Space Weather Warning

SallyMac writes "The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a Space Weather Warning. On Friday, May 13th, NOAA detected a 'geomagnetic storm of extreme proportions'. From the article: 'This event registered a 9 on the K-Index, which measures the maximum deviation of the Earth's magnetic field in a given three-hour period...The scale ranges from 0 to 9, with 9 being the highest. This was a significant event.' See the article on the NOAA site for more information." Spaceweather.com has details on the resulting auroras.

Comments

Scientists.

[Boss, Pointy Haired]

Why couldn't they use a scale of 1 to 10 like EVERYBODY ELSE?

Re:Scientists.

[twostar]

because they like having more then two options.

Re:Scientists.

[Xypheri]

so what happens when it registers an A on the scale?
or F for that matter?

Re:Scientists.

[pv2b]

This one goes to 11.

Re:Scientists.

[shut_up_man]

Nigel: Because ours go to nine. See? The numbers all go to nine. Look...right across the board.
Marty: Ahh...oh, I see....
Nigel: Nine...nine...nine....
Marty: ..and most of these instruments go up to ten....
Nigel: Exactly.
Marty: Does that mean it's...safer? Is it any safer?
Nigel: Well, it's one safer, isn't it? It's not ten.

Re:Scientists.

[dutchd00d]

You mean "everybody else" as in the Richter scale (3.5-8)? Or the Beaufort scale (0-12)? Or the stellar magnitude scale (-3.5 - ~25)? Or the Fujita scale (F0-F5)?

Re:Scientists.

[osmic234]

Actually, it doesn't necessarily start at zero - it's a logarithmic scale so negative magnitudes are still meaningful, if not worth worrying about outside seismology research.

And as for 8 being the upper limit - one of the reasons that the Richter magnitude scale isn't actually used anymore is that it saturates at large magnitudes. In other words as earthquakes keep getting bigger, the richter scale doesn't really keep up - it under-reports the actual size. So an earthquake with a moment magnitude (see below) of 7.5 might have a comparable richter magnitude, but one with a moment magnitude of 8.5 or 9.0 might still only have a richter magnitude of 7.5 or 8.0.

Moment magnitudes are calculated from the area of fault surface that actually ruptures, how much it moves, and the rigidity of the surrounding rock. A fault can propagate over long horizontal distances (~1000 km in the Sumatran earthquake last year) but only down to a point where the crust is still rigid enough to crack. It's this factor that is the main control on upper earthquake size. Other wise the rupture could just keep spreading down. Then you could have stupidly large earthquakes like a magnitude 15 or 20 that would crack the earth in half. Well, not really.

Part of the reason is the the richter magnitude scale is a local magnitude - it's not actually giving the true energy release of an earthquake, but how bad it feels at some nearby point (corrected for distance). It's also a bit of a hold-over from the early days of seismology in California. When people started to realise that the are earthquakes outside California as well, the richter magnitude scheme fell out of favour.

Seismologists don't use the richter (local) magnitude scale anymore really. The reason it's still often reported in the news is that after alarge earthquake, reporters call up their local governmental Geological Survey for a size. If the seismologists then try to give the size in a modern, more accurate scale, the reporters tend to say "Moment magnitude? No one knows what that is - how big was it on the Richter scale?". So, even though it's generally out of date, it still manages to be somewhat self-perpuating.

Thanks for the warning.

[syynnapse]

I _would_ have taken the freeway home on friday had I known, but instead I got caught in this horrible weather while traveling through the upper atmosphere.
Way to have 20/20 hindsight NOAA.

So What's the Duration?

[virtigex]

I couldn't get from the article what the duration of disruption is. Anybody know?

Re:So What's the Duration?

[Durinthal]

About 60 hours, according to how long it took the story to get posted.

Shortwaves were dead

[dimss]

There was very poor shortwave propagation yesterday. Now I see why...

I need to find a new primary news source.

[Max Threshold]

Shit, man. If they knew about the flare on Friday, how come somebody didn't say something, oh, Saturday or something? I totally missed the auroras.

Is there a RSS feed where I can get this kind of news in a *timely* manner?

Re:I need to find a new primary news source.

[Anonymous Coward]

Sign up to the Spaceweather list at http://science.nasa.gov/news/subscribe.asp?checked =sw

Re:I need to find a new primary news source.

[drbill28]

You can also sign up for AuroraChasers. This will only give you a few minutes warning though. But it will tell you the exact Kp projection for your area. It's helpful if you want to see auroras.

Re:I need to find a new primary news source.

[Velox_SwiftFox]

Because they didn't have any idea that there was going to be an extreme geomagnetic storm on friday. On friday, there was just an ordinary M8 class flare on the sun. Nothing special, it didn't even seem to be aimed at the Earth, but for some strange reason a glob of solar spittle, carrying solar magnetic field with it, held together or constructively interfered with itself, and we got an extra dose of it.

Kind of like the tornado sirens that go off after the tornado has passed. This was less a warning than a report of something that already happened.

Re:I need to find a new primary news source.

[Bad D.N.A.]

Actually it was pretty clear that a CME was coming. When a CME is large enough and fast enough it will drive a shock and these shocks accelerate energetic particles. We have spacecraft that detect these particles well ahead of the approaching CME. It was very clear only a few hours after the flare that the CME (or part of it) was heading this way.

If you go to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/EPAM_7d.html

You can see the low energy ions (the lower panel) and the electrons (upper panel).
The initial burst of particles near the end of day 13 was followed by a steady increase in intensity that continued right up until the CME driven shock passed the spacecraft.

Great timing

[Stripsurge]

Two days ago something happened that could have caused some major problems. It didn't. Oh and be sure to catch the auroras yesterday. They sure were great. Thanks for the heads up ;)

Re:Great timing

[tehshen]

What's the opposite of news?

Slashdot

Some other useful links

[tqft]

Scroll down to Satellite Environment plot
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.html

there is also a plot which will update live
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/satenv.html

Re:Some other useful links

[Stripsurge]

This one has a nice map of where auroral activity is taking place and shows relative intensity.
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapN.html

Northen lights

[Brtchlin]

i guess that would explain the light show we saw up here in western canada tonight, very vibrant greens, blues, yellows violets and all dancing like mad. I wonder if anyone else in the world is getting them as well?

This could be as bad as

[doofer]

the 'perfect space storm' of 1859.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/23oct_supe rstorm.htm

Shouldn't affect the Internet

[Teddy_Roosevelt]

Possible impacts from such a geomagnetic storm include widespread power system voltage control problems; some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts.

Bah. What's the worst that could h...[NO CARRIER]

A Sunday Morning Report

[BRock97]

Hell, it would have been nice to know this in advance...

As it was, got out of work about 0800Z Sunday morning and as I was driving home, thought I saw the most bizarre clouds. When I pulled into the driveway, there were these flashes that moved from west to east in the night sky. Since I live next to a small airfield, I assumed it was the lights from there, but when I looked in that direction, they were turned off. So, drove about 20 minutes west of the big city (damn that light) and was treated to a show that words cannot describe. This being my first aurora event, I had didn't know what to expect. I sat and watched for 45 minutes as the sky literally danced. About 30 minutes in, the aurora moved to right above my head and turned into a completely different show with different bands shooting out above me.

To anyone who hasn't witnessed an aurora, take the time to travel someplace that you can view them. It is totally worth the trip.

Judging by the POES Auroral Activity graphic, things are firing up again. Damn my luck that thundershowers are moving in to cloud things up....

All Quiet...

[dj245]

All Quiet at the Deblois Wood Chip Power Plant. Not even a blip in the output voltage or vars over the past 12 hours.

Corrections

[zerbot]

What was observed on the 13th was solar flare activity. It doesn't become a geomagnetic storm until it reaches the earth, which it did on the 15th.

Is it really that hard to copy the right information out of sources?

well then

[ImaLamer]

What you need is Spaceweather PHONE from the folks at SpaceWeather.com

Here is the list of "Space Weather Alerts" they offer:

• Aurora warnings
  
• Geomagnetic storms
  
• X-class solar flares
  
• CMEs (coronal mass ejection) and solar wind gusts
  
• The Interplanetary Magnetic Field
  
• Solar radiation storms

They'll call you with alerts 48-hours in advance when possible. Pretty cool for $4.95/month. Anyone want to buy it for me as a gift?

just to be sure....

[zxnos]

...i want to be sure i have this right, on a scale that ranges from 0-9, 9 is the 'highest'? fascinating.

Re:Coincidence?

[Valcoramizer]

In other news, a black cat was spotted walking underneath an open ladder carrying a salt shaker. This so startled the man on the ladder that he dropped the mirror he was holding, shattering the mirror, and crushing the cat.

Wrong write-up

[Chran]

Noooo ... A solar flare occured Friday, leading to a forecast about the K-9 geomagnetic storm which occured yesterday. Thanks for reading the articles before posting to Slashdot. Woohoo!

Yes!

[ImaLamer]

There are pictures from around the world (although mainly the US and Canada) at Spaceweather.com

They have pictures from California, South Dakota, Kansas and Illinois. Actually, I now see two more pages of fantastic photos.

Re:Yes!

[BJH]

They have pictures from California, South Dakota, Kansas and Illinois.

"Around the world", eh? Spoken like a true American.

Re:Yes!

[grcumb]

" They have pictures from California, South Dakota, Kansas and Illinois. "

'"Around the world", eh? Spoken like a true American.'

You have to cut them a little slack. From where they stand, California and Kansas look like different planets. 8^)

Re:Yes!

[Kaydet81]

Actually the US does represent a fairly significant slice of the globe in both lattitude and longitude. Also when someone asks what's happening around the world it's pretty difficult to report on more than that with which one is familiar ... typically one would rely on someone in another true part of the world to report on what they know, to get the whole picture.

QuitYerBitchin

Re:Yes!

[Tophe]

Since 6 percent is insignificant, please forward me 6 percent of your salary. Thanks.

Now I get it!!!

[d474]

"This event registered a 9 on the K-Index..."

...So, a "0" on the "K" index means everything's gonna be "0K". I always wondered where that came from.

Re:Now I get it!!!

[dustmite]

That is most certainly not German, neither is the origin of the phrase "OK". Did you even read the link that you yourself posted? OK is an Americanism, originating in New York, and is a comical pronunciation of "All Correct". Now, a few people may dispute that explanation, but nobody thinks the origin is German. The first recorded occurrences of the word are all in the US.

Re:Now I get it!!!

[Tophe]

The Straight Dope claims the letters come from the phrase "Oll Korrect." The phrase comes from a curious fad for "comical abbreviations" that swept the country in the 1830s and 1840s. The estimable Oxford Dictionary concurs, while also noting that the term has several foreign equivalents: the Scots "och aye," the Greek "ola kala," the Choctaw Indian "Oke." http://ask.yahoo.com/ask/20050321.html

the weather of the past...

[bdigit]

is always alot more accurate once it has occured already. thanks slashdot for making sure we get the weather a few days after it has occured

Re:What does this mean for the little man?

[redJag]

Just to be safe, I'd keep your little man away from it.

Re:Why only NOAA? Why not international?

[GomezAdams]

You've unconvered the great cover up. George Bush and Congelisa Rice have told Chaney to get his pals at Haliburton to create this really, really, top secret Giant Magnetic Device that will fry everyone's brain in the Blue States to clear the way for a Red State migration. The only protection against this new terrible weapon is to wear tin foil under your hat, or if you can find one, a fine holed, metal colander. If the holes are too large then the micro sized Federal agents riding on the magnetic pulses will be able to get through to whisper evil thoughts in your ear and plant tiny alien creatures from Area 52 that will eat your brain. Since you are the one who made this discovery and was foolish enough to post it on the Internet, expect black helicoptors to find you.... Oh no. It's too late. They have you in their sights. Run, run. Run like the wind and don't look back.

3-Hour K-Index Charts

[trevdak]

I found an automatically generated graph here:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

Re:50's flashback.

[circusboy]

and while your at it, "Stop, Drop, and Roll!"

I wore protection!

[bokane]

Boy, good thing I was rockin' the tinfoil chapeau on Friday...

No Problem here

[DigiShaman]

Noppepeee. Noo probbbblleem he 20934 hehrr. I don0932t kn203w what yo.....u are all2342 talking about. THe99999-9re is 980980 da800ta corrupt232342ion you2234 Say0--0????

With apologies to Dr. Streetmentioner

[Stealth Potato]

Oh and be sure to catch the auroras yesterday.

Yeah, they're going to have been great. :-)

Your geekiness is revealed when...

[CrackedButter]

When you are the first to mention the word "Ion" and "Storm" and then using them to create a joke in relation to the news article.

Is this related to Earth's changing magnetic field

[goat_of_wisdom]

I've read that Earth's magnetic field is getting weaker and will soon reverse its polarity. I wonder if a weakening magnetic field is more susceptible to these kinds of solar flares. (i.e. a normal flare results in a larger perturbation of Earth's magnetic field.)

Re:What does this mean for the little man?

[some guy I know]

can someone tell me if I should be worried or not? What do I expect from this?

1. No.
2. An article about it on Slashdot that is about three days late.
   Oh, and some pretty pictures of aurorae posted on various web sites.
   Beyond that, not much.

So that explains why...

[FoXDie]

...my dead Grandpa started talking to me from my XM Satellite radio...

In case you are wondering...

Re:1 digit

[Fred_A]

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A B C D E F

There, that's more than 10 things counted with a single digit.

You must be new here :)

Re:Is this related to Earth's changing magnetic fi

[Anonymous Coward]

The polarity has, and does indeed reverse; however, 'soon' on the scale in which we speak of these events is on the same order as other geologic or paleolithic phenomena:

1000 years: Imminate
1M: Soon
100M: Long
250M+: Distant

While K-index values relate to maximum field purturbance, no, the solar ejectory matter was significantly above 'normal' (it was extreme), and this 9 K event was not an abbreancy related to the Earth's changing magnetic field.

I was unable to find a link but

[Senor_Programmer]

back in the 1800's there was a period of solar activity that was so extreme that aurora was seen in the Carribean and telegraph operators had to disconnect or reverse their batteries!

Cell Service?

[Huxley_Dunsany]

I'm located in southern Nevada, and I noticed that I was having terrible cell reception all day yesterday, and I don't think it was just me. I work in a large electronics store, and all day long (esp. in the afternoon), I overheard customers complaining that they were having dropped calls, or at least much more interference than usual. Would a storm like this have an effect on cell phone reception? I did notice at least one or two posts mentioning that short-wave radio was out yesterday...

Just a thought.

Huxley

Slashdot article in error

[laughing!oni]

Actually, the geomagnetic storm was detected on May 15th. The solar flare that caused the geomagnetic storm took place on May 13th. Someone should correct that slashdot article.

Re:First post?

[ccarson]

Apparently, the Earth magnetic field has decreased by 10% in the last 10 years. During my studies in electrical engineering sub-atomic physics, I learned that a particles velocity can be affected by magnetic fields. Based on Earths weakening magnetic field and the recent increase in solar intensity, I believe this may be one of the reasons causing global warming. If more radiation hits the Earth, shouldn't that also increase the overall temperature of the Earth due to particle scattering and can global warming be contributed to this? I've been bouncing this idea in my head for a while now and I can't see why this MAY not be true.

Solar Weather Data

[Hoi Polloi]

Here are some sources of realtime data:

X-ray Flux

Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Realtime ACE Observations

Explains strangeness..

[EvilStein]

my GPS has been *really* inaccurate in the past few days. It's also way off on the altitude. (Mountain View, CA is not at 2,800 feet)
Also my Sirius stuff has had more drop-offs than usual, even when the sky was clear outside.

Re:First post?

[notasheep]

Except that his notion is also backed by scientists world-wide. Yours is backed by you. Though, I'd love to see some links to articles that back up your proposition - always willing to learn something new.

Until then, I'll place my bet on the more established, and accepted, theory.