I didn't. I gave you a link to the science, but the rest of my post was more in reply to the totality of posts above. Seems to me that rather than focusing on the science of climate change, it might be worthwhile focusing on the science of population change.
The strange thing to me has always been that just about everywhere else in the world people get on and attempt to deal with the problem (usually badly), but in the US the immediate response is to try to ignore it. That says something to me.
In return, maybe there is something you can help me with. Whenever these types of stories turn up here, there is a flood of posts from the US saying there is no problem, its all a liberal plot, etc.
Why is this?
You're the one's that get more hurricanes, more desertification, more reliance on oil based propping up of your civilisation. Frankly, why would it matter WHY the average global climate temperature was rising - you're still screwed if you sit around and do nothing.
There has got to be something in the US education system that makes this type of behaviour prevalent - climate change, peak oil, kennedy assassination - you seem to love to ignore common sense and nit pick on some small item of data to try and construct some alternative view of the world which strains credulity?
Its landing a hovering vertical landing aricraft on a pitching ship - a very different problem since the aircraft and the ship are both moving in 3D with roughly the same speeds.
High speed aircraft and big carriers (read not pitching as much) is very, very different.
Listen to this guy and cut through the jargon and you see a cultural viewpoint that is not shared by most of the world.
For instance, he says that everyone will WANT to live in cities - forgetting that most people want to get OUT of them, they are just forced to have to live close together by factors which don't continue into the future.
He says that energy won't be a problem because 'efficiency' will make the transport use of oil exponentially more efficient - ignoring the pollution problems from greater numbers of users in the third world swamping the pace of efficiency improvements.
He's ignoring the impact of real culture on technology and development. He ignores how individuals from different parts of the world will want to create different futures. Look at how Japanese culture shaped technology towards their interests, and out evolved the US. Look at how your inflight LCD screens have the option to show you the direction to Mecca.
I'll make a prediction: by 2010 the cultures east of the prime meridian will turn their backs on a future set out by american viewpoints, and chart a course which heads in a different direction.
Get a player with a hard disk, probably at least 20Gb. That way you can carry your entire music collection with you and you have enough choice to make sure you can find the right music for your mood.
Make sure you can use MP3 or Ogg files, with no loss on the player. Anything that doesn't contain one of these is a nonstarter.
Buy CD and rip them to MP3s for your player. Make sure this is easy with your chosen player. That way you maintain control of you property and have the flexibility to deal with new formats, backups, etc.
Batteries have to last at least 5 hours, preferably 10 - otherwise they are a bind to use.
Work out how long it would take to find a song amongst 3000 others. It should be less than 10 seconds - you want the music to dominate, not the user interface.
Don't pay for stuff you don't need
Ipods aren't as good as many people make them out to be, they have a definite fashion element to them. However they are closer to where most people are with their needs (shuffle excepted) than the competitors. As far as the next generation?
I want the base station back at home to connect to the PC and the hifi amp, maybe wirelessly for one or the other. If its storing my collection I want easy access.
I want a CD player built into the base station. Pop the CD in here and the ripping and installing in the player is automatic (PC not involved).
I want the ability to plug this player into my car (obvious one really).
If I'm buying a song online I want cheaper, and I want recognition that once I've bought it, its mine and I'll do what I want with it. I don't care what YOU think the 'licence' is, its mine and that's not up for debate.
Lose the wired headphones.
Re:I'll take content over "hip-looking, style-lade
on
Web Design Garage
·
· Score: 1
Yep, got it, and guess what...
I like it
The non linear nature of it, the use of typeface actually ADDS to the ease of use. I can read it by ignoring the sidebars, confident I know what they contain. I can read it taking note of the key points and not the explanation; I can read it in a variety of different ways.
Above all, I read it because it doesn't bore me and gets across its message in a form that has impact.
If you can't take anything other than linear text, with headings in bold 18pt and justified columns - you need to get in touch with your tacit, artistic side; you're preconception that the world is simple and logical is holding you back.
OK, in the spirit of looking back, here is what I predicted last year here on/. together with what I think will happen this time
# ipod and mini ipod will be hit by a wave of cheap replacements that both allow you to store/play music AND video. These will integrate with mobile phones (2G).
Well, there were loads of attempts to replace the ipod, and many had colour screens and video. However the integration with the mobile phone was only half hearted and virtually all failed to beat Apple on the sexiness front. Its strange really, the ipod ISN'T that great to use, but it has an x factor where the others don't. And others development methodologies seem to be unable to work in the right way to replicate what should be easy.
# Multi processor machines will begin to take off in the business environment. Single user, multi machine setups will smooth the rollout of Linux/OpenOffice and make people more productive.
Maybe not 2004, but the rise of the dual core and virtualisation as the way forward during this year has laid the groundwork. So in one sense it was a win since the future IS away from the single core. Nobody was there to do the obvious; place a dual processor box on the desktop for those that wanted to be ahead of the game.
# Appliances that take advantage of home broadband links and WiFi will take off.
Surprisingly little has come out in this domain, certainly in the mainstream. Market penetration is there, but not the new devices.
# Microsoft will get scared, and will run towards early launch of XBox 2 as a home machine. Failure will spell the fall of Microsoft.
I think microsoft ARE scared, and they will be launching the XBox2 earlier than the PS3, but they are still too slow to catch the wave. Given the horribly late delivery of Longhorn, with much less in the way of capability than promised - I do think we have seen the beginning of the fall of the house of Microsoft.
# The Apple House will be unveiled
Nope, Apple still think they are a computer company, rather than a consumer electronics company. The door which was open to them is slowly closing. Once someone works out how to replicate their design wins, they are toast. Very poor strategy choices from Jobs here.
What are the lessons? Well, its obvious that the industry has significantly slowed down. People aren't moving far or fast to develop new markets. The bean counters and marketing geeks are looking backward at what was, not at what could be. Ordinarily this would be a time of great opportunity, a time when those with a vision could create new startups and have the time to build big enough businesses. However with the extent and misuse of patents, large companies can sit on such innovation to the detriment of the market as a whole. That creates a degree of pent up tension in the market that has to resolve eventually. Will we see it in 2005? Probably not, but the offensive use of patents, coupled with lazy bean counting approaches to commerce will become a festering issue.
What will we see then?
The open source community will start to switch from reproduction of existing elements, to creation of new solutions, possibly involving hardware. The time is right for those with vision to tie up with those with skills to create new markets - it just needs an instigator.
Outsourcing is winning many new business friends, but as is usual with these director types, the distance and lack of control threatens their position ("what value are you really adding"). Therefore expect the multinationals to attempt to create greater levers of control into the outsourced functions - which will go down like a lead balloon with China.
China will come out with a DRM free, cheap, HDTV compatible replacement for BluRay and HD DVD. It will be a low cost addon to existing cheap DVD players. Movie companies will hate it, but the world isn't as it once was. Coupled with cracking of the protection around the new forma
Think you have that one the wrong way round. The US national debt is over $7 trillion, 70% of US GDP. Your economy is being supported by overseas investors, if they lose confidence and withdraw their money - its the US that goes broke.
By comparison the UK debt is 33% of GDP and the euro countries had deficit targets they had to meet (but often fudged) to join the single currency in the first place.
The next country to suffer reversal of fortunes and crippling problems is likely to be the US: no plans as to how to deal with your deficit, big costs coming up, and no good will around the world.
The US was, and is, a nation that fostered terrorism in quite a number of countries around the world. Do you think that gives China the right to send in the helicopter gunships and take over?
Nobody liked Saddam, but more people are worried about the terrorist actions of the US than were worried about him.
Remember, double standards come home to roost. Unless you get a heap more humility and start acting to the standards of the civilised world, one day you are going to find out that type of behaviour hurts.
Don't whine about it then, you're not special and have no special rights. Learn the lesson now, before its too late.
Just banning the products of those that haven't ponied up the bribe money would seem not to be sufficient.
After all, what is to stop a competitor (particularly a female competitor) who is sponsored by Nike from peeling off the offending Adidas clothing on the winning rostrum, grinding it beneath their heal, and telling the press it was a protest against oppression of the loathed Adidas brand? Instant negative publicity for the brand sponsor - and trouble for those in the Olympic cabal that OKed this corrupt idea.
In the end, if this is about business; then the inducements to win the publicity war for the individual by fighting against the big, bad, globalisation baddie to too large and juicy to ignore.
Time to step away, now. This road ends badly for the IOC.
The point is, take a number - 1 in 20, 1 in 50, whatever.
If the number is anywhere higher than 1 in 200 your first step to dealing with it is to understand what's behind it. Its not random, and its not programmed in - its something that can be researched and identified.
That's the first required step along the line to actually dealing with the problem, not brushing it under the carpet and dealing with the symptoms.
If this is a real problem, then the solution needs to be real to. However, I'd bet the problem is NOT as prevalent as painted, and the solution would cast too bright a light on society for it to be palettable.
It seems all you need to do today is use the words 'terrorist' or 'child porn' for everyone to stop thinking, stop questioning, and act like good little automatons.
250,000 attempts is one attempt for every ten subscribers. Does that sound realistic? Hell, if you're a BT broadband paedo are you going to continually hammer on the sites, or consider that a firewall is in place and either give up or go elsewhere?
Who thinks that the BT marketing arm is inflating those figures? After all, what sites are they counting? How are they counting? Are they looking for malware? I somehow doubt even 10% of those numbers are really from the sex offender types.
This type of reporting is dangerous. People think that these type of people are more prevalant than they are, they react by denying kids a normal childhood in the name of safety. Meanwhile 'child porn' becomes a convenient black brush to daub all over anything, or anyone, someone wants to attack.
If child porn really is this prevalant, why is no one asking why?
Not only do you have all the pleasures of old age, and your rapidly approaching death to look forward to - you have to consider who will help you when you can't help yourself.
Now maybe you'll get lucky. Maybe your children, if you have them, will take care of your, for years maybe. However, with the selfish imperative so much to the fore in today's society, do you really think they are going to drop their lives to look after the end of yours?
So we come to nursing homes. Well, the numbers just don't add up. The cost of that people based care is crippling - savings that you might still have are eaten up and no state wants to pay the money needed to meet even the worst care around.
Technologies like these mentioned help to reduce the number of people needed to look after old people, making the budgets make a bit more sense. However trading what it means to be human for a few more years of life is not a trade that most people want to make.
So, you technocrats out there. While you still have your health and your marbles, consider creating some technology that will support you even when you don't know what day it is. The right type of technology that will maintain your humanity - before you have to use it yourself.
Guess what. The really valuable information walks in and out of the building every day, and goes with you when you get sick of the big brother policies and finally leave.
Its in your head, and it can't be checked at the door.
At least it *shouldn't* be checked at the door, but for those that put these types of policy in place which do more harm than good - well maybe it does.
There is nothing to be unexpected in this type of development - shops, like people, will attempt to optimise their habits to maximise their gain. The only question is what should the result be in the escalating arms race from the shoppers' perspective?
My suggestion is shopping clubs.
Get together a group of good consumers, mums on the school run is a prime recruiting ground. Organise until the number of participants is significant; and issue a membership card.
Then visit the shops.
Tell them that the group will promise to use a particular store for a particular type of shopping in exchange for a discount off all elements in store on production of the membership card. Organise an auction process for a type of shopping for an entire quarter and get the shops to bid against each other.
Providing the manager sees the take goes up for those stores in that quarter, everyone wins.
That way you can exercise the power of the mass market in the same way the shops use their marketing size to drive down supplier costs - the enticement of the large numbers with the threat of losing those numbers if they don't play ball.
In fact, since one thing Slashdot does have is size, that model would work well for Slashdot membership and computer goods...
Err, I think they mean consumer DVD recorders that take the place of your VHS recorder (since they mention MPEG2 chips). These are still not $110 (65) a piece, so hold your horses.
Maybe I'm missing something, but surely you would store the holographic image data (eg the thing that drives the 2D microdisplay), rather than attempting to convert on the fly.
Therefore what you need, past the circuitry, is a good compression algorithm for the holographic data. This is unlikely to follow the precepts of the JPEG/MPEG compression (more oppotunity for patents methinks). Together with the display technology you then have a viable system.
Interesting technology, maybe, but not a complete solution yet.
Those 'propeller-beanie techies', as you put it, are often more grounded in reality than the marketing and advertising liars that incompetent management often attempt to 'put in charge'.
Market weenies are too much of 'today' - they are forever trying to catch up with where others have been, reacting rather than acting. They should NEVER be anything other than support to something with a development time greater than six months in the IT world. The drive for something to be delivered in a year's time should always be someone who can imagine that far out.
And on a related point, do you notice how you feel quite happy using abusive terms for those with technical skill? Do you ever call marketing and advertising 'liars' (as I did above)? If not, why not? It's an apt description - but maybe they would complain to much, it wouldn't be socially acceptable.
Until you start having respect for those that can do, you will never learn to work successfully TOGETHER, and you'll continue to think conflict is the best collaboration.
Slashdot Mirror
The strange thing to me has always been that just about everywhere else in the world people get on and attempt to deal with the problem (usually badly), but in the US the immediate response is to try to ignore it. That says something to me.
In return, maybe there is something you can help me with. Whenever these types of stories turn up here, there is a flood of posts from the US saying there is no problem, its all a liberal plot, etc.
Why is this?
You're the one's that get more hurricanes, more desertification, more reliance on oil based propping up of your civilisation. Frankly, why would it matter WHY the average global climate temperature was rising - you're still screwed if you sit around and do nothing.
There has got to be something in the US education system that makes this type of behaviour prevalent - climate change, peak oil, kennedy assassination - you seem to love to ignore common sense and nit pick on some small item of data to try and construct some alternative view of the world which strains credulity?
Why?
You'll forgive me if I trust more in Clippy being useful than in management being 'proper'.
Maybe it would be an idea to work this out for yourself now, and if you are in one of those states which is untenable, move quickly.
$60 a barrel is the start, $100...$200 is only a shock away.
http://worldwind.arc.nasa.gov/
Sounds like a pretty good description of most Hollywood films dealing with naval aviation (eg Top Gun)
Your point was?
High speed aircraft and big carriers (read not pitching as much) is very, very different.
Listen to this guy and cut through the jargon and you see a cultural viewpoint that is not shared by most of the world.
For instance, he says that everyone will WANT to live in cities - forgetting that most people want to get OUT of them, they are just forced to have to live close together by factors which don't continue into the future.
He says that energy won't be a problem because 'efficiency' will make the transport use of oil exponentially more efficient - ignoring the pollution problems from greater numbers of users in the third world swamping the pace of efficiency improvements.
He's ignoring the impact of real culture on technology and development. He ignores how individuals from different parts of the world will want to create different futures. Look at how Japanese culture shaped technology towards their interests, and out evolved the US. Look at how your inflight LCD screens have the option to show you the direction to Mecca.
I'll make a prediction: by 2010 the cultures east of the prime meridian will turn their backs on a future set out by american viewpoints, and chart a course which heads in a different direction.
- Get a player with a hard disk, probably at least 20Gb. That way you can carry your entire music collection with you and you have enough choice to make sure you can find the right music for your mood.
- Make sure you can use MP3 or Ogg files, with no loss on the player. Anything that doesn't contain one of these is a nonstarter.
- Buy CD and rip them to MP3s for your player. Make sure this is easy with your chosen player. That way you maintain control of you property and have the flexibility to deal with new formats, backups, etc.
- Batteries have to last at least 5 hours, preferably 10 - otherwise they are a bind to use.
- Work out how long it would take to find a song amongst 3000 others. It should be less than 10 seconds - you want the music to dominate, not the user interface.
- Don't pay for stuff you don't need
Ipods aren't as good as many people make them out to be, they have a definite fashion element to them. However they are closer to where most people are with their needs (shuffle excepted) than the competitors. As far as the next generation?I like it
The non linear nature of it, the use of typeface actually ADDS to the ease of use. I can read it by ignoring the sidebars, confident I know what they contain. I can read it taking note of the key points and not the explanation; I can read it in a variety of different ways.
Above all, I read it because it doesn't bore me and gets across its message in a form that has impact.
If you can't take anything other than linear text, with headings in bold 18pt and justified columns - you need to get in touch with your tacit, artistic side; you're preconception that the world is simple and logical is holding you back.
# ipod and mini ipod will be hit by a wave of cheap replacements that both allow you to store/play music AND video. These will integrate with mobile phones (2G).
Well, there were loads of attempts to replace the ipod, and many had colour screens and video. However the integration with the mobile phone was only half hearted and virtually all failed to beat Apple on the sexiness front. Its strange really, the ipod ISN'T that great to use, but it has an x factor where the others don't. And others development methodologies seem to be unable to work in the right way to replicate what should be easy.
# Multi processor machines will begin to take off in the business environment. Single user, multi machine setups will smooth the rollout of Linux/OpenOffice and make people more productive.
Maybe not 2004, but the rise of the dual core and virtualisation as the way forward during this year has laid the groundwork. So in one sense it was a win since the future IS away from the single core. Nobody was there to do the obvious; place a dual processor box on the desktop for those that wanted to be ahead of the game.
# Appliances that take advantage of home broadband links and WiFi will take off.
Surprisingly little has come out in this domain, certainly in the mainstream. Market penetration is there, but not the new devices.
# Microsoft will get scared, and will run towards early launch of XBox 2 as a home machine. Failure will spell the fall of Microsoft.
I think microsoft ARE scared, and they will be launching the XBox2 earlier than the PS3, but they are still too slow to catch the wave. Given the horribly late delivery of Longhorn, with much less in the way of capability than promised - I do think we have seen the beginning of the fall of the house of Microsoft.
# The Apple House will be unveiled
Nope, Apple still think they are a computer company, rather than a consumer electronics company. The door which was open to them is slowly closing. Once someone works out how to replicate their design wins, they are toast. Very poor strategy choices from Jobs here.
What are the lessons? Well, its obvious that the industry has significantly slowed down. People aren't moving far or fast to develop new markets. The bean counters and marketing geeks are looking backward at what was, not at what could be. Ordinarily this would be a time of great opportunity, a time when those with a vision could create new startups and have the time to build big enough businesses. However with the extent and misuse of patents, large companies can sit on such innovation to the detriment of the market as a whole. That creates a degree of pent up tension in the market that has to resolve eventually. Will we see it in 2005? Probably not, but the offensive use of patents, coupled with lazy bean counting approaches to commerce will become a festering issue.
What will we see then?
The open source community will start to switch from reproduction of existing elements, to creation of new solutions, possibly involving hardware. The time is right for those with vision to tie up with those with skills to create new markets - it just needs an instigator.
Outsourcing is winning many new business friends, but as is usual with these director types, the distance and lack of control threatens their position ("what value are you really adding"). Therefore expect the multinationals to attempt to create greater levers of control into the outsourced functions - which will go down like a lead balloon with China.
China will come out with a DRM free, cheap, HDTV compatible replacement for BluRay and HD DVD. It will be a low cost addon to existing cheap DVD players. Movie companies will hate it, but the world isn't as it once was. Coupled with cracking of the protection around the new forma
The Zalman pipe gets poor reviews for performance. Get the real version of this that actually works, quietly and without fans or overheating.
By comparison the UK debt is 33% of GDP and the euro countries had deficit targets they had to meet (but often fudged) to join the single currency in the first place.
The next country to suffer reversal of fortunes and crippling problems is likely to be the US: no plans as to how to deal with your deficit, big costs coming up, and no good will around the world.
The US was, and is, a nation that fostered terrorism in quite a number of countries around the world. Do you think that gives China the right to send in the helicopter gunships and take over?
Nobody liked Saddam, but more people are worried about the terrorist actions of the US than were worried about him.
Remember, double standards come home to roost. Unless you get a heap more humility and start acting to the standards of the civilised world, one day you are going to find out that type of behaviour hurts.
Don't whine about it then, you're not special and have no special rights. Learn the lesson now, before its too late.
And extend it to patents as well. Anyone ever read "Distraction"?
Why not go to the source, rather than CNN, on this one.
After all, what is to stop a competitor (particularly a female competitor) who is sponsored by Nike from peeling off the offending Adidas clothing on the winning rostrum, grinding it beneath their heal, and telling the press it was a protest against oppression of the loathed Adidas brand? Instant negative publicity for the brand sponsor - and trouble for those in the Olympic cabal that OKed this corrupt idea.
In the end, if this is about business; then the inducements to win the publicity war for the individual by fighting against the big, bad, globalisation baddie to too large and juicy to ignore.
Time to step away, now. This road ends badly for the IOC.
If the number is anywhere higher than 1 in 200 your first step to dealing with it is to understand what's behind it. Its not random, and its not programmed in - its something that can be researched and identified.
That's the first required step along the line to actually dealing with the problem, not brushing it under the carpet and dealing with the symptoms.
If this is a real problem, then the solution needs to be real to. However, I'd bet the problem is NOT as prevalent as painted, and the solution would cast too bright a light on society for it to be palettable.
It seems all you need to do today is use the words 'terrorist' or 'child porn' for everyone to stop thinking, stop questioning, and act like good little automatons.
Why is a better question than what or who.
250,000 attempts is one attempt for every ten subscribers. Does that sound realistic? Hell, if you're a BT broadband paedo are you going to continually hammer on the sites, or consider that a firewall is in place and either give up or go elsewhere?
Who thinks that the BT marketing arm is inflating those figures? After all, what sites are they counting? How are they counting? Are they looking for malware? I somehow doubt even 10% of those numbers are really from the sex offender types.
This type of reporting is dangerous. People think that these type of people are more prevalant than they are, they react by denying kids a normal childhood in the name of safety. Meanwhile 'child porn' becomes a convenient black brush to daub all over anything, or anyone, someone wants to attack.
If child porn really is this prevalant, why is no one asking why?
Not only do you have all the pleasures of old age, and your rapidly approaching death to look forward to - you have to consider who will help you when you can't help yourself.
Now maybe you'll get lucky. Maybe your children, if you have them, will take care of your, for years maybe. However, with the selfish imperative so much to the fore in today's society, do you really think they are going to drop their lives to look after the end of yours?
So we come to nursing homes. Well, the numbers just don't add up. The cost of that people based care is crippling - savings that you might still have are eaten up and no state wants to pay the money needed to meet even the worst care around.
Technologies like these mentioned help to reduce the number of people needed to look after old people, making the budgets make a bit more sense. However trading what it means to be human for a few more years of life is not a trade that most people want to make.
So, you technocrats out there. While you still have your health and your marbles, consider creating some technology that will support you even when you don't know what day it is. The right type of technology that will maintain your humanity - before you have to use it yourself.
Its in your head, and it can't be checked at the door.
At least it *shouldn't* be checked at the door, but for those that put these types of policy in place which do more harm than good - well maybe it does.
My suggestion is shopping clubs.
Get together a group of good consumers, mums on the school run is a prime recruiting ground. Organise until the number of participants is significant; and issue a membership card.
Then visit the shops.
Tell them that the group will promise to use a particular store for a particular type of shopping in exchange for a discount off all elements in store on production of the membership card. Organise an auction process for a type of shopping for an entire quarter and get the shops to bid against each other.
Providing the manager sees the take goes up for those stores in that quarter, everyone wins.
That way you can exercise the power of the mass market in the same way the shops use their marketing size to drive down supplier costs - the enticement of the large numbers with the threat of losing those numbers if they don't play ball.
In fact, since one thing Slashdot does have is size, that model would work well for Slashdot membership and computer goods...
Err, I think they mean consumer DVD recorders that take the place of your VHS recorder (since they mention MPEG2 chips). These are still not $110 (65) a piece, so hold your horses.
Therefore what you need, past the circuitry, is a good compression algorithm for the holographic data. This is unlikely to follow the precepts of the JPEG/MPEG compression (more oppotunity for patents methinks). Together with the display technology you then have a viable system.
Interesting technology, maybe, but not a complete solution yet.
Market weenies are too much of 'today' - they are forever trying to catch up with where others have been, reacting rather than acting. They should NEVER be anything other than support to something with a development time greater than six months in the IT world. The drive for something to be delivered in a year's time should always be someone who can imagine that far out.
And on a related point, do you notice how you feel quite happy using abusive terms for those with technical skill? Do you ever call marketing and advertising 'liars' (as I did above)? If not, why not? It's an apt description - but maybe they would complain to much, it wouldn't be socially acceptable.
Until you start having respect for those that can do, you will never learn to work successfully TOGETHER, and you'll continue to think conflict is the best collaboration.