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Geeks and Poker?
Best ID Ever! asks: "Poker, a fascinating intersection of math, game theory, and observation of human behavior, is currently exploding in popularity due to televised high-stakes tournaments such as the World Poker Tour and Binion's 2003 World Series of Poker. Many of today's top professional players have nerdly roots such as Mathematicians, chess prodigies, or backgammon champions. A few pros, including 2000 champion Chris Ferguson, even used to play poker in the IRC poker community. This year's World Series final event, which began Saturday and lasts through the week, drew 2600 participants, more than three times the number of participants in 2003. How many Slashdot readers play poker, and what do you think of Poker's upswing?"
I've left to find myself. If you happen to see me, please, keep me there until I return.
Poker, Blackjack or other such games are the only sort of gambling I would be remotely willing to participate in because it involves much more than straight chance as involved in slots, roulette or craps. Sure statistics come into play, but nothing forces the stats to hold consistently.
Even if I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree. -Martin Luther
Actually, I'm not really THAT great, but the I do enjoy game theory, as it was my emphasis in my Math degree, so Poker comes fairly naturally to me.
I love its popularity. The more that play, the more I can win!
How many Slashdot readers play poker
All those who aren't posting anymore, because they're too skint to pay the ISP bill now...
I used to play poker but, I played 1 to many times where I lost my pants literally and gave up.
Evolution or ID?
Poker is often counted as "gambling" but to me it's precisely because it's not gambling but rather a game of skill that it's interesting. It's a zero sum game with some randomness so that you need to play for a little while to really see the better player emerge.
The android Data, one of the most popular characters in TNG amongst geeks, is a fanatic poker player. Coincidence? I don't think so.
M.I.T. geeks vs Vegas.
True story.
An amazing read.
La via sola al paradiso incommincia nel inferno
I've never understoood the appeal of standing in front of a video poker terminal*, feeding in cash and pushing the little buttons, when I know that the odds are against me. But I have spent many unproductive hours with handheld poker games, and was inspired to come up with a system to lose less often. At the risk of slashdotting my new host, here's my geeky take on How to Lose Less at Video Poker.
It got mixed reviews a year or so ago when the topic came up in a previous Slashdot story, but it still seems to hold up for me -- at least, when there's no real money involved. The main criticism, IIRC, was that my method is very conservative, reducing the chances of a Big Win. Since I'm not the type to plug fifty bucks into a machine in hopes of a Big Win, I'm still happy with the method as it stands, but I'm receptive to comments.
I was hoping to try it out on a trip to Oklahoma, but when I stopped in the so-called Indian Casino in Okmulgee, I found nothing but a bingo parlor (with touch-screen monitors in place of ink daubers) and a couple hundred video 8-liners. Not one real video poker machine to try my luck. I'll have to hit the truck stop in Louisiana again... last time I was there, I played two 25c hands, lost one, won 50c on the other, and cashed out.
* Spending several hours plugging quarters into Pac-Man, however, is another thing entirely.
Stressed? Me? Of course not. Stress is what a rubber band feels before it breaks, silly.
But seriously, that's what they play at the world poker tour and that's all me and my friends play. It takes a lot of strategy, and it's also a lot of fun.
I just started a new position a few weeks ago. Up until recently, we would play Texas Holdem at lunch. I found it was a great opportunity to get to know my colleagues quickly and integrate myself as a memeber of the team.
Unfortunately, it also lead to extended lunch breaks, so the poker I'm disappointed to say, has ended. But the benefits of playing still remain.
In C++, friends can touch each others private parts.
...drew 2600 participants... :)
Last I checked most of the folks in 2600 were pretty sharp!
I'm sure there are a lot of /.ers who play poker. They all downloaded that free strip poker and played for hours to win.
Or, was that just me
Evolution or ID?
I find that the quality of my poker face decreases when I lose a lot of hands in poker-for-drinks. This further leads to more drinking, which results in an even worse poker face....
SmashTech - No smashing of tech involved
Some wise poker advise: "If you don't know who's the sucker at the table, it's you."
This reminds me of a certain Car Talk Puzzler.
there's an excellent article on how poker works at howstuffworks available through the following URL: http://www.howstuffworks.com/poker.htm.
check it out!
Poker? Hell, I don't even know her!
Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
I actually got mine from Ebay. I got 500 composite 11.5g Chips, that were hotstamped for about $50 then 20 for shipping.
I would really check ebay, anyone with a high seller rating would be fine. And I am completly happy with my chips. Especially because 500 hotstamped chips should have been $200+
I put the m in oop.
Poker? I hardly even know her!
Many of today's top professional players have nerdly roots such as Mathematicians, chess prodigies, or backgammon champions.
What I love about Poker (and why I am happy it is gaining in popularity) is simply the "reality" of it in that you have real cards, real chips and potentially even real money in your hands. I am contrasting this to the computerized or synthetic elements of online poker or poker video games.
I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. -- Hunter S. Thompson
Okay, at the time he was what he defined as a looser too - but he recognised this and "got out" as it were. In the end, it would turn into an 8-24hr a day job
btw, Rounders is probably the best movie I've seen about Poker.
Avi Freedman, Chief Network Scientist for Akamai, just won $90,000 in the 2004 WSOP.
.@.
I've been playing poker for a number of years, and study the game online in twoplustwo.com - where I post as whiskeytown - I also play quite a bit online.
:)
There are some mathheads who are World Class Players...Chris Ferguson is one - a second class of character is the newbie who watches too much WPT/WSOP and thinks he should push all in with 88 - these guys sorta hurt the third class of player - the ones who play you more then the cards.
More then one professional player has griped (unfairly) that no good player would call some of the bluffs they made, and that too many amateurs are diluting the pool in the WSOP main event. It jumped from 700 to over 2200 this year - an incredible jump -
As of today, in the 80 of 2200 players left, 3 of them (including Chris Ferguson) are former WSOP winners, so the cream is still rising but not like it was when there were only 70 players.
I think it'll slowly die out as a fad - esp. since most folks want to play NL these days, and those games never last long - too easy for someone to go broke in one mistake - but it's good for poker -
but all the popularity is very good for tourney players - more money in the pool, and a lot of folks watch TV and don't realize they see a lot more bluffing on there because for one, it's a final table and two, it makes for better ratings then bet, fold action.
Poker is a winning -EV if you're better then most of the other players at the table, and with so many fish, it's not hard to be better anymore
RB
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ah honey, we're all resplendent - Bill Mallonee
Geeks start out with the basic abilities to learn the math, and that gives them a huge advantage when learning poker over the average player. Their learning curve is shallow to understand the game. They also tend to like playing games. They will do very well in games such as blackjack, where the rules are very clear and the math works well. They will also do well in shorter-term play such as poker tournements.
But in poker, the separation between those that can hold their own, and those that excel over the long-term, is human observation. According to poker great Doyle Brunson, poker is a human game, not a numbers game. He had little education, and probably had to struggle to learn the math (which he knows very well).
Just like lawyers need to have legal skills in addition to a litigious client, geeks need human skills in addition to the math to succeed in the long-term.
Blackjack + geeks: teh winz
Poker + geeks: depends on the geek's human skills.
There may be little math in friendly poker games, but in serious poker there can be a great deal. You have to figure out the odds you will make your hand, and the odds that your hand will win. Compare these with pot odds (the amount of money being bet vs the amount already in the pot) and decide based on all of this if it is smart to play or not.
Of course none of this accounts for the human factor and bluffing.
any true geek will tell you that strip poker isnt the way to go. Strip UNO is where its really at!*
*yes, I have actually played Strip Uno.
This site is run by a casino math professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. It contains the odds on all the major casino games, and Java applets that teach you how to play the best odds.
http://www.wizardofodds.com/
I play a lot of hold 'em poker.. I used to play back in college, but it was hard to get a game going -- only real card players knew how to play...
:-p
I'm happy it's so popular now - it's easier to get a game going, and it's loads of fun to play. I play in home tourneys twice a week for low stakes buy ins ($20 and $10 usually), and I play online a bit too much... I need to stop that
The great thing about it is that while luck comes into play in any given tournament, over the long haul you'll definitely see skillful players rise to the top. One guy who comes to my weekly game consistently finishes in the top 3 and wins at least 3 times as often as anyone else who plays.
http://www.babysmasher.com
http://www.openingbands.com
check out Volcanobox
Sure it does. Read Sklansky's Theory of Poker. Then you start playing meta-odds - how often does this opponent bluff, how often should I bluff, what are the pot odds versus optimal bluff percentage vs implied pot odds, etc. There's lots of calculation going on, and it includes the human factor and bluffing.
I used to play quite a bit of structured-bet poker in the California card rooms. In California, as opposed to Nevada, the card rooms are smoke free, and the competition is *usually* pretty weak. At tables up to about the 6-12 or sometimes 10-20 range, almost all deals will see a flop. A lot of people will play any pair, regardless of position, and will often play any face card. In Vegas, more people know what they're doing, and a lot of times the deal will be folded around to the blinds. So, in my opinion, California is about as accomodating a place to play as there is, and I got to a point where I could consistently win about $15/hr, over the long run. Not great, but not bad. More practice and higher table limits probably would have improved this number. The problem is that it just gets SO. INCREDIBLY. BORING. If you're playing well, you're going to be folding most of your initial hands because they're just not worth playing. There have been hours where I've sat there and folded all 35 hands that are dealt. For a while you can watch the other players and learn their styles, but when you realize that two guys at the table will play anything to the flop, including 2-7 offsuit, there's not a whole lot else you need to know except that those two people suck and you should be ready to exploit their weakness. Some poker books have stories about men who cut the pockets out of their pants, so they can masturbate at the tables. Perhaps my boredom threshold for masturbating in public is higher, or maybe I just didn't stick with poker long enough, but my decision was that that lifestyle wasn't really the way I wanted to spend my life. For $15/hr, there are a lot of other jobs that don't revolve around being bored and taking other people's rent money. (Yes, I know you shouldn't play with rent money. A lot of people do. And those are usually the players who suck, and who are losing their money to you.) Pot-limit and no-limit are completely different animals, but the risk in those games is enormous. It's trivially easy to lose your entire bankroll in one night. Todd
I've been playing No Limit Hold'em for a while, here's my experience:
The only way to win consistanty is to play rationally (ie. mathematically) against people who are not playing rationally. Not only do you have to beat your opponents but you have to do it with a large enough percentage to also beat the house's rake (a small amount taken from each hand).
But since the house only takes a rake the odds aren't necessarily against you.
There are basically three ways to play:
Rationally against Rational players: results in you winning N% of hands with N being the number of people at the table. You basically trade pots back and forth. If you play long enough the rake eventually takes all of everyone's money.
Irrationally against Rational players: results in quickly loosing your money. You might get lucky in the short run, but you can't continue playing this way for long. Do it occassionally so that people might think you'll make irrational bets and then might call you when you have the nuts.
Rationally against Irrational players: You'll evetually gather all the money not lost to the rake. The only way to make money in the long term. However, you may still go on looong losing streaks.
I still play Hold`em (mostly rationally), but you eventually get to the point where you've seen all the hands. Now it's mostly a grind.
Kind thoughts do not change the world
2. Second piece of advice, never play for money online. Just don't. Don't do it.
The main reason not to play online is collusion. You can get eaten alive by two players who know each other but pretend not to. It happens. Everywhere.
For you poker players that make an occasional Vegas trip, you may be interested in a special that Bellagio offers. If you spend at least 6 hours in the poker room ( monitored by a stamped card given to you by the poker room host ), you can get a room for $200/night on the weekends and $129/night on the weekdays. This may not seem like much of a special, but considering the fact that the typical rate at Bellagio reaches $400-$500 on the weekends, I certainly consider it a great deal...especially when splitting it with a friend. That's where I'll be this weekend!
First try at this ignored paragraph breaks. Sorry!
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I used to play quite a bit of structured-bet poker in the California card rooms. In California, as opposed to Nevada, the card rooms are smoke free, and the competition is *usually* pretty weak.
At tables up to about the 6-12 or sometimes 10-20 range, almost all deals will see a flop. A lot of people will play any pair, regardless of position, and will often play any face card. In Vegas, more people know what they're doing, and a lot of times the deal will be folded around to the blinds.
So, in my opinion, California is about as accomodating a place to play as there is, and I got to a point where I could consistently win about $15/hr, over the long run. Not great, but not bad. More practice and higher table limits probably would have improved this number.
The problem is that it just gets SO. INCREDIBLY. BORING. If you're playing well, you're going to be folding most of your initial hands because they're just not worth playing. There have been hours where I've sat there and folded all 35 hands that are dealt. For a while you can watch the other players and learn their styles, but when you realize that two guys at the table will play anything to the flop, including 2-7 offsuit, there's not a whole lot else you need to know except that those two people suck and you should be ready to exploit their weakness.
Some poker books have stories about men who cut the pockets out of their pants, so they can masturbate at the tables. Perhaps my boredom threshold for masturbating in public is higher, or maybe I just didn't stick with poker long enough, but my decision was that that lifestyle wasn't really the way I wanted to spend my life.
For $15/hr, there are a lot of other jobs that don't revolve around being bored and taking other people's rent money. (Yes, I know you shouldn't play with rent money. A lot of people do. And those are usually the players who suck, and who are losing their money to you.)
Pot-limit and no-limit are completely different animals, but the risk in those games is enormous. It's trivially easy to lose your entire bankroll in one night.
Todd
Completely wrong.
m l
http://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/slotapx3.ht
NEVADA - Las Vegas
Unlike New Jersey, the Nevada Gaming Control Board does not break down its slot statistics by individual properties. Rather, they are classified by area.
The annual gaming revenue report breaks the Las Vegas market down into two major areas: the Strip and downtown. There is also a very big locals market in Las Vegas and those casinos are shown in the gaming revenue report as the Boulder Strip and North Las Vegas areas.
When choosing where to do your slot gambling, you may to keep in mind the following slot payback percentages for Nevada's fiscal year beginning July 1, 2002 and ending June 30, 2003:
5 Slot Machines
The Strip - 90.32%
Downtown - 91.50%
Boulder Strip - 93.03%
N. Las Vegas - 92.97%
25 Slot Machines
The Strip - 92.59%
Downtown - 94.83%
Boulder Strip - 96.47%
N. Las Vegas - 96.63%
$1 Slot Machines
The Strip - 94.67%
Downtown - 95.35%
Boulder Strip - 96.48%
N. Las Vegas - 97.21%
$1 Megabucks Machines
The Strip - 89.12%
Downtown - 88.55%
Boulder Strip - 87.76%
N. Las Vegas - 89.41%
$5 Slot Machines
The Strip - 95.33%
Downtown - 95.61%
Boulder Strip - 96.53%
N. Las Vegas - 96.50%
All Slot Machines
The Strip - 93.85%
Downtown - 94.32%
Boulder Strip - 95.34%
N. Las Vegas - 95.32%
These numbers reflect the percentage of money returned to the players on each denomination of machine. All electronic machines including slots, video poker and video keno are included in these numbers.
As you can see, the machines in downtown Las Vegas pay out 1% to 2% more than those located on the Las Vegas Strip for the lower denomination 5 and 25 machines. When you get to the $1 and $5 machines the difference is less noticeable but you can clearly see that the downtown casinos always return more than the Strip area casinos. This information is pretty well known by the locals and that's why many of them do their slot gambling away from the Strip unless they are drawn by a special slot club benefit or promotion.
Returns even better than the downtown casinos can be found at some of the other locals casinos along Boulder Highway such as Boulder Station and Sam's Town and also in the North Las Vegas area which would include the Fiesta, Santa Fe and Texas Station casinos. Not only are those numbers among the best returns in the Las Vegas area, they are also among the best payback percentages for anywhere in the United States.
This is one of those exceedingly rare chances where I can actualy post something on /. while at work and consider it work related :-)
I'm the lead programmer for a Poker training package called Poki's Poker Academy.
Poki started as an Artificial Intelligence research project at the University of Alberta, where I did my MSc. We've recently commercialized the AI into the above product.
The UofA
research page is an excellent resource for geeks interested in poker. Our publications look at the math and algorithmics behind writing sophisticated poker AI.
Poker is an incredibly geek friendly game. There is a lot of reward in being able to play analytically. The 'reading' of people is a much smaller part of the game than most folks think -- at the highest levels, the best players simply don't have any easy tells, so there is no point looking for any.
I want to live forever, or die trying.
Almost being the key word, and there's no possible source of "extra information" in craps, so it's a great house game. Blackjack used to be the best - you could count cards when you could find a decent 1 or 2 deck game, but now all those are for suckers, as the blackjack always pays 3 to 2 and the dealer hits on soft 17, which really helps the house and makes it basically impossible to get an edge.
That's why I like poker. You don't play the house, you play the other player. If you know what you're doing, you can have far better than the typical less than 1% player edge that's the best case scenario in blackjack.
I went to Vegas recently to play for the first time, and I ended up winning a little. For new players, you have to know when to play - at the low-limit tables, the locals play mornings, and if you're new to poker they'll likely beat you. Weekend nights is a mix of idiots (your prey) and sharks, many of whom are waiting for high-limit tables. If you have a loose high-limit player at your low limit table, trust me - get out. Even if there are 3 total newbies at your table, the "loose" shark will get more of your money than you will of the newbies. I found the best time was afternoons - the locals are gone, and the sharks are still sleeping it off, leaving you and a lot of really stupid people. That's when I did really well. It helps when some moron will take 2-7 unsuited all the way to the river in Hold 'em. It happened to me, it was great. You can't lose.
For a great convergence of geeks and poker, try the International Conference on Cognitive Modeling this summer, at which there will be a "pokerbot" competition. It's just what it sounds like, but if you'd like an overview (written for poker players), try my article from Card Player Magazine.
I just began playing poker about 2-3 weeks ago. I don't think I'll be able to add a heck of a lot of insight into the game as I'm just now understanding it, but here are some useful resources:
http://www.pokerlistings.com/poker-top-lists
Th is is a site that does a grid-style review of about 40-50 online poker sites. Me, I like EmpirePoker.com.
Play Poker Like the Pros
I found this book to be quite useful as a beginner but post-flop play advice is extremely vague or too caught up on specific situations that do not happen most of the time.
Ken Warren Teaches Texas Hold'em
This is a GREAT book but there are a few critical examples in there where I think his editor should have been hung in effigy. There is one chart that I have yet to figure out what it means, a few areas I don't quite follow what he's saying because if it's read literally, it's logically inconsistent and even a few misspellings. But despite all of these gripes, the best book I've seen on the specific game of Texas Hold 'Em.
He covers all areas of play, tells, betting (when to raise, when to check-raise, when to do none of the above), learning how to calculate outs, probabilities. He even includes "homework lessons" so you can better understand what hands may be profitable for your particular style of play.
I guess I can make some recommendations...
1) Playing for fake money is a great way to get a feel for the game in a general sense but people do not bet and play the same with fake money as they do with real money. I realize this may seem stupendously obvious but don't get your balls all worked up when you take in $1,000 in a night playing 5/10 Hold 'Em on Yahoo Games. These people play like asshats.
2) Speaking of which, don't play on Yahoo Games. Most of the betting sites that will take real money deposits also let you play for fake chips as well. I find that people who will go through the hassle of downloading a client for a specific poker site tend to take a more serious approach to betting and therefore you'll have a better gague of your gameplay.
One advantage of Yahoo, however, is that you cannot simply replenish your chips (AFAIK) by clicking on a few buttons. This means if you see someone with -2,402 chips, they kind of suck and you may want to avoid those tables if you really want to test your chops.
3) Bust out your spreadsheet of choice and label the headings with some of these; date, play/real money, day of week (1-7), month date (1-31), location, game type (texas hold 'em, omaha, etc), low bet, high bet, start time, end time, duration (calculated from the previous two), time of day, start bank, end bank, win/loss (calculated from the previous two), # of large bets per hour, rate per hour, table "looseness" (1-10), secondary expenses, tips to dealer, tips to waitstaff, narrative.
You might wonder what the day of the week and the day of the month have to do with anything. You will find that you do better or worse on certain days for reasons that may be non-obvious to you. For example, federal checks come on the 1st and the 15th, IIRC. Expect to see a better bankroll and profit on these days or even before since people will write checks that do not yet have backing a few days before knowing they'll be covered by the time they're cashed. Days of the week is probably a bit more obvious. Holidays factor in too.
If you're at a real casino you can bring a small notepad to jot these down on and enter into the sheet. If you're playing online you can just enter them in at the end of your gaming session. Generally you can just highlight the last row along with the next e
My
Limekiller
This is the advice:
Some may object that this gives weak players a chance to draw out on you (to beat you against the odds) because you let them stay in. I reply that it is a question of how *much* you win when you win that makes you successful, not how many *times* you win.
Hold'em is a slightly different story if there are ten people at the table, but the basic concept applies.
Yes, bet your premium hands. Just don't necessarily give away your hand strength by doing so. If you can let the other guy do the raising when you have him beat by long odds, you will make more profit more often.
Conversely, if you are sitting in a Hold'em game in late position and you are thinking about limping in (entering the hand for the minimum bet) with an A-10 offsuit, think about raising the pot instead (doubling the amount of money in the pot). The fewer people in that hand, the more likely you are to win it.
This simple advice has helped make me a winning player for a long time now.
WWJD? JWRTFA!
I play in a Tuesday home game run in the home of a Computer Science graduate student from a nearby University. Although some complain about the fact that the chips are all in "power of 2" denominations, that game does in fact draw a great mix of geeks and non-geeks. Occasionally there is geek talk at the table, but more often, it's not.
I have found, actually, that poker in general and home poker in particular are excellent opportunities for geeks to apply their native skills to something new and exciting, while meeting people outside their regular sphere. Also, working on "reading" people, which is central in the higher limits and in "big bet" poker, can help geeks learn the empathy skills that a purely technical focus often neglects.
Finally, for those of you in the Free Software world who would like to see Free Software Internet poker, I urge you to look at Mekensleep's work. While they are creating a general GPL'd engine for online gaming, they are focusing their efforts foremost on poker. I hope some will choose to contribute to the project.
Oh, and if anyone is looking for a home game, be sure to check out this site to find one.
Somewhat - but because Vegas is also filled with morons that are interested in poker because of its popularity, there are also lots of fish.
If you play certain hands and avoid dumb, loser hands, you can usually beat anyone at a home game of poker. But in a Casino? I don't like my odds of coming away with any money playing people at a Casino in Vegas.
I did last month, and I'd never played before. I played $3-$6 limit Hold 'em exclusively. At some times of the day, there were decent players, at some times there were sharks like you describe, and at some times there were no sharks and an absolute abundance of the stupidest, math-uninclined, play-any-hand-like-it-was-aces morons. I found afternoons best for that, and it's hard to lose money consistently to those people.
In fact, the idiots call so much you can't bluff. I tried once - I had a nut straight draw and missed it, but there was nothing on the board, I was on the button, and people were all checking on the river so I assumed (correctly, as it turned out) they had nothing. I either bet or raised on the river (can't remember if someone finally bet in front of me), got rid of everyone except one guy who called, and it turned out he had 8's or something equally crappy (compared to my K high or whatever). He was genuinely surprised, and said "I thought you had the straight!" I rolled my eyes and said "So why did you call if you thought you had 8's losing to a straight?" The guy shrugged and said he'd come that far with the 8's... Shit like that pisses you off, but all you have to realize is that 1) you can't bluff all the callers out of the pot in low limit, and 2) when you really do have a hand, you'll get paid well for it.
Personally, I wouldn't know why so many people would play WSOP. I'm sure the majority got in through satellites and such, but still, to me that's like throwing money at a brick wall if you haven't played (and won) in a bunch of tournaments first.
No question. But I think you can make enough to subsidize a vacation if you know what you're doing (I wasn't that good because it was my first time and I played low limit) and keep to a sane limit, while knowing when to play and how to avoid the sharks.
As the submitter mentions, poker (especially limit and no-limit hold'em) is a fantastic combination of skills including your ability to read people and math skills (especially your ability to calculate odds on the fly). It truly is a geek game, with many of the game's top players holding advanced degrees in mathematics, statistics, etc.
In fact, I'll be in Vegas starting this weekend to buy in to one of the $1500 tournaments which make up the World Series. Of course I have very little chance of winning, but I figured it was time to roll up a stake, head to vegas and take my shot!
Not a lot of people know there are 33 separate games making up the World Series, not just the grand $10k buy-in No Limit game you see televised on ESPN/etc. Speaking of which, with all the talk about it, it would have been nice for the submitter to include a link to the official WSOP website.
Required poker reading for those interested in getting dealt in:
CardPlayer.com. Poker news, tips and discussions. One of the best of the best. Includes a really good online odds calculator you can use to double check your own math :)
TwoPlusTwo.com. Website run by some of the smartest guys in gambling, David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth. Sklansky has an excellent series of highly-technical poker books for every skill level, including Hold 'Em Poker, Hold'Em Poker for Advanced Players, Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, and The Theory of Poker.
Doyle Brunson's Super System. Regarded by many as the bible on poker. Much of the information is outdated about specific games (the nature of the game has changed) but any respectable poker player knows this book.
PhilHellmuth.com. Phil is a poker geek himself, one of the best players around (and the youngest to win the world championship). His recent book on poker Play Poker Like the Pros is the best "intermediate" book around in my opinion.
PokerPages.com. Best place to find a game, be it a tournament or local game. Great source of poker news.
There are also a great number of high quality poker blogs, including PokerBlog.com, GuinessAndPoker.com and ChrisHalverson.com.
Not to mention of course, the explosion of online poker sites, including UltimateBet.com,
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There is no try at jedinite.com
However- these are the averages for entire properties, and can be manipulated based on the number of 103% payout machines, 97% payout machines, and 40% payout machines scattered throughout a casino.
Therefore we can both be right.
HOWEVER- I quallify my statement by saying that my knowledge is now 6 years old. Your numbers sound just about right, though- the further away from the strip you go, the better chance you have to win, and this too is advertising-related.
Note also how the casinos are VERY carefull not to let this show up in the published statistics- erring a bit on the side of caution with all nickle machines.
SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
Interesting stats, but it neither proves nor disproves the parents premise. The stats you mention are for the casino as a whole, the parent was refering to locations within the Casino.
If a Casino has 1,000 slot machines, it might determine that 20 of them are in "LURE" locations, and they payoff at 103%. The remaining 980 machine can pay off at 94.84% and you casino will average a payout of 95%. Now consider the amount of tech and monitoring casinos do, the variety of machines at their disposal, etc. You really think every machine pays off at the same rate?
Heck, this theory even explains why off-strip casinos pay out more, they have a lower ratio of high visibility to low visibilty slots, meaning their average will be higher.
Still doubting? Its not widely disseminated, but the big advantage of electronic Slots is that while their payouts must be the same, its perfectly legal for them to dangle jackpots just off the screen in non-scoring positions. They are carefully timed to show up when you might be getting disappointed, but not so often that you see the line and the stick attached to the carrot.
The corporate Vegas of today is far more cut-throat than the gangster Vegas of yesteryear, Its not Vinny in the back figuring how to lure you, its a crack team of statisticians and behavioral psychologists...
You are in a maze of twisted little posts, all alike.
I used to play UT and Medal of Honor. Not anymore, after I found out that many of the online poker sites have FREE money tables. So you get to compete against others and it doesn't cost you anything.
A friend of mine just recently started a site:
www.Aces-Wired.com
He's got reviews of several of the Online Casino's
I happen to live near Ga Tech and there are big games going on almost every night. Most colleges have games.
Plus I learned something else really interesting. About 40% of the people that I meet playing poker are Self Employed so it a great source for leads for my own business.
Poker is a great analogy for business too. In poker and in business you've got to learn to play the odds.
1. Know when the odds are in your favor.
2. Be able to capitalize on that advantage.
3. To make money, you learn to be comfortable with risk. There is no way around it.
Laugh at my ignorance while I learn Rails - a Real ne
Sklansky's is a great book. For some people it's a revalation on how to play, and also a revalation on how retarded you've been in the past.
"This is you left and that's your left. This is your right and that's your right. You're gonna die!
My casino philosophy has kept me on the winning side of the equation for some time now.
My lifetime up-to-down ratio is something like 4:1, and here's why:
When I walk into the casino, I have already planned to spend $100. I think of it the same way I would going on any kind of night out: an expense. This money is already mentally written off (ie, I expect to lose it).
If at any point during the evening my gambling fund is double or more than my initial fund amount, half my gambling fund goes into my wallet. Say I win $250 on a lucky call, having $50 still on me. I'm at $300, so now I drop $150 in my pocket. No matter what happens, no matter how bad the gods hate me, I will only gamble out of the fund, and not dig into wallet cash. In this example, I made $50, plus I got the night for free, because I got my $100 expense fund back. And I got to keep gambling from $150. :D
The rule changes after that...but this is all instinct derived. I wouldn't be surprised if someone could produce a formula that squeezes high efficiency out of this, but it won't be me. For me, I just work off doubles for any one visit. At the $200, $400, and $800 points I split the gambling fund in half and put half away. After that, every $1,000. And so on, and so on, choosing whatever numbers suit your income and desire to bet.
At some point, I might have $4000 set back, and just decide to let the gambling pot do whatever it will. Regardless of what happens, I can walk at any point, and have paid for the trip, the time, and still have cash to cover toys and taxes. And still come home with that $100 in my pocket.
It could be that I just got lucky a couple of times, larger wins wiped out the small losses since I don't gamble a lot. I average one trip every couple of years, but as long as you keep your head it's not bad. Usually the problem comes when people gamble what they can't afford to lose, so they gamble more to win it all, and wind up screwed.
Best rule ever: Always be prepared to lose just decide beforehand how much to lose, and stick to it.
Self-referential sigs are rarely entertaining.
most geeks play strip uno all the time. it's strip duo that's a little more rare for them.
char *mySig;
Disclaimer -- the only form of Poker I play is Texas Hold'em, Low-Mid Limit and occasionally No Limit tournaments. I can't speak on the other variations of the game and, no, I don't work for or with any of the sources that I am citing.
For starters, Hold'em, like any form of Gambling for real money, isn't for everyone. Gambling is called Gambling for a reason, otherwise they'd call it Savings. But if you're looking at getting into it, here is some food for thought:
From a geek standpoint, I think one of the appeals that Hold'em Poker has is that it isn't so much a game a chance as it is more of a game of incomplete information. The very essence of living a geeked out existance is marinated in the ability to thrive in environments of incomplete information, whether solving problems or creating solutions. Out of those who consider themselves geeks, I'd have to say that those who are Hackers (whether in the genuine sense or cracking into computer/network/phone systems) would probably tend to have a little more of an edge than most. Aside from the logic and reasoning involved in playing the game, there's a certain instinct that develops, very similar to that certain "something" that enables some people the uncanny ability to take a look at a system, see what isn't obvious and find ways to make that system do things it wasn't originally designed to do. Anyone applying the Hacker Mentality to learning and playing the game will probably find that it won't take long for them to become formidable opponents.
Another way to look at the game is that essentially you're putting together a puzzle, racing to put yours together first, and betting that you can put together a better puzzle than everyone else -- all done by assembling the information between the hole cards that you're dealt, the cards that are flopped, the final cards that hit the table, and the patterns of betting/raising/folding around the table. You're not only competing with others at the table but you're also competing with yourself since there are times when you'll have to fold on seemingly great hands because playing them through to the end of a round will only mean getting beat and throwing your money away. Outside of just plain old bad luck, when it comes to most people losing big at Hold'em, generally you can boil it down to either (1) the know the basic rules but being clueless about the game's dynamics, (2) playing with a lack of discipline, and/or (3) letting their egos dictate the way they play their cards instead of doing what the cards and the dynamics of the table during that particular round says they should do. I'm no expert but this is something I've observed way too often. I've competed in some small stakes Hold'em tournaments locally and walked away with the top prize several times. In each case the people that were easiest to knock out of the game succumbed to any one of those three, usually all of them by the time I was scooping up the last of their chips.
The two foremost authors I've read on the subject are Sklansky and Malmuth. Between these three books -- The Theory of Poker by David Sklansky (ISBN: 1-880685-00-0), Hold'em Poker by David Sklansky (ISBN: 1-880685-08-6), and Hold'em for Advanced Players by David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth (ISBN: 1-880685-22-9) -- alot of patience, and alot of practice with both online poker play (start with play money) and stand-alone versions of the game, it doesn't take long to advance beyond being one of the novices throwing their money away at a table and getting beat like a baby seal. The rest comes with time and experience.
Aside from those books, there are tons of sites out there on the subject. Here are a few that I found to be helpful during the learning processs:
http://www.twoplustwo.com/
http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/
http://www.holdemsecrets.com/
Als
I love to play poker. I'm not the best player in the world, but I do win a little(!) bit. I think it's important to point out that poker is a very different form of gambling than 21 or craps or slots.
There are many people who don't understand this, and in fact are probably reading this right now thinking, "oh, another delusional gambler."
The thing you have to understand about poker (but not video poker) is that it is never played against the house. Instead, the house takes a small fee from each hand. In home games, there is no fee at all.
This means that whether or not you win is based not only on the raw statistics of how the cards come, but also how your opponent plays.
For example, note that before each hand of poker some or all players must play a forced bet, called a 'blind' or 'ante'. Of course, you are allowed to bet, call, raise, or fold at any time.
Now, just suppose, you are playing against a complete idiot: someone who folds every hand at every opportunity, even if he has the best possible hand.
Under these circumstances you would win 100% of the money. Every penny would be yours. Every hand you check, he says, "I don't think I can win", and he folds his hand.
Now of course, people are not that dumb, and don't play this way. But it turns out that there is a very very very wide range of possible ways to play the game between playing perfectly (which means you are somehow able to guess with 100% accuracy what cards your opponent has and know with 100% accuracy what he will do in a given situation and calculate the odds 100% correctly in your favor) -- and playing like our hypothetical moron.
This gap between ineptitude and perfection is what allows poker players to make money. The vast majority of players fall just above the moron line (believe it or not!) -- and this means there is plenty of room for people willing to learn how to play the game properly (and who have the discipline to actually do so!) to take money away from those who aren't willing.
Most of the people who play poker ARE gamblers. They call with their hands to the river hoping to get lucky and win the pot. The poker player who isn't gambling is the one who uses all available information at his disposal to calculate the odds of his winning and who only plays the game if it is to his benifit to do so.
For example, in Texas Hold'em, each player gets two cards and shares five. Suppose you are playing someone and are in the following hand:
YOU: Ah Ad
Board: Ac As 7h 5d
At this point, even with one cards still left undelt, it is IMPOSSIBLE to lose this hand. Why? There are only four aces in the deck, so your opponent can have none. The very best hand he could have at this point would be a pair of sevens. Not even a straight flush is possible at this point because there is only one card left to come. The best your opponent could hope for would be to get another seven -- and lose anyway.
When this happens in poker (it's called having the 'nuts'), every penny you bet that is matched by another player is profit. There are no odds at this point -- there is no question. You WILL win.
Good players excel at placeing themselves in this situation, while avoiding situations where they are the ones on the losing end of the deal. (If you were on the losing side of this game, the best thing you could do would be to fold and not give your opponent any more money. But most people will call you down because they "Just had to see what you had!")
If you still believe that winning or losing at poker is random, just take a look at the WSOP: Just as in golf, each year the same 20 professionals keep coming back to play, and each year it's those same 20 people who walk away with the bulk of the money. Oh, sure, every now and then someone wins the competition who probably shouldn't have, and every now and then a professional loses a lot of money. But averaged over time, in the end, it's the good players who will end up with the cash.
The only real difference is that in Golf sponsers usually pay the entrance fee, where as in poker, each player fronts his own fee.
Just something to think about when someone says, "Poker," and you think, "Slots."
-Chiem
VIDEO poker != TABLE poker.
Lemme explain, as a fairly proficient card shark. (I missed WSOP by eight seats in a 150-man supersatellite this past Feb. Wired 7s, short-stacked, on the button, against a bozo with 9-10 off. He flopped a 9, I go home.)
Video poker is a game of chance. Granted, due to Gaming Board regulations, the chance of any card hitting is in line with actual probabilities, but, in the end, you are, like a slot monkey, looking for particular combinations of cards to get a payoff, usually starting at a pair of jacks.
Table poker, though, is an entirely different animal. Larger amounts of money are typically involved. Play is much more skill-based than in video poker. Knowing when to toss Big Slick (A-K), or when to hold Khan (A-Q) is a tricky thing to master. It's even harder to know what to do on a flop. Some flops it's damned obvious, some the right looking thing will kill you. (Ex: A-9, flop comes 9-3-3 with one caller. Too bad the &*#$ had J-3. Two pair is good. A set is better.)
Add to that understanding the psychology of the game. You have tight players, you have loose players, you have lunatics, you have masters, and quite often you don't know who's who until they've taken some of your precious pieces of resin. VP, you're playing a machine.
Probability is also a major major factor. Big Slick, for example, is a monster hand because (a) it is favored against any other non-paired hand and (b) against any paired hand that isn't kings or aces, it's a coin-flip. (7-3 dog against cowboys, 12-1 dog against bullets. Link to a great poker odds calculator)
But the most difficult part of poker - especially high-stakes tournament poker - is keeping it together when you're so nervous, excited, tense, and anxious at the same time. Keeping it together when you know you've got the nuts (the very best hand possible) and you've got a sucker betting into you.. or calming down enough to see if your set also made your opponent fill her straight.. It's tough.
I love it.
I used to be someone else. Now I'm someone better.
Real life is underrated.
There are TWO rules for ultimate success in poker: 1. Never tell everything you know. more Poker Party Jokes
Laugh at my ignorance while I learn Rails - a Real ne
It's not like you could get any karma out of it. The mod system is semi-broken.
That ol' Janx Spirit!
The thing I love about poker is that it's not about playing against the house. It's about playing against other humans who have the exact same odds that you do. No weighted advantage among participants. Certainly the house always takes its cut (rake), but win or lose, it's always about one person outplaying (or being luckier than) another. Face to face, mano a mano. Very satisfying when you win, and very humbling when you lose. Love it.
+1 for every 10/j/q/k/a that is played
-1 for every 2,3,4,5,6
ignore 7-8-9
Divide the count by a guess as to the # of decks left in the shoe... and then
bet higher on higher counts, bet low on lower counts.
Newbies around the table hold bullshit-crap
Someone is going to get two pair out of the board. You have to hope for another ace or a pair on the board. If that pair does show up, it likely gives trip-bullshit to one of the 7 implacable newbs.
Your question does not have a short answer. AA is not as good as you think. If all 9 of your opponents stayed in til the river card, it would only win 30% of the time! Granted, your odds before the flop are better than anyone elses, but this means that there are on average seven people sitting at the table that would beat you if they stayed in.
You shouldn't think of yourself as entitled to win that hand, you should try to maximize your value when you win it.
In a tournament setting, going all in with AA pre flop can be a pretty good move, but it's not always how you should play it. Just make a big raise to try to get some people out, and if you have a big re-raiser, then consider going all in.
Having a few punters call your big bet is not a bad thing. It means that the times you do win the hand, you will win more money on average as a result.
Of course, it's not that simple in a tournament, because you also must take your relative stack size into account. If there are still 2500 people in the tournament, someone has a stack ten times your size at the table, you might want to think twice about pushing your advantage too hard. You should almost never fold AA pre flop (though there are very very very rare situations where it is a good idea), but AA is only an 87% winner against a random hand.
Your goal in a proportional payout (pays out to x place, as opposed to a winner-take-all) tournament is to survive as long as possible, NOT to press every little advantage to the limit. This means that, while you must be aggressive, you don't want to risk all your chips early on if you can help it.
In some tournaments (particularly online), you could probably outlast half the field just by folding every hand. Realize this, and take some risks, but try skate your way to the final table, not bludgeon your way there.
In a winner take all tournament, the gloves are off, and you *should* play every little edge to the maximum. This means that you will lose early a lot, but also that you will win more often than you should.
WWJD? JWRTFA!
It's alpha, but works quite well i think :
.iso of a liveCD ready to run it, the project is lead by Loïc Dachary, a senior GNU, Debian programmer, and i think developpers are needed to help them ;)
here is le website.
There is an
An interesting fact is that it is plain GPL software developped under a commercial contract: Loïc works on this paid by a game company!
So this could be a major hit in gnu/linux gaming AND a way to prove one (brilliant) programmer can _earn_ his life writing Free Software! =~))
GO MekenSleep!
The main reason not to play online is collusion. You can get eaten alive by two players who know each other but pretend not to. It happens. Everywhere.
This isn't a big deal for a few of reasons; first of all, people who collude are usual bad at poker. And collusion simply DOESNT HELP that much that it would represent a significant edge, or give a bad player an edge over a good player. So if you are a good poker player, you will beat them anyway
Secondly, it is EXTREMELY EASY for the poker rooms to catch colluders. There is a record of every single bet that you make and a paper trail a mile long for every player. If you really want to avoid collusion, you'd probably be safer ONLINE than offline. The poker rooms also use software to automatically scan betting patterns for suspicious activity, and this software is surprisngly good at catching cheaters. I think a big problem for colluders is, not only do they have to make their collusion effective, but they have to avoid the detection software.. and if you can avoid the detection software, that probably puts a big enough dent into your cheating plan that it renders it useless.
Finally, most people who wish to play online want to play the low limits. We're talking pennies, dimes, and quarters here. There isn't much incentive for colluders to play these games, as there is so little money at stake. Sure, once you get to higher limit games ($5-10 NL, $10-20 NL), you should be more careful. But by the time you are playing for that kind of money, I'm sure you're able to look out for yourself.
While many have posted about pokerbots, odds calculations, and other game-related issues, i'm surprised no one has brought up the issue of security.
Internet pokerrooms are an exploding phenomenon; according to my sources, one of the largest pokerrooms makes over $2 million/day. However, as you might expect, this brings up some security issues.
The most basic of these is random number generation. A long time ago, one of the poker rooms had a faulty Random Number Generator. They were re-seeding it for every hand! And worst of all, they posted their code online to demonstrate how "secure" it was... The best poker rooms today will use a hardware RNG with all sorts of goodies to protect the data stream.
Another issue is that of fraud. Hackers have been known to buy-in with stolen cc's, and then dump that money to accomplices, then, when the victim charges back, the poker room is left holding the bill. This doesn't affect the players so much, since the poker rooms end up losing the money; but the best poker rooms will impose limits on (first) deposits to prevent this.
Yet another issue is that of collusion detection. Another AI problem, which is a pattern-detection problem, is to check when two people are "playing partners". Some of this software is already in use right now and (to my knowledge) works fairly well. I think a big problem for colluders is, not only do they have to make their collusion effective, but they have to avoid the detection software.. and if you can avoid the detection software, that probably puts a big enough dent into your cheating plan that it renders it useless.
Finally, it brings up the issue of e-cash in general. While paypal does not allow online gambling, there is a whole industry of electronic payment services that thrive on gambling, the main one being Neteller. Since none of these are US-based, does the US risk losing dominance in this potentially important area of the future? And how secure are these accounts anyway? The people I know who use these things keep very little money in them and withdraw regularly to a real bank account.
So as you can see, poker and internet poker in particular brings up far more computer issues than simply the problem of a Poker-playing AI/poker strategy.
Thoughts are welcome.
Yes, poker is a game for mathematically-oriented geeks. In fact, the game is undergoing a revolution, with the savvy young players overthrowing the old guard, because they simply have better tools in their toolbox. Understanding how the other player thinks is still absolutely essential to playing at the top level, but there are also many mathematical concepts (beyond simple probabilities) that are very important to poker strategy.
In the old days of the Internet (before AOL), the newsgroup rec.gambling.poker had an incredibly high signal to noise ratio. Good players shared their insights, and many of them went on to be major stars in the poker world. I was just down at the WSoP and met with several of them (old friends and new acquaintances, many world champions among them).
Television has suddenly made poker into a spectacle, and the growth in popularity has been spectacular. Online poker is also booming, with thousands of geeks fleecing the millions of players who have less knowledge about the game.
If you want to learn more about this great game, visit some of the links on the The University of Alberta Computer Poker Research Group home page. You will need to read a lot (especially the books by Sklansky and Malmuth), and practice a lot before you become a good player.
One good tool for providing endless hours of practice is the commercial version of our research programs, Poki's Poker Academy.
Now is a great time to have fun and augment your income playing poker.
- Darse.
( hey look moderators! it's the actual guy! :)
char*p="char*p=%c%s%c;main(){printf(p,34,p,34);}"
I doubt most people who have replied to you really have 'clay' chips. What are most popular (and what you see on ebay) are Chinese-made, plastic chips with metal disc inserts (to increase the weight.)
Though nice, these chips are hardly the real deal. For starters, they are a lot more slippery and noisy than casino chips. Clack a few real chips around in your hand, and do the same with these. Try shuffling stacks of ebay/5stardeal chips. Not nearly as smotoh and easy.
They are, however, nice for the home game and several steps up above the cheap plastic slotting chips that you find at your local drugstore. I even have a set of them.
But, if you really want nice chips, try searching on ebay for "Chipco"; they are the same manufacturer as is used by many casinos, and they are superior chips in every way (incl. price) when compared to 5stardeal/ebay "clay" chips.
Finally, check out the chip buying advice at http://www.homepokertourney.com/ -- I think it probably says what I've summarized, and he has links to more distributors.
If you want to leave Vegas with a small fortune, start with a large fortune.
And spend it in the pawn shops when you are there.
So many people literlay loose the shirt off there back [1] and are reduced to hocking cameras, guns etc. These can be bought very cheaply from pawnbrokers. Coupled with very cheep rooms (+ suites) and free shows to lure in gamblers, you can come away with more monney than you spend if you dont gamble!
[1]I even saw a tux in a pawn shop there.
Trouble was it was typical vegas XXXXXL fat bastard size.
Anyone quoted by a reporter knows how little they understand
Don't believe what you read is the truth.
YOU: Ah Ad
Board: Ac As 7h 5d
The very best hand [your opponent] could have at this point would be a pair of sevens.
That's not true. He could be sitting on pocket 7's, and have made a full-house. He'd still lose to your quad-Aces, but I just wanted to point out that a "pair of 7's" is not the second-nut hand out there at this point.
Like woodworking? Build your own picture frames.
i for one find poker much more interesting than blackjack or other ostensibly "non-total luck" games
:)
#1, blackjack basically is a "total luck" game once you've got a handle on basic strategy and counting... it just becomes a matter of whether or not you get an opportunity to put your counting skills to good use, and then not getting booted from the casino...
but poker, at least over beers with your mates, is basically social engineering... and the better you know the folks you're playing, the more interesting the game is...
as i side note, i generally have only played poker with my non-geeky friends, which is a coincidence, not a choice
Luck has a role in poker, sure. You can't control what cards you get, but, once you have the cards, skill really takes over. Your decisions on what to do with those cards can win you the hand, regardless of what the cards say.
Going all-in with The HAMMER! (7-2 offsuit) isn't necessarily a bad play, especially when you think your opponants got dealt crap. Going all-in with aces isn't necessarily a good play, if there's someone you suspect may have a decent hand and you wish to get all the chips you can out of him.
Skill in betting is precisely a mathematical skill. At the least, you need to know what odds you're getting and giving for that bet. (EX: 100k bet into a 1M pot = 10:1 pot odds.) Flashing through exactly which hands can beat yours, and the odds that your opponant has it, is also tricky. (EX: I have Q-9 off. Board reads 6-7-Q-8-T, rainbow. What beats my hand? A J-9.)
If no skill were involved, then each final table would be completely different and random... but you look at the leader boards, and a few faces keep coming to the top. Games of skill have a cream of the crop. Games of chance, by nature, can't.
I used to be someone else. Now I'm someone better.
Real life is underrated.
Was that comment written in english???
Yes, but with a lot of poker terminology.
If you'd like to learn the terminology you can either read some poker sites (I dunno any, but I'm sure they're out there) or watch some WPT. They have two commentators and do a good job of explaining terminology -- either the commentators will explain the term they just used, or a little explanation box will pop up in the bottom right of the screen doing so.
Yeah, I've been watching a good bit of WPT... it's fairly mindless to watch, which is good when you're waiting for a 13 week old child to finish eating, fall asleep, etc.
What if you are on the bubble (one place out of the money) with a small stack, and there are three people all in before you, one of the players has a stack bigger than yours, and two of the players have equal size stacks (meaning at least one of them is going to be out of the tournament)?
You should probably fold, because if you do you are virtually guaranteed to win money, whereas if you call you may not. It's more complicated than that of course, it would depend on the relative size of your stack and your EV from calling, but to say that it is never right to fold aces is incorrect. There are definitely very rare situations where the EV math says you are wrong.
That is why I said very very very rare. Normally you should not even think about folding. I probably shouldn't have brought it up because it isn't good to confuse new people too much, and I knew it might cause a ruckus.
WWJD? JWRTFA!
My other example was really a borderline case. Let me give you a better one.
You are at the final table with 5 other people. You are in 5th place. The tournament pays -
$1000 for 1st
$500 for 2nd
$250 for 3rd
$175 for 4th
$0 for 5th
Each of your opponents has exactly 50 times the amount of chips that you have (meaning they all have equal size stacks)
One of your opponents folds, the other three go all in.
You hold AA. What should you do?
Any answer except fold is the wrong answer. If you fold, unless there is a split hand, you win $250, because 2 people are about to get knocked out.
If you stay in you run a large risk that you will get $0, and even if you win, you will still be greatly outstacked (over 12 to one by the person who folded, over 30 to one by the person who won the all-in).
Let me remind you that I said it was a very very very rare situation that would find you folding AA. I just wanted to plant the idea that such a situation was possible in the complicated world of poker tournaments.
In a ring game, you are correct. Unless I'm mistaken, there is never a situation where you should fold AA pre-flop. Ever.
The same goes for a winner-take all tournament.
However, those proportional payout tournaments are a tricky beast, and if you even start a sentence about PPT strategy with "you should never", you're probably incorrect.
WWJD? JWRTFA!