What Should a Documentary Filmmaker Ask About Offshoring?
Philadelphia-area development economics and finance student Rachel Anderika and her associate, programmer/filmmaker Krishnan, are making a documentary about the effects of offshore outsourcing. Their "still under construction" Web site, Project Outsourced, gives you more information about their work. They're interviewing economists, bankers, anti-outsourcing advocacy groups, pro-outsourcing CEOs, columnists, and others. Where you come in is helping Rachel and Krishnan come up with good questions to ask. We'll forward 10 - 15 of the highest-moderated ones posted here (within the next 24 hours) to them. Expect summaries (and possibly audio or video clips) of the answers in late May, and news about the finished film this Fall.
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Valence Technology
VA Software
Veritas
Verizon
Here is a list of companies that use outsourcing.
I am appalled the companies would shift labor to lower-cost locations. This practice should not be tolerated. Now excuse me as I will get into my Honda and drive to nearest Wal-Mart for that 2-for-1 sale on Nike shoes and shirts, can't miss a deal like that.
The one question I have never been able to get a straight answer on. What field should the millions of displaced American IT workers get trained in?
It is always sais that people should be responsbile and learn new skills and train in a new field. When the farm economy shifted to manufacturing, people learned factory work. When manufacturing started to be offshored people were advised to get into IT. What field should people start to train in? Bush talks about training displaced workers, but I haven't heard anything about what their supposed to train in. What is the next new economy, retail?
Geek jobs come under threat. Suddenly geeks lose libertarian leanings* and belatedly side with the ex-manufacturing workers who bullied them through High School
*For ENTIRELY unrelated reasons, obviously. No hypocrisy here at all
A documentary is important and I would fully support one being created (Disclaimer: my first major in college was documentary film), but perhaps more importantly, that documentary would be made much stronger if it would include some hard numbers and studies including rigorous statistics on just how offshoring is helping (or hurting) the 1) corporation, 2) worker, 3) consumer. Perhaps not just the viewpoint in the US as an interesting perspective could be made from the person getting the job.
So, here is the deal: Documentaries are often about perspective but ideally, they are about finding the truth and revealing that truth to your viewer. Political perspectives are going to be difficult to get, but contact someone like Robert Reich who could place you in touch with a variety of folks in and out of the political scene.
bob@RobertReich.org
Robert Reich
P.O. Box 381483
Cambridge, MA 02238
(617) 547-2206
Fax: (617) 498-0048
Visit Jonesblog and say hello.
What sort of responsibility to create jobs should a company have to the nation that purchases/has a demand for the goods they're producing?
"What is the end of the line for the capitalist? "
When every person on the whole planet makes at least 60,000$/year ??
Very simply, do overseas workers cause more problems than they create? When it comes to programming, coordinating projects between two centers in different facilities in a single country is hard enough. Adding culture and language differences to the mix while not being able to have direct and on-site meetings to architect a complex program, is that a recipe for disaster? With overseas call centers, do you keep enough future customers due to deficiencies in customer support to make it financially viable to continue offshoring support? How do you cooordinate high-level management objectives with an office across the world?
Ask the arguments of the other side as questions.
For example, ask the anti-outsourcing advocates what the cost in non-visible jobs is by engaging in protectionism of the highly visible tech jobs lost to outsourcing.
Then ask the pro-outsourcing folks a question like how will the economy absorb the displaced workers resulting from outsourcing.
This will make each side actually defend their position instead of using you as a sounding platform for their agenda.
You can tell a great deal about the character of a man by observing those who hate him.
when the "Cowboy Neal" option started being replaced with "Bhagavad Neal"!
her associate, programmer/filmmaker Krishnan
Dear Krishnan,
Where will the film be produced?
"A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of" - Ogden Nash
can you find me a job?
I also reply below your current threshold.
(but who cares)
.. has the standard of living, for those working for American companies, increased at all? Or are the jobs just barely paying the bills like any other job might?
My question is
Africa doesn't have the education levels, yet. But when they do, we'll be there.
Slashdot "libertarians": Small government for me, big government for those I disagree with. -1, I disagree with you
Is outsourcing seen in the public eye as helping or destroying an economy? I mean, on the one hand, we're loosing jobs locally, but on the other hand it's creating thousands of jobs in 3rd world countries. I heard someone say before every one job here is worth three jobs offshore, for the same amount of money. I guess the question is, are companies benefiting by getting more bang for the buck out of employees helping the economy locally, if not the job market, while at the same time helping the economies of other countries by creating jobs? A penny saved is a penny earned, potentially spent locally.
Seriously.
I am so sick of people whining "outsourcing sent my job to India" then walking out the door to climb into their Toyota. I'm sorry that your job has been outsourced, I am. But don't you realize that your decisions sent others to the same fate--where was your sense of moral outrage then?
Our government positions outsourced to other countries, yet the CDC has a policy of buying airline tickets from US companies over foreign airlines.
Our foreign aid also favors purchasing from US companies abroad over local companies. (Who are we really aiding?)
How does your documentary view the hypocricy of outsourcing when it appears to favor US companies, not US employees?
What effect do you feel the outsourcing of professional jobs has on the economy? When manufacturing moves offshore, it's easy to say we'll all be employed with "knowledge jobs", but what happens when the knowledge jobs move offshore? Doesn't this equate to leaving our own highly skilled individuals unemployed/underemployed while we're pumping money into a foriegn economy via payroll? If we oursource our professional jobs, where will stateside consumers get the money to purchase the (now cheaper?) products? Is a "service only" economic model sustainable for the United States?
My question would be... If the US is outsourcing many areas and this in tern is bringing the other countries up in the economic levels, then what can US workers and companies do to stay ahead of the curve and continue to be a worlk leader?
At the rate we are going with outsourcing jobs and having decreasing technical educational levels (studies have shown drops in math in science all the way through college) by the time i am old we will not be tha major world power anymore. Other countries will have taken that from us.
Evolution or ID?
What are the positive and negative effects on the offshore locations?
Are these positive and negative effects distributing themselves evenly through these societies, or is it effecting and effected by existing class and social structures?
There are no trails. There are no trees out here.
As an informed, identity-paranoid IT person:
How will my SSN and other personal information be secured from workers who have zero responsibility to secure it, from a legal perspective?
Offshoring jobs increases the management/labor revenue split.
Isn't offshoring just a way to make the rich richer without regard for the American working class?
Isn't it evidence that the wealthy have no regard for those who must do work to stay alive?
Isn't it an utter repudiation of the widely held belief that concentration of capital is good for all of us?
Isn't it a strong reminder that the only thing that keeps capitalism alive is tolerance of the working man for the profligacy of the non-working class?
I'm no socialist, but I know a revolt when I see one coming. The rich in this country will be lucky if they aren't killed, cooked, and eaten before it's done.
I'd like to know how the executives of these outsourcing companies feel about the level of customer service, and how the quality of these services is going down due to language barriers, and lack of knowledge. David James
- What effect has losing a job to out-sourcing had on you personally, including all aspects -- mental, physical, financially, etc. (This one obviously needs to be asked to someone (or many someones) who have lost a job because it got outsourced.
- Who is supposed to pay for tech workers retraining themselves in new fields? I see so many companies/organizations saying that US tech workers even enjoy retraining for new fields, but they never mention how a newly unemployed (thanks to outsourcing) person is supposed to PAY for that retraining.
Personally I would LOVE to see the people who go on about US tech workers just need to retrain for a new field asked #2. I doubt you'll find many (if any) that will answer on the record though.To the CEOs of the outsourcing companies:
Is the outsourcing really cheaper when the total costs are figured, or is this move a way to show shareholders that you're doing some cutting in the down economy?
Hot Damn! It's the Soggy Bottom Boys!
My question is:
How do you think the rising salaries in India are going to affect the current outsourcing trend?
In Soviet Russia, I ruled you
Ok, so lets say I have a piece of software on the computer sitting under my desk that automagically writes programs. I write detailed design specs, then run a shell script, say ./program.sh . A week or two later, I have a written program. Would anybody object to the creation of such a program? No, of course not.
But if, instead of DELL writing programs, it's 5 guys in Bangalore, and my computer simply acts as a communications point, then suddenly we're getting out the pitchforks and torches? Why the difference? I ask my Economics classes this every course, and I've yet to hear a reasonable answer...it all comes back to "but those are PEOPLE", as if them being Intels, or AMDs, or chickens would make it more acceptable.
Remember the scare about robots in the 1980's? Remember the chicken littles running around warning of the disappearance of jobs in America, as we were all replaced by robots? It's happening again.
PC.
Considering this, can the short-term financial gains really offset the long-term benefits a loyal and motivated workforce provide?
What impact does outsourcing higher paying jobs to a poor country have on that country's economy? For instance when Dell sent support jobs to india, they were paying those support people many many times what most indians make, paying them with money from selling a product most indians could never afford. I would imagine that those with the outsourced jobs would be consuming a lot more than normal, which would drive up prices for things like housing, transportation, and cloths. These higher prices would negatively impact the average person trying to purchase those things, meaning that the average indian is worse off for having these higher paying jobs in their country.
The promise of outshoring has always been cheaper goods, but housing in the Western world and particularly the large tech centers in the US have largely been supported by the higher salaries of white collar workers. Because white collar workers in virtually every profession are now subject to offshoring, what is the projected impact on the housing markets, as well as the financial health of mortgage granters such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? My concern is that the housing market will crash, causing defaults and undermining the overall economy. I would also ask the same question regarding automobile manufacturers' sales, and if outsourcing will do the same for their markets, as well as auto loan granters.
Ugh. White man comes to America, takes away all precious, precious land from Indians.
Now, Indians take away precious, precious income from white man in return.
What goes around comes around, as white man says.
The question I would like most answered is this:
Yes, IT jobs seem to be outsourced to foriegn countries, but specifically what sectors of IT, and for what purpose? Not for what gain, as that is fairly obvious - saving money - but what is the function that these outsourced jobs fill? For call centers, this is fairly obvious, but what about for programming? What kind of programming is being done off-shore? What kind of programming cannot for saftey reasons, intellectual property reasons and other reasons be moved out of the US?
Similarly for other sectors of the IT field - what are the limits, and why?
I am concerned about the off handed, racist remarks I have seen and heard. I would like to see that touched upon. Also, the connection between insurance companies and other investors with grotesquely large amounts of money, investing their funds in businesses thus forcing them to work towards the bottom line and going with the cheapest solution.
I'm on record for saying that working 100, 80, even 60 hours per week regularly is dysfunctional and counterproductive. There are other management fads that are likewise dysfunctional and counterproductive.
To what extent is outsourcing being driven by staff resistance to management demands? What kinds of demands are being resisted?
This question can be put to both the pro and anti sides.
"Beer is proof God loves us and wants us to be happy." -- B. Franklin
We all live on the same planet so there can't be any such thing as outsourcing in a world with trade.
The people of the rich countries hve been happy to eat cheap (though artificially expensive!) food for years.
The short term costs to the newly jobless are high but in a world ecnomony eventually the disparity between one country and another should shrink, unless the disparity is kept open artificially.
Seems not many are complaining that their cheap laptops are built from cheap labour, or cheap shoes. Take a look at the balance of trade for the countries of the world. The US and UK are net importers. China and Taiwan are net exporters. One should consider the long term consequences of this pattern.
We have exploited the disparity for a long long time.
When the pony comes home, pay up, pay up, pay up.
There are places where the networks are not touching,and there are places where they are-Boeing's Lori Gunter
I recently had the task of setting up a printer to work with Quark Xpress. They offer no free support. My employer paid the support cost, and I was put on the phone with a man with a thick Indian accent. It was so bad that I had to ask him to repeat himself at least once every time he spoke. I guess my argument is that people hired to interface with other people should be able to communicate well. It was such a pain in the ass to translate his accent that I decided I would avoid purchasing Quark or recomending Quark (ignoring that some alternatives may be better products). I've heard that Dell computers heard similar complaints to the ones I am making, and brought their tech support back.
I guess my question is: Is it worth the savings to piss your customers off, esp. when they are paying top dollar for good tech support on a per-call basis? On another front, Have these companies had good results overcoming the language barriar (that, according to a programmer friend of mine, ends up causing more problems for a project, resulting in more time cleaning up the mess that misunderstanding brings than executing the project)?
Apparently rates in India are going up with demand, which is entirely logical from a market perspective.
If instead of reducing outsourcing we tried to send more work to India, is it conceivable that we could bring up their salaries to a point where they would no longer compete on price?
Also, can we expect some of those Indian programmers and companies to do more work on fulfilling their own software needs, and stop chasing outsourcing work?
Information: "I want to be anthropomorphized"
I also like the fact that you don't claim to have all the answers in advance. So many reporters and filmakers are too arrogant to ask for assistance. A truly awesome idea to ask everyone you can about this before filming. Nothing pisses me off more than some 60 Minutes piece that (invariably) fails to interview the other side.
Agenda-based "reporters" rarely find the truth. You might find that outsourcing is terrible, but you appear to be objective and thorough, i.e., the opposite of Michael Moore.
My golden question: Ask the labor unions to explain how they can reconcile their push for high wages and benefits which are completely non-competitive with foreign workers, and then have the audacity to complain about outsourcing, rather than take some of the blame (how's that for a leading question?).
I'd also ask the managers of large pension and mutual funds how outsourcing affects their stockholders, and ask them to describe who, exactly, those stockholders are. The answer might surprise most people.
Good luck!
Slashdot "libertarians": Small government for me, big government for those I disagree with. -1, I disagree with you
Something I've been curious about...
I've read in stories about call centers / tech support outsourced to other countries that the employees are often coached on how to pass as Americans.
They work on their accents to appear more American, learn about American sports teams and pop culture in order to be able to make smalltalk about it and appear authentically American, etc.
I'm curious to know the effects this has locally and what the opinions of it are. Do any of the employees have problems with this deceptive practice? Do they feel that it's making some kind of statement about the (theoretical) superiority of American culture that they're forced to learn about it and utilize their knowledge of it instead of that of the culture they grew up with? Are there ever, for example, new baseball fans created by an offshore call center worker's exposure to the sport for his/her job, or is this almost always purely business for them? Does this happen in other industries? Do more traditional members of the local societies object to the poisoning of their children with this American culture?
I think there are a lot of interesting questions to be asked there. It's not involved in any way with the causes or primary effects of outsourcing, but from the perspective of social psychology alone the answers should be fascinating.
The best factual source for these numbers is directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor.
Their March 2004 Report is online, as well as archives of past reports.
Do NOT rely on any "statistics" from politically motivated people or organizations such as Robert Reich, or even any Republicans. Anybody can manipulate and cherry pick numbers to make them fit their political agenda. Use the BLS numbers only!
Unfortunately since almost all documentaries seem to be created for political/social agendas or with biases, I highly doubt that my suggestion will be used. That's why I as a potential film viewer will almost never watch a documentary on current events, regardless of the position or whether I agree with it. If it doesn't have footnotes and references I can check, I don't want to be fooled into thinking something is fact when it is not.
- What is the exact nature of the competitive pressure compelling CEOs to outsource labor?
- (Everyone else is doing it.)
- So these other companies that "did it first" and thereby decreased their costs, passed this on to the consumer in the form of reduced prices?
- (That's how the market works.)
- Uh, huh. Ok, given that the inflation rate has remained pretty much constant, if not growing slightly, during this period of outsourcing, is it fair to say that the trend of outsourcing is, in fact, not driven by market forces?
- (Well, uh, the market is very complex...)
- If a group of companies collectively decide to engage in behavior to the detriment of their consumers (prices haven't dropped) and employees (who are out of work), and this behavior is not market driven, can you explain it in the context of antitrust law?
No further questions, your honor.who are those slashdot people? they swept over like Mongol-Tartars.
Ask them this, "Why aren't high level executive jobs outsourced?"
There are a number of perspectives anyone can take on all of this, some purely economic, more purely political and all sorts of odd mixtures.
The one I'm most interested in is this: what obligation does the government have to its citizens? Should it do whatever it can to facilitate profits for businesses? Should it do whatever it can to maintain/attain a high standard of living for all its citizens. Most communities form out of self-interest. They gain more by being together than apart, and often hard compromises are necessary where individuals must give up something for the common good that they've agreed to support. My feeling is that citizens, government and business have all lost any sense of this commonality of interest. So the first question I would ask is: who gains by offshoring and is that gain for the common good or for a specialized good. My feeling is that it's really for a specialized good, large corporations, but I may be wrong. But I do think this is the most important question to ask.
I would like to know why when employees put 10+ years into a company, and through those employees efforts and creativity the company has prospered, that the company feels no debt to them? And does a company feel like it can despose of them like yesterdays garbage so that the CEO can get a big fat salary?
Where does outsourcing stop? You can basiclly outsource pretty much every aspect of any company to a comparable cheaper solution overseas. However, where are the lines drawn? What is the criteria? Does cheaper automatically call for outsourcing. Is there a formula to this?
PS: I know this is not one question, but they all closely related.
Useless sig.
There's a simpler question: Once you outsource and offshore the bejeezus out of your company, who do you expect your customers to be?
[You have a stable society when some nut guns down a schoolyard and the law doesn't change.]
How about a look at how and why offshoring fails. There was an article about it just today at MSNBC.
Can they still be considered an American company? If MIT outsourced its football team (they do need to), would that team still be considered an MIT football team?
... and ask why it is a priority of the Ehrlich Administration to outsource as much Maryland state government work as possible overseas.
Yup, it's true, and I have the letter from one Boyd K. Rutherford (Secretary of General Services) to prove it.
He will regret ever sending that letter!
I am very small, utmostly microscopic.
On a couple of occasions, my experience, bear in mind we are a talking a VERY limited set of the total here. Two projects out of millions.....
The first 3 or 4 months we got thier A-Team, the code was good quaility, and we had make a few revisions based on them not completely understanding our business requirements. After the A-team left, we got code that was so bad I was working 60+ hr weeks to rewrite/fix the stuff from india. We actually hired more American Programmers to fix the indian stuff. This happened on the next project as well (Different Indian Co.). After that our management went to small XP groups that actully sit right next to the users and everyone has been very happy with the results. For some things like reports, we still outsource those, but for anything very complex our we do our own......
So Long and Thanks for all the Fish.
While the cause and effect are being hotly debated, my question is: "What are the limits of offshoring?"
Is it acceptable to allow external development of national defense software? What about storing and evaluating patient medical information (CT and MRI scans)? What if all networking software, virus detection and operating systems came from overseas. Would/could you trust it?
Foreign governments do not (in fact, should not be expected to) necessarily share US political, societal or economic interests. Too much offshoring can weaken the US software development market measurably. How long would it take to recreate that market in the setting of global conflict? Is the maintainance of a strong software community a matter of national security?
Any sleight-of-hand, sufficiently advanced, is indistinguishable from technology.
Ask this? What are you contigency plans if war breaks out between India and Pak or India and China?
I've heard MBA students spouting something about how all the "work" will be outsourced and people in the US will just "manage" everything. I fail to see how this is a viable model for a country. The foreigners will learn management too, and then those US managers that don't know anything about day to day operations in Singapore will be next to go. How can anyone claim a nation of upper managers is viable with a straight face?
What has the current US administration done to effect outsourcing, and what viable options could they do in the future to fix it?
Supporters of offshoring like to say that "everyone benefits" from the increase in economic efficienty. But the economic theory of trade doesn't say that, it says that overall the world benefits. There are important caveats:
1. The benefit does not have to be shared between the two (or more) countries involved, depending on circumstances.
So, who *is* benefiting from offshoring to India and China?
2. Within a country, the 'plentiful' factors of production usually benefit, but the 'scarce' ones see their share of the pie shrink. If the pie grows enough, the 'scarce' factors see a gain, but it is certainly not a given. [Scarce and plentiful are relative terms. A country can have a high proportion of educated workers, like the U.S., and still have a shortage compared to say, India or China.]
In the U.S., who is going to benefit (what factors are 'plentiful')? Who is going to -- relatively -- lose out? How badly are the 'losers' going to suffer? How large is this group going to be? Should we do anything to help them out?
Is the current situation different from what happened with manufacturing jobs going to Mexico under NAFTA? How, aside from it being white-collar work rather than manual labor?
Is the current situation -- free trade with India and China -- any different from the migration of jobs to 'low-cost' Ireland a few years ago? How?
I've looked at the exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan over the last 6 years and found it to be FLAT (not a single dollar/dime difference) with exception of a handfull of spikes, only to return to the Flatline exchange rate again. There are several sides to this one question:
1) If the exchange rate is FLAT, would you consider offshoring?
2) If the exchange rate was volatile such that your contract price were unreliable by 10%, would you still offshore? - or was this even discussed?
3) Does political instability have an affect on the exchange rate, and does this factor in your decision?
They should comment on the so called "cost of living advantage:"
Q1: If the severe oppression underlying working conditions for the vast majority of Indians was removed, would outsourcing of "high-end" jobs to India cease to be profitable?
Q2: How does the current practice of outsourcing of "high-end" jobs to India help Indians in the ongoing struggle to remove the severe oppression there?
Examples of oppression and their supporting infrastructure:
1) Forced and *uncompensated* displacement of people from rural areas into the cities because of emminent domain siezure by authorities. (Official Indian government figures put the number of people affected by this at around 40Million since 1947. Activists estimate the number is much much higher.)
2) Ubiquitious child labor in the houshold cleaning, and other related service sectors. No real enforcement against it.
3) Child slavery and bonded labor (think "indentured servitude" from your history classes, but much worse.) affecting millions in rural areas. Sporadic enforcement against it.
4) Open physical and verbal brutality of authorities (police, guards, and even employers) towards the poor to keep them obedient and compliant. Personal Note: once on a trip to India, I saw a policeman beat a little beggar kid about 3 hours after my plane touched down. I see examples of stuff like this on every trip to India. I have even heard many well-to-do folks talk openly about how "this is all those kind of people can understand."
5) Right to education for everyone exists on paper only. Many areas have no functioning public school or that school has been "captured" by a subsection of the community with others excluded by overt and implicit discrimination.
6) No democracy within political parties. The voter has no say as to whom will run for a seat on behalf of any given party. (e.g. No caucuses or primaries of any kind.) Rules *preventing* elected members of parliament from voting their conscience on issues affecting their locality.
7) No freedom of information act or sunshine laws. (Even Ashcroft has to obey at least some FOI requests.) Example of a resulting state secret: How much money was spent on the goverment support of parochial (Christian and Muslim) schools as compared to the money spent on public schools open to all?
8) No right to a speedy trial by a jury of peers. Say what you will about the OJ case, etc., participation in jury trials is a powerful way in which the public gets some control over their own destiny by being a part of the justice system. It is a lot harder to corrupt 12 randomly chosen jurors with other jobs than it is to get at one judge who you can count on for repeat business.
The following question is directed to all the various parties, such as economists, CEOs, CIO/CTOs, workers both USA and foreign, President G. W. Bush, and whoever else you can reach.
Please name, from your point of view, who are the top five short term beneficiaries of outsourcing practice?
Please, in your answer do not speak of long term, because I think we have all heard the rosy long term outlook already (and I think it is safe to say that few of us are buying it). Yes, I am biased, but so are we all.
1. CEO's tend to make the argument that they need to outsource in order to compete with their competitors who are outsourcing. (sounds an awful lot like an argument between kids on the playground - "he's doing it too!" - where nobody wants to take responsibility). Given that CEO salaries run into the $millions (typically 20 to 40X the pay of their average employees) why don't CEOs consider cutting their own salaries in an effort to remain competitive?
2. Many unemployed and about-to-be-unemployed US engineers would be happy to work for less money (within reason)in order to keep their jobs, however when this is suggested to companies the companies usually choose to go with outsourcing. If an engineer is willing to take a 30 - 40% pay cut to save his/her job, why isn't this offer taken seriously by most companies?
3. (related to 2) It's quite clear that if we want to continue working in the engineering fields in America that we'll either have to become much more productive (2 - 3X) or we'll have to accept much lower wages (or a combination of the two). By some measurements we're already much more productive than our overseas counterparts by virtue of the fact that we have more experience with real projects, so it all comes down to money. What can American engineers do to lower their cost of living in order to try to compete with 3rd world salaries?
4. Most offshoring advocates say that we need to just be patient as we await the 'Next big thing (TM)' that will be invented in America (they have a lot of faith). Any idea what the 'Next bit thing' will be and what do we do in the meantime?
5. (related to 4) In the software arena, most of the offshoring advocates say that US developers need to 'move up the foodchain' into project management. Given that you never need anywhere near as many managers as you do managees, what how will most US developers 'move up the food chain'? (perhaps they'll become hunters)
6. (related to 5) What if you'd much rather develop code than manage projects?
7. For outsourcing advocates: Why not make the argument that we should outsource every possible US job to cheaper, lower labor-cost countries and then bring in 'guest-workers' to fill the positions that can't practically be outsourced? It seems that the outsourcing advocates would find this a favorable plan since there would be so much potential money savings. If money savings is the primary economic motivator then this seems like a logical plan, however, what do we do with the millions of US workers that would be put out of work in this scenario?
Commentary: The outsourcing advocates take a very narrow view of economics. To them cost-cutting is the primary motivation for doing anything - "if it'll save a buck, then do it" is their motto. However, it isn't clear that the money savings from outsourcing white collar jobs are actually going to be able to counter-ballance the economic devestation brought on by widespread offshoring. So what if US corporations suddenly become wildly profitable (for a quarter or two) while millions of workers are put out of work. Eventually those millions of unemployed workers won't have the money to buy the products of the wildly profitable corporations and profits will go down. I'd rather see corporations break even while providing good jobs to millions, than see them be wildly profitable but providing no jobs to US workers. Oh, and if millions are unemployed, who is going to pay the taxes to support the schools that we supposedly need to train workers for the 'jobs of the future'?
Hollywood has been outsourcing for years. Examples include The Lord of the Rings triology (almost entirely outsourced to New Zealand), and dozens of films where the city of Vancouver, British Columbia is passed off as various cities in the United States, all to avoid labor costs and union scale issues. For whatever reason, the entertainment industry seems immune from the big media "outsourcing" scrutiny placed on so many other industries. C-Diddy
"Me fail English? That's unpossible." - Ralph
You are a CEO.
I would *love* to be discriminated against as most CEO's are.
emt 377 emt 4
As someone within a company that is slowly shifting to offshore IT workers (to complement the offshore manufacturing workers who make almost all of the products sold in our stores) I can tell you this is 100% crap. Offshoring is not about moving jobs to more knowledgable workers, it is about moving jobs to cheaper workers. When you need a horde for a particular project or task, you always go with the lower cost solution. Remember, quantity of graduates says absolutely nothing about the quality of such graduates.
Oddly enough, we've had to pull back in a few cases where the offshore workers knowledge and experience weren't up to the tasks (fairly simple DBA maintenance support). It seems that the sharp DBA we were shown and worked with at the start of the engagement, was replaced with a week of the start by a trainee of limited language skills. It kind of makes you think that maybe the whole offshoring thing is just some scam to rake in the bucks from gullible idiots.
Er, no, that's no the way it works.
Yes, moving a car factory to El Salvador will cost some US jobs in the short term. But no, there will be a price drop (or a price/performance improvement) in cars available in the USA. There is the idea floating around that outsourcing means that companies just keep the profits, and that money just vanishes from the economies somehow. However, in a competitive market like cars, some company is always willing to trade lower profits for increased market share. This can take the form of selling the same car for less, or more car for the same price. But this puts pressure on everyone else to lower prices.
For example, compare how much car you can get for 1/4th of the median family income today compared to a few decades ago. A 2004 Civic is a vastly better car than anything one could buy in 1972.
And look at how much better US made cars got in the decade after the Japanese import boom started. While it might have been painful for the workers in Detroit, for the vastly greater number of US car drivers, imports and outsourcing have been a HUGE gain.
The thing about free trade is that the pain is concentrated, but the benefits are diffuse. But the aggregate benefits always (and yes, I mean ALWAYS - I don't know of a single counterexample in the last few thousand years) outweigh the aggregate losses.
The wage differential between the USA and India is a reflection of our greater wealth and productivity, not a threat to our wealth and productivity.
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I'd ask political economists whether the improved overall market efficiencies associated with free and unrestrained trade will automatically
Whether there are indications of what degree of wealth segregation might be associated with violent upheaval in regimes (China) that do not allow for easy change.
Whether democracies or republics can be counted on to provide peaceful transitions when such imbalances become too extreme.
Whether democracies can be counted upon to elect efficient economic models, or whether democracies will tend to choose inefficient economic models that are "popular".
[Empirical evidence of failed regimes would illuminating.]
"Provided by the management for your protection."
Well, unskilled labor manufacturing is leaving in droves, and has been for decades. This is probably a good thing in the long term - you want pollution producing industries here?
The way American companies compete against foreign companies is the same way we have for centuries - innovation and productivity. Even though Ford could build a car plant in Mongolia and pay 1% of UAW wages, they'd lose their shirt. Shipping costs to consumers and from suppliers, lack of a trained labor force, etcetera would cost them much more than they'd save.
Now, making plastic toys? Yeah, that's in China now, for the reasons you cite. But how is that a bad thing? Have you SEEN the toys you can buy for $20 now? Unbelievable! What do you think it'd cost to build, say, a Hoberman Sphere with US labor? How many fewer would get sold at that price. Not a lot of US jobs saved, but Hoberman is a lot poorer. And he lives in the USA.
As for environmental protections, we certainly need better global environmental controls. But trade isn't the problem or the solution there. Even if we had complete trade barriers, greenhouse gasses don't know borders.
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I'd like to see some honest discussion of the deeper problem, which is that corporations are artificial constructs that operate outside the control of individual nations or investors/board members, and do not have as their goal the betterment of society or the individual. Rather they exist specifically to concentrate as much wealth as possible in the hands of as few people as possible. It's therefore not surprising that these creations move labor to where the cost is lower.
Also, it's inarguable, if not well-known, that neoclassical economics is fatally flawed and does not apply to the current world economy. So most of the pundits and economists arguing about how great NAFTA etc. are for everyone have no idea what they are talking about, despite their training. Neoclassical economics is based on many false assumptions, and "proofs" of the benefits of unbridled international capitalism are therefore wrong. Letting corporations do whatever they want is just as bad as letting the pre-breakup Soviet government do whatever it wanted.
For that matter, I'm curious: Why are people so deeply distrustful of "big government", but willing to accept an unlimited amount of abuse from private industry? It's just the same problem with a different name.
Cheers,
freecell_wizard
Question 1: Retrain in what? Will the new jobs created by trading our jobs with India be created here?
During the 1980s, blue-collar manufacturing workers whose jobs were offshored were told to retrain in some other area, particularly knowledge jobs. Some did, most others moved into other blue-collar jobs such as construction, automobile repair, and other such jobs which aren't so easily offshorable.
Today, the message from economists and CEOs is the same: retrain in some other field. We know that jobs in programming, software-engineering, and most other fields of engineering (electrical, mechanical, chemical, etc.) are being offshored.
So what exactly does one retrain in? Let's look at the options:
* Biotech -- is there any reason that new biotech jobs can't be created overseas instead?
* Nanotech -- is there any reason that new nanotech jobs can't be created overseas instead?
* Medicine -- oooh, wait, radiology is already being offshored, and so are surgical jobs
Note that those are all technology-oriented jobs which do not require one's presence. What technology-oriented jobs require one's presence then?
* Auto mechanic -- for the few geeks who can tolerate working outdoors, with their hands, getting dirty, etc.
* IT technician -- the basically blue-collar guys who schlep computers around, run cables, and replace bad hardware
* Nuclear engineer -- because It Is Stupid to not have people on-site to prevent a nuclear plant from going boom in the event of an emergency
So, can the hundreds of thousands of software geeks who have had their jobs offshored retrain to be auto mechanics? Even if they wanted to, I doubt they could, and as cars become increasingly-reliable, demand for those jobs will decrease. IT technicians? We have a glut of them as it is. Nuclear engineers? This nation is too scared of nuclear power (thanks to Chernobyl and Three-Mile Island) for there to be much of a market for nuclear power.
So, what do we do? Just what jobs are there beyond "knowledge" jobs? If you assume that international trade (and preferably free trade) is a good thing -- as I do, due to comparative advantage -- then you must admit that many of these jobs can go overseas now thanks to the Internet's ability to send data worldwide at dirt-cheap prices.
Now, the standard economist's response to that is that "new jobs will be created as a result of trade." On the face of things, this is true.
But return to the fact that the Internet makes all jobs which deal primarily with information (instead of people) offshorable. Given that fact, what reason is there that the new jobs -- which WILL be created, just as economists tell you -- won't be created overseas, but will be created here in America? Again, is there any reason the new jobs -- which we can reasonably expect to see in biotech and nanotech -- won't simply skip the step of being created in America and instead get created in India first?
I wrote an email to one of my economics professors asking that question (and many others) recently. His response? "Gee, you know that's what interests me about economics so much - why do these things happen?" But he never really answered the question.
If a college professor in Econ. doesn't know the answer, who does?
Question 2: Education.
Often the advice to unemployed IT geeks is to retrain. Retraining requires education. Education requires years of time and money.
Simple question: Where does an unemployed IT geek *get* that money to retrain with, given the rapidly-rising costs of a college education?
Moreover, how can America -- which largely does not subsidize post-secondary education -- compete with foreign nations which do subsidize post-secondary education?
So long as this educational barrier-
Is Capitalism Good for the Poor?
I can remember a few weeks ago - and this is purely anecdotal on my part - watching CNBC on the TV in the Cafeteria at work, and they were interviewing a couple of stock analysts about the "recovery" and offshoring labor, and one of the guys made a comment that made everyone in the room sort of gasp.
He said, paraphrasing, "America, which for the last fifty years or so has been consuming vastly greater amounts of resources than they produce, has had an artificially high standard of living. Its going to be painful until the American lifestyle comes more in line with the rest of the world."
Just thought I would relate that observation. It seemed appropriate when the topic of outsourcing and offshoring comes up. You can take it as either playing devil's advocate, or something to get you motivated to ensure that it doesn't happen.
What?
I am curious if, for instance, Indian people who work for an American (or other country) corporation are concerned that as their wages increase their jobs will be moved to another country with even cheaper wages.
It seems that a vast majority of American corporations that outsource their IT work send it to India. Lately there appears to be a shift to the Philippines, especially for help desk related positions. Do Indian employees share the same fears some Americans do that there jobs too will be sent overseas to another country?
Well, in many senses, especially the Marxist, the working class is largely vanishing as a class in the USA. The grandchildren of post-WWII auto workers go to college now, and work in service industries. Really, if you did a poll, how many people in the US call themselves "Working Class?" And how many of those are really college graduates slumming for a couple of years? Social mobility really keeps traditional class boundaries from being one of the major divides in US politics today. In US history racial and cultural issues have been much more divisive and persistent.
Unionized workers think of themselves as working people, but middle class. Poverty is a different issue. But the poor mainly hope to not be poor, and don't have a lot of personal allegiance to the class of the poverty-stricken.
Also, I don't think it is a widely held view that the concentration of capital is good for all of us. This is why most honest economists like high inheritance taxes, to prevent multiple generation accumulation of wealth.
In fact, capital is pretty widely distributed these days, with 401(k)'s, pension plans, and home equity.
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Just how outsourcing one of the highest-margin industries to another country and depleting hi-tech talent pool that takes decades (and shitloads of money) to rebuild helps the US economy.
It'd be also cool to hear someone from Federal Reserve System explain how long does this country expect to live in prosperity by simply exporting national debt while not manufacturing the actual _stuff_ (be it IP, goods, natural resources, etc.). There's gotta be a breaking point to this trend.
In order to provide a balanced documentary, please examine the foreign companies that are "in-sourcing" labor -- shifting labor from overseas into the United States.
I just heard on the radio (no source mentioned) that last quarter the number of in-sourced jobs was larger than the number of out-sourced jobs.
Further, please examine the ramifications of protectionist policies, and ask economists about their long term ramifications. There is way too much "outsourcing is evil" or "outsourcing is great" without balance or attribution.
Since NAFTA's initial rush, there are reports of manufacturing jobs coming BACK from Mexico. That "giant sucking sound" that Perot used to describe maquilladora companies running for the Mexican border never really materialized in the volume he thought it would. Also, several of those factories are coming back, as they get better productivity from USians.
One function of outsourcing is that the labor is cheaper, which shows up quickly on the company balance sheet. If revenue is stable, and costs go down, profit goes up. What doesn't show up quickly is ineffeciency. e.g. Time lost due to cultural differences, time spent rewriting poor code, the cost of having to negotiate every change request, and so on. While these costs exist for locally sourced companies, I'd argue they're probably lower.
It's not strictly the price of the labor that's at issue, it's performance per dollar spent. Given the economic mess, it's all about the price of the labor right now, but the efficiency argument will start creeping back in over time.
The multiplier is the key here. Does the money just go back into company coffers, or is it actually distributed?
If it's held as cash by the company, then its effect is negligible, except for the value of the company's equity. It's not used to buy things in the local market, which contributes to the bottom line (and profits, and eventually more purchases) of the various merchants, and so on.
If it's distributed as dividends, is that money used to buy goods in the local market, or reinvested? I would suggest that the supplyside economic model can be criticized here, as dividends paid to stockholders at large might tend to be reinvested (sometimes automatically, sometimes not), and the economic multiplier for that cash is very, very small.
If it had actually been used to pay a local programmer, who was using it to live, then the majority of the money is probably circulating freely, having been spent with merchants.
We can get into issues with the WalMartization of the planet here, but let's not.
Again, this is arguable. Sure, we're helping them in the short term, but we've all heard stories of how the Indian outsources are getting undercut by the Czechs, or the Philipinos, or the Malaysians, or whomever.
I'm not sure, but I think this is the core of the globalist "race to the bottom" argument. If you assume that the company only cares about workers/$, then it would be logical for the jobs to drift towards the cheapest labor. Problem is, the cheapest country for labor changes periodically, and suddenly you have several countries vying for the lowest price. Does this unstable economic injection actually help their economy in the long run? Tough call.
ceci n'est pas un sig.
A common retort by "them" when faced with the reality that offshoring causes the US to lose jobs overseas, is that jobs are created in the US to support and/or augment those jobs that went overseas.
I call BS on that, and here is the question to ask if someone trys to use that line on you:
"What jobs, specifically, are created by sending other jobs overseas? Wouldn't those jobs have to exist anyway, if the parent job in question were not sent overseas?"
And finally, lets get some specifics here. Those that try to rebut the facts of offshoring never speak in specifics. Here is a specific for you:
At my company, about 50 helpdesk style jobs, level 1 class, were sent to Hydrabad India. How do those jobs leaving create jobs here? Level 2 does exist here, but if the level 1 jobs were here, you know what? The level 2 would still have to be here.
Here is another question:
"Why isn't it illegal to import people from India on 12 month visa to fill positions that get 400-500 resumes from local people, when they are posted according to US law? You cannot tell me that there isn't qualified NT admins in ANY local area, and yet these positions have imported labor."
And here is another specific:
My company has over 150 imported Indians that fill all sorts of mundane IT jobs. After 12 months, they go away and are replaced by another cog in the offshoring machine. How is this creating jobs here? The managers/architects that supervise these people? Guess what, the supervisors/architects would have to exist anyway if Americans had these jobs.
And that is the part that seems totally illegal... importing people on visa to fill positions so the company doesn't have to pay local pay. Offshoring is one thing, but seemingly breaking the spirit of the visa rules for techincal people to fill positions that local people would LOVE to have. I know so many out of work, or working other random jobs they COULD get, that are more than qualified.
And this is the largest company in the world I am talking about here, not some fly-by-night gig.
But Americans (and now even Brits) have been so propagandized, it seems most of them can even think straight when it comes to this kind of subject.
eat shiat and bark at the moon
I have been reading for several years now that the middle class has been flat in pay and job growth since the 70's. Not only that but the low-end middle has even seen negative numbers. If my history is correct this coincides with the beginning of significant outsourcing by industry. Does this correlate? And if it does does that mean that the middle class and lower economic folk in America can look forward to another 30 years of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer?
It is never a good thing for any country to lose its middle class.
You are essentially saying that manufacturing costs have no impact on consumer prices. To be consistent you would have to claim that consumer prices would not rise if manufacturing costs increased. You could disprove that just looking at manufacturing costs and consumer prices for pretty much any good, and observe at the canny resemblance. But I'll try with a concrete math example.
Let's say Volvo sells 100.000 cars a year for $30k that they spend $25k to manufacture. That brings in $500M. They could lower the price to 29k and sell 120.000 cars and make $480M, or they could raise the price to $31k, sell 80.000 cars and make $480M. Clearly they picked the selling price $30k to maximize their profit.
Now let's say they figure out a way to make the cars for $23k. Selling 100.000 cars will now bring in $700M. But selling 120.000 cars for $29k will make $720M. So they lower the price. It's really quite simple if you look at it the right way.
The common misunderstanding here is that people think Volvo won't pass on their savings since they're greedy bastards. In actual fact, they will pass on their savings because they are greedy bastards, and will make more profit doing so!
No, there won't be a price drop. Prices are established by the market, not arbitrarily set by the manufacturer. A Ford Focus will cost as much as people are willing to pay for it, given demand and supply. Moving the plant to El Salvador changes neither supply nor demand. You aren't opening a new consumer base, and you aren't getting yourself a way to fulfill previously unfilled demand. It only lowers the price of making the good, thus increasing the profit margin.
Put in those terms, prices for a single manufacturers goods are arbitrarily set by it. How much it will sell at that price is determined by the market. That is how lowering costs does increase supply at a certain price.
Your argument has only one flaw, if we outsource all the unskilled labor (and don't forget, call centers count in that bracket), where do the unskilled in the US go? Sure we can say we'll train them up, but there is a certain percentage of the population that does not have the capacity to do highly skilled jobs.
/. crowd tends to be on the upper end of the bell curve of intelligence, it is a curve and there is a low end, which most people here seem to forget...
So what then? Do we create a welfare state where those who no longer can work are supported by those of us who do (at least until our jobs get shipped as well)? It's a nice idea to think you can do away with the unskilled working class, or somehow transform them in to a highly skilled work force. The fact of the matter is that while most of the
1. If outsourcing from California to India is "greedy" or otherwise morally wrong in some way, then what about outsourcing from California to, say, Alabama?
2. Do people in India or China have less right to make a living and feed their families than Americans do?
3. In a business, does management have a duty to artificially maintain relatively high wages in the US for equivalent work? Is that a higher duty than their duty to the shareholders?
4. What duty do the workers owe management in return?
5. Would you support relaxed regulations and tax cuts to help bring the cost of US labor down closer to that of foreign labor?
6. Which world leader is more just: George Bush or Fidel Castro. (This is just to determine who you're talking to.)
Why are call center workers who handle the private information of US citizens (banks, credit cards, etc) in foreign countries trained to sound like Americans? If outsourcing is so great, why are foreign workers forced to pretend that they are American?
Why are US workers forced to train their replacements, all the while being told that their job is being eliminated because it's the only way for the company to remain profitable?
Is it moral to outsource government services such as upgrading the system that provides aid to unemployed workers or customer service to food stamp receipients to workers who make one fourth of what an American worker would make?
Why are groups that are obviously lobbying groups for corporate interests being allowed to dictate our nation's policy on everything IT?
What effect does outsourcing have on innovation? The skilled workers in the US are not allowed to compete for jobs because American workers are too costly. The marginally skilled workers in countries where costs are lower are making the same types of technical mistakes that US workers made years ago. If outsourcing had been done for reasons other than pure price, would technology be on a different level now?
Why isn't the connection between the misuse of H1B and L1 visas and business access to cheap labor in other countries ever discussed?
With all the talk about how jobs go overseas, most Americans equate offshoring to job losses. No such documentary could be complete without mentioning that on balance, foreign companies created 6.4 million jobs in the US. Exports of US goods to foreign countries made by foreign owned businesses comprise 22% of all us exports. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has increased by $82 Bn USD in FY2003, creating 400,000 new jobs. The weak US Dollar combined with our lower taxes is encouraging economic growth so much that companies like Honda and Toyota now make cars for the US market in California and Tennessee - NOT Japan. The EU's OECD is threatening trade sanctions, claiming our lower costs of doing business are a "tax subsidy" (i.e., not overtaxing business is the same as paying their taxes for them...wonderful circular logic).
Source: http://www.ofii.org/insourcing/
Has no one at Slashdot read David Ricardo?
Well, probably not.
People who can't do highly skilled jobs will do unskilled jobs. Pump gas, work on a farm, sort recycling. Or train them. Life as an unskilled laborer in a 21st century first world nation isn't great, but it's a lot better than as an unskilled laborer in the 3rd world.
Now, as a society, we need to be working hard at reducing the number of people we have who can't do skilled jobs. And that's working to some degree - how many US Citizens are doing migrant farm labor these days? Probably our biggest failure as a nation is not fully funding schools and enrichment programs in poor areas. Even if conservatives want to blame the poor for being poor, it certainly isn't their kids fault.
But anyway, unskilled labor has been around forever, and most of the jobs they did a long time ago have gone away, and new jobs always show up. Most unskilled workers were farm labor a century ago.
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Productivity measured in value added per hour is going up as well. It isn't all about overtime (and hours worked are actually going down a bit in the long term).
If you work in IT, you KNOW you get a lot more done than 10 years ago. Sure, you might not feel relatively more productive since everyone around you is also having the same gains. But think of your current big project. How would you have done it a decade ago?
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There are NO RESTRICTIONS on the L1 visas as far as making sure that there is not a qualified American to do the job. There is NO WAGE REQUIREMENT, so it may be these people are working in the US and making Indian wages.
These visas are snapped up by the big Indian consulting companies as a way to market their cheap labor in the US.
For fun, notice the age and sexes of these imported workers. The big Indian consulting firms that import labor are NOT bound to US hiring laws, and frequently advertise age limits in the job postings in India for these positions.
Some things I'd like to see investigated (I wouldn't expect straight answers to these questions):
1. The usual reason given for outsourcing is that it's cheaper. What about other reasons? Freedom from Government regulation? Freedom from stockholder/top management oversight? Financial shennagians?
2. In the manufacturing world, we've seen outsourcing start with assembly-line work and end up with essentially the entire operation overseas. (Think of home entertainment.) How high up the corporate ladder will the current outsourcing trend go? Could you, for example, run an entire bank branch (not just tellers) from India? Newspaper back office? Stock brokerage? Law office?
3. What is happening to the Indian outsourcing firms as even cheaper countries (Russia, Ukraine) get into the act?
4. Freedom from Government interference is one advantage given for outsourcing. What about the downside? Organized crime? Political corruption/extortion? (How do you *know* that your shiny new system doesn't have a backdoor, now that you've fired all the engineers?)
Welcome to the Turing Tarpit, where everything is possible but nothing interesting is easy.
Manufacturing jobs have been "outsourced" overseas for a very long time. One could say that outsourcing has simply been moving steadily along a continuum from less-skilled to more-skilled jobs (i.e., less-well-paid to more-well-paid). Perhaps this latest wave of concern is not the result of a fundamental change in outsourcing, but is instead just a symptom of its arrival at a particular skill/pay/pain threshold.
If we're simply experiencing a natural extrapolation of the outsourcing trend, should we react to it any differently than we reacted to the loss of our manufacturing jobs (as painful as that was)? Is there truly a need for any more action/legislation here than we thought we needed when we were losing our steel industry?
Ok... So we are in a transition period. NAFTA / Outsourcing is the wave of the future. But is any CEO or Economist looking at the long term?
Outsourcing makes sense in the short-term 3-5 years. But what about the long term? After the transition?
If you outsource manufacturing and assembly don't you cut out a potential resource? New talent? If someone doesn't have the hard knocks of manufacturing or assembling without an International Airline ticket and a stipend what will happen to *OUR* innovation?
I never hear an innovator say "Thanks to my Harvard Degree I was able to design the new next clothing fad." I tend to hear of someone who worked hands on then found a niche that wasn't being covered and they went for it. If you outsource the lower industries you outsource our innovation. Does this concern anyone else but me? And if so, what is the answer? Strictly for American Defense do you want all of our clothes manufacturing being handled outside of the United States? Would that be our new ration item if we were forced to go to war?
I'm for the long term. But I'd like to know what strategically American Business Leaders want that to be. Right now all I see is a bleeding out of our dollars to other countries with economists worried about deflation. And personally I don't think Business Leaders are knowledgeable or equipped, this is where government should step in and slow the transition for our own stability.
I've asked alot of questions for thought fodder but this is my A#1.
What would 5 conceptual business be in 20 years, and what are supposed to do to get there?
Myself, I think technical communes or cooperatives are the answer but... Right now I only see my class being asked to do the cooperating while the upper 10% are whooping it up overseas. I spent 15 years of my professional life climbing the ladder while working under executives that never understood how to turn on their computer. Now that I have the skills they've outsourced overseas.
I never got my invite to the Hilton B-Day party, did you? Perhaps a cookout hosted by HP and Carly? Naw, she was so vindictive about HP Site Boise not being a cheerleader squad in her battle with HP's Heirs that she's cutting Boise (and other domestic sites I'm sure) whenever she can.
I don't like revolution, but I get the impression the upper CEO's are dolling out the economic equivalent of let them eat cake... More accurately, buy my stuff at inflated stupid rates... Please tell me what I'm not seeing!!!!
"Don't fear death... fear not living..." -me
There has never been long-term unemployment of skilled workers in this country since the Depression, even though past rounds of outsourcing involved more jobs than are going away today. A dynamic economy makes jobs for everyone who can do good work, even if it isn't in the field they imagined. I don't think outsourcing is the major factor in any decline in IT employment - the total number of foreign workers doing outsourced IT work isn't high enough. Bear in mind there are far more many trained ID professionals in the USA than in India, even though their population is much higher.
I don't see anything about our current economy that suggests that something has fundamentally changed to cause this to be different.
I know lots of engineers, and while not all of them are working their dream jobs, all of them are working in positions where they're applying their technical skills.
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Well, obviously most professional jobs WON'T go overseas. And those that do will get replaced by other jobs in new sectors. Really, what's happening today isn't any more disruptive than say, the transition from a farming to industrial economy, or from industrial to services.
The classic example is buggy-whip makers. Big industry before cars. Went away fast and hard. Sucked for most whip-making companies, but the workers found new jobs.
What's happening right now is companies are taking advantage of a wage differential caused by some formerly closed economies that are opening up, which is suppressing wages relative to education/talent in those countries.
But wages are going up in India faster than they're going down in the USA. Since people don't actually refuse to work for decades instead of taking jobs at a lower rate of pay, we'll see some downward pressure on IT salaries in some sectors. This is appropriate - salaries were getting way too high relative to education required in some sectors. There isn't any good reason why average programmers a few years out of school should make more than doctors a few years out of medical school, which had been happening.
So, every year, Indian programmers will make more and US programmers less, in relative terms, until some kind of equilibrium is hit where productivity per dollar is the same. I expect that US programmers will still get paid more, due to greater productivity. And while wages in some sectors might go down, this will be more than balanced out by a lower cost of goods and services across the economy.
So we won't be poorer in any meaningful sense. Sure, the USA won't be making 20x per capita as India and China do anymore, but that's fine. We'll still be richer than we are today, even if others are even richer than they used to be on a percentage basis.
I suppose the USA will feel less relatively rich compared to the rest of the world, but that's a good thing, right?
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You have hit the nail on the head.
...)
The "Walmart" economy is not a self-sustaining
economy, because of the shrinking middle class.
This model only works for 60 - 70 percent of
the inverted bell curve of declining purchasing
power, after which it will collapse.
Only so many people can work in the trades
and professions that don't get out-sourced.
The "cream" of these don't shop at Walmart,
anyway.
As more illegal aliens enter this country
(which has increased by 40% since 9/11/01),
even many of the professional trades jobs
will be lost to those willing to work even
more cheaply here.
The three tiered social strata that was
America will melt away into a two tiered
strata that will more closely resemble
Europe in the Middle Ages: the very small
and powerful privledged class, and the
peons.
The disparity of income between the rich
and the middle class in America has widened
significantly since the 1970's. If you
compare the CEO salary and perks in today's
economy between the EU, Japan, and America,
the American CEO's compensation is obscenely
greater.
Only when shareholders insist on out-sourcing
the American corporate elite will the trend
moderate.
IP protection, job conservation, and the preservation of societal values must be
enforced through legal governmental means,
since the corporate fatcats refuse to consider
these factors. NAFTA is flawed (as well as
structural problems in the WTO), because the
regional/national societal values are not
part of the equation of trade equality.
If working conditions, hours of labor, pay
scale, ability to organize, health care,
and environmental issues were factored into
all trade negotiations, the "playing field"
would be much more level.
(Just my depreciated $00.02 worth