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More Linux Predictions for 2004
An anonymous reader writes "Experts, shmexperts - it's time for the Linux community's own predictions, felt the editors of LinuxWorld Magazine. Prognostications in their Jan 2004 round-up cover media players ('turning your phone into an iPod will be hot by the end of 2004'), IPOs ('Of course, LinuxCertified, Inc'), and MS ('Microsoft will start an intensive campaign to promote their Longhorn technology as Linux standards compliant') - that last is one from Samba's John Terpstra." The original story was back in November.
I predict that Kernel updates will prevent me from having a 365days uptime this year :(
Sun and IBM will be considered the biggest Linux players by the end of 2004, and that Linux will be installed on Mac like numbers of corporate desktops (corporate not techy).
I also predict the return of thin-clients to the corporate environment, especially in large outsourcing contracts.
An Eye for an Eye will make the whole world blind - Gandhi
Linux, for me, peaked in usability/reliability in 1999. It's still quite useful, but I began experiencing many more compatibility problems since that point.
I have a video card whose driver is closed. I've got multiple peripherals that are only partially implemented because manufacturers for some reason are reluctant to release information to developers. It's great as-is, don't get me wrong, but participating on the Internet has gotten much harder as everybody decides to go proprietary and tug in different directions.
For example, Flash runs slower on Linux; so slow that it causes the sound to go out of sync (related bug that also seems to bite some Windows installs: this applet and those coded like it have audio that is too quiet). Java is still a real pain to get working right. Maybe the greatest thing that's happened this year is Mozilla/Firebird, but I'm running it without add-ons!
I believe only great things are to come, what with Linux having reached 2.6.0, and greatly appreciate all the developers have done for it. Now, I think it'd be nice if others began to support it.
Try not. Do or do not, there is no try.
-- Dr. Spock, stardate 2822-3.
2004 will be a year for delivery-on-promise and return-on-investment. The halo is off and linux will have to prove itself by the same measures other IT components are judged. Fortunately, linux will continue to leverage huge cost benefits, huge mindshare benefits, and a rising tide of anti-Microsoftism. that said, lofty valuation for RedHat and Novell will likely come into question sometime soon.
Seen Google's new logo?
I think the general uncertainty in the market will prevent 2004 from being any more the Year of Linux than 2003 was. Not to say there wasn't any growth in the last year or that there won't be more this next year.
I certainly think that Microsoft sending out numerous free copies of Small Business Server 2003 shows that they are taking Linux much more seriously than previously. And I think when we hit 2005 and companies have to make a big decision either way that if the Linux offerings by then for the small shop and desktop have improved their UIs so that virtually anyone can setup Linux on their current machines as easily as or more easily than a Longhorn upgrade, THEN you will see the mass migration.
FWIW...
SCO will be forced to show their (nonexistant) hand in 2004 and the gig will likely be up. SCOX will get hammered as the speculators realize SCO is about to get laughed out of court with no remedy and huge legal bills looming.
As for the desktop, I suspect 2004 will see KDE and GNOME work more closely together via freedsktop.org thus making most flame wars irrelevant as interoperability will be vastly improved.
Have you accually seen M$ code?
Considering that they don't let people look at it I don't think you have seen it. Then again the entire point is that you can look at the code.
Why are you so angry? What is the real reason?
Predicted that some 13 years ago.
Where is that guy who'd die defending what I had to say when I need him?
Will not happen.
Why, because RMS is too busy canning the HURD OS project lead because of doc license issues. The lead wanted a free license and RMS wanted a much more restrictive license.
... hired by Microsoft. RMS and ESR will join the SCO legal team. Bill Gates will get even fatter. Steve Ballmer will resign from MS and join some wicked monkey-dance group.
slashdot.org will be bought by Fox News. CowboyNeal will become a Fox News Anchor.
The world will collapse.
I've grown to like the RPM system which is so widely used in the Linux world. One of the nicest aspects of RPM (and perhaps its least used feature) is the way you can manage installed packages. RPM lets you track what is installed. It allows you to verify what is intalled (check for permissons, md5sums, size, etc). It keeps track of versions. It is a breeze to uninstall packages. RPM is far more powerful than many people realize.
That being said, what approach does Slackware take to accomplish similar tasks?
And when you install stuff, you'll have to search the internet for all required .dll files - or the sources thereof, and compile them and put them where your appication install routine expects them! That'll go over really well with grandma!
You'll also have to build your own printing system and manually edit your registry whenever you want to change anything!
"Would it kill you to put down the toilet seat?" -- Maya Angelou
- Mandrake 10
- SuSE 10
- Slackware 10
- Fedora Core 2
- Lindows 5
- Gentoo 2004
- Knoppix 4
- Debian 3.1. Ooops, thats delayed until 2010
:)
Desktops- Xfree86 4.4
- Xouvert
- KDE 3.2
- Gnome 2.6
- XFCE 4.1
- More Boxes
Applications- Mozilla 1.6
- Mozilla bird collection
- OpenOffice 1.2 or 2.0
- Nvu
- Evoloution 2
- Gimp 2
- KDevelop 3
- Mplayer 1.0
Look forward to these, I know I am waiting for Mandrake 10, I am currently trying out the new snapshotHURD with the GNU operating system is called "useless waste of hard drive space"
As far as hotkeys, why would you want to standardize them? I can define any key to do what I want currently with my distro (SUSE). Different people work in different ways. Why restrict them to what you think should be standard.
Your "frequent tasks" comment doesn'r provide any examples, but you could look back to hotkeys to provide solutions.
my prediction is that at least one ultra simplified *nix distro (other than OSX) will make a bit of headway into the average home user demographic, but just a bit.
I know how to change my screensaver. Is that sort of like the same thing?
The surprise isn't how often we make bad choices; the surprise is how seldom they defeat us.
tar -zxvf is now automated by a tool called 'swaret', which is an apt-like utility, that downloads/decompresses the tarball, and then work's out dependencies, and download's anything you need. There is pkgtool for tarballs in the slackware format, however it doesnt dependency check.
-Adam
#!/bin/csh cat $0
I think we're on the brink of the collapse of Microsoft's office suite monopoly. There's a lot less lock-in with office than there is with windows, so it's much easier for people to switch to open office.
Microsoft's pricing and online activation system has already pretty much removed office from consumer pc's. People who used to take cds home from work are doing without, and it's only a matter of time until the word about open office gets out. I'm not claiming that open office is as good as microsoft office, but it's good enough, I think.
I think that microsoft is making one of the biggest mistakes in its history in the way it prices office. The strategy seems to be aimed, as near as I can tell, at keeping corporate revenues high while allowing MS to cut prices for low end consumer machines.
A corporate workstation with xp pro and office pro pays microsoft almost 3x what a consumer user with xp home and works pays. I don't think that reflects costs or utility to the customer.
The most useful part of what people pay microsoft for comes from xp home -- it gives you the ability to run the huge library of windows software, access to the huge array of hardware device drivers, and core networking tools. What you get, for the buck, from jumping to xp pro or adding office on to the back, provides a lot less utility for each dollar spent.
If you decide that the corporate market can bear substantially higher prices than the consumer market, and if you notice that the main differences between a corporate user and a home user is office, then loading up the costs on the office side makes sense. I think that's what they're doing, and I think it's a fundamentally unstable pricing scheme.
So I predict that we're going to see corporate workstation users going with xp home and open office. A lot of computers that have been sold with $375 worth of microsoft software on them will now be sold with $94 worth of microsoft software on them.
MS-Office still makes sense for a lot of people. If you run exchange server, and want to use outlook as a groupware client, it makes sense. Excel users who earn a lot are going to get the spreadsheet they know and want, no one's going to tell a $150k/year guy to learn a new spreadsheet. But those types of users don't add up to a monopoly.
If the office monopoly begins to crack, it will be a really big deal. It will be a decline in a core microsoft business, and will suggest that perhaps the best days are behind them. And it will be the result of an open source project.
Windows to linux is a very wrenching change, in a million little ways. But MS-Office to Open Office is a lot more doable.
I think that's where MS's empire will first start to crack.
I've been reading the Linux predictions for every new year, and every year, time passes and nothing revolutionary happens.
I remember in 1998 when Linux was supposed to "surpass Windows on the desktop." I've been hearing it every year since, as well as Linux being "desktop-ready."
Please, hurry up! I really, really want to use it and not be forced to go to OS X for a UNIX desktop. But I have a feeling we'll be stuck in GNOME/KDE world for another 5-10 years.
"Sufferin' succotash."
Here's a thread at Ars' OpenForum giving their predictions. whiprush's initial post is very insightful.
Can you not run it in chroot mode like BIND 4? This would mean that you could have a "slash"var/run directory specifically for BIND in whatever directory you get it to chroot to.
I run the OpenBSD version, and it's configured to chroot to /var/named. Interestingly that's where it stores the named.pid file too, so obviously what BIND9 does I can't say...
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
him, IBM, and hp/Compaq... some of the largest corp. in the industry...
That's great and all, but I have to ask: What the hell does that have to do with "Linux Predictions for 2004"?
Congratulations! You received the coveted -1 Funny moderation. HAND.
Anyone else notice ads for other companies (like Microsoft) have disappeared off of Slashdot, replaced by ads for OSDN services (OSDN Personals, OSDN "PriceGrabber", etc)?
I totally respect Slackware, and I think it's good for 'the community' to have it, I have to add that RPM does this as well. .debs have got the same functionality.
A source RPM (.srpm) is a CPIO archive containing, ao., the original tar + the patch(es) the packager have applied to them. This way you can create an RPM of a newer version without losing the enhancements/modifications your distribution has made to them, just like you did with Slackware. I suppose
After the whole redhat/fedora thing I started looking around and tried out slackware, debian, fedora, and freebsd. I pulled out an old machine that wasn't beeing used and did fresh installs. The first thing I tried was slackware, and it was great. There were some quirks with partitioning, but I could break out into the shell and do it manually. I was hooked. Next when I tried debian, I knew slackware was the real thing (worst installer I've used in years).
Next I tried freebsd and the damn thing was rock solid. Most of my previous expierence was with IRIX and AIX machines, which help make slackware feel "right." However, when I started playing with freebsd it felt "more righter." Moreover, it was clear that slackware was trying hard to feel like BSD. I quickly realized that I would rather use the original!
When I tried fedora I was pleasantly surprised. Nobody came to my door to rape my cat and beat my wife or anything. Also, the desktop is nice and the support quite broad. The result is that I am now using Fedora on my desktop machines and will be converting my server over to freebsd.
After finally taking a look at freebsd I finally understand what some folks mean when they say the right tool for the job. I have really fallen for the mix of freebsd on a server and linux on the desktop. Also, I think that fedora will do well once it gets a second hearing. I just hope that they move a little slower than the proposed 6 month turn around time...
I used to use Slackware, and one of the reasons was the fact that things were done sensibly, as you describe. I think you'd like Gentoo, which is what I've been using recently.
Well, for me 2004 will be another year with RedHat 8.0. Stupid $80 SuSE 8.2 set I got for my birthday hangs on booting on my laptop (Sony PCG-FRV25). The same happens with the 9.0 live eval cd. Damn.
I have gas, but my car uses petrol.
...Steve Ballmer gets drunk and decides to open source all of Microsoft's products.
dude, get out from underneath that rock once in a while...
The Linux community will still fail miserably to work together to present the world's mainstream desktop users with a serious alternative to Windows. Linuxites will still focus on how far Linux has come (a long, long way by any rational measure) instead of how short it falls in terms of compatibility and overall usability. As long as that's true, Bill Gates can keep building %50M houses and laughing at the Linux ankle-biters.
I put the mute on the speakers before clicking the link because I'm a good little Slashdotter who knows better and then opened it in a new window with my fingers poised on "Alt+F4" and then I see CUTE LITTLE SEAL ANIMATION AWWW HOW CUTE! So I figure OH OK THIS IS LEGIT AND I WANT TO HEAR WHAT THE CUTE WIDDLE SEAL IS SAYING OH I WUV YOU! And then I take the mute off and BRAGGH WWW.ANALSEX.COM out the FUCKING SPEAKERS and now EVERYONE IN THE OFFICE IS STARING. FUCKER FUCKING FUCK FUCK FUCK I FUCKING HATE YOU ALL ARHGHHGHGGHGHH!H!H!!!!!!1~`~~tilde~``!!!!!oneoneon eeleven~~`~~
Microsoft's pricing and online activation system has already pretty much removed office from consumer pc's. People who used to take cds home from work are doing without, and it's only a matter of time until the word about open office gets out. I'm not claiming that open office is as good as microsoft office, but it's good enough, I think.
Many of my customers allow their entire offices to use Remote Desktop to allow users to reach their desktops from home or the road. No extra license is needed in these cases. Windows XP is becoming a no-brainer upgrade for many many people.
If you want to run XP, install XP Gestures is a geek fad, most 'normal' users have never heard of this and never will. The simple dropdown menus are well known and appreciated, tried and true. We don't need to re-invent the wheel, but to improve on it.
The 'radial pie menu' would be the most logical next step...if it can be kept from being intrusive and ugly. I really don't find it difficult to move the mouse around, no matter how far across the desktop I must go...
"Some things have to be believed to be seen." - Ralph Hodgson
RedHat will be aquired by Novell.
It's set up like bind4 was, but you've got the bind9 named.conf file instead of named.boot
One odd thing I noticed, though, was that on my nameservers, I needed to set the debug level to 3 or higher for answer requests (and submitted a bug report about it, etc)
I predict that predictions made for 2004 will be no more accurate than the predictions that were made for any other year, and we should all stop wasting our time.
People wouldn't make so many predictions if they were forced to wear a signboard at the end of the year with a list of all the predictions they made that didn't come true. Say, that sounds like an idea....
"Destroy science and religion. Science would re-emerge exactly the same; but not religion." - Penn Jillette, paraphrased
Nope. I've been doing it for a while. Also, Slashcode eats BASE64 better than uuencode. Something with the lameness filters and junk characters.
-- akedia
I predict that Linux will continue to be the small bit player that it has always been and still is today, buoyed by technical people who believe technologically superior products will prevail today's economy.
...
I predict that more and more people will realize that the licensing cost of software is an extremely small portion of the cost of maintaining business systems for corporations, and that the same people will become more puzzled by what OSS means and how it improves their P&L.
I also predict that Linux zealots will continue to predict that this year will be the year of world domination for Linux, just like they did in 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999,
>What the hell does that have to do with "Linux Predictions for 2004"?
From the sounds of it, another Linux-user will remain a virgin in 2004.
Overrated.
What do you mean, 'starting to'? Or is your post itself a re-post?
It looks normal now, but I assume you mean the 2004 new year's image that has now been archived with the other holiday logos.
HIV Crosses Species Barrier... into Muppets
Which distributions will show the greatest growth in 2004?
I was surprised that Mandrake didn't make the list. Mandrake in my experience is one of the easiest distributions to install and use and has made some impressive contributions over the last year (9.2, MandrakeMove). Still I have to admit I haven't tried SUSE so maybe I'm missing out on something...
The only thing that will stop you from fulfilling your dreams is you. - Tom Bradley
I stand by my statement - in 2004 people who are making investments in linux will get over simply adopting what is in the limelight and start judging linux as an IT investment.
shmexperts must refer to experts of shared memory -- what exactly does that have to do with predictions of the future?
I predict that a new algorithm for thread-safe access to shared memory will be developed using either semaphores and spin-locks. But them, I'm no expert.
"But actually trying to use m4 as a general-purpose langage would be deeply perverse" --ESR
Also you are not mentioning Cairo at all, and I believe this will be a huge X enhancement in 2004/5 whenever it comes along.
As for apps, I continue to advocate Gnumeric and AbiWord, which I believe are superior to their less-polished looking OpenOffice equivalents.
What the hell does that have to do with "Linux Predictions for 2004"?
Ummmmm, I predict that parent post will appear in 2004, just as it did in 2003?
Just working from memory mind you and even predictions about the past are risky, but it's kind of a hard post to forget given the specific detail it contains.
KFG
Our brainy heroine and penguin loving paralegal babe, PJ at Groklaw, posted an article covering some New Year's trend spotting. Some of the goodies:
/., but I like the compilation of them as a converging threat to Microsoft's paradigms that may cause significant rethinking in 2004.
:-)
1. Invester's Business Daily makes up its Top 10 Tech Stories of the year without mentioning Microsoft in any context.
2. A speculation comes from Chris Gulker in an IT Managers Journal article that Microsoft will introduce an MSLinux when Longhorn turns out to be unsellable. (Good thing or bad thing? I think good, if it happened.)
3. The example of Smart Displays, where per-user licensing inhibits even Microsoft's innovation, as cited in a Register article:
"The final nail in its coffin was Microsoft's absurd decision to kow-tow to the tin god of its licensing agreements. If you took your smart display downstairs, nobody in the den with the computer could use it. Single user licence, repeated Microsoft marketing droids. 'We can't compromise our standard licensing policy."
4. From the counter example of what can be, in the MagicBike project of the Parsons School of Design, PJ muses: "The idea is, when everyone gets to play, innovation is the result. Innovation doesn't come from money or walled-in projects, although money can help implement ideas. Innovation comes from people, and as George Bernard Shaw once pointed out, talent can show up simply anywhere, where you least expect it. The lower the barrier to entry, the more likely you are to get wonderful ideas. It's one reason I keep it possible to leave anonymous comments on Groklaw, despite the down side to that."
5. Vince Cerf's vision of the ubiquitous net is cited, reaching even to other planets.
PJ concludes: "Yes, [Microsoft] must adapt in order to be part of the future. I think it's a given that no one wants a wireless product that can only legally connect to one PC predetermined during setup. Not after somebody sent the mayor an email from a bike in Union Square station in NYC. Or even read about it. Once you have the concept and you see what is possible, you know what you know, and Brand X doesn't work for you after that. Like the song says, there's nothing like the real thing."
I know most of these points have been previously featured on
Besides, I think I have a crush on PJ...
Any technology distinguishable from magic is insufficiently advanced. - Geek's corollary to Clarke's law
Linux is a buzzword now, like outsourcing and utility computing. It will happen because of the hype. People will probably back off later where it turns out to be a stupid idea. For the moment, though, adoption won't be slowed just because it can't deliver.
What Linux standards ? How many differnet "Linux" distros are compliant with these standards ? what are they ?
Furthermore, how would it benefit Microsoft to tout that "longhorn is compliant with xx". Microsoft already has source level compat with much free software via the Services For Unix Interix SDK. Windows can be an NFS client or server with SFU. CIFS interop between linux and windows could be better I suppose, but my feeling is that samba needs to move upwards, and microsoft has little incentive to move downward to acheive this.
I guess i'd just be curious to know where this statement came from. It sounds mostly like a "wouldn't that be nice" without a lot of thought behind it.. like an emotional victory rather than something of technical significance..
My opinions are my own, and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
When I heard that one of Microsoft's top execs was quoted as saying "Think India. Think to yourselves, "what can I outsource today?"" My response is "Linux. Where can I replace Windows with it today?"
--- Jump!! Fire!! Bullet time!! - Lego version of the Matrix
There was evidence to prove that Overly Critical Guy is a lyingcocksucker, but he deleted it. Think independently.
Based on what I see, RH will loose a lot of its (former) users to Debian.
Unfortunately somehow the program got installed on her system and "stole" the .doc file extension association (hidden by default of course) causing days of lost time getting her assignments submitted.
Obscure file formats and clipboard formats pay dividends for MS lockout it seems. It's a pity monopolies are allowed to do whatever they want in the USA.
Think about some of the programs you need to boot a Linux system to a reasonable command line:
- init
- /bin/sh
- fstab
- mount, passwd
- glibc, ld-linux.so.2
- ls, cp, mv, ln, rm, ldd, dd
- tar, gzip, mke2fs, fsck
- an simple editor (vim minimal?)
- a kernel
for your disk and root file system.
It is not a whole lot of stuff. You could tar that stuff up from a working system. Heck, you can find enough of that stuff on Tom's boot/root floppy. You can take that stuff off of any Linux system a get a boot prompt with not much effort. Main gotchas are to be sure to editWhen was the last time you installed windows. Anaconda is a much better install system that the windows install system is. It is much easier to install a linux distro which uses anaconda that it is to install the windows operating system. The difference is in the configuration. It is much easier to point and click your way to configure things for some reason than to edit text files. It just makes more sense for those who don't care about anything else but the gui.
Don't waste time... procrastinate now!
But I heard that when HURD comes out in 2038, it will only support 64K of RAM and reel-to-reel tapes...
The Munchen (Munich) migration project sets of. :-)
:-(
Sideeffect: That SuSE guy I met last year asks me and my team to join and take care of some data migration and we make heavy loads of Euros as subcontractors to SuSE/Novell.
All in all, Linux reaches critical mass in germany. More and more vendors and service providers start to recognize Linux as an OS. More and more PCs come without preinstalled Windows. Perhaps the first mass PCs come with Linux preinstalled.
Negative side effects: We see IT idiots and money-rakers hoping on the Linux bandwagon, trying to make a quick buck, tarnishing everyones image and spoiling the fun. The dickheads that should stay with M$ join Linux/OSS aswell.
We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
"First, the linux installer must be as easy as windows."
Err, that's upside down. Linux installer is already a lot easier than Windows. As anoyone who's had to reboot 6 times to install Windows' drivers knows...
Usabilty is also good. There are some fancy advanced features, many of which have been introduced to windows to compensate for other flaws, and some of which are geniunely useful. However, most of these just lead to potential confusion when dealing with an average user. For instance, if a gesture opens an application, then the user must be careful not to make that gesture. Anyone who has worked with casual users know the importance of not overloaded the system with redundant features.
Which leads to three important conclusions. First, most users do not want to do installations at all. like Windows and MacOS, *nux machines must be already pretty much set up at the factory, and only require minimal setup by the user. This is hard to do right now due to lack of *nix demand and MS licensing, but, as Sun has shown, it can be exploited. It is not that installation is hard, it is that it is required at all.
Second, *nix has to be usable by people who now use windows. The basics have been in the marketplace for 10 years, and are largely implemented. The bells and whistles are good, but cannot be confusing to the new user.
Third, corporate is the taget. Many people get thier experience from corporate. Many people get thier tech support from corporate. Many people get thier software from corporate. If the office runs *nix,it is much more likely the home will as well. If the home can buy a machine that already has *nix installed.
"She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
Installing linux is easy. Even installing a hard to install distro such as debian isn't hard. Installing SuSe or Mandrake is easy enough that my MOTHER could do it. It's easier than installing windows. Fuck man, just having to type in the cd-key in a win2k install (and having to retype it a few times b/c you made mistakes) makes installing windows harder. Plus, 99% of the time on a modern computer your gonna hafta go out and get drivers for your video card to get it to display more than 16 colors, get drivers for your sound card (although the chipset may be recognized, in windows sometimes that gives you some pretty bad sound lol, believe me i know).
Installing SuSe on my machine was sooo incredibly easy. All my hardware worked (granted i did not have 3d support built in, but this was a long time ago)...
There's one thing linux needs to play catch up on: installing software after your system is set up. package management (yes, i know, itsn ot hard, but for n00bs its VERY CONFUSING) is a totallly COMPLETELY FOREIGN FRIGGIN CONCEPT to anyone in the windows and mac world...it makes installing software appear to be much harder than it needs to be!
replacing it with NEW Folger's Crystals! (lets see if they notice the difference)
"I've been reading the Linux predictions for every new year, and every year, time passes and nothing revolutionary happens."
Interesting. I too have been following the Linux industry for many years, and perhaps my eyes are more open. For instance, the world's largest computer company fully positioning itself behind Linux and allocating $1 billion was certainly a "revolutionary" development.
Sun Microsystems getting a contract to deploy Linux on 500,000 - 1 million desktops in China was definitely "revolutionary". But you don't think those are?
Or was your poorly-worded, vague and ambiguous comment directed at actual desktop apps? Because, you see, Linux developers can't win with such people. There are plenty of small projects out there attempting to make a "revolutionary" desktop, but the vast majority of people want something that works similar to Windows. If all distros went with something like TreeWM, you'd be blasting the community for making things too unapproachable and strange.
In short, you lose. And normally I don't reply to sad trolls who clearly have nothing better to do in their lives, but this is just in case someone else is reading who really believes that IBM and Sun's moves weren't massively revolutionary.
I'll see your installer and raise you usability.
.99pl4. I have no need for point-and-drool interfaces.
It's actually OK if it's a bit hard to install. I really like the Knoppix approach. If they went one more step and had a slightly easier "full install" step, it would be fine.
But there is a problem. It's still very difficult to do some of the things that seriously need to be "instant-gratification" tasks.
Playing a DVD.
Writing a CDR.
ReadWriting a compact flash chip.
Easy ACPI suspend/resume on laptops.
Playing MPEG and other A/V formats.
2-track recording and wave editing.
Printing.
Wireless networking.
This stuff is still hard, and some of it is impossible depending on your hardware. I think there are serious deficiencies in basic usability, even for the seasoned linux fanatic. I have trouble with the items on my list, and I'm willing to work hard at it. I've been running linux since
-fb Everything not expressly forbidden is now mandatory.
Don't forget the three hours on the phone attempting to explain to the service tech, who does not share your native tounge, how this brand new shrink-wrapped copy of XP will not automatically register, even though you did not steal it.
Find coupons in Greeley
n/t
Silly OCG.
Microsoft's monopoly collapsed years ago, and it's obsolete anyways, since there are computers that cost less than $350.
ESR and the rest of the crew really have their hand on the pulse of the tech community.
Linux does continue to make modest but solid progress in the server area, but nothing close to the "world domination" bullshit we hear every year from the fan boys. Put a sock in it, you might get a few more servers this year, and that's about it. Oh, other than all the "revolutionary" stuff that nobody apparently wants.
Go Linux!
+2 YOU ARE A FUCKING GENIUS d00d. I also hit that camera with my nuts, so watch out.
In 2004 those (hard working) people over at KDE will change the K, in their name to some other letter. The letter K just comes up with images of crap in my head. ex. K-Car, K-mart (do they still exist anymore, there used to be one in my town but it went out of business) and KDE.
Just kidding, jeez, don't get all upset about it.
how do you do configuration management of Slackware installed packages?
huh? nobody needs configuration managment of installed packages.
Hell microsoft doesn't even have that. I cant go into add/remove programs and change it's install location, settings,etc....
an install package is to do install and uninstall... that is it.
I suggest you figure out what pkgtool and swaret is, they are dumbified installer interfaces to the superior slackware package design.
no, I remember posting statuphile pics to /. years ago, back when hot grits and natalie were new.
The halo is off and linux will have to prove itself by the same measures other IT components are judged.
Since Microsoft has set the bar rediculously low in terms of measurable and effective productivity, this won't be much of an issue.
Oh, wait -- what would I expect him to say about an OS which uses a demon as its logo. Sorry.
Evolution's next major upgrade will be very polished and featureful. I doubt any interest in Chandler (which appears to be perenially DOA anyway) will be left once we see the next Evolution release.
whatever happened to William F. Zachmann and his "Famous 13 Predictions"?
*sigh* Yet another post claiming what Linux needs to be and where it needs to go, seemingly without understanding the seperation from Linux and the desktop.
/. ideallists telling it what and where it should be.
"First, the linux installer must be as easy as windows."
I suggest you try actually installing RedHat or Mandrake compared to Windows. Windows installer is not anything ot be proud of. If you really want to see the example of how an installer should work, try letting Lindows just do it for you. Apart from looking much better than the windows installer, all these installers provide more flexibiliy while retaining an even more user friendly install that Windows. Gentoo and Debian and the like aren't made for being easy to use, basing your idea of a Linux install off of these just shows that you either don't know what is out there or are just trolling.
"Second the linux desktop has to surpass Windows XP in usability"
Again, this is not something that Linux needs to do, because it has already been done. I find my fluxbox desktop infinately more usable than a Windows desktop (or a gnome or KDE desktop for that matter).
A standardized hot-key interface already exists. It's pretty much the same as it is in Windows. Alt-first letter of the menu item. Some people choose not to implememnt this in their applications, same goes for the Windows community.
There already are programs to launch programs or perform other tasks using gestures. Take a look at xstroke. It doesn't come as default in a distro, because most people don't use gestures. This includes advanced users. A great deal of us Linux users try to use the mouse as little as possible, as a keyboard is quicker and more precise, and with customizable hotkey functionality can pretty much make your rat obsolete, which is a perfect reason NOT to force any standard hotkeys. Why include stuff only a few people are going to use? Just because it makes you happy and might impress a PHB who will still never use that functionality? Gesture users are a definate minority. I have yet to use the gestures plugin I downloaded and installed for Firebird, even though I took the time to customize my gestures.
If these are thing syou truly beleive Linux "needs" to become successful in your eyes, then build your own damn distro. Quit screaming that Linux's "needs" are identical to your own, because they are not.
All Linux "needs" to do is stay open and free in the same spirit it has always been, and the community will tailor Linux to suit their needs. It sounds like what you want is a free and open Windows. Linux was and is not created to replace Microsoft Windows, it has it's own goals which it will complete in its own time, and is doing fine without the 20000
Sorry for the rantings, but every time a comment like this comes along it boils my blood. Linux in my eyes has far surpassed Windows in every arena except for gaming, and the blame there lies with Game Developers, not Linux. Yes it took me some time and effort to get my ultimate desktop, and no matter what, it will take individuals time and effor to get the ultimate desktop, because it's a very personal experience. If you just want something that's standardized across platforms, pick a distro and a desktop and stick to it, but you will always have to make sacrafices.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. It's just that yours is stupid.
1) mplayer. xine. 2) xcdroast. 3) mount. 4) good point. 5) mplayer. 6) audacity? 7) cups. 8) doesn't Linux have drivers for some wireless rigs? As you can see from this list, I have found what I consider to be fairly usable solutions to most of what you list as usability issues. I think laptop support is probably the area where Linux needs the most work.
A significant portion of the hurdles in all of the above are due to problems that Linux has no control over. Peripheral makers who refuse to write Linux drivers or provide specs to helpful volunteers are one main component of this. Another prime problem is that makers of certain file formats refuse to release portable codecs for their formats. Then there is the ongoing legal risk inherent in working around these problems as Linux developers are subject to attack by companies wielding the clubs of the DMCA, copyright, patent, and trademark law.
My own experience leads me to believe that computer usability is related to user willingess to learn-- no matter what platform is involved. However, it's possible that my view is not representative for most people. After all, I have 20+ years of experience doing programming, RTFMing, etc.
Think of them as keyboard shortcuts for the mouse. And the fact that 'normal' users haven't heard of it is exactly why it needs to be done. They make life easier.
Work is punishment for failing to procrastinate effectively.
When the end comes for SCO it will be quick and drastic. Probably the entire management will resign in one day, with a bankruptcy soon following. The evidence is too flimsy and financial arrangements are too leveraged.
I cant predict the actual precipitating event or day, however.
Be sure to send an email to aries@ariesgeek.com and let him know how much you appreciate his wasted trolling. He's probably a GNAA member too, so any gay niggers should hit on him.
I figure I'll throw in my two cents:
1.) Package format becomes a hot topic. Discussion regarding a standard takes center stage. Work begins on a standard package format, a stable version is expected in 2005. Adoption of linux on the desktop continues to be slow.
2.) Resolution and refresh rate changing on the fly (ala Windows since 9x) will finally appear in desktop distros.
3.) NTFS read/write support will be sorted out using the NTFS driver from windows. Microsoft will not issue a patch that breaks compatibility, suprising more zealous MS haters.
4.) Gnome or perhaps Mozilla will have servers compromised. The compromise will be found quickly and dealt with quickly as well. Many will use the compromise to point out that UserLinux should have indeed used KDE.
5.) Not linux, but still a prediction. Apple releases some much hyped product with relatively large mind-share. Product is recalled due to design/manufacturing error. Apple faithful blame someone else; Apple stock and market share dip.
6.) Microsoft releases DirectX 10. Doom 3 is the only major linux-native game released in 2004.
7.) Adobe or Autodesk release linux versions of Photoshop or AutoCAD respectively. The released program is quite successful. Many businesses stop using Wine or switch over to linux for their workstations.
As many have pointed out, installing Linux is easier than installing Windows, an obvious result when you consider that installation is vital to get people to run Linux, while unneccessary for Windows.
To the average person, they buy a computer, plug it in, and Windows is running. That is "installation" for Windows. There is no way Linux is going to do that unless machines have it already installed when you buy it from the store.
You're full of shit. Do you enjoy the roller coaster of karma whoring then trolling? Does it get you a hard on?
I hope you [Ctrl+W] the [Win] on your [|].
Hotkeys. Give me a goddamn break, like that's an issue.
THIS THING CAN TURN ON A DIME, MACROSSZERO STYLE ALSO FUCK BETA, ~NYORON
When, when, when??? and no, don't say gimp, I want PSP7!
Where are the ESR predictions? The new year isn't the same without ESR proclaiming that Microsoft will fall within six months.
Je ne parle pas francais.
Yes, he's reposted at least two other copied comments here and here. Probably others too.
God I hate fucking people like you. Find ONE goddamn article that mentions that:
1. Claim that this version fixes all bugs, works perfectly and logically and will finally seal M$ coffin.
2. Claim that competing product X is dead.
3. Claim that this product is dead, since similar product X is obviously much superior.
Fuckwit
Anyone know what he's talking about?
...Steve Ballmer sobers up and decides to open source all of Microsoft's products.
+2 insightful for that?
Meanwhile, Linux is being evaluated by cities and governments around the world for use on their desktops?
No references to how Linux fails in "compatibility" or "overall usability".
That's "insightful"?
Your overreactive reply is amusing. I didn't claim that Linux didn't make progress this year, but I was merely pointing out that every year, I hear all these grand predictions about the leaps and bounds Linux will make, and at the end of the year, it feels like we've gone full-circle and are still chasing the tails of Microsoft, or upgrading to the latest point release of KDE, or whatever.
I don't deny those were great victories for Linux this year, but I'm talking about the predictions made.
Or was your poorly-worded, vague and ambiguous comment directed at actual desktop apps? Because, you see, Linux developers can't win with such people.
Sure, they can. I fully believe Linux will have a superior desktop in this decade. It's just taking a REALLY long time.
There are plenty of small projects out there attempting to make a "revolutionary" desktop, but the vast majority of people want something that works similar to Windows. If all distros went with something like TreeWM, you'd be blasting the community for making things too unapproachable and strange.
Yes, I would. What does TreeWM have to do with this? I want Linux to be the ultimate desktop. This means not working with something similar to Windows (while in the same breath, criticizing Windows and Microsoft in every article).
To the person who modded me as Troll: Next time, reply with your disagreement instead of censoring my opinion just because you don't agree with it. I'll rationally debate with you, believe it or not!
"Sufferin' succotash."
My Predictions for 2004 is that more companies are going to start porting there software over to Linux. I'm sure there are a lot of people here that read Slashdot would love to walk into Wal-Mart or CompUSA and pick up a box of software that has a little Tux logo on it. I don't see Dell and HP preloading PCs this year, but I'm sure they'll be gearing up for it in 2005. I figured if software companies don't port there software the community will come up or improve a free alternative, so users will benefit from this either way. I also have a feeling that more Linux users are going to buy games for the simple fact we have better video drivers then what we had in the past.
Automation and configuration programs are great and they are in every major distribution of Linux out there. I have friends come over surf the web, listen to music, use AIM and burn CDs which are the same things they do normally when they're at home. I even had a friend that was scared to use my computer just because it was running Linux, but after he got drunk at one of my parties he jumped on my system and started chatting on AIM. He didn't even realize he was using Linux, until I told him. My system is an old duel 400Mhz and I don't have any games on it. I plan on building a new system and I'm still going to run Linux. Why fix something that's not even broken? So when I build my new system I plan on installing Fedora Core 1. I might even install Windows 2K for games, but due to the fact I have a GameCube, Playstation 2 and Xbox I'm sure I could keep myself busy, besides I can only see myself installing Windows for only 1 or 2 games at the most. As for my old system I'll be turning that into a web server. Using Apt-get I'll be able to install and remove items easily. With the way things are going for Linux it's not like I'm looking for the fall of Microsoft more then I'm looking for walking into a store and seeing someone walk out with a system preloaded with Linux.
From Zero to Hero... Starbuck Zero
your website is teh crash3d!!!11 good job. dumbass.
I want Linux to be the ultimate desktop.
Are you supporting any of the existing projects or are you working on one of your own? Surely you aren't just a lazy whiner?
You're running BIND, you're best bet is not only to run it as a default user but to infact that jail the entire process.
SYSV would migrate into Win32? I can't.
They already have Unix Services for Windows, which provides any API/shell/command related stuff you're missing.
THIS THING CAN TURN ON A DIME, MACROSSZERO STYLE ALSO FUCK BETA, ~NYORON
Open Source, on the other hand, works according to another economic model, one which is not limited by profit-loss ratios and ROI. If you have people interested in it, you can create an internationalized version of a package for any audience. Now, there are still complicated technological issues (such as some of the really complex scripting systems in many of the smaller markets like SE Asia), but once we get past some of the difficult hurdles of creating truly flexible font and glyph servers and text rendering systems, we will see Linux and FOSS expanding into places where MS cannot hope to go. True, these won't bring in gobs of cash for Linux developers and ISV's, but I think we will see steady progress made. We will soon see Linux as the foundation for technological, and ultimately economic freedom for the majority of the world's governments and citizens.
Your Servant, B. Baggins
"it feels like we've gone full-circle and are still chasing the tails of Microsoft"
"We've"? Since when have you, OCG, been among the "we" supporting and backing Linux? You sound like so many, meandering around with your quasi-intellectual rhetoric, blasting Linux and then... when you realise this Linux thing _is_ going to be big, making a subtle about-turn.
You suck huge, massive sweaty panda scrotums, OCG. I'd pick some quotes from your posting history to show how this "I want Linux to succeed" image is complete nonsense, and how silly you look.
Get out more.
Linux needs more than a room full of engineers reworking the code how they see fit. These large distro companies and other software companies that make programs to linux on the desktop need to find regular people who don't frequent slashdot 17 times a day to get some input and feedback.
If the average users can't figure out how the installer works, they the installer should be rewritten. What makes windows and mac so nice is that installation of good commercial software is generally pretty easy. Everytime I use RPMs I think to myself how few people consider software a package and understand how it is broken into data files and executables. People think of software of something they buy in a box. These specialized distros like Lindows are on the right path for average computer users because they see the importance of making the software intuitive.
Another thing linux needs is marketting. I'm not talking about the regular marketting that kills everything else. Just a little reworking of the names of software. I don't think I'd recommend linux to any regular computer user because I know soon after that I'd get a phone call asking me
"what the hell does this mean?"
And to quell the responses, here is what those phone calls would entail: What the hell does
"apt get" mean? What the hell is an "RPM." What does a kernel version mismatch mean? What is lib.so.... mean and how do I get it? How to I get to the "shell". How do I run a script? Why do I care about the "source"? And "I put the disc in and nothing happened."
(*SIGH*) I use Evolution, and while I love it for email, and for personal calendaring, there still isn't a good *group* calendering server that I know of. Yes, I know there is the "Ximian Connector", but that still depends on Exchange, and is supposedly pretty crippled. (I don't have any personal experience on this, so feel free to correct me if you've used the Connector with great success!) I've seen a couple of commercial applications out there, but when you do more than simply scratch the surface, they are still pretty skimpy on features, and often beastly expensive when you start adding up expenses for a large operation.
I keep looking, hoping that the situation will change, but I haven't found anything to plug this hole yet.
Your Servant, B. Baggins
There was evidence to prove that Overly Critical Guy is a lying cocksucker, but he deleted it. Think independently.
The same thing we do every year Linus ... we are going to TAKE OVER THE WORLD!
Saying Java is nice because it works on all OS's is like saying that anal sex is nice because it works on all genders.
Great, you just described a source rpm, and very likely an deb source file.
BTW, its been like that... forever (for some sets of "forever")
(Note--This does NOT dis Patrick, quite the opposite, everyone else copied a good idea into their implementations)
Also, someone is plagarizing your posts, have seen a couple of dupes.
(Assuming YOU are a lawyer)
stable little business climate.
If it's irrelevant, why bother posting?
THIS THING CAN TURN ON A DIME, MACROSSZERO STYLE ALSO FUCK BETA, ~NYORON
BTW, nobody buys the "I'm just a poor guy who likes linux and wants what's best for everyone" gag. You're a MS apoligist and an opponent of all things open source. Give it up. Nobody believes you now that you're crying "wolf."
The last time I used Slackware, package management amounted to little more than tar -zxvf. Has that changed?
No, do you need it to?
One of the nicest aspects of RPM (and perhaps its least used feature) is the way you can manage installed packages. RPM lets you track what is installed. It allows you to verify what is intalled (check for permissons, md5sums, size, etc). It keeps track of versions. It is a breeze to uninstall packages.
Slackware allows you to do all of those things, and do it with standard shell tools.
The thing I like about Slackware's package management is that I don't have to learn a new tool to do everything.
Rom 3:12 They are all gone out of the way, they are together become unprofitable; there is none that doeth good, no, not one. Saints above! Even St. Paul predicts that FreeBSD is dying!
Good one. First belly laugh of the new year. Kudos.
(+1 Funny) only if I laugh out loud.
that linux will get some steam, but will face new legal concerns, IBM and sun will be sued by microsoft for imitating their gui, then gnome and kde will be sued in the whole ordeal, apple turns around and sues microsoft ripping off NexT
might not be that far.
but I predict this year will be the year of tech lawsuits as a new major player gets involved in the market.
I wouldnt be surprised if the GPL got overturned and claimed invalid by a well paid judge.
the shit with SCO last year might prove to be the stone in the pond that started the ripple effect.
SCO will win their court cases and own all Linux and Unix distributions. SCO will decide to sell Unix and Linux to Microsoft who will eventually phase them out. This will bring about the apocalypse and the end of civilization. Bill Gates will return to Hades to join his father Satan, mission accomplished.
Instead of building a better desktop installer, I'd rather see developers make a better application installer. Sure, OpenOffice may be easy to install, but most software gets posted online in the form of GPL'd code with limited instructions on how to compile the work. Sometimes the instructions work, sometimes they don't. Before someone pops off and replies, "You're an idiot if you can't get something to compile/install on Linux," maybe you should realize that the majority of PC users want something that they can double click and be done with.
Hmm... That's just Emerge with the no-compile option.
You need to restart your computer. Hold down the Power button for several seconds or press the Restart button.
Apple will open source the aqua desktop.
Oh, please provide some evidence for your wild claims.
I've been hearing it every year since, as well as Linux being "desktop-ready."
It certainly is desktop-ready. *IF* the applications are there, Linux takes over. Just look at the 3d-modelling world which has gone over to Linux almost completely. If the applications are not there, Windows stays in place, obviously. That's why all the gamers are running Windows and will do so for a while.
This has nothing to do with Linux on the technical side. Linux certainly is desktop ready and has been so for quite some time, no matter what Trolls like Overly Critical Guy claim. (Actually the Windows-GUI is quite primitive and horrible to work with once you are used to Unix-style copy/paste, 3-mouse button GUI-support and multiple desktops)
It all depends on the applications. As some cities migrate to Linux and governmental apps get ported to Linux, the migration gets easier, faster and cheaper for other cities and the migration accelerates.
Linux will take one market segment after another, it will take years, not just one year and governments and coroporations will be long running Linux before home users and gamers, just like WinNT was used long before in business than at home, but in the end Linux will take over the desktop just like it took over embedded systems and is taking over servers.
I remember people like Overly Critical Guy:
1993: Linux will never be useful for anything
1995: Linux will never be useful for anything except webservers
1997: Linux will never be useful for anything except webservers and fileservers
1999: Linux will never be useful for anything except for webservers, printservers, fileservers and clusters
2001: Linux will never be useful for anything except for webservers, printservers, fileservers, clusters and embedded systems
2003: Linux will never be useful for anything except for webservers, printservers, fileservers, clusters, embedded systems, 3d-modelling and mainframes
Overly Critical Guy, you look like the catholic church fighting science. You condemn Linux but have to take a little bit every year. Of course you never admit that you were wrong. Of course you never have any evidence (like for that ridiculous "Linux overtaking Windows in 1998" claim). And of course you don't realize that every year your beloved Microsoft loses one little bit of grip.
My prediction for 2005:
Overly Critical guy:
Linux will never be useful for anything except for webservers, printservers, fileservers, clusters, embedded systems, 3d-modelling, mainframes, government desktops and cellphones.
Yeah, sure. Debating with you is like talking to an undercover Microsoft sales representative and for all I know you might as well be. Wouldn't be the first time Microsoft is paying people to pollute web forums with shameless pro-MS propaganda.
I think the parent was supposed to be funny.... But, then again, I don't have any mod-points left :-)
"terrorism" and "pedophilia" are the root passwords to the Constitution
<i>Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. It's just that yours is stupid.</i><br><br> .sig seems oddly fitting.
In light of the granparent post (and yours), your
I have discovered a truly marvelous
I just installed kde3.2 cvs, and the new FSViewPart view mode certainly is innovative. It takes a bit to generate on my measly 450mhz, but its pretty neat.
True genius is grasping a situation like a peice of fruit, and peircing it just right so that it drains dry.
"but most software gets posted online in the form of GPL'd code with limited instructions on how to compile the work."
----------
You have to realize that in Linux, there is a seperation between software developers and distribution developers. Software developers make the code and release it on their website. They're good at making software, so that's what they concentrate on. Distro developers package software correctly and integrate it into their distribution. That's what they're good at. If you try to install software from source, then you're looney. When I want to install software, its a matter of "apt-get foo" and a link to foo shows up in my kmenu. Or, if I'm GUI inclined, I start up Synaptic (or soon, Kapture, yay!) and just double-click on the name of the application. Both are infinately easier than fussing around with InstallShield.
The problem is that some obscure software does not get packaged in a repository. This problem is almost non-existant in distributions with huge repositories like Debian. Certainly, anything the average user needs is in there.
A deep unwavering belief is a sure sign you're missing something...
Once you get the right tools, audio is a snap on Linux. I'd never go back to Windows.
Installing Fedora Core 1 was a total piece of cake. Detected hardware (admittedly quite old), selected applications (Open Office, Mozilla and a few games) and off I went. 1 reboot IIRC.
This thing about installers is becoming a myth. The only thing that really needs to be dealt with from what I can see is driver support.
I just got Redhat Linux 9 and that is one of the best Linux's
He is expressing lame and biased opinion (over-and-over again), which isn't based on facts but on half-assed bullshit and FUD. Being troll takes some creativity, plenty of humour and plenty of knowledge. He does not have any of it.
To prediction now: 2004 will be the most successful year for Linux and Free software so far. Platform has greatly improved and is mature, robust and dependable upon. Few available desktop offers are awesome (Fedora, Xandros, latest Mandrake and SuSE) and Linux will gain more share on this market as well. It seems that big corporate / government IS decision makers are finally willing to give Linux/OSS a real try, rather than to only listen. And you know what - that one try is all Linux needs - once you saw it going, you'll never go back to whatever you used before.
You can compare the Windows installer to the Linux installer all you want, but they don't do the same things. To be more accurate, compare the Linux installer to the combination of the Windows installer, the ATI/nVidia driver installer, the Creative sound card installer, the MS Office installer, and the installers of all the other useful Windows applications that don't come bundled with Windows that I've forgotten.
Really, Linux installers may seem cryptic at times, but they're mostly pretty good. <flamebait>Except for SlackWare--that installer's way too cryptic.</flamebait>
1. Driver support for Linux will grow considerably as manufacturers will see more geeks heading that way.
2. Open Office will grow, but will not make serious inroads. Back office techs will start using it, and I predict a more geeky mate or two will send me a .SXW in the next 12 months.
3. Porting of software to Linux will grow from major business vendors.
4. More companies running Oracle/SQL server will start using MySQL as a database for static data like archive viewing and MIS reporting.
5. A whole lot of Linux distros will fade away. Maybe this is a hope, and people can concentrate on making 4 or 5 excellent.
6. One of my non-geeky relatives will phone me about getting Linux.
7. SCO will lose big in their case against IBM.
8. A major computer player (maybe IBM or HP) will either partner or buy a distro and release it as a consumer Linux on a PC where the hardware and software have been tested to work together.
9. (More of a hope) There will be an Open Source video format (maybe theora) that will kill off the piece of shit that is Real Player.
You meant well, but you haven't showed me a way to move away from the tools that force me onto the Windows platform. I know about the sound software that's available, and I use some of it and I think it's great. But where we have the Gimp for graphics, which is almost good enough that we can talk to graphics guys with a straight face, there's precious little for the DAW.
-fb Everything not expressly forbidden is now mandatory.
It's called sarcasm. Look it up in the, what was it called, oh yeah, DICTIONARY.
If you modded the parent down, you must absolutely JACK SHIT about the kernel. You've ruined a perfectly good joke/retort that apparently you didn't get.
Good job, Mr. Know-it-all.
THIS THING CAN TURN ON A DIME, MACROSSZERO STYLE ALSO FUCK BETA, ~NYORON
I don't know a lot about it, but doesn't SUSE/Novell have this OpenExchange thing? I'd be curious to know how it compares, in the real world, to Microsoft Exchange.
.....it so doesn't take any effort to figure this out.
Linux 2.6 has ALSA. ALSA is a vast improvement over the shitty sound infrastructure that linux users have been hobbled with for the last x years. OSS? ESD? Cast them into the dustbin, spit in their general direction.... or allow them to burn in hell.
I expect a couple of things. One, decent audio players. See linuxaudio for a taste.
Two, more sophisticated audio applications, including the kind of audio-server-and-patches capable with JACK.
Three, serious competition to low-end or infrequently updated commercial software like cakewalk by free, non-commercial variants.
Hopefully, audio that doesn't suck will give a big boost to video editing apps on linux.
Sadly, things this year will not bring to linux:
1) A decent vector image program.
2) A decent page layout program.
3) Any creative apps from Adobe running native.
Sure, they can. I fully believe Linux will have a superior desktop in this decade. It's just taking a REALLY long time.
For me, Linux is the superior desktop already. It has been for the past 3 years. It's not as hideous or as insulting to use as WinXP, which others claim in all seriousness is "superior" to Linux desktops because of its "integration and usability". Whatever the hell that means. To each his own.
The majority of people who complain that the Linux desktop sucks is the ones who get the hang-ups over "integration" and the fact that Linux does not work like Windows does. For me, I couldn't care less about integration, and the fact that it doesn't work like Windows is a feature, not a bug.
"Backups are for wimps. Real men upload their data to an FTP site and have everyone else mirror it." -- Linus Torvalds
I think one of the results of the rise of Linux and the press for other Open Source software in 2004 will be that it will create a new opportunity for Microsoft! Microsoft can use the developments in Linux / Open Source to argue:
The server market is a separate and distinct market from the desktop market. Microsoft does not have a monopoly position in this market. The rise of Linux demonstrates this. And since the competition is free software, Microsoft may need to create product offering to try to compete. For example, a bundle of Win2k3 server / SQL server. hey will point to the use of Linux/MySQL or Linux/Postgres as the competition and the model they must compete with. Since this bundle benefits the consumer and since MS does not have a monopoly in the market, they may get to do this, legally. This kind of bundle could be devastating to Oracle and IBM in the DB business.
MS may also use the recent events in Israel and China to make moves on the desktop. They may need to go back to the judge and get approval, but they will have a stack of articles by experts and decrees by governments to use to convince the judge that there has been a radical shift in the market and that they should be free to make various technical moves / changes to the desktop OS.
The bottom line is that as Linux grows in 2004 it gives MS the legal basis it needs to counter-attack. More acquisitions. More bundles. Ties of OS and database. There are lots of things you can think of and the Redmond folks have a lot of good business minds to seize this opportunity. The short term impact of an MS counter-attack will likely be on its commercial competitors.
In the end, the market could move to more of a Microsoft / Open Source market, with the other commercial folks getting crushed. let's face it, no software company's business model is safe from open source. Right now some commercial folks see Open Source as a way to rein in MS. But we may also see folks start to team up with MS because and against Open Source because they will see that their own businesses are threatened.
It will start in 2004. 2005 will be the interesting year!
"The LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP/PERL/Python) environment will become more recognized as a foundational solution in 2004." -John M. Weathersby
I think PostgreSQL is more likely than MySQL, although I understand that leaves a less cool acronym (though I've seen 'linux apache mod_perl postgres').
From your post, I draw the conclusion that you disagree with my opinion simply because it is consistent over time. How is it lame and biased to point out that grand predictions for Linux are made every year and not always fulfilled? Do you wish to hear no criticism ever?
To prediction now: 2004 will be the most successful year for Linux and Free software so far. Platform has greatly improved and is mature, robust and dependable upon. Few available desktop offers are awesome (Fedora, Xandros, latest Mandrake and SuSE) and Linux will gain more share on this market as well. It seems that big corporate / government IS decision makers are finally willing to give Linux/OSS a real try, rather than to only listen. And you know what - that one try is all Linux needs - once you saw it going, you'll never go back to whatever you used before.
I've been hearing it since 1998. It's simply not true, and never fulfills itself every year in which I hear it. Sorry.
"Sufferin' succotash."
For me, Linux is the superior desktop already. It has been for the past 3 years. It's not as hideous or as insulting to use as WinXP,
Do you know how to change themes?
which others claim in all seriousness is "superior" to Linux desktops because of its "integration and usability". Whatever the hell that means. To each his own.
That means everything from cut-and-paste actually working to programs installing and removing themselves without resorting to underlying system package managers like RPMs.
The majority of people who complain that the Linux desktop sucks is the ones who get the hang-ups over "integration" and the fact that Linux does not work like Windows does.
Incorrect. The majority of people who complain that the Linux desktop sucks are ones who simply point out that it is poorly designed and not properly implemented. And, believe it or not, people desire an integrated system. I don't understand opposition to that.
The criticisms also stem from the fact that it is often TOO much like Windows. KDE, for instance.
For me, I couldn't care less about integration, and the fact that it doesn't work like Windows is a feature, not a bug.
I have yet to see any paradigm shift away from the Windows-like imitations any time soon.
"Sufferin' succotash."
It appears I have riled a frothing fanboy. Barring the fact that your rantings are amusing in themselves, I'll reply point by point to explain my perspective.
Oh, please provide some evidence for your wild claims.
You don't believe people were saying this in 1998? Every year, I have heard that "Linux will surpass Windows in the desktop," and it never does. This has been going on for many years, particularly on Slashdot. I don't need to provide claims for simple statements and opinion made years ago. It's common knowledge.
It certainly is desktop-ready.
No, it is absolutely, 100% not. What you see as "desktop-ready" is really a bunch of graphics blitted onto screen from a desktop environment on top of a window manager on top of a window library on top of xlib on top of X, all designed to make really cool screenshots for the backs of Linux distributions packaging, but when you actually grab the mouse to operate the thing, ultimately falls short. I still remember the first day I tried Red Hat 9, and GNOME's taskbar became stuck to the mouse cursor so that whichever side of the screen I moved to, the taskbar followed. Nothing fixed this, so I had to kill X, which screwed up the startup scripts. I laughed.
*IF* the applications are there, Linux takes over.
There are no apps.
Just look at the 3d-modelling world which has gone over to Linux almost completely.
Yes, the professional effects world has largely moved from SGI to Linux. That is not the general desktop market but a niche of the professional workstation market. They don't need actual functional desktop environments, because they're busy making movies with their computers.
If the applications are not there, Windows stays in place, obviously. That's why all the gamers are running Windows and will do so for a while.
Precisely. Also including the fact that drivers for Linux are horribly behind and that people are deathly afraid of the overly complex Linux filesystem structure, which is another example of reasons leading to acceptance. By that I mean, most Linux users accept things simply because their are reasons behind them. You have dozens of bizarre directories and optional directories and redundant and conflicting directories because the standard Linux filesystem says so, and they have their little reasons.
This has nothing to do with Linux on the technical side. Linux certainly is desktop ready and has been so for quite some time, no matter what Trolls like Overly Critical Guy claim.
You seem to repeating desperately to yourself that Linux is desktop ready. "No, it is! Linux is desktop ready, I swear it!" Then you call me a "Troll" simply because you disagree with my opinion. Clearly, I have struck a nerve.
(Actually the Windows-GUI is quite primitive and horrible to work with once you are used to Unix-style copy/paste, 3-mouse button GUI-support and multiple desktops)
I hear this claim all the time. Perhaps if copy-paste actually worked in Linux, it would be true. It's amusing that you claim the entire Windows GUI is primitive and horrible simply because you are used to using a third mouse button to paste. Who is the troll? Just remap your mouse button. Problem solved. Next.
It all depends on the applications.
According to your previous statement, it's the cut-paste that things depend on, but moving right along.
As some cities migrate to Linux and governmental apps get ported to Linux, the migration gets easier, faster and cheaper for other cities and the migration accelerates.
Cities migrating to Linux in order to use VMWare to run Windows applications on them. It's deliciously amusing. Governments used UNIX and other variants before, and now they'll use Linux. I fail to see how this will speed actual mainstream desktop acceptance, as if a user would move to Linux based only on the fact that the government uses it, rat
"Sufferin' succotash."
It's blatant lies like those that make people mod you as troll and that's exactly what you are.
Valid critizism is one thing, outright lying is another.
Of course you didn't show any evidence for your other lie that Linux would surpass Windows in 1998. It takes a long time to turn the desktop around because it is saturated, established and has a lot of application dependency.
What is missing is marketing and of course more apps. With pioneers as Munich, Thailand, China, Korea and many others, the applications will come. One niche at a time. As soon as the overall userbase is large enough, mainstream apps, especially games will appear. It will take quite some time (probably longer than most people including me first expected) but in the end Linux will emerge as the new standard. My guess is around 2010.
Wow, you're still here? I haven't been to slashdot in a while so perhaps you took a vacation as well and we're just coincidentally visiting the same post at the same time, but if that is not the case, you sir, are a true obsessive compulsive nerd stereotype. I salute you for being so creepy it makes the rest of slashdot, with it's cult-like anti-microsoft worship, look good.
It's been a long time.
Hi, I read your post and would like to show you things from my point of view, just because "I don't understand why they'd ever think that way" is a shame.
First, let me make perfectly clear that I'm not pro-windows by any means. Over the years I've spent long periods using OS/2 Warp and BeOS, among others(including about a billion DOS clones like dr-dos and xdos), without too many problems, but Linux is usually off my drive as fast as I can put it on there.
Why?
because it's missing critical integration. I'm not talking about "I can't import openoffice documents into kword" integration, I'm talking large scale "I just spent three hours trying to get this program to install and run correctly" integration.
When I download a program off the internet under Windows, OS/2 or BeOS, I need only double-click the installer to install it. In the unlikely event that I need a library, it tells me the name of the library, I enter it into my favourite download site, I install it, and all is well. I double-click the executable and it runs.
When I download a program off the internet under Linux, odds are, off the bat, that I will NOT be able to run it with my copy of linux. It doesn't matter if I have the absolute latest 3 day old copy of Red Hat or Mandrake, odds are it's going to tell me I need to get LibOSG-234_4 or some such before I can compile/rpm/binary install/untar it. I'll probably type that into my freindly neibourhood search engine(because good luck finding it on rpmfind with information like that!), and I'll get two or three different, mutually exclusive libraries. Odds are, I can't just go and install the latest version of the lib either, I need to get the exact version, so after hours of searching, I find that. Of course, there are three libs that I need to install that one, so I go out(armed with more gibberish), and manage to install them, after several more hours of toil, and after that, I may or may not be able to install this program, depending on how which libs are needed. It may be somewhat longer. There are some utilities, like urpmi, which help somewhat, but they're only as good as their pool of resources, which aren't limitless, so you're probably going to have to run out lib searching anyway.
Then, let's say I want to change my video mode. In windows, I right click my desktop, click settings, choose my mode, and click ok. in BeOS, I go to the Be Menu, click preferences, click display, and choose the resolutions I want for the multiple desktops(you can have every desktop at a different resolution if you want, BeOS is really cool that way). In OS/2, you(I think, it's been a while) right click the desktop, go to settings, go to the resolution tab, choose your setting, and hit OK.
In linux, I have to make sure my XFConfig-4 is set up correctly, then hit ctrl-[greyplus] and ctrl-[greyminus] until I hit the right resolution.
To set up my video driver in Windows or BeOS, or OS/2, I click the package. In the worst case scenario in Windows or OS/2(BeOS uses better than plug and play for it's drivers, so all your hardware is discovered every time you start your machine, so you need only install the driver and restart) you have to actually go and install the driver through a device manager of some sort. Not with my nvidia though.
To achieve the same level of functionalty with linux(because I could use nv or vesa, but I could use VesaAccepted in BeOS if I wanted to as well but I'm not going to), I have to run the RPM, then head into my XFConfig-4 file and tweak it in several places by hand, preferably using Vi, because that's my favourite unix editor. Then I start up X, and hopefully it works.
to set up a web server in BeOS, all I need to do is run the web server in the Be Menu. To run one in Windows, I download one(or use IIS....yeah right!) and run it, setting it up with a nice GUI control panel. In OS/2 warp, I go to the services tab and check httpd. It's on.
In linux, it's probably already installed, so I head to /
It's been a long time.
I use everything on your list, and others. But I'm not moved to "never go back to Windows", and I won't be, until I get something to replace Magix Studio and Fruity Loops.
-fb Everything not expressly forbidden is now mandatory.
There was evidence to prove that Overly Critical Guy is a lyingcocksucker, but he deleted it. Think independently.
There was evidence to prove that Overly CriticalGuy is a lying cocksucker, but he deleted it. Think independently.
There was evidence toprove that Overly Critical Guy is a lying cocksucker, but he deleted it. Think independently.
Wow, you're still here? I haven't been to slashdot in a while so perhaps you took a vacation as well and we're just coincidentally visiting the same post at the same time, but if that is not the case, you sir, are a true obsessive compulsive nerd stereotype. I salute you for being so creepy it makes the rest of slashdot, with it's cult-like anti-microsoft worship, look good.