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DIY Polling Shows Bush, Kerry Will Win
cheese_wallet writes "7-eleven has a poll conducted by the choice of cup their customers pick for their coffee. They can pick a Kerry cup, a Bush cup, or a Third Party/No Opinion cup (interesting combo). Although it is considered completely unscientific, it polls millions of people and gets past the cell phone barrier. You can see the current stats." And reader Noryungi writes "This is very tongue-in-cheek... Harry's Bar, in Paris (France) has been conducting straw polls for the past 80 years, and has been wrong only once, in 1976. So... who is the winner, according to Harry's Bar poll, for the 2004 US election? Kerry. And not by small numbers either, Kerry wins 56% to 44% in the latest Straw Vote, which is a larger margin than all the other US-based pollsters."
What if you have a Bush (or Kerry) supporter decideds to swing the results (they would be pritty immature to do this) they could buy 20 or more cups of coffie a day, well the only justis is if they try to drink them all they might not live to see the elections
Don't use these numbers to do anything important.
Urban areas (where one would find more 7/11s) tend to go Democratic. Hence the inherent bias in the figures.
Among those Americans who are online 44% support Bush and 39% support Kerry.
Kerry's polling well in France? You don't say!
The only poll that counts is the election-day poll anyway. Heaven forbid anyone actually do something with a poll.
Of course, we all still like to see our favourite candidate winning even if, for non-Rep/non-Dem supporters, the definition of "winning" simply is "increased numbers", but, even then, the only results that matter, even for non-mainstream candidates, is that final election-day vote.
In other crucial election news, busts of Bush and Kerry carved out of hummus became the focus of a controversy when an unknown individual ate part of Kerry's head. It's not known whether this action was politically motivated or if someone simply mistook Kerry for an hors d'oeuvre.
What I'm listening to now on Pandora...
The 7-11 by me only had Bush cups a few days ago.
Either they were trying to swing the poll, or they had sold out of the Kerry cups.
I'm guessing it's the latter, since I live in a fairly liberal area, and all of the local stop signs have been modified to read:
"STOP
BUSH"
no text la la la la la
We all know that the NFL really determines the outcome of the elections! And I gotta say, things are not looking up for King George at this point.
Every year during my review, I just pray the words "slashdot.org" aren't mentioned.
According to the coffee-poll site, Kerry + Bush (48.89 + 51.11%) = 100%, but they have 3rd option. No one chose it? Maybe I'm just bitter about corporate sponsored polls, but 7-11's poll seems pretty dicey.
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make install -not war
Every morning before work (if I'm not running too terribly late) I ask myself who I plan to vote for.
So far Kerry's numbers look very good, while Dubya appears likely to be filing for unemployment soon.
Sure, the sample size leaves something to be desired, but I feel my methods are *at least* as accurate as polling drunk expats in Paris.
Quantum materiae materietur marmota monax si marmota monax materiam possit materiari?
Let's assume that the straw poll only takes into account the fact that a 56 - 44 popular vote could still result in a win for Bush in the electoral college.
The 7/11 poll is disturbingly evenly split. The difference is so small that voting irregularities could easily constitute the margin.
Also you have to take into consideration the fact that even if this survey was done on a large enough and evenly dispersed population to be accurate and that everyone voted truthfully, NOT EVERYONE WILL VOTE. Does anyone know if Democrats are statistically more or less likely to actually go out and vote than Republicans.
These three things alone will determine our election.
-- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
"Although billed as unabashedly unscientific and unofficial, we were surprised at just how accurate the 7-Election poll proved in the 2000 election."
I wonder what exactly they mean by this. What exactly was there that was predictable about 2000? It seems they could claim 'accurate' results either way... if they showed Gore winning, they could claim to mirror the popular vote. If they showed Bush winning... they accurately predicted what? A supreme court decision? Hmm.. I coulda sworn I was going somewhere with this.
"Mind, as manifested by the capacity to make choices, is to some extent present in every electron." -Freeman Dyson
These kind of unscientific polls are often misinterpreted by the masses and can demoralize potential voters. This is clearly biased against the most deserving candidate.
Nader ALL THE WAY baby! YEAAAHHH!
Man... that's good pot.
You may think it is a joke but consider this.
It is the sugar, caffeine and alcohol addicted populace that really runs this country.
So the main question is, who is more important, the drunks or the soda addicts?
Now, there is one problem that not everyone gets their soda from 7-eleven.
Heck, when it is this close you might as well be flipping a coin to predict what's going to happen.
And are we still waiting for the October Suprise?
Did I blink and miss it?
Nobody died when Nixon lied.
I'm meeting you half way you stupid hippies!
Unfortunately for Kerry, the children's Weekly Reader poll says otherwise.
... I always knew I didn't like kids.
Since 1956, Weekly Reader students in grades 1-12 have correctly picked the president, making the Weekly Reader poll one of the most accurate predictors of presidential outcomes in history.
But that's the worst spelling of Starbucks I have ever seen. Seriously, wander around Seattle some time and take a hard look at who's really serious about their coffee and willing to back it up with cold hard cash. But not directly at them, that's dangerous.
Well, I suppose we also learn that some companies will take advantage of any situation in the effort to sell more product... and also, that Slashdot is happy to link to your promotional campaign for free if describe it right.
The lesson? Stick with what you do best 7-11. Selling hot 3-day-old rotating meat logs.
So you're saying we should look at the other poll instead? Based on your logic, I'd like to point out a problem: not all drunks voting in US elections buy their drink in an american bar in Paris, France.
No, that's another flaw that I meant, but forgot, to point out.
What I meant when I said.... "Now, there is one problem that not everyone gets their soda from 7-eleven." I meant are people that get their soda at Circle K different than people who go to 7-eleven, as well as other convenient stores, minimarts, supermarkets, vending machines etc.
As if it isn't annoying enough to getting phone calls from the Democratic party 4 times a day. Next time they call I'll tell them "Well, I was going to vote for Kerry, but I'm so sick of your phone calls I'm voting for Bush."
The problem with that is it could be Bush supporters pretending to be Democrats. I hate them all anyway.
And what is up with everyone asking who you are going to vote for?
I've heard that "they" even have maps of everyone and who they are voting for.
Maybe they are going to declair marshal law no matter who gets elected, and send the losers off to special camps.
At first I was telling people who I was planning to vote for, but I'm still not sure who I'm going to vote for and maybe I should have told them "none of your business."
Nobody died when Nixon lied.
I'm meeting you half way you stupid hippies!
HULK: 9,684 BUSH: 9,472 KERRY: 8,937
This is despite at least one "Kerry-Bot" that tried to stuff the ballot with hundreds of electronic votes (I guess it would be hard to stuff the 7/11 cup vote!) - needless to say, those votes were discounted and that IP address was banned.
Hulk SMASH Celiac Disease
Well, we know that the USA doesn't allow it (yet), but does France allow non-natives to run for président de la France? Unfortunately for Kerry, Chirac's term won't end until 2009...
With the Bush cups at the checkup line, I went looking for a Kerry cup. I was told it was "Back there".
I walked through the cooler, into the storage shed in the back, crawled under the chicken wire enclosure, picked the lock on the cabinet door, opened the door, got the cup, took it back to the counter, and was told there was a $5 cooler tax.
Damn battleground states.
GPL'd web-based tradewars themed space game
So the dem-reps get another four years. Oh I'm shocked. I guess people are turned on by the prospect of having the world population locked up in terrorist-safe cages.
I am NOT a number! I am a - oh wait, I'm number 761710. Look! 761710!
I meant to vote for Kerry, dammit!
According to 7-11, Bush cup supporters enjoy their coffee with plenty of rich cream and sugar, while Kerry cup supporters prefered they're coffee black or opted for a more international blend. With less the one percent of the cup vote third party cups remained unused, cup voters instead opted for their homemade organic root-marm. When asked about the poll Bush was quoted as saying, "Juan Valdez is a true patriot. Never forget 7-11... er I mean 911." The Kerry camp simply stated, "most young americans don't drink coffee, do you have any questions not related to coffee." Ralph Nader popular third party candidate had this to say. "Corporate America is pulling a fast one at the expense of the American consumer once again with cofee lids that could easily pop off scalding thousands, blinding hundreds."
The 7-11 poll only shows the popular vote. It would be nice if they broke it down to show electoral college votes -- you know the ones that matter.
you're bound to find some amazing coincidences.
Think of it another way. If you ask a million people if anything unusual happened today, one of them will tell you about an experience whose odds were a million to one.
Sorry, Weekly Reader. If vote suppression tactics fail in Florida, Ohio, and elsewhere, you just might be wrong.
Donate background CPU time to fight cancer.
I live in Atlanta, GA and we don't have '7 eleven' stores. When I lived in Tallahassee, FL we didn't have them, either. For some reason 7eleven just isn't available around here. QuikTrip is our local 'convenience store' (and personally I prefer it to 7eleven [which are very prevalent in my hometown - Melbourne, FL]).
Atlanta is a tiny little berg of only 7 Million people. When coupled with North Florida the total non-7eleven region is significantly more than 10 million people. Since the "electorally high-value" Southeast USA is apparantly insignificant, my money is on the candidate that defies the 7eleven results.
Polls are irrelevant and stupid. For that matter, so is the "electoral college". In Iraq they elect leaders based on popular vote, why don't we do the same here in the US? WTF is wrong with this country?!
Don't think that a small group of dedicated individuals can't change the world. It's the only thing that ever has.
For grins, I counted the number of United States that are in this poll. The number that I arrived at is: 31.
I guess I could understand if they only omitted Alaska(AK) and Hawaii(HI); however, they left out 38% of the United States! We have 50 states here!
Don't think that a small group of dedicated individuals can't change the world. It's the only thing that ever has.
This poll clearly shows the link between the attack of Sept. 11th and Iraq. The gasoline/petroleum oil used by 7eleven stores comes from Iraq. The name seven 11, clearly has an "eleven" in the title.
"This makes it clear that there IS a connection between Sept. 11th and Iraq" -
"My name is George W. Bush, and I approved this messidge."
Don't think that a small group of dedicated individuals can't change the world. It's the only thing that ever has.
All this poll proves is that kerry voters are far thristier than their Bush counterparts.
-sig removed for tax purposes-
I actually like Bengal brand coffee found at the local Exxon gas station. The beans are ground up fresh before being used. And as long-time coffee drinker, I can't tell the difference between Bengal and Starbuck with the exception that Starbuck offers the extra flavors and shit including the stores ambience that jacks up the price.
Why is it elitist snobs such as you look down on people that prefer a simple life? Some would argue that less is MORE in life. However, liberals look down on such philosophies with impunity and someone of small mindedness.
Life is not for the lazy.
Well of course John F'ing Kerry is going to win everytime in a poll conducted in FRANCE! The French like John Kerry. The French hate Bush. The French don't want to have their asses exposed in the U.N. oil for food scandal!
"The Washington Redskins have proved to be a time-tested election predictor. In the previous 15 elections, if the Washington Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party has lost the White House. When they have won, the incumbent has stayed in power."
More information here.
Kerry swept in the kids pick election. They have been right every time.
Who knows.
coincidences doesn't really work when you can use the coincidence to predict outcomes.
All it means it that the kids polled in the Weekly Reader are a remarkably accurate indicator of public sentiment.
RE: http://komar.org/halloween/2004/stats/bots/
/. storm had died down. It was at that point that I discovered that TOGGLING the vote to NO then back to YES causes a vote to actually register. Since your site had been linked from /., I initially assumed that the radio buttons would function as they do on /. polls. That is, I thought the one I was voting YES on would receive a vote, not the one I toggled. Even now, I am curious what the result would look like if one were to take *only* the very first form submission from each IP address, and count only the YES votes from that initial post.
Dear sir,
First and foremost, please accept my sincere apology. I would like to explain my unreasonable actions, and why I am surprised at your reaction. Additionally, I am flattered that you think I am *that* capable a hacker. I am also amused that you think I did what I did programmatically. I've waited until after the 11/2 deadline to pass (and things in general to quiet down) before offering my apology, to make sure you don't dismiss my sincerity.
When I first followed the link to your website, I was presented with your very amusing Hulk for President page. Thank you for your generosity to the world and humanity in general for your obviously non-trivial effort. Honestly, I admire your perseverance. You obviously spent an extraordinary amount of time, effort, money in planning and doing this. I am ashamed that I tarnished the experience for you.
Upon first seeing the page, I changed the "voting" selections to indicate the candidate I favor and clicked the submit button. Your server at that time was quite overwhelmed. After resubmitting several times, my vote posted. (After the first couple tries, I turned off image loading in hopes that my form submission would go through "faster.")
However, it was not my preferred candidate that received my vote. Instead, it was his opponent and the Hulk.
Curious, I checked to be certain that the form wasn't resetting incorrectly (Mozilla on Fedora Core 1) and therefore posting wrong.
With each retry, it seemed (odd coincidence perhaps) that no matter what I submitted, Hulk or opponent or both would register a "vote" but never my preferred candidate.
To me, it seemed like something was clearly amiss; I suspected there was one or more [opponent] bots blitzing the IP addresses most recently indicated at the top of the page (where you indicate other IP addresses that were attempting to vote) and somehow subverting my form submission.
During this first session, I also noticed that simply clicking on the Location: bar and hitting return would reset your 5 minute timer. I had initially assumed that that timer was a server-side limitation (as it probably is by now.)
I then assumed I had been the unwitting victim of some nefarious hacker, and unwittingly "helping" the opposing candidate.
After my two children were asleep in bed, I again returned (now quite curious) and noticed that the
Anyhow, I spent the next half hour or so trying to "make-up" for the incorrect earlier votes.
PLEASE NOTE:
I did not at any time write a "bot" - I merely clicked on your web page and refreshed the page as needed. Over the course of three or four hours of sometimes intermittent, sometimes continuous re-submission of forms. You said it was a total of 1,158 page loads? That would be between 9 and 12 seconds per page load on average? I recall it being more like 5 seconds most of the time - perhaps more of my time playing around was idle.
The next evening, and/or a few days later, I again revisited your Hulk page. On those occasions, I intended only to undo whatever damage (of unknown number) had been done by the initial multitude of miss-voting. As I was doing other things, I'd return to my idle web browser and re-toggle the voting selection. (As you saw, I let numerous errant votes slip through anyway, even then when I understood how yo