10 Failed Technology Trends of 2005
mikemuch writes "ExtremeTech's Loyd Case muses on ten trends of 2005 that never panned out. He points the finger at analysts like himself for waxing glowy-eyed at technologies like the BTX form factor and the 64-bit version of Windows XP. On DRM and the Sony rootkit fiasco: 'Hint to the music publishers: It's not going to work. There have been easy workarounds to every system that's been tried, and the more stringent the copy protection, the greater the risk of having angry customers who won't buy CDs. I suggest you start investigating new business models, as the old ones ride off into the sunset.'"
Take iTunes for instance. Wildly successful in the face of its predecessors and competitors. The RIAA doesn't like it because it undercuts their old business model (and these people have worked that one a long time to their great profit) Apple's frisky little model says, "give it to them on a flashy little toy and keep it cheap." CD sales plummet. (RIAA biz model sez: Any flattening of growth or dip in sales is due to piracy!) Reminds me of when Detroit, back in the 70's thought they could continue to do business as usual as those japanese cars started to sell particularly well ("after the price of oil drops again we'll go right back to 454 blown dual carb thingamajigs") Funny they repeated the same erroneous reasoning with 4WD's in the late 90's and into the next century and are now closing plants left and right.
High def video and audio. What's funny is people are fine with the crap we have now. Heck, there's people driving around town with self-installed audio systems in their cars which not only sound awful, but bring Lo-Fi to an all new low -- and they're actually happy with it.64 bit OS, only when you've got apps or a killer must-have game will 64 bit OS be all the rage, even drivers will follow. Until then, like hi-def video and hi-fi audio, it's only in the realm of those who really must have for practical or fashionable reasons.
Digital home: Right. When I was a kid we had this great intercom system that came with our new house, all rooms connected to one main spot, could pipe radio into any room or page anyone. That lasted about a month. After that it was mom shouting up the stairs that supper was ready, someone at the door, etc. Evolution of technology doesn't guarantee it will be any more necessary, but it looks flash and shiny if you've never seen before and might impress the uninitiated. Up to me, I'd worry more about noisy water pipes and insulation in the walls.
"it even comes with high definition squirrels in the attic!"
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
Here's the list:
• The BTX Form Factor
• High-Definition Video on the PC
• High Fidelity Digital Audio
• Windows XP Professional x64 Edition
• High Definition Optical Drives
• Copy Protection for Music CDs
• iPod Competitors Emerge
• The Digital Home
• Google's Gmail Service
• Dual Graphics Cards
I find it odd that Case complains about Gmail. He goes on about how hard
it is to add attachments - it's really not that hard.
And why does he bitch about it still being in Beta? Hell,
most of the stuff on Google STILL is in Beta. Besides,
invites are like a dime a dozen now (as I type this, I have
100 invites). But GMail being a "failed tech trend?". Hmph.
BTW, the article layout is disgusting - 11 pages!
My MythTV HowTo
One tech trend then will never fail:-
Vaporware
First off, the Gmail screen still reads "BETA." Will it ever not be beta? Who knows? That means that you still need to be invited to, uh, participate in the beta.
Alright, so it is still in beta. To most people (the author seems to forget this) this means that there are probably little bugs or issues with the service. It may have been in beta for quite awhile, which could mean that they are still working on bugs, but then again most geeks are quite fickle about release dates (The author of TFA even admits this when he discusses Windows x64). Next, he goes on to say:
Gmail is inconvenient in many ways. Managing a mailing list isn't trivial. Trying to send legitimate attachments with executable files is damn near impossible. Even ZIP files are a chore.
Wait a second...Didn't we just determine that Gmail is still in beta? Don't we all know that beta == issues? Alright, so we have a service that shouldn't be in beta, but that has issues. Gotcha. Perhaps the arguement should be that there aren't enough resources going into Gmail, then perhaps I would buy the arguement.
do.what.promptcmds
XP-64 is a failure? How so, because it's on on every desktop? It's not supposed to be. 64-bit at home is still in it's infancy. However that doesn't mean it's not desirable to have 64-bit OSes. At this point, the main point is for developers to be able to convert apps and drivers to 64-bit and get them well tested, ahead of widespread adoption.
However even for that they aren't useless to the end user. HFSS supports 64-bit XP and that's real useful if you want to solve really large problems.
I think it's a mistake to say a technology has to immediatly take off to be a success. Some things are introduced ahead of time, with the knowledge that it'll be a slow adoption process. Id' much rather have 64-bit Windows and Linux NOW when there's still only a few chips on the market than not for another 4 years when we all have the hardware but are starved for software that can use it as happened with 32-bit chips.
I don't see how lossless was meant to be mainstream or an explosive technology. It is generally for audiophiles, geeks, and nerds. Would they call Linux a failed technology? True it could be easy for producers to make portable players capable of playing FLAC or similar, however since when do they play to the minority? This is capitalism, and FLAC is not for the mainstream as most people can't tell the difference, or even care. Minorities rarely win in capitalism.
do.what.promptcmds
Spreading a rather thin article over a multitude of pages so we can be sure to see all the ads.
From TFA: Consumers don't want multiple standards. DVD was successful because there was only one standard.
One standard? What about +R, -R, DVDRAM etc? Manufacturers love competing standards. They get to sell to early adopters, then sell another unit with identical functions to the poor sods who jumped on to the wrong standard.
"I've got more toys than Teruhisa Kitahara."
He makes a jab at the iPod by talking about how larger capacity players add video capability, while ignoring fidelity by not offering lossless. While it isn't the longer-running FLAC format, the iPod does support Apple Lossless, which is just an extension of the standard MPEG4 Lossless Audio format. It works great, and my iPod Video certainly doesn't have a problem playing those as well. :P
- oZ
// i am here.
As it turns out, driver availability has been the main Achilles' heel. While graphics cards, chipsets, and audio drivers have been readily available, drivers for newer printers, webcams, and other common peripherals have been MIA.
I bought a laptop with a Turion64 processor and secured a copy of XP64 Pro from my work (the surprised tech had to dig in his desk for it). I got it up and running, but....
No drivers. No trackpad driver, no video driver, no sound, nada. Not even on the manufacturer's site.
Well, good thing Ubuntu64 works just fine.
I'd rather have someone respond than be modded up.
this year it became possible for independent film makers to make high quality 16:9 films for the first time... economically
yes, the sony hdr-fx1 and jvc's offering came out in 2004/ 2003, but dual core became economical this year (really necessary for the editting environment and importing the mpeg stream) and sony introduced it's low cost cmos hdv camcorder
i'm talking economical in something a middle class high school kid could set up with a little help from his parents and some after school jobs: under $5K
that really means something for 2005
the author gripes about hdv content distribution and the big cable and studio players wary of rights management, but that's not really where the story is in hdv: it's in creation
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
but your example is flawed. CD sales have not plummeted. While total sales are down slightly, labels have axed their research/product development, and numbers of artists. Their sales per release are up, and their profits are way up. Digital downloads are currently a drop in the bucket. People with iPods generally still buy CDs. They are filling up their iPods the same way we filled up their glove boxes with mix tapes in the 80s: by copying our CDs, and our friends' CDs. Except that, thanks to P2P, we all have a lot more friends to share with.
I have to say I'm glad to see BTX on this list. It seems like it was developed soley to make up for the stupid amounts of heat generated by the P4, with no regard for making anything else better than ATX. How about standardizing all those case connectors into one block of plugs, or consolidating the 3 power connectors I have to hook to my motherboard. If I'm going to switch form factors, I want these obvious things taken into account.
Non gratis rodentus anus
- The BTX Form Factor
...maybe on the MacIntosh New Year in two weeks
I'm writing this on a powermac now with the same sort of cooling system...
- High-Definition Video on the PC
this one looks like it's only delayed... the content is now showing up on iTunes... and since it looks like it's going to be very successful, it's only
a matter of time before they offer HD too.
- Windows XP Professional x64 Edition
Tiger has been a huge success. (it's 64-bit)
- iPod Competitors Emerge
What's so wrong with the iPod that they're wishing for competitors. None of the competitors really care about mac users, so why should I care about their products? And why do we want WMV to win the DRM battle? And why is the iPod entry level?
ExtremeTech my ass. more like WhatTheGuysWorkingAtBestBuyThinkIsExtremeTech
Shit I wanna see the Mac user list of top ten disappointments....
10. Market share still sucks
9. iPod still can't do bluetooth
8. Market share is what 3% or something now
7. Turns out the G5 wasn't a supercomputer on a chip
6. No Civ IV
5. Have to wait more than 3 months for 10.5
4. Mac mini turned out not do have anything to do with Tivo
3. Damn, that market share sucks
2. OS X still can't read minds
1. Fucking market share
There are 10 types of people in this world, those who can count in binary and those who can't.
Here is a link to the print version of the article, less clicks and only one ad! http://www.extremetech.com/print_article2/0,1217,a =168194,00.asp
The N-Gage was a complete failure, and is in fact a joke among gamers. For instance, on the gamefaqs board you can insult someone's intelligence by saying "You bought an N-Gage didn't you?" Recently there was a topic posted on the boards whose title was "I...got...an...NGAGE...for...Christmas". The topic got over 250 responses (most topics don't get more than 20) nearly all of which were other users who wrote "LOL" or some form of condolense.
1 1198
http://biz.gamedaily.com/features.asp?article_id=
BTX form factor? didn't it just come out? it's a good form factor, but in this age of reusing old and outdated inventories to keep the prices down it'll take a year or two for BTX to be accepted. (just like not all cars have side-impact airbags...)
HD video for PC? I'm on a mac, with broadband, so I enjoy HD trailers all the time. Works on PCs too. The problem is not in HD or PCs, the problem is in the low DVD resolution. Once HighDef video discs come about it'll be better. (720p pr0n torrents are pretty popular)
HD optical drives? they haven't even started selling them. WTF?
GMail? sure, it doesn't give you a BJ every time a new message comes in, but otherwise it's pretty nice. (Quick & Dirty)
Dual Grapics Cards? most macs can support 2 displays on the existing card. Windows users can't seem to think that browser tabs are a good thing, why would they want dual displays? (Sure, 2 graphics cards can still work on a single display and share the load, but people who need that, apart from gamers, already have Macs...)
Anyway, I'm not trolling, it's just not a very well thought out list.
If you don't know what AltaVista is (was), get off my lawn.
I get so tired of people who quote "Sturgeon's Law" as if it meant something.
Hear, hear. 90% of Sturgeon's Law is crap.
Writing "beta" on something doesn't make it a beta test version. The term "beta test" has a pretty specific meaning in software development, though sadly few people remember what it is and why it's important these days.
If you release a piece of software to the general public and charge for it (as in Microsoft) then it's not a beta, it's a product. If you advertise a web service widely and get loads of people to use it routinely (as in Google) then it's not a beta, it's a live service.
The use of "beta" on everything, even things you're treating as a real product in all other respects, is just the latest meaningless buzzword, and a pathetic attempt to avoid taking responsibility for the quality of your product or service. It will sting Microsoft and Google alike soon enough, as neither customer opinion nor (if applicable) commercial partners or courts ruling on disagreements will give it much weight.
If you disagree, post your argument. (-1, Overrated) isn't your personal censorship tool for views you don't like.
SCO
'Nuff said.
Gmail a failed tech trend? What? As far as I can tell it's been wildly successful. Everyone I know who uses it, has been slowly moving all their email capabilities to it. For the past few months I've been forwarding all my email from all my various accounts to my Gmail account. I haven't opened Outlook Express in a couple months. Sure, it takes a little while to get used to Gmail, but I found that the more I used it, the more intuitive it was as an email service. The labeling is far better than the directory/folder paradigms from other email systems. I prefer it's filtering structure. The search functionality is the best I've come across (which you'd expect from Google). So, Gmail a failed tech trend? I think not. Hell, Gmail sort of launched the new AJAX (Asynchronous Javascript and XML) tech trend (or if you want to argue over the semantics of "launched", at least brought AJAX into the forefront of web development). Besides, how can any email service be considered a trend?
Sign me up!
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
The article is full of hype driven and M$ friendly contradictions. He claims to use FLAC and says that nothing else will do for him. Me wonders where he gets better than CD quality Audio. Two pages later he recommends formats for the hoy-palloy:
To be fair, Microsoft's WMA standard has a lot going for it. The audio quality of WMA files is generally pretty good, and the DRM can be pretty flexible.
Sure. Windoze is good enough for you, so suck it and that DRM up. Like that's advice I want.
You will both have to excuse me while I avoid all of that BS by running Debian from ARM to 64bit and beyond. OGG too can be lossless, but I can't tell the difference and don't bother. Apple is beautiful and works, but my freedom is more important to me.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
Great insight? If so, I don't get it. I'd guess neither did the mods.
Windows XP x64 is a gigantic failure. Where are the masses of 64-bit apps? What about drivers? Sorry, they are pitiful and few.
As it stands, I can't even get 64-bit drivers for half of the devices on my Athlon64 notebook, despite it being sold to me as "64-bit ready" by HP. Hell, half of the drivers for 32-bit Windows haven't been updated for over 1.5 years (my mistake for buying HP, won't do it again!).
The average desktop user doesn't need 64-bits. Maybe when software becomes so bloated that the minimum reccomended RAM for a PC is 10GB it will catch on. Otherwise, it was premature. Hell, Intel still makes processors that are only 32-bit.
Black Invention Myths
This guy mentions twice in the article that he's a big fan of losless audio compression. That's all the proof I need that he's a hype-driven goofball who really has no clue.
I've been a musician for over 20 years. I can easily hear the difference between single coil and humbucking pickups, and between a fuzz pedal that uses germanium trasistors and one that uses silicon. Those are subtle differences that the vast majority of people can't hear. What I can't hear is the difference between a properly done 192kbps/44khz mp3 rip and one made with FLAC. Now, I'm not saying that means that no one on earth can. I'm sure there are golden-eared freaks out there. But I would seriously crap out a brick if this dillhole Case could.
And before you let me know what a moron I am, be sure to conduct a blind A/B test yourself. It has to be blind, or it's just not scientific. Have a friend play two different versions for you, one a high quality mp3, and one FLAC, and see if you can tell. Since the odds of guessing correctly are 50/50, you need to repeat the experiment several times to be sure that you weren't just lucky. I'm here to tell you, it's a rare, rare person who can choose correctly ten times in a row.
And yet this guy is surprised that hardware makers haven't put these lossless codecs into their players? Most people are happy with FM audio quality, let alone FLAC. Case is useless, as proven by the fact that he hyped so many technologies that went nowhere. Extremetech, indeed - extremely stupid.
The biggest reason I use GMail...well, 2 reasons...and they're pretty big...
... Google's search became popular while it was still in beta...it doesn't really mean much that GMail is still in beta...I'll pull a page from this guys book... "How many of you were using FireFox as your primary browser before it hit 1.0? Raise your hand..."
1) They let me use POP3...I know fastmail.fm does too, but they make you go in and delete spam through their web interface....and not to mention they don't give as much storage space...
2) Gmail Filesystem...
There are of course other benefits to GMail over other "free" e-mail services...Spam protection, Virus protection, they let you forward messages for other addresses through their service, etc...
As far as it being Beta
Then again this is exactly the reason why GMail is still in beta...Google is smart about making sure things work before they take them out of beta...
because they haven't figured out step #2.
1. Give away huge free email accounts and make it hard for anybody to permanently erase their e-mail. As a bonus use an invitation-only model to attract the geekiest nerds out there.
2. ???
3. Profit!
Clear, Dark Skies
This retard seems to think that 64-bit computing will arrive when windows supports it. I've been doing real work on 64 bit platform for 4 years.
Windows is backwards. So is the columnist.
How's this:
:P
10.3 : Finder kept and displayed Classic MacOS icons. Old photoshop files? 32x32 preview icons, scaled up. Looked like ass but they were there.
10.4 (WITH SPOTLIGHT!!!1oneoneomfg) : Finder not only ignores Classic MacOS icons for images, it now builds new previes for these images regardless of rather or not they have a classic macos preview icon or not. If the document is a few megs, no problem. If it's more than ten, you get some grind - you get a LOT of grind if it's fifty or more megs, while finder/spotlight shits its pants trying to get an idea of what it's looking at. Not only does this preview-building take for-frigging-ever, Finder DOES NOT CACHE THE RESULT . So every time you roll over that image in column view, grind, grind, grind, GRIND, GRIND...
The end result is that column view is now vastly less useful in 10.4. Go Apple.
Yeah, you might care fuckall, but some of us own macs specifically for how the graphics apps handle... and I really do not have the time or patience to reprocess seven years (100+ gigs) of Photoshop documents just to see what I'm fucking LOOKING AT in a modern OS when I had no problems to speak of last year.
It's an issue. We're gaining features and losing functionality. Verily, I am irritated.
I can tell the difference between the two easily. Cymbals particluarly will warble and shimmer - you can hear the resolution of the limited audio bands in the top end. Bass response of mp3 at any rate is always bad, careful A/Bing should show that. Having said that I archive non-important stuff at 224kbps AAC and can detect practically no audible difference between that and master (perhaps something in the bass-end but hardly anything). Mp3 is just not as good as AAC anyway. Of course iPods can play lossless audio (ALE) with no problems. The article misrepresented the difference between audio compression and digital compression. This seems to be a hard concept for people to grasp and the author doesn't seem to either. Clue: audio compression affects the dynamics (squashing all the ampliudes to the same kind of level), digital compression reencodes the signal into freq bands but doesn't (usually) affect the dynamic range. 16bits is completely adequate for a master recording and no real difference can be noted at 24bit in any normal listening environment. What would be good though is a higher sampling rate like 96KHz. People would notice that. On 96KHz systems the filtering can be soft slowly tapering down to nothing to prevent aliasing. At 44.1KHz a 'brickwall' filter has to be used which tends to produce a constrained sound.
spoonerize "magic trackpad"
Did you do the test?
.wav and .mp3 consistently at 256 KBps CBR (encoded with LAME). Cymbals started to sound "swishy" -- they start to pick up unpleasant patterns.
.wav and MP3 at a lower bitrate (but I don't remember the precise results, and in any case, that wasn't a double-blind test).
A double-blind test, yes (A friend ran a program that randomly played a clip, then I called out what I thought, and then he told me what it was). I had decent headphones, but nothing amazing from an audiophile standpoint (about $70, Radio Shack, closed circumaural), and I'm certainly no musician. The test clip I was using had drums and cymbals. I could tell the difference between
With Vorbis, I could tell the difference all the way up to the maximum quality setting (to my surprise). With Vorbis, cymbals didn't sound different (to my ear, at least), but percussion sounds slightly different -- a little bit flatter, maybe.
I still preferred Vorbis, because the MP3 artifacts sounded *unpleasant* -- swishy cymbals sound bad -- but Vorbis's artifacts don't.
Note that I was using CBR with LAME (because at the time I was interested in CBR results), though that isn't what I'd use in real life.
When listening on my little computer multimedia speakers (about $25) I've found that I can't distinguish between
Note that this was two years or so ago, and both encoders may have improved since then.
Any program relying on (nontrivial) preemptive multithreading will be buggy.
Now that's something that should definately be on the list. Remember all those articles how the cell was going to be the biggest competitior for PCs and how we were going to have cell processors in everything and link them and do all sorts of cool and weird things? Well, suddenly, nobody talks about it anymore...
"People's problem is not that they are mortal, but that they are suddenly mortal" Terry Pratchett