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Steven Hawking Loses Bet On Black Holes?

st1d writes "Looks like Steven Hawking might have to pay up on an old bet regarding black holes - seems his idea about them destroying information wasn't quite living up to his expectations: 'The about-turn might cost Hawking, a physicist at the University of Cambridge, an encyclopaedia because of a bet he made in 1997. More importantly, it might solve one of the long-standing puzzles in modern physics.' He's due to make a formal announcement July 21."

112 of 477 comments (clear)

  1. Winning a bet... by Dagny+Taggert · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ...against Hawking would be something to tell the grandchildren about. Hell, it would be an honor to lose a bet to him.

    --
    Don't be a looter...and yes, I know that it's spelled with an "A" instead of an "E".
    1. Re:Winning a bet... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      Hell, it would be an honor to lose a bet to him.

      As long as it isn't a stair climbing bet.

    2. Re:Winning a bet... by Andy_R · · Score: 4, Interesting

      You are thinking of "Hawking Radiation", which (as you might guess by the name) Prof. Hawking already knows about.

      From TFA...

      "Hawking radiation" contains no information about the matter inside the black hole and once the black hole evaporates, all information is lost.

      But this conflicts with the laws of quantum physics, which say that such information can never be completely wiped out.


      It's a solution to this paradox that Hawking will be talking about.

      --
      A pizza of radius z and thickness a has a volume of pi z z a
    3. Re:Winning a bet... by Zaphrod · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Steven has lost bets before but in most cases I believe it was he who proved himself wrong. He bets against what he hopes to prove thereby winning in either case.

    4. Re:Winning a bet... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Q. How many Disabled People's Rights Activists does it take to change a light bulb?

      A. It's not the light bulb that needs changing -- it's the rest of Society's attitude that needs changing.

    5. Re:Winning a bet... by untaken_name · · Score: 5, Funny

      Jesus, who uses those nowadays anyway?

      Wow. If He answers your question, could you tell me what His /. id is? I have some questions for Him too...if you get His email addy, that'd work too.

    6. Re:Winning a bet... by justkarl · · Score: 5, Funny

      Wow. If He answers your question, could you tell me what His /. id is? I have some questions for Him too...if you get His email addy, that'd work too.

      At first read, I couldn't tell if you were talking about Jesus or Stephen Hawking. But I'll bet they both have accounts here.

    7. Re:Winning a bet... by MasTRE · · Score: 5, Funny

      > Winning a bet against Hawking would be something to tell the grandchildren about.

      Hey, kids - when I was your age, I used to bet people in wheelchairs who couldn't even speak unassisted and take their money away.

      --
      Must-not-watch TV!
    8. Re:Winning a bet... by scarletire · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Black holes are generally detected by the X-rays emitted by the matter falling into the black hole not by Hawking radiation. I think Hawking radiation would be at a much lower intensity.

      Actually, has anyone every detected a black hole that wasn't gobbling up matter from a nearby source (e.g. a star). A lone black hole travelling in the void. Has anyone found such a beast?

    9. Re:Winning a bet... by DeXtroMe · · Score: 2, Funny

      And I'll bet that, by the fact you spew insults without using your name, that you're a ball-bag licking pickle-puffer. Here's your sign, asshat. Hahahah... too classic coming from an AC

    10. Re:Winning a bet... by untaken_name · · Score: 2, Funny

      I believe it is. You see, all you must do is examine the number closely.
      2559
      2 + 5 = 7
      9 -2 = 7
      take the 2 we subtracted from the 9, add it to the other 5, you get 7.
      that means His real id is 777.
      it all makes sense now.

    11. Re:Winning a bet... by Fizzog · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The thing about time travel is that if it is *ever* going to be possible then it has already happened in the future.

      And if so then there would be time travellers all over the place right now.

      Which of course always makes me think about Repo Man...

    12. Re:Winning a bet... by Y2 · · Score: 2, Informative
      Black holes are generally detected by the X-rays emitted by the matter falling into the black hole not by Hawking radiation. I think Hawking radiation would be at a much lower intensity.

      Much, much, much lower!

      The Hawking radiation is completely specified by its temperature, which is inversely proportional to the mass of the black hole. If the black hole's mass is more than around 1% of the Earth's mass (or 20 billionths of the sun's), its temperature is colder than the cosmic background radiation. It's actually gaining mass from the background faster than it loses mass by radiating. The universe has to get quite a bit colder before solar- and galactic-mass black holes start evaporating!

      --
      "But all your emitter and collector are belong to me!"
    13. Re:Winning a bet... by Dogtanian · · Score: 2, Funny

      As long as it isn't a stair climbing bet.

      Ha ha ha.... you've made the same mistake that the Doctor made when running up a staircase to escape from the Daleks (Doctor Who: Remembrance of the Daleks).

      Yep; levitation technology. I heard that Hawking got it roundabout the same time he got his hands on the Daleks' laser-gun technology.

      In fact, I heard he's getting plastic surgery to look more like Davros.

      --
      "Slashdot - News and Chat Sites Deviant". (Click "homepage" link above for details).
    14. Re:Winning a bet... by d474 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I've considered that line of logic that if time travel is possible it is *always* possible. It follows that since time and space are interwoven then time travel would require the ability to also travel *everywhere*. In other words, to have the ability to travel anywhere in time is the ability to travel everywhere in space.

      Now, using that as a premise, shouldn't the earth resemble the seedy spaceport bar in Mos Eisley, Tattoine?

      --
      Authority questions you. Return the favor.
    15. Re:Winning a bet... by Gleapsite · · Score: 2, Funny

      I'll take that bet. One encyclopedia and one bible sound good?

      --
      face the world with eyes of fire.
  2. Destroying info. by tomhudson · · Score: 5, Funny
    seems his idea about them destroying information wasn't quite living up to his expectations
    In other words, black holes don't run Windows.
    1. Re:Destroying info. by lacrymology.com · · Score: 2, Funny

      "black holes don't run Windows"

      I guess I've lost that bet about them being the universe's version of the BSOD... or in other words, the BHOD.

      -m

      --

      #
      # Modus Ponens
      #
  3. Integrity by Stephen+R+Hall · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It shows the character of the man - not only is he prepared to admit he was wrong, but will present detailed scientific proof of why he was wrong.

    1. Re:Integrity by thefirelane · · Score: 5, Informative

      If this is the same bet I remember... he wanted to be wrong. His expectation, and hope was that he would loose the bet... he took the bet because if his theories turn out to be wrong, at least he gets the prize of the bet as consolation.


      ---Lane

    2. Re:Integrity by Ari_Haviv · · Score: 5, Funny

      not only that but he "appeared" on Conan O'brian. now that is a man I can respect.

      --
      Join Team Mozilla #38050 Folding@home
    3. Re:Integrity by Timesprout · · Score: 5, Funny

      Yes, he is going to bring a small black hole to the meeting which will consume all the delegates thus destroying them. The now completely destroyed delegates will continue to receive spam so proving that some information about them does still exist. Unfortunately for the delegates though their future legacy is to be considered by our decendants as perverts obsessed with their penis size, women having carnal relations with donkeys and perhaps most bizarrely, a toner cartridge fetish.

      --
      Do not try to read the dupe, thats impossible. Instead, only try to realize the truth
      What truth?
      There is no dupe
    4. Re:Integrity by simong_oz · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It shows the character of the man

      Actually, reading after his biography (sorry can't remember which one) I got the feeling he was not really a very nice person at all. He came across as extremely arrogant and intolerant. True, he's been through and overcome a lot, but the way he treated people around him was not very nice at all.

      --
      "Because it's there." - George Mallory, when asked why he wanted to climb Mt Everest, March 18, 1923 (New York Times)
    5. Re:Integrity by BenBenBen · · Score: 2, Interesting

      A friend is at Cambridge, and he describes Hawking as a man who isn't afraid to use his wheelchair as a weapon (literally - not a fan of crowds, by all accounts), and knows his value to Cambridge as long as he remains there.

      Having never met him I'd be loathe to criticise, but anecdotal evidence does suggest he's a grade A egotistical wanker. Or as Fox would put it, "Some people say he's a baby-eating wheeled menace who should be ejected into space; you decide".

      --
      The Slashdot Paradox: "100% Overrated"
    6. Re:Integrity by Ubergrendle · · Score: 5, Informative

      Having worked with disabled people in a support capacity earlier in life, I can offer some observations (which are fully qualified as personal opinion only!):

      1. Disabilities affect your state of mind. Just as you think differently if you speak a different language or come from a different culture, the mere fact that you're disabled impacts ALL aspects of your life, directly or indirectly. Think of it this way: if you know, for example, that you will NEVER have a sex life and that you will NEVER go through the traditional dating/marriage male/female dynamic, how does that change you life? For better? For worse?

      2. Disabilities usually come with ongoing pain. Sores from prolonged periods of sitting in a wheelchair. Muscle problems from over developed/under developed muscles due to 'incorrect' body posture. Rashes from your adult diapers. Pain is NOT a natural state, and will pervade all aspects of your personality. When my mother had a serious muscle injury that persisted for about 18 months, the constant pain changed her personality completely (for the worse). Many times this is the reason why elderly people seem cantankerous and cranky...this is not their natural disposition. They were not 'always this way'.

      3. People with disabilities are needy. Some more than others. The best adjusted ones are people who have disabilities onset late in life, or the ones that somehow have the strength of will (plus physical capability) of being independent. But some do not/cannot become independent, and thus are need as a matter of living. In many disabled people, I've seen an amplified sense of demand and outrage at minor things. It also amplifies the 'me-me-me-me' attitude, which I interpret as a corrupted sense of self preservation.

      I think the movie "My Left Foot" did a great job portraying all of the personality differences if you're looking for a good dramatised case study.

      Short of it is: I don't doubt that Hawking is an a**hole. I would be a bit surprised if he wasn't, in all honesty. But try not to judge too harshly...despite his great intelligence I suspect his social skills are unique to himself and somewhat limited. In this case I prefer to feel pity for his first wife, and reserve judgment on the man.

      --
      John Maynard Keynes: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"
    7. Re:Integrity by HiThere · · Score: 5, Interesting

      People who live in pain tend to be unpleasant characters. Sorry, it seems to work that way. That Hawking is able to be civil almost all the time is a great testiment to his social awareness. And his social awareness would make is "cripple" status particularly annoying to him.

      I suspect that he pep-talks himself all the time, just to get through a day. I'm certain that he will be seen by many as arrogant and intolerant. But if he were to be tolerant *of himself* he might well collapse into self-pity. Similarly if he were to loose his good (arrogant) opinion of himself.

      I am only sporadically troubled by a chronic pain. I'm told that the first thing that people notice that lets them know that I'm in pain is that I become more cutting, and my humor turns blacker. I don't notice this, myself, but it's been reported to me by someone I trust, AND used to diagnose when I was in pain, so I'm fairly certain that it's accurate.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    8. Re:Integrity by EMH_Mark3 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Nice theory but you forgot that SPAM can't carry any useful information, much like wave interference patterns :)

      --
      Burn the land and boil the sea, you can't take the sky from me
    9. Re:Integrity by midav · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Let alone, this constant necessity to explain simple things you have long as lost any interest in but which other people are still struggling to understand.

      It is like explaining that 2 X 2 = 4 and 3 X 3 = 9 and after spending another hour talking about powers and logarithms people would ask you: 'Yeah, and by the way what is 2 X 3, again?'

      I am being serious. Anyone who tought in college would know how frustrating it might be sometimes.

    10. Re:Integrity by timalewis · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I think you could perhaps attribute his attitude more to the fact that he is a Cambridge academic and less to the fact that he is in a wheelchair.

    11. Re:Integrity by suffe · · Score: 2, Funny

      Well said. I know that if I had come up with an advanced theory such as this I'd never reveal it. Much better to keep it to myself and not lose the $10 encyclopedia.

      --

      Karma: 2.71828182846 (Mostly due to small, fun pills)
    12. Re:Integrity by FuzzyBad-Mofo · · Score: 5, Funny

      Applied Cryogenics, 2000

      Fry: So then my chair tilted backwards and I almost fell into this freezer thingy.
      Hawking: I call it a "Hawking Chamber."
      Fry: Instead of falling in and getting frozen, I missed and wanged my head.
      Gore: Well it's obvious what should have happened. That wang to the head should have killed you.
      Fry: Uh what?
      Nichols: Let's finish the job.
      Gore: No wait! There must be a peaceful -
      [Nichols pushes Fry over]
      Hawking: Hold him down.
      Deep Blue: Check.
      [Hawking runs Fry over with his wheelchair]
      Fry: Ow! Ow! Ow! Ow!

    13. Re:Integrity by SunPin · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Amigo, I'm sorry to hear about the horrible experiences you've had with the disabled. Since you experienced them in a work capacity, I can only suspect that it was a hospital or social services setting. Unfortunately, *nobody* is mentally well adjusted in those environments. Perhaps you should try spending time around a university or socially progressive areas like South Florida, Southern California, Berkeley, Madison, etc.

      Everybody knows some really bad apples. In college, I knew a guy that pretty much represented everything you wrote. He was a demented fuckup. I remember hearing other disabled kids grumbling stuff like, "as long as that asshat exists, he's going to make things harder on everybody [who is disabled]."

      Hawking is remarkable because of the severity of his disease. I can't imagine living in pain or without my wood but I know what the wheelchair is like and I know guys with the pain/wood issues that are happily married with children and paying their taxes every year.

      It's always annoying to see somebody use "always" or "never". At /., that's usually a tipoff to a troll. I understand what you wrote and how those ideas may have evolved. You have the right to keep them despite anything I or anybody else presents to the contrary. The only thing I ask is that you leave a wider door open for the possibility that you could be entirely wrong.

      It's the scientific thing to do, as Hawking eloquently demonstrates. Furthermore, the disabled know what they are up against. There's no need to make things harder by putting observations from a limited pool of experience into the net. Peace.

      --
      Laws are for people with no friends.
    14. Re:Integrity by magefile · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Only partially true. While it is important to consider whether someone's pain or method of communication is influencing how they behave, it's no excuse. I myself have a severe physical disability, and while I'm not in constant pain, I have had problems with ongoing pain in the past. I meet occasionally with others who have the same disability as I do (it's extremely rare; perhaps less than 10,000 in the world) and it's very frustrating that only two or three of us seem to have normal lives (public high school; college; career; marriage), and the rest are largely dependent on their parents.

      As far as marriage and sex life, I disagree. While a disability can change the dating experience, dating does happen, marriage is always a possibility (Hawking, for example, has been married twice), and sex is not usually limited by disability. Intimacy is not so strictly defined as you might think.

      It all boils down to: is the disabled person in question well-adjusted or not?

  4. an encyclopedia? by guile*fr · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I recall a bet he made involving a subscription to Penthouse.

    1. Re:an encyclopedia? by kfg · · Score: 5, Informative

      Yes, with Kip Thorne. You can find a reproduction of the actual bet document here:

      Penthouse Bet

      Word is that Kip's wife was seriously put out about the payoff. Some people just don't appreciate winning.

      KFG

  5. Of course, the second part of the bet requiring .. by burgburgburg · · Score: 5, Funny

    Hawking to streak naked through the Cambridge campus while screaming "I know nothing about physics!" might be a bit more problematic.

  6. More proof by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative


    we are still guessing, we still have no real idea how the universe works

    and anything is possible, just because we dont know how to do it doesnt mean its impossible, but we wont learn much from peering through the glass of this fishbowl we are living in and proclaiming we know how it all works

    here's to improving guesswork for the next million years

    1. Re:More proof by SEWilco · · Score: 2, Insightful
      We know a hell of a lot about how the Universe works

      Does more water vapor in the air produce thin clouds or tall thick ones? There is a lot we don't know.

  7. From the article: by ideatrack · · Score: 3, Funny

    "Hawking's black holes, unlike classic black holes, do not have a well-defined event horizon that hides everything within them from the outside world".

    I wish he'd called them 'Fry Holes'.

  8. The man's got the Rep by Quirk · · Score: 4, Interesting
    "He sent a note saying 'I have solved the black hole information paradox and I want to talk about it'," says Curt Cutler, a physicist at the Albert Einstein Institute in Golm, Germany, who is chairing the conference's scientific committee. "I haven't seen a preprint [of the paper]. To be quite honest, I went on Hawking's reputation."

    I doubt there are few if any other scientists who could so influence his peers.

    --
    "Academicians are more likely to share each other's toothbrush than each other's nomenclature."
    Cohen
    1. Re:The man's got the Rep by ponxx · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think there are a few people of this stature in any field, just most of them are not as much in the public eye as Hawking.

      I can think of any number of scientists in fields I'm vaguely familiar with that would be granted time to speak at a conference at short notice without much proof of what they are going to say.

      However, *what* they say will still be up to intense scrutiny. There's nothing like proving an eminent scientist wrong or disproving an accepted theory to advance ones career in science...

      Anyway, it's the same anywhere in society. If you have a good reputation, people will at least listen to you. They won't necessary agree, but they will be willing to listen...

    2. Re:The man's got the Rep by simong_oz · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "[...] To be quite honest, I went on Hawking's reputation."

      I doubt there are few if any other scientists who could so influence his peers.


      Playing devil's advocate, is it a good thing? Shouldn't all work be taken on merit and nnot hearsay? Admittedly this is a lightly different situation since Stephen Hawking undoubtedly does actually know what he is talking about in this field, but I can't help feeling that it undermines some of the fundamental scientific principles?

      --
      "Because it's there." - George Mallory, when asked why he wanted to climb Mt Everest, March 18, 1923 (New York Times)
    3. Re:The man's got the Rep by JohnFluxx · · Score: 4, Insightful

      What are you on about? His reputation, in this case, is allowing him to speak at conferences without prior peer review. Speak. That's it.
      It's not like it's going to be accepted as the 'currently known correct view' without peer review. It's just a talk.

    4. Re:The man's got the Rep by Alomex · · Score: 2, Informative
      I doubt there are few if any other scientists who could so influence his peers.

      Edward Witten is equally influential, with the distinction that he holds such influence both in the physics and the mathematics community.

      Sir Michael Atiyah on Witten:

      ... [Witten] has made a profound impact on contemporary mathematics. In his hands physics is once again providing a rich source of inspiration and insight in mathematics. Of course physical insight does not always lead to immediately rigorous mathematical proofs but it frequently leads one in the right direction, and technically correct proofs can then hopefully be found. This is the case with Witten's work. So far the insight has never let him down and rigorous proofs, of the standard we mathematicians rightly expect, have always been forthcoming.
  9. I like their sense of humor by Saven+Marek · · Score: 4, Interesting

    ""Since Stephen has changed his view and now believes that black holes do not destroy information, I expect him [and Kip] to concede the bet," Preskill told New Scientist. The duo are expected to present Preskill with an encyclopaedia of his choice "from which information can be recovered at will"."

    I like the sense of humor of these guys. Its comforting to know that there is something shared between some of the spectalcular minds and the rest of us that we can relate to.

    I wonder about the transform that must happen with the information when it gos into a black hole. For example radio waves. Or maybe light or matter. How is that all preserved if it is only turned into the one kind of radiation? is it just transformed and maybe its original form lost? or say something else? If a spaceship were to fall into a black hole would not the information of that matter ever being a spaceship and say maybe occupants be obliterated?

    The largest adult anime collection on the net

    1. Re:I like their sense of humor by JamesP · · Score: 5, Funny

      The duo are expected to present Preskill with an encyclopaedia of his choice "from which information can be recovered at will"."

      So... Your encyclopedia has been thrown at the nearest blackhole... Since you proved me wrong, you'll be quite able to recover the information presented in it...

      --
      how long until /. fixes commenting on Chrome?
  10. Hooorah! by TreadOnUS · · Score: 2, Insightful

    For a scientist of his stature to admint he was wrong is a credit to the man and the profession. Especially since he went and did the additional leg work (no pun) to validate the theory himself.

    1. Re:Hooorah! by BlackHawk-666 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That's probably *why* he is admitting he is wrong. It's not to humble himself and say "I goofed" but to put forth a new theory that he has worked on. This stuff is all so theoretical in any case that I expect him to need to buy two sets of encyclopaedias, just for the bulk discount so he can save some cash next time he is wrong ;->

      --
      All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
    2. Re:Hooorah! by TreadOnUS · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This is the stuff good science is made of. Science advances when you move past being wrong and discover what's behind it.

      I only wish I was better at it ;-)

    3. Re:Hooorah! by Kombat · · Score: 3, Interesting

      For a scientist of his stature to admint he was wrong is a credit to the man and the profession.

      Uhm, this isn't the first time he's been wrong. Indeed, the whole field of science is built upon scientists making educated and well-reasoned theories, then trying to prove it wrong. Pretty much all of our presently widely-accepted rules have come about this way. Many of them are even still called "theories." For example, "The Theory of Flight" has not been conclusively proven as a "Law" yet. Ditto for the Theory of Relativity, the Theory of Evolution, and the Theory of Atoms. We accept most of these ideas as facts nowadays, but the truth is, they're actually still just theories that haven't been proven wrong yet.

      --
      Like woodworking? Build your own picture frames.
    4. Re:Hooorah! by Scarblac · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That's maybe a bit of a oversimplification of what a theory is. To the best of my knowledge theories will never promote to law. Sure it happened for newton, though it shouldn't have.

      Exactly. It doesn't matter whether it's called Foo's Law, Bar's Rule of Bla's Theory. Science deals with theories, period.

      Apparently, kids learn in US schools that Theories are less "proven" than Laws, etc. That's rather unfortunate, it's nonsense. It leads to non-arguments like "But evolution is just a theory!". Duh. So is the idea that gravity exists...

      (Sorry, pet peeve)

      --
      I believe posters are recognized by their sig. So I made one.
  11. Don't bet on black holes... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    ..the odds get longer the nearer you get to it.

    :)

  12. WTF? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    WTF is "Steven" Hawking? His name is Stephen

    1. Re:WTF? by trevinofunk · · Score: 2, Funny

      Or "the Hawkman" for those of us down with his rap albums

    2. Re:WTF? by schemanista · · Score: 3, Funny

      I think he wants us to call him "H-Diddy" now.

      --
      I saw that shot more than a few times back when Starbuck was a man. ~ lucabrasi999
  13. I heard Hawking left his wife some time ago... by vudufixit · · Score: 2, Funny

    He rolled away with the nurse that took care of him, or so I heard. On another note, check out www.mchawking.com - apparently he's had a second career as a gangsta rapper. A good 'nine will leave a few black holes in anyone, eh?

    1. Re:I heard Hawking left his wife some time ago... by hkb · · Score: 4, Interesting

      He left his wife for his nurse in 1990. According to his ex-wife, she started having an affair with a family friend in 1985, and at some point after that and before 1990, Mr. Hawking even sanctioned this affair.

      More info here:

      http://www.salon.com/books/log/1999/08/12/hawkin g/

      --
      /* Moderating all non-anonymous trolls up since 2004 */
  14. Castles in the sky by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    We are a long way from "proving" anything about black holes. All we are doing is producing theories that don't conflict too badly with the observed evidence. We're in the same position as 'scientists' in the middle ages describing planetary motion. They had a theory that accurately predicted the motion of the planets but that didn't mean that they understood the underlying process (ie. that the sun was the center of the solar system).

  15. The full terms of the bet are more interesting by dominux · · Score: 5, Informative
    Hawking bet against himself so he would have a consolation prize if he lost. Some time in the intervening years the bet changed a bit.

    "Whereas Stephen Hawking has such a large investment in general relativity and black holes and desires an insurance policy, and wheras Kip Thorne likes to live dangerously without an insurance policy.
    Therefore be it resolved that Stephen Hawking bets one years subscription to PENTHOUSE as against Kip Thorne's wager of a 4-year subscription to PRIVATE EYE, that Cygnus X-1 does not contain a black hole of mass above Chandrasekhar limit."
    It was signed by Stephen Hawking and Kip Thorne.

    for those not of these shores Penthouse is a top shelf soft porn mag and Private eye is a current affairs/political satyrical publication.

  16. What encyclopaedia by houghi · · Score: 2, Interesting

    From the article:
    The duo are expected to present Preskill with an encyclopaedia of his choice "from which information can be recovered at will".

    The bet was about an encyclopaedia. The time when the bet was made that was still a lot of books. Later it became some discs. Now it is Wikipedia or even the Internet, if you like.

    So is he going to give a way an AOL CD? ;-)

    Seriously, I wonder what he(or you) now sees as an encyclopaedia or something "from which information can be recovered at will".

    --
    Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
    1. Re:What encyclopaedia by PhuCknuT · · Score: 2, Informative

      Well it's Preskill's choice of encyclopedias, so Hawking can't just be a wiseass and give him a link to wikipedia. :)

  17. actually that was a different bet by dominux · · Score: 2, Informative

    now I look at it in more detail, never mind though. Here is a link to the original bet.

  18. Which Bet? by 4of12 · · Score: 2, Informative

    A number of years ago I saw a show where Hawking had mad a different bet with Kip Thorne concering the nature of black holes.

    IIRC, the loser had to buy the winner a copy of Penthouse.

    --
    "Provided by the management for your protection."
  19. Re:Of course, the second part of the bet requiring by pjt33 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Indeed - there isn't a Cambridge campus.

  20. Re:how much was the bet? by Slowtreme · · Score: 4, Funny

    The usual. One Dollar.

    --
    Post: Sigged, for your pleasure.
  21. My world is crumbling by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    Steven Hawking fallible.

    Bush wrong on the weapons of mass destruction.

    I don't know who to believe in anymore.

  22. Oh... by DecayCell · · Score: 5, Funny

    So it is safe to store my data in a black hole?
    Great!

  23. Re:Dupe by ctid · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This is not a dupe! The story from March was a group of scientists at Ohio State University which disputed Hawking's position. This story is about Hawking himself giving a paper at a conference in Ireland, where he will presumably give his latest views on the topic.

    I'm a little surprised that the parent poster got moderated up for this. It's not "informative" (IMO of course) to just call something a dupe without checking.

    --
    Reality is defined by the maddest person in the room
  24. Why I read Slashdot by bhima · · Score: 5, Funny
    This article is prime example of why I read Slashdot: I read the article, I knew about the bet and found it interesting. Within *minutes* of this article being posted all of the ideas I had when reading it have been posted:

    Steve Hawkins is an interesting and cool guy (Actually so is Kip Thorne)

    I wish I could tell my grandkids I won a bet against Steven Hawkins (or for that matter lost it)

    I wonder if the encyclopedias will be on CD?

    I like the sense of humor of these guys.

    What a reputation! To be granted time to speak, without prior notice as to topic and specific content.

    Wasn't he on Conan?

    42

    It's scary so many people think like me!

    No I will not comment on donkeys or toner cartridges!

    --
    Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
  25. Re:Of course, the second part of the bet requiring by Bugster · · Score: 5, Funny

    Not too big, but cold enough in winter to give extra meaning to the phrase "vanishing black hole".

  26. John Titor by arudloff · · Score: 2, Funny

    Did John Titor submit these? ;)

  27. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  28. Re:Dupe - NOT! by Rob+Carr · · Score: 2, Informative
    This was posted back in March.

    The article from back in March talked about Samir Mathur's approach to the "Information Problem" with black holes. He uses string theory to show that the information may always be available and may, in fact, affect the "Hawking radiation" (the radiation that comes from black holes which allows them to evaporate - guess who discovered it?).

    Hawking seems to be taking a different approach that is not dependant upon any particular theory like strings. The approach is especially interesting because it involves uncertainty in the position of the event horizon. Back in the early 70s, physicists noted a parallel between black holes and thermodynamics. One could assign a black hole "entropy" based on it's diameter. But since nothing could escape from a black hole, the black hole would have a "temperature" of absolute zero. This would result in a violation of thermodynamics. Most physicists were willing to accept this, but thanks to clues provided by the ability to extract energy from a rotating black hole, Hawking figured out that black holes did evaporate, which gave them a very low but non-zero "temperature." His basic analysis involved pair production near the event horizon - one particle would escape, one wouldn't, and the "invented" mass would need to be given up by the black hole. An alternative way of looking at the problem involved how the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle would make the exact location of the event horizon vary slightly.

    Information theory has significant parallels with thermodynamics. One might argue that they are actually the same thing expressed differenntly, except that black holes have an "information temperature" of zero. This violates the equivalent law in information theory that black holes were thought to violate in thermodynamics.

    Having learned from history, many folks thought that some way would be found to extract information from a black hole. Hawking made the bet against what he hoped was true. His thought was that, if he was wrong, at least he'd win something!

    It's interesting that the solution to the information problem may actually involve the alternative path that solved the thermodynamic problems with black holes, and that the alternative way of looking at things (the string theory approach) involves the behavior of particles.

    When physicists speak of "beauty" they are usually referring to some behavior that is symmetric. The solution to the information problem might be thought of as beautiful because of the symmetry with the solution to the thermodynamic problem.

    --
    This sig seemed like a good idea at the time....
  29. Re:Hawking is a bad gambler. by Bill,+Shooter+of+Bul · · Score: 4, Informative

    He made that bet as a joke. All of his work was on black holes so he made a bet with kip Thorne that they didn't. So if all of his work was about things that didn't exist, he would still have won the bet. He finnally conceeded in 1997, and paid off his bet with a couple of playboys.

    --
    Well.. maybe. Or Maybe not. But Definitely not sort of.
  30. Who is this Steven Hawking fellow? by Senjutsu · · Score: 4, Insightful

    And does he have any relation to Stephen Hawking?

  31. Re:But by Cat_Byte · · Score: 2, Funny
    -> 42

    wow...a negative is greater than 42? Its more complex than I thought!

    --
    Two roads diverged in a wood, and I - I took the one the bus load of girls just went down.
  32. I've spotted a mistake of his by hype10 · · Score: 5, Funny

    He would certainly be under intense scrutiny. In fact, when reading his book (The Universe in a Nutshell) I spotted a mistake that I've never seen mentioned. Unfortunately it was just a missing space between two words. I was still quite proud though...

  33. Not all he's cracked up to be... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Hawking is a better than average physicist, but he is far from the best... What he is very good at is explaining advanced concepts in a way that the educated (but not advanced degree in physics holding) crowd can understand.

    He is also good at taking credit for work that is not his own. He has on 2 occasions had to apologize to professor Jimmy York for claiming Jimmies ideas as his own. Rumor has it that Jimmy says Hawking has done it again, but has not yet apologized this time.

    He and his main collaborator (Roger Penrose) are widely regarded as ass holes (actually referred to as the twin ass holes) who capitalize greatly on other peoples work without doing much themselves in the cosmology community.

    Posted AC to protect my fiancé (a cosmology PhD student), the source of most of my info on Hawking...

    1. Re:Not all he's cracked up to be... by untaken_name · · Score: 5, Funny

      Shame on you, basing your opinions on anecdotal hearsay evidence from your SO! What kind of dumbass are you? Don't you know that on /. it's proper to formulate your opinions based on Internet-posted hearsay and anecdotal evidence! Tsk, tsk!

    2. Re:Not all he's cracked up to be... by d474 · · Score: 3, Funny

      Actually, this is little known: Years ago Hawking was a closet computer scientist. He developed what at the time was rumored to be a form of AI. His goal was to teach the AI theoretical physics in order to assist him in his declining physical abilities to research. As he lost his faculties the AI computer was equipped with a voice synthesizer. He's actually been brain dead for about 14 years - all his "latest work" is being done by this AI.

      Well, at least, that's what this Postal Service employee told me down at the local pub. Cliff is usually right on about these things....

      --
      Authority questions you. Return the favor.
    3. Re:Not all he's cracked up to be... by mausmalone · · Score: 2, Funny
      He is also good at taking credit for work that is not his own.
      I call it a Hawking hole.
      --
      -=-=-=-=-=
      I'd rather be flamed than ignored.
    4. Re:Not all he's cracked up to be... by DynaSoar · · Score: 3, Informative

      "He and his main collaborator (Roger Penrose) are [widely] regarded as ass holes (actually referred to as the twin ass holes) who capitalize greatly on other peoples work without doing much themselves in the cosmology community.

      Posted AC to protect my fiancé (a cosmology PhD student), the source of most of my info on Hawking..."

      And precisely how wide is your fiancé?

      I've dealt with Penrose and find him to be quite the opposite of this assessment. I've dealt far more with a "competitor" of his, Basil Hiley, who I'm certain would say the same.

      Granted, writing a book about everything Roger Penroseish as an irrelevant introduction to a severely misguided "theory" on "consciousness" was a failure in the scientific sense, it was at least entertaining to those interested in tiling problems and such.

      As to his "consciousness" theory (in quotes because it has yet to be objectively defined) when asked just how the brain went about processing the stuff he proposed, he responded "I have no idea. I'm just a physicist. That's why I came to talk with you psychology people."

      I know people from the extreme opposite camp from Penrose in the field of "consciousness" studies, and doubt I could find any who considered him to be an asshole without making themselves into one in the process.

      --
      "I may be synthetic, but I'm not stupid." -- Bishop 341-B
  34. Re:No such word as "maths" by Filecore · · Score: 5, Informative
    "Mathematics" is often shortened to "maths" in the UK. I have never called it "math" nor I don't think I've ever met another Brit that would call it such.

    http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=maths

  35. Information is not physical by Chaos_Thoery · · Score: 2, Interesting

    "I wonder about the transform that must happen with the information when it gos into a black hole. For example radio waves. Or maybe light or matter. How is that all preserved if it is only turned into the one kind of radiation?" With out going into too much detail, think of it this way: a hologram can be considered a 2-dimensional object that holds the information of 3-dimensions... A lot of physics at this level involves bending your mind around concepts that are nearly impossible to visualize; you simply have the math in front of you and then you try to interpret it.

  36. Re:Hawking is a bad gambler. by HFXPro · · Score: 4, Funny

    The original bet was for a subscription to Playboy. It was to Penthouse and Kip Thorne's wife was none to happy about it.

    --
    Reserved Word.
  37. Re:Or... by untaken_name · · Score: 2, Funny

    umm. Your post would have made a greater impact had you chosen a different method of setting the word 'taught' apart. You see, the connotation when one puts quotation marks around a word spelled incorrectly in a previous post is that one is making fun of the previous poster by quoting the misspelled word. You have placed the corrected word in quotes, which is confusing since the word 'taught' does not appear in the post you are replying to. You should either have used "tought" or taught to make a better impact. The way you did it makes you appear to believe 'taught' to be incorrect. Your message is spot on but your delivery was a bit off. I'm not intending any offense by this, but you may, of course, feel free to take some.

  38. I wonder... by JofCoRe · · Score: 2, Funny

    Will he be releasing a new rap song relating to this new revalation? :)

    --

    Place sig here.
  39. lol, slashdot lots stupid now. by Blitzenn · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Or is that slashdash. A five second Google search would have told the author of the article and the moderator that they had the wrong name, rotflmao! It's hard to look smart when you make really dumb mistakes like that!

  40. That cheap bastard !!! by shachart · · Score: 5, Funny

    The about-turn might cost Hawking, a physicist at the University of Cambridge, an encyclopaedia because of a bet he made in 1997

    hawking:~> wget -r http://wikipedia.org | tar czf - | mail preskill@caltech.edu

    --
    Those who can, do. Those who can't, consult.
  41. Wonder if he will change the name by SnowPunk98 · · Score: 2, Funny

    I call it a hawking hole.

  42. Entropy? Implications for Beckenstein Bound? by capologist · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Anybody know what implications, if any, this has for the entropy of black holes and the Beckenstein Bound?

    I thought that the entropy of black holes was determined by the fact that the only information needed to describe it completely was its mass, charge, and spin. The entropy computed from this assumption is proportional to the area of the event horizon, and, hence, we get the Beckenstein Bound.

    At least, that's what I thought. But if a black hole, in fact, contains information about everything that has fallen into it, wouldn't that affect its entropy, and hence imply that the Beckenstein Bound is wrong, and therefore overturn some very significant ideas resulting from the Beckenstein Bound, such as the Holographic Principle?

    If that were the case, this would be a much bigger story than it appears to be, so what am I misunderstanding?

  43. Re:Hawking is a bad gambler. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Are you kidding? Do you know how much tail he has gotten? Talk about overcoming adversity. I'd hang out with Stephen Hawking. He is dope.

  44. Futurama quote by Viking+Coder · · Score: 5, Funny

    Nichelle Nichols: "It's about that rip in space-time that you saw!"
    Stephen Hawking: "I call it a Hawking Hole."
    Fry: "No fair! I saw it first!"
    Stephen Hawking: "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?"

    (And then here's the MP3 of this great quote.)

    --
    Education is the silver bullet.
  45. Uncertainty and Stiffness by ajs318 · · Score: 3, Funny

    Imagine a very long, stiff rod. Now when you push, pull or twist one end, the other end must also move. But it can never take less time to transmit this movement than the time it would take a photon to reach the other end, otherwise information would be travelling faster than light, which is Not Allowed. (*)

    Think of it as being like a load of tennis balls in a drainpipe: you stick one in your end, the next one squashes a bit, then moves a bit and recovers its shape, squashing the next one a bit, and so on. The molecules are not bonded to each other with absolute rigidity. And there is a quantum limit to how stiff matter could ever be.

    Which fits right in with Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, somehow or other. At least, it did when I was conducting experiments outside of the realms of physics and more into the domains of chemistry ..... and botany .....


    * OK, two particles which always have opposite spin, blah blah blah, one in your lab, one in a spaceship several gigametres away, you expend an obscene amount of energy reversing the spin on yours, and the spin on the far one reverses at the exact same time. But so what? You can't use the phenomenon to impart any useful information to the other party. You already knew that the spins would always be opposite.

    --
    Je fume. Tu fumes. Nous fûmes!
  46. Re:Hawking for President!! by nusuth · · Score: 2, Informative

    He must have gained faith very recently because he said about a decade ago that he doesn't believe a god exists.Either that or you don't want truth to ruin a good joke.

    --

    Gentlemen, you can't fight in here, this is the War Room!

  47. Tasteless, but true... by RareHeintz · · Score: 2, Funny

    When I was in college, some friends and I (all physics majors) were having a bull session about whether or when someone would cough up a Grand Unified Theory. It was eventually agreed that it would depend largely on when the good Dr. Hawking died.

    At the time, I don't think any of us thought he would still be around at this late date. Anyway, glad to see he's still kicking (so to speak) and doing new work.

    OK,
    - B

  48. Re:Anybody else flash on the poker game? by Wampus+Aurelius · · Score: 2, Funny

    I believe Einstein said to Hawking, "The Uncertainty Principle won't help you now. All the quantum fluctuations in the universe won't change the cards in your hand."

    And Hawking showed his hand, which was 4 aces, and said, "Wrong again, Albert."

  49. I can't believe it... by theendlessnow · · Score: 2, Insightful
    He's going to potentially lose a bet on the makeup of something we don't even know exists as stated?!!

    What ever happened to science? We truly live in an age where science fiction has become accepted as reality. Beam me up, Scotty!!

  50. Re:Which laws? by The+Only+Druid · · Score: 5, Informative

    It violates the third law of thermodynamics, that the universe moves towards an increasingly entropic state.

    Look at it this way: if all the matter in the universe were condensed into a black hole which in doing so destroyed all the information about that matter, the universe would be less entropic than before the black hole consumed everything.

    Hawking radiation was in fact initially proposed as a means of seeming to counteract that: the radiation emitted due to quantum pair formation at the event horizon was calculated so that the following was always true: the Hawking radiation contributed more entropy to the universe than the infalling matter could have contained. Considering that the event horizon increases with the mass of the black hole, the balance was maintained.

    String theory, for several reasons, has changed some of the underlying theories, hence the upcoming speech.

    --
    "Stumble before you crawl"
  51. Re:Which laws? by Y2 · · Score: 5, Informative
    Look at it this way: if all the matter in the universe were condensed into a black hole which in doing so destroyed all the information about that matter, the universe would be less entropic than before the black hole consumed everything.

    That is exactly wrong. Black holes radiate (no pun intended) a black-body spectrum, which is a spectrum of maximal entropy. This had been proven several different ways by the mid-seventies. If black holes destroyed information, which radiation, containing no information, would be the end of the story. (Pun intended, this time.) However, ...

    In QM, physical processes are represented by "unitary operators", which cannot destroy information. If you're familiar with Liousville's theorem in classical mechanics, it's a bit like that.

    --
    "But all your emitter and collector are belong to me!"
  52. Hawking's humor by NYTrojan · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I attended a lecture of Hawking's once at UCSB and let me tell you, he has an excellent sense of humor.

    For a specific example he was talking about how he once gave a lecture in Paris about black holes, and after about 30 minutes realized that they didn't understand a thing he was talking about. It turned out that they thought he was talking about something obscene. He played off this for quite a while, ending with his dismissal of the black hole modled after string theory (fuzzball black holes) in which he claimed "A black hole has no hair... but this just confused the French even more"

    it was quite something to watch one of the most brilliant minds in the world make jokes about the Simpsons and Star Trek while discussing Q-physics and whatnot.

  53. Re:Entropy? Implications for Beckenstein Bound? by stigin · · Score: 5, Informative

    Okay some facts about black holes: - The no hair theorem says that a black holes is described by 2 parameters, the mass M and the angular momentum J (classical spin if you must use that word). In case of a charged black hole you have to add the charge Q to get 3 parameters. From this one can argument that once information falls in a black hole it is lost since we only see 3 parameters. But others say that is just trapped inside the black hole. (the jury is still out) - The Beckenstein-Hawking formula (giving the bound) is related to the radiation of a black hole in the following way. A black hole radiates thermal radiation, with that one can associate a themprature, with that temprature an entropy wich after calculation turns out to be proportinal to the area. - Since this is proportinal to the area t'Hooft suggested tha holographic principle. - I don't think this is a real problem now, since no-one said that the infomation is really lost, so recuperating it might not be a problem. What could be is that the radiation turns out to be non thermal and then it could de harder (no idea how to do that) to calculate the entropy classically. But string theory for instance can calculate the entropy explicitly without the need for thermal radiation and an associated themprature. Hope that helps somewhat (hope I made only correct statements too)

    --
    #1) Respect the privacy of others. #2) Think before you type.
  54. now if he could just resolve some other issues by nusratt · · Score: 2, Funny

    "the black hole becomes a giant tangle of strings"

    like the tangle of strings that prevents my paychecks from escaping the black hole of the Treasury department . . .
    or the tangle of strings that prevents my civil liberties from escaping the black hole of John Ashcroft . . .
    or the tangle of strings that prevents my time from escaping the black hole of slashdot . . .

  55. Question about black hole formation by Bruce_Nash · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Perhaps someone here can clear something up for me about the formation of black holes...

    Let's say I'm watching something (a gigantic encyclopedia, say) collapse to form a black hole.

    As the object collapses, its gravitational field gets stronger, and therefore, as observed from my vantage point, the time dilation effect gets stronger. i.e. From my perspective, the collapse proceeds ever more slowly. Although it never stops collapsing, I don't believe I would observe it actually turn into a black hole in a finite amount of time.

    From the point of view of someone standing on the surface of the object, the reverse happens -- time in the universe outside seems to accelerate, to the point where the universe ends before the black hole is created.

    So... my question is... are black holes actually formed in the universe, from our perspective? Or are there just a bunch of objects that look almost exactly, but not quite, like black holes (because they've been collapsing for billions of years)? Or were all the black holes created in the big bang? Or is there some neat trick that allows a nearly-black-hole to flip into a really-black-hole?

    Sorry for the slight digression... it's just a question that's been bugging me for years.

    Bruce

  56. I found Jesus here... by zoloto · · Score: 3, Funny
  57. Re:Which laws? by JPMH · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Black holes radiate (no pun intended) a black-body spectrum, which is a spectrum of maximal entropy. This had been proven several different ways by the mid-seventies. If black holes destroyed information, which radiation, containing no information, would be the end of the story.
    Um, no.

    Maximal entropy = maximum number of corresponding microstates. The universe is in just one of those microstates, not any of the others, so in selecting that microstate the Hawking radiation does actually represent an real flow of information.

    If this is enough to guarantee that the Second Law of thermodynamics is obeyed, as the previous poster suggested, ie that

    Entropy rate of the Hawking radiation + change in entropy of the black hole > all the entropy of particles falling into the black hole
    then there's no really fundamental reason why the whole thing shouldn't be compatible with a more fine-detailed, deterministic quantum description for the whole process.

    Can anyone here confirm that second-law inequality ?

  58. Re:Which laws? by Y2 · · Score: 2, Insightful
    If black holes destroyed information, [Hawking/black-body] radiation, containing no information, would be the end of the story.
    Um, no.

    Maximal entropy = maximum number of corresponding microstates. The universe is in just one of those microstates, not any of the others, so in selecting that microstate the Hawking radiation does actually represent an real flow of information.

    Classically, every system can always be viewed as being in one microstate. Then there is no such thing as entropy. Obviously, that would be a confused and useless view.

    For a given amount of energy radiated, a black body spectrum represents the great possible entropy. I'm not sure whether you have confused yourself, or one of us has confused the other and we actually are in agreement. (I'm reasonably certain I have not confused myself!)

    If this is enough to guarantee that the Second Law of thermodynamics is obeyed, as the previous poster suggested, ie that

    Entropy rate of the Hawking radiation + change in entropy of the black hole > all the entropy of particles falling into the black hole

    then there's no really fundamental reason why the whole thing shouldn't be compatible with a more fine-detailed, deterministic quantum description for the whole process.

    Except for that unitarity problem (and the superfluous word "rate" and the fact that it's greater than or equal, because the incoming energy may also be black-body), this is correct. And assigning to the black hole an entropy equal to 1/4 its surface area (times enough c's, G's, k's and h-bar's to make the units work out) makes the formula correct.

    --
    "But all your emitter and collector are belong to me!"
  59. Not really a mistake... by medscaper · · Score: 4, Funny
    Unfortunately it was just a missing space between two words.

    No, he really meant "therapist".

    --
    Any sufficiently well-organized Government is indistinguishable from bullshit.
  60. Particles escaping black holes? by Linux_ho · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I read an article a while ago proposing that black holes with high rotational velocities lose more radiation near the equator. I wonder what would happen if two black holes collided at extreme velocity and broke apart enough to lose the "black hole" effect, becoming many small scattered chunks of high-density space debris. Is that possible? If so, wouldn't that count as returning information too? Hawking's new work seems to support that possiblility...

    --
    include $sig;
    1;
    1. Re:Particles escaping black holes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Black holes cannot break apart; that's the upshot of the "area theorem" that Hawking proved. Anything colliding with a black hole just makes a bigger black hole. The only way a black hole can shrink is via Hawking radiation, but that can't cause the event horizon to split into two horizons.

  61. James Gleick no fan... by GPLDAN · · Score: 2, Interesting

    In his biography of Feynman, "Genius", James Gleick basically comes out and states that there is a cult of personality around Hawking. I need to grab the book and find the exact passage, but he states that some physicists and cosmologists have gotten way too much pub due to their personal afflictions. And that many others who are perfectly healthy have had their work overlooked because they aren't in a wheelchair.

    I don't know if it's quite that vitriolic, but I remember reading it and thinking "wow, he's no fan of Hawking."

    Gleick's new biography is on Issac Newton, so perhaps he will have something else to say about modern physicists in there, I haven't read it yet.

  62. Re:Which laws? by JPMH · · Score: 5, Informative
    Classically, every system can always be viewed as being in one microstate. Then there is no such thing as entropy. Obviously, that would be a confused and useless view.

    On the contrary, it's a most valuable view, and very helpful for seeing why unitarity and/or determinism is fundamental to the Second Law, not in opposition to it.

    It reminds us always to remember that the entropy is not a property of the universe itself, but rather it is a property of the description of the universe -- coarse-grained and inevitably simplified -- that we have chosen to adopt.

    So, in the simplest terms, we think of the universe evolving from one of a set of initial microstates M1 through a complicated black-box operation to one of a set of subsequent microstates M2. Because of determinism, each initial state in M1 evolves to exactly one subsequent state in M2. But our description of the initial state -- in terms of macroscopic variables &c -- is not sufficient to identify the microstate. Our description is missing some of the information, and this is the entropy S1.

    If we could perfectly map our whole initial distribution of possible states through the black box, microstate by microstate, then our final entropy would still be exactly S1, reflecting the deterministic evolution of that initial distribution of states. But inevitably we can't follow all of the shuffling in the black box in that detail, so some of our initial information ceases to be useful -- with the result that at the end of the process there is more information we are missing, so S2 >= S1.

    So the Second Law inequality rests on two things: the total amount of information there is to know remains the same (because of the determinism); but the amount of useful information we actually have has fallen (because we couldn't follow the shuffling) -- and that is why the difference between the two, the entropy, the information we don't have, has increased (or at best remained the same). The second law does not conflict with the assumption of determinism: it depends on it.

    This carries over directly to quantum mechanics, where the meaning of unitarity is essentially a guarantee that volumes in the phase space are preserved -- a grid of microstates maps forward to another grid of microstates the same size. Again, this does not conflict with the second law; it guarantees it.

    In terms of the accounting, it's very important that the microstate of the Hawking radiation does represent information about the state of the universe, but information that we don't have.