed 'exponentially'.

    26. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Jason+Levine · · Score: 1

      First of all, "pumped up 4x4"? I drive a sedan. It comfortably seats 4 but is by no stretch of the imagination big.

      Secondly, I did mention that this 15 minutes was a best case of "the next bus arrives just as I drop my son off." In the real world, this would likely never happen. First, we would need to wait for the initial bus. It looks like these run every 40 minutes. We might get lucky and arrive just in time to catch the bus or we might miss it and need to wait another 40 minutes. Let's split the difference and say we wait 20 minutes. Then, after dropping my son off, I'd need to wait for another bus that runs every 30 minutes. Again, I might miss it or just make it so let's add 15 minutes of waiting. Suddenly, that "only 15 minutes more" has turned into 50 minutes more. I could make a 20 minute car trip or a 70 minute bus ride. Add in the fact that my son needs to be dropped off for school 15 minutes before I need to be in to work and it should be clear why the bus just isn't an option for me.

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    27. Re:The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I could understand it if the bus took 2 hours but if your seriously whining about an extra 15 minutes then you're beyond pathetic.

      Assuming a trip that one makes twice a day, every four days it does take two hours. If someone works two hundred forty days a year, that's one hundred twenty hours. Work for forty-five years and that's 5400 hours. So basically that's more than two and a half years worth of forty hour weeks just for the privilege of public transit.

      And all that ignores how this could work with public transit. What if the driverless taxis took people from home to an express pick up. Instead of taking a bus based on its route being close to home, pick one that is going mostly where you want to go. Because it's an express, it only slows your commute a little. If it moves you into a High Occupancy Vehicle lane, it might even speed things up. Not quite where you need to go at the other end? Get another driverless taxi to finish the trip.

      Or road trains. If two or more driverless vehicles are going the same direction, they link up. Most of the time, one engine will be enough to maintain speed. That gets back some of the loss from using a private car over public transit while maintaining most of the benefits of a private car. Even if the driverless car travels a little slower than you would drive, you make it back by not having to park the car. Either it self-parks or you took a taxi.

  5. One Mistake You Won't BELIEVE Google Keeps Making by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is changing technology forever. Literally.

  6. How is it a mistake? by machineghost · · Score: 5, Insightful

    From the blurb:

    "the company continues to make the same mistake over and over. Google's mistake, ..."

    "But rest assured – Google knows this. They're not looking for short term profits"

    So, it's a mistake ... but they know exactly what they're doing and they're not trying to make short term profits, which means it's not a mistake?

    1. Re:How is it a mistake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, I was thinking the same thing. "It's a mistake to not make immediate profit..." and...they are in it for long term profits. One of the reasons why Google was so successful is that they didn't monetize Google search until they had improved it until almost everyone was using it.

    2. Re:How is it a mistake? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's not, and it's not real.

      Google made or acquired Gmail, GTalk/Hangouts, Plus, Picasa, Youtube, Docs, an OAuth thing, Chrome, Android, Glass, driverless cars, and so on. Lots of Google products have failed; lots have succeeded.

      Google makes things which give them options for monetization, licensing, or new things. The Google car, Google glass, they get Google press and create markets (Google Glass basically created the wearables market; smart watches took over after that, rather than smart glasses). Future potential is there, but so is cross-potential: Google Glass and Android smart watches both share similar characteristics, so many of the same problems solved for one apply to the other. Google's self-driving car might see upgrades and porting into GM and Tesla offerings. It could happen.

      By and large, the most important impact of Google's constant experimentation is the sweeping domination of a multitude of markets. Android brought hundreds of millions of users to Google and GMail, ripe for serving ads through that little bar at the top of Gmail. Hangouts brings people to Gmail. Plus was a flop, but is still tangentially used: Google Pictures is Google Plus, and Google Plus is tied into Picasa. People use Picasa. People use Google Docs and Google Drive.

      All of these things are things that stuck. Google Drive now sells storage space; sharing links to Google Drive attracts people to Google services. Chrome attracts people to Chromebooks, which attracts them to Google Drive, Gmail, and so on. Failed products could have been these things, but weren't; successful products could have been failed products, but were attempted anyway, and didn't fail.

      That's what Google does: they make shit, and see what sticks.

    3. Re:How is it a mistake? by amplesand · · Score: 1

      You are correct. ""the company continues to make the same mistake over and over. Google's mistake" is not a mistake.

      Look:

      "IBM Just Bet $3 Billion Of Its Research Budget On The Death Of Moore's Law" http://www.forbes.com/sites/al...

      From "Microsoft, the world's best kept R&D secret" http://www.techhive.com/articl... :

      "In 2011 alone, Microsoft's R&D budget reached a record high of $9.6 billion (yes, with a "B").", "Blending touch and touchscreens" "Windows 8 will be a success"

      Ok, I made up the last one.

      Still, of course Google sees this as a long-term potential, perhaps decades away, or less. Volvo has the same thing, on the road:

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/mot...


      There's a scene in the cult 1990 Arnold Schwarzenegger film Total Recall in which our hero jumps in a driverless taxi, part of a fleet that ferries passengers around a nameless city, using unspecified technology to safely navigate traffic and pedestrians.

      The sci-fi film is set in 2084. But the world's first fleet of self-driving city vehicles is almost here, 70 years ahead of schedule and courtesy of Volvo. The Swedish car maker is to unleash 100 of them on the public roads of Gothenburg in a two-year project.

      It's called Drive Me, a joint initiative between the manufacturer and various local agencies. It's backed by the national government and designed to discover the benefits to society of autonomous driving. Positioning country and company as pioneers in the subject won't hurt either.

      For now, five prototype Volvos have been let loose as the technology is perfected ahead of the January 2017 launch.



      So, Google is perfectly in tune with the zeitgeist.

    4. Re:How is it a mistake? by s.petry · · Score: 1

      Mostly this, but there is a slightly alternative view that these products are being touted as "ready" but are not. This is the media's fault, and Google shares the blame since they don't make corrections. Google self driving cars are something we will all see someday, but it's not quite there yet. They still don't do well in poor weather, so the media claiming "it's here today" is premature. It's in progress, but not "ready".

      Google glass is something else entirely. The concept is good and technology is fine, but we don't have the laws in place to use them safely in public. These devices bring up privacy and security concerns that we have yet to either deal with or come to terms with (and the latter may never happen).

      --

      -The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.

    5. Re:How is it a mistake? by Jason+Levine · · Score: 2

      Because to Forbes, anything that isn't in strict pursuit of short term profits is a mistake. Google is sacrificing some short term profits by spending money on these projects. Forbes sees that as a problem, but Google sees the opportunity. The projects might crash and burn, but even if they do Google can learn from the technology developed and apply it elsewhere. Google-Five-Years-From-Now could benefit because Google-Now worked on self-driving cars even if Google-Five-Years-From-Now isn't selling self-driving cars.

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    6. Re:How is it a mistake? by Marginal+Coward · · Score: 2

      Yes, I was thinking the same thing. "It's a mistake to not make immediate profit..." and...they are in it for long term profits. One of the reasons why Google was so successful is that they didn't monetize Google search until they had improved it until almost everyone was using it.

      I used to think that too, but in Googled: The End of the World As We Know It, the author presents the story along the lines of "it took them a really long time to figure out how to monitize search."

      There might be a common thread between the early days of Google and their current forays into cutting-edge technologies without a proven market, like driverless cars. They seem to have an "if you build it, they will come" mentality. Basically, if they see a technology coming in the future, they jump on it and figure out how to make money on it later. This may partly be rich guys indulging themselves in creating cool new toys, but if their vision is right at least part of the time and they execute well, they'll make money in the long run. Just as they did in search.

    7. Re:How is it a mistake? by minstrelmike · · Score: 1

      I think their main problem is that they aren't looking for problems non-techie individuals have, therefore they are never going to hit to big market again.
      However, the strategy of building a shitload of products and seeing what sticks is probably as good as focusing on actual problems real people have.

      Perhaps instead of having the ubergeeks at google spend 20% of their time working on stuff that interests them, google would be better off having 20% of their workforce be regular, average (and below-average) joes, and janes, talking about their every day problems. Android didn't solve a problem; it's just free which is 1) why it is on 80% of phones world-wide and 2) why Apple makes 80% of the mobile app money. Android solved a problem for nerds; Apple solved a problem for consumers.

    8. Re:How is it a mistake? by bondsbw · · Score: 1

      "It's a mistake to not make immediate profit..."

      Yep, that's the Wall Street line of thinking. Don't invest in the long-term viability of a company... make a quick buck as the stock is rising and drop it like hot potato when it dips.

      Too many companies sell their souls to the devil in the form of an IPO. High frequency trading focuses on making money today and shareholders often don't care about decisions that pay off in five years or more.

      --
      All my liberal friends think I'm a conservative, all my conservative friends think I'm a liberal.
    9. Re:How is it a mistake? by Marginal+Coward · · Score: 1

      I envision a day in which driverless cars are common, and perhaps even in which driver-ful cars are illegal, at least on certain roads. The only possible mistake here is being too early. It's notable, though, that several of the mainstream auto makers (including Nissan and Volvo, IIRC) are now making the same mistake. Perhaps Forbes sees a future in which the horse-and-buggy comes back into style.

    10. Re:How is it a mistake? by edremy · · Score: 1

      I always like the articles magazines like Forbes publish about Amazon. They're tired of seeing Amazon make no profit because it plows all its income back into infrastructure- "It's time for Amazon to start providing a return for investors". Fuck that- stockholders can get stuffed. If you want dividends, buy something else. Amazon (and Google) are thinking years to decades ahead, and they'll be stronger for it long after all the companies that took Forbes' advice are dead.

      --
      "Seven Deadly Sins? I thought it was a to-do list!"
    11. Re:How is it a mistake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      another crap article. Larry Page went on record publicly saying that Android was a gamble when they bought it. Google builds for the future. It might not be a future you're into, but they are speculating on the future. I'd say they're preparing for a future they foresee or predict as inevitable. There will inevitably be autonomous cars. Everyone agrees on this. It doesn't happen by sitting around waiting for it to happen. But it happens. Sooner or later, a company delivers and Google have the bags of money and the will to do that.

    12. Re:How is it a mistake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Android didn't solve a problem; it's just free which is 1) why it is on 80% of phones world-wide and 2) why Apple makes 80% of the mobile app money. Android solved a problem for nerds; Apple solved a problem for consumers.

      Google doesn't give a shit about mobile app money. The problem Android solved was "How can we keep making shiploads of ad money off of search if people start searching from phones or tablets instead of PCs?"

      How naive of you to think Apple gives a shit about solving problems for consumers. Their portable music player business was in danger of being decimated by phones, so they added phone capability to their portable music player.

  7. I think there is a world market for maybe ... by Guillermito · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ... five computers.

    1. Re:I think there is a world market for maybe ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think there is a world market for maybe five tables. REALLY big tablets.

    2. Re:I think there is a world market for maybe ... by houghi · · Score: 1

      Well, we have Google (including Gmail, Youtube and the rest) and Facebook. That is two already. What people call computers are basically terminals in the way they are used.

      --
      Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
  8. Google's Outsourced Marketing Department by Qzukk · · Score: 3, Funny

    that will only travel on certain routes at slower speeds and with less options

    Hey! That sounds like my daily commute! Thanks Forbes dude, you've sold me!

    --
    If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
  9. I would buy a driverless car by aaaaaaargh! · · Score: 1

    ... used, once enough other people have played the guinea pig.

  10. And people like Gene keep making the same mistake by 0xdeadbeef · · Score: 1

    They believe Google exists to make money. No, Google exists to make cool things. The money is a means to an end.

  11. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  12. Gene Marks is VERY dumb by TheDarkMaster · · Score: 4, Insightful

    How this guy writes to Forbes? He is either incredibly naive or stupid to think that Google shound have to stop having ideas just because some of them are not paying off instantly as the new generation of investors demands.

    --
    Religion: The greatest weapon of mass destruction of all time
    1. Re:Gene Marks is VERY dumb by Njorthbiatr · · Score: 1

      Here's the things, these investors, me being one of them, aren't dumb and don't demand instant pay-offs. In fact, people who play the market expecting instant pay-offs are more than likely about to get burned.

    2. Re:Gene Marks is VERY dumb by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How this guy writes to Forbes? He is either incredibly naive or stupid

      Looks like you answered your own question.

    3. Re:Gene Marks is VERY dumb by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He got you to read his tripe, didn't he? His job as a writer is done.

    4. Re:Gene Marks is VERY dumb by jasonla · · Score: 1

      It's actually far worse than just Forbes... . He writes a blog for the NYTimes (christ its tech coverage is crap), Huff Post and he is a talking head on various business shows. And some sort of conman ... er, I mean, motivational speaker. The guy makes a living talking, but not actually doing much else.

  13. The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not sure if it is an option for you, but can you take public transit?

    Someone does the driving and you can read/sleep, etc.

  14. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  15. Why is this posted here? by MikeTheGreat · · Score: 1

    C'mon - /. loves Google, and when talking to a bunch of engineers/IT/software types the last thing you want to lead with is "Your awesome idea isn't sale-able"

    My top two guesses are:
    1) This is /. click-bait: watch as we all pile on and argue with the summary!
    2) This was mass-posted to a bunch of sites by a service. Maybe not the exact same article everywhere, but someone wants people to think that Google isn't all that, and has paid someone else to post stuff promoting that view

    What does everyone else think?

    1. Re:Why is this posted here? by Jason+Levine · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I cringe whenever someone says "this is awesome but unmarketable." Part of this was from my days working for Windows Magazine when marketing called a meeting and told us "You guys have a great product. We love your writing. We just can't figure out how to sell it so we're shutting you down."

      Google being driven by the engineers thinking "here's something cool" is much preferable to Google being driven by marketing saying "this is what we can sell."

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
  16. SubjectsInCommentsAreStupid by lesincompetent · · Score: 1

    I thought it was the creeping feature removal and the preference of design over functionality.
    Just look at those huge, uninformative, intrusive and ballbusting new android 5 notifications as opposed to the perfect ones we had before.
    Mind you, i'm not totally against material design at all but at this stage i find it... "hillbillysh".

  17. World domination. by blueshift_1 · · Score: 1

    What it comes down to is that google has incredibly profitable aspects of their company that allow them to fund the more futurescape products. Certainly there are patents and other fringe economical benefits to these. But in the end, every technological revolution starts small. Lots of prototypes and mistakes untile the groundwork is layed for others to build on. In the past this has been hobbyists and garage tinkerers. Google is creating this same environment with real money and time thrown to help speed up the whole system. In the end, they are trying to certainly guide the future on their terms but also, they are trying to do the rest of us a freaking service by getting the awesome stuff here sooner. Say what you will about google's motives, but I do feel like they are trying to improve the world while they dominate it.

  18. Money overflow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That's what happens when your company generates more cash than they know what to do with. Instead of saving up for the winter, they blow it developing stupid shit nobody wants (Glass, Inbox, Wave, anyone?).

    They should follow the management example of AB Inbev, stick to what brings in the dough.

  19. Which car would you buy? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The driverless car, duh. But only after I'm sure it works properly. My phone GPS doesn't work properly half the time.

  20. 3rd line by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Take Google Glass — a great idea with great technology", no, STUPID idea with great technology, but the idea is stupid, handing over your entire day for life to a company that live buy selling your information, NO THANKS

    1. Re:3rd line by Eosi · · Score: 1
      I think its a great idea with great technology, just marketed wrong.

      Google glass would work wonderful as a HUD in many applications, beyond just Military. Think of a doctor/nurse who could have stats in front of their eyes rather than on a cart behind them. Take it further and have it feed real time blood flow from an active scan, for where they are looking.

      What is a Police officer, Bus driver, or other could have a camera showing whats behind the vehicle at all times, even when outside of it? How many times has a cop car been hit on the highway and the officer got lucky to survive? How about a security guard doing rounds of a building, he could get camera feeds or alarms sent to the HUD while out and about.

      So the issue is not what they did or their idea, it was marketing it for the wrong places / application

    2. Re:3rd line by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "So the issue is not what they did or their idea, it was marketing it for the wrong places / application" Wasn't that the idea, a technology for an end, wasn't their intention to make it massive?, a slight change to the idea is another idea.

    3. Re: 3rd line by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      It's easy to make suggestions like that without knowing much about the application you're suggesting. I don't know much about being a cop or bus driver, but I work in medical imaging. It happens that at a recent conference one of the pharma companies had a google glass display at their booth, as a gimmick to get people to stop by. They had an app where you could look at an MRI, test results, etc. and a Google guy to ooze enthusiasm.

      The whole thing was funny. The resolution of the glass screen was just sufficient to tell that the grey blob was an MRI of a brain. It was completely useless. Test results are purposely made very simple (patient's value, normal range) and there's no reason to have them floating before your eyes. The difference in distance and focus between the screen and everything behind it was distracting and headache inducing. The google guy had to be enthusiastic, or course, but everybody who was more than a sales drone admitted it was mostly a way to get people to come to the booth. Like the free coffee.

      Some of those problems could be fixed. When glass is a contact lens it will have lots of applications. Even as a high res HUD it might find some, perhaps mechanics, possibly surgeons, when they get good enough. Probably not routine medicine (although tablets and smartphones are quite handy there).

    4. Re: 3rd line by Eosi · · Score: 1

      Having worked in IT at many organizations, including 5 years at a Medical company, connected to a University, I had to deal with "beta testing" new ideas for our doctors by the Uni people all the time. While the MRI app clearly would not work, there are many ideas that would and have been tried before. Back then someone tried to use the Apache HUD tech to give a vitals display to the nurse. (Hence my suggestion). Not sure that there is one "killer app" for this tech yet, though similar tech has been used for how long in the Military?

    5. Re:3rd line by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Technical designs and ideas of the developers versus what the Marketing people present it as are two different things. How many times have we seen marketing over or under state something that the developers did not intend?

  21. Not mistakes when you're accumulating patents... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Down the road those patents will be bringing in money from companies wanting to sell to consumers willing to buy products based on the effort put in by Google now.

  22. I'll take a driverless car now, if by BLToday · · Score: 1

    I'll take a driverless car now, if the law changes and allow me to sleep during the drive.

  23. driverless cars aren't safe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    700,000 miles isn't enough to prove the cars are viable and safe. There needs to be much more thorough testing over several decades before we can even remotely consider them for widespread use on the road.

    1. Re:driverless cars aren't safe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why decades?

    2. Re:driverless cars aren't safe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My guess, not having driverless cars is key to them making their money. So move the goalpost every time something makes a incremental change in tech that could eventually lead them to them being obsolete, if they can do that for 40-50 years then they retire and cease giving a fuck, but until that time, nothing will ever be good enough, because good enough to us means obsolescence to them.

    3. Re:driverless cars aren't safe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...what?

      I was asking why the OP thinks that testing driverless cars has to take "decades" in order for them to be safe.

  24. Why would I buy one? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why would I buy one when I can hail one via an online service whenever I need one? I don't actually want a car, I want convenient, affordable, private on-demand transportation.

    Uber is the customer for driverless cars, not you and I.

  25. disruptive technology always starts out inferior by Wycliffe · · Score: 1

    Disruptive technology always starts out inferior if measured using traditional metrics in that area.
    Why would someone want an oily, messy car that breaks down when you can have a carriage pulled
    by a nice, reliable horse? The driverless car will probably first hit early adopters and niches.
    One niche I expect to see it first is the RV market. Even if it could only drive interstates, that would
    be a major selling point for an RV. Once all the kinks are worked out and it takes off, it's too late
    for established players to play catch up at that point and anyone who was waiting on the sidelines is
    going to be left in the dust.

  26. so they should just copy instead? by whistlingtony · · Score: 1

    So... This guy things that you can keep a company going just copying the other guy forever?

    Funny thing is, when HUDs or driveable cars become popular, google will have the market cornered, good products that have been tested, and engineers that are experienced with the tech.

    It's not enough to wait and see what the new thing is, then move into it. You have to invent the new thing. Then you ARE it. Everyone else is catching up to YOU.

    You won't, and can't, get it right all the time. The alternative is to just play catch up all the time.

    Gene Marks is an idiot...

    1. Re: so they should just copy instead? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If they don't Sony the licensing Google could have everyone using their ip.

  27. Re:Not mistakes when you're accumulating patents.. by rodrigoandrade · · Score: 1

    Wrong.

    Down the road, government steps in screaming MONOPOLY and breaks Google up into smaller companies, separating its money-making ad business and leaving the rest of the company to starve.

  28. Lots of people.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ..Would buy a driver-less car. I had to give up my license a few years back because of lack of peripheral vision and would jump at the chance of having a car that would get me on the road legally again. There must be millions of people over the world who don't qualify for a license on physical ability.

    Then there's my neighbour's wife who can drive but isn't confident on new routes or busy roads, I imagine she'd welcome a car that could drive itself.

    Then they're people who rather not waste their commute time each day doing nothing but staring at a road, but could instead read a book or do some work on a laptop.

    Or drinkers..

    1. Re:Lots of people.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For those people in a particular situations, their disability benefits may be discontinued if driverless cars become normative.

  29. For driverless cars to work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... central control ...
    So, all we have to do is let the federal government decide where we live, work, and go, and everything will be perfect? Right.

  30. Idiot Alert x2 by djbckr · · Score: 4, Insightful

    First, the author of the article. Only an idiot would think normal consumers would actually buy this car. It's going to be pay-by-ride, almost like a taxi but without a driver.

    Second, HughPickens, who thinks people actually like what he has to say - and repeats the idiot author - which makes him just as much of an idiot.

    Please, for the love of $DEITY, go away

    1. Re:Idiot Alert x2 by taustin · · Score: 1

      Well, at least it wasn't Bennett Hasselton.

    2. Re:Idiot Alert x2 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am a $DEITY and I approve this message.

    3. Re:Idiot Alert x2 by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Only an idiot would think normal consumers would actually buy this car.

      I would buy it. It would have to actually work, though.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    4. Re:Idiot Alert x2 by Matheus · · Score: 1

      I actually thought it was him when I was reading the summary... then I realized it wasn't long enough.

  31. Google takes the long view by mrflash818 · · Score: 1

    Google takes the long view.

    They do not seem to worry about neato flashy quick-to-market stuff.

    They seem to take the long view. It is a good sign. And likely a good long-term investment, and I do not just mean stock price.

    --
    Uh, Linux geek since 1999.
  32. Google X by merdaccia · · Score: 1

    The other comments have mentioned that this is click-bait, and since it doesn't even mention Google X, it's not worth the electrons it's printed on.

    But since some /.ers might have fun reading about Google X, I figured I'd post the Wikipedia article.

    --

    *blinking cursor*

  33. One mistake the article made... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

    Google is doing research and development (R&D) into technologies that don't have established markets yet. Wall Street, however, has a short-term focus on generating profits at the expense of a long-term R&D program. Most corporations no longer have R&D budgets to build out the future.

  34. I found the propaganda by Iamthecheese · · Score: 1

    For the driverless car system to truly work as desired, there would need to be more centralized control over our entire transportation system, from the roads and highways to the cars we're allowed to use, the speed we're allowed to travel and the places we're allowed to go

    In what universe is this true? While central control may turn out to optimize driving in a helpful manner there are myriad benefits to driverless cars that have nothing to do with transportation systems as a whole.

    --
    If video games influenced behavior the Pac Man generation would be eating pills and running away from their problems.
  35. Seconded. by khasim · · Score: 2, Insightful

    From the summary:

    For driverless cars to work, to decrease congestion, increase safety, reduce lawsuits and lower our insurance premiums everyone would have to be driving one.

    Bullshit. Just having the cameras showing that it was the other guy's fault when he hit you should be enough to reduce your premiums. And reduce lawsuits as the insurance companies learn how much video is available.

    Congestion will depend upon the specific situation. But since you won't have to focus on it, will it matter as much? And I would expect that the car would call home for the most expeditious route available to it. Accident 1 mile ahead, get off highway at this exit, take these streets, get back on highway after accident ... automatically.

  36. Why more $$ by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Think about today's car and all the engineering that goes into keeping a person safe from a 200kg engine sitting about 1/2 a meter away from passengers, assuming direct drive electric motors at the wheels, smaller footprint. I think it may be on par or $$ than todays gas guzzling carbon spewing dinosaurs.

    If my commute goes from 30 mins to hour why would I care, I can spend that time replying to email, video conferencing, etc etc, I have now integrated my commute into my time spent on the job, I have actually shortened my workday by including my commute (did you think about that ?)

    Driverless vehicles would in a few years become a commodity that you simply schedule as a service, not outright own ....

  37. Click Bait by clinko · · Score: 1

    Headline: Google is making a mistake

    Paragraph 1: Google is making a mistake
    Paragraph 2: Google is not making a big mistake
    Paragraph 3: Google can make mistakes
    Paragraph 4: Google isn't making a mistake

    Page 2; 1 Sentence: Don't make mistakes yourself!

  38. Doesn't even need new battery tech! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    They just need to find a way to run a charge wire from the ear down to the arm/back/fannypack where a larger battery can be stored. Added bonus, if the glass itself is kept charged you can hotswap the big battery whenever you need, meaning 24/7 usage with day-long runtime is possible.

    The fact that they haven't even attempted to push the idea publicly is sad. You could basically take it one step further than the currently available charge packs and make it a 'battery of things' to handle charging for all your personal area networking needs.

    1. Re:Doesn't even need new battery tech! by dreamchaser · · Score: 1

      Right, because the average consumer wants to look even dorkier than having glasses with an obvious camera on them. They definitely want one with a cable running down to a fanny pack battery.

    2. Re:Doesn't even need new battery tech! by Kierthos · · Score: 1

      Exactly. Clearly the external battery needs to fit in a pocket protector.

      --
      Mr. Hu is not a ninja.
    3. Re:Doesn't even need new battery tech! by ColdWetDog · · Score: 1

      Gargoyles.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    4. Re:Doesn't even need new battery tech! by meta-monkey · · Score: 1

      So, Apple products succeed because Apple knows how to make technology cool and fashionable where Google does not. And your idea to fix that is for Google to market glasses and fanny packs.

      Oh man, and you know what would be really cool?! People are always dropping their phones out of their pants pockets. Maybe if they kept them in their shirt pockets, with a case and a charging station they'd be safer. You could also keep a stylus there. Maybe a regular pen, too. They could call it "Google Pocket Protector."

      Oh, man! And they could get energy to recharge your gear while you walk with piezoelectric generators on the bottom of your shoes! The heels would have to be a little bigger. Kind of like orthopedic shoes.

      Tech is fashionable for real. Hit the club with your google glasses, fanny pack, pocket protector and "special" shoes and you'll be slayin' bitches! Swimmin' in pussy hell ya!

      --
      We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
    5. Re:Doesn't even need new battery tech! by danomac · · Score: 1

      Next innovation: The Google Glass Helmet! Battery problem solved, just wrap your whole head with batteries!

  39. Got their start flying under the radar? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They're not flying under the radar now.

    I have no doubt that driverless cars and google glass-like tech will be commonplace some day. But by not flying under the radar anyone who thinks they have a better way knows exactly how high (or low) the bar is to come out with something better.

    And I don't begrudge the fact that in the mean time they are pushing the envelope. That's a good thing all by itself. Well, 'til the money runs out. Don't kid yourself. Microsoft flew high for a long time, but they stumbled. Google will too – some day.

  40. The One Mistake Slashdot Keeps Making by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    They keep posting bullshit by HughPickens.com, and that other guy, what's his name?

    This article is a load of crap. The reasons are too obvious to waste time enumerating here.

  41. More centralised control by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How about... engineer the thing so it does not require more of that "centralised control" thing? How about truly peer-to-peer control for cars? Because, to me centralised control smells of a cop-out, a failure of engineering. Yes, notoriously anti-authoritarian developer people keep on coming up with hierarchies in things they make, but really now, you can not always bank having built the system. Other people need to use it too and among them will be anti-authoritarian types like yourself. So... anytime someone even mentions a centralisation idea, go back to the drawing board, eh.

    1. Re:More centralised control by brxndxn · · Score: 1

      I have to agree with this sentiment. As an automation programmer, I integrate new technology into existing systems all the time. No matter how old something is, there is usually an interface or way to make it communicate and work seamlessly with newer components. I'm sick of every goddamn writer saying generalized idiocy to the effect of 'we need more government for everything.' If there are enough 'sensors' on existing roads for humans to make good driving decisions, then there are enough sensors on existing roads for machines to be programmed to make the same decisions.

      --
      --- We need more Ron Paul!
    2. Re:More centralised control by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If driving is easy for a person, it's easy for a machine

      You sound like the exact opposite of an automation programmer. Is it your first day on the job?

  42. Sell them to the Police. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There's a huge market due to Ferguson, so roll with it, make them usable for LE purposes. I don't really approve of it, privacy-wise, but it would both increase uptake to the point where new models would be viable, as well as helping to solve the whole 'Police need body cameras' crap, while actually making them useful (push apbs, suspect drawings/photos/etc to the glass, which can discreetly update the officer without it being visible to bystanders.)

    It's a win all around, except for privacy, which quit frankly if they'd just get rid of decency laws so we could all strut around nude, wouldn't really be a problem anymore! Might also help with the obesity epidemic. If everybody is seeing firsthand what it's doing to people, they might start thinking twice about their own dietary consumption.

  43. Laughably wrong. by LightningBolt! · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Google glass may be a failure because it may never be socially acceptable.

    But in 10 years, every new car sold in the US, including the lowest-end Fiesta, will have options for some degree of automated driving. At the very least, there will be a driverless highway mode.

    This is happening. And it's happening quickly.

    --
    Old people fall. Young people spring. Rich people summer and winter.
    1. Re:Laughably wrong. by Strider- · · Score: 1

      But in 10 years, every new car sold in the US, including the lowest-end Fiesta, will have options for some degree of automated driving. At the very least, there will be a driverless highway mode.

      Why does everyone want to not drive? I find driving to be a particularly enjoyable task, hell I don't even mind being stuck in traffic as long as I have NPR/CBC or decent podcasts to listen to.

      --
      ...si hoc legere nimium eruditionis habes...
    2. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Everyone wants EVERYONE ELSE to not be able to drive.

      Remove humans from the process and driving will instantly be safer and faster.

      The problem is that it's not a particularly easy task to automate with computers, especially if you don't control the conditions (custom roads or milestones, the weather, uncontrolled cars, pedestrians or animals). Once automation becomes Good Enough the biggest opposition (after techno-panic and general societal resistance to change) will probably come from insurance companies, since their primary buyers of auto insurance will no longer need to own a car, much less drive themselves.

    3. Re:Laughably wrong. by misexistentialist · · Score: 1

      You can have a driving simulator installed, most people will be playing Grand Theft Auto mode, but you can experience the peace of sitting in a traffic jam as your car drives you to work non-stop at 100mph

    4. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why does everyone not want to ride a horse? Probably because people get used to what they had growing up and think any new way of doing things is worse even when the evidence suggests it is not. The vast majority of driving people do is not for pleasure. Automating all that driving will provide benefits to everyone's standard of living through environmental improvements, transportation efficiency and cost, and myriad other ways.

    5. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why does everyone want to not drive? I find driving to be a particularly enjoyable task, hell I don't even mind being stuck in traffic as long as I have NPR/CBC or decent podcasts to listen to.

      It takes human stupidity out of the equation that is why.

      Imagine where you would not need to worry if that car quickly coming up behind you is drunk, fell asleep or went into a diabetic coma.
      You would also not need to worry about idiots who could not pass a driving test to save their life cutting off 4 lanes of traffic to get their exit.
      Then there is also the level of stupidity where one is driving the wrong direction on a multiple lane highway (the "do not enter" and "wrong way" signs are apparently meaningless to them).

      I like driving as well, but it would be nice to have a self-driving mode for when one is getting exponentially more tired and the next rest stop keeps staying more than a dozen miles away.

    6. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why does everyone want to not drive? I find driving to be a particularly enjoyable task, hell I don't even mind being stuck in traffic as long as I have NPR/CBC or decent podcasts to listen to.

      If you have to listen to something else while driving, then you don't find driving that enjoyable.

    7. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most of slashdot is intelligent and finds driving to be tedious, like a TV advertising you seen 1000x already but say it's mandatory viewing (no skipping or fast forward) to get what you want at the end. You have to sit by with the remote just in case the volume spikes to an unacceptable level or to change the channel quickly in case they show gratuitous sexuality with little Timmy watching.

      In 300 years, it's like asking "Hey! Why does everyone take the teleporter and not the hovercar? I like the scenery and a little bit of walking and not being zapped right there.". For most people, it's not about the trip but the destination, most of the time.

    8. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why does everyone want to not drive?

      Because 30,000-40,000 people die doing it every year. Because you are operating a vehicle that you paid a lot of money for (even a cheap car is really a lot of money), but is in a constant state of depreciation despite your loan, around people who are really oblivious to their safety and the safety of those around them. Because you, and possibly a family, are in that same liability on wheels around those same people that don't understand basic things like: planning which lane they need to be in ahead of time, driving according to the road conditions not the speed limit, momentum, the condition of their tires / brakes, how fatigue affects their judgement and reaction time, situational awareness - what it is and how to maintain it, their own limitations as a human, the implications of buying a car with 500 horse power, etc. etc. etc. Because, in order to actually drive safely, you have to understand everything listed there (and more) AND operate under the assumption that no one else does. Because doing anything else (like listening to the radio) makes it less safe, leading to you making judgement calls and others making worse judgement calls than you.

      It's day in and day out stress if you are doing it correctly, compounded by the day in and day out stress of working and life in general. Eliminating a source of stress is a good thing.

    9. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All of that said, I am also a pilot which has all of the danger and stress of driving, and more. However, I do that on my own terms. I'm almost never trying to just get somewhere to get something done; it's not just a means to an end. Under those conditions, the focus and stress is more zen and every flight is a chance to work on improving skills.

      The pilots that do not get to fly on their own terms, the bus / truck drivers with wings, rely on automation to reduce workload, and increase awareness and safety in more diverse flight environments...they basically operate partially self-flying airplanes. Most airliners can even land themselves on certain types of instrument approaches. And, these nice automation toys do not require every airplane in the sky to have the same toys to make things safer as the TFS claims about cars. We should have the same kind of automation toys in cars.

    10. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not so much a matter of not wanting to drive as a matter of convenience. I'd much rather sleep during my 1h30 commute starting at 6 am rather than drive like a zombie for all that time.

    11. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Commuting is a boring but strenuous task for me.
      Traffic density keeps going up, you have to be alert on boring routes.

      In the end with mundane driving not the task of driving is enjoyable, but the freedom of mobility. If you can have the mobility without the tedium of actually driving yourself, that would be perfect to a lot of people, including me.

      Fun in driving would be driving on a race or rally track, perhaps off-roading on your own private land, if you have sufficiently large land.
      Every days driving on public roads is not the driving you are looking for, at least to me.

    12. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Google glass may be a failure because it may never be socially acceptable.

      But in 10 years, every new car sold in the US, including the lowest-end Fiesta, will have options for some degree of automated driving. At the very least, there will be a driverless highway mode.

      This is happening. And it's happening quickly.

      You could buy a Fiesta with driverless technology 5 years ago. Most cars, in fact, have self-parking ability as an option. The automakers, who have loads of experience with actual driving, have one approach towards driverless technology. Google, with nearly none, has another approach. There are already a dozen or two cars available in the US that are capable of keeping your car in a moving queue - in other words it can do all the driving for you in a traffic jam. The existing automakers and their suppliers are building driverless technology capable of reducing or eliminating the most annoying parts of driving. Google is trying to eliminate driving altogether.

    13. Re:Laughably wrong. by 31415926535897 · · Score: 2

      Why does everyone want to not drive? I find driving to be a particularly enjoyable task, hell I don't even mind being stuck in traffic as long as I have NPR/CBC or decent podcasts to listen to.

      For me, at least, driving is exhausting. I'm driving a large kinetic weapon bent on self destruction, so I take the responsibility very seriously*. I find myself as tired at the end of a day of driving as if I had been working in the yard the whole time.

      If I could instead relax and read a book like I were on a train, I'd take that in a heartbeat.

      *I've never been in an accident in my 18 years of driving--excepting a fender bender in a parking lot as the other party decided to back into my stationary car out of their parking spot.

    14. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because driving means putting your life in your hands when you might be bored to tears, and so many lives could be saved by automated driving systems. Imagine the long trip where someone doesn't fall asleep behind the wheel. Or the drunk driver who crawls into the back and falls asleep and wakes up at home. This is a much better world than the one in which we take a calculated risk every day - a risk that is really very scary given what we get for it.

      Unless you live in Norway. I suspect they might have driverless cars there already. Or maybe it's too cold to drive in the winter.

    15. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Then you are not in a megacity. I am. I sold my car because:

      1) I don't need it

      2) Holy fuck I met 2000 other drivers a day and with each of them there is a tiny chance something bad happens because I or they are not careful. That adds up (literally).

      3) People steal cars.

      If the self-driving actually works better than that (I think after a long time it will), that's a win. For example it could just drive itself home into the garage.

      Other than that, I like driving cars and motorcycles myself. In a city? No.

    16. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes it will happen, but the car companies have been working on this for decades. They will bring their own solutions to market, and make money tracking their buyers... not letting Google do it.

    17. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Google glass may be a failure because it may never be socially acceptable.

      But in 10 years, every new car sold in the US, including the lowest-end Fiesta, will have options for some degree of automated driving. At the very least, there will be a driverless highway mode.

      This is happening. And it's happening quickly.

      A lot of people don't seem to realize this. It's not going to be "the new 2024 models are in, they now have driverless mode". Cruise control. Parking assist. Collision avoidance. Lane keeping. It has been coming, bit-by-bit, and at an accelerating pace.

    18. Re:Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why does everyone want to not drive? I find driving to be a particularly enjoyable task, hell I don't even mind being stuck in traffic as long as I have NPR/CBC or decent podcasts to listen to.

      If you have to listen to something else while driving, then you don't find driving that enjoyable.

      I thought Enzo Ferrari declined to put in a radio, saying the music of the engine should be enough, but I can't google up any reference to it.

    19. Re:Laughably wrong. by HoldenCaulfield · · Score: 1

      The incentive for me is I can do other things. When I drive, I focus on driving and the radio/podcast/audio book. If someone, or something, else drives, I could read a real book, nap, do email, play games, whatever.

      As others have mentioned, it also greatly reduces a huge point of failure in the whole driving thing . . . driver fatigue, human error, etc. No more opening the window in freezing temperatures and sipping on the 5th cup of gas station coffee to make it to your parents for the holiday . . .

    20. Re:Laughably wrong. by Graydyn+Young · · Score: 1

      Google may be able to get around the social acceptance problem of Glass. Last I heard, when Glass gets a public release it will be built into a normal looking pair of glasses. The idea being that people around you won't be able to tell that you're wearing it. Then nobody has to be asked "What is that on your face?" 400 times a day, and nobody gets punched by McDonald's employees.

    21. Re: Laughably wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Driving sure is enjoyable, when not on an expressway, which is mindlessly boring and not a commute which I have taken hundreds of times.

  44. Is the summary the troll this time? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I didn't read the article, as that is against the rules, but this looks like bait to me.

  45. the very country...against government regulations by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    > This, in the very country where the majority of the population fights against government regulations, red tape and bureaucracy.

    Yeah, because Google is well known for its products, which have always been, and will always be, marketed exclusively in the US. I'm sure Google would be OK with selling to the other 6.5 billion people first.

    (Oh, and the reason "no one is buying Google Glass" is mentioned in the very article linked to with these very words: It's not on sale yet.)

  46. Ahead of the Curve by kwiecmmm · · Score: 1

    But rest assured – Google knows this. They’re not looking for short term profits. They’re not even looking for profits in the next few years. The dreamers behind Google, like the dreamers at Tesla and Virgin Galactic are people who are looking decades ahead.

    The original Forbes article states this in the end, the poster either didn't bother to read that far or just didn't think this was relevant. Most of the article does crap on Google for this stuff, but at the end the guy realizes that this is a long term goal which Google is trying to get ahead on. So this was most likely written as click bait that bad mouths Google, but the actual author knows that Google is playing a long term game here.

    Welcome to current journalism, lets bad mouth something we think is intelligent, to get people to click on a link. But at the very end we will write up a few sentences saying why this will probably pay off in the long run.

  47. Disney by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Didn't Disney do this in the 1960's? They had the home of the future, the city of the future, blah blah of the future, and so on. He used his cartoon profits to fund all of this. Is Disney the futuristic tech company giant? Is Google doing anything different?

    I think it is nearly identical, with the exception that some of Google's stuff can be bought (Google glass)

  48. Car Sharing! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In my opinion car sharing is the killer application for driverless cars. With such cars you would no longer go/cycle or use public transport to get to the nearest station or the one which has a larger car for transporting purposes. This will improve the acceptance of car sharing a lot, at least in european cities where you dont really need an own car every day.

    1. Re:Car Sharing! by minstrelmike · · Score: 1

      car-sharing!?! That's like uberUber.
      sounds good to a slashdotter. But I remember seeing lots of VCRs flashing 12:00 constantly in the 80s. I don't think tech for the masses is as ez or intuitive as we like to pretend.

  49. ways to start by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    For Google glass they need the killer application to go with it. Police would benefit. Have face recognition and perhaps blind spot cameras for them.
    For the Google car, put them in seniors villages. Replace the golf carts and let them get around a bit more.
    Then they can add military bases. People who usually have drivers, just have a car.

  50. And for the people who can't drive by PeterM+from+Berkeley · · Score: 1

    We have ever increasing armies of people who should not drive any longer, namely, the partly-disabled elderly.

    Do they want to be dependent upon deliveries of food and drivers to go anywhere? Self-driving cars give this demographic independence, and it is a demographic that is growing. And it is a demographic that has THE MOST MONEY. (Yes, old people are the richest demographic in the USA now.)

    Would YOU rather get a $60k car and be independent or not be able to go anywhere without a benefactor?

    --PeterM

    1. Re:And for the people who can't drive by gnasher719 · · Score: 1

      We have ever increasing armies of people who should not drive any longer, namely, the partly-disabled elderly.

      Maybe we can start by sorting out a much more dangerous group, kids driving cars that they can't handle, who think they are invincible, and who think speeding in dangerous situations is a sign of being a good driver.

    2. Re:And for the people who can't drive by dbc · · Score: 1

      Absolutely. My blind friend could live farther than walking distance from his job. My blind uncle could actually visit his friends.

      But heck, a lot of us could actually get some work done on the commute to/from work.

    3. Re:And for the people who can't drive by reikae · · Score: 1

      (Yes, old people are the richest demographic in the USA now.)

      I'm surprised that this hasn't always been the case, as you seem to imply. Is this because average lifespans have gone up, and there just weren't enough old (over 70 I presume) people alive 100 years ago or so?

    4. Re:And for the people who can't drive by PeterM+from+Berkeley · · Score: 1

      I haven't made a detailed study of the topic, if you really want to know you should research it.

      However, my understanding is that prior to the creation of Social Security, the aged and infirm were often living in horrible conditions because they were no longer able to make income to take care of themselves and hadn't saved sufficiently to support themselves in old age.

      Hence the establishment of Social Security, to alleviate this suffering. Most Americans, even today, save only a small fraction (if any) of their income for a "rainy day". When the paychecks stop coming, without Social Security, their situation gets quite dire.

      However, with Social Security and better health care, fewer kids, and other Government mandated savings programs, the "old" demographic has become the richest, by and large, in the USA.

      Personally I think it is time to stem the tide of wealth transfer from the now-poorer, younger demographics to the richest demographic (robbing from the poor to give to the rich) by raising the retirement age, ending the wage cap on social security tax, making the benefits taxable above a certain income threshold, and lowering the social security tax on the folks who are still working.

      I don't think it makes much sense to have a Government program to make the most rich even richer at the expense of the poorer.

      As for the social security recipients who will cry about this, well, take some responsbility. YOU voted in the Governments who spent the social security surplus into broader Government debt, now YOU can live with reduced benefits.

      --PeterM

    5. Re:And for the people who can't drive by dbc · · Score: 1

      Roger Moore, Roger Moore,
      Riding through the land....

  51. Re:Not mistakes when you're accumulating patents.. by spire3661 · · Score: 1

    The government doesn't get to just scream 'monopoly'. Google doesnt have a monopoly, at least not anywhere the historic ones of Standard Oil, ATT, and Microsoft.

    --
    Good-bye
  52. driverless cars for drunk drivers by blackest_k · · Score: 1

    If the car is really driverless, then there are people who might buy them (subject to laws of course)

    Steven Hawking might enjoy the freedom of a driverless car, or any other person with some disability, legally blind and able to get to work with one.

    What about people with driving bans could they have one?

    Would anyone be interested in one for a night out and not to worry about drink driving. There's a thought.

    Back in the 40's and earlier there was a low tech equivalent the Horse and Cart the horse knew his job and would go about his rounds, and even stop at the pub as a matter of course. The driver had very little to do with the driving.

  53. The Driverless Car - Any Day of the Week by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    An anime I watched recently had replaced buses with driverless vehicles. I think this idea could work. A bunch of 2 and 4 seat driverless vehicles with mapped out transit points. You give it an address and the vehicle takes you there and then goes on to the closest transit point. You would need a central control which would be able to tell how many vehicles were at a transit point so that it could move a vehicle from an overpopulated transit point there if one was not present. Combine this with electric vehicles and you have a winner.

  54. driverless car not really a waste by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Google's drone projects are going to use some of the technology in its self-driving cars.

  55. I would buy the car by kingnite9915 · · Score: 2

    I have a 45 minute drive, interstate 90% of the way. I would love to by the driver less car.

  56. Lose the agenda by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    From the summary:

    For the driverless car system to truly work as desired, there would need to be more centralized control over our entire transportation system, from the roads and highways to the cars we're allowed to use, the speed we're allowed to travel and the places we're allowed to go.

    This is a red herring. The submitter is proposing an extreme solution to a non-problem. Driverless technology has already adapted to the current system, and Google has already proven that it can work within the current system. Google's cars know what the speed limit is, they know where they're "allowed to go" (what is this, kindergarden?), and they don't require a borg-like homogeneity. And the technology isn't even mature yet! Clearly, there is no need to overhaul the current system. Incremental changes, as necessary, will do just fine -- just like they always have. But wait...

    in the very country where the majority of the population fights against government regulations, red tape and bureaucracy

    Aha. Here the submitter finally reveals his agenda. He's an authoritarian who favors top-down, centralized political control. Judging by his desire to head down this tangent, he was focused more on spreading his ideals than discussing actual driverless technology -- before he even sat down to write the summary.

  57. Author is wrong by gurps_npc · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Their is a HUGE market for driver-less cars today. Granted we do need to work out the laws and insurance.

    But those things always come after the product is invented, not before.

    People that would love to buy a driverless car for 60 thousand right RIGHT THIS MINUTE, include:

    1) Any wealthy person whose kid got into an accident that they swear they were not drinking.

    2) Any one whose parents are 70+ and doesn't see quite as well as they used to, but they still are active and need a car to get around.

    3) Every single person that owns a taxi service that they have to pay a driver 30K a year and is seeing Uber etc. still their business.

    4) Every single city that has bus drivers or garbage trucks,

    Granted, their may also be union concerns when it comes to bus drivers/garbage truck drivers.

    But the market is there, it already exists. It is up to us humans to solve the purely social problems caused by the legal system, the insurance industry, and unions.

    --
    excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
    1. Re:Author is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      4) Every single city that has bus drivers or garbage trucks,

      Truck drivers/bus drivers are going to be the last ones automated away, because they are actually creating a lot of value. The more cargo you are hauling, the more efficient your labor. Taxi drivers will disappear much faster.

      The real waste is commuters, who use a 3000lb vehicle to move 160lbs of flesh twice per day, and let that vehicle sit idle for the remaining 22 hours. The payoff to society for automating that is worth $trillions.

    2. Re:Author is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like certain people who call liberty a "social problem" will have to look at themselves in the mirror.

    3. Re:Author is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > the insurance industry

      The insurance industry will balk at first, but then rates will plummet as claims drop by 99% as everyone switches over to driverless cars.
      The change will put personal auto insurance agents out of business, but the owners of the insurance companies will laugh all the way to the bank.

    4. Re:Author is wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Plus:

      - Anyone who can't pass a test because of physical disabilities, but is still in a well paid, or highly paid job.
      - Anyone who is taking a year (or two) off driving because of a driving conviction.

  58. Not Short Term by wisnoskij · · Score: 1

    Google is cemented in the industry, they are not going anywhere. They make profits, but they have a problem. They are not Bell, or MS, they arrived too late to have a monopoly on really anything. So they built a driverless car, and Google Glass, and in 10-20 years they still have the patent and will control the patent and technology. They do not want to come late to the game like with mobile phones and have to spend billions of dollars renting licences or buying patent portfolios.

    --
    Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
  59. Re:And people like Gene keep making the same mista by faedle · · Score: 1

    Believe me, Google (like any other corporation) exists to make money. And make it they have.

    Google also believes they can make the MOST money by focusing on the two ends: the bleeding edge AND the long tail. Search and advertising is their long tail, where they dominate the market. 8-10 years ago? Android was at their bleeding edge, and now it's part of the long tail: one more way to get eyeballs for Search and Advertising.

    Where will Driverless Car lead? I can see a fleet of self-driving cars acting as a taxi service. Get in a Google Car and tell it "I want decent Thai" and it whisks you to a sponsored location. Driverless Car is more an Über killer than anything else.

  60. I might buy a driverless car by Cro+Magnon · · Score: 2

    I like driving as well as the next guy, and for the short term I have no intention of buying a driverless car. I'm also in my mid 50s. Based on my family, I'll still be alive and kicking in 20-30 years, but that doesn't mean my eyesight and reflexes will still be up to driving in heavy traffic. Maybe the Goog-car will be ready for primetime in 2034, and by that time, I'll be in the market for it.

    --
    Slow down, cowboy! It has been 4 hours since you last posted. You must wait another few hours.
  61. exactly: cell phones by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Their problem is making new stuff that has the potential to become great,

    Worked for the iPhone. It was the coolest, slickest, neatest, most awesome broken PC that I ever saw. In most ways, the handheld market is still full of shitty products (really, I can't think of even one of them, that is still 10% as nice as an even mediocre workstation), but we all learned to adjust our expectations and accept them for the super-portable tradeoff that they are. "Shit" can be "good enough." If Apple and Samsung can pound that into our heads, then Google theoretically can too.

  62. You miss the point, it's not the cars, it's truck by Hasaf · · Score: 1

    The place where driverless vehicles is going to have an impact is not private cars. It is the trucking industry. The carriageways provide a relatively controlled roadway, ideal for driverless vehicles. If a team of "key drivers" can be put in the lead lorry of a road train of four or five lorries then the cost of trucing can be significantly reduced. the only real cost to society is the elimination of hundreds of thousands of well paid blur-collar jobs.

  63. Driverless trucks by AnotherBlackHat · · Score: 1

    Truck drivers get over $40k a year, and they don't drive 24/7.
    I'd bet a trucking company would pay a lot for a driver-less truck, even if it could only travel a few routes.

    1. Re:Driverless trucks by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They have those, they're called trains...

    2. Re:Driverless trucks by dbc · · Score: 1

      While the economic case for a driverless truck makes huge sense, speaking as someone with experience both building robots and driving heavy, articulated vehicles, I think trucks are a while off. Cars are much easier. The huge mass and articulated connection from tractor to load make a truck a much more difficult vehicle to control, with some rather catastrophic failure modes that cars just don't have.

      Large straight trucks will come first, and they have a lot of applications. For instance, mining operations, or grain wagon. A driverless grain wagon shadowing a combine until it is full, and then a driver can take over and drive it to the grain storage facility to be unloaded would be a great app, for instance.

  64. Re:Not mistakes when you're accumulating patents.. by king+neckbeard · · Score: 1

    Fortunately for Google, you can do just about anything you want with your patents, no matter how destructive your decisions, so long as you keep screaming intellectual property at the top of your lungs until they leave you alone.

    --
    This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
  65. why do basic R&D? by Goldsmith · · Score: 1

    Google (and Microsoft, and Qualcomm, and IBM, and ...) are trying to recreate the technological and commercial success that came out of places like Bell Labs. One of the big lessons learned is that you need to have some open ended development projects to allow for discovery and invention. You can't have profit-driving innovation without the profit-less starting point of invention. Someone else may make more money off of your invention, but you have to chose either the risks of stagnation or the risks of competition.

    Google's big mistake here is not working on projects without an obvious commercial payoff. Their big mistake is trying to incubate these blue sky R&D projects in the cultural and managerial environment of their profit making businesses. Everything looks and feels like a vanity project rather than serious forward looking R&D. It's a good idea to geographically separate your board and upper management from your "outside-the-box" R&D lab by a few thousand miles.

  66. whatever by epwpixieqneg1 · · Score: 1

    As long as they are making enouph money, to keep the shareholders happy, they can explore whatever thie vision and intellect feel need to acompish. If, or when, the times come that this is not enough, then either they can make the company private, when the price fall low enough, or they change the visonaries with more dry, business/money oriented people. In one way, as a privite one, the Google culture will endure, in the other one will gradually die.

  67. I'd buy a self driving car by hawguy · · Score: 1

    I'd buy a $30K self-driving car today even if it were limited to major streets if it could take care of the stop and go driving on my way to work. Even if it could only handle the freeway portion of my commute, it would give me back about an hour a day of time I could use to read, work, talk on the phone, watch TV, or even sleep.

    I don't need a self-driving car that can handle every road condition with ease, one that can only handle my commute (or most of it) in self-driving mode would be enough to get me to buy it.

    1. Re:I'd buy a self driving car by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you think about it, you should just move closer to where you work. Read/work/talk/tv/sleep... these are all tasks you can do at home. An hour a day of driving is robbing you of that right now. Put another way, this is 5-15 thousand dollars a year in lost hourly rates for your wages or leisure. If you moved and it cost you 50-150 thousand dollars extra that'd be well worth it over 10 years. Additionally every mile on the road you're driving is a risk to yourself and everyone around you. I'm hopeful that more people are realizing what a bad bargain "suburbanization" has been for our society in the last 50 years.

    2. Re:I'd buy a self driving car by hawguy · · Score: 1

      If you think about it, you should just move closer to where you work. Read/work/talk/tv/sleep... these are all tasks you can do at home. An hour a day of driving is robbing you of that right now. Put another way, this is 5-15 thousand dollars a year in lost hourly rates for your wages or leisure. If you moved and it cost you 50-150 thousand dollars extra that'd be well worth it over 10 years. Additionally every mile on the road you're driving is a risk to yourself and everyone around you. I'm hopeful that more people are realizing what a bad bargain "suburbanization" has been for our society in the last 50 years.

      Yes, well if only it were that easy, but not only can I not afford the $1M+ it would take to purchase a small condo closer to work (it's more than double my current home's price), every mile I move closer to my work is another mile farther away my wife has to travel to her job. That 50-150 thousand dollars over 10 years doesn't pay the extra $30K/year or so that I'd pay for a higher mortgage close to work. You might say that the higher mortgage is worth is since it's going into an asset that I can sell later, but that's not necessarily true in all markets and I'm not about to dump a significant portion of my savings into a downpayment on a million dollar house in the hope that real estate prices stay high by the time I'm ready to sell.

      I hardly live in suburbia, I live in a relatively high population density town (8000 people/sq mi), I live within walking distance to a downtown area with shops, restaurants, etc, everything I need for day to day life, and walking distance to a commuter train that serves the city I work in, but due to poor connections on the far end, it's faster to drive than it is to take the train and the 2 transit connections it would take to get to my workplace. It's actually faster to train+bike than it is to train+train+bus to work (and I do train+bike to work frequently), but the car is usually fastest overall, at least when there are no accidents or other freeway disruption)

      So back to my original point Read/work/talk/tv/sleep are all tasks that I could easily do on the way to work if someone else (or something else, like my car) was driving, and it's much easier to do any of them if I have one commute mode instead of having to take 3 different commute lines.

  68. Saying Google's innovation is a mistake... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is a mistake.

    Google is in the unique position to invest millions of dollars on technologies, concepts, and idea, that will never make it to the marketplace in today's world. This is their genius, their muse, their freedom. If that is a mistake, I hope they continue to make mistakes for a long time to come.

  69. Premise goes off the deep end by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    I was with the article until the part about driverless cars, where they go on and on about needing this and that and the other thing, all centralized.

    THAT would be something no-one wants, and we will never have. But Google's driverless car is very different; it's being worked on to co-exist just fine with other drivers, traffic, even pedestrians and cyclists.

    Even if only a handful were actually sold, they would still be really useful. Many people (myself included) would love to be able to work while we are heading into an office or client.

    I myself love to drive and will always have a car I can manually control. But for day to day use I would if it were possible buy a driverless car just to be more productive...

    One last thought of a scenario where the driverless car would shine - just getting to a mass transit station to head into work. The car could bring you to a station, then go home all by itself so you wouldn't have to pay to park or worry about the car being broken into. Then when you were coming back home you could call it back to the station to pick you up, or even just to the office if you ended up having to stay late at work... the convenience is huge.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Premise goes off the deep end by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      One last thought of a scenario where the driverless car would shine - just getting to a mass transit station to head into work. The car could bring you to a station, then go home all by itself so you wouldn't have to pay to park or worry about the car being broken into. Then when you were coming back home you could call it back to the station to pick you up, or even just to the office if you ended up having to stay late at work... the convenience is huge.

      That's one feature I would love to have in a car. My current commute on public transit takes from my front door step to the door step of where I work. I only have to cross the street twice to pick up two local buses and the express bus. If I move to someplace with affordable rent, I'll need a car to get to the nearest pickup point.

    2. Re:Premise goes off the deep end by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Affordable rent and "shall-issue" are mutually exclusive for a reason.

  70. Re:And people like Gene keep making the same mista by Marginal+Coward · · Score: 1

    I guess that explains why the paid so much for Nest. I'm still not sure what means that is to what end, but they spent a cool $3.2 billion for it...

  71. it is obvious, you buy legislation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I mean, you go out and buy state legislators and governors and US congressmen - it ain't expensive on the scale of google
    And you get laws passed that favor your product

    I mean, hasn't it been that way since the founding of our republic

  72. Grain Of Salt by Greyfox · · Score: 1

    Guy I never heard of thinks he can tell the company that's worth more than all the organs of every single human being in his home city how their business process sucks. Thanks, guy I never heard of! I'm sure company that's worth more than all the organs in your home city will take that to heart and start doing what you think they should be doing immediately!

    --

    I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?

  73. but is it google by cinnamon+colbert · · Score: 1

    surely you remember alta vista and the pathetic northern light (the internet in folders, extra clicks that you don't need)

    and why does google get such praise ?
    the gmail interface is screwed up ; their flagship - the search engine - is horrible (you think google is a good search engine ? are you not understanding that in the absence of competition it is hard to understadn what a good SE looks like)

  74. Re: And people like Gene keep making the same mist by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

    "The long tail" refers to the small, extreme fringe. You could say Apple has the long tail in PCs (the high end luxury market) while The wintels hold the middle.

    Google is certainly the middle of search. The long tail is represented by the various gimmick search engines. Android is also very much the middle. The long tail might be things like Firefox OS and the open handset projects, appealing to the radical open source fringe.

  75. Well, ok, but it's more- finishing what you start. by glassKarma · · Score: 1

    I think you're almost to the actual point -- they never finish what they start. You can be ahead of the curve, it just means your at the slow part of the ramp, but that doesn't mean you stop. It's a bit different, but if you think they're ahead of the curve (and I'm not sure I agree they are), they kill products because they haven't received a lot of market penetration. If with things like a lot of the software platorms they actual did more than (what I call) middle-third engineering, and did the last-third, perhaps it'd catch on more. Google Glass' issue wasn't it was so far ahead, it's just never been "correctly adjusted" to catch on yet. Despite the cool-factor there's no killer app for it. Apple does this, too, a bit far out, but they get buy in through partners and one or more killer apps for it, *including* third parties. The last bit is key, and they learned the hard way, but it's there now, even with unbelievably difficult industries like Apple Pay (which IM[Never]HO is much easier than the Record Labels must have been; bring on the Apple Pay lawsuits, too -- but as more evidence there wont be, at least not all that substantial).

  76. Google Mistake by oldmac31310 · · Score: 1

    What they need to do is to continue developing the mistake and when ready release a beta branded as 'Google Mistake'. Then quietly announce a few months later that 'Google Mistake' is being shelved indefinitely. Isn't that what they usually do?

    --
    http://www.acetonestudio.com
  77. Everyone "driving" a driverless car? by QuietLagoon · · Score: 1

    ...For driverless cars to work, to decrease congestion, increase safety, reduce lawsuits and lower our insurance premiums everyone would have to be driving one....

    For driverless cars to work, they would have to work under more than just ideal conditions. They would have to be able to, for example, navigate around potholes in the road and other stealthy road hazards that the current crop of driverless cars tend to overlook.

    .
    Have a driverless car navigate a New England winter, stop showing them running in sunny California and the western deserts.

  78. Forbes keeps misunderstanding Google by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "GoogleÃ(TM)s mistake, which it keeps making, is building great products that no one will soon buy." This indicates that Forbes fundamentally misunderstands Google.

    Forbs is a business mag. The are used to businesses with a short term view. Google takes a long term view and is much less risk averse than the businesses that Forbes is used to covering. They are trying view Google from the wrong perspective.

  79. The one you call idiot, it's me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Only an idiot would think normal consumers would actually buy this car.

    Then you are calling me an idiot? An idiot that does not want to sit in traffic, day in, day out, with nothing to but sit there and steer a car over the same road. Wasting away years of your life driving to and from work.

    Yes, only an idiot would prefer to have their own automated chauffeur drive them to work while they can relax. A chauffeur that can be attentive 100% of the time, not speeding and driving cautiously enough that I can enjoy a book, a movie or do something else. Only an idiot would like to have private 1 or 2 extra hours a day?

    If such people are idiots, then please, call me an idiot. An idiot that would buy a self-driving car yesterday.

  80. I can do other things w/ a driverless car. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    But a customer who actually needs or desires a driverless car. Someone who, given the choice of spending $30K on a car that they fully control and can go anywhere they want at any speed they want – or another, likely more expensive buggy that will only travel on certain routes at slower speeds and with less options." Which car would you buy?

    A car that gets me going wherever I want while I can do other things in the meanwhile (eg, browse the internet, read a book, sleep) is far more appealing to me. I suspect it would be far more appealing to a lot of people as well for these reasons.

    also, I live in Florida and the old people on the road are terrifying, and they are definitely in the market for something like this

  81. How do you buy google glass? by Russ1642 · · Score: 1

    Think people are just going to go search for a way to buy it? No. I haven't seen it on a store shelf anywhere, therefore it isn't for sale. I haven't seen an ad for it online therefore it isn't for sale. The reason google glass isn't selling is that IT ISN'T FOR SALE.

    1. Re:How do you buy google glass? by Graydyn+Young · · Score: 1

      Same thing with the driverless cars! This article pointed out two products that haven't even been released yet and complains that nobody is buying them.

  82. the best example by slashmydots · · Score: 1

    They forgot the best example. Nobody wanted to "buy" Google Plus and it's free. So then they pulled a "Microsoft" and tried to shove it down everyone's throat by force like Vista license sales and that failed just as miserably.

  83. One Mistake... by MagickalMyst · · Score: 1

    Google should live by its own motto - "Don't be Evil".

    --
    Political correctness is really just herd psychology pushed by insecure people who desperately seek social conformity.
  84. lolroffle. by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

    "It's Google assuming that someday someone will actually buy a driverless car," writes Marks. "Not a hobbyist or an eccentric millionaire. But a customer who actually needs or desires a driverless car. Someone who, given the choice of spending $30K on a car that they fully control and can go anywhere they want at any speed they want â" or another, likely more expensive buggy that will only travel on certain routes at slower speeds and with less options."

    Hilarity: California has told Google that the car needs controls, so guess what? The car still has controls. And for the foreseeable future, it's going to need to continue to have them. That means that the car will continue to go wherever you want. But all you need to know to prove that people will buy a limited vehicle is that 4x2 trucks are still sold. They can't go everywhere 4x4 trucks can go, but people still buy them. Why would anyone ever do that? I sure wouldn't. So nobody would, right? Snicker snort et cetera.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    1. Re:lolroffle. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We bought a 4x2 truck because we needed to haul stuff and live where the roads are all flat. Only had an issue once in 4 years, and those were on icy roads (in hill country about an hour away) that were challenging even for 4x4 trucks.

      Fuel economy and initial cost were drivers in that deal.

  85. Driverless cars have a huge market by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not sure what they are smoking... I'd buy one today. The technology will create huge opportunities for people with disabilities who currently have to rely on others to get around.

  86. Long Game by DarthVain · · Score: 1

    Firstly the summery is ridiculous for a number of reasons. One being to compare them to the same losers who look only to the next quarter and what profits they can rape. This is great for short term success and CEO bonuses, but long term is ultimately self defeating. Second, is judging Google, which is one of the biggest, most successful companies in the WORLD, and chastising them about their "mistakes".

    Here is a perfect, real example. Take "YouTube". Google bought it for a BILLION dollars. This was before all the crazy valuations, and buying spree of things barely being able to be called companies or technologies. Critics at the time, laughed and derided Google for its foolish decision. They said they would never ever make their money back. Would anyone care to valuate YouTube today? I would bet it is worth MANY times that now (you can argue if that is really realistic or not). Not only that, but it is THE dominate force, and is well on its way to making money. Has it paid for itself in cash profits yet? Likely not. However I am not so sure that it won't soon. If you recall (for those that were around), there used to be tons of search engines, and then meta search engines on top of that. Sure MS is trying to get Bing out there, and Yahoo is still sort of hanging around somehow, however Google is a VERB now, it is that ubiquitous. YouTube is pretty much also now. Gmail is for many. Google Maps is as well (Mapquest anyone?).

    Google knows to play the long game, you only new a few dominate winners. They can throw away the losers, and perhaps leverage them later if you can. They can do this easily now because of vast reserves of cash, and steady annual profit. They have so many things going on, that it only takes a few to totally dominate (mostly bc no one else is doing it, or even close to doing it), to be hugely successful.

    Anyway I think Google is doing just fine.

  87. Expertise for automated decisons from data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I think Noah is half right. In addition to recruiting and retaining talent, the driverless car requires technology for making real measurements and making decisions based on those measurements. That is the key technology that the last 50 years of exponential growth in computing power has enabled, but which has not been developed and exploited. I think the leadership at google has a better understanding of the possibilities than most others.

  88. nice clickbait subject by dickens · · Score: 1

    might as well be huffpost

  89. 2 reasons driverless car won't get you out of DUI: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    1. $ - cops like it
    2. MADD - they're bad at math & not driven (pardon pun) by logic

  90. Article is wrong. by Lumpy · · Score: 1

    The mistake they make is allowing HTC, Samsung, and carriers like AT&T O2 and Verizon to utterly vandalize Android.

    Android in it's pure form is a wonderful thing. But the handset makers and then the Carriers bend it over, have their way with it then vandalize it, ruining the whole Android experience.

    Google needs to tell them all to STOP IT.

    --
    Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    1. Re:Article is wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No need for racial slurs. Defacement.

  91. I'll buy a driverless car when... by Lab+Rat+Jason · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ... it can pull a trailer, and back it into a driveway... or back it into the water. (think launching a boat) ... it can determine when a road is flooded, and choose NOT to enter the water. ... it can "feel" how much mass it is moving (think towing a large mass and needing to increase stopping distance/safety margin) ... it can anticipate snow conditions and make judgements about routes, grades, and plow frequencies (pull over and wait for a plow) ... it can make the decision to use the oncoming lane, because the travel lane is blocked, even if there are no signs/indicators that divert traffic. ... it can drive down a dirt road. ... it can make the decision to put it in the ditch because that was the best option (think pedestrian incursion, animal incursion, etc)

    To me, driving is so much more than getting from a to b... we climb in our cars to escape the environment outside (especially in the winter), but driving is about understanding the environment outside, and making choices accordingly. I fully believe that driverless cars will eventually overcome all of these obstacles, but I'll likely be one of the last to buy, because my requirements are the highest. I don't need a car for commuting... I need a car for all the other things I do.

    --
    Which has more power: the hammer, or the anvil?
  92. Wall Street mindset by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Forbes Magazine is apparently completely dumbfounded by any corporate decision that doesn't singularly aim to boost the numbers on the next quarterly statement. Long term investment is a mystery to them. Google has the resources to gamble on a multitude of technologies that may become huge in a decade or two, kudos to them for developing with a grander vision in mind.

  93. Did I miss something? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Google Glass never went retail... It's still very much in beta as stated by the company itself. Why is this guy trying to criticize it like it was retail then?

    Same thing with the driverless cars...those aren't even close to becoming "retail" right now so they can't be compared or criticized as such....I mean unless you're trying real hard to look psuedointellectual....

  94. 70's era MBAs can't wrap their heads around it... by The+Fifth+Man · · Score: 1

    ...but Google is built on AD REVENUE.

    They are an idea company and create all sorts of projects that they can't monetize right this second. So business analysts predict cataclysm and say Google is doomed. They are MBAs from a different era and cannot wrap their minds around the fact that Google's objective isn't to monetize every single thing they come up with -- they use their income to fund incredible, forward looking stuff. /Not a google worshipper, by the way, but I "get" what they're doing.

  95. Apple doesn't need to build a car for this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    anecdotal but at the mall nearest my house (Perimiter in suburban Atlanta) the Apple store has BY FAR the most customers/sq ft! plenty of vacancies in mall overall & the m$ store always has a employee/customer ration in excess of 1. if you just looked at that Apple store you'd have no idea there's been any economic disruption in the last 15 yrs...

  96. Tax machine productivity by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Once upon a time there was a continuum of clean jobs paying from minimum wage to family wages that required only a high school diploma. Then Wall Street decided that such a continuum was too much "trickle down".

    Now, there are two types of "clean jobs". Ones that pay from minimum wage to no more than 150% above, i.e. WalMarts and burger flippers. The others require a college degree. The rest are dirty jobs. These cause occupationally related debilitating chronic conditions topping those conditions extant at retirement age. Wall Street's specific intent for dirty job workers that one drops dead as soon after retirement.

    Solution: Restructure Social Security

    *Lose the wage cap
    *Rescale the expatriation tax to discourage expatriation. Expand and enforce the Reed Amendment. Expatriation for ANY reason means permanent bar on re-entry and placement on the terror watch list. Think twice before trying to exercise the so-called VIRTUE OF SELFISHNESS.
    *Have a college degree? Not eligible. The whole point of a college degree is to earn the money sufficient for one's OWN retirement.
    *Have a business at any time in your life? Not eligible. The whole point of having a business is to earn the money sufficient for one's OWN retirement.
    *Have investments totaling over $200,000? Not eligible. The whole point of a having investments is to earn the money sufficient for one's OWN retirement.
    *Born after 1970? Not eligible. The whole point of being born after 1970 is that these people found themselves benefiting from the new economy so as to earn the money sufficient for one's OWN retirement.
    *Apply civil forfeiture to businesses that hire illegal aliens. Hiring illegals is trickle down to people who DO NOT BELONG HERE.
    *Unlawfully present? [FINGER] Your backside needs to be booted suborbitally to your nation-state of origin.

    Rand is just as doctrinaire as Stalin, but she lets you have sex and toys. Sex and toys are what life is all about, RIGHT?

  97. Would you rather make the opposite mistake? by iamacat · · Score: 1

    If you take a chance at making a cutting age product, technology or culture may not be ready for it. Or another company, even a startup, may take your idea and manage to make a much more successful product. But if you stick to your guns, you are 100% guaranteed to slowly fade to irrelevance. Would you rather your company end up like Yahoo or IBM in 30 years? The later at least had courage to go big on Linux even though it was in direct competition in its mainframe business. They achieved a measure of success there, even as other, more radical, research projects went nowhere. But if they were not at least exploring where the future is going, they would surely be goners by now.

  98. Underestimating the case for self driving cars by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Years ago, there wasn't a consumer case for 30 megabyte hard drives. Too expensive. But there was a business case and prices came down.

    The problem with cars is that they currently need a driver. Without it, they spend the majority of their time parked. In other words, there is a public transport case to be made for self-driving cars. Once one looks at the business case, it turns out that even if only pre-mapped routes can be driven, that might not be an issue for buses. Soon after, I predict taxi drivers will be up in arms about self driving cars soon. After that, as prices come down, fewer drunk driving incidents and no more "designated driver" issues. Besides that, part of the technology is likely portable across other means of transport. I'm not sure why trains, subway, trams aren't self-driving yet. Too simple a problem to solve, perhaps?

  99. Their main problem is being Google by Opportunist · · Score: 1

    I would love to have a head mounted display. What's not to like about it? Augmented reality, great!

    But ... from a company whose business model relies on harvesting any and all information about anyone and everyone? Would I want a device that can, by its very nature, record everything I see, everyone I interact with, every place I go, made by a company that has a business model that is based on collecting all this? No thanks.

    Google's problem is not that they're ahead of the curve and that they're so bleeding edge that nobody wants their gadgets. Their problem is that they're Google.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  100. +1 Insightful by mccrew · · Score: 1

    Sorry, no mod points today to do it myself.

    --
    Hey, Windows users, there is no such thing as "forward" slash, there is only slash and backslash.
  101. who would buy it? me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Unfortunately, I have two problems with the whole thing. I can't even afford a normal car right now and I don't think I could ever trust it. I know enough about programming to know that there are a million bugs in the software that will never be worked out. Heck, even Nasa isn't immune... if they're not immune, then some car company that only cares about the bottom line instead of the occupants will never be bug free.

    If I had the money and I could guarantee that my family was safe. I'd buy one. I hate driving. I get lost in thought, I get confused and sleepy at night. I don't drink or do drugs so I'm sure if I get into an accident it's driver error. (mine or someone elses) and that's what this would avoid.

    10 years from now I might have the money and they might have a working product.. at least some semblance of testing. I'll reconsider then.

    As for google glass... a mistake.. maybe.. but who else can afford to make mistakes like that, apple? they don't seem to be pushing any boundaries these days.

  102. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  103. So many incorrect assumptions by neurophil12 · · Score: 1

    1. Responding to concerns over patents, there will be plenty of future patents to make money off of with various improvements to the current design.

    2. A centralized control over driverless cars is a possibility and would be sufficient to achieve many of the great promises, but it is not necessary. Complex adaptive systems can pretty reliably solve problems through distributed decision making. I expect this to be a big component of point 1. A central information resource could help, but the cars don't need to tell the system anything about who they are to improve traffic and reduce accidents so long as the cars follow some accepted protocols. It is likely that regulations will require having a software system that passes inspection and hacking the system could be a major crime, but if there are people who don't want to be tracked then there will be a system that passes inspection that has built-in privacy. This assumes government doesn't require the information and there is actually competition in the market - but I'm just arguing that the author's assumptions are by no means certain.

    3. Others have made this point, but the author's premise with regards to who would want to buy the car is so utterly flawed. The elderly who can no longer drive, the sightless, driving commuters, taxi companies, all of these would have reasons to at least consider a driverless car over the alternative. Then add in the issue of no longer having to worry about parking near where you are going, and many more people might want to consider a driverless car.

  104. The one mistake they keep making... by Maltheus · · Score: 1

    ...is that they introduce products with great potential but do little to follow up on them. If anything they make them worse over time. The only exceptions to this would seem to be search and android.

  105. Don't buy a driverless car: just install the app by YA_Python_dev · · Score: 2

    Another point that lots of people, especially in the US, seem to miss is that these cars are (mostly) not meant to be sold. The main use case is that people will just call one when needed. If done on a large scale there will be a much larger number of cars available than current taxis, so one will almost always be nearby.

    Transportation is not a product, it's a service.

    Much cheaper and requires far less parking space. Also you don't need to bother ever again with repairs and model upgrades. Remember: private cars spend >90% of their time parked. Waste of time and space.

    No wonder Google is making its own cars. Conventional car makers are probably scared shitless of this future and would do anything to keep the public in the old world.

    --
    There's a hidden treasure in Python 3.x: __prepare__()
  106. Then call it the Google Autonomous Taxi. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If Uber can work, the GAT can work even better, and while you ride Google will feed you as much advertising funded content as you want for no extra cost.

    d@3-e.net

  107. Google.me by Brawlking · · Score: 1

    I am neither a hobbyist, or eccentric millionaire, and I want both of these things. I would use my Google Glass in my self-driving Google car, while talking to someone on my Google Nexus phone, and casting a movie to my Google Nexus 7 to ease the boredom. Google that.

  108. What innovations has Google brought?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    To this day, Google has done NOTHING that is not a copycat of what others have done. Except for search and data collection, they haven't even improve on tech that is already there. In fact, most of the products provided by them would be considered mediocre if anybody but Google would had release them.

  109. The one mistake investors keep making by ravenscar · · Score: 1

    This reads like the bible for the short-term investor. As an (admittedly small time) investor, I want to put money into a company that makes solid profits with its current goods/services while pushing the envelope for the future. Be on the bleeding edge. Push boundaries. Create new markets. Fail often, kill your failures, and learn. Don't stagnate in your current market; waiting to be dethroned by competition.

    Something like a driverless car could revolutionize transportation and all of the industries which rely upon it. Being on the forefront of that could spell enormous profits (not to mention entirely new industries).

    Sadly, it seems the current investor is only interested in what a company has done this quarter. That results in companies that are so bent on shaving costs on their current products/services that they completely miss the thing that makes them obsolete. This is one of the reasons Buffett always argued against splitting Berkshire stock. He wasn't interested in collecting investors who couldn't commit to the long-term. Interestingly, Berkshire started as a textile manufacturer. That isn't to say they are on the bleeding edge, but they do represent a company that is willing to look for and invest in something new and different.

  110. For driverless cars to work ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Like the majority of drivers, he believes everyone has a car if they can afford one.

    I am in the majority of people in that I can't drive a car because I don't have a licence. My eyesight allows me to do everything everyone else can, but I can't pass a test.

    I am part of a significant minority in that I can easily afford a taxi to take me everywhere I want to go. A driverless car would probably be cheaper, since I would then not be covering a salary, but in any case would be more convenient.

    Google doesn't need to 'create' a market. I believe I am one of many tens of thousands of people who really cannot wait for driverless cars to become a reality, and am in the queue, awaiting a vehicle to take me to and from work, as soon as such a vehicle is available.

  111. Google Government by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 1

    For the driverless car system to truly work as desired, there would need to be more centralized control over our entire transportation system, from the roads and highways to the cars we're allowed to use, the speed we're allowed to travel and the places we're allowed to go.

    And clearly this is what Google and its principle executives want, among other things. In fact they are creaming in their pants over the prospect of having this kind of control.

    They're playing the long con.

    --
    "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
    --- Jerry Garcia
  112. buggy? by Megane · · Score: 1

    or another, likely more expensive buggy

    I see what you did there.

    --
    #naabhaprzrag, #sverubfr-000, #agi-fcbafberq, negvpyr[pynff*=' negvpyr-ary-'] { qvfcynl: abar !vzcbegnag; }
  113. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  114. Laugh by koan · · Score: 1

    Google Glass will get your ass kicked, and no one is "buying" a driverless car, the cars would be deployed like taxis, there for you to use but not belonging to you.

    --
    "If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
  115. not a mistake by Xicor · · Score: 1

    it isnt a mistake... it is called investing. they can afford to throw tons of ideas out and hope one sticks. this is how the world works when you have billions of dollars of cash lying around.

  116. Sharing by prof_robinson · · Score: 0

    This is kind of missing the point. The point of driverless cars is automating and distributing the hardware. If driverless cars become reality, rental companies (or even Uber) will rent them out when you need them. So, fewer people will actually even need to own a car. Everyone can share cars, more easily.

  117. *I'll* be the first customer!!! by lazylion · · Score: 1

    > it's a product without customers

    WRONG! I'm legally blind and I can't wait to be able to get into a driverless car with my seeing eye dog and cruise to the store at 25 mph instead of spending 3 hours walking there! Just $30k?! Shuddup and take my money!

    There are millions of old people who can be put into them when they can't see the DMV eye test anymore, too.

  118. Duh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'd have the one which doesn't require me to see well enough to drive.

  119. I am a potential customer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't see very well. I am visually impaired and thus am not able to drive.

    I'm not convinced that Google's tech is quite there yet, but a driverless car is something that I would ceratinly look into in the future.

    The TFA is shortsighted, indeed.

  120. Re:disruptive technology always starts out inferio by Haegar · · Score: 1

    And not to forget: Trucks!

    The trucking corporations can save a lot of money if they wouldn't need to stop every few hours because the driver has to pause or sleep. Even if someone is still on board to drive the small streets and for loading, he would be able to rest while the truck goes down the interstate, and be fresh when he is really needed again.

    Could even work for the bigger corps to have a pool of people waiting at a reststop, take over an arriving truck, drive it into the neighbourhood, unload, reload, drive back to the nearest reststop and send it on its way to the next city - and directly afterwards take over the next arriving.

    Right now testing and developing the details is just way easier with smaller personal cars than big 40t machines.

    --
    c'ya haegar
  121. Don't be a sucker by DrProton · · Score: 1

    Driverless cars open up huge possibilities. Think of long distance trips, ...

    I don't believe it. Where's the evidence of driverless cars cars that can replace cars driven by human drivers in all weather conditions, in heavy city traffic (rush hour in any big city), with a mudslide, a temporary detour, thunderstorms, reckless drivers, flood waters, drifting snow, a wreck up ahead, temporary lane restrictions, etc., and all the other unexpected events that human drivers deal with every time we get behind the wheel? I have seen pictures of the "driverless" car and articles written by credulous reporters. I looked at the official driverless car site on google+. I'm not impressed.

    Where is the evidence? How about a map of the streets and roads the car has actually covered? How about turning it loose in Brooklyn at rush hour and seeing if it can make it to the Newark Airport?

    --
    "Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens." - Schiller
  122. Commuting "on the clock". by denbesten · · Score: 1

    ..."given the choice of spending $30K on a car that they fully control and can go anywhere they want at any speed they want – or another, likely more expensive buggy that will only travel on certain routes at slower speeds and with less options." Which car would you buy?

    Today, I spend an hour a day driving to and from work. Being able to work on a laptop and mobile phone as the car drives itself would allow me to punch in and out in my driveway. To me, it is not a question of "which car?", it is a question of if I want the extra hour back in my life or to be paid for working it.

  123. As long as i can still take control. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'll buy a driver less car as long as it's a feature and not a limitation. I will never buy a car that i can't take manual control of and drive across a field off road, launch a boat from a makeshift dock, or do the multitude of other things i do with a car beyond just driving to and from work. I don't want a car that can be hijacked with no way to shut it down and make it do what i want or need it do. That is a liability and not an asset. If i decide i need to jump lanes and drive on the wrong side of the highway to escape a flood i need the car to do it and not balk or prevent me. GPS is unreliable for driving as even though the systems are accurate the people programming and populating the database of information are not. Anyone who has spent any time driving all over cration knows that GPS driving instructions are wrong a lot of the time. Highways and roads change frequently and sometimes it isn't exactly clear how to navigate them. Sometimes i need to drive an area that has no roads. I don't like the idea of people being able to hijack my car with no way for me to cut the compromised systems and make the car do what i need it to do. As long as driver less is a feature i can turn on and off when i need or don't need I'll remain interested. Once it becomes a system for taking control and freedom away from people though i have no interest. If this requires modifying existing driver less cars with my own hardware then i'll go that route if im forced.

  124. Re:Don't buy a driverless car: just install the ap by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

    A lot of people would rather own than rent even when renting is a lot cheaper. They want their own car which they become personally attached to, not a cheaper form of a taxi. And when it comes to travel, it's psychologically much easier to get in the car and go for a drive when you don't have to pay for it directly. Having to think about the cost every time you drive somewhere, instead of just every time you fill up the tank, causes some stress and will make people prefer the psychologically easier more expensive option.

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    This space intentionally left blank
  125. Buying them isn't what they are for by Shirley+Marquez · · Score: 1

    The limited-capability driverless cars that Google is currently testing mostly won't be for individuals to buy. They will be an alternative to urban taxi service. Eventually we will also have driverless capability in more capable cars as an option; you will either be able to drive the car yourself or turn over control to the AI, as you wish.

  126. Hmmmm... by obscuro · · Score: 1

    Google built an ad and PR platform that caters to early adopters with significant disposable income and when it doesn't show up at Walmart the next year this dude calls them stupid.

    Oh, and the demand for a driverless car? How about one ofthe fastest growing demographics in the world - old people.

    If you'received ever in the mood to sample willful ignorance talk to a journalist.

    --
    Every rule has more than one consequence.
  127. The mistake is trying to make money right away by RawBit · · Score: 1

    Companies can't help but make the same mistake over and over again trying to make money quickly from inventions and fail to make last innovative creations. So we are in a cycle that enhance already made technology something that Apple is good at and perfected but never created any game changing innovation.

  128. Google cares about one thing... Advertising. by apocalypse2012 · · Score: 0

    You all miss the point of a driverless car. Long commutes. Idle, captive audiences. The driverless car represents a permanent increase in viewer engagement. A more Internet focused public, driving Google ad revenue, is all the driverless car is about.

  129. a moot point perhaps-- by Insipid+Trunculance · · Score: 1

    From the article " This, in the very country where the majority of the population fights against government regulations, red tape and bureaucracy.".

    So how do you explain in no particular order - TSA , Medicaid , Medicare ,Police and of course your legal system. I am afraid Americans like to believe they retain the pioneer spirit and the there are no rules ethos from two centuries ago but the fact is you say you hate bureaucracy and then embrace it so long as its packaged properly.

    --
    Wanted : A Signature.
  130. Tell that to Walmart and UPS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They are probably drooling over the idea of eliminating the majority of their driver workforce. Imagine a semi-truck that can run 24/7 without ever tiring, with extremely low accident rates, and all the other benefits of a machine. Eventually this will extend to taxis and lastly, your typical driver.

  131. Re:70's era MBAs can't wrap their heads around it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You support the Google hegemony. You are a fucking traitor, a cunt casket and a butt fucking hepatitis infected faggot asshole prick motherfucker. Suck on HIV blood pig fuck. That means felching bloody cum shit from an asshole pigfuck. You low life prick fucking asshole and you called for CENORSHIP here you fuck pig.

  132. Re:70's era MBAs can't wrap their heads around it. by The+Fifth+Man · · Score: 1

    Explaining isn't supporting. You're a very strange, very very angry young man. Channel that into something productive.

  133. Re:I'll buy a driverless car when... by Bender0x7D1 · · Score: 1

    Yes, but most driving is exactly getting from a to b. Daily commute. Heading to the grocery store. Moving kids to/from school and activities. Even heading to a restaurant or other entertainment. Most of the things you list are "occasional" at best and some, like a flooded road, are almost never encountered by the vast majority of drivers.

    No, the driverless car is not a perfect replacement for a skilled and experienced driver. That doesn't mean it isn't useful, or better than 90% of drivers for 90% of their needs.

    Here is a link for you: Perfect Solution Fallacy

    --
    Reading code is like reading the dictionary - you have to read half of it before you can go back and understand it.
  134. Re:70's era MBAs can't wrap their heads around it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You are a fuck. You are a traitor fuck. I know you in real life too. youll never know how or who I am. I might kill myself. Or I might kill YOU before I kill myself depending on what the FUCK you say next, ass-shit.

  135. Faulty assumption by Andtalath · · Score: 1

    Why would Google want to sell cars?

    There is no real logic behind the idea of selling a car.
    This opens them up to hackers messing with their own cars and doing weird stuff, making it legally complicated.

    If they rent the cars, like a cheap taxi service?

    Then they have full control.

    I actually really like this idea to be the norm, not having to own cars would solve a lot of problems, especially bloody parking.

  136. Re:I'll buy a driverless car when... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... it can pull a trailer, and back it into a driveway... or back it into the water. (think launching a boat) ...

    Way fewer people own a boat than a car... and most cars can't do this.

    it can determine when a road is flooded, and choose NOT to enter the water. ...

    Easy.

    it can "feel" how much mass it is moving (think towing a large mass and needing to increase stopping distance/safety margin) ...

    Currently better at this than a human.

    it can anticipate snow conditions and make judgements about routes, grades, and plow frequencies (pull over and wait for a plow) ...

    Again, it has more access to this kind of data than a human.

    it can make the decision to use the oncoming lane, because the travel lane is blocked, even if there are no signs/indicators that divert traffic. ...

    Pretty rare need--can't even think of the last time I needed to do this.

    it can drive down a dirt road.

    Why is this hard?

    ... it can make the decision to put it in the ditch because that was the best option (think pedestrian incursion, animal incursion, etc)

    What makes you think it can't do this? However, these kinds of situations are actually very rare, and usually the result of too aggressive driving that puts you into the kind of position that you're forced to make such a choice.

    To me, driving is so much more than getting from a to b... we climb in our cars to escape the environment outside (especially in the winter), but driving is about understanding the environment outside, and making choices accordingly. I fully believe that driverless cars will eventually overcome all of these obstacles, but I'll likely be one of the last to buy, because my requirements are the highest. I don't need a car for commuting... I need a car for all the other things I do.

    Yeah, you probably won't buy one, but I'll bet you'll end up using one (e.g. in lieu of a taxi) long before you get rid of your 4x4 truck(?).

  137. Hubris of Google by nickrao · · Score: 1

    We don't understand that Google knows what we need and if we just allow them to control our infrastructure and environment, we'll thank them! NOT!!

  138. Re:I'll buy a driverless car when... by Lab+Rat+Jason · · Score: 1

    How many people were affected by the GM ignition switch failure? I call B.S. It doesn't matter how rare an issue it is, all self driving cars MUST be able to determine when a road is flooded, and all self driving cars must be capable of determining if the road is too slippery to ascend/descend a certain grade. Maybe most people don't tow, so I'll accept that as *my* use case, but the rest are all concerns that EVERY driver must be capable of understanding and subsequently making a choice about, even if infrequently.

    --
    Which has more power: the hammer, or the anvil?
  139. Glass isn't selling... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...because it's way too damned expensive for what it is, and doesn't work with corrective glasses!