IBM's Five Predictions for the Future

StonyandCher writes "IBM has released its second annual set of 'Next Five in Five' predictions. The company's crystal ball also revealed that the long-simmering trend toward "smart energy" devices will proliferate wildly. "Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser," a company statement asserts."

Comments

My first prediction

[Anonymous Coward]

These new web controllable appliances will be vulnerable to exploits, resulting in someone's house burning down a house after a hacker turns on their stove.

Re:My first prediction

[Anonymous Coward]

No, it's that minicity spam will ultimately be the fall of Slashdot.
-
Top 10 Reasons Why Captain Kirk is Better Than Captain Picard

10. Kirk ate little coloured cubes and still remained relatively healthy.
9. Kirk can beat a Vulcan at Chess
8. Kirk plays god with lesser cultures, and then exploits them for resources.
7. Picard never met Joan Collins.
6. Kirk knows how to deal with peace loving hippy goofs.
5. Kirk once fought a Greek god. And won.
4. If Kirk finds a strange spinning probe, he blows it up.
3. Kirk made do with obviously low performance technology.
2. If something doesn't speak English -- it's toast.
1. Two words: Shoulder Roll.

Re:My first prediction

[RobertM1968]

These new web controllable appliances will be vulnerable to exploits, resulting in someone's house burning down a house after a hacker turns on their stove.

Perhaps - if they become commonplace. There (for many years) have been controllable "appliances"... this is just an expansion of something that already existed. With stuff from SmartHome or X10, one could already control lights, AC, heat, security systems (with "back-links" to lights, and other stuff), locks and certain appliances via the web (and of course from home computers and dedicated/semi-dedicated consoles). Dishwashers (washing machines, dryers, etc) are something not yet on the "total control" aspect of such products... but I dont even see a need for that other than the "because I can" factor... why load a dishwasher and then wait to get to work/a friend's to go online to tell it to turn on (again, other than the "because I can" factor)?

Re:My first prediction

[Anonymous Coward]

I thought they were tired of playing myminicity.

Re:My first prediction

[inode_buddha]

I would just redirect the neighbor's fridge to goatse and wait....

Re:My first prediction

[PhotoGuy]

Dishwashers (washing machines, dryers, etc) are something not yet on the "total control" aspect of such products... but I dont even see a need for that other than the "because I can" factor... why load a dishwasher and then wait to get to work/a friend's to go online to tell it to turn on (again, other than the "because I can" factor)?

And there's more to it than that. I've seen more than one appliance meltdown in my day, and I've been glad I've been there to unplug them and take care of the problem. My girlfriend suffered a house fire from an electric dryer, and damn near had another one from an electric drill charger. I'm not a safety freak by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm generally of the opinion that pretty much house all household appliances should be *off* when you're not at home.

The only exceptions in my mind is a home security system, home monitoring (heat, water, etc.). The only thing I really think I'd like to control from elsewhere might be the heat (or A/C for your southern folk); if I'm unexpectedly away for a bit, it'd be nice to save on HVAC; similarly, if I'm coming home early, it'd be nice to have the heat (or A/C) kick in early for me. Other than that, spare the complexity; it's not worth it, and the added wiring/devices would only add to the already increased risk of fire from faulty devices running unattended.

Re:My first prediction

[JimNTonik]

How about noise? Maybe you want to run the dishwater when you're out of the house so that it doesn't bother you when you're trying to relax at home? That feature in itself would be worth it for some.

Re:My first prediction

[barakn]

1. Turn on dishwasher. 2. Step outside.

Re:My first prediction

[Anonymous Coward]

So you can use it during non-peak hours, and save on energy costs.

Re:My first prediction

[Falladir]

Some dishwashers have timers for that reason. The whole "step-outside" thing doesn't work if you want to be sleeping while it runs.

Re:My first prediction

[Dhalka226]

why load a dishwasher and then wait to get to work/a friend's to go online to tell it to turn on

My mom often loads up the dishwasher before she leaves for work. When she leaves, I am usually still in bed so she usually doesn't turn it on. The current solution is to leave a note on the fridge that says "turn on the dishwasher when you get up!" and it works pretty well, but obviously it would be more handy and reliable for her to be able to either start it remotely or, even better, set a timer that tells it to start up at some specific time.

Depending on exactly how smart we're talking, "wash when energy prices are lowest" would be handy as well.

Re:My first prediction

[RealGene]

How about noise? Maybe you want to run the dishwater when you're out of the house so that it doesn't bother you when you're trying to relax at home? That feature in itself would be worth it for some.
If that feature is worth it to you, you probably should have bought the better insulated, quiet dishwasher to begin with.
Of course, the "smart" dishwashers will be the better insulated, quiet dishwashers, not the low end crap installed by soon-to-be bankrupt homebuilders.
--Gene

Re:My first prediction

[Tim C]

But does your mum not start the dishwasher because she wants it to start at a specific time, or simply because you're in bed? From the wording of your post, it sounds like the latter, and that she simply doesn't want to risk waking you up.

I can't think of any reason why I would not want to start my dishwasher immediately if it was full and ready to go, unless I was concerned that it would wake someone up.

even better, set a timer that tells it to start up at some specific time.

This is a solved problem. My parents were using this sort of thing to start various appliances late at night (cheaper electricity) decades ago.

I'm a geek, I love cool tech, and I'm not saying that network-controllable or network-aware appliances are a bad thing. I just don't see the use of them. Sure, once in a blue moon I'll forget to start something up and then it would be handy, but I think I can live without it.

Re:My first prediction

[BBandCMKRNL]

... but I dont even see a need for that other than the "because I can" factor... why load a dishwasher and then wait to get to work/a friend's to go online to tell it to turn on (again, other than the "because I can" factor)? The dishwasher is almost full, but you see that you have enough dinnerware in the cupboard for your next meal, so you put detergent into the dishwasher and decide to wait until after your next meal to run it. You go out someplace in public and encounter some friends you haven't seen for a while. After talking for a few minutes, you invite them over for dinner...oops...you don't have enough clean dinnerware for everyone. No problem, you call your dishwasher and tell it to start now so you have enough clean dinnerware for everyone when you bring your friends home for dinner.

Now, until the security issue is worked out, I don't want anything important in my house controlable over the net.

Re:My first prediction

[PhotoGuy]

For far less cost than a home automation system, you can get a silent dishwasher :)

Re:My first prediction

[umghhh]

There are (possibly less developed) countries on this earth where the problem of the noice coming from e.g. dishwasher is taken care off. It is less expensive and less complex than having this remote controlled. I also recall that my dishwasher has a facility to go on washing in some hours time. Given that you will still have to load the dishes yourself (or will web do it for you?) it is maybe better if in your example you turn it on at the point when you go away for a while?
Other than that I see no reason why I should put wires or use wireless connections everywhere - it is expensive, produces security risks and adds layer of complexity where I do not appreciate it. As stated in the granparent's post it other than having the house preheated on my arrival (I live in a cold country) and having monitoring systems in place I see possibly one application - plants watering. If I can I still prefer to ask neighbourgs or friends to do so - I have one more reason to talk to them and that is good so.
Said all that I think this is inevitable - in few years time all appliances in our houses will have ip-address and will talk with somebody somewhere all the time. Whether we will appreciate it I do not know.

Re:My first prediction

[Sczi]

You've been watching too much Ghostbusters.
"Man, this food tastes like ass"

Re:My first prediction

[Sczi]

I'd just like to point out that I now get about 10 times as many posts of people bitching about myminicity than actual links to it. In fact, I can't even remember the last time I saw an operational link to it on here (I filter at 0). If you get a link and it was in the last 5 minutes, just chill out and wait, someone will mod it down, and then it will be gone(ish).

Re:My first prediction

[The name is Dave. Ja]

INTRUDER ALERT!!
Someone from "the Outside" has wandered in by mistake, and provided a situation that may disturb and alarm some readers. Please clear your cache and try this new and improved version 2.0 situation:

You see that the microwave turntable isn't too cruddy, so life is good. While enjoying your Hot Pocket directly off the turntable (your "dinnerware"), you think about going out someplace in public, but that would require, like, cleaner clothing and washing and stuff, so back to the basement it is. Going out just makes things way too complicated.

---
? chr(07)

Re:My first prediction

[Anonymous Coward]

after a hacker turns on their stove.

Or a dentist switches on their toaster oven

Re:My first prediction

[GrantRobertson]

Exactly what I was going to say. All we need is hackable appliances. If you think some appliance repair outfits are scams now, just wait till they can shut down your appliances remotely. Most people are seriously uneducated about the common technology around them such as pilot lights and thermostats. It will be easy for businesses to sell contracts to "maintain" appliances and then randomly shut them down to prove that the contract was worth it. All the "repair" person will have to do is come out and pretend to do something while the their home office remotely turns the appliance back on. This charade will be used to convince people that they should keep renewing their contract regardless of how reliable their appliances may really be. I predict this will happen within one year of the time that at least 25% of appliances sold have this technology.

Re:My first prediction

[CreatureComfort]

You must be a blessed man. I tried this idea, and not only did she turn out not to be silent (far from it) but the on-going maintenance costs were way beyond what I thought the initial purchase price was going to be.

Even worse, the divorce and replacement costs would be enough to bankrupt me, so I'm stuck with this old model.

Re:My first prediction

[sexconker]

Or you could wash the dishes yourself.

Dishwashers suck. They always have, and they always will.
They never get dishes completely clean, you always have to pre-wash dishes, and you have to sort through things that are dishwasher safe and things that aren't.

Re:My first prediction

[encoderer]

You're lucky.

My mom would've just turned the dishwasher on as she left in the morning, woken me up, and STILL left a note "suggesting" that I get my lazy ass out back and cut the grass :)

Re:My first prediction

[Anonymous Coward]

3. Run back inside because there's a foot of snow on the ground.

Re:My first prediction

[Grygus]

If she's not running well it may be due to poor maintenance. Make sure there is no excess moisture collecting in the bottom; this will corrode her abilities eventually if left untended, and since it must be seen to eventually, you may well find someone else tending to it, creating undue costs to you.

If you have the means and/or tools, some will respond well to having their rack tightened a bit, which increases her appeal and useful life to you.

Re:My first prediction

[Grygus]

Plus I got to start the microwave before I came upstairs?

Re:My first prediction

[Abreu]

He meant a four-legged dishwasher, not a two-legged one...

Re:My first prediction

[RhythmStep]

Living in Phoenix, AZ, does complicate matters some...As I don't have a dryer, I was wondering how the internet would connect to my .... er... clothesline.

Futurology

[Anonymous Coward]

The earth is on the verge of a "significant extinction event."

That is so vague it means almost nothing. It could mean anything from one species going extinct to worldwide disaster.

Re:Futurology

[Pieisexaclty3]

Especially since it is already happening..... Holocene Extinction Event

Spam

[QuickFox]

Next-generation spam:

Nice house you've got there. Wouldn't it be sad if all the appliances suddenly went wild?

Re:Spam

[Anonymous Coward]

Forget spam, what's going to really suck is when even the dishwashers and air conditioners become sentient and start a war. I for one welcome our appliance overlords.

Re:Spam

[Kylere]

Hey! I watched that episode of Eureka! Err umm, did I admit that?

Re:Spam

[Fear the Clam]

Wouldn't it be sad if all the appliances suddenly went wild?

Red hot toaster ovens, blenders with the tops off, microwave ovens holding themselves wide open? Sign me up.

Re:Spam

[Hoi Polloi]

Sounds like the movie "Poltergeist"

Re:Spam

[bennomatic]

I think the GP was referring to something more like the stuff that happens every year at Lake Havasu.

Re:Spam

[PCeye]

We'll just have to wait until Joe Francis gets out of Reno jail to start this series...

Re:Spam

[DynamiteNeon]

You mean like Sexx Laws from Beck?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1w_ATXrHjU

Powering off automatically

[toddbu]

Any time anyone says that I can do something like power down appliances from my browser, I don't buy it. Either my appliances should be smart enough to power down on their own, or they should send me email telling me that it's time to shut them down. Polling for power consumption through a web site is pretty much a worthless idea.

Re:Powering off automatically

[walt-sjc]

Journalistic garbage is what it is.

This is not about controlling your dishwasher through a web browser. That's fucking stupid and everyone in the industry knows it's stupid. Unfortunately, things are dumbed down for the consumer to understand.

This is about automated energy management. Devices need to talk to each other and with the grid in order to be "smart". This allows energy suppliers and users to be able to manage / balance energy usage. But it's more than just energy usage - it's about devices that cooperate with each other. Your occupancy sensor works with the lighting and heating systems to keep people comfortable. They work with ambient light sensors and window blinds to keep the sun out when it is at a bad angle, or let let it in and power off / dim the overhead lights... You can come up with thousands of examples here...

Echelon in San Jose has been developing this technology for many years, as have others. It's secure and reliable. Hell - remote energy management has been desirable / SOP for at LEAST 15 years, where chain stores remote control heating / lighting from corporate headquarters. It's just that power-line network technology has gotten good and inexpensive enough to move into much smaller devices. No, this isn't X-10 crap, it uses 128 bit device ID's and is a full network protocol. I tossed all my X10 crap years ago as it was WAY too unreliable and devices were poor quality. Unfortunately, the good stuff hasn't really made it down to the consumer level yet.

Re:Powering off automatically

[stefanlasiewski]

Hey this stuff is great. Next time I leave my house and forget to turn off my television, I use my cell phone to turn off my home television while I'm away at the restaurant.

I have this dishwasher, and it turns off after the cycle is complete. It's AMAZING, and I don't even need to turn it off using a webbrowser. Sometimes, I can even set it to 'Air Dry' after the wash cycle.... without a cell phone. Incredible. ;)

Re:Powering off automatically

[jbengt]

Commercial/industrial/hospital installations are already commonly providing interfaces through the web browser. In a large system a remote interface can often avoid the time and expense of a trip to the site to turn on a system just because someone's having an off-hours meeting.

Although "powering down" an appliance doesn't have much utility on the face of it, it could be useful to be able to shut something down or turn it on from your browser when you're away. The common dumb example is to turn heating or cooling on an hour before you get home, so I guess maybe you could turn them off after you realize you're not going home yet.

More likely, you would be using the web interface because the system paged you or sent a text to your cell phone telling you that something went wrong. An e-mail woudn't be as useful, since it's less likely to get your attention in a timely fashion. If the temperature falls well below the setpoint, and you're on vacation, there might be a problem with your furnace or boiler. And it can be possible to set it up so you can do a little troubleshooting from the web, though more likely you'd call a neighbor or relative to check up on it.

Another situation that most people don't think of, but that does happen often enough to cause a lot of damage, is a wasing machine hose bursting and flodding the house. However, a better solution than monitoring that through the web is to shut the damn valves at the hose connection (you're supposed to do that every time you finish washing clothes, the hoses are prone to failure if left under pressure, but nobody, including me, does that.)

Still, there's a lot less call for this stuff in a single family home than in an industrial or commercial setting where a serviceman might be on call.

Re:Powering off automatically

[Anonymous Coward]

Are you kidding? I've been waiting for the ability to turn on my dishwasher from my cellphone for years!

Of course I'll still have to call my wife before hand and tell her to load the thing first...

Re:Powering off automatically

[Hoi Polloi]

Why would I want to control my lights remotely? Except maybe for a timer for security reasons when I'm away, otherwise I really don't need the lights on when I'm not there and if I'm there I can handle the light switch. If I can't remember to turn them off when I leave I'm not going to remember to find a wi-fi connection, logon to a website...

Re:Powering off automatically

[Blakey Rat]

I'm all for the concept, but right now my DishNetwork receiver box can't even talk to my DVR, which can't even talk to my TV, not even to ask simple questions like "are you turned on?" "What channel are you on?"

And that's a field where the benefits to the average consumer are obvious and immediate. Getting appliances to talk to each other is a pipe dream.

Re:Powering off automatically

[tylernt]

However, a better solution than monitoring that through the web is to shut the damn valves at the hose connection (you're supposed to do that every time you finish washing clothes, the hoses are prone to failure if left under pressure, but nobody, including me, does that.)

They have hoses with integral valves now. There is a reducer in the washer end to restrict the flow, and a spring loaded valve in the supply side. If there is low flow, the safety valve is open (to allow the washer to operate). If there is high flow (burst hose), the valve closes, stopping the flood. Won't help you with a slow leak but it's still an improvement.

There are also electric models that sit between the washer and the outlet. When it senses a current draw from the washer, it opens the solenoids to allow the water to flow. If the washer is off, the solenoids snap shut. This is safer but of course much more expensive.

Re:Powering off automatically

[Velcroman98]

I let the power company install a deal on my A/C, and they can cause it to not cycle on for short periods during high use. For this they give me a rate decrease for the summer months.

I can see the benefit along the same lines with dishwashers as well as clothes washing equipment. Perhaps you could time everything to not start untill 11:00 with out a web screen on your own, but how would the power company know?

I was reading about IP ovens; you can download recipes directly to it. I can see baker sof the future having compex step baking recipes.

A few companies have IP based thermostats - I'm waiting for the price to decrease to get one! http://www.smarthome.com/3053t.html.

Re:Powering off automatically

[Anonymous Coward]

"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser,"

Being able to do remote checks and control some appliances while away could be very useful. If you go on a trip, for example, you may begin wondering if you turned down the thermostat and/or turned off the stove/oven. Checking the water pump's (or flowmeter's) status can tell you if a pipe has burst. If you use oil or LP heat, you can check the fuel level.

The smart grid the power companies been talking about is a way to cause appliances to operate more on off-peak generation hours and less during peak hours. There is a shortage of generation capability in much of the US (or there will be), but if energy usage can be transferred to off-peak hours, infrastructure costs are much less.

Power companies already have plans to install "smart" meters that will be able to interface with appliances directly in order to power them up or down based on time of use, and charge you less for power used during off-peak hours.

One really big downside of this whole idea of "smart meters" is that some unscrupulous government (are there any scrupulous ones?) could install a wall-mounted "smart meter" outside your home that could have the capability to eavesdrop on private conversations inside, sending out private info, possibly over the powerline.

Re:Powering off automatically

[rodrigo1979]

I agree with the parent above

I work in the HVAC/Building Automation/Energy Management field and can tell you that the application of the future is Automated demand response.
One of our customers is now signed up on a program with SCE. On set days during the summer months when energy demand is expected to go higher than normal, we receive a signal over the Internet to a box with an integrated relay. Upon receiving this signal our web-based EMS system initiates a sequence for demand response by shutting off lighting circuits, as well as shifting cooling setpoints up by 3 degrees during a 6 hour period.
The whole idea is to reduce peak demand usage.

I don't see any of this reaching the residential consumer anytime soon.

In CA, check out the energy demand outlook for the day here:
http://www.caiso.com/outlook/outlook.html

Also check out Tridium's website (developers of the Niagara framework)
http://www.tridium.com/

This is a great industry to be in, specially now with everyone going "Green" and energy prices going up.
However, you need to understand A/C, Electrical, and IT. Control systems have come a long way.

Re:Powering off automatically

[Anonymous Coward]

Xcel Energy in the Denver area offers such a device for air conditioners. They install a device on your air conditioner with your approval (you have to request it). That device will then cycle the air conditioner during the hottest part of the day. I assume this gives them some control to avoid brownouts. They claim it saves you money (which it will) and even give you a credit on your first bill after you have it installed and that you really won't notice it working. I always assumed it would just cycle the compressor more than it would normally do, but I have heard some people say that their air conditioners shut off for long periods of time. I have not really noticed it a whole lot but I'm not at home most of the time during the day.

Re:Powering off automatically

[walt-sjc]

Getting energy using devices talking to each other is a reality. It's here today. Just not at the consumer level with VERY few exceptions. But it's growing.

The consumer electronics industry on the other hand is a lost cause. They refuse to work together for competitive reasons. Worse, they refuse to be compatible with themselves. Just have to look at the IR mess to see that. And RF remote control? Hahahaha!! I won't see any standards there in my lifetime, that's for sure. Even with they DO come up with a standard, it sucks (like HDMI, which has severe length limits. It should have been an optical cable from day one. It would have been cheaper and easier. Idiots.)

Re:Powering off automatically

[flappinbooger]

"They" say that the technology found in the Mercedes S class sedans is always a forecast of the tech that will be found in the mundane sedans a few years down the road. The S class had ABS, stability control, air bag, cruise, all that stuff well before the chevys did.

I can tell you that the rich people (the people who don't really ask how much it costs, ever) like to have things Just So. They are particular. They like it when the house is ready for them when they get there. Because, they have more than one, and they are too busy to be bothered by the mundane things like adjusting the AC, finding the remote, turning on ALL of the lights in the house at the right time (because there are so many, you see). No, they need to have the AC set to the right temp before they get there. They want to pull out their PDA on their private jet and control things over the interweb while on the way there. They want *A* button to push when they walk in that will turn on the TV, and the TV signal better be nice and clear.

Home automation is big in the house equivalents of the Mercedes S Class, and in a few years it will be "standard" on the chevy houses as well. And, I've seen articles that many of the new houses built during the recent real estate boom had a lot of options like that available. Many were built with it on spec, which drove up the prices on a wide scale.

My opinion? Home automation will largely involve sensors that can tell when people are in the room or not, and it will adjust lighting, heating and AC accordingly, and automatically. It will involve a VAV type HVAC system that can cut off individual rooms and shunt energy only where it is needed. It will save a lot of energy and do things we all know we should but cant, wont, or don't remember to. Closing drapes on the east side of the house in the morning, on the west side in the afternoon. Cuts heat load. etc.

Re:Powering off automatically

[hoggoth]

> Hey this stuff is great. Next time I leave my house and forget to turn off my television, I use my cell phone to turn off my home television while I'm away at the restaurant.

This stuff really IS great! Next time YOU leave your house I will use MY cellphone to turn everything on in your home while youre away at the restaurant. And I'll turn your TV off while your are watching it. I can't wait!

Re:Powering off automatically

[BiggerIsBetter]

This is not about controlling your dishwasher through a web browser. That's fucking stupid and everyone in the industry knows it's stupid. Unfortunately, things are dumbed down for the consumer to understand.

Hold on there cowboy, some of the consumers of which you speak is right here on this website. Dumbing it down for guys like us is a really bad idea... for that matter, calling us "consumers" is a pretty bad idea too. Anyway, I was going to post something about the (lack of) need to talk to the grid, because I don't like the idea of the supplier "managing" my usage... but I guess being able to request current rates from them is useful. The grid querying aside (and that part might be doable with some screen scraping via their websites), there's nothing here that can't be done with off-the-shelf components and some clever embedded computing.

Re:Powering off automatically

[jbengt]

Solenoids I've done before (I design HVAC. plumbing and fire protection for a living). A large retail chain, who prefers to remain anonymous, used to mandate solenoids on all of their display models. (yeah, they used to have actual working models on display)
The spring loaded valves I've never heard of before; interesting, I wonder how well they'd hold up in my home with the hard well water.

Re:Powering off automatically

[walt-sjc]

Do you live in a home or apartment? Do you buy stuff? Then you are a consumer. Deal with it. Can't help that you don't like the label - you are what you are. I'm not the one dumbing things down - thank the media and PR people. Allowing the utility company to manage your large energy loads could qualify you for lower rates. That sound good? You can always opt to pay more - that's your choice. There is nothing being forced on you. This is good thing.

The actual article...

[Anonymous Coward]

Yay for the editors linking to a blog ...that links to IBM's actual site.

IBM Reveals Five Innovations that Will Change Our Lives Over the Next Five Years
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/22683.wss

Re:The actual article...

[Anonymous Coward]

I always get modded a flamebit when I bring this up. Torture of being AC.

Infrastructure, anyone?

[Bieeanda]

Smart roads, smart power grids, massively cross-indexed medical files... it may sound good on paper (and I would debate that in some cases), but who is going to rip up their extant traffic light systems, or rewire their house (let alone a city grid) for that kind of functionality?

Who's going to provide this functionality, for that matter? Will we end up with a dozen mutually incompatible systems, and what happens when we want to upgrade what's already been half installed?

Re:Infrastructure, anyone?

[rminsk]

... or rewire their house (let alone a city grid) for that kind of functionality? Southern California Edison is already doing this with SmartConnect. They plan on replacing 5 million electric meters between 2009 and 2012.

SCE's new meters will also be able to "talk" through home area networks, providing customers with near real-time energy use and cost information to enable energy conservation. The Edison SmartConnect system has the ability to provide the information from the meter into the home through a two-way wireless interface allowing customers to immediately see how their actions affect usage. The result is expected to increase sustained energy conservation that will reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and smog-forming pollutants by a minimum of 365,000 metric tons per year -- the equivalent of removing 66,000 cars from the road.

Re:Infrastructure, anyone?

[QuickFox]

Who's going to provide this functionality, for that matter? Let's hope it's not Microsoft, or rewiring the traffic lights won't be enough, they'll also need to add lamps — red to stop, yellow to pay attention, green to go ahead, and Blue Light Of Death on system crash.

Re:Infrastructure, anyone?

[Wooloomooloo]

A mod point, a mod point, my kingdom for a mod point!

Re:Infrastructure, anyone?

[Warbothong]

Who's going to provide it?

Well let me see, I wonder if IBM would publish a report (advertise) research only being worked on by their rivals?

Re:Infrastructure, anyone?

[stewbacca]

Interesting you mention Microsoft. I was considering buying the Ford Focus because of the cool multimedia control thingy, until I saw the ad on tv saying it is "Powered by Microsoft".

Re:Infrastructure, anyone?

[sexconker]

I have Focus (2003, without the fancy audio system) - give one (a 2008) a test drive.

I've had no real problems with mine yet. The only thing I don't like is the fact that it's not really a smooth ride (since it's a small car). I've also got some sort of rattling going on due to something being loose in the back (I think it's the back window).

Re:Infrastructure, anyone?

[stewbacca]

Off topic, but I like a good car conversation. The new Focus seems to suffer from "Americanization". The old Focus was actually a really good car, because like most good Fords, it was bred from Ford UK. I just moved from the UK and the second gen Focus is NOTHING like the US Spec 2nd gen Focus. I read somewhere that the 2nd gen US Focus has lost all the soul and detail that made the first one such a big hit with car enthusiasts and Soccer Mom's alike.

I would pay $10k extra for the new Mondeo (as seen in the latest Bond movie) if they'd only sell it in the US market. I currently drive a 99 SVT Contour, so that would be the perfect replacement for the best car I've ever owned.

Re:Infrastructure, anyone?

[T.E.D.]

Who's going to provide this functionality, for that matter?

Let's hope it's not Microsoft, or rewiring the traffic lights won't be enough, they'll also need to add lamps -- red to stop, yellow to pay attention, green to go ahead, and Blue Light Of Death on system crash.

It would be Yellow for go and Green for stop. Who cares if drivers have been using other colors for the same thing for years? These are Microsoft roads. The best way to solve any confusion would be to get rid of all those "legacy" roads and standardize on Microsoft.

What about that third color for changing from "go" to "stop", some might ask? There never was such a color! There may be some old "road geeks" who used such a thing, but *real* roads don't work that way. You don't need it anyway, as you can kinda tell when its about to change. The new animated signals take several seconds (on current equipment) to implode and rotate away the "go" signal and explode and rotate out the "stop".

Perhaps in 5 years or so they will introduce a third transitional color (probably orange) to tell you when a stop signal is about to change to a go. If you want to know the reverse, you can crane your neck around and look a the signal 90 degrees from yours. That will work most of the time.

I didn't read TFA, but I know...

[Anonymous Coward]

I've been told by everyone that in 2015
1) it will be the year of the Linux Desktop
2) I will have a flying car
3) My food will be super dehydrated pills
4) Holo-sex will be rampant
5) Google/Microsoft/RIAA will still be suing single pregnant grandmothers who don't have computers

Every component smart, but one

[dotancohen]

While these "smart grids" and "smart phones" and "smart appliances" are getting smarter, the idiot behind the wheel or at the keyboard is getting dumber and more pampered by the minute. We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades. And no, I didn't read TFA, I'm too smart for that.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Unoti]

We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades

You're probably right, but it's not really a bad thing. I can sure type faster and program computers better than my grandfather could. Don't think of humans in isolation. Think of them in combination with their technology. We may be wimpier in many ways compared to our ancestors. But if you make the comparison including our current technologies then we're advancing quite rapidly. We have longer life expectancy due to medical technology and better knowledge of health and nutrition. If you think of humans in a broad sense that includes knowledge and technology, then our progress as a race is stunning. We're better in countless ways now than we were just a short time ago, and getting better faster than we ever have before.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[BeanThere]

Technology itself can solve this problem in the form of sophisticated genetic manipulation, i.e. it won't be long before we'll be implanting Chuck Norris genes into our offspring - problem solved.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[philntc]

Don't think of humans in isolation. Think of them in combination with their technology.

Yes, but all those advances are only maintained due to external factors. Take away the technology or limit it in some way (think scarcer cheap energy), and all of a sudden we take several steps backwards.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[mcsqueak]

While these "smart grids" and "smart phones" and "smart appliances" are getting smarter, the idiot behind the wheel or at the keyboard is getting dumber and more pampered by the minute. Yes, I'd agree and can see this coming... its exactly what I thought when I saw that ad for the Lexus that can parallel park itself. HELLO! I don't want to be driving on the same roads as people who cannot parallel park for themselves. Drivers are bad enough as it is, already...

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Daniel Dvorkin]

We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades.

Humans haven't "function[ed] as an independent species" since cavemen first chipped tools out of flint. Technology is what makes us human beings rather than just rather weak, slow, hairless apes.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Blakey Rat]

Fortunately, there are still vast tracts of barren forests for you. Why don't you just check out, burn all your artificially-created clothes, and live the hunter-gatherer lifestyle in the great Canadian north?

Re:Every component smart, but one

[dotancohen]

Careful, he might sue you for that.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[dotancohen]

And then I would get my pron exactly how?

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Boronx]

Hello, human, your only advantage over other animals is technology, and it's always been that way.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[chawly]

It is much too cold !

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Kjella]

We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades. I'd be the first to admit that in a primitive hunter-gatherer society, my skillset would be essentially worthless and I'd probably die a quick death from inexperience. That said, there's a huge difference between what you're taught and what your innate abilities are. Place any newborn child with a primitive tribe in the Amazon, and I doubt he'll do much differently than the natives. If we really needed to, there'd be no problem reverting to a more primitive society. While we wait for the apocalypse, I'll continue to improve the skillset that is meaningful today. Call me if we start losing limbs or become unable to eat unprocessed food or anything that really amounts to dependence on machines.

P.S. Have you seen the manuals for those "smart" gizmos? It's not exactly my impression that they become easier to operate. In fact, we're pretty much eliminating everything that's simple leaving people to only do complex work. I think a lot of people long for the days when you could chop wood all day with an axe and call it work. Can't do that today, you need a bunch of machines unless you want a wage measured in cents instead of dollars.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Jataro]

Think of them in combination with their technology. Exactly! You reminded me of a great book I just finished reading, How Life Imiatates Chess, by chess Grandmaster Garry Kasparov. He describes how a couple of amateurs were able to beat some of the best players in the game (who also had computers).
From the book: Their skill at manipulating and "coaching" their computers to look deeply into positions effectively counteracted the superior understanding of their Grandmaster opponents.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Anonymous Coward]

We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades.

I like having my pussy whipped, you insensitive clod! (Yah, I'm female. And posting on Slashdot. And into BDSM. Imagine that!)

Re:Every component smart, but one

[dotancohen]

(972)54-788-1700 You've obviously been reading my Facebook profile.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[stewbacca]

...and those thumb-like thingies on the ends of our arms.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[The name is Dave. Ja]

Compared with other species, I think that some humans have better cognitive abilities and communication skills. Even if we lose the technology, we can still dream about it and discuss it on Slashdot.

--
Why does "lose" look wrong now?

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Trogre]

I think that has to be the stupidest comment I've ever read on /.

And I was here through the All Your Base and 1337-5p34k eras.

Re:Every component smart, but one

[Boronx]

Yours, out of the hundreds of "stupidest post ever" comments that appear daily, is far and away the best I've ever read.

Five years or decades?

[Original Replica]

The company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly

Yeah the theoretical technology might exist, but major improvements to the national infrastructure will take decades to implement.

"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid,

Again this require a major improvement to parts of the infrastructure. On top of that, my parents already own all the appliances they want, they will not likely get many new ones anytime in the next five years. Maybe an HDTV.

For example, phones will enable users to snap a photo of an article of clothing, pull in results from the Web about the brand and where to buy it, and then render the garment on top of a 3-D image of the user, IBM said.

Many stores I have been in do not let you photograph the merchandise, if you can suddenly comparison shop the goods in any given store I can only see that policy getting stronger.

This article sounds more like "The World of Tomorrow" than something I would expect out of a respected technology company.

Re:Five years or decades?

[uniquename72]

The company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly
Yeah the theoretical technology might exist, but major improvements to the national infrastructure will take decades to implement. Agreed. They can't even get the lights timed properly where I live; it's unlikely that any vehicle/roadway interfacing will happen anytime soon.

And smart appliances? This has been predicted as an up & coming technology since the early '80s, and I still haven't thought of (or read of) a decent reason for it.

Re:Five years or decades?

[Grishnakh]

Agreed. They can't even get the lights timed properly where I live; it's unlikely that any vehicle/roadway interfacing will happen anytime soon.

I don't think it'll ever happen, for two possible reasons:

1) Traffic engineers are utterly incompetent, as a rule. (Any traffic engineers reading this? This means YOU! You suck!) I've never seen well-timed lights, in any American city I've lived in or visited, on either side of the continent. It's not that the technology doesn't exist; it does: sensor-based lights are all over the place, which can sense the amount of traffic. But do they put this to good use? Of course not. There actually used to be a time, before "smart lights", when traffic lights were timed in relation to each other, so drivers on a main thoroughfare could travel along at the speed limit, theoretically, and rarely have to stop for cross traffic. Then, they came along and put in "smart lights" so that we'd supposedly never stop for nonexistent cross-traffic, but instead, every time a single car pulls up, it throws off all the traffic on the main road. Again, complete incompetence on the part of the traffic engineers. They should have stuck with a system where the lights were timed in relation to each other, but the presence or absence of traffic on cross-streets merely modified this behavior to be more efficient, by adding or subtracting cycles for the cross-traffic. How hard is that? They've had decades to figure this out, and they haven't.

2) Traffic engineers might not be that bad, but they're implementing stupid rules required by local governments whose real interest is not traffic safety and efficiency, but rather revenue from traffic tickets. This is probably getting much worse due to modern "red-light cameras", which give tickets to drivers running red lights. Many people have noted that many lights, when they had these revenue generators installed, suddenly got MUCH shorter yellow lights, obviously in order to increase revenue. Of course, the traffic engineers are still to blame if they implement this; "I was just following orders" ceased to be an acceptable excuse at the Nuremburg Trials, after all, and since many people die at intersections each year, these engineers aren't just to blame for a lack of efficiency, but actual deaths, which in my view makes them eligible for the death penalty.

Re:Five years or decades?

[Grishnakh]

And smart appliances? This has been predicted as an up & coming technology since the early '80s, and I still haven't thought of (or read of) a decent reason for it.

I haven't, either. One supposed application is a refrigerator that keeps track of your foods, and lets you know when, for example, you're low on milk or eggs. I'm not sure how this is possible, however, without rather advanced sensor systems which would be quite costly. It's not as simple as using RFID; this would work if you had a freezer full of frozen dinners, but it doesn't work for things like milk and eggs since you normally buy these in large packages, not one tiny quantity at a time. I'm not going to start buying 8-ounce packages of milk and individually-packaged eggs just to enjoy the benefits of automatic tracking, as this would certainly increase cost a lot. Last time I checked, gallon jugs of milk are still the preferred package, even though smaller containers are available.

Appliances have certainly improved a lot in the past quarter-century, however. Refrigerators, a big power consumer in the home, now consume much less power than before, even though newer models are typically much larger than older ones, providing more storage space. Washing machines are now mostly horizontal-axis, and use far less water than older models, and get clothes cleaner. Dishwashers use less water. Electric ovens have glass top ranges with burners which heat up far faster than before, and are far easier to clean than the nasty old Cal-rod burners, and ovens have far more accurate, digitally-controlled thermostats.

But none of these advances seem to require any ability of the machines to communicate with the outside world in any way. They just allow the devices to do their same old jobs in a faster and/or more efficient way.

Re:Five years or decades?

[timeOday]

The infrastructure for most of it already exists; all you need is a pervasive wireless data network, which cellphones have now provided.

Infrastructure aside, we do need smarter clients; more gps-aware cellphones (so I can be warned before taking a route where all the cars are moving slowly), and other connected appliances (so my AC will shut off when I'm over 2 miles away from home, or I can punch a button telling my car I want the seats to be nice and warm in 5 minutes). It's more a problem of company policy than infrastructure. Fortunately, the cellphone networks seem to be opening up. Perhaps in another couple of years it will seem entirely natural to have a clients other than cellphones (e.g. thermostats, cars, whatever) on them.

I do think "virtually" trying on clothes is a dumb idea and will never catch on.

Re:Five years or decades?

[proudfoot]

http://xkcd.com/277/
Oh really. Tell me, what do you know about traffic?

Re:Five years or decades?

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm not going to start buying 8-ounce packages of milk and individually-packaged eggs just to enjoy the benefits of automatic tracking, as this would certainly increase cost a lot. Last time I checked, gallon jugs of milk are still the preferred package, even though smaller containers are available.

Nice rant. Of course, it would be TOTALLY impossible for a smart fridge to have specially designed compartments liter or gallon-sized with scales that would measure the weight and use it to tell the level. It would be a COMPLETE and fascist invasion of your privacy to force you to place your milk in said designated area, how DARE they tell YOU how to do stuff? This is a FREE COUNTRY! And it is such an insurmountable task to take the eggs out of the fucking 24-piece package and just transfer them to the purpose-built container inside the fridge so it can track availability. Oh, the CHORE! The insufferable loss of productivity, Oh those WHOLE TWO MINUTES GONE FOREVER, NEVER TO RETURN! What a fucking, whiny moron.

Re:Five years or decades?

[Mike610544]

phones will enable users to snap a photo of an article of clothing, pull in results from the Web about the brand and where to buy it, and then render the garment on top of a 3-D image of the user

Bullshit. Unless I missed a memo, image recognition is nowhere near this. Also, who's building the 3D models for the garments? Isn't this the same industry that's paying Malaysian kids 7 cents a day to manufacture their products? And where do I get the 3D model of me to "render the garment on top of?"

Although to be fair, I guess by the time this technology's viable I could just check out how it looks on Duke Nukem Forever...

Re:Five years or decades?

[Anonymous Coward]

(Any traffic engineers reading this? This means YOU! You suck!)

An alternate conclusion is that you underestimate the difficulties.

Re:Five years or decades?

[clare-ents]

Smart appliances are smart regarding their energy consumption.

Suppose you had a smart fridge that could read data from the power socket about the availability of power. A signal arrives that indicates a glut of power (it's got windy and the wind farms output has shot up). The spot price of electricity falls and your fridge switches on the compressor and cools the inside to 1C down from it's normal 4-5C. The temperature gets as low as 2C inside the fridge when a new signal arrives - there's a power shortage, the wind has stopped blowing and the nuclear plant down the road has shut down unexpectedly.

Scale this up to country-wide levels. The UK has 25 million households. With a fridge and a freezer each @ 300W each, that's 7.5GW of electricity consumption that can be switched off for hours at a time if there's a shortage of electricity. Add on all the commerical cold storage, all the datacentres & hospitals that can use diesel and drop off the grid if there's a shortage of electricity and a bit of pumped storage and you're quickly going to get to 10GW of the 50GW in use in the UK. If you can switch off 1/5th of the grids demand automatically suddenly unreliable wind power & solar power stops looking so problematic to use. Start bringing in massive amounts of battery storage in the form of electric cars and renewable 'unreliable' power sources really start making sense.

The beneficiaries of this are the environment, the power companies, the smart device manufacturers and eventually your wallet.

Re:Five years or decades?

[Anonymous Coward]

An alternate conclusion is that you underestimate the difficulties.

Yes, that's also a possibility. But it's not really a very convincing one, in the absence of any supporting evidence giving details of these alleged difficulties.

I've seen a handful of well-designed roads, and a shitload of roads that were very poorly designed in comparison. Is it really unreasonable for me to conclude that there are a handful of competent traffic engineers and a shitload of incompetents?

Re:Five years or decades?

[Anonymous Coward]

Of course, it would be TOTALLY impossible for a smart fridge to have specially designed compartments liter or gallon-sized with scales that would measure the weight and use it to tell the level. It would be a COMPLETE and fascist invasion of your privacy to force you to place your milk in said designated area

It would be a bit of a waste of valuable fridge space for those of us who are lactose-intolerant and therefore do not purchase milk at all, while also being somewhat inadequate for those with large families who purchase more than a gallon at a time.

And it is such an insurmountable task to take the eggs out of the fucking 24-piece package and just transfer them to the purpose-built container inside the fridge so it can track availability.

24? You get 24 eggs at a time? I never have more than 6 at a time. I don't see what's "smart" about having 18 empty egg slots and nowhere to put my lettuce.

Basically, a fridge of the sort you describe would be perfect for anyone whose buying habits are identical to the designer's. Making it flexible and modular would cause the cost to rocket. I really don't see it working very well. Likewise, there are no major problems with the current technology, in which each week I open the fridge, look inside, observe what I'm running low on, and write a shopping list. Oh, the CHORE! The insufferable loss of productivity, Oh those WHOLE TWO MINUTES GONE FOREVER, NEVER TO RETURN! Oh, sorry, wait a minute, that was your line, wasn't it?

Nice rant, though.

Re:Five years or decades?

[umghhh]

That the described change is pointless and superfluous is true but it will not stop it happening. The eggs holder example is perfect - I know nobody that uses it but they still get made and sold. You cannot opt them out.

Re:Five years or decades?

[stewbacca]

2) Traffic engineers might not be that bad, but they're implementing stupid rules required by local governments whose real interest is not traffic safety and efficiency, but rather revenue from traffic tickets.

We have a winner!

Re:Five years or decades?

[Anonymous Coward]

You are quite correct, that would be an excellent use of "smart appliances". Having a minute to minute change in pricing for each kilowatt is going to be a necessary to create the financial incentive needed for wide scale adoption. I don't know about the UK, but my electric bill (in NYC) has a flat rate for every kilowatt used in a month. My meter is analog and only gets actually checked about once every six months. That or have a government mandate that require such powergrid sensing tech in all new refrigerators.

Re:Five years or decades?

[rah1420]

I've never seen well-timed lights, in any American city I've lived in or visited, on either side of the continent.

Ahem, I beg to differ. Ocean City, MD has some of the best timed lights I've seen. Sitting at a red light you can watch them flick, flick, flick green all the way down Coastal Highway, and you can go many blocks before you start seeing them flick yellow/red, yellow/red, yellow/red in your rear view mirror.

There's no modification for the absence of cross traffic but these engineers did the timing very well.

Of course, nothing will help you on a Saturday afternoon when the rentals are both emptying and filling and the traffic is more or less quadrupled in the town. However, during the balance of the week it generally only takes you about 4 or 5 red light 'cycles' to drive from, say, 100th street down to the inlet -- if driving is your cup of tea.

Re:Five years or decades?

[Grishnakh]

That's odd; recent refrigerators I've seen don't have egg holders, including my current large side-by-side model.

Re:Five years or decades?

[Grishnakh]

Ahem, I beg to differ. Ocean City, MD has some of the best timed lights I've seen. Sitting at a red light you can watch them flick, flick, flick green all the way down Coastal Highway, and you can go many blocks before you start seeing them flick yellow/red, yellow/red, yellow/red in your rear view mirror.

There's no modification for the absence of cross traffic but these engineers did the timing very well.

Yep, that's the way a lot of places used to be before the introduction of "smart lights". The problem with this, as you noted, is that there's no modification for increased or decreased cross-traffic. For instance, what if it's 2AM and you're the only car out? You have to stop and wait at intersections just because the light is timed that way, even though there's no one there. This is what smart lights were invented to overcome. What you have there is just simple, static, light timing; the lights don't actually communicate with each other at all. That's 1930s technology at best. Of course, as you noted, it actually works better at many times than other places with modern "smart lights" in place which frequently serve to make the traffic worse, but it still doesn't show any great competence on the part of the traffic engineers in utilizing the latest technology to improve traffic conditions.

Re:Five years or decades?

[umghhh]

You must have purchased a special model for people allergic to eggs.

Re:Five years or decades?

[Anonymous Coward]

Now I'm certain that I was right. You have no clue.

How many computers?

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

So, according to IBM, there will be demand for how many computers? seven or eight?

Flying cars too!

[thanatos_x]

I have no doubt that some of these things will come to pass, but within 5 years? Nope, sorry.

1. We'll be able to track produce, and every detail of it of where it's been, etc. - This would require a database and some ID tag (likely RFID) or an Read/Write tag and no database. Currently these are too expensive to have seen widespread use in larger goods, and despite predictions that they're just around the corner, they've been unable to lower the price past a certain point. RFID will happen, but it won't happen this fast.

2. Smart Networks - This requires a significant investment in infrastructure, and it would seem, smart cars. This is something that may start within 5 years, but only cars made past a certain date will actually be 'smart', and until a certain percentage is 'smart' there's not much use for the system (possibly reducing the motivation for investment in the non-car infrastructure, though GPS/Onstar type services may provide enough incentive. Still it won't be here in 5 years.

3. Cell phones - Stupid example. I don't need to know what clothing will look like on me in 3d, and this seems like an application that would be horrible on cell phones, even with advances in computer technology. It MIGHT happen in Asian countries, as they tend to have more advanced cell phones and seem to enjoy odd tech things that don't catch on well in the US (vending machines, etc)

4. Smart Devices are over-rated. Until you can easily access your computer from your cell phone, this won't be down the road 5 years. Yes I'm sure you can do it, but it's not common, certainly not on non-smart phones.

5. Doctors - It'll happen, medicine will advance, but i don't think we'll see any amazing changes. Admittedly I know little about this field, but I haven't heard anything huge inventions lately that will revolutionize the field.

Re:Flying cars too!

[Hoi Polloi]

Even the act of eating will take on new meaning, in IBM's view: "You will know everything from the climate and soil the food was grown in, to the pesticides and pollution it was exposed to, to the energy consumed to create the product, to the temperature and air quality of the shipping containers it traveled through on the way to your dinner table."

Ummmm, it says here that it was grown in soil high in magnesium sulfate, used 5kwh to grow and get here, was stored at 45F, and was in shipping container X458GDFR. That's great. Assuming the data isn't bogus, what the hell do I do with that? Now I've lost my appetite.

Computers will also be able to compare your health data to an ocean's worth of other patient records, helping with diagnosis and treatment, the company said.

You appear to have a 95% match to pancreatic cancer and a 0% match to any cure.

Re:Flying cars too!

[Anonymous Coward]

"4. Smart Devices are over-rated."

Speak for yourself, google, cell phones, cpu's, windows, etc, are all "smart devices" (off load tasks that once had to be done manually by people).

Most people can't budget very well so I think it's more a matter of smart apps on those 'smart devices', sooner or later devices and apps will merge in complex ways where one wonders where the device ends and the application begins. Personally automation is already happening at an incredible rate, as soon as AI becomes advanced enough, many aspects of your life *will* be managed by software that is much smarter then you and much faster then your mind can handle at any one time, that's the whole purpose of our technology: To offload and speed up tasks our minds are not specialized for, we design devices specialized *for just said task*, so that we can spend more time doing other things.

Re:Flying cars too!

[thanatos_x]

I agree. However I don't need a smart phone that can take a picture of a piece of clothing and then put it on me in 3d; either it'll look like crap (and be useless) or the technology is very good (at which point there are far better uses than visualizing me in the latest fashions.)

Also as the article talked about being able to turn on or shut off appliances over the internet. I want some semblance of intelligence so that the AC can set itself to different temperatures depending on the outside temp, the day and the time. Yes being able to manually control things over the internet would be an improvement, but in general people would rather have it done automatically, as your post implies.

Re:Flying cars too!

[Anonymous Coward]

4. Smart Devices are over-rated. Until you can easily access your computer from your cell phone, this won't be down the road 5 years. Yes I'm sure you can do it, but it's not common, certainly not on non-smart phones.

Allow me to introduce you to Linux MCE
Here, have a look at what it'll do
Yes, bluetooth operation via cellphone is an option.

Last Year's Five in Five

[Darkforge]

Looks like they've got four more years to make these come true:
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/us/five_in_five/010807/index.shtml

• We will be able to access healthcare remotely, from just about anywhere in the world
  
• Real-time speech translation -- once a vision only in science fiction -- will become the norm
  
• There will be a 3-D Internet
  
• Technologies the size of a few atoms will address areas of environment importance
  
• Our mobile phones will come close to reading our minds
  

Re:Last Year's Five in Five

[Grishnakh]

When did IBM start making these 5-year predictions? I'd like to see 2002's predictions. They probably predicted flying cars.

Re:Last Year's Five in Five

[Patrik_AKA_RedX]

Real-time speech translation

As in Babelfish combined with speech recognition and syntisizing?

For some reason I see this leading to a series of very confusing diplomatic incidents.

Re:Last Year's Five in Five

[moro_666]

Hey dude, it's here already

• We will be able to access healthcare remotely, from just about anywhere in the world
        -- i get get-a-bigger-penis pill commercials every day, everywhere, from everywhere, and this is healthcare, kind of
  
  
• Real-time speech translation -- once a vision only in science fiction -- will become the norm
        -- i call over skype with my girlfriend, and i don't understand anything, something gets lost in the translation ...
  
  
• There will be a 3-D Internet
        -- 3 f-n words: WoW
  
  
• Technologies the size of a few atoms will address areas of environment importance
        -- see comment #1
  
  
• Our mobile phones will come close to reading our minds
        -- happening all the time (neither of them is doing anything lately).
  

oh please...

[apodyopsis]

..spare me this drivel.

somebody please give me an example of why I should ever want to control my dishwasher from my phone or my web browser.

the only intelligence I want in my gadgets it on the lines of smart machines that can detect the load and vary the power consumption and resource usage accordingly. possibly the only interaction I would want is a little minimalist chime to alert me that the cycle or current operation has finished and some human interaction is needed.

*everything* else should work behind the scenes to my benefit to save power or alert me when the washing powder is running low.

interaction by web browser? what utter rot. I would say "whatever next, a fridge with a built in web browser?" but I remember talk of such stuff a few years ago...

Re:oh please...

[madsenj37]

Lets just hope we have the option to turn external communication off.

Re:oh please...

[m1ndrape]

i rather have self-cleaning clothes and kitchen ware than a "intelligent" dishwasher/laundry machine.

Re:oh please...

[fred fleenblat]

one thing i would like in my nifty smart dishwasher is a light bulb.

most of my other kitchen appliances have a light that illuminates the interior when the door is open and i'd like one for my dishwasher too, kthxbai.

Re:oh please...

[Anonymous Coward]

Better go for CF or LED as the incandescent if heading out in the US (although they will probably push back that 2012 date just like they pushed the date for getting rid of Analog TV broadcast).

Re:oh please...

[Anonymous Coward]

It would be funny to hook up some web cams, and turn on or off appliances when people are trying to use them.

Re:oh please...

[m1ndrape]

you got till 2012 to use an incandescent bulb :)

Re:oh please...

[glwtta]

somebody please give me an example of why I should ever want to control my dishwasher from my phone or my web browser.

I would love to be able to do that! Of course I'm assuming I will also be able to collect my dirty dishes off the living room floor, drag them to the kitchen, and load the said dishwasher, all from my browser.

Otherwise, it seems kinda useless...

Re:oh please...

[MobileTatsu-NJG]

"somebody please give me an example of why I should ever want to control my dishwasher from my phone or my web browser."

MMmmm well I have a suggestion. If the devices in my house were to measure their power usage, then connect via wi-fi to the net, I could use my browser to figure out which appliance(s) is/are costing me the most per month.

That may not entice you much, but I've had roommates that didn't think they were the cause of the expensive utilities.

Re:oh please...

[dan the person]

exactly. When i want to turn my dishwasher on is just after i have finished filling it. It is far more convenient to press the start button on the machine than to go and find my laptop. As for powering down, it should do that once it's finished, simple.

the only intelligence I want in my gadgets it on the lines of smart machines that can detect the load and vary the power consumption and resource usage accordingly

fisher and paykel have been making washing machines like that for decades.

Re:oh please...

[Viceroy Potatohead]

interaction by web browser? what utter rot. I would say "whatever next, a fridge with a built in web browser?" but I remember talk of such stuff a few years ago... Unfortunately, that dark day is basically here. We can be a pretty absurd species, that's for sure. What we really need are Bluetooth enabled underwear, then they could let our cellphones know when we sh*t ourselves. Or maybe scissors with routers, that would also be nice.

Re:oh please...

[klagermkii]

If you wanted to do that couldn't you just buy something like a Kill-A-Watt, and measure it simply like that. Sounds like a much better option that going to the trouble and expense of embedding a web server and wifi connection into each appliance, without any guarantee that said embedded web-server would even be able to monitor power usage.

Re:oh please...

[MobileTatsu-NJG]

"If you wanted to do that couldn't you just buy something like a Kill-A-Watt, and measure it simply like that."

It wouldn't be the same. You can only measure one appliance at a time with that. That would actually be almost entirely useless based on the example I gave. You're right, though, they'd actually have to include that feature. But I can dream, can't I?

one species+significant

[someone1234]

One species? Guess you mean the one species would be humankind then :)

Mod Parent Up

[maillemaker]

I agree entirely. If I have to tell my appliances how to behave, then it is /I/ who am smart, not the appliance.

Smart would be if I set a monthly power budget and all my appliances figure out together how to best achieve their jobs within that budget.

Re:Mod Parent Up

[Anonymous Coward]

do not follow "story about people like you" link in parent article.
it's the goatse thing

Re:Mod Parent Up

[Gorobei]

Agreed.

Designing a good dishwasher is pretty damn simple, and cellphones are definitely not involved.

1. It should have a button marked "WASH" - that causes the dishes to get washed. That's the whole point of the fucking machine.
2. For extra credit, it can have a button marked "WASH CHEAPLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS" - I can understand that, and might press it before going to work some days.
3. It should have a big hole in the top where I can pour several pounds of dishwashing detergent. When it starts running low, it could even have a light that says "PLEASE ADD MORE DETERGENT."

I'll wait for the iDishwaher.

Re:Mod Parent Up

[bblgun]

Polling for power consumption through a web site is pretty much a worthless idea..

I agree with most of what both posts said, about how great it could be if the appliances would consume energy according to a set budget. However, I don't agree with the quoted idea about polling for power consumption by using a web site or some other paperless method being worthless.

Specially if the user could actually monitor which appliances are the ones consuming the most. This data could be further exploited with software by creating recommendations based on this consumption.

The big hassle right now would of course be related to the fact that this devices aren't "smart" enough and monitoring would depend on the user providing some info manually. I guess right now this would mean that the results wouldn't be as precise, but an interested user could get approximate results from this in order to make changes that benefit his/her pocket and/or the environment.

And of course, as technology matures, things can get better by providing easier to use interfaces and the proposed idea of smart appliances, as already mentioned here.

Re:Mod Parent Up

[wizrd_nml]

Smart would be if I set a monthly power budget and all my appliances figure out together how to best achieve their jobs within that budget.

That is one of the smartest ideas I've heard in a long time! You've got a really creative mind.

Sorry for not adding anything substantial to the discussion, but I was really blown away by how innovative that idea is.

Re:Mod Parent Up

[Sczi]

I dunno, I'm not convinced. How would one provide the input for the desired power budget? What unit of measurement? How about a big button that just says "do the best you can" which is basically what all the appliances will do right now anyway? You still have choices for hot start, dry, etc, but those choices are based on your results, ie, if your dishes don't get clean enough, try hot start, etc. Will it know that this is a particularly dirty load that needs the extended wash? The dishwasher is not going to even try to make that determination for you. IMHO, dish washers are probably already as advanced as they will ever need to be. You have your 2-3 basic settings and an optional timer for delayed start. In general, one should not replace the human in a well running system unless the human does the exact same thing the exact same way every single time. I think one of the previous posters was absolutely right in that the vast majority of this magic kitchen stuff is driven by "because we can," and in the end, people will pay double for it and then turn off all the automation features a week later and use it the old way.

On the other hand, a vicious, little, web-activated, robomonkey/webcam to chase my mother-in-law's fatass cat around the house.. now that would be a breakthrough.

Re:Mod Parent Up

[petehead]

Instead of making appliances that are smart, how about this novel idea: BUILD SH*T THAT DOESN'T BREAK EASIER THAN THE PREVIOUS GENERATION

Re:Mod Parent Up

[TeraCo]

What you need to realise is that they're doing that deliberately. While engineers used to work to make the MTTF the biggest possible number before, they now work to make the MTTR a period (X days) after the warranty expires.

The trick is to find a company that doesn't do this, and stick with them.

Energy will be the next issue

[tacocat]

I don't think there will be that much interest in smart appliances like they describe. I think this is a technological path to consider, but it will be over ruled by the fact that we, as a planet, are running out of per capita energy.

We may be able to create a lot of energy, but the per capita demand worldwide is growing such that Americans (who consume more energy per capita) will experience a severe energy shortage and as such, the focus will not be on more appliances that are smart and therefore have a passive load on the household grid, but focus on appliances that actually stop using all electricity when you turn them off. Many don't these days because of the hot start design features.

For the rest of this decade the US will experience energy shortages in terms of higher gasoline prices, higher heating gas prices, and higher electricity prices (and summer shortages). This will force us to reconsider a lot of the appliances that we already have and re-prioritize what we want in future appliances.

Re:Energy will be the next issue

[timeOday]

You have it backwards. Appliances are resource hungry largely because they are dumb. You have lights and air conditioners running hour after hour because they don't know nobody is home. You have sprinklers going because their owners don't know how much water to use for the region given recent and predicted weather patterns. You have a refrigerator with the compressor running constantly because it's too dumb to know its door is ajar, or its coils are dirty, and it has no way to tell anybody what is wrong. You have people making extra trips to the supermarket in SUVs because they forgot to buy paprika for a recipe, and new cars rolling off assembly lines because people forgot to change their oil. It's all about information. Information can save so much energy, the resources to store and transmit that information pale in comparison.

Re:Energy will be the next issue

[tacocat]

And for everyone one of these I have ten devices that consume power when they are set to OFF when in fact the consumer really intends for the device to be OFF as in no power no nothing.

I have three LED clocks in my kitchen. I have two LED clocks visible from my one Television and three clocks from my second Television. And my TV consumes power all week long so that when I do turn it on I get a picture in 1 second and not 5 seconds. My Nintendo WII has had the LEDs lit up for weeks now and I've not turned it one once.

Every single power charging transformer (phone, notebook, drill) consumes power after I unplug the phone/notebook from it. This can add up to a lot more than the AC when you consider 24x7 power consumption. This is the biggest problem a lot of families have when they attempt to go off-grid.

I can't find it but I thought I heard that 15% of a household power can be from LED's and passive fast-on electronics that no one needs 24x7

Re:Energy will be the next issue

[tacocat]

Found it HERE. Says the US loses an estimated 5% to standby power and some countries are upwards of 20% standby power.

Re:Energy will be the next issue

[mabhatter654]

you are correct, "always ready" technology is using a huge amount of power. Better connected devices would be nice, but I'd like to see more standard power sources that can be more efficient as well as a move toward FEWER electronic devices in my house.. it's too small and crowded already.

Reminds me of Thomas Watson's prediction...

[fermatslittletheorem]

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Dumb Technology

[Anonymous Coward]

I consider the addition of a web server in your dishwasher or the ability turn it off and on via a cell phone to be an example of dumb technology. It demonstrates a failure to consider the use cases for a device like a dishwasher. The user is going to be right next to the device, loading or unloading the actual dishes it's built to wash. You don't need remote informational displays, you don't need remote control.

Re:Dumb Technology

[Grishnakh]

Exactly. This crap just makes the device far more complex than it needs to be, and most importantly, more complex to use.

Technology should be simplifying our lives. Dishwashers have gotten better in recent years, but they still have a ways to go. My current dishwasher has an array of controls on the front panel, for different washing options ("regular, "tough scrub", sanitize, etc.). Ideally, all or most of these extra controls should be eliminated, and replaced with "Start" and "Stop" buttons. I shouldn't need to tell my dishwasher that the dishes are especially soiled and require a more intense cycle; it should figure this out on its own, much the same way my washing machine senses the size of its load and determines how much water to use, instead of me having to select the water volume manually as on ancient washing machines.

If the dishwasher needs to turn on at a certain time because power is cheaper at that time, then the dishwasher should figure this out on its own (perhaps with a simple "Turn on when power's cheap" button). Requiring the user to turn on the dishwasher remotely with a cellphone is a prime example of Rube Goldberg technology.

IBM trying to replace....

[Hanging By A Thread]

...wives and mothers. Obviously that's what they are trying to do. Women already know when the dishes are clean in the dishwasher, and when the AC needs to be turned down, or at least they tell you when. They even know when the trash is full. If IBM can build something that knows when the trash is full and it can empty itself the first time it's told then men everywhere will be in trouble. Women already know exactly how something is going to look on you without help from technology.

Of course it doesn't matter how many "super powers" the doctors will have it will still take a woman nagging the hell out of a man for weeks and weeks before he'll go see a doctor. I guess IBM hasn't figured that one out yet.

RFC 3251

[pv2b]

Does anybody know whether it's going to be compatible with RFC 3251 Electricity over IP?

Anybody wanting to develop a smart electricity grid should take a look at that document, includes lots of information about hazardous voltage drops and other pitfalls that can be avoided.

Re:RFC 3251

[Slorv]

I would prefer a RFC approved standard for 'IP over electricity' instead.

WARNING! WARNING!

[Anonymous Coward]

Do not click! Goatse link!

I'm serious. Unfortunately...

Ideating in the dark...

[Anonymous Coward]

So is this what those guys laying on the floor in the dark, ideating came up with?

Spanking New Technology

[psychicninja]

FTA:

In effect, doctor's will gain superpowers - technologies will allow them to gain x-ray like vision to view medical images; super sensitive hearing to find tiniest audio clue in your heart beat;

So... doctors will have the heretofore unheard of power of the X-Ray and stethoscope. Truly a new day is dawning!

Re:Spanking New Technology

[ChronosWS]

No, no, you don't understand...

Ok, actually you do.

WHY??

[YrWrstNtmr]

"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser,"

If I am out...why in the hell do I want to take time to manage all my household appliances? I am 'out' for a reason. Presumably to have fun. Other than that, I am at home or work.

Heat and A/C? Nope, sorry. Either maintain a constant temp, or follow the damn program I already gave you.
Dishwasher? Oh please. If it's full enough, I'll start it now. Empty it whenever. Or maybe I'll start it just before I go to bed.
House lights? Again...follow the (individual) timers, or just stay off. Simple, cheap, pretty foolproof.

What possibly would I need to change settings on if I am 'out'. About the only thing I can think of that I might want to alter is the TiVo settings. Which I can do already. And that is (for me) a non issue. In two(three?) years, I haven't found a need to do it once.

Re:WHY??

[jrumney]

What possibly would I need to change settings on if I am 'out'.

Coming back from holiday is the main use case I can see, where you want to set the heating low while you are away, or turn off aircon in summer, then turn it up just before you come back. The other use case would be for people with irregular hours, for whom timers don't offer the flexibility they need.

Re:WHY??

[freedom_india]

Smart Grid?? Does it mean another Enron can bill Grandma-on-welfare $13 per KwH in a smart non-criminal way?
Whenever these tech companies look into the crystal ball they see stuff that never ceases to amaze me.
And this is from the same company which said the world needs probably 5 computers.

Re:WHY??

[YrWrstNtmr]

My current programmable thermostat does that. Ok...only 7 day blocks at a time. But if gone for several weeks, I could set it to low, and come 'up' every Sunday (or whatever my return day is). Reprogram when I get back.

But the end to end infrastructure needed to allow me to reprogram my climate control via web or phone, for a maybe once a year instance, is way beyond what I want to do. Or pay for.

Re:WHY??

[daaku]

If I am out...why in the hell do I want to take time to manage all my household appliances? I am 'out' for a reason. Presumably to have fun. Other than that, I am at home or work. Exactly the point. You don't want to take time to manage all your household appliances. You want them to manage themselves.

Heat and A/C? Nope, sorry. Either maintain a constant temp, or follow the damn program I already gave you. I'll sort of agree here - but so many times I forget to turn off the Heat before going to work (gasp - slashdot is not my job!). GPS in my phone that notifies my Heater to turn on when I get close to home, or turn off when I get away.

House lights? Again...follow the (individual) timers, or just stay off. Simple, cheap, pretty foolproof. Seriously? This one annoys me the most - turning lights on and off as I go to the kitchen, outside or some room sucks. Every little bit of energy conservation helps. This one in aggregate is probably a considerable amount.

What possibly would I need to change settings on if I am 'out'. About the only thing I can think of that I might want to alter is the TiVo settings. Which I can do already. And that is (for me) a non issue. In two(three?) years, I haven't found a need to do it once. TiVo? Meh. TiVo is limited in its current design. Its going to be about On-Demand. Not the current crappy version that supplements the cable system. My (dedicated) computer connects to my TV. I don't see ads, or fast-forward them. I don't switch channels - I pick shows. With terabytes costing a few hundred dollars, I have enough media to last me for a while. This is what I have now - usability is what still needs improvement for the general masses.

Re:WHY??

[Anonymous Coward]

Heat and A/C? Nope, sorry. Either maintain a constant temp, or follow the damn program I already gave you. Do YOU always follow the exact same routine? Those programs are typically guidelines telling the system to make things comfortable when you are present and active, but save a little energy when you are asleep or away. Firstly, it's possible that can be automatically determined, for people who don't like to maintain the program. Secondly, that should also allow it to adapt automatically to your behavior.

Dishwasher? Oh please. If it's full enough, I'll start it now. Empty it whenever. Or maybe I'll start it just before I go to bed. Different people do things differently. If the dishwasher is almost full, I typically set it on delay so there is still an opportunity to add stuff as it is used, but the dishwasher will be done by dinner, or morning, or whenever it's needed. When I was a kid, we had cheaper electric rates starting at 11PM, so we always set the delay to take advantage of that. I would appreciate a dishwasher smart enough to use cheaper electricity when it is available, but get done by morning.

House lights? Again...follow the (individual) timers, or just stay off. Simple, cheap, pretty foolproof. Been there, done that, but my routine does end up varying sometimes. It would be nicer if the program could adjust. Of course, you can do that in "dumb" ways too: with dimmers, motion sensors, light sensors, humidity sensors, appropriate lighting, and alternative switches. One of the wiring projects on my list is to install an automatic switch on a closet door to light when the door opens.

Sensational yet Possible

[Unoti]

It's gotta be hard to come up with 5 year predictions that are both sensational enough to print and yet still plausible within 5 years. If you had to make a list with perfect hindsight that they could have done 5 years ago, what would you have on it?

I foresee....

[CBob]

computerworld.au leasing server time from a webcomic like schlockmercenary, at least that site doesn't drop to a crawl when slashdotted.

I also foresee smart apps being configured by idiots more often. Things like CaseSentry being used to monitor test servers or offices that are closed on weekends and then spamming folks w/emails when they fail outside of normal hours. (Ok, I cheated on that one, it's already here)

I want dumb energy devices.

[PolarBearFire]

"smart energy" devices? I prefer "dumb" energy devices where they are really off instead of the standby crap they have now. Standby is mostly broken now anyways, the whole point of standby on TVs was that you could use your remote and open the TV and start channel surfing immediately. Now because everything is more complex I have to wait for my TV to "boot" up for a few seconds first. The only difference between this and having the TV starting from a "cold" start is that I waste energy when it's off.

No, this is good...

[ed 'g3']

for some functions, central heating being the main one. Setting off home early? Log in and get the place warmed up. Getting back late? Log in to postpone the warm up cycle. Go one step further and tie the location of your gps-enabled car / mobile phone / wristwatch etc to CH behaviour so as to have it off or frost proof setting when you're a long way away, to have it full on when you're in the house or on an established route such as commuting back from the office and drop to background heat at other times. Each person in the house would need the phone / wristwatch / implant though! And not much point in the summer. But it'd be useful for anyone who comes and goes at irregular times, who (therefore) can't program a timer to keep heating optimally efficient.

Re:No, this is good...

[Anonymous Coward]

In England, one's servants take care of most of these functions and much more besides.

Re:No, this is good...

[EvanED]

And not much point in the summer.
I guess you come from the North, where your heating bills are the main environmental cost, and not from the South, where A/C is your main environmental cost. ;-)

Appliance with N.A.G. Option

[raftpeople]

"Why didn't you power me down before you left? Do you think money grows on trees? When I was your age we shut off ALL appliances before leaving the house, by HAND! And another thing..."

Re:Appliance with N.A.G. Option

[Anonymous Coward]

"Stella - shut up!!"

Riiight

[mqduck]

Even the act of eating will take on new meaning, in IBM's view: "You will know everything from the climate and soil the food was grown in, to the pesticides and pollution it was exposed to, to the energy consumed to create the product, to the temperature and air quality of the shipping containers it traveled through on the way to your dinner table." Will such information increase sales or revenue to producers? No. Will it hurt? Quite possibly.
Will producers make such information available? It shouldn't take a genius to answer this question.

Re:Riiight

[BigJim.fr]

>> "You will know everything from the climate and soil the food was
>> grown in, to the pesticides and pollution it was exposed to, to
>> the energy consumed to create the product, to the temperature
>> and air quality of the shipping containers it traveled through
>> on the way to your dinner table."
>
> Will such information increase sales or revenue to producers ?

Yes it will ! Differenciation is what make a product stand out
from the lot. This has already begun to happen in agriculture :
mass produced generic commodities are far less profitable than
product with very specific pedigrees. The modern marketing of
"appellation d'origine controllée" began with wines, but you
can now find examples in many other food categories such as
coffee and cheese, and it is just the beginning of the trend.

Thomas Watson probably never made that prediction

[hrvatska]

While often cited, it doesn't seem that Watson made that prediction. Apparently, the earliest known citation is a 1986 Usenet post. There aren't any speeches or documents of Watson's that contain this prediction. See the wikipedia article on Watson for more information. I have a biography of Watson, 'The Maverick and His Machine: Thomas Watson, Sr. and the Making of IBM', that also says there's no evidence he ever made that prediction.

Oh my dear IBM

[thammoud]

From a company that gave us Office Vision. That worked really well.

Re:Oh my dear IBM

[Grishnakh]

Yep, IBM should probably just stick to things like semiconductor process improvements, one place where they've actually been extremely successful. The closer they get to end-users, the more they seem to do really dumb stuff.

iDishwasher is about right.

[Chuck Chunder]

Spin the dial to set the time you need the wash to be finished by (or don't spin it if you want it started straight away).
Push the dial to lock it in (or start).

I have a (Sony) vcr with a neat dial-based quick timer setting mechanism. You just twiddle the knob to set the start time and then push it in, twiddle it to set the end time and push it in, twiddle it to set the channel and push it in.

Re:iDishwasher is about right.

[Gorobei]

That dial technology does sound cool, modulo the adding detergent thing (has that been solved?)

If truth be known, I probably wouldn't even buy an iDishwasher. My current dishwasher setup is hi-tech enough that I need only place the used plate, etc, in a visible location, and the kitchen system whisks it away, cleans it, and returns it to the correct cupboard. My hi-tech stove is a similar marvel: it often detects that I am hungry, and asks me what I want to eat (my wife has to translate because it lacks an English language module,) then, a little while later, it produces the requested food item. Quite cool, actually. I'm surprised these things haven't caught on more.

Re:iDishwasher is about right.

[daspriest]

Its probably the monthly fee...

Then there's the issue of not all models come with the proper paperwork...

Re:iDishwasher is about right.

[Grishnakh]

My current dishwasher setup is hi-tech enough that I need only place the used plate, etc, in a visible location, and the kitchen system whisks it away, cleans it, and returns it to the correct cupboard. My hi-tech stove is a similar marvel: it often detects that I am hungry, and asks me what I want to eat (my wife has to translate because it lacks an English language module,) then, a little while later, it produces the requested food item. Quite cool, actually. I'm surprised these things haven't caught on more.

There's a couple of big problems with this:

1) The monthly fee for this "device" is quite high, as the cost of labor is very expensive here in the US. And if you're paying less than Federal minimum wage for this device's operating time, you're in violation of the law.

2) Even if this device were free, you'd still have to deal with having an extra human in the house. Many of us prefer to have as few humans in our homes as possible, except for spouses and children of course.

3) Hired help such as this is notorious for stealing your stuff. I've known people whose maids were actually spies, just casing the house for professional thieves. Maids are also notorious for "falling" on the stairs and suing their clients for damages. You don't have to worry about machines stealing your stuff or suing you.

I'll take the technological solution, thanks. It'll cost less (possibly FAR less, depending on if you're unlucky enough to have your maid slip and fall in your house), present one less annoying person I have to deal with.

What about leaks

[Anonymous Coward]

I could see adding smart sensors for cutting off water in the case of leaks, though simple devices already exist to do this. Otherwise, why turn on a device when your not at home and then have it malfunction like the dishwasher getting a leak and not sensing it. Start the laundry? I just don't see it other than the 'look what I can do' aspect.

Yeah, right - and where's my flying car?

[Ralph Spoilsport]

From TFA:

he company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly, drive down pollution and get you to your destination easier, "without the stress."

This will be accomplished through "intelligent" traffic systems that automatically adjust light patterns and shift traffic to alternative routes, as well as cars that exhibit "reflexes" thanks to communication with other vehicles and roadside sensors, according to IBM.

Utter and catastrophic bullshit. Those features MIGHT be available in 5 years, but the stupid bint up the street who just bought tha gas guzzling Caddilac SUV is NOT going to be getting one in five years. She will likely still be driving the gas guzzling POS Caddy. And I will DEFINITELY still be driving my Prius. And my brother is going tobe buying a new car next year, and it will likely be a used Ford. He ALWAYS buys used Fords.

Essentially, for that technology to have ANY penetration in 5 years, it needs to have been made available last year or the year before. It takes an average of 10 years to replace 75% of the car fleet. This does NOT bode well given the petroleum situation....

RS

Is this the same IBM?

[Anonymous Coward]

...that gave us

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_J._Watson

Re:Is this the same IBM?

[EvanED]

Did you even read the article you linked to?

Although Watson is well known for his alleged 1943 statement: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers," there is no evidence he ever made it. The author Kevin Maney tried to find the origin of the quote, but has been unable to locate any speeches or documents of Watson's that contain this, nor are the words present in any contemporary articles about IBM. The earliest known citation is from 1986 on Usenet in the signature of a poster from Convex Computer Corporation as "I think there is a world market for about five computers" -- Remark attributed to Thomas J. Watson (Chairman of the Board of International Business Machines), 1943.

Re:Is this the same IBM?

[Anonymous Coward]

Of course I did. But some rumors are just way too funny :-)

Re:Is this the same IBM?

[joebobmcslob]

No. They are Lenovo now.

I predict fires will increase

[JoeCommodore]

Living in a rural area I have heard stories about people with their remote controlled homes starting up the furnace or whatever remotely in order to have the house toasty when they arrive. The problem with that is the critters who decided to nest on said furnace, or the broken gas hose, etc. so when Mr. and Mrs. tech get home they are greeted by the smoldering remains.

Re:I predict fires will increase

[toddestan]

I don't know about where you live, but up here in Minnesota leaving your furnance on (atleast some minimal level above freezing) when you aren't around is pretty much a necessity during the winter. Otherwise, the temperature can drop below freezing and you'll arrive home to another kind of mess when your pipes burst. Furnances can certainly cause fires, but it doesn't seem to be a common occurance. I would be more concerned about something happening during the roughly 8 hours per day you're in the house and sleeping.

Re:I predict fires will increase

[wilec]

"The problem with that is the critters who decided to nest on said furnace, or the broken gas hose, etc. so when Mr. and Mrs. tech get home they are greeted by the smoldering remains."

Uh, I think I would prefer that to being home when it goes up and becoming part of the "smoldering remains". Point is moot anyway since such can happen anytime if the systems are not maintained properly. I live in the middle of nowhere, I use a simple stand alone programmable t-stat, though my wife pretty much negates it by keeping it in manual mode and running it up-down-up-down-etc.

Wabi-Sabi
Matthew

Re:I predict fires will increase

[JoeCommodore]

When you are home you can handle such a problem, something sounds weird or there is a funny smell, why is there smoke? etc. Automated systems do the switch flipping but can't ensure the system is working right, I like the concept but I have heard of the reality.

The "Because I Can" factor is powerful

[Almahtar]

I have a computer sitting at home hooked up to a stereo, with a webcam. I frequently remote desktop into it to retrieve some document or another. One day I got a diabolical plan, turned the webcam on and logged myself into two IM accounts, hooked up my microphone and started yelling "Here boy! Come here Sam (my dog's name)!", and laughed when my poor bewildered bullmastif showed up on a (very slowly refreshing) webcam wondering where the hell my voice was coming from.

The dude intently staring at his laptop saying "Here boy, come here!!" draws a lot of attention in a cafe, but it was worth it.

Why bother looking like a freak just to confuse a poor dog? Because I can!
I'm hopeless.

Re:The "Because I Can" factor is powerful

[Viol8]

"poor bewildered bullmastif "

What is it with some (usually short or skinny) guys and macho dogs? Is it a compensation device for deficiancies elsewhere?

Re:The "Because I Can" factor is powerful

[0racle]

Big dogs, even very big dogs, are often some of the sweetest, kindest and gentlest animals you can own. Perhaps you should try to not be a dick instead of implying things about others.

Re:The "Because I Can" factor is powerful

[RobertM1968]

Viol8, both SerpentMage and 0racle are correct - and you're a bit weird - at least in your inference. Perhaps you are speaking of your own personal experiences? Or (incorrectly) thought you were being humorous?

Many large dogs just make wonderful, gentle companions - no need for inadequacy to want to own one. My ex-roommate had a 160lb rottweiler that was one of the nicest dogs I met. Not just was he both smart and gentle, but he hated violence of any kind and would not allow any violence in the house. If someone raised their hand in a threatening manor, he'd either reach up and pull the person's arm down and hold it or shove his way inbetween them and butt them apart with his head and keep them separated. He loved being petted, curling up with us to watch TV, go for runs and was very friendly... with one of his best non-human friends being a (my) silver tabby (cat).

Viol8, please explain to me what inadequacy one must have to want such a loyal, caring, gentle pet?

Re:The "Because I Can" factor is powerful

[puto]

I am short and skinny, always have been, and at age 38, none of that adult weight gain has happened. Good metabolism and genetics I suppose.

My girlfriend came to the relationship with an english mastiff. A very small one. Only weighs a 100 lbs, and looks like a giant boxer almost.

BEST DOG Ever. Super smart, sweet, protective, and funny as hell.

Mastiffs might be huge but they are not macho dogs by any means.

Pit Bulls and Rotts, and others are the macho dogs. And bulldogs.

I have had terriers all my life, and they can be little demons. I was unsure of my new giant pet, but I am never going back.

I do think I am compensating for anything.

Maybe my girl is. She is only five foot tall.

DUDE STOP THINKING ABOUT OTHER PEOPLES PENISES SO MUCH.

I really did not know us short skinny guys compensated for our heigh or penises with big dogs. I did not know you were looking at my penis when I walked my dog.

Michael Vick and his ilk were certainly short and skinny.

Wait I am short and skinny, buy I am latin colombian. That must mean I keep my cocaine hidden under my giant latin cock.

Re:The "Because I Can" factor is powerful

[Almahtar]

Is it a compensation device for deficiancies elsewhere? Yes, absolutely.

Re:The "Because I Can" factor is powerful

[treeves]

Like spelling deficiencies?

Most is complete garbage...

[ComputerPhreak]

Especially with regards to their predicted cellphone features:
In addition, the company said cell phones will continue to grow in power and functionality. For example, phones will enable users to snap a photo of an article of clothing, pull in results from the Web about the brand and where to buy it, and then render the garment on top of a 3-D image of the user, IBM said.

Yeah, okay... We don't even have algorithms that can do this in a research setting right now even with clusters of computers, and IBM is naive enough to say that within 5 years, we will have developed, perfected, and released this kind of stuff on your average (or even just high end) cellphone? What a crock of shit.

would fit my lifestyle.

[dancingmad]

It seems like most of the comments so far are against the idea of having machines you can control via the web or your phone and I too don't see the point of having web access to my laundry machine or my dishwasher (well, my hypothetical dishwasher).

But I live in Japan and that means a few things; I rely heavily on my cellphone to get things done. Internet, mail, news, weather, etc. Moreover, my apartment, like most Japanese housing, doesn't have central heat. Instead I rely on a (admittedly reasonably high tech) kerosone heater. It has a built in timer to switch on, which I can use at fixed times, like 10 minutes before my alarm clock goes off. But since the stoves are dangerous by themselves (supposedly, a lot of people don't care), I can't tell it to switch on when I come home - what if I am late from work, or stuck somewhere. It would be great if I could mail it or access it from my phone right before I left work and it would switch on (it is only a few minutes from my work to my home). Ditto the bath tub - it takes forever to fill it with hot water. If I could mail it before I got home I may be able to use it as soon or soon after I get back.

I am not saying such a thing could soon be possible (it may be already, I was given the kerosene heater so I have no idea what the current features are for such machines) - knowing how stagnant Japanese consumer products can be (really, how much has the kotatsu changed in 10 years??) even if it were implemented it may not catch on. But it would be great if it happened.

Yeeeeaaaahhhhh....

[Anonymous Coward]

Ummm yeah - IBM also was the one who was like "Oh there's no money in software, it's all in the hardware, let M$ have the software market" :-P

Re:Yeeeeaaaahhhhh....

[toddestan]

Ummm yeah - IBM also was the one who was like "Oh there's no money in software, it's all in the hardware, let M$ have the software market" :-P

Ultimately, I think they are right here. Something that can so easily be copied wants to be free.

Why?

[v1456vqe]

Why this obsession with progress?

The future of the past

[XNormal]

Smart homes with remotely controlled appliances have featured in predictions for about 20 years now. Always about 5 years out.

I predict they will remain in the prediction lists for the next 20 years.

Re:The future of the past

[stewbacca]

Well my boss in 1993 was able to control his home appliances (albeit not from a cellphone, but a landline phone) with his Mac and a modem. So this isn't really "future" technology, is it?

Re:The future of the past

[XNormal]

The predictions are about mass adoption. There is no question that this is possible (and has been possible for well over 30 years). The question is whether anyone really wants it. So far, the answer given by the market is a resounding 'no'. The steadfast predictors, undeterred by such trivialities have boldly kept it on their lists for decades. You've gotta admire that.

For the love of god!

[DerWulf]

For the love of god, PLEASE link directly next time! Why are the editors allowing this stuff?

OT: Re:The "Because I Can" factor is powerful

[SerpentMage]

Is that not being a bit stereotypical?

Do you actually know the character of a bullmastiff? I know, and it is not what people think it is. A Bullmastiff is not a dangerous dog. It's working dog meant to track you down, and "sit" on you.

http://www.bullmastiffsonline.com/history.html

"Gamekeepers then started their search for a dog that was strong, silent, fearless, agile and powerful enough to be able to run down and knock the poacher to the ground. They also required a breed that would not maul the poacher but only hold them until help came from the Gamekeeper."

They look scary, but are actually nice dogs. It's like Olde English Bulldogs, and English Bulldogs, which my wife and I have. People get scared of them because of their looks. But they are not dangerous dogs. All dogs bite including little poodles... Dogs are a product of their surroundings. Yes dogs have certain characters, but with the right environment and right owner there is no danger.

Re:OT: Re:The "Because I Can" factor is powerful

[multisync]

Yep. One of the best-natured dogs I know is a Bullmastif. As a bonus, this dog also sees no reason to go on a barking jag just because someone is at the front door, unlike most small, yappy dogs I have encountered.

From my experience, nurture plays at least as great a role as nature when it comes to the temperament of a dog.

We'd do better to have smart electrical sockets

[Greg_D]

Connected together with a switch to turn them all off. Turn off the lights and TV in any room and look around at all the nice little glowing LEDs that are shining back at you. There's no f'n reason whatsoever for those things to still be consuming electricity, yet they run 24/7 whether they are "on" or not. Want to conserve energy? Fix that first and THEN deal with smart appliances.

WTF is this?

[trailerparkcassanova]

This is the future, being able to turn on a fucking dishwasher from anywhere in the world? I was supposed to have a flying car years ago. Where the fuck is it?

I want my goddamn flying car!!!!!

Re:Thomas Watson probably never made that predicti

[Jecel Assumpcao Jr]

In this 1982 talk, Robert Noyce says John Von Neuman made that prediction:

http://archive.computerhistory.org/resources/moving-image/robert_noyce.102630513.wmv

I find that equally unlikely. On the other hand, if Watson did say that in 1943 then he was right for about a decade which is pretty good as computer market predictions go.

Yeah, where is WASH?

[maillemaker]

LOL! I just bought a new house, with a brand new dishwasher.

The front of that thing looks like a Christmas tree! Hot Wash. Regular Wash. Pots and Pans Wash. High Temp Wash. Air Dry. Heat Dry.

You are very correct - there should be one damn button - WASH.

I don't mind so much having to add detergent with every load (I just spent 5 minutes filling it up with dishes, after all), but the interface is complicated.

Re:Five years or LESS

[mysticgoat]

The smart reefer can work with RFID and scales built into the shelves.

The RFID scanner in the door would know that you took out the egg carton, then put it back in. The shelving would know that it was three eggs lighter on returning. Same for milk and most other things that are refrigerated. There would be some exceptions of course, like leftover casseroles. And the system would be easy to fool. But it would also be easy to work with.

As to major appliances like dishwashers and clothes dryers: I'd be much more interested in a power company that charged a lower rate during off-peak times, and sent out hourly forecasts of expected loads. A clothes dryer that would listen to the power company and turn itself on when the power was cheapest might be worth looking at. Being able to phone home and override the automatic behavior would be an added bell/whistle, but not a critical component.

Re: "smart" monitors

[The name is Dave. Ja]

...some unscrupulous government could install a wall-mounted "smart meter" outside your home that could have the capability to eavesdrop on private conversations inside, sending out private info, possibly over the powerline.

They don't need to do that. Why do you think these things are called "monitors" ??

---
Grassy knoll. Yeah.

Been done

[Anonymous Coward]

I did the appliance thing back in the early 1980s using a TRS-80 model 1, a Hayes auto answer modem, an X10 system and some custom software. I wrote some code for the TRS 80 that would activate or deactivate X10 modules according to a schedule. My bedroom air conditioner was set to turn on an hour before the time that I would normally get home. If I was going to be late, I would call my house, enter a password, and alter the schedule. I could even look at the status of the other modules, turn lights and a radio on and off - all remotely over a 300 baud modem. Good times.

Not too bad..

[Junta]

The medical imaging advancements, ok, that's not exactly a huge leap, particularly in the context of recent low-power MRI and fancy CT scan advances.

Cell phone being everything. Internet PCs are like that today without the ubiquitous voice capability and location awareness. It's a logical step as 'smartphones' become the norm, and some countries are already there.

The ability to know everything about the food you eat may be a stretch. I doubt personal sensor systems will develop to test things *non-destructively*, and therefore you are left with whatever the vendor tells you. No tricorders in the next 5 years, I guarantee. While this could be done on-line from the vendor using your cell-phone, why would they be more forthcoming online than the label?

As to driving, it's also not a huge leap. A huge component of that is GPS, which already exists and is being augmented with things like traffic data all the time. Car radar and inter-car communication comprise near-term information for a lot of capability with respect to discouraging bad habits (i.e. tailgating).

In terms of energy-efficiency, I think they've taken their datacenter perception and applied it directly without thinking in a general case. Computers can operate at different capabilities depending on power-consumption and depending on the task, some things may be appropriate. Right now the picture is complex and it pretty much demands administrators to dictate how it should work. In the home, for utility appliances, you turn them on and they should turn off when the task is complete. For lights and television and the like, interacting manually with a cell phone is burdensome, presence detection would be more intelligent. Apple's vision would be less attention-demanding, I'm sure (using presence detection).

Re:Not too bad..

[wilec]

"Car radar and inter-car communication comprise near-term information for a lot of capability with respect to discouraging bad habits (i.e. tailgating)."

I have found that a good old flash of the brake lights usually does wonders for tailgating issues.

Wabi-Sabi
Matthew

Things They Forgot

[sexconker]

Flying Cars
Colonies on the Moon
Computers twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them.

Somebody please mod parent up

[mstahl]

Everything is designed or by some kind of engineer. If you're an engineer and you notice something like a light that's not timed "right" in your opinion . . . just shut up about it unless the problem you're noticing actually does fit under your specialty.

in the future...

[stkpogo]

taxi an bus drivers will be outsourced to remote overseas jobs

embedded cell phones with palm screens and Uncle Martin telescoping antennas

MIPS per Watts will be the top benchmark

theft proof cars and all personal electronics only work for their owners

If I didn't leave accidentally stuff in it...

[redxxx]

I'd totally want an oven I could pre-heat remotely. Most other appliances, are pretty much ready to use when you get to them. It is kinda to have most be web enabled, but saving 20 minutes of waiting around doing nothing, could be rather handy (my time is really just that valuable). Maybe a built in heat resistant webcam, so I would have to worry about coming home to a smoking ruin, would be a nice touch.

Re:If I didn't leave accidentally stuff in it...

[Hucko]

If your time is so valuable, i have a technique that will enable you to use those *down* times effectively. (Not efficient necessarily.) It will only cost UK250.0 for a two hour session.

IBM Predicts?

[anotherslashfan]

I thought IBM just re-invented stuff and re-branded it as theirs? I'm not sure how they got in the prediction business? The article was no surprise and many "predictions" have been repeated over the years. IBM should try to be innovative and let the "Gartners of the world" handle the predictions. At least Gartner's will be more entertaining. (They won't be necessarily true, but entertaining.)

Going way past the X10 Concept.....

[tempest69]

The concept of remote activation is sorta primitive. The real concept of smart devices is about utilizing smart metered power. The concept is this.. The power company auctions off power in real time to devices which automatically bid for "cheap energy blocks" The cheap energy blocks never exceed the price of standard energy. This allows the power company to adjust load based on production from non-predictable sources. So when a windfarm starts going crazy with power, the air conditioner in your house can go full steam for quarter price. As the number of smart devices increases, the prices can auction to higher values. As smart devices get more vogue, we can rely on sporadic power generation more and more.

Right now, the power companies predict usage, with little control, with smart energy, they can tune usage much more efficiently.

Storm

IBM predictions

[Miow]

My five predictions for the next ten years. House prices in the UK will soar so young people will end up living in vans which will be fully equipped with communications but not have dishwashers, washing machines, and other energy/time wasting devices. In fact the gadget era is close to over already. Like the Golden Age of Greece which had slaves, no work saving inventions were made during that era (in spite of the steam engine and computer being invented during that time). We will reach a stage where we have all the information we need, and we will need less as people will not need to gather it any more, it will be done automatically. Marriages will break down, and less will take place. One in three children will lose contact with one or other parent, but mainly the father as women become more empowered in the workplace. Charity shops will not exist as people will not buy so much trash as they will have nowhere to put it. Oddly enough religions and related beliefs will expand as more information becomes available showing that the world will eventually come to an end and we will all end up as photons zipping around in space. Scientists will learn how to measure happiness, goodwill, kindness, care, and sympathy. These attributes will start to replace money, power, and material wealth as a measure of success. Most people in the western world will be employed in some form of research, the bulk of which will have little impact on daily life. The decreased use of oil will see oil producing countries go through great political and religious changes as they have to adopt new economic models. As most machines will become highly reliable, or cheap enough to be easily replaceable then choices will be limited. Only a few types of car, phone, etc will exist as they will all perform the same. Pornography, which currently takes up about 65% of browsing, will grow. It will be added to by robots. It will no longer be seen as a vice but and essential part of living, and will be a major contributor to the decline of the population,and will be part of normal education. The decrease in population and increase in everlasting goods will result in about 5% of the population being able to supply all the food, transport, housing, and energy requirements of the population. This will leave most people the choice of doing nothing most of the day other than social pursuits, or spend time studying hobbies of their choice. This in turn will create 'tribes' of people will common interests such as sports, music, arts, etc, who have little to do with each other, and will create their own languages and culture. The decrease in production generally will alleviate global warming. Also, High street shops will disappear apart from a few convenience stores. The space taken up by shops will not be replaced by housing but by various services like the Citizens Advice Bureau which will cater for personal problems needing human intervention. With increased medical breakthroughs people will live longer, and older people will be the norm. This will result in less crime and more political stability, though politics itself will large be a cosmetic excercise. Writing as a means of communication will start to disappear and communication becomes mainly audio-visual. Computer games will be largely bio-feedback machines. The law will be drastically changed as various lie-detecting mchines become automatic and be allowed in courts. Genetics will largely predict our probability of illness and capabililities. This in turn will effect our life style. Money will disappear except for special forms such as coins with chips in that are used for machine operation. The mobile phone, Ipod etc will all be incorporated into a headset or spectacles, and people will walk around largely oblivious to what is going on around them. Criminals will be allowed to take the choice of being scientific guinea pigs instead of sentences. The first cities will be made under the sea, and the discovery will be made that those livingunder the sea never suffer from obesity due to the fact

SNMP Toaster, then what

[Douglas Goodall]

Now having toasted a piece of bread at Interop, is there really a need to take, "Because I Can..." any further? Just joking. Automation is fun, but Disney was going on about the home of the future back in the 50's i think...

Ibm five prediction for the future

[jesse285]

Ok this is 2008 and I hear a lot of talk about what what. Now we are alread 20s year behind if you think about it, but I forget that those things are make for the Rich peoples and the one who don't make 10,000 can not be a part of this.A lot things sound good but what about the cost of it. If they want things to be as good as they say, they got to get on the ball and make things easy for all peoples