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Running the Numbers on a US Pandemic
Lucas123 writes "A U.S. pandemic would exhaust antiviral medications, reduce basic food supplies, put ATMs out of service, shut down call centers, increase gas prices and up health insurance claims by 20%, according a test project developed by financial service firms. The pandemic paper planning scenario is used by 3,000 banks, insurance companies and security firms in preparing for disasters. The financial services groups are now sharing the pandemic flu exercise information, and all the scenarios are available for download."
Expect this to be shut down fairly quickly as it is a private directory and marked as "Not for public release"
:-)
That said, essentially, what we have is an issue of upkeep. This world does not run itself and requires input to prevent things from running down, so it been said before, but amateurs discuss things such as strategy, but the experts discuss logistics. And it is logistics that need to be organized in times of planning and scenarios run to discover where the logistical chain breaks down. These weak links in the chain are those areas that need attention and typically those are the links that rely upon people to maintain the flow of information/goods/support.
The interesting thing to me is that they appear to have modeled this pandemic spread as originating in Lagos, Nigeria which would be a relatively slow introduction or pathogenic spread into the rest of the world until it hits an area like Beijing, Calcutta or any other rapidly growing supermetropolis where you have hordes of people living in less than ideal conditions right next to others who travel extensively throughout the developed world. Their exercise appears to miss China and Indonesia entirely which could if modeled in lead to much more rapid spread, involving potentially many more people or even invoke or enhance infective "ringing" where waves of infection or reinfection propegate through various large populations.
P.S. exercises like this are important to release to the public as most folks simply do not have any guidance or have given any thought to preparing for such a possibility. What are you going to do when the zombies show up at your door?
Visit Jonesblog and say hello.
The report is available in paper format.
Just make sure you print your own copy out, the last guy who wanted to give it you didn't wash his hands.
liqbase
That would suck.
Now what?
But, do the scenarios cover dealing with the virus infected zombies roaming the earth looking to feast on the brains of the pandemic survivors?
War Profiteer.
I rest my case.
PatRIOTically,
K. Trout
I would expect that a pandemic would place a larger burden on the system than that. Or do they expect that so many of us will just simply die that it will average out to only a 20% increase in claims?
Of course the hyper-cynical side of me wants to point out that claims for dead people are seldom paid out, so I could see that as an explanation for the increase being at only 20%.
Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
Slashdot Burying Stories About Slashdot Media Owned
What of real pandemics? A shortage of grits?!
So basically, -1 troll/offtopic is really slashdots way of saying "I hate that you thought of something before me."
After all, all they want to do is eat your brains. They're not unreasonable. I mean, no one's going to eat your eyes!
Interested in a Flash-based MAME front end? Visit mame.danzbb.com
Would we hear the same thing as all other supposedly-to-be-pandemics-in-other-continents that never came to be?
...thus canceling the upcoming election and keep himself in office indefinitely.
U.S. pandemic. Which idiot came up with that phrase ?
There is no such thing as a US pandemic, there is only a pandemic.
Seems like this is inevitable. Already there are med-resistant staph infections in the news which are killing more people than AIDS does. Forget terrorism; the next big die off will be from a microscopic threat.
Well, one thing that I'm going to do is to get some decent masks. They showed a couple on a news report last night, related to the San Diego fires. Apparently the worst soot particles as the smallest, as these are so small that they not only go through most masks, but they also travel the farthest.
So, does anyone know what are the best masks to use during an actual Pandemic? And will these indeed be effective?
Really, the fact that it kind of scared the crap out of people has been a good thing. It made everyone realize that we weren't even remotely prepared. The U.S. and other countries are starting to stockpile influenza antivirals like Tamiflu and Relenza. This was something we've been needing to do for a while and the H5N1 scare has really kicked everyone into action.
Sadly, influenza epidemics are a given. It's not a matter of "if", but "when". There were 3 in the last century and they all happened before good antiviral drugs were available. Stockpiling these drugs could very well save hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives. The short-term economic cost of a pandemic would be huge, but it would seem trivial compared to the long-term cost of the loss of 5-10%, or more, of the population.
It's good we're testing these kinds of scenarios, but my biggest concern was the stockpiling and availability of antivirals which, fortunately, seems to be getting much better...
The whole study comes into question for not using World of Warcraft as a modeling tool for pandemic.
Bah.
Marshall doesn't seem to have a law school
The last flu pandemic was the Hong Kong flu 1969. It didn't exactly bring the end of the world. There were no effects like what are described here.
Everyone hears "flu pandemic" and they think 1918, which was the worst in history. But there have been pandemics since then and they haven't been that bad. Just cause it's a pandemic doesn't mean it's the worst pandemic in history. That's like thinking that every recession is going to be the Great Depression.
You could always go the extra step and avoid all contact with anything just like Howard Hughes. If you really want to do that, you might as well add in the addiction to codeine and valium, build a plane out of wood, and wear tissue boxes as shoes. What it takes to be a billionaire...
on the ever-swelling Terr'ist Watch List...
You download THAT, you just GOTS TA BE be a wee bit interested in causing or learning how to cause mayhem....
OTOH...
Previously: "Linux... Toward the Sunrise..." Now: "Linux... Toward the-- No, now, part of Every Sunrise"
We have to protect our banking system! We should definitely start some kind of a group that would be willing to donate food, medicines, educational supplies or potable water to the banking system. We can't let anything bad happen to them.
------ The best brain training is now totally free : )
By upcoming you mean over 12 months away, right? God you're such a moron. Hey, why haven't the Democrats ended the Iraq war like they promised to?
Webster's defines a pandemic as something "occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population" So defining an area for a pandemic isn't by definition wrong.
Now that is a surprise to me. My guess would have been that the U.S. government had classified the report. Embolding the terrorists or such some.
If members of Generation Y are still too lazy to pursue a career in a field that demands tech-savvy individuals (entomology, epidemiology, statistics, mathematics to name a few), America has its thumbs up its collective ass if such a pandemic were to arise. Thank you, internet for the retardation of our youths.
I get 32.33 (repeating of course).
If an officer ever threatens to taze you, say you have a pacemaker.
Not if you keep that tin foil hat on fellow.
Not even WWII stopped presidential elections in the US. Just not going to happen and no evidence that it could.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
Are you talking about Thomas Riley Marshall (VP of US nearly a hundred years ago) or John Marshall (chief justice of SCOTUS about two hundred years ago)? They're both dead; I don't see how the current president could use either one for legal advice. Ah... Is this some kind of seance thing? (I heard Reagan was into that stuff. But why not just channel Reagan? Having died more recently, he would be closer to the mortal realms, anyway.)
"Believe me!" -- Donald Trump
The pandemic is so bad, the City of Chicago has been moved to Cleveland.
That most certainly is not what Fox news says.
"If these deaths all were related to staph infections, the total would exceed other better-known causes of death including AIDS -- which killed an estimated 17,011 Americans in 2005 -- said Dr. Elizabeth Bancroft of the Los Angeles County Health Department, the editorial author."
The 17,011 is for AIDS deaths in 2005, not superbug deaths.
Regarding their number for the superbug, which is an extrapolation, they say this.
"There were 988 reported deaths among infected people in the study, for a rate of 6.3 per 100,000. That would translate to 18,650 deaths annually, although the researchers don't know if MRSA was the cause in all cases."
It was a most bizarre hour. The lady doing the presentation was funny and cheerful, which starkly contrasted with the subject matter. It was almost surreal to hear her talk pleasantly about the inevitability of a pandemic, the mortality rate of those infected, and the projected death toll in the local communities.
I walked away from the training with the belief that a pandemic would bring our economy to a screeching halt, though the presenter never said so. I also left thinking, "If this thing hits, I'm going to live in the woods for three to six months, starting with news of the first human-to-human infection in the US." Then again, I'm prone to overreaction. I think it stems from watching Red Dawn so many times as a teenager.
Let us not become the evil that we deplore.
is that in past epidemics, living in cities was the LAST place to be. They always had the highest death rates due to the intermingling of ppl.
Now, the places to be will be the cities with high connectivity. It will be possible to minimize our interactions with others. Netgrocers would take off during these times. Likewise, this report says that call center would fail. Yet, I think that the call centers that are using voip and have the ability to allow their employees to work from home will do great. In addition, any work that can be done with little to no interactions with others will continue to thrive. Where the problems will come from are those jobs that require you to interact large number of ppl. What I think will be the big issues will be our schools.
I find it funny that they believe that an epidemic will originate in Africa. I would expect most to come from extremely populated areas.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
A massive reduction of human population would reduce the stress on:
- fresh water reserves
- dwindling oil supplies
- food crops already threatened by global warming
- natural resources such as forests
so it's not all bad.
"I bless every day that I continue to live, for every day is pure profit."
I just spent $450 on ammo this past weekend: .308 .22
.22 .223
:(
.22 when the zombies come, just takes one headshot and I can probably carry 20x the ammo.
150
550
2000 9mm
Plus my current stock:
~600
~250
Damn war is making ammo expensive
The upshot is that the prices on the ammo I use should drop dramatically, since they're all military calibers.
I want a bunch of
Yes, I am a smart ass; it's better than the alternative.
We have to protect our banking system! We should definitely start some kind of a group that would be willing to donate food, medicines, educational supplies or potable water to the banking system. We can't let anything bad happen to them.
You know, sarcasm can be a really elegant tool, when it isn't used in the service of ignorance.
You think the economy would suck if a whole lot of people couldn't physically go to work or handle food? How much MORE do you think it would suck if everyone who was still participating in a wounded economy had to also drive around wheelbarrows of barter goods in order to get anything done? A well-oiled electronic banking system could well be one of the most important assets in preventing social collapse in the event of a particularly ugly pandemic. So, what will YOU be bartering? Copies of Ubuntu on cool purple DVDs? Your three extra pairs of clean socks? Your ability to dig out latrines? Hmmm. Many a modern economy is more convenient than a medieval one, and worth protecting. No banking system, no modern economy.
Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
...this guy knew what to do
It took me about 9 seconds to get the "yfluk" tag, but when I did, I almost fell out of my chair.
Man, I sure hope we don't have Y2K and a pandemic hit at the same time.
From the looks of it, this is another scenario that underestimates the impact of a pandemic. Not only is there the usual underestimate of disease lethality, the plan usually assumes that a sizeable percentage of people WILL STILL GO IN TO WORK. Who the hell is going to bother going to work if people are dying? Look at the overreaction on terrorism - people will panic, barricade the doors and threaten to shoot anyone that approaches. Within 1-2 weeks of the first signs in the US, all businesses and systems will be at a standstill. Nobody will be there to keep things running.
Finally, all the free market idealists on slashdot could have their dreams of a precious-metal-backed currency realized. Too bad 20% of them will be coughing up too much blood to take advantage of the fact that their savings (kept under their mattress) wouldn't lose value due to inflation.
"Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
I'd prefer to keep technology around, thanks.
Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
The study assumed an absenteeism rate of 50%. About one out of every four people in the U.S. caught the last bird flu to become pandemic in human populations (the Hong Kong flu). And only a very small percentage of them died, about .06%. The current bird flu (H5N1) is 1000 times that lethal. Even if it becomes much less lethal when it becomes contagious to humans, it will far outkill the Hong Kong flu. So, once the bug arrives in a city and people start becoming sick and dying right and left, how many people will decide they will just go to work as usual. My guess in nearly none.
People trying to do us a favor by making us afraid? They are full of shit.
Just consider the Global Warming and population growth scaremongers:
They are exacly the reason why the Pentagon is spending 400,000,000,000 US$/year (NOT including the Iraq war). The doctrine clearly states that the uncontrolled pop growth and the Warming will cause lots of wars, hunger, mass unrest and migration, and multiple antropogenic disasters on a geological scale; this is why they claim we need to be spending 400B/year
Do you even realize how much is USD 400B? If you stacked 40,000,000,000,000 pennies on top of eachother, the resulting money column would go all the way to the Moon and then some. And that's what we spend each year because of a few fucks that are trying to scare up for the greater good.
Obama likes poor people so much, he wants to make more of them.
Kinda off-tangent, but anyone else remember reading in (most) nuclear-war type novels about how gold and silver were rejected as money because odds were very good that it was "hot"?
One would think that people would tend to recoil from dirty paper (let's face it, money is just that) and even coins during a pandemic in much the same way. After all, them germs can get into the tiniest of cracks and crevices on the coins, and paper...? Fuggedaboutit.
At least with a Credit/Debit card reader you know that the germs aren't going to piggyback on the electrons that make and confirm the transfer, y'know?
Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
Bad things have never, ever happened.
.. will probably set fire to the part where you keep your bullets. May beat the lethality of a malfunctioning South African robot, I think.
However, I do think you're right in a way - when the proverbial brown stuff hits the fan there may be a total breakdown of law & order.
I'm in a position where, thankfully, all of my job functions *could* be handled from home. In the case of a pandemic, I can call my office, tell them "Sorry, I'll work from home for the next month or two", put up a sign reading "We're not going to answer the door", and wait it out.
That is under the assumption, of course, that my various Internet connections don't all go down. That's a weak link in the idea. There very well may be more. I may not have a month's worth of toilet paper... hmmm.
Oh, you're not stuck, you're just unable to let go of the onion rings.
Money is a promissory note, and precious metals are worthless in the type of scenario we are talking about.
How much gold can you eat? drink? Gold is not some magical thing. People have to desire it in order for it to have any worth, just like everything else.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
I suspect that during a pandemic, the deliver will be PROHIBITED from contact with customers. Instead, they will deliver to the outside of a home (drop off on the front porch), and then leave. The ppl inside will then come out and pick up groceries. During a pandemic, what is needed is to isolate as many ppl as possible or limit the interaction to just a few.
It is the same principle as during AIDs. Back in the 80's, the push was to stop all sex except within a marriage (pub solution). Later, it was figured out that a simple condom would generally stop it. As time went on, ppl took to having F*&k friends. Just 1 or 2 ppl that they were screwing, but they were not in a relation with. The same thing will need to happen with the flu or other pandemics. Basically, limit who u interact with.
The businesses that are robotized, or those that are able to separate employees and those that are able to avoid having employees interact with customers, will be VERY successful. Those companies that depend on heavy interactions with others will be major losing. That means restaurants will go bye-bye. Grocery stores that you browse with everybody else will be hit hard (king soopers/krogers will take MAJOR hits). Likewise, manufacturing companies that need ppl to come to work will fall apart. I would expect to see china lose more than 2x the next highest percentage. And we would see manufacturing centers change back to more established countries where robots can do more of the work.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
A few cases of Vodka?
The Pentagon is looking at the possibility of using federal troops to enforce a quarantine in the event of an outbreak of pandemic bird flu in the United States, a senior official said on Wednesday.
President George W. Bush said last week he would consider using the military to "effect a quarantine" in response to any outbreak of avian influenza, but provided few details.
Bush at the time also suggested he might place National Guard troops, normally commanded by state governors, under federal control as part of the government's response to the "catastrophe" of such a flu pandemic.
Paul McHale, assistant defense secretary for homeland defense, said quarantine law historically has been under the primary jurisdiction of states, not the federal government.
"And my expectation is that any quarantine measures that would be put in place would likely involve a substantial employment of the National Guard, probably under command and control of the governor of an affected state," McHale told a group of reporters.
"However, we are looking at a wide range of contingencies, potentially involving Title 10 forces (federal troops) if a pandemic outbreak of a biological threat were to occur," McHale added.
The H5N1 avian influenza virus has killed or forced the destruction of tens of millions of birds and infected more than 100 people, killing at least 60 in four Asian nations since late 2003.
Experts fear that the virus, known to pass to humans from birds, could mutate and start to spread easily from person to person, potentially killing millions worldwide. Experts have questioned America's preparedness.
McHale said he believed there would be a clearer understanding within a few weeks of the military role in response to pandemic bird flu as part of a broader federal response. Pentagon officials were meeting on Wednesday to discuss the department's role in a flu pandemic.
One issue that could face the U.S. government in the event of an outbreak is whether or how to cordon off parts of the country to prevent the disease from spreading.
The Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, enacted during the post-Civil War reconstruction period, prohibits federal military personnel from taking part in law-enforcement within the United States. But a president can waive the law in an emergency.
in my neighborhood ice and trees take out both
from time to time.
I suspect it may be more difficult to borrow line repair
crews during a pandemic.
imagine fire fighting in california with a 50% absentee rate.
Place your bets, Fellas! Which happens first: a viral pandemic or starvation and other cool Gore-isms from Global Warming?
I work at one of the big wall st. banks, and when they announced this study a while back the managers were given randomly generated lists of employees who should be considered "out sick" during the simulated pandemic... then they were asked to describe how the trading desk would be impaired. Thankfully, I was the only tech guy who didn't fall victim to the hypothetical pandemic! None of the other tech guys do anything, so the impact was determined to be none. lol! I need a raise.
The other funny part was that the random number generator used to assign certain death didn't seem to be very random... nearly everyone on the list was from the first half of the alphabet. So, in order to further reduce any impact in a real pandemic we decided to try and hire so that first letters of employees last names have a low correlation to job roles.
Tip? These ladies aren't starvin to death. They make minimum wage.
Minimum wage for jobs with tips is not exactly the same as without. link. I had a friend who worked as a Shuttle Driver and made $2.15 an hour because he was never tipped, even though they expected him to be.
Rhymes that keep their secrets will unfold behind the clouds.There upon the rainbow is the answer to a neverending story
No-one cares if WoW players die.
Look, the odds of dying from a pandemic flu outbreak is not worth worrying about.
Look, even the 1918 flu pandemic only killed between 2 and 20% of those exposed.
OK, everybody, repeat after me: That will never, ever happen again. The 1918 flu was really bad, and would've been a lot worse likely in an age of air travel, but the conditions under which that flu virus _evolved_ will never happen again.
First thing you do with a major outbreak like this - close schools, offices, malls, any other place where large groups of people congregate and cough and sneeze on each other. What happened in the leadup to this one? War recruiting drive on everywhere. Crowd together all the young men to sign up for the army.
Now, picture the ideal conditions during WWI to both evolve and spread a flu like this. Troops coming back from the front, wounded or at least weakened from the conditions at the front (poor nutrition, sleep deprived, exhausted, stress, poor sanitation, chemical weapons). Get 'em all together in a room, packed tight, sharing the same air.
The other big scary thing about the 1918 flu was that most excess deaths (deaths above the # of deaths you'd expect in any given year due to flu) were in the age range 65. So it decimated the fit, young, adult population. Or, exactly what you'd expect, given the conditions under which it evolved.
I'm not saying that we shouldn't do work on vaccines, and containing outbreaks, that sort of thing, but let's not get real worried about this as if it's something that your HR manager should be planning contingencies for.
A more likely scenario is a hong kong flu or an asian flu scenario. Wikipedia (impeccable and irrefutable source of info that you are! anyways...) tells me that the the US death toll from the 57-58 flu was ~70,000, and the 68-69 flu had a US death toll of ~33,000 with 50 million infected, or ~1 in 1500.
While the idea of me or my loved ones dying of flu doesn't appeal to me, these numbers are on the same order of magnitude as car accident fatalities.
Let's put this stuff in perspective, OK?
The plural form of "anecdote" is "anecdotes", not "evidence".
Lighten up sonny. You're making generalizations and sounding like an ass.
Firstly -- the protections for civilians are grossly lacking. My point (which I was making in a humourous way, and you responded to like the worst kind of shrieking little manboy) is that civilian protection in terms of medical reserves DOES outweigh the importance of the banking system. And yes, I would rather be pushing a wheelbarrow around and have everyone vaccinated, than have a working ATM and 100 million dead.
Secondly, there's a difference between the "banking system" and the "society". A collapse of the banking system would not create social collapse. Argentina had a banking collapse, and they got through it. I'd rather live through an Argentinian style crisis than a "Hot Zone". Priorities sonny. Priorities.
Oh and as for your mighty little banking system, I'm not the one spending US dollars that have lost 35% of their value over the last 6 years, but you probably are -- so I suggest you go and make some purple DVD's full of Ubuntu, you can probably sell them in a healthy economy overseas.
Shriek on little neo con. Save the banks. And don't look to closely, because they're not saving you.
------ The best brain training is now totally free : )
From an evolutionary point of view, it's not in a virus' "interests" to become really, really, lethal.
Think Ebola. Incubation time measured in days, spectacularly lethal (8 or 9 in ten, in hospital conditions).
If a virus kills me before I have a chance to sneeze and cough on my co-workers and the lady in the bank line, it's less likely to spread and reproduce.
As I said above, the only time there was ever a high excess mortality from flu was the 1918 strain, which evolved under unique conditions that you're not likely to see again.
The plural form of "anecdote" is "anecdotes", not "evidence".
...if you happen to be a tree
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
No. Gold is not some magical thing. And you can't eat it. But that's a retarded argument. You can't eat a house, or a 10 year T-Bill either.
Simply put, Gold is one of the best stores of value ever created. I challenge you to name a better one over the long haul (as in centuries).
Since the creation of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar has lost 96% of it's spending power. Which pretty much makes the US Dollar one of the worst stores of value on Earth. The "banking system" has presided over an utterly debauched currency for the past century. The dollar is an absolutely failed store of value.
Gold by contrast has lost none of it's value over the past century. It's spending power is intact. It's value has risen faster on average than the stock market, housing or land. So you can knock gold as being "archaic". (And it is). But the reality is that it doesn't have to do much: Just sit there and keep it's value. And it does that extremely well.
Every commodity, or investment vehicle has it's ups and downs. Gold is no exception. But we're talking about averages here. And gold has performed better than all else. (Better than the Dow, and better than average real estate prices). I can understand if you think that's magical. But it's just plain math.
Ron
Did he claim the banking system was totally unnecessary? I missed that part.
You're making generalizations and sounding like an ass.
You mean, generalizations like... like the people who work in finance, banking, and all of the behind-the-scenes telecomm and other plumbing that allows people to NOT have to work out of wheelbarrow should take a back seat to... someone else?
Secondly, there's a difference between the "banking system" and the "society". A collapse of the banking system would not create social collapse. Argentina had a banking collapse, and they got through it. I'd rather live through an Argentinian style crisis than a "Hot Zone".
You're confusing the failure of a bank's investments/investors, or other macro-economic issues that revolve around a healthy banking system (financially) with failure of the ability to actually write a check or wire some money. The people in Argentina didn't lose the ability wire money.
I'm not the one spending US dollars that have lost 35% of their value over the last 6 years, but you probably are
And luckily you're not making any assumptions or generalizations either, right?
Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
The way that pandemics spread is through communication of the disease via personal contact. Thanks to the internet, we now have -- at least in prototype form -- the means of carrying on many of the activities of society without physically bringing large groups of people together.
... well, you get the idea.
For instance, schools could in principle be carried out via the net, as there are several college degree programs and webcam-based systems for including shut-ins in classroom activities today. I can purchase just about anything I need over the web, and incur only the risk of dealing with the manufacturing and shipping personnel, and not an entire store full of people in addition. Most businesses can operate fairly effectively using people working from home -- the exception being manufacturing, but then we don't do much manufacturing here in the USofA any more, do we? I admit that there might be a problem importing goods from China, where manufacturing involves gathering LOTs of people together under one roof.
But foodstuffs are largely produced by a highly efficient force of a very few people, so if we can avoid grocery stores and purchase our groceries over the web, to be delivered by a team in biohazard suits
I'm sure that Exxon would suffer a bit, without millions of people driving to work, but by and large, I think that a workable economy would be possible with greatly reduced person-to-person interactions. I guess I'll just have to live with the thought of a reduced income for ExxonMobil.
No, the germs piggyback on your credit card itself, because they've wedged themselves into the slot you swipe your card through. Plus everyone you come within ten feet of in the process of using said card has a good probability of Infecting you. So unless you're going out in a moon suit, you will most likely catch The Disease.
Online transfers are your best bet, provided the delivery guy hasn't been Infected.
Gold is great if you have $n and you want to have the same value of goods in some period of time. As you say, a store of value. But you can't eat it, so you may not be alive to redeem it after a Zombie plague.
That's why I'm putting my money into Fresh Tomatoes! Yum! Who can't love them?
I bet someone in Basel (Roche HQ) is busy trying to explain to their boss why they should get a promotion for orchestrating the whole thing.
Psh.
I see... you're a man of the people now. You're for saving the banks first, because of the everyday people who work there. Nice try at a save.
And if you think people in Argentina could make wire transfers you're just plain uneducated.
And no, I'm not confusing macro and microeconomics. We all live in a world of fractional reserve banking and when you talk about "bank failure", you're talking about the whole shebang -- but that's probably flying past your head sonny because you're a genius and you've already passed judgments on everything under the sun. I happen to have lived in Cameroon during the "bank failure" and you couldn't make an bank withdrawal... make a phone call... nor could the government sell its debt. Run along and split those hairs now just to make sure you're not "confusing the banking system and society".
And no I'm not making assumptions. You definitely, 100% abslolutely, positively live in America.
When the shit hits the fan, your country will ABSOLUTELY, 100% POSITIVELY save the banks before the people. Just like they're doing right now, by debasing your currency to save the likes of Bear Stearns, Goldman and Merril Lynch and a whole host of foreign central banks that bought into the lies of YOUR banks who lied to them by selling them pure toxic shit wrapped up in sexy little derivatives. Let's not speculate, let's look purely at fact: Your banking system is currently in danger and the "save" has been to increase your money supply (thereby decreasing the value of the salaries and savings of every man and woman in your country). So in the banks vs. society equation, you already have a winner. And guess what, it wasn't you sonny.
And as your government creates hyperinflation (which in case you didn't know sonny, is just a form of invisibly taxing the people) you'll be waving pom poms and cheering along the whole time because your "society" is safe from the horrors of a bank default. LOLz. Thank god the world has smart little citizens like you who know all about the banking system.
But what do I know I'm a liberal retard who uses Linux and lives in the middle of nowhere.
------ The best brain training is now totally free : )
[citation needed]
In Repressive Burma, it's not just your connection that dies. slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=314547&cid=20819199
Don't forget our public schools. If you think that the work place is bad, just consider what our public schools have created. We are talking about large numbers of people who are even less likely to have proper hygiene, forced into tight quarters for hours on end, frequently being forced into physical contact with each other. Even worse is when they reach ~12 years old, when they have a bell that goes off approximately once an hour where the 30 or so people all get up and swap seats so that they are now in tight quarters with 30 new people.
To make matters worse, many schools will punish students if they stay home for being sick. And the new trick is to actually try and charge parents money if they keep their kids home when they are ill.
http://hardware.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=332909&cid=21036165
:-)
:( Why is life so unfair? :(
The man looks back at his friend and says, "I don't have to outrun... the tiger."
http://ask.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=155284&cid=13019624
If you and a friend are running away from a tiger, you don't need to outrun the tiger - just your friend.
http://it.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=218300&cid=17719532
The first hiker says, "I don't have to outrun the bear. I just have to outrun you."
http://hardware.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=133450&cid=11147834
You'll never outrun the bear!", to which the first replies "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you".
http://ask.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=74520&cid=6680918
The first man replies, "I don't have to outrun the tiger - I just have to outrun you."
http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=37669&cid=4037866
The first guy replies, "I don't have to outrun the bear. I have to outrun you."
http://it.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=165833&cid=13832561
AKA, I don't have to outrun the bear, I only have to outrun you.
http://it.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=157305&cid=13190996
The reply: "I don't have to outrun the bear. I just have to outrun you."
I can't believe you got Insightful for exchanging tiger/bear with zombie.
But what do I know I'm a liberal
Which, apparently, means you are far more likely to believe you've seen a ghost , too. And whether or not you actually believe in the false dichotomy you're preaching, you're still preaching it.
I happen to have lived in Cameroon during the "bank failure" and you couldn't make an bank withdrawal
My neighbor is from Cameroon. Thing like that are one of the reasons he moved here.
Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
I will seek and find you.
I shall take you to bed and have my way with you.
I will make you ache, shake & sweat until you moan & groan.
I will make you beg for mercy, beg for me to stop.
I will exhaust you to the point that you will be relieved when I'm finished with you.
And, when I am finished, you will be weak for days.
All my love,
The Flu
Today's vices may be tomorrow's virtues.
In 2005 I attended two conferences on Pandemic Flu issues here in Washington state. The best of dozens of seminars was given by an experienced epidemiologist at which I took notes and voice recorded the session. Subsequent independent reading has made me very concerned about the mutation potential of H5N1 and it's similarity to the 1918 influenza virus.
Concerning the comment about the Hong Kong Flu of 1969 not being very severe, this is true, however the worrisome aspect is that it fits a longer pattern in influenza pandemics of a deadly devastating pandemic followed by roughly two (sometimes 3) less lethal ones in the following 70-100 years, then another extremely virulent pandemic circles the globe claiming millions of lives. A few years ago researchers were able to examine army samples of infected 1918 tissue and found the biology of H5N1 is much closer to that of the Great 1918 Pandemic than the pandemics of 1957 Asian Flu or 1968 Hong Kong Flu.
H5N1 has an extremely high lethality once it lodges in the lower lungs of it's victims (most common yearly wintertime influenza bugs attach to receptors in our upper respiratory tract). The theory is that H5N1 has not acquired the ability to fit easily onto anything other than deep lower respiratory cells, which is one reason it has not spread easily into human hosts even those that spend lots of time in close proximity to infected birds. Since all influenza viruses mutate rapidly (it's in their RNA to do so) the fear in the medical community is that eventually H5N1 (or one of the other variants which I understand is now infecting pigs) will by random chance hit upon a mutation in one of it's rare human hosts that combines the easy human to human transmissivity of a similar virus (upper lung attachment sites for example) with H5N1's own unique lethality. The result will be a super killer virus that after it has run havoc thru the available host population in multiple waves (in 1918 these were several months apart) it only dies out when most of the surviving hosts have seen the virus before and developed antibodies that are able to attack the virus before it can overwhelm the bodies defenses.
Now for the really depressing news. During the "Great 1918 Influenza" the most likely to die after infection were NOT the old, infirmed or the very young. You stood a much greater chance of dying a horrible agonizing death, coughing up blood from your dissolving lungs if you were "able-bodied" and in the prime of health. The largest numbers of deaths occurred among those 20-40 years old. Among the medical teams in 1918 desperately working to save lives this was a baffling mystery. The best evidence I am aware of indicates the original infection occurred in a small Kansas farming community near a huge newly built (and squalid) army base which was housing thousands of new soldiers destined for the European trenches in WWI. Most of the soldiers were young, physically fit , but living in miserable conditions, stuffed into hastily constructed barracks or tents in the middle of winter. When shipped out on the rail system they spread the virus to major transit centers and eventually to Europe. The early virus had not yet matured to it's most lethal version, but it now had a vast host population to mutate within until it achieved a deadly state of influenza perfection. It was called the "Spanish Flu" because Spain was the only government willing to allow the press to report the outbreak of a deadly mysterious new illness. All the other major governments were suppressing any news which might hurt the war effort or give comfort to the enemy.
The other US population segment that had very high mortality rates were pregnant women. Depending on the wave, between 23% - 71% died if infected. Think about that number for a while.... Imagine the consequences to our grandparent's society if the worldwide fatality rate for all population segments had been say 50% instead of 3%-4% which historians estimate as the toll from the 1918 pandemic. I am not a medical pe
"Two roads diverged in a wood, you took the one less travelled and it sucked. Now you want to go back in time"
Also attended a talk last month by our state person in charge of these things. Antivirals are $16/dose and expire and you can't just build a few extra hospitals sitting around for when we need them so there is only so much you can practically do to be prepared. When the auditoriums fill up with cots like they did for the Spanish Flu people will be sent home to sink or swim. Death rate charts from the Big One show that quarantine is what works.
So if the country wants to be prepared: schooling-at-home and work-at-home groupware, online delivery of groceries and the like. How that affects net traffic is a good point.
True. And since we have such a history of using it as currency, likely it would be desired as currency should government institutions all fail. This may not be true in the immediate short-term, but would absolutely hold in the medium- and long-term.
That's incorrect. Money can be a promissory note. In today's world, it is not. You cannot redeem your money for another currency (or specie) by going to the originator of the money.
"Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
And that's a problem with gold-backed currency. Using a commodity as currency brings lots of problems into the money supply, since then the money supply will be affected by value fluctuations in the commodity itself. Currency needs to NOT be a commodity in order for an economy to function smoothly.
"Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
That hardly negates my point, but thank you for the correction.
mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
I've seen a bunch of people post here about how we'd run out of drugs/vaccines/etc. While that's certainly true from a distrobution point of view, it's somewhat less true about the actual supply. I work for one of the big pharmas (Not going to say which one, but we're in the top 5). We make vaccines. Since the pandemic flu showed up on the horizion, the management made some choices as to how to deal with it. Basically, they've identified key people and groups that would need to be here to keep the manufacturing and supply lines open. They've sockpiled food rations for 30-40 days, have cots, washers/dryers, etc. We have the infrarstructure to do it, too....we have our own wells, co-gen plant, communications....all that sort of stuff. They basically told those key people that they'd end up living here if the shit really hit the fan. Now, as to the question of if it'll all work....who knows. But at least they'll try.
Chris Knight is my hero.
They wern't stacking dead like cord wood on the white house lawn during WWII
Have you worked in the telcom industry, let alone any of the other indsutries? Do you have any experience at CO or perhaps at a control center? Do you realize how incredibly few ppl actually run these places now? The only issues will be the lines INSIDE of a home. Outside, it will be able easy to have workers isolated from others. I believe that the same is true of the other industries.
BTW, do you LIVE in America, let alone even visit here? Migrant workers do not do SHIT here in terms of % of work. Migrants account for less than 10% of total work. But it is concentrated in relatively few industries. farming, construction, food, and cleaning are the brunt. During an epidemic, you can bet that construction will slow WAY down. Food industry? Who will want to go to restaurants? Few. Cleaning? That will plummet. Farming will suddenly become mechanized. In addition, we will see major changes in our food processing. And it will happen VERY quickly.
In many ways, a pandemic would radically alter the world. The most advanced societies would actually do better. Jobs would shift back to here, and so would manufacturing. ANd yes, robots do not do most of the work. But that WILL change.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Back in 75-77 the BBC produced 3 excellent series called Survivors, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivors, about a pandemic which eventually killed about 90% of the population. Series 1 looked at what might happen as a pandemic started to remove the people who run the infrastructure of modern civilisation.
Now, the places to be will be the cities with high connectivity. It will be possible to minimize our interactions with others. Netgrocers would take off during these times. Spoken like a true cliff dweller. You with your NetGrocers and other delivery services are in close contact with a lot of people. They touch something, hand it to someone else who hands it to you. Many hands all handling stuff you handle. A recipe for disease spread. In very rural areas we have very little contact with other people and we're used to long periods of isolation such as when the winter blizzard's strike, mud season and such. The city is the worst place to be but you are most welcome to keep it and please stay there when the quarantine is declared. I find it funny that they believe that an epidemic will originate in Africa. I would expect most to come from extremely populated areas. Uh, Africa is extremely populated. They have high densities as well as vast open lands with few people coupled with some other interesting traits that can lead to pandemics. They're certainly not unique in that though.