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Krugman On Bitcoin and the Gold Standard

twoallbeefpatties writes "Prominent Keynesian economist Paul Krugman has left a note on his blog at NYTimes about his view of Bitcoin, discussing its similarity to the gold standard and suggesting a drop in 'real gross Bitcoin product' as its users hoard the currency rather than spend it."

601 comments

  1. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I thought meteorites brought most of the Bitcoins to Earth.

  2. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Bull. Shit. 24 6990s = about 8.5kW, you're not pulling that through that wimpy plug.

  3. This oughtta be good for... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Troll

    This oughtta be good for at least 50 Libertarian ragers ragging on Keynesian economics, and 100 or so knock-on posts of rebuttald and counter-rebuttals. Throw in another 50 "bitcoin slashvertisement" complaints and carefully crafted trolls. You've got yourself 200 posts or so, not including this one, and some nice pageviews. Keep the ad revs rollin' in.

    1. Re:This oughtta be good for... by reboot246 · · Score: 1, Troll

      Okay, I'll bite. He's a Keynesian. Nothing he says has anything to do with reality so why take him seriously?

    2. Re:This oughtta be good for... by rthille · · Score: 2

      Really? Nothing to do with reality? His predictions have been far better than most. http://tinyurl.com/3bqefxx In particular, the WSJ was saying years ago that rampant inflation was just around the corner. When again?

      --
      Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/
    3. Re:This oughtta be good for... by brainzach · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      Because Keynesian economics is the only model that explains the Great Depression and current financial crisis.

    4. Re:This oughtta be good for... by jmorris42 · · Score: 1, Troll

      > In particular, the WSJ was saying years ago that rampant inflation was just around the corner. When again?

      Been to Walmart lately? Everything except tech is going up. The government is suppressing the official inflation figures with a lot of smoke and mirrors but for an ordinary person wages are pretty flat and the price of everything is going up. Same for unemployment, when you can't apply for another extension you aren't considered 'unemployed' anymore, which is the only way the rate is staying under 10%. But Bushitler isn't president anymore so the media play along. Remember when 6% unemployment was 'a jobless recovery?'

      As for Krugman, if that idiot said the sky was blue I'd look up from the TV and peek out the window half expecting cavorting unicorns and rainbows under a pink sky. He deserved his Nobel Prize less than Obama deserved his, if that is possible. Most Nobels these days are political trophies for being a socialist or terrorist (Arafat).

      Might as well go for the gold and trash bitcoin as well while I'm in snark mode. Remember e-gold? That will be bitcoin's fate. The only people who will be doing anything with it will be criminals laundering their ill-gotten gains. And once a service gets that taint on it there is very little that can be done to attract enough reputable business to get rid of it since nobody wants to associate with a criminal enterprise. Paypal succeeded because of a symbiotic relationship with eBay, which is why they were bought out. Unless bitcoin quickly finds a legitimate source of commerce to own they are toast. And that is making the assumption for the sake of argument that the tech isn't bogus. Which it almost certainly is. They talk out both sides of their mouth. On the one hand it is anonymous enough for money laundering but on the other they promise accountability.

      --
      Democrat delenda est
    5. Re:This oughtta be good for... by Teancum · · Score: 1

      Unless bitcoin quickly finds a legitimate source of commerce to own they are toast. And that is making the assumption for the sake of argument that the tech isn't bogus.

      You can decide for yourself if the "tech" if legit or not, but as for using it for "legitimate commerce", I'd have to agree as well. I said as much numerous times on the official bitcoin forums and even tried to come up with some ways to make that happen. I still am doing that.... sort of.

      I have a few problems with the way Bitcoin itself is set up, even if the concept of an electronic currency protected through encryption might be a good idea. My issues are down in the gritty details and some of the presumptions that were arbitrarily decided upon by "Satoshi" that I simply don't agree with. The core idea, that a currency base protected through encryption was as strong as the majority of the CPU power of the network is a pretty sound idea. Still, if a majority of the network is engaged in illegal activity, you have to wonder about those CPU cycles too.

    6. Re:This oughtta be good for... by ravenshrike · · Score: 1

      Except he's not Keynesian. Neo-Keynesian, sure. Keynes would never have used the stimulus for public works projects in the first place, and in the second, he would have expected debt to gdp to be a fuckload lower than it is. Keynes expected the .gov to run a surplus on purpose and put the money away(something the US government is legally prohibited from doing) precisely to inject the 'slack' into the economy during a depression. Thirdly, he sure as fuck wouldn't have expected for a government to inflate it's currency by a trillion dollars in addition to the stimulus projects. Now, I still think Keynes was full of shit, but at least it was sweeter smelling shit than what Krugman's passing off as Keynesian economics.

    7. Re:This oughtta be good for... by flaming+error · · Score: 2

      > rampant inflation was just around the corner

      The technical definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply. And as it turns out, that was indeed just around the corner.

      Rising prices are really just a symptom (money supply goes up, money value goes down, you need more money to buy stuff).

    8. Re:This oughtta be good for... by blue+trane · · Score: 1

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Components_of_US_Money_supply.svg

      Where was the inflation during the past 30 years?

    9. Re:This oughtta be good for... by blue+trane · · Score: 1

      Japan's debt-to-gdp of 200% and a currency they consider too high is proof that inflation does not depend on debt or money supply.

    10. Re:This oughtta be good for... by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

      The technical definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply. And as it turns out, that was indeed just around the corner.

      Rising prices are really just a symptom (money supply goes up, money value goes down, you need more money to buy stuff).

      You have it backwards, unfortunately. Inflation is defined to be an increase in price levels. This increase in price levels can indeed cause the money supply to grow, but more on that in two paragraphs.

      The longer story is that your definition of inflation is simply outdated. It used to be used for gold standard currencies, where "inflating the money supply" was something that a government actively chose to do, and so it was reasonable to talk about it. In our modern monetary systems, the size of the money supply is endogenous, i.e. it is not determined by the government, and therefore defining inflation in terms of the money supply is simply pointless.

      The size of the money supply is mostly determined by the credit creation of banks. When a bank makes a loan, the money supply increases. When the loan is retired, the money supply shrinks. There are really two big classes of loans in our society: mortgages, and loans to cover production costs of firms. The first class grows when house prices rise: increasing prices in houses causes the size of mortgages to go up, which expands the money supply. The second class grows when general price levels increase: firms have larger production costs, which means they're taking out larger loans, which grows the money supply.

      Of course there are other factors driving the money supply as well, such as Minsky-type cycles in how banks assess the credit-worthiness of their customers, but there is certainly a causal link from price levels to the size of money supply that people don't seem to be aware of.

    11. Re:This oughtta be good for... by sonicmerlin · · Score: 0

      No it's not you blithering idiot. Inflation is defined as an increase in consumer prices. Money supply is far less important than money velocity in determining inflation rates, and in developed economies can even be negatively correlated with inflation. Since banks aren't lending, and corporations are hoarding profits, money velocity is extremely low and we're at risk of deflation. Thus the "liquidity trap".

    12. Re:This oughtta be good for... by ravenshrike · · Score: 1

      Inflation depends on perceived value of the money supply. Japan's debt is held almost entirely by it's citizens, and the Japanese work ethic is perceived as legendary, both of which have a strong mitigating effect upon how everyone else treats their currency.

    13. Re:This oughtta be good for... by flaming+error · · Score: 1

      > it is not determined by the government, and therefore
      > defining inflation in terms of the money supply is
      > simply pointless.

      I don't follow. Why does it matter who inflates the supply?

      Either way, supply/demand still works: supply of money goes up, price of money goes down.

      > There are really two big classes of loans in
      > our society:

      I believe you are leaving out the federal debt, which at 14 trillion dollars accounts for somewhere in the neighborhood of 100% of the money supply.

    14. Re:This oughtta be good for... by Politburo · · Score: 1

      Unemployment benefits have no relationship to the unemployment rate.

      If you don't have a job and are looking for work, you are 'unemployed'.

    15. Re:This oughtta be good for... by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

      > it is not determined by the government, and therefore
      > defining inflation in terms of the money supply is
      > simply pointless.

      I don't follow. Why does it matter who inflates the supply?

      It matters for policy discussions. In the gold standard world, expanding the money supply (and base) is something that governments did. Inflation, in the gold standard sense, was something that governments did. So it made sense to argue for or against certain government action.

      In our modern world, money supply changes and inflation are things that are almost entirely done by the private sector. The implication for policy debates is huge.

      Either way, supply/demand still works: supply of money goes up, price of money goes down.

      Uh, no. The term "money supply" is really very misleading. Just because the "money supply" (i.e. M2) increases, that doesn't mean that money somehow "becomes cheaper". There is not a market like for commodities. In fact, there is no robust causality from a growth of the money supply to anything else. The only causalities there are is that some third type of event causes both the money supply to grow and something else to happen.

      For example, increasing consumer credit can cause the money supply to grow and also aggregate demand to grow, which in turn can grow the economy, or, if the economy hits supply side constraints, cause inflation. So in the latter case, it is not the growth of money supply that causes inflation; instead, it is a third event (more consumer credit) that simultaneously causes inflation and a growth of the money supply. Similarly, in the first case it is not the growth of money supply that causes growth of the economy; instead, it is a third event that simultaneously causes growth of the economy and of the money supply.

      Sorting out those causalities is kind of important.

      > There are really two big classes of loans in
      > our society:

      I believe you are leaving out the federal debt, which at 14 trillion dollars accounts for somewhere in the neighborhood of 100% of the money supply.

      I was talking about private sector loan activities, which are what really affects the money supply the most. Also, don't delude yourself: outstanding mortgage debt is on the same order of magnitude as total government debt, and that's just one type of private debt.

      Besides, it's not like government needs you to loan it money. Government debt is really a tool of monetary policy. Read about how our monetary systems actually work.

    16. Re:This oughtta be good for... by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      He's a Economist . Nothing he says has anything to do with reality so why take him seriously?

      FTFY. It's not like any of the other schools of Economics have anything to do with reality either.

    17. Re:This oughtta be good for... by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      I think the problem with Bitcoin is the way it's set up. Its a currency designed to encourage people to hoard it, rather than spend it. There's only going to be a finite number of them, so for a while, it will be more valuable to hoard them rather than spend them to exchange goods. Why buy something today if your currency will be worth more tomorrow?

    18. Re:This oughtta be good for... by kwiqsilver · · Score: 2

      WSJ is Keynesian.
      Krugmans predictions have sucked:
      Krugman said the borrow and spend and print and spend stimulus packages would help the US economy. They did not.
      He said that inflating the bubble over the past decade would be good. It was not.
      The people who predicted the housing bubble burst, the tech bubble burst, and just about every recession and depression since 1913 are the Austrians like FA Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, Murry Rothbard, and Ron Paul, all of whom are (or were until their deaths) firm believers in the gold standard. Generally, if all the politicians who take bribes...I mean "campaign contributions", from our corporate overlords, are strongly in favor of an economic policy (like Keynesianism), it's not going to be good for the rest of us.

      Comparing bitcoin to gold is absolutely moronic! Bitcoin has far more in common with the US dollar (or other fiat currencies) than with gold.
      The gold supply is limited to the amount that exists in the universe and our ability to extract it efficiently. Bitcoin (like the Federal Reserve) can change the amount in circulation by entering numbers on a computer.
      Gold has real, concrete value. It is useful in dozens of industries, not just jewelry and ornamentation. Bitcoins (like the USD since 1971) are backed by nothing of value, and are therefore inherently valueless. There is a reason that gold has been the de facto wealth storage medium for over 6000 years now. Successful cultures become successful on a gold standard, then turn to empire, inflate the currency, and collapse. (The US empire is currently shifting from step 3 to step 4).
      Krugman hates the gold standard, like all Keynesians, because it would eliminate the ability of the Fed to print and spend, a policy Krugman loves.

    19. Re:This oughtta be good for... by kwiqsilver · · Score: 1
      You have it wrong, actually...from your wikipedia link:

      The term "inflation" originally referred to increases in the amount of money in circulation, and some economists still use the word in this way.

      Generally in economic circles, non-Keynesians will use the term price inflation when referring to rising prices, and inflation to refer to an increase in the currency in circulation. Keynesians will use the the term inflation to mean price inflation, and completely ignore the concept of currency supply inflation, because acknowledging it would require admitting the fundamental flaw of Keynesianism: that printing fiat currency funnels money from the lower and middle classes to the politically connected elites.

    20. Re:This oughtta be good for... by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

      I actually pointed this original use of the term out myself. It's just that most economists have moved on. The causal link between money supply and price increases is actually non-existent. As I've written in a sibling post, the only links that exist are when there is a third event (such as increase in consumer credit leading to excessive consumption) that increases both the money supply and the price level at the same time. But this is not a causal link from money supply to price increases. And the empirics support this. It's one of those things where everybody "knows" that there is a causal link, but when people actually try looking for it, they can't find it. Yet for some strange reason, they just "know" that it "must" be true, empirical studies be damned.

      This leads to fun stuff like economists predicting three years ago that the actions of the Fed would lead to massive inflation. Strangely, this inflation still hasn't shown up. Even of the relatively modest inflation we're having right now, almost everything can be attributed to energy prices. Not a sign of monetary policy-caused inflation is in sight.

      Besides, the outdated definition of inflation is simply useless. Nobody's life is directly affected by the size of the money supply, and the size of the money supply is not a policy variable, i.e. the government does not set the size of the money supply. On the other hand, the definition of inflation in terms of price increases is useful, because people's lives are directly affected by changes in the price level.

      printing fiat currency funnels money from the lower and middle classes to the politically connected elites.

      Oh please. Any funneling of money towards politically connected elites has nothing to do with whether one has the fiat money or not. Political systems before 1971 were perfectly capable of funneling money towards the connected elites. This has more to do with societal attitudes towards corruption etc. than anything else. If you let your politicians run over you, that's what you get. Whether you have fiat money or not just doesn't matter.

    21. Re:This oughtta be good for... by secretcurse · · Score: 1

      How do you think they count the number of unemployed people for official figures?

      --
      I'm using all of my mod points to mod ancient memes down. Please join me.
  4. STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    You are making bitcoin into something important and noteworthy and it is not.

    No wonder taco left.

    1. Re:STOP by nedlohs · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'm pretty sure taco wasn't editing the New York Times.

    2. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      If that's your position, maybe you should take it up with Dr. Krugman rather than Slashdot?

      On the other hand, I might be interested in what a Nobel laureate in Economics says about Bitcoin. It seems like his conclusion is similar to mine: it's a waste of time.

    3. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ZING!

    4. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      You are making the New York Times into something important and noteworthy and it is not.

      No wonder Taco left.

    5. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're just stupid and uneducated. You're also probably a college student.

    6. Re:STOP by nedlohs · · Score: 0

      Economics isn't even a real nobel prize, and it's as related to reality as the peace prize...

    7. Re:STOP by whiteboy86 · · Score: 1

      Bitcoin seams to be important only for the underground economy, that is why (i think) EFF and FSF withdrew their support, buying into it you are basically supporting all kinds of blackhats, just look it up at Wikipedia's Bitcoin 'concerns' section http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin

    8. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And you don't even have booksmarts. You are probably a K-9 dropout.

    9. Re:STOP by AuMatar · · Score: 5, Informative

      The peace prize is a real Nobel, it's one of the original group set up by Alfred Nobel. The economics one isn't, it's a separate award that uses a very similar name, set up by the bank that handles the Nobel grant because they wanted to give their field some legitimacy off of the name.

      --
      I still have more fans than freaks. WTF is wrong with you people?
    10. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Woof!

    11. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wikipedia... now there is a reliable source of unbiased information!

      Why it's almost as enlightening to the human condition as the Slashdot comment section!

    12. Re:STOP by Kreigaffe · · Score: 2

      nedlohs has it right.
      Economics is not a real Nobel -- as you point out.
      Further, it's as related to reality as the Peace Prize -- that is, it is not.

      He doesn't say the Nobel Prize for Peace is not a real Nobel, he just said it's not related to reality. It's not, just look at the past recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize. There's no way a sane person could correlate those winners to the concept of progressing peace.

      --
      ... still waiting for this free-as-in-beer free beer I keep hearing about. :|
    13. Re:STOP by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      Which is what I said, but repetition is never bad I guess.

    14. Re:STOP by bonch · · Score: 1, Troll

      I can't believe anyone would take this silly currency seriously. Dear Bitcoin fans, have fun with your internet fun bucks, I guess.

    15. Re:STOP by bonch · · Score: 2, Insightful

      On the other hand, I might be interested in what a Nobel laureate in Economics says about Bitcoin. It seems like his conclusion is similar to mine: it's a waste of time.

      Just as soon as Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama stops all the wars. Hint--if you're left of center, you tend to win prizes from left of center organizations.

    16. Re:STOP by superdude72 · · Score: 2

      It's his blog, he can post what he wants.

      Some times he posts about science fiction.

      Some times he posts about indie bands he's into.

      It wouldn't surprise me if he were reading this thread.

    17. Re:STOP by wordsnyc · · Score: 1

      Just as soon as Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama stops all the wars. Hint--if you're left of center, you tend to win prizes from left of center organizations.

      That explains Kissinger's prize. But yeah, it's bullshit, and the Obama thing is the nadir of a very sleazy history.

      --
      Sent from the iPad I found in your car.
    18. Re:STOP by icebraining · · Score: 2

      Hint--if you're left of center, you tend to win prizes from left of center organizations.

      That doesn't explain why Obama got his Nobel Prize.

    19. Re:STOP by Shivetya · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      Well a Keynesian economist thinks it was important enough to write about, but then again given their track record why do we accord them any insight into anything?

      --
      * Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
    20. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      "Stuff that matters" was meant to be sarcastic. Where do you people come from? Cryptocurrency is practically the definition of nerd fetish.

    21. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am also pretty sure that the New York Times did not edit the blog post under discussion.

    22. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They gave it to conservative hero Milton Friedman, the brains behind Reaganomics. According to Wikipedia, this caused some protest because Friedman had some associations with murderous right-wing dictators in Chile.

      Your heroes, right?

    23. Re:STOP by OakDragon · · Score: 2

      You're just stupid and uneducated. You're also probably a college student.

      I am NOT Paul Krugman!

    24. Re:STOP by LordLimecat · · Score: 1

      The article is actually a good piece on why Bitcoins are rubbish-- to quote,
      So buying into Bitcoin has, at least so far, been a good investment.

      But does that make the experiment a success? Um, no. What we want from a monetary system isn’t to make people holding money rich; we want it to facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich. And that’s not at all what is happening in Bitcoin.

      Seems like a fair assessment to me. I would be satisfied if this were the last article on Bitcoin Slashdot were to post.

    25. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He couldn't drop out. The K-9 knotted.

    26. Re:STOP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know what, I guess repetition is never bad.

    27. Re:STOP by canadian_right · · Score: 0

      Previously...
      Just as soon as Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama stops all the wars. Hint--if you're left of center, you tend to win prizes from left of center organizations.

      Obama is a hard right winger in Sweden, so your theory fails.

      --
      Anarchists never rule
    28. Re:STOP by icebraining · · Score: 1

      What exactly lead you do believe they're my heroes?

    29. Re:STOP by SteveFoerster · · Score: 1

      For what it's worth, the different prizes are chosen by very different committees. There's no "they" here.

      --
      Space game using normal deck of cards: http://BattleCards.org
    30. Re:STOP by SteveFoerster · · Score: 1

      My favorite quip on this is that Barack Obama has now launched more cruise missiles than all other Nobel Peace Prize winners combined.

      --
      Space game using normal deck of cards: http://BattleCards.org
    31. Re:STOP by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      At the very least, it gives a semi-anonymous way to buy drugs over the internet. You know, for those who are too anti-social to go find a dealer.

    32. Re:STOP by operagost · · Score: 1

      I can't believe anyone would take Krugman seriously. Keynesian economics has proven to be a disaster. I would rather go to a phrenologist for my toothache than consult Krugman.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    33. Re:STOP by operagost · · Score: 1

      Because there are two kinds of Keynesians: the people in power, and the powerless people who are told that the powerful Keynesians will make them rich. Slashdot is mainly composed of the latter.
      "This is a rich country. We have plenty of money, and if you don't believe me, ask Haliburton. There's plenty of money out there; don't fall into the trap of this whole deficit argument. The only question is how to spend it." - Van Jones

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    34. Re:STOP by jonadab · · Score: 1

      > The peace prize is a real Nobel

      On paper.

      In practice, it's the poster child for completely meaningless politically-driven popularity contests, because the committee that hands it out is not even remotely concerned with giving the prize to people who actually merit it in the sense of contributing in any real way to, you know, peace.

      I mean, yes, occasionally they hand out one that makes sense. Sure, Gorbachev, okay, I'll buy that, and there are a handful of others that are at least arguable.

      But you can't read the whole list and then tell me with a straight face that the committee members are taking seriously the idea of only giving the award to people who have meaningfully contributed to peace. They give it to politicians who have never so much as participated in anything resembling a peace talk. They routinely give the thing to political activists, sometimes to extremely militant political activists of the "we will not discuss even the possibility of peace until our enemy surrenders unconditionally to our insane terms that deny them the right to exist and breathe oxygen" variety. At least one person has received it just for starting a charity fund, which was not in any way related to the promotion of peace. (If anything, the Medicine prize would have been more relevant on that one, but the dude was a politician, not a doctor.)

      So yeah, the Nobel Peace Prize may be a real Nobel (and at well over a million smackers I'd certainly call it a real Prize), but it doesn't really consistently have anything to do with Peace.

      --
      Cut that out, or I will ship you to Norilsk in a box.
    35. Re:STOP by jonadab · · Score: 1

      When it comes to Nobel Peace Prize recipients, Obama is actually kind of middle of the road. Well, okay, left of center, but definitely not on the extreme edge. I mean, yes, he had (at the time it was awarded) never participated in anything that significantly promoted peace (unless you count delivering some speeches that criticized his political opponent's policies, but nearly all politicians do that as a matter of course). On the other hand he had, so far as I am aware, not done anything to actively promote an everlasting blood-feud of hostility, aggression, and attempted genocide, either. Some of the other recipients have been, depending on who you ask, "strong political activists" (if you believe in their cause) or "terrorists" (otherwise). Several of them had actively promoted the use of physical violence (in at least one case, suicide bombings directed against civilian targets) as a means to resolve political disputes. Some of them make Obama look like peace incarnate.

      --
      Cut that out, or I will ship you to Norilsk in a box.
  5. Re:Bitcoin by somersault · · Score: 1

    Have you actually made any money yet? When I looked into it I wasn't too thrilled at how easy it was for people to scam you out of bitcoins by contesting Paypal payments etc

    --
    which is totally what she said
  6. Re:Bitcoin by zill · · Score: 5, Informative

    First of all, taking electricity from the hallway is obviously theft.

    But more importantly you are trolling because each 6990 consumes at least 300 watts during mining, which means you need 7.2kw for your whole setup. This far exceeds what a single outlet can provide.

  7. Hoarding's the point. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    Krugman's got a point - the real value of bitcoin is that it's a lottery ticket. To buy one bitcoin, you pay about the price of a fast food meal. Then you back it up and forget about it for a few years.

    In the one-in-a-billion chance that 20 years from now the entire world's economy is being transacted in bitcoins, you'll be a multibillionaire.

    If you think the odds of Bitcoin taking over the world (or even replacing PayPal for ecommerce) are one-in-a-million, owning one whole bitcoin is a lottery with a 1000:1 payoff. If you think it's a one-in-a-billion event, it's a coin flip. If you think it's a one-in-a-trillion event, buy a Big Mac instead.

    1. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Z34107 · · Score: 2

      RTFA again. Nowhere does Krugman say bitcoins are a "lottery ticket" whose value might soar - their value has soared. His point is that this is problematic - massive deflation leads to hoarding, rather than spending, a currency.

      --
      DATABASE WOW WOW
    2. Re:Hoarding's the point. by syousef · · Score: 1

      If you think the odds of Bitcoin taking over the world (or even replacing PayPal for ecommerce) are one-in-a-million, owning one whole bitcoin is a lottery with a 1000:1 payoff. If you think it's a one-in-a-billion event, it's a coin flip. If you think it's a one-in-a-trillion event, buy a Big Mac instead.

      Let's put it this way: I think the odds of me growing a new orrafice that poops out mutliple currencies AND a pair of wings are greater.

      --
      These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
    3. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What the hell is an orrafice? Sounds nasty!

    4. Re:Hoarding's the point. by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately for you and Paul, Bitcoin is undergoing monetary inflation, not deflation. This little fact was conveniently left out of his blog post. New Bitcoins are created every day, at about a 30% annual rate, which actually meets the International Accounting Standards Board definition of hyperinflation. So, for the moment, if you'd like to compare Bitcoin to anything, compare it to Zimbabwe or to the Weimar Republic or to what we will soon see here in the US thanks to Keynesian money-printers like Krugman.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    5. Re:Hoarding's the point. by GPF(BSOD) · · Score: 1

      It soared, then soured. Bitcoin's tulips have come home to roost.

      --
      Linux is not a religion. It is a collection of logic. Stop being stupid.
    6. Re:Hoarding's the point. by zill · · Score: 2

      In the one-in-a-billion chance that 20 years from now the entire world's economy is being transacted in bitcoins, you'll be a multibillionaire.

      I know that "billionaire" part is just a figure of speech, but let's find out how large the bitcoin jackpot really is, for curiosity's sake.

      Suppose miraculously bitcoin manage to completely replace both the USD and the Euro tomorrow. There are currently:
      980 billion USD in circulation
      863 billion Euros in circulation (~1.2 trillion USD)
      7.2 million bitcoins in circulation
      Thus each bitcoin would be worth approximately 300k USD. Hardly makes you a millionaire, let alone a billionaire.

      Disclaimer: I have never taken an economics course in my life and I have been repeatedly characterized as "terminally retarded" in Internet discussions. The above calculations might not land in the right sport, let alone the right ballpark.

    7. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Z34107 · · Score: 1

      Inflation is about a currency's value, not its quantity. At least according to TFA, bitcoin has been undergoing deflation, which makes sense given that there's an upper limit to how many bitcoins there will ever be, and producing new ones gets exponentially harder as time goes on.

      --
      DATABASE WOW WOW
    8. Re:Hoarding's the point. by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      Well obviously there is price deflation. That's sort of a requirement for any new currency. But you're welcome to print up twenty million of your own dollars with your face on them and see how much demand you get. Something tells me it wouldn't be nearly as successful.

      Frankly, I don't have the time right now to correct every wrong assertion that Krugman makes about Bitcoin right now. At first glance, though, it's as though he did absolutely no research whatsoever. He read the main page and saw "limited quantity of Bitcoins" and then went off on another ridiculous aspie rant spouting his usual nonsense.

      Here is a list of Bitcoin merchants in wiki form. You can look back through the history and see that real "gross Bitcoin product" has risen significantly, not fallen as he claims. Total "market cap" has risen as well. The value of a Bitcoin in terms of Dollars has only fallen due to the aforementioned 30% inflation rate.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    9. Re:Hoarding's the point. by rthille · · Score: 1

      That's the paper money, that's no where near the size of the money supply, which is much different. You want M2 from the tables, which is something like $9.5T. Still only 10x more though, so 1 bitcoin would net you $3 mill.

      --
      Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/
    10. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The one soft spot in that claim is that one year ago a Bitcoin was worth precisely nothing.

    11. Re:Hoarding's the point. by ErikZ · · Score: 0

      Tulips don't roost.

      Also, Bitcoins don't have tulips.

      --
      Democrats or Republicans. They are both taking us to the same place and they are not afraid of us anymore.
    12. Re:Hoarding's the point. by zill · · Score: 1

      No, bitcoin is precisely the equivalent of M0.

      If the fractional reserve banking system can make $980 billion physical USD bills into $9.5 trillion dollars, then the very same system will make 7.2 million bitcoins into 72 million bitcoin credits. Don't confuse the actual currency in circulation with whatever the money multiplier produces.

    13. Re:Hoarding's the point. by elbonia · · Score: 1
      The printing of money is in actually a minor factor. The largest factor is money lending by banks and the extension of credit. The second most being push-cost inflation. Neither of which bitcoin or the gold standard solves. Remember the US was on the gold standard from inception till '71 and there was inflation throughout the whole period.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost-push_inflation

      Also since gold is a commodity there is tremendous amount of risk like any other commodity. Gold has not recovered from the massive loss of the early 80s. 30 years latter it's still not a the price of $2395/ounce. Had we had a gold standard the US would have suffered a massive loss.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_price_in_USD.png

    14. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Teancum · · Score: 1, Informative

      The issue you are addressing here is a known issue, and something that anybody holding Bitcoins should be well aware of. Sadly, you don't mention that this "inflation" is kept in check by the fact that the growth in the number of Bitcoins is fixed by definition. Unlike the U.S. Dollar which can have Ben Bernanke type a few keys on the computer in his office and produce several trillion dollars, Bitcoins can't be "minted" enmass by any one person at once. Their rate of production is fixed and limited... where the "Bitcoin economy" more than takes that rate of production into stride.

      This "30% annual rate" of growth is not a geometric progression, but an arithmetic increase of a fixed amount. Furthermore, the number of new coins "minted" is built into the software to gradually decrease to become practically non-existent. In other words, over time this growth diminishes. The philosophy here is that the growth of the economy in terms of adopters would be larger than the rate of increase in the money supply.... which generally has been true for the past year or so. As to if that growth in the number of users is sustainable is another question entirely.

    15. Re:Hoarding's the point. by tmosley · · Score: 2

      Who cares if a currency is hoarded? That is the point of currency--to allow people to save as much as they like without taking real goods out of the economy and sitting on them.

      All sitting on currency does is drive down prices, which sets up an equilibrium that makes people spend (ie "look how cheap that is! I'm going to use some of my savings to buy that and let it improve my life"). The currency itself is worthless. All it is is a placeholder, telling society how much you have contributed. What is IMPORTANT is the good or service you fed into the economy to get your currency. The economy will either consume the fruits of your labor immediately, squandering them (low interest rate environment), or it will invest them in capital intensive projects with a high likelihood of payoff (high interest rate environment), or somewhere between, based on society's preference. Of course, when you have an arbitrary authority like a central bank setting interest rates (pushing on a string), things go AWRY. As we have seen.

    16. Re:Hoarding's the point. by tmosley · · Score: 1

      Not exactly. Bitcoins buy more now than they used to. Why? Because the user base has expanded. Monetary base can expand rapidly without hyperinflation IF the number of users of said currency is increasing. In this case, it is best to look at the average amount of bitcoins per bitcoin owner. In the case of hyperinflation in national currencies, the number of users of said currencies were either static or falling rapidly (as users fled the falling currency and began using other alternatives like gold backed dollars in Weimar, or gold in Zimbabwe).

      But yes, we will see hyperinflation in the US, and likely around the world as competitive devaluation proceeds. Look to gold and commodities to see the effects of this truly genocidal policy.

    17. Re:Hoarding's the point. by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      You're right that the gold standard doesn't solve the problem of banking, since gold is not easily stored and used. But Bitcoin has solved the problem of lending by banks. Most of those dumb enough to put their Bitcoins in a bank have lost at least half to theft in the last few months.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    18. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Red+Flayer · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Who cares if a currency is hoarded? That is the point of currency--to allow people to save as much as they like without taking real goods out of the economy and sitting on them.

      You have a very bad understanding of the purpose of currency.

      Currency does not exist solely as a store of wealth, that is only one purpose, and not even the most important one.

      The most important purpose of currency is in providing liquidity to allow for greater freedom in making economic transactions.

      All sitting on currency does is drive down prices, which sets up an equilibrium that makes people spend (ie "look how cheap that is! I'm going to use some of my savings to buy that and let it improve my life").

      False. The reduction of currency in circulation due to hoarding also inhibits production, as producers realize that holding on to cash is better than producing goods. This leads to a deflationary spiral, with disastrous results. We've been through this. It sucked. It's the primary reason we have managed currencies.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    19. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Znork · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The issue is that there are two realities of the purpose of currency.

      On one hand there is the natural way that most people use it and understand it; as a means for transactions and a store of value.

      On the other hand there is the way that certain economic schools want to use it, some for personal gain, some for misguided theories.

      The trouble comes when the first group understand what the second group intend, because the first group actually do want a store of value and they are going to get it even if that means hoarding limited real-world resources instead of pieces of organic fibre. Which ends up with the pieces of fibre being worth their actual resource value as the faith in them is lost.

      The idea that deflation itself leads to hoarding is flawed. Many economic sectors suffer constant deflation; computing and electronics are a good example. When people know that prices will fall, people invest in products as they are needed instead of before they are needed. That is not a disaster, that is a basis for a stable real economy.

      Having people buy things before they are needed (to 'stimulate' and create non-existent jobs) means they are constantly undermining future demand. As soon as a dip comes it's magnified as purchases are not actually needed, they have already been made to get rid of unstable currency, so there is already a large overcapacity and a store of products that will easily let the consuming side forego purchases for a long time.

    20. Re:Hoarding's the point. by KDR_11k · · Score: 1

      Buyers for Bitcoins probably compare the amount they buy to the possible maximum of Bitcoins, not the currently mined ones. Who cares that the active money supply is increasing when everybody knows what the final money supply will be? The mining of new Bitcoins will stop at some point and can never be continued past that point so people aren't worried about Weimar-style hyperinflation where the money supply grows at an exponential rate for who knows how long.

      If the pool of possible Bitcoins were to increase suddenly then the value of Bitcoins would drop massively.

      --
      Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
    21. Re:Hoarding's the point. by benjamindees · · Score: 2

      That's exactly the point. Speculators don't care, because they can buy and hold until the (monetary) inflation ends and deflation kicks in. People who just wish to use the currency for trade, however, can't hoard and don't want to use a currency that fluctuates in value over the short term.

      Contrary to this information warfare you hear from propagandists like Krugman, speculators and hoarders actually help to stabilize a currency, which makes it more attractive to use for trade. In order to support vastly more trade, Bitcoin needs more hoarders, not fewer.

      If you conservatively value the Bitcoin network as equivalent to a company like Paypal, the long term price trend is much, much higher than where it is now. Unfortunately not enough people are willing to make this bet and so there aren't enough buyers to keep the price stable in the face of 30%+ inflation.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    22. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

      No, bitcoin is precisely the equivalent of M0.

      If the fractional reserve banking system can make $980 billion physical USD bills into $9.5 trillion dollars, then the very same system will make 7.2 million bitcoins into 72 million bitcoin credits. Don't confuse the actual currency in circulation with whatever the money multiplier produces.

      This is only true if people replicate the existing system of bank money on top of Bitcoin (besides, you are misrepresenting the way the USD system works; it does not turn physical USD into a larger amount; instead, it turns reserves at the Fed into a larger amount of cash deposits at commercial banks; physical money is an irrelevant implementation detail). M0 is reserves at the central bank, and nobody except banks trades with reserves, because nobody except banks has accounts at the central bank. Instead, people have bank accounts and paper money.

      So for your statement to hold, the future Bitcoin-based economy would have to have a banking sector where the majority of the population actually does not use Bitcoins at all, or only in very small quantities. Personally, I find that unlikely given the way Bitcoin is marketed.

      On the other hand, it would be very ironic to see a complete repeat of the history of money: banks built on Bitcoin, terrible bank runs and crashes due to lack of regulation, the re-introduction of regulation and Bitcoin central banks, and finally, when even that becomes untenable again, a removal of the Bitcoin standard. Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it, and all that.

    23. Re:Hoarding's the point. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      A simple example:
      In a town live 3 people, and together they have 10 gold pices.
      A has 9 gold pieces.
      B has 1 gold piece.
      C has nothing, but works once every 14 days for A and earns one gold piece.
      The only way that he can buy a bread from B is by promising him he will pay in 15 days after he has worked for A.
      Obviously As hording is not only a pain for C but prevents B making business, unless B risks not to get payed.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    24. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Alioth · · Score: 1

      No, absolutely wrong.

      To put it simply: too much inflation is bad, deflation is always bad, and a little bit of inflation is good. Money isn't anything special, it's subject to the laws of demand and supply like anything else, and inflation is just a reflection of the supply and demand for money. Inflation boils down to "too much money seeking too few goods" (or services). Deflation therefore can be defined as "too little money seeking too many goods", in other words, an oversupply of goods in the economy.

      The thing is with inflation is people are encouraged to spend rather than hoard, because if you hoard your wealth slowly falls. With deflation the opposite happens. It doesn't work as you state at all, once you have deflation people think "why spend now when I can spend tomorrow and get it for less" reducing demand for goods in the economy, which leads to more deflation, which leads to more "why spend now..." and so on, the deflationary spiral which is incredibly hard to break. So everyone's hoarding money and no one's spending, which is no more fun than not actually having the money in the first place. Even those who *want* to spend the money can't because goods producers have deduced it's more profitable just to hoard money instead of making goods. And thus the cycle sustains.

      This is why when it looked like a deflationary spiral was going to start up in the UK in 2008/2009, the Bank of England embarked on a programme of "quantitative easing", or in English, printing money, to make sure we didn't get into this deflationary spiral and stagnation.

    25. Re:Hoarding's the point. by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Look at the design of Bitcoin, though. It's designed so that there will only ever be X amount in existence. After that, then no more. As more and more people us it (assuming they do), then that will cause mass deflation, and increase in the value, to the point where it will be far better to hoard the bitcoins rather than spend them.

    26. Re:Hoarding's the point. by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Contrary to this information warfare you hear from propagandists like Krugman, speculators and hoarders actually help to stabilize a currency, which makes it more attractive to use for trade. In order to support vastly more trade, Bitcoin needs more hoarders, not fewer.

      So wait, in order to facilitate trade, you need more people who are unwilling to part with their coins? Yeah, I'm sure that'll cause the bitcoins to just fly.

      Forgive me if I place more stock in the thoughts of a Nobel laureate Economist than you.

    27. Re:Hoarding's the point. by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Who cares if a currency is hoarded?

      Those who wish to use the currency for trade.

      That is the point of currency--to allow people to save as much as they like without taking real goods out of the economy and sitting on them.

      No, the point of currency is to facilitate trade; to have something of fixed value that can be exchanged instead of having to rely on the barter system.

    28. Re:Hoarding's the point. by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      I think you're assuming that fractional reserve banking will actually work in Bitcoin. From what I remember about it, there can only be about 21 million bitcoins, ever.

    29. Re:Hoarding's the point. by zill · · Score: 1

      besides, you are misrepresenting the way the USD system works; it does not turn physical USD into a larger amount

      I chose my words very carefully. I never implied that physical USD can be turned into larger amount. Please read what I said again.

      If the fractional reserve banking system can make $980 billion physical USD bills into $9.5 trillion dollars, then the very same system will make 7.2 million bitcoins into 72 million bitcoin credits.

      Obviously physical USD bills != USD dollars, and in the same sense, bitcoins != bitcoin credits. I made the distinction very clear by my choice of words.

      This is only true if people replicate the existing system of bank money on top of Bitcoin

      Sorry but that's not my assumption. Fractional reserve banking is not just a property of the current banking system. It's a fact of life.

      It's really unfortunate that the economists branded the "money multiplier" as an economic phenomenon, even though it is not exclusive to the field of economics. Please allow me to illiterate my point with a few examples:

      1) Bob opens a car rental company in a town of 100. He is hugely optimistic and fills his lot with 100 cars. He then sends fliers to each resident promising that there will be a car waiting for them at all times. Unfortunately for Bob, 90 of his cars ends up never being used. John opens a competing car rental company in the same town with only 10 cars, and he makes the exact same promise to each resident. Needless to say, Bob's company cannot compete and goes into bankruptcy.

      2) Bob opens a hosting company with 100 servers. 100 clients signs up each renting a server. Only 10% of the CPU, memory, and bandwidth ends up getting utilized at each server. John opens a hosting company with 10 servers and sells 100 virtualized servers. All of Bob's customers switch over to John because he is 90% cheaper. All of John's servers end up being utilized at 100%, and the clients are all happy because they saved 90% of the cost while getting the same thing.

      In both examples, the "money multiplier" was 10, even though no money and no banks are involved. In both examples Bob lost the competition because he does not understand the principle that people don't need a service 100% of the time. People don't rent cars 24/7. People don't visit websites 24/7. People don't buy things 24/7. It's physically impossible. People need to eat, sleep, relax.

      3) Bob holds 100 bitcoins in his wallet. John puts 100 bitcoins into a bitcoin bank to collect interest. The bank keeps only 10% of the deposits in house, and lends out the other 90%. 50 years later both men retire. Bob has exactly 100 bitcoins, while John has 1000 bitcoins due to compounding interest.
      By holding 100 bitcoins in his wallet ready to spend at any time, Bob is assuming that he does not need to sleep, eat, or do anything else other than spend his bitcoins. This assumption is obviously wrong, and it has cost him greatly. The entire opportunity cost of those 100 bitcoins over 50 years were lost because Bob assumed he will be spending them 24/7 when that's obviously impossible. John on the other hand, correctly assumed that he only needs his bitcoins at particular instances, i.e. when he's actually buying something. At any other time the bitcoins are useless to him, so he can profit from this idle period by lending them out via banks.

      Regardless of how bitcoins are marketed or how it works, a bitcoin banking sector will develop, and everyone will start using it because the people who boycott the banking system will not be able to compete with those who do. The market will eventually weed them out just like how it weeded out Bob's two inefficient businesses in the above examples.

    30. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

      Sorry, dude. You have no clue of what you're writing about. I'm not gonna do line-by-line, as it'd be a waste of my time, I'll only mention a couple things.

      Computing and electronics suffer from price deflation. But they are commodities, not currencies. Currency deflation and commodity price deflation are two very different beasts.

      And I have no idea what your misguided view is on what "most people" vs "certain economic schools" view currency as. You say most people view it as a means for transactions and a store of value. That's exactly what I wrote in my post -- liquidity == fluid mean of transactions. Just because you don't understand the vocabulary used doesn't mean that I'm wrong... it just means that you lack sufficient education to discuss the subject at a high level without wasting extraordinary amounts of time on defining terms and sorting out misunderstandings due to misunderstood terms.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    31. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

      besides, you are misrepresenting the way the USD system works; it does not turn physical USD into a larger amount

      I chose my words very carefully. I never implied that physical USD can be turned into larger amount. Please read what I said again.

      If the fractional reserve banking system can make $980 billion physical USD bills into $9.5 trillion dollars, then the very same system will make 7.2 million bitcoins into 72 million bitcoin credits.

      Obviously physical USD bills != USD dollars, and in the same sense, bitcoins != bitcoin credits. I made the distinction very clear by my choice of words.

      Right back to you ;)

      The banking system does not turn an amount of physical bills into a larger amount of dollars. This view of the banking system is shared by nobody. Most economists would say you are wrong because s/physical bills/reserves/. But that's a distortion of the truth, too ;)

      In fact, as Modern Monetary Theory clearly illustrates, it would be more accurate to say that the banking system maintains a very large amount of dollars in deposits, most of which originated in loans, which in turn are backed by the regulatorily mandated amount of bank capital (as per the Basel accords). In addition, the system keeps a significantly smaller amount of reserves at the central bank as part of the payment settlement system. In most countries, the regulatory rules demand that the amount of reserves is somehow tied to the amount of deposits, so that an increase in deposits also causes an increase in reserves. However, not all countries have such a rule. In those latter countries, the amount of reserves is determined entirely by the liquidity preferences of banks.

      This is only true if people replicate the existing system of bank money on top of Bitcoin

      Sorry but that's not my assumption. Fractional reserve banking is not just a property of the current banking system. It's a fact of life.
      (...)
      Regardless of how bitcoins are marketed or how it works, a bitcoin banking sector will develop, and everyone will start using it because the people who boycott the banking system will not be able to compete with those who do. The market will eventually weed them out just like how it weeded out Bob's two inefficient businesses in the above examples.

      Ah yes. You're right: if bitcoins were widely adopted, then such a banking sector would develop. Still, it's ironic, don't you think? People who have an ideological distaste for the existing system invent something to replace it. Then, assuming they win, they will proceed to reinvent (over time, of course) the existing system on top of their replacement.

      It's the old "Those who don't know history ..." thing all over again.

    32. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      Krugman's got a point - the real value of bitcoin is that it's a lottery ticket. To buy one bitcoin, you pay about the price of a fast food meal. Then you back it up and forget about it for a few years. In the one-in-a-billion chance that 20 years from now the entire world's economy is being transacted in bitcoins, you'll be a multibillionaire.

      Oh, so it's a Ponzi Scheme?

    33. Re:Hoarding's the point. by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      The cause of deflation isn't the lack of money printing. The cause is physical reality. Using a monetary system that, instead, attempts to deny physical reality will end in a much larger failure down the road. All money printing can do is delay this inevitability.

      Look, deflation isn't a bad thing. Deflation is just the price of things going down, as technology improves and resources become more abundant. Why would you complain about that? That's the entire reason that people invest their time and energy into creating new technologies in the first place: to make life better. Hell, it's the only reason people do any work at all.

      What monetary inflation does instead, is it robs those people of the fruits of their labor, and uses it to subsidize government mouth-pieces or pointless fraudulent warfare, or misallocation of resources by central planners or the staging of fake alien invasions. Can you see why Paul Krugman would be in favor of that?

      You're making the mistake of assuming that hoarding Bitcoins prevents trade. It doesn't. Bitcoins can be infinitely divided. You can trade with 0.0000001 Bitcoin just as easily as you can with 5. The important thing is that price changes should follow as closely as possible the change in productive capacity of the entire economy. And the way to accomplish this is to let the market decide how much a Bitcoin is really worth, free of central planning.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    34. Re:Hoarding's the point. by Znork · · Score: 1

      The claimed 'danger' of currency deflation is that consumers will postpone purchases and lower aggregate demand. Specific sectors demonstrating constant deflation merely indicate that purchases of goods in an environment where prices constantly falls does not mean purchases postponed indefinitely, indicating a demand baseline and that a prolonged period of deflation would stabilize once the stimulus and inflation blown bubbles finish deflating.

      While currency deflation might make investments in productive capacity less palatable for a time, as compared to value stores, their profitability would eventually stabilize as well, catering to actual demand instead of demand taken from the future.

      And no, vocabulary differences don't mean you're wrong (and as the various economic schools can't even agree on the definition of inflation vocabulary differences are inherent to economic discussions). But the state of the current economic system and the huge inventory of produced goods, like housing, that nobody would have wanted had they actually had to pay for it rather suggests you're wrong.

  8. Re:Bitcoin by ModernGeek · · Score: 1

    That doesn't look like a standard 115AC outlet. Maybe it's 220 or European? I'm surprised that his landlord hasn't said anything about it.

    --
    Sig: I stole this sig.
  9. Keynesian? by MicktheMech · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Qualifying Krugman as a "prominent Keynesian economist" is like calling Stephen Hawking a "prominent Einsteinian physicist". I call shenanigans.

    1. Re:Keynesian? by very1silent · · Score: 1, Insightful

      There's a large chunk of the economics profession which exists to state that for the rich to own everything, end the rest of us to be serfs is the natural order of things, and is truly in everybody's best interest. They go by various names, such as Freshwater economists or the Austrian school.

    2. Re:Keynesian? by msauve · · Score: 2

      If he were really a Keynesian, he'd be encouraging the Federal Reserve to get busy mining bitcoins.

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    3. Re:Keynesian? by Jonner · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Qualifying Krugman as a "prominent Keynesian economist" is like calling Stephen Hawking a "prominent Einsteinian physicist".

      I call shenanigans.

      That analogy would make sense only if the theories of John Maynard Keynes were as universally accepted as those of Einstein. Economics never has been and probably never will be as testable a science (if it's a science at all) as physics.

    4. Re:Keynesian? by Dave+Emami · · Score: 1

      Qualifying Krugman as a "prominent Keynesian economist" is like calling Stephen Hawking a "prominent Einsteinian physicist". I call shenanigans.

      A better analogy would be "like calling John Edward a 'prominent television psychic.'"

      --

      "The Greens lynched a hacker in Chicago. Last month, but I think the body's still hanging from the old Water Tower."
    5. Re:Keynesian? by geekoid · · Score: 4, Insightful

      But you can learn from historic reactions to varies pressure. For example Austerity has never gotten anyone out of a recession. Now, if people would look at that, look at it's history and act upon that, we wouldn't be having these issue in Washington.

      So the testing part is looking at previous success a failure, and the prediction side would be using the previously success as a reaction to current economic situation and seeing the results.

      You can't really do it in the lab, yet, but you can apply it.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    6. Re:Keynesian? by mwasham · · Score: 1

      Well how many recessions have been caused from over extension of debt? Sounds like your theory is missing some sample data.

    7. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      You know this is the first time I have ever heard anyone call Krugman a member of the Austrian School of economics.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    8. Re:Keynesian? by Dahamma · · Score: 1

      Yeah, seriously? Ron Paul = Austrian School devotee. Paul Krugman is pretty close to the opposite there.

    9. Re:Keynesian? by Dahamma · · Score: 1

      Now, if people would look at that, look at it's history and act upon that, we wouldn't be having these issue in Washington.

      So far NOTHING about the US reaction to the recession has resembled Austerity (and in fact you could go back 100 years and not find a good example of Austerity in the US. And early info on Obama's speech today has that it's not going to start any time soon...

      Though, rereading your post, there is a chance that you are referring to the conservative/tea party platform of massive cuts to taxes, spending, and basic benefits (ie Austerity) and how it's deadlocking the US government given the current Administration's plans, in which case I agree with you :)

    10. Re:Keynesian? by Dahamma · · Score: 2

      Ok, but if Krugman is a television psychic, his Friedman equivalents are television evangelists. At least the psychic knows what he's saying is bullshit, and he doesn't try to fleece the masses listening to him.

    11. Re:Keynesian? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's an absurdly vague statement that, at least, requires tomes of supporting evidence.

    12. Re:Keynesian? by superwiz · · Score: 3, Interesting

      For example Austerity has never gotten anyone out of a recession.

      Wow! That is incredibly untrue. Shrinking government spending (while deregulating private activity) caused a boom in China. It has also made Germany the only stable economy in Western Europe in the recent years. Austerity itself is a loaded word. It's not that the government has to just cut the money it spends. It has to also get out of the way. For example, cutting government expenses by shifting them to the private sector, is not going to solve anything. It will only increase regulatory costs. But cutting government expenses by cutting government involvement has been beneficial in most economies in which government had previously was TOO involved in economic activity.

      --
      Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    13. Re:Keynesian? by TheSync · · Score: 1

      "For example Austerity has never gotten anyone out of a recession."

      So why was there a huge private economic boom in the US in the decade after WWII when government spending was drastically cut, and government-provided employment (of soldiers) was reduced?

    14. Re:Keynesian? by bonch · · Score: 1

      That position is far too balanced and rational. I suggest we drive a troupe of vans around the nation, shoveling piles of money at things until the problems go away. Ooh, Dancing With The Stars is on!

    15. Re:Keynesian? by bonch · · Score: 1

      At least the psychic knows what he's saying is bullshit, and he doesn't try to fleece the masses listening to him.

      Are you serious?

    16. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 0

      Well, that probably explains why nobody has ever called him that before. However, Krugman's economic advice is always for the government to do those things that will help the rich stay rich while making everyone else poorer.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    17. Re:Keynesian? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Austerity has never gotten anyone out of a recession. .

      Read up on the 1920 depression and educate yourself.

      Thomas Woods. "Warren Harding and the Forgotten Depression of 1920"
      http://www.firstprinciplesjournal.com/articles.aspx?article=1322&theme=home&loc=b

    18. Re:Keynesian? by brainzach · · Score: 5, Informative

      The over extension of debt can be corrected by devaluing the the currency. You pump more money into the economy during the process, which creates jobs and stimulates economic activity. It will make your exports more attractive to other nations and while decreasing the demand of imports, which improves the trade balance.

      This works and is how the US got out of the great depression with help from the New Deal and WW2.

    19. Re:Keynesian? by mwasham · · Score: 0

      So take the few remaining dollars from the poor and middle class and hand it to the rich to trickle back down? Liberals always claim to be for the poor but they don't realize that keynesian economics does the most damage to the poor and benefits the rich. And NO that is not what got us out of the great depression. It certainly prolonged it though.

    20. Re:Keynesian? by brainzach · · Score: 2

      That only works if there is demand in the private sector for jobs which occurs in a growing economy. During a recession, cutting public jobs will just increase unemployment which lowers economic activity.

    21. Re:Keynesian? by brainzach · · Score: 2

      So take the few remaining dollars from the poor and middle class and hand it to the rich to trickle back down? Liberals always claim to be for the poor but they don't realize that keynesian economics does the most damage to the poor and benefits the rich. And NO that is not what got us out of the great depression. It certainly prolonged it though.

      You are describing supply side economics which is a conservative idea.

      Stimulus can be in the form of creating public works projects that create jobs for the poor. If the rich are sitting idle on their money, you can tax it and spend it on the poor who will spend the money on goods and services, which will create more jobs as businesses need to hire to keep up with demand.

    22. Re:Keynesian? by exentropy · · Score: 1

      So the testing part is looking at previous success a failure, and the prediction side would be using the previously success as a reaction to current economic situation and seeing the results.

      Not all economists view their study in this empirical manner. For instance, the Austrians view the subject more like mathematics; they deduce their principles from basic axioms. The Keynesians (e.g. Krugman) study it in that way you just described.

      This difference, though seemingly trivial, does in fact have important implications. For example, the minimum wage debate is fundamentally based on the distinction: the Austrians think that a lower bound on wages will create unemployment because all those whose value (technically, marginal revenue product) falls below the minimum wage will be unemployed, while the Keynesians require empirical evidence to support the claim that minimum wage laws have adverse effects on the economy.

    23. Re:Keynesian? by felix+rayman · · Score: 0

      You are an idiot.

      Shrinking government spending (while deregulating private activity) caused a boom in China.

      China did not shrink government spending. It massively increased spending in 2009 when its economy began to slow down. It also was not in a recession, it was growing by at least 6% a year throughout the world economic crisis. So you are citing non-existent Chinese austerity to claim that a boom in China, which wasn't in a recession, is evidence that austerity has gotten someone out of a recession. That is idiotic. You are an idiot. Anyone who thinks anything you are saying makes any sense at all is an idiot.

      As for Germany, it implemented austerity measures a year ago, after it had seen its GDP growth go from negative to around 2%. After it adopted the austerity measures, when it was not in a recession, its GDP growth trended down and last quarter it grew at a rate of only 0.1%, which is almost a recessionary level. So you point to austerity measures that have gotten a country close to being in a recession as evidence that austerity has gotten someone out of a recession. That is an idiotic argument. You are an idiot.

    24. Re:Keynesian? by trout007 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I like how you write devalue the currency like it's nothing. You do understand that by devaluing the currency you destroy the life savings of the elderly and people on fixed income. You basically rob all of the people that lived within their means and saved their whole life to bail out those that borrowed to the hilt and lived like there is no tomorrow.

      And we never recovered from the great depression until after WWII and we cut government spending WAY down and fired millions of soldiers. WWII only got us out of the depression if you think the way to get rid of unemployment is to ship millions of unemployed people overseas. Look how people actually lived during WWII. It was terrible with rationing and cost controls on all sorts of products.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    25. Re:Keynesian? by elbonia · · Score: 1

      Since this is the large part of the economics profession you will have no problem stating the names of 3 major economists which state that view.

    26. Re:Keynesian? by elbonia · · Score: 3, Informative
      It couldn't have prolonged it since "The Means to Prosperity" came out in '33 which was the height of the depression; his ideas didn't influence US policy until '39. However both Germany and Sweden implemented his ideas immediately and made a quick recovery.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes#During_the_Great_Depression

    27. Re:Keynesian? by Dahamma · · Score: 2

      Why would you think that? He's been against the Bush tax cuts, pro regulation of the mortgage industry and financial markets, anti Wall Street bailouts, pro massive recession/job package expenditure, pro health care reform, pro tariffs on Chinese imports until they stop messing with their currency, and believe social democracy is the direction the US should be heading. There will always be exceptions, but you will not be able to find 1/10th the examples of supporting big business over social programs.

    28. Re:Keynesian? by drsmithy · · Score: 2

      [...] massive cuts to taxes, spending, and basic benefits (ie Austerity) [...]

      "Massive tax cuts" have nothing to do with any definition of "Austerity".

    29. Re:Keynesian? by Dahamma · · Score: 1

      John Edwards? Yeah, he's a nut job and/or fraud, but his goal is to get on TV and make money from the TV network paying for his show. Most of the TV evangelists' goals are to get on TV and convince thousands of people to send them their hard earned cash for their own personal motives and gain.

    30. Re:Keynesian? by Dahamma · · Score: 1

      The selective choice of text from my post is your doing, not mine. Cuts to benefits is Austerity, and I never said anything otherwise. If *everything* the tea party represented was Austerity, I don't think I would have been questioning his meaning...

    31. Re:Keynesian? by Maltheus · · Score: 1

      Austerity has never gotten anyone out of a recession.

      Then why is it we only remember the recessions where we spend like drunken sailors? Anyone who thinks we can spend our way out of a debt crisis should be placed in a hole with a shovel so they can get right to work on digging themselves out.

    32. Re:Keynesian? by Teancum · · Score: 1

      That only works if there is demand in the private sector for jobs which occurs in a growing economy. During a recession, cutting public jobs will just increase unemployment which lowers economic activity.

      Over the short term, you are correct. Cutting public jobs will increase unemployment, particularly if cutting those jobs doesn't really resolve the issues that are hampering business growth and development. Since for most people's view that a recession is just a couple years long anyway, that is short term thinking.

      The real key here to get the government to get out of the way so entrepreneurial development will happen. That doesn't necessarily imply that government workers have to be fired, although if they have nothing to do because they aren't enforcing non-existent regulations their value as being employed by the government is as useless as a government agency smashing windows and then paying people to repair them. See also the Parable of the broken window.

      That makes as much economic sense as paying people to move a mountain of rocks from one place to another, and then paying people to move them all back.

    33. Re:Keynesian? by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      I'm astonished at how absolutely backwards the pro-Bitcoin people are getting this.

      Deflation benefits creditors; inflation benefits creditors. Deflation benefits those who can afford to sit on their wealth, not those who receive little more than they consume. This is pretty basic economics.

    34. Re:Keynesian? by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      Deflation benefits creditors; inflation benefits debtors.

    35. Re:Keynesian? by FoolishOwl · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Because all the other major industrial powers had been crushed in the war, giving US-based industries an unparalleled opportunity for expansion and near complete control of global markets.

      Also, social spending soared after World War II. There was less wealth going to war, and more to infrastructure improvements and individual consumption. That's the opposite of austerity.

    36. Re:Keynesian? by moortak · · Score: 1

      As long as your debt is denominated in your currency. If I'm paid in the rapidly inflating currency and my debt is denominated in a different stable currency I would be boned as a debtor.

      --
      Xavier Rabourdin for president 2012
    37. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 0

      These are all things that will make the rich richer and the poor more dependent on the government. Big business loves social programs and regulations. Regulations always favor the large corporations over smaller companies, if for no other reason than that large corporations can more easily afford the expense of the paperwork that any regulation will entail.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    38. Re:Keynesian? by PhreakOfTime · · Score: 1

      You do understand that on the planet Earth, if you actually do this, you will indeed come out from the hole by continually digging?

      There is not infinite ground beneath you in reality, using a metaphor that assumes that there is makes no sense.

    39. Re:Keynesian? by superwiz · · Score: 1

      Not if the public jobs you cut are actively hindering private activity.

      --
      Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    40. Re:Keynesian? by superwiz · · Score: 1
      The move to market economy in China (in the 90's) started with the speech which could be summarized as "we ran out of money" by Chinese Premier. At that point the government was. Private enterprises was allowed (ie, not suppressed through absolute regulation).

      You are an idiot.

      No, you. Germany is still the only country not slipping to malaise of the rest of the west. And it is precisely because it implemented the austerity measures. Oh, and did I mention that you are still an idiot?

      --
      Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    41. Re:Keynesian? by larry+bagina · · Score: 1

      If you fire 10 people, 9 may sit on the couch eating cheetos and collecting unemployment benefits for the next 2 years[1]. But 1 will start his (or her) own business and increase economic activity.

      (Of course, if these are government employees, all 10 may sit on the couch eating cheetos)

      1. Paying people not to work somehow stimulates the economy.

      --
      Do you even lift?

      These aren't the 'roids you're looking for.

    42. Re:Keynesian? by m.ducharme · · Score: 1

      What kind of fucking opposite-world do you live in?

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    43. Re:Keynesian? by Omestes · · Score: 1

      Shrinking government spending (while deregulating private activity) caused a boom in China.

      A) I don't think China's version of deregulating has quite the meaning you want...

      B) Would you like to be a worker bee in China? I sure as hell wouldn't, nor would most people, thus it is a horrible example.

      C) Germany is very different than the U.S. For one they rely less on publicly traded companies. They also actually MAKE stuff, and then export it. Also, from what I read, a lot of German CEOs actually strive to be ethical, and responsible. Furthermore, Germany is currently "stimulating" a large chunk of Europe.

      D) "Too involved"? Compared to who? You'll find that most of the countries in this world, that are doing well, have very involved Governments, most of which have a socialist bent. Libertarian utopias, on the other hand, are few and far between.

      E) Wait, removing the Government from companies is the key... and you cite China? Huh.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    44. Re:Keynesian? by Omestes · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I personally think people pick their favorite "school" based on their pre-existing views and agendas, and not on any actual merits of their philosophies.

      Also, the way you put it sort of hurts the Austrians, at least in my eyes. Theory is useless without observations. Where observations are somewhat useful with the judicious use of statistics and large data sets.

      Personally I think both of them are completely useless. Both of them, applied, have caused a decent amount of harm. Neither of them, applied, have seemed to do the slightest bit of good. And generally people who vocally subscribe, and show brand loyalty, to any of them are as idiotic as people who declare themselves as following one of the the two established political agendas. Its just as arbitrary. Reading debates about which of the various schools of economics is gospel leads to the conclusion that economics has more in common with religion than with science. There is no way to conclusively falsify any claim, and thus the argument never, ever, can have an actual objective conclusion.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    45. Re:Keynesian? by tmosley · · Score: 1

      Sorry to say we do in fact live in Bizzarro world. Large corporations love regulations because it crowds out new competition. They love social programs because they often get paid that way (witness JPMorgan administering SNAP nationwide).

      In general, everything you think you know about human action is wrong. Natural reactions are always the wrong ones (getting angry when others are angry at you, lying to cover mistakes, etc). The only way to clearly perceive the world is to step back and study some philosophy. State some premises and derive your views from those. Make damn sure they aren't false. It's tough, but it worked for me. I did it and saw the truth of what is going on in the world, and have made very large amounts of money with very little risk because of it.

    46. Re:Keynesian? by Dahamma · · Score: 2

      No, these are the same types of policies that FDR through Johnson (and even Nixon in many cases) followed to various extents and resulted in the greatest growth of the middle class in any country in the history of the world.

      You would prefer to return to pre-1930 or post 2000 policies that completely screw the middle class? Awesome.

    47. Re:Keynesian? by Myopic · · Score: 1

      If by "destroy" you mean "reduce by the fraction of inflation", then maybe; and even then, only if you ignore all those gigantic positive economics benefits which come along with the inflation.

    48. Re:Keynesian? by The+Dawn+Of+Time · · Score: 1

      I much prefer the idea of taking from the rich to to bail out those who borrowed to the hilt and lived like there is no tomorrow.

      I DESERVE MY NANNY!

    49. Re:Keynesian? by Ensign+Nemo · · Score: 1

      Are you German, do you live in Germany, do you speak/read German and can follow the news? If yes to any of those, I will listen to what you say. If not, then, well, you are welcome to your opinion. While I don't outright dismiss it, austerity is not high on my list of guesses on Germany's economic situation. And let's be honest, we're all guessing.

      No, Germany is doing well because of all the exports to China.

      Note: I speak and read German. I've had this conversation with German friends of mine who currently live in Germany so I dont' feel I'm completely the economic equivalent of a 72 hour journalist. (A 72 hr journalist is someone who goes somewhere for 3 days and thinks he understands everything about the place. )

      I would not put 'austerity' and 'China' in the same sentence. The Chinese government is spending money like a sailor on a 3 day leave at port. The amount of money their spending on infrastructure along is embarrassing. Highways, bridges, dams, ...

      Also, China's move to a market economy can be more aptly described as 'Ooooh, capitalism brings in lots of cash. Let's do that but with 'Chinese characteristics' (read: capitalistic but not democratic.)

      Also note: I speak and read Chinese as well and lived there. I've also had this conversation with Chinese people in China.

    50. Re:Keynesian? by Risen888 · · Score: 2

      You pump more money into the economy during the process, which creates jobs

      No it doesn't.

      --
      Hey, I finally got my first freak! Took you long enough!
    51. Re:Keynesian? by Red+Flayer · · Score: 2

      Shrinking government spending (while deregulating private activity) caused a boom in China. It has also made Germany the only stable economy in Western Europe in the recent years.

      You attribute complicated situations to a single cause; it's a very simple-minded argument, and misses a host of other reasons that have caused Germany to be very stable and China to undergo their boom.

      Germany: A big reason for the economic stability is Germany is due to their very high level of public spending, focused on effective programs -- like socialized medicine. Another would be their strong support of labor interests, which has propped up aggregate demand. Germany's public spending, even after their recent slight reduction in spending, is still far higher than the US, or even the UK, as a percentage of GDP.

      China: Really? You lay China's boom at the foot of reduced government spending? Fiscal decentralization had nothing to do with it? Privatization had nothing to do with it? Massive supplies of cheap labor had nothing to do with it? Massive investment in resource extraction had nothing to do with it?

      Considering Germany spends close to double what the US spends (as a % of GDP, excluding military and debt service), don't you think maybe our problem is not enough government spending on stimulatory efforts?

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    52. Re:Keynesian? by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

      Because the spending we did do was refocused on domestic programs that are stimulatory in nature.

      It's not just how much money is spent. It's also what it's spent on.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    53. Re:Keynesian? by Totenglocke · · Score: 1

      You've clearly never read any of Krugman's god-awful articles. He's always going on about how anyone who's successful needs to be (metaphorically) brutally raped with obscenely high taxes to provide luxuries to those who do nothing to earn it.

      --
      "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." ~Thomas Jefferson
    54. Re:Keynesian? by Totenglocke · · Score: 1

      If by "greatest growth", you mean "extended the Depression by approximately 7 years due to incompetent policies", then sure. The funny thing is that due to global circumstances (such as the US being pretty much the only developed country not devastated by WWII, thus being the main source of goods to the countries that were rebuilding) we grew that much despite incompetent politicians - imagine how much we'd have grown if we hadn't had FDR (aka the worst president in history) fucking things up? Not to mention that without FDR's policies, we wouldn't have the welfare state institutions that caused out nation to go bankrupt as well as the fact that we'd have more rights due to less federal government power.

      --
      "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." ~Thomas Jefferson
    55. Re:Keynesian? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1933 was also when Hitler came into power, that guy had a fairly major impact on the economy of Germany.

    56. Re:Keynesian? by KDR_11k · · Score: 1

      I'm in Germany and there's no real talk about any govt policy really helping against the recession, the talk there is more about the strength of the economy and the unimpacted consumer spending simply letting the economy recover. The only thing that even looks like austerity is how surveys show that the people don't want the govt's tax surplus to be used for tax breaks (which many suspect are just a "bailout" for the liberal party who botched so many publicly important policies that their position in the parliaments is threatened*) and instead want it used for paying off debts after we've seen what debt problems can do to other nations. It's more of a preventative measure to keep debts from impacting the economy than any real austerity. Cuts to social programs within the last decade or so were aimed more at making unemployment unattractive (unemployment benefits were so great that too many people just decided to live the lazy life, those still exist but their numbers have gone down I believe) and making people want jobs instead of living off the dole.

      Some of the govt stabilization programs during the recession helped weather it, the bank bailout loans for example have already been repaid by plenty of banks.

      Our social market economy is seen as another govt-side stabilizer but that's not an active measure to combat the recessions, it's just the way things are structured here.

      Of course all this is how the news report it, not necessarily how the back end looks like.

      *= State level polls even suggest that the Pirate Party may be displacing the liberal party in Berlin. I guess the people who voted liberal for the personal freedoms instead of the economic ones are now going for the Pirate Party instead.

      --
      Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
    57. Re:Keynesian? by Totenglocke · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You do understand that on the planet Earth, if you actually do this, you will indeed come out from the hole by continually digging?

      No, no you will not. What will happen is that eventually you will dig deep enough to reach molten rock and you will die from the heat.

      --
      "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." ~Thomas Jefferson
    58. Re:Keynesian? by trickyD1ck · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Well, it creates lots of government jobs. Too bad that these jobs not only produce anything useful, but hamper the rest of us who are productive.

    59. Re:Keynesian? by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      [quote]This works and is how the US got out of the great depression with help from the New Deal and WW2.[/quote]
      No it didn't. It actually intensified the depression into an even worse event. Before the "new deal" and WWII started the US economy had already started growing again at a non-averaged rate of between 3 and 12% per month. The numbers are there in black and white, all dumping money did was cause the problem to be worse.

      You know, like QE1, QE2, lookin' like QE3, and QE4 on the way. You want doom in pill form? This is it.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    60. Re:Keynesian? by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

      Shrinking government spending (...) has also made Germany the only stable economy in Western Europe in the recent years.

      Funny fact: Germany was (with France) the first country in EMU to violate the Maastricht limits on government deficits. On the other hand, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal used to be within those limits before the GFC and are now going down the drain.

      There may be lots of reasons why Germany has done comparably better than other EMU countries, but shrinking government spending is not one of them. And it's not like Germany is doing so great either: In fact, early warning indicators are pointing down again these days.

    61. Re:Keynesian? by trout007 · · Score: 1

      The problem is they are two different groups. It isn't I ignore the benefits it is that the benefits are given to the undeserving. I am currently watching as my parents and inlaws savings are being demolished. Everything they need to buy is going up. The only thing that got cheaper was housing but they both own their houses outright. They were both savers and lived frugally to have a comfortable retirement. But their wealth is being stolen to bail out banks and people who got houses with no money down and interest only loans.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    62. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 2

      Yes, I would prefer to return to pre-1930 policies where the government did not decide the winners and losers in the economy. I don't know what makes you think that any post-2000 policies bear any resemblance to pre-FDR policies. I would prefer to return to a country that followed the Constitution.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    63. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      You've clearly misunderstood Krugman's articles. He isn't talking about taxing the rich. He is talking about taxing those attempting to become rich. Of course, those are the very people who drive the economy. Of course, Krugman's real position is that we would all be better off if we would let people like him decide every aspect of our lives and just lived as drones supporting our betters (him and those like him).

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    64. Re:Keynesian? by sonicmerlin · · Score: 1

      You have no idea what you're talking about. China dumped 15% of its GDP to jumpstart its economy after the recession. Germany hasn't even reached pre-recession output, and now their economy is beginning to stagnate along with the rest of Europe. The UK is another example of austerity in the middle of a recession leading to economic contraction.

    65. Re:Keynesian? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Germany's response to the Great Recession was not austerity. It was massive automatic stabilizers which preserved employment. In other words classic Keynesism.

      China is completely irrelevant to the Keynesism. A shift from Communism to Capitalism has nothing to do with the appropriate level of government spending in a capitalist economy over a bussiness cycle. It's like arguing that since going from drowning to just drinking water is beneficial, you should always drink less water.

    66. Re:Keynesian? by m.ducharme · · Score: 1

      Actually I did study some philosophy. Formally. And law. And less formally, economics.

      Large corporations only love regulations that crowd out competition. Regulations that protect workers, or break up monopolies (such regs do exist, shocking, I know) are anathema. Where I live, most big corporations don't get to administer social programs, the government does that. Big business accordingly hates those programs, because they have to pay taxes to keep them funded, and because those social programs put upward pressure on wages. Where government programs are managed by the private sector (utilities, mostly) the companies doing the management love it, but no other businesses like that arrangement.

      If big business likes big government, why do so many big businesses outsource their labour to countries with little or no protection for workers? Why do people like the Koch brothers and the Waltons spend billions bankrolling the Tea Party movement? Ultimately, big business wants a government that's just big enough to make laws favourable to business and to be able to enforce those laws at the barrel of a gun. That's it. Anything else better result in a net profit on the balance sheet, or out it goes.

      You don't seem to understand that America does not present a normal version of big government. Big business has controlled the US government for decades now, and they've crafted the kind of big government they want. In other countries, social spending on medicare, for example, means that medical suppliers have to accept the low prices the government sets, not the other way around.

      Your specific examples are correct, but those conditions don't apply in most other Western countries (or at least, not nearly to the extent they do in the US, though that's changing).

      (PS, if you do believe that natural reactions are always wrong, I'd suggest you've still got some learning to do)

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    67. Re:Keynesian? by heathen_01 · · Score: 1

      Inflation is one of the major risks of investing in currency. If you play with snakes don't complain when one of them bites you.

    68. Re:Keynesian? by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      This worked and is how the US got out of the great depression with help from the New Deal and WW2.

      FTFY.

      If you look at economics you should notice that stuff that worked once, not necessarily works once again, and definitely does not work always.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    69. Re:Keynesian? by mwasham · · Score: 1
    70. Re:Keynesian? by trout007 · · Score: 1

      You aren't supposed to invest in currency. If you have a hard money that doesn't inflate over time you don't even have to invest. You can just save and won't lose your purchasing power. This is the big danger with having a fiat currency. People are put on a treadmill where their wealth is constantly being stolen through inflation to pay for things the politicians don't have the guts to pay for with taxes.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    71. Re:Keynesian? by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Not if the public jobs you cut are actively hindering private activity.

      Some private acivity needs to be actively hindered, it's why we have things like health and safety laws, anti-child-labour laws and so on.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    72. Re:Keynesian? by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Libertarian utopias, on the other hand, are few and far between. Nonsense, Somalia's still a thriving free market unhindered by efective government interference.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    73. Re:Keynesian? by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Libertarian utopias, on the other hand, are few and far between.

      Well, Somalis's still a thriving free market barely touched by effective government interference.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    74. Re:Keynesian? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      & could either group ever take the other seriously? If the average, open-minded (pro Laissez-faire) citizen is the victim in this world, and has a victim complex that the state needs to get out; then the state and elite (that control them) have a victor complex, needing or wanting the people to be submissive and 'go and die' or whatever line they use. There's the problem.
      But those with victim complex are open to negotiation and moderation (as we have no power) Those with victor complex see no need for moderation or negotiation as they already have all the power. Those with victim complex have an urgent sense to do something about it at some point (a tipping point viz a viz French revolution) while those with the victor complex see a need to crush such potential uprising or co-opt it etc. It's a dance that resembles population dynamics as far as I can see. The lions thrive as they feast on the deers. Then there's less deers and the deers start to thrive. Except human beings aren't deers - we thrive and subside according to our awareness, knowledge, and understanding of our potential as a collective. The elites thrive by supressing these attritbutes. And on and on....ad infinitum

    75. Re:Keynesian? by Wildclaw · · Score: 1

      You seriously link to Cato in regards to the economy? That is like linking to a neo-nazi site when discussing the holocaust.

    76. Re:Keynesian? by mwasham · · Score: 1

      Posts like this explain why so many people think printing money (stealing) helps in recessions. Just continue to bury your head in the sand and move along troll.

    77. Re:Keynesian? by vaporland · · Score: 1

      "real psychics" don't bullshit, and they do exist. Real economists? They don't exist and they do bullshit.

      --
      Ask Me About... The 80's!
    78. Re:Keynesian? by heathen_01 · · Score: 1

      And yet some people do (your parents and inlaws)...

    79. Re:Keynesian? by Spunkee · · Score: 0

      You've clearly never read any of Krugman's god-awful articles. He's always going on about how anyone who's successful needs to be (metaphorically) brutally raped with obscenely high taxes to provide luxuries to those who do nothing to earn it.

      In my experience, everyone I know that has "earned" their large accumulation of wealth had some seed money given to them. Usually a large inheritance, court settlement, death insurance payout, being born into a wealthy family, etc. Nepotism gives lucky individuals an extraordinary advantage, too.

      I know a few small business owners. Self-employed and well off. I hear these guys talk about how hard they worked for everything and how "lazy people" deserve nothing. I always find out they got some starting money. One went into business with his wife. A real ma and pa shop. Find out after a while that the wife had a filthy rich mother who funded all of the startup costs of the company and that the company was actually divided three ways between them. When the mother died, the wife got her third. Was not a pretty divorce.

      Anyway, my point is that people that make sweeping generalizations about people less well off than them usually always forget that it wasn't just their "hard work" that got them where they are. Lots of people work very hard their entire lives and die poor.

    80. Re:Keynesian? by T.E.D. · · Score: 1

      That analogy would make sense only if the theories of John Maynard Keynes [wikipedia.org] were as universally accepted as those of Einstein

      Then it makes sense. I think perhaps you underestimate the amount of folks out there who don't accept Einstein's theories, instead preferring their own polished versions of older theories that are inherently untestable.

      The thing about Keynesian Economics is that it actually attempts to bring some science into Economics (as much as is possible). The previous school of thought (commonly referred to as "Austrian") dismisses the idea of trying to test theories out of hand as infeasible, and tries to rely on logic. It is much more philosophy than science. That it has any purchase at all these days is more a testament to some folks fear of having their theories tested than its own inherent qualities.

      Bascially, comparing Keynsian Economists to Austrian Economists is like comparing (early) Astronomers to Astrologers.

    81. Re:Keynesian? by ObsessiveMathsFreak · · Score: 1

      You basically rob all of the people that lived within their means and saved their whole life to bail out those that borrowed to the hilt and lived like there is no tomorrow.

      A lot of those "prudent savers" left their money on deposit at bank, or even better, in pension funds where it earned +5% interests in some years. Like it or not, savers rode the same rocket ship as everyone else in the boom years and will just have to pony up with the rest of us.

      This goes treble for the older generation (boomers) now approaching retirement. They were the generation that drove the world over the cliff, yet still expect their inflated, largely unearned pensions to be funded at boom time levels.

      The world is in trouble because a) borrowers borrowed money recklessly and b) lenders lent money recklessly. Savers and pensioners fall into the latter category, as they invested their money in risky investments which promised them the world(and don't try to fool me, I've seen dozens of those fancy pension fun brochures on the kitchen tables of older people). As imprudent investors, they too must take a hit.

      --
      May the Maths Be with you!
    82. Re:Keynesian? by T.E.D. · · Score: 1

      Wow. that's weird. Your first paragraph could not possibly be one iota more correct (even emotionally). But your second is horribly wrong, I wonder that you didn't get a nosebleed going from one to the other.

      If you actually look at the month-to-moth economic statistics during the depression, they track almost perfectly with government spending. There was even a nice little interlude in there where the government got worried about the deficit, cut back a bit, and the economic growth fell back with it. Luckily people actually cared about results in those days, so the government immediately picked the spending back up when they saw this.

      You are right that people back home lived fairly austerely during the WWII. However, this was mostly because the entire available production capacity of the USA was going full tilt pumping out war supplies for the Allies. It wasn't that folks didn't have money, it was that there was nothing to buy, and the government strongly encouraged everyone to lend their disposable income to the government (in the form of US savings bonds). For obvious reasons, China and Japan weren't buying our government debt back then, so government borrowing had to come almost entirely from US citizens.

    83. Re:Keynesian? by rbrander · · Score: 1

      I'm afraid the parent lost you at the bakery. Here's what the P & GP were saying:

      GP: Keynesianism is not some debatable school of thought, it's very much the accepted theory, like Einsteinian physics.

      P: There does exist an "opposition", though. They have very little academic currency outside schools that are heavily supported by right-wing money, and function more as PR firms, supporting right-wing politics with a veneer of academic respectability. They are called Austrian (also "Chicago School" from Milton Friedman & co at the Chicago School of Economics).

      If Einsteinian physics somehow required rich people to pay more taxes, you can bet there would still be well-funded Newtonian Schools...

      Reading below, I see the debate rages on, /. being quite the libertarian-rich environment. Still, the really very basic principles of Keynes really work well in any consistent model: if people stop spending on building houses and restaurants and offices and so on, and you have millions of construction guys starving at home, it's a great time to build highways and bridges.

      No, I'm not an economist, save getting the very basics in Econ 201 in first-year. What I am is the guy who picks water and sewer mains for replacement in a city of a million. And the prices I saw for doing that in 2007 and the prices I see today have dropped over 40%, because the contractors are desperate for work to hold their company from receivership, they'll work for -1% profit because it's better than -100%. I am getting as much done as possible, praise be my budget has not been slashed; It would have indeed been a perfect time to double it, THEN slash it when prices go up, and save money, so the overall 10-year budget back to the same it would have been with steady spending, but with double the work done. That's what borrowing is FOR.

      Acting, now, of all times, when all construction is on a 40% off sale, like it's time to cut government spending is $%^ CRAZY.

      Sorry. It's just frustrating.

    84. Re:Keynesian? by ObsessiveMathsFreak · · Score: 1

      Shrinking government spending (while deregulating private activity) caused a boom in China. It has also made Germany the only stable economy in Western Europe in the recent years.

      Where do I begin here?

      OK, firstly, both the economies you mention are export led ones. In fact, China and Germany are respectively the first and second largest exporters in the world.

      Secondly, when we talk about China, we're certainly not talking about a free market economy. Every significant Chinese company is more or less a branch of the officially communist government. The government has an active level of involvement at every possible level of the economy, from setting up medium sized businesses, to its pegging of the yuan to the US dollar.

      The economy in China is entirely state managed, and arguing that somehow, amidst all this direct management and capital infrastructure projects, China is actually shrinking its government spending is complete non-sense. Go ahead; trawl up some myopic statistic which "proves" that China is spending less on government. I'm sure it will be true in whatever world economic view you present alongside it.

      As to Germany, beneath their boom is the stark reality that many manufacturing jobs across the eurozone have been transferred there as a result of the introduction of the euro. German spending on welfare and education has thus been reduced, even as those cost have gone up in other countries. Again, your example ignores the wider picture.

      "Austerity" in the modern context simply means that the ordinary workers are squeezed to pay back money to reckless lenders. Those who lent recklessly are rewarded, those who borrowed are punished, and those who are close to the borrowers are also made to pay. That is the essence of austerity. If you believe that this was the same austerity that lead to booms in China and Germany, be my guest. But you'd be completely wrong.

      --
      May the Maths Be with you!
    85. Re:Keynesian? by T.E.D. · · Score: 1

      Also, the way you put it sort of hurts the Austrians, at least in my eyes. Theory is useless without observations. Where observations are somewhat useful with the judicious use of statistics and large data sets.

      The problem is that there really is no better way to put it. Austrian economics was an old school that simply did not believe you could apply the Scientific Method to Macroeconomics. Keynsians believed you could, at least to a limited extent. This is roughly equivalent to the switchover between "Natural Philosophy" and "Physics".

      If you believe the Scientific Method is worth persuing in macroeconomics, then I'm afraid the Austrian School is just not for you. However, it is just perfect for folks who have ideas they strongly want to be true, and think they can make plausible-sounding arguments for.

    86. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      It would have indeed been a perfect time to double it, THEN slash it when prices go up, and save money, so the overall 10-year budget back to the same it would have been with steady spending, but with double the work done. That's what borrowing is FOR.

      The problem is that the government would not have slashed it when prices went up. Politicians would happily double it to "take advantage of lower costs". The problem is that we have some experience with this and we know that that doubled spending level would become the new baseline from which all future spending would be calculated (with some steady increase baked in). For example, in 2009 Obama pushed for a bunch of "emergency" spending. When he introduced his 2012 budget (the one the Democratic controlled Senate rejected 97-0), those funds were used as the baseline from which increased spending was budgeted. This sort of spending is unsustainable. Sooner or later, you get to where we are now, where the government spends close to $1 trillion in "stimulus" spending and the economy slows down.
      If the government (at any, but preferably all, level) had cut spending when times were good in the 90s, government stimulus spending now, might work. But it didn't.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    87. Re:Keynesian? by felix+rayman · · Score: 1

      China was not in a recession in the 1990's. Do you not even know what a recession is?

      You gave China as an example of a country that had used austerity to get out of a recession, but China wasn't in a recession. Not recently and not in the 1990's. Do you even comprehend that a country that is not in a recession can not use austerity to get out of a recession? This is like arguing with a retarded dude who is on angel dust.

      Germany IS currently "slipping to malaise of the rest of the west" as you so eloquently put it. It grew at 0.1% last quarter which is a rounding error away from a recession. It was growing at 2% a year in the summer of 2010. Then it implemented austerity measures. Now it is near a recession. Do you comprehend that a country that isn't in a recession that implements austerity measures and then is near a recession isn't an example of using austerity to get out of a recession?

      Fucking idiot.

      Krugman could have predicted what would happen to Germany. I think he did, actually.

    88. Re:Keynesian? by imnotanumber · · Score: 1

      That makes as much economic sense as paying people to move a mountain of rocks from one place to another, and then paying people to move them all back.

      Isn't that very similar to digging gold and then paying people to protect its transport?

    89. Re:Keynesian? by imnotanumber · · Score: 1

      If you fire 10 people, 9 may sit on the couch eating cheetos and collecting unemployment benefits for the next 2 years[1]. But 1 will start his (or her) own business and increase economic activity.

      Then he (or she) will go bankrupt because the possible costumers are unemployed and can't pay for the goods. (unless it is another cheetos brand)

    90. Re:Keynesian? by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      No, the morons who whine "half of Americans don't pay taxes!" are the ones who are trying to tax those attempting to become rich. By the time you're up to the sort of income where liberals like me want to raise your taxes, you've already made it into the winner's circle.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    91. Re:Keynesian? by AvitarX · · Score: 1

      I think the stimulating effect of some socialism is greatly under-appreciated.

      Socialized medicine allows for entrepreneurship to thrive, especially at the lower levels. I creates a much more even playing field, in the US system large companies get health insurance for much less than small ones, causing a drain on start-ups of every type. Additionally a safety net can have a similar effect, reducing the cost of failure for going out on ones own (and to being loyal to a single employer). In Canada GM was lobbying FOR socialized medicine, the current system in the US is part of what lead to their failure.

      Most of the socialized systems also keep doctors pay less (still good though), this sucks for doctors, but helps the economy in general (eliminating some of the window breaking effect of staying healthy). In the US the doctors keep supply artificially low (limiting the allowed maximum number of students per field in each med-school), driving up prices. It's not that doctors are worth so much in the natural order, they are actively keeping prices out of reach of many by limiting supply. This is due to both government regulation (limiting people that can act as doctors to those that have been to a proper med-school), and industry regulation (making sure enough people can't go to med school to meet demand).

      I'm not saying it's worse than a totally deregulated field (where I could be Dr Nick), just that the regulation we have now blows, and really we need to at least eliminate the supply shortage, by permitting schools to take as many qualified students as they like (this would also reduce the cost of the education, by allowing competition).

      European socialism has the advantage of US subsidies too. How much has the German military budget been over the last 50 years? And non-negotiated drug prices in the US subsidize worldwide medical R and D.

      The US has over 1/4 the number of troops in Germany and Germany does. That's a fairly big subsidy to defense right there.

      --
      Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg
    92. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      Really? Do you really believe that the Warren Buffets and Bill Gates of the world will pay the increased taxes you are talking about?
      The fact is that close to half of Americans do not pay income tax. Additionally, a larger share of Federal tax revenues are paid by the top 1% of income earners today than was paid by them before the Bush tax cuts were passed.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    93. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      No they aren't. Universal health care maybe, but properly implemented, I fail to see how that would make the rich richer. And you're assuming he wants the regulatory capture environment we currently suffer. Smart regulation, regulation written with the people's interest in mind, does not favor any kind of company.

    94. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      If by "greatest growth", you mean "extended the Depression by approximately 7 years due to incompetent policies", then sure.

      Do some more research. After implementation of FDR's programs, GDP was growing, unemployment was shrinking. It wasn't until Republicans in Congress cut funding to all those programs in 1937 that the US fell back into depression. They tried to get them started again, but things stayed where they were until WWII.

      The funny thing is that due to global circumstances (such as the US being pretty much the only developed country not devastated by WWII, thus being the main source of goods to the countries that were rebuilding) we grew that much despite incompetent politicians

      If you notice, the Middle Class only grew due to the strong presence of unions, which ensured that the workers were treated fairly. Without them, it's very possible that it would be another "growth" where only those on top felt any benefit.

      imagine how much we'd have grown if we hadn't had FDR (aka the worst president in history) fucking things up?

      Bullshit. His policies were working until Congress cut the funding for them. Compare that to Hoover, under who's watch the Depression happened. He tried your shitty "do nothing and let the markets sort it out" idea. It was a massive failure. You cannot deny this.

      Want to get modded down? Promote liberty, personal responsibility, or sound economic policy.

      Funny, because you haven't done any of this.

    95. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Yes, I would prefer to return to pre-1930 policies where the government did not decide the winners and losers in the economy.

      You mean ones where massive depression happens, and they do nothing? Ones where they allow millions to stay out of work and starve in the streets? Or how about the ones where they allow business to run roughshod over their employers, fucking them over at their will?

      And if you honestly think that they "didn't pick winners and losers" prior to 1930, I have to posit that you're either an idiot, or just ignorant of history. Look into the Robber Barons. Look into the Railroad barons. The idea that they didn't do any of that is laughable.

    96. Re:Keynesian? by Pinkybum · · Score: 1

      Your wrong - their savings can inflate too - CD's were giving at least 5% before the crash.

    97. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Obviously you've never read any of the articles either, as you're just as full of shit as the guy above you.

    98. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      open-minded (pro Laissez-faire)

      Open Minded and pro Laissez-faire are not the same thing.

    99. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      For example, in 2009 Obama pushed for a bunch of "emergency" spending.

      If you actually look at it, the vast majority of the "spending" was in the form of tax cuts. It's well accepted that these are one of the weakest forms of stimulus, as they give people and business extra money, but no incentive to spend it. Especially at the higher end, when they already have large amounts of surplus money that they're already not spending.

    100. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      Smart regulation, regulation written with the people's interest in mind, does not favor any kind of company.

      Yes, and powering our cars with pixie dust doesn't result in any polluton either.
      Even if such a regulatory environment were possible, it still favors large companies over small companies. There is a certain amount of expense necessary to demonstrate that one is complying with the regulation. A large company can more readily absorb that cost than a small company.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    101. Re:Keynesian? by operagost · · Score: 1

      That's funny, because all the figures I have here told me that the middle class exploded in the 1920s. You know, the evil Harding and Coolidge administrations. Apparently, nearly 10 years of New Deal failure wasn't enough to prove that it was a bad idea. It's Hoover's fault, really... FDR blasted him for his meddling policies, then proved over the next decade that really screwing up the economy requires a "liberal". If only WWII hadn't happened... maybe in another 10 years of unconstitutional control of private business and property confiscation the New Deal would have worked on its own.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    102. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      And NO that is not what got us out of the great depression. It certainly prolonged it though.

      You're extremely wrong on that. FDR's policies were working; the public works spending was getting people back to work, and GDP was growing. Production was up. It wasn't until 1937, when the Republican Congress dropped funding for these programs that the US slid back into recession. Attempts were made to reinstate them, while still balancing a budget, but they never came back until WWII. Had he continued, uninterrupted with his policies, and perhaps spent even more, the depression could have ended sooner.

    103. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      You are correct the Progressives had already corrupted our government before the 1930s.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    104. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Yes, how dare they think that policies which get people back to work, and help grow the economy actually help.

    105. Re:Keynesian? by operagost · · Score: 1

      $250K per year is not the winner's circle. Try seeing if you can live off a single year's "windfall" of $250,000 for the rest of your life, "winner". But really, the President actually set it lower, at $190,000. That's where the "Making work pay" tax credit peters out. Oh wait-- the tobacco tax. I saw a Wendy's employee taking a smoke break the other day... how much do those folks make a year?

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    106. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      No, it didn't. The New Deal was instrumental in getting people back to work, and in growing the economy. It wasn't until the Republican Congress cut funding in 1937 that the US slipped back into recession.

    107. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      So far NOTHING about the US reaction to the recession has resembled Austerity

      Yeah, those massive budget cuts have nothing to do with Austerity. /s

    108. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      Yeah, that's right the $500 million government loan that Solyndra got was in the form of tax cuts.
      NO, the "vast majority" of the spending was not in the form of tax cuts. According to the Wikipedia article $275 Billion of the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act" was tax cuts, while $552 Billion of the Senate version and $545 Billion of the House version were spending (I did not see a summary of what the final number was, but spending was not going to go from essentially twice the amount of the tax cuts to less than the tax cuts in the reconciliation process).

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    109. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Here's the thing: Yes, in the long term, the better thing to do would be to reduce the public sector workforce. The problem is, if you do that at a time when the workforce as a whole was vastly reduced, all you're doing is trying to dig yourself out of a whole. There's definitely a place for austerity, but in the middle of a recession with high unemployment and low demand for goods is not it.

      And your "broken window" story doesn't apply here. If anything the workers would probably be used repairing things that are already broken, through other means, sometime even just because they're old.

    110. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Even if such a regulatory environment were possible

      It is.

      it still favors large companies over small companies.

      Not really. Unless you think that small companies should be able to get away with shit like not having to clean up pollution, or not treating workers fairly. And honestly, if you can't do that stuff, then you shouldn't be in business, small or large.

    111. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Uhhh, no. And none of the stuff I had mentioned is the least bit "progressive". They're all policies you indicate you'd like to return to.

    112. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      And if you had paid attention, you'd see that all the tax cuts were applied, but a huge portion of the spending did not occur.

    113. Re:Keynesian? by operagost · · Score: 1

      Don't let the fact that was done in 1920, ending the recession, bother you. Meanwhile, over two years of runaway deficit spending and the economy is no better with higher unemployment than when we started.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    114. Re:Keynesian? by mwasham · · Score: 1

      You may have missed it - but we've been trying Keynesian solutions for a LONG time now.. QE1, QE2, Bush's stimulus, Obama's stimulus. All we have to show for it is ALOT of debt and extremely high food & gas prices.

    115. Re:Keynesian? by mwasham · · Score: 1

      Lies lies lies.. Sorry, FDR was by far the worse president in the 20th century. The lies that have been made up about him are so easily looked up its astounding that so many people still believe them. These are the same people that believe you can get out of a recession by robbing from the poor through inflation and redistributing from a central bank to rich people.

    116. Re:Keynesian? by operagost · · Score: 1

      For example Austerity has never gotten anyone out of a recession.

      1920.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    117. Re:Keynesian? by operagost · · Score: 1

      is how the US got out of the great depression with help from the New Deal

      No. even if this were true, do you really think that taking over nine years to end an economic downturn is acceptable? "I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started... And an enormous debt to boot!" - Henry Morgenthau, Jr, Secretary of the Treasury under FDR

      and WW2.

      Yes.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    118. Re:Keynesian? by siglercm · · Score: 1

      Of course, Krugman's real position is that we would all be better off if we would let people like him decide every aspect of our lives and just lived as drones supporting our betters (him and those like him).

      Thank you for having the courage to speak the truth.

      --
      sigfault (core dumped)
    119. Re:Keynesian? by trout007 · · Score: 1

      Where do you think the word dollar comes from? It originated as the name of a one ounce silver coin. So yes I would like the government to peg the dollar to a certain amount of silver that is redeemable on demand. Kind of like we had 40 years ago.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    120. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      To attempt to make you understand why regulations favor large companies over small I will attempt one last time to explain. Suppose a new regulation takes 10 hours a week to fill out the paperwork to demonstrate that a company is in compliance with some regulation (and while that number may vary, it takes some amount of time) which company is going to more readily be able to afford that time: one that has two people working 40 hours a week each getting their product into their customers' hands or one that has 50 people working 40 hours a week?
      I realize that this effort was wasted since you apparently believe in pixie dust, but I gave it one more try.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    121. Re:Keynesian? by Teancum · · Score: 1

      That makes as much economic sense as paying people to move a mountain of rocks from one place to another, and then paying people to move them all back.

      Isn't that very similar to digging gold and then paying people to protect its transport?

      The problem with this line of thinking is ignoring the value of the metal itself in terms of its use as an industrial product. Having gold sitting in the ground (in usually a very diffuse form) isn't readily useful if you want to take it out and make computer chips or create some jewelry with it. Gold has a whole bunch of really impressive qualities where it would be valuable even if we had a Star Trek Replicator technology which could spontaneously create piles of whatever it is that you wanted from pure energy.

      The point is well taken, though, when the gold is otherwise just sitting in a vault and otherwise not being used.

    122. Re:Keynesian? by Dahamma · · Score: 1

      We'll see - none of those recently proposed cuts have taken effect yet, and sounds like even if they do they were just made irrelevant by a plan to spend $450B on a new "jobs act". Calling the insane way the US govt throws around money lately "Austerity" is a joke...

    123. Re:Keynesian? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Someone has been watching a little bit too much FOX News, I think.

    124. Re:Keynesian? by snarfer · · Score: 1

      Huh? The war costs went away, but we invested in in domestic infrastructure, education... For example, have you heard of the "GI Bill?"

    125. Re:Keynesian? by snarfer · · Score: 1

      I wonder if you know who publishes this "First Principles Journal?"

    126. Re:Keynesian? by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      And again, to attempt to explain to you, why should they be exempt from proving that their food is safe, that they are not spewing pollution into the environment, or that they are treating their workers fairly, just because they're small? Yes, I know it takes time. That is irrelevant. You're saying, "oh, they don't have that many people. Go ahead and spew all the pollution you want."

    127. Re:Keynesian? by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      The point is that no matter what the regulation, no matter how well meaning it is, no matter how thought out it is, it favors larger companies over smaller companies. Government regulation inherently favors large corporations over small companies.
      You are the one who says that it is possible for regulation to not favor big companies. I am telling you that is not so. I at no time said that there should be no regulation. You cannot regulate small businesses into existence, but you can regulate them out of business.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    128. Re:Keynesian? by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      Like my dad always said, "I'd love to be earning enough to pay that much in taxes." Yes, close to half of Americans aren't paying federal income tax. But they may be paying state income taxes. They're probably paying property taxes, use fees, sales taxes, and payroll taxes. If you put them together, my understanding is that the tax structure is regressive overall.

      My dad also says "statistics prove that you can prove anything with statistics." When you say,

      Additionally, a larger share of Federal tax revenues are paid by the top 1% of income earners today than was paid by them before the Bush tax cuts were passed.

      what you leave out is that during the Bush administration, the average person's income actually went down (even excluding the economic collapse), while the top 1% (and especially the top 0.01%) were lavished with more money than they knew what to do with.* When you point out that the top 10% pay 50% of the income tax without at the same time pointing out that they have 70% of the wealth, you're using statistics to conceal the truth, not reveal it.

      * What they did with the money was send it to Wall Street. Wall Street, completely failing in its societal function of putting money into investments that would yield long-term value, used it to inflate commodities bubbles, bet on derivatives and credit default swaps, and sell investors on investments that they themselves were betting against. Well done, free enterprise.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

    129. Re:Keynesian? by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 1

      Live off $250K for the rest of my life? Depending on my investment strategy and my forecasted lifespan, I could probably do it. I live cheap, I have almost no debt, and I don't have a family to support.

      But that's beside the point. The definition of "winning" that you're using is "never having to work again." If you make $250K for even one year, you can live quite comfortably while stashing away most of it. Do it for a few years in a row, and you can retire. Given the current state of the country, that sounds an awful lot like winning to me.

      And it's not as though we're asking a whole lot from the $250K crowd by taking away the Bush tax cuts. If you make $250K on the nose, your taxes aren't increased. If you make $250,001, your taxes go up by a few cents. If you make $260K, your taxes go up by $500. Not enough to substantially change your buying habits or cause any sane, reasonable person to "go Galt."

      The Making Work Pay tax break was a new tax break, and therefore increased taxes on nobody.

      Yes, people do pay other taxes besides federal income taxes. State taxes, local taxes, property taxes, sales taxes, use fees, payroll taxes, the works. Which is why the whiners who whine that "half of Americans don't pay any taxes" are just being whining whiners who whine whinily.

      Please explain to me why it's fair for us to tax capital gains at a lower rate than income.

      --

      You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

  10. Re:Bitcoin by qubezz · · Score: 3, Insightful

    That's why you don't sell uncounterfeitable, undisputable, unrevocable, instantly transferrable Bitcoins for Paypal payments, which can be disputed, paid with stolen credit cards, accounts frozen, etc. Don't blame Bitcoin for PayPal suckage.

  11. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why would Paypal be involved in anything he's doing?

  12. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Looks like a CEE 7/5 or 7/4 -> 240V/16A ... less than half of what his claimed setup would require.

  13. Re:Bitcoin by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

    Not only that, but now you have 7.2kw of heat that may need to be pumped out. Running an AC compressor isn't cheap either.

    --
    Life is not for the lazy.
  14. Terrible summary, decent blog post by Baloroth · · Score: 5, Insightful

    By "discussing its similarity to the gold standard" the summary means "he points out one way Bitcoin is flawed." Specifically, that people hoard it instead of spending it (creating an unstable monetary system). Fewer transactions actually means less value, since the whole point of a monetary system that lacks intrinsic value (gold at least had that) is that it gets spent. Since the amount of Bitcoins is limited, and as time goes on the early adopters get "richer" (since less is being mined), they have an incentive not to spend. But the system will only succeed if they do spend and create a thriving system.

    This is a massive gaping flaw in Bitcoin that I haven't seen pointed out yet. It means that Bitcoin will nearly always be a deflationary system. It also requires people to keep investing computing time, while their return on investment only gets less and less over time, and early adopters have no reason to spend, creating fewer transactions to be verified. And this can't be fixed: the limit to the number of Bitcoins is builtin to the system and cannot be changed.

    So to everyone going "not another Bitcoin story!": read it. It actually points out a way that Bitcoin is (possibly) flawed (unlike so many of the stories on /.) And from a real economist, too.

    --
    "None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license." --John Milton
    1. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by PCM2 · · Score: 2

      a monetary system that lacks intrinsic value (gold at least had that)

      What's the intrinsic value of gold? It has value as a material to make jewelry out of, and that seems to be a lasting thing looking at history, but to my mind it's just a matter of personal preference (I would probably prefer silver jewelry to gold, myself) and therefore a false "value." All it would take would be one famous celebrity soccer mom to come along and claim gold causes autism and the value of gold would drop.

      I always wonder why all the gold bugs aren't talking about instating an oil standard. Oil really has intrinsic value, because it can be used to do work. I suspect that this option is off the table, however, because America has Fort Knox but all the oil is owned by the darn A-rabs.

      --
      Breakfast served all day!
    2. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by LordLucless · · Score: 1

      Gold has an intrinsic value as a material for various technological uses, outside of its use for human adornment (which is really just an extension of its scarcity, just like its use as a currency).

      --
      Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
    3. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by danlip · · Score: 1

      Oil's value is gone once it is used. Gold can be recycled and reused. It has lots of industrial uses too, not just making pretty things. And regardless of whether YOU prefer silver or gold jewelry, the fact is you are pretty much guaranteed you can find someone to trade you something you want for your gold. I agree with you that it's "intrinsic vale" is not really as much as what most people think it is. But unlike money the government can't just print more, so the limited supply is an important feature; it's rare, it's compact for it's value (unlike iron, which is highly useful but you don't want to carry around $1000 worth of iron) and it doesn't spoil, rust, rot, so it makes for pretty good money. But so does paper money if you have sound fiscal policy.

    4. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      pretty much every electronic gizmo you own has some gold in it, bond wires, plated connectors, plated pcb

    5. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by brillow · · Score: 1

      There's an important thing you're both missing though, bitcoins are divisible by 8 decimal places. That means its possible for things to cost very few bitcoins in a way which is not possible in current monetary systems. Even if bitcoins have a very high trade value you will still be able to spend it 0.00000001 BTC at a time.

      I think that increases the ability to hoard them as much as you like, AND still spend them. I dunno if this completely nullifies the argument though. I think people mistake BTC as being a digital version of a dollar, when its not quite that close. It is more like gold if it were possible to trade gold by the atom.

    6. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      These all have been discussed repeatedly, and for years on end. The fact that you, and Krugman, have not heard about it doesn't change that fact.

      To summarize:
      *Bitcoins can be subdivided to an extremely high amount. This mitigates to some extent deflation.
      * That bitcoins have an ultimate cap is known, and expected. There is some debate in how much bitcoin could be used as a replacement currency. People who understand how bitcoin works tend to understand that in a world with decentralized currency, one version of it won't rule, and there would be exchange markets between them. Just like currencies now.
      * If/when they have value, the cost to mine goes up, and only people with either some innovative or economic advantage will participate in the mining. This is exactly like mining for gold, which people still do, for the same reasons.
      * The problem with Bitcoin is that, as software, there is not enough software yet that can utilize and leverage bitcoin. This is hampering the usefulness and the acceptance of bitcoin. EVERYBODY INTO BITCOIN KNOWS THIS.

      Every anti-Bitcoin statement on the Internet falls into a few simple categories:
      1. Re. your argument. We already know this, it's an experimental currency. We want to see what happens.
      2. Your criticisms apply equally to existing currencies. What does this say about your criticism?
      3. Your criticisms are about ways in which bitcoin does not work like traditional currencies. This is not an argument in of itself.
      4. I HATE LIBERTARIANS/HACKERS/PEOPLE TRYING THINGS I THINK WILL FAIL.

      I'm not blaming you specifically, but this is what I see. I will specifically say that Krugman's column is shit. He deserves his acclaim as an economist, but he hardly puts the level of effort and rigor into his blog than in the work that got him his Nobel. He just spews shit, post after post.

    7. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Baloroth · · Score: 1

      Actually, gold can be traded almost by the atom (just about as close as you can get a physical object anyways): Gold leaf

      --
      "None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license." --John Milton
    8. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by brillow · · Score: 1

      I think the truth is that nothing has intrinsic value. Value is, by its very nature, a subjective thing. If gold caused autism it would still have value, because people keep it in vaults anyway.

      Oil has value as an energy source, but that differs from intrinsic value, as for someone to value it they have to care about energy.

      Plus, if we were on an oil standard, that would be insane. We'd immediately stop burning oil and have no energy, then everyone would build solar, wind, nuclear, hydroelectirc etc, power stations like mad to make up the difference. At this point the oil has no value as we would have replaced it with superior technology, its use as a form of currency would be as meaningless as gold's.

      I've read somewhere though, that there are a lot of good reasons gold is an ideal unit of trade. It's rare (but not too rare), its easy to work and shape, melts at a relatively low temperature, is too soft to be useful as a structural material (copper in this way could not be a good unit of trade because people would smarter to use it to make tools and weapons), does not tarnish or corrode, not easily counterfeited, etc.

      These properties are not present in any other element.

    9. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      Let me give you a little hint: gold is an oil standard.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    10. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by brillow · · Score: 1

      I should restate: "if it were practical to trade gold by the atom"

      Hammering your gold coins into leaf yourself and being able to credibly verify its mass, quality, and composition is not practical.

    11. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by PCM2 · · Score: 1

      Gold does have "various technological uses" but they're minor. Silver is a better conductor of electricity. Titanium is more useful for medical applications. Most of the gold in the world really is used either for jewelry or for investment (it just sits there).

      --
      Breakfast served all day!
    12. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 1

      Gold has an intrinsic value as a material for various technological uses

      This accounts only for a small fraction of its market value.

      its use as a currency

      The use of gold as a currency does not stem just from its scarcity; it is also a result of gold having very few industrial uses. If gold had important industrial uses centuries ago, I doubt it would have been used as currency, since people would simply take gold coins and gold bars and use them for whatever industrial purpose they had -- and so money would have been taken out of circulation. Gold's scarcity can actually become a problem if gold is used as a currency in a society that does has a growing population, if that society cannot find a way to accumulate more gold.

      --
      Palm trees and 8
    13. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by LordLucless · · Score: 1

      This accounts only for a small fraction of its market value.

      Which is why the phrase used was "intrinsic value" not "bloody huge intrinsic value".

      --
      Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
    14. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by PCM2 · · Score: 2

      I don't know about you, but I don't even keep thousands of dollars of paper money. I keep thousands of dollars of imaginary money -- even more compact and durable than gold -- and every so often I go to a machine that gives me a few paper vouchers that are good for trading imaginary money. If the machine gave me gold instead of paper, I guess I'd have to deal with the gold, but that sounds like a pain in the ass. Gold is kind of heavy. But gold, paper, all the same to me -- the imaginary money is what matters. I don't really care what you translate the imaginary money into, as long as everybody else agrees -- which is why I don't understand the hype about the gold standard.

      --
      Breakfast served all day!
    15. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 1

      I always wonder why all the gold bugs aren't talking about instating an oil standard. Oil really has intrinsic value, because it can be used to do work.

      Oil would be a terrible currency because people would simply burn their money -- it would be hard to keep money in circulation. You might as well ask why we don't use a cattle standard, an apple standard, or a water standard.

      Proponents of the gold standard generally have a problem with the idea that banks and governments can arbitrarily adjust the amount of currency in circulation. They want the amount of currency in circulation to be upper bounded by the amount of some natural resource, but deep down they know that a resource that has widespread industrial use would be a poor choice. Gold is fairly arbitrary as a currency -- there are plenty of other scare elements that have few industrial uses that would be just as useful.

      Personally, I prefer currency that has absolutely no industrial use -- and digital currency is the closest technology that we have right now (the "industrial use" is really just the bandwidth and CPU time expended on executing digital cash protocols). Unfortunately, Bitcoin tries too hard to turn digital cash into something like gold, which is a generally bad idea since it implies that Bitcoin tokens must actually become larger over time (this is a property of all secure digital cash systems; however, most other digital cash systems get around this by allowing a central authority to issue new tokens, which can be exchanged for old tokens -- a "currency refreshing" process, similar to how paper currency is burned and replaced). What is really needed is a widespread deployment of digital cash issued by governments and central banks, with guaranteed parity with the national currency; unfortunately, most governments hate the idea of being unable to track their citizens' financial dealings, and there is little motivation for such a system to be deployed.

      --
      Palm trees and 8
    16. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by duck99 · · Score: 1

      Thanks for this post, insightful

    17. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by TheSync · · Score: 1

      "What's the intrinsic value of gold? "

      Chicks dig it...but of course, Slashdot readers might not understand that.

    18. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by rthille · · Score: 1

      No, because no matter how much you can divide it, each part goes up in value with a fixed quantity of the currency and the tendency to hoard. That means there is a deflation pressure.

      What I think the key insight in the inflation vs deflation scheme is that deflation values wealth, but inflation values income. That is, people who have wealth which isn't employed in increasing their wealth are happy with deflation. They will happily sit around while their idle money becomes more valuable. There's little incentive to invest it in enterprises which will increase the wealth and thereby advance civilization. Whereas with a low to moderate (and predictable) inflation, there is incentive to put wealth to work. If you just sit on your wealth without employing it to add value to civilization it loses its value.

      --
      Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/
    19. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      This is a massive gaping flaw in Bitcoin that I haven't seen pointed out yet.

      True... but given the unstability of currency world wide, everyone is storing wealth by investing in commodities. What's more... Krugmans friend Bernanke can't inflate the supply of bitcoin by creating more (see quantative easing and remember this new money is being invested in commodities).

      People have been discussing these and other similar flaws in monetary systems and government fiscal policies for many years. According to Krugman though, such arguments are only applicable to bitcoin. The guy is a comedian!

    20. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by rthille · · Score: 2

      Dividing a bitcoin into a billion billion parts doesn't change the fact that it's deflationary. It doesn't matter how many parts you can make out of it, each part will still be worth more tomorrow, so there's still pressure to hold it rather than spending it.

      --
      Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/
    21. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 2

      Chicks dig it...but of course, Slashdot readers might not understand that.

      No, no... Slashdot readers then proceed to ask, "what's the intrinsic value of chicks?".

    22. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Dahamma · · Score: 3, Informative

      "Intrinsic value" is an economic term, and as such, it's by definition vague ;)

      It's a combination of scarcity, permanence (you can't destroy it - but feel free to delete your bitcoins), physical qualities (and yes, being nice for jewelry is a quality), and it has tended to hold its value over a LONG time (which is the weakest of those arguments IMO, but that's economics for you...)

      Oil doesn't have a very well defined intrinsic value, because it is easily produced (the *current* scarcity is artificial based on production quotas), it has no permanence (its usefulness is based on consuming it), and its physical qualities/usefulness are not inherently valuable (there are alternatives, and if we don't start using them we're screwed).

      Basically, the WHOLE POINT of a good monetary "standard" is that it is supposed to be STABLE and allow growth. Gold is not really the most stable standard because of all the speculation and inability of governments to control that - which is why we abandoned the gold standard. Its scarcity basically rewards saving and punishes debt (ie. tends to be deflationary), which means it's horrible for risk (think: the entire US tech industry). And it's not great for economic growth because the money supply is limited by mining gold.

      Given all that, oil would be HUGELY worse for that stability....

    23. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by WhiplashII · · Score: 3, Informative

      No, the real issue is that under the "gold standard", the money supply is related to gold finds - which are random events. It's not like the supply of gold is actually fixed. So someone could find a huge gold vein tomorrow, and crash the world economy. Just like printing money, but done by individuals!

      Also, there is simply the unavoidable result of a fixed currency:

      Country X says "my dollars are worth exactly 1 Y", for any option of Y. You take your money, and short lots of X dollars. Then you counterfeit X's currency (or wait for someone else to counterfeit it). Now your "short" position is worth more than you paid for it. Country X's only hope is to deflate their currency voluntarily each year, to account for counterfeiting.

      This happened to the US several times, and that is why we are now off the gold standard. It's amazing how few people bother to figure that out before advocating the gold standard!

      --
      while (sig==sig) sig=!sig;
    24. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by ThatsMyNick · · Score: 1

      'shutdown -p now' Get Out Of My Head

    25. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by trout007 · · Score: 1

      I own a few pounds of silver. Anytime you want to trade it for a few pounds of your gold let me know.

      Seriously value is purely subjective. In the earth there is about 30 times more silver than gold. That is one of the reasons for the cost difference.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    26. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by trout007 · · Score: 1

      There is a theory I agree with and that is bad money drives out good money. This means if you have two types of money one that holds purchasing power relatively well like gold, silver, or even Swiss Francs and fit currency that is undergoing continous inflation like the dollar people will naturally save the good money and spend the one that will be worth less tomorrow. Makes sense doesn't it?

      This doesn't even matter because In the US only federal reserve notes are legal tender. So you can't write contracts in other things and have it held up in court. You can always be forced to accept payment in FRN.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    27. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Device666 · · Score: 1
      The Federal Reserve Bank, the central bank of the US, is not federal and also not a reserve bank. Since 1968, when redemption of pre-1963 Federal Reserve notes for gold or silver officially ended, and the value of the dollar by fiat (meaning the value is managed by the Federal Reserve Bank), the dollar has devalued 90%. And also note that the purchasing power of gold has been quite boring consistent since it's use as money during for about 2700 years of existence (which have been used also by the entire world). If governments wouldn't spend unwisely, and central banks would regulate people might be like to hold gold less. Gold imposes a stricter and more prudent policy and also limits the amounts of money a central bank could lend.

      As long as the bankers are not really regulated but take high risks until systematic shocks occur as a consequence. The regulation of banks should be done by it's central bank. However, all the commercial banks of the sovereign are required to be shareholder in order to get a license. So when all shareholders of the Central bank are taking huge risks and making money, it's very unlikely they will be regulated. In a sense Central Banks are national banking industry organizations who only serve interests of commercial banks. What has that trust of the value of the dollar and the Federal Reserve done for you lately??

      Money is a store of value. What would you have your money on: as a store of value which has lost 90% of it's value and still loosing (despite being the most used currency) or gold which have been consistent in buying power since for about 2700 years.?

      Even Central banks know it and they have, for good reasons, the largest stakes in gold. I know Bernanke says it's for traditional reasons that they have physical gold, but do you really believe banks that much are sentimental about traditions to have such quantities?

      On the side, you bring it as if we all listen to the economists in their judgment about fixed supplies of stores of value, but that judgment is hardly unanimous. In fact there are more theoretical frameworks. But I am more of a pragmatist. You keep your dollars in your pocket and I keep my bars silver which I have bought many years a go. Let's put the theory aside and see how much purchasing power your stuff has against my stuff, I bet if yours looses 90% in 43 years we don't have to expect a sudden rise anywhere soon ;p

      “Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history.” – Charles de Gaulle

    28. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree. The only thing we really have that is of any value is our time. Time is made valuable because someday we will die. All other measures of value are just metaphors for our mortality. Arguing over the metaphor seems especially pointless. Let's just get to working making our short lives useful to one another.

    29. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by wrook · · Score: 1

      I think the key point the article is making is that the job of a currency is to spur growth in an economy. A currency with a fixed number of units won't be as effective at doing this because restricting their use increases their value (deflation). The more you horde the higher the value. But hording means that the money isn't being used to create growth, and so it is working against its original purpose.

      But what if we say that Bitcoin is never going to be that kind of currency? As long as there is liquidity in terms of real world currencies, it has utility. The author of TFA says that there are many ways to do commerce online. But this is not true for micro payments. The transaction costs for credit cards, pay pal, etc are too large to do micro payments. Even Flattr takes 10% of every transaction (and has the gall to say "hope that's ok" -- it's not!). But even if you accept the outrageous transaction fees with something like Flattr, you *still* pay a service fee going in, and the recipient pays a service fee going out.

      Bitcoin is potentially useful as a micro-payment option as long as there is liquidity to real world currencies. At the moment, we have such liquidity and I'm less worried about a bubble effect than I am with this liquidity ending. My understanding is that most of this liquidity comes from illegal activities wrt Bitcoin (money laundering and drugs trade). But Bitcoin is inherently much more traceable than cash, and as soon as people start to understand this, I suspect the utility of Bitcoin will cease to be.

      That will be sad, because it is actually a fairly elegant system. If nothing else I recommend people to get over their skepticism enough to understand how it works internally, and what the design tradeoffs were. We see so many articles about Bitcoin on Slashdot discussing rather boring aspects about it, when the interesting bits (proof of work, merkel chain for enforcing temporal order in a p2p system) are ignored. It's too bad.

    30. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by tftp · · Score: 1

      Slashdot readers then proceed to ask, "what's the intrinsic value of chicks?"

      Any educated /. reader would immediately tell you that chicks quickly grow into chickens. Then they lay eggs, or you can eat the birds. They are quite useful.

    31. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Nursie · · Score: 1

      This is not meant to be (too) snarky but have you actually, really been living under a rock? Or are we looking at a sort of prominence effect - that it only counts if an economist says it?

      'cos some folks spotted this one a while ago.

      Bitcoin's biggest proponents are always, always hoarders. The few that don't hoard are speculators. There's no real economy and for the reasons pointed out, little chance of there being one.

    32. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by AlphaWolf_HK · · Score: 1

      What the hell are you talking about? Gold has a lot of uses, and unlike oil, it can be recycled. A very important use of gold I can think of is for electronic interconnects/contacts. Without gold most of our electronics would have rather short expiration dates and conductivity would be less efficient.

      Gold is also widely used for medicinal purposes because it is very chemically inert (doesn't oxidize.) It is also used as a lubricant where oil doesn't work (e.g. space where it vaporizes due to lack of atmospheric pressure) and unlike other metals it is extremely resilient to the harsh environment of space.

      --
      Careful with names containing L slashdot.org/~AiphaWolf_HK slashdot.org/~AlphaWoif_HK slashdot.org/~AiphaWoif_HK
    33. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by elbonia · · Score: 1

      And the US Dollar is the oil standard, OPEC only trades in US currency. It says something when the people who have oil don't' want gold and demand US dollars.

    34. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's a combination of scarcity, permanence (you can't destroy it - but feel free to delete your bitcoins), physical qualities...

      Oil doesn't have a very well defined intrinsic value, because it is easily produced (the *current* scarcity is artificial based on production quotas), it has no permanence (its usefulness is based on consuming it), and its physical qualities/usefulness are not inherently valuable (there are alternatives, and if we don't start using them we're screwed).

      Basically, the WHOLE POINT of a good monetary "standard" is that it is supposed to be STABLE and allow growth. ...

      Given all that, oil would be HUGELY worse for that stability....

      "Permanence" is not necessary at all for a good currency. Cigarettes, for example, become currency in economically anarchic situations. They are very difficult to counterfeit, and when the value of the cigarettes drops, people simply smoke them and they become scarce again.

    35. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Teancum · · Score: 1

      The problem here is that the "killer app" of Bitcoin turns out to be financing Wikileaks and other subversive organizations, or providing a medium of exchange for black market transactions (by definition illegal). If those applications for the use of Bitcoins could turn out to set this kind of activity as a minority application rather than the chief rational for its existence, the issue wouldn't be so controversial.

      Had Bitcoin been invented at or about the same time as PayPal, very likely it would have taken over the electronic purchasing exchange market share. Because it was developed much later, it is attempting to fill an application that already has solutions. In this sense, it is sort of like the Wankel engine where it can't really get a foothold into the marketplace because it really isn't all that superior to other market solutions.

      The one "killer app" that I can see it being used for is perhaps something equivalent to Facebook credits.... but that would cut the Facebook developers out of the loop.

    36. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by digsbo · · Score: 1

      Are you saying that in order to be a viable money, a currency must lose value? Are you familiar with Gresham's law, that bad money will chase good out of the economy? You correctly identify that people will hoard something of value. You incorrectly blame the good money for that outcome, instead of the bad money.

    37. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just because a commodity will become scarce doesn't mean it will be hoarded. Gold is becoming scarcer by the year. Oil is becoming scarcer. Yet the price of these commodities goes up and down with demand. There's nothing different with Bitcoin. Its value floats up and down depending on demand. Some choose to hoard it, just like they will gold. But at any moment, an investor makes his or her own judgement of whether it's better to hold for a capital appreciation of the commodity, versus liquidate.

      I believe the point Krugman is trying to make in his editorial is that we shouldn't get too excited about replacing US dollars with a deflationary currency such as Gold, because the lack of a fed to "kick" people into spending their depreciating dollars would cause much economic strife in an economy that lacked monetary policy controls (i.e. the ability to print more currency when needed). Thus, whether you're talking about gold or Bitcoin, the point is that a properly functioning liberal democracy requires a fed to print money once in a while when demand is too low to maintain adequate employment.

      I don't think that anything in his editorial casts Bitcoin in a negative light.

    38. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Baloroth · · Score: 1

      The good thing about gold is it holds it's value very, very well, as you say. The bad thing is it doesn't increase it's value at all. What do I mean? When you own money, you typically (at least) put it into a bank, or more likely, you invest it. This is because, otherwise, it would loose it's value rapidly. Very few millionaires hold their money in massive vaults. Rather, they put it into companies like, say, Apple, Microsoft, SpaceX, whatever. In some cases, these companies fail and they loose money. But in many cases (probably most), it succeeds, and they can wind up making lots of money. Or (even more commonly) they put it into loans and make moderate but much more reliable (hopefully) income. In other words, inflation can help to drive economies by forcing investment. Obviously massive inflation is bad, but moderate amounts does good things for countries.

      On the other hand, as you said, the value of gold has a consistent buying power for thousands of years. You don't even need to loan it or put it into a bank, you can keep it in a vault in your basement and in 100 years you will have exactly as much as you started with. That sounds like a good thing: until you realize that, had you been investing that, you could have 10 or a hundred times what you started with (I don't really feel like doing compound interest maths right now). Which is why banks keep so much gold: as an insurance policy. They know that even if many of their loans start to default, they can still pay people back if necessary. But it doesn't make them money.

      And yes, gold bubbles do happen and you can make money of gold investments, but that tends to be the exception and not the rule. The point is: to drive an economy, especially a consumption-based one, you want inflation. Gold prevents that, which alleviates collapse, but also restricts expansion, and doesn't work as well for an active economy. And that is Kurgman's point.

      --
      "None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license." --John Milton
    39. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by tsotha · · Score: 1

      Actually, gold is used in a variety of industrial and scientific applications. Electronics, for instance, where it's typically plated onto cheaper metals because of the expense.

    40. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Baloroth · · Score: 1

      I do hope it turns into a real currency, and the deflation problem should go away with time. The proof-of-work follows an asymptotic curve (I think), easy at first and then steadily more difficult, meaning that the massive deflation has/will soon have occurred and hoarding should cease to be viable. Bitcoin is very cool, not least because it is based in math (very very cool math at that), and it fits better with the Internet than any other monetary system. It needs to be come widespread and used by many companies to become accepted, though, and I just don't see that happening anytime soon. Really, a large part of the problem is that most of the holders of Bitcoins are private entities. A major non-Internet company (much less government) doesn't want to be the first to accept payment in Bitcoins, in case they loose their value overnight (and because other major companies won't accept them), and without a stockpile of them they can't make purchases either. We might move past that wall eventually, but it might take a complete reboot of the system to do so, and that would itself reduce trust in the system.

      --
      "None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license." --John Milton
    41. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, the real issue is that under the "gold standard", the money supply is related to gold finds - which are random events. It's not like the supply of gold is actually fixed. So someone could find a huge gold vein tomorrow, and crash the world economy. Just like printing money, but done by individuals!

      Or maybe in more modern terms: whenever the change in the amount of refined gold doesn't closely match the change in economic activity, there are problems. Gold growth greater than economic growth = inflation. Gold growth less than economic growth = deflation. Those create meta-problems which can also be terrible: in lending-with-interest; in hoarding (both the hoarding phase, and the later spending phase); in bank runs (especially if you've abstracted physical possession of gold into numbers/papers that can be exchanged for the gold); in travel (it's a pain in the ass to travel with a big chest of gold coins!); in gold exiting the system (crazy uncle Ed never told anyone about the jars of gold he buried in the backyard and now he's dead / spanish treasure ships sunk fighting off pirates / and so on), especially when it's a lot and it's sudden; in gold entering the system (you find a lost cache, or a new mine / two nations go to war and start spending their entire treasury), especially when it's a lot and it's sudden.

      All those examples have happened before on precious metal standards. It wasn't pretty. Though fiat money brings the risk of inflation or hyperinflation, it's in exchange for mitigating or eliminating all the other risks. And keep in mind that the two classic hyperinflation stories (post-WW1 Germany, modern Zimbabwe) are situations that were totally FUBAR and would have been a mess no matter what.

    42. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      During WWII, our friends the Arabs, only wanted gold from the US in exchange for the oil we needed. Should have sent them a bill for services rendered.
      They see more value in gold, since when the oil runs out they will still have camel power.

    43. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by LordLimecat · · Score: 1

      Yours is probably the only definition by which I would concede that gold has "intrinsic value". Bonus points for not making Gold some perfect economic standard by which all other standards should be judged (since one could easily argue that eg Iridium fits a number of those better).

    44. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Dahamma · · Score: 1

      Cigarettes, for example, become currency in economically anarchic situations.

      You have just explained why they are NOT a stable currency. I don't think that's a particularly good argument for you there...

    45. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by FiloEleven · · Score: 1

      Gold is fairly arbitrary as a currency -- there are plenty of other scare elements that have few industrial uses that would be just as useful.

      Gold has here along with silver and some other precious metals the advantage of being historically valued. Yes, it's arbitrary, but don't be too quick to discount the weight of history. The meter (and the foot before it) is just as arbitrary.

    46. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by brusk · · Score: 1

      So you can't write contracts in other things and have it held up in court. You can always be forced to accept payment in FRN.

      Wherever did you get that idea? Of course you can write a contract that trades one thing for another or, for example, trades one piece of land for another, with no money changing hands. You might still owe taxes on the transaction, based on its dollar value, but why would you not be able to have a non-monetary contract?

      --
      .sig withheld by request
    47. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is nothing insightful about Krugman's blog post. The first eloquent treatment of the deflationary argument I read was in an article in The Economist back in June ( http://www.economist.com/node/18836780?story_id=18836780&fsrc=rss ). Actually, people have been arguing about this on the offical bitcoin forums since I first heard about Bitcoin, back in 2011. I read the blog post and was waiting for him to say something substantial... and then the post ended.

    48. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by brusk · · Score: 1

      The transaction costs for credit cards, pay pal, etc are too large to do micro payments. Even Flattr takes 10% of every transaction

      That's a separate problem. If there were real demand for an efficient, cheap micropayment system based on real-world currency, somebody would make one. The fact that no one has come up with a viable business model suggests that the conditions are not right for it.

      --
      .sig withheld by request
    49. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Shwag · · Score: 1

      The argument is basically that hoarding will make Bitcoins so valuable that nobody will be willing to offer people enough to part with them. Does that pass the giggle test? Another way of stating the argument is this, "If gold is $2,000/oz today but people think it will be $5,000/oz next year, nobody will trade any gold today." Again, think about it. Does that pass the giggle test either? http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/408/does-hoarding-really-hurt-bitcoin

    50. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except that gold is used ina lot of electronics. It is a terrific electric carrier and VERY soft - so you can make THIN wires. Thin like thin enough to wire up your CPU chip to the carrier that you see when you take it out (with all the pins).

      Computers contain quite a lot of gold.

      It is also a precious metal, i.e. it reacts only with very limited chemicals, so it can be used to cover surfaces to protect them.

    51. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by cartman · · Score: 1

      Gold does have "various technological uses" but they're minor.

      Gold has one interesting property: it doesn't corrode at all when it's exposed to oxygen. For this reason, it's useful for things like stereo plugs which are often exposed to air and which would be ruined if they developed a very thin layer of rust.

    52. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Er, that would be back in 2010. And "this" refers to the deflationary argument against bitcoin's usefulness as a currency.

    53. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by cartman · · Score: 1

      "Intrinsic value" is an economic term,

      "Intrinsic value" is not taken from economics.

      and as such, it's by definition vague ;)

      None of the terms actually used in economics are vague. Not even its most questionable theories (like the EMH) are vague.

    54. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is a massive gaping flaw in Bitcoin that I haven't seen pointed out yet. It means that Bitcoin will nearly always be a deflationary system

      No.. I'm just a typical bog standard basic undergrad econ grad, and others and I have pointed this fairly simple observation out countless times (it is Eco 101 stuff), and there is simply some handwaving bullcrap mailing list argument posted on from Bitcoin FAQ about it, about why Bitcoin isn't affected by some of the most fundamental economic properties.

      Now that Krugman is speaking, the exact same argument will now be "valid". I don't have any ill will towards Krugman, he is right after all, just the typical assholes that claim they follow logic and reason... except when it is not from a celebrity and disagrees with their preconceived notions.

      "Real economist" is a codespeak for economist with a New York Times column (i believe the Nobel Prize has little bearing on it)

    55. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's a combination of scarcity, permanence (you can't destroy it - but feel free to delete your bitcoins), physical qualities (and yes, being nice for jewelry is a quality), and it has tended to hold its value over a LONG time (which is the weakest of those arguments IMO, but that's economics for you...)

      You can effectively destroy gold - just powder it and drop it into the sea. The scarcity of gold depends on improvements in mining technology, whereas the production of bitcoins is actually independent of progress in computing, so that's one-up for bitcoins. The physical quality of gold for jewellery really isn't a major factor.

      The last argument - the one you consider weak - really is the most important one. People have considered gold to be valuable for a long time. Therefore, some people will consider it to be valuable for a long time in the future - and so, other people will also value it, to trade to those people, and so on, until everyone values it.

    56. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Dahamma · · Score: 1

      Actually, I do consider the "economically" weak factor the most important as well, but also the hardest to defend as far as "inherent value". And...

      1) destroying gold that way is not worth discussing in an economic sense, unless you plan to get your hands on thousands of tons of gold and sprinkle it in the ocean. And even then it's still not destroyed, just harder to recover - if it were economically worth it someone would figure it out.

      2) The scarcity of gold does NOT particularly depend on mining technology. It would depend on finding a *new* source that is so huge and easily mined that it would influence supply, and while that is theoretically possible it's unlikely. But it also helps explain why it's a bad monetary standard, which was my point.

      And you have argued two COMPLETELY OPPOSITE points in one post - that it's not stable but it is stable. Which is it? I'd argue that means it's not stable, or at least not controllable, which is why it's not the "standard" any more...

    57. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Animats · · Score: 1

      No, the real issue is that under the "gold standard", the money supply is related to gold finds - which are random events. It's not like the supply of gold is actually fixed. So someone could find a huge gold vein tomorrow, and crash the world economy. Just like printing money, but done by individuals!

      That actually happened to Portugal and Spain, back when they were world powers with vast colonies in the Americas. Their explorers found gold, and sizable expenditures were made to set up colonies and operations to mine it. They thought they were generating wealth, but they were mostly just inflating their medium of exchange.

    58. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Patch86 · · Score: 1

      If you buy a stack of gold now (at what, fast approaching $2000 an ounce), and then everyone decided en masse that it was no longer an investment product worth having, the only people you would be able to sell it to would be jewellers and, er, audio cable makers. Do you think you would get $2000 an ounce for your gold from them? $1000? $50? Any guesses?

      With fiat currency, there's a risk that your "investment" in dollars, for example, might drop to zero if everyone stops using it all at once. Gold isn't much different- if everyone stopped buying gold, you would lose the vast majority of the money you spent buying your gold; you'd only get back pennies in the pound.

      And seeing as gold price (even without it's abandonment as a currency) regularly yo-yo's around anywhere from $200 to $2000, it's a very real possibility for anyone buying an ounce of gold now. Just look at some charts showing the relative value volatility of gold and the US dollar:

    59. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by LordLucless · · Score: 1

      If you buy a stack of gold now (at what, fast approaching $2000 an ounce), and then everyone decided en masse that it was no longer an investment product worth having

      You face that problem with any investment: invest in vacuum tubes just before capacitors are invented; invest in pork bellies before public taste suddenly swings to lamb; invest in property just before the debt hits the fan.

      the only people you would be able to sell it to would be jewellers and, er, audio cable makers

      Also NASA, for shielding on satellites, ruggedised electronics, and an assortment of other things. High conductivity and resistance to corrosives are useful in all sorts of applications.

      --
      Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
    60. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      oil does have a intrinsic value.

      you can use it, you can use it to fuel your car, you can use it to make plastics, you can build houses from it and you can use it to go around the world, you can use it to produce steel, you can use it to produce aluminum.

      bitcoin and gold.. well, you need gold for interconnects, gold teeth and gilting. but that's it. with bitcoin you can do even less.

      oils value is dicated largely by how much the alternatives cost, as such we won't be seeing peak oil in the fashion some people predict(as we're not running out of it yet).

    61. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      If you buy a stack of gold now (at what, fast approaching $2000 an ounce), and then everyone decided en masse that it was no longer an investment product worth having, the only people you would be able to sell it to would be jewellers and, er, audio cable makers.

      And dentists. And makers of computer chips. And conservators. And I'm sure it would find uses in places where it is not used now because at the current price it simply would be too expensive.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    62. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Actually they did create wealth, just not as much as they expected. Assuming a simplistic model where the total value of all available gold is constant, let's assume that there have been originally 100 units of gold (where an unit is obviously 1% of all the gold available in the beginning), and you own 2 units. Then you find huge new gold reserves, say 8 units. Now you own 10 of 108 units, or 9,26% of all gold existing now. Therefore while your wealth wasn't increased by the original value of 8 units, it was still increased, just "only" by 7.26 units. Basically, that wealth has been drawn from the others who didn't find the gold.

      Of course the more gold you've had before, the less newly found gold adds to your wealth.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    63. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      *Bitcoins can be subdivided to an extremely high amount. This mitigates to some extent deflation.

      No, it doesn't. Allowing to spend a tiny fraction of a bitcoin doesn't make the whole botcoin less valuable. If anything, it even increases its value, thus increasing deflation.

      * That bitcoins have an ultimate cap is known, and expected. There is some debate in how much bitcoin could be used as a replacement currency. People who understand how bitcoin works tend to understand that in a world with decentralized currency, one version of it won't rule, and there would be exchange markets between them. Just like currencies now.

      Currently there is usually one currency per nation (with the exception of the Euro, which is a multinational currency). If currencies wouldn't be bound to political borders (and that's exactly what bitcoin does), they would probably form a natural monopoly, because accepting more than one is more complicated (how many American shops accept Euros, especially outside tourist regions?).

      However there might be a way out by having such additional virtual currencies created by governments, who can simply demand that everyone has to accept the new virtual currency. But then, we are basically back to where we are now: The government can simply "print more money" by introducing additional virtual currencies. The whole promise of Bitcoin is that it keeps the value because of the limited supply. Adding new virtual currencies means circumventing this limitation (the Bitcoin supply itself doesn't go up that way, but the demand goes down if there's another one, which in effect is the same; the total amount of money increases).

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    64. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      There is a theory I agree with and that is bad money drives out good money. This means if you have two types of money one that holds purchasing power relatively well like gold, silver, or even Swiss Francs and fit currency that is undergoing continous inflation like the dollar people will naturally save the good money and spend the one that will be worth less tomorrow. Makes sense doesn't it?

      Not really. Of course if you own both good and bad money, you'll want to spend the bad money if possible. However, if you are selling things, you want to sell them for good money if possible. The same is of course true of yourself: If you have a choice between getting good money and getting bad money, you'll take the good money (because the bad money will likely have lost value until you can spend it or exchange it for good money). In other words, you'll be able to buy more for good money than for bad money (that's why the bad money is bad money, after all), and you'll try to not have any more bad money than necessary. Since you only will spend money which you have, it means that good money will win against bad money, unless the bad money is protected somehow (e.g. because you have to pay your taxes in it, or because shop owners are legally required to accept it).

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    65. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by AlterEager · · Score: 1

      Wealth is not a superfluid - you've forgotten to take viscocity into account.

    66. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by trout007 · · Score: 1

      I should have been more clear. You are right you can write a contract like that. But if it's broken and you go to court and you have a ruling against you It becomes a debt that you can fulfill by payment with dollars.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    67. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by trout007 · · Score: 1

      You are right. The mistake I made in my explanation is that bad money drives out good only where there are legal tender laws that force you to accept the bad money for payments of debt. Good catch.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    68. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      OK, so legal tender protected bad money drives out unprotected good money.

      Also, legal tender protected good money drives out unprotected bad money (the good money wouldn't need the protection, but it doesn't hurt either).

      In other words, legal tender protected money drives out unprotected money, no matter which one is better.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    69. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The deflationary nature of Bitcoins is not a bug but a feature. That a vulgar Keynesian like Krugman does not like that is no surprise at all.

    70. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I do hope it turns into a real currency, and the deflation problem should go away with time. The proof-of-work follows an asymptotic curve (I think), easy at first and then steadily more difficult, meaning that the massive deflation has/will soon have occurred and hoarding should cease to be viable.

      Complete economics comprehension fail on your part. Easy-at-first and steadily-more-difficult makes deflation worse, not better! The only thing which might halt it is that deflation is caused by demand for a currency exceeding its supply, and I suspect that sooner or later demand for Bitcoins will crash because it's simply not a very practical currency. At that point expect inflation as the hoarders try to cash out before everyone else does.

      The flip side is that if you assume Bitcoin will succeed, you are assuming it will do so in the face of massive deflation. By design there are a finite number of possible Bitcoins, most of which already exist, and there are ways for them to be lost forever. Increasing demand for a finite or even shrinking supply of a currency equals deflation.

      Bitcoin is very cool, not least because it is based in math (very very cool math at that), and it fits better with the Internet than any other monetary system.

      The math is cool. Everything else you just wrote there is naive at best. Bitcoin isn't cool, it's stupid. It's 2011, there are now hundreds of years of painful real-world experience demonstrating how fucked in the head it is to design a currency to deflate. Only people woefully ignorant of economic history can possibly take it seriously. And ordinary money works just fine on the internet, thanks. You can actually use it to buy anything you like. Can't say the same for Bitcoin.

    71. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "'...Bitcoin is flawed.' Specifically, that people hoard it instead of spending it"

      Thank god that real-world bitcoin-owner equivalents like Bill Gates don't hoard billions of dollars ;)

      But yes, bitcoin is bullshit for the greedy.

    72. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just like the blog post, there are some serious errors with this analysis. Bitcoin's economic activity, or the amount of transactions, has not slowed down long term, it has gone up very significantly from the start of the year. Recently the activity has gone down because the economy is recovering from the biggest bubble it has ever seen, but long term it's up by a significant factor. And there is a lot of genuine economic activity going on, new startups and services going up every day.

      Everything else is wrong as well. First of all, the reward for miners is not just BTC. There are transaction fees built-in and it has been envisioned from the start that when the BTC rewards get smaller, transaction fees will rise and miners keep getting something for their efforts. Competition and the true free market in this case will determine what the fees are and there will be different levels of fees that will determine the speed of a transaction.

      And on top of that, there are plenty of reasons for people, including early adopters, to use Bitcoins. The anonymity features, low fees, speedy transfers and very convenient end-user apps. The apps themselves are just starting to become useful but I'm already seeing tons of potential, the Bitcoin Android wallet for example is brilliant.

    73. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>And from a real economist, too.

      Hey, woah, woah. This is Krugman we're talking about here, not a real economist.

      (And before you point out his Nobel, they were talking about giving a Nobel to David X. Li, too. Though to be fair, that was before his CDO risk assessment model destroyed the world's economy. And they DID give a Nobel to Merton and Scholes, who nearly destroyed the world's economy 10 years before.)

    74. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>Hammering your gold coins into leaf yourself and being able to credibly verify its mass, quality, and composition is not practical.

      They're actually a fairly easy to handle currency at various libertarian festival type places. Hand someone a potato-chip sized bit of goal leaf, get a sandwich.

      http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/07/05/137534361/breakfast-at-libertarian-summer-camp

    75. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by zippy590 · · Score: 1

      The biggest flaw in bitcoins is that creating them is destructive. I agree that the deflationary effect is real and serious and this alone would should be enough to prove the system is flawed. But what is worse is that to create bitcoins you expend energy while providing no beneficial goods or services. In credit based monetary system the creation of wealth is constructive. You go to work and create products and services that people want and wealth is created. The currency is a marker for these goods and services, not something that has value in and of itself.

    76. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by trout007 · · Score: 1

      When I said drives out I mean out of circulation and into savings. In this definition protected good money would not drive bad money into savings. The bad money would simply not be used for anything.
      So people want to keep money that holds it value and spend money they expect to lose value.

      Like you said in a free market that doesn't work because people won't accept the bad money. But if there are laws forcing you to take the bad money people will spend the bad money and hoard the good money. For example you only see modern coinage with little precious metals in circulation because all of the good versions with precious metals are held on to and if they are exchanged it is for the precious metal content and not the legal face value.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    77. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by felipe.pait · · Score: 1

      I disagree that "Bitcoin will nearly always be a deflationary system" (and suspect that Krugman would too). What he meant to point out, as I understand, is that under the current deflationary conditions Bitcoin is also deflationary. It is a "flaw" of Bitcoin, if you want, that by itself it doesn't solve the problem caused by the burst of the housing bubble and the wrongheaded responses that politicians gave. But that would be asking too much. The fair question is: does Bitcoin make transactions easier? Another question, academic for the time being, is what would happen if there were inflationary pressures. I suspect that Bitcoin would appreciate, but that's conditional to it becoming a credible reserve of value.

    78. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by garyebickford · · Score: 1

      It means that Bitcoin will nearly always be a deflationary system.

      Which is the problem with all monetary standards based on a fixed (or nearly so) quantity of any physical asset such as gold.

      I wasn't the first to do so, but about 20 years I wrote an unpublished essay proposing that energy would make a pretty good standard - call it the erg standard. (IIRC an economist in the 1960s proposed this in several papers.) The idea is that as an economy grows the amount of energy that is produced also tends to grow at a rate that is more-or-less proportional, which would tend to keep the relationship between the asset and the economic activity reasonably constant. Also energy is something that isn't naturally easy to hoard directly. Of course, an important point is that _anything_ real or imagined can be used as a standard - it's just one commodity in dynamic balance with all others, which happens to be used to 'keep score'. Energy just has the advantage of a built-in growth factor where gold is a physically limited quantity. Also, imagine what would happen to the world economic system if someone found a solid gold asteroid and started shipping vast quantities of gold back down to Earth (not that this would be practical, it's just an example) - the gold standard would suddenly fall apart. But it is unlikely that any energy production method would be extremely much cheaper than existing methods, and if such a method were to be discovered then a political/economic mechanism to deal with this could be instituted.

      For popular usage the standard could denominated in terms such as a kilowatt-hour or BOE. So, for example, instead of oil being priced at $100 per barrel, dollars would be denominated as 0.01 BOE. Note that an actual barrel of oil would cost something more than one BOE, as the cost of production, shipping delivery and business operations would be a component of the delivered cost.

      Similarly, a BOE is 6.12x10^9 Joules, while a KWH is 3.6x10^6 J, which converted at the above rate would be about 5.88 cents (US) per KWH - fairly close to the base cost of electricity in many parts of the US. Of course as delivered it costs more in most locations because of the cost of the electrical grid etc. So my electric bill which is presently about $20 per month might be denominated as 340 KWH instead, while actual usage might be (just making this up as I don't recall actual usage) 200 KWH - equivalent to about 10c per KWH. (Note that I have non-electric heat and hot water, the major energy users in my house - all I have is an electric stove, used once every other day or so, and lights that I keep turned off when I'm not using.)

      --
      It's easier to be a result of the past, but more fun to be a cause of the future! http://www.spacefinancegroup.com/
    79. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by heathen_01 · · Score: 1

      Dividing a bitcoin into a billion billion parts doesn't change the fact that it's deflationary. It doesn't matter how many parts you can make out of it, each part will still be worth more tomorrow, so there's still pressure to hold it rather than spending it.

      1. Re. your argument. We already know this, it's an experimental currency. We want to see what happens.

    80. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Um... every time one of these stories comes up someone points out that very problem.

      Anyone with a trivial understanding of economics knows bitcoin is either a miserably badly designed currency, or a reasonable well implemented scam.

      The proplw ho think otherwise generally just parrot back the claim that real currency doesn't have intrinsic value either, without understanding the difference.

    81. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by dachshund · · Score: 1

      Oil doesn't have a very well defined intrinsic value, because it is easily produced (the *current* scarcity is artificial based on production quotas)

      There's strong reason to believe that oil is no longer constrained by production quotas --- that we're very near peak production right now (or will be within a few years). OPEC is famously unwilling to share its production statistics, so any claims of excess production capability should be taken with a grain of salt.

      To put this another way, if we could double oil production without massively increasing the cost of production, I would eat my hat.

    82. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      This accounts only for a small fraction of its market value.

      Which is why the phrase used was "intrinsic value" not "bloody huge intrinsic value".

      Well in that case almost any substance that can be used for anything at all has "intrinsic value".

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    83. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Had Bitcoin been invented at or about the same time as PayPal, very likely it would have taken over the electronic purchasing exchange market share.

      No, because PayPal uses real money, not the fantasy internet-wank-joke that is bitcoin.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    84. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So much derp in the post. Fucking breathtaking.

    85. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ha! You called Krugman a real economist. That's funny.

    86. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's impossible. Public taste will never swing to lamb no matter how much mint jelly you put on it. Face it, mutton is not very good and there are much better tasting meats available to the majority of the population.

    87. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by boss_hog · · Score: 1

      This is actually mentioned in the bitcoin wiki, here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Deflationary_spiral, but the author of that page doesn't think it will be a problem. Obviously you(and I) disagree.

      The fact that they don't see this as a problem, while stating that "Bitcoins only deflate in value when the Bitcoin Economy is growing" shows just how delusional the strongest bitcoin supporters are. The bitcoin economy must always grow if it is to continue to be valuable to anyone. However, if it does continue to grow, it faces the very real, very large problem of being in a deflationary spiral.

    88. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1

      What's the intrinsic value of gold?

      Gold is the most preferred material to cover the roof of Vishnu Temples. http://www.bharatwaves.com/portal/uploads/original_TTD_4d4d73b65b1b3.jpg Also it is the most recommended material to make armor for Vishnu and his consorts. http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4098/4894875010_e7c89e86c7.jpg The highest possible use for any material is to be in service of The Lord. So yeah, Gold has lots of intrinsic value.

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    89. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1

      You might not even need to find such a vein of gold. There is more gold and other rare metals in the sea water any one can imagine. A breakthrough technology in electrolysis or something could crash the price of all the precious and rare metals.

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    90. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1

      You might not even need to find such a vein of gold.

      There is more gold and other rare metals in the sea water any one can imagine. A breakthrough technology in electrolysis or something could crash the price of all the precious and rare metals. [Correcting the wrong formatting of my posting. sorry]

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    91. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The reason we left the gold standard is so it would be easier for the government to print money (not a good thing). This is a huge misconception. In general, you do not need to expand the monetary supply to make room for growth, and you do not need to expand the monetary supply to make room for increased population.

      I recommend Rothbard's The Mystery of Banking for a better explanation of this.

    92. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lol, you called Krugman a "real economist"

    93. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by T.E.D. · · Score: 1

      Since the amount of Bitcoins is limited, and as time goes on the early adopters get "richer" (since less is being mined),

      OK. Now explain to me how this is not a pyramid scheme.

    94. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is more gold and other rare metals in the sea water any one can imagine. A breakthrough technology in electrolysis or something could crash the price of all the precious and rare metals.

      There's very little gold in seawater, four parts per trillion. That's a long ways from even being theoretically possible.

    95. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Please read the work of Von Mises, or if you want something shorter, Hazlitt. Your statement about gold speculation does not happen when your currency IS gold (or paper convertible to it on a one-to-one face value basis).
      Also, Ayn Rand, Leonard Peikoff, and Yaron Brook have excellent articles on why gold was chosen. As you say, it has to be scarce, have permanence, etc., but you left out it must be easy divisible (nixing a "diamond standard"), and easily portable (leaves out radium, etc.).
      The problem is that Keynesian economists are running the Fed, which runs the bank and has absolute control over the money supply. When the U.S. broke the Bretton-Woods agreement under Nixon, the dollar was allowed to "float", an admission that once it is not at least indexed to gold as some fixed price point (one-to-one, if not face value), it is worth nothing but faith. In 2000, the dollar was worth $0.17 of it's 1971 value. God only knows what it is worth now, but we have a perfect example of how Austrian economists were dead right, and John Maynard Keynes was dead wrong!

    96. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by rthille · · Score: 1

      my response was in response to the AC's statement:
      "*Bitcoins can be subdivided to an extremely high amount. This mitigates to some extent deflation."

      Which I directly refuted. It doesn't matter if the currency is experimental and you want to see what's going to happen, that statement is still false.

      --
      Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/
    97. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by WorBlux · · Score: 1

      Money wouldn't work if people didn't hoard it. Money is never in circulation, but is at any given moment part of one person's monetary reserves or another. Money comes to be demanded in it's own right, and people come to desire or value a certain balance of it. How much people actually demand is dependent on how much it could buy yesterday which was dependent on how big the demand for discrete monetary holdings were yesterday, which was dependent on how much it could buy the day before that... and ad infinitum. (well not forever, but a long time). Right now bitcoin is struggling to establish this sort of history and memory. Deflationary just means that people will tend to decrease their holdings over time. If it takes half as much bitcoin to buy the things you want why is only being able to mine them half as fast an issue?

    98. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by WorBlux · · Score: 1

      Once the reserves were burnt through, at least $1000 dollars an ounce. That's at least what it costs to mine, and there are industrial uses for it for which there is no practicable replacement. (plus paper gold is actual inflated, with at least five times as many claims on gold as there is physical gold.)

    99. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Device666 · · Score: 1

      Nice reply :) The point is that the systematic risk involved with the current system is that it is inherently unstable. When the regulator doesn't regulate the current system (I especially refer to the high risk- high profit sweet spots) than it becomes extremely unstable. When all the shareholders of a regulator are "regulatee", then like any other organization the regulator will only do what's in the interest of their sharholders (regulatee) and thus will not regulate.

      For a regulator to reason to not regulate something, for the sake of financial innovation is the worst possible reason and even more so when one would also involve the historical context of how disruptive financial innovations always have been. And because the derivatives market was explicitly chosen not to be regulated, it became a bubble of hot air 10 times the size of the real economy of the world. It is this bubble that allowed shadow banking, also plays a role in the last recession. The only reason for it not to be regulated is that all banks primary source of income had been securitized products (which are derivatives) and that source was so extremely profitable that banks liked securitized sub-prime mortgages. As all members of the Fed have been working inside commercial banks for a while they exactly know all the profitability, the risks and the addiction of banks to these products, they just chose to look at the other way because they didn;t want to be the party pooper.
      So when governments can very easily expand their debts, and the current banking system is very dangerous for price stability a fixed money system is what you need. Even with a fractional gold standard you can have the healthy inflation you need. How ever with this system governments only procrastinate paying their debts which they are all not able to pay. Then sovereign payday or the unavoidable systematic risks of banks show up (most likely both as we see now). The consequence of such event is a downward correction. And these system shocks have occurred way less during the gold standard.

      The increase because fiat money finance options and inflation is a myth. People may feel wealthy by the easy spending which high debts allow them, but that is illusionary debt. As it's a debt, they don't spend money they have (it's not their money). When such system shock occurs the middle class gets diminished because of investments going sour (e.g. houses), bailing-out banks, stimulus, austerity and inflation.

      Feeling wealthy with high private debt is one thing, if that money would be used to invest in productive means so you can pay back that debt and after that can reap the profits of these productive means. But when people use debt to consume, payday might make them feel suddenly a lot less wealthy.

    100. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Specifically, that people hoard it instead of spending it (creating an unstable monetary system)."

      Isn't that what's happening with "regular" money anyway? 95% of the wealth hoarded by the top 1% of the population? As in, all the money to fix all our problems exists, it's just locked up with someone's name on it? Like, for instance, Apple, who has more cash on hand than the US Treasury?

    101. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by SlothDead · · Score: 1

      I don't get your point at all. Printing money is destructive and Bitcoins don't have any value in and of itself. So what's the difference?

      >while providing no beneficial goods or services
      You DO provide a service, you validate transactions and expand the block chain. This service is very important, if nobody did it, Bitcoin transactions wouldn't go through.

      See, it works like this: In order for Bitcoin to function transactions have to be validated. The amount of work is proportional to the amount of transactions that happened since the last validation block. Since no one would validate other people's transactions for free, people who put in the work to validate get 50 Bitcoins as payments. If validating was easy, everyone would do it and everyone would get a lot of Bitcoins. To prevent that, you have to add this "destructive" element of artificially making validating harder. Only by adjusting how much GPU cycles need to be wasted on average before you create a valid validation block can we make sure, that we only get one new validation block and 50 new Bitcoins every 10 minutes (on average).

      Granted, printing Bitcoins might be MORE destructive than printing money and it would be nice if no calculations were "wasted", but since no one has found a better way to create a decentralized digital currency we have go with Bitcoins for now.

    102. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by LordLucless · · Score: 1

      Exactly - that's the point the OP was making in comparing gold to BitCoins. Unlike almost anything else, BitCoins have no intrinsic value

      --
      Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
    103. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by toddestan · · Score: 1

      That actually happened to Portugal and Spain, back when they were world powers with vast colonies in the Americas. Their explorers found gold, and sizable expenditures were made to set up colonies and operations to mine it. They thought they were generating wealth, but they were mostly just inflating their medium of exchange.

      It's was not such a bad thing for them. They were inflating the value of gold as a currency, but since they were the ones mining the gold, they got to spend it first before the value got (further) diluted. Similar thing today, where the banks and the government get to spend the newly printed dollars first before they too get diluted in value.

    104. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by toddestan · · Score: 1

      I calculate about 5 million cubic meters of gold in all the world's oceans. In comparison, all the gold ever mined is estimated at around 8 thousand cubic meters. So yes, there is a lot of gold in the oceans - but only because the oceans are big. Whether you can extract it profitably is another question entirely.

    105. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh, sure. At some time in the future, Silver will become scarce and production will not meet the demand. Oh, noes! the price will drop and I will become as broke as dirt. NOT! Lack of supply bids up demand.

      The BtC market is in a state of flux as a baby learning to walk. There is no way to analyze it's fluctuations without further data points over a longer period of time. Look here, the BtC RSI is rising and the SAR has an up-tick, Stochastics is crossing over on the daily chart,. It looks technically like it's over sold and at a bottom.
      http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zpsztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMACDzi2gStochRSIzi3gSStochzi4gRSI

    106. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by wrook · · Score: 1

      The proof-of-work follows an asymptotic curve (I think), easy at first and then steadily more difficult, meaning that the massive deflation has/will soon have occurred and hoarding should cease to be viable.

      I think you have a wrong idea about what the proof-of-work is doing and what is causing the deflation. I'll try to explain as best I can.

      The proof of work is a computationally intensive activity used to "authorise" transaction. The clients insist that this computation is done before the transactions are formed into a block and the block is put into the chain of historical transactions (thereby "authorising" them). There are two intents here. The first is to slow down the speed of transactions so that a large number of clients can catch up with the transactions. If you were to allow transactions to occur at any rate, somebody could process them very quickly and dictate the order in which the transactions can occur. This could allow them to double spend bitcoins. By insisting that there be proof-of-work, you can dictate the speed at which transactions are processed (one block every 10 minutes). Blocks are also not official until 100 have gone by. So this gives clients 1000 minutes (nearly a day) to receive the transactions. This is important in a P2P system -- you have to allow time for the transactions to propogate otherwise people can't check up on each other.

      The difficulty of the proof-of-work doesn't necessarily increase over time. The current speed of transaction processing is measured and adjusted every once in a while (2 weeks I think...). The difficulty of the proof-of-work is adjusted so that it takes about 10 minutes on average to create blocks. So if there is more computing power available, the problems get more difficult. If there is less, the problems get easier.

      However, you want the difficulty to be quite high. Even though the rate is adjusted every once in a while, there is always the possibility that someone will pour a lot of hardware on the problem and overtake the network. The lowest level of difficulty was set so that a fairly top end CPU would take 10 minutes to create a block on average. Right now, the difficulty is at about 1.8 million times that. In other words, you would need the equivalent of several hundred thousand processors to (or several thousand graphics boards) to make a dent on that. It is economically infeasible to try. That is why the system encourages increasing the difficulty of solving blocks. It makes it much more difficult/expensive to cheat the system. Or as the original developer said, it is more economically feasible to use those computing resources to make bitcoins ligitimately rather than undermine the very currency you want to use by cheating it. This is also the reason for the rather large initial payouts for solving blocks -- it encourages people to invest computing resources to solve blocks, increasing the difficulty.

      The deflation issue is completely unrelated to this. Deflation is the *increase* in the value of the currency. It seems backwards because of the word "deflation", but what is happening is that the cost of *goods* and services are going down as a result of the currency's value going up. So called fiat currencies are designed for "inflation". The decrease in value. They do this by steadily increasing the supply of money. This is intentional.

      In a fiat currency, your intent is to put money in the hands of people who don't have it. People without money have no resources and can't do anything. If you have absolutely no money, no matter how much you want to farm, or fish, or start a business, you can't do it. You don't have land, or a boat, or capital to buy the materials to manufacture something. So you can't produce anything. You are wasted. In a fiat system, we create money (out of thin air) and lend it to you. By creating money, this devalues the money (there is more of it now), but it allows you to produce. Because you can produce, there is more food,

    107. Re:Terrible summary, decent blog post by zippy590 · · Score: 1

      I agree that printing money could be equally destructive; may a little less because it doesn't cost anywhere near $20 to print a twenty dollar bill. I think our difference of opinion is based on confusion between "hard currency" and "money". The world doesn't run on hard currency, it runs on money which is mostly credit. When the fed votes for quantitative easing nobody calls down to the basement and tells them to fire up the presses. New money is created by economic output which increases the supply of credit with no governmental action. These days fed can only effect changes around the edges and is mostly along for the ride. I don't disagree with bitcoin as a medium of exchange to provide trusted transactions between parties, but presenting, it as a new and improved currency is overreaching.

  15. Re:Bitcoin by ultranova · · Score: 1

    I'm currently profiting around $100 a day, depending on that days exchange rate.

    Getting paid for being actively harmful (using electricity) is precisely why Bitcoin will never amount to anything.

    I don't have electricity costs as I take it from the hallway.

    Ah, so you're a thieve too.

    I had to buy UPS and set up an alarm system tho, as sometimes neighbors are just being dicks and take it off, but it's enough to keep it running for ~5 mins and that's enough time for me to put it back in.

    I wouldn't take it off, I would call the cops and the landlord.

    So overall I think Bitcoin is great. I make nice cash that I turn pure profit soon, I got good amount of awesome computers and it's an interesting thing to follow. It also made me more interested about Forex and stock trading and other financial stuff, which I think I will move onto when Bitcoin mining gets too hard.

    Yes, I guess someone with your talents would be perfectly suited for the financing world.

    --

    Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

  16. Patently Incorrect. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So at the beginning of the article he says, "In effect, Bitcoin has created its own private gold standard world, in which the money supply is fixed rather than subject to increase via the printing press."
    Which is seriously wrong. The money supply is nowhere near fixed. How can his opinion on this be valid when he doesn't have an understanding of what he's criticizing in the first place?

    1. Re:Patently Incorrect. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The money supply is nowhere near fixed.

      It is fixed in that it becomes exponentially harder to print more of it as coins are mined.

    2. Re:Patently Incorrect. by Nursie · · Score: 1

      Of course it's fixed, it's fixed by design. The rate of bitcoin creation was decided when the scheme kicked off, and is pretty much immutable.

      The only thing that changes is that the more people mine it, the harder it gets, giving out less per miner, but keeping the overall creation rate and eventual total exactly the same.

    3. Re:Patently Incorrect. by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      It is limited. But the supply is not fixed. New Bitcoins enter circulation every day.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
  17. Krugman is not an economist. by roman_mir · · Score: 0, Troll

    Why do people care about what Krugman has to say? This is the guy who believes that destruction of wealth is the necessary stimulus that USA needs and that it would be great to have destruction even if by wars or natural disasters?

    He believes there is a real difference in economics between 'micro' and 'macro', which is same nonsense as when the same differences are applied to evolution, so if you ask him - would he like his own house to be destroyed by a tsunami/tornado/flood, I am sure he'd answer - no. It's not good when done to a particular person. Only entire nations need to suffer altogether in wars and alien invasions.

    This is guy is a Keynesian charlattan, he has nothing to do with economics, but his type of 'economics' is pervasive, because the politicians love these guys. The politicians invite these sort of 'economists' to be in the white house to help with policy, and this is the kind of help you get, while the universities then decide to have only these kinds of 'economists' propagate this nonsense further, so you end up with only Keynesian ideology in higher education. Thus all the underlying problems in the economy - because politicians use this charlatanism to give excuse for their only real agenda - stealing your money.

    OK, from TFA:

    What we want from a monetary system isn't to make people holding money rich; we want it to facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich. And that's not at all what is happening in Bitcoin.

    - that's the problem. The entire fiscal policy of USA destroys the value of savings by inflation and this is what destroys the economy.

    Bear in mind that dollar prices have been relatively stable over the past few years â" yes, some deflation in 2008-2009,

    - RELATIVE TO WHAT, YOU DUMBO? Relative to other flawed currencies? :) Well, not to Swiss Franc. Not to Canadian dollar. Not to NZ dollar. Not to Australian Dollar.

    Besides, 2008-2009 is a TERRIBLE time to compare, as too many people completely misunderstood what was happening in the real economy and plunged head first into the dollars, which was the absolute wrong thing to do (and it is wrong thing to do now too, but now people understand it. Look at kitco.com) Too many people actually think that Keynesian charlatanism is economics, so they fall in this trap of following completely wrong ideas.

    Anyway, yes, it's deflation of assets in real terms, so in terms of gold/silver assets are falling in price. It's cheapest gasoline ever today - under 10cents for a gallon, but those are silver cents.

    But the inflation is in dollars, which is why real money is going up.

    then some inflation as commodity prices rebounded, but overall consumer prices are only slightly higher than they were three years ago. What that means is that if you measure prices in Bitcoins, they have plunged; the Bitcoin economy has in effect experienced massive deflation.

    - GOOD. Good for those who hold Bitcoins. Bad for those who hold dollars.

    And because of that, there has been an incentive to hoard the virtual currency rather than spending it. The actual value of transactions in Bitcoins has fallen rather than rising. In effect, real gross Bitcoin product has fallen sharply.

    - This Keynesian wants you to be poor, do you understand that?

    He wants you to pay 3.50USD for your gas, and BTW, he doesn't think it's high enough. They have a target to make it much higher. But he doesn't want you to pay 10 cents for that gallon.

    So to the extent that the experiment tells us anything about monetary regimes, it reinforces the case against anything like a new gold standard â" because it shows just how vulnerable such a standard would

    1. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by h4rr4r · · Score: 2

      that's the problem. The entire fiscal policy of USA destroys the value of savings by inflation

      Thats not a bug, its a feature. You don't seem to understand what the purpose of money is. It is not an investment.

    2. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by roman_mir · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I never said money is investment. You seem to misunderstand me completely.

      Money is savings, it's not an investment. Real money is gold, it's not an investment. It is NOT an investment. Investment is a business. Business that makes money. Be it your own business or somebody else's business that you invest in.

      Money is store of value, medium of exchange and unit of account. USD doesn't work as a store of value, here is the proof:

      sugar Dec 2003: 20.40 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 36.97 cents/pound, price up by over 81%
      Beef Dec 2003: 105.40 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 193.00 cents/pound, price up by over 83%
      Barley Dec 2003: 100.77 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 208.70 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 107%
      Rice Dec 2003: 197.00 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 500.57 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 154%
      Cocoa Beans Dec 2003: 1,646.58 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 3,113.52 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 89%
      Tea Dec 2003: 205.22 cents/KG, Apr 2011: 325.33 cents/KG, price up by over 58%
      Rubber Dec 2003: 57.31cents/pound, Apr 2011: 265.49cents/pound, price up by over 363%
      Corn Dec 2003: 111.98 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 318.45 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 184%
      Bananas Dec 2003: 371.43 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 1,013.47 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 172%
      Propane Dec 2003: 0.63 USD/Gallon, Apr 2011: 1.45 USD/Gallon, price up by over 130%
      Wheat Dec 2003: 165.57 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 336.30 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 103%
      Oranges Dec 2003: 583.00 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 881.00 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 51%
      Salmon Dec 2003: 3.12 USD/Kg, Apr 2011: 7.86 USD/Kg, price up by over 151%
      Chicken Dec 2003: 68.98 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 86.42 cents/pound, price up by over 25%
      Pork Dec 2003: 48.68 cents/pound, Apr 2011: 92.06 cents/pound, price up by over 89%
      Silver Dec 2003: 565.33 cents/Troy ounce, Apr 2011: 4,279.79 cents/Troy ounce, price up by over 657%
      Alluminum Dec 2003: 1,557.78 USD/Metric Ton, Apr 2011: 2,667.44 USD/Metric Ton, price up by over 71%
      Uranium Dec 2003: 13.35 USD/pound, Apr 2011: 57.84 USD/pound, price up by over 333%
      Iron Ore Dec 2003: 13.82 cents/dry Metric Ton, Apr 2011L: 179.26 cents/dry Metric Ton, price up by over 1197% (yeah, almost 1200%)
      Gasoline Dec 2003

    3. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by JebusIsLord · · Score: 0

      obvious troll is trolling

      --
      Jeremy
    4. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by Volante3192 · · Score: 2

      Since we have adopted leaves as legal tender, we have all become immensely rich, but due to high leaf availability we have run across a slight inflation problem meaning it will take three deciduous forests to buy one ship's peanut. Therefore, we are about to embark on a leaf revaluation project... ...and burn down the forest.

      (--HHGTTG)

    5. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Depression is destruction of economy, it happens due to the business cycle that the federal reserve creates.

      One of my interests in 19th and early 20th century US business history and you've seen nothing. Before the Fed, the US economy would fluctuate between booms and panics. Businessmen got on Congresses case to create the Fed to help manage the economy and smooth out the business cycle. Business people HATE uncertainty and LOVE predictability.

      so if you ask him - would he like his own house to be destroyed by a tsunami/tornado/flood,

      No. He would explain to you the parable of the Broken Window

      The rest of your post sounds someone who's very angry at something that Krugman touched on.

    6. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know, I had this experience here on /., and I wrote about it in the journal, where I get moderated down indiscriminately and just in a row, every comment in a row, this went on for days. A few people just like you said: this is a troll.

      Well here is a hint: just because you disagree with what I am saying does not make my message any less valid and does not make me a troll.

      However when you post a comment that basically says that, AFAIC, your comment is trolling.

    7. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by JebusIsLord · · Score: 1

      implying that Krugman advocates war or tragedy either illustrates profound stupidity or an intentional misinterpretation of the concepts he was trying to illustrate. Maybe you've been mislabeled a troll simply because your posts are unbelievably naive?

      --
      Jeremy
    8. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Before the Fed, the US economy would fluctuate between booms and panics.

      Whereas now it fluctuates between booms and decade-long depressions and economic collapse.

      Oh, and they've decreased the dollar's value by 99% in the meantime too.

    9. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by h4rr4r · · Score: 2

      I can buy things in USD not in rice, so I disagree. Money can lose or gain value and still be a store of value. Gold is a commodity. It is not money anymore than uranium is money.

    10. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Um, last time I checked it was pretty hard to get the leaves that matter.

    11. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Slow down there, we figure you were stupid after the second paragraph you didn't need to keep pounding it home.

      Moving money form the wealthy and into circulation is good for the economy.
      And we should pay more for Gas. Seriously. It's a dwindling resource. A critical resource, I might add.

      "- RELATIVE TO WHAT, YOU DUMBO? "
      The fact that you don't understand what he is talking about means you should research, not fall to as homs.

      There is some real issues t discuss about what he says, but you clearly don't understand what he is talking about. Take time tom understand what he talks about, and then refute some of his claims. Until then, you look like another ignorant person waving their dick around calling it a banana.

      I saw a guy doing that in Down town Portland today, can't get the image out of my head.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    12. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Business don't make money, they collect money. There is a huge difference.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    13. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by Z34107 · · Score: 1

      I don't think you understand what a "store of value" is. You can put dollars into a bank, take them out again, and spend them just as you could before.

      Also keep in mind that the current inflation rate is 3.6%, not 1200%. By your definition, there wouldn't be any "stores of value" left in the world.

      --
      DATABASE WOW WOW
    14. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by istartedi · · Score: 2

      Money is store of value, medium of exchange and unit of account. USD doesn't work as a store of value, here is the proof [long list of commodity price increases, snip]

      The "store of value" function isn't boolean. Without some incentive to spend or invest, the money fails. In particular, it fails as a medium of exchange since there is no incentive to spend or invest. Now note, I used the abstract "incentive" without referring to inflation. Inflation is simply the most convenient incentive we've found to compel people to spend or invest their money. Yes, it does gradually erode the store of value function. It's not a bug. It's a feature.

      Aside from that, there is a large range of increases in your commodity prices. If it were all due to dollar devaluation, they shoulud be roughly the same. Iron ore is up the most, I suspect, because of China's massive construction boom. You've also chosen a timeframe during which the Fed has engaged in some controversial policies that have driven commodity speculation. If Slashdot existed in 1988, and you chose 1980 as your baseline, this would be a very different discussion.

      --
      For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
    15. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      Keep in mind the government lies about the true inflation rate, and the Federal Reserve increased their balance sheet by 100% in 2008 alone.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    16. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by holdme · · Score: 1

      There is nothing to imply, here are the facts. Now hold me.

    17. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by JebusIsLord · · Score: 1

      the government doesn't lie about the inflation rate. It is caculated by a multitude of different organizations, both private and public. The reason prices haven't risen despite a 300% rise in monetary base is that we're stuck in a liquidity trap. A bit of inflation would actually be a good thing, because the current malaise is a result of debt (both private and public), and inflation lowers the value of said debt, prompting people and corporations to spend again.

      --
      Jeremy
    18. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by Z34107 · · Score: 1

      "Inflation" describes a currency's value, not how much is in circulation.

      Besides, TFA points out that inflation was negative from 2008 to 2009. The fact that you didn't lose half of your wealth over that time frame should tell you that the rate of inflation wasn't 100%.

      --
      DATABASE WOW WOW
    19. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by superwiz · · Score: 1

      Nobel has lost all credibility as a prize in economics because Krugman got it. Almost any economist who made predictions which have been verified as having come true considers him a charlatan.

      --
      Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    20. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      "Inflation" describes a currency's value, not how much is in circulation.

      I see you keep saying that, so I guess that means you think there is no connection between the two?

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    21. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Posing as AC, because again, the karma limit hit.

      Without some incentive to spend or invest, the money fails.

      - money doesn't fail. There is always reason to invest, as 19 century USA has clearly shown - there was monetary deflation and prices were falling and yet USA was extremely productive and competitive and innovative.

      Aside from that, there is a large range of increases in your commodity prices. If it were all due to dollar devaluation, they shoulud be roughly the same. Iron ore is up the most, I suspect, because of China's massive construction boom.

      - what you don't understand is that increase in demand also increases supply and prices do fall, not rise as there is more money to be made and more suppliers enter the market.

      Not all prices go up at the same exact rates for various reasons, but they are all moving up and gold is going up and relative to gold the prices are quite stable.

      You've also chosen a timeframe during which the Fed has engaged in some controversial policies that have driven commodity speculation

      - all of the price hikes are driven by dollar devaluation. This is no speculation, in fact gold is in a bull market but very few people own it. As to other commodities - they are tracing amount of dollars that are chasing them.

      If Slashdot existed in 1988, and you chose 1980 as your baseline, this would be a very different discussion.

      - Volcker raised interest rates to over 20% in 81, gold came back down to about 300USD, but it rose from 71 to 81 from 35 to 800.

      It took huge interest rate hike to bring gold down to 300 and it makes sense, as US currency started being an investment in itself.

    22. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by TheSync · · Score: 1

      Krugman's work on modern trade theory was worthy of a Nobel Prize.

      The stuff he spouts in his column is another story...

    23. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by benjamindees · · Score: 3, Interesting

      the government doesn't lie about the inflation rate. It is caculated by a multitude of different organizations, both private and public.

      Uh-huh. And if you calculate it the same way it was calculated thirty years ago, before the government changed the formula for some mysterious reason, you'll see that the real rate is actually much higher than the official number.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    24. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by Ruke · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What we want from a monetary system isn't to make people holding money rich; we want it to facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich. And that's not at all what is happening in Bitcoin.

      - that's the problem. The entire fiscal policy of USA destroys the value of savings by inflation and this is what destroys the economy.

      Spending money is literally what drives the economy. Saving money in a bank does make it available for other people to borrow so that they may spend it. The "redistribution of wealth" is the benefit here, though, not the saving itself.

      Bear in mind that dollar prices have been relatively stable over the past few years â" yes, some deflation in 2008-2009,

      - RELATIVE TO WHAT, YOU DUMBO? Relative to other flawed currencies? :) Well, not to Swiss Franc. Not to Canadian dollar. Not to NZ dollar. Not to Australian Dollar.

      Relative to the purchasing power of the dollar a few years ago. A Big Mac, or a loaf of bread, or a new car costs about as many USD today as it did a few years ago. The dollar is stable. A Big Mac costs a wildly different number of BitCoins today than it did a month ago. The BitCoin is unstable.

      then some inflation as commodity prices rebounded, but overall consumer prices are only slightly higher than they were three years ago. What that means is that if you measure prices in Bitcoins, they have plunged; the Bitcoin economy has in effect experienced massive deflation.

      - GOOD. Good for those who hold Bitcoins. Bad for those who hold dollars.

      Good for those who hold Bitcoins without spending them. Bad for those who spent them. Pretty soon, people will realize that it makes more sense to hold onto Bitcoins than spend them, so no one will spend Bitcoins - they'll hoard them, and spend, say, Dollars instead. This weakens the Bitcoin economy, because no one is spending Bitcoins.

      And because of that, there has been an incentive to hoard the virtual currency rather than spending it. The actual value of transactions in Bitcoins has fallen rather than rising. In effect, real gross Bitcoin product has fallen sharply.

      - This Keynesian wants you to be poor, do you understand that?

      He wants you to pay 3.50USD for your gas, and BTW, he doesn't think it's high enough. They have a target to make it much higher. But he doesn't want you to pay 10 cents for that gallon.

      Absolutely. He wants you to have to pay $15 per gallon in 50 years. He also wants minimum wage to be $45 in 50 years. He wants inflation - the purchasing power of $1 to decrease - and for people to have more dollars. This is good for the economy, because it means that spending money is more sensible than hoarding it. This means that people have to keep on working to get more money, and more economic product is produced.

    25. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by SomeKDEUser · · Score: 1

      But the link is not immediate, nor trivial.

      The nominal number of bills with dead presidents may double without more money circulating. This is what we see now.

      The reason is simple: although more money was printed, most of it went to bank coffers to prop up their capital reserves. It was not lent and therefore never got to be used for buying goods and services.

      Thus inflation stayed flat.

      The other poster was right: inflation describes the value of currency, and its value is entirely determined by how much people think it is (same for gold, BTW). This is related to the amount of currency passing through everyone's hands. Not to the amount there is, somewhere, in a vault.

    26. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by icebraining · · Score: 1

      Pretty soon, people will realize that it makes more sense to hold onto Bitcoins than spend them, so no one will spend Bitcoins - they'll hoard them, and spend, say, Dollars instead.This weakens the Bitcoin economy, because no one is spending Bitcoins.

      The thing is: there's no Bitcoin economy. Almost all the transactions are simply buying and selling dollars, nothing else. Hoarders are mostly irrelevant because there's nothing to weaken.

    27. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by istartedi · · Score: 1

      money doesn't fail. There is always reason to invest, as 19 century USA has clearly shown - there was monetary deflation and prices were falling and yet USA was extremely productive and competitive and innovative

      OK, much as the "store of value" function isn't boolean, the "medium of exchange" function isn't boolean either. Perhaps it's my bad to say "fail" and not qualify it, although this is beginning to look like one of those threads where you'd have to specify the entire unbounded set of qualifiers in order to "win".

      Anyway, the medium of exchange function has indeed begun to show signs of failure under the kinds of systems that Austrian (economists) favor. In fact, one of the more famous examples of a currrency failing and being successfully replaced by a local currency took place in Austria during the Great Depression. (pure coincidence that this happened in Austria). Googling around it seems that Austria had already abandoned the gold standard at that point; although it's unclear from my quick search as to whether or not they attempted Keynesian stimulus. The incident is a strong argument for free banking; but since it's just a small town it's hard to say if it argues for or against Keynesian stimulus at the national level.

      Anyway, money can fail. As for the US during the 19th century, we were exploiting natural resources at unchecked rates, taking Indian lands, exploiting cheap labor from Irish and other immigrants, and (during the first half) exploiting slave labor. It's an apples and oranges sort of comparison, loaded with externalities, measured with meters and sold for miles. I've grown tired of this, and don't care to debate the other points...

      --
      For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
    28. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by elbonia · · Score: 2
      You are actually looking at the data incorrectly, you should look at it as a rate of chnage.

      http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=beef&months=360&commodity=beef.

      If you look at rate of change it has stayed within a constant margin. Picking dates and comparing cost on market adds little value in this debate. For example on gasoline you state Dec 2003: 0.89 and Apr 2011: 3.18 USD/Gallon, however I could just have easily picked Dec 2008 when it was 0.96, 5.6% change. In fact run these numbers from Dec 2003 to Dec 2008 and see what you get. Supply and demand play the major role here not the currency involved.

    29. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by digsbo · · Score: 1

      You misunderstand what money is supposed to be. It's supposed to be a store of value.

    30. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by superwiz · · Score: 1

      But it, nonetheless, discredits the prize when a prize holder spouts such provable nonsense. I mean it's almost as if a winner of a prize in medicine started doubting existence of DNA. It would undermine the prize itself.

      --
      Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    31. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You miss the point.

      roman_mir: Krugman is not an ecnomist.

      Reply: Krugman has a Nobel and quite a few notable publications. On the other hand, I have no evidence to support the claim that roman_mir is an economist.

    32. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by JebusIsLord · · Score: 1

      nothing mysterious - there is no conspiracy here. Economists moved to "core inflation" because things like energy and food are extremely volatile. Inflation should refer to sticky prices, ie things that tend to resist going down again once they go up (or vice versa). Wages are extremely sticky, then things like cars and houses.

      Wages are currently flat or even decreasing, while housing prices have clearly decreased. Car prices are pretty flat. There is no significant inflation going on here.

      --
      Jeremy
    33. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by roman_mir · · Score: 1

      Money does not fail.

      Gold is money, anything else that is printed is a promise note - currency. Currencies fail.

      Currencies fail, money does not.

      Here is a clue by 4 - this is what US 10 year bonds have been doing since the 60s. Note how the yield is now lowest ever? The price for that bond is highest ever, while the currency is being printed out of existence, which is given to banks and by doing currency swaps it's also given to foreign national banks, all while foreign national banks also hoard US currency?

      All of this currency goes into buying T-bills, so this is the clear indicator of where inflation is taking T-bills and thus where the reverse is going (interest rates on the 10 year bonds.)

      This is the destruction path that I am talking about, this is going to burst and explode, and when it does, you are going to be stuck with nothing if you do not have real money.

      Oh, and I wrote a couple of journal entries, one on HFT and the reasons as to why people don't understand it and don't understand what is causing it, and the other on this entire broken /. moderation system.

      Enjoy

    34. Re:Krugman is not an economist. by TheSync · · Score: 1

      People often get a bit crazy after winning the Nobel Prize. Look at Linus Pauling, who won for determining the nature of the chemical bond linking atoms into molecules, including his key work on the alpha helix of protein structure. Then he started spouting off crazy (unsupported) stuff about vitamin C and cancer.

      And there was Einstein and the cosmological constant...

  18. The main problem: Greed by imsabbel · · Score: 3, Insightful

    While bitcoin is quite interesting from a cryptography point of view, it totally fails to address human nature.

    In particular, GREED.

    2 years ago it was trivially easy to mine 100s of bitcoins. Hell, you could by 1000 for less than a happy meal. Now people sit on those coins, hoping that bitcoin will become a mainstream currency, in which case the value of a bitcoin would need to rise by many orders of magnitudes. If it reached a capitalization compareable to the USD, that bigmac would become equivalent of $25M.

    And there are people around with a much much larger fraction of possible bitcoins than there were ever for any real currency. And the deflationary nature of it will mean that the value of those horders (and thus their economical power) WILL have to grow in case of a success of bitcoin.

    --
    HI O WISE PRINCE. WHT TOOK U SO DAM LONG?
    1. Re:The main problem: Greed by geekoid · · Score: 0

      bitcoin can't work because people outside of a country would be able to undercut a different countries monetary system.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    2. Re:The main problem: Greed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bitcoin is designed to be a deflationary currency, ie like gold. There is a gradual inflationary boot strap phase where 'mining' creates new bit coins out of nothing, but that is eventually slated to end. Once it has a fixed circulation it is fully deflationary. 'mining' will be rewarded because all the transaction fees associated with a completed block go to the miner.

      I'm not sure something like this has ever been tried before, generally the banks and state get involved in some way to always create inflation. What happens if you cryptographically prevent that kind of meddling? Nobody knows for sure, certainly not Krugman, who spent his life studying inflationary economics.

      The transaction rate is going to be governed by supply/demand - hording the currency doesn't change that, but it will certainly affect the settlement price, which should fall over time in an environment with significant hording. Yes, the 'GDP' as measured in bit coins will fall, but the 'GDP' measured in exchange of tonnes of oil/food/goods will not change, and is independent.

      Dumping your horde is the same as increasing circulation + inflation, and will globally rise prices if the horde is big enough. However, the critical point: having a huge horde is a one time deal. You get to spend it once. It doesn't sit there and earn you a huge free cash flow like we see with fiat today (eg interest). That drastically limits the power a horde has over the entire economy.

      Think about it, if you attempt to lend your horde to earn an income off of it, it is now fully circulating.

      Psychologically, the biggest problem is that people are unlikely to accept that their paycheques will also decrease proportional to the systemic deflation of the system. People are trained to accept that their paycheques have a constant face value, but decline in purchasing power due to inflation.

      On the other hand, human nature being what it is, if you give someone the power to steal your purchasing power they eventually will. The US$ has had drastic inflation in the past 100 years, the economic 'gain' from that inflation was collected/stolen by the big banks and government. This is main way that fiat currencies totally fail to address human nature.

      Pick your poison.

    3. Re:The main problem: Greed by superwiz · · Score: 1

      Not really. Main cost in generation is cost of energy. And the cost of energy is controlled by cost of world-wide generation and use of natural resources. These are fungible.

      --
      Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    4. Re:The main problem: Greed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bitcoin can only succeed if all early bitcoins, let's say the first half, are subjected to steady and steep devaluation. This could be worked into the protocol by requiring transaction fees that are proportional to the time since the last transaction. This is called demurrage.
      The fact that Bitcoin has a fixed maximum money supply does not inherently cause it to be deflationary. Unfortunately, the people who would have to cause this modification are also the ones who are most likely hoarding massive amounts, so they won't work towards devaluing their riches. That is what dooms Bitcoin.

    5. Re:The main problem: Greed by teaserX · · Score: 1

      ... inflation, and will globally rise prices if the horde is big enough..For the Horde! /me raises fist . However, the critical point: having a huge horde is a one time deal...Strength and Honor!.../train...

      FTFY

      --
      We really need your help
      http://www.gofundme.com/help-sherry
    6. Re:The main problem: Greed by Shwag · · Score: 1

      In almost all forms of investment, early adopters profit from the rise in value. I dont see why this is any different.

    7. Re:The main problem: Greed by subreality · · Score: 1

      The problem is that a currency should be stable, not a speculative investment. No one wants a currency where the value of their wallet is subject to huge market fluctuations.

  19. Re:Bitcoin by zill · · Score: 4, Informative

    how easy it was for people to scam you out of bitcoins by contesting Paypal payments

    1. Scammer buys bitcoins on ebay.
    2. Seller sends the bitcoins
    3. Scammer pretends he never received them, and reports this as a fraudulent transaction to Paypal
    4. Paypal asks the seller for evidence that he has sent the goods (i.e. a tracking number)
    5. Sellers explains what bitcoins is, digital revolution, bring back the gold standard, Ron Paul 2012 et cetera
    6. Instead of a tracking number, Paypal gets a bunch gibberish, so it rules in the scammer's favor
    7. Rinse and repeat

    This applies to pretty much all virtual goods on eBay, so it's not really a bitcoin problem as much as it is a Paypal problem.

    This whole digression is moot in the end because there are dozens of bitcoin exchanges out there now, so there's no need to rely on Paypal. Admittedly it was a problem in the early days before exchanges were established, so that's no longer the case.

  20. Re:Bitcoin by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 4, Insightful

    . I don't have electricity costs as I take it from the hallway

    There ain't no free lunch. Either you're still paying for that electricity indirectly, or someone else is bearing that cost. If the latter - which seems to be more likely - then it's about as moral as tapping that electricity and reselling it directly, then pocketing the profit.

    Just because something is provided to you "for free" (really, at the expense of your community) doesn't mean that you should feel free to abuse it for your own sake.

  21. Re:Bitcoin by arogier · · Score: 1

    With that kind of power, I do wonder if bitcoin mining is the most profitable application for it.

  22. Re:Bitcoin by icannotthinkofaname · · Score: 2

    You'd think the retard selling the bitcoins would just use a block explorer to point to the number of the block containing the transaction and show that as proof that the coins were sent and credited to the buyer's address instead of going through all that bullshit you listed in step 5.

    If PayPal wants some kind of "tracking number" for the bitcoins, the block number containing the to/from addresses is as good as you're gonna get.

    --
    Let q be a radix > 1. I am in ur base-q, killing 10 d00ds.
  23. Trust this AC just one time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Trust me (and I know this sounds funny coming from an AC), this particular story is totally worth reading at -1 moderation, because that's where the best comments will be.

  24. That's precisely what central banks *do* by Goonie · · Score: 1

    However, they try to do so with a bit more subtlety than Adams' imagined Golgafrinchan macroeconomists.

    And immensely more subtlety than our friend the OP, whom is utterly delusional. Encouraging currency hoarding rates roughly up there with Caucescu's "export everything" policy as the silliest economic policy idea of all time.

    --

    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
    --Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
  25. Bitcoin by geekoid · · Score: 1

    is the digital implementation of the 1800 con with the same name.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  26. Re:Bitcoin by HornWumpus · · Score: 2

    Yep, he should be growing weed.

    --
    John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  27. Paul Krugman? LOL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Paul Krugman?

    Is this the same guy that said we should fake an alien invasion in order to fix the US Economy?
    Is this the same guy that in 2002 that the federal government should create a housing bubble in order to recover from the dot com bubble?

    If any one still thinks this guy isn't a lunatic, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell you.

    1. Re:Paul Krugman? LOL by rthille · · Score: 1

      Citation on the 2002 bit please. And he didn't say the alien invasion thing is the right solution, but that it would be a solution to our current crisis.

      --
      Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/
    2. Re:Paul Krugman? LOL by jcr · · Score: 1

      Citation on the 2002 bit please.

      Here you go.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    3. Re:Paul Krugman? LOL by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Ah, the lying liars of mises.org lying some more. To quote from Krugman's 2002 editorial:

      " And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble."

      Now that obviously gets twisted into "Krugman called for a housing bubble." Right. Sorry, do the Austrian voodoo priests have any argument at all? All I get is lies and propaganda.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    4. Re:Paul Krugman? LOL by brian0918 · · Score: 1

      Read the original article in the NYT you dolt! He is clearly saying that he agrees with Paul McCulley's suggestion.

    5. Re:Paul Krugman? LOL by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Nowhere does he call for building a bubble. He calls for easing off on interest to increase household spending - quite logically, if you got a trade deficit like the US and have to fuel your economy by internal spending. He cites someone calling somewhat ironically for a fresh bubble in his argument for finally stopping to strangle the internal economy. But reading comprehension - especially when it comes to comprehending rhetorical subtlety - was never the strength of the faithful apprentices of the Austrian propaganda masters.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    6. Re:Paul Krugman? LOL by brian0918 · · Score: 1
      I don't get what you can't grasp about this, so I will make it as clear as possible by omitting an irrelevant accreditation:

      To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that,... Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.

      You cannot possibly continue to claim that "nowhere does he call for building a bubble". To do so is to deny reality and claim that what he wrote is not what he meant - but something more "subtle".

    7. Re:Paul Krugman? LOL by rthille · · Score: 1

      I'd agree that Krugman thought that a housing bubble was going to be necessary to replace the slump in business investment following the dot-com bubble. I don't think he expected the insane level of fraud and leverage that we got though. So I think even his detractors should be willing to accept that there was a lot of difference between what he was calling for and we got...

      --
      Awesome furniture, accessories and cabinetry in Santa Rosa, CA: http://humanity-home.com/
    8. Re:Paul Krugman? LOL by jcr · · Score: 1

      That article cites numerous instances of Krugman advocating the housing bubble. They also missed one that I recall, which was in an interview in Der Spiegel.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
  28. History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by drnb · · Score: 1

    History also shows that Keynesian policies can fail to address an economic crisis. This led some Keynesian advocates to rethink things, including the often ignored "future" costs and unintended consequences of "today's" Keynesian stimulus, and develop the approach of Monetarism.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetarism

    Is Keynesian theory wrong, not quite, just incomplete. Not a universal solution. Its like physicists moving from Newton to Einstein. Its not that Newton was "wrong", he just had an incomplete understanding and methods that were often useful but universally applicable.

    1. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by Wonko+the+Sane · · Score: 3, Informative

      Keynsian theory stated that the government should run deficits during cyclical depressions and surpluses during periods of growth that fully pay down the debt to "smooth out" the business cycle .

      The second half prescription has never once been practiced because a government running a surplus is as unnatural as water flowing uphill.

    2. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by m.ducharme · · Score: 1

      That's funny, my government ran surpluses for years before the Great Recession. Now it's running a deficit, but apparently our own current great leader plans to run surpluses again by 2014.

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    3. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by Wonko+the+Sane · · Score: 1

      my government ran surpluses for years before the Great Recession.

      Can you provide some sort of citation for that assertion, or at least name the country you are referring to?

    4. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by WhiplashII · · Score: 2, Insightful

      In this way, it is much like Communism: "It only doesn't work because no one does it right!" The fact is, expecting a government entity to impose limits on itself in order to make a plan work is tautologically identical to saying it doesn't work.

      --
      while (sig==sig) sig=!sig;
    5. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by m.ducharme · · Score: 2

      Canada. Googling "canada budget surplus history" turns up several relevant hits, including blogs referencing the surpluses, news stories talking about it, and this page at the Government of Canada website. Surpluses became the norm after Chretien and his finance minister Paul Martin balanced the budget in the 1990's or so, and remained that way until the last Harper government, who went into deficit spending as a response to the recession. And just as an aside, after Chretien did his budget balancing act, most if not all of the provincial governments had to follow suit. Voters simply stopped accepting deficit spending in good economic times.

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    6. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by drnb · · Score: 1

      The failure is not the surplus / smoothing out issue that you mention. Keynesian policies completely fail to produce results at all under some circumstance, for example those of the 1970s. Regarding today's crisis, I don't think we know yet. I'm mainly bringing all this up to counter the notion that Keynesian policies are some sort of magic bullet that makes economies better in the short term.

    7. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by sr180 · · Score: 1

      Australia did exactly this, we were running good surpluses and did fully pay our debt before the Global Financial Crises. It definitely helped us weather the storm.

      --
      In Soviet Russia the insensitive clod is YOU!
    8. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by Wonko+the+Sane · · Score: 1

      I'm not saying that Keynesianism is a good idea or it works, but rather pointing out that what's currently practiced can't honestly be called Keynesianism.

    9. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by Wonko+the+Sane · · Score: 1

      I don't know enough about Canadian finances to know whether the claimed surplus is real or if the government is playing accounting games with off-balance sheet items and/or unfunded liabilities.

    10. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by m.ducharme · · Score: 2

      I'm pretty sure they were real, not through personal knowledge but because funny bookkeeping seems to come out to the public sooner or later, usually sooner. The last government fell in part because of funny bookkeeping. Of course, they got re-elected with a majority, so what can you do?

      There has often been related funny business that has gotten exposed. A few of our surpluses actually came out of the funds set aside for Employment Insurance, when employment numbers did better than expected. The government of the time (Liberal I think) just rolled those surpluses into the general funds where they went to debt repayment. Some of the opposition parties thought the money should be reserved in the EI funds or paid out in increased benefits. There was a minor stink about it. Having more than one opposition party is a great aid to catching bookkeeping cheats and tricks.

      Does all of this mean the surpluses were real? Not really, but it suggests it strongly. Also, the surpluses in question were on the order of 1 or 2 Billion dollars. Not a huge amount compared to the total budget, but still big enough to be hard to "create" with bad accounting. Also, when the first surplus it, it was quite controversial: the conservatives of the time pushed hard to make it illegal to run surpluses, arguing that the money belonged to the taxpayer, and should go right back to him. But not allowing surpluses when there's a huge debt to pay off would be idiotic, wouldn't it? No civilized country would pass a law like that, right?

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    11. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by m.ducharme · · Score: 1

      Also, these surpluses were created under three different governments, of two different political philosophies: Chretien (Liberal), Martin (Liberal) and Harper's minorities (Conservative).

      Not even the socialist NDP would risk running a deficit budget in good economic times any more.

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    12. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by m.ducharme · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And yet, there are governments in the world that do impose limits on themselves and make plans work. Something doesn't become logically impossible just because it's not within your experience.

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    13. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by m.ducharme · · Score: 2

      Ironically, it's exactly in the short term, when liquidity trap conditions apply (like now, and unlike the 70's) that Keynesian policies work. In the long term, they lead to contraction. In stagflation conditions, ineffective. Krugman has been explaining, talking about, making predictions about, and refining his models of all of this stuff since 2008, and his predictions have been almost always right (he thought wages would drop, they didn't, that's the only thing he's missed as far as I can tell). No modern economist is arguing that Keynesian policies are a magic bullet.

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    14. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Examples.

    15. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by timbo234 · · Score: 1

      Australia too, before the GFC our net government debt was around zero after years of consistent surpluses. The government plans a surplus again next year too.

      --
      Pre-canned Evolution Links for all those Slashdot holy wars.
    16. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by Wildclaw · · Score: 2

      In this way, it is much like Communism: "It only doesn't work because no one does it right!" The fact is, expecting a government entity to impose limits on itself in order to make a plan work is tautologically identical to saying it doesn't work.

      And that is why fiat currencies are so superior to the gold standard. With a fiat currency you always have the ability to pay back any debt, but at the same time there is also no need for it as you can always print the interest you need to pay.

      Government debt in essence becomes little more than a subsidize on private savings. Of course, governments can still screw up in the short term, but unlike with a more primitive system like the gold standard you aren't screwed in the long term.

    17. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They're real. The auditor general and others ensure that, and no one (including the media) is shy to point out when the government tries to play games (see: sponsorship scandal, the G8 summit shenanigans, etc.). Though it may be the norm in the US, running a defecit during good times is a big political no-no in Canada now.

    18. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Canada been a lot less effected by the economic downturn than the US?

    19. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      No, it's not. It's perfectly possible for that to happen. Those elected just have to know that the voters won't stand for officials that won't abide by those limits.

    20. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by m.ducharme · · Score: 1

      Yes and no, our financial sector was never in as much trouble, but our manufacturing is tied closely to the US economy (nobody buys Canadian more than the US does). We did better than the US because of the deficit spending in the form of stimulus projects. Now that the stimulus money is going away and the gov is tightening its belt again, we're seeing a dip in our economy. I think the government expected the US economy to have recovered by now, and it hasn't, and without the stimulus it's dragging us back down.

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    21. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by snarfer · · Score: 1

      Clinton was running a rather large surplus. Before the Bush tax cuts it looked like the entire US debt would be paid off by now.

    22. Re:History also shows Keynesian policies can fail by Wonko+the+Sane · · Score: 1

      Clinton was running a rather large surplus.

      That's a common claim but it's not at all supported by the facts.

      Please go to the US Treasury department's official website, look up the "Debt to the Penny" data series and point out during which year in the Clinton administration (or any administration for that matter) the Total Public Debt Outstanding was reduced from the previous year.

  29. Re:Bitcoin by zill · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The fact is "blockexplorer", "block chain", "bitcoin address" are complete gibberish to Paypal (more accurately the minimal wage drone in India working for Paypal). They are trained to either take a USPS, Fedex, or UPS tracking number and verify whether that shipment matches the buyer's and seller's address. That's all they know how to do. No matter how much you explain bitcoins to them they will not understand.

  30. i looked into it by superwiz · · Score: 1

    At the current difficulty (you know what that means if you mine bitcoins) and the current rates of kW-hours in the US, it would take about $0.35 of electricity to generate $0.02 of bitcoins. The cost of power if the main cost of generating. There has been a steady decline in the exchange rate of bitcoins in the past month and at the same time a steady decline in the difficulty. These two are supposed to be inversely proportional. The only conclusion I reached was that the proportion of bitcoins generated with stolen cycles or stolen power is rising. Not coincidentally, there was recently a report of increasing use of botnets for bitcoin generation (that would be the increased number of stolen cycles). Apparently, people with access to electricity paid through commons are contributing to the generation of bitcoins from stolen electricity.

    --
    Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    1. Re:i looked into it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are mistaken. At in the at $0.16/kwh with a Radeon HD 6990, it costs about $5 worth of to electricity generate a bitcoin which is currently worth about $7.

      Other parts of the country have cheaper electricity, and other Radeon cards are more efficient.

    2. Re:i looked into it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you were cynical you could say that the stupid will pay for the bitcoin system (people who can't secure their computers) and the smart will be using the system for free. Great news for slashdot readers!

      I wonder if the horders actually can break the system. I think what matters is the absolute number of people using Bitcoins as a currency, not the percentage of these: If there are enough people who are willing to pay with bitcoins sellers have an incentive to offer it as a payment method (Unlike Paypal etc there are no fees) and that should be enough to make Bitcoin work.

      Even if the Bitcoin value crashes down to one cent per Bitcoin, this shouldn't matter at all since all Bitcoin related businesses would still work just as fine.

    3. Re:i looked into it by superwiz · · Score: 1

      Are you talking currently? Or 3 months or months ago? At what difficulty?

      --
      Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    4. Re:i looked into it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I do not know where you got your math for electricity costs and bitcoin value.

      Personally I make about $0.27 per hWh as profit. Then again I actually watch how much power I use. I also know the exact amount I pay for my electricity after all the extra fees. Winds up being around $0.096/kWh.

      Now if you are using an nVidia card. Yes you would be screwed for energy consumption. nVidia is the worst for mining beside CPU's. Tesla cards are no better.

      I believe the decline in the exchanges is due to IOcoins, IXcoins and all the other wannabe's.

      I do not agree with botnet mining. Yet I also have a point of view for the ones infected. It is their fault for trying to get something free over the internet or look at those young girls in the chatrooms and get a java drive-by or many many other exploits. As people are too trusting on the internet.

      As for stealing from commons. I am not sure exactly what you mean. So i will guess that you mean they are stealing it from public outlets for electricity. If this is the case. it is the person whom owns said socket to lock it up. I have used sockets outside that have vending machines attached to them. just to charge my phone. Then again I have also found these sockets to be locked or filled with epoxy.

      If you are trying to stop people from mining. You may have succeeded with your post.

  31. Keynes like Newton by drnb · · Score: 1

    Qualifying Krugman as a "prominent Keynesian economist" is like calling Stephen Hawking a "prominent Einsteinian physicist".

    I call shenanigans.

    That analogy would make sense only if the theories of John Maynard Keynes were as universally accepted as those of Einstein. Economics never has been and probably never will be as testable a science (if it's a science at all) as physics.

    Actually Keynesian theory would be more akin to Newton's. Sometimes useful, but it can fail under some circumstances. As Newton's followers went on to refine things with Einstein's theories, some of Keynes' followers went on to refine things and came up with Monetarism.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetarism

    1. Re:Keynes like Newton by exentropy · · Score: 1

      Keynesian theory is more certainly not akin to Newton's theories. Keynesianism differs significantly from other prominent schools such as the Chicago School, the Austrian School, etc. If you read up on the different approaches, you'll see that economists disagree a lot about some pretty basic things and we're really far away from a consensus.

    2. Re:Keynes like Newton by drnb · · Score: 1

      You are taking things a bit too literal. Keynes was compared to Einstein, I thought Newton a better characterization with the monetarists being more comparable to Einstein in this context. I'm sort of reluctant to bring in other schools of thought in the dismal science since I really don't want have to start assigning these to ancient greek philosophers. :-)

    3. Re:Keynes like Newton by sonicmerlin · · Score: 1

      The Austrian and Chicago schools aree most certainly not prominent.

  32. Fundementally flawed by gatkinso · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Bitcoin is the equivalent of a nations currency that has been printed by individuals by permission.

    This fact alone is its undoing.

    Your GPU's do not constitute value. Nobody will accept the fact that you are a bitcoin millionaire simply because you let a few unused computers run for a few months.

    --
    I am very small, utmostly microscopic.
    1. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am 29 and retired thanks to early involvement in bitcoin. While it might not be considered a real currency, it did help me make a lot of real currency. :)

    2. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bitcoin is the equivalent of a nations currency that has been printed by individuals by permission.

      Not by permission, by the rules in the protocol that govern Bitcoin creation.

      Your GPU's do not constitute value. Nobody will accept the fact that you are a bitcoin millionaire simply because you let a few unused computers run for a few months.

      My GPU's are my pickax and shovel. They do not constitute value directly, but they are the tools of the trade. That doesn't take into account their resale value as electronics, which are going for a premium right now, even used.

    3. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thanks for contributing nothing of value to the conversation. Absolutely no one is saying or has ever said that Bitcoin represents the intrinsic value of computing power.

    4. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The share market creates $ by allowing people with spare $ to loan them to those in need of them to develop and grow now.

      That is identical to Bitcoin. you might as well have said..

      You Spare $ do not constitute value... Nobody will accept the fact that you are now an Apple millionaire simply because you loaned a few unused dollars to some tiny computer company back in 1982 and sat back for a few years while they did all the work.

      So people with spare Terabytes of hashing power who have been visionary early contributors to a distributed network that cryptographically secures the most difficult-to-counterfeit blockchain of transactions in the entire world dont deserve anything for their foresight ? right. envy much ?

      Can I have any stock market shares you might own please ? You obviously dont think they are deserved earnings.

    5. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A gold mine does not constitute value. Nobody will accept that you are a millionaire simply because you dug a few worthless yellow rocks out of the ground.

    6. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All currencies are merely tolerated/accepted by popular consent. By your argument nobody would tolerate paper or gold millionaires simply because they game the current systems to obtain unnecessarily large amounts of what they consider represents wealth. I suppose a key difference is ones awareness of the fact they are gaming the system to get rich in one case and a lack of ability or willingness to perceive that they are doing the same in the other case.

    7. Re:Fundementally flawed by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      Consider for a second just what *does* constitute value in the modern economy: environmental degradation, fraudulent financial instruments, political cronyism, ponzi schemes, front-running future generations, designed obsolescence, indiscriminate militarism, forced wealth re-distribution. What makes you think GPUs are worse?

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    8. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They made an investment that provided the services of increasing the security of the network, and they received a fee for that.
      I dont see how that is any different then having invested in Google early on.

    9. Re:Fundementally flawed by Myopic · · Score: 1

      I see what you are saying, but real money seems equally nonsensical. What, I'm supposed to believe that a guy is a millionaire because he let a computer make a zillion sub-one-second stock-market trades in a single day? And yet, here I am, buying things with dollars, and accepting them as pay for my work.

    10. Re:Fundementally flawed by Nursie · · Score: 1

      Awesome work!

      I hope all those that put money into the system to pay you are just as happy...

    11. Re:Fundementally flawed by Nursie · · Score: 1

      Apple actually did some work. Bitcoin is pure speculation. These are different things.

    12. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bitcoin is the equivalent of a nations currency that has been printed by individuals by permission.

      The critical difference is that no one has the power to issue new bitcoins. That fact that distinguishes it from fiat currencies - whether issued by governments or individuals - and puts it in the same class as gold and other materials which are in scarce supply.

      A better analogy would be to imagine that someone had discovered a new, rare mineral, and decided to start using it as a medium of exchange.

    13. Re:Fundementally flawed by julesh · · Score: 1

      Your GPU's do not constitute value

      No, but providing a service that allows a decentralized network to determine the validity of transactions while retaining useful properties like psuedonymity *does* constitute value. It just happens that the only way anyone has suggested of doing this is to use your GPU (or other highly parallel hardware) to perform some really tricky calculations. The only issue is that the BC network is designed on the basis that that value started as very high and has decreased over time (and will eventually reach zero), which is patently untrue.

    14. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Nobody will accept the fact that you are a bitcoin millionaire simply because you let a few unused computers run for a few months.

      Reality does not agree with you. Bitcoins worth about $9 million has changed hands in the last 30 days.

    15. Re:Fundementally flawed by Permutation+Citizen · · Score: 1

      The issue you point is a critical one.

      How Bitcoin was designed, it gave a huge reward to most early adopters. If Bitcoin is successful, early adopters will be very rich. That's a great idea to get the project launch and find early adopters.

      But to have success, it now needs late adopters, and they have no incentive to come. First, they need to pay the early adopter their huge reward. Then the system itself is still expensive to run, even if you don't mine and just do no transactions it takes lots of processing power and network bandwidth. And anyway, there is no network effect, even with all these early adopter you can't buy anything real with Bitcoin.

    16. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >simply because you let a few unused computers run for a few months.
      That's pretty much how Facebook and Google started

    17. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree, but remember all you really have to do is convice a million bitcoin users you're worth a dollar.

    18. Re:Fundementally flawed by TheBlackMan · · Score: 1

      I completely agree with most of people here - bitcoin is flawed concept and a complete failure.

      Therefore, everybody who wants to get rid of this heavy burden of having Bitcoins can send them to this address 16w7nVnj8mZoaoPxiQP3pAWiStSJo8DUqy so I will recycle them harmlessly.
      Don't let the Bitcoin issue burden you ! I will fix your problem in no time.

    19. Re:Fundementally flawed by heathen_01 · · Score: 1

      ... useful properties like psuedonymity *does* constitute value.

      I don't understand how this property works. As soon as you trade your bitcoin for a service/product your psuedonymity appears to dissapear.

    20. Re:Fundementally flawed by heathen_01 · · Score: 1

      The early adopters could pay the late adopters.

    21. Re:Fundementally flawed by brian0918 · · Score: 1
      Why is it that everyone who claims Bitcoin is flawed doesn't have the slightest clue how it works. It's probably because the Bitcoin system is so complicated.

      Your GPU's do not constitute value.

      Yes, they do. The process of mining bitcoins involves performing operations that make the bitcoin network more secure. Those operations are of value, and the user is paid in bitcoins for his work.

      Bitcoin is the equivalent of a nations currency that has been printed by individuals by permission.

      Wrong. It is the equivalent of a trading system that is independently validated by every other member of the system. People are neither "printing" (which does not add any value to the system, and only devalues the currency), nor are they doing it "by permission", nor is it equivalent to a "national currency", which is normally forced on the public and manipulated by the nation's government, and legally required to be accepted as payment for debt (i.e. "legal tender"). Bitcoin is none of that, which is why it is ultimately better for the free market, though unlikely to become rapidly popular, due to the government-granted monopoly that the Federal Reserve Note currently enjoys.

    22. Re:Fundementally flawed by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      How Bitcoin was designed, it gave a huge reward to most early adopters. If Bitcoin is successful, early adopters will be very rich. That's a great idea to get the project launch and find early adopters.

      *cough* Ponzi scheme *cough*

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    23. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Nobody will accept the fact that you are a bitcoin millionaire simply because you let a few unused computers run for a few months."

      Funny, though, that people do accept that we have real-money millionaires simply because they played a computer-game for a few months.

    24. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      jesus christ do you know anything about bitcoin? Everyone has to agree to the currency so you can't just go around printing it and expecting others to value it at anything.

      I'm not sure what you're trying to get at with GPU's do not consitute value. I'm puzzled even trying to think about what you're trying to imply.

    25. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually GPU's do have quite a lot of value. Since there are many places that use GPU's for processing. Like the LHC and @home projects. As they work to better mankind. Things like finding proteins that can be used in the medical industry. I really do not have time to list them all. Just google @home.

      You will be amazed that GPU's do happen to have a value. A value worth more than any metal to me!

    26. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No one? Yeah, tell that to the very real exchanges that convert your "GPU" time into actual currency for a given nation...

      Everyone's all miffed about how "flawed" bitcoin is because of "intrinsic" value. They are dolts. The VALUE is in the fact that I can transfer you money without having to have a bank account. The REAL value is in the fact that the cryptographic principals are used to create a distributed system where you're not beholden to a financial institution for monetary exchanges.

      Go ahead and "poo poo" it. That's fine. As long as the VERY REAL need to transfer value outside the cluster fuck that is todays banking system exists, systems such as bitcoin will exist. It's essentially an "in game currency" without the game.

      Think about this. I have no bank account. In 2003 my identity was stolen (via my wallet). Even though I immediately went to Wells Fargo and CLOSED my account, re-opened a new account, and got new checks, etc: Two weeks LATER There was an expensive charge on my OLD BANK account debit card. The one that was supposedly canceled / closed / terminated somehow still got linked to my new account. I can't afford to pay off the retarded amounts Wells Fargo's fuck up has cost them. Even though it's off my credit report now (over 7 years old), ALL OTHER BANKS refuse to give me an account due to the outstanding balance with Wells Fargo.

      With Bitcoin this isn't an issue. NO ONE can prevent you from having an account. NO ONE can prevent you from transferring value amongst peers -- This is the whole purpose of any banking or monetary system.

      All the info needed to steal your identity is on your debit or credit card... Think about that next time you hand one over to some underpaid wage slave at a restaurant.

      So long as the current monetary systems are VERY INSECURE, and engage in practices such as BLACK-LISTING customers when it's clearly unwarranted, and the desire exists for people to transfer value cheaply and securely Bitcoin will survive.

      It turns out that I DON'T care what the current value of Bitcoin is at any given moment. Unless its value drops or increases significantly in the time it takes me to convert transferred btc into my rechargeable Visa "gift" card or my Paypal or Google checkout accounts I WILL NEVER CARE.

      So long as the primary use case is one similar to my own: quickly transfer in then transfer out of btc (which IT IS see: Silk Road, etc), then transactions will be generated.

      My Bitcoin wallet could be stolen from my encrypted storage, and drained. Guess what? It can't be OVERDRAWN; Furthermore I can create a hundred new accounts the very next day.

      You talk about Value and fail to see the real VALUE. You talk about worth of other systems and ignore their WORTHLESSNESS in many regards.

      All you "Bitcoin worthers" can go screw yourselves. You wouldn't know value if you were wrongfully assigned a large negative sum of it without any form of redress!

      P.S. Pedantics, feel free to argue over exactly what a financial institution or bank is -- You missed the damn point, as always.

    27. Re:Fundementally flawed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Bitcoin is the equivalent of a nations currency that has been printed by individuals by permission."

      Then the bitcoin would be Inflatiionary if it was serving as a useful currency, i.e. commonly accepted as a form of payment. But clearly a currency needs a managing authority to match
      the aggregate value to to economic activity growth: e.g. If an economy grows 5%, then the money supply should grow roughly 5%. The problem in the US is that GDP is optimistically measured which results in overshooting on the money supply and the gambling madness on everything under the sun.

    28. Re:Fundementally flawed by julesh · · Score: 1

      I don't understand how this property works. As soon as you trade your bitcoin for a service/product your psuedonymity appears to dissapear.

      Yes & no. The only thing that can be tracked is the individual flow of coins. There's no way of tying two coins together and saying the same person owns both of them, unless they're both used in the same transaction. You can easily partition your coins so that you have two completely separate identitities, for example. Or you can trade coins with other users to confuse the transaction records (there are services that will do this for a small fee, so you pick up coins provided by a completely random network user, and they end up with your coins). There are some issues with stastical analysis, but in the end it is very difficult to tie down different transactions as being from the same person.

  33. Which Krugman? Dr. or Mr. ??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Krugman strikes me as a man with two personalities.

    There's "Dr." Krugman, the man that won awards for his work showing the importance of free trade. And then there's "Mr." Krugman, who is a democratic party partisan and has, over time, put forth views that are near opposite of Dr. on his NY Times column and blog.

    Sadly, in this column on gold and bitcoin, it is Mr. Krugman doing the talking. Dr, please come back, those of us that like reason and try to think outside of the current gangland Blood/Crip political spectrum miss you, and we're tired of Mr's claptrap.

    1. Re:Which Krugman? Dr. or Mr. ??? by durdur · · Score: 1

      You may want to have your economics unconnected to politics, but that is unrealistic. Economic theories can imply political actions, and political actions can alter how economies function.

  34. Keynes wasn't Keynesian by superwiz · · Score: 0

    So can we please stop calling neo-Marxists "Keynesian?" Keynes' theory predicted that expansion could be accomplished by government disposing of excess collections through spending. He never proposed or advocated deficit spending as a way to expand economy. Even Keynesian economics predicts that long-term deficit spending would cause a contraction.

    --
    Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    1. Re:Keynes wasn't Keynesian by Palpatine_li · · Score: 1

      Exactly! Krugman is just a Keynesian, not an economist like Keynes. It's just like Christians to Christ (the famous Gandhi quote). Plus, Krugman won his Nobel prize for what? Model building in macro( international trading, in fact), the voodooist field in an already voodoo study like economy.

    2. Re:Keynes wasn't Keynesian by samkass · · Score: 2

      Can we please stop re-naming economists you don't agree with "neo-Marxists" (or the more popular "socialist"). The question of deficit vs. excess spending is orthogonal to the effect the spending itself has on the economy. The point is where to apply the force-- at the bottom or the top. Reaganomics advocated extreme deficit spending while cutting the top earners' taxes in the theory that they'd create jobs. It didn't work, and he was forced to raise taxes again for several years in a row. (When they say this unemployment is "the worst since 1983" you know what they're talking about.) Anyway, the question of tax-and-spend (i.e. "liberal") versus borrow-and-spend (ie. "conservative") isn't really relevant here.

      --
      E pluribus unum
    3. Re:Keynes wasn't Keynesian by superwiz · · Score: 1

      The question of deficit vs. excess spending is orthogonal to the effect the spending itself has on the economy.

      That is absolutely categorically untrue.

      --
      Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    4. Re:Keynes wasn't Keynesian by superwiz · · Score: 2

      Can we please stop re-naming economists you don't agree with "neo-Marxists" (or the more popular "socialist")

      Ok. But can, please, please, still call everyone who is "Keynesian" by the proper name "neo-Marxist"? Or at least just plain "Marxist?" They do believe in the labor-driven theory of production. That's the basis of the Marxist view, so can we call them by the proper name? Even though I disagree with them? Or do we have to invent some name that would be less honest in order to make sure they are not laughed out of the room?

      --
      Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
    5. Re:Keynes wasn't Keynesian by Red+Flayer · · Score: 2

      They do believe in the labor-driven theory of production.

      No they don't. Stop making things up.

      That's the basis of the Marxist view, so can we call them by the proper name?

      Well, Islam, Judaism, and Muslims are all Abrahamic faiths. So should be able to call all Muslims Jews, since they share the same basis?

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    6. Re:Keynes wasn't Keynesian by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      I suggest you read Marx first, before calling people that don't fit your world view "Marxist", no?

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
  35. It's not the fact that it can be divided by alexander_686 · · Score: 2

    Let me recast Paul Krugman argument by using this 1930’s example:

    The Monetary Supply is fixed
            BitCoin: By design – 21 million is the max.
            1930: Currency is tied to gold, and no major gold strikes in the 1920s
    The demand for money increases.
            BitCoin: More people get interested
    1930: The economy grows in 1920s high productivity, population growth, move away from agrarian society, etc.
    Supply and Demand
            If the supply is fixed and the demand increases, the value of money goes up.

    Krugman point – If people perceive that money is going to be more valuable tomorrow then today – why would they spend it either on investments (think the practical kind – plant & equipment - not stocks) or consumption? One can make a good risk free investment by hoarding the currency. Which pulls more money out of the economy, which leads to a downward spiral.

    BitCoin is only going to work as a currency if people transact with it – which they are not.

    My Point – Deflation. Yeah, I know that in theory people should be o.k. with inflation – but their not. There is something hardware in our reptilian brains. Give a worker a 10% raise when inflation is 10% and they can work things out – and they are happy. Give a worker a 5% cut with 10% deflation and they can’t work things out. Nor can Harvard MBA students. There is something about seeing the number of dollars shrink – even if there value is increasing – which throws people. And – also – not many banks offer negative interest rates on loans.

    1. Re:It's not the fact that it can be divided by brillow · · Score: 1

      I get your point, limited supplies lead to hoarding. However, if you define hoarding as "spending very little" and the denominations of currency are discrete, then eventually this results in no spending. With bitcoin its just as easy and possible to spend 1 BTC as it is to spend 0.0000001 BTC. So you can hoard your bitcoins, and still spend very few of them.

      So yes, deflation may happen, but the floor is much lower than it is with normal currencies.

      Also, I am not, at the moment, convinced that most people are not spending bitcoins.

      Krugman gets his data from a second article:
      http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/38392/

      Which says:
      "According to bitcoinwatch.com, the best source of Bitcoin data, more than a million dollars' worth of bitcoins were traded on June 13."
      "By early August, less than half a million dollars in bitcoins were being used in transactions; even the currency's value had been cut in half."

      So they say the USD value of all bitcoin transactions (I am guessing per day) more than halved in this one month period. That shows that people are spending less. (note: they say transactions, which differs from trades. Transactions are when one entity gives bitcoins to another, theoretically in exchange for goods or service. This differs from trade volume, which is simply exchanging BTC for USD or whatever).

      If look today though at bitcoinwatch.com I see there were 6,476 transactions in the past 24 hours involving 394,474.39 BTC, and the current value of the BTC is ~$6.50 USD, which gives us ~$2.5 million USD in BTC traded in the past day at an avg of $386 per transaction.

      That seems like a lot per transaction, but without rawer data I can't say how much this differs from the median transaction size. Otherwise it looks like people are buying expensive things mostly, possibly drugs from The Silk Road.

      It's currently not apparent to me how to get all the historical data and look at trends in transaction volume, but it seems good to me (at least compared to the low numbers JAMES SUROWIECKI uses.

      The only caveat I can see is that we cannot know how many of these transactions are people moving money between different "wallets" they own (the bitcoin equivalent of an account) as the identity is anonymous. It could be the vast majority of these transactions is the result of people shuffling money from one hand or the other.

      Naturally, I am probably missing something.

    2. Re:It's not the fact that it can be divided by Eskarel · · Score: 1

      The basic issue with deflation isn't so much that we can't understand it, people could work it out even if they grumbled for a while. The issue with deflation is that it punishes debt far more harshly than inflation punishes savings and debt, at least in moderation, is far more important to economic growth than savings. Imagine the housing bubble bursting happening to your car loan, your student loans, your credit card loan, your business loan, essentially all your debt and you'll begin to imagine what any significant deflation would be like. If you have any kind of serious inflation the only remotely sane thing you can do is hold onto your money because spending it is a net loss, borrowing it results in negative equity, and lending to people who can't pay(due to negative equity) is not the best idea.

      Inflation on the other hand is really only bad for people who have no income stream which is to say essentially the self supporting elderly. Trying to bet on when you're going to die is a bet most people end up losing one way or the other anyway and there are better ways to deal with the problems of retirement than trying to deflate the currency.

    3. Re:It's not the fact that it can be divided by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      To answer your question, at least half of the total transactions will be people moving money between different addresses they own, because that is the way the system handles "change". A portion of the remainder will be people collecting newly-minted coins from mining pools, which until recently was a good proportion of the whole.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    4. Re:It's not the fact that it can be divided by virtualXTC · · Score: 1

      .... or you could just move to a gold AND silver AND copper standard and the problem would be solved. Or in the case of Bitcoin: Bitcoin, Bitcoin V2, Bitcoin V3, Butcoin ect... nothing is stopping anyone from creating another currency that is also resource restricted by computational power.....

    5. Re:It's not the fact that it can be divided by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  36. Re:Bitcoin by gregor-e · · Score: 1

    According to this profitability calculator with the current difficulty and market value, miners are now making a negative profit.

  37. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So ship the buyer an empty box, and use that tracking number.

  38. Re:Bitcoin by elbonia · · Score: 1

    While voltage may change the wiring still has a similar max wattage handling.

  39. It's Economics 101 by brainzach · · Score: 1

    Any mainstream economists will point out similar flaws with bit coin.

    The supply of Bitcoins can't keep up with the demand which leads to deflation and hoarding, which will stagnant the economic activity. Countries used to have similar problems when they were on the gold standard, which is why all modern economies have a fiat money system.

    But if you are really think the modern banking system is a scam, gold is a much better investment. Gold has thousands of years of tradition behind it and there will always be people who value it so the prices will be relatively more stable.

  40. Re:Bitcoin by zill · · Score: 3, Informative
    Just to add to that, searching your image on tinyeye leads to this page, which proves that you simply found the image online.

    A hilarious comment from the source shows how pathetic your trolling attempt is:

    Not to mention that the door hinges on the side away from the plug, so you have to unplug the door to open it.

  41. GDP-mania by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Krugman should recognize GDP for what it is, a convenient and available metric, but not an end goal.
    It is common to fixate on measures that are available, in particular in economics. But satisfaction and value are subjective and cannot be measured. Many things that are improvements in standards of living actually decrease GDP (leisure and social activities for example).

    Also, the fixation on GDP leads Krugman to despise hoarding, when it is clear that hoarding produces value for the hoarder (and produces value for the spender too, as the circulating dollars now have greater purchasing power).

  42. Re:Bitcoin by cforciea · · Score: 1

    Or ship a bitcoin wallet on a thumb drive?

  43. Re:Bitcoin by wordsnyc · · Score: 1

    If he were in the US, the DEA would have kicked in his door after a week.

    I agree, though, that he would make an excellent hedge fund manager; greedy, solipsistic and anti-social. Here's an idea: get together with your pals and sell derivatives based on your awesome income stream. You can lie about it -- nobody cares. You can bribe Moody's to give your crap AAA ratings. Then buy default insurance on your own crap. When your neighbors, landlord or the law pull the plug, collect!

    --
    Sent from the iPad I found in your car.
  44. Saving is bad? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't quite understand why saving is considered so evil in the United States. I guess it explains why the country is getting sucked into a debt vortex.

    How about we meet in the middle and develop a monetary system that features stable prices? Ooops, the Federal Reserve is supposed to do that as part of it's "dual mandate" yet fails miserably.

    1. Re:Saving is bad? by jcr · · Score: 1

      I don't quite understand why saving is considered so evil in the United States.

      It's only considered so by those who believe that inflation is a good thing. That is to say, bankers, apparatchiki, and ivory-tower cretins like Krugman.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
  45. Depression of 1920 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The question is, do we need to do *anything* to "get us out of a recession" - Here's the last big example where we did absolutely nothing on a governmental level to "stimulate" in any way, shape or form (only measures passed were tarriffs response to european tarriff, which of course exacerbated the situation)

    Ever hear of the depression of 1920? No? Thats because it was over very fast and followed by a period of sharp growth.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_of_1920%E2%80%9321

  46. Deflation isnt all bad by Kid_Korrupt · · Score: 0

    The problem with Krugman's argument is that he is taking the price increase in bitcoins due to massive speculation and applying it to a case of deflation that occurs when there is a decrease in the ratio of gold to goods in an economy. They are two separate things and no conclusions can be drawn from one and applied to the other, especially if you are not going to discuss the elasticity between present and future consumption. The problem with the Keynesian critiques of deflationary currencies is that they look for the most extreme cases of deflation and assume that all deflation will set off a deflationary spiral.

    The argument that Krugman is making is that because people hoard money when deflation is 50% or more then its obvious they will completely hoard all their money when its 2%-3%. Its not a fair comparison at all and assumes an unreasonably high rate of intertemporal consumption elasticity. To believe this would mean that people are not willing to pay the 2% opportunity cost of consuming in the present which is almost identical to saying that people will not substitute future consumption for present consumption they face an opportunity cost of 2% or more, ie they would not take out a loan if the interest they are paying is 2% or more. Obviously no one is going to use a credit card that charges 50% but I am pretty sure that a 2% charge on present consumption is not going to stop a lot of people from thinking twice about consuming in the present.

    What Krugman is really critiquing is that a deflationary currency is going to prevent people from being incentivized to drastically reduce their savings rate. As we can see in this quote: "What we want from a monetary system isn’t to make people holding money rich; we want it to facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich."

    We dont want hoarders (aka savers) from making risk free profits? Why not? When people pull their money out of the economy it doesnt prevent others from making transactions as long as the currency is divisible, which is completely effortless with bitcoin and only faces a modest cost under the gold standard. Luckily for us these evil hoarders will eventually dis-hoard their money in retirement and provide an even flow of savings and consumption over their lifetime. What Krugman wants is for our current generation to get the benefits of past savings while at the same time preventing future generations from having the same priviledge that we do. It works for a while and has been in operation for the past 20 years but we are quickly coming to a period in time when there will be no more dis-hoarding of savings and no hoarding to divert into present consumption. The shell game that Krugman constantly promotes on his blog is quickly coming to an end and we are soon going to have to figure out how to run an economy through a deflationary recession without recourse to inflation or borrowing.

    In addition it has been shown empirically that times of mild deflation have not been the catastrophe that Krugman claims they would be. See: Milton Friedman's Monetary History of the United States.

  47. so the only way to make bank is to not pay for pow by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 2

    so the only way to make bank is to not pay for power?

  48. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I once bought an item on eBay and the buyer sent me the wrong product. The listing clearly said it was for an audio CD and I got a key chain instead. When I filed a dispute with PayPal, they didn't do anything because there was a tracking number.

    So yeah, sending an empty box just for the tracking number will probably get the disputes closed (fraudulent or not).

  49. You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

    See the Cross of Gold speech by William Jennings Bryan. Deflationary currencies facilitate concentration of wealth in fewer pockets.

  50. Bitcoin unmercifully Slash-dotted by retroworks · · Score: 1

    Six days out of seven, I agree with the vengency and ridicule of /. commentary on bitcoin. But I find that most of the ridicule is automatic, and automatic criticism of gold is better than knee-jerk opine of bitcoin. Knowing how gold mining works (14/15 USA Superfund sites), I know how randomly awful digging into rain-forested-mines can be. If this "derivative" of bitcoin, pinned to other currencies, weens humans off the tit of OK Tedi Mining, it's a derivative which at least beats the Digger. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ok_Tedi_environmental_disaster

    --
    Gently reply
  51. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hopefully your neighbors will report you to your landlord so he can stop your unauthorized use of electricity you're not paying for.

  52. Re:Bitcoin by residieu · · Score: 1

    Then your neighbors aren't just being "jerks" for unplugging your rig. They're seeing you abusing the system and putting a stop to it. They need to start taking more permanent steps.

  53. Krugman still a moron, film at 11. by jcr · · Score: 2

    Krugman once again demonstrates the Keynesian confusion about the role of savings in the economy. A miser is a good neighbor: instead of consuming all that he could consume in exchange for his production, he holds onto his money, thus making everyone else's money buy more in the market. The profligate spender who consumes all he earns, and the borrows more and consumes all of that (like the federal government) is the one to despise.

    -jcr

    --
    The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    1. Re:Krugman still a moron, film at 11. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That profligate spending pays my salary and that of most everybody else in town you insensitive clod! Where does income come from? Production doesn't cause income. Spending causes income.

    2. Re:Krugman still a moron, film at 11. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The choice isn't between stuffing money under bed or buying goods and services.

      The choice is between stuffing your leftover money under the bed once you have all you need, or lending your unused money via investments to other people so that they can make money too.

      Putting money into a bank account for the interest is not profligate spending. Buying shares is not profligate spending.

      In a deflationary environment, there's a reduced incentive to invest in any new business, and the only new business ideas that could ever get funding by rational investors are the ones that are massively, wildly profitable right from the start. It completely eliminates the possibility of getting a loan to start up a small business doing something profitable, but not quite as profitable as just sitting on some idle money.

    3. Re:Krugman still a moron, film at 11. by rbrander · · Score: 1

      Yeah, those bastards, paving roads and building bridges and schools.

      Actually, if you change "government" to "the military" a lot more people would agree with you. That is one kind of spending that is just money wasted at best; at worst, they actually use those weapons, probably blowing up stuff that used to have value.

      The "miser is a good neighbour" theory can be right or wrong, depending on what you mean by "not spending". Money stuffed under the bed is like a backhoe sitting idle (literally - it represents a backhoe sitting idle). Money put in a bank is money somebody can borrow to hire a backhoe. Whether you spend it yourself or loan it out to somebody to spend, is has to be SPENT somehow, to galvanize human beings to do work and produce value. The mistake is to imagine money IS value and is valuable to society sitting there. Like that backhoe, it is ONLY useful when in motion.

    4. Re:Krugman still a moron, film at 11. by sonicmerlin · · Score: 1

      Right, because all the corporations banks, and consumers saving money and paying down debt has done wonders for our current economy. Once again idiots with nary an intelligent thought act superior to those who actually understand how a modern, developed economy works.

    5. Re:Krugman still a moron, film at 11. by jcr · · Score: 1

      Yeah, those bastards, paving roads and building bridges and schools.

      Jesus, not that stupid canard again.

      It does not follow that because government does something, that it can't happen otherwise. Read and learn.

      We'd have a far better and cheaper transportation infrastructure if what to build, where to build it, and how much to spend was left to the market to decide. Bridges to nowhere aren't profitable.

      As for schools, we sure as hell aren't getting what we pay for.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    6. Re:Krugman still a moron, film at 11. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, those bastards, paving roads and building bridges and schools.

      Jesus, not that stupid canard again.

      It does not follow that because government does something, that it can't happen otherwise. Read and learn.

      Is there a word for anti-learning? I scanned it a bit. I fear that I'd get stupider if I tried to read every word. From the foreword on, it appears to be nothing more than typical libertarian bullshit.

      We'd have a far better and cheaper transportation infrastructure if what to build, where to build it, and how much to spend was left to the market to decide.

      Prove it.

      No, I don't accept the endless stream of disingenuous special pleading in Mr. Walter Blockhead's ebook. Prove It. Find a place where the primary infrastructure such as roads is built mainly by private enterprise and show that it's unquestionably better than the conventional method of getting roads built.

      If you can't prove it, then fuck off. Stop pretending that libertarianism is the only possible solution to the world's problems if you don't actually know whether it is. Bullshit like the ebook you linked is pretty offensive -- I just looked at it again to make sure I'm not missing some erudition, and found the bit where he talks about competition, and now I'm pretty pissed off that you wasted my time by linking such trite crap.

      See, I skimmed to the bit where even Mr. Blockhead tries to deal with the fatal flaw: free markets require (among other things) lots of competitors if they're going to provide semi-optimal allocation of resources, and there is no way to have lots of competitors in the market for a road (or set of roads) to any given destination. So what does he do? He just tries to handwave it away. Says, paraphrasing, "oh, you don't have to have PERFECT free market conditions for a market to work", and then proceeds to jizz some more about how great it would be if roads were built by free markets. The fucktard. In the first place, you're going to be lucky if lots of important roads could have even two competitors, and ideal free markets are about Many-with-a-capital-M competitors, not one-to-two, three at the most. In the second place, the effectiveness of free markets is a spectrum. Markets which are inherently far, far away from ideal free market conditions (such as roads) are simply not going to work very efficiently. If all 3 of us have done our homework on basic econ 101, then he knows it, you know it, and I know it. But he just glosses over this as if it's not a serious problem with his assertion that the FWEE MARKET must be able to do a better job than the government at building and maintaining roads.

      Then again, that's a mental blindness which is practically required to be a full-blown libertarian, so I shouldn't be surprised. Free market fundamentalists are never going to be pleased to admit that there are any circumstances where markets are less than perfect.

  54. Re:You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of g by digsbo · · Score: 1

    Inflationary currencies guarantee concentration of wealth in the pockets of the Bankers. Seehttp://mises.org/resources/614/Mystery-of-Banking-The Deflation like you're talking about only occurs after the inevitable monetary contraction which follows cascading debt defaults.

  55. Re:Bitcoin by RoFLKOPTr · · Score: 1

    While voltage may change the wiring still has a similar max wattage handling.

    The wiring, outlets, and circuit has maximum current rating, not wattage. The higher the voltage you put through the wires, the more wattage they can handle because you get more power with the same amount of current.

    But even if it's 240V at 7.2kW, that's still 30A which I highly doubt a hallway circuit would be rated for.

  56. intrinsic value of gold by currently_awake · · Score: 1

    Wiring to connect silicon wafers to the chip leads, radiation shielding on spacecraft, super thin metal foil, gold plating on cards/pins, super low resistance wire.

  57. Re:Bitcoin by Agent+ME · · Score: 1

    There are mature bitcoin exchanges like Mt Gox where other users can't scam you.

  58. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    A hilarious comment from the source shows how pathetic your trolling attempt is:

    I wouldn't call it pathetic. Yes he was trolling, but I still found his comments funny.

  59. we already have an "oil standard". petrodollar by unity · · Score: 1
    we already have an "oil standard". it is called the US petrodollar.
    this is a good read:
    The End of Dollar Hegemony

    excerpt:

    Realizing the world was embarking on something new and mind-boggling, elite money managers, with especially strong support from U.S. authorities, struck an agreement with OPEC to price oil in U.S. dollars exclusively for all worldwide transactions. This gave the dollar a special place among world currencies and in essence “backed” the dollar with oil. In return, the U.S. promised to protect the various oil-rich kingdoms in the Persian Gulf against threat of invasion or domestic coup. This arrangement helped ignite the radical Islamic movement among those who resented our influence in the region. The arrangement gave the dollar artificial strength, with tremendous financial benefits for the United States. It allowed us to export our monetary inflation by buying oil and other goods at a great discount as dollar influence flourished.

  60. Re:Bitcoin by elbonia · · Score: 0
    All wires have a maximum wattage rating since their gauge controls their resistance which causes heat. If voltage is increased the amperage must be decreased. For example you can easily run 240 volts at 10 amps over 12 gauge wire but the wire would never be able to handle 2400V at 10 amps. From my understanding part of the reasoning to use 240V was that a smaller cheaper wire could be used than the ones used in the USA and Canada.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_wire_gauge

  61. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The thing TANSTAAFL ignores is that things get cheaper thanks to productivity increases made possible by technology, like computing power. Why shouldn't we reach the limit of free? In fact you can get food for free from food banks or with food stamps. As for energy, dark energy (73% of the universe!) is being produced and current models of physics can't explain where it comes from...

  62. Re:You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of g by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

    William Jennings Bryan is a perfect example of most "populists". He advocated an approach to government that involved people like him making decisions for people like you and me (rather than leaving us with the freedom to make the decisions that we wanted to make).

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  63. Jobs and Sales by BrianMarshall · · Score: 1

    This works and is how the US got out of the great depression with help from the New Deal and WW2.

    It also helped to have a huge industrial base that wasn't being bombed to bits - jobs for everyone (in the military and in industry) and a lot of customers.

    --
    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro" -- HST
  64. That which is seen, and that which is unseen... by benjamindees · · Score: 1

    Sorry but in this case the link is immediate. You just don't recognize it. And the results are certainly not trivial. The result of money printing since 2008, even without it being in circulation, is that we avoided the rational outcome of a couple of big banks going under due to their risky mortgage lending, the dimwits who invested in flipping houses on margin and buying houses they couldn't afford having to lose said houses, the price of housing falling, and everyone else's standard of living rising as a result. What we got instead was everyone else's standard of living falling as savers are forced to bail out bankrupt banks and dimwit house-flippers.

    Money sitting in a bank's vault directly determines the amount of real assets in the real world that that bank is able to control. This entire "money printing doesn't affect anything if it sits in banks" talking-point is a total bullshit lie.

    --
    "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    1. Re:That which is seen, and that which is unseen... by roman_mir · · Score: 1

      My take on HFT and how the complete misunderstanding of economics and inflation and the role of government prevents people from understanding the underlying reasons for the problem that HFT is becoming.

  65. Means to Store Wealth by BrianMarshall · · Score: 1

    People have wanted gold for thousands of years and that is not likely to change.. A lot of the intrinsic value of gold is a means to store wealth. There are problems with this, but there are problems with any way of storing wealth.

    --
    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro" -- HST
  66. Re:Bitcoin by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

    Regardless of whether we may reach the economy of abundance through technological progress eventually (which I think we will), TANSTAAFL is the reality today, and what GP is doing amounts to abusing (=stealing) a common resource for his own private gains.

  67. It's a pyramid scheme by dbIII · · Score: 1

    It's a pyramid scheme - do you really think the participents that want the advantage of early adoption in the pyramid really care about the morality of theft?
    The model is artificial inflation of value of a virtual ponzi and the hope that later marks will swap real goods of dramaticly greater value for the virutal ponzis, giving those involved early in the scam an advantage when they buy out of a scheme that is nothing but a drain on resources and currency.
    It's got cool geeky elements to catch the interest of the marks but the technology is really just window dressing on an age old scam. Bitcoin is a really cool concept but becomes just another form of pointless low grade evil once it gets implemented in reality.

  68. Re:Bitcoin by BKX · · Score: 2

    Nope, not quite right (except the part about higher voltages needing less thick wires.). How thick a wire must be to handle a given load depends mainly on amperage. Since this is a heat dissipation issue, where you put the wire also matters: in a wall means less heat dissipation than outdoor use which means a thicker gauge. Voltage means nothing. The only thing that voltage matters for is insulation. The higher the voltage, the better able electricity is at jumping gaps in the circuit, and so you need thicker insulation to prevent this. To give you an example, in my brother's car, one of his amplifiers uses 6AWG wiring, and runs at 60A at 12V. An overhead transmission line that uses 6AWG aluminum wire will typically carry 69kV with a maximum capacity of something like 300A. The reason it can use higher amps is because of the cooling effect of having the wire exposed to air and not near anything, and that we have increased safety tolerances for wires in areas where humans are likely to be present (buildings, cars, etc.). The insulation difference is massive. The car wiring's insulation is like 1mm plastic, whereas the transmission line uses literally meters of air between the wires and ceramic insulating suspenders that are several feet tall.

    To give another example, let's take house wiring. If I have a 20A 120V circuit, I'll need to use 12AWG wire. If I have a 20A 208V circuit, I'll need to use 12AWG wire. If I have a 20A 240V circuit, again, I'll need to use 12AWG. Now you might be tempted to say, "But, there are three wire in the 208V and 240V circuits." But then I'll remind you that all the electricity, no matter the configuration*, flows back through the neutral.

    * Yes, I know that's simplistic and 3-phase is even weirder and 208V is the potential between the hots and we don't touch the neutral with 208V, but it doesn't really affect my point, so fuck it.

  69. Non-car analogy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    RL chicks have intriguing potential as a porn substitute, much like how sleep has intriguing potential as a caffeine substitute.

    1. Re:Non-car analogy by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      RL chicks have intriguing potential as a porn substitute

      Hm, that's intriguing. How many gigabytes is each one worth? (let's take full HD, for an apples-to-apples comparison)

  70. Please tell me that was sarcasm by Paul1969 · · Score: 1

    Your idea of "economics" has no relevance to what happens in actual economies.

  71. Re:Bitcoin by goombah99 · · Score: 1

    That Made me laugh out loud.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
  72. Krugman's arguemet is flawed. by virtualXTC · · Score: 1
    I'd argue that while all of Krugman's comments are valid given these first few months of data around Bitcoin, they won't be valid on the whole.

    The initial bit-coin spike was mostly an artifact of it's promise for anonymous transactions. Anonymity caused sites like the silkroad to appear, as the value of anonymous transactions began to become apparent, the demand for bitcoins began to rise rapidly enough that speculators decided to get involved. Tack on a few mainstream news articles and the lack of other resource based options at a time when most of the worlds economies are printing money to pay off debts, and people who wouldn't otherwise be as speculative become so.

    Despite the conclusions one might draw from Krugman's article, the number of Bitcoins is actually designed to inflate relative to the output of society (based on the relative amount of available processing power) unlike traditional resource backed currencies. Thus, the current boom and horde should not be attributed to a failure of the Bitcoin currency, but instead a failure of confidence in the fiat model. For instance, imagine you are an Argentinean during their finical collapse. Now imagine there being a small and limited amount of stable US dollars available to convert your hyper-inflating Argentinian currency into. One can reasonably assume we would see exactly the same effect with dollars as we do in bit-coins if more dollars are not created out of thin air.

    Realistically, current monetary policy has us print more dollars as demand increases in order to stabilize prices. This works until the stressed market stabilizes again and people let go of their dollar holdings to go back to their native currency thereby creating inflation. All said, it's probably the lesser of two evils, which is why I would argue that another bitcoin like currency could be the appropriate way to buffer the demand. Yet it seems that the current instance of bitcoin hyper-valuation is likely only a blip and will continue for a short period of time relative to the current world economic decline. Further, there are already signs that the speculation and volatility is beginning to end: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25

    In summary, the point I'm trying to make here is 2 fold. First, if we all had access to a stable currency (like bitcoin), there would not be any incentive to horde bit-coins. Second, if the appropriate response to overwhelming demand for a currency is to make more of it, then there is actually a way to create more bitcoin like currency. Yet since more currency isn't actually necessarily as no one currently trades exclusively in bitcoin, and because the rest of the world is working with a fiat system, the hyper-valuation of the currency is to be expected, but cannot be pointed to as a failing of the bitcoin system.

    (Also, it's interesting to not that most sites that take bicoin haven't been chaining their prices to match the hyper inflation, which is why I refuse to use the term deflation in terms of the bit coin market.)

    -JHF

    1. Re:Krugman's arguemet is flawed. by julesh · · Score: 1

      the number of Bitcoins is actually designed to inflate relative to the output of society (based on the relative amount of available processing power) unlike traditional resource backed currencies

      Erm... you seem to have misread the details of how bitcoin works. First of all, the amount of processing needed to mine a block of coins is automatically scaled relative to the amount of processing that is thrown at it: when the network detects that the amount of time it takes to produce a block has dipped below a threshold value, an extra bit of required output is added, so twice as much processing is needed for subsequent blocks. Secondly, the number of coins produced in each block is decaying exponentially such that only about 2^31 (IIRC) coins will ever be produced. So bitcoin output is designed to steadily deflate over time, and is not linked to any economic activity.

  73. What Keynesian? He's American! by syockit · · Score: 1

    I've checked with Wikipedia too, he's born in NY and nationality is listed as United States. Why are you saying he's Keynesian? Did you confuse it with Obama's biography?

    --
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    1. Re:What Keynesian? He's American! by margeman2k3 · · Score: 1

      I can't tell if you're serious or trying (key word) to be funny, but just in case...

      Keynesian Economics

    2. Re:What Keynesian? He's American! by syockit · · Score: 1

      Oh my bad. I suppose the Keynes' surname has its root in the African country?

      --
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  74. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If you treat the wire as a resistor, yes, a certain "wattage" applies, per unit length (since if the wire runs twice as far, it has twice as much space to dump heat into the wall). But the voltage across it has nothing (well, little) to do with the nameplate voltage, and if you look at the linear variation of resistance with length, and a W/m rating, it reduces to a fixed current for a given wire gauge.

    The wires are in series, so they see the same current as the load; they are (ordinarily) a small fraction of the load, so they see small voltages.
    e.g. in a 240V system:
    *Hot
    wire 1V
    Load 238V
    wire 1V
    *Neutral

    At the same current (= half the power, total) in a 120V system, it would be:
    *Hot
    wire 1V
    Load 118V
    wire 1V
    *Neutral

    Same gauge of wire, same current = same heat dissipation. Of course, this means you typically see smaller wires and lower current limits in a 240V system, since a given appliance needs half the current, and you can then afford 4x the resistance for the same heating.

    Of course, if the wires are long enough, the voltage drop becomes significant, and either the system draws less current (e.g. an incandescent bulb), or more current (e.g. a motor driving a load with constant power) -- in either case, heating in the wires remains acceptable iff the current remains below the appropriate rating.

  75. Re:You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of g by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

    The Deflation like you're talking about only occurs after the inevitable monetary contraction which follows cascading debt defaults.

    No, that's the only supply-side cause of deflation. There is also deflation caused by growth concomitant with a steady money supply (or a money supply growing slower than economic activity).

    In addition, there is deflation caused by a reduction in circulating money supply (decreased money velocity) caused by hoarding. This particular form of deflation is dangerous, because hoarding results in greater deflation, resulting in even more hoarding... you get the picture. A deflationary spiral that ends up contracting the economy.

    --
    "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
  76. Austrian School Is Not Scientific by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Anyone wanting to save themselves some trouble when evaluating the Austrian School of Economics should research its epistemology (I wish I had, before wasting hundreds of hours reading that tripe). Its founders categorically discount empirical data in favour or arguments made from first principles. They're basically philosophers, which is fine, but highly suspect in the world of science, as Aristotle showed when he wrote about physics. Despite being a genius, he assumed that heavier weights would fall faster. He never bothered to verify his assertion. His argument was logically sound, but his assumptions were flawed (in this case, that mass is proportional to acceleration -- they're inversely proportional -- F=ma -- Thanks, Newton!).

    The Austrians state that economic activity is too complex to be empirically studied. They prefer to choose axioms that sound reasonable, and derive predictions from them. It's like doing math without bothering to go to the lab.

    I'll never understand how they get so much play on /., given the science/tech orientation of the site, but then again pure science articles have been neglected more than usual over the past 8 years or so.

    Shame, really.

  77. Re:Bitcoin by mwvdlee · · Score: 1

    Please remind me again; what is the value of a Bitcoin?
    I know people are willing to pay real money for it, but what value does it actually represent?
    The CPU mining; does it generate something of value?

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  78. Re:Bitcoin by mwvdlee · · Score: 1

    If it's for all people to use, you can't complain if somebody unplugs your cable to use it for their own appliances.
    Usually these buildings have rules regarding the use of shared resources; most likely being allowed to keep it plugged in all the time to power stuff inside your house isn't one of them.

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  79. Krugman's worldview is flawed. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In Paul "Fake Alien Invasion Would End Economic Slump" Krugman's Keynesian world the fact that the technology sector is hyper deflationary (prices for the same thing falls constantly) should make it a tremendous drain on our economy, nobody would ever buy a computer because a better one is going to come out later for less money. You can't watch cat videos by staring at dollar bills. Because value and utility isn't considered, only how well the hedges are doing we get things like cash for clunkers. Here's a plan, let's borrow money from the Chinese to pay people for their old computers if they buy a new one, then we will destroy the old computers. Dell and by extension America wins. Right?

  80. There's time to stash and time to cash by rippeltippel · · Score: 1

    Many of you compared BitCoins to national currencies, but they are not. This is quite an important factor: at the moment people can afford to "stash" bitcoins because there's no real need to spend them: we still rely on national currencies for buying most of what we need.

    However, the fact that it's getting more and more difficult to mine them also means that the 21M limit is getting closer. Once reached, the impossibility to mine new bitcoins will inevitable affect their value and I'm quite confident that bitcoin trades will rapidly increase, as that will be the main way to "earn" bitcoins (vs exchanging them for other currencies).

    Honestly I think that having an exchange market has been a bad idea, as well as making bitcoins to last forever. If they'd been granted a maximum lifetime, people would have been forced to trade them as quickly as possible. What happened instead is that many guys mined bitcoins just to have a try, and will never use their stash, so those bitcoins are lost forever.

  81. Pay me taxes in bitcoins by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How's that for an incentive to spend the coins: Everyone has to pay me taxes (or else goes to jail) and I only accept bitcoins.
    And I know where you live and where your kids go to school...

  82. Wisdom follows, pay attention! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Gold has internal value because it encompasses the incredibly large amounts of energy ancient exploding supernova stars spent creating it. Without expending similarly huge amounts of energy, gold cannot be created (i.e. reciting alchemical matras does not work) and that gives safety to investment gold owners. Nor can you create gold or platinum out of tin air via confidence scam or faking SSL certs.

    In contrast, Bitcoin is essentially an alchemical mantra: people make their computers recite variable strings over and over billions of times and manipulate them according to complex methodology, hoping gold will come out of it in the end. One would hope people have gotten smarter than that in the 400 years that lapsed since Emperor Rudolf wasted his life on alchemical ventures in his Prague castle.

    Futhermore, if you trust your wealth on an algorythm that can be written on the back of a napkin, rather than a star 1000x more energetic than our Sun, then you are plain stupid and deserve to be laughed at when NSA nixes the algorythm and discarded useless bitcoins are collected by brooms on the streets. Even paper money has more value, because those are backed by a massive entity, e.g. countires have government, military, police, industry, agriculture. It is not something that can fall in a day, while algorythms are mobile (as in women).

  83. Subjective and Objective Inflation by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

    Been to Walmart lately? Everything except tech is going up. The government is suppressing the official inflation figures with a lot of smoke and mirrors but for an ordinary person wages are pretty flat and the price of everything is going up.

    You're labeled a troll, who knows if fairly or unfairly, but for you and for others who come across this I would just like to mention that the subjective perception of inflation is still subject of research.

    At least one group of economists (sorry, I don't have the link handy) is trying to address exactly what you're saying. The disconnect between official CPIs and what people perceive exists in many countries, at the same time as independent economists confirm official CPI computations, so to believe in government conspiracies everywhere is at least a bit crazy.

    So they tried to figure out why individual perception is different. The summary of their result was something like: CPIs are computed to represent people's spending in an objective way, but in people's perceptions, some classes of goods have a much higher impact on how they feel about the price level. Since inflation is never equal across the board (there are always some classes of goods whose price increase is higher, and others whose price increase is significantly lower than average), the individual perception can become distorted depending on which classes of goods have particularly strong price increases.

  84. Depressions are linked to Government Surplus by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

    Well how many recessions have been caused from over extension of debt? Sounds like your theory is missing some sample data.

    The sample data strongly suggests that it is in fact government surpluses that cause depressions. I quote from here:

    Since 1776 there have been exactly seven periods of substantial budget surpluses and significant reduction of the debt. From 1817 to 1821 the national debt fell by 29 percent; from 1823 to 1836 it was eliminated (Jackson’s efforts); from 1852 to 1857 it fell by 59 percent, from 1867 to 1873 by 27 percent, from 1880 to 1893 by more than 50 percent, and from 1920 to 1930 by about a third. Of course, the last time we ran a budget surplus was during the Clinton years. (...)

    3. The United States has also experienced six periods of depression. The depressions began in 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893, and 1929. (Do you see any pattern? Take a look at the dates listed above.) With the exception of the Clinton surpluses, every significant reduction of the outstanding debt has been followed by a depression, and every depression has been preceded by significant debt reduction. (...)

    Obviously, correlation does not imply causation, but if data as strong and suggestive as this doesn't at least make you stop and think and reexamine the conventional wisdom of the austerity fanatics, then you aren't being rational or reasonable, you're simply being a religious zealot.

    1. Re:Depressions are linked to Government Surplus by mwasham · · Score: 1

      "With the exception of the Clinton surpluses" Why exclude Clinton's surplus? We had a pretty severe recession at the end of the Clinton term which fits your pattern perfectly. Oh, I know why. It's because although it fits an extreme high level correlation it isn't true because you know there was a bubble at the time that was popped. Recessions are caused by booms and busts Keynesian style. The current one was caused by government / bank collaboration in the housing industry and it is being prolonged by that same monopoly intervening in the free market. Considering the US has done the exact OPPOSITE of austerity since 2008 I don't know how you can continue to argue that austerity is even related here.

    2. Re:Depressions are linked to Government Surplus by bjourne · · Score: 1

      That's a stupid as saying rain is caused by sunshine since every rainy day is preceeded by a sunny one!

    3. Re:Depressions are linked to Government Surplus by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

      Exactly, the recession after Clinton's surpluses fits the pattern perfectly, and I would include it. The reason that Wray excludes the Clinton surpluses is that they weren't followed by a depression, but "only" by a recession. Even the current mess we're in is not considered to be a depression by economists (for whatever reason, don't ask me why). Wray has more to write on the topic on the page that I linked to.

    4. Re:Depressions are linked to Government Surplus by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

      The irony is, of course, that rain is caused by sunshine. Sunshine is what causes water to evaporate, which is a prerequisite for rain. Of course, nobody is suggesting to abolish sunshine, because sunshine has plenty of inherent benefits. And so does rain, by the way. So your analogy is pretty flawed, because neither depressions nor government surpluses have any inherent benefits (for a monetarily sovereign government, that is).

      To go back on the correlation vs. causality issue though, there is a solid causal theory for how government surpluses create depressions based on sectoral balances. The government surpluses have the effect of squeezing cash out of the private sector, causing spending and aggregate demand to collapse, which is what leads to the depression.

      Given that there is a plausible theory of cause and effect and a pretty strong empirical observation, you'd be a fool not to consider the possibility that the government surpluses really did cause the depressions. In any case, you'd have to come up with a better rebuttal.

    5. Re:Depressions are linked to Government Surplus by mwasham · · Score: 1

      The point is although it fits your pattern we KNOW that the pattern is wrong because the recession was not caused by government surplus it was caused by a bust in bogus tech stocks. The government surplus was caused by the preceding boom which is why there is a pattern (all the taxes from the capital gains in the dot com bubble is why there was a surplus). It would better to understand WHY there is a boom and bust cycle instead of blindly concluding that governments should go into massive debt to keep the economy running. In the current recession/depression why was there a housing boom? Why were interest rates so low yet the risk so high? It's called government and bank intervention into the free market and it's NASTY when it crashes. The idea that government should inflate the money supply to help the economy is ludicrous. From a moral perspective alone it is wrong. When money printing/inflation raises gas prices to $3.90/4 gallon who does that hurt? The rich? The upper middle class? No - the poor. Keynesian economics is nothing more than an excuse for the banking and government class to take money from the people with the least power and control.

    6. Re:Depressions are linked to Government Surplus by s73v3r · · Score: 1

      Considering the US has done the exact OPPOSITE of austerity since 2008 I don't know how you can continue to argue that austerity is even related here.

      Because we're trying to do it now, in one of the stupidest possible moves during an economic downturn.

    7. Re:Depressions are linked to Government Surplus by mwasham · · Score: 1

      Austerity will help in the long run. In the short run they need to: A) Get rid of ObamaCare B) Get rid of all of the new EPA Rules C) Get rid of Sarbanes Oxley D) Vow to never ever ever bail out or grant favortism to any company EVER. E) Simplify the tax code (flat tax would be great) F) Get rid of or severely curtail the Federal Reserve

    8. Re:Depressions are linked to Government Surplus by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I can't find a second source for your "budget surpluses" claim. However, the six periods of depression are significant historical dates that explain why the United States entered a depression. Most of those events are not tied to budget surpluses from previous years but due to outside influences.

      If we're looking at only six dates over 220+ years, I'm going to call "post hoc ergo propter hoc" on your Surplus->Depression link.

      See here for better reasons on the recessions: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

    9. Re:Depressions are linked to Government Surplus by Nicolai+Haehnle · · Score: 1

      If we're looking at only six dates over 220+ years, I'm going to call "post hoc ergo propter hoc" on your Surplus->Depression link.

      See here for better reasons on the recessions: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

      You do realize that this page does not actually list reasons for most of those recessions, right? I mean, sure, they write things like:

      Failure of the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company burst a European speculative bubble in United States' railroads and caused a loss of confidence in American banks. (...)

      But why did that Company fail in the first place? Can you really say that that was the initial cause? That's like saying the current mess was caused by the failure of Lehman Brothers. Maybe people in 150 years will write that, but even though there is disagreement about what the actual causes are, there is pretty much a consensus that the failure of Lehman Brothers was not a cause, but a symptom of the problem.

      Of course, you are right in saying that the temporal coincidence does not imply causation - I wrote as much myself. But it is very suggestive that there is some relationship. An example of such a relationship is that both the GFC and the Clinton surpluses can be attributed to an over-leveraging of the private sector (where that over-leveraging came from is another debate, of course).

  85. Agreed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    People should not be free to hoard the money they earn!

    People should be told what to do with their money, because they are not prepared to spend it, only government(and Krugman) can.

    Next time you want to hold your money, think twice, Krugman is looking and could denounce you to the authorities for not being a good citizen.

    Now, stop reading slashdot and continue working, or our leaders wont love you.

  86. Devaluing the currency by creating more debt? by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    "The over extension of debt can be corrected by devaluing the the currency."

    Yay! World War 3 Here we come!

    Think about what you are saying.
     

    --
    Deleted
  87. Alien Attacks by cnxsoft · · Score: 1

    Krugman is a mad man, he said that faking an alien invasion would revive the economy, as we would produce a massive amount of weapons to protect ourselves against the invasion.

  88. Credit's the point by Colin+Smith · · Score: 1

    Booms and crashes are caused by credit expansion and contraction. Not the underlying money.

     

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    Deleted
  89. Re:Bitcoin by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    Thats why you transfer the bitcoins not to the buyers address but to a new created own address.

    Save the wallet file of that one on a floppy disk and mail that with UPS.

    That way you can hope the floppy gets lost ;D or destroyed and you still have a copy of the sent wallet file.

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  90. Intrinsic Value by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    > The essence of intrinsic value is that you can estimate it in a vacuum for a specific asset, without any information on how the market is pricing other assets

    and

    > Only assets that are expected to generate cash flows can have intrinsic values.

    from Aswath Damodaran who, literally, wrote the book on valuation.
    Therefore, neither gold nor oil have an intrinsic value because a specific quantity of either does not generate a cash flow. An asset that can be used as capital (in production) would have an intrinsic value.
    http://www.stern.nyu.edu/experience-stern/faculty-research/UAT_025578

  91. It's already shit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Its main advantage was obviously to traffic illegal goods (Silkroad). The other advantages are only theoretical in nature and so entangled in bias that it's best stepping away and getting back to looking at the main advantage. As far as that goes, volume of available product has not appreciably increased since the introduction earlier this year.

  92. Really Interesting Comments are at -1 by udachny · · Score: 0

    The only really interesting comments are at -1 Troll as they normally are on such stories.

  93. Krugman naturally doesn't like Bitcoin by Quila · · Score: 1

    A government can't print more of it.

  94. Mansa Musa did it by Quila · · Score: 1

    Mansa Musa, an African ruler, went to Mecca on the Hajj with a huge caravan carrying tons of gold. He spent so much during his visit to Cairo and other cities on the way that it depressed the value of gold and caused massive inflation. Realizing this, he borrowed a bunch of gold to drive the value back up. But the market didn't stabilize for years.

  95. iPad cures cancer by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    I'd rather have more stupid Apple stories than one more article about fucking bitcoins.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  96. re: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Keynesians are not "real economists".

  97. Re:Bitcoin by r_a_trip · · Score: 1

    The CPU mining; does it generate something of value?

    No and that is the really peculiar part of it. People are using real resources (computers and electricity) and paying for that with real money to produce a digital puff of smoke called a bitcoin, in which they then place more trust than the money issued by the government they elected themselves.

    Bitcoin isn't even close to the gold standard. Just because a person has wasted real, physical resources in a convoluted proces to produce a string of ones and zeros, doesn't mean that string carries value (above the fairytale belief that it actually does). When a virtual currency is backed by gold, there is actual, physical gold in a repository to imbue the virtual representation of it with real value. Handing over that virtual representation can get you the physical gold. Even if you don't value gold for its own properties, at least it has industrial applications that are valuable.

    Bitcoin on the other hand is backed by unnecessary environmental pollution, which you can't even physically claim by handing over that bitcoin. Not that I think people are waiting to physically get their waste CO2 handed back to them for their folly.

    My guess is that, at some point in time, all those geeks will realize they wasted numerous hours and real money costing resources to produce exactly nothing and that it ultimately was only their own misguided belief that gave it a shine of value.

    The only ones laughing are those who produced a lot of bitcoin when they were easy to create. For some inexplicable reason these digital puffs of smoke can now be traded for real money.

    How do you print money? Get gullible saps believing that your magic beans are worth real world money.

    --
    # touch universe # chmod +rwx universe # ./universe
  98. Re:Bitcoin by Spunkee · · Score: 0

    So people are actually giving you cash money for your bitcoins? I highly doubt that, as anyone with real cash money actually sees no value in bitcoins. Bitcoin fans have such sorry lives that they put personal value on making their CPUs and GPUs do stuff and accumulate points. Nerds love to accumulate points (see the slashdot karma system), because they lack anything truly fulfilling in their lives.

  99. Point accumulation by Spunkee · · Score: 0

    Bitcoin is just point accumulation for geeks/nerds. No different than the slashdot karma system, RPGs, folding at home scores, etc. When you have nothing fulfilling in your life, you accumulate points to define yourself. Fucking sad.

  100. Re:Bitcoin by SanityInAnarchy · · Score: 1

    Erm...

    People are using real resources (computers and electricity) and paying for that with real money to produce a digital puff of smoke called a bitcoin,

    I also use real resources (computers, electricity, and time) and I both pay for and am paid for these things with real money, in order to produce a digital puff of smoke called software.

    in which they then place more trust than the money issued by the government they elected themselves.

    This may be your most relevant argument, if you actually fleshed it out. But the rest of it...

    Bitcoin isn't even close to the gold standard.

    It's actually very close to the gold standard. People use real resources and real money to dig up a metal whose only real use is that it's kind of shiny, so people place value on it...

    When a virtual currency is backed by gold, there is actual, physical gold in a repository to imbue the virtual representation of it with real value.

    Only as much value as the actual gold contains. So let's see...

    Even if you don't value gold for its own properties, at least it has industrial applications that are valuable.

    Oh, bullshit. How much would it actually be worth if we only valued it for its industrial applications? By that logic, silicon should be our currency.

    For that matter, what's the industrial application of any "real money", like the dollar? Unless people value it for its intrinsic properties, or for what it will buy, it's not like you're going to take those bills and build something out of them. Not that it would really matter, since more dollars these days are digital anyway than physical.

    Bitcoin on the other hand is backed by unnecessary environmental pollution,

    Which is again pretty much like the gold standard. I can't imagine that if we started distributing the gold in Fort Knox to industry, that we would actually need any mining for the next few decades, if not centuries.

    For that matter, we need to be switching to alternative energy anyway. Electricity is possible to generate cleanly. Gold isn't.

    My guess is that, at some point in time, all those geeks will realize they wasted numerous hours and real money costing resources to produce exactly nothing and that it ultimately was only their own misguided belief that gave it a shine of value.

    And you could say the same thing about any other currency, except that we have collectively decided that these other currencies have value, but Bitcoin doesn't.

    Most of your argument amounts to an argument against characteristics Bitcoin has in common with other currencies, and particularly with the gold standard. I'm not saying you're wrong, and it's true that Bitcoin will have no value if no one values it -- which is much more likely to happen to Bitcoin than to other forms of currency -- but to say that it isn't even close to the gold standard, and then enumerate a list of complaints about it that apply as easily to gold, makes no sense.

    --
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  101. Re:Bitcoin by r_a_trip · · Score: 1

    So people are actually giving you cash money for your bitcoins?

    No, I never bought in to it. I should have though, when it was still easy to grab these intrinsically worthless pieces.

    To see that there are people working their ass off to exchange acceptable money for digital nothingness, just look here:

    https://mtgox.com/trade/buy

    You can actually plonk down real money to get these silly signed computer files.

    --
    # touch universe # chmod +rwx universe # ./universe
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  107. Re:Bitcoin by fgodfrey · · Score: 1

    Err, you don't touch the neutral with 240Volt (this is assuming US wiring) either. 120V, 240V, and 3-Phase 208V systems have 1, 2, or 3 hot wires. All of the hot's have a 120VAC potential relative to neutral/ground. For a 240V setup, it's two hots that are 180 degrees out of phase with each other. 208 volts is 3 hots which are 120 degrees out of phase. If you build a 240 volt device that uses two 20 amps at 120V circuits and sends back through neutral, the neutral will carry between 0 and 20 amps depending on how balanced your load is between the two phases, which is why you need a neutral that is sized to carry the same maximum load as the hots.

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  108. Re:Bitcoin by s73v3r · · Score: 1

    So basically, the only way you're "making money" off this thing is that you're stealing electricity? Yeah, that sounds like a great plan.

  109. Re:Bitcoin by s73v3r · · Score: 1

    So are you sharing your profits with them? I mean, they are helping to pay for your endeavors.

  110. Re:Bitcoin by s73v3r · · Score: 1

    It's actually very close to the gold standard.

    No, it's not. Under the Gold Standard, I could take my currency and trade it in for an equivalent amount of gold. What can I trade a set of Bitcoins for?

    Oh, bullshit. How much would it actually be worth if we only valued it for its industrial applications?

    Nowhere near what it's worth now. Which makes the whole "Gold is better than US Dollars" thing kinda silly. In the collapse of civilization, US Dollars might be worthless, but odds are your gold will be too. You can eat it, you can't make weapons out of it. What can you do with gold? Make jewelry? Yeah, there's not gonna be a big market for that.

    For that matter, what's the industrial application of any "real money", like the dollar?

    Facilitating trade.

  111. Re:You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of g by s73v3r · · Score: 1

    You're right! I totally should be given the "freedom" to be fired because of the color of my skin, because of my religion, or because of my sexual orientation!

  112. Re:You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of g by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

    Yes, you should. It is called freedom of association.

    --
    The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
  113. Re:You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of g by s73v3r · · Score: 1

    No, I shouldn't. That is not "freedom of association". It's discrimination, pure and simple. And it's disgusting.

    Tell me, why should your "freedom of association" be able to trump my requirement that I be able to work? Or buy food?

  114. Re:Bitcoin by BKX · · Score: 1

    Ironically, I knew that and meant to put that in my asterisk as well, but submitted too quickly.

  115. hoarding is balanced out by demand by ecorona · · Score: 1

    Plenty of hoarders will attempt to buy them, thereby creating demand for them. There will always be some people who want to hoard bitcoins and not generate the bitcoins personally. They will want to buy them at market prices. This constant demand will ensure transactions keep occuring. Look at any bitcoin exchange and you'll see that there is no shortage of transactions and the "hoarding" isn't bringing bitcoin transactions to a standstill by any means. My advice is put in a few hundred dollars on bitcoins.

  116. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  117. Re:Bitcoin by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

    Funny I was growing indoors for more then a decade (until market forces made it not worth my while, CA though).

    Now it's just four in the backyard.

    He should/is scam whatever welfare is available. Bitcoin/pot income would be hard to track, so he can suck on the government tit until it goes dry. I assume he already is. Very typical for parasites to work under the table.

    --
    John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  118. Peak by Artemis3 · · Score: 1

    The remaining crude is heavier, in deeper places. Needs more energy to extract, and refine, and its market price is lower than the lighter ones. One of the last places with good amounts of light crude oil is... Libya.

    Fossil fuels are not going to run out anytime soon, they are simply getting less profitable, more expensive to get. It is one of the effects of "peaking", after more than a century of extracting the best (and even burning away perfectly good but then less valued natural gas).

    Eventually the private companies will give up or reduce their size drastically and mostly State owned operations will remain. See the refining business? Of course you can't sue your country for a spill in the ocean or a national park they will drill into... Might even subcontract scapegoats to blame into oblivion for any mistakes.

    Opec might even be reaching production limits, but this can never be disclosed to prevent market panic. In the meantime other powers are literally destroying Opec members one by one, only to leave the places unstable and unable to even reach previous Opec production levels.

    ALSO country population and economies grow, and that needs more energy, period. China and India to name the biggest 2. Right now US & friends are having a field day bombing whomever they want, but soon enough those powers are going to act to protect their suppliers, and perhaps a bit of world balance will be restored (by way of tensions, sadly).

    The US will have to learn from Europe to live with expensive energy and become more efficient, even if that means the collapse of suburbia, give up SUVs and live closer to work; not to mention relearn to produce their own stuff (including food) again.

    --
    Artix
    Your Linux, your init.
  119. Re:Bitcoin by SanityInAnarchy · · Score: 1

    No, it's not. Under the Gold Standard, I could take my currency and trade it in for an equivalent amount of gold. What can I trade a set of Bitcoins for?

    Missing the point. Bitcoins are the otherwise-useless item which we all agree has value. With the Gold Standard, it'd be gold. If Bitcoin were to somehow take over (which seems unlikely), you'd likely have things like paper currency which would be backed by actual bitcoins being held in reserve somewhere, assuming the bitcoins themselves can't be made convenient enough (which is likely).

    You speak as though gold is incredibly more valuable than data for some reason other than that gold is actually used for trade. Then you say this:

    Oh, bullshit. How much would it actually be worth if we only valued it for its industrial applications?

    Nowhere near what it's worth now.

    Which was my point. The actual inherent value of a currency is almost entirely based on how much it's actually being used as a medium of exchange, and not some intrinsic properties of it. Dollars, for example, are not backed by the gold standard and have almost no use other than as a medium of exchange, and are more often digital than physical anyway -- so you could at best exchange "virtual" dollars in your bank account for "real" paper dollars.

    For that matter, what's the industrial application of any "real money", like the dollar?

    Facilitating trade.

    Oh, zing!

    Except you just contradicted yourself. If "facilitating trade" counts, then the dollar would be worth exactly what it's worth now. You just admitted it wouldn't be worth nearly that much. Clearly, you weren't talking about "facilitating trade" as an application of gold.

    --
    Don't thank God, thank a doctor!
  120. Re:Bitcoin by jonadab · · Score: 1

    Actually, a lot of newer residential installations in the US are using 30-amp breakers these days, although 20-amp ones are probably still more common, even in new installations. (Setups from the late twentieth century, however, often use 14-2 cable (instead of 12-2 or better) and so tend to have 15-amp breakers for everything except the dryer and range, because a heftier breaker wouldn't be a real great idea with that cabling. Heaven forfend you put a modern thousand-watt microwave oven on such a circuit, because it'll trip the breaker every time you turn around. And don't even get me started on old fusebox installations that you can find in nooks and crannies in the unfinished basements of older homes from the first half of the twentieth century, complete with pairs of non-cabled cloth-insulated wires [shudder] plastered right into the wall, without the benefit of junction boxes or conduit or even a second layer of insulation, running to ceramic standoffs, with no proper grounding anywhere...)

    I have no idea what's prevalent in Europe. For all I know they could have speaker-wire-quality pre-WWI uninsulated lines running through the mortar between the foundation blocks and gnawed by dozens of generations of rats in one building and separate sixty-amp circuits run through proper conduit for each outlet in the building next door.

    --
    Cut that out, or I will ship you to Norilsk in a box.
  121. Re:Bitcoin by RoFLKOPTr · · Score: 1

    Actually, a lot of newer residential installations in the US are using 30-amp breakers these days, although 20-amp ones are probably still more common, even in new installations.

    I'm not sure where you heard that, but the required lighting and small appliance circuits in a dwelling as detailed in the National Electrical Code section 210.52 must have overcurrent protection of either 15 or 20 amps. I believe you CAN install general-purpose circuits rated higher than that around the house, but those would be in addition to the required 15/20-amp receptacles (of which there are many: any wall space must be within 6ft of a receptacle, kitchens must have no less than two separate small-appliance circuits feeding not less than two receptacles with any countertop space more than 12-in wide having no point on the wall be further than 24-in from a receptacle, etc, etc, etc), and would require receptacles rated for whatever the circuit is rated for (in most cases). A 15-amp circuit must only have 15-amp receptacles. A 20-amp circuit can have 15- and/or 20-amp receptacles. A 30-amp circuit must have only 30-amp receptacles. Basically, if the plugs in your house don't look like this, then you don't have 30-amp circuits... and frankly why would you?

    (Setups from the late twentieth century, however, often use 14-2 cable (instead of 12-2 or better) and so tend to have 15-amp breakers for everything except the dryer and range, because a heftier breaker wouldn't be a real great idea with that cabling. Heaven forfend you put a modern thousand-watt microwave oven on such a circuit, because it'll trip the breaker every time you turn around.

    Most new construction still runs 15-amp lighting and small-appliance circuits... and therefore usually runs #14 because it's cheaper. And a 1000W microwave on 120V only draws 8.3A or so... if your wiring is planned out properly such that the microwave mostly has a circuit to itself, it should never trip a breaker. And as for "a heftier breaker wouldn't be a real great idea with that cabling"... there are clear requirements in the form of both text and tables that dictate how you are to plan the circuitry for a residential dwelling as well as what size wire, breakers, etc you are to use. It's very clear-cut. Either what you're installing meets code or it doesn't. If it does, you're fine. If it doesn't, you're breaking the law and risking your life and property (or that of whomever you're doing the work for). I hope you're not installing wiring in your own house using fuzzy logic like that.

    And don't even get me started on old fusebox installations that you can find in nooks and crannies in the unfinished basements of older homes from the first half of the twentieth century, complete with pairs of non-cabled cloth-insulated wires [shudder] plastered right into the wall, without the benefit of junction boxes or conduit or even a second layer of insulation, running to ceramic standoffs, with no proper grounding anywhere...)

    That's called knob and tube wiring. It was common until the 1930s or so and usually uses wire insulated by a cloth/rubber composite... and it was considered proper and perfectly up to code back then. No grounding anywhere because no appliances needed a ground back then (rather, the need for a ground was not recognized). Most existing K&T installations have extremely brittle insulation and nobody in their right mind should dare fuck with it or you'll end up with some extremely hazardous conditions.

    (Hint: I'm an electrician.)