Dvorak On The Future Of The Xbox

Thanks to PC Magazine for its John Dvorak-authored editorial discussing his view of the present and future for Microsoft's Xbox game console. Dvorak rages: "Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. Unfortunately, the company's overall strategies have failed and may continue to fail, leaving the Xbox in the dustbin with the last great American hope for a super game machine, the 3DO box from circa 1993", before continuing: "I think it can be argued that high-expectation syndrome was partially responsible for the deaths of both the 3DO machine and Sega. It definitely plays into the Xbox story... Compare this rollout to the original Sony PlayStation 1's debut... it just kind of appeared and worked its way to the top by attrition." He ends by musing: "Keeping the Xbox alive is important to Microsoft. Its pride and prestige are at stake... We will see an Xbox II. Whether it fulfills Microsoft's dream or becomes a collector's item remains to be seen."

Comments

Xbox isn't dying

[Moderator]

What color is the sky in Dvorak's world? The Xbox is outselling the Playstation 2. Xbox parties have quickly replaced LAN parties, and the fact that you can mod the hell out of it has almost turned soldering into a fad. The only place I can see the Xbox as hurting Microsoft is that PC gaming may suffer as a result. But what does Microsoft care if they already control most of the PC world through Windows anyway? If anything, the Xbox is increasing Microsoft's stronghold in the home.

This written from a Gamecube fan.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[AliasTheRoot]

First up, the article stated PS2 risked being outsold in the US market. Not that it was being outsold. Sales figures for consoles are notoriously difficult to get, and for every Analyst quoting one set of figures that they "predicted" another analyst will predict something wildly different.

Secondly, irrespective of Microsofts domestic market advantage, the xbox sells poorly in Europe and Japan compared to the PS2. Hell it probably sells poorly compared to the GC in Japan.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Claire-plus-plus]

XBOX sells so badly in Australia that they have continuing to drop the price even though Sony seem to have refused to play the price-war game this time.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Claire-plus-plus]

XBOX is costing Micro$oft money because they make a loss from the console and make their money from game sales, as does the PS2. Unfortunately a rather large proportion of Xbox users mod their consoles and use them as cheap pcs and media players instead of playing games. No game sales = no profit for a console.

The problem is caused by the fact that the XBox is grossly overpowered (especially with a harddrive) and is built of standard components, making it easy to "misuse"

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[atlasheavy]

Actually, if memory serves, XBox is currently being outsold by the Bandai Wonderswan and the PS1 in Japan currently. MS Game Studios in Japan is doing a lot of work to create games for that market. Hopefully, we'll see the numbers pick up in Japan before too long. I doubt XBox will outsell the GCN in Japan at any point, but it should at least be the 3rd most popular console. Also, as far as the ENU market is concerned, the fall/holiday game lineup for XBox is strong enough that Sony really should have some concerns. Fable, Halo 2, Sudeki, EA games for XBL, blah blah blah. You get the idea.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[AliasTheRoot]

I agree, Microsoft has been very aggressive in lining up exclusive content for their platform - that has really been one of the weaknesses, the majority of the selling titles have been multiformat, and Harry Potter doesn't really look any different on the PS2 or Xbox.

'sides, the PS2 is much further advanced in it's lifecycle - the people that would buy one at 200 have bought one really, i'm half expecting a price cut to 100 soon which will give it it's second wings.

just some retail figures I found for the UK, last christmas the ps2 outsold the xbox by 2.8 times, despite being more expensive and poorer technically. the retailers here still devote more shelfspace to ps2.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[gl4ss]

dunno about your friends but mine have jumped recently on the xbox train because of the mega easy modding possibility.

yea, I'm talking about the pogopin mods that are so easy to install anyone who's ever attached a pci card can do it. If I had a tv I'd be tempted to get one too.

now.. they should xbox2 do at least the things that xbox1 can do when modded...

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Anonymous Coward]

MS Game Studios in Japan is doing a lot of work to create games for that market.

Yeah, like True Fantasy Live Online, for example.

... Wait a minute...

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[xx404]

I'd like to see your figures backing this up. The last issue of OXM claimed that Xbox outsold PS2 last month. I also remember early on after it's launch that Microsoft said that Australia had the highest Xbox ownership per capita in the world. Both consoles sell for around the same price and Xboxen seem to be selling better than PS2 in cashies - people are trading their PS2 in to get an Xbox. GameCube is unfortunately not very popular here, but then I haven't bought one yet either...

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Anonymous Coward]

Actually, so far this year the PSOne's only outsold the Xbox twice on a week to week basis. It's doing better, but the PS2 is still outselling it 500 to 1.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm sure you have a cite to back that claim up, regarding "a rather large proportion of Xbox users".

A rather large proportion of Linux users purchasing Xboxes, perhaps, but show me any reliable stats putting the overall percentage of Xbox owners modding their machines as over 0.1%.

Remember, the plural of anecdote is not data.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Anonymous Coward]

It's not hard to outsell the PS2 if everyone and their mom already has one.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[NanoGator]

"Unfortunately a rather large proportion of Xbox users mod their consoles and use them as cheap pcs and media players instead of playing games. No game sales = no profit for a console."

Millions of people are modding their XBOX and using them as 'cheap PCs'? No, sorry. There are people doing it, but 'rather large proportion' is... well... out of proportion.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[king-manic]

What color is the sky in Dvorak's world? The Xbox is outselling the Playstation 2. Xbox parties have quickly replaced LAN parties, and the fact that you can mod the hell out of it has almost turned soldering into a fad. The only place I can see the Xbox as hurting Microsoft is that PC gaming may suffer as a result. But what does Microsoft care if they already control most of the PC world through Windows anyway? If anything, the Xbox is increasing Microsoft's stronghold in the home.

This is a fairly recent developement, it's happening in only one market, and it's not representative of XBOX success but instead of Playstations market saturation. GC is #2 world wide. #3 in America. Xbox is #2 in America #4 or #5 in many other places. MArket penetration wise, Xbox is about as far in as GC in America. their totals aren't too far off. As for games sold, xbox does have some tantalizing exclusives but they sell less games then sony.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[ElleyKitten]

I think the problem is less how many people are buying games or not, and more that microsoft spends a lot of money on XBoxLive, advertising, and overly generous retail rewards programs (they give away free games to game store employees and xboxs to game store managers. Sony and Nintendo don't.). I'm assuming they're hoping that if they spend alot now, they'll be more popular later. I don't know if this is working or not.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Anonymous Coward]

Actually, it's more likely because XBox game DVDs are relatively easy to rip to the HD -or- (with a chip) to DVD. Rent from BlockBuster, copy, end of story.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Anonymous Coward]

The GameCube isn't "probably" outselling Xbox in Japan.

The GameCube is trouncing Xbox in Japan. So are GameBoy Advance and PS2, many times over.

Xbox will not sell as many as any of these systems before the end of this generation.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[iocat]

Just for the record, Dvorak has never written positively about anything. His whole schtick is writing gloom and doom, devil's advocate, contrarian pieces about whatever anyone happens to be saying something good about.

Apparently this appeals to people's innate masochism, because he seems to have been doing it successfully in magazines since the mid-1980s.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[SuperMo0]

Xbox is #2 in America #4 or #5 in many other places.

Considering there are only 3 major consoles that are generally considered to be in the console war, being in #4 or #5 isn't all that great of a position, as it puts it behind either a portable or an older system that it's not even directly competing with.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[j.bellone]

The last analyst report puts PS2 roughly 72 million units, X-box 14 million units, GameCube 12 million units. This is world-wide. The PS2 has sold nearly 3X the number of units as the X-box and the GC combined.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[j.bellone]

I never liked Dvorak anyway, he had a crappy show on TechTV/ZDTV (Silicon Spin) in which he basically just played sides to intice the other people to argue. He can't write worth for shit, and as the above said, he always takes the negative aspect. I'd like to see Dvorak actually write something positive, a review or something. I come to think this guy knows nothing about computers and just writes based upon statistics.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Song for the Deaf]

It isn't and won't die for one simple reason- it's Bill Gates' easiest path into the living room. The average american is waaaay more likely to put an internet connected Xbox on the big screen than an internet connected PC.

Look for the Xbox 2 to up the ante in functionality, considerably. My mouth waters at the power and sheer fun of a modded Xbox 2, even if it's just a higher horsepower version of the first.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Anonymous Coward]

you still think spelling microsoft with a dollar sign is funny? I could just as easily spell nintendo with the word shit

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Anonymous Coward]

You could also do it with linux

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Anonymous Coward]

Cite this analyst report.

Is the analyst "j.bellone?"

Recycling editorials?

[sithkhan]

Wasn't his editorial written concerning how Microsoft should be pouring money into cleaning up the 'spaghetti code' that he claims runs amok in Redmond? Granted, I skimmed through the article awaiting my father's recovery from retinal surgery, but I really do not remember any in-depth discussion of the Xbox. I hope his editorial is seen as a call for a new management paradigm, and not just another voice calling for the solution of a problem by more spending. That would make some investors a wee bit nervous, don't you think?

Come on, this is Dvorak.

[tm2b]

Dvorak?

As a self-proclaimed Apple expert, he:

• Predicted the death of Apple for years and years,
• Predicted that the stratospherically successful iBook would be a disaster,
• Most recently, he predicted in March of 2003 that Apple would move the Mac to Intel in the next 12-18 months. Apple's got 3 months left to do it... what do you think the odds are?

The guy should change his name to "Anonymous Coward" for the amount of trolling he does. So now he's an Xbox "expert," eh?

Dvorak?

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[pizza_milkshake]

yeah, and what's with his whacky keyboard?

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[illuminata]

I hear that Dvorak uses QWERTY. The fucking hypocrite.

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[foidulus]

From the apple switching to intel article:
Scenario. Apple will announce its Intel initiative by showing a transition machine that uses both the Intel and Motorola processors. "So current Mac owners will not have to worry." This will be a high-end machine optimized to run Photoshop. Apple is adept at creating dual-processor architectures, so this won't be too radical. We've heard rumors of this kind of scenario for some time, under the code name Marklar.
That is one of the most bizzarely stupid ideas I have ever heard(in addition to being an obscure South Park reference) I have never heard of a dual CPU machine with different architectures, is he on crack? Plus, this was written after the IBM manufactured G5 chips(not Motorola like he states) came out. How would Apple, with it's (somewhat) limited resources be able to pull off something like that? Why would they pull off something like that?
Jeez, and yet the sad thing is this guy probably made more money espousing random stuff he pulled from his arse than I will make in my entire lifetime!

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[cluke]

I have never heard of a dual CPU machine with different architectures

Have a look at this then.

The Amiga wanted to make the same 68K to PPC transition that the Mac had done, but rather than move straight to PPC and use emulation, a 3rd party PPC co-processor board was produced. PPC software ran on this processor and 68K software (which was most of the OS) ran on the 68K. So, you would have processor intensive stuff (like the decoding done by movie players) farmed out to the PPC.

Not an elegant solution, but it gave the platform a much needed shot in the arm as the limitations of the processing power of the 680x0 series were become ever more apparent.

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[harrkev]

Ever heard of the Game Boy Advance???

Two DIFFERENT processors -- one for GBA games, and one for legacy GB games.

OK. I admit that this is not even in the same league as a desktop processor.

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[bozzaj]

Ummm... You do realize that they are different Dvorak's, right?

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[El_Ge_Ex]

I have never heard of a dual CPU machine with different architectures, is he on crack? Plus, this was written after the IBM manufactured G5 chips(not Motorola like he states) came out.

Actually, Apple _did_ have a dual machine when they the Mac moved from 68k to the early PPC.

In addition, PC's had a similar, but different way of upgrading to new architecture:

"386. Meet 387." The math architecture wasn't put on one chip until the 486DX (and taken away when it didn't work on the SX, but that's another story).

-B

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[Anonymous Coward]

You do realize they're using what's called humor, right?

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[Profane MuthaFucka]

Zatrhas not too bright. Zathras like it when nice commander explain joke. Zathras get a good laugh. Not laugh much these days. Too much work for poor Zathras.

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[UnknownSoldier]

> I have never heard of a dual CPU machine with different architectures

The PS2 for one.

The MIPS cpu in the orginal CPU is the IOP in the PS2, which also doubles for the main CPU when playing PS1 games on it.

--
The fallacy of government is that it assumes everyone needs to be told how to live,
but the fact remains it is unconstitutional to homogenize community by its own standards.
When it passes more laws until it makes everyone a criminal it has made the mistake of placing the intent on the "Letter of the Law" over the "Spirit of the Law."
"The more corrupt the republic, the more numerous the laws" -- Tacitus, A.D. 55
ALL civilizations eventually collapse. Are you that ignorant and arrogant to assume that yours won't?

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[Moofie]

Him? Not the one.

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[Moofie]

You might be thinking about the Quadra AV systems, with a DSP that ran the video and audio codecs. I don't really think that counts as a "dual processor" machine. After all...my modem has a processor on it.

You might also be thinking about the DOS compatibility card, which was basically a teeny 486 computer on a PDS card. That, however, was almost totally separate from the Mac architecture (although it shared the network card, and you could share the clipboard between the Mac and PC, which was extremely nifty).

Anyhow, there you have it.

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[Anonymous Coward]

Well he was correct that the *original* iBook would be a disaster. Apple certainly didn't stick with that design for very long, and is a running joke, along with "flower power" and "dalmatian"

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[iocat]

Also, the PS2 has, essentially, a PS1 onboard, which handles PS1 games and controller input. For game systems with five year discrete lifespans, it's maybe cheaper to just include the old hardware, which costs pennies by that point, than to write and support a software emu.

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[Ron Atkinson]

And if anyone remembers back I believe sometime around the mid 90's Dvorak wrote an article in Infoworld about his trip to Comdex in Japan and all the great products he saw there. The problem is that Comdex show never existed since it was cancelled at the last minute.

Many people in the computer industry distrust John Dvorak ever since this incident. He had also been caught writing product reviews on products that he has never used. The articles were based only what he read from other articles, manuals and press releases.

This guy lost credibility years ago and is nothing buy a bullshit artist...

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[zonker]

actually... their were also the mac apple II cards you could use to run old appleII apps from and connect a 5.25" floppy to which came about a while beforehand...

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[smileaf]

he maybe no xbox expert. but he makes a damn good keyboard layout ;) my hands feel cramped now that I have to type on qwerty again.. evil laptops and thier inability to easily change the keys around :(

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[Anonymous Coward]

The Commodore 128 had a Z80 processor and a 6510 processor for C64 mode.

Commodore also had the 2088, 2286, and 2386sx bridgeboards which were Zorro/ISA cards that were essentially IBM compatible systems that interfaced to the Amiga through 2M's of memory.

Microway used to sell i860/i960 processor boards for PC's.

Not dying...

[Cyno01]

From the sales figures, the x-box is certanly not dying, hell, i finally bought one last week (refurb though). Although the increase in sales could be because everyone already has a PS2, so now people are buying xboxs. But has Microsoft actually made any money in their gaming department? They have $50 bil in cash or whatever, so any loss is inconsequential, but iirc, microsoft took like a $200 hit on each console, its probably more now that they're cutting prices. I think the demise of the xbox will be its use of standard PC hardware, 1 $25 modchip and a standard IDE hard drive and you can copy as many games as you want, depriving microsoft of more money. Not that thats the reason i bought an xbox...

Re:Not dying...

[Mongoose Disciple]

but iirc, microsoft took like a $200 hit on each console, its probably more now that they're cutting prices

That's not necessarily true -- sure, XBox prices have never been lower, but the same is true of the hardware that comprises one. The longer a system is out, generally, the cheaper it is to manufacture it.

Re:Not dying...

[king-manic]

That's not necessarily true -- sure, XBox prices have never been lower, but the same is true of the hardware that comprises one. The longer a system is out, generally, the cheaper it is to manufacture it.

This is also not necessarily true. They out sourced a lot of their chips and hardware within the Xbox thus they don't get the "volume" or "vertical integration" discount on the hardware that Sony and Nintendo enjoys. So while the price has undoubtly come down for them. It hasn't as fast as it has for nintendo or sony.

The price of the nvidia graphics chips and the intel chips and the HD wont' fall much so their likly still losing money on each system.

The sky is falling!

[schild]

Dvorak is slowly becoming the Nostrodamus of the high-tech industry. I think it's about time he started writing apocalyptic theories in book form and sold them through thinkgeek. Meh, he certainly doesn't deserve space on any part of slashdot.

Re:The sky is falling!

[BigDork1001]

Dvorak is slowly becoming the Nostrodamus of the high-tech industry.

Nope, can't be Nostrodamus. There are people out there who actually put stock in what Nostrodamus predicted. I don't think anyone believes what Dvorak says. I think the better thing to say would be, "Dvorak is slowly becoming the mad, raving, lunatic of the high-tech industry."

Re:The sky is falling!

[Anonymous Coward]

Fitting for an industry which was mad from conception, then.

Re:The sky is falling!

[Anonymous Coward]

Dvorak is slowly becoming the mad, raving, lunatic of the high-tech industry.

Slowly becoming? In my opinion, he reached the mad raving lunatic mark years ago. :)

Re:The sky is falling!

[Hungus]

No He already is the "the mad, raving, lunatic of the high-tech industry." but if he keeps throwing crap around eventually something will stick. Then, at that point, people will treat him like ole Nostrodamus.

Re:The sky is falling!

[Hes Nikke]

if he was "the mad, raving, lunatic of the high-tech industry," whoever publishes his tripe would just ignore him. it seems to me he's more the village drunk of the high-tech industry. someone can't help but to feel sorry for the fool, otherwise they'd quit publishing his trash that isn't even tabloid worthy...

he soils the name of my favorite keyboard layout too.

Re:The sky is falling!

[AllUsernamesAreGone]

"Dvorak is slowly becoming the mad, raving, lunatic of the high-tech industry."

I wonder when the fight between Dvorak and Kevin "Captain Cyborg" Warwick is then... :)

Re:Amazing..

[prockcore]

I do a little work in the 'industry'.

Suuuure you do.

Dvorak is the most pro-MS journalist around. He has lunches with Bill Gates. For him to say the xbox is a disaster is pretty suprising.

Re:Amazing..

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm not sure whether to take your misunderstanding of the article as ignorance, or your lack of intelligence.

Small hands...

[Anonymous Coward]

Smell like cabbage...

Dvorak Lacks Credability

[ericrolph]

This from a guy who claimed Apple should stop making computers and software and that blogs offer the world nothing new when it comes to original reporting.

Re:Dvorak Lacks Credability

[Anonymous Coward]

You picked the only two things he's right about.

Re:Dvorak Lacks Credability

[sammaffei]

Amen.

Dvorak's such an idiot...

PS1 had a huge launch compared to it's rivals of the time. Sega's bumped up and lackluster Saturn launch (although I really liked the Saturn at the time). Atari's promising but unfufilled Jaguar support (not enough Tempest 2000 and AvP quality titles). 3DO who?

A lot of game shops offered trade-ins for the system before launch. I traded a SNES and games for a PS1 and launch titles at EB.

He definitely proves the "Empty Barrel / Noise" theory...

as others have said

[Anonymous Coward]

I really don't see how this guy knows wtf he's talking about...

A point by point rebuttal.

[Anonymous Coward]

the company has not been able to get worldwide sales, especially Japanese sales [..] but it still has not been popular enough to become a profit center for Microsoft.

I never remember Microsoft stating that they intended to make a profit on the first Xbox. It was their introduction to the market - and for a debut product they've done remarkably well. They've done better than Sega and (arguably) better than Nintendo.

The product itself is rather good for a first effort (controller slip-ups excepted). It's definitely the platform with the most longitivity due to the superior hardware specifications.

All this has recently been compounded by Microsoft's decision to cancel or delay the release of its online game True Fantasy Live Online.

A game company cancelling a game is not a big deal in the industry. Heck, I've worked in the games industry for 6 years - and been working on 2 titles when they were killed in various stages of development. Cancelling a title isn't a death-blow to a company as large as Microsoft.

Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. Unfortunately, the company's overall strategies have failed and may continue to fail

They're doing very, very well. Their main competitor is Sony. Sony is not going to take competition sitting down and has been fighting just as dirty as Microsoft, especially on their home turf in Japan. Microsoft has made impressive headway - done well in the US and Europe, but absolutely slaughtered the competition in some markets like Australia.

It's not like Sony hasn't made some mistakes - the PSX (Playstation 2 media center) pre-emptive strike against a possible Xbox 2 based "Media Center" was a disaster for Sony. There's no reason at all to doubt Microsoft's future in the console market.

The 3DO machine was the first 32-bit console; there were great games for it and it had powerful underpinnings. Its $700 price tag was probably the main thing that killed it, but it also suffered from the same problem that the Microsoft Xbox has suffered from: high-expectation syndrome.

Huh? 3DO comparisons aren't valid. 3DO was DOA because it wasn't marketed towards kids (who couldn't afford it), adult gamers weren't interested because there were no games (and Sony hadn't yet created the adult gaming market) - AND the 3DO didn't live up to the hype. But by all accounts from a consumer and developer perspective, the Xbox hit all expectations placed on it. I certainly have no regrets about my purchase, or about developing for it. I've played some great games, have some great games, had 2 titles published - and there are a number of games that I'm looking forward to.

I had experts come on my radio show and tell me flat-out that the Xbox would become the number-one gaming console, with Sony number two and Sega and Nintendo probably dropping out. [..] The relative lack of hot games reinforced the negative attitude, as did the promises that many of the hot games on the Sony platform would be "ported"--and when they were ported, they'd somehow be better. Some were marginally better, but not enough to change anything.

So somebody in marketing exaggerated a product's claims to a member of the mainstream media. Yawn. Really, were you born yesterday? Calling yourself a "journalist" would be some sort of exaggeration, but I don't blame you for trying.

However, you seem to forget that there weren't many good games when the Playstation 1 launched either. Sure, there was "Wipeout", but the PC version (or "port" as you seem to think that's a dirty word) looked much better. The killer Playstation 1 game, "Metal Gear Solid" began development when the machine was being designed. According to lore, they had a prototype running when the hardware was only at 30% of it's final speed. It was *several years* after the launch of the PS1 until that game eventually came out.

And it's the same situation on the Xbox - only last year and this

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Claire-plus-plus]

Microsoft has made impressive headway - done well in the US and Europe, but absolutely slaughtered the competition in some markets like Australia.

*bzzt* Sorry, you fail. PS2 still controlls the market in Australia.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Babbster]

Let me give you, my AC brother, an "amen."

This furor over TFLO's cancellation (which seems to be what spurred Dvorak into writing his piece) is one of the silliest things ever. I'm sure it cost Microsoft a lot of money to cancel, but MS knows (better than most) the even greater costs of releasing an MMORPG that fails to live up to expectations (I'm looking at you, Asheron's Call 2). From a customer relations standpoint, a failed but released MMORPG means that you're looking at a year or more of support at least - patching, upgrading, balancing, etc. If the subscriptions aren't there to support it, that's a lot of money spent on employee time getting flushed down the toilet. On the other hand, killing an MMORPG while in the development stage is only marginally more costly than killing any other big game.

As for Microsoft's lack of originality (the charge that they were trying to copy FFXI), I would point out that Square Enix's MMORPG gameplay can be traced right back to EQ and MUDs before that. There are differences (like the job system and the environment - just like there were differences between EQ and Asheron's Call, Dark Age of Camelot, etc.) but the fundamentals (leveling, grouping, downtime for healing, etc.) are unquestionably derivative. As for the name similarities, that's just silly. While another name might have been better, using the word "Fantasy" doesn't automatically make an RPG a "Final Fantasy" knockoff, and nobody was ever going to buy TFLO thinking they were getting a Square Enix product.

If Microsoft had taken the time to develop a cheaper system, they WOULD be making money right now. As it is, they decided to go the quick and dirty (and powerful, it seems germaine to note) route so that they could make a dent in the current generation and develop a fan base - which they've done. All that remains to be seen now is if the development time they've invested in the Xbox 2, as well the experience they've gotten in terms of developing console games and getting third-party developers on board, will pay off in the next generation. There are many reasons Microsoft's next machine could end up a failure, but there are just as many reasons to project an even better showing - anyone claiming to be able to read the future in this area is either way too cocky, a big-time fan/hater, or both.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Bustbang]

3DO has these great games... Need for speed Road rash wing commander 3 Star control 2 Gex Slam n Jam Space Hulk Return Fire Twisted Battle Sport Sword n sorcery etc.. A number of titles sold hundreds of thousands each far from DOA. How much was the the PSX when it first came out? 3DO problem was a it's fragmented structure a reliance on 3rd party support. By the time the 3DO company started shipping games it was 2 years after the debut.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[unclethursday]

I never remember Microsoft stating that they intended to make a profit on the first Xbox.

This is correct... However, MS told shareholders that they would lose only around $900 million by the end of the first 5 years. Not even three years into the lifecycle of the console, and the Xbox has been the main cause of the Home and Entertainment Division losing over $2.3 billion since the launch of the Xbox. The Xbox is the reason that that division is now losing over $200 million per quarter, with no end to the losses in sight.

Every price drop, game bundle, or Live bundle they put out accross the world loses them more money per console... and the game sales haven't really been there to make up for the loss on the hardware, like what was expected. In fact, MS hasn't had, to the best of my knowledge, a million plus selling game worldwide since the original Splinter Cell, which was only the 4th title on the machine to break the million unit sales.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Anonymous Coward]

Cite?

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm so fucking tired of people here making unsubstantiated claims and other people buying them at face value.

Can you please provide some kind of evidence to your claims regarding Microsoft's enormous loss?

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Anonymous Coward]

I have seen similar figures to those quoted here. If you are truly interested in this subject you should research it yourself, not moan at people who post but don't list their references.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Troed]

The numbers are correct. Red Herring has had the numbers if I remember my own bookmarks (not on this computer) correctly.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[BigJimSlade]

How much was the the PSX when it first came out?
$299 or $399, I'm not sure.

How much was the original 3DO? Over $700 dollars!

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Anonymous Coward]

Fuck me. You're saying that Red Herring has the numbers?

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Anonymous Coward]

Try reading their financial reports. Its all there in print - MSFT themselves don't deny that they're loosing dumploads of cash on this thing.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[senahj]

> 3DO has these great games

The Shockwave series from EA was superb.

PO'ed, which unfortunately arrived after the console had
entered the death spiral, was a great, quirky,
innovative FPS. First missile-cam I ever saw.
Its creators deserved success.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[king-manic]

It's definitely the platform with the most longitivity due to the superior hardware specifications.

Umm.. look up the definition of longevity. Their technical spechs are pretty independant of longevity. The gameboy has longevity. It has some pretty poor specs. The PS1 had longevity the hardware was pretty baseline, the Dreamcast had technological supuriority and no longevity.

the fact remains, they haven't done nearly as well as they hoped. Have failed everywhere except America.

Nowm I'm not a fanboy. I have all 3. And a gameboy SP and a PC that can run all modern games. Thats just the facts. Xbox is nice technically, but did rather poorly in comparison to it's expectations.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[jmauro]

Just be cause you don't believe it to be true, doesn't meant that the loss is false.

Here's a story talking about MSFT's December Quarter of 2003. It talks about how they lost $394 million in that quarter. Here's another story discussing how they lost $273 million the quarter before that. Both of these stories were easy to find and based on MSFT's reports to the SEC.

I always thought it was common knowledge that the XBox department was burning money like it was going out of style. Guess I was wrong.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Anonymous Coward]

In the US, I believe it came out at $299. The launch in Japan, however, was closer to $400. At least, that's about what you paid for it if you had it imported :-)

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Anonymous Coward]

You make some fair points as well as some unfounded ones. I won't focus on everything.

Sony is not going to take competition sitting down and has been fighting just as dirty as Microsoft, especially on their home turf in Japan.

To continue the line of thinking mentioned by another AC in this thread that may or may not be you, I'd like to request that you provide proof of both Sony's and Microsoft's domestic dirty fighting (Sony in Japan, MS here). Although I don't doubt that they exist, I want examples and URLs from YOU.

Gah.. choke.. (cough)Xerox(cough). SHUT THE FUCK UP. This largely baseless accusation's been thrown about so much that I'm not going to respond to it.. besides saying: Mac OS 10 is based on the BSD operating system. (sarcasm) You weren't very "Innovative" there, were you Apple? (/sarcasm).

The fact that the OSes borrow elements from each other at all levels is well known.

Some quickies:

• The Lisa OS and the Mac OS were both based on licensed Xerox designs. Yep, Apple paid for them and built on them.
• Windows has (on more occasions than the reverse) copied elements from Mac OS when suitable substitutes did not already exist. Recycle Bin, anyone? If there is any legacy that traces from Xerox to Microsoft, that line traces through Apple first.
• Apple is not immune to implementing good features from other OSes (fast user switching).
• Neither are the open source folks. (KDE and Gnome wouldn't exist without Windows.)
• The BSD license is quite liberal (to put it mildly). BSD code pervades the majority of the world's desktop operating systems, including Windows, and there's nothing immoral or legally improper about it, assuming the terms of the license are met (basically, credit BSD).

These are not baseless accusations, they are established facts. Microsoft's lack of creativity when it comes to many products that they produce is also well known, but I agree that it's ridiculous for Dvorak to be mentioning Mac OS when talking about Xbox.

And let me get this straight - you're complaining that the game wasn't original, that they probably didn't have their hearts in it - and that they cancelled it. So what's your problem? They probably made the correct decision.

Perhaps his point is that the lack of focus (heart) was a big reason TFLO failed to make it to market. By pointing out the game name's similarity to FF, perhaps he meant to imply that TFLO's focus was never about being an original game in the first place - which would jive with what MS and L5 have both stated about it.

Dvorak's an intellectual infant, but you know the popular saying about what sometimes comes "out of the mouths of babes."

You're being critical for them taking action - but you'd also be critical if the game was still in development. You obviously can't be made happy about anything.

I hope you are never in the position of consoling the family of a heroin addict who's commited suicide. X_X

For all we know, Dvorak was hyped about the game until he'd heard how poorly it was coming along. Eh, maybe not. :)

Microsoft is here to stay.

Sure they are, and so is the Xbox. I'm curious whether its successor will follow in Xbox's paper tiger loss-leading strategy, or if it will turn around and actually become economically viable like Xbox's competitors.

Except that Nintendo will be competing against Sony for the next generation of handhelds, possibly distracting Sony from it's battle with Microsoft.

This is the kind of idealistic, serial mislogic that gives fanboys their reputation. No offense, but really.

Dvorak is essentially right that Microsoft would be better off if Nintendo magi

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Bustbang]

The price was slashed quickly. I bought a brand new 3DO unit for $350 in 1994.

Fanatic...

[Anonymous Coward]

Mr. Dvorak comes over as a barely-intelligible fanatic.

I'm the first to admit that the X-Box has not achieved global domination. The only company ever to have made such a first-impact on the console market is Sony, and they did this with the PS1 when they entered a market which was much less business-savvy and brand-conscious than the current console market. Microsoft have also yet to crack in to the Japanese market, although I sense this wasn't really one of their initial priorities. All the indications are that their focus is shifting in this direction, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this change.

What the X-Box has achieved in its first generation is to ship at least as many consoles as (and probably a good many more games than) Nintendo, despite Nintendo having many generations worth of experience of the market and a console with a remarkably low price-point. That this has proved expensive for Microsoft shouldn't come as a surprise, but nor should it diminish their achievement.

Re:Fanatic...

[JasdonLe]

The only company ever to have made such a first-impact on the console market is Sony

Um....

Atari 2600?

Nintendo Entertainment System?

Re:Amazing..

[capmilk]

Dvorak is the most pro-MS journalist around. He has lunches with Bill Gates. For him to say the xbox is a disaster is pretty suprising.

Hopefully, MS will be so pissed off that they drop him. Finally.

I respect Dvorak, but what's he on this week?

[shadowxtc]

I highly respect this guy, he's a brilliant and insightful person, and rarely have I questioned his views.

However, the XBox is clearly superior to the PS2 in a number of ways - namely the hard drive eliminating memory card confusion and enabling faster load times. It's graphics are far superior (HDTV 1080i anybody?) and faster. Ethernet out of the box. Rips and plays music. It has four controller ports (Sony is retarded). Granted it has its weak spots - that you need to buy an extra "output adapter" and "remote control" to unlock all its features - but that's only to make up on the money lost by MS on the base system.

Anyway, it seems to me Dvorak is probably taking some really good drugs, in which case I strongly suggest he make that the topic of his next article. If that's not it, I smell the stench of Sony's deep pockets and strong desire to keep a weaker product in the lead, hurting everybody in the end (see: ZIP drive). Or, perhaps he's never actually used an XBox. But I doubt he'd lie, or take a bribe. Drugs it is - do tell. :)

Re:I respect Dvorak, but what's he on this week?

[cluke]

He's not saying that the XBox isn't technically superior to the PS2, just that Microsoft have made a right royal balls-up of marketing and supporting it.

Re:I respect Dvorak, but what's he on this week?

[The Evil Couch]

I don't see how insightfull and brilliant should be used in the same sentence with Dvorak. In an article about spyware, the man admitted that running AdAware found (IIRC) OVER 100 PROCESSES!

Anyone that manages to get themselves that badly infested AND NOT NOTICE IT untill running a malware removal app is clearly not someone that the computer world should take seriously.

The man simply doesn't know what he's talking about.

Re:I respect Dvorak, but what's he on this week?

[gamgee5273]

No, he doesn't know what he's talking about. And don't expect him to.

It goes back to a talk I heard from Robert Cringely last year. Cringely noted that IT pundits, like himself and Dvorak, simply have to make the prediction and let it loose - but they don't blast it. That way, if they are wrong, very few people know about it. If they are right, they can go on for years about how they predicted the end of the Xbox, Apple, etc.

Pretty good gig if you can get it. :)

Re:I respect Dvorak, but what's he on this week?

[CronoCloud]

The Xbox may have superior stats in some ways but that does not make it the "better" gaming machine.

PS2's can also have hard drives,bigger ones than X-boxes. Both of my PS2's have hard drives installed.

IMHO Gameplay is more important than resolution and the PS2 has a better and larger variety of games.

Most PS2's you can buy nowadays have the Network adapter included, so Ethernet right out of the box.

Last I heard Sony was going to release a music application for the PS2 allowing one to rip and listen to music.

I've always wondered why a console with built in networking needs 4 controller ports. Shouldn't you be playing muitliplayer online?

The reason the X-box has those 4 ports is because it's aimed at the "dorm room" market in the same way the Gamecube is aimed at the "after school" market. I'm 37, arranging some in house multiplayer with friends is almost impossible due to schedules. I don't need 4 ports and if I did hooking up a muititap is not that hard. On top of those two ports a PS2 has USB ports. Don't need special adaptor or special X-box only keyboard, all you need is any ole USB one. That goes for mice too. Did you know that most PS2 FPS's support keyboard and mouse input?

I'm Just Curious

[Slyght]

I'm not trying to flamebait anyone on, but I've noticed people (not just on this newspost) like to say that the Xbox is ruining the PC market because of cross-platform development. Besides Deus Ex: Invisible War and Thief: Deadly Shadows, both of which were developed by Ion Storm mind you, can anybody name another game that was hurt as the result of this? I think people are mistaking Ion Storm's poor choices in development as some sort of nasty plot by Microsoft to cripple the PC market, because they certainly wouldn't want people to go out and buy PC's that run their operating system, heh.
I don't believe that the Xbox is failing. Just look at E3 this year, and you can see that Xbox exclusives like Halo 2, Burnout 3, Jade Empire, Fable, etc were walking away with a lot of awards, not to mention Xbox Live's success. I'm not trying to say that Xbox is the best system, because I think each of the big three systems has their own strengths, and I own them all. I think it's outrageous to compare the Xbox to the 3DO, though, as to this day I couldn't name you a single game for the 3DO, whereas the average gamer is probably aware of Xbox's lineup.

Re:I'm Just Curious

[Anita Coney]

"I don't believe that the Xbox is failing."

John didn't do a great job in his editorial explaining why it is failing. But it is failing.

The problem for the Xbox is that it is utterly unprofitable. Microsoft loses about 100 bucks per console. Since it makes only about $7.50 per game, each console user has to buy about 13 new games for Microsoft to only break even. Obviously used games do not count, nor does renting them.

Some have estimated the Xbox losses to be near a billion dollars. And let's assume that this Christmas the Xbox sells a million consoles. That's a loss of $100,000,000. Assuming each console buyer also buys three games, which is a HUGE overestimate, the loss is still $77,500,000!!!

And don't think that Microsoft's Live! is going to save it, it's dirt cheap and is losing money too.

And think about this, even if the Xbox2 is a huge hit, it will have to earn a billion dollars before Microsoft breaks even!!! And I seriously doubt that will ever happen.

Check out the forums over at PCMag for more info and some links.

I just want to add, I have nothing against the Xbox. I think it's a great system and I plan on getting one when Doom3 is released, if I'm able to use a mouse and keyboard to play it. It'd be a heck of a lot cheaper than spending about $400 for a new video card and about $150 for a new CPU.

Re:I'm Just Curious

[fr0dicus]

I generally agree, the numbers don't look good, but precisely because of this:

I just want to add, I have nothing against the Xbox. I think it's a great system and I plan on getting one when Doom3 is released

I believe it's far from over, and for Doom3 also read Half Life 2, Halo 2, and Fable, as obvious blockbusters. Xbox has a very strong lineup for the holiday season, more than just standard sequels that the other two machines have.

I really believe Microsoft will leverage this in the only way they know how, marketing, and turn the downward trend to at least a flat line. The back catalogue is now quite strong, so people buying in for the first time have plenty of choice titles available. My vehement hatred of Microsoft has turned into a basic loathing of their PC software division since I got my Xbox.

The fact that they're using some of the revenue to prop up what is in fact a very nice console just makes it all the sweeter.

Re:I'm Just Curious

[Anita Coney]

I guess I didn't explain myself. The better the Xbox sells, the MORE Microsoft loses. Let's assume that you're right and a billion Xboxes are sold and everyone buys Half Life2, Halo 2, Fable, and Doom3. And let's also assume that Microsoft gets 10 bucks each for each of those games.

Assuming that's true, Microsoft loses a whopping $60,000,000,000. Yep, if Microsoft sells a BILLION consoles over Christams and if every one of their best games get sold, Microsoft will lose 60 BILLION!!! Even Microsoft doesn't have that kind of money!

Re:I'm Just Curious

[king-manic]

I don't believe that the Xbox is failing. Just look at E3 this year, and you can see that Xbox exclusives like Halo 2, Burnout 3, Jade Empire, Fable, etc were walking away with a lot of awards, not to mention Xbox Live's success.

umm.. exclusive means "xbox only" not "xbox and PC only" since Jade empire is ofr the PC as well. Halo two will be eventually. Burnout and fable are most likly excluive but Jade empire is definently not.

Re:I'm Just Curious

[king-manic]

I believe it's far from over, and for Doom3 also read Half Life 2, Halo 2, and Fable, as obvious blockbusters. Xbox has a very strong lineup for the holiday season, more than just standard sequels that the other two machines have.

You have just listed 4 games that are nichey products that traditionally have done well in the "PC" market and sold about fairly low number of units. FPS + mmorpg don't have a significant niche in consoles.

Re:I'm Just Curious

[DaveCBio]

No, Jade Empire is NOT coming out for the PC. Get your story straight. Also, there are no plans for a PC port of Halo 2. Don't believe me, then check it out yourself - http://jade.bioware.com/

Re:I'm Just Curious

[king-manic]

I just confirmed it right now. Sorry my bad. It may eventually come out for PC but it's truly exclusive. Damn it.

Re:I'm Just Curious

[Nephilium]

Where do you get that Jade Empire will be coming out for the PC? BioWare says X-Box only, not X-Box and PC.

Nephilium
Against stupidity, the Gods themselves contend in vain. -- Friedrich von Schiller

Re:I'm Just Curious

[KDR_11k]

For later: Burnout 3 isn't exclusive, it was for PS2 and XBox all along and after EA grabbed them it was anounced for the GC as well.

Proof: Official site. The sample box is labeled "Playstation 2".

Re:I'm Just Curious

[Anonymous Coward]

Burnout 3 will not be an Xbox exclusive, or even an "Xbox and PC" kind of lame almost-exclusive that Xbox has so many of.

Re:I'm Just Curious

[fr0dicus]

I believe that's purely because they've never had simultaneous release, or serious attention. Quake 3 got a late release on Dreamcast, and it was a cut-down version of the PC version, Half-Life, a very late release on PS2, a reasonable conversion, but people said it looked dated even by PS2 standards. Halo is the reason many people bought and Xbox, and now they're adding Live code, which should have been in the original. Fable isn't an MMORPG, strictly.

I suspect the proof will be in the pudding, but the hype machine has been running on Half Life 2 and Doom 3 for well over a year now, and that's going to transfer into above average software sales.

Re:I'm Just Curious

[fr0dicus]

Nonsense figures aside, seeing as I was talking about software sales lets say that the usual Christmas spike is in evidence, with a little more on top fuelled by these titles. Still nowhere near a billion, in fact not especially near its current installed base, which you conveniently forgot about. Now what if they buy three out of four of these titles, how do the figures look now?

When I talk about a strong software lineup, that's exactly what I mean. They make money from the software. People don't buy a new Xbox every month when a good game comes out, they use the one they've already got.

Re:I'm Just Curious

[king-manic]

The key problem with HL2 and DOOM 3 is that they require high end systems. Only a small percentage of gamers can run them at a decent clip. This reduced their possible market share. Thats always the problem with PC FPS games. The reason why warcraft and starcraft sold so many is that they aimed low technologically and had the expansion bump it up a bit. Quake 3, and a lot of the FPS legends sold slowly due to the small base of users who could run it well. HL2 and DOOM 3 now has a larger base because they pushed back the dates but it's still not as large as the Xbox bae or the GC or the PS2. With the simultanious release for xbox and PC it's hoped they can capitalize but it's still a niche market. A lot of people don't care for fps.

Re:I'm Just Curious

[fr0dicus]

A lot of people don't care for fps.

But a lot more people do. Only The Sims has sold more than Half Life on the PC. Halo is the Xbox's biggest seller. Doom 3 and Half Life 2 have been grabbing gaming headlines for months, leaked demos, stolen code. Counter-strike is the most popular online game ever. It's hardly a 'niche' market. Quake, Doom and Half-Life are some of the biggest and most famous franchises in PC gaming.

Now that a console has finally been observed to be capable of representing the ideas that the developers want to put across in FPS' we have a system which will run the same for everyone. No worrying about if your graphics card/CPU/amount of memory is up to it. A level playing field online. Chances are the FPS is going to erupt in a big way over the Christmas period. With the Xbox and it's 3 or 4 massive titles (unsure of the Far Cry release date), the PS2 getting at least Killzone and Battlefield: Modern Combat, the Gamecube getting Metroid Prime 2 (probably only offline multiplayer, but that's their angle), the stage is being set for an FPS Christmas.

Hardly 'niche'.

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[fr0dicus]

Bollocks. Most of the games aren't even similar in style. No mouse or keyboard makes sure of that. Many more games are cross developed over consoles only than consoles and PCs. Consider this, if there was no Xbox then those games probably wouldn't even have had a PC release, the market is becoming too small to bother with, full as it is of stale FPS's and point and click RTS. This is in the same way that the Gamecube is starting to find itself without ports of certain games. Stop whining and be thankful. Don't blame the Xbox for the PC's demise, blame all consoles for being something that most people would prefer to play games on.

Re:Of this you can be 100% sure!

[fr0dicus]

Yeah, and I bet you're still on your Voodoo 2 aren't you. Idiot. I suppose all your games from back then work too.

*cough* Halo ?

[LordPixie]

can anybody name another game that was hurt as the result of this?

Bungie was originally a PC (And Mac !) developer. And a damn good one too. (I hope you've all played Myth & Marathon)

I think the logic behind the 'XBox hurts PC' charge is that MS winds up buying development companies, and makes them XBox only. Like they did with Bungie. That, and the potentially more lucrative market for the XBox takes focus away from PC development.


--LordPixie

Re:*cough* Halo ?

[Anonymous Coward]

Please. If MS didn't buy them no one would know what Halo is and Bungie would have slipped away quietly into the night.

Besides, MS isnt' the first company to do this. Sony and Sega have done the same.

Re:*cough* Halo ?

[Moofie]

Uh, no.

Bungie was originally a Mac developer. Pathways into Darkness and Marathon were kick ass back in the day. Marathon II: Durandal was their first PC projct. Then they did Myth and Oni cross-platform, and got bought by Microsoft. (This is considerably more traumatic for me than, say, the occupation of Mecca by Western armies would be for a devout Muslim.)

So. The Mac game scene lost a lot when Bungie started focusing on the PC. The art of video game development lost a lot when Bungie got bought by Microsoft. So it goes.

Re:*cough* Halo ?

[LordPixie]

I don't believe the Mac community lost all that much when Bungie started producing for the PC. Both Myth and Oni were playable on the Mac soon after their release on the PC. (If not at the same time) Due to the similarities of input devices and the like, neither game was dumbed down or limited by this cross-development. Bungie had quite a devout Mac fanbase because they were providing quality games on both platforms.

The same cannot be said for Bungie under Microsoft. The PC & Mac versions came out looong after the X-Box release. And the differences in console and desktop gaming meant that a simple port just doesn't make for a good game. Damn MS for defiling our gaming Mecca.


--LordPixie

Re:*cough* Halo ?

[DaveCBio]

If it wasn't for MS we have no idea where Halo or Bungie would be today. I doubt very much they would have got the support they needed from Take 2. They could have been another gaming footnote if it wasn't for the infusion of resources from MS.

You don't understand MS' buisiness model.

[LordPixie]

MS profits on sales of a surprisingly small amount of, well, anything. Think about how much MS makes when you use MediaPlayer, Internet Explorer, etc. MS isn't about selling a bunch of products, they're about controlling the platform. The idea behind the XBox isn't to turn a profit. It's to put a MS platform in as many living rooms that they possibly can. Once they've got that sort of control, then they can start making money. It's not like we haven't seen this before...


--LordPixie

Re:You don't understand MS' buisiness model.

[Anita Coney]

Right now, Microsoft only makes money on two things: Windows and Office. Every other aspect of Microsoft's business loses money. E.g., Xbox, MSN, WinCE, WebTV, etc.

The only reason Microsoft can support all of these other failures is because Windows and Office has about 80% profit margins. Microsoft uses those HUGE profits to enter into unprofitable fields.

You may be right, maybe the Xbox2 will not lose money and will start to earn a profit. Maybe by Xbox3 (about 12 years from now) the billion dollar losses of the original Xbox will start to be paid off. Maybe by the Xbox4 is out the billion dollar debt will be paid off and Microsoft will start earning a real profit.

So maybe, just maybe, Microsoft will start earning money on the Xbox console 12+ years from now. You may be right. But, you also might be wrong. And considering how much money Microsoft is losing now, I don't think Microsoft will wait 12 years and will almost certainly give up before then. Only time will tell who is right.

Re:You don't understand MS' buisiness model.

[Morgahastu]

You think that Microsoft will allow the competition to last for another 12 years? They are selling the XBox at a loss for a reason, to steal marketshare from Sony and Nitendo. They're well on their to doing so and I think "Xbox 2" will be a huge success. The Xbox is doing very well not after having a very poor start and everyone expecting the worst. Now that they have gained all these fans, what do you think the next launch will be like? Very favorable.

Once Microsoft has strongarmed developers into becoming XBox exclusive, and start patenting ridiculous features they'll raise the price and lower the performance of the XBox as they see fit, and people will buy it. I think it will happen sooner than you think. Atleast in North America.

Re:You don't understand MS' buisiness model.

[Anita Coney]

As I said, you might be right. This could be the first time Microsoft released a profitable product other than Windows or Office. Merely because Microsoft has failed in every other attempt does not mean it has to fail in this attempt.

I do know one thing for certain, though, the Xbox2 will NOT have a hard drive. I seriously doubt that Microsoft will be willing to lose money on each console in the next round of the console wars. The Xbox2 will be much leaner, that's for sure.

Re:You don't understand MS' buisiness model.

[KDR_11k]

You think that Microsoft will allow the competition to last for another 12 years?

The problem is, Microsoft's competition is turning in a healthy profit on their console business. Unless MS can do REALLY aggressive underpricing (which isn't possible as long as they attempt to have the most powerful console on the market), that's not going to change anytime soon.

Re:You don't understand MS' buisiness model.

[gamgee5273]

Not going to happen - even in North America.

Japan is the key to winning this sector. Microsoft has to seriously break into Japan's game market first, but the Xbox is not ever going to catch fire there. Myabe the Xbox Next, but not this one.

But, with Sony in the market, with Nintendo not backing down, and with MS not becoming more geocentric, the game market is still up for grabs... MS has great potential to fail here. And they have before.... many times before.

You know you're wrong when

[Morgahastu]

You know you're wrong when even Slashdot doesn't agree with your anti-ms bashing.

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[Anonymous Coward]

The PC's demise hahahaaa
You are in a fantasy world dude, the PC will be around long after the XBox has gone.

Re:Of this you can be 100% sure!

[Anonymous Coward]

I am not sure what the point of your post is Frogdickius, the PC is way ahead of the Xbox in terms of specs and will continue to stay ahead. It is the Xbox's video card that is laughable by todays PC standards, not the other way around moron.

The PC has been about for 30 years, your a fool if you really think the XBox will do away with it. Business will never use Xbox's and as long as the PC hardware is about games will be written for it. The guy is right, the PC will still be here long after the Xbox has gone.

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[Anonymous Coward]

As an office-machine, sure. But let's face it, the PC hasn't really had much in the way of killer titles during the current console titles. More worryingly, developers haven't made any games for it that do stuff that the current consoles can't do (with a very, very few exceptions).

If the PC-games customer-base continues to shrink then yes, the PC gaming market will die.

So, then Microsoft should be a Monopoly?

[DeadBugs]

You know, Microsoft takes a lot of heat for crushing the competition.

Now the XBOX is taking heat for not crushing the competition.

In my view the XBOX is doing well. I know just as many people with a XBOX as a PS2. Nobody I know has a GameCube (well except me I have all 3 but I'm sick).

Right now if most people want a new game system they pick the XBOX, the PS2 is seen as being "old" and the Gamecube is not seen at all.

Either way I hope there is enough market for all 3 and that the games keep coming.

Re:So, then Microsoft should be a Monopoly?

[king-manic]

Right now if most people want a new game system they pick the XBOX, the PS2 is seen as being "old" and the Gamecube is not seen at all.

and the proof for this is where? Anicdotally. all the black guys I know have an xbox, ps2. All the white guys have a PS2 some have game cubes, and equal number of xboxes. All the asian guys I know have a PS2 and a GC. Almost everybody has a GB SP too. Common denominator: everybody has a ps2. Now the ps2 sales haved ropped. however the games sales haven't dropped as much. It doesn't imply that people aren't "picking up" a ps2 because it's old. but because they alreayd have one.

Re:So, then Microsoft should be a Monopoly?

[Paladine97]

If the Gamecube is not seen at all then why has it sold more units than the XBox?

Just because you and your friends don't like the Cube doesn't mean it's not being seen. Just not seen by you.

Agreed on the last sentence: more games = more fun for all.

Re:So, then Microsoft should be a Monopoly?

[Moofie]

Maybe they buy an xBox because they've been happily playing their PS2 for years, and are looking for something different.

Me, I'm looking at the GC, because it's cheap and has tons of superb games not available on other platforms. I wouldn't buy an xBox for anything.

Re:So, then Microsoft should be a Monopoly?

[Anonymous Coward]

Totally off-topic, but do you want to know something funny? Your assessment of the racial breakdown of game system ownership is similar to what I've seen, with a few exceptions.

All the white gamer guys I know have PS2s. Some have GameCubes and/or Xboxes too. Mostly RPGs or sports games, never both. The ones that play RPGs also tend to like shooters (including FPS sometimes) and platformers.

All the black gamer guys I know have PS2s or Xboxes. Not normally both, and not GameCube. The guys I know play mostly sports and racing games, and a couple of them like fighting games.

All the Asian gamer guys I know have PS2s and/or GameCubes. Most often, both. Some also have Xboxes. But I always see a lot of RPGs, fighting games, and platformers. One guy lives for shooters but not FPS.

The white and Asian guys pretty much all have a GBA or GBA SP. But most of the black gamers I know don't have a GBA. I know a black guy with a GBA SP and another black guy with an NGage. I don't know anyone else with an Ngage.

Weird. These are old and current friends and people from around the office, BTW.

Here's a different way to look at it...

[LordPixie]

And considering how much money Microsoft is losing now, I don't think Microsoft will wait 12 years and will almost certainly give up before then.

I'd like to draw your attention to this Cringely article. It's a (long) opinion piece on MS' business model. Two points are made about the way MS works: 1) MS has incentives to increase losses. Yeah, you read that correctly. Without losses to balance off their massive growth in the Office/Windows department, they'd plateau and go nowhere. 2) Microsoft has basically saturated the PC market, and sucked as much profit as humanly possible from computer sales. Thus, they have to move into new markets.

Keeping the top two points in mind, the X-Box seems to be doing a perfect job of what MS wants. Now, I certainly don't expect you to whole-heartedly agree with the above article, but do at least read it...


--LordPixie

Re:Here's a different way to look at it...

[Anita Coney]

I've already read the article, in fact I read Cringely every Friday. And I agree with the article completely. One, that Microsoft has milked the PC market dry. And two, that Microsoft has to move to different markets.

However, I happen to think that Microsoft will NOT win the console market. Essentially Microsoft is in a catch-22 situation with the Xbox. If it fails to sell, Microsoft failed. However, due to the 100 bucks loss on each console, if it succeeds, Microsoft loses even MORE money.

Maybe Microsoft has the wherewithal to wait 12+ years to pay off its current Xbox debt and start making a real profit. Time will tell.

Oh, and one more thing. People who assume that future Xboxes will be profitable enough to pay off the current Xboxes debt also assume that the current demand and growth for consoles will continue.

What if the console market crashes in a couple years?! Sony would not be harmed too much, as the PS2 was very profitable. In other words, Sony will come out ahead. While Microsoft will be completely harmed because it will not be able to recoup its current Xbox losses with a profitable Xbox2 or Xbox3.

Re:Here's a different way to look at it...

[*weasel]

The last numbers I saw had total game sales pegged at about 4 game sales per year per Xbox sold. Therefore it'd only take them just over 3 years to get to 'break even', assuming a loss of $100 per console (which is a little high) and revenue of $7.50 per game (which is a little low - particularly because it ignores profits as publisher for first and second party games: given the success of their first/party lineup, that's a not-insignificant amount of dough, enough to bump the average)

The home and entertainment division reports huge losses for tax purposes. Everything they buy or dev that fails to produce a product gets written off as a 'loss' even though they retain the tech. And remember, it's much more than just the XBox.

That big number around the top of the thread ($2.3B) includes WebTV losses, cable set-top development losses, a pvr deal written off as a loss, and all the PC and Console games they've sacked (which includes a bunch of losses for this seasons sports games and double-digit millions on Mythica and TFLO alone)

Whittle it down to the truth, and that $900m estimate of losses on XBox1 after 5 years starts to look like a pretty darn accurate guess.

Re:Here's a different way to look at it...

[LordPixie]

However, I happen to think that Microsoft will NOT win the console market. Essentially Microsoft is in a catch-22 situation with the Xbox. If it fails to sell, Microsoft failed. However, due to the 100 bucks loss on each console, if it succeeds, Microsoft loses even MORE money.

Selling hardware at a loss is pretty much par for the course when it comes to consoles. Even Sony does it (BTW, if anyone has a better link for PS2 manufacturing costs, let me know.) Even though the actual sale of the console costs money, it still leads to increased profits. It all comes down to software licensing. The more MS brand consoles in the public's hands, the more developers will want to make games for them. The larger market is just a better place to hawk a product. This increase in demand/profit from developers allows Microsoft to increase it licensing cost, eventually bringing the entire division into the black.

Now, is this going to happen with the X-Box ? Not unless the wrath of god removes Sony from existence. However, it is theoretically possible with the next generation console. As you astutely put it, only time will tell.


--LordPixie

Re:Here's a different way to look at it...

[Anita Coney]

A lot of people say that Sony also loses money on its hardware. I've read conflicting reports about Sony's hardware loses. Some say they exist while other say they do not. However, it doesn't really matter whether Sony loses money on its hardware, because its PlayStation division is profitable. And it's also a fact that Microsoft's Xbox division is not profitable. Heck, it's more than not profitable, it's loses gobs of money.

According to this article, the Xbox has lost Microsoft billions of dollars:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_pag e.php?sect ion_name=pub&aid=3489

But even if it's half that, or a quarter of that, it is still a lot of money.

Re:Here's a different way to look at it...

[Anita Coney]

Every article I've read places Microsoft's per console loss at between $100 to $120. If you can find a different and lower number, I'd like to see it.

Also, I've read that Microsoft makes from $5 to $10 per game. If you can find something different and higher, I'd like to see it.

Re:Here's a different way to look at it...

[*weasel]

I'm going off the numbers upthread, i never challenged those assumptions. They're entirely in the same ballpark as what you're stating.

My only comment on the numbers you just reiterated is: for games for which MS acted as publisher and distributor (1st and 2nd party games) even $10 revenue per box sounds awfully low.
And given the number of units sold, a statistically significant number have been first and second party titles, enough to bring up the average.

Therefore I figure that a straight average of $7.50 revenue per game is a perfectly reasonably pessimistic estimate.
Figuring that against 4 titles per Xbox per year -- it should take only 4 years for MS to break even. Sure there'll be falloff in XBox revenue as it ages and the next generation comes around (and XBoxs bought last year may never break even) - which is why I find the MS estimate of $900m in losses after 5 years to be perfectly reasonable.

Re:Here's a different way to look at it...

[king-manic]

My only comment on the numbers you just reiterated is: for games for which MS acted as publisher and distributor (1st and 2nd party games) even $10 revenue per box sounds awfully low.

Your forgetting retail mark up.

It may cost $1 to make the physical form of a $50 game but the retailer/distributor gets around 60% of that. so that leaves 20 bucks of which they must pay that $1 and marketting and developement.

Re:Of this you can be 100% sure!

[Anonymous Coward]

The PC's spec is indeed well ahead of the X-Box's. So why do my X-box games look so much better than the vast majority of my recent PC games? (Farcry being the honourable exception).

Developers will almost never be attracted to a platform on the basis of its technical capabilities. They'll go where the sales are. These days, that means the consoles.

xbox gets more us in my house than ps2

[Anonymous Coward]

Dvorak, you can't be serious... he's kidding right... just trolling?

The xbox is alive and doing quite well... It's also quite superior to the ps2 in many ways. Anti-aliasing, high def support (beyond 480p), xbox live, games load quicker, look better and it's now pretty dang cheap. personally, I have even come to prefer the new s-controller over the PS2 controller, but maybe that's cause I'm playing the xbox so much.

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[ripsnorta]

There have been quite a few big titles released in the last few years. Depending on your preferences, you may or may not call them killer titles.

In no particular order...

Neverwinter Nights

Morrowind

City of Heroes

UT2004

Farcry

Serious Sam

Empire Earth

Rise of Nations

To be released (probably before the next set of consoles comes out)...

Doom 3

Half-Life 2

The Matrix Online

Everquest 2

Evil Genius

To be released just after the heat death of the universe (in about 10^(10^72) years.)

Duke Nukem Forever

Right

[NanoGator]

"Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. "

That just goes to show, you can't have a monopoly without a market that agrees with you.

Re:Right

[Anonymous Coward]

Here Here

M$ do not know how to market to this sector yet, where Sony and even Nintendo know this market very well.

They can easily get the teenagers sucked in with the XBox hype but the more sophisticated older demographic can see through the hype.

I would guess that most XBoxes are sold to a teenage audience, I wonder if there are any figures on this?

Of course in true M$ style they did try to buy Nintendo to get them out of the picture, and that is precisely why they deserve to fail. Nintendo & Sony made this market, M$ shouldn't be allowed to wade in and buy the competition, that just hurts the end user in the long run. But of course M$ have a record of this type of behaviour.

Re:Right

[Anonymous Coward]

"M$ do not know how to market to this sector yet, where Sony and even Nintendo know this market very well."

Your placement of the word "even" is pretty damn funny, don't you think?

Re:Of this you can be 100% sure!

[Anonymous Coward]

Uh, you're smoking good crack lately aren't you?

I'm guessing that your PC can't handle turning on all the options. Or you haven't turned on AA/AF.

I dunno about you but Splinter Cell looks a hell of a lot better at 1280x1024 with 4X AA and 8X AF than anything on a TV.

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[king-manic]

5 letter mmorpg. It's been Sony's PC cash cow of ra while and as of yet PC mmorpg never get to the same level. It's a niche market but MMORPG is a very very profitabel niche.

John Dvorak is an Idiot.

[Anonymous Coward]

I've read a fair number of Mr. Dvorak's columns over the years, and they've led me to a conclusion that the man isn't qualified to make observations about what he ate for breakfast, let alone the high-tech industry.

There's just this... feeling that I get from every column of his that I've ever seen. He has all of his facts straight, but he doesn't have a clue as to how to put them together. It's a testament to the incompetence of computer journalists everywhere that he still even has a job.

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[RogueyWon]

Neverwinter Nights - old now. Graphically unimpressive even at time of its release. Never lived up to full potential because it assumed people we willing to go through far too steep a learning curve to make modules. Lack of party control crippled it for single-player.

Morrowind - available on X-Box

City of Heroes - it's a MMORPG... it's early days. We'll see how it fares. I doubt it's going to beat FFXI.

UT2004 - largely an update of UT2003, with a few bits of Tribes bolted on. Utterly stale.

Farcry - will grant you this one. Gameplay (particularly difficulty curve) has some problems, but it does go beyond what the consoles will do.

Serious Sam - multiple versions available on all consoles. Has been for some time, actually.

Empire Earth - may be good, might not be. Never heard much about it, so I doubt it's a "killer" title.

Rise of Nations - fairly generic RTS. Again, utterly stale.

Doom 3 - also for X-Box.

Half-Life 2 - if it doesn't turn out to be also for X-Box, I'll eat my hat.

The Matrix Online - after Enter the Matrix and the second two films, can't say this excites me.

Everquest 2 - I suspect FFXI has beaten it to the post.

Evil Genius - not heard of it, won't comment.

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[ripsnorta]

All of the current games that I mentioned above have sold very well for the PC. I noticed that you thought a few of the games were 'stale'. Regardless of that, the fact is that not only did they sell well, they received good reviews. A reasonable portion of the gaming demographic must have thought they were pretty good.

Neverwinter Nights in particular had rave reviews inspite of its 'unimpressive graphics.' Personally, I didn't think the graphics were that bad, and I don't tend to rate a game on its graphics much anyway. Lots of people are still playing it. That must say something about its 'killerness.'

The other thing to mention is that a game can be available for a number of platforms and still be a big PC game. Doom 3 in particular will do incredibly well on both PC and XBox. (I'll probably go PC for this one, even though I have an XBox. I prefer using a mouse to play a FPS. Much more efficient.)

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[king-manic]

Quake 3 was a roaring PC success. Sold less then any of the Final fantasies after 6. NWN is a huge success, still sold less then Gran Turismo. Warcraft 3, starcraft, Half life are about the only games that sell console numbers on the PC. HL2, Doom3 won't do console numbers. Even on the Xbox. Their FPS. FPs have a limited market. Even Halo didn't do GTA or FFX numbers.

XBox Endangered But Not Dying

[blueZhift]

I turned my XBox on last night and it works just fine. Admittedly, it has been neglected of late as I've spent a lot of time on my PS2 playing FFXI. That aside, the XBox is not dying yet. Instead, the real threat comes from within Microsoft itself where the company has shown a history of cut and run on anything outside of Windows and Office. It's hard to argue the numbers though, since right now at least PC gaming may make more money for MS than XBox gaming since PC gaming must be driving some PC sales which of course means Windows and Office sales.

But, if they can come up with the games to drive sales in Europe and Japan, then things could turn around dramatically. I think (with no evidence whatsoever) that internal politics may be keeping them from doing what must be done in the way of aquiring local development talent for the overseas markets and of course marketing effectively there. There's no secret to what Sony did to become the dominant player in the console market. Microsoft just has to decide that this is a game they want to win. I think the future of the company depends on this more than they would like to admit given the rise of Linux and OSS solutions on the desktop.

I'd definitely debate that.

[LordPixie]

Halo had a very large PC fanbase going for it before Bungie was bought out. I have absolutely no doubt that Halo would have been a significant success saleswise had MS not come along. It might not have been widely considered the best game on the platform, but a success nonetheless. Bungie had a excellent track record with the multitude of Marathon and Myth titles. The cult-following alone would have made Halo a hit. It most likely would have garnered mainstream recognition as well.


--LordPixie

Re:I'd definitely debate that.

[Anonymous Coward]

Bungie had a excellent track record with the multitude of Marathon and Myth titles. The cult-following alone would have made Halo a hit.

Just like Looking Glass Studios... oh, wait... :-)

Re:Amazing..

[gamgee5273]

The work you do must be amazingly little if you don't know who he is or what company's platform he tends to support...

I'll give you a hint: they're located in Redmond, WA and it isn't Nintendo of America.

A nasty XBOX trick

[LWATCDR]

If MS could get away with it they could always put create an PS1 EMU for the XBOX but that would hurt there sales of XBox games.

Re:A nasty XBOX trick

[Vengeance_au]

You mean a PS1 emulator for the XBox like this one????

Of course you need to have modded your box to run it, which kind of impacts the sales of XBox games by default :-).

Re:A nasty XBOX trick

[LWATCDR]

Yep but I was thinking that Microsoft would just put it on the Hard drive. You pop in the PS1 cd and instant PS1 compatability. Maybe throw on a Dreamcast emulator as well just for japan.
Never happen because Microsoft needs to sell games to make money.

Re:A nasty XBOX trick

[Anonymous Coward]

First off, a Dreamcast emulator would be appealing to gamers around the world, not just Japan.

Secondly, there are no existing fully-operational Dreamcast emulators. If there aren't any that run on high-spec PCs, there certainly aren't any that run on the low-spec Xbox.

Finally, in order to do a Dreamcast emulator legally, you would need Sega's permission, because of the way the Dreamcast boots. Reverse-engineering only goes so far with Dreamcast, unlike Playstation, for which the BIOS can be (and has been, in the past) reverse-engineered without violating copyrights. Microsoft would have to be just a little bit more desperate than they already are in order to do this.

What a moron

[Anonymous Coward]

Xbox is the best thing since sliced bread. He probably saw the sign outside "No nerds allowed, that means you Dvorak"

Re:What a moron

[Anonymous Coward]

You're a funny one, Microsoft fan.

Re:what?

[Pluvius]

Don't you think it's a little stupid to draw lines in general? It's natural to favor one flavor of things over another, but it's the lowest form of human behavior to start arguments and wars over it.

Yeah, God forbid we actually try to understand through argument why others have the opinions and beliefs that they do. Far better to assume that everyone is exactly the same, holding hands and singing songs under a bright rainbow.

To sum it up: who the fuck cares?

Who the fuck cares about anything on the Internet? Why are you even posting to Slashdot?

It seems the only way to escape such an immature stereotype is to either own all three current systems, or none at all.

Actually, the way to not be a fanboy is to realize that your game developers of choice are not the end-all and be-all of gaming, that not everything that they touch turns into gold, and that their competitors are not complete trash. It's really not that hard.

You should be siding with consumers in general, and not You should be siding with consumers in general, and not voluntarily giving more power to an already overwhelming and controlling entity.

Funny; I thought that being a fanboy was "voluntarily giving more power to an already overwhelming and controlling entity."

Rob

Re:Of this you can be 100% sure!

[KDR_11k]

The point is that both a console and a PC get outdated and replaced. With a console you throw away the whole thing and get a new one that consists almost completely of superior parts, with a PC you usually replace one component at a time. While you could say your PC lasted you from the 386 generation to now, it isn't really the same PC as ALL components have been replaced at some point in time. Just because you don't replace the entire system at once doesn't mean you aren't replacing it. A PC bought on the release day of the XBox likely has been replaced by now or is so outdated it doesn't play any current games, whereas the XBox can still play all of its new games at full detail.

Dvorak wrote that?

[Anonymous Coward]

Bah.

Re:Amazing..

[Xlipse]

You're right, the work I do is 'little' now a days, which is why I phrased it that way, jackass! I can't keep track of who the fuck everyone is? Am I a fucking robot with a photographic memory? I have much more important shit to worry about. His name was FAMILIAR, but beyond that, I don't know shit about him, other than his predictions and claims are about as off the mark as one can get. Now shut up and sit down.

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[Anonymous Coward]

Even Halo didn't do GTA or FFX numbers.

You are talking about Halo on the PC right? Because if you are using this statement against the Xbox version, you are really treading through deep water. Halo for the Xbox has sold over 4 million copies (soon to be 5) and many people still play that in single player, co-op, LAN, and even online wtih XBConnect. To call that game a failure based on your limited views is such a stupid and naive comment. Move on troll.

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[king-manic]

FFX sold 10 million AC. 4 million is 30% penetration for the Xbox. It'd be considered a fair success for PS2. IT's a super smash hit for the Xbox. FFX-2 sold 6.6 mil. GTA, PS2's smash hit sold 29 million world wide. So yes, my statement is correct. Halo didn't do FFX or GTA numbers.

Re:Of this you can be 100% sure!

[Anonymous Coward]

Uhhhh not real sure what PC games you are looking at, or perhaps you have an old video card but turn everything on under video options on the latest PC games and most of em will look far far slicker than any XBox game.

Take any of the cross developed games and switch all options on in the PC version and the PC version will look far superior.

I agree some cross developed games don't look much better on the PC but that is generally by developer choice, this is where the XBox drags PC version quality argument kicks in.

Check out Halo for example, on the PC it could go so much higher in resolution but no... they couldn't be bothered to do that - probably made the port to hard.

The hardware is the limitation of course, the XBox hardware cannot compete with the latest PC hardware, it is too old now.

We need the Xbox 2 to have a videocard that plugs into a slot, so we can pull it out and add a new one. But... that won't suit M$ business model, they want you to buy a new Xbox every 2-3 years.

Re:Amazing..

[gamgee5273]

Well, now, at least I didn't resort to swearing and name calling, did I , son? You have a massive problem with imagination if you can't come up with more words to use than that. Come on: two usages each of fuck and shit? You can do better, I'm sure.

No, you aren't expected to know everyone. No one is asking you to. But if you want to work in this industry you do have to know who people, especially loudmouthed idiots like Dvorak, are. You want to know why?

Because those are the columnists your bosses read. They are the ones who shape what business managers dream about late at night. Thus, when they come in to your departmental meeting, talking about the fact that they know what's going on in the "industry" - they read Dvorak, after all - you know how to argue with them.

However, if your arguing style is evidenced by what you wrote above... well, then, you have a long way to go.

Funny post?

[smileaf]

Morgahastu got a 4 for funny?.. that's a 5 on informative!

Re:Of this you can be 100% sure!

[fr0dicus]

AC moron, what difference does it make if the concept of a personal computer will be around longer than the Xbox? You're not using a system with an AT motherboard, 286 and CGA graphics are you? So what if personal computers will be around after this particular console is gone, you're either playing solitaire or have replaced every single component, which is effectively the same.

Put it this way, there were games consoles before PC's ever had proper games written for them, and there will still be games consoles when PC's are nothing more than thin client appliances for running your software directly from Microsoft. Whoever claimed that the fucking Xbox was the timeless enemy of the PC? Retard.

Re:Whats all the fuss about???

[fr0dicus]

PC game sales are currently on a fairly linear downwards trend, spikes for holiday periods notwithstanding. Do the research yourself if you want. This is not the supposed "Console/PC see-saw", as the PC has yet to "saw" since the PS2 came out, nearly four years ago. With many people predicting the next generation of console hardware to be release in 2005, that pretty much leaves the upcoming holiday season for the PC to right itself again. Unfortunately it doesn't have any exclusives, as the Xbox is getting Doom 3, Half-Life 2 and even Far Cry is being ported.

Still, maybe longhorn will have a cool new card game if it ever gets released eh?

Making up money?

[fwitness]

"..you need to buy an extra "output adapter" and "remote control" to unlock all its features - but that's only to make up on the money lost by MS on the base system..."

Actually, making the remote control as a seperate purchase was a slick way to avoid paying licenses to the DVD consortium (or whateverTF they're called). At first I thought this was stupid, but now I realize it makes sense. You would have to pay another $15-20 per Xbox if they shipped it as a viable DVD player, and what if I don't want another DVD player? If I do want that feature, I buy it for a nominal fee. It's a great solution. When the XBox does drop low enough for me to consider making it my 3rd console, I don't need a 3rd DVD player, and don't incur the cost.

As to the extra video cables, that's just the sellers choice. Their are currently 4 ways to hook a console up to a TV (RF, Composite, SVideo, and Component), and I don't mind the fact that they don't ship every console with all 4 different types of cables. That also doesn't really count as an Xbox 'weak spot', since the other consoles also do the same.

Oh, and I try very hard to avoid excessive bias. Case in point, I don't own an XBox, still think it's an awkward, although interesting duck, yet will defend it's good points.

"... but that's only to make up on the money lost by MS on the base system."

So in conclusion, no.

Mistake of equating money to dominance

[AhBeeDoi]

What's wrong with this picture? Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market.

I always cringe when I see somebody equating money with intelligence, status or whatever. The fact is that MS is Johnny-come-lately in the console gaming market and they have to play catch up with entrenched big name competitors. Having good titles available on your platform is more a function of branding and getting to market first than the size of MS's wallet.