Re:Good move for the wrong reasons.
on
Hopes Rise for RIM
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· Score: 2, Informative
Given the immediacy of the threat to RIM service, I think this scenario is the best that can be hoped for -- political intervention, either via legislation or influence over the Patent Office. Theortetically the Patent Office has the mechanisms already in place to deal with this issue, but the bureacracy is just slow to take effect...
As bad as patent law has become, it can't be overhauled overnight; a substantial commitment to a thorough review must be made, where the interests of inventors, intellectual property owners, and the citizens of the US are addressed. Not to mention all the other countries with whom the US has intellectual property treaties -- they're affected too.
Conservative estimates indicate Canon has about 50% of the DSLR market, whereas Nikon has 30-35% at this time. So that leaves a remaining 15% to be divided amongst: Olympus, Pentax, Fuji, KM, Sigma, and a few other minor players.
I suspect the 'innovations' in the DSLR market are going to slow down a bit now, the 18mo lifecycle for $1k - $10k bodies will probably stretch to 24mos, maybe 36mos. Unfortunately w/ several hundred thousand 350D Rebels and D70s cameras having been sold, the early adopters have already bought into mount systems, making prospects of explosive growth for one of the niche players unlikely... if you're not profitable now, you won't ever be.
Sony might do something interesting with the KM patents their acquiring, but the odds are against it.
And yes, DSLR bodies might become cheaper...the D50 is a good entry level, perhaps a D500 for Nikon at the $500 point might be possible in the future... but if you're selling $500 cameras, you're not tapping a segment that will buy $1000 lenses regularly.
IMHO, the biggest mistake Sony ever made was entering the music business. They're more concerned with protecting that investment, than letting engineering drive the company...or at least its an internal dispute.
Apple sells computers and computer-like devices. That's it. Focus is key to being successful.
Another example is IBM. They sold of Lexmark, Celestica, their harddrive business, their PC business...and they're strong than ever. Focus on core competencies is what makes a business successful. Microsoft does this do -- THOUGH SHALT PROTECT THE OS AND OFFICE. Alot (most!) of the subsidiary projects Microsoft has done are failures or debt ridden...but the core focus remains, and is profitable.
Aside from iTunes, which really is driven by the success of iPods, I didn't recognise anything on your list. OS/X is the latest Mac OS I think, but how many people have used it? 5% of computer users? oh yeah, only 5% of *retail* computer users...
Yes, I'm being snarky, but a minor move by Bill Gates/Microsoft potentially has much bigger implications than a major move by Apple.
PS The windows media centre you disparage so heavily has a 'lite' version...its called "X-Box".
Firefly, Farscape, Family guy, Futurama. What do these shows have in common? These are great shows that were killed before their time due to poor decisions of TV execs. br.
BZZZTTTT! Wrong! They are all shows that start with the leter "F". You didn't watch much of Sesame Street growing up, did you?
By defining themselves as the _Piracy_ Party, they tacitly acknowledge their unethical stance and self-centered worldview. I'd have more respect for them if they were named "The Free Knowledge" Party or something similar... there is merit in taking a position that copyright is arbirtary and works against society's best interests -- this would be an earnest, noble cause to champion. Even if you disagree with the position, at least it would be well intentioned. But "The Piracy Party" simply screams "attention whore", the political equivalent of a 2 year old temper tantrum -- MINE MINE MINE!
A child can kill himself/herself with alcohol, drugs, or a firearm.
A child CANNOT kill themselves or anyone else through the purchase of a computer game, movie, or porno mag if you wish to take this analogy to its logical conclusion...
The ONLY thing these items can do it provide an 'unhealthy' influence on the child's development. This is 100%, totally, completely, unequivocally, the parents' responsibility. This is probably also a good time to point out that most of the violence due to media exposure "studies" are self serving and do not meet the standards of peer review for social science.
Want proof? 30 year low for violence in North America, despite the preponderance of violent movies, video games, and porn (thank you internet).
The SS officer Hans Kammler was responsible for manufacturing operations for the V2 rocket, and made the decisions to use slave labour from concentration camps. I'm sure Von Braun was aware of what was happening and altered plans to aid the manufacturing process, but to hang 'slave labour' and 'total warfare' on the scientists is a gross exaggeration of culpability.
Also don't forget the fact that Von Braun was arrested in late days of the 3rd Reich and saved from execution primarily by Albert Speer's intervention.
Von Braun isn't guilt free, but his guilt is mainly by association deliberate action and intent.
Just think of German scientists being adopted by the US after WWII. If this guy is really an international authority, he will be back in business in no time.
I hear what you're saying, although I think this a bit disingenuous... the US hired nuclear, rocket, and aviation scientists.... these were skilled professions who practiced their profession for their country; they cannot be tarred with a single 'Nazi eugenics' brush that's tacitly implied.
Now if the US hired Mengele do help develop national health care policy, that's a different story...
Are there any myths that you would like to attempt to prove/disprove, but the risk involved is too great? Specifically, are there any scenarios that you can build sufficient saftey measures around that would allow you to test?
(Love your show, keep up the good work. One of the few things worth watching on Discovery anymore...)
The innocent interpretation is that Microsoft is expecting a global shortage, but not necessarily a local shortage. Accordingly Microsoft does not want individual locations hoarding a large pre-ordered shipment, when for example Moosefactor, Ontario didn't receive any. The 'guaranteed to sell out' clause is probably just an aggressive posture to demand accurate forecasts.
Sony, Apple, Google (gmail!), IBM, etc... they've ALL controlled prices artificially, and certainly controlled supply and demand to extract the best possible outcome.
Actually, you hit the nail RIGHT ON THE HEAD. Cars are cars... incremental improvement in the industry is good (e.g. for saftey, fuel economy, environment friendly) but its not revolutionary. The reason why there's so many models offered each year by each company is more an element of marketing, rather than function. Half of GM's cars are the same freaking car with different body styling.
Apple makes computers; so does Dell. Apple however is much better at marketing and branding; its how they survive as a niche. IMHO this is the heart of what Dvorak is saying... Apple gets more credit than its due, since they're copy friendly and market their style.
Civilisation comes out, people obsessively play till 5am regularly so they can 'build this last final World Wonder'. This syndrome continues until the 5 1/4" disks wear out, the mouse cable is frayed, and the EGA monitor has CRT burn in.
People recover, move on with their lives...then the syndrome re-occurs when Civilization II comes out -- on CDROM!!! Most people feel grunge music was a cultural phenomonen driven by the recession, but oh no -- college kids obsessed with Civ quit their summer jobs and could only afford second hand flannel, sinking 10 hrs a day into a 486 game.
Advance a few years... Civilisation III late 2000. Dot-com crash late 2000. In this case correlation DOES mean causation.
And now... Civilisation IV. Fortunately due to MIT's intense investigations into this phenomenon, hopefully a cure is available for addiction. The economy can't take another Enron/Worldcom/Pets.com.
The difference between Delay's corruption and that of African nations is that in Africa people DIE because of that corruption.
Although I agree its dangerous to paint a whole continent with one brush, its exceedingly hard to find a single stable economy run, by an open government, that upholds 'progressive' ideas like human rights.
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Given the immediacy of the threat to RIM service, I think this scenario is the best that can be hoped for -- political intervention, either via legislation or influence over the Patent Office. Theortetically the Patent Office has the mechanisms already in place to deal with this issue, but the bureacracy is just slow to take effect...
As bad as patent law has become, it can't be overhauled overnight; a substantial commitment to a thorough review must be made, where the interests of inventors, intellectual property owners, and the citizens of the US are addressed. Not to mention all the other countries with whom the US has intellectual property treaties -- they're affected too.
What are the chances that I'll be able to play Zork or Rogue?
Actually, I'd probably buy it for Angband...
Just some advice -- DON'T watch 24.
Conservative estimates indicate Canon has about 50% of the DSLR market, whereas Nikon has 30-35% at this time. So that leaves a remaining 15% to be divided amongst: Olympus, Pentax, Fuji, KM, Sigma, and a few other minor players.
I suspect the 'innovations' in the DSLR market are going to slow down a bit now, the 18mo lifecycle for $1k - $10k bodies will probably stretch to 24mos, maybe 36mos. Unfortunately w/ several hundred thousand 350D Rebels and D70s cameras having been sold, the early adopters have already bought into mount systems, making prospects of explosive growth for one of the niche players unlikely... if you're not profitable now, you won't ever be.
Sony might do something interesting with the KM patents their acquiring, but the odds are against it.
And yes, DSLR bodies might become cheaper...the D50 is a good entry level, perhaps a D500 for Nikon at the $500 point might be possible in the future... but if you're selling $500 cameras, you're not tapping a segment that will buy $1000 lenses regularly.
My initial response: "Ohhhh, the smuggness is _just_ about security!"
;)
Come on now, deep down we all know that every Mac user owns a black turtleneck.
I kid, I kid...
IMHO, the biggest mistake Sony ever made was entering the music business. They're more concerned with protecting that investment, than letting engineering drive the company...or at least its an internal dispute.
Apple sells computers and computer-like devices. That's it. Focus is key to being successful.
Another example is IBM. They sold of Lexmark, Celestica, their harddrive business, their PC business...and they're strong than ever. Focus on core competencies is what makes a business successful. Microsoft does this do -- THOUGH SHALT PROTECT THE OS AND OFFICE. Alot (most!) of the subsidiary projects Microsoft has done are failures or debt ridden...but the core focus remains, and is profitable.
Aside from iTunes, which really is driven by the success of iPods, I didn't recognise anything on your list. OS/X is the latest Mac OS I think, but how many people have used it? 5% of computer users? oh yeah, only 5% of *retail* computer users...
Yes, I'm being snarky, but a minor move by Bill Gates/Microsoft potentially has much bigger implications than a major move by Apple.
PS The windows media centre you disparage so heavily has a 'lite' version...its called "X-Box".
Firefly, Farscape, Family guy, Futurama. What do these shows have in common? These are great shows that were killed before their time due to poor decisions of TV execs.
br. BZZZTTTT! Wrong! They are all shows that start with the leter "F". You didn't watch much of Sesame Street growing up, did you?
That's a great idea! I'm going to do EXACTLY what you've told us to do...
I've got your proof right here!
For your next monologue can you rant about how flu vaccinations are resulting in ADD for US children?
By defining themselves as the _Piracy_ Party, they tacitly acknowledge their unethical stance and self-centered worldview. I'd have more respect for them if they were named "The Free Knowledge" Party or something similar... there is merit in taking a position that copyright is arbirtary and works against society's best interests -- this would be an earnest, noble cause to champion. Even if you disagree with the position, at least it would be well intentioned. But "The Piracy Party" simply screams "attention whore", the political equivalent of a 2 year old temper tantrum -- MINE MINE MINE!
That sounds like something Flexo would say!......
.....
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Who am I kidding? You guys are allll-right!
A child can kill himself/herself with alcohol, drugs, or a firearm.
A child CANNOT kill themselves or anyone else through the purchase of a computer game, movie, or porno mag if you wish to take this analogy to its logical conclusion...
The ONLY thing these items can do it provide an 'unhealthy' influence on the child's development. This is 100%, totally, completely, unequivocally, the parents' responsibility. This is probably also a good time to point out that most of the violence due to media exposure "studies" are self serving and do not meet the standards of peer review for social science.
Want proof? 30 year low for violence in North America, despite the preponderance of violent movies, video games, and porn (thank you internet).
The SS officer Hans Kammler was responsible for manufacturing operations for the V2 rocket, and made the decisions to use slave labour from concentration camps. I'm sure Von Braun was aware of what was happening and altered plans to aid the manufacturing process, but to hang 'slave labour' and 'total warfare' on the scientists is a gross exaggeration of culpability.
Also don't forget the fact that Von Braun was arrested in late days of the 3rd Reich and saved from execution primarily by Albert Speer's intervention.
Von Braun isn't guilt free, but his guilt is mainly by association deliberate action and intent.
Just think of German scientists being adopted by the US after WWII. If this guy is really an international authority, he will be back in business in no time.
I hear what you're saying, although I think this a bit disingenuous... the US hired nuclear, rocket, and aviation scientists.... these were skilled professions who practiced their profession for their country; they cannot be tarred with a single 'Nazi eugenics' brush that's tacitly implied.
Now if the US hired Mengele do help develop national health care policy, that's a different story...
Can you spot me 1,000,000,000 years? I'm fairly certain I can manage it, plus or minus 100 million.
On a related note...
Are there any myths that you would like to attempt to prove/disprove, but the risk involved is too great? Specifically, are there any scenarios that you can build sufficient saftey measures around that would allow you to test?
(Love your show, keep up the good work. One of the few things worth watching on Discovery anymore...)
Dude, you missed cancer.
Then you can submit an article: "Man develops antibodies for HIV. Still no...hey, cure for cancer!!!"
Maybe that's what THEY really want after all.
No, that's what they WANT to you think that they're thinking about your attempts to outthink their doublethink.
I think...
The innocent interpretation is that Microsoft is expecting a global shortage, but not necessarily a local shortage. Accordingly Microsoft does not want individual locations hoarding a large pre-ordered shipment, when for example Moosefactor, Ontario didn't receive any. The 'guaranteed to sell out' clause is probably just an aggressive posture to demand accurate forecasts.
Sony, Apple, Google (gmail!), IBM, etc... they've ALL controlled prices artificially, and certainly controlled supply and demand to extract the best possible outcome.
We have lots of space. Our contribution is the colocation.
okay, and beer.
I was under the impression that Level 1 characters had really bad saving throws... why would you want that account!?!?
Actually, you hit the nail RIGHT ON THE HEAD. Cars are cars... incremental improvement in the industry is good (e.g. for saftey, fuel economy, environment friendly) but its not revolutionary. The reason why there's so many models offered each year by each company is more an element of marketing, rather than function. Half of GM's cars are the same freaking car with different body styling.
Apple makes computers; so does Dell. Apple however is much better at marketing and branding; its how they survive as a niche. IMHO this is the heart of what Dvorak is saying... Apple gets more credit than its due, since they're copy friendly and market their style.
Civilisation comes out, people obsessively play till 5am regularly so they can 'build this last final World Wonder'. This syndrome continues until the 5 1/4" disks wear out, the mouse cable is frayed, and the EGA monitor has CRT burn in.
People recover, move on with their lives...then the syndrome re-occurs when Civilization II comes out -- on CDROM!!! Most people feel grunge music was a cultural phenomonen driven by the recession, but oh no -- college kids obsessed with Civ quit their summer jobs and could only afford second hand flannel, sinking 10 hrs a day into a 486 game.
Advance a few years... Civilisation III late 2000. Dot-com crash late 2000. In this case correlation DOES mean causation.
And now... Civilisation IV. Fortunately due to MIT's intense investigations into this phenomenon, hopefully a cure is available for addiction. The economy can't take another Enron/Worldcom/Pets.com.
The difference between Delay's corruption and that of African nations is that in Africa people DIE because of that corruption.
Although I agree its dangerous to paint a whole continent with one brush, its exceedingly hard to find a single stable economy run, by an open government, that upholds 'progressive' ideas like human rights.