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What is 'IT'?
From "Service Call," a short story by Philip K. Dick:
The young man flushed, swallowed noisily, tried to grin, and then hurried on huskily, "Sir, I'm the repairman you asked for; I'm here to fix your swibble."
The facetious retort that came to Courtland's mind was one that later on he wished he had used. "Maybe," he wished he had said, "I don't want my swibble fixed. Maybe I like my swibble the way it is." But he didn't say that. Instead, he blinked, pulled the door in slightly, and said, "My what?"
"Yes, sir," the young man persisted. "The record of your swibble installation came to us as a matter of course. Usually we make an automatic adjustment inquiry, but your call preceded that -- so I'm here with complete service equipment. Now, as to the nature of your particular complaint..." Furiously, the young man pawed through the sheaf of papers on his clipboard. "Well, there's no point in looking for that; you can tell me orally. As you probably know, sir, we're not officially part of the vending corporation ... we have what is called an insurance-type coverage that comes into existence automatically, when your purchase is made. Of course, you can cancel the arrangement with us." Feebly, he tried a joke. "I have heard there're a couple of competitors in the service business."
Stern morality replaced humor. Pulling his lank body upright, he finished, "But let me say that we've been in the swibble repair business ever since old R.J. Wright introduced the first A-driven experimental model."
For a time, Courtland said nothing. Phantasmagoria swirled through his head: random quasi-technological thoughts, reflex evaluations and notations of no importance. So swibbles broke down, did they? Big-time business operations ... send out a repairman as soon as the deal is closed. Monopoly tactics ... squeeze out the competition before they have a chance. Kickback to the parent company, probably. Interwoven books.
[...]
A swibble. What the hell was a swibble? And he was on the in, industrially speaking. He read U.S. News, the Wall Street Journal. If there was a swibble he would have heard about it -- unless a swibble was some pip-squeak gadget for the home. Maybe that was it.
You can find this story in The Collected Stories of Philip K. Dick, Volume 4: The Minority Report.
Thoughtfully, he added, "In fact I'd say the real war was a war over swibbles. I mean, it was the last war. It was the war between the people who wanted swibbles and those who didn't." Complacently, he finished, "Needless to say, we won."
Didn't anyone else think: he took two small boxes in. he made people very exited. he does transport stuff. it's clean, and safe (hence can't move too fast) so maybe he walk from one box to the next without spending time in-between. A transporter so to speak. But then even I think I'm insane.
Well, it's nice to know that the upcoming Star Wars movie won't be the only huge letdown next year... ;)
DO NOT LEAVE IT IS NOT REAL
Due to repeated reports on
They have a bunch of severe problems:
1. control
I suppose it's a lot harder to fly a vehicle than to drive one. Especially if it's light, and there's going to be hundreds of them flying around above and between city buildings. More so in bad weather.
It would be quite a system that could automatically overcome this.
2. Power
It takes extreme amounts of energy to fight the gravitation. This could be solved by slider-like, foldable wings. Take-off and landing should be vertical to reduce ground area requirements. Once airborne, you should be able to slide.with the wings opened and engine(s) turned horizontal.
I think, therefore thoughts exist. Ego is just an impression.
Personal Transport (hover/copter/sterling-driven/bike/scooter/wheelch air/backpack) has no chance of generating $60 billion in 5 years at $2k a pop. In order for it to make that much money, pretty much everybody in America needs to buy one. In order for that to happen, it needs to be a 100% replacement for a car, because most people will not spend two grand on a second vehicle in addition to their car.
Cars protect from the elements (rain, cold, etc); they provide some protection in accidents (metal frame, air bags, seat belts, etc); they allow you to carry passengers and luggage; they can travel at high speeds (as in >30 MPH) over long distances; they are hard for a non-expert theif to steal.
Given that criteria, a personal craft that can not take you from L.A. to Vegas at 70 MPH, be driven comfortably through Detroit in January, and crash into a garbage truck head-on without killing you... will never replace cars, and therefore will be nothing more than a toy for yuppies and the "Earth First" crowd.
Teleporter - The problem I have always had with sci-fi transport devices is that they don't actually move you. They disintigrate you and then replicate you. Most of us would rather not be destroyed and simultaniously replaced with a copy that has our memories. Also, it can't be done with current knowledge.
Power generation - I could see that becoming a popular option. A lot of home-owners, including me, would have gone solar a long time ago if it was cheap enough. However, nobody can make $60 billion in the home appliance market. The margins are simply not high enough, and if they were you would face stiff competition within a year or two. Also, most urban dwellers live in apartments, where power and utility costs are usually hidden in their rent payments.
Waste Disposal / Water Delivery / etc. faces the same problems as the generator theories.
It seems to me that for "IT" to live up to the hype, it must be something that none of us have thought of, or ever thought we would want. After all, nobody thought we would want to do our computing with a mouse-driven GUI before the XEROX engineers thought of it, and nobody thought they could sell one until Jobs visited PARC labs... but now it is hard to imagine selling any sort of client software without it.
Information wants to be anthropomorphized.
If some CalTech physicist came up with viable fuel cells, do you think Exxon would finance his research & marketing? If someone from CERN produced a useful & net-positive fusion reactor, do you think the various power companies, with their existing plants and related revenues, would be willing to change course and throw their resources behind this research.
Or here's one -- if some kids came up with a robust, scalable, powerful operating system in their spare time, do you think Microsoft would adopt it, or would they do everything they can to neutralize it?
Sad to say, I think this happens all the time...
DO NOT LEAVE IT IS NOT REAL
Who is John Galt?
:( )
(of course, I finally get to read this long after the discussion has died down.
It's not revolutionary enough to impress Bezos and Jobs.
It doesn't have GPS
It doesn't have the ability to communicate with other TurboScooters
It doesn't have a palm device for information gathering and realy
It does have a tracking module, to allow for caravans and auto navigation
It doesn't have the physical hooks to allow daisychaining of scooters together.
Geek dating!
GPL Deconstructed
It's It
What is it
It's it
What is it
Yeah, that Steve Jobs is such an idiot, I mean, his company just released that stupid consumer CDRW/DVDRW drive that writes so fast that a 1 hour movie only takes 2 hours to burn....
What a bunch of morons there are over at Apple... yeah...
Kintanon
Check out JoshJitsu.info for Brazilian Ji
On the bright side, turbine jets have a reliability rate an order of magnitude better than reciprocating internal combustion engines- there isn't much _to_ fail. Flameouts can happen if you slam on high power suddenly resulting in a turbine stall- remember this design would be optimised for a lower rate of speed in the first place, I think it would be not that hard to eliminate the risk of a turbine stall within such a limited operating range. Unlike a 747 turbine, a portable heli turbine would not _have_ to go from 0 to 700 mph, and would not have to have the capability to dump that much fuel in that you could stall the turbines (early 747 engines suffered from a behavior that when you pushed the throttles forward firmly, you got a huge bang and a turbine stall- they had to bring up the engine speed more smoothly with throttle interlocks to avoid this, because of the huge difference in fuel flow and thrust between low and high power)
I think the idea with IT (sticking with my original guess on its identity) must be, "Limit maneuverability to 'stable and gentle' and increase the engine's reliability until it's waaaay beyond the average reliability of, say, car engines/TIRES/brakes/steering linkages etc".
It'd be a hard _sell_, but the actual engineering problem is nowhere near as hard. It's not that much of a problem to produce a jet turbine that is orders of magnitude more reliable than, say, a car. The very light duty requirements and materials such as titanium would only make this easier.
The reason that cars congest cities is not that everyone lives in the city and drives, it's that everyone lives a half-hour commute from the city and drives in. And as the towns a half-hour out become crowded and overbuilt and old, we build bigger, badder freeways to establish new towns farther away that are still a half-hour commute away, resulting in more congestion, more buildup, more freeways, more miles driven, etc.
So, as long as this trend continues, it will all be about speed. You need to keep going faster to keep moving farther away from the problems (crime, pollution, poor schools, lower property values) of those living closer in. It's no accident (ahem) that the 55 mph limit was lifted in the US, as people try to live farther away from central cities, but still want to get there in the same time. Same thing for road rage, "tier 1 suburbs" decaying, sprawl, etc.
So, until something reverses this trend, say, light industries built in autonomous small towns, accompanied by small-scale power plants and made possible by information technology and shattered corporations (all of this is starting to happen, BTW), a clean personal transport won't matter.
Unless, of course, you're suggesting these things can "dock" in bigger vehicles that go 100mph (trains?), and/or have rollbars and harnesses.
All that said, I'd love to own one, if it's what you describe, which it pretty much has to be.
"You can't get something for nothing." - my grandfather, on the stock market and Reaganomics.
Not sure how to read this. How could a scooter/car/whatever be fun? Perhaps the mention of a hover device awhile ago (they've been available for years) could look 'fun' when activated.
The invention could be fun if it suddenly stood up when turned on! Imagine that it is a one or two wheeled scooter that was laying down on the floor and when turned on the handlebars or whatever suddenly rised up as the wheels spinned to stabilize the darned thing!?!
"sweet dreams are made of this..."
http://www.indetech.com/
The site is called "Independence Technology" or could that be short for IT? Remember that Johnson and Johnson is going to be selling the iBot for DEKA.
"sweet dreams are made of this..."
Looks like someone cracked.
"Dean's two-wheel balancing device is really cool," said Dr. Wise Young, director of the W. M. Keck Center for Collaborative Neuroscience at Rutgers University. "It zooms around like lightning just by standing on it and leaning forward or backwards. The battery is the platform. Using it is totally intuitive. It will require reorganization of sidewalks because there will be people zooming all over cities with it."
Read the complete article.
"sweet dreams are made of this..."
But, if you read the article carefully, you'll see it mentions the Stirling engine, *then* talks about a hush-hush project that Kleiner Perkins is investing in. It implies that this is not, in fact, IT.
Damn, I need to track down my college friend who went off to work for Dean doing the US FIRST thing. Maybe he knows...
My bet says it's some sort of super-clean, super-cool transportation. And since it was "turned on", it has something electrical.
I think you're right. At least on the transportation part. Hopefully it does turn out to be super clean and super cool.
But what kind of transportation is it? Assembled from parts carried in two large duffel bags? Sounds like personal transportation rather than a large multiperson vehicle. Is it some sort of kickass, Internet-guided scooter?
And what does IT stand for? I---- Transport?
--
Yep, it fits on so many levels:
1) Is it legal? This would have to be treated as an personal vehicle, but not necessary a aircraft, so you would need additional laws for "driver's" licenses, vehicle registration, speed/ceiling limits, safe flying zones, and so on and so on.
2) Retrofitting cities. You would need a completely different infrastructure to support these; hangars/landing pads, traffic paths or throughways marked. This is assuming, of course, that this vehicle is gas-powered; we might need a whole new power/fuel distribution system to keep this things of the air.
3) Dirty, noisy, etc. As one other poster said, "that's either cars or dogs". And we already have electronic dogs.
4) Mega corp interference. Personal helicopters are going to make this guy RICH because I want one!
5) Building them with a screwdriver/hex wrench/carry it in. It this guy can build a wheelchair that climbs stairs (which would need a very high power-to-mass ratio to haul someone's ass up stairs), then I bet he could apply that kind of power-to-mass ratio to a personal chopper. Building it simply and quickly means it probably is a sturdy pre-fab; not unlike the new scooters/mopeds that are/were the rage.
"Don't mind me cutting myself on Occam's Razor"
http://www.delphion.com/details?pn=US05971091__
That patent would seem to suggest you're on the right track . . .
Gee, the story seems much more like it's derived straight from Brazil.
- passion
If this is the case, then short all of your hypothetical stock in IT.
The technology is there to make personal helicopter-like hovercrafts for about the same price as cars. It'll never happen, and any pilot will tell you why. Adding a third dimension adds about a factor of 100x in complexity. Most people will never be willing to learn to fly, especially for their daily commute.
I also don't think that an incredibly smart autopilot (which I also think is possible) would solve problems: You can't build highways as easily in the sky, even if you're being controlled by a computer.
Still, it's probably the most likely suggestion I've heard so far. Interesting...
"People who do stupid things with hazardous materials often die." -- Jim Davidson on alt.folklore.urban
I was thinking I remembered the name "Ginger" when the comment above reminded me of the Gary Larson "Far Side" cartoon, in which a human is scolding a dog about going into the trash, and the dog only hears "Ginger...blah...blah..blah."
m
One interesting aside is that a cursory web search reveals that this cartoon has launched an entire genre of research, ranging from papers on Far Side semiotics at:
http://www.mtsu.edu/~dlavery/farside.htm
to a class project on writing a finite state machine to translate text into Ginger-speak.
Failing that, a personal hovercraft wouldn't be all that far away from the FAA's current SATS (Small Aircraft Transportation System) effort, which reads a lot like "An aircraft in every garage." Here's a paper on training issues associated with this system, which is supposed to fly in lower minimums than present IFR traffic, with pilots who know less about flying than at present. If that doesn't scare you, check out the rest of the proposed features:
http://www.academy.jccbi.gov/iats/session5b3.ht
Deka Research home of Kamen's research company appears to be slashdotted. The Google-rama cached copy tells us little (here)
;(
Maybe we'll all get lucky and IT wont be bullshit and marketing - maybe it will be something wonderfull - something beyond consumer crap and markatroid drivel... God knows we need something to clear out the underbrush... these are some very serious statments (vauge but lofty).. my only worry is that Jeff "One Click IP $WHORE$" Bezos has anything to do with IT
Maybe IT is a patent for air -- and the 'design changes' required to accomidate IT simply have to do with metering all of our useage
>have a big, broad impact not only on social >institutions
Like rush-hour traffic, teenage mating rituals, and car worship?
>but some billion-dollar old-line companies.
Like Ford, GMC, Dodge, Honda, Volkswagen?
> profoundly affect our environment and the way
> people live worldwide.
NO MORE ROADS! And if we need to go overland, we can just use that off-road wheelchair! Oh, we are assuming this vehicle is cleaner than a car.
"Don't mind me cutting myself on Occam's Razor"
- 6,092,249 - Constant pressure seating system
- 6,062,600 - Anti-tipping mechanism
- 6,062,023 - Cnatilevered crankshaft stirling cycle machine
- 5,975,225 - Transportation vehicles with stability enhancement ising CG modification
- 5,971,091 - Transportation vehicles and methods
- 5,794,730 - Indication system for vehicles
- 5,791,425 - Control loop for transportation vehicles
- 5,701,965 - Human transporter
- 5,522,568 - Position stick with automatic trim control
Hope this helps someone figure it out...This is not a Fugazi
Fits inside a duffel bag and a couple cardboard boxes (I'd guess moving boxes)
Can be assembled quickly with hex wrenches and a screwdriver...
That makes me think of a pair of rollerblades, or one of those scooter thingies!
2 models, the metro and the pro; Just those naming conventions make me think of rollerblades or scooters, too, with the metro being an economical version, and the pro with additional bells and whistles...
And the invention will "profoundly affect our environment and the way people live worldwide. It will be an alternative to products that are dirty, expensive, sometimes dangerous and often frustrating, especially for people in the cities."
It sounds like he's describing something both economical and ecological, as an alternative to... cars? Buses?
I'm thinking... electrical scooters or rollerblades, that can be chained together, like links!
Say, something like a shopping cart sized device, allowing one to sit or stand, with safe and clean electrical power, allowing one to move at, say, 10mph for 25 or 35 miles?
Able to link and chain, to create caravans...
It'll confound people because it isn't quite a car, nor a sidewalk friendly device...
And it'll be definitely fun!
Also, it could have an additional contact strip, to draw power, inductively, from embedded power strips!
Geek dating!
GPL Deconstructed
Jobs told Kamen the invention would be as significant as the PC, the proposal says.
If Steve Jobs says this, he just might be on to something. But how many things have been trumpeted as "PC replacements" in the past, oh, ten years?
Jobs didn't say it would replace PC's, he said it is "as significant as the PC." Big diff...
"And like that
We can only guess at what this genius is cooking up - but, he is definately a man who could do it. We'll just have to wait and see what IT is. Maybe we could get the Chinese to help us out a bit? I wonder if DEKA is hiring engineers?
I like mine better.
"I'll take the red pill. No! Blue! AAAaaaahhhhhhhhh"
- Monty Python meets the Matrix
Here's a bio page for Mr. Kamen. He's got a few patents over on the IBM Patent Server, starting in 1975 and going to the present, mainly for medical devices. You can find more stuff by running a quick Google search.
http://unxmaal.com
Yeah, I read up on his wheelchair; it makes me think it'll be an electrical scooter/cart.
What would be neat is if it had GPS and maps, maybe via built in Palm type device.
Also, the ability to daisy chain and form caravans (and thus the statement about planning cities around it, campuses, etc)
Especially if it could track painted guides, as well as allow for clean electrical power, as well as communicating with each other, and maybe even running off an inductive power source!
Geek dating!
GPL Deconstructed
The invention itself is as interesting as the inventor. Kamen -- "a true eccentric, cantankerous and opinionated, a great character," according to the proposal -- dropped out of college in his 20s, then invented the first drug infusion pump; he later created the first portable insulin pump and dialysis machine.
Of course he knows what he's doing he dropped out of college.
- Revolutionary (Jeff Bezos): (ie it goes round and round.)
- John Doerr is by no means stupid, but he does fund lots of stuff. He helped Netscape startup, for example...
- 'an alternative to products that "are dirty, expensive, sometimes dangerous and often frustrating, especially for people in the cities"'
I'm currently theorising that this is transportationally related: In my mind at least this fits all these criteria - and I can certainly sketch in vague conceptual forms technologies that could influence city design.Heinlein Shipstones anyone?
... and today's pet project has
Yes! A herring!
We shall do no such thing.
Oh, please?
Cut down a tree with a herring? IT can't be done! (The Knights of Ni recoil in horror)
Oh! Don't say that word.
What word?
I cannot tell! Suffice to say is one of the words the Knights of Ni cannot hear!
How can we not say the word, if you don't tell us what IT is?
(cringing) AGHHH! You said IT again!
What, "is"?
No ... not "is"! Wouldn't get very far in life not saying "is."
My liege, it's Sir Robin!
Sir Robin!
My liege! IT's good to see you ...
Now he's said the word!
Surely you've not given up your quest for the Holy Grail?
He is sneaking away and buggering off ...
Shut up! ... No no no! Far from IT!
He said the word again!
I was looking for IT ...
AAAGHH!!!
Ah, here, here in this forest.
No, IT is far from this place.
Oh!! Stop saying the word! The word! The word we cannot hear!
Oh, stop IT!
You said IT again!
Hey, I said IT! I said IT! Oh! I said IT again! And there again! That's three ITs! Ohhh!
PJRC: Electronic Projects, 8051 Microcontroller Tools
1,000 bucks says that's what it is. And the information in the article seems to support this theory, like having the zoning laws changed, it being kind of humorous, etc.
If that is what it is then there are photos here:n ovemat/
http://www.nhmagazine.com/99editions/99october/mi
I think it is very cool too- but, the MSNBC article is hyping it up *way* too much. They make it sound like your own personal hovercraft or something! * Sheesh *
Yeah, I read up on his wheelchair; it makes me think it'll be an electrical scooter/cart.
I doubt it... why would Bezos wonder if it will be legal to use it? My guess is a personal hovercraft type device...
"And like that
I wouldn't be surprised if Ginger is some variant of Kamen's wheelchair, designed to be fast, light and compact.
Argh! I just said IT!
(I think IT's a new form of electric shrubbery. That's why cities and campuses will have to be redesigned. And that's why Bezos laughed when he turned it on. An electric shrubbery is a very silly thing!)
IT?
Holy crap, I'm majoring in IT and no one knows what IT even is?
I should REALLY have just gone into primary education. I could learn to make things out of popsicle sticks and learn to teach kindergarten math.
IT. Bah.
Angry IT woman in big clompy boots. And talking lint!.
The articles clearly indicate that it's a transportation device. The speculation is that the civil structures would have to be changed because currently everything is designed around cars : Roads, parking lots, etc. The mentions towards old economy forces obviously implicates the car manufacturers and the gigantic economic partners of those car companies.
Jobs is quoted as saying: "...If enough people see the machine you won't have to convince them to architect cities around it. It'll just happen."
Cities are currently entirely engineered around cars and the need to get those cars around. If it weren't for cars our social structure would be quite a bit different.
Kemper says the invention will "sweep over the world and change lives, cities, and ways of thinking."
Implication there is hovering, flying, etc. Sweeping over seems to be a hint of something that don't ride on the ground.
Easily theorised though: have an existing product with low cost of manufacture, and sell for a huge markup, just like Microsoft do.
Especially if it's a device (rather than software) you could license it to others to manufacture and sell.....
... and today's pet project has
By then, the electricity bill for riding to work will be more than a days pay, at least in California.
If IT is any of the following:
Wireless Anything
Bluetooth Anything
Embedded Anything
eCommerce Anything
XML Anything
Convergence Anything
I will personally start the greatest jihad this planet has ever seen - enough is enough with the markatroid stunts.
They never do tell you what it is.
And the brethren went away edified.
I thought this article was about the clown (Stephen King's novel/movie?) :).
Ant(Dude) @ Quality Foraged Links (AQFL.net) & The Ant Farm (antfarm.ma.cx / antfarm.home.dhs.org).
The by-line for the MSNBC one says:
By PJ Mark
INSIDE.COM
Ever seen The Rocketeer?
All the hints are there in the article. It is obviously a personal transportation device that:
replaces cars
is fun & appealing
will require/allow city infrastructure changes
is easy to use
would require new laws/regulations
make existing competitors (probably automakers) panic
The article's hints are just to blatant too be anything but some sort of personal autonomous flight pack.
Of course IT could just be the latest version of VIP
IV
"These laws they're passing won't even compile anymore, let alone execute." - anon
My bet says it's some sort of super-clean, super-cool transportation. And since it was "turned on", it has something electrical
If you invented a super-cool transportation device, why would you be demo-ing it to Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs?
Mmmm.. Donuts
I rollerblade; around a *lot* of places, rollerblades are banned, restricted, or prohibited.
Hovercraft is just a little too... sci-fi for my tastes.
Electric go-karts with GPS and auto-navigation and caravan-ing, seems a smarter and cooler idea, myself.
Geek dating!
GPL Deconstructed
IT probably stands for Individual Transport.
It will be an alternative to the car. Thus the reference to the 'billion dollar old line companies' and 'social institutions' - in America, and in many places around the world, the car is a powerful social symbol.
The model named 'Metro' fits with a metropolitan-based transportation device.
Kamen has most recently worked on the 'active' wheelchair, which 'transports' an 'individual'. It would be natural that his mind is still focused on 'individual transport'.
Screwdrivers and hexwrenches indicate a mostly mechanical device, although I wouldn't preclude some pretty smart electronics. His active wheelchair can beat a human in a shoving match and stay balanced, no mean feat.
Anyway, I would bet on IT being some adaptation of the active wheelchair technology. Some sort of powered scooter you strap to your legs? Motorized shoes? Power roller-blades?
Hmm. I think he's (she's?) got it.
It seems to answer a lot of the questions raised in this thread about personal hovercrafts...which happens to be the most convincing hypothesis I've read.
Bravo. If I only had a mod point.
- JoeShmoe
-- I wonder which will go down in history as the bigger failure: the War on Drugs or the War on Filesharing
Another article about it on Salon is here.
e r/ index.html
http://www.salon.com/books/wire/2001/01/09/ging
Coke is it.
You _can_ buy a hoverboard. Unfortunately it's more like a ride-on Flymo than a lean mean street machine, but anyway...
Grab.
You reckon? Look at the guys investing in it. On the one hand, we've got Jeff Bezos who wouldn't know a profit if it smacked him in the face (and that's bcos there's no profit at Amazon to smack anyone with - not even enough to tread on their toes ;-). And on the other hand we've got Steve Jobs, king of the "Marketing Campaign Without Substance" known as the iMac, a range of computers sold on their pretty colours rather than any inherent good features of the computer itself. Oh, and then there's the venture capitalist who's been plugging money blindly at dot-coms which haven't a hope of making money, but wasn't smart enough to realise that none of them would make money.
Is it just me, or does anyone else think this trio aren't exactly the ppl to trust when it comes to finding good ideas?
Grab.
Don't most of us on Slashdot work in IT already?
General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
Really, no joke.
A mechanicaly operated (pedaled) sealed system personal dirigible, with a mechanical gas pump.
Cost efficient, fun, difficult to regulate, cheap to mass produce once the design is right, and requiring serious changes to archetecture to take advantage of them.
I'd buy one, wouldn't you?
-- Crutcher --
#include <disclaimer.h>
-- Crutcher --
#include <disclaimer.h>
But if you do a Google search on "ginger dean kamen", you get nothing. Not even any wack rumors. Deja doesn't turn up anything either.
So, it's got me curious, which is a pretty good PR trick if nothing else.
--Seen
"I used to be a dilettante. Then I thought I'd try something else for a while."
For those too lazy to see the above link: Page two says:
He might run into problems with the Stirling engine, too. The development of a marketable Stirling device has eluded the brightest engineering minds since Robert Stirling, a Scottish minister, patented the first version in 1816. The basic principle of Stirling's external combustion engine is simple: A chamber is filled with a gas that expands as it is heated by a small heat source, such as a propane flame, and contracts when cooled. The process operates a piston and drives the engine. The advantage? Cheap, local fuels can be used to run the engines, and Kamen has adapted his model to produce electricity instead of mechanical power.
But producing the thing is a more complex matter. While many have tried to use Stirlings to power drive shafts for vehicles, they have proved too expensive to manufacture on a mass scale, and they're not always efficient enough. One low tech problem is designing seals that guard against waste as the heat is transferred into a form that does useful work.
Deka's version heats a chamber containing helium, under pressure, and Kamen says it can run on gasoline, propane, fuel oil, diesel, alcohol, or even solar power - with one-fifth the emissions of a gas stove. Deka's engineers think they'll succeed where others have failed because they've ironed out all the kinks. "We looked at the history of the Stirling - all the money and time and expertise poured into it - and identified a half-dozen key goofs that previous teams had made," says project leader Chris Langenfeld. "Seventy percent of it was a materials challenge. We had to track down the right composites to use as seals."
Kamen hopes that his family of Stirlings, five years in development, will soon bring portable electricity to nations without a reliable power grid - or any grid at all. He envisions briefcase-sized Stirlings powering cell phones and cell towers, as well as purifying water. He aims to have them on the market in the next two years, and is currently working on the marketing issues - like how developing nations will be able to afford bulk purchases of the engines, which are projected to cost $1,500 apiece.
I think our friend Ross C. Bracket may have what IT is... a stirling engine powered scooter(?)?
When Kamen was testing his Ibot wheelchair he took it from the bottom of a Paris Metro station to the restaurant level of the Eiffel Tower - up the stairs.
The man is a genius.
-- "The reward of suffering is experience." - Aeschylus
Going on the assumption that the name 'Ginger' is significant somehow, I did a Google search for the word Ginger and other words like 'transportation' and 'Mythology' and 'flight'.
The most intriguing match I found was to the character 'Ginger' in Chicken Run.
A quote from the review "<I>...partly thanks to Ginger, who believes that he'll be able to teach her and the rest of the chickens to fly</I>".
Could this be an invention that will help us 'learn to fly'??
I think everyone is on the right track about this new technology being a form of transportation. Especially considering this guy's history.
Remember, this invention is going to be drastic enough to change our entire notion of how cities should be organized. If it isn't transportation, then it's a new method for delivering utilities.
There's many people saying that this is merely a new type of engine. Think about that for a minute, though. If it were merely a new engine, we could continue using cars (privately-owned, personalized transport) just as we do today -- no change required.
I'm thinking that, somehow, IT is a new paradigm and not merely a new technology. Anything more than that, and I have no idea... but it's something for all of you to mull over.
"Never argue with an idiot. Their drag you down to their level, and then beat you with experience." --Anonymous
Rumor has it that IT requires excessive ammounts of Dihydrogen Monoxide.
For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
-----Original Message-----
m l
From: Jim Bowery [mailto:jabowery@ricochet.net]
Sent: Saturday, December 30, 2000 3:57 PM
To: Ray Calkins
Subject: Bruce Calkins?
Ray,
I don't know if you are related to Bruce Calkins:
http://www.moller.com/about/staff/#calkins
but if you are, do you happen to know if the Moller people have checked out the stuff being done at the University of Houston with their "vortex thruster" approach to the Coanda effect?
http://www.ifdt.uh.edu/vtc/vortexthruster/main.ht
"Our initial conservative estimates indicate that a thruster with a 1 sq. m. chamber area can generate 4 tons of thrust with 17 times less energy than a conventional jet."
Seastead this.
Okay, IT will revolutionise society, require cities to be retro-fitted, may breach existing regulations, and the inventor is a helicopter nut.
My guess? IT is a personal aviation device (eg. helicopter or jetpack) which is manportable, easy to use, safe, reliable and has a useful range.
The car won't be obsolete overnight; we'll still use the car for cargo (shopping etc). But that'll be about it.
--
Andrew Oakley - www.aoakley.com
Maybe it's one of those evil telescreens from George Orwell's chilling tale of '1984'. Given it's around 17 years overdue, it could happen. Furthermore, the MSNBC article says that "If enough people see the machine you won't have to convince them to architect cities around it. It'll just happen" . Also it states that it isn't a question of whether people are going to buy it, but a question of whether it will be legal. It makes you wonder...
Someone ever tries to kill you, you try to kill them right back!
(this is prolly going to look like flamebait, but i swear i wasn't trolling)
if jobs and bezos love IT, then IT must be a method of selling at a loss and then making up for it with quantity!
you too can have your very own DotCom (tm) to sell everything that you think everybody needs but is too lazy to buy it at a real store. here's a testimonial from Bob, started using IT to his advantage:
"A couple months ago, I started using IT to sell groceries on the internet. I figured 'Why would anybody trust the people at their local mom n' pop store when they could send their credit cards to me?' So I was talking to IT Venture Capital Services, and their rep was great! They gave me $10,000,000 just for walking in the door! And then when I told him I had a business idea that involved the internet, He gave me another 10,000,000! IT is the best thing that ever happened to the economy!
oh wait... tech stocks are down...
"I hope I don't make a mistake and manage to remain a virgin." - Britney Spears
From the article:Why the secrecy? Kamen fears, as he states in a letter to Kemper that is included in the proposal, that "huge corporations" might catch wind of the invention and "use their massive resources to erect obstacles against us or, worse, simply appropriate the technology by assigning hundreds of engineers to catch up to us, and thousands of employees to produce it in their plants." What really strikes me strange about this quote from the article is his advisory board. Anyone recall 'Pirates of Silicon Valley' (or something like that) a historical fiction based upon all the IP thievery that was going on in the early days? Jobs stealing from Xerox, Gates from Jobs and Bezos from all of us, etc. If all those guys have a reputation as IP cronies, scavengers, jackyls and thieves would you trust them on your advisory board?Come on. Something is truly strange afoot here. The inclusion of Bezos and Jobs is akin to the wolves watching the chicken coop. The whole quote implies that Kamen is aware of this as a potential problem yet still he makes the assumption that these guys won't rob him blind the very second they have a chance. I dunno. Seems to me like the most brilliant minds often lack the common sense required to make it in the real world. I hope this doesn't bite him on the ass.
Prospecting Stinks. Stop Wasting Time on Cold Calling.
A wheeled vehicle, but with automatic
self-balancing and self-braking functions. Also
with a generic capability to latch on to other
sources of mobility, including special (probably
tracked) vehicles built for the purpose, or
horizontal or vertical conveyor belts, possibly
with a kind of slingshot action to push then
release the vehicles at higher speeds, where they
will remain stable due to electronic and
gyroscopic controls.
May have autonomous capability, so units could
be public (like the experiment with bicycles in
Amsterdam), and could be thus "borrowed" or
perhaps rented when needed and then
automatically would shunt themselves around
the city in anticipation of predicted needs.
They would initially be useful without
infrastructure, but later as infrastructure
(conveyor belts, or conveyor-bot moving vehicles
onto which these personal vehicles could latch)
became more widespread, these personal vehicles
would become more useful. City governments
would invest in huge fleets of them to
alleviate traffic and pollution problems, but
individuals would also buy them for personal use.
(Metro versus Pro, although an individual could
presumably purchase either).
The wheels have to be fairly large (over 8",
say) to allow smooth navigation over obstacles.
The vehicle will also be able to jump when
necessary, absorb bumps with an electronically
controlled damping system, and may be able to
hook together with other units to form a train.
It may have a kind of micro radar to detect and
quickly respond to obstacles such as curbs.
With its low price, the Metro will not have
the ability to recover energy during braking and
downhill... well, maybe with a flywheel. But the
Pro may have this ability.
Note that Bezos et al did not necessarily see
these things doing all their tricks. They did
see at least one of them "turned on." It would
be possible to demo vehicles such as this without
having the full infrastruture in place: one unit
could, in motion, catch up to and latch on to
another unit, which could then demonstrate the
slingshot action of transferring speed to the
first unit. A key technology in all of this is
the same kind of sensing and balancing that goes
on in Kamen's wheelchair replacement, but applied
in a different domain, the domain of coordinating
and connecting two moving entities (vehicle and
vehicle, or vehicle and conveyer belt).
In a time of impending energy crunch (you ain't
seen nothin yet) a more efficient transportation
tool will really take off.
I think this is it. You could build cities around
it. Cities will be retrofitted for it. It will
affect people in cities especially. It will sweep
over the world.
It won't replace cars. Weather will be an
issue. But many cities in the world have way,
way more motorcycles than we ever see in most
of the cities most of us live in, and this will
be a cleaner, cheaper, replacement for those, in
those places where weather doesn't make it
impractical. It will be interesting to see if
it can balance and travel on ice.
On one score, though, all the ideas I've seen
including this idea (I would say my idea, but it
contains parts stolen from many of the ideas of
others here) fail the test: I don't think these
ideas are bigger than the Internet. But maybe
John Doerr thinks so.
Other ideas:
Maglev: nice idea, but takes a lot of juice.
Probably impractical.
Hover: also nice, but a bit extravagent. Keep
in mind, whatever this is, if it is too over-
the-top, there will be some stigma that will
hold back its acceptance. I think these gues
are smart enough to understand that. They
did allude to a bit of a question about whether
people would be allowed to use it, but that fits
for some wheeled vehicles as well as a hover
vehicle.
Toilet: Nah. Not as big as the Internet.
Personal power station: doesn't fit with some
of the hints that are out there.
Wireless internet: Maybe, if by that we mean
ad hoc wireless networks where everyone makes
their own bandwidth available for others to
share when it's not being used, with a
resulting high bandwith network especially in
cities... But there is no tie-in with a dirty
product, in this case, unless it is obliquely
with the fact that telecommuting makes cars
less useful.
If it's time travel, will someone please come back and post as an Anonymous Coward to let us know?
For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
Here is an article on inside.com as well. PR stunt? Good one if it is.
8 &p od_id=8
http://www.inside.com/jcs/Story?article_id=2021
From the article:
According to the proposal, another investor, Credit Suisse First Boston, expects Kamen's invention to make more money in its first year than any start-up in history, predicting Kamen will be worth more in five years than Bill Gates.
Bill Gates has more than US$60 billion to his name. That means this company would go from $0 to >$60 billion in five years? My first reaction is that this is complete horseshit, but if Credit Suisse First Boston, an arm of a major Swiss bank, is behind it, it must certainly carry some weight.
But think about the sheer logistics behind rocketing to more than $60 billion in corporate worth in only five years... it absolutely boggles the mind!
Jobs told Kamen the invention would be as significant as the PC, the proposal says.
If Steve Jobs says this, he just might be on to something. But how many things have been trumpeted as "PC replacements" in the past, oh, ten years?
--
The "Stirling engine" is just too silly and I'm going to throw it out. However, the meaning of IT post sounds plausable. The USPTO patenet listings seems to have some clues. I picked "human transporter" as the most viable entire-product listed. Then there's the Ginger post about what Ginger could mean. An editor (in the linked story) called it a "personal hovering craft". All this seems to jive (and go back and read that patent!). "Metro" and "Pro" seem like good names for transportation devices or some sort.
There's too much mention about "irregular surfaces" and "stairs" and what not, and the thought of people suspended below helicopter blades frightens me so much that I'm going to wager that it is NOT a helicopter. But I believe it is a personal (one-person) hovercraft type device (no doubt, with a novel approach) that has controls like a scooter [or motorcycle] (which allow for leaning), plus a joystick control and a height adjustment control.
The thought of thousands of people with this would jive with what was said about city regulations. With all the current craze over the scooter fad, yeah, I could see people buying them in droves at the right price, and it sounds far more entertaining than the stock of a previous employeer that I have sitting around doing nothing.
Summary: It's a one person transportation device that does not rely on standard locomotion (which makes it cool) such as a motor driven wheel to move you from point A to B. (Of course, I wonder how good the brakes are!)
Anyone ever play the game Paranoia by West End Games? Did you ever get the R&D Catalog that had novel inventions such as the "papercut chainsaw" and the "I scream cone"? Well, if so, you'll remember IT. What is IT? You mean, you don't have IT? I WANT IT! PLEASE! Tell me where I can get IT! All your enemies already have IT! [In this case, IT was a handheld computer device that could wipe out any enemy as reliably as any other R&D device in Paranoia. Which is to say, rarely.] Anyone care to join me in some More Treasonous Songs About Food Vats?
What are the chances that the people responsible for IT hire Linus, have a blank website with no tpyos, and finally name the product after a Robert Louis Stevenson character?
It took some thinking, but I've figured out what IT is... IT is the newest piece of immensely overhype and excessively shrouded bit if techno hype to be produced since Transmeta's cryptic web page first went up!
And people are having such a hard time figuring out what IT is...
:)
If I could only live my life with my threshold at 4...
Here IT is again.
Dancin Santa
Sounds like a game of tag gone horribly awry...
Because if he demoed it to anyone prominent in the transportation industry, they'd probably steal the idea and build it themselves?
--
Obfuscated e-mail addresses won't stop sadistic 12-year-old ACs.
Win dain a lotica, en vai tu ri silota
1. The Hooksett Banner Archives, April 22, 1999
April 22, 1999. This week's stories: (click on the headline to jump to story) Pembroke Academy boys recycle clutter and junk into nitrogen-powered...
URL: www.neighborhoodpub.com/banarchive042299.html - bytes
from THIS Altavista query?
Three men in a small room with hex wrenches, a couple of duffel bags, and a guy with a big "honking" laugh.
Considering that and the known critical mass of each of these men's egos, I'm thinking's its a new, efficient way to masterbate.
IT: (n. eye- tee). 1. A state of having recently graduated from college with a liberal-arts degree and realizing that all your electrical engineering friends are making bank. 2. A catchall term for 40-something HR reps from conglomerates making any number of x (x.) products, none of which have to do with computers. Term explicitly, or implicitly, indicates an incomprehension for technology related substances. 3. (n.)Dodging term for one who works at a failing .com "Harry, where do you work?", "Oh, I'm in IT."
IT(n.):syn. Synergy, Value-Add, (phr.)Thinking outside the box. (side: box (n.) is not implicitly labeled). or, any other number of terms upper-management throws around without any clue of definition.
IT(n.):ant. Work-ethic, Skilled Labor, e.g. "I work for a company that's been around longer than 3 years."
FluX
After 16 years, MTV has finally completed its deevolution into the shiny things network
"It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once." -David Hume
Just because of that "dirty, dangerous, and frustrating, esp. for people in cities" comment you shouldn't assume that it's a form of transportation. What if it's a space heater?
Anyone who went to the national FIRST competition last year saw Dean demonstrate the wheelchair he/DEKA created. I actually have a picture of the thing, but I'm at school right now and can't post it. The wheelchair is designed to make a disabled person feel completely independent and reduce the feeling of inferiority that might come from having to sit in a wheelchair while someone stands over you. The chair has a gyroscope for stability. This means it can switch positions from a normal two wheels on either side, to a one wheel on top of the other position. This makes the person in the wheelchair at the same height as a non-disabled person so that they can look eye to eye. It can actually walk like this, balanced on one wheel. While Dean showed it off, he sat in it the entire time. The thing is designed to work in various terrains, including sand. Another feature Dean showed is one's ability to climb stairs with the device. Using the railing on a set of stairs, one can easily pull themselves up the stairs, while the wheels circle around to climb the stairs. Dean Kamen's done some pretty cool stuff with robotics.
Sheepdot: Open Source good, Closed Source baaaaaaad!
Bah. None of you are thinking big enough. I say IT stands for Instantaneous Transport That's obviously why he needed to build 2 of them - one to transmit, and one to receive.
OK, so I know I'm dreaming, but I want personal teleportation...
-Cyclopatra
"We can't all, and some of us don't." -- Eeyore
"We can't all, and some of us don't." -- Eeyore
- IT is not a medical invention.
- In a private meeting with Bezos, Jobs and Doerr, Kamen assembled two Gingers -- or ITs -- in 10 minutes, using a screwdriver and hex wrenches from components that fit into a couple of large duffel bags and some cardboard boxes.
- The invention has a fun element to it, because once a Ginger was turned on, Bezos started laughing his "loud, honking laugh".
- There are possibly two Ginger models, named Metro and Pro -- and the Metro may possibly cost less than $2,000.
- Bezos is quoted as saying that IT "...is a product so revolutionary, you'll have no problem selling it. The question is, are people going to be allowed to use it?"
- Jobs is quoted as saying: "...If enough people see the machine you won't have to convince them to architect cities around it. It'll just happen."
- Kemper says the invention will "sweep over the world and change lives, cities, and ways of thinking."
- The "core technology and its implementations" will, according to Kamen, "have a big, broad impact not only on social institutions but some billion-dollar old-line companies." And the invention will "profoundly affect our environment and the way people live worldwide. It will be an alternative to products that are dirty, expensive, sometimes dangerous and often frustrating, especially for people in the cities."
- IT will be a mass-market consumer product "likely to run afoul of existing regulations and or inspire new ones," according to Kemper. The invention will also likely require "meeting with city planners, regulators, legislators, large commercial companies and university presidents about how cities, companies and campuses can be retro-fitted for Ginger."
Okay, now consider this:The invention itself is as interesting as the inventor. Kamen -- "a true eccentric, cantankerous and opinionated, a great character," according to the proposal -- dropped out of college in his 20s, then invented the first drug infusion pump; he later created the first portable insulin pump and dialysis machine.
I am totally blown away as to what it is, but it seems like this guy just might know what he's doing...
--
Dang. I submitted this question Ask Slashdot style under science, hoping it would get serious attention, seeing as how Dean Kamen has brought a lot of good to this world through scientific advances.
My personal hope is that the Stirling engine discussed on page 2 of this Wired article is approaching commercial viability. Cheap portable power generation using virtually any kind of fuel? Sounds awesome and of great potential beneifet to humanity. Anyone close to the project have any inside info? Anyone familiar with this technology want to further explain its coolness?
Look, I've read Sladek, I know what IT is, it's an evil robot sent to paint pictures and kill people.. Sure, they're going to think at first that it's nothing, and is in fact something good for humanity.. but then they'll find out and try to elect it vice-president... I KNOW THESE THINGS.
---
"Music is music, but anarchy is stupid." -- Eli Armen-Van Horn
I can do pirouettes off my roof in a 25 hundred pound helicopter.
and
His personal retreat on North Dumpling Island off the Connecticut coast often does not hear the whirr of his helicopter blades more than twice a year. But he could tell you exactly how everything on that helicopter works. He was instrumental in the redesign of the rotor hub, which is where the rotor blades connect to the engine shaft.
Seastead this.
Clearly this is a La-z-boy e-cliner WITHOUT the 6 month Web TV subscription.
These twin-engine personal helo designs worry me a little. What happens if you get a one-engine flameout? Uncontrollable yaw rate, uncontrollable roll rate, rapid loss of altitude, or maybe all three simultaneously?It's possible -- with proper training and constant practice -- to autorotate if you're not too high up to start with and there's enough room to land safely, but I'd worry about weekend pilots trying this.
"How many light bulbs does it take to change a person?" --BMcC-->
If you receive an "IT", get rid of it immediately WITHOUT using it. It is the most dangerous thingy yet.
It will rewrite your hard drive. Not only that, but it will scramble any disks that are even close to your computer (20' range at 72 degrees Fahrenheit).
It recalibrates your refrigerator's coolness setting so all your ice cream melts and your milk curdles. It will demagnetize the strips on all your credit cards, reprogram your ATM access code, screw up the tracking on your VCR, and use subspace field harmonics to scratch any CD's you try to play.
It will program your phone autodial to call only your mother-in-law's number.
It will hide your car keys when you are late for work and interfere with your car radio so that you hear 1940's hits and static while stuck in traffic.
It will give you nightmares about circus midgets.
It will replace your shampoo with Nair and your Nair with Rogaine, all while changing all active verbs to passive tense and incorporating undetectable misspellings which grossly change the interpretation of key sentences.
It will infest your armpits with fleas of a thousands camels.
It will rewrite your back-up files, leave the toilet seat up and leave the hair dryer plugged in dangerously close to a full bath tub.
It wantonly removes the forbidden tags from your mattresses and pillows, and refills your skim milk with whole.
It is insidious and subtle. It is dangerous and terrifying to behold.
It is also a rather interesting shade of mauve. It will cause the universe to implode at the speed of light with a giant sucking sound, and bother those with sensitive eardrums.
These are just a few signs. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
PLEASE FORWARD THIS INFORMATION TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW!!!! Or "IT" will track you down via public transportation. And won't you be sorry then.
It's called a hyperlink:
the article mentioned above
Of course it is slashdotted anyway.
All kings is mostly rapscallions. -Mark Twain, The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn
I say it's a backpack helicopter- twin fans or something. The reason Bezos cracked up would be this: here's a guy hovering in a helicopter suit, _indoors_. I'd have laughed too :) also, that would be one screaming hell of a demo for the convenience and containedness of the vehicle, if you demoed hovering it in a _room_ safely without it being wildly daring and dangerous. Suppose they had these guys like Bezos in a room and _flew_ the thing in through a door? Very impressive demo that would be. The idea is, this is a vehicle so manageable that it's not unthinkable to give it to plain old commuters, so they can commute through 3D space instead of sitting idling in traffic...
Now, what if one plane is at a higher altitude than the other. What happens with the change of potential energy as an object goes from one plane to the other?
--
Hmm. Based on this article, Electronics Boutique should start accepting pre-orders any minute now...
--jwriney
OK, just a theory, but one that meets the criteria specified. IT could be a device allowing instantaneous movement from one location to another. Whether by teleportation or whatever, IT requires a device on both ends, and there is a version which will be installed in most homes to accomodate a person, and one for business to accomodate transport/shipping.
This satisfies all the criteria as follows:
1) IT is not a medical invention.
Obviosly.
2) In a private meeting with Bezos, Jobs and Doerr, Kamen assembled two Gingers -- or ITs -- in 10 minutes, using a screwdriver and hex wrenches from components that fit into a couple of large duffel bags and some cardboard boxes.
"IT" would only have to be big enough to form a "doorway" or maybe two for demonstration.
3) The invention has a fun element to it, because once a Ginger was turned on, Bezos started laughing his "loud, honking laugh".
IT could be used in humorous ways, waving from across the room, etc.
4) There are possibly two Ginger models, named Metro and Pro -- and the Metro may possibly cost less than $2,000.
Once again, one for shipment of goods, one for each and every home.
5) Bezos is quoted as saying that IT "...is a product so revolutionary, you'll have no problem selling it. The question is, are people going to be allowed to use it?"
I can REALLY see legislation coming into place because this constitutes a threat to national security.
6) Jobs is quoted as saying: "...If enough people see the machine you won't have to convince them to architect cities around it. It'll just happen."
Two words: No streets.
7) Kemper says the invention will "sweep over the world and change lives, cities, and ways of thinking."
Yup, it would sure do that... An 8 hour day at the office would be just that... an 8 hour day.
8) The "core technology and its implementations" will, according to Kamen, "have a big, broad impact not only on social institutions but some billion-dollar old-line companies." And the invention will "profoundly affect our environment and the way people live worldwide. It will be an alternative to products that are dirty, expensive, sometimes dangerous and often frustrating, especially for people in the cities."
OK, we have automotive, trucking, and air-line industries... and replacement of all cars in the house for only $2000 would SURELY be a less dirty, less expensive, less dangerous solution, that would especially help those in high traffic areas. And who here hasn't been frustrated while driving?
9) IT will be a mass-market consumer product "likely to run afoul of existing regulations and or inspire new ones," according to Kemper. The invention will also likely require "meeting with city planners, regulators, legislators, large commercial companies and university presidents about how cities, companies and campuses can be retro-fitted for Ginger."
OK, this one, well you would have to put up legislation to limit what this can do to continue to control international travelfor a variety of reasons from drug trafficing to terrorism.
Anyway, those are just thoughts that make sense to me as one possibility of IT.
Sometimes when you read ACC, you come across a description of some all powerful complex device with a spooky name. But if you think about it and try to draw it you'll see a theromocouple or a rheostat.
"What's going to happen to me Dave?"
"Something wonderful."
Ka-Booom
Dual, because that is the most sensible configuration for a personal hover unit- one at each shoulder. Ducted, to help contain noise, improve safety, and because the fanjet operates on the principle of surrounding the bypass fan with a cowling to increase its efficiency.
We are talking about twin micro high-bypass jet engines of some variety- bear in mind that the high-bypass means the jet exhaust is only the center of the blast, and the vanes turn a much larger fan which produces most of the thrust through suction and its own exhaust. This muffles the jet whine and produces huge amounts of thrust- hundreds of thousands of pounds at very high efficiency for 747s, and those fans are not all that much bigger than a tall man.
Fans for jets are designed to take bird impacts directly in the blades at close to the speed of sound- this personal version could get away with _much_ lighter construction. The lighter the construction, the less weight it has to lift and the less thrust, noise and general air violence it has to generate- also, jets are optimised to fly at very high speeds. There is no reason to believe a high-bypass jet could not be designed to operate in the hovering position- if you wonder about the hot jet exhaust consider this- turboprop engines are also jet engines turning propellers, and many modern turboprop engines have the jet section (which produces the power) firing backwards. Air comes in the back, turns around, and goes out the front after powering the props! If that is possible, so is having the jet exhaust going through a _muffler_ after powering the fans. And again, these engines could be tiny tiny tiny if they only have to lift betwen 50 and 150 pounds _each_, at a very specific airflow (hovering). The whole design would be altered throughout to optimise for the very different conditions- for instance, 747 engine fans have to take brutal impacts, but these little fans could be far, far lighter.
Consider some other clues- Slashdot has run an article on a potential new method of making _titanium_ almost as cheaply as aluminum. Who is using titanium in mass production now? Steve Jobs. Who is said to know all about this IT thing? Steve Jobs...
I am almost certain that this dual fan personal heli-backpack thing is made mostly out of titanium. It might be a tenth- a fiftieth! of the weight of the old jet backbacks and those proof-of-concept things in which the vehicle is half again as heavy as the passenger. High-bypass jet engines can be outrageously light- even _without_ heavy use of titanium you'd be surprised how light turbine engines are compared with reciprocating engines. Turbines can be designed to run at the ultimate peak efficient RPM for their operation- and with this design, the fans too can be designed to also run at peak efficiency. Then instead of adding so much thrust that you can go 'kapwing' up into the sky, you just cut back on the engines more and more until the peak output is just enough to lift you easily- and the engines are about the size of big Maglite flashlights...
Mark my words. I bet this is what it is. What the heck else could it be? A unicycle? Please.
According to Kemper's proposal, IT will change the world, and is so extraordinary that it has drawn the attention of technology visionaries Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs Hmmm. Not exactly the first two names that come to mind these days when the phrase "technology visionary" is uttered. Maybe Jobs. After all, he was so visionary he was able to release a crippled G3 with a builtin monitor, USB-only interfacing, and no floppy drive, and revive an otherwise dying company. For his next amazing masterpiece, he'll replace your orderly, comfortable, but buggy GUI with one that never crashes, but makes much less sense visually.
I do not have a signature
'Cause IT's only knock and know-all, but I like it...
--
Never hit your grandmother with a shovel, for it leaves a bad impression on her mind...
yet..
--------------------------------
you must see it for yourself
I was waiting for someone to say this. Two Dr.Suess references have been floating in my head since reading this: "moss-covered, three-handled, family grudunza" and "a thneed's a fine something that everyone needs!"
:-)
I hope that IT is less imaginary or at least less destructive
"You can't get something for nothing." - my grandfather, on the stock market and Reaganomics.
If this is the case, then they've already been beat to the punch. The price is a little steep, you could probably cobble together a unit yourself for $400 or so, hardest part being the gears/transmission.
..don't panic
No, maglev doesn't work that way.
On the other hand, I have a have a heard time imagining cities, etc, paying to install sufficient maglev infrastructure unless the resulting system was perceived as a lot better than the current kludge. Not that roads and i.c. vehicles are that great, but a lot of the drawbacks aren't visible to Joe Average.
If this is a transportation device, it'll have to be able to function -- at least to some extent -- with no additional infrastructure. Or at least infrastructure that's relatively easily added, like buried guidewires or something like that.
...the wrong trousers, Grommit!
OK, I look up Dean Kamen--someone I've never heard of--on Google, and find pages and pages of links to things about him. Try that with anyone else, (i.e. someone really famous) and you'll get a bunch of dead links, misleading links, barely peripherally related links, and the like. Nothing nearly as impressive or _targetted_ as a certain Mr. Kamen.
That sets my spidey-sense a-tingling.
But lest I be accused of being too much of a curmudgeon (which brings one to ask--is it possible to be too much of a good thing?), let's assume that IT is real, and IT's what it promises to be.
How about a personal servant? I'm not talking about a solar powered lawn mower, but a _real_ personal servant, the sort that Matt Ruff wrote about. (go look him up--one of the best damned authors alive today!) Could that be IT?
Oh, no--I have it.
Cold Fusion. For real this time.
Unfortunately, it STILL won't be a revolution.
"People who do stupid things with hazardous materials often die." -- Jim Davidson on alt.folklore.urban
It won't be long before you come to think of it as "your own personal hovercraft or something." This thing's freedom itself for a lot of people!
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Politics is about making compromises. Religion isn't. --Michael Horton
Personal Helicopter
Personal helicopters are somewhat available today (Kamen uses one himself) so there's no real need to retro-fit a city or campus to accomodate one. Besides, I think humans have enough trouble navigating 2D space, let alone 3D space. And besides making leaps of technological advances in propulsion systems to support such a device, I sure wouldn't have a warm gushy feeling in my tummy that my neighbor could slice and dice me with his "transportation device". Gives a whole new meaning to road rage.
Modified iBOT (wheelchair)
Based on the fact that the first point in one of the articles says it is not a medical device, I think we can safeley rule out a wheelchair or wheelchair like device for getting around. Besides, I can't see the masses accepting this as an alternative to get to work in.
Personal Jetpack
I can't see a device like this sweeping the planet, even if it is cheap. It's hard enough to convince a business exec to strap on a helmet to ride a bike to work let alone a jetpack. Again we have the 3D space navigation problem and again, there's no retro-fitting needed for a device like this so I don't see it meshing with the info that's out there.
Scooter
Nothing fun here. These things are just as dangerous as current travel methods and I can't see anyone laughing if one of these (motorized or electronicized) was turned on. Also, these exist all over the place in non-motorized form and I don't see any city, campus or facility leaping to retro-fit their world.
Which leads to..
Hover Device
This is my choice for what I think it could be. Why? Simple. Imagine a simple device that would be personal and compact. No real big change in how cities operate but you could alter sidewalks to accept these much like walking paths are now altered to accept bikes and humans. Getting to work would be just like walking, except you wouldn't be walking but sitting down and navigating. The execution could be simple through the use of Kamens previous patents. He has a device to adjust trim via a joystick device. So what's easier to use than that? Tilt forward to move forward, left to move left, right to move right. Trim is automatically adjusted to the terrain (and you're only a few inches/feet off the ground so it's not a lot of adjustment). The device could be assembled quickly from a compact set of bags, no argument there (see images below on how compact it would be). It certainly would be fun because its just like riding bumper cars at the fair (hopefully without the bumper aspect though). I sure would laugh seeing one fired up as it lifts off the ground. Are people going to be allowed to use it? This is an interesting controversy. Why can't they use it? Licensing? A bike/car/helicopter would certainly need some kind of licensing if it follows the rules of the road. A hover device wouldn't since it really is just an alternate to walking and thus is executed on the streets and takes up no less space than a human being. The restricted use might be imposed at an age level. Not available for people under 16 much like mopeds are now. An alternate to [cars] especially for people in cities. Well, I can tell you that I would jump at the chance to save the $15/day parking if I could get to work using such a device and I'm sure others would agree. If that's all you use your car for, why not? It certainly wouldn't put automakers out of business but it would affect them greatly. Imagine you still have a car but only use it 2 or 3 times a month for large hauls or long trips. Otherwise you get around with your IT. Maintenance, oil and gas costs would be reduced. The life of the car would be extended and automakers would see less people buying cars less frequently.
I've included a sketch here of what it might look like and how it would be constructed (this is really rough but you should get the idea).
liB
IT is a way for Amazon to be profitable and for Apple to have more than 5% of the market again.
:)
Obviously this would require something huge and innovative that would seem impossible today.
Another guess...
IT is a copy protection scheme for audio and video that cannot be broken
=== The price of freedom is eternal vigilance
Given the clues, and the speculation here on /. - I believe I know what IT is. Bear with me - I haven't read all the posts here (not enough time!!!), but two different paths have emerged which both point at what this thing is:
IT is a bicycle.
IT uses a very advanced Stirling engine for propulsion.
Nothing else seems to fit all of the clues. A small, foldable (and easily assembled) bicycle seems to be the only device that would ellicit a laugh from someone, being that bikes are fun to ride.
A Stirling engine is the only type of device that would make old big industries nervous (lower fuel consumption, and coupled with a bicycle, it would make auto makers tremble too). Some have said that such a Stirling engine couldn't be made, but I beg to differ - there have been numerous studies done to build Stirling engine powered automobiles, but all had the flaw of slow startup times that was thought would deter consumers (the best, done by Ford (?) took 10-15 seconds from "turn the key" to "go", back in the 1960's I believe - yeah, that takes too long for me - not!). But on a bicycle, one could pedal for that long until the thing was going, then let the engine take over (plus, that would reduce the load on the engine during startup, keeping it from stalling, and limiting, or eliminating, the need for a transmission).
Remember - "Ginger" means lightweight, quick-on-the-feet, so to speak. Such a device would have all that. The core technology of the advanced Stirling engine would have a ton of other uses, as well.
Such bicycles, if used by enough people, would cause need for city planning - look at any large city where the residents use a ton of normal bicycles, and you will see what I mean. Plus you would need the infrastructure for refueling, in some manner.
That is my guess. If any of you have ever seen Kamen's iBot wheelchair (this thing is truely amazing - it affords such a level of mobility to those who need it, that the term "wheelchair" doesn't really describe it - think "mobility chair", that comes close), you know this guy knows his stuff, and isn't a crackpot.
I guess we'll know how close I was come next year...
Worldcom - Generation Duh!
Reason is the Path to God - Anon
This is consistent with his patents and the description provided. It's not a medical device, the price and size are about right, and if it takes off, it would change the use of streets and sidewalks. It would have many of the same legal problems as skateboards, rollerblades, and scooters. It also has a major product liability problem, but if he's attempted FDA approval on a wheelchair, he may be able to deal with that.
That is the one word the Knights who say Ni cannot stand! Ni! Ni! Ni!
Stupid Cheap Guitars
Well, as far as PR stunts go, I doubt this is one. It's not Dean's style in the least. And before you ask, yes, I have met him although I do not know him personally. In fact I saw him last Saturday. Above all things Dean isn't really all that interested in making money anymore. He's more interested in changing the world (witness what he's done for FIRST). R Deka Research, Dean's company, is a completely R&D firm. They do contracts for some companies but I believe most of that's just to pay the bills. The real work is the stuff that Dean directs them to do. The iBot was one thing that Dean directed Deka to work on that was not something a company asked Deka to research. The more important projects Deka does (ie. those started by Dean) are usually too risky for any corporation to want to develop. In all honesty I almost expect Dean to reveal what this new invention is at either FIRST's Kickoff (January) or National Championship (April) next year. As to what it is, my guess is that's it's a Stirling Engine that actually works. They're pretty cool and can burn almost any fuel. Is this as big as they say it is? Knowing Dean, I would bet on it. Matt Leese
IT is a hoax.
Also since the invention was described as replacing something "dirty, expensive, sometimes dangerous and often frustrating" it mean that it would replace a human assistant.
Also this kind of thing wouldn't be that far out since Honda recently demo'd their walking robot and Kamen demo'd his iBot. Also text-to-speech (http://www.lucent.com/speech/) and speech-to-text (http://www.lhsl.com/) software already exists. The hard part would be gluing the stuff together so that the robot would be easy to use and useful.
It would be revolutionary, fun, possibly cause legal concerns (what?!? have robots walking around?) and cities might have to be designed around them to give them a separate lane to travel from point A to point B.
"sweet dreams are made of this..."
- IT is not a medical invention.
- In a private meeting with Bezos, Jobs and Doerr, Kamen assembled two Gingers -- or ITs -- in 10 minutes, using a screwdriver and hex wrenches from components that fit into a couple of large duffel bags and some cardboard boxes.
- The invention has a fun element to it, because once a Ginger was turned on, Bezos started laughing his "loud, honking laugh".
- There are possibly two Ginger models, named Metro and Pro -- and the Metro may possibly cost less than $2,000. Bezos is quoted as saying that IT "...is a product so revolutionary, you'll have no problem selling it. The question is, are people going to be allowed to use it?"
- Jobs is quoted as saying: "...If enough people see the machine you won't have to convince them to architect cities around it. It'll just happen."
- Kemper says the invention will "sweep over the world and change lives, cities, and ways of thinking."
- The "core technology and its implementations" will, according to Kamen, "have a big, broad impact not only on social institutions but some billion-dollar old-line companies." And the invention will "profoundly affect our environment and the way people live worldwide. It will be an alternative to products that are dirty, expensive, sometimes dangerous and often frustrating, especially for people in the cities."
- IT will be a mass-market consumer product "likely to run afoul of existing regulations and or inspire new ones,"
- according to Kemper. The invention will also likely require "meeting with city planners, regulators, legislators, large commercial companies and university presidents about how cities, companies and campuses can be retro-fitted for Ginger."
** It's a ROBOTIC PROSTITUTE!! ** oh happy day!It's 10 PM. Do you know if you're un-American?
- IT is not a medical invention.
- In a private meeting with Bezos, Jobs and Doerr, Kamen assembled two Gingers -- or ITs -- in 10 minutes, using a screwdriver and hex wrenches from components that fit into a couple of large duffel bags and some cardboard boxes.
- The invention has a fun element to it, because once a Ginger was turned on, Bezos started laughing his "loud, honking laugh".
- There are possibly two Ginger models, named Metro and Pro -- and the Metro may possibly cost less than $2,000. Bezos is quoted as saying that IT "...is a product so revolutionary, you'll have no problem selling it. The question is, are people going to be allowed to use it?"
- Jobs is quoted as saying: "...If enough people see the machine you won't have to convince them to architect cities around it. It'll just happen."
- Kemper says the invention will "sweep over the world and change lives, cities, and ways of thinking."
- The "core technology and its implementations" will, according to Kamen, "have a big, broad impact not only on social institutions but some billion-dollar old-line companies." And the invention will "profoundly affect our environment and the way people live worldwide. It will be an alternative to products that are dirty, expensive, sometimes dangerous and often frustrating, especially for people in the cities."
- IT will be a mass-market consumer product "likely to run afoul of existing regulations and or inspire new ones,"
- according to Kemper. The invention will also likely require "meeting with city planners, regulators, legislators, large commercial companies and university presidents about how cities, companies and campuses can be retro-fitted for Ginger."
** It's a ROBOTIC PROSTITUTE!! ** oh happy day!It's 10 PM. Do you know if you're un-American?
This was the great promise of the new revolution - that we could work from home and home could be a suburb and we could still quickly contact our urban friends.
Well, IT will force cities to reevaluate their design because parking spaces now may have to go verticle.
IT will run afoul of FAA regulations.
IT runs afoul of billion dollar companies - GM and Oil companies is my guess.
And so forth.
Personalized levitation maneuvering system.