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Strong Methane Emissions On the Siberian Shelf

rrohbeck writes "The Independent reports brand-new results of high concentrations of methane — 100x normal — above the sea surface over the Siberian continental shelf. A large number of methane plumes have been discovered bubbling up from the sea floor. This is probably due to methane clathrate, buried under the sea floor before the last ice age, breaking up as higher water temperatures melt the permafrost that had contained it."

582 comments

  1. Hollow Men by ozmanjusri · · Score: 5, Funny

    So this is how the world ends. Not with a bang but with a flatulent belch of ancient methane.

    --
    "I've got more toys than Teruhisa Kitahara."
    1. Re:Hollow Men by Chris+Rhodes · · Score: 5, Interesting

      On the bright side, we might get to test this theory. http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn2088

    2. Re:Hollow Men by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      humanity dies from a giant fart. I seriously didn't see it coming.

    3. Re:Hollow Men by AoT · · Score: 5, Funny

      One could, i suppose, call it silent but deadly.

    4. Re:Hollow Men by MrCreosote · · Score: 2, Funny

      Who let the dogs out!!??

      --
      MrCreosote Meow!Thump!Meow!Thump!Meow!Thump! "You're right! There isn't enough room to swing a cat in here!"
    5. Re:Hollow Men by jcwayne · · Score: 4, Funny

      This dinosaur's last gas(p).

      --
      Failure to follow this advice may result in non-deterministic behavior.
    6. Re:Hollow Men by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      > On the bright side, we might get to test this theory.

      Wait. We might have the world's biggest fart on our hands, and your "bright side" is that we get to "test" (smell?) it? 0_o

    7. Re:Hollow Men by JStegmaier · · Score: 1

      When I saw this story, I tried to guess what the top post would be: a far joke or a pro/anti-global-warming theorist.

      Glad to see I guessed correctly.

    8. Re:Hollow Men by Gerzel · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Eh. While it isn't good, remember this is one of the cooler portions of Earth's history, and we are technically still in an iceage. So it can get quite a bit hotter and life will still be sound.

      Sure our civilization might not like it but life will go on.

      We've got a long way to go before the run-away venusian greenhouse effects are seen. Still that doesn't mean we should do nothing.

    9. Re:Hollow Men by Fluffeh · · Score: 2

      This is /.

      Was there every any real question as to the first post?

      --
      Moved to http://soylentnews.org/. You are invited to join us too!
    10. Re:Hollow Men by Pentagram · · Score: 3, Interesting

      So it can get quite a bit hotter and life will still be sound.

      An important aspect of the problem is the speed at which warming is occurring, not just the overall temperature change. The faster the increase, the more difficult it is for life to adapt. And the rate at which change is happening is unprecedented.

    11. Re:Hollow Men by gbobeck · · Score: 5, Funny

      "Pull My Finger!"
      --Earth

      --
      Navicula hydraulica plena anguilarum est. Omnes castelli tuus nostri sunt. Ed elli avea del cul fatto trombetta.
    12. Re:Hollow Men by RedWizzard · · Score: 0

      Eh. While it isn't good, remember this is one of the cooler portions of Earth's history, and we are technically still in an iceage.

      Care to back that up? Looking at this, it's pretty clear that we are not in an iceage.

      So it can get quite a bit hotter and life will still be sound.

      Sure our civilization might not like it but life will go on.

      Sure, I don't see many people denying it. But what will it do to our economy?

    13. Re:Hollow Men by Lars+T. · · Score: 4, Informative

      > On the bright side, we might get to test this theory.

      Wait. We might have the world's biggest fart on our hands, and your "bright side" is that we get to "test" (smell?) it? 0_o

      Methane is odorless. Farts only contain up to about 10% methane. And before you ask: the methane produced by ruminant livestock usually is exhaled or "burped", not farted. Any more Urban Warming Myths?

      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

    14. Re:Hollow Men by Ambitwistor · · Score: 4, Informative

      Yes, we are in an "ice age", technically speaking. That's geologically defined to be when there are still large continental ice sheets in both hemispheres, such as Greenland and Antarctica. What we are in right now is an "interglacial" part of an ice age, a period when the ice sheets are not as large as they are in a full glacial period. See Wikipedia.

    15. Re:Hollow Men by kiwimate · · Score: 1

      That's Siberia all right.

      In this last of meeting places
      We grope together {in a fog of ancient methane} and avoid speech
      Gathered on the beach of this tumid river.

      So much for death by slowly spreading nuclear fall-out cloud. I suppose Australia and New Zealand will still be the last to go as the gas works its way into the southern hemisphere.

    16. Re:Hollow Men by oldspewey · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So it can get quite a bit hotter and life will still be sound.

      Sure our civilization might not like it but life will go on.

      Sure, I don't see many people denying it. But what will it do to our economy?

      Never mind the economy, what will it do for the survival prospects of 6.7 billion people?

      As a species, we are appropriating the majority of earth's productive capacity for our own survival. There are already numerous regions that are ecologically stressed (i.e. they have been pushed basically to the limit of their ecological carrying capacity). A reduction in global carrying capacity, even of just 10 or 20%, is not good news for our species. Look at the lives of people living in ecologically marginal lands - they are not worried about the economy, they are worried about the fact they have to walk 5km one way to get drinking water. They are worried about the fact that food insecurity is driving a societal breakdown. That's the future that's in store for billions more if (when) a climate change crisis really starts to kick in.

      To respond to the GP - Earth will do just fine if humanity disappears. Life will indeed go on.

      --
      If libertarians are so opposed to effective government, why don't they all move to Somalia?
    17. Re:Hollow Men by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

      Could this methane be used as a source of energy?

    18. Re:Hollow Men by KGIII · · Score: 1

      Well, sometimes goatse gets here pretty quick. Sometimes the racist first comments or just the plain frosty piss are right up there on top too.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
    19. Re:Hollow Men by Troed · · Score: 1

      As a species, we are appropriating the majority of earth's productive capacity for our own survival

      No. Such a statement is only true if you base your projections on there being absolutely no technological advancements whatsoever in ANY area in the future.

      Not likely. In reality the technological development rate is accelerating.

    20. Re:Hollow Men by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      There is a great deal of improvement of ecological stress that could be done but we're just not wealthy enough to do it or the areas that are stressed are under political control of such corruption that any money going in mostly gets thrown into foreign secret bank accounts instead of actually improving things. There's nothing technical that stops african agriculture from getting US style yields but they don't because the money isn't there. There's nothing technical stopping the provision of clean water anywhere in the planet. It's just too expensive for our current wealth level.

      Growing rich is the only cure for ecological stress absent dictatorial control over reproduction and population reduction at genocidal levels.

      I'll take growing rich, thank you.

    21. Re:Hollow Men by Brigadier · · Score: 1

      if you fart into an open flame will your ass really explode ??

    22. Re:Hollow Men by monsterzero2002 · · Score: 0

      | Sure our civilization might not like it but life will go on.

      And what civilization would that be?

    23. Re:Hollow Men by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 0, Troll

      And your statement is only true if we stop breeding to the edge of our capacity.

      When our population is at the limit- any minor problem can cause the entire thing to collapse.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    24. Re:Hollow Men by jellomizer · · Score: 1

      just put a spark next to it and you get your bang

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    25. Re:Hollow Men by Troed · · Score: 2, Insightful

      No and no. There's neither an "edge" nor a "limit".

      (I'll refrain from pointing out the usual obvious agendas when people bring up "uncontrolled breeding" ... )

    26. Re:Hollow Men by jbezorg · · Score: 2, Funny

      Well, it all started when the Earth was just 13 million years of age. One day, while walking with some friends, The Earth accidentally cut the cheese. Well, in it's adolescent awkwardness, The Earth blamed it on an old gypsy woman who happened to be passing by. Big Mistake! The gypsy woman placed a curse upon it's head. Because the Earth smelled it, she decreed the Earth would forevermore BE HE WHO DEALT IT!

      --
      I've lost all my marbles except one & It's fun to test angular & centripetal acceleration in my skull
    27. Re:Hollow Men by kiatoa · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You are correct, there is no edge or limit. However there it seems pretty likely we will see a negative correlation of quality of life with population - if we aren't already seeing it now.

      What good is a population of 20 billion on the planet if everyone is packed into endless cities? If you value open spaces, good food, clean air, nice beaches, hiking trails not packed wall-to-wall with people, wild areas with an actual range of wild animals and so forth then you probably would like to see some limits to grow of human population.

      Carrying capacity and technological advances are irrelevant.

      My vision of the world as inherited by my kids and their kids is not a Coruscant city planet. In my opinion 6.5 billion may already be too much. Is it technically feasible to get all 6.5 billion of us up to a quality of life matching the US middle class (which is arguably not asking much)?

      --
      90% of the wealth is in 2% of the pockets. Bummer to be in the majority.
    28. Re:Hollow Men by Troed · · Score: 1

      In ~30-50 years you'll be able to get all those open areas, beaches, hikes and wild animals - perfectly simulated and you would be unable to tell them from the real thing.

      I haven't got a problem with that. You obviously do. There's no way around that difference of opinion.

      We are nowhere near running out of resources - and I think Asimov dealt with this quite nicely. There are probably those who think 12 entities are too many on a single planet, and those who don't have a problem with a trillion.

    29. Re:Hollow Men by bunratty · · Score: 1

      We are nowhere near running out of resources

      Right. Tell that to the 25,000 people who die of starvation every day. It's okay. We have plenty of resources. We were just too goddamn lazy to actually get them to you to save your lives.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    30. Re:Hollow Men by Troed · · Score: 1

      Yes .. ?

      (I don't know if you were trying to be funny but that's exactly what it's about ... and technological advancements will solve it as well)

    31. Re:Hollow Men by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's a reason why the term assplode was invented.

    32. Re:Hollow Men by bunratty · · Score: 1

      Yes, exactly, technological advancements are what we need. We need alternative, carbon-neutral energy sources to keep even more people from dying due to the effects of global warming. Technological advancement costs money. Carbon taxes can help to encourage these advances more quickly. I'm glad you agree.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    33. Re:Hollow Men by kiatoa · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Hmmm, is your post genuine or troll? Anyhow, maybe there is a good way around that difference in opinion. Since a simulated reality is all you want it seems that you would be quite happy with the Matrix like warehouse of bodies plugged into the simulator.

      So, those of us who value reality can have the surface of the planet and for those happy with simulated reality there will be mile after mile of underground warehouses for you to live your simulated lives.

      Since your taste and smell inputs are simulated we can probably extract enough nutrients from our sewage to keep the lot of you alive and happy. I'd say we have a win-win.

      --
      90% of the wealth is in 2% of the pockets. Bummer to be in the majority.
    34. Re:Hollow Men by Troed · · Score: 1

      You value reality? How do you know you're in "reality" right now? What is "you"?

      (In reality, pun intended, "you" are currently living in a simulation created by your neural pathways)

    35. Re:Hollow Men by Joe+the+Lesser · · Score: 1

      It's not unprecedented if you look at the great extinctions...

      --
      "I only speak the truth"
      Karma: null(Mostly affected by an unassigned variable)
    36. Re:Hollow Men by kiatoa · · Score: 1

      True, I can't prove that it isn't all a big simulation. However it is one hell of a simulation and it's all we've got. Since you seem comfortable with living what for me would be a lie (debates about reality aside) then you should be happy to take the path I outlined previously.

      Yes, or no - are you happy to be plugged into a machine in an underground warehouse? If are honestly proposing that a planet with 20 billion people will be fine because the population can just plug into the machine for a little nature time then it seems to me you should be fine with the proposal I put forward. Still seems like a win-win to me.

      --
      90% of the wealth is in 2% of the pockets. Bummer to be in the majority.
    37. Re:Hollow Men by QRDeNameland · · Score: 1

      Well, sometimes goatse gets here pretty quick.

      In a sense, this may be one time when goatse might actually be appropriate, what with the world facing a giant killer fart and all.

      --
      Momentarily, the need for the construction of new light will no longer exist.
    38. Re:Hollow Men by Troed · · Score: 1

      I see no reasons why we would need to keep biological bodies around. Uploading, as I see it, is absolutely a win-win situation.

      (I wasn't just pointing out that you can't prove whether we're in a simulation - no matter what you believe, unless you're religious of course, the concept of "you" is a simulation created by your brain anyway)

    39. Re:Hollow Men by kiatoa · · Score: 1

      I think it a little odd how you didn't quite answer the question. Not that you are obligated to, but it implies to me that you may not really be ok with the idea of you new-worlders being "uploaded" while us old-fogies get to keep hanging around in the physical world. The win-win for me is if *you* get uploaded freeing up some space for me and like minded folk to enjoy the physical world, mosquitoes and all. We promise to keep the power on, really we do.

      --
      90% of the wealth is in 2% of the pockets. Bummer to be in the majority.
    40. Re:Hollow Men by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      This is how strongly people have their head in the sand.

      you even *broach* the idea of population being a problem, you are ridiculously downmodded.

      TOO MANY PEOPLE is the fundamental problem.

      The larger our population- the worse it is when there is a disruption of services.

      A hurricane or earthquake are causing more damage because we have more people. More people are dying before and after disasters because when you lose electricity and food delivery- there is no option but to die.

      At the bloody *least* we could stop giving people $4000 to $8000 a kid to have more kids.

      We could stop supporting conditions that lead to rapid population growth.

      Or we can keep downmodding any discussion- saying everything is fine and fall off a cliff like the market did.

      There was only a 1% chance that would happen too.

      The downside of a huge population and ANY KIND OF DISRUPTION is horrific. And people won't even consider it and just pretend everything will work perfectly as we stack more and more people per square inch.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    41. Re:Hollow Men by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Sigh...

      Okay-- these days they say "It would do more harm than good to even attempt to evacuate".

      What happens when Cities have 50 million people in them in scores of highrise buildings and the power fails due to a storm or earthquake? They just sit there on the 40th floor and die?

      Yes- there *IS* a blocking frakking limit.

      At the current rate the number of people will equal the weight of the world in about 500 years.

      That's clearly impossible.

      So we can either artificially constrain the population (like china *wisely* did) at 4-5 billion people (lower tha n today's population because we are already over the earth's carrying capacity and causing fish population collapses, huge hundred mile areas of plastic in the oceans, and flushing 10,000 years of topsoil down into the sea.

      But you folks don't get it. It's ALREADY TO LATE.

      We are past the point of no return and are no better than deer. We'll breed til we die off due to a food interruption or a war over some scant resource or both.

      My god you blind fools piss me off. Worse than the idiots who built all these stock market derivatives. At least they at least SAW the 1-2% chance of this result and conciously decided to take the risk instead of refusing to consider the risk in the first place.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    42. Re:Hollow Men by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      A reduction in global carrying capacity, even of just 10 or 20%, is not good news for our species.

      For our species, it's not really a problem until we're down to a few hundred thousands of individuals. There'll still be a good sized chunk of genetic biodiversity in a population that size, and given sufficiently improved conditions, a rebound is perfectly reasonable. The other 6,699,600,000 or so of the population aren't particularly important in terms of the species and the gene pool. (Assuming a reasonably random way of selecting who survives and who is culled.)

      "gigadeath" is a word that I'm trying to get people to seriously contemplate. It's going to happen, and while it in no way excuses the actions of Uncles Adolf, Joe, Ghengiz and "1918 influenza strain", it does put their rather paltry efforts (not even a half a gigadeath between them) into perspective. My guesstimate for the long-term (megayear) carrying capacity of the planet is closer to a gigaperson than it is to the present population. "gigadeath" then becomes a necessary part of the vocabulary.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    43. Re:Hollow Men by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1
      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  2. Own up by gringer · · Score: 2, Funny

    Alright, who farted a few hundred thousand years ago?

    --
    Ask me about repetitive DNA
    1. Re:Own up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      He who smelled it, dealt it. (I'm looking at you, gringer!)

    2. Re:Own up by oldhack · · Score: 1

      Please, everyone, please, don't bring politics into this. I lost my lawn doing that.

      --
      Fuck systemd. Fuck Redhat. Fuck Soylent, too. Wait, scratch the last one.
    3. Re:Own up by zoogies · · Score: 2, Funny

      He who made the rhyme, did the crime...

      (I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin'...)

    4. Re:Own up by DeadDecoy · · Score: 3, Funny

      I did! I just stuck it in the fridge so I could share with friends and family later. Enjoy!

    5. Re:Own up by Xaemyl · · Score: 0

      Whoever smelled it, dealt it.

    6. Re:Own up by Hognoxious · · Score: 2, Funny

      The one who denied it supplied it.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    7. Re:Own up by tristian_was_here · · Score: 1

      You said the word you did the turd

    8. Re:Own up by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      You sang the song, you made the pong.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  3. Methane's not a greenhouse gas, right? by Talisein · · Score: 3, Funny

    Luckily the methane emissions won't cause further warming. Hurray!

    --
    "The right to do something does not mean doing it is right." William Safire
  4. Is it recoverable? by zappepcs · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Could this be used to drive electric plants? Is it recoverable? Anyone have a match? A really fucking big match?

    1. Re:Is it recoverable? by Walkingshark · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I doubt it. I saw a special on the discovery channel about this stuff once, and they basically said it is so diffuse and spread out on the ocean floor that there is no economic way to recover it. And I doubt it is concentrated enough to achieve ignition in open air.

      --
      The world you experience is only a close approximation of reality.
    2. Re:Is it recoverable? by BluBrick · · Score: 1
      --
      Ahh - My eye!
      The doctor said I'm not supposed to get Slashdot in it!
    3. Re:Is it recoverable? by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      I saw something once about a lake in Siberia, if you make a hole in the ice on top of it the methane that comes up is concentrated enough to burn. The presenter nearly blew himself up demosntrating it.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    4. Re:Is it recoverable? by electroniceric · · Score: 1

      Funny, I had the same thought, and it turns out someone is pursuing it:

      http://www.eee.columbia.edu/research-projects/sustainable_energy/Hydrates/index.html

      What's particularly appealing is:
      a) even if you capture and burn the stuff that's bubbling up, you're still reducing the overall GHG load, but even better, if you
      b) capture the effluent CO2, it may be possible to push it into the sediments in replacement for the methane clathrates.

      The latter seems pretty far off, but if these reports of "chimneys" of rapid release are right, they could be a decent candidate for capture. You'd have to have some kind of mobile apparatus for capture, and I have no idea how hard that is. Maybe you could use it to power a small data center in a floating enclosure?

    5. Re:Is it recoverable? by zappepcs · · Score: 1

      I'm with you on the chimney thing... semi-submerged 'tents' for collection should not be *that* difficult to build/maintain, as it is in cold water already, capturing it cold (deeper than surface) might be an even more attainable goal. Once containerized, getting it to the surface should be rather easy. I think the trick would be to containerize it as deep as possible, then ship to be used for generating power. A floatilla of light weight containers shouldn't cost to much to ship to a local-ish power generation station as an auxiliary energy source for the generation process. You can find interesting information here http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&output=googleabout&btnG=Search+our+site&q=energy%20density%20methane

    6. Re:Is it recoverable? by jbezorg · · Score: 1
      This?

      Methane Bubbling From Arctic Lakes, Now And At End Of Last Ice Age

      ScienceDaily (Oct. 26, 2007) - A team of scientists led by a researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks has identified a new likely source of a spike in atmospheric methane coming out of the North during the end of the last ice age.

      Methane bubbling from arctic lakes could have been responsible for up to 87 percent of that methane spike, said UAF researcher Katey Walter, lead author of a report printed in the Oct. 26 issue of Science. The findings could help scientists understand how current warming might affect atmospheric levels of methane, a gas that is thought to contribute to climate change.

      "It tells us that this isn't just something that is ongoing now. It would have been a positive feedback to climate warming then, as it is today," said Walter. "We estimate that as much as 10 times the amount of methane that is currently in the atmosphere will come out of these lakes as permafrost thaws in the future. The timing of this emission is uncertain, but likely we are talking about a time frame of hundreds to thousands of years, if climate warming continues as projected."

      more

      --
      I've lost all my marbles except one & It's fun to test angular & centripetal acceleration in my skull
    7. Re:Is it recoverable? by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      [Is the methane recoverable]

      I doubt it. I saw a special on the discovery channel about this stuff once, and they basically said it is so diffuse and spread out on the ocean floor that there is no economic way to recover it.

      I've seen and participated in this debate repeatedly on oil rigs, in rooms containing in excess of a hundred man-years experience of geology, marine engineering, pipeline installation, pump engineering and related, relevant engineering disciplines, as well as the management that would have to run such projects efficiently and keep them within budget. (There was also normally food on the table, and coffees afterwards, but no alcohol. Alcohol is banned on professional drilling rigs. Unless you're French.)
      No-one would say it was impossible ; but the consensus (repeatedly, with different groups of participants) is that it's going to be horrendously expensive to recover, there will be a lot of leakage of methane into the atmosphere, and it's going to require whole new fleets of specialist, ice-hardened, single-purpose designed vessels, as well as the marine crews to keep them on station and on course.
      Not impossible ; extremely hard ; interesting professional challenges. No hint of people with serious plans to try it. We keep our communal ears to the ground, because we the marine oil-drilling communities, are the people who would be first recruitment pool to be used to do it. Silence on the hiring front. Deduce from that what you will.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    8. Re:Is it recoverable? by Zwicky · · Score: 1

      Could this be used to drive electric plants?

      That's an interesting idea but I fear we would be better investing in electric cars. Much to my chagrin, I yield to common sense in feeling that Jayce's world is better left as a fiction.

      --
      "Three eyes are better than one" -- Lieutenant Columbo
  5. Methane is worse than Co2 by EmbeddedJanitor · · Score: 4, Informative

    By a factor of 27 or so. That's why effluent processing plants will burn the stuff off (apart from the fact it gives them some power).

    --
    Engineering is the art of compromise.
  6. Needs more study by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Let's look at this for a few decades and see if it's really happening.

  7. Could this explode? by lwsimon · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So, what happens if lightning strikes over one of these plumes?

    --
    Learn about Photography Basics.
    1. Re:Could this explode? by Walkingshark · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It changes the spectrum of the flash a little.

      --
      The world you experience is only a close approximation of reality.
    2. Re:Could this explode? by SpaceLifeForm · · Score: 3, Funny
      A blue scene of death.

      Actually, there are very few lightning events over the ocean compared to over terra firma, but they do occur, especially when you are trying to save important objects.

      --
      You are being MICROattacked, from various angles, in a SOFT manner.
    3. Re:Could this explode? by Saige · · Score: 1

      Actually, there is the possibility that methane being released underwater may end up with enough water mixed in with it that it may stay close to the surface. If this is true, we could end up in situations where large clouds of methane stay low and drift along with high enough concentrations that if it drifts over land, it could kill most of the life.

      It could even reach concentrations where lightning could cause combustion, resulting in massive firestorms, stripping areas bare.

      I'm not sure if it's in the "likely" column, but it's a scary, scary scenario.

      --
      "You know your god is man-made when he hates all the same people you do."
  8. Well by Walkingshark · · Score: 4, Funny

    We're advising all our customers to put everything they have into canned foods and shotguns.

    --
    The world you experience is only a close approximation of reality.
    1. Re:Well by DirtySouthAfrican · · Score: 1

      Canned foods? Isn't that what got us into this whole methane problem in the first place?

    2. Re:Well by Walkingshark · · Score: 1

      No, it was feeding my girlfriend too much blackbean and leek stew.

      --
      The world you experience is only a close approximation of reality.
    3. Re:Well by failedlogic · · Score: 1

      That's all I have right now. Saved for everthing else. Any suggestions what to buy?

    4. Re:Well by Tubal-Cain · · Score: 4, Funny

      My PC doesn't fit in canned food. It doesn't run as well, either.

    5. Re:Well by religious+freak · · Score: 1

      Buy some Chinese currency. That's an asset that is guaranteed (as much as any investment can be, that is) to hold and likely increase its value relative to the dollar.

      --
      If you can read this... 01110101 01110010 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100111 01100101 01100101 01101011
    6. Re:Well by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Chinese currency is artifically pegged to the US dollar by the Chinese government, ironically the US has been complaining about that for years.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    7. Re:Well by Jesrad · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The peg was removed back in 2005. I wouldn't put my own savings into the RMB/Yuan anyway, because the Chinese have invested massively in the very same failing securities that are bankrupting everyone left and right. They hold, for example, over 300 billions $ worth of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and I suspect this is the prime reason for their bailouts: the Feds don't want China to register heavy losses so they don't liquidate their $ assets.

      Somehow this is a bit comparable to how the Fed kept inflating during 1925-1928 to keep the Sterling Pound afloat... which brought us the 1929 recession and stock krach.

      --
      Maybe we deserve this world ?
    8. Re:Well by Valdrax · · Score: 2, Funny

      Because of the end of civilization, the Clamp Cable Network now leaves the air. We hope you've enjoyed our programming, but more importantly, we hope you've enjoyed... life.

      --
      If it's for-profit but free, you're not the customer -- you're the product (e.g., the Slashdot Beta's "audience").
    9. Re:Well by init100 · · Score: 1

      Whoosh!

      Paraphrasing Joe Pesci as Harry of the Sticky Bandits in Home Alone 2: That was the sound of a joke, flying over your head.

    10. Re:Well by waferbuster · · Score: 1

      It sure cuts down on the rate of virus infections, though. Just at a guess, I'd say canning your computer is just as effective as Norton Antivirus and provides about the same amount of slowdown.

      --
      I'm an individual! Just like everyone else!
    11. Re:Well by religious+freak · · Score: 1

      Chinese currency is still pegged, despite what the uninformed post below says. It trades within a range, but is still mightily "managed" by the Chinese government and is likely at least 15-20% below true value, if not 25-50%.

      China cannot sustain an undervalued currency forever, for a number of reasons. I'm not saying you should liquidate your stocks and put everything in it, but along with stocks, bonds, gold and silver, Chinese currency has its place. And is likely the safest asset class out there.

      --
      If you can read this... 01110101 01110010 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100111 01100101 01100101 01101011
    12. Re:Well by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

      Just to note, that the peg was removed, but replaced by a different peg. The RMB is now tied to a basket of currencies, of which the USD is only one component.

      As a side note, related to where to put assets right now, there are no economies completely immune to the problem in the US. Some have more exposure to US-based risk than others, but no country is unaffected -- we have a truly global economy.

      The biggest thing I worry about is a global inflationary spiral. If we can keep US price inflation under 5% for five years or so, I think we'll be OK in the long run... but inflationary pressure from other currencies may make this impossible... in which case, I think we're looking at a global depression.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    13. Re:Well by King_TJ · · Score: 1

      You're just not good enough at case-modding then!

      People have already managed to put them in beverage containers:

      http://www.mini-itx.com/projects/bubbacomp/

      http://metku.net/index.html?sect=view&n=1&path=mods/whiskypc/index_eng

    14. Re:Well by steelfood · · Score: 1

      But those capacitors on your mobo might make for excellent shells though.

      --
      "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
    15. Re:Well by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      We're advising all our customers to put everything they have into canned foods and shotguns.

      "Alas, Babylon".

      Falcon

  9. Re:Speculation by psychicninja · · Score: 3, Informative

    Except that these are _recent_ findings. The outer core of the Earth has been molten for a long, long time. (At least, heck, 6000 years or so)

  10. Re:Speculation by Walkingshark · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Um.. what? You do know that the depths of the ocean tend to be very cold, right? Or are you suggesting that somehow the crust is thinning beneath the methane deposits and warming them, but at the same time there are no seismic events tied to this phenomenon, even though it is happening across a very large geographic region? Or are you just talking out your ass?

    --
    The world you experience is only a close approximation of reality.
  11. not the warmest temps by timmarhy · · Score: 1

    we aren't currently getting the warmest temperatures of this century, so why has it just started now??

    --
    If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    1. Re:not the warmest temps by thevoice · · Score: 1

      Latency.

    2. Re:not the warmest temps by Chirs · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Maybe a warming trend has lasted for long enough that it's finally hit the ocean bottom in that area?

    3. Re:not the warmest temps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      we aren't currently getting the warmest temperatures of the summer, so why did my fridge die today??

    4. Re:not the warmest temps by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Informative

      "we aren't currently getting the warmest temperatures of this century, so why has it just started now??"

      It's called thermal inertia, however your question is still interesting.

      I have followed the IPCC for many years and one of their biggest failures in accuracy has been what is sometimes called the "missing methane" problem. The 1997 IPPC report (and those that followed) predicted methane would keep rising but the follow up observations have (until now) shown the trend to be flat for the last 10yrs or so.

      In otherwords the question is not why has it started rising again but rather why did it take an unexpected break for a decade?

      BTW: I find it odd that the psuedo-skeptics have not lept on the missing methane issue as a way to discredit the IPCC, surely that would be more plausable than denying the North Pole is disintergrating, but that's politics for ya!

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    5. Re:not the warmest temps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      we aren't currently getting the warmest temperatures of this century, so why has it just started now??

      Obviously! The warmest temperatures of this century will come towards the end of the it and we're not even 7 years into the century yet.

      If you meant to write that some recent years were even hotter globally than this year, well yes. However there are two things to consider: artic temperatures as distinct from global temperatures have been very high; and the cummulative effect of the recent warm years.

    6. Re:not the warmest temps by timmarhy · · Score: 1
      maybe, but the warming trend peaked in the 1930's, well before we were pumping anywhere near the levels of CO2 that we are now. i'm not seeing any kind of relationship here between the popular global warming theory.

      http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=61b0590f-c5e6-4772-8cd1-2fefe0905363

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    7. Re:not the warmest temps by Splab · · Score: 1

      Global warming is the wrong term anyways. Global climate change is what we are looking at - and just because it ain't getting hotter where you are, some areas of the world are seeing 1-2 degrees higher average temperature, which is a big deal.

    8. Re:not the warmest temps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... and some cooler. And some don't change at all. Calling it "climate change" makes me giggle - the climate has always changed.

      12000 - 5000 BCE Sahara was a green lush forest where a civilization existed that moved on to the Nile valley when the desert expanded yet again.

      Maybe it's all the terrorists' fault? In the USA people seem to believe just about anything anyway.

    9. Re:not the warmest temps by Troed · · Score: 1

      From one of the linked articles:

      It is likely that methane emissions off Svalbard have been continuous for about 15,000 years â" since the last ice age

    10. Re:not the warmest temps by ShakaUVM · · Score: 4, Informative

      >>BTW: I find it odd that the psuedo-skeptics have not lept on the missing methane issue as a way to discredit the IPCC

      I think the IPCC has done a good enough job discrediting themselves, with their predictions historically overstating global warming:
      http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001317verification_of_1990.html

    11. Re:not the warmest temps by cirby · · Score: 4, Interesting

      "It's called thermal inertia"

      No, it's really not, at least in this case.

      From the article:

      "It is likely that methane emissions off Svalbard have been continuous for about 15,000 years - since the last ice age - but as yet no one knows whether recent climactic shifts in the Arctic have begun to accelerate them to a point where they could in themselves exacerbate climate change, he said."

      In other words, no, anthropogenic climate change doesn't seem to have a real link to this.

      The "missing methane" problem is still there. Despite this (and other) clathrate/methane releases, actual MEASURED methane in the atmosphere isn't anywhere near high enough to make up the difference in the IPCC's predictions.

      Clathrates at this sort of depth are more pressure-sensitive than temperature-sensitive, and according to the IPCC and others, the oceans are supposed to get deeper as the ice caps melt. So they have to choose one or the other scenario - they can't have both.

    12. Re:not the warmest temps by Yvanhoe · · Score: 1

      The Arctic temperatures anomalies have been exceptional the past few years. I think it is a century record and am confident this is the warmest 10-years period there has been for this century in the Arctic region.

      --
      The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    13. Re:not the warmest temps by Splab · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Indeed the climate changes over time, but this time around 6 billion people are going to be in the ways of Mother Earth - this means we are going to see climate refugees and climate wars, again nothing new, we have always had something to run away from or fight over, the difference this time is the scale its going to happen on.

      Oh also, it might be part of a natural cycle, but you keep saying that to yourself when standing knee deep in water, hoping for someone to pick you up.

    14. Re:not the warmest temps by rrohbeck · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So you say that because one data set of many is off somewhat, all the other evidence (glacier retreat, dissolving ice shelfs, animal and plant habitats shifting northward, and record summer temperatures measured on the ground) isn't real either, and that an obscure paper is the only one that knows the truth?

      Sounds a lot like one of the usual conspiracy theories to me. The corrected data will be used in the next IPCC report, let's see how much it changes.

    15. Re:not the warmest temps by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 2, Interesting

      the warming trend peaked in the 1930's

      Your link fails to make clear that the records it mentions are for the USA only, the global peak for that data set remained 1998.

      --
      a,e,i,o,u and sometimes w and y (at be if of up cwm by)
    16. Re:not the warmest temps by RedWizzard · · Score: 1

      From the article:

      "It is likely that methane emissions off Svalbard have been continuous for about 15,000 years - since the last ice age - but as yet no one knows whether recent climactic shifts in the Arctic have begun to accelerate them to a point where they could in themselves exacerbate climate change, he said."

      In other words, no, anthropogenic climate change doesn't seem to have a real link to this.

      Um, what? That's not what he said at all. He said they don't yet know. That is a radically different position from the "anthropogenic climate change doesn't seem to be linked" that you concluded.

    17. Re:not the warmest temps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > we aren't currently getting the warmest temperatures of this century, so why has it just started now??

      Uh... how far into this century do you think we are?

    18. Re:not the warmest temps by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      I think you missed the 15,000 years part. As far as I know, the human race wasn't driving back then.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    19. Re:not the warmest temps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Deeper, but lighter. Ice has no salt in it.

    20. Re:not the warmest temps by denzacar · · Score: 1

      Wheres your polar ice cap now, nya?!

      Polar ice takes a long time to form - it does not just refreeze in the winter.
      We have been chipping at that temperature ballast for a century or two.

      Remember you Prison Break season 1? The hookers law?
      Once you drill enough holes in something it goes down much easier?

      Or in this case, comes up from the depths of ocean to end our civilization.

      --
      Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
    21. Re:not the warmest temps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The point was that it's going to change no matter what we do (and CO2 has nothing to do with it either). We already know what causes the cycles of warming and cooling, the current climate hysteria is just a result of popular media always being late to the party.

      (Popular media influences people, and politicians will do and say anything to get votes, thus we get a political climate hysteria as a result)

    22. Re:not the warmest temps by sdturf · · Score: 1, Interesting

      I find it odd that the IPCC fails to mention that increased underwater volcanic activity under the arctic has been occurring since at least 1999, including a pyroclastic eruption and one that supposedly was as large as Pompei. Would this perhaps lead to increased water temps that could melt some ice, or would it be better to go ahead and destroy (or at least tax to ruin) western civilization as a precautionary measure? http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080625140649.htm http://sweetness-light.com/archive/could-volcanoes-be-melting-the-arctic-ice

    23. Re:not the warmest temps by AoT · · Score: 1

      And you missed the part where it is "recently accelerating," but thanks for playing.

    24. Re:not the warmest temps by Lars+T. · · Score: 1

      I find it odd that the IPCC fails to mention that increased underwater volcanic activity under the arctic has been occurring since at least 1999, including a pyroclastic eruption and one that supposedly was as large as Pompei. Would this perhaps lead to increased water temps that could melt some ice, or would it be better to go ahead and destroy (or at least tax to ruin) western civilization as a precautionary measure? http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080625140649.htm http://sweetness-light.com/archive/could-volcanoes-be-melting-the-arctic-ice

      Nice try, but there is no indication there is any recent increase. More importantly: if the 1999 eruption had a major (positive) impact on warming, why was 1998 the warmest year?

      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

    25. Re:not the warmest temps by swillden · · Score: 2, Informative

      What matters isn't density, it's the total mass of water, dissolved salts, etc., that creates pressure. Adding water, even if it's distilled, adds mass and therefore pressure even if density decreases.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    26. Re:not the warmest temps by Troed · · Score: 1

      There is such a part? Please quote it :)

    27. Re:not the warmest temps by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      Latency from heat that isn't there?

    28. Re:not the warmest temps by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      The cure isn't to make massive adjustments of dubious efficacy (ie Kyoto). The cure is to create cheap orbital space flight and install a freaking planetary thermostat so that you can influence the raw input (solar radiation reaching the Earth) enough to stabilize temperature no matter how the climate is changing.

      That means a planetary shade for when it's warm and mirrors for when it's cold. It's orbital megalithic architecture.

    29. Re:not the warmest temps by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      You may want to keep an eye out for this temperature station monitoring project. Over the next decade they're going to actually do the first world-wide check on urban heat island bias. They're about halfway done with the USA and going international after that effort is complete.

      There isn't just problems with one data set, but multiple ones.

    30. Re:not the warmest temps by Kevin72594 · · Score: 1

      Wrong, still heavier. Just because we're adding something that is lighter doesn't mean that we are taking weight away. We're just adding less than we would be if ice did have salt in it.

    31. Re:not the warmest temps by Kevin72594 · · Score: 1

      Man, I really need to update the page before I post, sorry for the dupe!!

    32. Re:not the warmest temps by Troed · · Score: 1

      I assume you're joking (since global temperature wasn't even up for discussion there) - but the 1998 anomaly is well known to be because of a strong El Nino.

    33. Re:not the warmest temps by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      I find it odd that the IPCC fails to mention that increased underwater volcanic activity under the arctic has been occurring since at least 1999, including a pyroclastic eruption and one that supposedly was as large as Pompei

      It's not odd; the heat generated by undersea volcanoes is negligible compared to the heat necessary to melt that quantity of ice. This is noted in other press releases. It would actually make a nice physics "Fermi problem" for students to estimate, back of envelope, the amount of ice that could be melted this way.

      or would it be better to go ahead and destroy (or at least tax to ruin) western civilization as a precautionary measure?

      ... and here we descend from a seemingly honest question into insane political hyperbole.

      Clue: "Carbon taxes will destroy the economy" is the conservative scare story version of "global warming will make the human race go extinct". Both are ill informed. You might start by reading A Question of Balance, the new book on climate economics by who is arguably the world's leading climate economist, Bill Nordhaus of Yale.

      Note also that the evidence in favor of global warming is based on far more than Arctic ice melt rates.

    34. Re:not the warmest temps by Ambitwistor · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Should have previewed:

      I find it odd that the IPCC fails to mention that increased underwater volcanic activity under the arctic has been occurring since at least 1999, including a pyroclastic eruption and one that supposedly was as large as Pompei

      It's not odd; the heat generated by undersea volcanoes is negligible compared to the heat necessary to melt that quantity of ice. This is noted in other press releases [canada.com]. It would actually make a nice physics "Fermi problem" for students to estimate, back of envelope, the amount of ice that could be melted this way.

      or would it be better to go ahead and destroy (or at least tax to ruin) western civilization as a precautionary measure?

      ... and here we descend from a seemingly honest question into insane political hyperbole.

      Clue: "Carbon taxes will destroy the economy" is the conservative scare story version of "global warming will make the human race go extinct". Both are ill informed. You might start by reading A Question of Balance, the new book on climate economics by who is arguably the world's leading climate economist, Bill Nordhaus of Yale.

      Note also that the evidence in favor of global warming is based on far more than Arctic ice melt rates.

    35. Re:not the warmest temps by Ambitwistor · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Climatologist James Annan has a whole series of blog posts debunking Pielke's claims, e.g. here and here, here, etc. The short answer is that given the large amount of interannual noise present in the data, the 2.5 C "best estimate" trend is consistent with the observed trend, i.e. you can't say with statistical confidence whether the discrepancy is due to statistical fluctuations in weather or is something real in the underlying climate system. Pielke also makes the common mistake of pretending that the model predictions don't have any uncertainty and that you can "falsify" them based on a single best-guess trend. Actually, now that I look at it, he also used the projected 100-year warming rate, ignoring the fact that the warming rate is lower at the beginning of the projection period and higher at the end; this method will overstate the near-term warming projected.

      For an actual published comparison of IPCC model projections to observations, try here. (Interestingly, they too ignore model uncertainty except for climate sensitivity uncertainty, although that is the largest uncertainty.)

    36. Re:not the warmest temps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But if the oceans get deeper, won't they be heavier and have more gravity, thereby causing the methane to be higher pressure? Bet you didn't think of that, did you, smartypants?

      Huh? Oh, sorry, thought I was contributing to a revised IPCC prediction for a second there.

    37. Re:not the warmest temps by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      What bothers me about Prometheus is that they were told by NOAA to stop pretending NOAA supports their view, thus the NOAA disclaimer plastered all over the site. Try realclimate.org, at least they have the guts to link to the people who disagree with them (such as prometheus).

      Yes the IPCC were wrong about methane as I said in my earlier post, however 'historically' they have underestimated future trends. Not surprising because conservative statements are to be expected when you stop and think how hard it is to get 2500 experts to agree on anything.

      A couple of examples... The IPCC (and even the most alarmed of alarmists) were conservative in their estimations of Artic breakup (an 80-100yr underestimate in 1997 down to a 40-50yr underestimate in 2007). The IPCC were also conservative in their estimation of the rise in emmissions over the last decade, the recent observations comes in just below the IPCC's 1997 "worst case" senario, but since it was still within their range then they "got it right".

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    38. Re:not the warmest temps by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "...or would it be better to go ahead and destroy (or at least tax to ruin) western civilization as a precautionary measure?"

      There are GW alarmists and economic alarmists, you seem to be in the later category.

      "I find it odd that the IPCC fails to mention that increased underwater volcanic activity under the arctic has been occurring since at least 1999"

      I don't find it odd that you would bring up the volcano myth to support your alarmist stance. The IPCC correctly ignored increased volcanic activity because: A) It's not occuring, and B) Even if it was occuring as claimed then the heat created is not enough to be relevant.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    39. Re:not the warmest temps by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Excellent post, just one nit-pick in that I think the sensitivity comment is not very clear. Climate sensitivity is an output of the models (ie: a result). Basically it tells you how much the planet will warm due to a given increase in CO2.

      Most studies are interested in the climate's sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over the pre-industrial level. The uncertainties in the inputs come from the accuracy of the observations, most studies use the IPCC's estimates and uncertainties for known forcings as input.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    40. Re:not the warmest temps by AoT · · Score: 1

      RTFA

      If you can't be bothered to read the article then I can't be bothered to re-quote the damn thing.

    41. Re:not the warmest temps by Troed · · Score: 1

      I've read it, and I know which section you've misunderstood. That's why I thought it would be funny to ask you to quote it - since then you might see where you went wrong.

      So, again. Please quote the section you claim exists.

    42. Re:not the warmest temps by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I thought that too at one time but the increase in CO2 affects more than just temperature. For instance it looks like the increasing acidity of the oceans due to higher absorption of CO2 may cause problems for the marine animals with shells. That includes a lot of plankton that are at the bottom of the food chain. There are probably other "chemical" effects from the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.

  12. Ob. Monty Python by Wowlapalooza · · Score: 5, Funny

    "I fart in your general direction!"

    Love,

    Siberian Shelf

    1. Re:Ob. Monty Python by dvh.tosomja · · Score: 0

      In soviet russia, methane farts you

  13. Re:Speculation by jipn4 · · Score: 1

    "probably warmer water"... Yeah, nothing to do with the fact we're sitting on a huge fucking lump of molten rock and metal.

    That lump was no less molten when those clathrates formed. The fact is that the water temperatures have been going up and that the methane that was trapped long ago is now being released.

  14. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Meh, you guys were funnier when you were being eaten by lions.

  15. yes and no by jipn4 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Methane has an atmospheric half-life of about 7 years (turning into CO2 and water), fairly independent of any biosphere.

    CO2 has an atmospheric half-life of somewhere between 50-100 years, with some nasty feedback (more CO2 = higher temperatures = longer half life).

    So, per-volume, methane is worse, but what's gonna get us is the CO2 because that hangs around much longer and has the positive feedback.

    1. Re:yes and no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      someone mod this up!

    2. Re:yes and no by evanbd · · Score: 4, Informative

      Normally the relative greenhouse strength is corrected for a 100-year period (ie the shorter half life is already accounted for in the 27x number; I haven't checked the number, though).

      It sounds like methane does have a feedback loop -- methane causes warming releases more methane. Sure, there's a limited amount down there, but it's a rather large amount. We'd really rather it stay put.

      Not saying the CO2 isn't bad... but there's no shortage of other effects to go with it.

    3. Re:yes and no by adamchou · · Score: 2, Informative

      Actually, if you look at this based on Global warming potential (GWP), Methane is 25 times worse than CO2 over the course of 100 years. So I think thats why he's saying that methane is still worse.

    4. Re:yes and no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Methane has an atmospheric half-life of about 7 years (turning into CO2 and water)

      OK, so, methane gets a pass because with CO2 you get a half-life of 50 years, but with methane you get a half-life of 7 plus the 50 or so you get when it decomposes into CO2?

    5. Re:yes and no by Jesrad · · Score: 2, Interesting

      CO2 also is already providing the maximum greenhouse effect it can. It reflects/absorbs only a pair of infrared wavelengths and the current density of CO2 in the atmosphere is already catching pretty much all of the solar energy radiated through these bands. Sorry I don't have a link handy.

      --
      Maybe we deserve this world ?
    6. Re:yes and no by jipn4 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Where do you people come up with this sort of nonsense?

      Here's the projected relationship between CO2 concentrations and temperature increase:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:IPCC_AR4_WGIII_GHG_concentration_stabilization_levels.png

      Notice how it keeps going up?

      That's assuming we don't hit some kind of positive feedback loop.

    7. Re:yes and no by Phase+Shifter · · Score: 1

      Ahh, but there you have the answer. Assume the methane is produced at a steady rate...it will eventually reach a steady-state concentration.

      If CO2 has a half life 7-14 times greater than methane, but methane has approximately 27 times greater heating effect per unit volume, then you reduce the net heating effect of the steady-state by 50-75% by burning all the methane.

    8. Re:yes and no by jipn4 · · Score: 1

      GWP is not really a good summary of the danger from global warming gases.

    9. Re:yes and no by Yvanhoe · · Score: 1

      Still the estimate of methane that could be emitted is said to be equal to the amount of the global reserves of coal. Even if it were "only" CO2, it would still give us a nice greenhouse gas supply.

      --
      The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    10. Re:yes and no by XDirtypunkX · · Score: 1

      Proved by "real science" in the last 10 years:
      1) That a blanket keeps you cool at night
      2) To warm up, you should take off all your clothes and lay down in the snow at night.
      3) If you live in a really hot place, you should paint your entire house and all your pets black to keep them cool.

      Let's keep turning over simple laws of physics! Thermodynamics is a giant con!

      *cough* *cough*

    11. Re:yes and no by Chatterton · · Score: 2, Insightful

      more CO2 = higher temperatures

      No. That theory has been soundly rejected by real science in the last 10 years. Get with the times.

      [Citation needed] :)

    12. Re:yes and no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Methane's got a positive feedback mechanism, too - higher temperatures speed up decay of methane clathrates. And since it's more potent, that feedback mechanism could happen much faster than for CO2.

    13. Re:yes and no by MLease · · Score: 3, Funny

      You're referring, of course, to that noted climatologist, Rush Limbaugh?

      -Mike

      --
      I'm sorry; I don't know what I was thinking!
    14. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Where do you people come up with this sort of nonsense?

      Real science. Grandparent is correct, and if you spend a few minutes researching the subject you'll (easily) find his missing link.

      IPCC is a political organisation. AGW is a religion in the US (mostly). I prefer science over both politics and religion.

    15. Re:yes and no by Lars+T. · · Score: 1

      Where do you people come up with this sort of nonsense?

      Real science. Grandparent is correct, and if you spend a few minutes researching the subject you'll (easily) find his missing link.

      IPCC is a political organisation. AGW is a religion in the US (mostly). I prefer science over both politics and religion.

      So you didn't simply link to that information because it is missing?

      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

    16. Re:yes and no by Lars+T. · · Score: 1

      CO2 also is already providing the maximum greenhouse effect it can. It reflects/absorbs only a pair of infrared wavelengths and the current density of CO2 in the atmosphere is already catching pretty much all of the solar energy radiated through these bands. Sorry I don't have a link handy.

      So while increased levels of CO2 do lead to Global Warming (looks like many of the former deniers are even admitting that now), even more CO2 won't anymore, because we're already at a "natural" barrier where it can't - so we can conveniently just continue to produce more.

      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

    17. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      Nah. It's simply a nice way to check who's seriously interested in the facts (that person will easily find the information) and who's just interested in yelling loudly about their latest populistic meme.

      (That's currently "OH MY GOD CLIMATE CHANGE IS GOING TO KILL US ALL" btw, if that isn't obvious .. )

    18. Re:yes and no by Thelasko · · Score: 1

      Methane has an atmospheric half-life of about 7 years (turning into CO2 and water)...So, per-volume, methane is worse, but what's gonna get us is the CO2 because that hangs around much longer and has the positive feedback.

      CO2 and water vapor (yes, water vapor) are the two most important greenhouse gasses. Methane is so bad for global warming because it becomes both. If the stuff is going into the atmosphere anyway, we might as well get some power out of it.

      --
      One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
    19. Re:yes and no by meringuoid · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Real science. Grandparent is correct, and if you spend a few minutes researching the subject you'll (easily) find his missing link.

      Well, why don't you provide that link, then? It's the done thing to cite one's sources when making claims, rather than expecting your readers to do the work on your behalf. After all, if it's such a small job of work, it's better that you do it once, than that every one of your readers should have to do it separately. Unless you enjoy wasting your readers' time?

      I spent a few minutes investigating anyway and found a discussion to the effect that temperature rises logarithmically with CO2 concentrations - as CO2 increases by orders of magnitude, temperature increases linearly. A law of diminishing returns.

      But that's not what the original poster claimed. He claimed that there was a certain CO2 concentration beyond which there would be zero extra warming effect, and moreover that we were already at that concentration.

      So it's quite possible that I'm reading the wrong thing. Or perhaps he was reading the wrong thing. Since neither of us have provided links or citations, we can't go to the source and find out, and so the argument goes nowhere.

      --
      Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
    20. Re:yes and no by Overzeetop · · Score: 1

      I was under the presumption that the greenhouse effect is not due to the amount of solar energy absorbed, but rather the amount of earth albedo absorbed. Since the blackbody temperature of the earth is much lower than the sun, the absorbtion of the radiated energy from the earth is captured by the atmosphere. Since radiation is the only way for earth to cool off, it cools more slowly than without the greenhouse gasses. Radiative gain at the earth from Solar energy, otoh, is not decreased significantly by these gasses, which is why the balance changes.

      Naturally, ianac (climatologist), so there are certainly second order effects which may play a big role in our climate which I'm not accounting for.

      --
      Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
    21. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      Four parts, check the title and the related list to the right for the other three:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDX2ExKYyqw

      (While watching, remember that SC24 is so far nothing but a fizzle)

      You're basically right, and the original poster (rightly) approximated that a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere (which I'm not even sure mankind can accomplish!) resulting in an increase in temperature of 0.2 degrees C or so is "zero extra warming effect".

    22. Re:yes and no by meringuoid · · Score: 2, Informative
      Because of the lack of a link, I'm forced to guess as to what you're going on about. This is why it's important to cite sources. But I made that rant in a more deeply nested reply.

      I think what you're looking at is the infrared absorption spectrum. I quite agree that the principal frequencies at which carbon dioxide absorbs infrared are quite saturated - to a good approximation, all the infrared at those frequencies is absorbed.

      Thing is, though, what happens then? Your molecule absorbs a photon and goes into an energetically excited state. There are two things it may now do. The molecule may collide with others, and the energy be spread as kinetic energy, warming the whole gas slightly. Or alternatively it may drop back to a ground state, emitting a photon at the same characteristic frequency. It's a 50-50 shot whether that photon goes down, back to Earth, keeping the place warm, or up, out to space, cooling the planet.

      So, some percentage of the absorbed photons are re-emitted. Half of those which are, are going up. They'll probably be absorbed again by still more carbon dioxide higher up in the atmosphere. You end up with a statistical matter: how long does a typical infrared photon spend being scattered about in the atmosphere, before it ends up either as heat in bulk matter, or escaping into space? That is the problem. Add more carbon dioxide, and your average photon will have its first absorption sooner, trapping heat nearer the ground. And on average it will have more scatterings before any escape, increasing the likelihood of it becoming absorbed entirely into warm air or ground.

      --
      Real Daleks don't climb stairs - they level the building.
    23. Re:yes and no by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      The question isn't whether CO2 causes warming in isolation and never has been. The question is whether increased CO2 causes warming in a complex system where we just plain don't know what all the feedback loops are doing and how they adjust to increased CO2.

      If, in the end, the increased wealth that CO2 emissions bring you allows you to clean up practices that are polluting and you save more lives than global warming costs, the emissions are worth it even if the most dire of global warming predictions are true.

    24. Re:yes and no by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      That's ok, most of the climatologists aren't accounting for them either.

      The IPCC puts out reports every four years. 5 months ago we found an entire new ocean current important (among other things) in predicting global climate over time, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. That means that all the previous IPCC reports that everybody's got their panties in a bunch over were missing a major factor in their models. Oops. Believe me, it's not the only one.

      The models to this point are GIGO and we're supposed to move trillions in resources around on their say so. That's just insane. It's phrenology on a massive scale.

    25. Re:yes and no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nah. It's simply a nice way to check who's seriously interested in the facts (that person will easily find the information) and who's just interested in yelling loudly about their latest populistic meme.

      (That's currently "OH MY GOD CLIMATE CHANGE IS GOING TO KILL US ALL" btw, if that isn't obvious .. )

      Its must easier to just assume since you didn't provide a free link to a peer-reviewed article to just assume that you're full of it.

    26. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      You're free to assume that, of course, but it's your general knowledge that lacks out :)

      (Link has been posted, albeit to a presentation instead of a single paper)

    27. Re:yes and no by d34thm0nk3y · · Score: 1

      Real science. Grandparent is correct, and if you spend a few minutes researching the subject you'll (easily) find his missing link.

      If it is such an easy assertion to support why did neither of you do so?

    28. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      Link has been posted already. Why didn't you simply google?

    29. Re:yes and no by MrHanky · · Score: 1

      Your "real science" is a fucking Youtube video? A "researcher" in the fields of cancer, climate science and oil exploration?

      Are you out of your mind?

    30. Re:yes and no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because Youtube is a respected academic journal.

    31. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      No, he's the presenter in a video on Youtube.

      (You're free to research the actual topics he's presenting as well, of course. I'll help with one of them: http://www.google.com/search?q=co2+radiative+forcing ). Please verify sources, we don't want you to mix up what's a source and what's someone presenting a few slides again :)

    32. Re:yes and no by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1, Insightful

      You get modded up for nothing but a naked assertion?

      Go ahead, post a citation into the scientific literature which supports this claim.

      P.S. The IPCC doesn't do anything but summarize what's already in that literature. If you think that the science proves something in disagreement with the IPCC summary of that science, cite references.

    33. Re:yes and no by bunratty · · Score: 0

      AGW is a religion in the US (mostly). I prefer science over both politics and religion.

      No, it's just denied most vehemently in the US. First, there is a worldwide consensus among climate scientists that AGW is the cause of most of the warming in the past 50 years. Second, there is an American Denial of Global Warming.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    34. Re:yes and no by bunratty · · Score: 1

      OH MY GOD CLIMATE CHANGE IS GOING TO KILL US ALL

      No, no one is saying climate change is going to kill us all. That would be the alarmism you're claiming. It will only kill some of us due to hurricanes, tsunamis, droughts, and famines. Of course, people already die due to those causes. It's just that more will die as the sea level rises, hurricanes get more intense, and droughts cause water and food shortages. You can educate yourself about the effects of global warming by starting with the Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    35. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      No - there is absolutely not a worldwide consensus. If you really believe that you need to get out more :) With regards to the IPCC specifically; http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/press/ipccprocessillusion.html

    36. Re:yes and no by bunratty · · Score: 1

      I just posted a link to a study showing the consensus. Try actually taking a look at it instead of posting a knee-jerk reaction.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    37. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      It's up to you to believe that GW (don't you mean "climate change"?) will cause more intense hurricanes - that's one recent study. Other's claim the frequency will rise (which that one doesn't, however) - and some say there won't be any measurable difference at all.

      "The main point that we want to emphasise is that there is no evidence in this study that we are seeing large greenhouse-gas-driven increases in Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm frequencies."

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7404846.stm

      (Just a while back a hurricane moving eastwards over the Atlantic was brought up as a sign of AGW - but then we realised ship's records from the 17th century detailed such storms ... )

      http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4449527.ece

    38. Re:yes and no by operagost · · Score: 1

      So if I posted a video of Al Gore on Youtube, he'd also become an instant hack? Sorry, trick question.
      I'm not quite sure which fallacy your "rebuttal" uses: "appeal to ridicule" or "poisoning the well." I'll look it up and get back to you.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    39. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      No, you didn't. I have no idea why you claimed that yet again :)

    40. Re:yes and no by Ambitwistor · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You really need to get out more. Seriously. Go read the journals. Look at the latest few issues of Science, Nature, Nature Geoscience, Journal of Climate, Geophysical Research Letters, Journal of Geophysical Research, Climate Dynamics, Climatic Change, etc. Count how many of the papers dispute the claim, "AGW is the cause of most of the warming in the past 50 years", or predicate their analysis on a contrary claim. Seriously. Go do it before coming back and telling us what the scientific community does and doesn't think. I read most of those journals regularly, and this huge skeptical controversy that pundits claim exists among climatologists, just doesn't exist. Yes, people disagree on things, such as the impacts of climate change on hurricanes. But the basic premise of AGW is widely accepted, and has been for some time now.

    41. Re:yes and no by jipn4 · · Score: 1

      Real science. Grandparent is correct, and if you spend a few minutes researching the subject you'll (easily) find his missing link.

      No, the grandparent is wrong. Claims that absorption is saturated are based on incorrectly looking at peak wavelengths. If you don't recognize this obvious error yourself, you can just look in Section 1.3.1 of TAR:

      It has been suggested that the absorption by CO2 is already saturated so that an increase would have no effect. This, however, is not the case. Carbon dioxide absorbs infrared radiation in the middle of its 15 mm band to the extent that radiation in the middle of this band cannot escape unimpeded: this absorption is saturated. This, however, is not the case for the band's wings. It is because of these effects of partial saturation that the radiative forcing is not proportional to the increase in the carbon dioxide concentration

      One can argue at length about what the exact relationship is, but it is certainly not saturated.

      Furthermore, the radiative relationship is not where the big danger lies; the big danger is in the feedback mechanisms.

    42. Re:yes and no by jipn4 · · Score: 1

      You're basically right, and the original poster (rightly) approximated that a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere (which I'm not even sure mankind can accomplish!) resulting in an increase in temperature of 0.2 degrees C or so is "zero extra warming effect".

      The original poster is full of shit. You can see the expected temperature increases here:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:IPCC_AR4_WGIII_GHG_concentration_stabilization_levels.png

      You can find the science and references behind that graph in the report.

      A doubling of CO2 gives us an extra 4C global temperature, provided there is no positive feedback. With positive feedback, things can get a lot worse, and with a lot less CO2.

    43. Re:yes and no by Ambitwistor · · Score: 2, Informative

      No, 4 C for 2xCO2 is a figure that includes positive feedbacks. Actually, 3 C is the IPCC's best estimate, although they say it is most likely 1.5-4.5 C. Without any positive feedbacks, it's more like 1.1 C (see Schlesinger and Andronova's 2002 article "Climate sensitivity" in EGEC). Of course, there are plenty of positive feedbacks which exist, and those lead to the IPCC's estimate. However, there are some positive feedbacks that people worry about which the IPCC didn't include in their assessment, because they are difficult to quantify, including some potential carbon cycle responses and Greenland ice sheet dynamics.

    44. Re:yes and no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Another bogus notion pulled out of a hat.

    45. Re:yes and no by jipn4 · · Score: 1

      You're right that the graph includes some positive feedback; what I meant by "positive feedback" was unknown extra positive feedback that can really screw us, not the effects that are already included (water vapor, ice, etc.).

      The reason I gave the graph originally was because if CO2 absorption were saturated, then there should be no increase at all, since you can only have positive feedback if there is some growth.

    46. Re:yes and no by bunratty · · Score: 1

      Here it is again: http://norvig.com/oreskes.html

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    47. Re:yes and no by bunratty · · Score: 1

      I watched the first part of the video, and I didn't see any evidence that contradicts the AGW hypothesis. The best data I saw was the one data set from one rural station showing temperatures decreasing over the last 50 years. On the other hand, the warming we're experiencing is warming of the global average. The climate models all predict that some areas of the Earth will get colder. In short, the data showing one local decrease in temperature says nothing about the global change in temperature. The rest of the video was about what occurred long ago, and doesn't have anything to do with the hypothesis that most of the warming in the past fifty years is due to increased CO2 in the atmosphere and that global warming will continue due to this excess CO2. I want my ten minutes back!

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    48. Re:yes and no by Jorophose · · Score: 1

      Considering the years with the most CO2 in the air, so 1940s to 1970s, also went down in record as being the coldest years (recorded!)...

      That the IPCC is a polit. org,

      AGW has become a cult parading as an idea,

      And that temperatures have been able to drop...

      I don't think you have a leg to stand on with a bassackwards chart.

    49. Re:yes and no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Um, let me see if I understand. CO2 causes absorption and re-radiation which causes the atmospheric temperature to rise. Ok, lets go with that. Then, the atmosphere warms...the ocean??? Can someone give me the thermodynamics equations for that. Here's the question, given the difference in mass between the atmosphere and the oceans, what would delta T need to be to cause the average Ocean temperature to rise by 0.01C over 50 years? Think critically friends.

    50. Re:yes and no by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Neither the 1940s nor the 1970s were the coldest years in the 20th century, globally speaking. The early 1940s were actually a temperature peak, followed by a drop. The cooling in the 1950s through 1970s is due largely to the cooling effects of industrial aerosol emissions (air pollution). (Funny, the skeptics like to bring up non-CO2 sources of climate change when it's convenient to them, but ignore other sources when it's not...)

      Also, the 1940s and 1970s were not the years with the most CO2 in the air. CO2 has increased almost monotonically for the past 150 years, and is now higher than it has been in at least a million years.

    51. Re:yes and no by Jorophose · · Score: 1

      Bombs don't produce CO2?

    52. Re:yes and no by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Very little. And we don't see a huge CO2 spike in the ice core records. They do produce some dust, but even in WWII, I really doubt that had global climatic effects. That's probably when the increase in aerosols took off due to industrialization, though.

    53. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      I watched the first part of the video

      I found the error! Please reply again when you've watched all four.

    54. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      Question: If this was your boss, would you try to publish an AGW sceptic paper?

      (I say try, because some who do get them refused without explanation)

      "James Hansen, one of the world's leading climate scientists [sic], will today call for the chief executives of large fossil fuel companies to be put on trial for high crimes against humanity and nature, accusing them of actively spreading doubt about global warming in the same way that tobacco companies blurred the links between smoking and cancer."

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/06/22/jim-hansen-calls-for-energy-company-execs-to-be-jailed/

      I like science. The AGW frenzy isn't about science any longer though, it has become religion/cult. You're not allowed to be sceptic.

      Shiny epicycles.

    55. Re:yes and no by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Question: If this was your boss, would you try to publish an AGW sceptic paper?

      Ah yes. When all your "scientific" arguements have been disproven, retreat to vague allegations of bias.

      Sorry, if you think there's something wrong with the science, say what it is and be prepared to defend it. You've failed on all fronts so far (and you apparently still haven't even read the papers I cited, since some of them deal with Svensmark).

    56. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      The allegations aren't vague, and a problem with the scientific process is very much on topic.

      I claim that human herd mentality, as many times before throughout history, causes unnecessary hardship for some scientific breakthroughs.

      My "shiny epicycles" should've given that away.

      Now, please answer the question: If Hansen was your boss, would you publish an AGW-sceptic paper?

      (I've read most of the papers you've cited, and also Svensmark's rebuttals of course. It's still a hypothesis with a better match, and more Occam'ish, than the IPCC CO2 wildly spiralling feedback nonsense)

    57. Re:yes and no by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Now, please answer the question: If Hansen was your boss, would you publish an AGW-sceptic paper?

      Yes, if I thought it was right. Now, since you claim to be such a big fan of science over politics, why don't you describe what's wrong with the science instead of resorting to vague allegations of bias.

      (I've read most of the papers you've cited,

      The hell you have. You don't even know what the solar trend looks like.

      and also Svensmark's rebuttals of course.

      Oh, fine, tell me what Svensmark's rebuttal is to Tomassini's estimate of the solar amplification factor. (Clue: he doesn't have one.)

      It's still a hypothesis with a better match,

      Except for the fact that it completely fails to match the surface temperature and ocean heat data, with any feedback factor you care to choose. And if you throw out the surface temperature data, your claim is even more nonsensical since you can't compare solar data to it either.

      and more Occam'ish,

      "The Sun affects cosmic rays which affect clouds which affect reflect sunlight" is not "more Occam'ish" than "CO2 absorbs longwave radiation", especially considering how few links in the former chain are directly supported by evidence.

      than the IPCC CO2 wildly spiralling feedback nonsense)

      Solar-cosmic ray-cloud warming involves all the same feedbacks that CO2 warming does, plus one extra feedback. When the feedbacks apply to CO2 warming, they're "nonsense", but when they apply to solar warming,

      P.S. The IPCC didn't invent the CO2 greenhouse effect or climate feedbacks.

    58. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      You don't even know what the solar trend looks like

      Weird statement to make, since I just corrected you on that subject.

    59. Re:yes and no by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      It's true that at ground level and in the lower atmosphere the energy absorbing capacity of CO2 is saturated but as you increase in altitude that tapers off until there is excess capacity for energy absorption so the increasing concentration of CO2 up there will increase the energy captured.

    60. Re:yes and no by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Weird statement to make, since I just corrected you on that subject.

      No, you didn't correct me. Solar trends have been basically flat for decades (which you still refuse to admit) — anything on the order of a few tenths of a W/m^2 is "flat" as far as the solar cycle or previous trends are concerned — and the solar cycles 22/23 are not high compared to any solar activity that has occurred in the last half century. You simply aren't going to explain a sharp increase in temperatures with solar output that hasn't increased.

    61. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      in the last half century

      You can't be serious. The whole point is that the WHOLE last half century has been stronger than any period of similar length for as long as we've studied the sun.

    62. Re:yes and no by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      The point is that the "stronger solar output" doesn't mean "strong enough, or with the correct time series behavior, to explain the warming we've seen", for reasons I have already exhaustively discussed.

      You can cling to your claims only as long as you choose not to actually plug any numbers in and see what that kind of forcing predicts for the climate.

    63. Re:yes and no by Troed · · Score: 1

      Who disputes that there are unknown factors still in all theories on climate?

      Actually, if anyone would claim that there aren't then I'd immideately claim they're not scientists :)

      (And no, there are no models at all that have made any _predictions_ of value)

  16. Re:Speculation by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Funny

    Or are you just talking out your ass?

    Pun certainly not intended, I'm sure.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  17. Get it while it's hot! by SEWilco · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Of course water is warmer... since the last glacial period... since the Little Ice Age... Oh, but recently oceans and atmosphere have been cooling. Well, there's still that free gas available at the moment - got a funnel and some pipe?

    1. Re:Get it while it's hot! by bunratty · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If you mean that the oceans and atmosphere have been cooling in the Northern hemisphere in the past few months, yes. It is Fall. If you mean they've been cooling for the part several years, no. Global temperatures are still increasing. It's called "global warming." It's why there have been record low amounts of Arctic ice the past several years.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    2. Re:Get it while it's hot! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Geez, you global warming deniers really are total idiots.

      Of course they are. The AGW deniers are usually also the guys believing in an invisible man in the sky magically creating the Earth in seven days 6000 years ago.

    3. Re:Get it while it's hot! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Global temperatures are not increasing. That is why Gore talks about climate change instead of global warming.

    4. Re:Get it while it's hot! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Umm, depends on who you are listening to. How about the National Snow and Ice Data Center who says that Arctic ice is up over 9.6% in areal extent over last year?

      Of course, they don't sell magazines.

    5. Re:Get it while it's hot! by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Please explain how global temperatures can be increasing if the warmest year on record is either ten or eighty years ago, depending on how you look at the data?

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    6. Re:Get it while it's hot! by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      The warmest global temperature on record was not 80 years ago. You're probably getting confused with continental U.S. temperatures, where 1998 and 1934 were statistical ties.

      Global temperatures
      U.S. temperatures

    7. Re:Get it while it's hot! by bunratty · · Score: 1

      You cannot expect every year to be the warmest year on record, even though temperatures are increasing over the long term. The stock market also goes up over time, and yet you do not expect the closing every day to be higher than the last, right? Usually when you have an upward trend, the record high will not be in the very most recent data. That's how global temperatures can be increasing if the warmest year on record was 1998. It's just that 1998 was an unusually warm year.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    8. Re:Get it while it's hot! by Jorophose · · Score: 1

      No, record low amounts of Arctic ice are due to volcanic activity and a lot of human activity in the north.

      Ohai, iz eruptinz ur ice:

      http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.html?id=81bb2fd3-63f1-476f-b0be-f48c0dc90304

      (Please do not show "relatif" charts (like, temps in relation to 40s-70s as people often do) because it's not getting you anything. And of course it's going to get fucking warmer compared to the last few thousand years. We're recovering from an ice age...)

    9. Re:Get it while it's hot! by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Please, go ahead and calculate the amount of volcanic activity necessary to melt several million square kilometers of ice. (Hint: latent heat of fusion is about 330 J/g.) It will be amusing to see how many orders of magnitude you're off by.

      Another hint: we're not recovering from an ice age.
      Third hint: we already recovering from a mild cooling known as "the Little Ice age", and the natural source of warming which explain that recovery simultaneously fail to explain the 20th century warming trend.

    10. Re:Get it while it's hot! by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "Please explain how global temperatures can be increasing if the warmest year on record is either ten or eighty years ago, depending on how you look at the data?"

      I'm assuming you are asking that question in good faith so a good faith answer is to say "statistical inference". But the mathematical naiveity that your question displays means that the "statistical inference" answer will be useless to you since the myriad of "ways of looking" at the data will all seem equally valid. Suffice to say that if you throw away ALL the temprature stats and just look at the physics/chemistry, you can still make a strong case for AGW.

      This is not a criticisim of your intelligence but rather an observation of your lack of knowledge about statistical techniques. Eienstien once replied to a similarly naive question from a reporter - "I cannot tell you how to bake a cake when you have no concept of flour, milk and eggs."

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    11. Re:Get it while it's hot! by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      Oh, but recently oceans and atmosphere have been cooling.

      Citation needed.

      Well, there's still that free gas available at the moment

      I suggested that earlier. However someone who said he works in the drilling industry said it was too expensive to try to capture and transport the methane.

      Falcon

    12. Re:Get it while it's hot! by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      No, record low amounts of Arctic ice are due to volcanic activity and a lot of human activity in the north.

      Volcanic activity is north of Iceland and is not near Russia. Even your link says "The scientists say the heat released by the explosions is not contributing to the melting of the Arctic ice". Here's a map of Gakkel Ridge where the volcanoes are located.

      Falcon

  18. Plumes of methane by clarkkent09 · · Score: 5, Funny

    A large number of methane plumes have been discovered bubbling up from the sea floor over the Siberian continental shelf.

    In other news, the Russian Navy announced a successful test of a submarine powered by a brand new propulsion system. The exact details are still classified, but sources claim there is a mysterious link between it and a new food and beverage contract awarded by the Navy to Taco Bell

    --
    Negative moral value of force outweighs the positive value of good intentions.
    1. Re:Plumes of methane by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're trying to hard, if you aren't careful, you're going to stain those boxers...

    2. Re:Plumes of methane by Muad'Dave · · Score: 1

      ...the Russian Navy announced a successful test of a submarine powered by a brand new propulsion system.

      This makes the Red October's propulsion system silent _and_ deadly.

      --
      Tiller's Rule: Never use a word in written form that you've only heard and never read. You will end up looking foolish.
  19. Re:Speculation by djupedal · · Score: 3, Informative

    Works like this - first the permafrost/ice melts...this reduces/removes the main barrier that keeps the underlying water and sea floor at one relative temperature. Once that barrier is removed, the water and sea floor heat up, with the result being an increase in the release of otherwise captured methane.

    It is actually a very simple, process...one that we could perhaps do without, of course, but hey - the times they are a change'n and Mother Nature is making the calls.

  20. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Why the hell do they put on black robes? I think you're confusing atheists with satanists.

    And seriously, atheists use condoms, so we don't get pregnant, unlike the religious folks who think condoms are immoral.

  21. I can live with the methane by Aussie · · Score: 2, Funny

    but let's just hope it doesn't follow through.

  22. Kids & Ice by quarrel · · Score: 1, Funny

    Damnit. Kids these days.

    In my day we were happy sniffing our own farts the old fashioned way- but no, that wasn't good enough. These days everyone is into their damn methane ice.

    Who thinks this stuff up?

    --Q

  23. OK, this is it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Troll

    We're sooo totally fucked now!

  24. Here is a theory for ya by jmorris42 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    > You do know that the depths of the ocean tend to be very cold, right?

    Normally..... unless there is volcanic activity in the region like is currently going on around the north pole.

    Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes:canada.com

    But oh no, it just has to be global warming. It get shot somewhere: Global Warming! Record cold? That's Global Climate Change for ya. Floods? Drought? Plague of Locusts? Manmade Global Warming every time and the ONLY solution is the destruction of Western Civilization, replacing the values of the Enlightenment with Socialism and Planning.

    --
    Democrat delenda est
    1. Re:Here is a theory for ya by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Have you even read what he posted all the way through? There haven't been any seismic activity (such as a volcano would produce).

      STFU and RTFP.

    2. Re:Here is a theory for ya by unlametheweak · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Manmade Global Warming every time and the ONLY solution is the destruction of Western Civilization, replacing the values of the Enlightenment with Socialism and Planning.

      I think I've met that meme before. Insightful is the new Funny.

    3. Re:Here is a theory for ya by calmofthestorm · · Score: 0

      How did that ignorant propaganda flamebait get modded insightful?

      --
      93rd rule of Slashdot: No matter how obvious my sarcasm is, my comment will be taken seriously by someone.
    4. Re:Here is a theory for ya by Lars+T. · · Score: 1

      > You do know that the depths of the ocean tend to be very cold, right?

      Normally..... unless there is volcanic activity in the region like is currently going on around the north pole.

      Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes:canada.com

      "Currently"? You guys are grasping for every straw, aren't you? Must be the water rising.

      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

    5. Re:Here is a theory for ya by mspohr · · Score: 2, Insightful
      I don't think the GP understands the values of the Enlightenment'. From our friend Wikipedia:

      The Age of Enlightenment or The Enlightenment is a term used to describe a phase in Western philosophy and cultural life centered upon the eighteenth century, in which Reason was advocated as the primary source and basis of authority.

      The intellectual and philosophical developments of that age (and their impact in moral and social reform) aspirted towards governmental consolidation, centralisation and primacy of the nation-state, and greater rights for common people.

      I dunno... but this sounds like socialism and planning to me. I think the GP meant to advocate a 'free market' capitalist solution but this isn't looking so hot these days.

      --
      I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
    6. Re:Here is a theory for ya by R2.0 · · Score: 1

      "How did that ignorant propaganda flamebait get modded insightful?"

      You are aware this is Slashdot, yes?

      --
      "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly." A. Carlson
    7. Re:Here is a theory for ya by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      Let us be honest here,and while I think dumping tons of ANYTHING into the air is never a good idea,the simple fact is that it HAS to be global warming. Why? Because if it isn't,that means it isn't our fault. If it isn't our fault,then it isn't under our control. And nothing scares the crap out of humans quicker than the thought that we are not "masters of our destiny".

      It is like the whole thing with giant asteroids. We know from impact craters that the Earth has been hit in the past with some serious "f*ck up your whole damned millennium" style asteroids. If they detected some Texas sized asteroid on a collision course with Earth,do you think they would actually admit it? Nope, because it would scare the sh*t out of folks with no good purpose. So they would quietly work on deflection scenarios until we found a way to deflect it or it was too late for the populace to do much damage from riots and looting and THEN tell us.

      Just as I'm sure the good men and women of the scientific community are looking at seafloor methane and every other possible cause but will keep saying "global warming" whether it turns out to be it or not, because it makes folks feel good to think they can save the planet by driving a hybrid.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    8. Re:Here is a theory for ya by mrraven · · Score: 2, Insightful

      jmorris

      "...replacing the values of the Enlightenment with Socialism and Planning."

      Hyperbole straw man much? How about replacing our inefficient and inequitable society with a mix of small local initiatives like small organic farms supported by CSAs, co-ops, and farmers, and more local sustainable power generation like windmills and solar with SOME public large infrastructure like more trains and more subsidized broadband that seems to be working so well in Europe and Japan. The small local farms seems MORE in line with "enlightenment" thinkers like Jefferson whose vision of America was agrarian, decentralized, and New England town meeting based. Meanwhile your pure Freidmanite capitalism has collapsed from an orgy of ISVs, and "naked short selling." Time to go back to the drawing board to create a more just sustainable efficient society that provides information services and a good education for all it's members.

      Enough (neo)conservative centralist globalist crony capitalist epic fail already!

      --
      Tired of all the isms, don't exploit people as an employer, or a government, mmmmK?
    9. Re:Here is a theory for ya by g8oz · · Score: 1

      The tiresome wingnuts on the right. Always ready to attack any science that might lead to any sort of collective response by society.

      I hope you don't use the highway system either. That was the result of govt planning too you know.

    10. Re:Here is a theory for ya by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Cripes. You think the scientists studying these plumes just might have noticed nearby volcanos when constructing hypotheses? But no, this is Slashdot, where uninformed political ranting is just as insightful as actual scientific analysis. I don't know exactly where the volcanoes are myself, but a little Googling indicates they're in the deep ocean on the Gakkel Ridge, whereas these methane plumes are in shallow permafrost.

    11. Re:Here is a theory for ya by Omestes · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Oh know, its the red threat all over again! Where is Patrick Swayze when we need him?! How is life in false dichotomy land? I hear you guys are trying to build a strawman that will someday reach the moon!

      Seriously though, I don't think anyone advocated the end of WESTERN CIVILIZATION, nor even would recommend such. Sure, maybe your particular view of western civilization is threatened, but I doubt that most of us in the West share your values (I'm guessing extreme libertarian/freemarketeer). Yes, perhaps the "me first, screw everything else" ethos will be threatened, I have a hard time crying over this.

      When someone attacks (or you perceive it, in this case) your ideology, and your reaction is paroxysms of rage, you probably have too much personally at state with a mere academic ideology.

      Also, the enlightenment was much bigger than Adam Smith, and capitalism (in some form) much older than the enlightenment. Also, socialism and capitolism are NOT mutually exclusive (a lot of countries believe that we have the moral obligation of trying to lift people up). Nor is planning, EVER a bad thing. Its called foresight, its much better than cleaning up after your boneheaded mistakes all the time.

      So now to the issue at hand, with your FUD out of the way, Canada != Siberia. They actually are pretty far apart. I doubt a Canadian undersea eruption is enough to cause extensive sea floor heating in Siberia. But then again, I didn't RTFA, so I'm not sure if there is actually a temperature differential involved around the hydrates, or if there is some other process going on. To be clear, I have no idea.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    12. Re:Here is a theory for ya by unlametheweak · · Score: 1

      I doubt if there is a conspiracy of scientists, especially considering researchers find it much easier to get money from big businesses like Exxon.

      I see more FUD and ignorance coming from the anti-global warming people than from anyone else. Notice how I lost my Karma bonus because I made fun of the op's rant. I'd like to think he was kidding, but it is a meme that the right-wing will demonize everything that they do not agree with to "socialism".

    13. Re:Here is a theory for ya by unlametheweak · · Score: 1

      Correction. I said:

      I see more FUD and ignorance coming from the anti-global warming people than from anyone else.

      "anti-global warming people" should be read as people who through FUD at any evidence of global warming.

    14. Re:Here is a theory for ya by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      > You do know that the depths of the ocean tend to be very cold, right?

      Normally..... unless there is volcanic activity in the region like is currently going on around the north pole.

      TFA specified that the research cruise was in the Eastern Siberian and Laptev Seas. Check your atlas.
      The (rather limited) volcanism on the Gaskell (trans-Arctic) mid-ocean ridge is quite a distance away. Plus, it's one of the slowest-spreading ridge in the world, with spreading rate and vigour of volcanicity being strongly correlated.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    15. Re:Here is a theory for ya by mrraven · · Score: 1

      Whops that should have been "farmers markets" and not just farmers. I wish slashdot had an edit function, isn't it time in 2008?

      --
      Tired of all the isms, don't exploit people as an employer, or a government, mmmmK?
    16. Re:Here is a theory for ya by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, perhaps the "me first, screw everything else" ethos will be threatened, I have a hard time crying over this. "everyone else" doesn't work as hard as I do. I want to help others, but I don't want to prop up those who lack the drive to do something on their own.

    17. Re:Here is a theory for ya by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      Cripes. You think the scientists studying these plumes just might have noticed nearby volcanos when constructing hypotheses?

      Except the volcanoes are not near Russia. If volcanoes were the cause then why aren't methane vents near the volcanoes?

      Falcon

    18. Re:Here is a theory for ya by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      That was my point!

    19. Re:Here is a theory for ya by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      That was my point!

      My mistake then.

      Falcon

  25. People have been expecting these Methane clouds by G3ckoG33k · · Score: 5, Informative

    People have been expecting these Methane clouds:
    http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j3U0vEk53bVXHIcGUqqO64rvDAUg

    "Melting of methane ice unleashed runaway global warming some 635 million years ago, according to a study released Wednesday that has implications for today's climate-change crisis.

    Release of the potent greenhouse-gas, at first in small amounts and then in massive volumes, brought a sudden end to the planet's longest Ice Age, its authors believe.

    During the "Snowball Earth" era, Earth froze over completely, with glaciers that crept down into the tropics and possibly even reached the equator."

    The Hives: Hate to Say I told You So:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsm2hSKkH7E

    1. Re:People have been expecting these Methane clouds by QuantumG · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Of course, by "sudden" they mean "a mere million years".

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
    2. Re:People have been expecting these Methane clouds by Randall311 · · Score: 1

      Uh, if it was "runaway" global warming some 635 million years ago, then how come the Earth doesn't currently resemble the surface of Venus? Oh right the Ice Age that balanced out the "runaway" global warming.

    3. Re:People have been expecting these Methane clouds by calmofthestorm · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Because natural global warming comes slowly and is periodic, unlike the unprecedented exponential increase we've seen lately.

      I think if more people understood what a first derivative was all this climate change denial bullshit would be far easier to expose as interest group lies.

      Well, time to replace democracy and freedom with socialism and planned economies, and murder all the Christians, which, according to the deniers, is all we scientists do

      --
      93rd rule of Slashdot: No matter how obvious my sarcasm is, my comment will be taken seriously by someone.
    4. Re:People have been expecting these Methane clouds by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Because natural global warming comes slowly and is periodic, unlike the unprecedented exponential increase we've seen lately.

      Periodic phenomena are exponential functions. There is no distinguishing between the two if you don't know amplitude, period and/or phase of the phenomenon. Additionally, even if we assume perfect periodicity, it should probably be fit onto a function based on an I/D derivation of our Suns' heating potential, and not on a straight line. Basically, we don't know whether our current situation is unprecedented.

      I think if more people understood what a first derivative was all this climate change denial bullshit would be far easier to expose as interest group lies.

      Why do you presume a first-order derivative is a good approximation of any periodic function? Over infinity, a first-order derivative of a periodic function is either a constant or a shifted/scaled variant of sgn(x). I'm reading nothing but FUD in your post...

      Well, time to replace democracy and freedom with socialism and planned economies, and murder all the Christians, which, according to the deniers, is all we scientists do

      ... and that's not helping.

    5. Re:People have been expecting these Methane clouds by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I would argue that we wouldn't see such a dramatic shit as the one that melted the "Snowball Earth". The deposits can't be as rich as they were during that period so I would imagine more methane is already present in the atmosphere.

    6. Re:People have been expecting these Methane clouds by plasmacutter · · Score: 1

      You do realize they also credit massive volcanic rifts forming and breaking up rodinia for the melting of snowball earth.

      Rodinia apparently fubar'd the oceanic currents moving between the tropics and the poles, causing snoball earth.

      Eventually though, the area the continent covered resulted in heat buildup from the mantle below, culminating in massive volcanic fissures which broke the continent apart in massive eruptions which belched molten rock and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

      --
      VLC FOR MAC IS DYING! IF YOU DEVELOP, PLEASE SAVE IT!!
  26. Ob. Russia by DavidD_CA · · Score: 5, Funny

    In Soviet Russia... the outdoors farts on you.

    --
    -David
  27. Don't worry about global warming by jimdread · · Score: 5, Interesting

    humanity dies from a giant fart. I seriously didn't see it coming.

    Actually humanity dies from lighting the fart. Consider what Professor Gregory Ryskin wrote:

    "The consequences of a methane-driven oceanic eruption for marine and terrestrial life are likely to be catastrophic. Figuratively speaking, the erupting region "boils over," ejecting a large amount of methane and other gases (e.g., CO2, H2S) into the atmosphere, and flooding large areas of land. Whereas pure methane is lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier, and thus spreads over the land, mixing with air in the process (and losing water as rain). The air-methane mixture is explosive at methane concentrations between 5% and 15%; as such mixtures form in different locations near the ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions and conflagrations destroy most of the terrestrial life, and also produce great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide. Firestorms carry smoke and dust into the upper atmosphere, where they may remain for several years; the resulting darkness and global cooling may provide an additional kill mechanism. Conversely, carbon dioxide and the remaining methane create the greenhouse effect, which may lead to global warming. The outcome of the competition between the cooling and the warming tendencies is difficult to predict."

    You can see there's no real need to worry about global warming. If the "explosions and conflagrations" don't get you, the smoke and dust might cause global cooling. Or global warming, it could go either way. But the methane explosions are predicted to be the biggest killer.

    1. Re:Don't worry about global warming by ColdWetDog · · Score: 5, Funny

      Well, that certainly puts the Wall Street meltdown in some sort of perspective.

      I feel so much better about my 401K.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    2. Re:Don't worry about global warming by IamTheRealMike · · Score: 3, Interesting

      How much methane would need to be released to create mixtures of between 5 and 15%? That's a hell of a lot of methane. Would the air even still be easily breathable at those concentrations?

    3. Re:Don't worry about global warming by jimdread · · Score: 4, Insightful

      How much methane would need to be released to create mixtures of between 5 and 15%? That's a hell of a lot of methane. Would the air even still be easily breathable at those concentrations?

      Ryskin is talking about methane being loaded with water droplets, since it came from the ocean. He says that the water makes humid methane heavier than air. That makes the methane pool up on the surface of the land. Since it's pools of humid methane, it could easily get into the range 5-15% if there is enough methane coming out of the ocean.

      You would be able to breathe that air pretty easily. Methane doesn't smell, and is non-toxic. You would probably be able to smell other gases coming out of the ocean, like hydrogen sulphide. It would only kill you by suffocation in an area where the methane displaced most of the oxygen, so there wasn't enough oxygen to breathe. And if there's enough oxygen for you to breathe, there's enough to explode with the methane, if there's a spark or fire.

      So, how much methane is in the ocean?

    4. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Would this be a good time to build one of those self contained underground domed cities that can function fairly independently of outside conditions?

    5. Re:Don't worry about global warming by jlehtira · · Score: 1

      Seriously though, the "normal" atmospheric concentration of methane is about 0.000001745%. 100x that brings us up to 0.001745%, which isn't very close to 5 - 15%. I do agree that everything should be done to slow down the climate change - it's bad enough even without "explosions and conflagrations".

    6. Re:Don't worry about global warming by aliquis · · Score: 1

      At least you'll get plenty of carbohydrogens to burn :)

    7. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      How much methane would need to be released to create mixtures of between 5 and 15%?

      That probably depends on how much air you're mixing with it.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    8. Re:Don't worry about global warming by BJH · · Score: 1

      I think he's talking about localised concentration rather than averaged across the entire atmosphere.

    9. Re:Don't worry about global warming by multipolar · · Score: 1

      Whereas pure methane is lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier, and thus spreads over the land, mixing with air in the process (and losing water as rain).

      What the hell does this mean? 'Methane loaded with water droplets is heavier than air.' What?! A cloud is 'air loaded with water droplets'; for some reason this 'loaded air' still seems to float mostly quite high up. The presence of water droplets in the gas mixture might change the way that an air (or methane) parcel moves in the atmosphere (because the latent heat of the water changes the thermodynamical situation), but it has nothing to do with the weight of the droplets. If the droplets are heavy and the methane is light, the drops go down and the gas goes up. Water droplets will never, ever, 'drag' some gas with them because of their weight.

    10. Re:Don't worry about global warming by fugue · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The fact that most Americans think this is funny is the problem. "If you do anything about global warming, you'll hurt my portfolio." Large-scale natural disasters in which whole ecosystems are destroyed are irrelevant, compared with a little make-believe system of measuring personal success vs. your neighbour. To quote someone famous, "Republicans are terrified of dying poor."

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    11. Re:Don't worry about global warming by dbrutus · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Actually, that 'make-believe system' is intended and generally functions quite well if left alone (*CRA* cough) at allocating resources on a more efficient basis than every other system we've ever tried. Inefficient allocation of resources means increased poverty, and at the margin, increased death from same. For us middle-class first worlders a tick up or down isn't a big deal but getting out of grinding subsistence agriculture and moving up the ladder to a merely crappy factory job means the difference between losing one sibling or three in the 3rd world.

    12. Re:Don't worry about global warming by fugue · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You are right in principle. However, the financial system is make-believe because it ignores the real cost of items. The cost of a tree is not just the cost of harvesting the tree, it is also the cost of not having the tree anymore--increased CO_2 in the air ((a) not sequestered by the tree and (b) produced by fossil-fuel--burning logging equipment), loss of topsoil due to erosion, loss of intangibles that are hard to put financial value on, like beauty... Gasoline ought to cost the full clean-up cost of the air that is destroyed (not just the oxygen consumed, but the cost of getting all the toxins, carcinogens, and whatnot out of the ground and air), etc. So yes, capitalism would be great--IF it accurately accounted for the real costs of things.

      But these costs have only become apparent recently. When capitalism was invented a few thousand years ago, the cost of not having a tree anymore was irrelevant because there were so many trees (well, sort of--even back then they ran into numerous problems, but the problems were quite local). Now that there are 7e9 people in the world, everything is done on such a massive scale that even small per-capita incremental costs add up to, frankly, global ecological disaster. And our financial systems haven't caught up. Whether we can make them do so in time is up in the air. Pun intended.

      So yes, capitalism is wonderful in theory, but as implemented, is make-believe.

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    13. Re:Don't worry about global warming by dbrutus · · Score: 2, Insightful

      People have been bleating about market externalities for at least 150 years but when the rubber hits the road, all the alternatives are even worse at dealing with externalities. Compare pollution in the Soviet block with the West and the Sovs were clearly much dirtier.

      It isn't that capitalism is perfect. It's not, which is why I'm open to alternatives. The problem is that people want to tear down capitalism and not discuss much that the alternatives they are pushing are even worse. That's just a no-go and dishonest to boot.

      So what's your alternative?

    14. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Qzukk · · Score: 1

      this 'loaded air' still seems to float mostly quite high up.

      Fog, meet multipolar. Multipolar, fog.

      --
      If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
    15. Re:Don't worry about global warming by theshowmecanuck · · Score: 1

      First you get on their case because you say they breed a culture of fear, then they laugh at something, now you want them to be fearful. Make up your mind.

      --
      -- I ignore anonymous replies to my comments and postings.
    16. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The fact that most non-Americans think this is a problem is funny.

      "The sky is falling! The sky is falling!"

    17. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      It would not be difficult, Mein Fuhrer.

    18. Re:Don't worry about global warming by kiatoa · · Score: 1

      So what's your alternative?

      The alternative is simple, effective, proven and it has been known for a long time. It also has the consequence of curbing the wealth of those who gain it by means of controlling resources (as opposed to those who attain wealth by means of producing goods or services), a fact that the current power elite are well aware of.

      Oh, the idea isn't perfect and there are some minor possible unintended consequences, which IMHO can be addressed with very minimal regulation.

      Google Henry George for background on this old but good idea. The wikipedia article is a fairly good starting point.

      --
      90% of the wealth is in 2% of the pockets. Bummer to be in the majority.
    19. Re:Don't worry about global warming by operagost · · Score: 1

      You can see there's no real need to worry about global warming. If the "explosions and conflagrations" don't get you, the smoke and dust might cause global cooling. Or global warming, it could go either way.

      Which is like a meteorologist giving a 50% chance of rain. He looks competent either way.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    20. Re:Don't worry about global warming by fugue · · Score: 4, Informative

      That you use the word "bleating" does not make them wrong. The Tragedy of the Commons is very real, and current economic systems are built around abuse of critical global commons--the atmosphere, topsoil, the sea, surface water, ... Any system that does not protect global commons will, quite literally, lead to the destruction of the world. You're seeing it now. Global warming is merely the fashionable cause du jour; very real, but there are others just as deadly.

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    21. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Locklin · · Score: 1

      401K?? Yeah... I'd say that's abnormally warm.

      --
      "Knowledge is the only instrument of production that is not subject to diminishing returns" -Journal of Political Econom
    22. Re:Don't worry about global warming by fugue · · Score: 1

      *laugh* Yes, well. It's healthy to be afraid of things that are likely to hurt you, especially if you might then do something about it. It is not healthy to fear things irrationally, or to fear things when the cure is worse than the disease, or to fear imaginary threats that, by definition, you can't do anything about.

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    23. Re:Don't worry about global warming by sdguero · · Score: 1

      The fact that most Americans think this is funny is the problem.

      Don't get your panties in a bunch. I'd rather die with a smile on my face...

    24. Re:Don't worry about global warming by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      Henry George was a capitalist in general. In the Wikipedia article on Georgism, for instance, there is a predecessor list of authors espousing similar ideals. Adam Smith is on the list.

      I've no problems with experimenting with various forms of capitalism.

    25. Re:Don't worry about global warming by dbrutus · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yet every time we stray out of the capitalist camp (broadly defined) we later on figure out that the gains are illusory, usually a matter of robbing Peter (quietly) to pay Paul (loudly). Privatizing the global commons is possible and has been done in pieces. Why are S African elephant herds booming (they are privatized) while surrounding countries have major poaching problems?

      I concede that until one figures out a decent privatization scheme, some regulation is better than an unregulated commons but that's about it.

    26. Re:Don't worry about global warming by T.E.D. · · Score: 1

      It would only kill you by suffocation

      ...or if you are a smoker.

    27. Re:Don't worry about global warming by kiatoa · · Score: 1

      Yes, I realized after posting that I should have said "not an alternative, but a way to augment or fix capitalism ..."

      --
      90% of the wealth is in 2% of the pockets. Bummer to be in the majority.
    28. Re:Don't worry about global warming by fugue · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It is very difficult to justify private ownership of something that is not produced by someone. Who should own the air? It must be owned by one entity, since there is only one atmosphere--national boundaries are irrelevant. And that means a monopoly. Whom should I pay for the privilege of breathing? What shall I do when they increase prices? What if they don't offer a product that I want? If Microsoft Air is too dirty, I can't just switch to Apple Air.

      Government exists for exactly this purpose--to make sure that bullies can't destroy things at the expense of everyone else. Things like the air need to be managed by global nonprofits with the power to enforce rules (ie. armies), and I can't see anyone but a government doing this.

      Or if I set up a global atmospheric regulation committee, what will you do? Pay me?

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    29. Re:Don't worry about global warming by roc97007 · · Score: 1

      > [...] as such mixtures form in different locations near the ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions and conflagrations destroy most of the terrestrial life, and also produce great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide.

      Wow, that'd be cool to watch. From a distance.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    30. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That joke is funny even on Main Street.

    31. Re:Don't worry about global warming by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      The fact that most Americans think this is funny is the problem. "If you do anything about global warming, you'll hurt my portfolio."

      No, you miss the point entirely. Although I'm sure there are a number of completely irrational people out there who do meet your description, the vast, overwhelming majority of Americans (or Republicans, if you prefer to further subdivide) do not.

      That rational group merely says this: I don't want my portfolio destroyed unless it absolutely must be destroyed to stop some life-threatening catastrophe. I worked hard for my savings and I want to enjoy it. It follows that if something horrible might happen that could prevent me from enjoying it (i.e. global catastrophe) then I'd be predisposed to address it regardless of the cost.

      I would spend every dime I had (and then work hard to earn more dimes) to defeat climate change if it were a provable fact. Instead, we have several camps, each trying to outshout the other. We have one camp saying it's getting warmer and humanity is to blame. We have another camp saying it's getting warmer but it's not man-made. We have another camp saying it's not getting warmer at all, that we're headed for another Little Ice Age in the coming decades. There are plenty of shades in between, but the point is that there are respected, reputable scientists on practically all sides of this issue. Each points to his or her data and says "See! What I'm saying is true, and everyone else is lying!" This does not engender confidence. You may claim that your pet theory is the One True Way. I say that if you've got unequivocal, unassailable, undeniable, verifiable data proving something, you ought to speak up because nobody else on the planet does. I'll point out that even the most esteemed minds on the planet -- far better equipped than you or I to analyze such things -- have been unable to put this issue to bed, so I don't have much hope that you'll change that.

      There are some that say "we can't wait for proof, we should do something now and worry about proof later." There are multiple problems with this idea. First, and most alarming, is what if we are headed for another Little Ice Age? If so, all this "carbon footprint" nonsense would be turned on its head. We'd need to produce more carbon to head off global cooling. Wouldn't you feel like a complete fool if all of humanity cut back on carbon emissions and exacerbated a cooling trend? Billions could die if this were to come true.

      Second, what if warming isn't man-made? What if the planet is getting warmer due to solar activity, or planetary magnetic fields flipping, or any of the other non-anthropocentric theories? You could argue reducing CO2 might make this less impactful, but what if nothing we do has any meaningful effect? Ruining a global economy (or even a national one) might be worth it if there was a positive climactic change, but it's certainly not worth it if there is no measurable effect.

      I'm not terrified of dying poor. I'm terrified of living poor for no good reason. Again, I put it to you that if you've got proof that some drastic climactic change is headed this way, and the only way to avoid it is to wreck an economy, I'm all for it. Until then, I'm not going to wreck anything that I've worked hard for when there's no benefit to doing so.

      Carl Sagan famously said "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." You're claiming something extraordinary is on the way and that I should take extraordinary measures to offset it. I'm asking for extraordinary proof. Submit it. While you're at it, submit a counter-argument to those who disagree with you, one that contains a point-by-point proof of where their models fail. Submit it for rigorous peer review. When you've got it to the point where no reputable, knowledgeable climatologist will disagree with it, I'm on board. Such consensus is not impossible. You just need to have unassailable evidence. The lack of just that is what keeps people like me on the fence, not greed or avarice.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    32. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      I don't want my portfolio destroyed unless it absolutely must be destroyed to stop some life-threatening catastrophe.

      Mitigating climate change doesn't require you to be personally bankrupted or for the global economy to be ruined. You might want to start by reading Bill Nordhaus's new book on climate economics. You can also read the summary of the IPCC AR4 WG3 report.

      There are plenty of shades in between, but the point is that there are respected, reputable scientists on practically all sides of this issue.

      That's not really true, it's an example of the success of the denialist publicity machine. There are legitimate points of debate, perhaps the most important of which is how strong are the climate feedbacks. The IPCC gives a climate sensitivity range between 1.5 and 4.5 C for a doubling of CO2, with a higher probability of being on the high side than the low side. This is supported by a rather large body of research both theoretically and observationally. The argument is over whether it's closer to the high or low side, and there is legitimate debate there, and it makes a big difference to policy. Likewise, there is legitimate debate over whether, say, hurricanes are being affected by global warming.

      On the other hand, there is nobody respected and reputable who is seriously claiming that we are going to enter a new Little Ice Age. There's nobody serious who's saying that global warming hasn't happened. There are a few people who are hanging on to "the Sun did it", but solar trends are rather inconsistent with what has happened since the latter half of the 20th century, and it's just not really credible anymore.

      While you're at it, submit a counter-argument to those who disagree with you, one that contains a point-by-point proof of where their models fail.

      That's what the peer reviewed literature is for. It's already out there. People have been working on the relative attribution of natural and anthropogenic climate changes for decades now. Go into the IPCC AR4 WG1 report for a massive collection of references to studies.

    33. Re:Don't worry about global warming by DavidHumus · · Score: 1

      If you think about it, this is a very narrow range which is why many gas explosions leave most people alive: the parts of the cloud not in the explosive range burn rather than explode.

    34. Re:Don't worry about global warming by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      Mitigating climate change doesn't require you to be personally bankrupted or for the global economy to be ruined.

      Then why do I keep getting asked to completely change my lifestyle and to spend vast sums of money to buy more expensive "carbon neutral" products? Everything you suggest has a cost involved that is in excess of the current economic model. The only demonstrable return for these higher prices is the nebulous claim that it will somehow prevent unwanted climactic change. It won't bankrupt me, but it would cost me more and give me nothing new in return unless it averts climate catastrophe. Since the catastrophe has not been proven to exist, I see no value it this entire concept.

      That's not really true, it's an example of the success of the denialist publicity machine.

      I find it amazingly funny that you attribute any dissent to the "denialist publicity machine" and then turn right around and cite (of all things) the IPCC report. This report has been called into question not just by crackpots but by reputable climatologists from many countries and backgrounds. Although I'm loathe to quote Wikipedia as a source of information, the page on the IPCC has a wonderful synopsis of IPCC criticisms. Suffice to say, the IPCC had significant political meddling involved. The results are circumspect precisely because of that.

      On the other hand, there is nobody respected and reputable who is seriously claiming that we are going to enter a new Little Ice Age.

      I'll quote Terrence Joyce, Senior Scientist, Physical Oceanography and
      Lloyd Keigwin, Senior Scientist, Geology & Geophysics:

      When most of us think about Ice Ages, we imagine a slow transition into a colder climate on long time scales. Indeed, studies of the past million years indicate a repeatable cycle of Earthâ(TM)s climate going from warm periods (âoeinterglacialâ, as we are experiencing now) to glacial conditions.

      The period of these shifts are related to changes in the tilt of Earthâ(TM)s rotational axis (41,000 years), changes in the orientation of Earthâ(TM)s elliptical orbit around the sun, called the âoeprecession of the equinoxesâ (23,000 years), and to changes in the shape (more round or less round) of the elliptical orbit (100,000 years). The theory that orbital shifts caused the waxing and waning of ice ages was first pointed out by James Croll in the 19th Century and developed more fully by Milutin Milankovitch in 1938.

      These is just the first one I could come up with and I didn't even look hard. So I guess WHOI is considered unreputable and unrespected by you, huh?

      That's what the peer reviewed literature is for. It's already out there. People have been working on the relative attribution of natural and anthropogenic climate changes for decades now. Go into the IPCC AR4 WG1 report for a massive collection of references to studies.

      And I'll again point out to you the assumptions and data involved in the IPCC report have been called into serious question by noted climatologists. The IPCC has declined to even address their concerns. The IPCC also completely ignores the fact that their own models used to predict this coming catastrophe cannot account for past weather trends, nor can it account for the current cooling trend we are now experiencing. An objective scientist would conclude that we know too little about the climate -- that there are too many variables and even unknown variables -- for us to accurately predict the doom you say is a foregone conclusion. Yet you insist your predictions are the utter truth in spite of your inability to prove it. Instead, you merely denounce detractors as part of some conspiracy.

      I'll again demand what should be easy to

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    35. Re:Don't worry about global warming by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      Wouldn't you feel like a complete fool if all of humanity cut back on carbon emissions and exacerbated a cooling trend? Billions could die if this were to come true.

      That can be turned on it's head too. If Global Warming is true then many can die or become ill, forget about flooding of lowlands. With a warmer world for instance malaria carrying mosquitoes can go to higher altitudes as well as latitudes. Ebola is probably the same. With higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere poison ivy grows faster as well. Unfortunately I haven't found a reference but I once read about a science study that concluded melting ice in a caldera could form a lake increases the chances of an eruption. I'm sure many other things like these can happen as well.

      Second, what if warming isn't man-made? What if the planet is getting warmer due to solar activity, or planetary magnetic fields flipping, or any of the other non-anthropocentric theories?

      I can't answer about the others here but "Sun's Power Hits New Low". Unfortunately this can make Global Warming pale in comparison. Like in the movie "The Core" the earth could bake though from cosmic rays instead of solar winds.

      Ruining a global economy (or even a national one) might be worth it if there was a positive climactic change, but it's certainly not worth it if there is no measurable effect.

      Why do people automatically assume doing something about Global Warming will hurt the global economy? Doing something about Global Warming can actually help the economy. Renewable energy can create a lot of well paying jobs. People will be employed in R&D, manufacturing, installation and maintenance of alternative energy sources. While I don't really like some of what Obama wants I do like his push on green collar jobs. And what of the trillions insurance companies can lose as well? How many billions will New Orleans cost? What about Texas? What about a volcanic eruption?

      You're claiming something extraordinary is on the way and that I should take extraordinary measures to offset it. I'm asking for extraordinary proof.

      And methane farts, er burbs, aren't enough, on top of a melting North Pole and Greenland's glaciers?

      While you're at it, submit a counter-argument to those who disagree with you, one that contains a point-by-point proof of where their models fail. Submit it for rigorous peer review. When you've got it to the point where no reputable, knowledgeable climatologist will disagree with it, I'm on board.

      I bet even the day after you won't get 100% agreement, being afterwards, on the cause.

    36. Re:Don't worry about global warming by leereyno · · Score: 1

      It isn't that conservatives and republicans are not concerned about the environment. It's that we've been around the block enough times to recognize that most "environmentalists" are just watermelons: green on the outside, red on the inside.

      Caring about the environment shouldn't require that one embrace destructive policies derived from thinly veiled Marxist ideology.

      --
      Muslim community leaders warn of backlash from tomorrow morning's terrorist attack.
    37. Re:Don't worry about global warming by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      Actually, you don't have to have one entity own air. Negative effects straying across property lines are well developed in property law. The point is to make dirtying things up painful for trivial reasons but possible when the benefits are large enough.

      The PRC finds it profitable to pollute California's air. It's flat out illegal according to PRC law but there's no real enforcement. So how's that government accountability working for you?

    38. Re:Don't worry about global warming by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      That can be turned on it's head too. If Global Warming is true then many can die or become ill, forget about flooding of lowlands.

      Very true. Unfortunately, you've not provided any furtherance of evidence either for or against the item at hand. Regardless of whether we do something or we do nothing, we could have a global warming, a global cooling, or no change at all. Climatologists have said, however, that an ice age would be more damaging than warming due to shorter growing cycles. Warming, for all its predicted deleterious effects, would potentially thaw out land that is currently unproductive for food crops. I'm not saying it would be nice (far from it), but warming is preferable to cooling if you had to choose the lesser of two evils.

      I can't answer about the others

      Again, I appreciate your comments but you're not offering anything to further the evidence for or against.

      Why do people automatically assume doing something about Global Warming will hurt the global economy? Doing something about Global Warming can actually help the economy. Renewable energy can create a lot of well paying jobs.

      I can see your economic education has been dismally incomplete. So renewable energy can create a lot of "well paying" jobs, eh? And who do you suppose pays the salaries of these well-paying jobs? Ah! Energy customers, that's who! That would be you and me. We'll pay far more for energy, meaning we'll have far less for other things like milk, cars, PC's, and just about every other consumer product known to man.

      But wait, it gets better! All of those products will get more expensive as well since the companies producing them will have higher energy costs just like you and me. The end result is much higher prices for everything. This causes inflation and a slowing economy. If bad enough, it causes a recession. If really bad, it causes a Depression. Crumbling economies cause widespread poverty, disease, and human suffering.

      And what of the trillions insurance companies can lose as well? How many billions will New Orleans cost? What about Texas? What about a volcanic eruption?

      You're making the assumption that this climate change -- if it even exists -- is man-made, and that we also have the power to change it. Assuming that none of the above is true, we could cost ourselves trillions in higher energy costs and still pay trillions in insurance. Does that make any sense?

      And methane farts, er burbs, aren't enough, on top of a melting North Pole and Greenland's glaciers?

      No, it's not, because you're unable to prove this isn't some naturally-occurring event. Further, you're unable to prove that it's anything humanity can alter or deflect no matter what we do. If it is indeed natural, and if it is something we cannot avoid, I'd rather spend those billions (or trillions) on coping with the change rather than wasting them in fruitless attempts to either (a) alter the un-alterable or (b) alter that which isn't going to happen in the first place.

      I bet even the day after you won't get 100% agreement, being afterwards, on the cause.

      And I'm sure you're right. There are still people who believe the Earth is flat. Those people are a decided minority. Those who don't subscribe to the Church of Climate Change are neither irrational nor a minority. If we're so darned sure this whole "climate change" is coming, where is the hard evidence? For every "melting North Pole" and "Greenland glacier" there's another story about a record snowfall, or a record winter, or some other similar-but-opposite climate phenomena. If you choose to look only for that which confirms your belief, you will not see evidence to the contrary. I see evidence for and against. Both seems convincing. Both cannot be right. Until one is proven, I'm withholding my judgment.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    39. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why are S African elephant herds booming (they are privatized) while surrounding countries have major poaching problems?

      Is that really relevant? Do large elephant herds in South Africa prove that capitalism is necessarily the best system for running everything? What if poachers went and slaughtered all of South Africa's elephants? Would that prove that capitalism is a failure in every field?

    40. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 2, Informative

      Then why do I keep getting asked to completely change my lifestyle and to spend vast sums of money to buy more expensive "carbon neutral" products?

      Oh yeah? Who is asking you to spend "vast sums of money", and exactly how vast are we talking here? That's quite at odds with the fairly modest carbon taxes recommended by mainstream economists or the IPCC, on the order of $30/ton C.

      As for changing your lifestyle, we're talking simple energy efficiency measures, not living in a mud hut eating bark and leaves.

      This report has been called into question not just by crackpots but by reputable climatologists from many countries and backgrounds.

      Fine, name one main IPCC conclusion which is is significantly at odds with the majority of the scientific literature.

      On the "overstating" side, the Wikipedia article you cite doesn't have anything even remotely specific, just generic accusations of "distortion". On the "overstating" side, there are positive feedbacks which the IPCC neglected, but it stated it was intentionally doing so because it couldn't yet quantify those risks.

      These is just the first one I could come up with and I didn't even look hard.

      Collapse of the meridional overturning circulation is probably the aspect of climate with which I'm most familiar, actually. It's rather fanciful to describe it as a "Little Ice Age", since it's mostly limited to the North Atlantic region, and continental European temperatures are predicted to increase overall under the large amounts of warming necessary to trigger another collapse (see, e.g., the 2005 GRL paper by Gregory et al.). (That is, there is cooling due to the collapse, but it's offset by global warming itself.) The real temperature drops occur over the ocean, not land, although there could be some cooling over Greenland and Scandanavia. And the real risks associated with a modern MOC collapse are not an "ice age", but a shift in the zonal precipitation bands changing how much rainfall countries get. The secondary risk is due to different countries warming at different rates, making an overall adaptation strategy difficult. This is discussed in the National Academies report that your link cites.

      And I'll again point out to you the assumptions and data involved in the IPCC report have been called into serious question by noted climatologists.

      Please, point out the "noted climatologists" who question the basic premises of AGW.

      The IPCC also completely ignores the fact that their own models used to predict this coming catastrophe cannot account for past weather trends,

      Climate models do not and cannot predict weather. They do account for past climate trends, most notably the 20th century global warming.

      nor can it account for the current cooling trend we are now experiencing.

      We are not experiencing a cooling trend under any meaningful definition of the word "trend". (Averaging over a few years does not constitute a trend.) At best you can say that temperatures have been fairly flat for about a decade. However, given the size of the interannual variability in temperature, you can't statistically say whether that's an actual trend or just weather noise. Depending on the size of the trend, it usually takes at least 20 years for a signal to definitively emerge from noise, which is why climatologists took several decades before they definitively stated that the warming we've seen is real.

      An objective scientist would conclude that we know too little about the climate

      An objective scientist would know something about statistics and conclude that a few years of data does not magically overturn a century's worth of study of the climate. For instance, there was an analogous period in the 1940s where climate was warmer than models hindcast, but nobody says that mea

    41. Re:Don't worry about global warming by jimdread · · Score: 1

      Ryskin wrote about methane erupting from the ocean like a volcano. Probably there would be very high concentrations of methane in the atmosphere just above the middle of the ocean. At the edges of the ocean, methane would pour out across the land. Somewhere at the front of the methane fog cloud on the land, the methane/air mixture would get to about 5-15%, and be the right conditions for exploding. If the methane levels get over 15%, it won't explode, it'll just burn.

      CH4 + 2 O2 => CO2 + 2 H2O. You need twice as much oxygen as methane to get a clean burn. Since the atmosphere is normally about 20% oxygen, anything over 10% methane burning or exploding, is going to cause a localised shortage of oxygen. The methane cloud rolls in, explodes or burns, and suddenly, all the oxygen is gone from that area. Yow. It'll be like the ocean is tossing fuel-air bombs at the land.

      And in case you think you can "save the planet" by not burning any more coal, read this carefully: "Upon release of a significant portion of the dissolved methane, the ocean settles down, and the entire sequence of events (i.e., development of anoxia, accumulation of dissolved methane, the metastable state, eruption) begins anew. No external cause is required to bring about a methane-driven eruption--its mechanism is self-contained, and implies that eruptions are likely to occur repeatedly at the same location." Yes that's right, it just happens naturally.

      Really fascinating reading in Ryskin's paper. Here's another chunk: "Because methane is isotopically light, its fast release must result in a negative carbon isotope excursion in the geological record. Knowing the magnitude of the excursion, one can estimate the amount of methane that could have produced it. Such calculations (prompted by the methane-hydrate-dissociation model, but equally applicable here) have been performed for several global events in the geological record; the results range from 10^18 to 10^19 grams of released methane (e.g., Katz et al., 1999; Kennedy et al., 2001; de Wit et al., 2002). These are very large amounts: the total carbon content of today's terrestrial biomass is ~ 2 x 10^18 grams. Nevertheless, relatively small regions of the deep ocean could contain such amounts of dissolved methane; e.g., the Black Sea alone (volume ~ 0.4 x 10^-3 of the ocean total; maximum depth only 2.2 km) could hold, at saturation, ~ 0.5 x 10^18 grams. A similar region of the deep ocean could contain much more (the amount grows quadratically with depth). Released in a geological instant (weeks, perhaps), 10^18 to 10^19 grams of methane could destroy the terrestrial life almost entirely. Combustion and explosion of 0.75 x 10^19 grams of methane would liberate energy equivalent to 108 Mt of TNT, 10,000 times greater than the world's stockpile of nuclear weapons, implicated in the nuclear- winter scenario (Turco et al., 1991)."

      Many people are very worried about global warming and the effects of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, most people don't consider the ocean. The ocean contains much more carbon dioxide than the atmosphere. Many gases transfer very easily from the atmosphere to the ocean, or the other way. The ocean is huge compared to the atmosphere. What happens in the ocean will have a very great effect on human activity. But most people never think about the ocean. Won't somebody please think about the ocean?

      This scenario leads to the death of most terrestrial life. It might be time to build some of those giant underwater cities like Jar Jar Binks lives in.

    42. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why not just light it every now and then to keep it low? Granted, it would fuck up the climate for a good while, but it's better than burning to death.

    43. Re:Don't worry about global warming by alexborges · · Score: 1

      Shiit...

      This makes napalm look like a kiddie rubber slingshot.

      --
      NO SIG
    44. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      On the "overstating" side, there are positive feedbacks which the IPCC neglected

      That should be "understating".

    45. Re:Don't worry about global warming by alexborges · · Score: 1

      One might argue that pure capitalism does account for the extra costs, but that the value that we as a colective give to many of the intangible or costs-to-the-earth is sequestered by what we sadly call "public opinion" which is mainly paid for by private hands that pretty much live nice lives by fucking up the planet for the rest of us.

      All in all, we need to kick the asses of stupid senseless politicians to show them that its WE (the market) who gives value to things, not them and by decree.

      --
      NO SIG
    46. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Regardless of whether we do something or we do nothing, we could have a global warming, a global cooling, or no change at all.

      Sadly for your argument, the three cases are not equally likely.

      I can see your economic education has been dismally incomplete.

      Have you ever read anything ever published on the subject, Dr. Climate Economics? Go look at publications by Nordhaus, Tol, Yohe, Weitzman, Peizer, etc. They don't advocate measures which induce "crumbling economies". The point of mitigation is to mitigate what we can afford and adapt to the rest, not mitigate what we can't afford. We're still not even mitigating what we can afford, so the point is moot.

      For every "melting North Pole" and "Greenland glacier" there's another story about a record snowfall, or a record winter, or some other similar-but-opposite climate phenomena.

      I hope you realize that climate trends sustained throughout most of a century are quite different from random weather events. Distrust anyone who says that a particular cold winter is definitely due to global cooling, or a record warm summer is due to global warming. At best, you can only say whether such events are more or less common than they were 30+ years ago (and even then, attribution of local weather events is still hard). Look at long-term trends instead.

    47. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      An objective scientist would know something about statistics and conclude that a few years of data does not magically overturn a century's worth of study of the climate. For instance, there was an analogous period in the 1940s where climate was warmer than models hindcast, but nobody says that means the next 70 years of climate bear no relation to our physical understanding.

      Please post here the measured atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures for that period in the 1940s that you mentioned. This is a pretty simple request, yes? Since we've had "a century's worth of study of the climate", there should be no problem in producing basic data like that, right? If we are expected to believe in global warming on an objective, scientific level, we need to see the data. "Show me the numbers", as Jerry Maguire might say.

      Pretty simple data request: what were the measurements for atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures in the 1940s? Can we see them please? If nobody can provide the data, I'm going to assume that this global warming stuff is all just alarmism, and not actually objective science at all.

    48. Re:Don't worry about global warming by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      How much methane would need to be released to create mixtures of between 5 and 15%?

      Normal atmospheric concentrations of methane are 1~2ppm v/v. I use this value as a reality check when I'm evaluating the knowledge of gas-analysis contractor staff on oil wells where I'm responsible for QA/QC of (amongst other things) gas analysis data. Loggers, if you get the answer wrong, I'm not going to correct you (until after you've submitted your final reports), but I am going to make note of it and judge your competence accordingly. You are expected to read around your subject, not just to parrot what your training courses tell you.

      That's a hell of a lot of methane. Would the air even still be easily breathable at those concentrations?

      Hmmm. Interesting question.
      For the SlashDot audience, 5% is a working approximation to the Lower Explosive Limit of methane in air ; above that figure, the mixture can sustain and amplify a detonation shock wave. (The exact figure varies with pressure, temperature, humidity, and enough other factors to only merit no decimal places.)
      I can't think of any reason why 5% in air, or even 15% in air would in itself be hazardous to health. At some point, the well-known mild hypnotic (sleep-inducing) effects of alkane gases would come into play, which is one set of hazards ; at a higher concentration you'll eventually start to make the exposed people hypoxic (insufficient oxygen ; I think you'd need to be up in the mid-20s of % methane-in-air for that to become significant) ; my un-checked IANA-medic memory tells me that alkanes cause mild cardiac hypertension before the hypoxia gets significant ; but at 5% and above, methane-in-air, you're one spark away from being several reddish, tattered, smouldering stains on the landscape. Which is not a nice place to be. When I see ambient gas levels hit 5% methane-equivalent, I'm taking action to reduce and control those gas levels because of the explosion risk, which is a very non-trivial hazard to health.
      From personal experience, I've walked several hundred metres through a gas plume at 5-7% methane in air (we only had one sample point, which peaked at 7% ; I left the analytic equipment running and went up the nearest sand dune, because I knew from past reports that the reservoir in question could put out whole percents of H2S.), one BA set on my back with the mask to hand, and my spare BA set in it's case in my hand. Plus a UV torch to spot the scorpions, it being night-time. No rapidly toxic effects (I ain't dead, yet), and when the "shimmer" of gas coming off the mud died down, I was able to return to my "gas shack" without problems.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    49. Re:Don't worry about global warming by fugue · · Score: 1

      Ambitwistor has done a very good job with this, so I'll just chime in to emphasise one thing: waiting for positive proof that global warming is a disaster that we could have done something about is rather stupid. We have no certain knowledge of the future, ever. We have to make the best decisions we can. given the information we have now. And that information says that there's a reasonable chance that we are in very deep trouble indeed. Nothing you can imagine can hold a candle to the chaos that runaway climate change will cause.

      For an elementary tutorial on risk management as applied to this particular threat, I highly recommend this YouTube video. Please let us know what you think!

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    50. Re:Don't worry about global warming by fugue · · Score: 1

      Caring about the environment doesn't have to be ideological. The science showing that environmental destruction is bad by just about any measure you can name has been out there for a long time. What colour environmentalists are is moot--if you poison your life support system, you die. This isn't about rooting for your home sports team--there are supporting facts, evidence, solid math behind plenty (admittedly not all) of the environmentalists' positions. The typical Republican position tends to be based on a lot of ignorance, wishful thinking, and greed.

      Modern Republican policy has contributed absolutely nothing to "the environment" for the last few decades. If you say that you care, but aren't willing to make any sacrifice at all, then you are a hypocrite. And if you honestly care, then you're in the wrong party. Of course, if you are a modern Republican, then you hate science, education, family planning, clean air and water, and a functioning ecosystem, and love torture, holding people without trial, unprovoked wars and occupations, giving most everything to for-profit corporations, and letting fundamentalist religious extremists run what's left of the country... to say nothing of the current topic. Or else you're not paying attention...

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    51. Re:Don't worry about global warming by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      Warming, for all its predicted deleterious effects, would potentially thaw out land that is currently unproductive for food crops.

      Warming would also take land out of agricultural production. Some land that's now used for growing crops will become deserts. Other areas will become flooded. Especially with saltwater. As it is now, Southern California is a major source of produce. However all those crops get their water from the Colorado River, which is drying up. As another /.er has posted a number of tymes, people in Colorado can't even use cisterns to capture and store rainwater without a license or permit as people downstream already have "rights" to that water. Farmers in a desert have more "rights" to rainwater than those who live where it rains?

      I can see your economic education has been dismally incomplete.

      And yours is compleat? The book "Natural Capitalism", called by Frances Cairncross, a writer for the Economist and others as breaming with ideas to bridge the gulf between business and the environment. Some have said it's the followup to Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations". In it a number of studies are cited whereby businesses have reduced their ecological footprint and saved money at the same tyme. Environmental responsibility can even be traced back to Adam Smith the father of capitalism.

      You're making the assumption that this climate change -- if it even exists

      Even skeptics of human induced global warming admit the world is warming. Heck even President Bush said it was real.

      I bet even the day after you won't get 100% agreement, being afterwards, on the cause.

      And I'm sure you're right. There are still people who believe the Earth is flat. Those people are a decided minority.

      Just as those who deny Global Warming is false is a decided minority. To me there's little difference, both discount or ignore facts. Yes, there are facts showing cooling in some places, but the world as a whole is warming.

      Falcon

    52. Re:Don't worry about global warming by gormanbud · · Score: 1

      Democrats are just plain terrified of dying since they are soooo important the world can't end without their input. We are all going to die, get over yourself. Sorry to see 10,000 years of so called civilization go up in smoke. Things will start over and in a few million years who is ever here will think they are unique and the first to be self aware. Best to start colonies in space to control our own future since this fickle planet can buck us off at any time.

    53. Re:Don't worry about global warming by sglines · · Score: 1

      That begs the question: was the Tunguska event a methane explosion rather than a meteorite?

      SG

    54. Re:Don't worry about global warming by fugue · · Score: 1

      *laugh* Yup, given that we're going up in smoke, the "fly on the wall" perspective is mighty useful. But since we're many many years from having the capability to colonise space (especially in the amount of 7 billion), counting on that seems, um, premature. Besides, people are self-aware, intelligent, and capable of great things. We feel pain, too, as do many other animals. Yes, probably even Republicans feel pain, although possibly only in the vicinity of their right ass cheek... but why not work to let us reach our full potential, rather than shooting ourselves and everyone else in the foot? C'mon, it'll be fun!

      The survival of the species is worth nothing. The survival of individuals is what matters. Our species is worth nothing for its own sake--it doesn't contribute anything positive to any ecosystem. But each person, taken separately, is worth something. Hell, this is sometimes even true of undergrads!

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    55. Re:Don't worry about global warming by ResidentSourcerer · · Score: 1

      Wait a minute. Something is off kilter here. First approximation the density of a gas is proportional to it's molecular weight. Methane = CH4 = 5. Water = H20=18
      Air = O2+N2 ~~ 30. I'm not sure what the saturation point of water vapor in methane is, but even at 100% water vapour the density is only just over half that of air. Pure methane has a density of 1/6 that of air.

      The density of air is around 1.2 Kg/cubic meter. So each cubic meter of the methane is going to have between 0.5 and 1.0 kg of lift.

      Hot air saturates with water vapour at around 40 g/cubic meter. As a warm wet air mass rises, it cools, and that cloud is not very successful at keeping the all the water in tiny droplets. We call this process "rain"

      We are asked to believe that methane can keep 10 to 20 times as much water as droplets in a fine enough dispersion without raining out for long enough to cover significant land masses?

      What is the mechanism for creating these droplets? In a cloud the vapour condenses to form droplets. I can see no plausible mechanism for cold methane (Rising methane plumes would carry water from the ocean floor -- 4 degrees C roughly -- to evaporate at least it's own mass in water while rising through the water column.

      Alternately what is the mechanism that produces sub fog sized water droplets is such profusion?

      I need more convincing.

      --
      Third Career: Tree Farmer Second Career: Computer Geek First Career: Teacher, Outdoor Instructor, Photographer.
    56. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Please post here the measured atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures for that period in the 1940s that you mentioned.

      Temperatures are here. For CO2, direct measurements didn't start until the late 1950s. You can see those here. Earlier than that, you have to look at ice cores (which also extend later than that, although nobody uses them for times when instrumental data is available). You can see those here.

      If nobody can provide the data, I'm going to assume that this global warming stuff is all just alarmism, and not actually objective science at all.

      That is a pretty silly statement. How paranoid do you have to be to believe that we don't even have data on global warming? It just shows how polarized the skeptics have become.

    57. Re:Don't worry about global warming by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      Sadly for your argument, the three cases are not equally likely.

      Sadly, for your argument you've provided no proof whatsoever to back up your claims.

      Have you ever read anything ever published on the subject, Dr. Climate Economics?

      Your sarcasm betrays your emotional involvement in what should be a rational argument. Yes, I have read quite a bit on the subject, but unlike you I've read arguments from both sides. Hence my skepticism. You appear to have sought out only that which reinforces your predefined belief, hence your ignorance and arrogance.

      I hope you realize that climate trends sustained throughout most of a century are quite different from random weather events.

      And I hope you realize that a model being used to predict weather trends -- your "climate change catastrophe" if you will -- ought to be reliable enough to predict past weather trends as well. But it doesn't. If you plug the data in for past decades, the outputs don't match with the weather we actually had. The model is either faulty, incomplete, or both, yet you wish to put it forth as the unquestioned -- and not-to-be-questioned -- gospel of truth. Any reasonable scientist must question such results and conclusions, yet curiously many do not. You've made it abundantly obvious which camp you're in.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    58. Re:Don't worry about global warming by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      Warming would also take land out of agricultural production.

      That was implied by my statement. It's rather obvious that warming would alter the farming landscape rather drastically. That said, my statement still stands: if you have to choose cooling or warming, warming is preferable. Neither would be pleasant, however.

      And yours is compleat?

      More complete than your spelling education, I see.

      Even skeptics of human induced global warming admit the world is warming. Heck even President Bush said it was real.

      It doesn't matter one whit to me what Bush -- or any other politician -- has said on the environment. Politicians speak mainly to gain political favor. Reality only occasionally intersects with what comes out of their mouths. Right now it's politically correct to mouth platitudes about the environment, so I would expect Bush, McCain, and Obama to spew such stuff on a regular basis. None of them, however, know a damned thing about the environment that their advisors -- both scientific and polticial -- haven't told them.

      You seem oblivious to the fact that there is debate on whether we're headed for a long-term warming or cooling trend. Yes, we have been warming for a little while, but will it continue? There is data saying we could be headed for a long-term cooling very similar to the Little Ice Age despite an intermittent warming. Wikipedia has this to say on the last LIA:

      It is generally agreed that there were three minima, beginning about 1650, about 1770, and 1850, each separated by slight warming intervals.[1]

      No SUV's and coal-fired power plants back then dumping CO2 into the air, so why the warming/cooling fluctuations? Our current climate models cannot explain it, but it sure wasn't anthropocentric. And note how these "minor" fluctuations took decades to play out before the final Big Chill.

      I'm not saying what we're going through now is identical. It could be we're on a road to sustained, anthropocentric warming. Then again, we might not. There is no hard data either way despite your protestations to the contrary. If you accept the fuzzy data saying we're on a long-term warming trend, then you must also accept the similarly-fuzzy data that says we're on a long-term cooling trend. Both have "facts" and data models backing them up. Both are obviously flawed models that could be off by a little, a lot, or not at all. You put too much faith in the warming models because you've decided that's what you want to believe. I, on the other hand, believe none of them. I demand more research and proof before we commit to a specific course of action.

      Just as those who deny Global Warming is false is a decided minority. To me there's little difference, both discount or ignore facts. Yes, there are facts showing cooling in some places, but the world as a whole is warming.

      And you aren't discounting or ignoring inconvenient facts as well? Quit being dishonest. There is evidence out there that contradicts your assumptions. Even the vaunted IPCC had to fiddle with their data to make it look like we're on a long-term warming trend. Is the world getting warmer? Yes, it has been for a little while, but for the last few years it's been cooling. The warming models don't say how or why this should happen. So will it continue to warm? Will it cool? Will it stabilize? Nobody knows, least of all you. Quit acting like you've got all the answers locked up tight in some unassailable data model. You don't. Nobody does. You, like everybody else, are guessing. The problem with your guessing is that you're unable to separate your personal desires and agenda from what should be a rational thought process, hence your dogmatic insistence that anyone questioning your conclusions must be an idiot.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    59. Re:Don't worry about global warming by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      And here's some other good quotes for you to chew on. You know, from those disreputable sources like MIT:

      # Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and member of the National Academy of Sciences: "We are quite confident (1) that global mean temperature is about 0.5 ÂC higher than it was a century ago; (2) that atmospheric levels of CO2 have risen over the past two centuries; and (3) that CO2 is a greenhouse gas whose increase is likely to warm the earth (one of many, the most important being water vapor and clouds). But â" and I cannot stress this enough â" we are not in a position to confidently attribute past climate change to CO2 or to forecast what the climate will be in the future."[54] "[T]here has been no question whatsoever that CO2 is an infrared absorber (i.e., a greenhouse gas â" albeit a minor one), and its increase should theoretically contribute to warming. Indeed, if all else were kept equal, the increase in CO2 should have led to somewhat more warming than has been observed."[55]

      Or how about this one from a guy who actually contributed to the IPCC report:

      # John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, contributor to several IPCC reports: "I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time."[49]

      Or how about this one from a minor, less-than-notable facility called Los Alamos National Labs:

      # Petr Chylek, Space and Remote Sensing Sciences researcher, Los Alamos National Laboratory: "carbon dioxide should not be considered as a dominant force behind the current warming...how much of the [temperature] increase can be ascribed to CO2, to changes in solar activity, or to the natural variability of climate is uncertain"[50]

      Yep, that about wraps it up! There are no notable, reputable, learned dissenting voices out there! It's just one big, happy, consensus-filled scientific community where all the heads are bobbing up and down at the same time!

      I could go on, you know, but I'm tiring of pointing out what should be blatantly obvious to anyone who cares to do some objective Googling or other research on the subject. You have confined your knowledge of the subject to nothing more than that which already agrees with you. That is not science. That is dogma.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    60. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Methane exists as a molecule: CH4. How can a molecule of CH4 be "loaded with water droplets"? -- A "droplet" is many many times bigger than a CH4 molecule.

    61. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Sadly, for your argument you've provided no proof whatsoever to back up your claims.

      No, you've simply dismissed thousands of papers as biased, simply because they were cited in the IPCC report.

      Yes, I have read quite a bit on the subject, but unlike you I've read arguments from both sides.

      Says you. Please cite some of this literature you've read, by climate economists. I gave you a long list of noted climate economists who find otherwise.

      And I hope you realize that a model being used to predict weather trends -- your "climate change catastrophe" if you will -- ought to be reliable enough to predict past weather trends as well. But it doesn't.

      Climate models do reproduce past climate trends in temperature, precipitation, sea ice extent, etc., at global to sub-continental scales. They don't have skill for local climate. They do not predict "weather".

    62. Re:Don't worry about global warming by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      Mitigation is insurance against risk in the face of uncertainty. There is uncertainty to the tune of several degrees in the climate projections, because our understanding of the climate isn't perfect. We take out insurance not because we're sure something bad is going to happen, but because we can't rule out something bad not happening.

      I'll present you with the following situation: you have just ingested a cup of colorless, odorless, tasteless fluid which you believed to be water. Suddenly, three complete strangers run into the room. The first carries a syringe and says "I am an expert in poisons! You just drank a deadly poison! Inject yourself right now with this syringe or the poison will kill you in a month!"

      The second stranger loudly interrupts, saying "No! I am an expert in poisons! That syringe contains the wrong antidote! If you take it, the antidote alone will kill or cripple you. But what *I* have in this syringe will save you if you inject yourself right now!"

      The third stranger looks at the first two and says "I am an expert in poisons! These guys are lunatics. Both of their syringes contain chemicals that will harm or kill you. What you drank in the cup was plain water, completely harmless. You can safely ignore both of them."

      Now, what do you do? You're presented with two opposing solutions, each claiming equal validity of curing the poison, and a third solution claiming there is no poison at all. Every choice you make is risky because there is no choice lacking a significant (perhaps even deadly) downside.

      An intelligent person might conclude that the smartest thing to do would be to find out which one of them is right before doing anything at all. There is enough time (assuming you're poisoned in the first place) to get multiple doctors to test you and rule if you're poisoned and, if so, which antidote would be best. If your life really is in jeopardy, getting complete consensus from multiple reputable doctors should not be difficult.

      Instead, you're suggesting that we do something in the hopes that (a) it's the right thing to do, (b) it's worth the cost, and (c) it isn't overlooking some crucial flaw that will cause even greater damage. You have not satisfied any of these criteria beyond a reasonable reproach. This is either because you can't or you won't. If you can't, you should consider your conclusion may be flawed. If you won't...well, don't feel to surprised if you don't get many converts to your "cause." What you don't understand is this: I am open to being convinced, but you lack credible evidence. Provide it and you'll have a convert, perhaps even a flock of them.

      The premise of insurance is that it guarantees to protect you from a potential threat. You can't guarantee the threat but, and most importantly, you can't guarantee the insurance will actually protect against the potential threat. Indeed, if you're really wrong, implementing the insurance could exacerbate the situation. More study is needed. Why can't you admit that?

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    63. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Yeah, those guys sound credible until you actually start reading the arguments in their papers. You're citing opinions, but the proof of the pudding is what kind of science they've got to support those opinions.

      Lindzen's contribution to the effect of CO2 on climate is his "infrared iris hypothesis". It wasn't a bad idea on the surface, but it was demolished about 7 years ago in the literature upon comparing its predictions to data, and he hasn't come up with anything new on the climate sensitivity front since then. Indeed, most of his recent writings are unpublished rambling rants, not scientific papers.

      Chylek's two recent publications on the sensitivity of the climate to CO2 are train wrecks of science. His first shot uses an inadequate 0D energy balance model which has a completely unrealistic treatment of the ocean transient response; anyone reputable in this field has been using models with 1D diffusive or upwelling-diffusive oceans for the last decade. Not coincidentally, he got that one published in the journal he edited. (In the same issue he also published a similar paper by Schwartz which was, if anything, even worse.) He also takes a very short and noisy time series, and doesn't do any uncertainty analysis on the trend or on the system response time — again, standard operating procedure for reputable work. His most recent work (still unpublished, AFAIK) doesn't even rise to the point of computing real trends; he throws out most of the data and picks a few peaks he happens to like (and doesn't do a real uncertainty analysis either, but that's the least of his problems).

      Christy hasn't published much about the effect of CO2 on climate, except for one new paper this year. I confess I haven't yet read it, so I can't comment on it. I should bump it up on my reading list. Oh, there was also his model-data comparison of the tropospheric lapse rate, which notoriously used ensemble averages to represent models instead of ensemble run envelopes. (Basically, you're a lot more certain about the average of a bunch of data than you are about any particular realization, so if you go with the former you're going overestimate the model uncertainty and amplify the statistical significance of discrepancies.)

      All these guys have been known to do good science in other areas, but that doesn't exempt them when they publish bad science, or good but wrong science.

      Once you start working your way through the journals, you will find that not all opinions are created equal. You keep touting yourself as an impartial, rational skeptic, but until you invest effort in actually studying the science, you're not going to have an appreciation of where the real scientific debate lies.

    64. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      No SUV's and coal-fired power plants back then dumping CO2 into the air, so why the warming/cooling fluctuations?

      They're attributed mostly to solar and volcanic activity, explanations which notably fail to explain recent trends.

      If you accept the fuzzy data saying we're on a long-term warming trend, then you must also accept the similarly-fuzzy data that says we're on a long-term cooling trend.

      The two data sets are not similar. We've had a couple centuries of warming, including a recent period of accelerated warming associated with CO2 increases. There isn't any data that indicates a long term cooling trend.

      Both have "facts" and data models backing them up.

      This is your continued mistake of remaining ignorant of the data and theory, which allows you to claim that all claims about the climate should be weighted equally.

      Even the vaunted IPCC had to fiddle with their data to make it look like we're on a long-term warming trend.

      Cite the source for your accusation. The IPCC doesn't fiddle with data. They simply summarize already-published data.

      Yes, it has been for a little while, but for the last few years it's been cooling. The warming models don't say how or why this should happen.

      Cooling on the scale of a few years is not at all unusual in the presence of the rather large natural variability which exists on interannual time scales; you see short term deviations from the overall warming trend all the time in individual GCM runs. Short term above-average and below-average trends get smoothed out when you take the mean trend.

    65. Re:Don't worry about global warming by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      Just a few examples of dissent, all of which come from disreputable, non-notable, totally-uneducated sources. Like this fellow:

      # Ian Clark, hydrogeologist, professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa: "That portion of the scientific community that attributes climate warming to CO2 relies on the hypothesis that increasing CO2, which is in fact a minor greenhouse gas, triggers a much larger water vapour response to warm the atmosphere. This mechanism has never been tested scientifically beyond the mathematical models that predict extensive warming, and are confounded by the complexity of cloud formation - which has a cooling effect. ... We know that [the sun] was responsible for climate change in the past, and so is clearly going to play the lead role in present and future climate change. And interestingly... solar activity has recently begun a downward cycle."[20]

      Or how about this one:

      # William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus and head of The Tropical Meteorology Project, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University: "This small warming is likely a result of the natural alterations in global ocean currents which are driven by ocean salinity variations. Ocean circulation variations are as yet little understood. Human kind has little or nothing to do with the recent temperature changes. We are not that influential."[23] "I am of the opinion that [global warming] is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people."[24] "So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thingâ"all these big labs and research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more."[25]

      Or how about this contributor to the IPCC report:

      # John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, contributor to several IPCC reports: "I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time."[49]

      You don't have to look hard to find dissenting voices to the popular global warmist crowd. The fact that you seem to believe they don't exist gives evidence that you haven't even tried to seek opposing viewpoints. One is taken to wondering why.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    66. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Got to run right now, but William Gray's claims are probably the most absurd of any of the ones you've cited so far. He basically says the warming is due to the meridional overturning circulation. That happens when the MOC strengthens. The problem is that the data indicate that, if anything, it has weakened. Moreover, the spatial pattern of temperature change doesn't look anything like heat transport to the North Atlantic. He's got no data at all to back himself up, and he's never published anything in the peer reviewed literature.

      Your condescending claims about what I have and have not "sought" notwithstanding, the fact is that I am well familiar with most of the usual suspects you've been citing, and that "dissenting claims" which are demonstrably wrong don't really count.

    67. Re:Don't worry about global warming by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      All these guys have been known to do good science in other areas, but that doesn't exempt them when they publish bad science, or good but wrong science.

      And of course, all your sources are unimpeachable, deeply imbued with nothing but the essence of honesty, integrity, impartiality, and infallibility. None of the generate global warmist data in at attempt to get more funding and grants. None of them have a bone to pick with capitalism. Paragons of virtue, all!

      Once you start working your way through the journals, you will find that not all opinions are created equal.

      Which is another way of saying "some opinions are more equal than others." I'm saying that what you present is so calamitous that the proof ought to be clear and unquestionable. Yet it is not. You freely admit your models are incomplete. You freely admit you cannot accurately predict past weather trends using the models you claim can predict future trends. Huge variables such as water vapor, cloud formation, planetary albedo, solar variation...most models omit all of them, and no model contains the full gamut of them and others that could affect the outcome. Yet you claim your results are infallible. Is it hubris that drives you to such a conclusion when it's completely obvious that you cannot possibly have an ironclad grasp on what's really going on?

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    68. Re:Don't worry about global warming by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      the fact is that I am well familiar with most of the usual suspects you've been citing, and that "dissenting claims" which are demonstrably wrong don't really count.

      If it's so cut and dried then please, by all means, enlighten me. Provide your proof. Back it up with data. Show me the model that predicts, within reasonable limits, the past 100-200 years of weather trends and also predicts the next 100 years. Show me how it accounts not for year-to-year variations but decade-to-decade variations that ought to be large enough to predict. Show me that it's all based on CO2, and the only way to counteract it is by massively reducing humanity's carbon footprint. When you can do that, I'll consider your case as having at least some validity. Until then, you have no more credibility than the sources you claim "don't really count."

      Lastly, if you want a pretty thorough list of scientists who are skeptical of warming -- or at least skeptical that it's anthropocentric -- go here. I'd love to see a post debunking all of them as hopeless crackpots. You do, of course, have data proving them as such...right?

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    69. Re:Don't worry about global warming by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      The chances of poachers slaughtering all of South Africa's elephants first is significantly lower than slaughtering all of Zimbabwe's elephants. The local tribesmen maximize their revenue when hired by poachers in Zimbabwe and when they fight poachers in South Africa. To nobody's surprise except those ignorant of human nature, both groups of locals try to maximize revenues within the system as it exists for them.

      Yes, there may be cases where the logic of privatization of commons does not hold but we've done it in so many areas already with superior results to public stewardship that privatization should get the benefit of the doubt. The elephant example is just one of many such cases.

    70. Re:Don't worry about global warming by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      And yours is compleat?

      More complete than your spelling education, I see.

      compleat. It's your spelling education that's deficient.

      And you aren't discounting or ignoring inconvenient facts as well?

      And what facts are those?

      it has been for a little while, but for the last few years it's been cooling.

      I haven't heard that, but if it is cooling then why was last year the year with the least summer ice in the Arctic? And why was this year have the second least ice cover? If it were cooling then there should be more ice not less.

      The problem with your guessing is that you're unable to separate your personal desires and agenda from what should be a rational thought process, hence your dogmatic insistence that anyone questioning your conclusions must be an idiot.

      Ah, another mind reader. Slashdot is filled with mindreaders. I wonder why they aren't as wealthy as Warren Buffet.

      Falcon

    71. Re:Don't worry about global warming by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      Not one of your sources disputes earth is warming up. What they do say is that CO2 should not be attributed to the warming. I've said before that there is a debate on whether the warming is human induced or not.

      You have confined your knowledge of the subject to nothing more than that which already agrees with you. That is not science. That is dogma.

      You're showing your dogma. If you had done your research you should have seen where I mentioned the debate on whether global warming was human induced.

      Falcon

    72. Re:Don't worry about global warming by fugue · · Score: 1

      Perhaps you can explain how this would work? In the case of elephants I can see it, but in the case of, say, the atmosphere, I can't. Someone would have to stand to profit by providing clean air. So someone would presumably have to be able to charge money for a service that clean air provides, and that dirty air doesn't. This seems, um, wrong? What am I missing?

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    73. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Temperatures are here. For CO2, direct measurements didn't start until the late 1950s. You can see those here. Earlier than that, you have to look at ice cores (which also extend later than that, although nobody uses them for times when instrumental data is available). You can see those here.

      According to your data, there were no measurements taken of atmospheric carbon dioxide until 1958. So we've got almost fifty years of measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Your temperature graph shows that the temperature has gone from about -0.2C in 1880 to 0.6C in 2000. That's about 0.8C change in 120 years. Is this really cause for concern? In 120 years of the heaviest industrial human activity in history, the temperature went up only 0.8 degrees Celsius. I can't even find "the 1940s" on your ice core sample graph, so it's not very useful.

      Thanks for providing data on this subject. Most people presenting "scientific arguments" in favor of global warming don't provide any data. That makes it very hard to discuss the subject. So it's not paranoia, the normal discussion of climate change contains no data, and is thus pretty much scientifically useless. If people would provide statements that were backed up by data, then the discussion would be easier for people to understand. For example, this statement has no data: "Carbon dioxide levels are up up up! And the temperature is going up too! If this continues, we'll all burn up and diiiiieeee!!".

      Compare with this statement, which contains data: "Atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements started in 1958. In 1958, carbon dioxide levels were about 315ppm. The level is now up to about 380ppm. That's an about a 20% increase in 50 years. In the same time, global temperature has gone up about 0.6C, an increase of about 1%."

      So here are some easy questions. If you can answer them, maybe people will be convinced about global warming!

      • We've only got 50 years of atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements. Isn't it a bit early to be calling it a catastrophe? Shouldn't we keep measuring it for a few more decades and see what happens?
      • Global temperature is up 0.8 degrees Celsius in 120 years. Is this really cause for concern? It seems like even if the temperature increase rate doubled or tripled, we might only get a 1 degree rise in the next 50 years. Who cares?
      • Coal contains carbon atoms right? And if we burn the coal, they turn into carbon dioxide and go into the atmosphere. Where did the atoms come from to get into the coal?
      • If you look at carbon dioxide levels in prehistoric times, they were much higher than today. For example. Wikipedia says that carbon dioxide was up to 4500ppm in the atmosphere in the Cambrian period and some millions of years after that. Where is the evidence that the much higher carbon dioxide levels back then caused any catastrophes? If carbon dioxide is so bad, why didn't all the carbon dioxide back then, over ten times higher than now, cause the earth to burn up and all life to die?
      • This global warming thing is all about computer models showing that the carbon dioxide levels are causing global temperatures to increase. How do you know that temperature increases aren't causing increased carbon dioxide levels? What results do those models predict if you put in the over 4000ppm levels seen in the prehistoric past? Why are we using "just came out of an ice age" as a baseline level of carbon dioxide?

      Thanks for reading.

    74. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      I'll present you with the following situation: you have just ingested a cup of colorless, odorless, tasteless fluid which you believed to be water. Suddenly, three complete strangers run into the room. The first carries a syringe and says "I am an expert in poisons! You just drank a deadly poison! Inject yourself right now with this syringe or the poison will kill you in a month!"

      This is your usual false analogy, which presumes that we have literally zero knowledge and that all outcomes and loss functions are equally plausible.

      An intelligent person might conclude that the smartest thing to do would be to find out which one of them is right before doing anything at all.

      We are never going to have certainty. Sorry, too bad. Life requires us to make decisions anyway. And while we don't have certainty, we do know, for instance, that 3 C of warming and 3 C of cooling by 2100 are not equally likely outcomes. If something we learn tomorrow is likely to overturn everything we know, you might have a point, but that too doesn't represent our true state of knowledge of the climate system. We learn about it slowly and it takes many years of data to appreciably change estimates of a noisy system which are already based on many years of data.

      Instead, you're suggesting that we do something in the hopes that (a) it's the right thing to do, (b) it's worth the cost, and (c) it isn't overlooking some crucial flaw that will cause even greater damage. You have not satisfied any of these criteria beyond a reasonable reproach.

      No, you simply dismiss the vast amount of science and economics that has been done. As far as I can tell, you haven't even read any of it, and thus take the "he said/she said" position that anything that anybody says is equally plausible.

      What you don't understand is this: I am open to being convinced,

      No, you're not. You may believe it, but you've already said that you're willing to dismiss pretty much the entire scientific literature by virtue of it having been cited by the IPCC. Well, if you're going to ignore anything that they cite, you're going to ignore almost all of the science. It's just an excuse for you to dismiss arbitrarily large amounts of evidence, and then you ironically keep parading around how "unbiased" and "open minded" you are.

      The premise of insurance is that it guarantees to protect you from a potential threat. You can't guarantee the threat

      On the contrary, we have considerable evidence that CO2 emissions under business-as-usual will lead to between 2 and 5 degrees of warming this century, depending on how much "business as usual" ends up emitting.

      but, and most importantly, you can't guarantee the insurance will actually protect against the potential threat.

      Again, to the contrary, we have even more considerable evidence that this threat is due to increases in CO2 levels, and therefore reducing the rate at which they are emitted will reduce the threat.

      Indeed, if you're really wrong, implementing the insurance could exacerbate the situation. More study is needed.

      "More study" is always needed. That doesn't change the fact that we already know enough to know that there is a risk, and it doesn't change the fact that we learn slowly about the climate system, so delaying 50 years to really nail down climate sensitivity is not a prudent option.

    75. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      If it's so cut and dried then please, by all means, enlighten me. Provide your proof. Back it up with data. Show me the model that predicts, within reasonable limits, the past 100-200 years of weather trends and also predicts the next 100 years.

      I already cited the IPCC report, which references pretty much every important study in this field. You ignored it.

      Show me that it's all based on CO2,

      It's not all based on CO2, but CO2 has been the largest contributor since the latter half of the 20th century, and barring some truly dramatic and unusual change in natural sources, it's going to continue growing as an influence.

      Lastly, if you want a pretty thorough list of scientists who are skeptical of warming -- or at least skeptical that it's anthropocentric -- go here. I'd love to see a post debunking all of them as hopeless crackpots.

      Give me a break. I am not going to write a personal rebuttal to every single person who has expressed an opinion on the matter, just to convince somebody on Slashdot who has already stated that they intentionally intend to ignore the mainstream scientific literature. In particular, when someone just states an opinion and doesn't give any science to back it up, there's nothing to rebut. I've already given you some specific criticisms of a few papers. If you want to single out a few which you think are the most devastating critiques of AGW, bring them up and we can discuss them.

    76. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      And of course, all your sources are unimpeachable, deeply imbued with nothing but the essence of honesty, integrity, impartiality, and infallibility.

      This is not a he said/she said debate over who is "credible". You claim that you want to discuss facts and science. I gave specific reasons WHY those papers are wrong, and I can give much more detail than that; I've read almost every major climate sensitivity paper published in the last 5 years. You've got nothing but "I don't believe you". Well, cut the crap about being open to scientific discussion then.

      If you've got a problem with THE SCIENCE, say what it is. Don't just sit around slinging vague accusations of bias and dishonesty as an excuse to ignore the scientific literature.

    77. Re:Don't worry about global warming by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Hi again. Thanks for your questions. It's refreshing to see some honest questions unaccompanied by snide allegations about socialism and funding bias.

      According to your data, there were no measurements taken of atmospheric carbon dioxide until 1958.

      There are no direct instrumental measurements before then, but there are ice core measurements of past CO2 which was trapped there in gas bubbles.

      Your temperature graph shows that the temperature has gone from about -0.2C in 1880 to 0.6C in 2000. That's about 0.8C change in 120 years. Is this really cause for concern?

      By itself, no. It's the potential larger warming in the future which is cause for concern; as CO2 emissions accelerate and as the oceans warm from earlier greenhouse effects, could see a further warming of several degrees over a similar time period.

      In 120 years of the heaviest industrial human activity in history, the temperature went up only 0.8 degrees Celsius.

      CO2 levels have only increased by about 35% over 150 years. We're on course to double them in the next 50 years! Furthermore, the climate system shows a lagged response: because of the thermal inertial of the oceans, the greenhouse effect we experience today is not fully realized at the surface, because some of the heat goes into the oceans. As the oceans warm, we eventually see the full effect of the warming.

      I can't even find "the 1940s" on your ice core sample graph, so it's not very useful.

      The 1940s are in the graph, although the horizontal scale is compressed. Although it's hard to pick out exactly which data points are the 1940s, you can clearly see that the 1940s were not the period when CO2 levels were at their highest; that is today.

      Compare with this statement, which contains data: "Atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements started in 1958. In 1958, carbon dioxide levels were about 315ppm. The level is now up to about 380ppm. That's an about a 20% increase in 50 years. In the same time, global temperature has gone up about 0.6C, an increase of about 1%."

      This comparison is slightly misleading. You shouldn't compare percent increase in CO2 to percent increase in temperature. Temperature responds to radiative forcing (heat), not CO2 levels directly. Radiative forcing is logarithmic in CO2 levels, so you need to look at changes in log CO2. More importantly, you need to look at changes in log CO2 relative to other sources of radiative forcing. The forcing due to at 280->380 ppm increase in CO2 works out to be about 2 watts per square meter (see the IPCC report), compared to an overall planetary flux of, I forget, something like 300-400 W/m^2. So we're looking at roughly a 1% increase in forcing and a 1% increase in absolute temperature.

      We've only got 50 years of atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements.

      We have 50 years of direct instrumental measurements, but we have 800,000+ years of good CO2 data (see Luethi et al. in Nature this year), and longer periods of less good data. (You note that CO2 levels were higher in the distant past, so obviously you believe we've got more than 50 years of data.) Current CO2 levels are higher than they've been at any time in the last 800,000 years! (And probably for longer than that, based on our less accurate data.)

      Isn't it a bit early to be calling it a catastrophe? Shouldn't we keep measuring it for a few more decades and see what happens?

      Measuring CO2 isn't going to tell us much; we know from economics that it's going to increase a lot, and measuring it will only confirm that fact. If you're suggesting that we need to keep measuring it to make sure it's ours, there are about five independent lines of evidence that say it is, which I can go into detail about. That's really an incontrovertible fact of the science.

    78. Re:Don't worry about global warming by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      Actually, it's not profiting by clean air but having a tort (legal cause of action in civil court) if your pollution strays downwind and you can't come to agreement with those affected. The mechanism is not carrot, but stick.

    79. Re:Don't worry about global warming by fugue · · Score: 1

      Ah, not a carrot. That's somewhat helpful... so I could sue people who own SUVs? Nice. Or Japan could sue China (and vice versa)--but in what court? It still seems that there must be a single world government for the management of global resources. And they'd need a military, or at least contracts with member countries' militaries, because a court decision without the ability to hurt people is pretty meaningless. If the USA ever invades another country for polluting, I will be very impressed :)

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    80. Re:Don't worry about global warming by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      National sovereignty still being the rule of things, you would not sue the country per se but rather you would have the mother of all class action lawsuits where identified deep pockets polluters would be named as defendants with plaintiffs being those affected by the pollution, individual and business alike.

      Here's a case that might shed light on how things will work out after conviction. When OJ Simpson was sued by Ron Goldman for the wrongful death of his son, Goldman pursued Simpson and continues to pursue him for any money Simpson makes to satisfy the huge judgment. Goldman is Simpson's Javert and likely will be the rest of Simpson's life.

      Like the Ron Goldman/OJ Simpson result, we wouldn't be able to invade to directly impose our post-judgment will but we would be able to seize the PRC's exports created by guilty defendants at the docks as they enter the US, for instance, in satisfaction of the judgment. Dirty factories making export goods would become impossible. Suit would be filed in the West, likely in the 9th Circuit as far as the PRC is concerned as most of the seizures would be happening in ports covered by that appeals court. No doubt similar strategic jurisdiction hunting would happen in other countries.

      Long before things got to the point of exports for free, investors would bail out of polluting manufacturing facilities and polluting factories would become uneconomic.

      Now it would be true that facilities that have owners who serve only the domestic market would not be affected by this method. But in an increasingly globalized world we're talking about a shrinking segment.

      1. Factory output goes overseas = affected
      2. Factory domestic but company exports other stuff = affected
      3. Factory owners have international assets = affected
      4. Factory owners have no international assets but would like to eventually sell to others = affected
      5. Factory owners want to raise international capital = affected
      6. Factory owners have no international assets, no exports, don't ever want to raise capital outside the country, and dont' ever want to sell to foreign owners = not affected.

      Possibility 6 is so remote and getting 1-5 is so much better than present that I'd consider this a tremendous improvement over the status quo where multinationals simply export pollution to the PRC et al.

  28. Yay Stephen Baxter by maihardu · · Score: 0

    So Michael Poole needs to get on this pronto.

    1. Re:Yay Stephen Baxter by QuantumG · · Score: 1

      He's still on the phone trying to justify why he needs to fly.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
  29. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And I think you're confusing satanists with nuns.

  30. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    This is what it would be like, if the majority of people were athiests.

    All I can say to the OP is:
    BEST. SITCOM. PITCH. EVER.

  31. Methane prime suspect for greatest mass extinction by MrMista_B · · Score: 4, Informative

    http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn2088

    "The release of massive clouds of methane from icy hydrates buried under shallow ocean floors is the leading suspect for the most devastating extinction in the fossil record, according to a new analysis.

    Methane best matches the unusual carbon-isotope fingerprints found at the scene of the crime, says Robert Berner of Yale University in Connecticut, US, though it cannot explain atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at the time.

    Berner says: "It's possible that you could have a combination" of effects causing the mass extinction that ended the Permian period, 250 million years ago. The event wiped out the vast majority of marine species and left Europe a near-desert."

    Oh shi...

  32. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Without the framework of religion, why is it "wrong" to kill someone?

    It isn't. Regardless of religion. You just have to follow the correct protocol. War is something that never goes out of fashion.

  33. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by The+Master+Control+P · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Evolution has hardwired it into our brains: Killing fellow tribe members is bad for survival, ergo it will be perceived as immoral.

  34. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by TheDugong · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I was told it was "thou shall not murder" rather than "thou shall not kill" by gun toting right winger christian wack-jobs. Christianity seems not to have this framework. Judging by Islamic extremists, neither does Islam. The death penalty only seems to be part of the legal code of countries with a religious majority as well. From my own coincidentally atheist point of view, it is wrong to kill someone because if we spent all our time worrying about being killed civilization would fall apart. Well actually, we are here precisely because we are able to work, for the most part, cooperatively and not worry about killing each other. Then again, I do wonder why I am responding to an AC...?

  35. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When you dig down the temperature gets hotter. There is this thing called the core and it's made of molten lava. Do some research on how mines operate when they tunnel underground. Hint: they don't need block heaters.

  36. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by totally+bogus+dude · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The current Rehabilitating Mr Wiggles answers this question: because it's kind of a dick thing to do.

    Seriously though, if everyone went around killing each other whenever it suited them, you'd always be in danger of being killed yourself. There's very compelling reasons for a society to collectively agree that killing each other is a bad thing and that it won't be tolerated. No need for a fear of divine retribution.

  37. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by amRadioHed · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Why is it that it is wrong to kill someone in just about every religion? Somehow, regardless of culture people have all figured it out that killing each other is bad. It's really not that hard.

    --
    We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
  38. Mods by TapeCutter · · Score: 1, Informative

    "Of course water is warmer... since the last glacial period... since the Little Ice Age... Oh, but recently oceans and atmosphere have been cooling."

    How is this bullshit insightfull?

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    1. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 1

      Because it's true?

    2. Re:Mods by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      I wish it was, but the skeptic inside me refuses to let go of the facts.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    3. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 1

      I'm sorry, but the facts are readily available. The warming trend we've seen since the late 70s (which is nicely correlated with the PDO warm cycle) stopped about 8-10 years ago and is now cooling again (and the PDO just shifted to its cool phase).

      There are temperature records for oceans, troposphere and land. It seems you've only seen the readings for land temperatures (which are extremely biased due to urbanization) - you might want to check the ocean and atmosphere readings.

    4. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 1

      Please reply again if you have anything constructive to add to the debate :)

    5. Re:Mods by Goaway · · Score: 1

      Why would I? You haven't presented anything even worth replying to yet, just unquestioningly parroting garbage. If you can't even see through that kind of bullshit yourself, what chance do I have? You obviously have something you want very much to believe, and you're not going to let facts get in the way of that.

    6. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 0, Troll

      I'll take this as you having no constructive arguments then. Thanks for making that clear :)

      Myself I like facts to support my arguments, and I'm also a strong believer in falsifiability in science. The "CO2 causes warming" argument has failed horribly for quite a few years now, and it's thus likely that it's a bad hypothesis.

      Svensmark's hypothesis, on the other hand, looks increasingly more valid. Nice to see some tests being planned on that one soon.

    7. Re:Mods by TapeCutter · · Score: 3, Informative

      "Myself I like facts to support my arguments, and I'm also a strong believer in falsifiability in science."

      Strange then that we haven't seen any from you in this thread, but since you have now named a source I will happily be moded flaimbait again by repating my original call of bullshit to your "facts". I like this random site by an amature astronomer, it mentions Svensmark, but I encourage readers to do their own debunking like that scientific amature has done, what follows is my own summary...

      Svensmark for those who don't know him belives cosmic rays influence cloud cover, and this explains...well, everything! The glaring problem with this idea, (that incidently demands a "do nothing because nothing can be done" response), is that the 3-4 decade long data set that measures cosmic rays shows no statisticaly significant trend whatsoever. Extra points for those who can find the raw cosmic data sets, AFAIK they are available 'somewhere' on the net. Svensmark now claims that the current cooling is because of a change in cosmic rays, problem is we are not currently cooling and no change in cosmic rays has been detected. Now some people will confuse cosmic rays with sunspots and this is encouraged by Svensmark, problem is that if it's "sunspots" then why doesn't the climate have an 11yr cycle like sunspot activity does? - IMHO and as a holder of a science degree Svensmark's "theory's" are like swiss cheese and his motivations for demanding inactivity are embarrasingly obvious.

      For those who like Occam's razor here's how to shave Svensmark: Clouds are the most uncertain part of climate models, the effect of cosmic rays on clouds is even less certain and produces no detectable forcing outside the current margin of error for clouds.

      Here is a similarly terse application of Occam by the UK's Met office. It's the only myth they can be bothered debunking in their "toolkit", the rest of their toolkit panel contains "facts" that you might want to look at, you know - to support your future arguments.

      BTW: A genuine attempt on your behalf to debunk those "facts" will also inform your "strong beliefs" as only genuine skepticisim can.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    8. Re:Mods by MrHanky · · Score: 1

      So it's the great Greenland cities that cause the ice to melt at a record rate? Land based ice and sea based ice alike.

    9. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Nice summary, unfortunately you come of as a raving lunatic claiming that epicycles IS the only explanation mankind need and that it's BLASPHEMOUS to claim that there is some other kind of explanation!

      I still like facts, and thus I'll happily wait for the CLOUD experiment at CERN with regards to Svensmark's hypothesis.

      http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/3124

      http://cloud.web.cern.ch/cloud/

    10. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 1

      Why are you under the impression that ice in Greenland (land and sea based) melting is not normal? Feel free to add the whole arctic if you want :) We have numerous records during the whole 20th century about passages being open to the left and right and during the last millennia we have had the REASON for Greenland being called "green" as well as the Thames in London freezing over.

      Please let me know what of all this you would accept as "normal" ;)

    11. Re:Mods by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Facts are readily available. Interpretations of facts parrotted from skeptical websites instead of based on the scientific literature are, as another poster pointed out, a recipe for disaster.

      Claims that global warming comes from the ocean generically fail to account for the observed space/time pattern of heat penetration into the ocean. You claim that the warming since the 1970s can be accounted for this way, but the ocean heat data (see, e.g., Levitus) show a continued penetration of heat from the surface into deeper water. The warming isn't coming from heat already in the ocean; it's just the opposite. Specific causes such as the PDO, in addition to the problems with explaining ocean heat trends, fail in other ways: the spatial pattern of observed warming is far broader than the warming correlated with the PDO index (see, e.g., the review by Mantua and Hare).

      It's kind of amusing that you're still claiming that the land temperature record is "hugely biased" due to urbanization. I thought that horse was beat dead some time ago. There are several quantifications of the urban heat island (UHI) effect cited in the IPCC AR4 report, which show the effect is small. But since you don't appear to like getting your science from scientists, I might also note that one of the Climate Audit contributors found that you get similar warming trends if you limit yourself to what SurfaceStations deems "high quality" stations. Furthermore, you get similar warming if you restrict yourself to just rural stations; a related bias correction procedure is done e.g. in the GISTEMP homogenization algorithm. You say that we should look at the ocean and atmosphere readings, but they also show warming since 1970, which is entirely consistent with the land warming.

    12. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 0

      Yes they do, for the northern hemisphere, and no one is claiming there hasn't been any :) It's however not as dramatic as land temperatures would make us believe, and it also concides perfectly with what we already know is a warm trend compared to when before satellite measurements began.

      That warm trend has now been broken, and temperatures are on their way down. This falsifies the CO2 hypothesis.

    13. Re:Mods by MrHanky · · Score: 2, Informative

      Dude. The glaciers on Greenland are several thousands of years old. The southern cape of Greenland, the part being inhabited by people from Norway and Iceland, was not covered with ice, and neither has it been since then. It is in fact at about the same latitude as Erik the Red's birthplace in Norway -- south of Iceland, about as far north as Anchorage. Also, the reason for Greenland being called Greenland may have been because of its shallow ("grunn") fjords, as it was also transcribed Gruntland back in those days. The etymology is simply unknown, so your bullshit isn't convincing at all. It's just not based on fact.

      But OK, a couple of links:
      1
      2.

    14. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 1

      Dude. Absolutely nothing in your links point to credible data with regards to any human caused abnormal global warming. They don't even contain any data pointing to the observed events being abnormal in the timescale of a single millennia.

      With regards to Vikings in Greenland. Even Wikipedia has a better grasp of the local climate there during the Medeival warm period than you display here ;)

    15. Re:Mods by MrHanky · · Score: 1

      Nice non-sequitur. The links were about establishing whether melting occurs on an abnormal rate. You claim it doesn't, the link establish that it does.

      Also, the wikipedia page on Greenland doesn't contradict me in any way.

    16. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 1

      No, the link does not establish that.

    17. Re:Mods by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Yes they do, for the northern hemisphere, and no one is claiming there hasn't been any :) It's however not as dramatic as land temperatures would make us believe,

      I have no idea what that sentence is supposed to be in response to. What is "they" and "it"?

      Guessing at what you're talking about, please note that satellite and surface land temperature trends are in agreement, and land temperature trends are supposed to be larger than ocean temperature trends, due to differing heat capacity.

      and it also concides perfectly with what we already know is a warm trend compared to when before satellite measurements began.

      What is "it"? The PDO? The PDO does not account for global temperature trends for reasons I already explained.

      That warm trend has now been broken, and temperatures are on their way down. This falsifies the CO2 hypothesis.

      The CO2 hypothesis does not predict an unbroken warming trend.

    18. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 1

      Yes you're guessing correctly, but there seems to be very little to reply to in your post. Anyway, the PDO doesn't cause global temperature trends, but it has most likely influenced north american temperatures ( http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/26/nasa-jpl-heatwaves-its-the-asphalt-not-the-atmosphere/ ). Repeating myself - the so called global warming was really northern hemisphere warming, and has stopped (and is currently likely declining).

      Now let's go find the best matching hypothesis for that data. CO2 isn't it - there's nothing in the climate models predicting a levelling of and the start of a decline while CO2 levels have continued to rise. It seems there might be a better match when looking at solar activity - possibly with ocean currents as secondary effects that need to be taken into account when looking for that elusive "perfect match".

      Stop treating AGW as a religion.

    19. Re:Mods by Goaway · · Score: 1

      I'll take this as you having no constructive arguments then.

      Then you must be unable to read.

      However, I'll be happy to tell you some arguments if you show the tiniest sign of actually being interested in hearing them for any other reason than to disagree with them.

      For instance, you could take a guess at why I refererred to statistics. Can you think of any reason why that would be relevant?

    20. Re:Mods by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Yes you're guessing correctly, but there seems to be very little to reply to in your post. Anyway, the PDO doesn't cause global temperature trends, but it has most likely influenced north american temperatures

      Duh, any climate process affects temperatures. The point is that the PDO is not responsible for the modern global temperature trend, for reasons I already pointed out and you have twice ignored.

      the so called global warming was really northern hemisphere warming,

      and has stopped (and is currently likely declining).

      On the contrary, there is nothing in the climate trend over the last 10 years which is incompatible with ordinary natural variability. Give it 10-15 more years and you might be able to say something with statistical confidence.

      Now let's go find the best matching hypothesis for that data. CO2 isn't it - there's nothing in the climate models predicting a levelling of and the start of a decline while CO2 levels have continued to rise.

      You've never looked at the output of a climate model, have you? Go into the PCMDI CMIP3 archive and look at some of the forced transient runs. There are all kinds of transient fluctuations on decadal timescales.

      It seems there might be a better match when looking at solar activity

      Despite the huge disagreement of solar activity with climate trends over the last 40 years in rate, magnitude, and even sign of the change.

      possibly with ocean currents as secondary effects that need to be taken into account when looking for that elusive "perfect match".

      Ocean currents contribute, but their contribution cannot account for the majority of the observed climate trends, again for reasons I have already stated.

    21. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 1

      Sorry, but while you're stating quite a lot that really doesn't help since that's either your opinion or an unproven hypothesis. Science (as opposed to religion) has no problems with competing hypothesises where testing and falsifiability are the means to find the better model.

      (You also seem to be very confused as to how the current thinking goes with solar influense - why do you believe the last 40 years aren't a good match? The cycles have been very strong and quite short)

    22. Re:Mods by Ambitwistor · · Score: 2, Informative

      Sorry, but while you're stating quite a lot that really doesn't help since that's either your opinion or an unproven hypothesis.

      Uh, no, it's basic physics. If you think the oceans have been warming the planet since the 1970s, they should be losing heat, but they are gaining heat. The heat penetration pattern indicates that the heat is coming from the surface, i.e. the atmosphere. This is in the Levitus paper I mentioned. If you look at the spatial pattern of temperature change which correlates with the PDO, it doesn't look like the overall temperature pattern, and the PDO-correlated warming is only a small fraction of the total warming. This is in the PDO review I mentioned.

      There's only so long you can weasel out of the fact that you don't know any science and get all your knowledge of climate from skeptic web sites.

      Science (as opposed to religion)

      Yeah, you've got nothing. When all you can resort to is insisting that a scientific position is "religion", you've lost.

      has no problems with competing hypothesises where testing and falsifiability are the means to find the better model.

      The hypotheses you've proposed have been proven wrong, and the CO2 hypothesis has not. Deal with it.

      You also seem to be very confused as to how the current thinking goes with solar influense

      Oh yeah? Thinking like Foukal et al. in Science (2006?), or Stott et al.'s piece in J. Climate, or Lockwood and Froelich last year?

      why do you believe the last 40 years aren't a good match?

      Read the papers I cited.

    23. Re:Mods by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      The first part of your post seems to be talking about something I never said, perhaps there is another raving loony in this thread.

      I think it's great the CERN are taking the idea seriously enough to test it, lets hope Svenmark is brave enough to face up to the results should they turn out to be different to what he expects.

      Having said that (and assuming cosmic rays do influence clouds), the effect of GH gasses doesn't go away just because somebody found out more about clouds. This is like saying gravity is wrong because the Wright brothers discovered flight. What would happen is that the error bars of the estimated forcing effect of clouds will narrow and that would be a GoodThing(TM) for climate modeling.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    24. Re:Mods by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      First you said to the GP "point to credible data" and when he does you simply state "No". It may also have escaped your notice but you are the one making extrodinary claims yet you have given nothing to support them.

      It may not come as a surprise to you but I think you have a mental problem that forces you to project your intellectual failings onto others. OTOH perhaps you know what you are doing and enjoy being a fool/troll. Either way you need phycological help.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    25. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 1

      Maybe it was hard to figure out what you said and what you quoted. I usually use italics to point out which is which.

      Anyway, Svensmark is a scientist, yes.

      (You seem to believe that there's a consensus around the effects of GH gasses. There's not. It's likely that we will find a much better explanation for the small warming between 197x and ~2000 and the whole CO2 nonsense will go away)

    26. Re:Mods by Troed · · Score: 1

      I'm simply pointing out that the link does not support his statement :) I fail to see how that's "trollish".

  39. Re:Speculation by S-100 · · Score: 1

    You do know that the hottest water found in nature is in the depths of the ocean, don't you? Superheated water turns to steam at 100C at the surface of the earth, but this same water released at the "depths of the ocean" are under intense pressure so the boiling point is much higher.

    There are many places in the world where methane oozes from the surface. In some places, they support an open flame. This story is interesting, but it's probably just nature doing what nature does.

  40. Mass extinction at end of Permian by AliasMarlowe · · Score: 5, Informative

    The mass extinction at the end of the Permian has been attributed to numerous causes. One of the prime theories also has to do with rapid release of methyl hydrates from ocean-floor clathrates.

    The theory goes along the lines that oceanic overturning (exchange of bottom waters with surface waters) was limited in the Permian (even after the end of the Permo-Carboniferous glacial period), allowing accumulation of clathrates in oceanic sediments. However, overturning increased in the late Permian due to changes in oceanic circulation. This is conjectured to have caused massive releases of methane from methyl hydrates, with consequent large rapid swings in climate on land and in sea.

    The evidence is not conclusive, but is strong. Most of it is derived from studies of marine fossils and isotope ratios. Discussion of the evidence and assessment of this and other theories for the extinction may be found, for example, in:
    D.H. Erwin, The Great Paleozoic Crisis: Life and Death in the Permian, Columbia University Press, New York NY, 1993. ISBN:0715301306.

    Of course, oceanic overturning is much stronger in the modern world, with deepwater formation especially strong in the North Atlantic and at the margins of Antarctica. This suggests the potential for clathrate release is probably rather less than it was in the late Permian, but not necessarily negligible. Another conjectured effect of global warming is slowing of oceanic overturning

    The degree to which evidence supports these conjectures regarding ancient disruptions to climate is open to interpretation.

    --
    Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. - Voltaire
    1. Re:Mass extinction at end of Permian by Ambitwistor · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There is recent evidence that methane clathrate destabilization alone couldn't have caused the PETM, because that scenario doesn't agree with paleo-reconstructions of the ocean lysocline. See Panchuk et al., Geology 36, 315 (2008).

    2. Re:Mass extinction at end of Permian by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      AliasMarlowe : The mass extinction at the end of the Permian has been attributed to numerous causes.
      [SNIP]
      D.H. Erwin, The Great Paleozoic Crisis: Life and Death in the Permian, Columbia University Press, New York NY, 1993. ISBN:0715301306.
      Ambitwistor : There is recent evidence that methane clathrate destabilization alone couldn't have caused the PETM,

      "PETM" = Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
      That's about 200 million years (plus the rise and fall of the dinosaurs, several large meteorites, and the first radiative differentiation of the eutherian mammals) later than the end-Permian, end-Palaeozoic "Great Dying".

      Sorry to be picky, but you do sound like you know more about this sort of thing than 98% of SlashDot contributors, so higher standards are expected.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    3. Re:Mass extinction at end of Permian by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Aw crap. I totally misread Permian as Paleocene, probably because I just read the Panchuk paper about methane clathrates ... thanks. I shouldn't have been modded up.

    4. Re:Mass extinction at end of Permian by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Aw crap. I totally misread Permian as Paleocene,

      People in glass houses ... Have you spotted my deliberate mistakes in this topic? [Says I ,covering my ass.]

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  41. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by religious+freak · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The Hebrew verb originally used is generally considered to be interpreted by "murder" (too lazy to look up a reference, but I've heard it a number of times) - so it is thou shalt not murder. No large scale social framework could function for a long period of time without the ability to kill. I guess you could point to certain eastern religions like the Jains as having functioned, but they generally get their asses handed to them throughout history.

    It's the difference in interpretation of exactly what "murder" is that determines the destructive societies from the constructive ones.

    Funny thing is that Islam has an even stronger moral code against killing innocents than Christianity, yet they are the ones which have the least problem with targeting purely civilian populations.

    Perhaps this goes to show that it's not necessarily what your holy book says literally, it depends on who your contemporary religious leaders are.

    --
    If you can read this... 01110101 01110010 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100111 01100101 01100101 01101011
  42. Capture and reuse! by blankoboy · · Score: 1

    Seeing as there is no way we can really stop this build up of methane from escaping at this point, we should be finding a way to capture and process it to reuse it.

    1. Re:Capture and reuse! by Patrik_AKA_RedX · · Score: 1

      Great idea! Here are some plastic bags...

    2. Re:Capture and reuse! by freddy_dreddy · · Score: 1

      yes ... a doomsday scenario is unfolding before our eyes.
      Now how can we make a profit out of it ?

      --
      "Violence is the last refuge of the competent, and, generally, the first refuge of the incompetent" - Thing_1
    3. Re:Capture and reuse! by plasmacutter · · Score: 1

      yes ... a doomsday scenario is unfolding before our eyes.
      Now how can we make a profit out of it ?

      You mock, but that's how a tenacious species survives: by engaging in evolutionary judo.. turning the weight of misfortune into a boon.

      Please don't mistake this for social darwinism, which IS disgusting and underhanded, as it's nothing more than justification for theft and exploitation.

      --
      VLC FOR MAC IS DYING! IF YOU DEVELOP, PLEASE SAVE IT!!
    4. Re:Capture and reuse! by freddy_dreddy · · Score: 1

      that's how a tenacious species survives: by engaging in evolutionary judo

      These gas-bubbles shouldn't be looked at as an opportunity. Capturing the methane gives it a fluffy thumbs-up green kind of touch. It's literally saying: "this aspect of global warming isn't a threat but a silver lining". In truth it's one of the scariest and most confronting in a series of recent events. The reason I mock is that as a species we're going for gold in the Darwin awards and we're pretty much enjoying it, cashing in on it where we can. The last guy standing will not be the physically nor the mentally fittest, it'll be the bugger who sells the DVDs we made to document our decline.

      --
      "Violence is the last refuge of the competent, and, generally, the first refuge of the incompetent" - Thing_1
  43. The swarm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Read the book the swarm this shit aint funny the book was fiction but it got all of its science from this shit and its pretty solid, and can show easily how bad this can get and how fast.

    1. Re:The swarm by Noctris · · Score: 1

      I read that book too and thought the same a couple of times.. Then i realized the chances are rather slim that Killer Clamps, whales, shrimp and jellyfish are going to take over the world any time soon....

  44. SIBERIA? Give me a break by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If that's the worst thing going on in Siberia that's good for them.

  45. Re:Speculation by Walkingshark · · Score: 1

    Yes, near geothermal vents, which is like saying that if I light a match in my house that the entire house is burning at 1000 degrees. The ocean is very very big, the small hot spots you speak of are not enough to melt the kind of area we're talking about here. This scenario was in fact exactly what scientists were worried about when these fields of methane were first discovered. Of course, at the time they talked about it more out of a sense of wilf speculation on possibility, not as something they thought was going to happen in their lifetimes.

    --
    The world you experience is only a close approximation of reality.
  46. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by beckje01 · · Score: 1

    So why would you judge based on extremists? They are the outliers you have to throw them out of the sample.

  47. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by rossz · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Funny thing is that Islam has an even stronger moral code against killing innocents than Christianity, yet they are the ones which have the least problem with targeting purely civilian populations.

    Easily explained. "Innocents" is defined as "muslim". Christians, Jews, Hindus, etc, don't count. And they are killing each other off because they tend to not extend the the definition of "innocent" to other muslim sects. Or they are just murdering assholes who are complete nut jobs. Religious extremism tends to do that to people.

    I read a paper by some muslim cleric justifying the murdering of civilians in Israel. Jewish babies grow up and everybody is Israel is required to server time in the military. Therefore, they are fully justified in killing future "zionist" soldiers. Sick fucker. I'd say that cleric needs killing.

    --
    -- Will program for bandwidth
  48. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    That's just what The Man keeps telling you to keep you down and subservient to the white man's dominion.

  49. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by cgoodric · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    And yet some of the world's worst atrocities were committed (and are still being committed) in the name of those very same religions. Hmmm ...

  50. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by rossz · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Not all religions preach against killing people. The muslims are told very specifically they must either convert non-believers or kill them.

    --
    -- Will program for bandwidth
  51. why is it "wrong" to kill someone by Capsaicin · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It does touch on a point I've wondered about: religion seems to be the foundation of much of our societal moral code. Without the framework of religion, why is it "wrong" to kill someone?

    Reminds me of thing Nietzsche wrote about the madman in the market place, "now that we've killed God, which way is up or down?" This is known as the question of 'grounding' and is the subject of much debate in the study of ethics.

    Religion does provide one ground. It is perhaps most effective because it relies on blind obedience and discourages thinking. "What is wrong with murder ... easy ... God says don't do it." But other grounds, more suitable to thinking creatures do exist. Kant's categorical imperative, for example, "Want to live in a world where every person tries kill every other? No? Then don't kill."

    Putting aside the question of grounding, it is my contention that a Christian cannot appreciate the true gravity of murder in the way an atheist can. Christians have convinced themselves in the existence of an afterlife. For them killing a human is merely removing them from this world (the less important world). An atheist on the other hand realises that killing a human being is the snuffing out of an individual and unique consciousness for all time. A consciousness which longs for existence, just as much as our own does. It is this moral consideration which stops the atheist killing. Theists instead act only in obedience to their God motivated by ultimate personal reward. You might go even further and state that whereas atheists can truly be moral creatures, theists can't.

    --
    Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
    1. Re:why is it "wrong" to kill someone by TheLink · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "it is my contention that a Christian cannot appreciate the true gravity of murder in the way an atheist can. "

      That's very wrong if that Christian believes that there is a place/situation/state called Hell, and that is is a very very very bad place/situation/state to be in[1].

      Whereas many atheists believe once you die, that's it - nonexistence. IMO that is arguably an _infinitely_ better situation to be in.

      Based on popular Christian doctrine:

      If you killing a nonchristian you risk sending them to Hell.
      If you kill a christian you send them to Heaven.

      Therefore, if it is a choice between letting a christian live vs a nonchristian live, logic has it that the christian is expendable. Lots of christians can't accept it when I tell them stuff like if it were a choice between killing a robber/soldier or letting the robber/soldier kill your child, logic has it you should not kill the robber/soldier (unless perhaps in the case where you know he is a Christian? ;) ).

      Sure in the real world and real scenarios, it might be that christian could save more nonchristians if he/she lives. But there have been many examples of christians dying and causing very many nonchristians to become christians eventually. e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Auca

      A Christian is someone who follows Jesus. When Jesus came, he said christians are to love one another, turn the other cheek etc. He most certainly didn't say go around killing people. So if christians go around killing (even Christians), they're not doing a good job of following Jesus. It might even be they're not actually genuine followers.

      [1] This is not what Christianity claims hell is, but I have been considering that:

      Assuming humans indeed have immortal souls. Then imagine an eternal existence without God, where after rejecting the only one who can make you perfect, you continue to exist eternally but in your imperfect form. The first 1000 years might be amusing. Maybe even a million years would be fun. Even after the last stars faded to utter darkness, you would be no closer to your end.

      Naturally you being imperfect can't be allowed into Heaven - where everyone has been made perfect - otherwise you would eventually make it Hell.

      Eternity is a very long time to be "not good enough". Maybe some people are good enough to enjoy Eternity without help from God. I don't think I am.

      --
    2. Re:why is it "wrong" to kill someone by Sabriel · · Score: 1

      An atheist on the other hand realises that killing a human being is the snuffing out of an individual and unique consciousness for all time.

      Disbelieving in God's existence does not mandate that an atheist must disbelieve in an afterlife. Your contention re Christian vs Atheist appreciation of the gravity of murder needs re-examination.

    3. Re:why is it "wrong" to kill someone by init100 · · Score: 1

      Theists instead act only in obedience to their God motivated by ultimate personal reward.

      Why not fear of the expected punishment?

    4. Re:why is it "wrong" to kill someone by pbhj · · Score: 1

      It is perhaps most effective because it relies on blind obedience and discourages thinking.

      Nice try. Western science of course was born out of Christian religion - science being a way to understand more about the creation's of God and hence to get nearer to the creator. Even bastions of Christian-bashing like Galileo were sponsored by the church to do their research.

      The [Catholic] Church founded many of the first Universities - Constantinople (Theodosius II, 5th Century; formalised in 9th Century), Salerno (Saint Alfano I, or more probably Holy Roman Emperor Frederick I building on the existing school started by Alfano), Bologna (on the behest of Frederick I), Paris (bull of Innocent III, though it's more of an organic conflagration of scholars but it was under ecclesiastical jurisdiction and professors and students were governed only by Church law and not civil at least for a large part of the beginnings), ... . Sujects taught were medicine (usually the starting point it seems) arithmetic, geometry, philosophy, astronomy, mathematics, law [yes, including canon law], theology, logic, rhetoric and apparently grammar [though I don't know this was a subject for such high learning in itself], etc..

      it is my contention that a Christian cannot appreciate the true gravity of murder in the way an atheist can. Christians have convinced themselves in the existence of an afterlife. For them killing a human is merely removing them from this world (the less important world). An atheist on the other hand realises that killing a human being is the snuffing out of an individual and unique consciousness for all time.

      Err, I think you got that confused. How under an atheist world view how does a consciousness (which is usually under such a view a complex anomaly of brain chemistry) live for "all time"? Indeed as an atheist, not bound to an absolute morality, what is the problem with "snuffing out" anything, there is no wrong or right after all? On the contrary Christians have a sense of the infinite and that lifetime events have eternal consequences and that actions are very certainly right or wrong (even if "rightness" is hard to establish). If you're an atheist surely you're just stopping a chemical reaction quicker; if you're a Christian you're having eternal effects on heaven and hell and a person's position [and yours] in one or the other.

    5. Re:why is it "wrong" to kill someone by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      Just because you're a christian doesn't mean you aren't going to Hell. The majority position is that one has to be in a state of grace. Furthermore, ignorance is something of an excuse. A christian who has been catechized and still sins is generally considered to be judged more harshly than a non christian ignorant of God's rules. This is also why Jews do not condemn gentiles for eating pork and muslims do not condemn christians for not doing muslim ablutions.

      Better, in the end, not to kill either.

    6. Re:why is it "wrong" to kill someone by Capsaicin · · Score: 1

      [I]t is my contention that a Christian cannot appreciate the true gravity of murder in the way an atheist can.

      That's very wrong if that Christian believes that there is a place/situation/state called Hell.

      I doubt that should raise too much concern on the part of the religionist. It doesn't fall to us after all to second guess God's judgment, indeed in ridding the world from vile sinners we might even think of ourselves as doing God's work (which attitude would not be unprecedented). The ethical atheist lacks any similar method of eluding responsibility. So again, I think, that despite any misgivings a particular Christian may have in dispatching a sinner to Hell, their understanding of the gravity of murder cannot approach that of an atheist who has thought through the implications of prematurely ending a human consciousness.

      Whereas many atheists believe once you die, that's it - nonexistence.

      Arguably being outside the presence of God would be indistinguishable from nonexistence.

      Therefore, if it is a choice between letting a christian live vs a nonchristian live, logic has it that the christian is expendable. Lots of christians can't accept it when I tell them stuff like if it were a choice between killing a robber/soldier or letting the robber/soldier kill your child, logic has it you should not kill the robber/soldier (unless perhaps in the case where you know he is a Christian? ;) ).

      Well I admire the logical consistency of your position. ;)

      A Christian is someone who follows Jesus. When Jesus came, he said christians are to love one another, turn the other cheek etc. He most certainly didn't say go around killing people. So if christians go around killing (even Christians), they're not doing a good job of following Jesus. It might even be they're not actually genuine followers.

      Absolutely. But this is kind of my point. For a Christian the non-killing comes from uncritically following Jesus, or from uncritically obeying I-am's injunction "Thou shalt not kill." For an atheist such as myself conforming with Jesus' teaching comes from ethical and historical reflection and an understanding that (most of) the system of morality he (and similar teachers such as Gandhi, the Dalai Lama, etc) taught is the only proven system to lead to a just, free and humane society.

      Eternity is a very long time to be "not good enough". Maybe some people are good enough to enjoy Eternity without help from God. I don't think I am.

      I don't disagree that it would be nice if there were a human-loving God(dess) who could grant us eternal joy. Indeed, I hope you find your paradise.

      --
      Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
    7. Re:why is it "wrong" to kill someone by Capsaicin · · Score: 1

      Disbelieving in God's existence does not mandate that an atheist must disbelieve in an afterlife.

      Of course there is no logical inconsistency in believing in an after life without believing in any gods. As a matter of fact though an overwhelmingly large majority of atheists don't believe in an afterlife. This is not a terribly substantive criticism. You might also have observed that atheists are not bound to reach this moral conclusion, but then my post was about what an atheist "can" and a christian "cannot appreciate" (which words appear in a sentence preceding the one you chose to decontextualise).

      Your contention re Christian vs Atheist appreciation of the gravity of murder needs re-examination.

      Where I write 'atheist' read 'an atheist who doesn't belive in an afterlife'. Where I write 'christian' read 'a christian who does believe in an afterlife.' Fixed.

      --
      Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
    8. Re:why is it "wrong" to kill someone by Capsaicin · · Score: 1

      Why not fear of the expected punishment?

      Flip side of the coin really. In any case the orthodox theological view is that the punishment is not getting the reward (ie hell means being outside the presence of God).

      --
      Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
    9. Re:why is it "wrong" to kill someone by Capsaicin · · Score: 1

      Nice try. Western science of course was born out of Christian religion - science being a way to understand more about the creation's of God and hence to get nearer to the creator. ... The [Catholic] Church founded many of the first Universities ...

      You'll get no disagreement from me on these points. I'm a avid proponent of the thesis that the Church played a major, if not the the major role, in forging European Civilisation. Not only did it foster the sciences, but more generally, nowhere has History thrown up a culture which more highly regards both intellectual honesty and an individual's right of conscience, as those emerging from Christian societies. It need hardly be added that the Church was not for ever and always the guardian of intellectual freedom, but the point is that something about Christian culture appears to have fostered it.

      Nietzche (not my favourite philospher) again, observed that the truth-seeking encouraged by Christianity ends up eating Christianity itself. In the end we are led to the realisation that the existence of God, hitherto accepted uncritically, can no longer be honestly sustained, simply because it is a baseless claim. Similarly, Science, which you nicely characterise as an attempt "to get nearer to the creator," reveals that positing a humanoid 'creator' is neither necessary nor pursuasive. Once we got close enough, the creator disappeared from view.

      And once Western thought approaches this level of maturity, we must either surrender our belief, or at least our certitude, in the existence of gods, or we must surrender our adherence to the accepted truth-testing techniques of Western thought. At this stage Christianity tends instead to become a force for (self-)deception, of which the Big Lie of Creationism is but one extreme example. I write 'tends' because Christianity is clearly too diverse a set of beliefs (where some even advocate the adoption of a "non-deistic theology") to be tarred with any single brush.

      Err, I think you got that confused. How under an atheist world view how does a consciousness (which is usually under such a view a complex anomaly of brain chemistry) live for "all time"?

      The confusion, I assure you, is all your own. I did not write, nor is it a necessary implication of anything that I did write, that an individual consciousness "lives" for all time. On the contrary, we have no basis for believing such a claim. As you point out, your misapplication of the word 'anomaly' notwithstanding, consciousness is associated with a functioning brain (which is not to equate brain function with consciousness), and indeed it has never been observed in the absence of a functioning brain.

      Instead these marvellous, unique and irreplaceable consciousnesses that we all are, live for a cruelly short time, after which they are extinguished for all time. A full realisation of the gravity of this fact, a fortiori the gravity of prematurely ending such a consciousness, is not achievable in the absence of a rigorous intellectual honesty (which requires inter alia an atheistic stance). That is my contention!

      Indeed as an atheist, not bound to an absolute morality, what is the problem with "snuffing out" anything, there is no wrong or right after all?

      There is no need to ruin a perfectly good discussion with such question-begging nonesense. Please! The post you are responding to already pointed to the problem of ethical grounding in the absence of God and gave a famous example of non-deistic grounding.

      If you maintain that God can form the only ground for morality then yes, since the claim that God exists is baseless, there can be no wrong nor right. This is the problem posed by the "Death of God" the madman in the marketplace was so furiously proclaiming. The question we must now address becomes this, given that a God grounded conception of morality is no longer sustainable how do we ground mora

      --
      Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
  52. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by darthdavid · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    I think you're confusing nuns with judges...

  53. HAHAHA! I foiled them! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yes! Screw you government! I haven't yet filed a tax return for last year, and there's nothing you can do about it, because we'll all be dead.

    *evil cackle* I win again! Oh, wait ...

  54. ok, so civilization is coming to an end... by Tumbleweed · · Score: 1

    ...along with electricity and thus, computer culture.

    So...how do I go about overclocking a shotgun?

    Perhaps time to scale up from my desktop trebuchet to a real one?

    To be honest, I was really hoping for a *zombie* type apocalypse, but oh well.

  55. Possible Explanation for 1908 Tunguska Blast by learningtree · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This could well be a possible explanation for the 1908 Tunguska blast in Siberia.
    The event still remains an unsolved mystery, despite many theories put forward to explain it.

    One of the possible explanations is that it was caused by high concentrations of methane accumulated from the crust, followed by explosive combustion.

    1. Re:Possible Explanation for 1908 Tunguska Blast by plasmacutter · · Score: 1

      The general consensus is a low density meteorite detonated at a low altitude.

      Mineral samples of extra terrestrial origin (fragments of the space rock) have been gathered there.

      --
      VLC FOR MAC IS DYING! IF YOU DEVELOP, PLEASE SAVE IT!!
    2. Re:Possible Explanation for 1908 Tunguska Blast by Jorophose · · Score: 1

      Huh. I thought that was Tesla's work?

    3. Re:Possible Explanation for 1908 Tunguska Blast by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      This could well be a possible explanation for the 1908 Tunguska blast in Siberia.

      The energy yield from the Tunguska event was in the order of 10 megatonnes of TNT (from your cited source ; good enough for an order of magnitude estimate).

      One molecule of TNT has 6 carbons plus various other bits that yield energy in detonation (... order of magnitude...) so to get a ball-park figure lets call that 10 megatonnes of TNT 100 megatonnes of methane.

      In terms of mass, a really good clathrate at the bottom of the ocean (or plugging an oil well pipeline) can have about 20% by mass of methane in it (NOTE : mass, not volume) so, we need around 500 megatonnes of clathrate.

      500 * 10^6 * 10^3 kg = 5 * 10^11 kg of clathrate.
      Specific gravity of clathrates ~0.9 (wikipedia)
      So we need 550,000,000 cubic metres of clathrate.
      As a hemisphere, that's 600-odd metres in radius.

      Hmmm, actually, that's not wildly off from the dimensions of the lake near "Tunguska Ground Zero". Which is not what I was intending to demonstrate. Shot myself in the foot there.

      But if this was an event related to the formation of that lake ... why aren't there more such events all over Russia. What caused this particular bit of Tundra to go boom?

      I don't buy it. The mixing needed to get into the explosive limits doesn't work for me ; the height to which the mix must have ascended before the detonation doesn't work ; why detonate when it's got to so-high when it could have detonated as well at ground level, had a limited local effect, and then have a burning pillar of fire for a few hours or days (no evidence of such at "Tunguska Ground Zero") ? But that's my geologist's gut feeling, not a solid refutation. I'd like to see your paper on the subject.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    4. Re:Possible Explanation for 1908 Tunguska Blast by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      Last year Italian scientists found what they thought was a crater.

      Falcon

    5. Re:Possible Explanation for 1908 Tunguska Blast by falconwolf · · Score: 1

      Huh. I thought that was Tesla's work?

      He did like making ball lightening and earthquakes.

      Falcon

  56. What's next... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It seems every day something else is going to kill us all.

  57. Ice age.. by Noctris · · Score: 1

    Well, several theories suggest heating of the earth will stop the gulfstream and push earth in a new ice age.. better start downloading some extra porn for those cold long nights...

    1. Re:Ice age.. by freddy_dreddy · · Score: 1

      way ahead of you

      --
      "Violence is the last refuge of the competent, and, generally, the first refuge of the incompetent" - Thing_1
    2. Re:Ice age.. by Peeteriz · · Score: 1

      Gulfstream stopping wouldn't do anything for Earth's ice age. It would have a local effect, fucking up the climate of western Europe - Spain, France, England, Sweden, etc, and causing pretty ugly winters there. While these are culturally important areas, and I live nearby as well, still, it's not a global thing.

    3. Re:Ice age.. by pandrijeczko · · Score: 1

      You've not convinced me.

      I'm gonna download more porn just to be safe.

      --
      Gentoo Linux - another day, another USE flag.
  58. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Bent+Mind · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Without the framework of religion, why is it "wrong" to kill someone?

    Off hand, I'd say a small scale version of MAD. If it is not wrong for me to kill someone, then it is not wrong for someone to kill me. I feel that it is wrong for people to kill me. Therefore, it is in my self-interest not to kill others.

    --
    Request a Linux Shockwave player here: http://www.macromedia.com/support/email/wishform/
  59. Unprecedented? by RudeIota · · Score: 4, Interesting

    And the rate at which change is happening is unprecedented.

    I'm not really arguing with you, but 'unprecedented' is relative what slice of time you look at and who's graph you pay attention to.

    If you look at temperature records provided by proxy sources (ice cores, tree rings etc...) over hundreds of thousands of years - on many of the graphs you'll find - it's pretty clear that the last millennium has been nothing unusual.

    If you look short term though, (past few hundred years) it looks pretty damning.

    --
    Fact: Everything I say is fiction.
    1. Re:Unprecedented? by Archtech · · Score: 1, Insightful

      And the rate at which change is happening is unprecedented.

      I'm not really arguing with you, but 'unprecedented' is relative what slice of time you look at and who's graph you pay attention to.

      If you look at temperature records provided by proxy sources (ice cores, tree rings etc...) over hundreds of thousands of years - on many of the graphs you'll find - it's pretty clear that the last millennium has been nothing unusual.

      If you look short term though, (past few hundred years) it looks pretty damning.

      Funnily enough, this choice is similar to what happened in banking in the past 10-20 years. Banks had risk management departments, and the requirements were strengthened by government legislation. But the bosses discovered they could wriggle out of the straitjacket imposed by their risk management computer systems just by lengthening the baseline period used. Thus, if you looked at the past 1-5 years, it would be obvious that risk was excessive; but extend that period to 15 years, and average out the risk over that longer time - and hey presto, acceptable risk! (Until the floor falls out from under you, that is).

      --
      I am sure that there are many other solipsists out there.
    2. Re:Unprecedented? by Ambitwistor · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Well, the only events you see that are comparable in rate to the modern warming are the Dansgaard-Oescher events, associated with a restart of a collapsed thermohaline circulation. The THC is not now restarting, so it does appear something unusual is now going on.

    3. Re:Unprecedented? by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      Funny enough about global temperatures, if you shorten the baseline up to only 10 years, we're actually undergoing a mild bout of global cooling. The last year or two have been especially cool.

    4. Re:Unprecedented? by ardle · · Score: 1

      A lot of ice melted over the last couple of years. That ice was cold ;-)
      It was once stacked in a big crystal, now it's travelling everywhere.
      Last couple of Summers in northern Europe have been cool, previous couple of years being gradually warmer.
      If northern Europe were getting cooler because of a general cooling trend, I wouldn't expect the Polar ice cap to be melting at an increasing rate.
      Alternatively, the coolness could due to an increase in humidity of air being dragged from the North Pole towards the equator (polar winds are being forced backwards - north-east, towards Europe - by the Gulf Stream).

    5. Re:Unprecedented? by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      Sorry, the average temps since 1998 are slightly lower. Check HADCRUT.

    6. Re:Unprecedented? by ardle · · Score: 1

      Just because energy is increasing in the atmosphere, that doesn't mean that temperatures have to increase: that energy can be transferred as "latent heat" and used to cause phase change in a substance like ice.

    7. Re:Unprecedented? by Toadavidr · · Score: 1

      Dear Rudelota: Please look very carefully at the graph in the "Global Temperature Trends..." link. thanks, David Reinertson

    8. Re:Unprecedented? by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      Actually, one of the big mysteries currently confronting climate scientists that are not in the tank for AGW is where is the missing heat. There's supposed to be a lot more heat out in the ocean according to all the models and it's simply not there when people actually go out and measure it.

    9. Re:Unprecedented? by ardle · · Score: 1

      Well I didn't go out and measure it: the sea is damn cold where I am.
      I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here: that current climate models are wrong or incomplete? That's models for you. A temperature scale is a very simplistic model based around the idea that the amount of heat energy you put into something equals the amount of heat energy you can get out if you reverse the temperature gradient, which isn't how things work in real life. Suggesting that "climate change" is about temperature is a bit like saying that the current financial crisis is about money ;-)

  60. What a surprise by abigsmurf · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Assuming they are correct and this is because of 'permafrost' melting, is 100x background that significant? The article doesn't mention figures so I had to look around.

    Methane currently makes up 0.00017% of the atmosphere. That means these very localised 100x concentrations have 0.017% methane. This would mean if this concentration was worldwide, it would be approx 10x worse than the CO2 in the atmosphere. EVERYBODY PANIC.

    However these are concentrations close to the surface over a very localised area. Permafrost makes up 25% of the earths surface, so that means on average this methane will now be of concentration to be 2.5x worse than the CO2. Still pretty bad.

    However there are other factors, not mentioned. It's safe to assume 100x was the worst they found, not the typical (afterall makes for the best headlines), what was the average reading? How far above the surface was the reading taken? How does the concentration diffuse as you take readings higher up?

    The article also neglects to mention that Methane breaks down after about 12 years (compared to 50-100 for Co2) and there's plenty of bacteria that break it down. Whilst this may cause levels to spike, once the vents in the exposed area are spent, it won't take long for levels to stabalise again.

    1. Re:What a surprise by hey! · · Score: 2, Insightful

      To answer your question -- no, not in itself.

      However, that's not the question. The question is, has there been any change in the mechanisms releasing methane. If so, we don't know whether we've seen the full impact of the change that has taken place, or whether the change is progressing.

      It's not a cause for panic, it's something to look into. Even if this change has no global implications, the Arctic is changing in ways that make it very worth keeping an eye on.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  61. To put it in laymen's terms.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Imagine a cow the size of the Moon letting one rip. That's what happens when the oceans warm up.

  62. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by radio4fan · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    RANDOM ATHIEST: Damn you, Christian! We hate you! We claim to be tolerant of all religions. But we really hate your's! That's because we athiests are hypocritical like that! Die, Christian!

    Man, these athiests sound crazy!

    Do you think there's a chance that atheists could turn into these monstrous athiests?

  63. Re:Speculation by init100 · · Score: 1

    There is this thing called the core and it's made of molten lava

    Technically, lava is magma that has erupted onto the surface. The mantle is made of magma, which is molten rock. The outer core is liquid and mostly made of iron. The inner core is solid (because of the enormous pressure) and mostly made of iron.

  64. Ok, let me see if I have got this right... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    1. The economy is going down the drain...
    2. The ecosystem is going down the drain...
    3. Sarah Palin is nominated for VP...

    Are we starting to see a pattern here?

  65. Russian underwater flag planting? by stoofa · · Score: 1

    Anything to do with this?

    1st diver: plant the flag over here, comrade.

    *Plop... whoosh - bubble - bubble - bubble*

    2nd diver: oops.

    1st diver: Okay, try over here.

    *Plop... whoosh - bubble - bubble - bubble*

  66. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Ragzouken · · Score: 1

    Great, what do you call yourselves? THE ARISTOCRATS!

  67. CO2 * 20? by adavies42 · · Score: 1

    C 02 times 20? That's--gasp--C20 040!

    --
    Media that can be recorded and distributed can be recorded and distributed.
    -kfg
    1. Re:CO2 * 20? by laejoh · · Score: 0

      C20 040!?

      You sank my battheship!

  68. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I know! If people would just stop fucking idiots, the world would be a better place. At least in the long term. In the short term there would be almost no one to fuck.

  69. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    > Scary, isn't it?

    The fact that idiots like you exist is *extremely* scary.

  70. MOD PARENT DOWN by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    See grandparent: there was no seismic activity in the area. That's why there's an article about it, dunderhead.

    Oh and the "record cold" you reported? That was a record for the past eight years. The trends are up, and ignoring the problem isn't helping.

  71. Re:Ob. Monty Python / Soviet Russia by AliasMarlowe · · Score: 0

    In post-Soviet Russian army, your General Direktion farts at you!

    --
    Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. - Voltaire
  72. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Young boys need love too...

  73. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "The death penalty only seems to be part of the legal code of countries with a religious majority as well."

    erm, China? Nazi Germany?

    I'd say it can be seen as slightly distracting to solely look at death penalty - it should really also include countries that have a) employed very long prison sentences in b) conditions that are needlessly extremely squalid and life-threatening. In that case you might include the Soviet Union as well.

    Of course, historically it's a struggle to find any, because it's a struggle to find atheistic societies at all.

    "Then again, I do wonder why I am responding to an AC...?"

    If you do things with no clue why, perhaps introspection is a good course. Or maybe you're just an elitist poseur who likes to emphasise that you only associate with the right sorts of people.

  74. Re:Speculation by TheLink · · Score: 1

    Question - why are the depths of the ocean very cold?

    If:
    1) The crust is warmer
    2) The atmosphere is warmer.

    Why should it stay cold?

    I can understand that stuff can get really cold in the desert at night from radiative losses to space.

    But at the bottom of the ocean?

    --
  75. Any chance of some good news today ? by freddy_dreddy · · Score: 1

    Congres rambles on the 700 billion thing, Banks are crashing in Europe, Bosenova on /. , now this.

    Here's a kitten

    --
    "Violence is the last refuge of the competent, and, generally, the first refuge of the incompetent" - Thing_1
    1. Re:Any chance of some good news today ? by denzacar · · Score: 1

      Even that kitten looks threatening today.

      --
      Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
    2. Re:Any chance of some good news today ? by trongey · · Score: 1

      I think you were looking for this.

      --
      You never really know how close to the edge you can go until you fall off.
  76. Storegga by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Anybody checked the article on Storegga Slides in Wikipedia? Or read "The Swarm" recently? :)

  77. Re:Speculation by S-100 · · Score: 1

    The point is, it's inaccurate to say it can't happen because the deep ocean is cold. There could well be some other geological effect happening down there which is causing either a localized thermal event or some sort of widespread discharge of previously buried material.

  78. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Asic+Eng · · Score: 1
    erm, China? Nazi Germany?

    Nazi Germany had a Christian majority. Apart from that I agree: you don't need to have a religious population in order to have the death penalty.

  79. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by MadKeithV · · Score: 1

    SILENCE! I kill you.

  80. How little he knows by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    There's a warm and a cool interglacial. And a glacial.

    We are still in the interglacial period.

    And given that the end of the last glacial period is about the same as the average interglacial period, we are NOT (repeat NOT) just out of a glacial.

    fuckwit.

  81. When does it go down, then? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    At the moment, it's all "oh, it's flat, innit, so not warming" but when does it stop being flat and start going down?

    Give us a year. Let's see whether your "prediction" is correct.

    It's been five years so far and no sign of "down".

    1. Re:When does it go down, then? by Troed · · Score: 1
    2. Re:When does it go down, then? by bunratty · · Score: 2, Informative

      What you're seeing on that graph is that 1998 was an unusually warm year. Also, 2008 was unusually cold. But if you look at the overall trend of the thirty years of the graph, you can see temperatures have been rising. For example, look how often the graph was above 0 before 1998, and compare to how often is was above 0 since 1998. It goes from spending about half the time below 0 to spending most of the time above 0. If you want to see the long-term trend, so a linear regression and you'll see it even more clearly.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    3. Re:When does it go down, then? by foobsr · · Score: 1
      --
      TaijiQuan (Huang, 5 loosenings)
    4. Re:When does it go down, then? by Troed · · Score: 1

      PDO warm shift. Feel free to extend the diagram to before 1979 - thus displaying more than just the warm side of a cycle.

    5. Re:When does it go down, then? by Troed · · Score: 1

      Surface temperatures. You know - the stations extremely affected by urbanization. The link I gave is for satellite troposhpere temperatures, less affected by heat zones around cities but still an area where AGW should have a huge effect.

      For more info on why you shouldn't trust surface data: http://surfacestations.org/

    6. Re:When does it go down, then? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The blue line in your graph is observed temperatures and are from a 1996 report, so of course don't show the past 10 years of non-warming. The red line is imaginary warming. Do you count imaginary warming as being real?

  82. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by houghi · · Score: 1

    In 'The Stainless Steel Rat' the reason that is given why atheists are better people is because they know that this is the only life people have and will therefore treasure it as they know it is pretty final if you end it.

    Religious people believe that even if you kill somebody, they have some sort of second chance, so it won't be that bad for that person if you kill him.

    Please do understand that this is from a science fiction writer written in a book that is intended to entertain, not to preach. (e.g. The book also explains why robbing banks is a good thing.) What would the world come to if people (or 'actors') start believing some SF book is "The Word".

    --
    Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
  83. Something already seen somewhere... by sirjohn · · Score: 2, Informative

    For this kind of thing I suggest to read "The Swarm " novel from Frank Schatzing.
    Methane Hydrate instability can be quite dangerous..... :)

  84. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by uncle+slacky · · Score: 1

    No - they'll become Aethists instead:

    http://www.messybeast.com/dragonqueen/aeth.htm

    Rob

    --
    Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it.
  85. Not only religious countries had the death penalty by Viol8 · · Score: 1

    The soviet union for example and that was an atheist state. I'm not sure if russia still has it but china certainly does and thats hardly run by the religious.

    And for the record I'm an atheist and I'm for the death penalty in certain situations too , so don't assume everyone who supports it is a religious nutter.

  86. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  87. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by bcmm · · Score: 1

    [Citation Needed]

    Seriously. Where does it say that?

    --
    # cat /dev/mem | strings | grep -i llama
    Damn, my RAM is full of llamas.
  88. Oh Greenpeace... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    1. Find natural gas leak
    2. Blame humans for global warming
    3. ???
    4. Profit!

  89. Techwriters by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So this is how the world ends. Not with a bang but with a flatulent belch of ancient methane.

    It is not the world's end....
    It is just an natural incident on the sea....

    www.futuretechwriters.com
    mail@futuretechwriters.com

  90. Notch Johnson by RemoWilliams84 · · Score: 1

    Does anyone remember that episode of Notch Johnson, where Notch was a racecar driver and fueled his car with methane gas. It sounded like a fart goin around the track, and smelled like one too. Maybe we should get mythbusters to test that out. Could solve both problems.

    --
    "I don't have to think. I only have to do it. The results are always perfect, but that's old news." - Meat Puppets
  91. Smoking by ypctx · · Score: 4, Funny

    So all the "Smoking can kill you" warnings should now be postfixed with "Instantly".

  92. Professor Westbrook or Miss Malaprop? by alevans4 · · Score: 1

    "The discovery of this system is important as its presence provides evidence that methane, which is a greenhouse gas, has been released in this climactically sensitive region since the last ice age," Professor Westbrook said.

    Talk about gloom and doom....

  93. light it up! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    anybody got a match?

  94. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  95. Re:Speculation by Kharny · · Score: 1

    1. the crust isn't warm, there's still 10+km between the "bottom of the ocean" and magma on average.
    2. it's freaking deep, no sun heating etc.
    3. cold water(non-frozen) is heavier than warm water, so lower is colder.

    --
    Make a man a fire and he will be warm for a day, set a man on fire and he will be warm for the rest of his life
  96. Sink a well... by Stele · · Score: 1

    Someone should sink a well down there and retire.

  97. I've only got one thing to say about Siberian gas by Cro+Magnon · · Score: 2, Funny

    This time, it wasn't me!

    --
    Slow down, cowboy! It has been 4 hours since you last posted. You must wait another few hours.
  98. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Lars+T. · · Score: 1

    Not all religions preach against killing people. The muslims are told very specifically they must either convert non-believers or kill them.

    Yes, of course - they are one of the Judeo-Christian sects after all, and thus use stuff from the Bible/Thora.

    --

    Lars T.

    To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

  99. Re:Speculation by cryptolemur · · Score: 1

    Because water has it's highest density at ~ 4 ÂC (40 ÂF), meaning that any at any other temperature it becomes lighter and raises up making room for colder water and so on and on and on...

  100. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Unless you consider Communism/Maoism and Nazism to be religions. They have (or had) the trappings - look at the symbology, the rituals and the charismatic leaders. They're not far off.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  101. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by catbertscousin · · Score: 1

    Er . . . what's funny about the state having people of differing beliefs torn apart by wild animals?

    --
    No good deed goes unpunished. - Avon, Blake's 7
  102. Floating membrane harvesters by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It should be possible to build huge floating membranes that float below the surface of the water and collect the methane into a central point where it can be pumped into pressurized tanks. The pumping stations would be powered by burning some of the methane.

  103. Re:Speculation by TheLink · · Score: 1

    Oh I had the impression that it got a lot colder than that, but I got around to checking and it looks like it doesn't - only about 2 degrees C.

    --
  104. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Disfnord · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I think you're all confusing obvious trolls with christians.

  105. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Having grown up in an atheist household myself i can say that you're right on the money there. Absolutely bang on, right down to the black robes (wtf, is that some sort of pagan reference or are you having a go at university graduates?)

  106. We must mine now! by russotto · · Score: 1

    Mine the clathrates now! Capturing and burning them is the only way to halt global catastrophe! A few billion dollars to Exxon and Haliburton is a small price to pay to save the world!

  107. Permafrost on the Sea Floor? by sycodon · · Score: 2, Interesting

    "...buried under the sea floor before the last ice age, breaking up as higher water temperatures melt the permafrost that had contained it..."

    What am I missing?

    --
    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    1. Re:Permafrost on the Sea Floor? by rrohbeck · · Score: 1

      I didn't understand that part either - the editor copied and pasted it from TFA.
      There's two totally separate methane stores - in soil, bottled up by permafrost, and in methane clathrate on the seafloor, mostly in sediment, bottled up by pressure and low temperature. I also can't see how the ocean's ice cover has anything to do with the clathrate store except indirectly via albedo and temperature, so mentioning permafrost here doesn't make sense even if it refers to ice cover.

    2. Re:Permafrost on the Sea Floor? by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      "...buried under the sea floor before the last ice age, breaking up as higher water temperatures melt the permafrost that had contained it..."

      What am I missing?

      your scepticism is understandable, but submarine permafrost is well-known.
      Sea water has ice in it ; this lowers it's freezing point to below zero (centigrade) ; so if you have fresh-water-flooded, fine-grained sea bottom materials, you can freeze the fresh water in the sediment under liquid salty water.
      (I specify "fine grained" sea bottom materials to slow diffusion of salt into the pore water.)

      That's mechanism #1.

      Mechanism #2 : Winter comes ; sea freezes at about -3C ; seabed starts to freeze onto the bottom of the sea ice ; winter continues ; ice is -10C; winter continues ; ice is -20C; winter continues ; ice is -30C; winter continues ; seabed ice is now metres thick. Spring comes ; surface sea ice melts in the sun ; top couple of cm of ground ice melts under the sea water, once that gets above 0C ; remaining ice slowly melts.
      Repeat a hundred times ; you've got a significant build up of ice.
      Corollary - why is the sea bottom muck fresh-water-wet instead of salt-water-wet? Because when it was deposited, sea level was 50m below present levels, so that what is now seabed was 50m above sea level (and maybe 10s of km from the coast).

      Scepticism abated? Or, at least, addressed?

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    3. Re:Permafrost on the Sea Floor? by sycodon · · Score: 1

      "Scepticism abated? Or, at least, addressed?"

      Some...but...

      It is well known that many sea mammals (walrus, seals, etc.) scour the sea floor for various critters that live in the muck.

      Perhaps the geography is different there...I don't know.

      Since I didn't RTA, I don't know the depth there were talking either. I expect that the temperature at extreme depths is constant.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    4. Re:Permafrost on the Sea Floor? by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      "Scepticism abated? Or, at least, addressed?"

      Some...but...
      It is well known that many sea mammals (walrus, seals, etc.) scour the sea floor for various critters that live in the muck.
      Perhaps the geography is different there...I don't know.
      Since I didn't RTA, I don't know the depth there were talking either.

      I don't quite see the relevance, but ... At least one species of seal - IIRC, one of the fur seals, routinely hits in excess of a kilometer. Walruses, I don't know. My memory is popping up 60 to 100m, but with a warning bell that it's not a multiple-source datum.

      I expect that the temperature at extreme depths is constant.

      Certainly at great depths - multiple kilometres - temperatures are nearly uniform, and only very slowly changing. A few centigrade above zero, only. But with respect to submarine permafrost the scenarios I was talking of were in a few tens of metres. Legally and technically the continental shelves extend to 100 or 150m water depth (the technical limits are not wildly at variance with the simplicities assumed by lawyers).

      Once you've got more than a few tens of metres of water depth, the insulating effect of sea ice, and the heat-moving capability of the water between the base of the sea ice and the sea bed both act in concert so that it becomes really hard to freeze the sea bed. Engineering can do it - freezing seabed muck to make a stable area for building/ piling/ excavating is in the standard portfolio of engineering techniques. But nature makes neither leaps, nor "coffer dams".

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  108. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You ask that question, while claiming to be related to Catbert? What?

  109. Re:Speculation by nuttycom · · Score: 1

    The mantle isn't actually molten; it's plastic and deformable but not liquid. Magma (the actual melt) forms in chambers in the crust at points where extra heat from the mantle rises to a level where the confining pressures lower enough to allow the phase transition.

  110. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You've got to give him high marks for trolling though - love the deliberately bad spelling and greengrocers' apostrophes!

  111. all i have to say is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    game over man

  112. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What would the world come to if people (or 'actors') start believing some SF book is "The Word".

    I see what you did there...

  113. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by religious+freak · · Score: 1

    That's the contemporary meaning, but when Mohamed conquered Mecca he demanded only that the pagan idols be destroyed and spared the lives of everyone in Mecca. There are also other examples of his policies of not killing innocents, regardless of religion.

    Constantine loved Christianity because it was so organized and used it to conquer and kill. My theory is that Islam is in a similar "teenage years" type of angsty mood. But yeah, in the mean time we need to get to them before they can get to us.

    --
    If you can read this... 01110101 01110010 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100111 01100101 01100101 01101011
  114. replacement for oil by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    instead of implementing paranoid gloom and doom, why not consider this good news? Collect it and use it as some amount of replacement for oil coming out of the towel-headed middle east. Its not a perfect fuel source but its cleaner than oil and happens to be located in larger quantities in a much more stable region of the world. Siberia, as far as I am aware, doesn't go around killing people for showing their ankles. Seems like the perfect opportunity to stop empowering the religious nuts/fascist and let them die of poverty.

  115. Don't anyone panic by Bobb+Sledd · · Score: 1

    Don't anyone panic, it's just my mother-in-law. She's scuba diving in that region.

    --
    "They said I probly shouldn't fly with just one eye," "I am Bender. Please insert girder."
  116. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Fujisawa+Sensei · · Score: 1

    Okay, this was stupid, but it does touch on a point I've wondered about: religion seems to be the foundation of much of our societal moral code. Without the framework of religion, why is it "wrong" to kill someone?

    Within the framework of religion its okay to kill someone, you just label them hethans who are going to burn anyway.

    Outside of the framework of religion, they're people.

    --
    If someone is passing you on the right, you are an asshole for driving in the wrong lane.
  117. Sea level rise costs money by bunratty · · Score: 1

    It may well be normal for the ice on Greenland to melt. The problem is that if it melts, sea level will rise 20 feet. Normal or not, that's going to be devastating to people who live near the ocean. The problem with global warming is not that it's not "normal." The problem is that we're going to have to spend many billions of dollars dealing with the repercussions of global warming.

    --
    What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    1. Re:Sea level rise costs money by Troed · · Score: 1

      Yes, and if there's nothing we can do about it (likely) then ... what's your point?

      (Btw, the ice on Greenland is nowhere NEAR melting at a rate causing a raise of 20 feet. Science before alarmism please)

      Lomborg details nicely how much good we can do with money with regards to possible GW effects instead of spending it on useless CO2-reducing economic disaster-schemes.

    2. Re:Sea level rise costs money by bunratty · · Score: 1

      Sure, there's something we can do about it. For one thing, we can cut carbon dioxide emissions.

      I don't understand about your rate comment. What does the rate that ice is melting have to do with how much ice will melt? If you start walking, however slowly, you will eventually walk 1000 miles. The rate does not determine how far you will go. Likewise, if the ice continues to melt, it will all be melted at some point.

      I don't understand your comment about CO2-reducing economic disaster schemes. If we keep using fossil fuels at a quicker pace until supply cannot keep up with demand, that will cause an economic disaster because people won't be able to buy gasoline for their cars or warm their homes with natural gas. It would be better to slowly reduce the use of fossil fuels so that supply can keep up with demand. That will also have the beneficial effect of helping to stabilize the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    3. Re:Sea level rise costs money by Troed · · Score: 1

      Sure, there's something we can do about it. For one thing, we can cut carbon dioxide emissions.

      We can also pray! The difference is that praying is cheaper, and will have the same (that is, zero) effect.

      The rest of your post is hard to understand, but it seems you might want to read up on current science with regards to climate change. You're quite off the mark.

      (The "market" - that is us consumers - are already voting with our wallets and each new day technological advancements are made that will lessen the impact of there being less oil pumped out of the ground)

    4. Re:Sea level rise costs money by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      (Btw, the ice on Greenland is nowhere NEAR melting at a rate causing a raise of 20 feet. Science before alarmism please)

      As another poster pointed out, you are confusing rate and amount. If the warming over Greenland becomes large enough to switch the ice sheet into negative mass balance, then it will eventually melt if that forcing is maintained, even if it does so slowly. The open question is whether and when we're going to pass that threshold.

      Lomborg details nicely how much good we can do with money with regards to possible GW effects instead of spending it on useless CO2-reducing economic disaster-schemes.

      Lomborg's own Copenhagen Consensus found that the optimal climate policy is to include CO2 reducing schemes, as long as it's done in concert with adaptation measures and technology investment. Their recommended carbon tax (or tax equivalent) wasn't even that far from mainstream estimates like Nordhaus's. They also admit that they ignored some of the low-probability but high-impact risks like we're discussing, which traditionally strengthen the economic value of CO2 mitigation policies. Go read their challenge paper and the accompanying perspective papers.

    5. Re:Sea level rise costs money by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "Science before alarmism please...[snip]...spending it on useless CO2-reducing economic disaster-schemes"

      Me thinks you are projecting your own (economic) alarmisim onto others. Also how is it that renewables are never counted as a adaption by Lomborg? Some of Loborg's adaption strategy is common sense but combined with his bad math and demands for inaction on the root cause his view is quite rightly considered as nonsense by most.

      Simarly his "cost of CO2 reduction" estimates count the entire cost of replacing all existing power plants. It seems to have escaped Lomborg's attention but "replacing all existing power plants" has to be done anyway over the next 40yrs, or are you and Lomborg now suggesting that coal fired plants are somehow free of any costs and will last forever?

      Something no economic alarmists seems capable of grasping is that the biggest potential loser in CO2 reduction is not the economy it's the coal industry, I'm sure Lomborg knows their lobbyists much more intimately than I do and they have made him fully aware of these economic "facts".

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  118. So Russia IS close enough to Alaska ... by engwar · · Score: 1

    So Russia IS close enough to Alaska that they can smell Governor Palin! //ducks

  119. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by rossz · · Score: 1

    The Qur'an:

    Sura (2:191-193) - "And slay them wherever ye find them, and drive them out of the places whence they drove you out, for persecution [of Muslims] is worse than slaughter [of non-believers]...and fight them until persecution is no more, and religion is for Allah."

    Sura (2:244) - "Then fight in the cause of Allah, and know that Allah Heareth and knoweth all things."

    Sura (2:216) - "Fighting is prescribed for you, and ye dislike it. But it is possible that ye dislike a thing which is good for you, and that ye love a thing which is bad for you. But Allah knoweth, and ye know not."

    Sura (3:56) - "As to those who reject faith, I will punish them with terrible agony in this world and in the Hereafter, nor will they have anyone to help."

    Sura (3:151) - "Soon shall We cast terror into the hearts of the Unbelievers, for that they joined companions with Allah, for which He had sent no authority".

    Sura (4:74) - "Let those fight in the way of Allah who sell the life of this world for the other. Whoso fighteth in the way of Allah, be he slain or be he victorious, on him We shall bestow a vast reward."

    Sura (4:76) - "Those who believe fight in the cause of Allah..."

    Sura (4:89) - "They but wish that ye should reject Faith, as they do, and thus be on the same footing (as they): But take not friends from their ranks until they flee in the way of Allah (From what is forbidden). But if they turn renegades, seize them and slay them wherever ye find them; and (in any case) take no friends or helpers from their ranks."

    Sura (4:95) - "Not equal are those believers who sit (at home) and receive no hurt, and those who strive and fight in the cause of Allah with their goods and their persons. Allah hath granted a grade higher to those who strive and fight with their goods and persons than to those who sit (at home). Unto all (in Faith) Hath Allah promised good: But those who strive and fight Hath He distinguished above those who sit (at home) by a special reward,-" This passage not only criticizes "peaceful"

    Sura (4:104) - "And be not weak hearted in pursuit of the enemy; if you suffer pain, then surely they (too) suffer pain as you suffer pain..."

    Sura (5:33) - "The punishment of those who wage war against Allah and His messenger and strive to make mischief in the land is only this, that they should be murdered or crucified or their hands and their feet should be cut off on opposite sides or they should be imprisoned; this shall be as a disgrace for them in this world, and in the hereafter they shall have a grievous chastisement"

    Sura (8:12) - "I will cast terror into the hearts of those who disbelieve. Therefore strike off their heads and strike off every fingertip of them"

    Sura (8:15) - "O ye who believe! When ye meet those who disbelieve in battle, turn not your backs to them. (16)Whoso on that day turneth his back to them, unless maneuvering for battle or intent to join a company, he truly hath incurred wrath from Allah, and his habitation will be hell, a hapless journey's end."

    Sura (8:39) - "And fight with them until there is no more persecution and religion should be only for Allah"

    Sura (8:57) - "If thou comest on them in the war, deal with them so as to strike fear in those who are behind them, that haply they may remember."

    Sura (8:59-60) - "And let not those who disbelieve suppose that they can outstrip (Allah's Purpose). Lo! they cannot escape. Make ready for them all thou canst of (armed) force and of horses tethered, that thereby ye may dismay the enemy of Allah and your enemy."

    Sura (9:5) - "So when the sacred months have passed away, then slay the idolaters wherever you find them, and take them captives and besiege them and lie in wait for them in every ambush, then if they repent and keep up prayer and pay the poor-rate, leave their way free to them."

    Sura (9:14) - "Fight them, Allah will punish them by your hands and bring them to disgrace..."

    Sura (9:20) - "Those who believe, and have left their ho

    --
    -- Will program for bandwidth
  120. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by dbrutus · · Score: 1

    The only problem with that construction is that the subset of the strong can always calve off and prey on the weak, excluding them from their society. Universal ideas like we're all children of God militate against that sort of thing, though obviously not perfectly.

  121. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wow. I bet the atheist mom does anal (= SEXY).

  122. Re:I've only got one thing to say about Siberian g by second+class+skygod · · Score: 1

    Maybe. But then there's the established scientific principle:

    He who denied it supplied it.

  123. Mods: come on by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

    How does this get +5 Insightful for saying nothing but "Real science agrees with me. I won't point you to any of it, but trust me, I'm right. P.S. AGW is a religion." How about some actual facts here? The only "facts" Troed has come up with in this thread are culled from skeptic web sites (which Troed doesn't even bother to cite), and are easily refuted by citations to the Real Science (TM) literature.

    How about some standards here?

  124. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I guess you could point to certain eastern religions like the Jains as having functioned, but they generally get their asses handed to them throughout history.

    Based on your perspective, having your ass handed to you could be an acceptable event. You might even feel worse for the ass-hander (the dude shit-kicking you) than you do for yourself, since he's gotta be pretty messed up to have gotten to the point where he feels it's necessary to do the aforementioned ass-handing.

    Funny thing is that Islam has an even stronger moral code against killing innocents than Christianity, yet they are the ones which have the least problem with targeting purely civilian populations.

    It all depends on how you define "innocent". "Infidel" doesn't really have the connotation of "innocent", does it? To take this to Christianity, "Baby Killer" doesn't really sound too innocent either. Same for "Christ-killer", "Godless Sodomite", $religiously_motivated_slander_du_jour or any other term that propagates the whole "Us vs. Them" mentality.

  125. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by thesupraman · · Score: 1

    Funny thing is that Islam has an even stronger moral code against killing innocents than Christianity, yet they are the ones which have the least problem with targeting purely civilian populations.

    You havent heard of the Dresden and Tokyo fire bombings, or Hiroshima and Nagasaki, have you....

  126. Re:Speculation by Walkingshark · · Score: 1

    You're so far off, you're not even wrong.

    --
    The world you experience is only a close approximation of reality.
  127. Re: achieve ignition in open air by An+anonymous+Frank · · Score: 1

    I saw a special recently where they went to where pockets of methane were formed below the (thinning) ice surface of a large body of water; they broke the top of the ice in several places with a shovel and were able to light up each one of them with a regular wooden match; the pockets would burn up(ward), looking like someone had hid a hand-held torch in the whole(s) with the flame reaching no higher than a few feet, for several seconds each at least.

  128. Re:Speculation by Walkingshark · · Score: 1

    No, anything big enough to effect the kind of area we're talking about would have shown a lot of other effects too, like tsunamis and distinctive changes to the chemistry of the ocean as released lava interacts with ocean water. This is pretty clearly happening because of the increase in ocean water temperature, which has nothing to do with point source deep ocean geothermal effects. You're welcome to keep looking like an idiot and post again though.

    --
    The world you experience is only a close approximation of reality.
  129. Could this methane be used as a source of energy? by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    There are some research projects and operations in the use of biogas as an energy source. Now with all of the methane under the permafrost in Siberia, if an efficient method to capture it can be devised, Russia could become the Saudi Arabia of methane.

    Falcon

  130. farming in the third world by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    For us middle-class first worlders a tick up or down isn't a big deal but getting out of grinding subsistence agriculture and moving up the ladder to a merely crappy factory job means the difference between losing one sibling or three in the 3rd world.

    What to keep more of the money you work to earn, and help the population in the Third World? Force government to stop giving hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars in subsidies to Archer Daniels Midland, Cargill, and other agricultural businesses. This year alone congress approved a $280 Billion farm bill by a veto proof margin. With these subsidies ADM and Cargill can export food to the Third World to sale it there for less than Third World farmers can grow food. Other First World nations are just as bad as the US. Australia, Canada, the EU, and Japan give large subsidies as well.

    Falcon

    1. Re:farming in the third world by dbrutus · · Score: 1

      Well, yes. I oppose agri-subsidies, especially now that bumper crops can be diverted out of the food chain to supply fuel. The free market doesn't get subsidized. That's corporatism, technically economic fascism.

  131. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I read a paper by some muslim cleric justifying the murdering of civilians in Israel. Jewish babies grow up and everybody is Israel is required to server time in the military. Therefore, they are fully justified in killing future "zionist" soldiers. Sick fucker. I'd say that cleric needs killing.

    Fucking spawn campers.

  132. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Ornedan · · Score: 1

    So what you're saying is that that particular subset of the strong fucks everyone else over anyway. The difference then is that with religion, it doesn't help, but still imposes irrational and stupid rules on the society. Oh, and is an excellent tool for those wishing to control the masses of average lusers.

  133. Re:Speculation by PhilipPeake · · Score: 1

    Why are the depths of the ocean cold?

    Well, if you had listened to your teacher in science classes at school one of the things that they would undoubtedly have talked about would have had a tile a lot like "The anomalous behavior of water".

    Most liquid materials get progressively more and more dense as they are cooled, until they eventually get to a phase transition where they turn solid.

    Water is different.

    It gets more and more dense until it gets to 4 degrees C (actually, I think the more precise value is something like 3.92 degrees C), then as it is cooled further, its density decreases, still true even after its phase transition to its solid form (ice).

    This is why ice floats, and if you think about it a little, it becomes obvious why the ocean depths are 4 degrees C -- because that is the most dense that water gets, so all the water at 4C sinks to the bottom.

  134. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by dbrutus · · Score: 1

    There was a difference between the cruelty of the (Orthodox Christian) Czar and the (atheistic) Soviets. The Soviets were worse. The available data is that religion is a positive restraining force against savagery, just not a perfect one.

  135. Mother of Storms by PapayaSF · · Score: 1

    At the very least, a sudden release of mass amounts of methane could create immense hurricanes, even if no ignition takes place. The entertaining science fiction disaster novel Mother of Storms by John Barnes is based on that premise.

    --
    Q: What does the "B." in Benoit B. Mandelbrot stand for? A: Benoit B. Mandelbrot
  136. Re:Could this methane be used as a source of energ by alexborges · · Score: 1

    They could also become the Russia of methane!!

    Evil, evil empires i tell ya.

    --
    NO SIG
  137. Re:Could this methane be used as a source of energ by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

    Now with all of the methane under the permafrost in Siberia, if an efficient method to capture it can be devised, Russia could become the Saudi Arabia of methane.

    which is a truly wonderful plan. Honestly, it is!
    But could you answer one small question - what's the technology you're going to use for capture of this methane. After all, it's present over very wide areas, which is why the quantities are vast ; but the tonnage under one particular point is actually quite small. If you have more than about 5% of the methane under a target area leaking out of your collection apparatus, then the greenhouse effect impact of the methane leaked is going to be bigger than the impact of the rest of the mthane captured and burned to CO2.
    To transport the methane captured efficiently to market, you're going to have to compress it considerably. That's got a significant energy cost, so you can take that out of your energy budget.
    Maybe the clathrate methane ores can themselves be bulk-shipped to closer to market. Ah, but that implies bulk-shipping megatonnes of rather dirty water. Put that on the negative side of the energy-balance equation.

    I get quizzed on the potential of exploiting methane clathrates almost every time I go off to do my work - drilling oil wells. The people questioning me, and trying to work out solutions to the problems of exploitation and transport are mainly experienced petroleum engineers, pipeline workers, drilling engineers, mining engineers (making a better living this half-decade in the oil rather than in the minerals ; next half-decade, it'll be back to minerals). While we come up with some interesting and semi-plausible schemes, no-one who actually does this stuff for a living thinks it's going to be anything other than very difficult, and hugely expensive to develop. For a comparison, look at the tar-sands which are just starting to come on-stream and be significant - ideas about methane-clathrate mining are at the stage that tar-sand exploitation was in the early 1970s. It's hardly made it to the level of "back of an envelope".

    Methane-clathrates are a potentially significant energy source, but it's not something that's going to be commercial this side of the 2020s, if not the 2030s. Which is OK ; if the banking system hasn't collapsed, that'll be about time for me to retire, and able to experiment with off-the-wall stuff as an option to supplement my income.

    Hey, it might even be commercial in time to fill part of the energy gap which will happen after the oil has returned to being a chemical feedstock, and as the coal production is falling through the floor. That'll be good - it'll allow humankind to continue in the delusion that energy is always going to be available for another half-generation or so.

    --
    Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  138. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by religious+freak · · Score: 1

    I don't think those events were directly related to Islam or Christianity. How do you think the events were connected to either Islam or Christianity?

    --
    If you can read this... 01110101 01110010 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100111 01100101 01100101 01101011
  139. Warmer please by maggern · · Score: 1

    We folks here in cold Norway are looking forward to getting tanned at the beach during the winter. Thanks all. You rock.

    BTW, thanks for not joining the Kyoto agreement USA.

  140. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

    What would the world come to if people (or 'actors') start believing some SF book is "The Word".

    Stranger In A Strange Land. Audiobook, for a change.

    --
    Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  141. That's going to screw up the oil hunt ... by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

    On and off, for several years, sea-level and satellite readings of methane in these areas have been used as indicators of their potential for more-or-less conventional hydrocarbons. Booo - satellite can't be relied on any more for this. I guess that it's back to shooting conventional seismic (which is on schedule anyway), dipping the water for geochemical tracers, looking for natural oil slicks on satelite photos of ice-free water, and all the other conventional techniques.
    Errr, which were being done any way (or the seismic campaigns were being touted for contractors with suitable seismic boats with suitable gaps in their schedules). Oh well, film at eleven.

    --
    Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  142. subsidies by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    I oppose agri-subsidies, especially now that bumper crops can be diverted out of the food chain to supply fuel. The free market doesn't get subsidized. That's corporatism, technically economic fascism.

    Agreed. I oppose almost all subsidies, I haven't seen one I supported everything else being equal. I do support subsidies for alternative energy sources but only because other energy sources get subsidies as well. If coal, hydro, nuclear, and petroleum weren't subsidized then I wouldn't support subsidies for alternatives either.

    As it is, subsidies were only supposed to be temporary. But they have become a perpetual motion machine, every year they keep being given. And given in larger and larger amounts.

    Falcon

  143. No can find by rleamon · · Score: 1

    To quote someone famous, "Republicans are terrified of dying poor."

    Can you help us with that quote? No luck with "Republicans are terrified of dying poor" at Google, except this post, as of now.

    1. Re:No can find by fugue · · Score: 1

      I probably just screwed up the wording. I thought it was from an interview I heard on NPR, or perhaps William McDonough? Sorry, I can't find it either. There are so many variations. "[blah blah Republicans blah blah] fear naught but dying poor" etc...

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
  144. Re:Speculation by Kagura · · Score: 1

    One of the many reasons that "super-deep" (15km and less) boreholes cannot be drilled further is because the increase in temperature is too much to deal with to go further. There is a non-negligble increase in temperature even when you are "close" to the surface.

    From the Wikipedia page on the Kola Superdeep Borehole:

    However, due to higher than expected temperatures at this depth and location, 180' C (356' F) instead of expected 100' C (212' F), drilling deeper was deemed unfeasible and the drilling was stopped in 1992.

  145. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by darthdavid · · Score: 1

    On Soviet Russia trolls christen you!

  146. Re:Could this methane be used as a source of energ by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    Now with all of the methane under the permafrost in Siberia, if an efficient method to capture it can be devised, Russia could become the Saudi Arabia of methane.

    which is a truly wonderful plan. Honestly, it is!

    If the methane can effective captured it would be good. Methane is 20 tymes more powerful than CO2 as a greenhouse gas but by burning it CO2 will be released. Hydrogen can also be made from methane by reforming it.

    But could you answer one small question - what's the technology you're going to use for capture of this methane.

    That's the hangup, capturing the methane. Here's some researchers extracting methane from permafrost. I read some tyme ago about a Russian oil company working on a way to capture methane.

    I get quizzed on the potential of exploiting methane clathrates almost every time I go off to do my work - drilling oil wells.

    This brings up something I don't understand, oil companies burn off methane where they drill and pump, those flares. Is that because it's difficult and or expensive to transport?

    look at the tar-sands which are just starting to come on-stream and be significant

    Doesn't the tar-sands, at least in Alberta, require a lot of water and energy to heat the water?

    coal production is falling through the floor

    Though I'd love to see that the US has 100s of years of coal, at least the way we're using today. I don't know how long it will last if it's gasified and used for purposes other than power plants.

    Falcon

  147. increasing CO2 by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    If, in the end, the increased wealth that CO2 emissions bring you allows you to clean up practices that are polluting and you save more lives than global warming costs, the emissions are worth it even if the most dire of global warming predictions are true.

    What increased wealth that CO2 emissions create? The increase in poison ivy? The reduction in the growth rates of other plants. The increase in cooling costs? Drought in some places while others flood?

    Falcon

  148. What's particularly appealing is: by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    a) even if you capture and burn the stuff that's bubbling up, you're still reducing the overall GHG load, but even better, if you
    b) capture the effluent CO2, it may be possible to push it into the sediments in replacement for the methane clathrates.

    What's even better is to reform the methane into hydrogen.

    Falcon

  149. implications by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    It's not a cause for panic, it's something to look into. Even if this change has no global implications, the Arctic is changing in ways that make it very worth keeping an eye on.

    I just thought of another possible implication. I wonder if methane acid could form, I'm not a chemist or chemical engineer so I don't know. CO2 is already acidifying the oceans. And that acid eats the shells of shellfish.

    Falcon

  150. water vapor makes up over 90% of greenhouse gas by Phist · · Score: 1
    1. Re:water vapor makes up over 90% of greenhouse gas by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      That doesn't have anything to do with the original claim that the CO2 greenhouse effect is saturated.

    2. Re:water vapor makes up over 90% of greenhouse gas by Phist · · Score: 1

      True, the information is a weak or invalid argument to the original claim but I did find a good hiding place for information that is very inconvenient to those who believe CO2 levels are so important to the greenhouse effect while at the same time giving the information to the few of you who may understand it. Does water vapor have a saturation level? YES, it does. Is Methane gas a greenhouse gas? YES, it is. Do humans believe they have more control of Earth's climate with their CO2 footprint than nature has with all of those natural greenhouse gas emissions everywhere (such as the STRONG methane emissions on the Siberian shelf)? Yes, they do. Is this information you're now reading buried in the middle of a /. discussion concerning the greenhouse effect and saturation levels of a (rather small element of) greenhouse gas? YES, it is. Are we having fun yet?

    3. Re:water vapor makes up over 90% of greenhouse gas by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      True, the information is a weak or invalid argument to the original claim but I did find a good hiding place for information that is very inconvenient to those who believe CO2 levels are so important to the greenhouse effect

      The fact that water vapor provides most of the greenhouse fact is not "inconvenient" to the theory of CO2-driven global warming, and is in fact incorporated into all climate models with dynamical atmospheres.

      Water vapor provides most of the ~30 C baseline greenhouse effect which prevents the Earth from being a frozen iceball. That does not contradict the physics which says that increases in CO2 levels can increase the greenhouse effect by a few more degrees.

    4. Re:water vapor makes up over 90% of greenhouse gas by Phist · · Score: 1

      And what about the man made contribution of CO2 compared to natural contributions of CO2 in the atmosphere? When water reaches saturation in the atmosphere, does the ensuing rain not scrub some of the CO2 out of the atmosphere? If not, then can the remaining CO2 actually continue to increase the effect by a few more degrees without the presence of the water vapor?

      In all of the "discussions" about the greenhouse gasses, why is not water vapor mentioned? Sure, you say water vapor is incorporated into all climate models but why is it not incorporated in the discussions or even the official reports concerning the greenhouse effect? The core of the Earth is hot. There is sea floor spreading. Heat escapes through the crust into the land and oceans and the land and oceans warm up. But for some reason, it is man made CO2 in the atmosphere that gets all the blame for heating the oceans and the permafrost lands which is causing ice to melt. The ice melting is cited as "evidence" that man made CO2 in the atmosphere is causing unnaturally fast global warming. Yea, something stinks and it's not methane laced water vapor.

    5. Re:water vapor makes up over 90% of greenhouse gas by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      And what about the man made contribution of CO2 compared to natural contributions of CO2 in the atmosphere?

      Man-made CO2 has increased the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by about 35% over pre-industrial levels.

      When water reaches saturation in the atmosphere, does the ensuing rain not scrub some of the CO2 out of the atmosphere?

      Not really. Precipitation scrubs particulate matter, but not so much well-mixed gases like CO2. There are natural sinks of CO2: on land, plants absorb it during photosynthesis, and in the ocean, it dissolves into seawater. Currently, the land and ocean sinks each take up about 25% of the CO2 that humans are emitting, leaving 50% of our emissions remaining in the atmosphere to accumulate.

      If not, then can the remaining CO2 actually continue to increase the effect by a few more degrees without the presence of the water vapor?

      I don't understand what you're asking here.

      In all of the "discussions" about the greenhouse gasses, why is not water vapor mentioned?

      Water vapor is mentioned all the time; its greenhouse effect is the largest feedback amplifying the greenhouse effect of CO2. But it's not mentioned as the cause of global warming, because warming is not caused by increases in water vapor. However, warming due to other causes (both human and natural) is amplified by water vapor.

      Basically, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is controlled by the Earth's temperature. For a given temperature, the water vapor content can't increase substantially, because the Earth is in evaporation-precipitation balance and excess vapor rains out. But if something else raises the temperature of the Earth, then that changes the balance, allows more water vapor to evaporate, and amplifies the warming due to other causes. For that reason, water vapor is known as a "feedback" of warming, not a "forcing" of warming like CO2, solar irradiance, etc.

      The core of the Earth is hot.

      The core of the Earth is hot, but the amount of heat being received at the Earth's surface from the core has not increased appreciably. We can measure this via thermometers inserted into boreholes dug into the Earth's crust.

      The question is not whether there are other sources of heat in the climate system, but whether any of those sources have increased in a way that can account for the observed increase in temperature.

      But for some reason, it is man made CO2 in the atmosphere that gets all the blame for heating the oceans and the permafrost lands which is causing ice to melt.

      "For some reason"? The reason is that physics predicts this will happen due to CO2, and that other sources of warming do not agree with the rate, magnitude, or timing of the observed heating in the Earth system. It's not due to the Earth's core heating up; we can measure that over time and as a function of depth, and we see heat penetrating down from the surface, not up from below. Ditto for the seabed floor, or the oceans themselves: they're absorbing heat from the surface, not radiating it. We can go on and on like this, but the point is that scientists have studied both natural and human causes of warming for a long time. The attribution of the current warming to humans is not a whim, it's the result of testing all these hypotheses and picking the one that best agrees with the data.

  151. solar activity by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    It seems there might be a better match when looking at solar activity

    "Sun's Power Hits New Low".

    Falcon

    1. Re:solar activity by Troed · · Score: 0, Troll

      Yes - exactly. The temps have been flat and now going down for a while and it seems we're in for some very cold years ahead. If the sun stays quiet like this we're in for a new period of river-freezing winters in northern europe.

      The sun was very active a few years ago when we indeed saw some slight warming (which caused this whole global warming - sorry - climate change panic.

    2. Re:solar activity by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Your claims about the Sun are pretty much the opposite of what actually happened. Read the papers I cited earlier. In fact, solar activity did not increase appreciably for decades, right when we saw the most warming post-1970.

    3. Re:solar activity by Troed · · Score: 1

      I think you mean something else than I do with solar activity. Yes it increased - SC22 and SC23 were quite strong.

    4. Re:solar activity by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      No, they were not "quite strong", in terms of how much heat flux you actually need to explain the observed warming. Solar trends past 1950 or so are roughly AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE too small to explain the subsequent warming; the change in TSI is just a few tenths of a watt per square meter, and radiative forcing is a quarter of TSI. Furthermore cycles 22 and 23 were WEAKER than 21, on average, although 22 had some brief peaks.

    5. Re:solar activity by Troed · · Score: 1

      I don't get what you're trying to accomplish. I'm not talking about TSI. As far as I know, no one is talking about TSI except you just now.

      Svensmark has a nice hypothesis, that fits extremely well with the historical record, and is testable. (And tests are, as far a I know, on their way)

      Oh, and yes, they were indeed quite strong. If we use sun spots as the proxy, the solar cycles in the second half of the 20th century were actually the strongest combined in several hundred years (since measurements began).

      http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/images/solarcycleupdate/ssn_yearlyNew2_strip3.jpg

    6. Re:solar activity by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      I don't get what you're trying to accomplish. I'm not talking about TSI. As far as I know, no one is talking about TSI except you just now.

      You are talking about TSI, whether directly or through its modulation of cosmic rays. The fact is, TSI trends have been flat for over 50 years despite continued warming, and cosmic ray trends also don't agree with the warming.

      Svensmark has a nice hypothesis, that fits extremely well with the historical record, and is testable.

      It's been tested and it's wrong.

      Oh, and yes, they were indeed quite strong. If we use sun spots as the proxy, the solar cycles in the second half of the 20th century were actually the strongest combined in several hundred years (since measurements began).

      Solar output which is high but flat still doesn't explain increasing temperatures, even when you introduce time lag into the oceans. Indeed, if you throw in an unknown multiplying factor to solar output (representing, say, cosmic ray cloud feedbacks or any other solar feedback you might imagine) and try to estimate how big that factor can be, you find out that it's equal to or smaller than solar output alone. This was done, for instance, in Tomassini et al. last year. Basically, if you make the amplification big enough to explain the latter 20th century, you get the early 20th century wrong, and vice versa.

    7. Re:solar activity by Troed · · Score: 1

      I'm sorry, but posting your own (faulty) speculation is a bad argument.

      1) No the trends aren't flat
      2) I disagree with "it" having been tested
      3) We don't know enough about ocean currents to claim that time lag cannot explain what we're seeing

      (There is a 4 as well, of course, and that is that anything that's verified against surface temperatures is in doubt)

      I'm a bit puzzled as to how you believe science is advanced.

    8. Re:solar activity by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      1) No the trends aren't flat

      They're not flat, but they are very, very small — certainly far smaller than the trends in the preceding 50-100 years. As I've said, it's only changed by a few tenths of a watt per square meter. You can find the trends in some of the papers I've mentioned. I Googled around for a web version and found this. I don't know which reconstruction it is (it looks like Lean to me), but they all show this flattening.

      2) I disagree with "it" having been tested

      You disagree because you refuse to read the papers which test "it", including but not limited to the ones I've cited.

      3) We don't know enough about ocean currents to claim that time lag cannot explain what we're seeing

      Yes, we do. The paper I mentioned explicitly calibrated the time lag to the measured thermal response of the ocean. This response is uncertain, and they took that uncertainty into account, which means that their estimate of the solar feedback factor is itself uncertain. However, the end result of the uncertainty analysis is that it is most probable that the factor is somewhat less than the un-corrected solar output, and it is very improbable that the feedback factor is greater than at most 1.5 times solar forcing. To explain the warming using solar only or even majority solar, you would need a MUCH larger effective forcing, as I said.

    9. Re:solar activity by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      P.S.:

      I'm sorry, but posting your own (faulty) speculation is a bad argument.

      P.S. This isn't my "speculation", this is published research. If you bothered to read anything other than Svensmark, you would know this. Why you continue to cling to your disproven claims, I don't know.

      (There is a 4 as well, of course, and that is that anything that's verified against surface temperatures is in doubt)

      Well that would include your theory too, then. But that aside, the surface temperature record is not untrustworthy, for reasons I explained two days ago, and which you continue to ignore.

      The only way you can persist with your claims is by waiting long enough, so that you hope everyone forgets your claims were disproven. It's getting to be really pathetic.

    10. Re:solar activity by Troed · · Score: 1

      ... and thus we're back to having two competing hypotheses, both relying on unknown feedback mechanisms and neither having been tested enough.

      Do you see where the "YOU WILL NOT SPEAK UP AGAINST AGW OR DIE!" error lies?

    11. Re:solar activity by Troed · · Score: 1

      *smile*

      No, I'm quite confident that we'll only need to wait two more years until the AGW crowd becomes very quiet. Like the sun.

      (You make a serious scientific error when claiming "disproven" btw. No, the hypothesis is not falsified. There isn't enough data, but the data that exists is both in support as well as not. You should, of course, know this)

    12. Re:solar activity by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      ... and thus we're back to having two competing hypotheses, both relying on unknown feedback mechanisms and neither having been tested enough.

      Uh, no. We're talking about two competing hypotheses, one of which (solar) makes predictions which are wrong by an order of magnitude. The feedback mechanisms are not unknown — water vapor, lapse rate, ice albedo, cloud feedbacks, etc. have all long been studied. If you don't believe the individual feedbacks account for the majority of the total, the strength of the total feedback can be estimated from the data. If you try to apply different feedbacks to solar vs. everything else, no choice of amplifying solar feedback reproduces the data.

    13. Re:solar activity by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      (You make a serious scientific error when claiming "disproven" btw.

      I meant exactly what I said.

      No, the hypothesis is not falsified.

      It has been, unless you postulate a weird nonlinear feedback constructed to have just the characteristics necessary to mask the fact that the cosmic ray feedback doesn't agree with the data. There is no physical mechanism which supports such a feedback, the supporters of the cosmic ray cloud connection themselves don't propose any such mechanism, and it's the last ad-hoc refuge of a failed theory.

      There isn't enough data, but the data that exists is both in support as well as not.

      There is enough data, and it clearly disagrees with solar output having a dominant effect on climate over the last 50 years.

    14. Re:solar activity by Troed · · Score: 1

      one of which (solar) makes predictions which are wrong by an order of magnitude

      Currently neither of them can explain what we're seeing. The amount of research and funding having gone into them also differs by a huge amount.

      (I also don't agree with your remarks - even the wikipedia article on Svensmark's hypothesis has more info on the various claims and counter claims than you seem to display here. You seem to believe science in progress can be "true" and "false" to a degree it cannot)

    15. Re:solar activity by Troed · · Score: 1

      over the last 50 years

      You're actually the only one I can find claiming that. Others generally stop at "the last 20 years" and some at "the last 8-9" years.

    16. Re:solar activity by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Currently neither of them can explain what we're seeing.

      CO2 can easily explain the warming trend we've seen. If you're referring to the usual "we're experiencing global cooling" cliche, there isn't any evidence that the underlying long term trend has even changed beyond what can be expected from ordinary interannual natural variability.

      even the wikipedia article on Svensmark's hypothesis has more info on the various claims and counter claims than you seem to display here

      None of them get around the basic fact that you can't simultaneously match early 20th century and late 20th century temperature trends by appealing primarily to a feedback-amplified solar output, for the basic reason that the response doesn't look like the forcing. The result of the statistical analyses like the Tomassini et al. I mentioned boils down to the observation that if you amplify solar output enough to account for the late 20th century warming, you (a) get too much early 20th century warming and (b) the late warming still doesn't really match up in rate or magnitude when you take into account the ocean lag time (and its uncertainty). The only way you're going to do it is by postulating very different effects of cosmic rays on clouds at different time periods, which is not something that Svensmark himself has proposed.

    17. Re:solar activity by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Who claims that solar output has had a dominant effect on the climate until 8-9 years ago?

      Regarding the period of time over which solar hasn't been a dominant forcing, the IPCC says "between 1950 to 2005". Stott et al. say "the second half of the twentieth century". Foukal et al. say 30 years, although it should be noted that they're explicitly looking at satellite data which we only have for 30 years, and so can't give a number larger than that using that data. I suppose I can go dig for more explicit statements, but this is sufficient to indicate that I'm not the only one claiming that.

    18. Re:solar activity by Troed · · Score: 1

      :) If you do not agree with a ten year plateau and subsequent cooling then I'll just not agree with there having been twenty years of warming. You can't cherry pick data and still claim to perform science.

      When it comes to anything before the 70s we are in uncertain territory due to not having troposphere temperatures. Your claims about not being able to match the first and second halves at the same time is just one of many opinions.

  152. Israel by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    I read a paper by some muslim cleric justifying the murdering of civilians in Israel. Jewish babies grow up and everybody is Israel is required to server time in the military.

    However not all Israelis are Jews. Israel also has Arab, Christian, and Muslim citizens. There are Arab members of the Knesset, Israeli parliament. There are even Jews for Jesus and Jews for Allah.

    Falcon

  153. Re:Not only religious countries had the death pena by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    The soviet union for example and that was an atheist state. I'm not sure if russia still has it but china certainly does and thats hardly run by the religious.

    Sure, China executes criminals. The government will even bill the family of the person executed for the cost of the bullet, at least they used to.

    Falcon

  154. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    Not all religions preach against killing people. The muslims are told very specifically they must either convert non-believers or kill them.

    Citation needed.

    Though I'm not Muslim myself I had friends who were and I studied Islam in college. While Muslims are encouraged to convert non-believers, they are also supposed to treat Jews and Christians as brothers of the book.

    Fslcon

  155. religion by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    Western science of course was born out of Christian religion

    Nice try. Christians persecuted scientists and others with knowledge. When Queen Isabella told Spanish Moors and Sephardi Jews to convert or leave Spain suffered a massive brain drain, most of the educated in Spain were Jews or Muslims. During the Age of Enlightenment scientific authority started displacing religious authority.

    Err, I think you got that confused. How under an atheist world view how does a consciousness (which is usually under such a view a complex anomaly of brain chemistry) live for "all time"?

    Under atheism it doesn't but Christians do believe in a soul that is immortal. As one battle cry goes, "Kill them all, let God sort them out." An atheist can't say that, and believe it.

    Falcon

  156. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by Frantactical+Fruke · · Score: 1

    'Religious freak' said:

    Funny thing is that Islam has an even stronger moral code against killing innocents than Christianity, yet they are the ones which have the least problem with targeting purely civilian populations.

    There are a billion Muslims on Earth. If even a significant portion of these had no problem targeting civilian populations, the planet would be drowning in blood. This century, a lot more civilians have died as collateral damage from the actions of NATO troops than from bombings by minority extremists who claim to be Muslims. Most of those NATO troops and their commanders profess the Christian faith, but somehow nobody blames your contemporary Christian leaders...

    People like you were one reason I lost faith in Christianity: There is very little Christ in Christianity. You know, "love your neighbor", "turn the other cheek" and all those other beautiful ideas I associate with Jesus.

  157. Mods: mod me Offtopic by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

    Another poster pointed out that I mixed up the geologic epoch and was talking about something totally different than the original poster was. Although I suppose it's still marginally on topic since it has to do with methane emissions.

  158. Re:Siberia: crazy liberal myth or FACT? by religious+freak · · Score: 1

    The actions of those in NATO, etc were not done *for the express purpose* of pleasing God; this is in diametric opposition to the "Muslim fundamentalists" whose actions are taken to create a "Muslim" world. But yes, I could've been a little more precise and pointed out that the vast majority of mulims do not subscribe to violence in the name of their religion.

    As for the rest of my comment, I suggest you reread and pay attention to all of it, not just the quote you selected.

    --
    If you can read this... 01110101 01110010 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100111 01100101 01100101 01101011
  159. Recent Underwater Arctic Volcanic Eruptions? by rm3friskerFTN · · Score: 1
    Might this be caused by volcanic eruptions on the arctic ocean seabed described in the scientific media?

    Sampling of such articles here:
    (1) "Fire Under Arctic Ice: Volcanoes Have Been Blowing Their Tops In The Deep Ocean" http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080625140649.htm
    (2) "Arctic ocean volcano blew its top â" even under pressure" http://environment.newscientist.com/article/mg19826625.800
    (3) "Arctic Volcanoes Found Active at Unprecedented Depths" http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080626-arctic-volcano.html

    Possible methods to resolve question:
    (a) send robot submersible with video camera down the methane plume to see what is happening on the ocean floor (i.e. seeing is believing). Is it cold & dark or warm and glowing red?
    (b) audit regional distribution of frozen methane on arctic ocean floor, plotting location/concentration relative to undersea arctic ocean volcanoes and hot-water vents
    (c) place sensors on ocean floor to measure temperature & pressure

    Many people would look foolish if it later turned out the frozen methane was melting due to localized heating of the seabed caused by magma (lava) flows and/or geysers spewing hot water as happens along various undersea ridges

    --

    I believe Juanita

  160. Re:Could this methane be used as a source of energ by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

    That's the hangup, capturing the methane. Here's some researchers extracting methane from permafrost.

    Hmmm, [reads cited site] OK, so they drilled a well to a depth of hundreds of metres to extract hydrates from a zone of unspecified thickness, for an unspecified radius around the well centre.
    Maybe they used steam heating to destabilise the hydrates, then the methane comes up (while the steam condenses to water). Which is great. Until ...
    Converting hydrate to relatively clean water (or later, water ice) changes it's density from about 0.9 tonnes/m^3 to about 1.0. So for each 10 metre thickness of hydrate converted, you get a 1 metre subsidence of the ground surface, working to collapse your wellbore and and lining pipes (we call it casing). This is a well-understood engineering problem - look up the Ekofisk field, where about a half-dozen oil platforms had to be jacked up by up to 3 metres because of subsidence caused by [reasons entirely unrelated to hydrates] ; it was a major and innovative piece of engineering that the Noggies are rightly proud of. With a little luck, and a skilled and well-equipped drill crew, you might be able to retrieve some of the casing (we call it "pulling casing" ; it's a moderately frequent operation), as long as the wellbore hasn't collapsed too badly.
    How long your well is going to last depends on the thickness and area of the hydrate layer being extracted - the traditional unit of measure in the oilfield is the acre-foot (area X vertical-thickness-of reservoir) ; how many acres you can drain is determined by the permeability of the reservoir - in this case the soil between the ice crystals in the permafrost. The various bits of permafrost I've squelched through haven't had evidence of good permeability, so that's not a good sign for large productivity per well. The more vertical thickness you extract, the greater the collapse stresses you're going to impose on your wellbore. The limiting case, which you don't want to happen, is if you generate (part of) a circular fracture from your hydrate reservoir to the surface, and your steam (or warm water) and associated methane finds an easier path to a lower pressure environment through the fracture. It's called a blowout - think Red Adair (played by John Wayne in that hilarious film), or more soberingly the Lusi mud volcano in Indonesia. Doubleplusungood.
    Gut feeling in the drilling professionals - to pursue this strategy, you're going to have to be drilling wells at a spacing comparable to the depth of your hydrate reservoir, and you're going to be lucky to get months of life out of a well. Envisage a fleet of drilling rigs (small ones, it's true) working their way across the permafrost fields. Look at the energy costs this would entail ; and then look at the haul roads, access roads etc that you'll need.
    It might work ; it might produce more energy than it consumes ; but it'd take a serious amount of project assessment work to determine if it's feasible. Me, I'd be interested to work on such a project, but I'd not invest in it.

    I read some tyme ago about a Russian oil company working on a way to capture methane.

    Yeah. I bet they'll have had very familiar-sounding conversations, but in Russian. I've worked a fair bit in Russia and I respect their drilling capabilities and experience. Their through-string retrievable bit systems sound fascinating. I'd be really interested to see what they've come up with.

    Though I'd love to see that the US has 100s of years of coal, at least the way we're using today. I don't know how long it will last if it's gasified and used for purposes other than power plants.

    The state of reserve reporting, internationally and intranationally, makes the state of oil reserve reporting look good. That's before the 25% write-off from Shell's reserve books and such like. Repeating the successful

    --
    Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  161. funding by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    And of course, all your sources are unimpeachable, deeply imbued with nothing but the essence of honesty, integrity, impartiality, and infallibility. None of the generate global warmist data in at attempt to get more funding and grants.

    Exxon has more money to spend on research than Greenpeace does. Overall industry has more resources than environmental groups have, so why isn't there more studies disputing Global Warming than there is supporting it?

    Falcon

  162. Reality Check by Michael+Ronayne · · Score: 1

    There appears to have been a significant jump in methane levels in 2007 based on this alarming graphic. Global methane (CH4) concentrations rose in 2007. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/images/methanetrend.jpg But wait, it all depends on how you present the data. Figure 2. Global averages of the concentrations of the major, well-mixed, long-lived greenhouse gases http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi_2008.fig2.png Not quite as alarming when you present the data in its historical context. The methane horse is dead and the greenies are just going to have to come up with a new way to scare little children in the night. These tactics are so predictable that I am not finding much sport in the lies any longer. Earth to greenies, methane concentrations stopped increasing at just about the same time that global warming stopped. Could it be a coincidence? As the Sun sinks into an increasingly quiescent state, I find myself looking forward the big green spin machine explaining the Sun away. The games afoot and let the fun begin. You are going to have to be truly creative this time. Are you up to the task? How convincing a lie can be fabricated this time around.

  163. blowout by falconwolf · · Score: 1

    It's called a blowout - think Red Adair (played by John Wayne in that hilarious film)

    "Hellfighters" is one of my favorite movies.

    Lusi mud volcano

    Yea, I heard about that a couple of years ago. Mud keeps oozing out.

    Coal reserves:
    Reserve estimates of "hundreds of years" are not ones that their proponents defend when challenged. But like I said, this is an area of active research ; my understanding and reporting may be wrong, but I'd like to see the figure you're basing your estimate on.

    It's not my estimate, just what I've heard. Ok, I found this, which backs you up: "Science Panel Finds Fault With Estimates of Coal Supply". It was the first result googling "coal reserves" science.

    Falcon