What's The Linux Kernel Worth?
schneelocke writes "What's the value of the Linux kernel? After an offer by one Jeff V. Merkey to pay 50K USD for a BSD-licensed copy of Linux, David Wheeler does some calculations and comes up with an estimate of 612M USD." Wheeler has come up with a number of interesting software-worth estimates and other quantified facts about Free software; since some aspects involve ineffables and hypotheticals, the details can be argued, but he provides a good framework with SLOCCount.
By my calculations, the Linux kernel is worth: nothing.
Before you get your tights in a twist, just listen to me for a moment. The value of a product in a capitalistic system is determined by what the market is willing to bear. Yet it is not worth anything if the developers are not willing to sell it at what the market demands. Thus we have a gap. The market would probably be willing to bear a few million (perhaps as high as 50 million) dollars for the Linux IP. Yet it seems that the developers would demand a price in the range of 612 million.
The end result is that the Linux kernel has no market value what so ever. The developers won't sell it at the market's price, and the market won't buy it at the developers price.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
I wouldn't know what to do with it, but can you "buy" it? It's open source, anyone can change it... What would happen if Microsoft "bought" it. Or bought the rights to it.. Just some what if's.
612million / [Developers.Count] = $650 (per machine)
;)
Who woulda thunk it.....
liqbase
sloccount is no measure to go by, its calcuations have no correlation to any software project i have worked on -- its output is mere fantasy!
we should get a better estimate by asking the nice folks at SCO. They seem to know much about this.
... put a price on it. Linux is priceless. Mac OSX is $50.00. Windows is a paperclip and a bubblegum wrapper.
I'm going to go create my own technology news site, with blackjack and hookers. You know what? Forget the news site.
could have a monetary value attached depending of certain criteria. i.e. for Slashcode, if is sold as Weapon of Mass Destruction (of other web sites, a.k.a. slashdotting) could worth millons!
"They want me to be a whore!" -- Linus Torvalds.
In need of reliable and affordable server monitoring?
can i get away by not paying any fees?
what if my customer didnt know that & so he didnt complain?
Is that by the same accounting used by SCO???
Now, I have to wonder, how much would it cost to pay Microsoft to GPL their Office product file formats?
I like big butts and I cannot lie.
The worst that could happen is a fork and a name change.
Someone wrote the kernel ist estimated about USD 1 billion. [Don't know source use ggogle]
about 8000 man years x USD 125,000 = USD 1 Billion
Best of all:
You can get it for free!
Or for a limited time offer of only USD 699,00 from a special company
Grundgesetz * 23. Mai 1949 - 30. November 2007 - http://www.vorratsdatenspeicherung.de/
If you're going to embark on thought experiments, do it without utterly laughable numbers. Perhaps you could get one complex driver for 50000, but not a kernel.
It's worth about $699 per CPU! Don't tell these litigious bastards that at that price, it's way too cheap! :)
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That depends on what price you put on freedom.
In an increasingly technologically based society and future, the GNU license provides the theoretical foundation for freedom.
It's Linux, and all the other Free (as in speech) software that gives us the practical foundation to realise this freedom.
What price on that?
After an offer by one Jeff V. Merkey to pay 50K USD for a BSD-licensed copy of Linux
Why would they do that? What advantage is there to the BSD vs GPL licenses?
The only advantage is that if you redistribute or sell software that is GPLed, you have to provide source code - with BSD you don't.
So, Merkey's company wants to sell modified Linux without providing source code to the modifications. While I doubt the modifications are worth that much, he apparently does.
Why wouldn't Merkey use FreeBSD for the application he wants to sell? Almost all linux software is available for FreeBSD, and then he wouldn't have to pay $50,000 for a license.
Or can someone explain this to me?
My favorite kernel is:
Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
The cost of a product is not necessarily equal to the cost of developing it.
An Indian-American Hindu committed to non-violent thought/speech/action alarmed by the global explosion of radical Islam
Sure it wasn't Stef Murkey?
See what I've been reading.
When people buy commercial 3rd party libraries, they do that because it is cheaper to buy the 3rd party library than to develop everything themselves. I'm pretty sure Qt/Win32 is worth more than the ~$2000 or something you have to pay for a single Enterprise lisence.
(I assume the guy who posted on the linux kernel list didn't mean that those who paid $50 K for a snapshot get the rights to distribute the source with a "BSD style" lisence).
Linux has no price. Is not for sale.
It's like trying to put monetary value on a Van Gogh or a Matisse. The Linux kernel is truly priceless. You could never get that kind of collaboration even with the most highly paid software engineers, beacuse they don't do it for money, neither did Van Gogh.
..thats its value for me.
Life-time (eternal) access to the best OS kernel in the world - for free!!
What is air worth? Some things have great value, but simply trying to measure that value in dollars is to misunderstand the nature of that value.
My next sig will be ready soon, but subscribers can beat the rush
They are asking for a single license, not ownership of the kernel itself. The kernel would remain available in GPL and this one company would be buying the right not to contribute their changes back to the community.
If they sold the rights to the IP then another company could determine how it is licenced and make future versions closed source. GPL does not mean it is public, as US laws require the copyright to belong to specific people. This company could buy the right to develop their own derived version for 50K.
I would say that a price around 1 million would be more in line for a licence and that a price much higher (billion+) for the complete IP rights.
Keep in mind what they are buying. It would allow them to build their own Mac OS X based on Linux and licence it under their terms without giving back to Linux. It would not allow them to deny other distros from using Linux for free under GPL.
MU!
one of the things that make linux valuable this discussion is pretty senseless. Now of course it would also be valuable if it was closed source, but being free and thus having all the value added that open source provides is one of the key assets of linux.
... what purpose does this article serve besides speculation and argument (two totally useless things)? What a waste of bandwidth and resources. Typical /. crap.
We can, to some extent, model the overall economy and predict economic growth, but such models are imprecise. Further, modeling the overall economy is easier than predicting the precise value of a particular good or service because the overall economy is a lumped parameter, the net result of a multitude of forces. Consider predicting the price of an individual stock versus predicting the price of the S&P 500. The latter is hard but roughly do-able; the former is impossible.
So, attempting to calculate the value of the Linux kernel is just another exercise in voodoo economics (tm).
If we really could calculate precisely the value of the Linux kernel, then the implications would be enormous. We could then calculate the true price of all goods and services in the USA. There would be no need for a market economy. The government could then control the economy in much the same fashion that Lenin proposed. The government could then give everyone a number representing each person's correct salary and, also, assign the correct price to everything. There would be no unemployment or recession.
Nirvana.
Clearly it's $699.
Why bother.
Developers and companies who chose to work on linux instead of another OS (Say BSD) is the license. They don't want anyone to take the source and do whatever they want then release it in the market as closed-source. I choose the GPL as a license because it forces other people to publish thier modifications.
You are not alone.
Price of a set of blank CDs to copy the distro: $3
Watching Steve Ballmer fly around the world making promises and cutting the price of Windows to compete: priceless
In terms of the amount of man-hours, resources, user time, and the complexity of it, the linux kernel is probobly worth about as much as the complete blueprints of the Airbus A380.
Strange to think of it in these terms, but when you think about it the kernel is at this point at the same, or a greater level of complexity than an aircraft design, and is probobly in use by more people than the average aircraft model at this point. What is the current population of the republic of linux these days anyway?
May the Maths Be with you!
No price is high enough for the Linux kernel. If Linux is ever translicensed to anything other than the GPL, it paves the way for Microsoft to eventually come up with their own closed-source version of it -- at no cost to them. From there, they could "embrace and extend" it and drive the GPL version of Linux into obscurity.
Think about that, and then tell me how much the Linux kernel is worth. $50,000? A few hundred million? A billion or more? Nope -- it's like a MasterCard commercial, in real life. "Having an operating system Microsoft can never own: PRICELESS."
I suppose I could get a "funny" mod by saying "There are some things money can't buy; for everything else, there's Microsoft" but I'm actually dead serious here.
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Linux - priceless .
Of course, unless you consider all those hours you pored over google results and irc chats about *that* bug in the 2.2 kernel, waay back in '99.
I've invested too much time and effort in Linux to consider it "Free" in an economic sense. But , yeah it pays to be the admin , not developers.But, I've sent my share of patches
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur
is worth a hell of a lot more than MSFT's Windows kernel...
can not put a price on freedom...
Why would you want to pay millions of dollars to buy a copy of Linux under a BSD-like licence, when there is already an operating system available under a BSD-like licence -- and it costs nothing?!
..... decompilation belongs to the same branch of mathematical problems as shape recognition, and if it's true about modern systems being capable of picking out a face from a still photo in real-time video of a moving crowd, well, you can draw your own conclusions.
The 3-clause BSD licence is poisonous, because it allows someone effectively to turn an open-source product into a closed-source one, just by not distributing the source code. {The 2-clause variant allowing source code distribution only is fine for stuff written in interpreted languages -- but makes it inconvenient for stuff written in compiled languages. Although the degree of inconvenience is growing less as processor speeds and drive capacities improve; compiling from source is no longer the drain it once used to be. Nonetheless, ex-Windows bods expect pre-compiled binaries}.
OTOH, if a program is distributed under a 3-clause BSD licence but without source code, you would get a licence to distribute the source code if you could get the source code somehow. And decompilers will soon be a practical reality
Je fume. Tu fumes. Nous fûmes!
Yes, $600 million may be an accurate value for what it would cost to develop Linux from scratch, but how often do people buy software at the price it took to build.
I could purchase a copy of windows for $200 even though it cost a couple of billions to develop. So although this figure is interesting, it really doesn't mean anything -and thats assuming the licensing issues could be overcome.
You know, there's a great Unix-like kernel out there with a BSD-style license: FreeBSD (and other *BSD's).
So what's that make Duke Nukem Forever worth...
100 billion dollars?
"Either lower your dosage or up it."
/me goes off to change his sig
I would say that Linux (in this case, RTFA) is worth the opportunity cost of using another *BSD. That's to say the cost of modifying another kernel to doing the same thing as Linux. So $50000 sounds like a good deal to this guy. If they save a developer salary because of Linux, then $50000 is a good deal to them.
Saying Linux is worth $600M doesn't make sense to a single user, since they can opt for another kernel. But if you can find 12000 small companies, then sure.
The guy clearly wants to use the kernel in a BSD way, which I interpret as wanting to modify Linux without telling the rest of the world about how. And possibly get away from getting accused of breaking the GPL.
What I don't understand is _why_ the guy wants a BSD copy of the Linux kernel. If he wanted to add a specific feature without releasing the code, he could just add for a binary one, right ? (Just like NVidia does)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QDOS
"By many accounts, Kildall did not handle business negotiations and left that to his former wife, Dorothy McEwen and his attorney, neither of whom was willing to sign IBM's non-disclosure agreement. In addition, they refused to modify CP/M-86, and insisted on a higher royalty than IBM proposed. As a result, IBM turned to Microsoft, which licensed 86-DOS for 25,000 USD on SCP's behalf and hired Tim Paterson to port it to the IBM-PC, which used the slower and less expensive Intel 8088 processor. IBM fixed over 300 bugs in the ported version, and wrote the user manual for it. A month before the PC's release, Microsoft purchased 86-DOS from SCP for 50,000 USD. "
Anybody willing to NOT be next Bill Gates ??
Either that or he is a comp[lete moron. $50,000? I mean, come on! Bill Gates paid that amount nearly a quarter century ago for a hobbyist's CP/M knock off when he was a snot nosed kid.
The least he could've done was adjust for inflation. Add to that the fact that Linux is much more sophisticated (and way more lines of code) and any fool can see the offer was a complete joke.
Assuming Merkey was serious about the offer, The BSD license would permit Merkey to sell a commercial OS based on the Linux kernel. Obviously, if he wanted to make a BSD based OS he wouldn't have had to spend money at all--cheap bastard that he is. Yes, you can build most any application from Linux in FreeBSD, but my guess is that he might have a preference for/more familiarity with the architecture of the Linux kernel, and wants to take advantage of the larger and sometimes more mature selection of drivers. Linux is the OSS market leader as well, and finding quality developers would be easier too.
You can't get all the people in a building to agree to walk across the street for ice cream.
Never mind this deal...
"Win treats sysadmins better than users. Mac treats users better than sysadmins. Linux treats everyone like sysadmins."
With the GPL you make GPL software better. With BSD you make all software better. Many of us still use Windows from time to time... why wouldn't we want Windows to be better too? Even if Windows becomes better than every *BSD in every way we can still have our own functional, free (libre) operating system.
Really who past their adolescence actually cares about Linux beating Windows? They are tools, use them. You'll always have your free one so the rest doesn't matter.
Your CPU is not doing anything else, at least do something.
You are assuming that market value is the only measure of worth. Even in capitalist accounting (GAAP) you are mistaken.
To an accountant, all assets are valued at their expense, minus any prior amortization or markdowns. Most Linux users would thus have to include in their valuation any time they spent downloading, configuring, and installing the kernel.
I would have to include a few hundred dollars for the time to develop, test, and submit the (very small) patch I submitted. With ten years of their life put into it, Linus Torvalds, Alan Cox, etc would each have to value it at several million dollars.
This article raises some interesting questions. Let's consider the following scenario: Assume that Corporation X would like to develop a closed-source product based on the Linux kernel. They offer to pay a certain amount of money for a commercially licensed kernel. To avoid arguments about who gets the money and in what amount, the money will be paid to a commonly agreed charity. Let's also assume, for the sake of the discussion, that it is feasible to contact all kernel contributors and get their agreement to this. My questions are:
- Would you agree to such an arrangement?
- How much do you think it should cost? What would be the pricing structure? (one time payment, royalties based on time/number of units sold etc)
- Do you think the price should vary based on who's buying? Should Microsoft pay more than, say, IBM?
If con is the opposite of pro, is Congress the opposite of progress?
I personally believe the last string holding Linux back is the GPL. If there was ONE linux fork that could be under the BSD tree and one under the GPL tree, how does that hurt anything? The GPL believe that the GPL is the best thing in the world and that's the best way to develop software. So why don't the GPL followers just continue development with the GPL and then the BSD believers could develop on the BSD tree. And we'll get to see which becomes the BEST linux in the end.
It would be an excellent way to actually test the beliefs of the GPL vs BSD. Uptill now it's just speculation and feelings as to what would happen.
But if that was done, it wouldn't be linux anymore..
It would be a total rewrite.. and be something else..
---- Booth was a patriot ----
David Wheeler's answer is based on how much it *costs* to make. This is different from how valuable the kernel is to a buyer.
For example, Windows is *worth* more than it costs to produce (based on profit margins), meaning people are willing to pay more than it takes to make it, which is another way of saying that Windows is worth more to consumers than it costs to make.
Now, windows is a monopoly so the price tends to go towards the worth of the product, not the cost. Linux is highly competitive (with many distributions), and the price tends towards the cost of the product. Therefore, it is very difficult to calculate the value of the kernel since the Linux market is based on the costs, not value.
Am I losing it or have I just been smoking too much weed. Last I checked, the Linux kernel was free.
And FreeBSD does not, because it's dead.
Markey just wants to get his grubby hands upon all the free publicity that Linux has already built up.
TheKing@graceland.com
I'm not really dead, I swear it.
--Elvis
There seem to be a remarkably large number of people posting on this one who haven't read past the title, never mind the article.
This isn't about a consumer price for a kernel binary. Comparisons with copies of Windows are irrelevant. The $612 million dollars quoted is a suggested figure representing the kind of cost a commercial company would have to take on to develop an identical operating system kernel.
Software companies have in the past changed hands for large sums of money. The brand is of course worth some of that money, as are relationships with existing customers, but a large part of that value is the IP possessed by the company. There are few companies that have possessed software assets of a complexity and widespread use comparable to the Linux kernel that have changed hands, and such companies when sold have been bought for large sums - to pick one example, Netscape was bought by AOL at a price tag of $4.2 billion dollars.
The value of the Linux kernel code and Linux branding, if a company with sufficient resources were interested in obtaining it, and if it were for sale, would quite probably exceed this figure of $612 million by a sizeable percentage.
$50K is a derisory offer for even an non-exclusive right to develop and redistribute the IP, which is effectively what a solitary copy under the BSD licence would give. Certainly the company I work for would laugh helplessly if such an offer was made for our code, which is several orders of magnitude smaller and less complex than the kernel.
Savant
From the article:
"But with a BSD-style release, someone else could take the code and establish a competing proprietary product, and it would take time for the kernel developers to add enough additional material to compete with such a product."
So, assuming that SCO is behind this offer, and we all know that Microsoft and SCO are in bed together, and one of the main reasons behind pushing Linux into the mainstream is because of the distaste for Microsoft, is Linux AFRAID of some competition from Microsoft?????
Considering the several free kernels (OpenBSD, FreeBSD, NetBSD to give a few) of comparable (or superior, some would say) design, performance, and extensibility, which can be used in any commercial product you like, I'd say the market is very weak. When comparable products sell for $0, your product isn't worth (read: market value) much more than that. -Dan
Well, actually Canopy (his name is listed on a patent obtained by Canopy), but close enough.
Gentlemen, at this time, I ask that you don your tinfoil hats.
with BSD you don't
Exactly. Now, suppose you want to sell licenses to people for using your IP in Linux, but people tell you "hey, that's under GPL - you distributed it, so you can't charge a license fee."
Merkey's company wants to sell modified Linux without providing source code to the modifications.
Yes, yes it does. Think about that - think about the lawsuit - perhaps they were thinking that they could snow the kernel devs into selling them a "get out of jail free" (perhaps even in a literal sense) card for $50.000.
What's it worth? Hmmm, I'll throw out the first number that pops into my head...How does 503 sound?
I'll turn into a supernova and burn up everything. Well I'll turn into a black little hole and you'll turn into string.
There was a bit about Jeff Merkey on Groklaw recently. Seems that he's associated with the Canopy Group, SCO's parent company. It should be extremely obvious why *they* would want a non-GPL fork of Linux. There's also been a lot of discussion about him on the Yahoo SCO board, and you can find a lot of those comments here.
Why the disparity? It all goes back to the constants you use to calibrate the COCOMO model. I used his constants, which he chose somewhat arbitrarily but reasonably. The point being, the model used is uncalibrated, and at any rate such models may be entirely bogus.
Of course, there is now COCOMO II, which is a more complicated way of creating bogus estimates.
What is mathematics worth? Shouldn't we pay Pythagoras' decendants a royalty each time we use his triangle theorem? How about the theory of electromagnetism? Shouldn't we kick in a few cents to Maxwell's decendents each time we use an electrical device? The works of Shakespeare? Free software, like the Linux kernel belong to a body of knowledge that is not really saleable but are beyond value. Our society may be highly influenced by capitalist ideas, but they are not universal.
an ill wind that blows no good
The market value of the Linux kernel, like anything else, is determined by supply and demand. Because of the way it's licensed and the fact that no one company controls the distribution, the supply is basically infinite and so the fair market value is zero.
It's a lot like air, which also has a market value of zero. There's plenty of it to go around even though it's free. Therefore it has no economic value.
Of course, another similarity between Linux and air is that it's really valuable to those who use it. But since there's enough of both to go around for free, no one can make money charging for either one.
Remember the days when Republicans were the party of fiscal responsibility?
Are you implying that "Linux" is an actual marketable brand?!!! /. trolls keep telling me that only basement-dwelling loser troglodites use Linux!
All the
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
on a BSD copy of win xp professional.
Let us know what they are willing to sell one for. Oh, and for the people who are saying that the kernel is worth nothing because there is not market under the offer, I guess win xp also has no value under the same offer.
A Nony Mouse
Only by agreeing with everyone who contributed with code to the kernel they could change the license
That is only true if the contributor retains the copyright for his/her fragment of the code. If it is all Linus' copyright then the contributors would have no say. Much as contributors have no say when they transfer their code to the FSF.
According to an IBM rep who spoke to our LUG 2 years ago, IBM promised to invest 1 Billion in Linux because they had estimated it would take them $10 Billion to get it to where it was then. That was in the 2.4 stage. Now, with the 2.6 kernel, it should be worth another Billion or so. Of course, I'm willing to sell copies of the latest kernel to all comers for only $500. That includes a year of my "Platinum Support".
HexaByte - he's a square and a half!
According to SCO, it should be $699 per machine.
You're paying WAY too much for your blank CDs!
HexaByte
HexaByte - he's a square and a half!
in the newsgroup thread: http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=en&lr=&c2coff=1 &safe=off&frame=right&th=1606e9c6afe19691&seekm=2M MU9-71k-11%40gated-at.bofh.it#s
.signature not found
Someone wrote the kernel ist estimated about USD 1 billion
You confuse investment with worth. Companies fail to recover their investment costs every day because the market says their product/service is not worth that much. Would you value MS Windows at how much MS has spent on it?
I'd kind of say it's commercial value is zero, because if it had cost more than that no one would ever have picked up on it. It pitched in at exactly the price the market would support: nothing. That probably doesn't make any sense. my brain is all used up for today.
So, MSWindows code market value is zero, too, since you're not going to be able to buy it.
Perhaps one can measure the worth of the Linux kernel in its current state, but it would never have been worth anything without being both free and Free.
Uh...there are already kernels developed under the BSD license. A lot of them. Most of which have been in development longer than linux.
Yes, and the older uber-geeks often prefer the BSDs. However there is much more hype about Linux and the suits and PHBs have heard about Linux. In short, Linux may be an easier sell for some application for political reasons, not technical reasons. Welcome to the real world.
How much are you willing to pay me for it? Though you can get a much better deal if you buy the GPLed version, we have many in stock.
All of the other versions are probably out of your price range.
I think you underestimate just how much I just dont care.
First of all, the price of Windows OS has little to do with the cost of licensing a kernel of a Unix OS.
1. Windows OS is much more than a kernel. It is a set of APIs, applications developed using those APIs, and a microkernel, among other things. It also has a huge host of drivers designed to work with that kernel, many of which were designed by Microsoft themselves.
2. The cost of licensing a kernel does not determine the price of the operating system that is based on it, although it is certainly a factor.
3. The price of Windows is based on what the market will pay, which is determined in large part by the fact that Microsoft is a monopoly, and people are forced to buy their product. Additionally, the large majority of software works only on Windows. This artificially raises the price of the OS, meaning that other OSes might be priced similarly if the software support were there.
BSD based kernels allow one to do most of the same things that the Linux kernel does. The Windows kernel's design dictates that similar software will not easily be ported from *nix, a problem the BSD kernels do not have. There are GNU distros being developed on BSD kernels:
Debian FreeBSD
NetBSD
Based on this, and based on the fact that almost all opensource software that runs on Linux runs on FreeBSD, I'd say the market values of the kernels are pretty damn comparable. Your Windows example, however, isn't.
-Dan
Why do people keep refering to software as art?
Software is a science, you should look at it as science.
Sure software, as art, can be elegant but there is a difference. Art tries to please, shock or bore you. it just depends on how you interpreter it. Software, when interpreted should just work...
N.B. Linux (not linus) is replaceable La Musique is not.
Wouter
David Wheeler estimated only development cost. But for end-user products the brand itself usually worth more than development cost. How much Linux brand worth ? If we suppose that Linux account for 5% desktop (not sure how to add desktops, servers and smartphones) that mean Linux brand worth at least 5% of windows. So I'd say Linux brand is worth several billions (below 10 billions).
You can always come to slashdot for a good rehash of the week's stupidest LKML threads.
How much is it worth if you add the GNU part?
Development costs by Microsoft 2,000,000,000
Buying out the compitition 1,000,000,000
In court related costs 500,000,000
Lost revenue from pirates 200,000,000
Having to compete against a free alternative PRICELESS
There are some kernals you just cant buy, for everything else theres Master Card(TM)
Let's see, if Linus and Alan and the rest of the big names all got together and put their own code in the pot, and you left out all the GPL-ed contributions from third parties, kind of like a Net-2 release of Linux...
I guess you could put something together that was about like a ten year old Slackware release. It'd take a couple of years to replace the missing bits. I think you'd be better off keeping this in mind: "If 386bsd had been ready one year earlier, I'd probably not have started on linux at all, but used bsd instead - although I'm very happy with how it all turned out." -- Linus Torvalds, December 1992 . There's already a BSD-licensed kernel you can have, gratis, and it works rather nicely indeed.
With the number of contributors to the linux kernel, including kernel core, patches, modules, etc etc... who would you even buy it from?
I don't think there's any one person/group that can claim full ownership to the current kernel.
The $612 million dollars quoted is a suggested figure representing the kind of cost a commercial company would have to take on to develop an identical operating system kernel.
I'll do it for $50K. It'll be ready as soon as I can do a global search-and-replace on this copy of the FreeBSD source tree. Unless you want the Linux name on it, there's really not much point in licensing the actual kernel, and if you do... well... doesn't matter how much you pay to develop a Linux clone it won't have the name on it.
In other words, this is the crux of the biscuit:
The value of the Linux kernel code and Linux branding, [...] would quite probably exceed this figure of $612 million by a sizeable percentage.
Indeed.
Netscape was bought by AOL at a price tag of $4.2 billion dollars
And they promptly discarded most of the existing code and started over with a new rendering engine: what they ended up buying was the name. Similarly, if someone's looking for a BSD-licensed Linux what they're really looking to get out of it is the name... if they just want a kernel they can get one a lot cheaper.
Microsoft Windows (XP Pro) : ~$399
A bigger hard drive, faster processor, and more RAM to be able to hold all that bloat: ~$450
Installing GNU/Linux and never again having to worry about virii, adware, and spyware: priceless.
It's very easy to put a hard monetary value on a painting. Pay Sotheby's or Christie's to auction it off. At this point, you could probably even use eBay as your venue.
The same could be done for a Linux kernel snapshot. While general consensus hold US$50K as far too little, that does not mean it is priceless.
If the owner/owning entity is unwilling to sell, you can wait for them to die/dissolve and ownership to be transferred to someone/something more willing to sell. There are also ways of speeding up this process if the buyer is willing to spend extra to do so.
....or do they only value them based upon their cashflows and sales projections?
I'm kind of thinking of the world I work in (advertising), where I've been told that ad companies are usually bought and sold valued on 3-5 year profit projections, and even then there's a lot of negotiating room based upon the stability of key client relationships, client spending plans and patterns, etc.
Advertising is more limited in that the IP is sold once and reused by the client, seemingly forever in some cases, so the only "value" is in the particular collection of employees and the client relationships.
Given how nebulous IP is vs. real estate, machines, mining rights, train tracks and all the other physical property manifestations of a business, it just makes me wonder how often anyone looks at the "inherent" value of the IP vs. just what people might buy the IP for in the future (ie, future sales and cashflow).
Is this Jeff Merkey possibly a brother to Paul Murky of Merky Research, the assistants to the good folks at Car Talk?
However, your next statement is somewhat missing the point: "Estimating based on what it would cost in a commercial environment is also flawed, because there are too many variables to consider." Yes, salaries and overheads vary, and they'll certainly affect the answer. But I used a U.S.-nationwide average for salaries, and several sources for the overhead value. See "Gigabuck" for more info. So this is an "average" kind of development. If you don't like those assumptions, I gave enough information for you to recompute everything using different values. But you have to make some assumptions, and I think these are quite reasonable ones; I basically picked averages to represent an "average" development project's costs.
But then you say stuff that I think isn't right: "The bottom line is, since the developers have always been paid nothing for their work (except those that are being sponsored by commercial entities) ... since in all likelihood if these guys weren't writing the code in their spare time, they would be doing some other hobby...
The bottom line here is, the only time that you can assign a value to is the time that someone actually received a wage for. This is a small minority of the overall code base, so by that method the code would not be worth much at all."
Two problems: first, I'm computing re-development cost, and presuming that the developers would be getting a wage. And second, most of the changes in the Linux kernel are from developers getting a wage to do so.
In fact, the move to wage-earning OSS/FS development has been one of the silent trends in the IT industry. In 2004, Government Computer News reported in July 2004 on a presentation by Andrew Morton, who leads maintenance of the the Linux kernel in its stable form, and confirmed the trend towards paid OSS/FS developers. Morton spoke at a meeting sponsored by the Forum on Technology and Innovation, to address technology-related issues, held by Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), Sen. Ron Wyden (D- Ore.) and the Council on Competitiveness. Morton noted that "People's stereotype [of the typical Linux developer] is of a male computer geek working in his basement writing code in his spare time, purely for the love of his craft. Such people were a significant force up until about five years ago ..." but contributions from such enthusiasts, "is waning... Instead, most Linux kernel code is now generated by corporate programmers." Morton noted that "About 1,000 developers contribute changes to Linux on a regular basis... Of those 1,000 developers, about 100 are paid to work on Linux by their employers. And those 100 have contributed about 37,000 of the last 38,000 changes made to the operating system."
For more about the general trend of employed OSS/FS developers, see http://www.dwheeler.com/oss_fs_why.html#wont-destr oy-industry.
This isn't new in a sense; X Windows was started
this way, as was Apache. It's just become
more common.
- David A. Wheeler (see my Secure Programming HOWTO)
I bet I could eff them!
Why does everyone when talking about why they don't like the BSD license talk about MS?
What about all the other small software shops that could benefit from BSD code?
"... David Wheeler does some calculations and comes up with an estimate of 612M USD."
I have a great deal of respect for David Wheeler. His algorithm for estimating the worth of software is a well-established and robust method. But, to be sure, I ran the same calculations...
I reached up into my ass and pulled out a number. But in my attempt, I came up with $1.57. I'll try it a couple more times to make sure.
He's only asking for a non-exclusive BSD license.
He's not asking to prohibit the GPL versions.
I figure, $800 would do for me. Probably half of
the developers would have a similar attitude.
Maybe 10% would insist on some outrageous value
like "billions and billions" or infinity, and the
remaining 40% would say "go ahead, no charge".
If you only wanted the core code plus a few
drivers needed for your hardware, you could get
about 90% of the code from around 500 developers.
So, your costs are:
1. 200 to 900 thousand for 90% of the code
2. the cost of lawyers and such
3. the cost of replacing 10% you couldn't buy
That's not bad. You're out 1 to 3 million
as far as I can tell.
For some very very very very very loose definition of "Linux", FreeBSD *is* Linux! No, really. I saw an ad once for a vendor that was selling Linux distributions, and there was FreeBSD on the list of Linux distributions....
:)
Heck, who am I to tell 'em different? I used to refer to Abiword as "my version of Word", as in, "My version of Word seems to have problems with your file, could you try resending as RTF?" Nobody ever questioned me (which just shows how overrated the notion of Word as a "standard" is).
FWIW, "their work" in this context means that part of their contribution to Linux that is not derived from the work of the many thousands of other contributors according to the standard rules of copyright. Linus has stated in LKML that code is very unlikely to avoid being "derived", and therefore being subject to GPL, if it refers directly to kernel symbols, or includes kernel header files.
This is something that people on /. ought to understand: the difference between null and zero.
The market value of the linux kernel is null--it does not have one. That's very different from having a value of zero, which would be the case if there were a market and the only way you could transfer ownership of the kernel in that market would be to give it away.
Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
I'm done with the invites. for those that got em. enjoy em!
Groklaw found a recent Canopy patent with Merkey's name on it but they didn't seem to touch on the fact that he's posting from the drdos.com domain.
Where did DRDOS fit in with Caldera/SCO/Canopy again?
I ran both Gentoo and BSD through these calculations and I can now say unequivically that BSD is dead and Gentoo is following closely in its footsteps.
You know how much a hello world is worth?
;-p
#include <stdio.h>
int
main(int argc, char **argv)
{
printf("Hello world!\n");
return 0;
}
Total Physical Source Lines of Code (SLOC) = 7
Schedule Estimate, Years (Months) = 0.04 (0.48)
Total Estimated Cost to Develop = $ 148
generated using David A. Wheeler's 'SLOCCount'
but i think he wouldn't want anyone to know in this case
One linux kernel 2.6.7 downloaded from kernel.org. This kernel has a value of $612 million and the bidding will start at the low low price of $10 dollars. Bid often for as linux slowly gains more and more marketshare the value will increase substationaly making this a sure-fire proft making investment no matter how high the winning bid.
>
Don't you mean $699? ;-)
If you ask Darl, you'll likely just hear him muttering "eleventy billion" or somesuch numbers, while rubbing his hands together greedily and occasionally interjecting "nasty, sneaky IBMses, they stole our preciousss, our precioussssss source code..."
They also think my wife is worth nothing I might add.
Not so.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
FROM:p s?hl=en&lr=&newwindo w=1&c2coff=1&safe=off&threadm=2MMU9-71k-11%40gated -at.bofh.it&rnum=1&prev=/groups%3Fq%3Dg:thl3463994 640d%26dq%3D%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26selm%3D2MMU9-71k- 11%2540gated-at.bofh.it
.com stock market Google style IPO scams. It can happen.
Groups.google.com
Subject: Possible GPL Violation of Linux...
Newsgroup: linux.kernel
I.E.
http://groups.google.com/grou
Jeff Merkey (a money-grubbing intelligent asshole whoops I mean businessman) clarifys his offer writing:
Chris Friesen wrote:
> Jeff V. Merkey wrote:
>
>> We offer to kernel.org the sum of $50,000.00 US for a one time
>> license to the Linux Kernel Source for a single snapshot of
>> a single Linux version by release number. This offer must be
>> accepted by **ALL** copyright holders and this snapshot will
>> subsequently convert the GPL license into a BSD style license for the code.
> For an unlimited use license of the linux tree, $50,000 USD is ludicrously tiny.
$50,000 per copy -- that's a hell of a pricetag. Windows only goes for $100.00 a copy.
You guys should be flattered.
Let's see, 10,000 companies x $50,000.00 a pop = $500,000,000 / year in license fees. What a deal. 500,000,000 / 300 developers = 1.1 million per year for each of you.
Sounds like good business to me.
Companies will line up to do this, and what's great is you will still get new licensees every year, so long as you keep ahead of the curve with innovation.
Jeff
A just prior missive read:
>If you want to spend god alone knows how many hours tracking down
>who wrote what and nuking the relevant bits, that's your time to throw
>away. If you want the same featureset a little faster however, I
>believe SCO are still selling Openserver licenses.
> Dave
We would spend the time or remove the code. OpenServer??? Gag?? Puke??
According to Carl "Mad Dog" McBride Linux is already his "product" (What a joke). OpenServer is not Linux.
If I receive a confirmation from A) Linus or B) Alan then we will profer a license agreement for everyone to review and sign off on via PGP secure email.
We will worry about who is no longer available. We need the core folks whose names appear as the original author in the master header of each file to sign off. They will need to certify which files are theirs and send a confirmation.
This can be done, and if there is a process in place, others can come and give money as well.
It's time ALL YOU GUYS got rewarded for your hard work, and not just those who positioned themselves to get fat stock options and IPO preffered stock for
Jeff
From: Gene Heskett (gene.heskett@verizon.net)
Subject: Re: Possible GPL Violation of Linux in Amstrad's E3 Videophone
View this article only
Newsgroups: linux.kernel
Date: 2004-10-08 06:00:33 PST
On Friday 08 October 2004 08:38, Gene Heskett wrote:
>On Friday 08 October 2004 03:15, Jon Masters wrote:
>>-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
>>Hash: SHA1
>>
>>jmerkey@galt.devicelogics.com wrote:
Interesting too, that address just changed its name to Duncan, it
bounced like a yo-yo. One more clue that this is the fox, trying to
sneak into the penguinhouse for a killing. I just took him out of
the Cc: list...
I repeat:
>My $0.02: Deal with the likes of him at the peril of the GPL.
--
Cheers, Gene
"There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty:
soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order."
-Ed Howdershelt (Author)
99.27% setiathome rank, not too shabby for a WV hillbilly
Yahoo.com attorneys please note, additions to this message
by Gene Heskett are:
Copyright 2004 by Maurice Eugene Heskett, all rights reserved.
The Linux code is owned by, perhaps, thousands of people [the individual contributors/copyrightholders]. Each of these could sell you non-GPL rights to their code, but not to anyone elses.
Linus "owns" probably less than 10% of the code. That'a a much bigger share than the 0.05% or so that I've written, but he still can't sell it.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
my 2 cents!
Last time I saw Merkey he was working for a Canopy company. Canopy bankrolls SCO. So follow the money people. Jeff's offer is simply another way of trying to help SCO establish value for the lawsuit. Knee bone connected to the leg bone.... The head bone connected to the pelvis bone...
There are probably well over a thousand individual contributors. How can anyone haggle as to what % they should get ??on a per line basis??: "My code is more complicated than yours...").
There is no single legal entity that can negotiate on behalf of everyone, so there cannot be an agreement on the $50K. Getting everyone together and agreeing on amount would cost a bundle.
If almost everyone agree but, say, 1% of the people refuse then you get into a hostage situation. ie. 99% will take their slice of the $50k and the last 1% say no, or say they want more. Now what? OK, you could in theory rewrite those sections and throw those people out, but that is not realistic. It would cost more than $50k to rewrite that 1% of the code.
At the end of the day the whole idea is broken and is as meaningless as trying to sell/buy the sky.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
HOW ABOUT A GAPING ASSHOLE, SCARECROW?!?
*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*
g_______________________________________________g
o_/_____\_____________\____________/____\_______o
a|_______|_____________\__________|______|______a
t|_______`._____________|_________|_______:_____t
s`________|_____________|________\|_______|_____s
e_\_______|_/_______/__\\\___--___\\_______:____e
x__\______\/____--~~__________~--__|_\_____|____x
*___\______\_-~____________________~-_\____|____*
g____\______\_________.--------.______\|___|____g
o______\_____\______//_________(_(__>__\___|____o
a_______\___.__C____)_________(_(____>__|__/____a
t_______/\_|___C_____)/______\_(_____>__|_/_____t
s______/_/\|___C_____)_garcia|__(___>___/__\____s
e_____|___(____C_____)\______/__//__/_/_____\___e
x_____|____\__|_____\\_________//_(__/_______|__x
*____|_\____\____)___`----___--'_____________|__*
g____|__\______________\_______/____________/_|_g
o___|______________/____|_____|__\____________|_o
a___|_____________|____/_______\__\___________|_a
t___|__________/_/____|_________|__\___________|t
s___|_________/_/______\__/\___/____|__________|s
e__|_________/_/________|____|_______|_________|e
x__|__________|_________|____|_______|_________|x
*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*_g_o_a_t_s_e_x_*
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Here's an email from Phil Kaplan stating his views of the offer to license Linux. I thought Slashdot would be a good place to post this. Jeff Phil Kaplan pk2@uranium.club.cc.cmu.edu Phil Kaplan wrote: > hey, retard, even if that pathetic, stupid offer' was a joke, it was a > bad joke, insulting, in poor taste, and indicative of a total cluelessness > on your part, or on the part of whoever holds your leash. some shitheads > back at the canopy group, maybe? there's already a license, called the > GPL. It allows you, and anyone else, to use Linux as much as you want, > copy it, give it to your friends, your customers, even your goldfish if > you like. It's not for sale. the whole point is that it's free. if you > don't get that, or if you're trying to create some kind of paper-thin > foundation for some kind of bullshit legal mumbo-jumbo that you our your > handlers might think will save SCO from total oblivion and the investors > back home from losing their asses (this whole lawsuit was just a pump&dump > scheme anyway), well, you're just an asshole, and you can with my > compliments go fuck yourself. > > > The only thing funny about this email and your comments has to do with physiology. I am amazed and astounded that your brain is able to generate enough electrical energy to make your fingers move to type this. I am not with Canopy, I am with Bryan Sparks, the person who founded the first Linux company. We want to buy out of the GPL. If you can't see this or figure it out then you are acting like a "retard". Jeff
Even a highly polished 100kt diamond isn't worth one red cent if nobody wants it.
-MerkX
There is a market for kernels.
There is not a market for Linux kernels.
The Linux kernel still has value in the earlier market.
There is a market for paintings.
There is not a market for Mono Lisas.
The Mona Lisa still has value in the earlier market.
This seams to be the going rate for operating systems code... the first DOS (QDOS) was bought off a guy by Gates for $50,000 dollars as well. DOS History
Asking the price of the Linux Kernel is pointless.
What exactly would you be buying?
The right to make it proprietary? (Sell it or a derivative for a lot of money) That'd be worth a lot to a few of companies - who wouldn't sell it they'd just keep it locked up and continue selling their own product?
The right to use it? Value there would be $0 thanks. You already have that for free unless you want to modify in a way that doesn't comply with the GPL.
The right to sell it. People already do that - oh sorry correction my mistake sell support for it.
The question is pointless because you can't un-GPL it once its been released under GPL...which is the point of that license.
I think the question being asked here is what would it cost to develop something similar? The answer is bucketloads. But why would you want to? How many freaking times does UNIX need to be redeveloped. Go create a different OS.
These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
I don't think it was the current one.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Sometimes it's 0L. At other times, it's ((void *)0). And I'm sure that at sometime in the past it was ((char *)0).
Do daemons dream of electric sleep()?
As Linux has just modelled itself on other UNIX like operating systems ( primarily Minix and System V ) why not just use them and make the changes yourself ?
> the source code to Windows XP, Windows 2000 Professional or Mac OS X under a BSD license would cost considerably more than the prices you quote.
..
.. They are install binaries.
When did Linux start shipping under BSD license ?.
(btw, Mac OS X's Darwin is BSD licensed)
And, I suppose all those Redhat disks contain
source code ?
Plenty of boxes ship with modified embedded Linux without the sources, if you ask the sources you are laughed at.
Try to get the kernel modification for Check Point SecurePlatform for example.
Your point is moot as the GPL is just not respected...
In my humble opinion, all this debating is really very unnecessary.
The mere fact that GNU/Linux offers a Free, publicly-owned, competitive alternative to Microsoft makes it worth (at the very least) hundreds of billions, but, more appropriately, priceless.