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Tech Jobs Projected to Double by 2010
netbsd_fan writes "Today's Chicago Tribune has an article that claims that the number of coding jobs will double by 2010, and computer support jobs aren't far behind. It's hard to believe since I just laid off our last two Win32 guys Friday. Could this be a turning point in the labor market?"
That would be great. In the meantime, I'd be happy to see tech jobs return to their former level, let alone double.
Dr. Demento On The 'Net!
But I need a job now!!!
Hacking the Network
Double of nothing is still nothing. Sorry.
I think I shall change my job in that case ;]
They may have a point. But computer users are becomming smarter and smarter.
Back in the day people charged out heaps just to plug a computer in or reinstall it. Nowdays everyones a computer technition and can do it themselves.
Surely they will just invent some AI version of software with a nice point anc click interface (more so than there is now) that creates all the software you need!
/sig
Not that I have a problem with that...
Great this after I just changed my major away from computer engineering.
In other news, the population of Indians and Chinese living in the U.S. is expected to double by 2010.
Hmmmmm....
Funny how over the last 2 years my department went to a third of its size...from nearly 40 at the height of the boom to only 12...and now it's going to take 7 years to double current numbers? Looks like a lot of techies are gonna be out of jobs for awhile to come!
My company is moving locations and intends on laying off everyone who doesn't want to relocate...let me tell ha how excited I am!
I was a fool for thinking that an ISP job was a stable gig...
// Agent Green (Ian / IU7 / KB1JQO)
// IEEE 802.3: All 10base Are Belong To Us
because of this prediction more people will go into computer related fields, and thus the job market will again "suck".
For The Best Jazz/Hip-hop fusion > COlD DUCK
More Coders = More Bugs More Bugs = More Tech Support Guys More Tech Support Guys = More Confused People More Confused People = More Montiors with fist sized holes in them
I hope that I have enough Top Ramen to last until then.
We're hiring...
Check out our infosecurity industry blog: http://securitymusings.com/
It's hard to believe since I just laid off our last two Win32 guys Friday.
My guess is that the demand for windows specific programmers will be essentially non-existant in the future. Cross-platform apps will undoubtedly rule everywhere, even the desktop.
Despite the current situation, I don't think anyone could realistically predict a long-term deterioration in the tech industry. Regardless of the whether your Nortel stock is doing well or not, technology is just too important to today's economy, underlying business activity in nearly every sector. If it can drive down cost, or provide a competitive advantage, it will be valuable longterm. I'm sure that I'm preaching to the choir here, but technology isn't going away...
Further, as worker productivity increases in the longer term, while natural resources become scarce, it seems clear that an increasing proportion of our output will have to consist of services and 'intangible' (e.g., information) products.
Either that, or we'll all be unemployed and starving...
Jobs are about to double, but not in the USA!. Tech support and programming jobs around the world will double by 2010, and even if it does double in the USA, the more it doubles the lower our salaries.
I'm sorry but soon programmer will be what teenage kids do, like mc donalds of today.
If you use Linux, please help development of Autopac
I graduated with a Computer Engineering degree at the end of Decemeber, and after three long months of searching, I finally got a great job and am starting tomorrow. According to some of the recruiters I've talked to in the past couple of weeks, they are starting to see an increase in the number of jobs available in the field. If I can get a job with little real world experience in a town that has had hundreds (maybe thousand) of layoffs in the tech field, things must be looking up.
I think your lack of formatting is enough incentive for me to go ahead and register right now.
"Quoting famous computer scientists out of context is the root of all evil (or at least most of it) in programming." - K
We are experiencing what will be later known as the beginning of the second tech bubble.
Sure, I hope there are more tech jobs in the future, but does anyone still trust these 'economists?'
Shouldn't they have predicted the initial tech fallout? Almost none did. In fact, when have they ever been right?
Maybe I'm just too cynical, but I'll believe this one whan I see it.
I would not be surprised if programming job opportunities doubled in less than 3 years!
The catch is, you need to move to a third word country to get one of those new programming jobs, or at least be willing to work at 3rd world rates.
That is the unintended consequence of connecting everyone everywhere. Now employers can hire anyone from anywhere.
Huge amounts of indian workers flowed into the country with H1B immigration status. In short, if you can program or do tech work you can live in the US as long as you work in the industry (or your h1b ends). This is factor in why no one can get a job in the silicon valley area. Lots of people were displaced. After all the H1B's end, a lot of people will have to head back to India. This will open up a lot of jobs. This isn't like 20-30 jobs, it's like hundreds of thousands. I'm living in the bay area and it's funny cause jobs are so hard to get now. Entry level stuff requires like 5 years experience (isn't entry level about not having experience?) It's a rough time for some of us!
That's my opinion of course. Any experts around? Can anybody point at an article written 7 years ago that predicts the end of the bubble?
My $0.02
Nonse. Other countries for the same reasons were
also equally viable yesterday. Why would they
be more viable tomorrow? Please understand that
hourly rates is not the only consideration when
it comes to build a 5=Billion plant, or to where
to locate you business, in general. At least not
most of the time.
The traditional approach of in-house techs for companies doesn't work in a large company becasue the numbers people want to mess with the formula. They see the potential for consolidation which reduces the number of peope needed to support your network. Then they see cheaper programmers available in India or China or any one of several countries with decent education and low pay. So they export those jobs.
Eventually, they see a few ex-techies managing the people who used to be hot stuff making too much money to repeat decisions made by the senior management, and replace those with accounting types.
Remember in most companies it is the overriding goal of Finance to reduce costs. The other parts of the business bring in the profits. One way to reduce costs is to standardize jobs so they can be filled by less talented people with lower earnings.
There will always be a tech industry, but I'm not so sure with outsourcing and globalization that there will be a large American tech industry. The trained monkey jobs may be the last few left.
And so you know who's talking, I'm a VP of IT who worked his way up from general geek over the last 18 years. I've seen the trends play out and I just don't feel good about the future of our industry.
the major advances in civilization are processes which all but wreck the societies in which they occur - A.N. White
...will be in India, or wherever anybody is willing to code for $1/day.
Now they're projecting a big turn-around in the labor market 7 years from now. Next they'll start wailing about a severe shortage of labor.
Wansu, th' chinese sailor
I found in my job search that my longevity in the field was a problem. In general, years in the saddle directly translates into dollars. So its actually easier for younger less experienced yet well exposed candidates to land jobs because their lower cost.
So I would go in for a job that was a perfect fit for my experience, plus I could bring so much to the team. But never heard a thing. After talking with headhunters and other recruiters, it was clear that companies were looking at dollars first. In fact, I almost didn't get the job I have because they didn't feel that I would be happy with what they'd be willing to pay. This is true, but hey, its better than the nothing* I was making before!
In other news, the people I know in the VC arena say we're in year three of a six year slump in the IT industry.
Its great that you found a good job right out of school.
*Actually, panning $25/hr doing odd contracting work, when I could get it, and only then if I could get the client to pay up!
"Stop whining!" - Arnold, as Mr. Kimble
This is pure ITAA propoganda. This story comes out every year in a slightly different form. Even at the height of tech layoffs they were babbling on about how many IT jobs there were and how there wasn't enough workers to fill them all. The reason for tell these lies to so they can get congress to expand the H1B and H1 visa programs. The H1B limit falls back to 65,000 this fall so they are starting to put out these articles to lay the basis for claiming a shortage and the need for more importation of foreign workers.
My guess is that, as tech workers are willing to settle for significantly reduced salary and benefits, the number of tech jobs will start climbing again. So the article is probably right in its assertion that the number of tech jobs will increase.
Carefully read the article, and you will see that the majority of quotes deal with "expanding your skill set." That's good advice, even in the best of times. But the quotes are coming from persons who directly benefit from unemployed IT workers going back to school or testing for certification, so-called workplace and staffing consultants.
Times are tough all over, and you can't begrudge these people for trying to create business for themselves, but in these tough economic times, it seems irresponsible for the Chicago Tribune to report this as news. The article represents nothing more than opinion which a lot of people currently without work will misinterpret as fact and act upon, waiting for the predicted boom to occur.
Luckily, I am still employed, but I know that if the current economic conditions don't change for the better, I will be looking for work in a few months myself. It seems to me that one of the most irresponsible, even stupid, things that I could do now is to dip into my savngs to "improve my skill set" because a bunch of experts with books to sell have convinced the Chicago Tribune that there is another high tech boom just around the corner!
My mortgage doesn't care how up to date my skill set is. Neither does the grocery bill each week. I sympathize with those who are looking for work. I'll probably be doing the same thing in a few months, and I think the smartest thing any IT worker can do right now is prepare to get through the here and now, and not these boom times that are part of imagined future.
When I started at my current place, out site had 22 people (including manager) supporting 600 people and probably 800 devices. That was 5 years ago. Three years ago we went down to approximately 9 people including the manager. This was not a surprise because the company was a contracting company which went down in business. It lost almost half it's staff by that time but maintained most of the devices. Money was almost non-existant and new PCs were a dream in most people's eyes. About 2 1/2 years ago we bid for a big project and gradually gained back 200 people to bring the user population back up to 500. What happened to the IT group? Nothing.. in fact, if two people hadn't left we would have had to lay off 1 or 2 more. Odd, considering the amount of work just increased 40%. Cut to beginning 2002... we are given extra money to hire two more help desk staffing contractors.. renewing tentatively every two months. Cut to 2nd quarter 2003.. those two help desk positions are now full time. We have 10 people. And now there will be double the positions? I don't think so... People learned and won't go down that road. If they can do less with what they have now, they'll keep it that way. And if they do.. it returns the staffing levels back to the way it was 15 years previously... now.. how screwed up is that??
In response to the question asked in the write-up, "Could this be a turning point in the labor market?" - no. This isn't talking about some specific turning point (and indeed most posts are currently noting that people feel the current workforce is so diminished that a doubling of jobs isn't much growth at all); rather this article is talking about a general demographic trend. We're entering the time period where the baby boomers are starting to retire, and the generations that follow after them do not have as large of a population. According to the article, "between now and 2010, for every new member added to the workforce there will be 2.6 new jobs created."
The title "Tech Jobs Projected to Double by 2010" comes from looking at the table provided at the bottom of the article where it states that the occupation of "Computer software engineers, applications" will grow from a current 380,000 jobs in 2000 to 760,000 jobs in 2010, or 100% growth. Note that that's job growth between 2000 and 2010, not between today and 2010 - so think about employment levels in 2000 instead of today; I know our company was twice as large in 2000 as it is today. The table actually lists 9 different jobs that I would call "Tech Jobs" that have pretty healthy growth rates - the tech slant in the article is that while all jobs are growing (in part due to baby boomer retirement) technology jobs are growing faster than any other jobs.
The implication of the article is that because this job growth rate will lead to a tighter employment market than was seen in the 1990's we will someday soon (well, someday before 2010) see the type of high wage growth and high starting wages in the tech industry that were a signature of the 1990's boom. All due to supply and demand in a labor market where people are retiring faster than new people enter the market.
My personal concern is that as this occurs the cost of Social Security will skyrocket (due to all those retiring folks), and if our federal budget keeps going the way it is we're going to end up with very high taxes that could offset the benefits of higher wages. (Of course, this will end up screwing the poor more than anyone else, of course, because payroll taxes aren't progressive - everyone pays the same percent no matter what.)
On a positive note (for those of us who call ourselves employees), this article should be a wake up call to employers to start treating their workers well, or they might have major problems in 7 years. With all the blogs, messageboards, and websites (F*ed Company comes to mind) that are storing a record of how companies treat their workers, you will end up paying tomorrow for the sins you commit today.
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I did get one offer for sum that is laughable.
Do you know what is a laughable sum? $0.00. Anything else in a time of job shortage is good. Just because you can't get a job being lord high muck doesn't mean you can't move out into other areas, and man if you're on your last bagel you will do anything.
I have done everything from stuffing envelopes to deliviring junk mail(yes I was a snail mail spammer), from working in Pizza Hut to being the only development guy in my organisation. One thing I have learnt is do not be too fucking proud to accept the shit jobs. They may be shit but at least they pay more than sitting on your arse waiting for the magical call from the recruitment agency.
html ENGINEERS!
oh my fucking _GOD_!!!!
html *ENGINEERS*!
is this the end?
A computer programmer per the BLS, will:
A software engineer for applications per the BLS, will:
And a software engineer for systems will:
The BLS also mentions that a job as a software engineer is only likely with at least a bachelor's degree in a related discipline.
My personal concern is that as this occurs the cost of Social Security will skyrocket (due to all those retiring folks), and if our federal budget keeps going the way it is we're going to end up with very high taxes that could offset the benefits of higher wages.
I think most people would agree that the US's current Social Security program is non-sustainable. I pay Social Security, but I don't expect to see any of that money when I retire in 30+ years. Fortunately, I am a pessimist and I'm planning for retirement without Uncle Sam's "help". Many of my coworkers are not US citizens. They must pay Social Security too, but they are not legally allowed to collect it (unless they become US citizens).
Does anyone here think that the US can or will phase out Social Security within our lifetimes? I understand that current Social Security recipients need to get paid, but I hope we can phase out this "benefit" so I can keep more of my paycheck each month. We could significantly increase Joe Sixpack's take-home pay without cutting "taxes"! We wouldn't need cuts in "taxes" or budgets (except Social Security). I'm not calling Social Security a "tax" because, supposedly, I will later get my money back, though the government will get to keep my compounded interest.
You can find more information about the US federal budget at federalbudget.com. The US spends more on Social Security that it does on the Department of Defense! Social Security spending is #2, close behind Health and Human Services at #1.
cpeterso
I agree completely, on all points made. In fact I would like to see the H1B program eliminated completely in favor of a program making it easy for anyone with certain kinds of skills (engineering, medicine, computers) to easily get green cards and become citizens.
Sure it increases the number of people competing with us for jobs here, but the key word is 'here'. If they remain in third or second world countries they will still be competing with us, but at cut rates because of lower cost of living. Bring them here and make them good capitalists and consumers like the rest of us. America will be the better for it, and the rest of the world the poorer.
But, as it stands, the H1B program is more like bondage than anything else. It means that the workers are not competing fairly for work in a free market. So we have all the problems and none of the benefits of an America bound brain drain...
- -
Are you an SF Fan? Are you a Tru-Fan?
...for good coders.
I've been coding for twenty-one years. There always has been and always will be a shortage of good coders. The problem is there are too many average and way too many poor (or awful) coders. 95% of the people who write code shouldn't have been hired in the first place; someone should take them out back and cut their fingers off. Bad coders can write bad code faster than average or even good coders can fix it. Ads in the paper for a small busines looking for one coder bring somone in who sings the sweet song and their code eventually works. Then after that joker leaves, someone else comes in and and looks at what they've inherited. It's almost better to not take on that work.
Ever been billed out for $125 to fill in behind someone who turned on the manure spredder while they were coding?
The bottom line is lots-and-lots of people like to code and think they are coders, but they simply are not even average coders.
***Sterilize them so natural selection takes over. ***
"Be more sensitive to where job opportunities will happen, what you want to do and what you should do to prepare yourself for those jobs."
... wait. Oh that's right, remember WorldCom? They promised stuff too.
I honestly cannot trust any analyst that sits behind a desk and "writes" about what he/she thinks will happen in 7 years. 7 years!!! I can't even tell you what clothes I'm gonna wear tommorow, let alone that Computer Engineer/Software (whatever it is) is going to double in the next 7 years.
This is one person's opinion. Albeit a positive one. But hey, please don't get my hopes up and then disappoint me. I'm already down cause I'm a new grad with not much experience, trying to get a job.
Bah! I resent the entire Hi-tech industry ... damn I'm so bitter.
But I know what I want to do. It's Networks, It's Telecom, It's
If I understand correctly, you replace the experienced people, with recent graduates. This lowers salaries. However, does this really reduce costs?
In reviewing code written by less experience co-workers, I have seen obvious improvements for readability, maintenance, debuggability, and performance (performance is secondary - except where it is needed). Personally, I review my own code for these type of improvements and when I can, I improve it.
I will surmise that it may reduce costs over the next 3 months, however, that cost reduction will be replaced with increased costs for maintenance, and finally a complete redesign because the code that has been developed is just too difficult to manage.
Sure, tech jobs will probably double in the next seven years. But tech salaries will probably be halved.
Face it, my six-figure-salary career is going to become the equivalent to that of your average librarian, cashier or even mechanic.
I think the mechanic analogy is probably the best. There is little difference between your average mechanic and your average computer/software/techie engineer type - other than one is physical and the other is not.
Does your average mechanic make six figures? Hell no. Is your average mechanic treated by the public as anything more than a barely-literate high-school drop-out (even if they aren't)?
If you want a respectable career where you are considered a valuable professional, find something else. The writing is on the wall for us.
Everyone is talking about IT positions. The real story will be the full time positions that are offered in the workforce. Just about all of the full time positions will be part-time related with no benifits. Companies just want to hire someone to complete a task and pay them. Forget about anything elese. Guess what.... The wages will also decline to a point of low wage earners. Gen-X's are going to get really screwed. It's really based on the amount of activity in the market place. Which at this point of time, based on previous history. Is at an all time low. When is the last time anyone has seen a nation wide project? I'm not counting the War in Iraq.
This article was written to try to get people to buy technology training. In reality I expect most companies to be reducing the staff of their IT departments to try to become profitable again.
Computer systems these days are built with more redundant and more powerful components that are easier to maintain. Most companies have switched away from the Windows 9x line which saves a awful lot of time dealing with stupid desktop issues. We have also seen the change to web-based software which is getting cheaper and easier to implement and support every day. It is now possible for a small group (3 people or so) to manage a large pool of inexpensive web-servers (20-50) which supports a huge application used by thousands of people. This model is increasingly being used and it works well and saves bundles of money. This, combined with companies new-found zeal for cost cutting will drive the numbers of IT professionals down in the coming years.
My advice is if you aren't in IT, don't try to get into it unless you are really good with computers. If you are in IT but aren't very good at it, think about finding another career. The future in IT may not be very bright.
set softtabstop=4 shiftwidth=4 expandtab nocp worlddomination
I took course in heavy machinery controlling (Cranes, Bulldozers, Payloaders etc...) and I expect to make just as much. Paid overtime, what a luxury! :>
J.
I can only tell you that our company has always outsourced our programming to American companies and consultants, while we retain our support and administration in-house.
I can't imagine what it would be like if we started outsourcing our programming work to third world countries. It's difficult enough sometimes to get American programming types to understand what you want, or why things aren't working correctly in plain english, let alone try to deal with people through significant language/cultural barriers. Projects can get pretty costly when pieces have to be done over again and again because the programmers didn't quite get what you meant the first time around.
I think American companies who try to cut costs by outsourcing to third world countries are going to get exactly what they pay for.
This is not meant to be a slight against programmers in other countries, but programming is a service, not a product. I think that it is ultimately less costly to purchase services from within your own country (or even city/state) wherever possible even if it appears to be more expensive on the surface.
Some companies understand this. Some don't. The companies that don't will suffer eventually.
I'm sorry there is another word for that - "Slave Labour". I don't care if it just an internship you are providing a service to the company and as such should be getting paid. Even if it is just minimum wage.
My experience is that there is a lot of diversity among my Indian coworkers. Some of them aren't so good, and others are wonderful. It's unfortunate that there aren't enough jobs for all of us, but I'm not sorry they came. They're my friends now. They've become "us".
"Those who have never entered upon scientific pursuits know not a tithe of the poetry by which they are surrounded."
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/13/magazine/13UNEMP LOYED.html
The above article talks about a guy whose former job position was "vice president and a director of interactive marketing for Rapp Digital" currently employed as a sales person at a Gap store.
Talk about diversifying your skillset!
At the risk of sounding cynical, isn't that exactly the same thing that was said in the late 90's, shortly before the dot-bomb?
I will believe it when I see it.
Bruce Lane, KC7GR,
Blue Feather Technologies
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Depends on the person, just like with any age group. The kids who really want to learn and write good code, do. The ones who half-ass it and do it to be "1337" write crappy code. Personally, I'm 18. I've been programming for a couple of years now. I know I'm not a hacker god - there's a LOT I dont know, and I'm constantly learning. But by the same token, I know the code I write is a lot cleaner than code I've seen written by people that are a good deal older than me. No, I couldn't write a kernel driver to save my life at this point, but what I do know how to do, I make a point to do well.
You'll find people like me in ANY age group, and you'll find the ones that do the job poorly right there with them. I think the reason why you may be associating crap code with young kids my have to do with the fact that in older generations, you REALLY, REALLY had to want to do this as the equipment was expensive and hard to get. With younger generations, it's a much more ubiquitious thing, you're going to have more people that do it simply because it's more accessible. I've been around computers constantly literally since I was born, and what I had is insanely primitive compared to what kids just starting school now have. It doesn't hurt either that computers have lost their geek stigma. It catches me off guard every time someone my age thinks the fact that I know what I do is "cool."
My point is, there are a lot of bad young programmers out there, but there are a lot of good ones too. I graduate next month. I've already worked fairly heavily with DirectX, OpenGL, and SDL and dabbled some with MySQL some on the side, all before starting college. There are a lot of kids out there who started a lot sooner than I did too, and are a lot better at it. Hell, the kid who wrote DeCSS was my age. I think you're a bit too quick to discount the young generation of programmers, personally.
This kind of article is pure hype. No one knows what tech jobs will be like in a year, much less 7. I tend to think that articles like this are promoted to get more people to become techies in hopes of glutting the job market so companies can offer lower salaries. One thing is clear: Right now, the job market for techies is lousy. In Silicon Valley there are 50 - 100 thousand engineers out of work, many for over a year. There are no signs of the economy improving. And don't count on any phony voodoo from the Bush camp. They're only interested in helping the wealthy get even richer!
$VC =~ /lemming/
I can't stand the suspense. Is it a match, or not?
If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
But then the Strowger automatic exchange was invented.
I'm well aware what employment is for, however "Do you know what is a laughable sum? $0.00. Anything else in a time of job shortage is good. Just because you can't get a job being lord high muck doesn't mean you can't move out into other areas, and man if you're on your last bagel you will do anything." that's not what you said. You might have ment something else, but. To put this and the other post I replied to in perspective. People have a lot in common with companies. They have expenses (food, rent, clothing, shelter, etc). They have investments (education in all it's forms previous, present and future, etc). And they may even have taxes, and dependents (shareholders) Now in either case would it be in any way benificial to "sell" what's being offered "below" one's break-even point? What about break-even? What does that do to the future? Sounds like "anything else" isn't the wise point you thought it was. Everyone's "break-even" point is different and advice that worked for business A will not always work for business B or C. Pride may have nothing to do with it, but practicality might. Keep that in mind next time you judge others.
Economists have successfully predicted 8 of the past 5 recessions.
It's interesting to note how many people from the United States on /. and other boards are complaining about the lack of jobs in the tech industry. It seems that although jobs elsewhere pay less, there are far more of them.
Here in South Africa, the tech industry hasn't been through a so-called slump, in fact, the job market is probably better now than it was in 1999. The difference I see, though, is that most people here are talking about programming jobs. Going by pure numbers, most tech jobs here are either in networking or hardware.
Even at our company, which isn't a tech company by any means, we have 4 full time techs working on the in-house system (post-sales, customer relations, operations, call tracking) written (mainly) in Java and Python, and doing general network/system admin.
Friends that I met at Unisa who graduated with Computer Science degrees haven't by and large had any problems finding jobs, although it seems that more experienced people are sought after in more advanced areas. But the so-called lower-end jobs (and yes, I know that there are more advanced sub-divisions of each of these, but I'm talking about entry-level to mid-level) - Networking, System Admin, Hardware, Support - are pretty easy to get into.
We hang the petty thieves, but appoint the great ones to public office. - Aesop
The gartner group estimates that 38% of all IT jobs currently are outsourced to oversea's comapnies and that is expecting to grow over 50% during 2004!
Its going to get alot worse in the future as the remaining companies who have "expensive" American workers will feel the pinch of competition from those who outsourced and now sell there products cheaper.
http://saveie6.com/
You need to be careful on what you mean by 38% outsourcing. A lot of that is outsourcing American IT jobs in America. While India has grown, it is not yet that big.
Further, based on direct contacts with Indian outsourcing firms, there are two other phenomena of interest:
1. Indian outsourcers are hiring American front-ends.
2. Indian outsourcers are starting to do their own outsourcing as the Indian labor pool becomes more expensive.
Things that are outsourced tend to be the more "mechanical" jobs, requiring less innovation. Therefore, if you are supplying only marginal value with your current skill set, rethink.
It has a rather depressing article about three middle-age professionals who have been unemployed for several years. Two have technology backgrounds, although only one appears to have anything approaching a hands-on technology job.
Regardless, the whole personal downward spiral was presented, including ugly spousal relationships, disappearing financial futures, McJobs, and so on.
One guy had a job as some kind of "New Media/New Economy" guru, one guy had a PhD in physical chemistry but became an "IT Consultant" and another guy was a banker.
The banker was in the best situation, kids college funds and his retirement were pretty squared away, it was mainly maintaining his current standard of living that was at risk.
The New Media/Economy guy (who has a set of computer books, "Einstein's Manuals" or something, written pre-Dummies) seems fairly finished. He's working at the Gap for $10 and it seems unlikely that his particular speciality will ever be revived.
The IT Consultant was hard to judge. He's obviously smart (PhD), but what kind of an IT Consultant is he? He was one of those guys that moved into IT in the 90s from another tech field and probably got pretty advanced positions due to his educational background and general intelligence relative to what was available in the job market now. The bummer for him is that he's looking for those same, $150K jobs and they're gone forever. If he was looking for techmonkey work he might do better, but it wouldn't support the $2.5k mortgage.
What I can't decide is if the economy is permanently shrunk or if the "new economy" portion + excessive profits part only. It's scary, anyway.
I'll be lucky to still be employed in 2 months... and I've been looking, but my own opinion at this point is that my salary is probably an issue (although I don't really consider $81K outrageous for an experienced Sysadmin, in this market I'm sure there are enough unemployed to be willing to take $60k for the same job).
Then again, I'd consider less depending on the company... to get away from the boss that calls me a f-ing a-hole on a regular basis, because I refuse to kiss their ass.
On the bright side, I made a point over the years to sink as much as I could into my house.. to the effect that I paid it off last year after about 11 years. So my only expenses are taxes, insurance, bills, and food/gas. Knowing the end is coming, I've been making a point of banking as much as I can for the inevitable. I could survive for a few years if I needed to.
I've seen too many people who make good money and have to live "high-on-the-hog". Yeah, when I started out I bought a small house w/ a $1200/month mortgage, which was tough at the time but got easier over the years. I have some friends who were loooking to buy a house... 4500 sq ft for *two* people. They are taking home over $8k/month between the two of them, and have no savings. Or another guy I know who'se $300K house was suddenly appraised $100K higher in this housing boom, so he *borrows* another $80K to put in a heated in-ground pool... and then loses his job. Passes to the local swim-hole would have been far cheaper.
I'm actually looking forward to being unemployed for a while. I've got friends to visit, and I really want to re-evaluate the whole IT thing... maybe switch careers. It was nice while it lasted, but its just too stressful and cutthroat right now to be worth it.
...But they'll all be farmed out to India... and for a lot less than I'd be willing to take to relocate to India...
Although, perhaps I can make a lot of money building the network backbone to India that will allow this to happen on a large scale.
You see? You see? Your stupid minds! Stupid! Stupid!
That is the unintended consequence of connecting everyone everywhere. Now employers can hire anyone from anywhere.
No, this is a totally intended consequence of integrating the world's markets. Do you really thing stuff like NAFTA was dreamt up as anything but a way for companies to get cheap labor? It certainly hasn't provided any benefits to the citizens of North America w/r/t increasted availability of goods, more stable markets, better market competition, or what have you.
Cute thing is, if the US tried to enact legislation to protect its workforce (yeah right, not until Americans realize that billionaire oil tycoons are not, and will never be 'just regular Joes like you and me'), the WTO would probably slap it on the wrist for obstructing free trade.
I think you're overstating the case here. Outsourcing isn't just about the third world.
I'm an American living in Hungary. According to salary.com (at least) my line of work pays between 70-120K per year in the SF Bay Area. That's pretty consistent with what I've made there as a consultant, and what my friends there are making.
Now consider Budapest. Hardly third-world. About to join the EU. Highly-educated IT workforce, most speaking really good English in case it matters. Excellent infrastructure in most parts of town. A decent number of both natives and foreigners with serious IT experience in Western Europe and the USA.
Half of the above-mentioned salary would get you the equivalent spending power here, and in many ways a higher overall quality of life. Even with the ridiculously high taxes.
And Budapest, by Central-European standards, is a very expensive place to live.
I'm sure some version of the above is true for places like Bangalore too, though I haven't been there.
(And yes, a fair amount of outsourcing comes here, albeit more quietly than to, say, India.)
So when a company is thinking about international outsourcing as a way to cut costs, we shouldn't think it's always like Nike making shoes. For that matter I fully expect to see a lot of growth in regional outsourcing within the USA, once more infrastructure reaches the more rural areas.
This has been the case for a long time, and certainly predates the current economic downturn. The flip side of it is that, especially in IT, you still want quality and you still need some chain of personal relationships (and trust) in order to get it.
I think it's a good thing.
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This Like That - fun with words!
The market for IT jobs from where I sit has not as much become stagnant as it has become more demanding for people who understand the domain in which they are working. For example, I work for an aerospace firm. This company would, under no circumstances, hire an IT professional unless that IT professional had an understanding of the business. After all, it is FAR easier to train an aerospace engineer how to be an effective coder than it is to teach the coder how to understand aerodynamics, propulsion, and thermodynamics. If you understand your domain, you are infinitely more valuable than if you can present yourself as "just a coder".
some time before 2010, the market will have been reduced to a single programmer. he will threaten to quit unless he gets help, so they will re-hire the last guy they had laid off, doubling the number of tech workers.
Liberty uber alles.
After reading the article, I am again struck at how vague reports such as this can often be. For example, it lists system admininstration as a field with increasing demand but doesn't mention administration of what architecture. I'm of the opinion the probable increase in admin roles will be related to the ever-increasing implementations of Linux in the workplace. That said, what programming languages do you expect to be most needed in 2010?
Ok, better. Looks fine now.
-B
Ash and Hickory, straight-grained and true, make excellent bludgeons, dandy for the cudgeling of vegetarians.
Given the (as I see it) somewhat socialistic bent of
Downmodding is the refuge of the weak. Don't downmod, make a better argument!
I said the same thing for years, but then I had an epiphany. That teaching HS is everyone's backup plan is what gives us so many uninspired, uninspiring teachers. Teaching is hard, and I respect my friends who are dedicated to it too much to consider it my backup.
Doesn't more experience make a difference or do employers look for pieces of paper that say I complete some courses dealing with particular hardware/software?
... leave it off the resume. If you can't afford a certification then you can't get it can you? If you can't afford certification I bet you can't afford college either since a lot of the same monies can be used for both. (Personally if it's real education versus certification I think a real education wins hands down... but not for job getting reasons.)
If you can get certifications but not experience which should you go and get? Wait? didn't I just premise that you couldn't get experience? So that would mean... if you can get a certification it won't hurt. If it turns out to hurt
What do employers look for? Depends on the employers. Remember employers are the same people that ask for crazy things like "5 years experience programming in VB, printer drivers in C, and IPL with Ada95"
True personal experience:
I was trying to get a Unix job hacking PERL and the second interviewer said:
"Do you have an MCSE?"
I answered no.
She said, "Well, there are plenty of applicants with MCSE's for this job."
"I have a four year college degree in computer science."
She replied rather miffed, "Well, I don't even think we should be talking to people without MCSE's."
Now put that in your bonnet and soak for a while!
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