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Will Hybrid Players End the Format War?
flyhalf writes "A new report says that hybrid players will force an early end to the HD DVD/Blu-ray format wars. Some of the projections seem optimistic: $200 hybrid players by 2009 and several manufacturers cranking them out. But reality will likely be different: 'standalone units of any format aren't selling terribly well. Recent research determined that 695,000 consumers owned either a Blu-ray or HD DVD player, but most of those are tied to a console — 400,000 of the 425,000 Blu-ray players sold by the end of 2007 were PlayStation 3s and 150,000 of the 270,000 HD DVD players were Xbox 360 add-ons.' Most importantly, consumers aren't early adopters: 'DVD players needed over a decade to supersede the VCR in the living rooms of the United States and there is little reason to believe that HD DVD and Blu-ray player adoption will outpace that of the DVD.'"
Yeah, Sony has 400k+ blue-ray players available in the US in the form of PS3's at this point, all right; but first, not all of those have been sold...
And second, Sony totally blew it when they built the PS3 Blue-Ray capabilities; it can't play 720p, only 480p or 1080p, which means that a very large proportion of in-place US HDTV sets couldn't use anything but 480p, which is pretty much the same as a progressive scan standard DVD in terms of resolution. Oddly, the PS3 will do 720p for games. Just not for DVDs.
The reason that 720p is important is because for the LCD market, 1080p sets were rare until very recently. 720p was the top 'P' resolution available (it's actually the "middle" resolution in standard HDTV, 1080, 720, 480) though there are some uncommon ones and some variants, like 24 FPS stuff for 1:1 movie compatibility, and some TVs could scale 1080i down to 720p, or even display 1080i, just not 1080p.
Third, Sony's balking at allowing prawn into the format (like they did for betamax), which is (IMHO) likely to deal them another severe blow. It seems like they have developed an unmatchable expertise at shooting themselves in the foot.
I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
Why does everyone think people will rush out to buy players when there are only a handful of HD *movies* out on the market?
...is still a turd. All you can do is knock the rough edges off of it. A dual format player will decide nothing. Just a different brand/type of toilet paper.
"This is America... where the will of the few outweigh the outrage of the many..." - Unknown
DVD players needed over a decade to supersede the VCR in the living rooms of the United States and there is little reason to believe that HD DVD and Blu-ray player adoption will outpace that of the DVD.'"
After the key break on Blu-Ray.. I followed a link in the discussion to see what titles were out and had keys listed. For the most part, the list was short and contained movies over a decade old.
It looks like the studios are just testing the waters and not yet dedicated to the format. Consumers are the same. Waiting to see what will happen. DVD's were the same except DVD's were for Movies first and data second. I think this format will deploy in the reverse as a data medium for console games, and slowly the movies will follow.
The truth shall set you free!
Yes, for me, hybrid players will end the format war...
Oh, yeah, and a player price under $150.
When my current vcrs die I won't be replacing them. Between video capture devices and tuner cards I really don't need them anymore. Once I get all the hard-to-find stuff digitized I can sell my hundreds of tapes (for 10 bucks total probably) Besides, I mostly used them to record TV shows. It's easier to dvr it or download it.
I'd say the typical consumer didn't record anything on their vcr. The joke about flashing 12:00 has some basis in truth.
Man, you really need that seminar!
The vast majority of people (in North America at least) are completely indifferent to this format war.
People with HDTV represent a fairly smallish chunk of the population. The most of the rest of us neither have, nor are we looking to buy, HDTV. It's an expensive migration path with little perceived benefit for many people and very little in actual programming to use it -- most of what I watch isn't available in HD, and I wouldn't watch "Everybody Loves Raymond" in any definition.
The ones who know how fraught with peril the technology is, are staying away -- that whole HDMI DRM debacle, not working with older sets, and whatnot conspire to make this stuff a bit of a joke at the moment. Most people I know own a plain old TV, in about the 20" range. And, most of them are very unlikely to care about HD unless it becomes exceedingly cheap and compelling to do so. For most people, a full HD set is just way too expensive to considedr.
I'm sure the format war will sort itsself out, and it will be a good thing for the small amount of people with the displays to use this stuff. But, in the mean time, I bet a lot of people really could care less about this particular format war.
Don't forget, DVD was a huge improvement over VHS, and it was compatible with existing displays. The next gen of DVD isn't.
Cheers
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
I'd not want to buy anything from Sony and I'd not buy anything from MS. This is right! Another more serious point is that I want a player to play BOTH formats because otherwise I might end up with a player for a unpopular format. For now I'll just wait though.
+1 Agree -1 Disagree
Player manufactures will have to license and pay for both formats, passing the costs to consumers. The disks themselves will be most costly as well.
Why should I pay for 2 formats when I need just one? I'll wait until a free and dominant format emerges, perhaps from China, and buy a player then, if at all.
Until then, thepiratebay.org perhaps can fill the void.
But hybrid players will reduce the carbon emissions of traditional players.
In fact, I predict we will look back on the age of gasoline-powered DVD players and laugh.
why would I want to see a crappy movie really well? Maybe I'm just getting old, but there hasn't been much lately that has made me want to go to the movie theaters. I could be wrong, but even the latest epics (LOTR, and Potter) aren't available in High Def.
The content people want to see in the new format will drive the market. While there are 7 movies available, people aren't going to pony up $100 per movie for a player.
Frankly the format will go nowhere until Ishtar is available on it...
Sheldon
Why does everyone think people will rush out to buy players when there are only a handful of HD *movies* out on the market?
Because they think we are all sheep who will do whatever we are told to do by our corporate masters?
- None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
Sony shipped one million PS3s in the year 2006 alone. Source:
That's at least one million Blu-Ray players in the USA. I have a PS3 and I watch Blu-Ray more than I play games thanks to NetFlix's Blu-Ray inventory.
From the article:
Recent research determined that 695,000 consumers owned either a Blu-ray or HD DVD player, but most of those are tied to a console--400,000 of the 425,000 Blu-ray players sold by the end of 2007 were PlayStation 3s and 150,000 of the 270,000 HD DVD players were Xbox 360 add-ons.
25,000 people bought standalone BluRay players.
120,000 people bought standalone HD-DVD players.
I think the peeps have spoken and shown that if Sony wasn't bundling BluRay in with PS3s that almost nobody would be getting one.
Keep in mind too that all 150,000 people who bought add on HD-DVD players made an optional decision to buy that drive. 400,000 people who bought PS3s got a BluRay drive because you can't get a PS3 without one.
HD-DVD is winning the "format war" and it's only the PS3 that is so far making BluRay appear to even be in the race. I'd love to see disc sale comparisons because that will give a truer indication of who is in the lead than player numbers. It's a reasonable assumption that everyone who has an HD-DVD player is buying discs for it because the decision to buy that player was 100% optional and it's also a reasonable assumption that many people own the PS3 and don't have a single BluRay disc.
Plus, we've reached a place where the average person has DVD collections - they didn't so much for VHS tapes. Nobody ever bought season box sets of tapes en masse before DVDs, now they're suddenly saying "buy them again!"?
ADVENTURERS! - ANTIHERO FOR HIRE - CARDMASTER CONFLICT
Or is anyone having a hard time getting all excited about this debate? It's like they're not playing nice together solely to drag up media attention ... oh ... wait ... I see what they're doing :-)
Crap + Higher Resolution == Shinier Crap.
Only a small niche of humanity actually require fancy technology to be entertained. Remember that people used to see "live performances", and later on "black and white" programs on the over-the-air TV, etc...
The sooner they realize this the better. Maybe then they can focus more on script and acting lessons and less on CGI and camera resolution.
tom
Someday, I'll have a real sig.
Still, this war is going to be long and hard-fought. Ultimatley, both camps will lose to online video content delivery. And, just like for audio, online content will be of lower quality than the one on optical disks of various kinds; and still it would be the winner. MP3, AAC, WMA are all lossy compression format which are lower in sound quality than CD (let alone DVD-Audio, SACD etc.) but they are winning more than anything because of the content delivery innovation and content mobility.
There will be one saving grace for HD-DVD and Blu-ray though and I think that will be computers and gamers use. This format will be more popular for people to back up their data on due to their larger size. It will also work well for releasing games for consoles with amazing amount of data to create more real-world-like experience.
Osho
Oops, not sure what happened. Here's the source:
= 22051
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid
We recorded, and still do record lots of stuff with the VCR. But we don't keep any of it. The tapes are too bulky and too expensive to bother. But if you have a SageTV box, with a 300 GB HD and a DVD burner, it becomes a lot easier to keep the material you are recording.
Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
I'm a Slashdot nerd and I haven't heard any compelling reasons why I should upgrade to a HD DVD or Blu-Ray.
Hell, I've barely heard any mention of them outside of Slashdot.
I would imagine Joe Average has barely even heard of them.
That could be part of the reason behind the slow sales.
The libertarian solution to the failures of capitalism is to apply more capitalism til the failures are fixed.
dual players will only prolong it.
the pr0n industry settled on hd-dvd. the war is over.
Much as I like DVD, neither a Blu-Ray nor an HD-DVD player has got me excited enough to get on board. What I'm waiting for is a good HD recorder on some removable format. That'll be enough to get me into the fray. Without it, I can sit back and wait. I was hoping someone would get one out this year.
I have personally recorded more TV than about anyone (my tape library is something like 20k volumes- I've been at it a while). Come up with a good HD recorder and I'll buy several of them. I doubt I'm the only one.
ab
He's actually right. Who's to say that the next storage medium will even be a disc? Consumers think longer run than marketing departments expect them too.
Raise your hand if you bought a player because it plays both SACD and DVD-Audio... Um hmmm.
:(
The first problem is the amount of titles. I don't doubt that there'll be more compelling titles coming out faster for both HD formats combined. But I subscribe to the theory that combo-players will prolong the eventuality or even kill the chances that one day one format will win. It sort of gives both sides an excuse to continue releasing titles in their format.
So why should consumers care? Maybe they shouldn't if combo players become prolific. But I don't think they really help out the economies of scale thingymatheory, because there will continue to be two HD disc formats. Meaning two types of factories making these discs instead of all plants pressing one type of disc.
Then again, maybe one day I won't be able to resist diving in when the number of titles grow.
Buying a duel format player would just be a waste of money. Afterall, the real winner of the format war is going to be media-less digital delivery. With respect to movies and TV shows, there's nothing wrong with the current DVD format. So both HD-DVD and Blu Ray are going to be losers as far as the living room is concerned. I think there's a good chance that HD-DVD will be adopted by computer users for storage and PC games, while Blu Ray will live on for PS3 games. The only reason I don't think Blu Ray will make it on PCs is just the hunch that Sony will make it too expensive and restrictive, in part to protect PS3 games from piracy.
To the making of books there is no end, so let's get started
When the writers players still cost between $300 and $1000...
I have a pair of DVD recorders, they work Ok. my favorite though is a Linux box with a pair of A180 ATSC/QAM tuner cards in it. I can tune lots of the digital and HD channels on Cable and record them, something that is impossible on a DVD recorder and most PVR's (I know tivo Series3)
Add in a PVR-500 and now you have 2 atsc for HD and 2 ntsc for everything else. Compresses to mpeg4 for low bandwidth and Everything plays on my kids iriver and the mediaportal PC on the big screen TV.
works great, can skip commercials, better than a Tivo because the video is portable.. I can give a DVD with a few shows on it to a friend easily.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
Why does the "took 10 years to replace the VCR" argument keep coming up. Last time I checked, a DVD player could not play VHS tapes. That's why is took so long to replace the VCR. The new HD-DVD and BD-DVD players support the old DVD format, so what's the big deal?
Remembering your name in the morning is already a good start...
Is was my understanding that Sony won't license blu-ray to anyone making a dual-format player. I'm not sure if HD-DVD is the same, not that it makes any difference. I assume there's currently no legal way to manufacture blu-ray without a license. Of course, I suspect companies aren't supposed to make region-free players, but they still do...
I agree with the post to an extent; I only brought a DVD-RW drive when I could get one that did plus, minus and ram formats in one unit, and cost less than $80, and could be made region-free.
My criteria in this situation are similar: Either a decisive winner or a dual format drive, costing less than $80. I'm guessing I'm not one of those 'early adopters' I've heard so much about.
"Goodness me, how unlike the FBI to abuse the trust of the American public." -- The Onion
The format war isn't over until there is one format.
And I still won't buy it.
I'm not certain why this is hard for a lot of tech sites, as well as the companies that pushed these technologies, to figure out. The reason the DVD is widely accepted now is because it offered a multitude of benefits over VHS:
1) Larger storage capacity
2) Instant skipping
3) Smaller
4) More durable
5) Cheaper to produce
6) Higher quality
7) Longer lasting
The only thing that HD/BR have over DVD is an even larger storage capacity and higher quality, the latter of which most consumers can't even make use of right now. They keep all the problems that DVD had, such as possibility of scratching and moving parts. The only reason they were pushed out was to sell more HDTVs, as well as to give movie companies better DRM.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: HD/BR are just bumps in the road. The next turning point in terms of mass media storage will be flash memory.
Something the size of a mini-DVD (think Gamecube games), but likely squarish (like a floppy). It will have the internal flash memory inside a thin-but-durable plastic shell. Small pins slightly inset on one side are what transfers the data.
A storage system like this will be cheap, modular (only need a certain capacity? Save money and just buy that capacity), and durable. From there, it's just a matter of choosing a compression format for films to make standard. The lack of moving parts (aside from what is used to eject it/hold it in place) will make for less failures.
All that's needed for this to happen is for the companies to toss BR/HD to the wayside, come up with a good format standard across ALL studios, and then wait for the price of flash memory to drop more.
http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/
From the looks of things it is extremely close, Blu Ray is coming on strong recently.
I think the problem for new technology is overcoming the hill of an established format. In the case of CDs, this was pretty simple. The quality improvement from tape to CD was dramatic and reached the level of what consumers expected. DVD did this too, being much higher quality than VHS and more portable (the latter is one reason LD never reached critical mass).
What it comes down to is: what does the consumer want and expect? Moving everyone from VHS to DVD took some time and that was making a change to a much higher quality and compact format (you cannot put 50 VHS tapes in a little wallet storage case). Nor can you jump to chapter marks on a VHS - more added functionality that people wanted. Also, the picture and sound quality was something you could enjoy without upgrading the other parts of your entertainment system. In the case of Blu-ray and HD-DVD, the high quality has extra costs. The television and players required to get the full effect are much more expensive.
I wonder if the next format should not be based on discs, but more like flash drives with your movie. The great part about that would be plugging it into your "home entertainment hard drive" and installing the movie for future viewings. I love the idea of having all my films on a hard drive array, though it would be bad news for companies that make shelving. Of course, then some sort of offsite backup service will become important (if not mandatory).
Andrew Borntreger
Champion of cinematic disasters
In another 2 years, (I think) that there'll be a better format than both current 'standards' out. It'll be cheaper and have a greater capacity than either of BluRay OR HD DVD. And it'll probably be introduced by the computer manufacturers like Acer or Asus or something. Many people are taking the wait-and-see approach until there's a clear winner in the HiDef wars, but I believe that there's something better and cheaper coming along soon. It's still in the Lab of course!
"Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life." Terry Pratchet
The problem with HD-DVD/Blu-Ray is that regular DVDs are pretty good as they are - unless you're nose is up to the screen, the picture is still pretty damn good. When you're sitting back on your couch (as most movie watchers prefer to do), will the extra pixels really matter? What if you don't have perfect eyesight? Is an infinitely clearer picture really going to matter? Add to that the fact that people are learning the 'wait and see' strategy...new formats or content delivery methods will be out before HD discs really ever take over the media market. HD discs for movies are DOA.
Formats are irrelevant.
Digital delivery is already here. (I downloaded my first HD movie on my 360 over the weekend).
As I see it "on-demand" HD digital delivery is going to make this "format war" seem primitive.
The entire concept of digital media burned into plastic already feels last-gen.
Now as soon as someone figures out how to permanently save those digitally delivered
HD movie 'rentals' onto external drives -- then things are really going to get crazy.
------ The best brain training is now totally free : )
I think digital downloads will replace physical ownership of discs. It will be a few years before high definition televisions become mainstream affordable. Many people are still using dial up, but how many of them can afford a high definition plasma screen. A few people with high incomes who live in an area without high speed access may be screwed by this, but I think they are far and few between. Portable players will be much better served by a digital download to their hard drive or (more likely) flash memory.
The high definition television downloads through the Itunes service and the Xbox 360 seem to be quite popular. I think we will soon see free downloads supported by ads within the content brought to the customer with torrents.
My guess is the following schedule:
first day: movie theatre release/network television debut
three months: direct download for payment
one year: torrent based delivery with advertisement for free (you download a television show with advertisements).
Walmart will continue to sell DVDs until the number of people who can't download content is small enough to make it unprofitable.
Sure the content industry wants the new disc standards for "unbreakable" copy protection, but I think they'll realize that downloads would make more sense.
Hybrid players are a nice idea but the format war will continue until one dominates in the long term because it will be cheaper for all involved, and there are pretty significant differences in the two formats, unlike the DVD +/- R/W fight. The unasked question is whether the end of the format war will boost sales? No. A lot of my friends got dvd playback for free when they both their PS2s. The PS2 cost 200 bucks a year after launch. That won't be happening anytime soon with any next gen player. The dvd worked with existing TVs. Based on price alone, I cannot buy a PS3 even, let alone a HDTV - especially since the cheapo Westinghouse ones I could have afforded on my grad student stipend apparently don't work so well with the PS3 as it is. Then theres getting a HDCP compliant audio system next (something that people seem to forget about). Then there is the total dislike of HDCP to begin with. And my feeling that DVDs are good enough after I saw this comparison http://www.cornbread.org/FOTRCompare/index.html and figured I'd not really notice any difference without a good HDTV. Oh and then there is entire piracy thing, which IMHO will only get worse as we start to have PCs connected to the internet as "Media Centers."
Reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.
Your post advocates a
( ) technical ( ) legislative (X) market-based ( ) vigilante
approach to ending the format war. Your idea will not work. Here is why it won't work. (One or more of the following may apply to your particular idea, and it may have other flaws which used to vary from state to state before a bad federal law was passed.)
(x) Blu-Ray doesn't want to allow dual format players
(x) Nobody cares because either format is only an incremental improvement over DVD
( ) Remember Beta vs. VHS?
(x) DVD-R and DVD+R isn't a valid comparison
( ) Either way, there is too much DRM
( ) There is already a workaround for AACS
( ) Users of will not put up with it
( ) Microsoft will not put up with it
( ) The police will not put up with it
( ) Requires too much cooperation from consortiums
( ) Requires immediate total cooperation from everybody at once
( ) Many people don't even have HDTV anyway so there isn't enough consumer influence
(X) Sony doesn't care about anyone
Specifically, your plan fails to account for
( ) Which ones can be played on Linux?
( ) Eternal arms race involved in DRM
( ) Extreme profitability DVDs
( ) The MPAA
( ) The installed base of PS3s
(X) The vested financial interest of some media companies in the hardware
( ) My Dad's old black and white TV isn't HDCP compliant
and the following philosophical objections may also apply:
( ) Ideas similar to yours are easy to come up with, yet none have ever worked
( ) Which format has Pr0n
Furthermore, this is what I think about you:
(X) Sorry dude, but I don't think it would work.
( ) This is a stupid idea, and you're a stupid person for suggesting it.
( ) Nice try, assh0le! I'm going to find out where you live and burn your
house down
P.S. just kidding, I think this will be resolved without a clear winner.
I know this is probably off-topic but has there been a clear winner in the old DVD format war?
Obama's legacy: (N)othing (S)ecure (A)nywhere and (T)error (S)imulation (A)dministration
From the summary (and TFA):
DVD players needed over a decade to supersede the VCR in the living rooms of the United States
Umm...no. DVD was finalized in 1995, and by 2002 DVD was outselling VHS. That's a lot less than 10 years. They probably mean that it took ten years for every home that owned a VCR to also own a DVD player. That's a meaningless statement.
DVD was mainstream less than five years after launch and dominant in seven. It's the consumption of the media that is important, not the number of installed players. In another five years there will probably still be a huge number of VCRs, but VHS is about to be bumped off the store shelves in favor of DVD and its successors.
DVD could very well win the format war right now. Joe Consumer doesn't see a point in switching to HD-DVD or BluRay. When he does switch, HDDVD gets points for its name. That should be apparent from its install base...only 25,000 BluRay players are non-PS3, and most of the PS3s probably aren't being used as players.
My money is on HD-DVD winning the race, but BluRay sticking around indefinitely thanks to hybrid drives. HD-DVD has the name going for, a larger base of installed non-console players, and those nifty hybrid disks that will work in your DVD player today and your HD-DVD player next year. Talk about a seamless upgrade path.
120 characters for a sig? That's bloody useless.
First off, the big players in this high-stakes format war, won't make hybrids. Sony didn't produce VHS machines for years and years, and it would just kill them to make an HD-DVD machine (they'd have to license Microsoft's codec, for one). Too much of their profit line depends on them dominating this format war. The same can probably be said for the HD-DVD big guns.
Second, when DVD came out, only a few otaku actually owned much media -- sure you had some treasured Babylon 5 taped off the air, and the last week's worth of her "stories," but did you shell out $79.95 for a two-episode set of ST:TOS or even $29.95 for bulky VHS movies? Kid-vid, yeah, but those wear out from use and get replaced (Disney's on the HD-DVD side, BTW).
On the other hand, DVDs were designed for sell-through: I own a few full series of shows, a lot of favorite movies, obscure movies, anime, etc. I'm not replacing them any time soon.
Third, for most people, DVD's are good enough!. Especially with older TV sets... would you really buy Friends on Blu-Ray, just to see how much makeup Ross is wearing on screen? It's not going to add much.
Fourth, it doesn't matter, because digital delivery is already here. Between iTunes, HD DVRs, NetFlix online, etc., you just don't need those silvery coasters anymore. I know I've cut down on purchases and rentals since I got a TiVo. There's always something to watch.
Design for Use, not Construction!
No, HD over IP will end the format war.
Hybrid players will do the same thing for the format war that the Big Three video game platforms ave done for the video game industry: Change the game but not finish it.
.avi, .wmv, .rm, .mpeg, .mpg, .xvid, .umd, .mp4... It's just another pain in the ass thing to complexify the problem. Sure media players can goup all of these into a single player, but the contractural and legal issue that arise, since these are proprietary formats, make updaes and compatibility a h uge headache and pain in the ass.
There are now three formats out: Standard DVD, Blu-Ray, and HD-DVD. If you bought a player that would play all three, why would you need to switch? Of course, in the future, DVD will definitely become obselet, since it is the only format that is not HD as Blu-Ray and HD-DVD already are. So, that leaves two high definition formats for 100% of the HD disk market share. If you start selling hybrid players that can play both of them, then what does it matter if you are buying Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? Unless you are a videophile or always have to have the biggest and best of anything in your neighborhood, it doesn't matter what format you use. So, if companies no longer have to worry about compatibility issues and the criticality of those issues in determining a commercially viable product, no one is going to back out and let the other take over. If companies realize that they no longer have to worry about getting customers to buy their products as a matter of life and death, then we will be stuck with the same problem facing video game developers: Platform contracts, format conracts, and proprietary content issues that just irritate the customer because they would have to buy multiple expensive platforms so they can play all the games they enjoy, not just be limited to a specific few.
A hybrid player would further the multiple format problems that just flat out irritate users, since they would have to buy a hybrid player to be able to fully enjoy video media. If movie houses and studios got locked into contracts depending on what Sony will pay and what HD-DVD manufacturers will pay. If hybrid players come out, then good, I won't have to buy a different player for certain movies. BUT, then ALL players that you bought in the future would have to be dual format. The same thing can be seen in video media files:
They should do it like TV: "We're gonna switch from analog to digital in 2010. Do what you need to change. If you want something else, buy it, but it's you're problem.". There needs to be standard format for media, and someone needs to put practicalty above profits for that to happen.
If you want to see what runaway formats can be like, just look at a complete list of Centerfire Rifle Calibers (Wikipedia has a short list). They all do the same thing, but everybody wants to make there mark on the industry.
Knowing Google's lust for data collection, the Soviet Union is still alive and well inside the psyche of Sergey Brin....
$200 in 2009 for a dual format player? Come on now. If there is a dual format player by the end of this year for less than $300 I will be buying it, and I bet there will be.
The real clincher (I think) will be the first to get to affordable home archiving use. The first writer/media combo that is cheap enough to warrent the purchase for mid-income range families will be the one most likely to be widely taken up.
I'll be waiting about another three years from now though, just to be absolutelly sure.
"DVD players needed over a decade to supersede the VCR in the living rooms of the United States"
Over a decade? Basic math rules that idea out. The DVD format was released to the public in the spring of 1997. We're still a few months shy of a decade. I still use my original Toshiba DVD player from November of that year, which was a bargain at $500. Not my primary player anymore, but still good for the bedroom.
I find it more likely a codec upgrade that provides HD resolution on a standard DVD (with graceful fallback) will become popular than a DVD-based solution. The HD/Bluray upgrade isn't as big when you think that DVD players are doing for $25 bucks, and for all purposes, look pretty good.
This scenario is even more likely if online services and BW ramp up, but that's not likely to happen in the USA - but could happen elsewhere.
As usual, it'll probably be the pr0n industry that decides..
..don't panic
I dont care about resolution enough to go buy a new player and new media for movies. I found myself switching to DVD's (and CD's for the same concept) because they didn't wear out like our old magnetic tape VHS. VHS are not tolerant to heat at all. Try moving with a VHS collection in the summer. In only a short time you'll have ruined movies. VHS tend to survive children better than DVDs however.
I know HDTVs are selling very well, but regular DVD looks decent on my 26" HDTV LCD so what's my incentive to run out and buy either?
It's going to be at least a few years before people figure it's time to upgrade their relatively new DVD players.
Terrible karma and aiming lower, which in this environment of one-sided reason, is higher.
I think you're right on the money. Doing the same old thing better only gets you so far; doing something new, as the Wii is demonstrating, changes the rules of the game. Even as someone who appreciated the better picture of Beta into the 1990s, I felt the killer features for DVDs were random access and compact size, not so much video quality. And the uses and context of online video will be different. Video is different from film is different from theater, and online video will be different again. Subject to different constraints (no programming slots, no requirement for 22 or 45 minute episodes, advertising breaks, etc.), and with the potential for new producers to challenge the traditions of Hollywood, it will tell different stories in different ways. The differences will likely be very great, but trying to predict it now is probably about as useless as projecting from America's Funniest Home Videos to the success of YouTube. That doesn't mean the newer formats (or regular TV) will go away (although they will change): where now we have only "video", we may end up with multiple technologies with their own niches (just as computers and game machines are separate markets).
the # shipped to north america (us+can+mex) in 2006 was 1 mil, estimated sold in US was ~490ki deo_game_sales
2 .html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070113/ap_on_hi_te/v
refer to other posts about the 720p thing
and now to the third..
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070112-860
if every statement you brought up is wrong, how is the post informative? more like uninformed...
It seems the companies can prevent certain players from playing their DVDs (HD-DVD and BluRay) so what will stop them not just banning this one player and continue this bloody war?
Saying your "phone ran out of batteries" is like saying your "car ran out of gas tanks".
According to NPD results for November/December 2006 the PS3 has sold ~697,000 units in the US. (These are conservative figures based on measured sales channel data that don't cover all retail outlets nor does it cover Canada.) So where does the 400,000 number come from? November 2006 sales in the US alone? Japanese 2006 sales?
The CES press release from the HD DVD promotion group states that 175,000 players have been sold in North America through January 5th 2007 including Xbox add-ons, laptops and desktops with HD DVD drives, and standalone players. NPD data pegs US Xbox add-ons at 92,000 for 2006. So where do the 250,000 and 120,000 numbers quoted in this article come from? Worldwide numbers? Wishful thinking?
Since these numbers appear to either have no supported basis in reality, or be comparing apples to oranges, it's pretty easy to draw horribly misleading conclusions from this "data."
If you look at how quickly movies were released on DVD, it was actually a fast process, and as a result, people started to buy DVD players. Now, the price wasn't $800 or $1000 for the cheapest player, it was closer to being $400 initially, and moving down to the $200 range within two years. As a result, the move to DVD was very smooth due to a reasonable price, even for the early adopters.
Now, look at stand-alone players for the new formats. Can you find one for $400 right now? Of course not, unless you go out and buy a game console. That's where the flaw is here, the group they are trying to sell the new formats to. While there are SOME gamers who will watch movies on their console, the vast majority of people out there have no desire to buy a console just so they can watch a HD movie, regardless of the format. The whole HDCP issue, downgraded quality if your screen doesn't support it, price of movies on the new standard, and the price of a HDTV itself is a good reason why people have stayed away.
So, if they want to release a player for $200, or even $400, they will get people to start buying, but until then, don't expect many people to care enough where they will pay an additional $1000 for a player, plus however much it would cost to buy movies on the new format. In many cases, the quality of DVD was enough for many movies.
Betamax
Remember how SACD and DVD Audio were hyped up a few years ago? I guess people cared more about the convenience of iPods able to hold their whole music collection than the quality of hi-def audio.
Why don't you reply to anonymous posts?
Will Hybrid Players End the Format War?
No, Apple TV will.
As Leo Laporte pointed out, Sony already has decided to lose the war. It won't produce Bluray porn discs, so the biggest video sellers will be using HD.
Penny - plain text accounting
If we get to a point where there are $200 HDDVD/Bluray hybrid players and all of the major studios get on board with either HDDVD and/or Bluray and start regularly releasing new movies and legitimate classics/favorites, I'm definitely in.
The appeal of high definition to me is that I feel like if I am purchasing a movie in this format, the quality of the video and sound will be substantially to the point that I may never wish to buy another version of it again.
For every DVD I've bought since day one I've known I was going to want to replace it in HD if it was a movie that I really loved.
But in terms of quality approaching that of the original analog film medium, any format beyond 720p or 1080i is thus far pretty indistinguishable from each other, and certainly often beyond the original source.
if films begin to be shot in higher res formats, and there is a perceivable benefit (as there is with HD over SD) it will only affect new movies - i'm guessing the diminishing returns of quality beyond good HD and 35mm may have very limited appeal.
I used to think the PS3 would end the format war in Blu Rays favor. But teh consoles were too late, too hard to get and too expensive. Also they have not come up with the 'killer' game or any great movies in HD.
I was going to buy a PS3 just for the BluRay player, but at this point a single format player is a liability, taking up a precious video input and only playing half of the movies out there. I won't buy any next gen console until they come with a dual format player. And it'll be a long time before SONY does this, my money is on an xbox addon first...
Of all the posts I've read on this subject, I think all the "techies" are missing something much much more basic in the format war... the NAME! Regardless of titles, technical pros/cons or any other information, most general consumers will look only at the name. HD-DVD = HDTV.. There is a clear marketing advantage here using the HD label. Consumers will see HD-DVD and equate that with HDTV. Most consumers know very little to nothing about the technical format or how many titles are available. They will make their decision based solely on the name. They will see HD-DVD and it will be obvious that this is a next generation DVD. Consumers will look at the name Blu-Ray and wonder what that is. They'll see Blu-Ray and HD-DVD and choose the one they think they're familiar with. I would personally love for Blu-Ray to be the dominant format. I just don't think it's going to happen based only on the naming convention for average consumers.
Even though the BDA association isn't technically against porn, they sure are making it hard for any porn to get produced on Blu-ray
:-/
That's kind of ironic, considering "Blu Ray" sounds like a gay porn flick. I remember when Americans used to laugh at the name of the British TV show, "Blue Peter".
Even more ironic that HD-DVD stands to reap the pornographic windfall, since "HDD VD" sounds like a rather nasty sexual infection that wipes all your data...
"Slashdot - News and Chat Sites Deviant". (Click "homepage" link above for details).
DVD quality is good enough for most people and most movies. Many older films and TV shows will just show more film grain when digitized in high def so there really is little point. Besides, DVDs have been -so- popular why would everyone who actually bought them repurchase anything they already have?
Here in the UK, we are expected to pay £60 for a DVI cable (PC World/Dixons,/Comet prices) - yes that is $120 for a piece of wire and two plugs. Even if they are "oxygen free" This is not the way you get early adopters. This is the way you make people feel they are being pissed on from a great hight.
Sent from my ASR33 using ASCII
"It ain't a war against drugs.it's a war against personal freedom" --Bill Hicks
With an amazing 25,000 sales, I think we can safely say that Blu-Ray as a standalone-player format is in real danger. Don't get me wrong, I think it's currently looking like HD-DVD have a lot of work to do to survive (which is a pity, as I've got a few discs on my shelf, due to buying those dual-format ones rather than normal DVDs). But right now the standalone players are getting their backsides smacked around the park by the PS3 sales, while at the same time they don't seem to be doing as well as Sony hoped in comparison to other games consoles.
Which says to me that the margin between PS3 and standalone will stay that way for a while. Already "The Guardian" has been announced with special features that don't work on any standalone player; it's looking like the de facto machine to use. Pioneer and Panasonic can't be too happy...
"I Know You Are But What Am I?"
Just to be a little more accurate there are over 2 million PS3's shipped now, and around 1.4 million sold. There are less than 200k HD-DVD players sold.
Now looking at those numbers it starts to look a little more bleak for HD-DVD as compared to Blu-Ray.
This could explain the large number of Blu-Ray movies out this year vs HD-DVD. It looks like there are around 2X as many movies coming out for Blu-Ray as HD-DVD. That also isn't very good for HD-DVD.
The price appears to be about the same now with a PS3 going for $500 and a HD-DVD player going for around $500, so the price advantage that HD-DVD had is gone.
Recent data on Amazon show that Blu-Ray movie purchases has now exceeded HD-DVD as of Nov of last year and it appears that total sales will be greater for Blu-Ray than HD-DVD in less than a month (if it isn't already), adds to the near death nail for HD-DVD.
Then you look at the content providers that are behind Blu-Ray and you start to see HD-DVD being killed off later this year.
Did anyone notice the HD-DVD presentation vs the Blu-Ray presentation at CES this year? Yet another bad sign for HD-DVD.
I will say that the pr0n industry picking HD-DVD will help it, but it appears that most pr0n is downloaded now, and the loyalty of that business isn't exactly as strong as say Disney.
So I guess Microsoft better get use to having Java run on even more stuff out there.
The more I learn about science, the more my faith in God increases.
Hybrid players only solve part of the problem. A bigger battle is for retailer shelf space. What retailer wants to stock three (four including VHS) of the same title? Eventually someone like Best Buy is going to start pushing one format out. Unless they start creating hybrid discs too.
Hybrid players will change the playing field for key revocation.
It was assumed before that if a player had a security breach, the player could be turned in to a paperweight and the customer would have to buy a new unit from a more secure vendor.
With hybrid players, that changes. If, for example, HDDVD revokes the player's keys, then it will be turned in to a Blu-ray only player. The customer won't toss it in the trash -- they'll either keep using it as their main player or as a player in another room.
Key revocation doesn't work well unless you have a monopoly on the distribution format... something no-one has yet.
HIV Crosses Species Barrier... into Muppets
Sony isn't working on a dual format player. To fully implement HDDVD and BD in today's cost structure would require rebooting the player every time you changed formats. The emphasis is on reducing the cost of manufacturing the player by reducing front panel buttons, and fixing bugs in the current player.
...to a 28" CRT TV and the picture was substantially better than VHS. Much, much better than the difference you see when switching the connection from S-Video to component (and the latter are going into a HD projector projecting a 120" image or more.)
GLAY'z have apparently released two titles on Blu Ray (I love the Jap-Engrish descriptions):
TO START
PRESS ANY KEY
Where's the 'ANY' key? I see Esk, Kitarl, and Pig-Up...
However, last week (January 16) Hirsch said they will now back both formats. Their first title is scheduled to be released in both Blu Ray and HD DVD on March 28. Also note that Hirsch says they encountered hurdles while producing for Blu Ray:
However, not all of what Heise printed is invalid. Hirsch did note that Vivid has encountered hurdles while producing adult entertainment for Blu-ray more so than HD DVD.
Sony is not giving any assistance in the authoring or replication of adult content on Blu-ray, said Hirsch. Sony is somehow trying to keep away such material from the format, which I think is a mistake.
Without Sonys help, Vivid had to find authoring and replication facilities on its own. Hirsch added that Sony puts restrictions on all Blu-ray manufacturing facilities that produce Disney titles disallowing them from making adult content. By comparison, the manufacturing process for Vivids HD DVD adult titles is much easier as it is able to make use of existing facilities.
TO START
PRESS ANY KEY
Where's the 'ANY' key? I see Esk, Kitarl, and Pig-Up...
From your article: units may not have reached stores in time to be sold (and witness the piles of them in Best Buy last time I was in there, about two weeks ago.) Shipped != Sold.
I described the "720p thing" perfectly accurately. I own one, latest updates, and it does not output 720p for DVDs, only games, which is exactly what I said.
Your quote refers to the "BDA". I said Sony was balking - that's not outright refusal, that's dragging feet, that sort of thing. Get, and USE, a dictionary. The reason that I said that is because the wholly-owned Sony subsidiary Sony DADC Global that produces Blue-Ray disks has refused to master Porn DVDs. This is public, stated policy from them.
So seeing as how every part of your "rebuttal" was off the mark, perhaps you should change your reply technique to "think, research, post" — "post and wait for reply" doesn't seem to be working out for you.
I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
This was same for DVD- and DVD+ which was the previous format war. Now most of the newer players capable of reading, writing and re-writing in both formats and it benefits us all, the consumers. However the manufactures are not jumping joy since each format wants a monopoly on this and want to get all of the revenue. Also I know it is a pain to get all of the lasers, lens and other gear to allow all of these format to work in one drive. However the winners are all of the consumers since we don't need to by several drives or players just to play one particular format. To date myself here are all of my current electronic media devices I have: a radio tuner with amplifier, a record player, cassette recorder/player, VCR, CD player and DVD player. Note that each where bought before the other format existed. This format wars just makes more (expensive) electronic junk that we need to throw out eventually.
First of all, the thing that bums me out about articles like this is that there's always a couple of different crowds that pop into this discussion EVERY TIME. The first are the naysayers who predict the demise of both formats and the non-adoption of HD-TV in general. I think that's a patently ridiculous assertion from people who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. The original television standard is now over 60 years old; it is showing it's age. A properly calibrated HD-TV looks great and delivers a measurably higher-quality experience; I wonder if any of the people poo-pooing HD have actually SEEN a system that delivers the full potential of the medium. And the price is not as ludicrous as people say. You can get a very nice 1080p 42" television for around 1500 dollars, which will work great in 95% of homes. Considering the amount of coin that most slashdotters (and the iPod-buying public in general) drop on technology, this is certainly not an outrageous amount of money. Since HDTV media is able to be broadcast over the air or downloaded, it is not tied to the success of Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. It is here to stay and will become more and more of a factor as the general public is made aware of the large jump in quality.
Secondly, there is the "too much" crowd. As in, "I have terrible eyesight, or would be happy with a postage-stamp-sized square of video" people, and HD is "too much" for them. Which is fine, but this group needs to realize that the vast majority of people don't feel this way. To take this to the extreme, I even saw a ludicrous comment in this very discussion along the lines of "Why do people even need 16:9, 4:3 cropped is fine...". No you luddite, the reason that 4:3 cropped movies are not "fine" is because they infringe on, and in some cases destroy*, the coherence of the visual scene that the director is trying to construct. It's absolutely myopic to think that because your vision is poor or your depth of field narrow that television technology should stay firmly mired in the 4:3 aspect ratio. (Which, by the way, was chosen because it was the cinematic aspect ratio of the 40s and 50s! 16:9 and greater were used by directors starting predominately in the 60s, and was popular enough with viewers to become the de facto cinema screen ratio.) Of course there's no helping some people: I have a friend who has a 22" Zenith television from the 70s with color so bad that Friends looks more like Amigos and they are happy with it; I have another friend with a blurry big-screen that looks like absolute shit that he is happy with it(the "quantity over quality" mentality in action). But I have built out 4 media centers for my friends on a pretty reasonable budget and without fail all of these systems have been regarded very highly by guests, relatives, etc. Virtually no one has said that the system is "too much" or that they wouldn't want one if they had the option. So to all of those that say that HDTV is "too much" for them: I am sorry that you are going to have to pay for features you won't be able to appreciate, but then again I am sure color-blind people bitched about it when black-and-white televisions went out of favor. You'll live.
Having said all this, I myself believe that HD-DVD and Blu-Ray might still fail. The number one thing that will kill both these formats is the price of the discs. No one wants to pay 25 dollars (HD-DVD) to 30 dollars (Blu-Ray) for a movie; that is just too much and is a major barrier to the success of the formats. And in many cases these are movies that the potential audience already owns on DVD. Is a better picture quality, and ONLY better picture quality**, worth it? I suspect that the answer will be no. This will change as more HD discs of new releases are released "day and date" with their DVD counterparts. The second issue is that the players are WAY too expensive. I myself own an xbox360 (that I wanted anyway, seperate from HD-DVD) and bought the reasonably-priced HD-DVD add on for it. Keep in mind that I am 100% co
Say HD DVD to someone and get them to guess what it means. A large percentage will at least know that it is some kind of DVD.
Now say Blu-ray to another set of people. I doubt anyone will have a clue. They will likely think it is some kind of wireless network because of the blutooth branding.
I think it will have a much faster adoption because the physical medium and playback are so similiar. As soon as the players get to around 150-200 and they play all three types then people will buy the HD-DVDs at best buy over the blue ray because it makes sense and sony will give up. There will be a version of the PS3 with a hybrid drive in less then 3 years I reckon.
If you can read this sig, you're too close.
both will loose. Just like SACD vs DVD-A. Thanks to Sony (which pushed their proprietory SACD just when the audio industry agreed on incrementally better (compared with Red Book) DVD-A standard. Both SACD and DVD-A are now relegated to niche market. Now again: Blue Ray vs HD, and again: Thanks to Sony. I think the majority of the folks will be happy with the regular DVD plus upconverter (such as Oppo) to HD (like 1080p).
How many of all those PS3s will be used to watch anything more than a lackluster (for Hi-Def, at least) Talladega Nights?
/Owns a PS2 but doesn't use it to watch DVDs
The problem with "updated numbers" is that most people bought a PS3 as a GAME SYSTEM. The movie player, for the PS3 owners, just happens to be there, but that doesn't mean they will go out and buy movies, or use the player.
In contrast, people who went out and purchased an HD-DVD add-on for the Xbox 360 ACTUALLY ***WANTED*** THE HI-DEF DVD FORMAT.
The difference is significant, because we can't reach into the minds of PS3 owners and determine what percentage yawned at the pack-in movie and said, "what crap, why would I want to spend more money on a Blu-Ray movie, just to see Will Farrell's cold sore in excruciating detail?" - and be assured, there is a percentage.
So Sony has only managed to muddy the Blu-Ray numbers by forcing consumers who bought a game console to also buy a player.
For me right now 30GB or 50GB doesn't matter, as it is still much larger that DVDs. The first one to cost $2-3 (and eventually less) per blank disc will win with me, period.
If I understand the way DVDs are manufactured, the content producers all share only a handful of companies that record copies of the masters onto the discs. So the DVDs in one of these factories could be for different studios all under the same roof.
If this is the case, wouldn't it be to the advantage of these "manufacturers" to choose one format, esp. one that has the lowest (if any) licencing / royalty fees attached to it? If you do hybrid discs, I'm sure your adding to the costs no matter which way you look at it. Content producers and manufactuers all end up paying for it effecting their bottom lines. Oh, and the bottoms of Consumers!!
Why would I even consider buying HD/BluRay when they're choked to the throat with oppressive DRM? Vote with your wallet if you really care. More power to people like Jon and muslix. For the majority of the populace DVD delivers excellent quality and is more than sufficient.
That is the reality. Why? The porn industry announced that they are going with HD DVD. Remember history? Porn Industry went with VHS, and what happened win Sony Beta?? I guess Sony has not learned what industry drives technology. If you do not believe this, look what paid for this internet in the first place.
It will help one side win.
I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
I can play PS3 games and Xbox 360 games, and Wii games for that matter. I'm a hybrid player! Will I end the format war?
No, seriously, there's a metaphor here. The companies involved will just keep pushing out their respective formats to compete for time from the multi-format players. This isn't ending the format war, just preserving it, taking away most of the pressure to end it. Format wars 'end' when someone LOSES.
Adaption in the consumer mind will come with when the cost of the player comes down.When the dvd players reduce in price the consumers will follow.
I agree with your tape to CD comparison, and VHS to DVD.
There have been successors to CD, though, in the form of SACD and DVD-Audio. It's just that noone uses them 8-).
And it does look like a similar deal w/ HD-DVD and Blueray.. the article indicates, excluding game machines, 25,000 Blueray players and 125,000 HD-DVD. That's not a whole lot compared to the large base and sales of DVD players.