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Next Generation Space Shuttles

zymano writes "Popular Science has an article about the next generation space shuttles. If you're wondering about what happened to all those cool ideas for a new shuttle and what happened to them then this story will explain it. Mentions the politics, design, costs and time for a new shuttle." There's some neat images of mockups as well.

226 comments

  1. I didn't rtfa by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Ok so Monday night I'm in a bar.

    Some fuckin weirdo is talking to me. He is trying to recruit me as a programmer. He wants me to guide his spaceship to mars. He wants to beat NASA to mars. He doesn't want to work with NASA because of his ego. God has told him how to get to mars. He doesn't hold a degree and dropped out of school in tenth grade, but that's just because he has four sons. He has mathematical proof that God exists. God directly told him how to get to mars. He has the plans all in his head. He is an engineer. He says Microsoft is open source. He says I am a communist. Someday he is going to find his programmer.

    He rambled something about a zero diameter circle. As my boss said, "isn't that just a fucking dot?"

    I got up and said "we were just leaving" when Dana says "we didn't pay our tab yet." Dammit. Awkward.

    1. Re:I didn't rtfa by Billy+the+Mountain · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      So what was he paying? Did he need any Java programmers?

      BTM

      --
      That was the turning point of my life--I went from negative zero to positive zero.
  2. Hey hey, by Freston+Youseff · · Score: 4, Funny

    As long as the new space shuttles have some modern computers on board (as opposed to the dated ones on the current shuttles) and the re-entry tiles are properly glued on, then the new shuttles will be just spiffy.

    --

    1. Re:Hey hey, by gilesjuk · · Score: 2, Funny

      Not to mention they need cable TV and a fast net connection to share MP3s, I'd love to see the RIAA send an anti-piracy taskforce into space. I wouldn't put it past them though:)

    2. Re:Hey hey, by Bold+Marauder · · Score: 3, Funny

      With funding being what it is, they may have to settle for 99 cent scotch tape instead of glue!

    3. Re:Hey hey, by Tyrseil · · Score: 3, Funny

      Wouldn't most of our problems be solved if they'd just have used duct tape in the first place?

      --
      Everything I say is a lie...
    4. Re:Hey hey, by geoffeg · · Score: 5, Insightful

      > As long as the new space shuttles have some modern computers on board (as opposed to the dated ones on the current shuttles)

      What's wrong with the current computers on board? Sure, they're old but they still work and if they still work, why replace them? IIRC, the computers did all they could to try and save the shuttle. In the end, I'm sure it wasn't the computer's fault.

      Geoffeg

    5. Re:Hey hey, by Atzanteol · · Score: 2, Interesting

      If they replaced the computers with newer ones, the savings in weight could be tremendous. Any savings in weight leads to cheaper flights.

      --
      "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"

      - Charles Darwin
    6. Re:Hey hey, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      You don't want "modern computers" if you have proven, reliable, working older technology.

      In all likelyhood, the newest computer system with deep-space certification (radiation hardening, etc) would be a 386 or 486.

      Most shuttle flights in the last ten years have taken "modern" laptops for scientific uses. The flight computers have worked perfectly well for over twenty years. The only reason to even think about replacing them is the availability of replacement parts--and it may very well be cheaper to reproduce parts than to spaceflight certify a new computer system.

      JD

    7. Re:Hey hey, by mikerich · · Score: 4, Insightful
      But the computers are a tiny proportion of the Shuttle's weight.

      The advantage of the Shuttle's computers are that they've been round since the late 1960s, their design has been thoroughly debugged as have the programming tools used to write their code AND the code itself.

      The Shuttle code is widely regarded as some of the best programming ever completed.

      Throw the Shuttle computers away and you lose all those hard-won achievements.

      Best wishes,
      Mike.

    8. Re:Hey hey, by spoonist · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      THIS is their space anti-piracy task force.

    9. Re:Hey hey, by Atzanteol · · Score: 1

      Sure, I didn't say there were no reasons to keep the existing systems. Just one of the benefits from upgrading the system. At some point we're going to *have* to accept that the existing shuttles will be discarded and replaced. They can't last forever. There will be mistakes made, people will likely die. But that's always been the price 'man' has paid for exploration.

      --
      "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"

      - Charles Darwin
    10. Re:Hey hey, by vidnet · · Score: 1, Offtopic

      Couldn't they just climb the cable to the cable TV?

    11. Re:Hey hey, by f16c · · Score: 2, Insightful

      >

      The problem with this is that the machines will have to be repalced at some point. The MTU (Master Timing Unit) designed by Westinghouse in the seventies was still being used as late as 1993. It was in need of a redesign then because the oscillator used was getting scarce. I have no idea if the thing is still being used but NASA better design a replacement very soon. Half of the parts used in the thing can't be had for love or money. Obsolete technology can be a danger on it's own if it's a critical item to be maintained.

      --
      bob@Osprey:~>
    12. Re:Hey hey, by Nucleon500 · · Score: 1

      It ain't broke, it just lacks duct tape!

    13. Re:Hey hey, by BigFootApe · · Score: 1
      As long as the new space shuttles have some modern computers on board (as opposed to the dated ones on the current shuttles) and the re-entry tiles are properly glued on, then the new shuttles will be just spiffy.

      Glue, or a patch kit.

      Seriously, I remember reading in an old edition of National Geo. about a kit of goop that shuttle astronauts could fill in any missing tiles with. It was designed to counteract just the scenario that downed Columbia.

      How hard would it have been to do a slow roll before leaving the ISS, have those guys take some shots of the belly of Columbia, then have some of the guys at Houston do a visual check of the thermal shiedling. If a patch kit were standard equipment, it could then be utilized if any problem spots are observed.

      As motown learned from Inaki Lopez, sometimes when you sqeeze out a penny, you lose a buck.
    14. Re:Hey hey, by ColaMan · · Score: 1

      How hard would it have been to do a slow roll before leaving the ISS, have those guys take some shots of the belly of Columbia, then have some of the guys at Houston do a visual check of the thermal shiedling

      Er, they didn't go to the ISS, they were in a completely different orbit. But still , you'd think *someone* coulda suited up and had a look.
      Even if they couldn't repair it, they could have then had a chance to say goodbye to their family before trying a (now known to be suicidal) reentry.

      --

      You are in a twisty maze of processor lines, all alike.
      There is a lot of hype here.
    15. Re:Hey hey, by shadowjk · · Score: 1

      I thought the main reason for using older CPU's was that they're infact the newest ones that are shielded from the higher radiation enviroment in space?

      Maybe this is just an Urban Legend, since Astronauts seem to be taking standard laptops with them these days...

    16. Re:Hey hey, by cyclist1200 · · Score: 1

      Actually, nearly every proposed idea eliminated the tiles in favor of newer technologies.

    17. Re:Hey hey, by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      Gaffer's tape. Stronger, better, but not cheaper.

  3. Something must be wrong... by HaloZero · · Score: 4, Funny

    ...I don't see a saucer-section, or anything of the sort. What kinda 'Next-Generation' is this, anyway?

    I swear to God, though, if they make a mock up of this one, call it 'Enterprise', and try to pretend like it was actually made before the first shuttle Enterprise , I'll shoot someone.

    --
    Informatus Technologicus
    1. Re:Something must be wrong... by Lord_Slepnir · · Score: 2, Funny

      You won't have to. The pile of lawsuits from Rick Berman will make them want to shoot themselves.

    2. Re:Something must be wrong... by Uber+Banker · · Score: 2, Interesting

      haha!

      I was thinking about momentum and launching... why not get something really really really heavy to move at a moderate speed (could be through some environmentally friendly means, possibly a mag-lev to minimise friction. This heavy objects then hits the light shuttle, propelling it over some runway at fantastic speeds into orbit (could be in a vacuum tube for some time).

      Maybe the Gs will be too much for a manned flight above... so how about bombarding a capsule with neutrons or something through a launch tude?

      The idea of a rocket for regular flights is just so... flawed and wasteful.

      All above ideas are governed be me... source is available but compilation (or building them!) is copyrighted!!!

      Damn, now if i can just find something really really heavy!

    3. Re:Something must be wrong... by shadowj · · Score: 5, Interesting
      Why not go even further and blow up nuclear bombs behind the thing? That'll sure give it a push.

      Oh, wait, it's been done... it's called Project Orion .

      Or we could do something even more efficient... throw stuff out the back at high speed and let the reaction provide propulsion. Hell, if you can throw it fast enough, it doesn't have to be heavy...

      Oh, wait... that's been done, too. It's called a rocket.

      Seriously, though, why do you say a rocket is "flawed and wasteful"? What makes you think that throwing rocks at a spacecraft would work better (or at all)? Have you done any math to substantiate it? Is it, just maybe, possible that all those rocket scientists might know what they're doing?

      --

      --Larry

      Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence

    4. Re:Something must be wrong... by Uber+Banker · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, I agree rockets are damn good at their job of being very good at moving something very fast.

      But a single space launch uses a hell of a lot of fuel and creates a lot of pollution - this is not sustainable.

      Yes, rocket propulsion is efficient in a chemical-kinetic energy transfer way, but not efficient if all other costs are taken into account. Use geo-thermal energy to power such a mag-lev launcher thing... I find that preferable.

      Save rockets for the last resort. Yes they are good at a quick effective solution... but multiple space launches a day (manned or unmanned but something IMHO, necessary for more than the minor interest we have in space now)... rockets no longer become the best option.

    5. Re:Something must be wrong... by istewart · · Score: 1

      Just being contacted by Rick Berman will make them want to shoot themselves.

      (Especially if he sends them an autographed copy of that goofy photo of him standing in front of the warp core of the Enterprise-D.)

    6. Re:Something must be wrong... by Planesdragon · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Save rockets for the last resort. Yes they are good at a quick effective solution... but multiple space launches a day (manned or unmanned but something IMHO, necessary for more than the minor interest we have in space now)... rockets no longer become the best option.

      Rockets aren't just a "good" solution. They're the ONLY solution we have for getting into space. (And, FWIW, they don't even have to make that much pollution--if the shuttle didn't have to be a heavy-lifter it could ditch the boosters, and run purely on a relatively clean peroxide or H20 combination.)

      Most other proposed projects are about as feasible as bullets. Among other problems with "power on the ground" systems (pollution, overly expensive precision) you set yourself to one launch system--and with the costs needed to get that much energy into a transferrable form (ignoring the probably inefficiencies), it just doesn't make sense.

      Now, two-stage jet-and-rocket designs make sense--they just haven't quite gotten there yet.

      Oh, and about the Soyuz--it's great, but only if you can limit yourself to its three-person crew, and don't have to haul anything.

    7. Re:Something must be wrong... by spaic · · Score: 1

      They know what their doing today, but they don't know how future space travel will look.

      Why carry a megaton of stone and a device to throw them when you could build a spaceship one megaton lighter and trow half the amount of stones from the ground? A reasonable idea, will it work? we don't know.

      To find the future of space travel you need to be openminded.

    8. Re:Something must be wrong... by Thing+1 · · Score: 2, Informative
      Yes, rocket propulsion is efficient in a chemical-kinetic energy transfer way, but not efficient if all other costs are taken into account. Use geo-thermal energy to power such a mag-lev launcher thing... I find that preferable.

      While I was reading about the Space Elevator , I came across a neat article about something very similar to what you want.

      It was a horizontal platform, very tall (kilometers?), looking like a series of "A"s, with a track running from the top of each "A" to the next. It would use electromagnets to generate thrust down the track, and the payload would achieve escape velocity by the time it reached the end.

      After several minutes of Googling I couldn't find the link. Sorry 'bout that. Perhaps someone else recalls it?

      --
      I feel fantastic, and I'm still alive.
    9. Re:Something must be wrong... by Cyberdyne · · Score: 3, Insightful
      But a single space launch uses a hell of a lot of fuel and creates a lot of pollution - this is not sustainable.

      The present shuttle's main engines burn hydrogen + oxygen --> H2O. The "pollution" in question is... WATER!

      Admittedly, the solid rocket boosters use ammonium perchlorate and aluminum, which does produce nastier stuff - but they're replaced with more liquid fueled rockets in all the proposed shuttle replacements, too.

      Yes, rocket propulsion is efficient in a chemical-kinetic energy transfer way, but not efficient if all other costs are taken into account. Use geo-thermal energy to power such a mag-lev launcher thing... I find that preferable.

      Why? It can't be cleaner environmentally, and I very much doubt you could build such a "mag-lev launcher thing": for starters, a vehicle accelerating along a maglev track to escape velocity would require either insane lengths of track (on a Great Wall of China scale) or acceleration which would pulp the occupants. A rocket, meanwhile, can give a reasonable acceleration throughout the climb to orbit - spreading the acceleration out over a few minutes.

      A space elevator might one day be a feasible approach. Maglev won't, unless/until you find a way to project the magnetic field a few hundred miles away from the ground equipment producing it...

    10. Re:Something must be wrong... by dachshund · · Score: 1
      The present shuttle's main engines burn hydrogen + oxygen --> H2O. The "pollution" in question is... WATER!

      How much oil/coal/plutonium do you have to go through in order to produce the tons of hydrogen and oxygen used by the main engines in a single launch?

      The best solution will be some sort of ramjet-powered passenger vehicle. It won't necessarily help with satellite launches, but it would help reduce the costs of manned flights. Of course, that technology isn't ready for prime time, but it will be eventually (at this rate, probably before NASA gets around to selecting a replacement.)

    11. Re:Something must be wrong... by Cyberdyne · · Score: 1
      How much oil/coal/plutonium do you have to go through in order to produce the tons of hydrogen and oxygen used by the main engines in a single launch?

      "Have to"? None! (It can all be done with solar or wind power.) Right now, ISTR it's supplied by a specialist contractor who probably use regular grid electricity - which they could buy from someone like Green Mountain (who offer electricity in Texas generated exclusively from wind + hydro schemes). Using renewables to convert water into a totally clean-burning fuel is about as clean as it gets ;-)

      Do they do it like that? Probably not, but it's possible.

      The best solution will be some sort of ramjet-powered passenger vehicle. It won't necessarily help with satellite launches, but it would help reduce the costs of manned flights. Of course, that technology isn't ready for prime time, but it will be eventually (at this rate, probably before NASA gets around to selecting a replacement.)

      It might get there one day, but in the mean time the Shuttle's present engines do just about the best you can expect, environmentally as well as fiscally.

    12. Re:Something must be wrong... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      Using renewables to convert water into a totally clean-burning fuel is about as clean as it gets ;-) Do they do it like that? Probably not, but it's possible.

      A lot of things are possible. A similar argument to yours is that we needn't worry about making energy-efficient electronic devices, because we could conceivably generate more solar/wind/hydro power.

      Furthermore, most liquid hydrogen comes from hydrocarbons, not direct cracking of water. Doing it with electricity and water is possible, but requires even more juice.

    13. Re:Something must be wrong... by Cyberdyne · · Score: 1
      A lot of things are possible. A similar argument to yours is that we needn't worry about making energy-efficient electronic devices, because we could conceivably generate more solar/wind/hydro power.

      No. I wasn't trying to claim "the shuttle's inefficient, but that's OK because it's clean" - I was pointing out that the present engines are both clean and efficient. Some future ramjet vehicle might theoretically be more efficient; right now, the small detail of not existing makes any comparison quite difficult ;-)

      Furthermore, most liquid hydrogen comes from hydrocarbons, not direct cracking of water. Doing it with electricity and water is possible, but requires even more juice.

      OK, so the supplier might be generating some pollution at present. Will those ramjets be hydrogen burning...? (If you're going to compare hypothetical engines, I'll use hypothetical sources of hydrogen :P)

    14. Re:Something must be wrong... by mfrank · · Score: 1

      The "power on the ground" systems (laser, microwave) have conversion inefficiencies, but that's more than compensated by the much higher specific impulse that is possible. This drastically lowers the amount of fuel needed, especially if they can be air-breathing through most of the trip (you don't have the ignition problems when you're heating air with EM energy).

      As far as limiting to one launch system, that's pretty much what we have now with the shuttle, isn't it? Something goes wrong, you don't launch again for a few years?

      If they put a tenth of the money into developing laser/microwave launch systems as they've done with rockets, we'd have hotels on the moon in a decade.

      Limiting yourself to chemical rockets, you have a hard limit on the mass/fuel ratio. Going with laser/microwave opens up a lot of possibilities.

      The main barriers to laser/microwave systems are:
      1) People wouldn't want to be near the launch site
      2) No military spinoff (except lower satellite launch costs).
      3) Most of the design would be on the ground system; the vehicle would be fairly simple. The big aerospace companies would pay their senators good money for a rocket replacement for the shuttle.

    15. Re:Something must be wrong... by Planesdragon · · Score: 1

      As far as limiting to one launch system, that's pretty much what we have now with the shuttle, isn't it? Something goes wrong, you don't launch again for a few years?

      We're discussing rockets, not the shuttle. Essentially the same system can be used for most of our rockets, with only the absolutely necessary changes being made. (And the shuttle crawler, FWIW, could hypothetically be retrofited to launch heavy-carrier rockets, multi-launch small craft, or just hauling stuff around.)

      The main barriers to laser/microwave systems are:
      1) People wouldn't want to be near the launch site


      People don't want to live near the SHUTTLE launch sight--well, not that near, anyway. (Maybe you meant "has a larger restricted zone on the ground", which would be an annoying problem.)

      2) No military spinoff (except lower satellite launch costs).

      I disagree with this one. I have great confidence in the ability of my military to take any technological advancement and find a way to make it reassure the USA's superpower status. (Think ICBMs, but on a much smaller, convential scale--we could launch cruise missiles from Florida and hit N. Korea!)

      3) Most of the design would be on the ground system; the vehicle would be fairly simple. The big aerospace companies would pay their senators good money for a rocket replacement for the shuttle.

      The big aerospace companies can dance almost as well as Microsoft--if a viable tech were invented, they'd lap it up and put it to use to beat their competition to the ground.

    16. Re:Something must be wrong... by mikeblan · · Score: 1

      LMFAO! As long as there in no event Horizon with the Borg it will be OK

    17. Re:Something must be wrong... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      well, even NASA themselves say that rockets are grossly inefficient, not to mention every physics book written since rockets were invented. They'd be using other methods if they could. The only reason we are not using nuclear propulsion right now is for solely political reasons, namely that there would be a substantial portion of the population that would be against it.

      I cannot believe your ignorant post got a 5.

  4. New space shuttle by Sophrosyne · · Score: 0, Flamebait


    Will this save lives? probably...
    Will it save Nasa....
    ..no

  5. Simple explanation why there is no new shuttle. by Krapangor · · Score: 0, Troll
    The space shuttle is basically the product of a technological penis length contest between the US and Soviet Russia.
    Ironically both sides managed only to get the half project done - they wanted a space station (SU got that) with a high tech shuttle system (US got that). Don't mention Buran here - the Russian admitted themselves that they just copied the shuttle.

    However the cold war is gone and the US is the only super power left. There are some on the rise - China, EU, Islam - , but it will take some time until the got the super power status.
    So there is no need to show the own and forgein people that the US has indeed the biggest dick.
    If someone doesn't believe this, hey, we can just invade them !
    So NASA is in bad luck for some time now.
    If they are really clever (but moralically perverted) they would sponsor the education of Chinese/EU PhD students got shorted the period of unchallenged US dominance.

    --
    Owner of a Mensa membership card.
    1. Re:Simple explanation why there is no new shuttle. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mark the parent +1 Re-gawddamn-tarted. Islam as a superpower? EU as a superpower? The US never had a space station?

    2. Re:Simple explanation why there is no new shuttle. by Bold+Marauder · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Point 1: skylab
      Point 2: Islam isn't a superpower; it's a religion that spans a wide variety of implementations; from mild/tolerant to the fanatical.

    3. Re:Simple explanation why there is no new shuttle. by dammy · · Score: 1

      Actually, Islam controls Iran since it's a theocracy. Given Iran is working on superpower status with nuclear technology, it may soon be a super power via nuclear weapons.

      But, I still think NASA should NOT get the funding for the follow on Shuttle program. I much rather see my hard earned tax dollars go to corporate attempts to commercialize cheap access into space.

      Let's look on what worked and did not work in history of aerospace and aeronautics.

      Civil Aeronautic Authority/Civil Aeronautic Board (forerunner of the FAA) did NOT design and flew their own airplanes to promote aviation. They let private industry do that by offering air mail contracts. When they (US Congress on behalf the PostMaster General) took back the Air Mail Contracts and made the US Army fly the Air Mail, it was an absolute disaster at the cost of too many US Airman lives. It was such a huge disaster, Congress put a halt to the US Army flying Air Mail and went back to private industry.

      This should be a PRIME example on what has worked well and what disaster it can be with the US government handling everything.

      Dammy

    4. Re:Simple explanation why there is no new shuttle. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Actually, Islam controls Iran since it's a theocracy. Given Iran is working on superpower status with nuclear technology, it may soon be a super power via nuclear weapons"

      Thats a good one. Whose money says "In God we trust"; not a superpower's by any chance? Does that make Christianity a superpower? Or does it make the US a superpower? After listening to GWB, Christianity and the US seem to be synonymous, so you may have a point.

      It may interest you to know that Pakistan, which is an Islamic country (one of the reasons it separated from India), already has nuclear weapons. In case you weren't aware, Pakistan is ruled by a military dictatorship which siezed power during the last elections and has the full support of the fighting-for-democracy-good-ol' US of A.

      India also has nuclear weapons; does this make Hindu a superpower? Does China's arsenal confer superpower status upon Bhuddism or Taoism? And let's not forget that the Russian Orthodox church has a large stockpile....

    5. Re:Simple explanation why there is no new shuttle. by mfrank · · Score: 1

      Actually, after the military coup in Pakistan they were on the US shiite list, and were hurting pretty badly because of the resulting sanctions.

      The US lifted the sanctions after 9/11 in order to get military access to Afghanistan.

      Taking your argument to its obvious conclusion, you probably think the US should have imposed sanctions on the Soviet Union in WWII instead of given them aid. Realpolitik has the word "real" in it for a reason.

    6. Re:Simple explanation why there is no new shuttle. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In this case, the amalgam of Arab/Islamic states is one of the rising socio-political forces today. "Superpowers" don't necessarily need to be self-contained nation-states do they? "Superpower" status isn't necessarily a military thing either. Hence the EU and China (probably more like East Asia) are also emerging "superpowers" for economic and technological reasons (although China would like to believe for the old-fashioned military reasons, too).

    7. Re:Simple explanation why there is no new shuttle. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Same way that Jews are considered a "race" even though the only common thread is their religion.

    8. Re:Simple explanation why there is no new shuttle. by jericho4.0 · · Score: 1

      A nuke does not a superpower make.

      --
      "A language that doesn't affect the way you think about programming, is not worth knowing" - Alan Perlis
  6. Do they think out of the box? by MyNameIsFred · · Score: 4, Interesting

    My question is if they need to think out of the box, particularly for the manned portion. I wonder if it might be better to go with the Mercury-Gemini-Apollo-Soyuz technology. Forget wings. Come back on retrorockets and parachutes. Focus the reusable technology on the boosters and other rockets.

    1. Re:Do they think out of the box? by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They should just license the Soyuz from the Russians and launch them from Florida. They cost something like $20 million per launch, and they are probably the most reliable and cost-effective launch system in existence. The article mentions a $6 billion low-end limit on developing a new shuttle. That would pay for 300 Soyuz launches without even factoring in a per-launch cost for the shuttle. But of course, this will never happen due to the NIH factor.

    2. Re:Do they think out of the box? by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1
      It's more than just NIH; if NASA buys Soyuz from the Ruskies, then they've spent American tax dollars on Russian hardware, and the money will create multiple jobs in Russia, rather than jobs in America. Basically, America becomes slightly less prosperous, but the effect is tiny (the proportion of tax dollars that goes to NASA is minute, compared to the overall budget).

      Of course the fact that they don't do this, makes NASA a monopoly and gives it completely no incentive to clean up it's act; so in the long run, America in general, and American space in particular, is worse off.

      Still, Boeing's SeaLaunch has pretty much done this. It doesn't look like a wild success at the moment, but it will hopefully improve.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    3. Re:Do they think out of the box? by oh2 · · Score: 2, Informative

      I agree. Or maybe the Shuttle-C technology could be used ? Massively efficient and proven and relatively cheap since there is no big orbiter. If you want people up there, stick an apollo capsule on top.

      --

      Now the world has gone to bed, Darkness won't engulf my head, I can see by infra-red, How I hate the night.

    4. Re:Do they think out of the box? by Naelphin · · Score: 1

      I like this proposal, what is the official reason why reusable craft are so much better than craft like the soyuz?

      I don't live in the US so the reasons why someone would prefer a big, expensive thing that only works twice a year over something cheap that is launchable many times more if the money spent on the replacement?

  7. The space program... by Atrophis · · Score: 5, Insightful

    is one of the few places where I don't mind seeing my tax money used more often. Its a shame more money can't be dedicated to this field of research. A new reusable space shuttle that dosent require expendable fuel tanks or boosters would be a big benifit.

    --

    i cant seem to come up with a sig.
    1. Re:The space program... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Sadly, it's one of the places that your tax dollars are least likely to go.

      I suggest that everyone who is concerned about NASA and it's funding simply write a letter -hell, even a postcard- to your congress critters and senators when they first get into office, telling them what you want YOUR Tax Dollars to fund, exactly. In this case, NASA.

    2. Re:The space program... by Elderly+Isaac · · Score: 2, Insightful

      While I agree that NASA needs more money, it doesn't help that the agency is so financially irresponsible with the money it does get. Cost overruns (and having to explain them to Congress) are bad news, and gross cost overruns have become the norm for NASA's biggest projects. The article itself chastises NASA for its poor budget forecasting ("It's the Accounting, Stupid"). Until they get on the right track financially, getting more money out of Congress is an uphill battle.

      --

      Care to be asshole buddies?
    3. Re:The space program... by sapped · · Score: 1

      A new reusable space shuttle that dosent require expendable fuel tanks or boosters would be a big benifit

      Maybe we should throw a few dollars towards education first? Hmmm?

    4. Re:The space program... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, because health, education, welfare, defence and public services are just optional extras.

    5. Re:The space program... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      why waste money trying to get off of Earth when we have problems on this planet that need to be taken care of? Do you realize the size of NASA's annual budget? Do you realize what we could do with that money instead? The space program produces zero benefits that are actually useful. If anything we lose money because of the cost of the satellites that are lost and the cost for the personnel for just launches is tremendous.

    6. Re:The space program... by rleibman · · Score: 1

      is one of the few places where I don't mind seeing my tax money used more often.

      And that, my friend, is the problem.
      Everyone has *one* program where they don't mind their tax money being used more often, add it all up and we end up with this huge multi-trillion dollar budgets with multi-billion dollar deficits.
      Would you be willing to forgo your "favorite program" if it meant greater freedom, more money in your pocket, smaller government?...I would!
      As much as I like space exploration, I believe strongly that the private sector could do a much better job at it.

    7. Re:The space program... by Atrophis · · Score: 1

      I dont disagree that the private sector could do it a lot better, but the private sector needs a reason too first. i.e. "nasa finds cure to cancer on mars!"

      -- now how quick do you think the pharmaceutical companys would be trying to get there?

      and it would be government funding to get at least that far. without a good payoff, companys(sp) are not even going to look at it.

      --

      i cant seem to come up with a sig.
    8. Re:The space program... by rleibman · · Score: 1

      So, what you are saying is: it doesn't make sense to go there, so we should let goverment do it, after all, they are experts at doing things that don't make sense.
      OK, there are reasons other than financial for going to space, including basic science and the multitude of technologies that development of aerospace spurs, but even that is better handled by private industry.

  8. HOTOL - the unrealised 1980s alternative by WIAKywbfatw · · Score: 5, Informative

    A viable alternative to the shuttle was on the drawing board as far back as the late 1980s. HOTOL (Horizontal Take-Off and Landing), similar in appearance to current generation supersonic aircraft was designed by British rocket veteran Alan Bond.

    Unfortunately, as soon as Bond had designed the revolutionary air-breathing engine that the project was based on, it was classified by the British government. Score one for stupid politics. So, perhaps the best rocketry engine designed never got built.

    Later, HOTOL variants and derivatives were proposed, including an Anglo-Russian project called Interim HOTOL.

    Here are a few related links to check out, most of which contain illustrations of what the orbiter would have looked like:

    HOTOL
    HOTOL and Interim HOTOL
    Wikipedia entry for HOTOL

    Google search for "HOTOL"

    Of course, HOTOL and HOTOL-derived orbiters are still a viable alternative today. Air-breathing engines seem to be the logical next step.

    --

    "Accept that some days you are the pigeon, and some days you are the statue." - David Brent, Wernham Hogg
    1. Re:HOTOL - the unrealised 1980s alternative by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Weird how for planes, VTOL is a big thing while for shuttles it's HOTOL.

    2. Re:HOTOL - the unrealised 1980s alternative by the_2nd_coming · · Score: 1

      yeah taht is why the brit governmnet sucks. the4y can take any private ideas and classify them. why the hell are they not declassified for use today?

      --



      I am the Alpha and the Omega-3
    3. Re:HOTOL - the unrealised 1980s alternative by Spudley · · Score: 1

      yeah taht is why the brit governmnet sucks. the4y can take any private ideas and classify them. why the hell are they not declassified for use today?

      Concorde's technology also got classified, but that didn't stop them building it and making a success of it.

      Besides, this is the '80s we're talking about - people were still paranoid about espionage back then.

      Anyway assuming the law doesn't change, it'll all get declassified automatically in another 20-odd years, thanks to the "30-year rule". (though it might be somewhat academic by then)

      --
      (Spudley Strikes Again!)
    4. Re:HOTOL - the unrealised 1980s alternative by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 2, Interesting
      I don't think that's what killed HOTOL. Quite a bit of it is in the public domain.

      The main thing that killed it, was the projected development cost- around $20 billion or more (and I think these are 1980 prices). The engines look like they would be really expensive to design, and they are the heart of the vehicle. Basically, he couldn't find anyone to fund it.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    5. Re:HOTOL - the unrealised 1980s alternative by mikerich · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Development costs were one of the big things that killed HOTOL. They could have been covered by ESA - however, the Thatcher government was at best luke-warm and at worst antipathetic to space. They chose to opt out of a number of key ESA programmes which meant that ESA would not have backed a British-based effort.

      Best wishes,
      Mike.

    6. Re:HOTOL - the unrealised 1980s alternative by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1

      Yes, well, as a rule of thumb, european money only goes back to the country that invested it anyway (same thing happens with NASA), so I doubt it would have made that much difference.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    7. Re:HOTOL - the unrealised 1980s alternative by delibes · · Score: 1

      The problem with air-breathing propulsion at high speeds is that to get thrust you need to take the incoming air and squirt it out the back hotter and faster than it came in. When the air is already moving at (say) 6+ times the speed of sound (SCRAMJETs), it's not actually easy to get the fuel to burn well enough to provide the thrust you want.

      If there was something clever and easy that was better than a conventional rocket, I'm confident someone would do it already. Things like aerospikes could actually be pioneered in India and the far east. These improvements may only add a few % specific impulse, but on a launch cost of $100 million+ that's going to count.

      You can also get more efficient (i.e. needs less fuel mass at launch, or allows more cargo) rockets if you use some funny propellants; hydrides of boron, berrylium, lithium, aluminium and the like, reacting with fluorine for example. But the fuel's very nasty to handle, which pushes up other costs.

      --
      This is not a sig
  9. Hmm by B3ryllium · · Score: 5, Informative

    I wouldn't exactly call the existing space shuttles "disaster prone".

    They've flown for 22 years. Imagine what the mileage is? Somewhere in the millions, maybe even billions.

    Only two out of five have failed.

    I would only concede the disaster-prone point when considering that the astronauts lives were lost; that's certainly a little more impactful than a bunch of drunken teenagers totalling a car, right? But even then, the shuttles themselves are not disaster-prone; it's just that any slight mishap is instantly promoted to National Disaster and Mourning Period status.

    The person's point above, that the shuttle's computers are outdated, is partially true - but they are entirely adequate for running the onboard software. When you're developing a system like the shuttle, you simply cannot use the latest technology. It has to be military-certified for mission critical systems, and it has to go through about two years of testing to acheive that status. That point was made in the article, that once you "freeze" development, that's what you're stuck with.

    The shuttles work as they were designed.

    The problem is that NASA made them too high-maintenance.

    I fully agree with the article's point, that an automated human escape mechanism is required in reusable space flight vehicles. Heck, even Star Trek has escape pods.

    1. Re:Hmm by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "The problem is that NASA made them too high-maintenance."

      No. The problem is the 1970s technology made them too high maintenance.

      NASA and the contractors made some bad decisions in reguards to the heat shielding and SRBs that NASA is paying for now.

    2. Re:Hmm by steveha · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Only two out of five have failed.

      Official NASA documents estimated that you should be able to fly the shuttle 10,000 times before you lost one ("five nines reliability"). The reality is much closer to 100 times (two nines). This is very poor. If airplanes would kill you one time in a hundred, I sure wouldn't want to fly on an airplane... and there is nothing inherent to space operations which justifies the poor record of the shuttle.

      We need to replace it with something safer, and that is possible.

      steveha

      --
      lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
    3. Re:Hmm by SN74S181 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They've flown for 22 years. Imagine what the mileage is? Somewhere in the millions, maybe even billions.

      Each shuttle launch is ten miles up, and then ten miles down. The rest is just coasting. So the mileage is in the thousands, not anywhere close to the millions.

    4. Re:Hmm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "They've flown for 22 years. Imagine what the mileage is? Somewhere in the millions, maybe even billions."

      Takeoff and landing are the most dangerous moments during the flight, thus mileage is quite irrelevant.

      "Only two out of five have failed."

      With only 113(?) flights made. Imagine what would happen if airplanes would crash every 50 flights, dozens of planes would be destroyed daily.

    5. Re:Hmm by arthurh3535 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well, except that Space is much more dangerous than flying around in the air. It's magnitudes more difficult *and* dangerous!

      As an example, please build a rocket car that can go 10 times as fast as a normal car but you want it to run on a normal dirt road.

      There's nothing technically impossible about it, but boy it would take a lot of work and effort.

      And I'd bet that you killed an awful lot of people to do it! :)

      --
      No! It's a *SIG*. Keep the Special Interest Groups away! (Con joke!)
    6. Re:Hmm by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 2, Informative

      I know it's bad to reply to one's self, but here I go.

      I came to my conclusions about the STS problems from reading Dennis R. Jenkins's Space Shuttle: The History of the National Space Transportation System: The First 100 Missions and T. A. Heppenheimer's two volume History of the Space Shuttle - Space Shuttle Decision and Development of the Space Shuttle.

      If you read one book on the Shuttle's history, read Jenkin's book.

    7. Re:Hmm by Dinosaur+Neil · · Score: 2, Informative

      Only two out of five have failed.

      Not quite. Yes, only two out of five have failed (that's 20% of the fleet) in 22 years. But thats two out of 107 flights. That's slightly less than a 2% catastrophic failure rate. If commercial airlines failed at that rate, we'd have to have a couple dedicated news channels just to handle the crash coverage for the dozen per day per major airport.

      The sad truth that is starting to bubble to the surface is that the shuttle was simumtaneously the only way NASA could survive the budget cutbacks of the 70's and an unbreakable hobble on efforts to actually exploit outer space. The whole re-usable scam meant that the NASA budget could only be cut so far before killing a very visible and popular program. But it also meant that we (as a nation and/or planet) have been constrained to Low-Earth orbit for twenty fscking years. The shuttle was designed by committee to do a little bit of everything, but unfortunately, engineering limitations left it doing everything poorly. The shuttle is another example of the classic dollar auction spinning wildly out of control. It is disaster prone, and it's time to look at it honestly before it kills the space program entirely.

      --
      "I'm a scientist! I don't think, I observe!" - Dr. Clayton Forrester
    8. Re:Hmm by facelessnumber · · Score: 1

      Only two out of five have failed.

      Two out of six...
      Atlantis, Discovery, Enterprise, Endeavor, Challenger and Columbia.

    9. Re:Hmm by Lershac · · Score: 0
      and there is nothing inherent to space operations which justifies the poor record of the shuttle

      Are you on crack? For homework, go calculate the difference in kinetic energy between the shuttle at cruising speed and an airplane. Higher kinetic energy levels automatically increase risk, as the slightest misstep could cause the release of all that kinetic energy into heat, death, etc. Come on!

      --
      Chuck
    10. Re:Hmm by Cyberdyne · · Score: 1
      Two out of six...

      Atlantis, Discovery, Enterprise, Endeavor, Challenger and Columbia.

      Technically correct - Enterprise, OV-101, is listed as being a "space shuttle" - but is not equipped for orbital flight: it was purely a test vehicle, for testing the adapted 747 shuttle transporter's characteristics, and practising landings at a dry lake bed and Edwards AFB. (It's now owned by the Smithsonian as an exhibit.) Only the other 5 you list have been into orbit, with the original two now listed as being "retired"; Endeavour was ordered in 1987 as a replacement for Challenger, but incorporates a crew module built in 1982.

      Trivia for you: Enterprise was originally supposed to be named Constitution, but a letter-writing campaign by Trek fans convinced the government to change it...

    11. Re:Hmm by thebigmacd · · Score: 1

      It's called rallying! :)

    12. Re:Hmm by Dinosaur+Neil · · Score: 1

      Whoops, stupid math error: that's 40% of the fleet...

      --
      "I'm a scientist! I don't think, I observe!" - Dr. Clayton Forrester
    13. Re:Hmm by Unregistered · · Score: 1

      1 in 50 flights fails. If 1 in 50 airplane flights failed, you wouldn't want to leave your bomb shelter for fear of falling planes.
      if 1 in 50 trips in a car failed you'd be dead. Long dead

    14. Re:Hmm by StarFog · · Score: 2, Insightful

      We've lost 2 out of 5 shuttles due to problems stemming from the expendable launch boosters, not the reusable shuttles. True the Columbia did fail on re-entry, but it is highly likely it would have survived had large pieces of insulation been falling off the expendable fuel tank. The shuttle still works the way it was designed. It just wasn't deigned to have it's booster engines explode on it, or have large objects collide with the wings. So the failure rate of the shuttle itself is fairly good, it just couldn't survive a couple extreme situations that either were impossible to avoid or not enough precautions to avoid had been implemented.

      --
      Ninjas, they make anything better
    15. Re:Hmm by steveha · · Score: 1

      Well, except that Space is much more dangerous than flying around in the air. It's magnitudes more difficult *and* dangerous!

      It's not as hard as you think.

      A rocket is a fundamentally simple device. You have fuel tanks, some sort of pump, and a reaction chamber. There is no reason to think that all space vehicles will be tremendously unsafe like the shuttle.

      You can always increase risk with stupid design, and I'm afraid that's what the shuttle did. Columbia broke up because of compromised thermal tiles; there is no way to fix tiles while in orbit, and the design of the shuttle is to come screaming down from orbit at huge speeds and finally land like a giant brick with wings. (And shuttle has no ability to fly past the landing point, swing round, and land on a second pass; it has to land in one pass with no mistakes allowed. Brilliant design.)

      It isn't all that hard to land under rocket power, using rockets to slow the descent to reasonable speeds, and then you don't run the risk of losing the spacecraft and all people on board because a few thermal tiles got damaged. And you can have enough extra rockets that if some malfunction, you can land with the others. And you can easily back off and come round again if something happens when you are trying to land.

      The key is to make redundancy and survivability the primary design goal, and to build prototypes and fly them to refine the design before you build your fleet. Shuttle was designed on paper, and there were no X-vehicle prototypes anywhere along the way. Stupid bits in the design stayed in.

      steveha

      --
      lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
    16. Re:Hmm by dlm3 · · Score: 1
      The problem is that NASA made them too high-maintenance.

      That they did - largely because they didn't know that the Shuttle would be the last vehicle they would build for thirty years. And not much has changed since then. NASA has done a fabulous job keeping these vehicles flying, but they have been totally unable to improve them significantly because of the risk involved in making a change to a proven, if complex vehicle. (except when prodded by catastrophic failures, unfortunately)

      Yet not a single SLI concept will ever become reality. Revolutionary change is too difficult unless somone other than NASA does it. An outside agency or corporation could build a brand-new vehicle, but NASA cannot. Not because it is incompetent, but because it is incapable of changing itself as an institution to accommodate the needs of a substantially different vehicle.

      It is capable of evolving over time, however. Therein lies hope for the future.

      I fully agree with the article's point, that an automated human escape mechanism is required in reusable space flight vehicles. Heck, even Star Trek has escape pods.

      This is all well and good, but it's heavy. A crew escape system was envisioned for the shuttle at the outset, but it could not tolerate the additional weight required to implement it. Little has changed in the last twenty years. Certainly physics has not.

      The better solution - still heavy - is to develop technologies that increase the overall reliability to the point that a crew escape system is redundant. You have neither ejection seats nor parachutes on a 777. None are needed because the probability of catastrophic failure is infinitesimal (you stand a better chance of getting hit by lightning).

      Get rid of the SRBs in favor of almost any liquid-fueled booster and you bump up flight safety considerably. Improve the TPS and you get another improvement. Attack the problem areas - including the ones that aren't as obvious as the above until you increase the reliability to at least that of a jet fighter (that does have ejection seats) or a helicopter (that does not). Making a vehicle as safe as a commercial jet transport would be the ultimate goal, but it is probably a long way off.

      IMHO, NASA will build another vehicle, sooner rather than later, and to the disappointment of many, it will more strongly resemble what we have today than any of the SLI pipe dreams you saw in this article. But a new vehicle will happen - that much is assured by the loss of Columbia. We can only hope that NASA applies the lessons of its experience with the current shuttle to future vehicles.

    17. Re:Hmm by ShinySteelRobot · · Score: 2, Interesting
      No. The problem is the 1970s technology made them too high maintenance.

      Not quite. Sure, there have been advances in computers, metallurgy, etc, in the interening years since the shuttle fleet was built. But the main problem was the short-sightedness of the Congressmen who controlled NASA's budget while the shuttle was being designed. The reason we wound up with a shuttle with so many shortcomings, problems, delays, etc, is largely due to Congress' having cut the shuttle development budget SEVEN TIMES during the Carter administration (as documented by a later government commission).

      Another problem is the politicized distribution of subcontractors for any major NASA undertaking. Pieces of large projects are distributed among contractors in as many states as possible. This ensures that every Congressman's state gets "a piece of the action". A good example is the construction of the solid rocket boosters in Utah. Because the boosters were made in Utah, they had to be built in sections (so they could then be shipped to Florida for launch). If the boosters had originally been built in Florida, the boosters could have simply been floated like barges from their construction site over to the Cape. There would have been no O-ring seals to fail, which is what ultimately doomed Challenger.

      The shuttle fleet we have now is definitely the result of subcontractor gerrymandering and repeated budget cuts. Even though it would have cost more up front to build an 'ideal' shuttle fleet (without solid rocket boosters, for example), we would have been better off in the long run. We would likely have saved some astronauts' lives, indirectly. And we wouldn't be faced with the prospect of scrapping the existing fleet to build the fleet we should have built in the first place.

    18. Re:Hmm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A rocket is a fundamentally simple device.

      This is true. The problem is not complicated design but extreme operating conditions: temperatures, pressure, acceleration, radiation etc. all at the same time! Especially temperature is a big problem because you can not easily scale a design to a higher temperature as you e.g. can do it for acceleration; you either have the appropriate materials for high temperature or you cannot implement your design.

      It isn't all that hard to land under rocket power, using rockets to slow the descent to reasonable speeds

      This takes insane amount of fuel. It would make the Shuttle a lot bigger.

    19. Re:Hmm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think a more reasonable figure would be operating time.

    20. Re:Hmm by steveha · · Score: 1

      [landing under rocket power] takes insane amount of fuel.

      Not so. By the time you are landing, the rocket is very light because the fuel tanks are nearly empty. It takes a lot of fuel to fight gravity and get into space, and when you land most of that fuel has been used up.

      The shuttle cannot and will not ever land under rocket power. But a future spacecraft, perhaps an SSTO one, can be designed to do it. And while I am not a rocket scientist, or even an insightful amateur, other people who have done the math say it's the right way to go.

      steveha

      --
      lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
    21. Re:Hmm by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      Which, I am forced to conclude, will be doomed from the start by political gerrymandering, and will get us no closer to the stars.

    22. Re:Hmm by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      What you forget is that politicians crippled the shuttle in the first place, and then in 1986 pressured a launch that ultimately doomed the Challenger. A launch that no engineer who built her SRB's wanted to happen, because they KNEW the likelihood of O-Ring blow-by was high.

      As for Columbia, we will likely find a politically motivated, but human-induced sequence of cover-ups, misconceptions, and plain old fashioned negligence killed her.

      None of which is related directly to orbiter performance. Both problems that have killed our space craft were well known and understood when they happened (presuming that the foam killed the tiles on Columbia, or course).

    23. Re:Hmm by steveha · · Score: 1

      No.

      The solid rocket boosters were an afterthought, hacked onto the shuttle when it turned out not to have enough thrust from the main engines. Any mishap with the solid rocket boosters is not survivable: if one fails, the unbalanced thrust from the other one dooms the shuttle. You cannot shut them off, you cannot jettison them until after they burn out on their own, you can't do anything with them but light them and hope they work right.

      Do you really think this is a good design?

      The shuttle is designed to come screaming down from orbit at huge speeds, then glide in to a really long landing on a really long landing strip. A thin layer of thermal tiles keeps it from burning up. There is no second layer of tiles behind the first layer as a backup. There is no way to repair a damaged tile in orbit. There is no way to abort a landing, fly around, and come back for a second attempt. Stresses on the landing gear are high, and if two tires blow you will damage the shuttle beyond repair.

      Do you really think this is a good design?

      What I would like to see is a simple design. It should be a single stage if possible, two stage if necessary. It will have one set of engines: the built-in rocket engines. It will use those same engines to take off, and to land. It will have enough engines that it can have multiple engine failures and still land safely. Landing under rocket power, it will not fly so fast it is in danger of burning up, it won't require a special extremely long runway, and it can abort a landing for any reason and come back around for a second landing attempt.

      As long as we keep flying the shuttle, I'd like to see liquid-fuelled rocket boosters. At least if you have a problem, you can shut the fuel pumps off and get both boosters to instantly shut down.

      steveha

      --
      lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
  10. nasa should focus more on next generation by the_2nd_coming · · Score: 1

    propultion systems that can power a single stage machine. then when they have that placing the new propuyltion on a space plane will be little effort.

    --



    I am the Alpha and the Omega-3
    1. Re:nasa should focus more on next generation by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      They did. X-33. It was killed by the current admin.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    2. Re:nasa should focus more on next generation by Elderly+Isaac · · Score: 2, Informative

      More accurately, NASA itself decided to give up on the project. In September 2000, the NASA Advisory Council recommended that X-33 be mothballed, with good reason. Upon its cancellation, the Space Access Society rejoiced, saying "the project was mis-specified, mis-selected, misdesigned, misdeveloped, and mismanaged, and its demise is long overdue." NASA decided to push the decision back to March 2001 on the remote hope that a new administration would give the project some new funding, because NASA itself didn't want to use any of the billions from the Space Launch Initiative (which was precisely designed to pay for such projects) on the doomed, bloated project.

      --

      Care to be asshole buddies?
    3. Re:nasa should focus more on next generation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They did. X-33. It was killed by the current admin.

      WTF? You stupid homo... NASA recommended that the project be terminated, it has nothing to do with who is in the White House.

  11. Doesn't make sense without large launch schedule by pfdietz · · Score: 3, Insightful

    As a rule of thumb, it doesn't make sense to design a new reusable or semireusable launch vehicle unless you're going to be using it at least 1000 times. Otherwise, the design costs don't get recouped. Realistically this means NASA is going to have to find enough payloads to launch one of these every week or so.

    At current launch rates, NASA should stick with expendable vehicles.

  12. No, but really! by Froze · · Score: 0

    I am really really curios about what happened to them. Because I really want to know what heppened to them!

    For the submission "...wondering about what happened to all those cool ideas for a new shuttle and what happened to them..."

    --
    -- The morphemes of your disquisition are ascertainable, but they have eschewed an ambit of transpicuous exposition.
  13. Reusable vehicles by sean23007 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Why is so absolutely necessary to have a fleet of reusable space vehicles? Wouldn't it be cheaper to build a simpler, cheaper, one-time-use vehicle that can be customized for each mission and then scrapped for parts upon landing? I mean, $500 million per launch is a lot, and reducing complexity and reusability requirements could probably go a long way toward reducing that. Why is "reusable" such a huge buzzword?

    --

    Lack of eloquence does not denote lack of intelligence, though they often coincide.
    1. Re:Reusable vehicles by Fastolfe · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's a matter of balancing the costs. If it's cheaper to build one vehicle and reuse it 100 times versus building 100 new vehicles, then a reusable vehicle is a better choice (all other factors being equal). As it stands today, the shuttle doesn't (as I recall) meet that requirement, which is why it only flies 4-5 times a year: for those missions where the shuttle has unique properties that make it the better choice.

      It's not necessary to have a reusable vehicle, but if it ends up being cheaper, market forces demand that it be developed.

    2. Re:Reusable vehicles by sean23007 · · Score: 1

      As a matter of curiosity, how many non-shuttle launches does NASA execute every year? I know everyone else uses one use rockets to launch, but how many times does NASA do that?

      --

      Lack of eloquence does not denote lack of intelligence, though they often coincide.
    3. Re:Reusable vehicles by halo8 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Some one did an excelent post last week (when that russian re-entry vechicle went off course)

      the russians dont have a reusable vehicle, and that because of that their saving 100's of millions of dollars over the US (original post had facts and figures)

      K.I.S.S
      Keep it simple stupid,
      instead of one vehicle with 3 backup systems.. why not just build 2 of them really really well?

      --
      The More Knowledge you have the Luckier you Get- J.R. Ewing
    4. Re:Reusable vehicles by sean23007 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Russia's Soyuz was the idea I had in mind when I posted. Strapped for cash, the Russian space program has had to find many ways to keep their systems as cheap as possible while at the same time competing with ours. The Soyuz saves them hundreds of millions of dollars, and it is a much safer system than our shuttle. Note that when the Soyuz has a problem it gets lost and they have to spend a few hours looking for it, whereas when the Shuttle has a problem it blows up.

      We should probably take a hint from the miserly Russians in this regard.

      --

      Lack of eloquence does not denote lack of intelligence, though they often coincide.
    5. Re:Reusable vehicles by Fastolfe · · Score: 2, Informative

      I don't know. The most recent one was the GALEX mission launched on a Pegasus XL on April 28th. The next disposable launch (the first of the new Mars rovers) atop a Delta II is scheduled for June 5th. They're not infrequent, and NASA certainly isn't ignoring the value of non-reusable launch systems.

    6. Re:Reusable vehicles by halo8 · · Score: 1

      i did a paper on NORAD, Star Wars, and the SDI a few years ago (+5) and they said that NORAD monitored 380 launches a year, (thats world wide, france, china, russia, korea ect.. )

      as for how many NASA launches? and how many the Airforce launches out of vandenburg.. thats a good question (one im to lazy to google for)

      also.. i think that %49.9 or %51.1 of the NASA budget comes out of the pentagons budget... so they can hush things up and what not.

      --
      The More Knowledge you have the Luckier you Get- J.R. Ewing
    7. Re:Reusable vehicles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      if it ends up being cheaper, market forces demand that it be developed.

      You do realize this is NASA your talking about...you know a government bureaucracy? what market forces will come to bear in this equation? IIRC not many payloads were comercial after the first few years nad for many years after, milkitary satalites keep the shuttle in the pink. In more recent years were were sending up gradeschool exparaments just to have somehting to do while in orbit for 3 days or so.

      Oh thats it--you mean school vouchers!

    8. Re:Reusable vehicles by Fastolfe · · Score: 1

      IIRC not many payloads were comercial after the first few years

      Because private industry found ways to do it cheaper, just like they will with a reusable solution some years down the road. The shuttle isn't even used for the bulk of NASA's launches anymore (if it ever was).

      You also make it sound like NASA is obligated to send the shuttle up, just to save face, and that grade school experiments are all they can find to do. This is just silly. If the astronauts can take a few minutes to do some "extra" science and make some kids happy, why not do that? Would you rather them just say no and read a book during their downtime instead? Why does this matter?

      What would you rather see? No more NASA? Do you realize there wouldn't be a space industry without NASA sinking the R&D funds to accomplish government goals first? Yes, leading edge technology is expensive, and if NASA (or anyone, really) believes that a reusable launch system can be cheaper in the long run, then I say let's investigate that. I don't really understand why so many people are opposed to this.

    9. Re:Reusable vehicles by Dirtside · · Score: 1
      Note that when the Soyuz has a problem it gets lost and they have to spend a few hours looking for it, whereas when the Shuttle has a problem it blows up.
      Not that there aren't examples of both these things happening recently, but come on, you can hardly pretend this is a general case -- like the only problem Soyuz ever has is going off-course, and the only problem the Shuttle ever has is blowing up.
      --
      "Destroy science and religion. Science would re-emerge exactly the same; but not religion." - Penn Jillette, paraphrased
    10. Re:Reusable vehicles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why is "reusable" such a huge buzzword?

      It was part of the international race to the biggest erection called the Cold War. NASA was basically invented to first catch up with the Russians and then to do everything bigger and better than the Russians after that. So naturally, if all those Russians can pull off is a little one use capsule, then NASA has to win by busting out a huge and miserably expensive flying brick that can hoist *7 whole people* :O into space, more than one time! Behold the power of American Engineering (TM), and how its so superior to that cheep commie stuff.

      'Course, now that the Cold War is over, the rest of the planet, including the Russians, is getting on with actual space exploration/research, while NASA sits on its ass wondering "why do I exist again?", as its main mission is now no longer necessary.

    11. Re:Reusable vehicles by sean23007 · · Score: 1

      True, but the point is that since the Shuttle is so expensive that any problem becomes huge, whereas the cheap Soyuz cannot have as extreme a catastrophe.

      --

      Lack of eloquence does not denote lack of intelligence, though they often coincide.
    12. Re:Reusable vehicles by Nucleon500 · · Score: 1

      Taking scraped parts that weren't designed to be reused and building new vehicles out of them isn't a very safe idea either. Can you imagine Jim Lovell talking to the people who built the Apollo 13 SM? "Why the HELL couldn't you use a new O2 tank!"

    13. Re:Reusable vehicles by shadowjk · · Score: 1

      Hm. I was under the impression that the Soyuz capsule was reusable?

      Atleast even NASA's Gemini was reusable (I believe they used the same one twice at one point)

    14. Re:Reusable vehicles by Dirtside · · Score: 1

      I would think it's more the complexity of the Shuttle that makes it so that "any problem becomes huge," rather than the expense. Nonetheless, are you saying the Soyuz can't have a catastrophic failure that kills its crew? I can't imagine any more extreme a catastrophe than that for a spacecraft. (Aside from maybe crashing into a building on the ground.)

      --
      "Destroy science and religion. Science would re-emerge exactly the same; but not religion." - Penn Jillette, paraphrased
    15. Re:Reusable vehicles by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      It's really hard to hush-up a really big penis-shaped object screaming into the sky at supersonic speeds. :-) Now what's actually ON the rocket is a different story.

    16. Re:Reusable vehicles by sean23007 · · Score: 1

      Expense and complexity often go hand in hand.

      I am not saying that the Soyuz cannot have a catastrophic failure, but I am saying that it doesn't have them nearly as often and that due to its simplicity it costs so much less. It's safer, simpler, and cheaper. My point is that maybe we should take a few tips from the Russians.

      --

      Lack of eloquence does not denote lack of intelligence, though they often coincide.
    17. Re:Reusable vehicles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Part of the reason they save so much money is because of what it costs them to make one vs what it would cost the US to make one. Yes, by design it is cheaper; however, in the long run a reliable shuttle (which I admit we don't have) would reduce the cost.

      BTW, they have lost Soyuz's in the past; they're not very open about it. One of them came back in a ballistic trajectory, then the parachutes didn't open. Use your imagination to guess what happened next...

  14. tmtowtdi by trb · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The current shuttle fleet is silly. In effect, NASA has a fleet of enormous dump trucks that it uses as taxicabs. They should have more than one type of craft - a small safe one for carrying people, and a big honkin' unmanned one for carrying freight.

    1. Re:tmtowtdi by Unregistered · · Score: 1

      and a big honkin' unmanned one for carrying freight

      It's called a rocket. That's what people use for freight now. The shuttle is rarely used for freight because it too expensive. i know the private sector almoast exclusively uses rockets.

  15. Much as I love my Athlon... by delphi125 · · Score: 5, Funny

    If in a hundred years time AMD is producing the CPUs for NASA spacecraft, they won't need tiles. They'll need cooling fins instead.

    1. Re:Much as I love my Athlon... by Dun+Malg · · Score: 2, Funny

      Christ almighty, someone mod parent up! This is the funniest joke I've ever heard, it's not based on specs of products from 3 years ago, and what's more I've never heard this joke before!

      --
      If a job's not worth doing, it's not worth doing right.
    2. Re:Much as I love my Athlon... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      While I'm no stranger to sarcasm, most of the moderators are. And the rest are just stupid fuckers.
      You've just destined that post for +funny.

  16. Easy or not... by Sod75 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Supporters of the Space program (myself and most other /.-ers i guess )tend to find it hard to believe so little prgress has been made in this field over the last 30 years. Generally NASA and the lot get blamed for being inefficiate, wasing the money, etc. But as a European I have to make the reflection , if that we're the reason why aren't us European ahead of NASA with ESA, and the Russians even with their money problems . Even That Billion Chinese peolple are quite recently joining... I think we can only conclude it's NOT as easy as it looks/seems... (Allthough a bit faster must be possible no ?)

    1. Re:Easy or not... by mikerich · · Score: 1
      Why is no one else doing it?

      Simple.

      Money.

      ESA abandoned the Ariane 5/Hermes mini-shuttle when the economics spiralled out of control. ESA have conducted studies on various spaceplanes, but always it comes down to the extraordinary amounts of money that would be required to get such a project up and running.

      Buran was one of the major contributors to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Had it been continued the economics would have been almost as bad as those of the Shuttle. But Buran was a superior craft.

      The Chinese have demonstrated models of a space shuttle and have announced they plan to build something along the lines of a reusable space craft, but their programme is secretive its difficult to tell what is going on.

      Unless someone can show a good reason for men to travel into space, or unless some country decides that a bit of grandstanding is needed in space, then the Space Shuttle will be one of a kind.

      Best wishes,
      Mike.

    2. Re:Easy or not... by dooguls · · Score: 1

      I think the above poster has an excellent point. Why is it that only the U.S. government is involved in putting big Dollars towards a space program? If NASA took the following two steps I think we'd see an awesome increase in world-wide pride and sense of human accomplishment.

      First of all they need to start selling ad space on their launch vehicles. Russia does it, heck I'd even go for a rotating sponsorship like the CocaCola STS mission #120 or whatever.

      Second of all NASA was most successful in the 60's because they had a single minded focus and bent their collective will towards one goal. Beat those Ruskies to the moon! NASA needs to decide on a singular mission focus and work towards it. They need to develop 5-10 year plans and accomplish one goal at a time until we can leave the solar system or colonize a planet.

      --
      Sig 'em boy!
    3. Re:Easy or not... by Ian+Bicking · · Score: 1
      Of course the Russians have a money problem -- Russia is a third world country. I don't believe that Europe, Russia, the Soviet Union, or China have put anywhere close to as much money into space exploration as the United States.

      Now, NASA arguably has accomplished much more than those other countries, so it's reasonable they'd need more money. But after thinking about it -- what has NASA accomplished? The shuttle, the space station, the Apollo missions... I don't think these accomplished anything. Doing things to prove you can is stupid, because there's too many useful things that need to be done.

      That said, NASA has also done useful things -- Voyager, etc. But the manned program is a failure by design -- when a project has has no useful goal, it cannot succede. So how can you judge the efficiency?

    4. Re:Easy or not... by DMUTPeregrine · · Score: 1

      Apollo was VERY usefull. It scared the living crap out of the USSR, especially since the USSR was somewhat cheating (Voshkod was a gutted Vostok, their rendevous was faked (Timed launches) and several other things.) When the US landed on the moon, we also placed several instruments there, and a few mirrors. Samples of moon rock contributed to our knowlege of the moon's geology, and the mirrors allow us to get accurate distance measurements. This helps us understand the orbit of the moon, it's affect on the earth, etc. Also, it boosted US morale. Remember, the Apollo program was a cold war era thing, more for prestige than actual science. NASA got used to this sort of operation, and continued with the shuttle, and the ISS. Now, ISS does have some uses. it is a great way to test how long people can stay in space. Why is that needed? Because a manned trip to mars would be usefull. I've done quite a bit of robotics, good AI is very hard, and the time delay is of course to long for remote controll. A human expidition to mars would be able to discover much more than any current robot probe. As for why people aren't putting money in, it's because they see no payoff. The US sees the payoff ... showing off. Also, ISS is international, somewhat. The US isn't the sole contributor.

      --
      Not a sentence!
    5. Re:Easy or not... by mfrank · · Score: 1

      The only reason progress was made 30 years ago was competition between USSR and US. The manned space program now is pure pork, both in US and ESA.

      You don't need a manned program to put up satellites.

  17. Just gotta say... by EpsCylonB · · Score: 2, Funny

    I want one.

  18. It's simple by steveha · · Score: 5, Interesting

    It's very simple. What we need are reusable ships with a modest cargo capacity, plus maybe a few "big dumb boosters" for launching big things.

    It's also very clear that NASA is not capable, as an organization, of doing this. NASA has some smart people working there, but any really large project will safely bury the smart ones under red tape where they can't do anything. If you want to convert money into piles of paper, have NASA attempt to make a follow-up to the shuttle.

    The US government should make iron-clad promises to buy launches. Station re-supply launches for the International Space Station would be a great place to start. If John Carmack's company, or any other company, can get a vehicle going that can run supplies to orbit, the government should hire them to do it. In other words, pay for results but for nothing else, and don't have any part of the government (especially NASA) trying to help design the ships.

    steveha

    --
    lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
    1. Re:It's simple by Animats · · Score: 1
      It's very simple. What we need are reusable ships with a modest cargo capacity, plus maybe a few "big dumb boosters" for launching big things.

      Yes. The "Orbital Space Plane" is supposed to do that. It's basically a winged nose cone that seats up to 7 people for existing boosters. NASA ought to build that and buy heavy-lift boosters from the Russians.

      NASA is a pork program. NASA's charter requires it to spread money around various states. There are 15 major NASA centers, probably about three times as many as there should be. The "Stennis Space Center", originally built to do static tests on Saturn V engines, still has 4500 employees. NASA still has small-rocket operations at both Wallops Island and White Sands. They have large wind tunnels at Glenn and Ames. This is more infrastructure than they need for what they do. NASA has a big "educational" (i.e. PR) operation, in addition to its regular PR operation, and they also try to be a mini-National Science Foundation. All that should go.

    2. Re:It's simple by Jeff+DeMaagd · · Score: 1

      Sadly, no one has a truly heavy lifter any more. Russia had one that could lift a lot more than the shuttle, but I think NASA's shuttle fleet has the most capacity still in use. I'm not sure what happened to Russia's system, I think that heavy lifter had chronic problems due to having too many small engines, and that the engines failed too often. I think ESA's Araine(sp?) 5 has suffered something like three or four failures in its dozen or so launches, which is more failures than the preceeding "4" version which ran over a hundred flights.

      I agree that separate heavy lifting and people moving system is needed.

    3. Re:It's simple by Jeff+DeMaagd · · Score: 1

      Sorry about the italics.

      Sadly, no one has a truly heavy lifter any more. Russia had one that could lift a lot more than the shuttle, but I think NASA's shuttle fleet has the most capacity still in use. I'm not sure what happened to Russia's system, I think that heavy lifter had chronic problems due to having too many small engines, and that the engines failed too often. I think ESA's Araine(sp?) 5 has suffered something like three or four failures in its dozen or so launches, which is more failures than the preceeding "4" version which ran over a hundred flights.

      I agree that separate heavy lifting and people moving system is needed, the people moving system could be much smaller, but hopefully still be able to fix and upgrade things in orbit. I think someone suggested that the current shuttle could still be used sparingly for return flights on heavier cargoes if needed.

    4. Re:It's simple by cheesybagel · · Score: 1
      Russia's Energia rocket could launch more than the shuttle and it did not have many small rockets or reliability problems. However that launch system was originally made for launching their own shuttle, the Buran, which despite being superior to the shuttle in several ways was a money sponge. IIRC the biggest problem was designing the main rocket engine. Energia+Buran only flew once and Buran landed on automated systems without crew in a perfect flight.

      The Russian Proton rocket can lift about the same as the Shuttle and is in current use:

      The reason Ariane 5 keeps having reliability problems is that they keep changing the design to add more launch capacity without seemingly testing the new parts properly before launch.

      If you add together the failures of all variants of Ariane 4 it had the same number of failures.

      The heavy variants of the US Atlas V and Delta IV are capable of lifting about the same as the space shuttle. Though none of these actually flew yet the main components have been flight tested already.

    5. Re:It's simple by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It should also be noted that Energia flew twice...

  19. Re:The entire 5 page article: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Man, thats just too funny.

    Bravo!

  20. Re:nice math by halo8 · · Score: 1

    your math is only slightly flawed

    with a reusable vehicle you need more R&D, more $$$ on better quailty longer lasting parts, more $$$ on repairs and replacments

    with a use once.. it only has to to be build to last that one flight, throw it away, build another.

    --
    The More Knowledge you have the Luckier you Get- J.R. Ewing
  21. Proof of time and speciality againt your stupidity by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "rocket scientists might know what they're doing"

    First off the answer is *no* this as been prooved over time , some of the project they made and idea they add give good or somewhat intended result , but they have yet to provide a space shuttle that everybody can use for everyday space travel ... hence its a big failure.

    Now for the speciality , someone have yet to tell those in charge of funding to start to fund the space shuttle scientist specialist and not the rocket scientist , whats the difference since you dont seem to know :

    A rocket scientist make rocket , rocket are projectile that go toward a point , they may carry explosive or not and they may have , exploration , transportaion or military purpose.

    A space shuttle scientist build space shuttle , there purpose is to build something that can be used to travel into space and carry astronauts or cargo.

    A car industry analogy would be this:

    You dont ask a mechanic to build a car but a car engineer ... Then why do you ask a rocket specialist to build a space shuttle ?

  22. Amazing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is simultaneously both the least coherent and most uninformed response I've ever seen on Slashdot (with a side order of arrogant stupidity).

  23. It looks like the Farscape Space Craft by Unixinvid · · Score: 2, Funny

    The proposed shuttle looks like Crightons experimental shuttle that can go through worm holes in space.

  24. Re:nice math by Fastolfe · · Score: 1

    You're picking nits.

    If all of the costs of a reusable program over your operating period can be less than the costs of a disposable program over the same years (ALL COSTS), then it's "cheaper" to go with a reusable program.

    Part of NASA's place is also to spur research. It is anticipated that the private sector will be able to build off of some of some of that research.

    It makes sense (and NASA would seem to agree with me here) that if you can put enough research into a reusable program, you can get the costs of your launches down far lower than a disposable program. After X years, it will pay for itself. Just because X is greater than 1 or 10 doesn't mean it's foolish to pursue it.

  25. Re:Doesn't make sense without large launch schedul by Dinosaur+Neil · · Score: 1

    At current launch rates, NASA should stick with expendable vehicles.

    Actually they're thinking about that, kinda.

    About the time this issue of PS hit the stands, we had an AIAA seminar with the guy who's in charge of the OSP program at Marshall Center. The latest thinking is, as much as possible, to use off the shelf tech so that they can get something in (and over) the air as soon as possible. The includes using a Delta 4 first stage (upgraded enough to be safe for human use) and only the 6-seater "plane" would be reusable. There was also an encouraging discussion on cycle time; i.e. the new system would actually include the infrastructure to refurbish the OSP and have it ready to launch again in days or weeks, rather than the months (or more) that the shuttles take. OTOH, the OSP is still keeping us stuck in low-Earth orbit. Bah.

    --
    "I'm a scientist! I don't think, I observe!" - Dr. Clayton Forrester
  26. Just a thought by Faust7 · · Score: 1

    If I were them, I'd get Burt Rutan on board the design team. He seems to have his head on straight.

  27. Guess where Crighton's module's design came from. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Chrighton's module is the X-38, the main design for the International Space Station escape system. The X-38 is very similar to other lifting-body designs, which most of these are.

    (Ok, they just took the exterior design of the X-38. The X-38 can't do half the shit Chrighton's module seems to be able to do! :)

  28. Re:Guess where Crighton's module's design came fro by nempo · · Score: 1

    That's because he modified it with alien technology.

    --
    --- No, english is not my mother tongue.
  29. Why still give up on scramjets? by zipwow · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I keep reading that the National Aerospace Plane was cancelled in 1993 because it was "too soon for the scramjet".

    Is that still the case? That was a decade ago, have no other improvements been made? The idea of something that takes off and lands just like a plane still seems very, very appealing.

    My suspicion is that this is another one of those cases where the too-early version failed, and now everyone's afraid to try it again.

    -Zipwow

    --
    I don't know which is more depressing, that 2/3 didn't care enough to vote, or that 1/2 of those that did are crazy.
    1. Re:Why still give up on scramjets? by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1
      The most successful scramjets work great for the 30 seconds or so until they, as designed, melt. And it's not that they wanted them to melt, they pretty much melt whatever you do.

      There are lots of problems with scramjets. They've been a research project for decades and it's only in the last few years that one even gave positive thrust in real flight.

      The problems with trying to survive at mach 6+ in thick atmosphere should not be underestimated, it is a far, far worse environment than the Shuttle faces when reentering (check out Columbia), and the Shuttle gets it over and done with as soon as possible, giving the heat less time to soak into the vehicle. A scramjet spends a lot longer going fast in thick atmosphere, and the temperature issues this causes on the outer skin is just awesome, never mind inside the scramjet itself.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    2. Re:Why still give up on scramjets? by IWannaBeAnAC · · Score: 1
      A lot of improvements have been made to scramjet technology in the last decade.

      The first successful testflight of a scramjet engine occurred at the Woomera rocket range in Australia in 2002. project homepage

      It will be a long time (maybe never?) before this becomes a viable technology for a space shuttle though. Even the more immediate goal, of a cheap launcher for small satellites, is decades away. NASA were completely correct to discount it.

    3. Re:Why still give up on scramjets? by zakezuke · · Score: 1

      I like the idea of the scram jet. That whole concept of actually using ambient "air" rather the having to carry liquid oxygen to get your vehicel off the ground makes a fair amount of sence to me.

      What makes even more sence is keeping a supply of fuel in orbit, as well as smaller craft docked to a space station for the high orbit recovery missions, craft that don't have to be weighed down by needing trivial little things such as heat shielding and enough fuel to reach escape velocity.

      Have three classes of space vehicels

      1. The large cargo shuttle.
      2. The medium load shuttle.
      3. The small manned crew shuttle.

      --
      There is no sanctuary. There is no sanctuary. SHUT UP! There is no shut up. There is no shut up.
    4. Re:Why still give up on scramjets? by steveha · · Score: 1

      That whole concept of actually using ambient "air" rather the having to carry liquid oxygen to get your vehicel off the ground makes a fair amount of sence to me.

      The problem is that liquid oxygen is both cheap and pretty compact. And, once you burned it, it's gone. Your scramjet design needs scramjet engines, and it will carry those engines to orbit and back. They only help during the initial takeoff phase, but the weight penalty is there 100% of the time. The same applies to the wings.

      You want your spaceship to get up out of the atmosphere as quick as possible, so it won't be able to use the scramjet engines all that long anyway.

      You can build a rocket that will take off, fly in space, and land... all using the same (rocket) engines. This will be a simpler design than some complicated thing that starts out with jet engines, switches over to scramjet engines when speeds are high enough, then switches over to rocket engines when there is no ambient air around (i.e. in space). Simpler is good.

      There is some merit to the idea of a two-stage design, where the first stage can be air-breathing and can carry the second stage up to thinner air. The proponents of single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) think you don't need the air-breathing lower stage, and that the operational cost will be lower if you have the SSTO. One stage is less than two stages, so it should take less maintenance, less manpower, and so on. But no one has seriously tried to develop a complete SSTO design, other than on paper; if it turns out we can't quite get a useful payload on an SSTO, we could always have an extra stage to get it on its way.

      steveha

      --
      lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
    5. Re:Why still give up on scramjets? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The idea of something that takes off and lands just like a plane still seems very, very appealing.

      I think that even though it is appealing, it is not as efficient as vertical take off is and wastes fuel.

    6. Re:Why still give up on scramjets? by mfrank · · Score: 1

      You may be interested in looking at laser or microwave propulsion. It's a lot easier to heat the air with EM than with combustion.

  30. Wrong with the computers by alexhmit01 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Well, as clearly stated in the article (hint), the outdated systems on the shuttle is a BIG part of the problem. Each system on the shuttle is autonomous, and requires one or more individuals on the ground to monitor it the entire trip. This results in thousands of people on the ground monitoring these things. Alternatively, if you modernized the equipment, you could DRASTICALLY reduce the people required to monitor the Shuttle while in orbit.

    This could save NASA billions in costs. The problem is that NASA wants a new device that is massively better than the shuttle, instead of doing a CBA and get a fleet that is modern, 2-4 times safer, and costs half to operate.

    The problem is that NASA won't go with replacement programs until they get a 200-fold safety improvement and a 10-fold cost savings. So as a result, we are spending a fortune on an aging fleet of increasingly primitive vehicles.

    Instead, it would be nice if NASA would go for 2-4x safety improvements and 50% cost savings, and then build a new reusable launch vehicle every 10-20 years.

    If we left alone or increased NASA funding, we could support perpetual research on new shuttles, with each generation bringing down in costs. If the operating costs dropped, you could save the money and use it towards research. The shuttle program produced a LOT of technology for the US economy (remember everything was space-age in the 80s), and new research programs will continue to do so. However, just relaunching the same thing for billions doing retarded thing like ants in space isn't pushing technology forward, it's just spending money to protect NASA's turf.

    1. Re:Wrong with the computers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All of the proposed shuttles are actually more complex in maintenance and launch and less capable of payload that the current shuttle. It would make more sense to build a new version of the same style of shuttle we have now with improved ding resistand tiles and replace the expendible boosters with a big flyback booster that uses all liquid fuels. The two units would be mated flat side to flat side and take off in the usual mode. Costs and turnaround would be slightly reduced but reliability and capacity would increase.

  31. The new shuttles... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ... are all bad ideas. It is not time to rearchitect the shuttle. It has worked, albeit with some catastrophes, for the past 30 years and it shows that the original design has merit. What needs to happen is actual *construction* of new shuttles based on the old design rather than the *design* of new shuttles based on pure theoretical, untested theory.

    It's classic "don't want to fix the bugs, let's rearchitect" syndrome. However, if NASA and its partners hunker down and fix the problems, we can have a new fleet that will last another 30 years *without* catastrophe.

    Here's what they should do:

    1. Use their crash data to make whatever improvements necessary to enhance reliability
    2. Upgrade their computer systems, perhaps removing a significant amount of bulk. (A $999 laptop has 10x the computing power of the original refrigerator-sized computer)
    3. Expand the cargo bay a little bit. If carmakers can do it each and every model year, surely they can, too.
    4. Better computer-assisted rocket thrusters for far better maneuverability in space. A next-gen space station will require more agility.
    5. Improved ground control procedures. This means redundant, randomly paired inspectors, more stringent weather parameters, etc.

    These sorts of things are what will make a better space program. Not pie-in-sky next generation planes that will be even more subject to catastrophe. Let the military figure out how to create a scramjet, fly suborbital, etc. NASA has shown it's no longer fit to push the cutting edge of aerospace.

    1. Re:The new shuttles... by Bitsy+Boffin · · Score: 1

      The current shuttle is an inadequate poor solution to the problem for two reasons primarily (which are related) - COST and REUSABILITY.

      The cost per kg for launching the shuttle is astronomical, far too expensive, far more expensive than is necessary, but using the current shuttle & booster design it's a cheap as it's gonna get.

      And after every launch, so much has to be rebuilt/repaired that the reusability is pathetic, this also means that the turn-around time from launch to launch is absolutely hopeless.

      Keeping the existing shuttle+booster design is a pointless waste of time, nothing can be done to solve the important problems that prevent the shuttle from being an economical, fast or efficient transportation device.

      --
      NZ Electronics Enthusiasts: Check out my Trade Me Listings
    2. Re:The new shuttles... by ValentineMSmith · · Score: 1
      I don't know who modded this up as insightful, but the moderator should be slapped with a wet fish.

      Why do you think that NASA built Endeavor from off-the-shelf parts (mostly) rather than restarting the production lines in Pasedena, CA to build another shuttle from scratch? I would have cost way too much to restart everything (all of the workers had been laid off, the assembly lines mothballed, and such like).

      No matter how much you think it would cost to build a shuttle replacement, trying to build more shuttles (especially your new and improved shuttles) would cost far more than development of a shuttle replacement.

      And as for expanding the cargo bay... Most frequently, the primary restriction on cargo carried is not size. It's weight. Improvements to the amount of weight the shuttle could carry to low Earth orbit have happened several times (going all the way back to STS-3, when they stopped painting the external tank, thereby saving 600 pounds in paint).

      Sorry, bud. You're trying to save money, but all of the items you mentioned are either.

      unnecessary.

      already done.

      nowhere near enough return on investment.

      --
      Karma: Chameleon - mostly influenced by bad '80s New Wave music
    3. Re:The new shuttles... by martinschrder · · Score: 1
      It is not time to rearchitect the shuttle.

      The shuttle was a wrong design from the start and can't be fixed. Read this:

      Shuttle was designed to employ about 20,000 people. It met that goal admirably; you can't fly Shuttle with fewer people. It just can't be done.
  32. Re:nice math by halo8 · · Score: 1

    hhmm.. im not really nit picking i feel ihad some vaild points.

    1 -okay.. if your looking at the TCO you need a team to build it (or 5 of them) AND you team to repair them (yes im sure some of the jobs would migrate over)
    OR
    you could just have one team to build it, and build it right every time

    2-spur research? HELL YA!!
    reusable shuttle = your locked into a vendor specific whatever (metal, parts, technology, whatever) overhauls and upgrades are premo expensive
    disposable shuttle = as soon as new technology, metal, composite is discoverd and tested.. just build the next model out of that

    ALSO one month its a lockheed shuttle, next month a boeing shuttle, spurs inivation, spurs compition, keeps costs down, and new tech will spiral down to the consumers, win win win

    i agree its not perfect, but as the artical said (RTFA) Quality, speed, Cost: choose two

    --
    The More Knowledge you have the Luckier you Get- J.R. Ewing
  33. Answer is simple and obvious by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Co-develop the next gen shuttle with the Japanese. The Japanese have a knack at improving efficiency and reliability. Overall, the Japanese lead reliability in cars, computers (vaio's excepted), and general management.

    1. Re:Answer is simple and obvious by DMUTPeregrine · · Score: 1

      Team em with the Germans then. They are best at mechanical engeneering.

      --
      Not a sentence!
  34. 1+1=2 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Well thank you , Miss AC

    at least now I know I am right , if an idiot dont like nor understand what you put forward
    and your idea it only means that your on the right path ... any inventor/inteligent person knows that.

    If you cant understand that the space shuttle have problem and that the solution whont come from a rocket scientist but a space shuttle engineer , please dont participate your obviously missing the objective and goal ...

    1 + 1 = 2

    if

    1 rocket scientist + 1 space shuttle = 0 space program , in my book its a total failure ...

    But your obviously to bright to learn from the past and your/others mistake ...

  35. Environmental? Re:Something must be wrong... by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 2, Interesting
    But a single space launch uses a hell of a lot of fuel and creates a lot of pollution - this is not sustainable.

    That's not actually true. A rocket produces about the same amount of pollution as burning the same amount of fuel in a car engine. The main pollutant it creates is CO2, and it doesn't, overall, produce any CO2 if you use biomass to make the rocket fuel (since the plants suck up as much CO2 as they grow as the rocket produces).

    Yes, rocket propulsion is efficient in a chemical-kinetic energy transfer way, but not efficient if all other costs are taken into account.

    Nonsense. It doesn't even use that much fuel. First, 2/3 of the fuel is liquid oxygen, it's cheap and environmentally friendly. That's produced from liquid distillation of air. That leaves about 20 kgs of fuel needed for each kg of payload. A person weighs, say 200 kg, including spacesuit. That means you need 4000kg of fuel. That's about the same amount of fuel as I burnt in my car last year. It's a lot, but not an overwhelming amount, and it's not like I go shopping in my rocket every day, going into space is a rare event.

    Use geo-thermal energy to power such a mag-lev launcher thing... I find that preferable.

    Yeah, but if you have the geo-thermal, why not use it to make hydrogen, and launch with that in a conventional rocket? That way you can do it for a few billion rather than 100 trillion dollars or whatever a 50km long mag-lev launcher would cost. How much pollution would be made in constructing that anyway?

    --

    -WolfWithoutAClause

    "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
  36. Re:Doesn't make sense without large launch schedul by Jordy · · Score: 1

    Let's imagine that it costs $32 billion to design a new space vehicle like the article claims.

    We know that an existing launch costs $500 million. If this cost only half as much to launch as the existing vehicle, it would only need to fly 128 times to recoup the cost of the development.

    The $32 billion figure is because NASA can't stand to not create new technology every time they build something. They are always looking at lighter fuel tanks using some exotic material that has never been tested before instead of using what exists already and is already significantly cheaper than what is used in the shuttle.

    I hate to say it, but NASA should be dismantled and a new agency without the 30 year legacy of ineptitude should be put in place.

    --
    The world is neither black nor white nor good nor evil, only many shades of CowboyNeal.
  37. Space pessimism, or "where's my damn moon colony?" by Cid+Highwind · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There is no next-generation space shuttle, and there never will be. Boosting NASA's budget doesn't get senators re-elected, and no private companies are willing to look far enough ahead to see the potential profits in spaceborne industry.

    Nobody cares about science or exploration, all that matters anymore is who owns which patch of oil-laden sand in the middle east. NASA has lost both the budget and the backbone for manned spaceflight. We went to the moon almost half a century ago, and now all we can do is putter about in low orbit building overpriced, underperforming space stations. Pathetic.

    The human race will die on this godforsaken rock.

    --
    0 1 - just my two bits
  38. Misguided Replacements by Mr.Sharpy · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It seems to me that all these designs are made for one thing alone, and that is to ferry astronauts back and forth to that other orbital albatross...the ISS. If they are never going to get any real science going on that damn thing I would much rather that they can the whole thing entirely. I would like to see NASA devote all the money that goes to the the shuttle, iss, and all the other NASA garbage to programs that will get humans out of Earth orbit and into the rest of the solar system.

    NASA research programs are sitting on all sorts of interesting innovations and inventions. I think it would be great if some of those innovations got the kind of funding that would allow them to be realized on a useful scale. I want to see a nuclear powered rocket fly to far reaches of our solar system. I want to see some of the technology put to use in putting humans on Mars and a permanent settlement on the moon.

    I'm tired of seeing tax dollars blown on orbital crap that can be done faster, better, and cheaper with robots and computers than by humans in flying tin cans when there are far more exciting possibilities for human exploration of space.

    1. Re:Misguided Replacements by cheesybagel · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I agree with you regarding robotic exploration being better for most purposes.

      However the ISS should *not* be canned. It works and the infrastructure has already been built. Why not use it instead of wasting the spent money completely?

      The European and Japanese are working on making resupply vehicles that should be finished in a couple of years hence the shuttle will not be as required for routine maintenance. In the meatime the Russians have the means to keep it up.

      There are many science modules being built right now in Europe and elsewhere for the ISS. Once these are fitted it will be possible to make much better science work.

      Regarding heavy lifting of modules than can be achieved by the Atlas V and Delta IV rockets.

      The only thing required is a vehicle for human transportation with higher capacity than the venerable Soyuz.

      If NASA had not dumped the X-38 they would actually have had such a vehicle real soon now for a much lower cost than the shuttle.

      Since they did drop it I think the best choice for them is to make a capsule with capacity for 6 people. It should not cost as much, can use existing rocket infrastructure, is safer, can be developed quicker.

      Services around the station could actually help the private efforts. The truth is currently the market for space launches is small and saturated. Unless this changes most of the private efforts will likely never take off.

      The government must push for more new uses of space and allow the private sector to bid for launch services. One way of doing this would be to pursue building power satellites. The world needs cheap clean energy and the technology is here *now*. It is just a matter of engineering and money.

    2. Re:Misguided Replacements by pfdietz · · Score: 1
      However the ISS should *not* be canned. It works and the infrastructure has already been built. Why not use it instead of wasting the spent money completely?
      Because it it of almost no value. The paltry results we could get from it do not justify the cost of continuing to operate it.
    3. Re:Misguided Replacements by thynk · · Score: 1

      Because it it of almost no value. The paltry results we could get from it do not justify the cost of continuing to operate it.

      Unless of course we produce massive ammounts of space pr0n on it, then I'd imagine that the male readership of /. alone would fund the entire project at a profit!

      --

      Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.
  39. Re:modern computers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    As long as the new space shuttles have some modern computers on board

    I was under the impression that the computers were older technology because they had to be hardened against the electromagnetic radiation. Granted, they could be better, but they couldn't put P4s on it.

  40. Re:nice math by Fastolfe · · Score: 1

    Regarding your first point, you make this statement as though it's the most obvious thing in the world that the disposable option will be cheaper. I don't understand how you keep coming back to this argument with no knowledge of the real numbers. Yes, it will be more expensive to build a reusable vehicle. The idea is that the cost of reuse will be lower than the cost of building a new disposable vehicle. If this is true, then over sufficient time, it will pay for itself. If you still don't understand this, please take a basic economics class and ask you teacher to explain it to you.

    2-spur research? HELL YA!!

    I'm guessing this is supposed to be sarcastic. If you really believe private industry has not benefited from scientific advances made by way of NASA programs, you are exceptionally uninformed.

    I'm also guessing that when you say "RTFA" you are under the impression that I have not done so. The "Quality, speed, cost" bit has no bearing on this thread. The point the article was trying to make is that NASA hasn't traditionally done a good job of budgeting, promising quality quickly with a low cost. That doesn't mean a reusable launch vehicle will always be more expensive (again, in the long run) than a series of disposable ones. It just means NASA's going to have to do a better job of accounting this time around.

  41. Re:nice math by Lershac · · Score: 0

    Not necessarily... Factor in the time value of money. In a reusable system all the R&D is front loaded (the really expensive part of the program) and the maintenance is in later (inflated from time inflation) costs.

    In the disposable program, (and I question the neccesary use of that word, why can't we re-use large chunks of the rocket?) The much lower R&D costs are also up front, and the higher operating costs are paid for with later inflated (cheaper) dollars.

    --
    Chuck
  42. Let's start building Saturn V's again by multiplexo · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Suitably updated where necessary and with an eye towards reusability if feasible. The Saturn V kicked ass and shows what a kludge the shuttle is, we're talking about a booster that could put a Mack truck in orbit around the moon. The Shuttle was a huge step backwards in every area except for reusability.

    --
    cheap labor conservatives - they want to keep you hungry enough to be thankful for minimum wage.
    1. Re:Let's start building Saturn V's again by MousePotato · · Score: 1

      We can't. At least not without reengineering them from scratch. The plans were destroyed in a fire and most of the brilliant minds involved in the design are either retired or dead by now.

    2. Re:Let's start building Saturn V's again by multiplexo · · Score: 1
      Let's look at some urban myths here. One, the plans were not destroyed in a fire. You can look this up on
      urbanlegends.com. We also have two full sized Saturn V stacks that were designed for the Apollo 18 and 19 missions, and which were allowed to rust away to uselessness that we could take apart to see how these were built.


      As far as the brilliant minds who were involved in the design being dead, well, yeah, that's true. On the other hand it's a bit of a stretch to assume that no one as bright as Wernher Von Braun is around to take their place.


      Now, the big issue is that the Saturn V tooling is lost. This is criminal, but the Saturn V would be a good design starting point. The US designed these things in the early 1960s and managed to land 12 men on the moon with them and do a bunch of other cool stuff. This is not a bad place to start from.


      A successor to the Saturn V (the Saturn 6, the Neptune? The Uranus?) could start off from the Saturn V design and incorporate 40 years of improvements in materials, design and avionics. This would be much better than hacking away on the shuttle which was a horrid kludge from day 1 and which has never met any of its goals.


      Along with the heavy booster replcement a space plane based on X-15 based technology should be built. We were going to build one of these 40 years ago, it was the unfortunately named "Dyna-Soar" project (who the fuck came up with that name anyways? What were they thinking?). Dyna-Soar got whacked by Bob McNamara so that we could spend more money on our Southeast Asian Weapons Testing Project, also known as the Vietnam War.


      It is depressing to me that we were closer to space at the time of my birth 37 years ago in 1965 than we are today.

      --
      cheap labor conservatives - they want to keep you hungry enough to be thankful for minimum wage.
    3. Re:Let's start building Saturn V's again by MousePotato · · Score: 1

      Sadly, that very myth is perpetuated by some of the tour guides at KSC, as I had heard that one recently on a visit there.

      I am pretty sure that there are a few minds over there that are at least as capable as VonBraun but nobody has the kind of experience that those guys did considering we haven't designed a new heavy lift system in some 30 years. That kind of experience being lost imho is a shame.

      It would be nice to see whats on the drawing boards for a successor to the SaturnV lifters. I agree with you on the hacks at the shuttle; the whole sts program has been a flop if you look at the original design specs. It has some great capabilities that made it state of the art for the time of its design yet by the time it flew most of the tech had been largely surpassed. Only in the last few years via the refits and upgrades have they even gotten close to todays computing capabilities. I think it still has uses but they are certainly limited and frighteningly expensive.

      I have spent a lot of time thinking about what would be a better restart for the program over the years(not that my opinion has any bearing on the space program as I am but a lowly martial arts instructor and certainly not a rocket scientist). I think for the time being we should pass on the the shuttles unless they are absolutely necessary for a given mission and return to expendable technologies. Heck, the soyuz program is a cheap brute force approach to getting people up there at $15 million a pop(almost 34 launches of three people per for the price of one shuttle launch at $500 million). Ok, so one time use isn't as sexy as a reusable space plance but certainly keeps in line with Keep It Simple and leaves a lot of funds available to develop a better space plane platform on a longer engineering schedule.

      Personally, I think the estimated 15 billion to build a star ladder/bean stalk would be a better investment. I think we are almost ready to make that happen and once in place it certainly would be a cheaper to loft everything up there. Sadly, I don't see anything anywhere on NASA's site with regard to it as an idea. Perhaps it is still fantasy on the verge of reality. We won't know until we try.

      It seems you and I are both 'children' of the space age. The irony is frustrating for me too as we have now gone more than 30 years since we landed on the moon and are atleast 30 years behind on building a base there. It would make for a great place to use nuclear rocket engines like Prometheus and other lifters that could take advantage of the lower gravity to launch other exploration missions from.

      I'd love to continue this discussion but I have to go and teach class. I added you to my friends list as this has been a good think through for me and I hope to read more of your posts. Peace, Sandor.

  43. Naive quote by MobyDisk · · Score: 0
    ...NASA insisted that any new system be a huge improvement over the shuttle instead of being merely more efficient and cost-effective. That often made these projects overly expensive and ambitious.

    Someone explain to me how a program that is "merely more efficient and cost-effective" could be described as "overly expensive?" If this is the type of logic NASA budget planners are using, then they need some serious help from the private sector. Not that corporations think long-term enough to be controlling NASA, but a bit of tight budget sense might help here.

  44. 2 out of 5 is correct by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    One of those six wasn't meant to, and hasn't, gone into orbit. It was just a test vehicle.

    Boner points: which one?

    Whichever way you cut it, the shuttle program has NO NINES reliabilty. We need to replace this thing, and fast. Somebody wake up George and tell him there's a leadership opportunity here.

  45. Who the hell by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    is the webmaster for Popular Science?

    I love the choice between text so small I can't see it or lines of text overlapping each other.

    1. Re:Who the hell by DMUTPeregrine · · Score: 1

      That is, of course, a clever tool. It makes you go out and buy the article.

      --
      Not a sentence!
  46. Next Generation Boondoggle by LaCosaNostradamus · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I read the article and have seldom seem such unassuming outrage in my life.

    The current shuttle is a terrible system that started out with too many compromises. It smacks of a political statement. The same system could have been accomplished with two other, smaller, cheaper systems: crew-mission ships (very X-15 like) and heavy-cargo lifters. But those were too functional (i.e. not sexy enough) and frankly couldn't have funneled that much money into a mondo-beyondo development program run by an aerospace company or three. So, instead, we got a moderate-lift, heavily-crewed ship that tumbles in the airstream of some mishap (thus being completely destroyed) once every 50 to 100 flights.

    What was NASA's response to this last November?: let's keep this good thing going ... to 2010! The engineers (at least those who are doing the acutal work) knew the shuttle was heading for another loss-of-all-hands.

    The article claims that for replacement programs, there's "no shortage of ideas" ... and goes on to present several. I'm not worried about options ... I'm worried about cost. With prior projections of $6 to $35 (!!!) billion, I don't feel particularly compelled to keep NASA in the space-shuttling business. Instead, with the basis for the current shuttle being $500 million per flight, see if we can task those much-vaunted aerospace companies to build a system and run it, at LESS THAN THAT COST. If it turns out for their launch system that they use a gigantic rubber band stretched between two immense pylons, and charge $10 million per flight, then ... GREAT!

    --
    [You have a stable society when some nut guns down a schoolyard and the law doesn't change.]
    1. Re:Next Generation Boondoggle by thynk · · Score: 1

      If it turns out for their launch system that they use a gigantic rubber band stretched between two immense pylons, and charge $10 million per flight, then ... GREAT!

      funny really that's almost exactly what went through my head.
      "500 million per launch. Ok, get me 2 really big rubberbands, 4 paperclips and two hookers."
      "Two hookers, what for?"
      "Because man cannot live on bread alone my friend"
      "Oh, you'll be wanting some bread too then I take it?" ::Sigh:: It's no wonder people think I'm strange.

      --

      Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.
  47. The idea of winged space vehicles is stupid anyway by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

    Wings have no use in space.
    You do not have lift since there is no air. Wings are just a juicy target for microasteroids.

    Having that waste of weight just so you can land like a plane is stupid since a simple parachute can do the same job. Or parafoil. Or retrorockets. Or airbags. Or folding rotors. The list goes on. Plenty of ways to land besides wings.

    Also the shuttle needs to make a glide and land in a way long air strip. Try making an emergency crash landing with it. Kiss your ass goodbye.

    You can make a vehicle with a parachute land in the ocean or on land (i.e. basically anywhere).

    If it is reusable you want, well, you do not need wings for that either. The space shuttle solid rocket boosters are reusable and do not have wings.

    Can the idea of single stage to orbit. That way you need thermal shielding on everything and the engines need to be complex to work on different regimes.

    Use liquid fuel in all stages since it is less polluting, higher performing, reusable and allows mission abort.

    Truax is right you know?

  48. Doh! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I meant "Crighton" instead of "Chrighton."

    Farscape is good, but my misspelling made it look like Crighton is close to the Second Coming. :)

  49. Re:nice math by Fastolfe · · Score: 1

    I don't understand how this changes anything. I am talking about TOTAL costs here, including up-front R&D and operating costs over X years. Am I not making this clear or something?

    Add all of your estimated costs up. Include up-front research costs. Include maintenance over time, including any inflation you anticipate occurring. Include margins of error or ANY and EVERY cost associated with the program. INCLUDE **ALL** COSTS.

    Repeat this for every potential project (new reusable, reusable + disposable or entirely disposable programs). If any of these plans have a high probability of producing something that will be cheaper than current methods, investigate and pursue them.

    Why are we making it sound like the disposable option is always going to be cheaper here. Have you run the numbers? Can we please concede the possibility that NASA has more information than you do and that perhaps they have and fully intend to run the numbers before deciding on a shuttle replacement?

  50. Space shuttle = money pit, use a capsule by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Look, there are way too many veriables in using a shuttle type vehicle. Has anyone ever even looked at a reusable capsule?

    Why would we want to have the shuttle transport the equipment up to space? Why not have a transport for people (ie: a capsule which is low risk)? Have a seperate transport for equipment and materials (a big rocket that is unmanned).

    Why is a capsule lower risk, NO MOVING PARTS. ONLY 1 surface for reentry. A smaller area for the reentry surface.

    Look, I'm not a rocket scientist, but the shuttle is, for me, a money pit, and will have alot more failures than a capsule system would.

  51. It'll never happen! by macdaddy357 · · Score: 1

    That rag could be called Popular Science-Fiction. Nothing in it ever really gets built. This new shuttle will never happen. Pop Sci has always been full of the silliness fifties futurists thought we would have by 2000. Maybe they could even call it Futurama magazine.

    --
    How ya like dat?
  52. Re:Doesn't make sense without large launch schedul by pfdietz · · Score: 1

    Now throw in interest costs (you are paying for development before you get any launches, and the value of the launches in the out years is heavily discounted), as well as a risk premium (there's a chance your $32 billion will be pissed away without getting a vehicle; NASA's recent track record in vehicle development is not encouraging.) The 128 launches balloon rather quickly.

  53. Japanese and technology by John+Bayko · · Score: 3, Informative
    Actually, large scale Japanese aerospace and military projects tend to go badly, as far a cost and schedule in particular. As an example, look at the H-2 rocket, which is both more expensive and less capable than similar U.S, European, Russian, or even Chinese rockets. Plus a longer development time.

    Also check out their current indiginous fighter project - even given the basic F-16 design to copy, it's still not finished (it's not an exact copy, but it's taken longer than some of from-scratch designs).

    Japanese companies are very good at using mature technology, and at making technology mature. They are fairly bad at using immature technology for end products. Rocket technology is still a long way from being mature.

    Although a lot can be done with the technology that is mature. An example was the McDonnel Douglass Delta Clipper X, which was almost all off-the-shelf technology on a small budget. The rocket engines weren't reusable, but they were just driven at a much lower thrust, eliminating most of the wear allowing them to be reused anyway.

    Sadly, after being sold to NASA, the DC-X fell victim to its budget - it was so cheap to operate, it was run mostly in a seat-of-the-pants fashion. During its last flight, a technician forgot to plug in the hydrolic hose to extend one landing gear (it had four), so when it landed, it simply toppled over.

    Still, when NASA was looking for its last "replace the shuttle" program, it (or the larger Delta Clipper Y version) was one of three proposals - the other two were the Lockheed VentuStar, and a re-worked Space Shuttle. Although the two that lost were based on working technology, the main goal at NASA was for new technology development, not product development, so the riskiest project was funded (Lockheed's).

    It didn't fail, in NASA's view - the innovative engines were developed, and aerodynamic studies performed. They just ran out of money and decided to stop it (the composite fuel tank technology was not completed). An end product wasn't really the goal for them - in the end of the program, Lockheed would have been responsible for building the actual vehicle, operating it, and marketing launch services - NASA would just be another customer. It was Lockheed's choice not to without the NASA funded prototype complete to show investors.

    In my opinion, the DC-Y was the best choice - no new technology, just build the prototype and go. But it the program had succeeded, I would have been wrong, so blame doesn't work unless you know the future ahead of time.

  54. Re:Space pessimism, or "where's my damn moon colon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    I would have to agree. The US is entering the next version of the Vietnam era, the endless war on terror. The cash is going to all the guns stuff and the the space program can go suck.

  55. Popular (but flawed) Science by el+borak · · Score: 1
    From the article:
    Gryphon's innovative propulsion system uses liquid oxygen, drawn and compressed from the air, as fuel.

    Oxygen as fuel? Eek!

    --
    An imperfect plan executed violently is far superior to a perfect plan. -- George Patton
  56. Re:Space pessimism, or "where's my damn moon colon by DMUTPeregrine · · Score: 1

    Then we had damn well better find some oil on mars! Hey, it could have had some life at one time.... Probably not enough though.

    --
    Not a sentence!
  57. Why not launch from under a host aircraft? by Morgaine · · Score: 1

    It seems a bit odd that the advocates for each type of design never seem interested in combining their approaches for a more effective hybrid.

    Using a host aircraft to take your otherwise single-stage-to-orbit flyer part of the way up may be unsexy, but it provides a significant gain in various launcher design parameters and the safety of a tried and tested technique. (Safer for crew too, not just for the accountants.)

    It would be damn nice to see fewer purity advocates and more genuine engineers in this area.

    --
    "The question of whether machines can think is no more interesting than [] whether submarines can swim" - Dijkstra
  58. Then why was 60s technology cheaper? by EccentricAnomaly · · Score: 1

    "No. The problem is the 1970s technology made them too high maintenance."

    Yeah, well then they should have used 1960s technology. Saturn V rockets were cheaper to launch than Shuttles and they outperformed shuttles. Suyuz rockets are cheaper than shuttles. The Shuttles are the result of some cold war political goal to best the soviets by trying to build a reusable rocket.... If they would have set out to build a cheaper rocket they would have stuck with expendibles.

    The orbital space plane is finally setting out cheaper as a major design goal. Oddly, it turns out that the Apollo command module would meet the OSP requirements, and one of the teams is proposing rebuilding the command module as their entry into the OSP competition.

    --
    There are 10 types of people in this world, those who can count in binary and those who can't.
    1. Re:Then why was 60s technology cheaper? by Wyatt+Earp · · Score: 1

      60s technology was cheaper because it was throw away.

      It's kind of like a plastic milk jug vs a glass milk jug.

      Sure the plastic is cheaper, but you throw it away and it's not reusable.

      The glass is reusable and it's better for the enivronment, but it's much more expensive and it's fragile.

      Sure if I drop a full plastic milk jug on the floor it'll shatter, but a full Saturn V is just as fragile. But after the fuel is gone, the Saturn V is just an empty tank to throw away.

      Shuttle is like a really fancy glass milk bottle, it's always fragile.

    2. Re:Then why was 60s technology cheaper? by EccentricAnomaly · · Score: 1

      If throw-away is cheaper, why not use throw-away? The exhaust from the shuttle's solids does more damage to the environment than a (LOX-LH) Saturn V launch including whatever rocket parts end up in the ocean.

      A Saturn V could lift the space station in much fewer launches than the space shuttle... which would be an even greater cost savings, and a bigger plus for the environment.

      My whole point is that a multiple stage expendable rocket is the optimal way to do space launches as long as you're using chemical rockets. If we figure out fusion rockets, then maybe a reusable rocket makes sense... but until then, projects like the X-33 are fool's errands.

      I think Beal aerospace was on the right track in designing expendible rockets to uses cheap technology and non-toxic fuels. Too bad the economics weren't worked out.

      --
      There are 10 types of people in this world, those who can count in binary and those who can't.
    3. Re:Then why was 60s technology cheaper? by mfrank · · Score: 1

      Jeez, if throwaway is cheaper, throw it away. Giv e the $200 million you save each launch to the Audobon Society if you think that dropping Saturn V stages into the middle of the Atlantic is worse than dropping an external fuel tank.

      Technology purely for technology's sake is lousy engineering. Good engineering always takes cost into account. Especially when it's taxpayer money.

      And one of the main problems with shuttles are that they're OVER 20 FRIGGIN YEARS OLD. Corrosion and cracking are major problems because of their age. When you have throwaways, you don't have that problem, and you have the opportunity for continuous incremental improvement.

  59. sheesh! by Cid+Highwind · · Score: 1

    Note to mods:
    My angry pre-coffee ranting is almost never worth a +4: insightful!

    --
    0 1 - just my two bits
  60. You could have gone to Mars... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...for the cost of the Iraq war.

    Our priorities are inward these days, not outward, to all our detriment.

  61. They are. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Actually, alot of talk has focused on using revamped Apollo capsules as interim launch vehicles and especially escape pods for the ISS. I don't have the link but it should be on Google News.

  62. one way of financing the space program by g4dget · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    That would be one way of financing the space program: set things up so that the only way the RIAA could stop P2P file sharing is by sending manned spacecraft or very intelligent probes to Mars.

    So, what about it? Let's put a solar-powered P2P node on Mars with 100G worth of MP3s and some simple defensive capabilities. Then, let's see how long it will take th RIAA to launch a 20 man crew to Mars to track down and kill the thing.

  63. So emulate them by BerntB · · Score: 1
    You could easily emulate the old computers today to keep the investment in software...

    (-: It will probably be possible to emulate the old computers at a gate level before NASA even reaches a decision on a new computer... :-)

    --
    Karma: Excellent (My Karma? I wish...:-( )
    1. Re:So emulate them by Junks+Jerzey · · Score: 1

      You could easily emulate the old computers today to keep the investment in software...

      As long as the emulation includes microsecond accuracy for interrupts and such, fine.

  64. Targets by Cackmobile · · Score: 1, Insightful

    I agree with most of the posts here. NASA should have a big unmanned heavy lift rocket and a smaller SHUTTLE for humans. George W should do a speech like JFK and aim for Mars and a permanent base on the Moon. That would stimulate interest in space. Also he could use it to hide other problems in his administration (sorry but there always has to be something in it for the politicians).

    If we got to the moon in 69 how far could we get now. It needs to be highly funded to. I can't remember who said it but its a golden quote.

    'We are going to the moon in a spacecraft made by the lowest bidder'

    We need to get away from that mentallity. Award the contracts on ideas/quality. I'd would mind spending more money on space and less on Defence/Iraq occupation.

    --
    -- Karma Karma Karma Karma, Karma Chameleon - Boy George
  65. geo-thermal energy??? by alienmole · · Score: 1
    Use geo-thermal energy to power such a mag-lev launcher thing... I find that preferable.

    Uh - where's that kind of geo-thermal energy going to come from? Oh, I get it - you must be talking about sticking a vehicle in a volcano and artificially triggering an eruption. POW! Seattle is buried in lava, but a melted blob of steel will have been launched into space. Woohoo!

  66. Re:Doesn't make sense without large launch schedul by mfrank · · Score: 1

    Yeah, especially when you only launch five times a year.

  67. Re:Doesn't make sense without large launch schedul by Razor+Blades+are+Not · · Score: 1

    Is this the chicken or the egg ?

    In other words- did the high cost of transport into space deter potential customers ? Would a cheaper and more frequent launch schedule improve demand ?

    Of course, since the Shuttle never attained that goal, we can't know what might have happened if it had lived up to its original intention.

    I tend to agree though. It's like that XP design strategy "You'reNeverGonnaNeedIt".. in other words - don't bother building it till the demand for it exists.

  68. Political expenses, continued by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Furthermore, people seem to continue to think that NASA is there to provide science and put people in space. It isn't. Its function is as a paramilitary subsidy for the American aerospace industry. Its upper ranks are all industry, bureaucrats and air force - very few scientists. If an administration would shake up NASA and pressure Congress to quit using it as easy pork, we would have a men on Mars in 5 years.
    But it isnt easy to waste your precious weekly sound bites on NASA, especially when theres fear or recession scoring high in the polls.