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The Technology Hype Cycle
jira writes "What does it take for a new gadget to be succesfull on the market? Which technologies will become part of everyday life in the future? BBC investigates the Techology Hype Cycle."
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Just get a "review" posted on /.
A house divided against itself cannot stand.
The usefulness of a gadget is irrelavent as long as the public buys them. Some tennis shoes are still over $100, right?
I'm sure "SlashdotMedia" will improve on all the wonders that Dice Holdings blessed us all with
Which technologies will become part of everyday life in the future?
'Which patents will prevent certain technology (and as a result promote others) and become part of everyday life in the future.
Step 1. Get slashdot to announce your product.
Step 2. ???
Step 3. Profit!!!
The hype cycle isn't just for electronics. Think about IPOs.
m &q=l&c=
Here's the referenced chart...
hype chart
Here's the yahoo 5 year IPO chart...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=YHOO&t=5y&l=on&z=
Same pathway...
The is the pathway of ANYTHING new being introduced into the world. First, it's sexy and popular, then it's over done, and then it either levels off or dies.
it must be researched, developed, tested, and proven. Proven technology like MP3 could never have evolved if Fraunhofer wasn't so wise to invent and release the technology. From thereon, it went it's own way (more or less) and evolved into what MP3 is now : mainstream and accepted.
Before all those people leap into the "why does this work and why this not" they should start at the bottom: research and development. With those two magic words, we are likely to see a whole lot of hypes more. Without it, we can just wait on the next company that goes bankrupt because noone would buy it's proven, but old, products...
Slashdot: stuff for news, nerds that matter, matter for news, stuff that nerd
1) Post ad "article" for design engineer on Slashdot
2) Fanboys post "articles" about your new products on Slashdot, designed by engineers hired from "articles" posted on Slashdot
3) Profit!
Yes, the elusive step 2 in the profit scheme is as simple as posting on Slashdot. It works for Apple, blog spammer Roland Piquepaille, and it can work for you too!
"Some of the best known innovations, like the net, have swiftly become part of the furniture for millions,..."
I've tried to interpret that in different contexts but nothing works out. part of the Furniture? I think their editors were alseep.
With the trends I would have guessed that the double beer hat would have been big.
I guess if I came up with some technobabble name for it and claimed that NASA had something to do with it's construction it'd sell big.
Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
"Personal video recorders are moving so quickly because they are being built into practically every box that does digital TV in the US."
What is the effect of bundling, on bringing a product out of the trouth of disillusionment?
2. Roll around in your new found wealth
*sigh*
1. Get a new technology that has not matured yet.
2. Apply it to a maturing retail area (see iTunes and the music market).
3. Packaging and usability is king if you want to get the mass audience (and no - slashdot readers are NOT the mass audience!)
4. Profit!
(5. Putting the little apple logo on it usually helps jump a few steps in the process...)
Get your free iPod![it really works! - my buddy got his after I signed up, I have just 2 more referrals to go...]
The iPod is a wonderful piece of drool-worthy hardware, but mp3 playing and players were well entrenched before iPod showed up. I can maybe buy the iTunes angle but another 'iPod changes the world slant' is hardly enlightening.
The "technology hype cycle" is fairly easy to shortcut if you have independent testers *use* the product instead of just releasing it to the market. For example, anyone who *used* the Audrey for any period of time could have told you that it would be a complete flop. It was underpowered, slow, and overall useless. OTOH, Apple made sure that people (especially Jobs himself) *used* the iPod before release. Changes were made based on that usage, and the product was better for it.
Of course, that's no guarantee of success. It's quite possible that the product will fail because people don't "get it". In that case you have to watch what your focus groups do. Do they sort of bumble with the thing, with no idea what they're doing? Would they actually keep using it if they weren't forced to? Do they make use of most of the features, or do they ignore them? Most of this can be found by quiet observation of the user with the device. Don't answer questions. Just let them figure it out.
If there's little that can be done about the complexity, then you're going to need a good advertising campaign. Manuals will help, but they only come *after* the purchase. It's much better to explain why they need the device before purchase so that they'll jump right in with the designed goals in mind.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
From the article:
"Something new would happen, there would be tremendous excitement, followed by disillusionment."
Sounds like the entire course of human history to me.
Weaselmancer
rediculous.
A gadget with 256 MB usb,bluetooth,wifi,a screw driver, a nail file [ geeks definitely need one ],
scissors,a GPS,LCD screen,mp3 player,cellphone and a pda...
did i miss something ?
fifteen jugglers, five believers
It also helps to have a foot in the door... companies that already have a good relationship with a big box store like Wal-Mart would be more likely to swing deals. For example, they could get priority placement in Wal-Mart stores by the cash as "impulse buy" items. Of course it depends on the type of product, but existing ties to industry make it difficult for the new guy to get into the game.
Why do you think the iPod is the most popular and well-known HD MP3 player around? Big advertising budget and good store placement. It may not be the best thing (I contest that my iRiver iHP-120 is far superior), but it's the "gadget to get" for people who don't care to look into how other items stack up.
Maybe they were speaking metaphorically? The internet is at the level of acceptance that it does indeed blend in. Much like furniture.
The majority of people are followers... the key is to get endorsement to hype the "cool factor". Once you have the "cool factor", the followers will line-up!
HMMMM, by my calculations, an XM PCR will be about 5000$ dollars by then and you obviously will need ebay to sell it at the ludicrus rate. So those two will obviously prevail.
Donuts, is there anything they can't do?
Lots and lots of shiny pieces. Or smooth pieces. Shiny + smooth = success.
I think there's some truth to that. If Gadget A catches your eye and is aesthetically pleasing it will probably sell better than an uglier but more functional Gadget B.
Apple tends to blend form and functionality rather well.
"False hope is why we'll never run out of natural resources!" - Lewis Black
So while it's an interesting article I don't think they've accounted for everything or, more likely, they don't want to talk about the next step which is probably a slow (or fast) death for technology which is ursurped by the next new thing. Also while the idea seems to be this "Hype Cycle" can help predict the path of a technology the article itself throws cold water on that idea. They readily admit the iPod threw off all their predictions for the Mp3 player market (now called simple digital music players). The hype cycle seems more of a hindsight tool than a forward looking predictor.
...they just copied one of the dozen or so MP3 players on the market before them. But they made it white, and put a wheel on it (which they stole from the car audio world). Innovation in action!
./~ Consider yourself- at home.
Consider yourself- one of the familhy.
We've taken to you- so strong.
It's clear
we're
going to get along.
Consider yourself- well in
Consider yourslef- part of the furniture.
There isn't a lot- to spare.
Who cares?
What
ever we've got we share!
./~ </OliverTwist>
The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
- Find something that irks Steve.
- Build a prototype that's expensive, white, minimalist and looks really cool!
- Have a highly publicised launch about a month before the product is in the stores.
- Improve on said product year on year. Bring price down, refine.
- Profit!
This is a guaranteed way to sell products. Funnily enough, if you take that hpye curve and lay it over what I mentioned above, it fits perfectly. Sony tend to use this route too...It goes something like this: some new technology starts to look like the next big thing. Journalists hype it to the moon since it gives them something "truly revolutionary" to talk about. As a result, expectations get all blown out of proportion.
Then when the technology inevitably fails to live up to the hype within some ridiculously short timeframe, they have yet another big story to promote: "Is XYZ a hopeless failure?". Two stories for the price of one!
The moral is not to believe what you read in the papers. Sure, there are plenty of revolutionary technologies emerging, but these things take much, much longer than the press would have us believe.
Peer Pressure
There was not an absolute iota of information in that article that I could make use of, or carry over with me. It smacks of absolute useless-ness, like a number of other articles
1. A graph with different tehnologies/device listed against the time it took for them to "mature", with funny names given to each trough and crest of popularity, does not make an insightful report.
2. There has been no mention of whose definiton of "product maturity" has been used. It is a term widely open for interpretation
3. It is hilarious to compare the effectiveness, acceptability and market penetration of such varied products as DVD players and PDAs, and so on. There are host of factors that come into play, least of which is the sense of an inane need within the target customer segment.
I bet that article concludes something. Though I certainly wish it was something more focused than a wannabe "we will have more power in our hands in the future"!
http://efil.blogspot.com/
"If there's little that can be done about the complexity, then you're going to need a good advertising campaign. Manuals will help, but they only come *after* the purchase. It's much better to explain why they need the device before purchase so that they'll jump right in with the designed goals in mind."
Make the common, easy. Make the less common, slightly harder. Make the impossible, next years model.
That's what happened to This little piece of equipment.
"I'm just here to regulate funkiness."
"The is the pathway of ANYTHING new being introduced into the world. First, it's sexy and popular, then it's over done, and then it either levels off or dies.
"
Sounds like Slashdot postings graphed over time.
Porn
/.ers got broadband or upgraded their modems in order to meet more women named .jpeg or her lovely sisters .mpeg? As far as that goes it's an often overlooked fact that porno movies go back to the beginning of film. The "hype circle" is just another way of saying "lookit that, no nipple pixels!" :-)
No, seriously, new technology is frequently propelled forward by its capacity for smut. Show of hands: How many
(And yes I realized how it's ironic to ask for a show of hands WRT porn. At least I didn't ask you to show both hands.)
Erotic is when you use a feather. Exotic is when you use the whole chicken.
And when some company comes out with the cell phone that doubles as an mp3 player (downloads songs as easily as ringtones), bye-bye iPod. Why carry two gadgets when one will do, and doesn't require a computer?
-- Boycott Shell
Somehow, it seems appropriate that while I'm writing this, the Microsoft TCO of Linux ad keeps showing.
What I think is most unfortunate is when a company hypes a product, with features people actually want, delays it, then finally releases it, but not as good as promised. Microsoft has done this in the past, but it looks like they may be taking the time to get Longhorn up to snuff.
It will be interesting to see if Half-Life 2 lives up to the hype.
--
Complete an offer, get a free Orkut invite, Gmail invite, and a copy of The Core Media Player Pro, to boot!
If you can read this sig - the bitch fell off.
Sometimes, according to Ms Behrens, a technology can be so hyped it may never meet expectations.
It seems like the Segway fits here. Vast hype, vast expectations, little impact two and a half years after introduction.
All it takes for hype to succeed is for good nerds to do nothing.
I got a good laugh out of this when I first saw it.
Apple Product Life Cycle
i am a soviet space shuttle
I think your Step 2 is "Produce some of the product before it becomes obsolete". Tough one to pull off, though.
are we still waiting for MSFT
p.s. look at the volume activity at the bottom of the chart , it's quite high even though MSFT is flatish.
thank God the internet isn't a human right.
and LCD is out. It should be oled. Also forgot the camera and game capability.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
-5 months: You "discover" a technology at a conference that no one seems to have picked up on.
-2 months: You read about it in the newspaper 3 months later. The article is done by a guy whose speciality is discussing nothing but gadgets.
0 months: The technology appears in stores in limited quantities, geeks foam at the mouth trying to acquire it. The girlfriends of geeks shake their head wondering why they would need it.
2 weeks: The geeks who can't find it in stores buy it on ebay for 3x the store cost. No girlfriends to shake their head at these guys.
1 year: Regular people begin buying the product.
1.5 years: Mainstream newspapers report on the popularity of the product.
2 years: Your girlfriend buys the product.
2.5 years: Your mother finally hears about the product.
3 years: Families begin buying the product. The product is finally mainstream.
5 years: The product begins appearing between the shaving razors and chocolate bars at the check-out counter.
7 years: The product/technology finally peters out and your grandmother goes around telling people that she knew it was a fad from the start (1 year ago, from her perspective).
8 years: Slashdot reports on the product.
I know enough pop stars to know thats not the case. (well at least a couple).
Some of them have realy bad taste, others just copy the fashion. There all molded and sold of the shelf like everything else.
thank God the internet isn't a human right.
The article is geared more at management types than at trench tech weenies. And since when do managers want real information?? They'll just have marketing rework it for press releases anyhow. How is it with all the vaunted intelligence on here people don't notices things like that?
/.er might steal your idea.. why not post something real?]
Of course the techs will nit pick and say that this item was underpowered, that one wasn't 'fully functional' and this one was.. such is the way of the egghead.
Manager types look, see a picture trend, and say "hmm.. how can i(or company) make money? how can i replicate these to map to product X.. etc."
Which, in a way, all of the "1. x 2. x 3. Profit" posters noticed as well.. [other than some
ie 1. build mini helicopter or dirigible (or steal^H^H^H^H^Hborrow from epson) 2. market as 'border patrol device' 3. profit [from (almost) limitless tax dollars and promote big brother all at the same time]!
The iPod got about 40gb of music and about half an hour playtime. The phones got 32mb and about 2-3 hours playtime.
iPod market will never be replaced by the phone market. Same reason the real hifi component market is not replaced by the boom-box market. iPod buyers will always want the extra quality that a dedicated product can give them. A gadget that tries to do everything will always end up doing all of them less.
Two different markets.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
http://www.babelcode.org
1991: "Don't call, send me an email."
1992: "$10 for a CD? What a deal!"
1993: "$3,000 for a 486? What a deal!"
1994: "Check out this webpage."
1995: "I'll be out, call my cell."
1996: "I bought it all online."
1997: "The number's in my PalmPilot. What? No, it's better than the Newton."
1998: "MP3s on napster.com? No problem, I've got a cablemodem now."
1999: "Y2K? Yeah, I've got my bunker stocked."
2000: "Yeah, I finally got a DVD player."
2001: "Check out my wireless network. Yeah, all the way to the patio."
2002: "It costs more but this LCD monitor is the shiznite!"
2003: (unemployed)
2004: "Would you like fries with that?"
Speak truth to power.
"Are all the other devices essentially slaves to the PC - which is the Microsoft vision - or do the functions become spread out to smart consumer devices through the home?
5 7&tid=133&tid=103
The article uses the word "slave" when referring to something dealing with technology. Attempting to read the article in California may result in you breaking county law in your locality. http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=03/11/25/00142
"After three days without programming, life becomes meaningless." - Tao of Programming
But hey it works. Companies delayed adopting OS/2 because MS promised that 95 was going to be so much better. People are delaying switching to Linux/BSD/OSX because MS promises longhorn will be so much better.
This is hardly unknown in business. Harly davidson made bikes so bad they didn't even work out of the factory. Car companies have for years created models that killed people and they are still around. Air travel is the most dangerous form of transport around (the claim that it is the safest is based on distance travelled, bit mean when you can spend an hour in a car and still be in the heart of amsterdam but an airbus will be two countries away) based on trips and yet most people think it is safe.
Surviving hype depends on how much we want the hype to be real. We want airtravel to be safe or else we wouldn't do it. It also depends on how we experience the disappointment. iPod buyers only experience it when they are in the shop and see products at half the price. Not often enough to force them to consider that the iPod is not worth the hype.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
The technology hype life cycle has essentially been pioneered by Microsoft.
1. Announce a technology "idea", that someone else pioneered, that's nowhere near complete in terms of development.
2. Develop it for months, maybe years, producing a lull in the market.
3. Finally release it, but in Beta.
4. Finally complete the beta, making the thing gold while it should still be nothing more than a beta.
5. Start "round 2" of producing a product that should still be in beta, and call it version 2.
6. Announce version 2, three months after you decide what the feature set will be, and start working on it.
7. continue the cycle.
"Love is like pi - natural, irrational, and very important." (Lisa Hoffman)
So to rephrase your comment in one sentence or less... It's worthwhile to hire good usability engineers and do usability tests.
...'successful' correctly helps a lot.
Did he inhale?
1.5. Get 3rd Worlders to produce it
Common problem: you foresee something based on the knowledge of today. You have to take into equation the various attempts to increase the size of harddrives - ie. techniques to improve the density. Maybe even new ways to store data (remember the scotts-tape that was usable for data storage, holographically ?).
Slashdot: stuff for news, nerds that matter, matter for news, stuff that nerd
How come Duke Nukem (takes) Forever isn't on the list? LOL!
How about truely releasing a product for people to buy after hyping it? An example of which would be the famed OQO that looked so promising, but has yet to materialize. (sigh) That's one item I was looking forward to.
Visualize Whirled Peas
This article seems more to be an exploration of how Apple has become a media darling with conventional news outlets more than anything else. A good portion of Apple's products -are- inovative, but they do not always start the race, they charge healthy margins and they certainly don't get everything right (ummm...ipod battery?)
------
The iPod didn't "change what MP3 players were called", and paying a dollar for a 96kb/sec song isn't too bright when you can still download it at higher bitrates for free. The other MP3 player companies are the ones working smarter--they are selling the necessary hardware, without sinking money into operating an online music store. Do you suppose all those people who bought music at iTunes will ever find out they paid for files lower in quality than a casette tape?.... Apparently Apple doesn't think so.
When did selling rotten fish become innovative?
~
It's Called Eating your own dog food
There are many other links here
LongTail SSH Brute Force analysis tool is here!
"BBC investigates the Techology Hype Cycle"
"Longhorn will be the best yet!"
"Longhorn will be out in 2003."
"We won't be doing WinFS over the network."
"We won't be doing WinFS".
"Longhorn will be out in 2006."
"We won't be doing Avalon" (next month).
"Longhorn will be out in 2008."
"We won't be doing Longhorn."
Richard Steven Hack - This sig is TOO GODDAMN SHORT TO DO ANYTHING USEFUL WITH! MORONS!
So where do you-all /.'ers figure Biometrics is on the curve?
I'm thinking: nearing the top of the curve, about to peak then head south big-time.
Then, a very few solutions will crawl out of the trough to the plateau. But I'm thinking this is not going to be a high plateau...?
What will survive? Only fingerprints? Maybe facial recog? Maybe iris scanning? What about keystroke dynamics?
Marketing can make people aware of a new type of product or make people aware of a problem they didn't know they had before (this was really successful back in the early 1900s when razor companies convinced American women they had to shave their legs and armpits), but it's not the only problem.
just think... if they hadn't done that we might have the russian woman's weight lifting team on during beer commercials and not the swedish bikini team.
Watch Shitty Kung Fu movie clips and play Shitty Kung Fu games
If I want to buy an Intel proc. it will have been half constructed in Ireland to avoid corporation tax.
... your taxes and labour - basically your combined contribution to society - is NOT being spent on the greater good of society - rather it is being spent on a processor that is on a permant holiday travel around the world, taking in all the sights.
That's not a fault of capitalism, that's a fault of government regulation/tariff.
Then it will be built some more in Malaysia - low labour cost. Next it will go to a distribution centre somewhere in Europe (where is not so important). Then on to a wholesaler in Ireland again...I am actually leaving out many loops here Im sure - its even worse!
I'd like to know how this is a bad thing. Chip is designed wherever. It's then mass produced in an area with a low cost of labor. It is then shipped to distibution points, to be shipped to your local computer equiptment store, where you, and hundreds of others can pick up the product. Please, improve this process. After all, the logistics of distributing millions of processors is childs play.
Why? Because you (probably, and I) work in a sosiety whereby
That chip isn't on a holiday, it is getting to it's destination in the most efficient/auditable fashion possible. Furthermore, I fail to see how my tax money is supporting Intel's shipping cost. intel needs chip shipped. Intel contracts with shipping company to ship chip in exchange for payment. Government tax money isn't going to the shipping, nor is it going to intel. If Ireland has ornerous laws set up to force companies who do business there to undergo some arcane shipping route, then perhaps you should inquire as to what government is doing.
Please stop confusing government and capitalism. They are not the same thing. Capitalism has been with us since man first traded five apples for one pointy stick. We just call it the barter system because the cavemen in this example did not change the two things through an intermediary (CASH).
Capitalism must be taken back into the fiery chasm from whence it came.
Yeah, lets replace it with a system wherein your beloved government decides what gets produced, in what quantity, and who gets it! That's a much better solution! And I'm sure there will be no massive supply problems at all this time, since of course we've worked out the kinks from the LAST time we tried it.
"Inattention makes clowns of us all" -Bean
I have seen this prediction time and time again. No more PC, no more PDA, no more walkman, no more HI-FI components. It belongs firmly in the flying cars category.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
flying cars, the technology of the future, a reality in five years! blah blah blah profit ?