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Humans Will Need Two Earths By 2030

An anonymous reader writes "A recent report warns that humans are overusing the resources of the planet and will need two Earths by the year 2030. The Living Planet Report tells that the demands on natural resources have doubled in the past 50 years and are now outstripping what the Earth can provide by more than half."

738 comments

  1. Noo! by DWMorse · · Score: 3, Funny

    I told you not to take the axiom of choice!

    --
    There's a spot in User Info for World of Warcraft account names? Really?
    1. Re:Noo! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'll take the Godzilla option, please.

    2. Re:Noo! by russotto · · Score: 1

      But the axiom of choice is the only thing which can save us. We'll just cut up the earth and re-assemble it into two earths of equal volume!

    3. Re:Noo! by Bahamut_Omega · · Score: 1

      Damn I hope your not referring to those damn bloody Daleks. Where's a Time Lord when you need one?

    4. Re:Noo! by abarrow · · Score: 1

      Please, ALEX!

      Get it right. I'll take Earth Burning to A Cinder for 400 please, Alex.

    5. Re:Noo! by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 2, Funny

      Well, we DO have both "Earth 2" and "Bizarro Earth", right?

      I read through much of this thread, and am pretty well convinced that we must be living on the cube-shaped alternative...

      --
      "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
      Never been known to fail..."
    6. Re:Noo! by FrootLoops · · Score: 1

      To be fair, the Banach-Tarski paradox you're referring to uses 3D Euclidean space instead of the curved Minkowski spacetime of General Relativity. I'm certain the Lebesque measure (the key ingredient to Banach-Tarski, along with the Axiom of Choice) can be extended to that spacetime, and I'm pretty sure it can be used to generate the same type of paradox. That might actually have interesting physical consequences for the theory, which, incidentally, would be entirely avoided by quantizing it. Considering how much most mathematicians like the Axiom of Choice, this could be a great (mathematician's) argument against GR and for Quantum.

    7. Re:Noo! by eln · · Score: 0, Troll

      The end is nearing. Better either consider getting in good with your maker, since He'll be coming soon, or usher in an armageddon to wipe out much of the population. Oh, wait...

      Part of the reason we're in this situation in the first place is because a not insignificant portion of the people in power (and the people who vote for them) actually do believe the second coming of Christ (or the first coming of the Messiah for the extremist Zionist wing of the Jewish people) is imminent, and are acting accordingly. It makes little sense to plan for long term stewardship of the Earth if you're convinced the end times are near anyway.

      If people were more pragmatic and less concerned with fulfilling vague prophecies in their holy books, we'd be a lot better off now.

    8. Re:Noo! by MokuMokuRyoushi · · Score: 0, Troll

      I agree that they are idiots. For being lax. Daily life should be managed the same as every day before. The Christian population of the day is so lazy it's not even funny, even(especially?) when it comes to spiritual matters.

      --
      Humans are terrible replicators of Godly things.
    9. Re:Noo! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So you basically just googled axiom of choice, skimmed the article, and barfed the first thoughts that came out of your head with some random citations to tangentially related Wikipedia article, easy +3 interesting right?

      The takeaway of this so-called "paradox" is that the physical notion of cutting up objects is quite different from a mathematical partition of sets. Especially when those partitions of sets are into non-measureable subsets. You cannot "cut up" any real object into Banach-Tarski pieces (your knife isn't sharp enough). Even if you could, you wouldn't know HOW to do it (the paradox employs AC; when you use AC you are guaranteed existence of some object, but you can't actually construct the well ordering).

      AC, on the contrary, is absolutely necessary (at least in some form) for the type of analysis needed to support physics, and even more so for things like Quantum field theory. There is no "contradiction" between AC and GR or Quantum in the sense that you speak.

    10. Re:Noo! by NonSequor · · Score: 2, Interesting

      To be fair, the Banach-Tarski paradox you're referring to uses 3D Euclidean space instead of the curved Minkowski spacetime of General Relativity. I'm certain the Lebesque measure (the key ingredient to Banach-Tarski, along with the Axiom of Choice) can be extended to that spacetime, and I'm pretty sure it can be used to generate the same type of paradox. That might actually have interesting physical consequences for the theory, which, incidentally, would be entirely avoided by quantizing it. Considering how much most mathematicians like the Axiom of Choice, this could be a great (mathematician's) argument against GR and for Quantum.

      Objects that can only be specified using the Axiom of Choice involve an infinite number of arbitrary choices. This means they have infinite Kolmogorov complexity (i.e. it's impossible to write a finite computer program that outputs a representation of the object).

      That doesn't really square well with my (limited) understanding of physics where infinities are always tucked away behind event horizons and every interesting quantity is strictly bounded.

      Of course, throwing out the Axiom of Choice also throws out Lebesgue integrals which you need for modern physics. My answer to that is that maybe the integrals work because they're just an approximation for very fine grained sums. (Discrete math major here. Analysis can suck it!)

      --
      My only political goal is to see to it that no political party achieves its goals.
    11. Re:Noo! by FrootLoops · · Score: 2, Interesting

      throwing out the Axiom of Choice also throws out Lebesgue integrals which you need for modern physics

      Throwing out AC doesn't destroy Lebesgue integrals entirely. Taking countable choice should suffice, at the least, which is somewhat better and should break Banach-Tarski. (Take this with a grain of salt, though--I haven't carefully verified these statements.)

      I agree about infinite numbers of choices being very fishy from a computational perspective. At least theoretically, a quantum state in Hilbert space should have countably many degrees of freedom (each a real number), so God should be able to encode infinitely large objects in them. I question if it's possible to manipulate such a thing into an arbitrary state--it'd probably take countably many operations, which would probably take infinite time. Of course, something similar can be said of the usual Cartesian model of position--you should be able to encode countably many digits into a real number, if you're God, at least :).

    12. Re:Noo! by CProgrammer98 · · Score: 1

      I'm not a proferssional mathematician but I think I do have a high level grasp of the principles of the BT paradox - I though it relied on being able to select an infinite number of points from the object. The earth has a finite number of atoms (or sub-atomic particles, or quarks... or.... )

      --
      And the people shall be oppressed, every one by another, and every one by his neighbour Isaiah 3:5
    13. Re:Noo! by tompaulco · · Score: 0, Troll

      That's odd. Just about every body I know is Christians, and none of them are out there trying to use up all of the world's resources because they think Jesus is coming back soon. Every single one of them is simply using resources in order to survive, just like all of the non-Christians. I don't see Christians wasting any more resources than anybody else. But nice troll anyway.

      --
      If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
    14. Re:Noo! by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      We have "Chia Earth", which features the Sixteen Chapel.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    15. Re:Noo! by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

      Since it's mostly surface space that we need, this shouldn't be a problem. I mean, spheres are so old fashioned anyways.

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
    16. Re:Noo! by Omestes · · Score: 1, Insightful

      And I DO know a couple Christians who actively don't care about the environment because Jesus will return, and usher in the end of the world and a bunch of random torment for vast swaths of the population who aren't in their church, within their life time. Their church also sends money to the Israeli settlement movement, because it will bring on the end faster.

      I find this more than a bit creepy. If Christianity didn't have an edict against suicide, there would be no Christians left. There is something very odd trying to actively bring about the end of the world, so a whole bunch of people can go burn in hell, while you and your little family get to sit in heaven and stare at Jesus' navel. There is something to be said for that school of Buddhism (I forgot what its called at the moment) where someone reaches enlightenment, and instead of leaving the cycle of reincarnation to be in whatever Buddhist "heaven" is, they stick around and try to get everyone else saved instead. Seems more noble than the Evangelical route, where you usher in the end of the world just so you can get to heaven, the rest of the world be (literally) damned. To me the desire, by their own mythology, to bring suffering on innumerable others would outweigh the whole personal salvation thing.

      But then again I don't think there are many Christians in the world who Jesus would actually recognize as followers.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    17. Re:Noo! by cjb658 · · Score: 1

      I am an evangelical Christian.

      We are taught in our church (as it is written in the Bible) that "no one will know the hour" when Christ returns.

      There have been world wars, famines, diseases, and all kinds of disasters in the last 2000 years that have wiped out millions of people. Who says it won't happen again, before Jesus returns?

      Jesus also told us to help the poor and pray for those who persecute you. He spent his time on Earth with tax collectors and sinners, and was the most critical of the establishment (Pharisees and Sadducees).

    18. Re:Noo! by Omestes · · Score: 1

      Sorry for sounding like I was putting all Evangelical Christians into the same basket. For every group there is a lunatic fringe that doesn't represent the larger body. I hate to say it, but the Evangelical movements lunatic fringe is a bit larger, more lunatic, and fringier than most. I didn't mean for it to reflect on everyone in that movement, or holding that belief system though.

      My friend's church is very extremist, and very far on the fringe. But it doesn't keep them from having at least 10,000 active members.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    19. Re:Noo! by Omestes · · Score: 1

      Jesus also told us to help the poor and pray for those who persecute you. He spent his time on Earth with tax collectors and sinners, and was the most critical of the establishment (Pharisees and Sadducees).

      Its things like that that most Christians I know have forgotten. Yes, often they help the poor of their parish, or church, but completely forget about the bigger picture.

      But what do I know, I'm just an atheist who is a fan of Jesus.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    20. Re:Noo! by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      AC, on the contrary, is absolutely necessary (at least in some form) for the type of analysis needed to support physics, and even more so for things like Quantum field theory.

      Is it? I don't think anyone has ever studied if a non-AC type of analysis powerful enough for describing physics can be found, mostly due to the fact that it would be wasted effort: the AC version works quite well. However, if you want to state that it's absolutely necessary (as opposed to simply, we depend on it for our descriptions) you'd have to proof that it is not possible to create such a theory.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    21. Re:Noo! by DWMorse · · Score: 1

      The earth has a finite number of atoms

      What, you mean that if you slice up a pie enough times, you don't have two whole pies eventually? Isn't this what politicians have been telling us works?

      --
      There's a spot in User Info for World of Warcraft account names? Really?
    22. Re:Noo! by martin-boundary · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Of course, throwing out the Axiom of Choice also throws out Lebesgue integrals which you need for modern physics. My answer to that is that maybe the integrals work because they're just an approximation for very fine grained sums. (Discrete math major here. Analysis can suck it!)

      No, no, no. Lebesgue integrals aren't *needed* for modern physics, they're just convenient. There are alternatives like the Kurzweil-Henstock integral that can replace Lebesgue with extra properties. All the usual integrals are actually very fine grained sums, they just cut up the space in different ways.

      What makes Lebesgue useful is the fact that the L_p spaces are complete (so that physicists can actually have a Hilbert space to work in. The Riemann integral won't work for that). However, the fundamental theorem of calculus doesn't hold everywhere for the Lebesgue integral, only almost everywhere, which is why people still look for alternatives.

      The other major reason why Lebesgue is commonly used is that it is an important special case of abstract (sigma finite) measure theory, which is needed for lots of things, like probability and stochastic processes, Feynman path integrals, group representations, spectral theory, etc.

  2. Bull by Anrego · · Score: 4, Insightful

    .. and we've run out of ipv4 addresses "in about a year" for the last decade or so..

    and people will probably pay about as much heed to this warning as they do to ipv4 exhaustion.

    AND just like ipv4 exhaustion, nothing serious is going to be done about this until stuff actually starts falling apart. And by falling apart I don't mean charts and graphs, I mean "The Day After Tomorrow" falling apart. And even then...

    1. Re:Bull by ect5150 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Amen... same thing about other resources. You can find clips of former President Carter claiming oil and natural gas would be gone "in the next decade" while giving speeches in the White House.

      --
      I have never let my schooling interfere with my education.
    2. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      But we can always expand our social security address space!

    3. Re:Bull by SerpentMage · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I rather doubt we will have a "day after tomorrow", things don't happen like that. Instead I see a mechanization of our nature. For example, imagine a sort of nature where things are completely recycled? Sound far fetched? Consider how Switzerland is essentially self-sufficient in copper. Does Switzerland have copper mines? Nope not even close. Copper can be easily recycled and hence Switzerland recycles their own copper. This goes towards rare earths, etc, etc.

      While many people believe that we waste, waste, waste, there are many pockets of the world that are now becoming adapt at living with little. Classic example is Israel. Israel can grow crops with water amounts that makes everybody else blush with embarrassment. That is the future...

      --

      "You can't make a race horse of a pig"
      "No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
    4. Re:Bull by arth1 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      With Ipv4, NAT gave us a reprieve, which is why we have managed up until now.

      With the Earth, don't expect any such workaround.

      That said, what TFA refers to isn't doomsday by 2030, but that in 2030, we will be using renewable resources twice as fast as they can be renewed. Which means that we are going to run out of lotsastuff one day, but exactly when is hard to estimate.

      (And perhaps even foolish to estimate -- any estimate is going to be scrutinized by the reactionary right, who will search for any error, and use it as justification to dismiss the entire research.)

    5. Re:Bull by MoonBuggy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Precisely. These kind of projections invariably fail to take into account even the most basic ideas about supply and demand. As we begin to run lower on a given resource it becomes increasingly more viable to recycle it or look for alternatives. In most cases this happens without even especially inconveniencing people - everyone might grumble about fuel prices, but then they just drive a little less, the market for more efficient cars grows, and not that much changes in our day to day lives.

    6. Re:Bull by lennier · · Score: 2, Funny

      As we begin to run lower on a given resource it becomes increasingly more viable to recycle it or look for alternatives.

      Quite so. Supply and demand will sort everything out perfectly, as a famous 1973 documentary film explained.

      --
      You are not a brain: http://books.google.com/books?id=2oV61CeDx-YC
    7. Re:Bull by Ironsides · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Expanding on the search for alternatives, they also fail to account for changes in technology. Whale Oil was replaced by natural gas. The same will happen when Coal, Oil and Gas start to become scarce. Fusion may or may not be viable by that point but we still have Hydro, Wind and Solar going in the mean time.

      --
      Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
    8. Re:Bull by eldepeche · · Score: 1

      Irrigation water is massively subsidized in Israel; they wouldn't be growing cotton in the desert if it weren't.

    9. Re:Bull by paul248 · · Score: 0, Troll

      and we've run out of ipv4 addresses "in about a year" for the last decade or so.

      [citation needed]

    10. Re:Bull by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      With the Earth, don't expect any such workaround.

      Yes we can, and are actively working towards them even as I type this.

      The workarounds include higher efficiency devices (e.g. iPad/Mac Mini/laptop instead of a massive gaming desktop), lowered consumption (when gasoline hits $5/gal in the US, odds are excellent that we'll all be driving less), and a different way of providing the goods (locally-sourced and produced foods instead of container-ship shipped, etc).

      Long-term, this also includes starting colonies off-Earth, or at least having commercial space mining and production (which in turn expands the resource pool for a lot of things, from energy to minerals, to living space when we start looking centuries ahead). We're doing space tourism now (well, not-quite-LEO), and with commercial space industry warming up, it is not impossible (or even improbable) to consider viable commercial space entities making regular trips up and back by 2030. Consider that the first airplane flight happened in 1903, and we had commercial passenger flight by 1930.

      This has nothing to do with "left" or "right", and using such designations will only muddy the water (and degenerate the debate). Please refrain from doing so.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    11. Re:Bull by commodore64_love · · Score: 3, Interesting

      What I don't understand is not the future projection, but the PRESENT claim: "Demand is... now outstripping what the Earth can provide by more than half."

      If that statement were true, we'd be starving (needing 1.5 earths to survive).
      Clearly the fellow has no idea what he's talking about.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - historian Evelyn Beatrice Hall
    12. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I find your lack of mentioning nuclear fission conspicuous.

    13. Re:Bull by socsoc · · Score: 1

      what TFA refers to isn't doomsday by 2030, but that in 2030, we will be using renewable resources twice as fast as they can be renewed. Which means that we are going to run out of lotsastuff one day, but exactly when is hard to estimate.

      TFA:

      According to the Living Planet Report, human demands on natural resources have doubled in under 50 years and are now outstripping what the Earth can provide by more than half; and humanity carries on as it is in use of resources, globally it will need the capacity of two Earths by 2030.

      Your stance certainly is not what the headline, TFS and TFA say. The key part is "now outstripping what the Earth can provide by more than half." now.

    14. Re:Bull by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What Carter was discussing was resources in the USA, at projected increased rates of consumption. Since we passed peak oil in the continental USA in the 70s, this was not inaccurate. I don't think it ever occurred to him that we were collectively such self-absorbed greedy obtuse little wussies that we would let ourselves become dependent on the Arabs, Russians and Mexicans for the life blood of our economic viability and strategic safety (i.e. Oil).

      Surprise!

      --
      Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
    15. Re:Bull by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 1

      .. and we've run out of ipv4 addresses "in about a year" for the last decade or so..

      The report doesn't say that we will run out of resources by 2030. It states that we will use our resources at double the rate than the Earth can replenish. It is unfortunate to have stated it in terms of requiring two Earths, because that won't change the minds of anyone who wasn't already convinced of the need to change our ways. All it does is give the naysayers something to focus on so they can ignore the real issues raised by the report.

    16. Re:Bull by poetmatt · · Score: 1

      uh, supply and demand is truly only to account for price. It doesn't account for availability and/or sustainability, and was never intended to do so.

    17. Re:Bull by emt377 · · Score: 1

      what TFA refers to isn't doomsday by 2030, but that in 2030, we will be using renewable resources twice as fast as they can be renewed. Which means that we are going to run out of lotsastuff one day, but exactly when is hard to estimate.

      TFA:

      According to the Living Planet Report, human demands on natural resources have doubled in under 50 years and are now outstripping what the Earth can provide by more than half; and humanity carries on as it is in use of resources, globally it will need the capacity of two Earths by 2030.

      Your stance certainly is not what the headline, TFS and TFA say. The key part is "now outstripping what the Earth can provide by more than half." now.

      1.5x+ now. 2x in 2030.

    18. Re:Bull by biryokumaru · · Score: 1

      Little known fact: soylent steaks were not actually made out of people.

      --
      When you're afraid to download music illegally in your own home, then the terrorists have won!
    19. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Anything to sell newpapers and push the speakers point of view.

    20. Re:Bull by c6gunner · · Score: 1, Insightful

      What Carter was discussing was resources in the USA

      [citation needed]

      Since we passed peak oil in the continental USA in the 70s

      You did? Funny, I could have sworn that the US still has the worlds largest supply of oil shale. Plus oil sand. Plus coal. Plus plenty of offshore oil, and oil in Alaska. I guess "peak oil" to you just means "we have less than we used to"?

    21. Re:Bull by Alef · · Score: 2, Insightful

      ...or it means that we are living off our "savings" at the moment: cutting down forests faster than we plant new ones, using up ground water reserves, depleting farmland soil of nutrients and so on. The fact that we are surviving at this moment does not mean that the current situation is sustainable.

    22. Re:Bull by Bender0x7D1 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      If that statement were true, we'd be starving (needing 1.5 earths to survive). Clearly the fellow has no idea what he's talking about.

      What he means is that we need 1.5 Earths to survive in the long-term.

      Think of the Earth like a retirement fund. You can take out more than the interest earned each year, but that means at some point in the future the account will be at zero. In this case, we are doing things like cutting down old-growth forests to make more farmland, overfishing, and doing other things that the Earth cannot replenish or repair on a human time scale. Unfortunately, when the Earth account balance hits zero, losing our home has a much broader meaning than having to move into a nursing home.

      --
      Reading code is like reading the dictionary - you have to read half of it before you can go back and understand it.
    23. Re:Bull by gilleain · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Funny, I could have sworn that the US still has the worlds largest supply of oil shale. Plus oil sand. Plus coal. Plus plenty of offshore oil, and oil in Alaska. I guess "peak oil" to you just means "we have less than we used to"?

      To most people, "peak oil" is the point at which production is at a peak. After this point, a country (or the world) is _producing_ less then they used to. Unless the oil shales have reversed the trend in the US, it does seem like that point has been reached.

      A relevant graph from wikipedia

    24. Re:Bull by IWannaBeAnAC · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If that statement were true, we'd be starving (needing 1.5 earths to survive). Clearly the fellow has no idea what he's talking about.

      OMG ur right - teh author is an idiot who failed first year logic!

      Actually, no - he means that demand is outstripping what the Earth can sustainably provide. Ie, humanity grows a fair amount of food, but only at the cost of chopping down huge swathes of forest every year. And in fact, 1 billion+ people are starving or malnourished.

    25. Re:Bull by x2A · · Score: 1

      It's true that we do have plenty o' resources left to go before we have to worry about having used them all up, but merely looking at how much we have left to feel better about it is quite deceptive for one simple reason: we use the stuff that's easiest to get at first. When the stuff that's easiest to get at has been got at, we then move onto stuff that's slightly harder to get at. Go back a hundred years and you could find rocks with real high copper content lying around on the ground. But just think about what we have to do to get at copper now, imagine how much energy is involved in grinding up and melting an entire mountain, just to get at it's 1% copper.

      The same goes for oil, there will become a point where we still have plenty of oil left, but where it will take more energy to get at the oil that we will actually get from the oil.

      So, don't be sitting too smug, we can slow down the speed at which we eat up ip addresses with the NAT etc that's used in many places. Our earth resources on the other hand, not only are we increasing in our use of, but we are increasing at an often exponential rate, so when we run out of various things, it will hit us *really* hard.

      --
      The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
    26. Re:Bull by biryokumaru · · Score: 1

      I used to know of a really thorough analysis on some forum some place that showed that even under the most magically perfect circumstances, it can never be a net energy gain to mine the moon and bring it back to earth. I think they even extended that to asteroids. Anyone know it?

      Energy production in space and transmission to earth is another story, though.

      The real distant future will see only absolute necessities travelling in or out of the massive gravity wells of planets, with almost all humans living their lives inside of one such well. The amount of energy required to move in and out is just too wasteful.

      --
      When you're afraid to download music illegally in your own home, then the terrorists have won!
    27. Re:Bull by c6gunner · · Score: 2, Insightful

      lol. Well, yeah, that's true. In that case, the US also reached peak-nuclear a few decades ago. However, if that's your definition, it's just as useless as the one I suggested.

    28. Re:Bull by mangu · · Score: 1

      Switzerland is essentially self-sufficient in copper

      some day plastic will cost as much as copper does today. Then plastic will be recycled. But the intermediary steps between now and then will be hell...

    29. Re:Bull by nedlohs · · Score: 4, Informative

      He's using the standard definition of "peak oil", you know when production rate hits its maximum. Which has exactly nothing to do with how much is in the ground - it's how much is being extracted.

      So here's the chart: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=A

      It's seems pretty obvious that peak oil for the US was in 1970. Sure we may ramp up production in the future in which case that'll just be a local maxima and not the actual peak. But it has been 40 years so far...

    30. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >(And perhaps even foolish to estimate -- any estimate is going to be scrutinized
      > by the reactionary right, who will search for any error, and use it as justification to dismiss the entire research.)

      So, where exactly do all the "resources" go? Do they leave earth? Does water, copper or whatever suddenly fly off into outer space, forever gone?

      No? Then we'll never have a shortage of anything. How's that for a reactionary right?

    31. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where are these resources going? They go around in circles. Copper is still copper. Unless we launch a significant chunk of the Earth into space the idea that our resources are disappearing is imbecillic.

    32. Re:Bull by gilleain · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Hmmm. I'm a little confused by your assumption that everyone has their own personal definition of what "peak oil" means. I'm fairly certain that there is only one accepted meaning for the term, however useful or useless. I mean, I'm all for refining the usage of words and technical terminology - but not to the point of having individual relationships with words.

      I don't find myself discussing peak oil very often, but if I wanted a term that meant "the point at which production starts to decline" then I think it would come in pretty useful....

    33. Re:Bull by RsG · · Score: 1

      I used to know of a really thorough analysis on some forum some place that showed that even under the most magically perfect circumstances, it can never be a net energy gain to mine the moon and bring it back to earth. I think they even extended that to asteroids. Anyone know it?

      Dunno where you saw the analysis, but I can guess at some of the assumptions.

      For instance, "net energy gain" implies that the object of the exercise is to obtain energy. About the only fuel we would need to go into space for is He3, and we don't yet have the means to turn it into energy, period. Everything else is either only available on Earth (i.e. fossil fuels), or available in sufficient quantity to make space extraction uneconomical (i.e. uranium).

      So, aside from beaming power back to Earth from orbiting solar collectors (which you're clearly already aware of), going into space is not a useful solution for any of our power needs on Earth. Which was probably what the analysis you're remembering was saying.

      If the object of the exercise is not to obtain energy, but to instead exchange energy for something else, like say rare earth metals, then mining offworld is workable, it just requires infrastructure and demand, both lacking at present. Mining on Earth remains the cheaper option for the foreseeable future.

      --
      Erotic is when you use a feather. Exotic is when you use the whole chicken.
    34. Re:Bull by arth1 · · Score: 1

      Actually, what I said agrees with the article.
      "by more than half" now = 1.5x in 2010
      "will need two earths" in 2030 = 2x in 2030

      In other words, yes, we already use more than we should, and in the next 20 years, we'll increase that already high resource use by 33%, unless we put a brake on.

      Remember, the faster we go, the harder the crash will be.

    35. Re:Bull by Goody · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Bad analogy. "Peak nuclear" is merely due to a lack of construction of nuclear power plants, not lack a lack of nuclear fuel. Peak oil is due a dwindling amount of oil that can be economically extracted.

      --
      Tired of being "punished" by the Slashdot $rtbl since 2002. I'm now over at http://soylentnews.org/ .
    36. Re:Bull by khallow · · Score: 1

      I used to know of a really thorough analysis on some forum some place that showed that even under the most magically perfect circumstances, it can never be a net energy gain to mine the moon and bring it back to earth. I think they even extended that to asteroids. Anyone know it?

      That analysis is wrong almost trivially. First, I can easily come up with "magically perfect circumstances" under which it'd be a net energy gain, even if the energy cost of getting something from the Moon was many orders of magnitude more expensive than it actually is. You just magically make the energy cost of extracting the resource on Earth even larger. Such is the magic of magic.

      Second, energy cost is a red herring. Energy cost is not actual cost. Keep in mind, for example, that extracting resources (aside from energy) is a net energy loss. Even on Earth. Yet we do it anyway because the value of the good extracted is greater than the cost, including but not limited to energy cost. You merely need the same circumstance to hold on the Moon for the resource to be profitable on Earth.

      And need I add that energy cost is not that expensive? There are plenty of goods on the Moon that could cover the $5-10 of energy cost per kilogram (assuming very generously that energy costs on the Moon remain at least as expensive as they are on Earth, which I don't think will hold).

    37. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And price is what directs our decision making. Your point?

    38. Re:Bull by bumburumbi · · Score: 1

      How the Swiss recycle their copper is irrelevant. They have a population of less than 8 million and are already one of the most developed countries in the world. What does matter is that China and India have a population of 2.5 billion, a much less developed infrastructure than Switzerland and can't meet their demand for copper (or other resources) simply by recycling. There is an awful lot of dirt poor people wanting to improve their lot and approach the quality of life we in the west are enjoying. For that to happen, all kinds of scarce resources are needed and demand will continue to grow.

    39. Re:Bull by NFN_NLN · · Score: 4, Interesting

      What Carter was discussing was resources in the USA

      [citation needed]

      Those talks on peak oil production for 1970 were based on M. King Hubbert's theory for the US lower 48 states. With respect to the lower 48 states, he was accurate: http://dieoff.org/page1916.gif

      Funny, I could have sworn that the US still has the worlds largest supply of oil shale. Plus oil sand. Plus coal. Plus plenty of offshore oil, and oil in Alaska. I guess "peak oil" to you just means "we have less than we used to"?

      With the US as a net importer and a dwindling supply of domestic oil I'm not sure where you're going with this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

      The United States #1 source of oil is Canada. That oil comes from traditional wells that are drying up and more recently oil sands that are expanding production. However, the oil sands are far from a recent discovery. They have been well known since oil became a commodity but were left untouched because it is incredibly expensive to recover.

      That fact that companies are paying big bucks to develop oil repositories that are expensive only proves that they're running out of traditional oil... and they're heading into the tail end of the curve.

      - If you need to burn half the equivalent energy in natural gas to extract the oil from the sand as you recover in oil energy...
        OR
      - If you need to drill offshore in water so deep it becomes a risk... ...then something is wrong.

    40. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Geez. learn to Google.

      http://www.isp-planet.com/technology/2001/ipv6_nowagain.html
      "While some talk of the slow adoption of IPv6, at least one expert, who is at ground zero of the impending IP implosion, says the melt down of the Internet is already underway"
      [August 7, 2001]

      9+ years ago. Close enough. Sheesh.

    41. Re:Bull by General+Wesc · · Score: 1

      I think he might be using the term 'most people' as an ironic understatement. That is the definition. 'Most people'==everybody who uses the term correctly. And we use that definition/term because it's quite useful in modelling. Production/utilization of coal/oil/uranium/water/etc. accelerates for some time, peaks, and then drops. These commodities are finite and are not durable good. The oil is input to the economy, not capital like a factory. If we slow the building of factories, the economy continues to grow, so long as we don't decommission any. If we slow the input of oil/coal/uranium/water/whatever (because we hit peak production and have to shift to marginal sources), we need to substitute something else (or increase efficiency at a faster rate than input drops) or the economy will slow (and demand for alternatives will rise--tell me this isn't useless to know).

      Actually, your point about nuclear demonstrates a small error in the above definition. 'Peak' refers more to the peak of production potential (or something along those lines). We could be producing less nuclear fuel by choice, but not because the speed at which nuclear fuel can be mined and refined has declined.

    42. Re:Bull by Alef · · Score: 4, Interesting

      While technology might very well "save us" once again, it's a bit audacious to assume that it always will in the future. Civilizations have fallen before, and all of them could probably have argued in a similar way before the end: It has worked fine up until now, so why shouldn't it continue to?

      I actually think energy is one of the easier problems to solve -- solar cells will drop in price as demand increases and technology advances, and the sun provides orders of magnitude more power than we have use for at the moment. But if you look at almost any other natural resource, demands are increasing at an exponential rate. Since resources are limited, it is impossible for this to continue for very long. I have no doubt that society will adapt, the question is how disruptive the changes will be. At the moment, it appears that some prominent economies think that even reducing oil consumption is out of the question due to the economical effects it would have.

    43. Re:Bull by drainbramage · · Score: 1

      We also passed 'Peak Buggy Whip' production some time ago.
      Although you are correct in the common use of 'Peak Oil', I find the common use is misleading as c6gunner pointed out by by his statement about the US also reaching peak-nuclear a few decades ago.
      --
      Countries intentionally limit production (OPEC much?) to manipulate prices.
      When it is known that 'Peak Oil' refers specifically to production but it is used to say 'the end is nigh, the US is evil' then it looks like, well, a Shell game.

      --
      No brain, no pain.
    44. Re:Bull by wierd_w · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Second law of thermodynamics; Learn it, Live it, Love it.

      When you drop an egg on the ground, the raw materials that constituted the egg are not destroyed, but the egg is no longer useful. It would require a considerable amount of energy to reconstruct the egg into a useful condition. This is called ENTROPY.

      Nature stores and makes use of energy in various forms, including fossil fuels, but also in the form of minerals etc-- Using these resources improperly destroys the resource faster than it is produced.

      EG, it takes nature X years to produce a large tree; Cutting it down takes only a few minutes. Once the tree is used, you don't magically get a new tree from the resources after they have been processed. Those resources have to be broken down (requires energy), recirculated in the environment (requires energy), and reconstituted as a new tree by another seedling (requires lots of energy and time.)

      In the meantime, humans are greedily hunting for energy sources to exploit. the exploitation of these energy sources causes another problem; The earth can only eliminate thermal waste (biproduct of entropy) at a maximum theoretical rate- (the rate it can radiate that heat into space as IR radiation)

      Right now, "Global Warming" is a 2 factor beast-- the consumption of energy resources produces a biproduct that is energy intensive to recycle by mother nature, which also has the added effect of reducing the rate at which the earth expels waste heat into space. This has the net effect of causing the earth to heat up.

      Now, if we couple this with some of the proposed solutions to the energy crisis (Space based solar power, Fusion energy, etc--) we end up creating NEW problems:

      Space based power: We increase the amount of energy reaching the planet, and consequently increase the baseline thermal energy production of the planet. This will cause global warming faster than you can imagine. The earth's current temperature (sans global warming effects) is the result of an equilibrium of energy in VS energy out. Fucking with that causes the equilibrium to shift, so dont do it.

      Fusion energy: Requires "light" atomic nuclei. This is most commonly extracted from seawater right now in the form of exotic deuterium, but widespread use of fusion would mean use of ordinary hydrogen; the most widely available source being water. Water is already a limited resource on this planet. You just trade fossil fuels for water, and unlike CO2, mother nature cannot turn heavy atoms into lighter ones on anything close to a human timetable.

      Really, the ONLY viable option is to stick with being inside the energy equilibrium budget our planet affords us-- Sorry Apple hipsters; that means no iPhones for you unless you can create, power, and recycle the device using NOTHING but solar energy, and without releasing any effluents.

      Any technological solution to the power problem will only create additional problems. The Mathusian catastrophe WILL happen.
      Technology is NOT magic; it obeys the fundamental laws of nature, namely the thermodynamic ones. Technology will NOT save you, unless you intend to LEAVE the earth to support your population growth. If that's the case, I strongly suggest that you spend more money on space programs, since by current propulsion strategies it would take several thousand years to reach the closest earth-like planet in the Gliese star system.

      In short-- Your argument falls flat on it's face; Venus has all the raw materials for a good earth, but the devil is in the details. It cannot support life, because of the kinds of problems I just cited above. (It absorbs more energy than it can easily radiate back into space, causing runaway greenhouse effects, and making the planet WAAAAAAY too hot.)

      The earth simply cannot sustain the human civilization as it currently exists. Own up to it. Science screams it at us from every corner, but we refuse to listen, and in the end, we will destroy everything with our hubris.

    45. Re:Bull by x2A · · Score: 2, Informative

      It's simple. Take copper for example. Picking a nice easy round number just for demonstration, say we use 1Kg of copper per person per year, and we have 6.75Bln people on the planet. Unfortunately, if we average out all the copper trees to growing 1Kg of copper per tree per year, we see that we only have 4.5Bln copper trees. This is why we're having to roll out fiber optics for broadband instead of copper, because the copper trees are really tired. Why don't we just planet more copper trees? Well we are, but we don't have enough seeds. And so the cycle continues.

      Hope this helps.

      --
      The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
    46. Re:Bull by runningduck · · Score: 1

      So what you are saying is that we can just NAT all of our resources. Instead of one person drinking a glass of water we can hide hundreds of people behind the glass and they can all share the glass of water.

      --
      -rd
    47. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Jevons paradox, bitch.

    48. Re:Bull by Mr+Z · · Score: 4, Informative

      The main problem is with what economists call externalities. Waste byproducts, pollution, resource depletion, etc. are all negative externalities that aren't immediately reflected in the cost of a good or service. Policy decisions, though, such as pollution regulation, manufacturer takeback requirements, and so on can internalize those costs in the final selling price of a good or service.

      This is where regulation meets the marketplace, and how proper regulations and policies can work together with market forces to drive sustainability. But, it does require forces outside the market (such as government regulation) to internalize those costs so that they get accounted for up front.

      For example, I actually would be in favor of increased fuel taxes, with the money allocated directly to greenhouse gas abatement programs, whether it's planting tree farms or sequestering carbon by some other means, or converting power plants away from coal.

    49. Re:Bull by gilleain · · Score: 1

      Although you are correct in the common use of 'Peak Oil', I find the common use is misleading as c6gunner pointed out by by his statement about the US also reaching peak-nuclear a few decades ago.

      I agree that it is sometimes used (incorrectly) to mean, essentially "there is no more oil!!!1!". However, buggy whips and oil are not the really the same kind of thing - and 'nuclear' is not like either of them. Uranium might have a peak, I suppose, but that's a whole other discussion

      Countries intentionally limit production (OPEC much?) to manipulate prices. When it is known that 'Peak Oil' refers specifically to production but it is used to say 'the end is nigh, the US is evil' then it looks like, well, a Shell game.

      Heh, was that a pun? Oddly enough, I have relatives who work for Shell. Doesn't mean I know anything about upstream of course; but maybe some of the jargon has rubbed off on me.

    50. Re:Bull by commodore64_love · · Score: 0, Redundant

      >>>This is why we're having to roll out fiber optics for broadband instead of copper, because the copper trees are really tired.

      Win.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - historian Evelyn Beatrice Hall
    51. Re:Bull by gilleain · · Score: 1

      I think he might be using the term 'most people' as an ironic understatement. That is the definition...

      It's true, I was using understatement - perhaps because I'm British; I can't help it. :)

    52. Re:Bull by x2A · · Score: 1

      Sure, and when we 100% recycle everything, we won't have any problems, we won't even need to dig anything new out of the ground. But we are digging stuff out the ground, because we don't recycle everything.

      So sure, there'll become a point where we start digging up all our landfill sites, trying to find all those old mobile phones etc to extract the metals out of. The reason we're not doing it now? It's a lot more expensive than digging new stuff out of the ground! It requires more money, and more energy to do it. So, what does that say about what the money and energy costs or getting all that metal back that we just throw away? It's gonna strain our ability to use it, obviously.

      I'm sure we had a story right here on /. within the last day or few about people losing their internets because of people stealing the copper out of the system to sell because of its rising value. The point is, it's not going to get better. It's going to get worse.

      It's far more imbecilic to think that the argument's as simple as how you present it. Magic isn't a real thing, so you can't just rely on it to put copper into your hands when you need it. Try looking at the real world, and how it actually really works. You might be surprised by a thing or two.

      --
      The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
    53. Re:Bull by westlake · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The workarounds include higher efficiency devices (e.g. iPad/Mac Mini/laptop instead of a massive gaming desktop)

      The iPad is a mobile device - the user is on the move.

      The mobile gadget or mini HTPC doesn't replace the more capable full size laptop or desktop. It is your second or third, fourth, fifth or sixth purchase of an Internet enabled appliance - which include all your e-book readers, smartphones, video game consoles, HDTVs and so on.

      The infrastructure needed to suppport all this is not trivial.

      The gamer's desktop doesn't have to be winterized. It doesn't have to survive the four foot drop to the pavement. It can be enjoyed off-line.

       

    54. Re:Bull by c6gunner · · Score: 0

      Bad analogy. "Peak nuclear" is merely due to a lack of construction of nuclear power plants, not lack a lack of nuclear fuel.

      Yes, which is exactly why it's a good analogy. "Peak oil" in the US is also "merely due to a lack of construction" - there's still plenty of oil left in the ground.

    55. Re:Bull by General+Wesc · · Score: 1

      I completely agree that science and technology always has been and always will be the solution. Waste will be reduced, alternative energy sources will be tapped more efficiently, and rare materials recycled more thoroughly. Hopefully we'll get there without too much pain, though I'm more than a little worried.

      Shipping people off to off-Earth colonies, however, are not going to be a solution (and I'm skeptical about using extra-planetary resources). The human population is currently measured in billions and annual growth in the high tens of millions. Somehow I doubt ships of emigrants will be measured in those units in any even slightly-relevant timeframe. We may populate other planets, but not by launching ships carrying a billion people. Emigration from Earth will not put a dent in the world population. I'd count on a transferral of consciousness into computers long before I counted on mass emigration.

    56. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      an mac mini would have been a gamers dream desktop 20 years ago. The only thing it can't do that a gamers desktop can, is play absurd video games. If there is no food left to eat, I don't think the reduced selection of video games will be my top priority.

    57. Re:Bull by Eskarel · · Score: 1

      There's really not all that much less physical material in a mac mini than in a standard desktop, they may be smaller, but remember the vast majority of your desktop is air.

      One could also argue that it's far more wasteful to spend the materials and energy to produce and run a toy which is incapable of accomplishing any serious tasks(iPad, ChromeOS, netbook) than to produce and run something which is actually fit for purpose.

    58. Re:Bull by mcornelius · · Score: 1

      uh, supply and demand is truly only to account for price.

      No. Supply and demand account for value, not price. Price is given in some other good for which the determination of value is separate and distinct. During periods of high inflation, it's not goods becoming scarcer or demand increasing that changes the amount you pay for them. Supply and demand change the value of the currency during periods of inflation or deflation, changing prices throughout the market.

      It doesn't account for availability and/or sustainability,

      Actually, it does. It's called supply.

      and was never intended to do so.

      It was never intended to do anything. The law of supply and demand was not created by direct human action with any intentions; it has been observed to be true.

    59. Re:Bull by mav092588 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      He means that a drastic supply shock, like the one being hinted at in the article, would have far bigger consequences than simply influencing people to not drive as much. What happens when they CAN'T drive as much because oil is so expensive? They won't be able to get to their jobs, get to stores, turn on their lights (remember, EVERYTHING runs on fossil fuels). Sure, we may eventually find a suitable substitute; but we don't yet have the infrastructure to supply wind/solar power to the country, much less the world. In the meantime, it would massively fuck up the labor markets and bring every single economy to their knees.

    60. Re:Bull by Darkman,+Walkin+Dude · · Score: 1

      The earth can only eliminate thermal waste (biproduct of entropy) at a maximum theoretical rate-

      Hang on a minute - you're saying that if for example heat energy is used to create electricity, as in a quantum thermoelectric engine, you'll end up with more heat at the end? I cannae figure that, if the electricity is being produced by thermal energy, how can you end up with x thermal energy going in producing x+y thermal energy + electrical energy? I get that entropy is produced, but how does that then create more heat?

    61. Re:Bull by mcornelius · · Score: 1

      Partly true.
      Externalities are effects that change the value of goods for persons not engaged in a transaction, of which regulation is an example. (I want clean air and water; I don't care about your process for manufacturing widgets. Widgets are not my concern, but I get my clean air and water, and your widgets are more expensive, a negative externality for you.) Calling government regulation a force outside the market is missing the entire point.

      By introducing or maintaining government regulators, however, you open the doors for regulatory capture, and the operating market is the competition for influence over regulators, rather than the open market.

    62. Re:Bull by frdmfghtr · · Score: 1

      I think the poster's comment was supposed to suggest the use of more efficient devices appropriate to the task, not necessarily those particular devices. A massively powerful gaming PC is overkill and a waste of resources IF all one does is e-mail and web browsing.

      --
      Government's idea of a balanced budget: take money from the right pocket to balance...oh who am I kidding?
    63. Re:Bull by Anrego · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The point of my post wasn't that the technological workarounds that have held off ipv4 exhaustion directly translate into resource depletion.

      Although it really does apply. As a resource becomes more scarce (water, gas, ipv4 address space) there becomes more incentive to find workarounds.

      In other words.. recycling might become the NAT of earths resources. But no one is even going to think about it until we actually start running out of something (even if you've got a pile of evidence saying we _will_ run out soon).

    64. Re:Bull by tekiegreg · · Score: 1

      Getting to their jobs: Fine we work locally or at home, it's been happening more and more already

      Stores: True distribution is a problem, but I walk to ghe grocery store as it is

      As far as power goes, most of it is Coal and that is in no danger of running out anytime soon. Nuclear can be brought back online if things get desperate.

      Alright so where's the next armageddon scenario I can shoot down...

      --
      ...in bed
    65. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Too bad 'sustainability' is a buzzword which at this point seems to mean whatever 'green' meant in the 90s.

      That phrase is useful in the limited sense of balancing what's consumed with what's produced - fishing at a rate that keeps stocks steady, for example.

      Where the concept of 'sustainability' falls down is its simplistic extrapolation of current trends indefinitely into the future. It's a bit like looking at a 6-month trend of the stock market and declaring from that the the Dow is either going to hit 1 million or zero, given enough time. Likewise, human interaction with the environment won't continue as it is right now for twenty years in the future; people will modify their behavior and their technology and, unless we're very unlucky, things will be OK.

      In the meantime, everyone should remember DNA's words ('Don't Panic!'), and think about practical solutions that allow us to keep improving humanity's lot.

    66. Re:Bull by Courageous · · Score: 1

      I'd worry about water, first.

      I'm not that terribly worried about it domestically, as we are getting by with what we have and birth-death is net negative (only immigrants account for our pop growth). We could, thus, simply stop all immigration.

      Still, the water problem is a biggun.

      C//

    67. Re:Bull by x2A · · Score: 1

      "Win"

      Haha, I know, I'm pretty good at tailoring an argument to a specific crowd to get them onside huh! "Hmm, Slashdot, they seem like the kinds of people who will be against the rolling out of fiber optics for high speed internet", I should be in PR or something! Feel free to marvel ;-)

      --
      The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
    68. Re:Bull by Mr+Z · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Externalities are effects that change the value of goods for persons not engaged in a transaction, of which regulation is an example. (I want clean air and water; I don't care about your process for manufacturing widgets. Widgets are not my concern, but I get my clean air and water, and your widgets are more expensive, a negative externality for you.)

      In the absence of the regulation, the pollution is a negative externality that affects the people not interested in the widgets. The widget producer has imposed an external cost on people not interested in widgets. If those people push back (ie. require the widget producer himself to absorb the cost through regulation or other means) so that the cost of cleaning up the pollution is included in the cost of the widget, then that cost is internalized.

      Using your example: If you start and end with clean air and clean water, there's no transaction with a cost to externalize to the widget producer. If you achieve that goal by regulating the widget producer, you've merely prevented the widget producer from externalizing a cost. You haven't externalized one of your costs onto him. You didn't have a cost to externalize. "Keeping the air clean" is not a transaction.

      Therefore, calling the regulation an external cost to the widget producer in this case is incorrect. An externality is something that doesn't show up in the final price of the good or service. Forcing an externalized cost back into the price internalizes the cost. The force itself isn't not an externality.

      By introducing or maintaining government regulators, however, you open the doors for regulatory capture, and the operating market is the competition for influence over regulators, rather than the open market.

      A very good point also.

    69. Re:Bull by The+Master+Control+P · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The US did not reach "peak nuclear" because there's no technical reason preventing increased nuclear output from the US. There's a lot of "cut off one's face" greens who've succeeded in bringing about even more coal burning, but that's not here or there. Nor did we encounter Peak Buggy Whip, the demand simply fell away. We could begin ramping nuclear up any time we wanted, but we'll never produce as much oil as we used to (let alone enough to meet our increased consumption since then) however we try.

      And that is what Peak X specifically refers to: An inexorable decline in production & major increase in prices that results as initial easily accessible supplies are depleted.

    70. Re:Bull by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      A heat engine operates on the temperature differential between a hot and cold source. Running the engine raises the temperature of the cold source, or heat sink. As the temperature of the sink rises, the differential falls, along with the available energy or efficiency of operation.

      Even if greater amounts of energy are constantly added to the Earth, the total amount of this energy that can be utilized is limited by the ability of the Earth to radiate waste heat into space.

      Hopefully this is what you were asking.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    71. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      fuck you troll. or maybe you are not trolling just retarded?

    72. Re:Bull by gutnor · · Score: 1
      Supply/Demand is quite blind to who win and who lose. Sure something will replace oil before you run out - somehow, I'm sure that the US will be happy to stay a superpower and will want to make sure that they are in a position of having the supply and the demand coming from other countries.

      Supply/Demand is also only good for stuff that are controlled by the market like oil. Deforestation, is quite the opposite. The higher the demand/price for food, the more incentive you have to deforest. Regardless if you think that deforestation is good or bad, when the forest runs out, the people depending on it will need to do something. You need to make sure that they do something that is in your interest.

    73. Re:Bull by The+Master+Control+P · · Score: 2, Informative

      No, it's not a good analogy. We can ramp up nuclear any time we choose. We can't ramp up US oil production, because if we could it would've been done. By the time oil is so expensive that it's economically viable to turn the entirety of the Rocky Mountains into the world's largest mesa, it'll be so expensive we'll have gotten off that particularly nasty crack pipe anyway.

      The last time oil got so expensive as to spur major interest in oil shales & tars, it was between $100 and $130/bbl and the price of gas was spiralling past $4/gal. The resulting surge in the price of transportation drove one last stake into the heart of the US economy at the start of the "housing crisis" as it was then called.

    74. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      eat shit and die mac-tard.

    75. Re:Bull by Demolition · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yes, which is exactly why it's a good analogy. "Peak oil" in the US is also "merely due to a lack of construction" - there's still plenty of oil left in the ground.

      You're still not using the term correctly. As mentioned by others, "peak oil" concerns the point of maximum production (extraction) of oil. That is, when the rate at which we pull oil from the ground begins to decline.

      What you're talking about is "oil depletion", i.e. where the physical supply of oil gets low.

      These two conditions might be linked by circumstances, but they don't mean the same thing, obviously.

    76. Re:Bull by zacronos · · Score: 1

      Hang on a minute - you're saying that if for example heat energy is used to create electricity, as in a quantum thermoelectric engine, you'll end up with more heat at the end?

      The thermoelectric effect does not mean you can absorb arbitrary heat energy and convert it to electricity. What it does mean is that you can take a thermal differential and get some energy out of the natural flow of heat energy across that differential. Do you wind up with more heat at the end? No, not more, but it's not clear to me that you wind up with less, either. What you have less of is thermal differential, not necessarily less heat. If you don't have less heat, but you do have electric potential, and heat results from the use of that electric potential, then at that further point, yes, there might be more heat. Even if you do have less heat initially, it is still possible that the use of that electric potential will still result in more heat eventually. This is the edge of my understanding, perhaps someone who understands the thermoelectric effect better can fill in my ignorance.

    77. Re:Bull by catchblue22 · · Score: 1

      We can be very clever. We can find ways to use fewer resources, to recycle, to keep a good standard of living in a world of diminishing resources. But our ability to adapt can be taxed. That ability to adapt depends largely on a stable society, where cities can exist because food production is large enough to produce a surplus. If this starts to change, it is possible to imagine a case where our cleverness will be irrelevant, because each person is expending most of their effort scratching a living from nothing.

      --
      This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
    78. Re:Bull by jesset77 · · Score: 1

      I used to know of a really thorough analysis on some forum some place that showed that even under the most magically perfect circumstances, it can never be a net energy gain to mine the moon and bring it back to earth. I think they even extended that to asteroids. Anyone know it?

      You're kidding, right?

      Gravity wells do not simply waste energy to leave. It is also possible (though possibly tricky) to reclaim much of that lost energy on return.

      Presently we use rockets to get off the ground here and then rockets to slow our approach again there. But with the right infrastructure, one could capture incoming space vessels in a device (for simplicity if not reliability, let's say a slingshot) which absorbs the energy of their approach. Then when they wish to lift off again, let loose their slingshot with a moderate rocket assist to make up for lost momentum.

      --
      People willing to trade their freedom of expression for temporary entertainment deserve neither and will lose both.
    79. Re:Bull by lennier · · Score: 1

      Long-term, this also includes starting colonies off-Earth, or at least having commercial space mining and production (which in turn expands the resource pool for a lot of things, from energy to minerals, to living space when we start looking centuries ahead).

      Does it really?

      There's a big difference between "space resources we could theoretically use to build spaceships out of", ie, metal ore, and "space resources that a human could use to survive": ie water and a functioning biosphere.

      But there is no known biosphere in the solar system. A little bit of water and CO2 at the poles of Mars and in comets (which have an orbital period of hundreds of years). Possibly some weird hydrocarbons on Titan or Europa. A whole lot of hydrogen on Jupiter, and insta-death levels of radiation. And lots and lots of vacuum.

      The bottom line is that - short of a warp drive which we don't even have physics for - there's nothing in space that would support human life that we don't take with us prepackaged in tin cans. And if you can build a garden in a tin can and shoot it into space, you can build a dozen on Earth and put them in the Sahara or Antarctic for much cheaper, plus you get free air and penguins.

      So why does 'solar system resource extraction is the long-term solution to human overpopulation' get a +5? It isn't and it can't be.

      --
      You are not a brain: http://books.google.com/books?id=2oV61CeDx-YC
    80. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "These kind of projections invariably fail to take into account even the most basic ideas about supply and demand. As we begin to run lower on a given resource it becomes increasingly more viable to recycle it or look for alternatives."

      And these type of projections fail to take into account that the Earth can't support an infinite population. There will be a limit at some point.

    81. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      nice pair of lips to reach apples dick from here

    82. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The solution is to send up a fleet of B-52's and have them run bombing missions worldwide, dropping pallets upon pallets of latex condoms.

    83. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The flaw in this argument is that the market can't react to sudden shocks. Were oil supplies to drop suddenly, it could be a serious problem (and has been in the past, which is why we have a strategic reserve). Alternative energy won't just spring up overnight you know. And this completely ignores the eco damage from burning increasingly damaging fuels (shale oil, gasefied coal oil, etc).

      Furthermore, it's not just people driving: our entire food supply is dependent on guzzling fuel like it'll be around forever. Everything will become far more expensive very quickly and if we don't accept a signficiant drop in standard of living we are in serious trouble.

    84. Re:Bull by caerwyn · · Score: 1

      The problem with this is that it assumes that we see the supply shock far enough in advance to reorganize our population for it. That's not necessarily something we can expect to happen. Look at places like LA or NYC: they are wholly dependent on cheap long-distance transportation of goods, and could completely collapse without them.

      That's the problem with complete dependence on a market- it'll fix itself in the end, but that interim, while it's doing so, can be incredibly painful if we don't take steps to being heading in that direction ahead of time, especially when the writing is on the wall about what's coming up.

      --
      The ringing of the division bell has begun... -PF
    85. Re:Bull by rossdee · · Score: 1

      Oil in shale and tar sands takes a lot of energy to extract. Its not worth it economically. At least for using oil as an energy source. It may be useful if we have some other source of energy like fusion, and we could use that to extract the oil for its non-energy uses (plastic industry)

    86. Re:Bull by Eivind+Eklund · · Score: 2, Informative

      Second law of thermodynamics; Learn it, Live it, Love it.

      When you drop an egg on the ground, the raw materials that constituted the egg are not destroyed, but the egg is no longer useful. It would require a considerable amount of energy to reconstruct the egg into a useful condition. This is called ENTROPY.

      Nature stores and makes use of energy in various forms, including fossil fuels, but also in the form of minerals etc-- Using these resources improperly destroys the resource faster than it is produced.

      EG, it takes nature X years to produce a large tree; Cutting it down takes only a few minutes. Once the tree is used, you don't magically get a new tree from the resources after they have been processed. Those resources have to be broken down (requires energy), recirculated in the environment (requires energy), and reconstituted as a new tree by another seedling (requires lots of energy and time.)

      In the meantime, humans are greedily hunting for energy sources to exploit. the exploitation of these energy sources causes another problem; The earth can only eliminate thermal waste (biproduct of entropy) at a maximum theoretical rate- (the rate it can radiate that heat into space as IR radiation)

      Right now, "Global Warming" is a 2 factor beast-- the consumption of energy resources produces a biproduct that is energy intensive to recycle by mother nature, which also has the added effect of reducing the rate at which the earth expels waste heat into space. This has the net effect of causing the earth to heat up.

      Now, if we couple this with some of the proposed solutions to the energy crisis (Space based solar power, Fusion energy, etc--) we end up creating NEW problems:

      Space based power: We increase the amount of energy reaching the planet, and consequently increase the baseline thermal energy production of the planet. This will cause global warming faster than you can imagine. The earth's current temperature (sans global warming effects) is the result of an equilibrium of energy in VS energy out. Fucking with that causes the equilibrium to shift, so dont do it.

      Having opinions before you actually look at numbers cause errors. Don't do it.

      According to the first website I found on the topic the amount of energy humans is used is 1/6000th of the amount that the earth gets from the sun.

      With any normal increase of the temperature of a black body, the amount of radiation will also increase (by the fourth power of the absolute temperature; the Stefan-Boltzmann law). The average temperature of the earth is somewhere in the 13C to 15C range (according to another quick search). Taking the upper number there (since that'll require the highest absolute increase), we have 288.15K. To radiate 1/6000 extra for this, we need a temperature increase of 0.012 degrees centigrade (0.0216 Farenheight). If we postulate that we would import one hundred times as much energy as we spend today, we would require a temperature increase of 1.11 degrees centigrade to radiate it. This is the same increase as we expect the *minimum* increase from present global warming to be; the estimate is (according to Wikipedia) 1.1C to 6.4C. With this, we could take in one hundred times as much energy for the same amount of warming (disregarding any effects of forcing through water vapor.) Because water vapor roughly doubles the effect of warming, this should probably be halved; it is still a significant improvement, don't you think?

      I have no idea how quickly people can imagine global warning, but I'm sure it's faster than this.

      Oh, and the same problem occurs with fusion power; it adds energy. As does using fossil fuels, except that adds energy twice: Once for using it, and then through the greenhouse effect (capturing more energy from the sun).

      --
      Doubting the existence of evolution is like doubting the existence of China: It just shows that you're uninformed.
    87. Re:Bull by radaghast · · Score: 1

      Well the definition is useful because when peak oil is reached the supply unavoidably begins to decline (unless supplemented from outside sources, which is what the U.S. did in the 70's), thus increasing prices.

      The Saudis, and Canadians, and Brazilians who sell us oil are all capitalists and just want to make as much money as possible. They will screw us over if that coincides with their goal, but no more so than if American capitalists were providing our oil supplies. It is not a bad thing that we get most of our oil from foreign sources.

    88. Re:Bull by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2, Funny

      This is somewhat true.

      We are out of $30 a barrel oil. Some other countries still have $10 a barrel oil.\

      However, oil takes on the price of the most expensive barrel pumped and sold.

      The U.S. has a ton of oil that would take about $90 a barrel to get out.

      And other alternatives at $90 to $100 a barrel equivalent price.

      Still, population is getting too high. Ocean fishing areas are out and out collapsing (not fishable-- doesn't mean lifeless- would recover completely in 20-30 years if fishing was banned in those areas).
      Same for grains.

      But.. we can choose to exist at much leaner levels of existence. A tiny percentage at the top will live well while most live on food of low nutritional value that is a bit tasteless. There will be various problems (celiac disease, possibly autism, other nutritional issues) but the deer over breeding where we all die off quickly is probably 40-50 years away. At that point, one little war and billions will die.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    89. Re:Bull by b4upoo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Oil shales and oil sands are a disaster to the environment. Nothing could be more destructive to the environment than the massive strip mining it would take to recover that kind of oil.
                              Coal is so nasty that all use of coal should be illegal and reason to kill off any nation allowing its use. If you burn coal you will saturate the soil with mercury among other things.
                              And you fail to take into account such issues as running out of drinking water. Frankly water could get so expensive that the price of food will exceed your ability to purchase it.
                              There is simply no way to keep going without some deeply radical changes even if they ruin your expectations in life.

    90. Re:Bull by hottyson · · Score: 0

      Maybe not made out of people but the masses are being trained to eat easy to produce food alternatives just as the cattle have been. Already, US citizens have been trained to consume mass quantities of corn. It can be found in just about everything that they eat. Sure there are side effects such as obesity, cancer, diabetes, and heart disease. However, think of the huge populations that the planet will have. These alternative food sources can support the population with the only cost being poor health.

    91. Re:Bull by Money+for+Nothin' · · Score: 2, Interesting

      This is where regulation meets the marketplace, and how proper regulations and policies can work together with market forces to drive sustainability. But, it does require forces outside the market (such as government regulation) to internalize those costs so that they get accounted for up front.

      I agreed with you until you used the word "require". A free-market does not require a strictly-outside force to enforce internalization of externality costs, at least in theory.

      Example: An externality of oil-discovery are accidents in the Gulf Coast, which result in billions of dollars in damages. If there is sufficient demand-side desire not to have such accidents occur, then suppliers will go to sufficient lengths to prevent them from happening, however desirable they may be for the purpose of profitability.

      Now, of course, in practice you have vast information asymmetries (who outside of the supplier's management and engineering staff are aware of the firm's operational effectiveness & safety?), which such firms are happy to exploit (as BP did). And you have vast dry-gulches of long-term thinking; relatively-few people truly care enough about where their oil comes-from to care enough to check on firms' operational effectiveness, *even if* the transparency existed to do so. (I may be overly-pessimistic on this point though -- after all, how many people waste countless hours following each other's dinner plans on Twitter??)

      In practice, you're right, and I fully agree with you; careful regulations can force externality internalization. The real trouble, then, is getting politicians to craft such legislation. The reality, unfortunately, is that their heads are up their asses and are corrupt beyond any possibility of usefulness. There are (many) days when I think we would be better-off with less regulation, and in its place, a vastly-expanded set of demand-side reporting/watchdog services (like Consumer Reports), as well as a cultural rejigger in which people return to voicing demand-side power, in the form of strikes, boycotts, and the like. (Of course, the problem with this libertarian idea is the cultural shift. That can't seriously happen until failures arise even more-catastrophic than the financial near-collapse of 2008, and even then, we're more-likely to go in the opposite direction anyway, towards more regulation...)

      A fuel tax (Pigouvian tax) seems to me one of the most-sensible taxes, *assuming* (and with politicians, this is an enormous assumption) the taxed money is spent 100% on things that accelerates our adoption of renewable energy sources (wind, solar, tidal electricity, electric cars, etc.). Cap-and-trade never ought to have died in U.S. Congress. But, the trouble with real-world politics is that all of these sensible ideas that moderate economists create is that government cannot implement them unless:

      1) voters become sensible (and regarding that likelihood, read Bryan Caplan's "The Myth of the Rational Voter")
      2) you institute a non-democratic government, in which supposedly-wise technocrats make decisions without a care for what the rest of the public wants. For an historical example, see Soviet Russia, or for a less-extreme example, modern-day Singapore.

      In the end, nobody and nothing works. Those of us under the age of 60 are pretty much all fucked -- by the threat of economic collapse, by global warming, by the threat of nuclear terrorism (or mere human error in the presence of nuclear weapons), by resource misuse and/or misallocation, and, so long as we are alive in the developed world, by the growth and modernization of the 1/3 of the world's populace that has heretofore lived in squalor (India and China) that feeds those population's acceptance of worsening work environments arising out of increased competition due to increased populations in the markets served -- regardless of whether we have a free-market or socialist or thoroughly-mixed economy, and regardless of whether we have a democratically-elected government.

    92. Re:Bull by c0lo · · Score: 4, Informative

      Right now, "Global Warming" is a 2 factor beast-- the consumption of energy resources produces a biproduct that is energy intensive to recycle by mother nature, which also has the added effect of reducing the rate at which the earth expels waste heat into space. This has the net effect of causing the earth to heat up.

      That's BS - the second "byproduct heat" is negligible. Computations on the back of a napkin:

      • the power the world currenlty consumes = 15 TW. Assuming a 20% efficiency in producing electicity results in 75 TW of heat being produced (15 TW goes in electricity which, consumed, generates all-heat, 60 TW is directly heat only and lost - assume all electricity via thermal).
      • the solar constant - I'll take the minimum of 1.321 kW/m. With an Earth radius of 6371 km, results a value for incoming EM radiation from Sun of 168449 TW.
      • Part of the 168449 is "captured" by the plants. The photosynthetic efficiency is somewhere around 11%. Assuming all the Earth surface is used by plants which perform photosynthesis at maximum efficiency, still results in an excess of 153288 TW which the Earth "dissipates" back in space.

      Result: the heat created by the humans is at most 0.04% of what the Earth dissipates into space naturally.

      --
      Questions raise, answers kill. Raise questions to stay alive.
    93. Re:Bull by Lotana · · Score: 1

      You are right. Water shortages are more tricky than power and will give us trouble much sooner.

      Worst comes to worst: If you got power, you can go desalination. If you got no water and overly expensive power, then you have to really hope that your waterways are not too polluted. Yeah... Fat chance. A lot of cities will become uninhabitable and abandoned very quickly.

    94. Re:Bull by mcornelius · · Score: 1, Informative

      Keeping the air clean is a transaction, though (or rather a series of transactions). It requires exchanges of value (trade-offs). The positive and negative in externalities is not about some perceived social value; in that sense, economics, like any other serious scientific discipline, is value free. (Well, unless you're Paul Krugman.)

      Using the word transaction was probably not the best; in economics, it has a meaning different from its common use.

      From the Wikipedia article, you cited:

      In economics, an externality (or transaction spillover) is a cost or benefit, not transmitted through prices[1], incurred by a party who did not agree to the action causing the cost or benefit.

      The negative in negative externality is not a value judgment in the sense of moral or ethical values (for which economics, like any scientific discipline, has none), but an assessment of increased cost (including lost profit or lost potential profit) from an action to which you are not party. A positive externality is decreased cost or increased profit from an action to which you are not party.

      Some examples:
      1) I run a café and someone just saw the Virgin Mary in a piece of toast, and now my café is full every day for three weeks; my positive externality is my competitors' negative externality.

      2) The pious Marians in the previous example crowd out my regular customers and once they're gone, some of my previous regulars don't return, a positive externality for my competitors.

      While the same action does not always have positive and negative externalities, and they do not in any sense balance, the same action, decision, or market influence can act as both a negative and positive externality.

      Because of the political process though, the factory operator does not have control over the decision to pollute certain substances; he was not given that decision: the very definition of an externality; it most definitely is an increased cost and therefore a negative externality for him. I'm not saying he should have that decision; I'm saying he doesn't have the decision. It is external to him.

    95. Re:Bull by benjamindees · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You can't possibly be criticizing "dependence on a market". You have completely failed to understand it.

      There is absolutely no reason for anyone who sees the writing on the wall to experience any pain whatsoever. The people who "see the supply shock far enough in advance" serve an important market function, as "speculators". And in a functional market, these people can save, reduce their own consumption, stock up on limited resources instead, and earn huge profits in reward. They also can earn huge losses if they bet wrong.

      The hilarious irony of your and the GP posts is that we have already seen drastic supply shocks in the oil markets. The last one, in 2008, did bring almost every single economy to it's knees. Oil tripled in price in the span of a few years. It caused double-digit inflation in the US. People who couldn't afford to heat their giant homes or gas up their giant SUVs completely depleted the money markets in just a few months and destroyed the banks that had lent them money for such stupid 'investments' in the first place.

      But was that just a test? Prices have gone down. The world isn't out of oil yet. If it was a test, the US failed it.

      What did our leaders do? Instead of thanking speculators for ensuring that we had any oil at all, they trotted out tired old collectivist anti-market bullshit, attacked speculators, subsidized failed banks, nationalized 95% of the mortgages in the US, robbed from savers and destroyed assets in an attempt at African-engineering the global economy in order to encourage not more savings, not conservation, not an inkling of responsibility or even more production, but more idiotic consumption that will be paid for by future generations.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    96. Re:Bull by mysidia · · Score: 1

      It doesn't account for availability and/or sustainability, and was never intended to do so.

      When availability is significantly reduced, the price increases.

      The second law of thermodynamics already has informed us that nothing is indefinitely sustainable, because entropy never decreases, and there is no such thing as 100% efficiency.

      But as availability is reduced, supply is proportionally reduced, leading to gradual increase in price, which applies pressure, for industry and consumers of the resource to become more efficient, so they improve their financial outlook.

      As efficiency increases, demand is reduced, and the duration of temporary sustainability is extended, possibly by orders of magnitude in duration.

    97. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Very good points. I would like to add that switching to more efficient energy sources will drastically reduce waste heat, so in that regard technology can be very helpful. Average efficiency of internal combustion engines is about 18-20%, and coal power plants average 31% efficient. That means about 70-80% of all energy from fossil fuels is being wasted as heat, contributing directly to global warming. Energy sources such as solar and wind have little to no waste heat, as they do not consume stored energy.

      From a waste heat perspective, energy sources such as wind and solar are the only viable long term options. They would also drastically reduce humankind's reliance upon non-renewable resources.

    98. Re:Bull by clydemaxwell · · Score: 1

      our rate of response is far too slow to correct the issue..
      instead of iPads, you need to NOT be spending hundreds of dollars on luxury electronics which cost our planet dearly to make
      even considering starting offworld colonies shows that you're completely cut off from reality.. the costs to our society and planet would be far too massive. the only thing that will ever work is massive cultural change, BEFORE it's too late.
      of course, this will never happen. and it may already be too late.

      --
      Browsing with classic discussion, noscript, at -1 and nested
      no hidden comments and I only mod UP
    99. Re:Bull by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "This is where regulation meets the marketplace, and how proper regulations and policies can work together with market forces to drive sustainability. But, it does require forces outside the market (such as government regulation) to internalize those costs so that they get accounted for up front."

      I agree with your post and am not picking on you personally but what a great deal of people do not understand is that the "market" is a set of rules that governs trade, ie: "The market" is a set of regulations and everyone is "free" to buy/sell/barter within those regulations.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    100. Re:Bull by Shihar · · Score: 1

      These projections are bunk. Every Malthusian since, well, Malthus, has predicted the end of resources, and they have all been wrong. I'm not saying that there are not challenges ahead, but these predictions are trite and all based upon the idea that humans are just going to plow forward doing exactly what they have always been doing. This is clearly crap. We change our consumption patterns, discover new resources, recycle old ones, and in general are horribly unpredictable over the timescale of a decade, much less decades or centuries.

      Resources are recyclable. Anything not shoved into a nuclear isn't going to ever be really 'used'. There is no shortage of matter on earth to make stuff with. We are not going to run out of matter. At most, it is just going to become more expensive for some kinds. Food is easily scalable. We waste horrific amounts of food with a bad transportation system and by feeding livestock. Supermarkets dumped amazing amounts of food just to cater to our finicky tastes, and a massive amount of food production goes over to feeding cattle. Both practices I am going to go out on a limb and say we would abort before we starved. That doesn't even being to take into account new technology that will allow for more production with less. As far as energy, there is a big fucking ball of fusion in the sky, lots of stuff laying around to do a little fission, and at least in the US, gobs of coal to burn. We are not going to run out.

      I don't want to downplay the environmental challenges we face. There are real environmental challenges. The developing world in particular has to grapple with some serious questions about how they want to balance development and pollution. We do need to watch what levers we are slamming in regards to the climate, and we might even need to think about how the fuck we are going to decide where to set the world thermostat if it comes down to it. That said, humanity isn't doomed. We are not going to slide backwards. There is going to be no mass starvation in any place except where the government is too fucked and corrupt up to function for the benefit of the people. Technology isn't going to vanish.

      Predicting the end of the world every year for the past millennium has to be getting dull and old. The only people with a more consistent record of being wrong about the end of the world than Malthusians are religious cults... and even then, cults tend to break up after the world fails to end a few times. Malthusians on the other hand are utterly relentless in seeing the end being just around the corner, finding themselves completely wrong, and making the same prediction around the next corner. Get over it.

    101. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The whole theory of externalities is bullshit because it's not possible to know all possible future negative effects beforehand, nor is it possible to assign any kind of rational or logical dollar value to those effects once they are known.

      If I need firewood, I can chop down a tree. The negative externalities are a combination of less oxygen produced by the now-dead tree, and carbon released into the atmosphere. Well, if this tree could have either been struck by lightning the next day and caught fire, producing almost all the exact same negative externalities, or it could have been cut down by a beaver, or aged another 100 years, fallen into a peat bog, and become fossil fuel 10 million years from now. There's no way to know, and there's no way to assign dollar values that make any sense in the real world to any of these outcomes. You can charge me a $5 tree chopping tax, but all that does is hurt the middle and lower class people that live in the woods and are trying to save money on heating, while richer people can ignore the tax completely and pass the increased cost of doing business onto the consumer, economies of scale being what it is.

      It really is the fucking stupidest concept to gain wide acceptance in my recent memory.

    102. Re:Bull by aliquis · · Score: 1

      It's the definition. Think what you want about it.

    103. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's going to take an alien invasion or the uprising of the machines for the human population to go down and thus not have so much stress on the planet. Hell the planet has been trying to kill us since the beginning with diseases, we just got so adept at curing what ails us that we have too many long lived people.

    104. Re:Bull by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      (not fishable-- doesn't mean lifeless- would recover completely in 20-30 years if fishing was banned in those areas).

      It wouldn't even take that long. Take a look at some graphs of the fishing stocks before and after WW2....

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    105. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Third world countries in many parts of the world are in fact starving already. Have been for a while, if you hadn't heard. That starving will spread over time as water runs short and arable land becomes more scarce due to climate change and human depletion.

      But don't worry, for a long time it will just be poor brown and black people that you don't have to see living in places you'll never go to. You'll be safe in your first world bubble until the end. Keep up that denial.

    106. Re:Bull by Silvrmane · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Autism is a nutritional issue now?

    107. Re:Bull by mysidia · · Score: 1

      Result: the heat created by the humans is at most 0.04% of what the Earth dissipates into space naturally

      I wonder if this takes into account the heat produced by the human population's biological processes, such as digestion of food.

      And heat produced by biological processes of pets and livestock farmed to feed humans

    108. Re:Bull by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "If that statement were true, we'd be starving (needing 1.5 earths to survive). Clearly the fellow has no idea what he's talking about."

      If you're serious then clearly you're unfamiliar with the concept of buffer's.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    109. Re:Bull by mysidia · · Score: 1

      Speaking of which, two /8s were just allocated to the APNIC RIR tonight. Take a look at the /8s that have been allocated this year. For the first time ever, the number of IP addresses allocated to RIRs now exceeds the total number of IP addresses remaining, meaning the number of IPs in the IANA pool has dropped by more than 50% this year, and 2010 is not actually over yet.

      .. and we've run out of ipv4 addresses "in about a year" for the last decade or so..

      Maybe you've been listening to too many different people's "one year" predictions too much, at different times, or something. However, the potaroo IPv4 report has been very consistent with the Jun-Jul 2011 IANA exhaustion prediction and Spring 2012 RIR exchaustion prediction. In 2010 it has predicted those dates, back in 2009 and 2008, it was still predicting 2011

      Your contention that the runout date is always being moved to "next year" does not hold water.

    110. Re:Bull by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      I don't understand the (mainly US-centric) vitriol against Malthus, his theory is mathematically sound and easy to comprehend, it does not say circumstances WON'T change, it says you can accurately predict the extinction of a population if (and only if) circumstances DON'T change.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    111. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the energy and resources that go into mass producing a new platform outweigh any energy savings that may be recouped by using the new "lighter" platform for many years
      computers & cars
      especially cars with massive lithium batteries

    112. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      United States oil production is deceptive, and it's rather meaningless to look at a chart of our production and say the US has hit peak oil.

      The US made a deliberate decision, ironically enough, to rely on foreign production to fulfill our ordinary requirements. The idea being to preserve the supply of easily accessible domestic oil to keep our tanks rolling if the Soviets came through the Fulda Gap. Though the Soviets may be gone, that posture hasn't actually changed.

      Take US domestic figures with a grain of weltpolitik.

    113. Re:Bull by c0lo · · Score: 1

      Result: the heat created by the humans is at most 0.04% of what the Earth dissipates into space naturally

      I wonder if this takes into account the heat produced by the human population's biological processes, such as digestion of food.

      And heat produced by biological processes of pets and livestock farmed to feed humans

      Are you (or your pets) eating food that is Mb>millions of years past the expiration date?

      If not, and since what you dissipate now comes from what we eat, the most is included in the 11 % of energy not dissipated by Earth last year (and, in smaller proportion as you go further in the past, 2 years, 3 years and so on. I reckon that the proportion contributed by a crop 10 years back is already too negligible).

      --
      Questions raise, answers kill. Raise questions to stay alive.
    114. Re:Bull by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      I don't think the reason matters for whether something has peaked or not.

      Of course the US could ramp back up production, but if they never do and instead trickle it out is there any difference?

    115. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You did? Funny, I could have sworn that the US still has the worlds largest supply of oil shale.

      They certainly have the largest supply of oil shills.

    116. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Increasing efficiency and sourcing energy from solar/wind are extremely important...

      However even if the energy issues were totally resolved huge issues related to land (mis)use - rapid species extinction, side effects of modern agricultural practices (genetic diversity, nitrogen loading..etc) would unfortunatly remain.

    117. Re:Bull by uninformedLuddite · · Score: 1

      To most people, "peak oil" is the point at which production is at a peak. After this point, a country (or the world) is _producing_ less then they used to.

      I was always under the impression that peak oil was when demand outstripped supply regardless of the amount actually being pulled out of the ground. If they keep shutting down refineries in the US you might get to see it first.

      --
      The new right fascists are bilingual. They speak English and Bullshit.
    118. Re:Bull by uninformedLuddite · · Score: 1

      Yeah but this is the USA. Do it in a national park not many people will care

      --
      The new right fascists are bilingual. They speak English and Bullshit.
    119. Re:Bull by khallow · · Score: 1

      it says you can accurately predict the extinction of a population if (and only if) circumstances DON'T change.

      IF. That's the crux of the complaints against Malthus. Circumstances change by routine when you speak of human societies.

    120. Re:Bull by horos2c · · Score: 1

      who the hell moderated this comment as +5 funny? Everything in it rings true, especially the part about coal and mercury (one of the reasons, btw, for the rise in autism)

    121. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      The biproduct that the grandparent mentions isn't waste heat - it's the carbon dioxide. The reduced rate of heat being expelled is due to the extra absorbtion of heat on the way out by the additional carbon dioxide (the "greenhouse" effect). Nothing to do with the heat produced by burning.

    122. Re:Bull by Jeppe+Salvesen · · Score: 1

      Coal is relatively plentiful. An estimated 56 years is a long time to our current system.

      I doubt we'll be forced out of our hydrocarbon dependency in a long time. By then, it'll be too late. Depending upon natural limits is a poor strategy anyhow - once we hit those limits, it may be too late because hitting the limit may limit the overall production (by humans or by nature, that devil is hiding in the details, sniggering).

      --

      Stop the brainwash

    123. Re:Bull by khallow · · Score: 1

      uh, supply and demand is truly only to account for price. It doesn't account for availability and/or sustainability, and was never intended to do so.

      Supply and demand is an economic model which does account for availability and sustainability because those are merely changes in future supply.

    124. Re:Bull by VShael · · Score: 3, Informative

      Israel can grow crops with water amounts that makes everybody else blush with embarrassment.

      Have they started using Palestinian blood then?

      Israeli propaganda aside, you have to remember that Israel makes a practice of annexing orchards, houses, farms, etc.. and that's hardly a model for self-sufficiency. Not every nation in the world can demand lebensraum.

      Israel diverts all of Palestinian Jordan River water and 87% of Palestinian ground water to the state of Israel proper and the illegal Jewish settlers. The remaining 13% of Palestinian ground water is distributed back to 2.5 million Palestinians living in the West Bank.

      Israel cuts off Palestinian access to water by destroying wells (Between 2000 and mid-2006, Israel destroyed 244 of Gaza's wells and destroyed 6.2 miles of culinary water lines); destroying all Palestinian pumps and ditches accessing the Jordan River; destroying cisterns and irrigation systems; preventing the construction of new water infrastructure; preventing the repair of out-dated infrastructure; preventing Palestinians from drilling new wells; and hindering access through 'security measures' such as roadblocks, closures, checkpoints, and the wall.

      The route of Israel's security wall delineates the eastern boundary of high groundwater production from the Western Aquifer. The wall fences those areas of high water production into Israel, closing off Palestinian access to more than 95% of their groundwater resources, over 630 million cubic meters of water per year.

      Since 1967, not one permit has been granted for the drilling of new Palestinian controlled wells in the largest and most productive of all the aquifer basins, the Western Aquifer.

      Palestinians pay from four to twenty times more for water than Jewish settlers pay, but are restricted to 10 to 60 liters of water per day, less than the 100 liters-per-day minimum standard set by the World Health Organization. Jewish settlers enjoy from 274 to 450 liters of water per day.

      Five thousand Jewish settlers living in the Jordan Valley consume the equivalent of 75% of the water used by the entire West Bank population of over 2.5 million Palestinians.

      Crops grown in the fertile Jordan Valley of the West Bank, are grown in Israeli settlements on Palestinian territory.
      http://bdsmovement.net/?q=node/519

      The Israeli military shoots unarmed farmers
      http://palsolidarity.org/2010/06/12759/

      30% of Gaza's arable farmland, and some of it's most fertile, lies within the 'buffer zone'.
      Farmers attempting to cultivate land in the 'buffer zone' are routinely met with barrages of live ammunition and occasional artillery shells.

      Since 2007 Israel has also banned Gazan farmers from selling their crops abroad, where they might compete with Israeli produce
      http://electronicintifada.net/v2/article11414.shtml
      They are also facing further restrictions on the types and amounts of products they can grow.

      Palestinians must obtain permits from Israel to grow crops. Permits are granted based on whether Palestinian crops compete with Israeli agricultural production.
      http://icahdusa.org/download/10

    125. Re:Bull by BlackCreek · · Score: 1

      Precisely. These kind of projections invariably fail to take into account even the most basic ideas about supply and demand. As we begin to run lower on a given resource it becomes increasingly more viable to recycle it or look for alternatives.

      A bunch of hungry economists locked up in a cellar will not create sandwiches out of thin air. When economy meets laws of physics, guess who wins?

    126. Re:Bull by khallow · · Score: 1

      However even if the energy issues were totally resolved huge issues related to land (mis)use - rapid species extinction, side effects of modern agricultural practices (genetic diversity, nitrogen loading..etc) would unfortunatly remain.

      You haven't mentioned any "huge issues" yet. And outsourcing human civilization to space fixes the lesser issues you mention.

    127. Re:Bull by Alioth · · Score: 3, Informative

      It's not about *quantity* of oil it's about *rate*. A lot of naysayers seem to think that shale and tar sands are just like Texas sweet crude, stick a straw in it and out it comes, but it's not. Shale is basically rock. It costs a lot of money and takes a lot of effort to get oil out of this shale, and when you do, you just can't extract it at a very high rate.

      If you had infinite oil it wouldn't matter one bit if you could not extract it at a sufficient rate to feed the consumers of this oil.

      To contrast the *rate* at which you can extract oil from tar sands and other euphemistically named "unconventional sources", consider this. The entirety of Canada's tar sands, with something like 1.7 trillion barrels of proven reserves, after decades of investment is producing at a rate less than Mexico's Cantarell field did at its peak. Cantarell field is just *0.1%* of the size. 1/1000th of the size.

      Extracting from shales and tar sands is also highly polluting and energy intensive. For each barrel of oil energy you invest in, say, Saudi Arabia, you get about 30 barrels of oil back. For Canadian tar sands, one barrel of oil's worth of energy only yields 3 to 6 barrels of production. Shale is likely to be a lot lower if it can even make the break even point at all. If it can't break even there's no point even mining for it.

    128. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      (when gasoline hits $5/gal in the US, odds are excellent that we'll all be driving less)

      Didn't we say that about $3/gal too?

      http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/flowchart/2008/3/7/the-repercussions-of-4-gas.html

      Just a few years ago, auto-industry futurists thought that $3 gas would be a game-changer, unnerving consumers and forcing dramatic changes in their choice of cars and driving behavior.

      That article's also a halfway decent read by the way.

      Gas is pretty bad now, but it's been worse and we still consume quite a bit.

      Highest Recorded Average Price:
      Regular Unl. $4.114 7/17/2008
      DSL. $4.845 7/17/2008

      Saying we'll consume less when we hit $x/gal is absolute bull-hockey. We'll continue to drive as much as we always have until an alternative becomes cheaper (electric if we get cheaper power ie nuclear? excellent public transportation maybe?) or until we literally *cannot* drive.

    129. Re:Bull by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      Socio economic collapse and conflict are now inevitable. Governments are still managing their economies upon a growth rather than than a sustainability basis. The rich and greedy are still idolised for the ability to waste an insane amount of the planet's resources upon themselves along with generating an obscene quantity of pollution.

      We as a society still waste enormous quantities of resources of vapid consumerist waste like jewellery, cosmetics, sports, empty mass media drivel and a whole swath of absurd egoist luxury items.

      Africa will become the resource battle ground (accurate description) with the US and Asia struggling over it. Other countries with low population and high resources with seek to separate themselves from the rest of the world to preserve their quality of life. South America will form a stronger union and throw of the yoke of US corporate imperialism even Columbia will finally be free (which will help to drive the push on Africa).

      Basically until the psychopaths and narcissists are removed from positions of control, governance and influence, humanity will continue upon an insane path of self destruction. Of course computer geeks would take the world in a more sustainable direction, virtual reality (it allows extreme indulgences without resource waste and only generates minimal pollution) and, well, safe happy drugs (especially in conjunction with virtual reality) it makes much more environmental sense than trying to buy your way to happiness.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    130. Re:Bull by ikkonoishi · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      A large part of the reason we need to drill in such deep water is not because oil is not available in shallow waters, but because of restrictive legislation. I don't think that companies should be given carte blanche to drill anywhere, but a serious effort needs to be made to allow the safe exploitation of whatever resources may be of benefit to us.

    131. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're not quite understanding the peak oil thing. It's a diminishing returns problem, not a question of pure quantity. Essentially, from here on out, it gets more and more expensive, all other things being equal, to extract the oil.

      A good example of this sort of problem has happened before. Once upon a time, copper was pretty cheap and plentiful. There were rich ores all over the place right at the surface of the earth that you didn't even need to dig for. It was one of the first metals that humans exploited, and we had a copper age and a bronze age where copper was the primary useful metal. Cut to today, and all of those easy surface deposits are gone and, to keep up with modern demand, we have to do a lot of heavy digging for the stuff. There's still massive amounts to be had. We've only scratched the amount available in the earth, but we've picked all the low hanging fruit.

      The same is true of oil. There's plenty to be had. In the places we've looked already, there are probably plenty more oil fields, but most experts are pretty certain we're not going to be finding too many more really huge ones. Under the oceans, there are probably plenty of oil fields as rich or richer than any we've exploited so far on land or in our shallow coastal drilling, but they require a lot more work, money, technology and danger than the ones we've used so far. The wells in the existing oil fields aren't dry, but they take more and more work to extract less and less oil, they're not like a gas tank where the flow rate is pretty much the same up until it runs empty. Oil shales and oil sands and other bituminous deposits are a huge resource, but once again require a lot more work to extract. You can't just pipe them out of the ground, brew them up a little and throw them in a gas tank. Plus, the waste byproducts of the processing are pretty bad and have to be kept in large toxic lakes where the really harmful stuff settles out over periods of hundreds of years. Just like the one that broke open in Hungary not too long ago and killed several people and left a large area probably unlivable for at least a decade or so.

      Any natural resource that isn't replenished as fast as you use it is eventually going to dwindle. Just because there's a surplus now doesn't mean it will last as long as you consistently use more than is being produced for long enough. So, the cost goes up and up. Think about it this way, if you had to work twice as many hours as you do now just to survive, could you? Probably. Three times as many and you'd be around the threshold where you simply couldn't manage to survive. If you had to work four times as long, you might be able to make it a week, or that might actually be more time than you even have.

      Anyway, the point is, resource management is seldom as simple as "we have this much X". There's a lot more logistics involved just to manage the cost. Then there's an entire other layer of economics to take care of the price.

    132. Re:Bull by Darkman,+Walkin+Dude · · Score: 1

      Running the engine raises the temperature of the cold source, or heat sink.

      Yes, but by how much? If you had a 99% efficient thermoelectric engine, which is theoretically possible as far as I'm aware, wouldn't that mean that the temperature of the cold sink would increase very slowly or by tiny incremements?

    133. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Oh don't be such an utter tool. I'm sorry, this one just gets to me when people are just repeating a big lie without even bothering to check their sources. The one you're repeating is the one that was making the rounds when the Deepwater Horizon was making the news and various talking heads were desperately spinning things to make it the fault of the greenies who forced the poor old oil companies into such deep waters. Please, please just take a look online for a map of the gulf of Mexico and the nearly 4,000 oil wells there. Note that, yes, there is an area right offshore where, for the most part, there are no wells due to legislation, but otherwise, it should be obvious that the problem forcing drilling out into deep water isn't legislation, it's saturation. If you can seriously show me a law that forces drilling really far out rather than just not right offshore I will be very impressed. Otherwise I'll thank you to stop spewing that right-wing, we're so persecuted by the evil lefties masturbatory fantasy.

    134. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We already pay more than $5/gal in Sweden and no sign of less driving.

    135. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're missing the point that the population is increasing, but also that more and more segments of that increasing population are using more and more resources. So, even if the same amount of already mined copper is out there, there's less and less for each individual.

    136. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I also have no doubt that society will adapt. The only reason technology couldn't save us is if we don't invent it. Look at our history. Walking takes too long and can't cover enough distance fast enough, domesticate a horse and ride it. Need to move more stuff than will fit on a horse? Invent a wagon. That still too slow? How bout a train? Train doesn't go where you need it? Cars and roads. There is a reason we are at the top of the food chain. We are a highly adaptive species, and good at problem solving. Not to mention we have the ability to imagine ways to build devices to solve those problems. Tool use and modification is a powerful skill. Its no coincidence that the only species that can make tools ended up in charge. And I don't just mean making tools like picking up a stick to jab it into a beehive in order to get honey. I mean taking that same stick and imagining how to make it into a hammer, or an arrow, or designing an entire game called baseball. Civilizations and political structures may come and go, but as a species, we will adapt and continue on. That being said, I will be the first in line to colonize our new planet. Just show me where it is and how to get there. And maybe send some movies and stuff over every once in a while. I imagine a new planet would get pretty boring for the first few generations til the infrastructure got established.

    137. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh yeah and the container ships drive a little less and get replaced by what and the planes fly a little less and get replaced by what and the farming machinery and pesticides will do a little less and gets replaced by what....

    138. Re:Bull by The+Mighty+Buzzard · · Score: 1

      Not actually true. We could absolutely spank the hell out of the previous peak if it was financially worthwhile. It simply costs far more time and money to produce oil in the US than it does in most of the world. Part of the reason is location, part of it is hippies. Blame whichever your political leanings are more comfortable with.

      --
      Violence is like duct tape. If it doesn't solve the problem, you didn't use enough.
    139. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When people start screeming the day after tomorrow it's like your mom sitting shootgun telling you on the freeway, that unless you slow down immediately the car is going to crash into a tree in 3 hours assuming you continue on a straight course with constant velocity.

      We adapt to shortages and dwindling supplies when they start to become relevant. So what if our resource usage is going up? It does this because it can, and once we reach critical consumption, we will simply start to improve our quality gained from a limited consumption, instead of focusing on developing more efficient ways to mine for minerals or extract oil.

    140. Re:Bull by ultranova · · Score: 2, Informative

      A bunch of hungry economists locked up in a cellar will not create sandwiches out of thin air.

      The cellar doesn't have a government, thus a true free market solution can arise: the strongest economist slaughters and eats the rest one by one, preferably with good red wine - this is wine cellar, right? It would be barbarous to expect such civilized people to resort to cannibalism without wine.

      This proves, once again, that the true nature of humanity can only be realized when the weak are not coddled by the socialistic monopoly on violence, but are required to be personally responsible for their own well-being.

      When economy meets laws of physics, guess who wins?

      According to the documentary "Atlas Shrugged", the only reason we don't have perpetual motion generators yet is because the horrible, oppressive persecution the rich and the powerful face in our society has forced them to withdraw from society. We are all going to die horribly, and deserve it for daring to tax CEOs.

      Based on this, I theorize that if people make high enough offers for a single piece of bread I have, it should magically multiply and feed them all. Any opening bids? Come on, people: let's overcome world hunger through inflation!

      I also wonder if the system could be automated. If I were to run two programs that constantly bid over the gasoline in my car's tank, would it refil by itself? And would the computer running these programs need to be physically present in the car, or could I run it on my home computer, violating thermodynamics on the background whenever I used my computer? And, coming to think of it, I could power the computer itself the same way! And I could even arrange cooling without fans through some kind of "heat credit" system!

      All problems go away if you simply ignore them or insist that they were caused by government regulation. Rayndonomics - what a fascinating new branch of science!

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    141. Re:Bull by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      Though the Soviets may be gone, that posture hasn't actually changed

      And now it actually makes more sense. Oil prices are going to keep going up for the foreseeable future - basically, until we have some other form of energy production that is so cheap that we can create oil from carbon dioxide and water, or until large amounts of land / sea are covered with genetically engineered algae. The oil in the ground in the USA is a stockpile. While oil is cheap, it makes sense to buy it from abroad. When it becomes so expensive that you have to switch to something else, the USA has a reserve of cheap oil that can be used to provide some time for the change, or which can be sold (at a very high price) to other countries that are late in the switch.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    142. Re:Bull by Thundersnatch · · Score: 1

      solar cells will drop in price as demand increases

      You didn't do very well in high-school Economics, did you?

    143. Re:Bull by Talla · · Score: 1

      Of course, the fishing will end when there is no more fish to catch. Unfortunately, when this has happened in more local areas the stock has taken 20-40 years to recover, or not recovered at all (like some species of whale). In the mean time we will have to stop eating fish completely, which most likely means overtaxing other resources even more.

    144. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not actually true. We could absolutely spank the hell out of the previous peak if it was financially worthwhile. It simply costs far more time and money to produce oil in the US than it does in most of the world. Part of the reason is location, part of it is hippies.

      This is false. Yes, the easily-accessible stuff is gone, but even if we were to extract every remaining drop from the remaining hard-to-get sources, it is not enough to offset the depletion of currently active fields.

      The peak is irrevocably passed in the USA - we will never produce as much oil again no matter what we do. Meanwhile, the demand continues to grow.

    145. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What about the oil runs out before all natural resources can get used up?
      Can solar panels be produced without oil? At first the workers in the plant need to travel there by electric bus/car/train, as well as all the raw materials and finally the products out. Same for all other modern production sites. Ok cool - then all motorized transportation has to be replaced by electric. Sure - do we have enough oil to do that?

    146. Re:Bull by c6gunner · · Score: 2, Insightful

      No, it's not a good analogy. We can ramp up nuclear any time we choose.

      And we can ramp up oil any time we choose. If you're going to ignore the fiscal and political implications of ramping up nuclear plant construction, I can just as easily ignore the fiscal implications of ramping up oil production.

    147. Re:Bull by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      *shrug* Ok, but if you actually informed people that "the definition" of peak oil is "when we decided to get it from overseas instead", you wouldn't be able to get away with all the fear-mongering that's attached to that term.

    148. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not actually true. We could absolutely spank the hell out of the previous peak if it was financially worthwhile. It simply costs far more time and money to produce oil in the US than it does in most of the world.

      When you say "not true" you actually aren't disagreeing with Master Control. You might want to reread his last sentence, and pay particular attention to the "initial easily accessible" part.

    149. Re:Bull by x2A · · Score: 1

      "We as a society still waste enormous quantities of resources"

      We do, and most people don't really seem to connect the consequences... a few unnecessary lights on or a few extra things into the landfill, there's plenty more where they came from. You just can't drill into some people that there's a price attached to everything, and in the west if we get something cheap, it's usually because somebody's suffering somewhere to make it that way. See no evil, huh. I even save cpu cycles in my code for the sake of saving tiny bits of energy here and there!

      "South America will form a stronger union and throw of the yoke of US corporate imperialism even Columbia will finally be free"

      This... I am beginning to enjoy seeing, Venezuala's obviously a really important key player here, you can tell by how much America hates the place it's elected "dictator", and America tends not to have too stronger feelings against countries unless they're at risk of being able to stand on their own two feet and look after their own interests first rather than America's. I know, of course they have their fair share of problems, but if America would keep their *&@! nose out and stop causing trouble, these problems would be far fewer. But yeah, the guy gave Bolivia's president a lot of support, bought a big chunk (third I think?) of Argentina's debt to free them from the IMF, I have a lot of hope for that little chunk of the world. They're really fighting for their democracy, and they don't need to fight each other quite so much with that much bigger enemy to the north which unites them pretty well. Just sickens me to see so many people buying the propaganda.

      "safe happy drugs"

      I'll drink (or "something") to that!

      "it makes much more environmental sense than trying to buy your way to happiness"

      Yeah, and lets you appreciate things that money people just never really get. My last gf came from a pretty well off family. I think I'd rather be with someone who hasn't. People who have had to just make do (such as myself) seem to be more resourceful, can make things work with less, things that weren't meant for something, but combined to achieve it. And it seems to bleed out into other things, like sense of humour, becomes more resourceful in that same way.

      --
      The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
    150. Re:Bull by IWannaBeAnAC · · Score: 1

      That is astoundingly naive hubris.

      Yes, people will modify their behavior - when they are forced to because it isn't possible to buy fish anymore. It isn't a smooth transition: the fish stocks extrapolate to zero, and yeah most species probably wont actually hit zero and go extinct, but the timescale for the stock to recover (even assuming the optimistic case of no fishing at all, not even subsistence or black market) is decades. And that is assuming that the ecosystem would even allow a recovery. When fishing stocks get depleted, then this opens a niche that other animals currently of no use to humans can fill. We are seeing this already in some areas where animals that are not useful for human consumption such as jellyfish are blooming. It may be that we are making irreversible changes in the ecosystem, and perhaps we are invoking an age where jellyfish dominate sea life, rather than fish. Who knows, but it is absolute hubris to assume that "things will be OK". Humans will almost certainly survive, with some modified behavior, but that doesn't mean that everything will be "OK". It may be radically different from what we are familiar with.

    151. Re:Bull by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      These projections are bunk. Every Malthusian since, well, Malthus, has predicted the end of resources, and they have all been wrong.

      With respect, they have all been wrong, but they have all had the right idea. Nearly every nation in the world is buying food from the USA and we're not the cheapest so there must be a reason. Everyone buys food from China too even though they know it might be contaminated with Melamine. The reason is simple, these are the only nations really capable of producing large amounts of surplus food at this point. Most of the world's nations will experience severe dieoffs due to starvation in any scenario in which they cannot import food. We have used up this planet for the most part, except for portions of the Americas and China... and we're using them up as fast as we can. Where will we go after this?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    152. Re:Bull by Damek · · Score: 1

      Wow, if only more scientists had napkins on which to do quick, dismissive calculations, all our problems would be solved, or not even problems at all!

      Time for a "give a scientist a napkin" campaign. Who's with me?!

    153. Re:Bull by sourcerror · · Score: 1

      "This is most commonly extracted from seawater right now in the form of exotic deuterium, but widespread use of fusion would mean use of ordinary hydrogen; the most widely available source being water. Water is already a limited resource on this planet."

      However it would still last millions of years as fusion fuel. And then you still can go to the moon.

    154. Re:Bull by F34nor · · Score: 1

      Double bullshit, all you have is the fucking straw man argument, "Carter was once wrong so arguments about resource exhaustion are always wrong, lets go have a beer."

      http://www.veoh.com/browse/videos/category/activism_non_profit/watch/v20018168hpFeebj3

      It is only simple math.

    155. Re:Bull by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      I agree that coal use should be illegal in any country that wants to call itself civilized. It's just way too dirty compared to anything else, there's no excuse to be using it these days other than "it's cheap" and that's no excuse.

      I don't know about going to war over coal use, but it should get just as much attention as nuclear energy/weaponry.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    156. Re:Bull by d3ac0n · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Peak oil is due a dwindling amount of oil that can be economically extracted.

      The thing is, "economically extracted" is subjective term that changes as technology advances and we discover new cheap ways for extracting previously inaccessible oil. This is a process that has been going on for decades and will continue for decades more to come. Particularly since we haven't even yet exhausted all the sources of EASY to access oil yet. Most of the USA's oil is locked up in federal lands that the Eco-morons won't let us get at. Hopefully that will change over the next couple years, we shall see.

      Complex hydrocarbons are one of the most abundant resources in the universe. Switching away from them now, before we even have a viable replacement would be foolish. Especially if we do it as a response to hysteria and FUD.

      --
      Official Heretic from the "Church of Global Warming". Proven right thanks to whistle blowers. AGW = Flat Earth Theory
    157. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hmmm - seems to me that everything created on earth is pretty much still here in one form or another - with the exception of a few spacecraft and a couple of mars robots. We will simply invent new ways of converting what we have to what we need. In other words - new techs using new materials when the old materials become too costly to use.

    158. Re:Bull by Bertie · · Score: 1

      Millions of us - billions, even - ARE starving.

    159. Re:Bull by Ash+Vince · · Score: 1

      The hilarious irony of your and the GP posts is that we have already seen drastic supply shocks in the oil markets. The last one, in 2008, did bring almost every single economy to it's knees. Oil tripled in price in the span of a few years. It caused double-digit inflation in the US. People who couldn't afford to heat their giant homes or gas up their giant SUVs completely depleted the money markets in just a few months and destroyed the banks that had lent them money for such stupid 'investments' in the first place.

      Actually here in the UK it had very little effect. This is because we already taxed petroleum to such a high degree that the relative rise was somewhat small. The price certainly rose, but only by about 10-15%. The prices on this chart in the first column seem roughly accurate: http://www.speedlimit.org.uk/petrolprices.html

      Now I do remember the price rise in 2008, and I remember it pissed a lot of my colleagues off (I was lucky enough to be walking to work back then). It did not drive them to actually do anything like change cars (with one exception) or look for a job closer to where they lived. The only person I knew who bought a new more fuel efficient car could have walked to work in about 30 minutes.

      You might also notice from that chart that the price we now pay at the pump in the UK is far higher than it ever got to in 2008. To put into US figures, we currently pay an average of $8.50 per gallon at the pump for unleaded petrol. This shows it is not high petrol prices that cause problems, but its when prices rise too quickly for people and companies to budget for those rises in advance.

      We are also trying to massively cut government spending like everyone else. When the price of oil jumps like that again, it is quite possible that our government could cut the tax on it and actually keep pump prices the same. They would obviously not like to cope with the loss of revenue from doing this, but if the alternative was a significant recession that would also impact government taxation revenues it would be an option that you in the US do not have open.

      --
      I dont read /. to RTFA, I read /. to offend people in ignorance.
    160. Re:Bull by Darkness404 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Good luck finding people who support nuclear fission. Even though it is one of the safest, most economical, sources of power so called "green" activists will prevent us from building any more. Its becoming increasingly obvious that the environmentalist movement doesn't care about us being sustainable, but rather us living like we did 300 years ago.

      --
      Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
    161. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes we can, and are actively working towards them even as I type this.

      No we're not. The biggest problem is too many humans, and we're doing nothing to change that. When I went to elementary school I learned that there were 4.2 billion of us. Now I'm 41 (approaching the answer quickly :) and there are 6.8 billion of us. By the time I say goodbye to this plant there will be an expected 8 to 9 billion of us, *that* is the problem. All other problems we're facing in the next 20 years are caused by, and exasperated by, the number of humans on this single planet. So dream on about space flight, but remember, a hungry and thirsty population cannot sustain a space program, they'll be warring for the few resources left. And I'm not talking about consumer electronics fluff, I'm talking about the true basics: food and clean water.

      Obligatory quotes and references:

      "We're a virus with shoes"
      -- Bill Hicks

      "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
      -- Albert Bartlett

    162. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > And we can ramp up oil any time we choose.

      We can increase production above current levels, yes. We can't increase it to match prior levels. Which is what this is all about.

    163. Re:Bull by gorzek · · Score: 1

      Somebody please mod parent up. All this bitching about the definition of "peak oil" is beside the point, and the post above nails it perfectly. No, oil is not about to run out--but we're running low on cheap oil, and we can't ignore the economic implications of that.

    164. Re:Bull by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Partially. I have friends who have an autistic child.

      Among the more successful therapies were horse training and changing her diet.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    165. Re:Bull by Hrshgn · · Score: 1

      > The workarounds include higher efficiency devices (e.g. iPad/Mac Mini/laptop instead of a massive gaming desktop)

      You do realize that such devices are only a marginal part of our energy consumption? Transport and Heating/Cooling are the biggest energy consumers today. All the rest is peanuts.

      Remember, if everyone saves a bit of energy, humankind as a whole also only saves a bit of energy.

    166. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "solar cells will drop in price as demand increases"...

      Silly

    167. Re:Bull by Lord+Ender · · Score: 1

      What does it mean to say "civilizations have fallen?" New borders on a map? So what? For the average person life goes on pretty much the same.

      --
      A slashdotter who didn't build his own computer is like a Jedi who didn't build his own lightsaber.
    168. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thank you, I always wondered if our heat contribution was significant.

    169. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Part of the 11% is then dissipated into space every next year, right?

      I'm sorry, I don't really get points exactly both you and parent try to make..

      Just curious, I'd like to understand this.
      Thanks.

    170. Re:Bull by Lord+Ender · · Score: 1

      Ah, but as any Libertarian will tell you, this problem is self-correcting without government intervention. For example: once fish species start going extinct, the invisible hand of the market will intervene by making those fish ever-more valuable, allowing fishermen to profitably expend ever-more resources on hunting down every last one of the endangered delicacies. See how that works? RON PAUL!

      --
      A slashdotter who didn't build his own computer is like a Jedi who didn't build his own lightsaber.
    171. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm still waiting for the day when "Carter was right," becomes a common phrase. It's looking like it won't be much longer.

    172. Re:Bull by Pharmboy · · Score: 1

      AND just like ipv4 exhaustion, nothing serious is going to be done about this until stuff actually starts falling apart.

      All of this rather assumes we live in a bubble, a static universe, like most studies of this nature. Once natural resources are in shorter supply than the demand, the system corrects itself. Usually this means the price goes up dramatically, which causes starvation in some parts of the world, and wars in others, thus reducing the demand on the system until it reaches equilibrium.

      The earth is a giant petri dish, my friends, and when the resources run low, one group of organisms will simply destroy the competition in what is typically called "survival of the fittest". Right or wrong, that is what happens. To think that instead, the entire global population of 12 billion people will simply just have to eat and consume less is naive. The biggest 6 billion will kill off the weakest, so they can have twice as much. History is absolutely full of these examples, only on a more regional scale as the technology to quickly kill people on the other side of the globe didn't exist. Call it sad, morbid or entirely too dark, but half the wars over the history of man have been over resources. Of course, the other half were due to religious differences.

      --
      Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
    173. Re:Bull by tompaulco · · Score: 1

      And whose fault will that be? The dumb populace, or the wise council which turned out to be wrong in the 10,000 other cases where their warnings turned out to be baseless?

      --
      If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
    174. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm fairly certain that there is only one accepted meaning for the term....

      There is only one real definition of "peak oil".

      Peak Oil - a piece of political rhetoric designed to smear and demonize advanced societies, to encourage the citizens of those societies to engage in meaningless posturing and preening while expressing hatred of their own countries and lifestyles without actually sacrificing anything. The ultimate goal that the phrase was designed for was to advance the cause of Marxism by encouraging capitalist societies to limit their own development and to celebrate backward, authoritarian societies as models to be emulated.

      Generally, the political sales pitch for "peak oil" and similar terms is based on simplistic, facile statements about the resources of Earth being limited coupled with unsupported assertions that a resource has been or will shortly be depleted which will soon lead to calamity. (See: "chicken little", "the sky is falling" and "never let a manufactured crisis go to waste") No fear-mongering use of "peak oil" ever mentions complexities such as uncertainty about resource estimates, changing production and usage technologies (other than compulsory standard-of-living reducing technologies), the gradual switching to alternatives mediated by market forces, the natural competition for resources which has always and will always exist as part of the human condition and the desire of people in backward, shit hole countries to live more like people in advanced societies (noble savages don't think of themselves as so very noble).

    175. Re:Bull by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      Buggy Whips are what PHBs use on poor programmers. Peak Buggy Whip is far in the future.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    176. Re:Bull by Atryn · · Score: 1

      coal use should be illegal in any country that wants to call itself civilized

      Well, we have a long way to go before we stop using Coal in the USA. Map of coal fired power plants in the USA

      --
      Come play Moral Decay!
    177. Re:Bull by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      Although we might not be able to surpass the old peak old production, we can substantially increase production by removing -- not reducing, REMOVING -- government restrictions on new wells.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    178. Re:Bull by sempir · · Score: 1

      Think i'll hang on to the 500.000 buggy whips I got for a song!

      --
      A closed mouth gathers no foot.
    179. Re:Bull by arth1 · · Score: 1

      Indeed. And for the iPad, it's not just the materials in the iPad and the power it uses that's a problem. Don't forget to add to the equation all the resources that the people who design, make, transport, sell and support the iPad and its services require.
      Not to mention, as another poster hinted at, that the iPad is used for travelling. The big improvement isn't to have a device that uses less resources while travelling, but to not travel.

      Yes, radical changes are needed. In thinking, more than anything else.

    180. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think we all need to look at the bigger picture of this situ. We bitch and moan and comment. Do you all realize the only people that will survive can "Afford" to survive this Day After Tomorrow scenario (obviously i'm not talking about ipv4) are the fuckers that caused it in the first place. Someone will make a fuck ton of short term profit saving the rich. I think us poor dead can take solace in the fact that cash will mean absolutely dick the day after tomorrow.

    181. Re:Bull by ChrisMaple · · Score: 0, Troll

      I continue to be puzzled by the claim that strip mining harms the environment. It takes flatlands or gently rolling hills and transforms them into dramatic new peaks and valleys, complete with access trails. What could be better?

      Environmentalists aren't interested in an environment good for humans, they want a primitive wilderness where nothing ever changes, especially where they live.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    182. Re:Bull by poetmatt · · Score: 1

      what part of "supply and demand has nothing to do with sustainability" did you selectively misread? Oh right, all of it.

    183. Re:Bull by BraksDad · · Score: 1

      ...a dwindling amount of oil that can be economically extracted.

      Define economically

      People grumbled at $4/gallon, but the collapse of Western society did not occur. A dwindling supply of easily extracted crude will lead to higher prices and eventually the cost of shail oil and sand oil extraction will be reached and then that glut of resources will stat to be consumed.

      We are not about to run out of oil, we are just running out of the cheapest sources of it.

      --
      Slowly waving my hand - "This is not the sig you are looking for."
    184. Re:Bull by BraksDad · · Score: 1

      He's using the standard definition of "peak oil", ...

      As defind by which standards organization?

      --
      Slowly waving my hand - "This is not the sig you are looking for."
    185. Re:Bull by INT_QRK · · Score: 1

      Concur: "Bull." It's a sad state of modern affairs that any "study" that issues from a advocacy group goes straight to my dust bin. It's the whole "Wolf!" thing. Favorite relevant quote: "The great tragedy of Science: the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact!" - Huxley

    186. Re:Bull by wierd_w · · Score: 1

      No, a 99% efficient heat engine is not possible.

      The maximum efficiency you can get from any thermally based engine is the Carnot Efficiency.

    187. Re:Bull by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      Don't confuse a libertarian with an anarchist. The problem you cite is caused by a failure in defining property rights, which can be solved with minimally intrusive government action. Examples include conventional fishing licenses, annually selling the exclusive right to fish in a certain area, or permanently selling a given area. Owners generally protect the value of their property, and often act to improve it (Think fish farms). Sure, there are going to be short-sighted people who destroy a given area that they own, but that also happens with complete government control (like the USSR) or with no government control. The proper goal is to define property rights in a manner that encourages good use of the property.

      Consider water rights along a stream. A person is allowed to use some of the water. If he uses it all, people downstream are having their rights infringed and can sue. Similarly for the case of water pollution. In some places, people even sell for a limited time the right to limited fishing in their portion of a stream.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    188. Re:Bull by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      Once again, someone misrepresents "Atlas Shrugged", either through ignorance or malice.

      the horrible, oppressive persecution the rich and the powerful face

      "Atlas Shrugged" shows the powerful and incompetent persecuting the productive. Riches and intelligence are shown among both the good guys and the bad guys.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    189. Re:Bull by Alef · · Score: 1

      You deliberately cut the sentence in half. Increasing demand results in increasing production in the long term (supply goes up to meet the demand), which means more investments and research in the solar cell industry, which will lead to cheaper production technology. Look at any high volume semi-conductor industry and you will see examples of this. Producing a single computer monitor is very expensive but producing one million is not that expensive, per monitor. Volume is the key here.

    190. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "To most people, "peak oil" is the point at which production is at a peak."

      Which is useless, just because every production or research venture goes through a similar thing of rapid growth due to easy gains.

      Ever since people on /. have yelled we reached the peak back in 2002 or 2003, oil production has increased every year since then. Wikipedia has mention up to 2006 and the numbers increase year over year.

      The problem is that the definition of peak oil itself fails to be of practical value. When peak oil is reached at one point in history, the production numbers change. Why? Because oil prices go up (or down). As they go up, what was previously unreachable oil economically becomes viable. Also, you cannot say you've reached a peak until it starts to drop year over year, and so far, the numbers do not support this if separated from economic factors (such as the recent recession/depression).

      There are oil fields that have more than tripled their estimated output. Not because the original estimates were wholly inaccurate, but because as the oil prices went up, they started using more expensive methods to extract the oil that was left.

      iow, the oil production numbers will nearly always seem to flatline for a time once "peak oil" is reached based on the economy and political pressures (i.e. going green). This not a bad thing, or even novel. We see this a lot in other industries where new ideas and resources are maxed out under the current political and economic climate, after years of rapid growth and investment. Oil has simply reached that point.

      All peak oil indicates it that we have maxed out on what we want to spend compared to other available energy options. Not because we cannot increase production. For example, the US peaked production in the 70s, but we refuse to drill in many fields today because of environmental concerns (2008 presidential election about drilling in Alaska--there are many other fields we choose to ignore).

      Clearly we can increase production, but choose not to, because it's cheaper to buy from the Saudis, just like it's cheaper to buy your laptop from Taiwan.

    191. Re:Bull by mcornelius · · Score: 1

      I did not misread it. I did not address sustainability, only availability. However, since you brought the point up, market expectations of future supply (i.e., production sustainability) are part of demand.

    192. Re:Bull by Alef · · Score: 1

      Do you think the daily life of the average person is independent of a functioning society and commercial markets?

    193. Re:Bull by Omestes · · Score: 1

      Either that or the environment is a very complicated interlocking system that isn't very well understood by humans. And while having a nice parkland might be nice for us right now, who knows what changes that modification will cause in 100 years. That and some of us like the wilderness, just like some of us like domesticated parks. Some of us even prefer wilderness over said parks. I being on of them. I like inaccessible wilderness, it keeps the rest of the monkeys out.

      Sometimes the best way to fix something is to not touch it at all.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    194. Re:Bull by Lord+Ender · · Score: 1

      When the British Empire fell, did the economy and society stop?

      --
      A slashdotter who didn't build his own computer is like a Jedi who didn't build his own lightsaber.
    195. Re:Bull by Lord+Ender · · Score: 1

      So you're one of those pro-government-regulation "libertarians?" Funny.

      --
      A slashdotter who didn't build his own computer is like a Jedi who didn't build his own lightsaber.
    196. Re:Bull by Darkman,+Walkin+Dude · · Score: 1

      But if the hot reservoir is at 300 k and the cold one is at 3 k, you get a maximum possible 99%..?

    197. Re:Bull by Alef · · Score: 1

      The British (or Western Europe rather, if we are talking about a civilization) never really fell with the loss of their colonies. Instead, you should look at examples such as the Hittite Empire, the Maya civilization, the Mycenaean Greece, the Khmer Empire or the Western Roman Empire.

    198. Re:Bull by wierd_w · · Score: 1

      Last I checked, those conditions did not exist on the earth. :D

      Unless of course, you intend to move to mercury, and make use of the fact that it is tidelocked to the sun... ;)

    199. Re:Bull by Have+Brain+Will+Rent · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You aren't dependent on "Arabs, Russians and Mexicans for the life blood of your economic viability and strategic safety"... you were right, it is a problem of attitude not supply. There wouldn't be a problem if "you" could simply stop driving all those Hummers and other fricken huge vehicles that are totally unnecessary for the average person, by which I mean people who don't have an actual practical need for an SUV or truck but drive one anyhow to help keep their egos pumped. And houses that are integer multiples of the size actually needed to be comfortable... I mean geez just how many bathrooms does a house need? It's not just an American thing either... I look at what I see on the road in my city and at least 75% of the people are driving vehicles all out of proportion to their needs. Having lived on a farm I can tell you it's not hard to tell when a 4wd vehicle has never been off paved roads... or a 2wd for that matter.

      --
      The tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny - Aesop
    200. Re:Bull by vanyel · · Score: 1

      It has never been "in about a year" until this year, when the unallocated ipv4 space went from 10% at the beginning of the year to 5% as of this week, and there is a lot of work going on right now to move to ipv6. But doom and gloom cynicism always sells better...

    201. Re:Bull by caerwyn · · Score: 1

      I have not "completely failed to understand it". You have failed to understand my post, and in fact your own examples support my point.

      The market has certain inherent biases as a result of the incentives, primarily short-term, built into it. It works very well in many cases, but it is not a panacea and anyone trying to tell you that complete dependence on a completely free market is optimal is lying.

      The biggest area in which the market tends to fail is in risk analysis of rare-but-significant events. This is primarily due to the fact that the market can be viewed as a distributed optimization algorithm- and, like any such algorithm, can be caught in local optima. Each player takes an action that is locally rational with respect to his own situation, but is globally suboptimal given more complete knowledge of the system. Another real-world example of this is water rights handling in the western US.

      This is where an agent external to the system is beneficial in acting as a globally optimizing force to counter the in-market biases. My point is that with such an agent the supply shocks in the oil market, for instance, could have been avoided- there existed sufficient information over the long term to see that such shocks were coming (and will come again), and though no in-market plan can afford to move the economy in such a direction as to mitigate those shocks (they're too long-term and unpredictable, so the lost opportunity cost is judged to be too high), and external player can and should.

      --
      The ringing of the division bell has begun... -PF
    202. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      5 years ago, we predicted IPv4 address exhaustion in ~6 years.

      4 years ago, we predicted IPv4 address exhaustion in ~5 years

      1 year ago we predicted IPv4 address exhaustion in ~2 years

      I don't know, is there maybe a pattern here?

      As with global climate change, because it's real and not just a fairytale, all the reality based people are already working with this as an assumption. Nobody at RIPE is planning on doing IPv4 assignments in 2015 because there will be no such job. But there are plenty of people living in a fairytale. Buying up "cheap" seafront property that will be underwater before they're finished building on it.

      I won't really get to say "Haha" to anyone over climate change. Most of the denialists aren't stupid enough to actually buy seafront property, they leave that to poor people and not-so-bright property investors. But on IPv4 I will get a brief moment to say "Haha" before each client explains their unique sob story.

    203. Re:Bull by jez9999 · · Score: 1

      Ask yer average Zimbabwean.

    204. Re:Bull by mldi · · Score: 1

      I rather doubt we will have a "day after tomorrow", things don't happen like that. Instead I see a mechanization of our nature. For example, imagine a sort of nature where things are completely recycled? Sound far fetched? Consider how Switzerland is essentially self-sufficient in copper. Does Switzerland have copper mines? Nope not even close. Copper can be easily recycled and hence Switzerland recycles their own copper. This goes towards rare earths, etc, etc.

      While many people believe that we waste, waste, waste, there are many pockets of the world that are now becoming adapt at living with little. Classic example is Israel. Israel can grow crops with water amounts that makes everybody else blush with embarrassment. That is the future...

      I just can't wait until we start actually mining our landfills in the US, just to snatch a few extra tons of resources. Nothing like sifting through our old garbage to prove how terrible we are at recycling.

      --
      If you aren't suspicious of your government's actions, you aren't doing your job as a responsible citizen.
    205. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lack of support for nuclear fission has more to do with the cost of implementing it rather than the environmental movement.
      AC2PM.

    206. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's certainly been true of most electronics and solar cells are just another form of electronics.
      AC2PM

    207. Re:Bull by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      The biggest area in which the market tends to fail is in risk analysis of rare-but-significant events.

      What does this have to do with anything we're discussing? The crash of '08 was not a random event. It wasn't a meteor or natural disaster.

      The reason markets fail to hedge against "rare-but-significant events" is that they are almost always the result of government force.

      Another real-world example of this is water rights handling in the western US.

      I'm not very knowledgeable of this area, but I do know that water is cheaper in the middle of the desert in some western states than it is in states that get 10x as much rainfall. This does seem analogous to oil, in that it is yet another example of government monopolizing a resource and distributing it for less than market value in order to maintain the ponzi scheme of perpetual growth in population and consumption.

      This is where an agent external to the system is beneficial in acting as a globally optimizing force

      This "external agent" already exists. It's the US government. And it hasn't optimized anything. In fact, it's been the cause of most of the supply shocks. By forcing oil-exporting states to continue producing for US consumption (see: Operation Iraqi Liberation) and by forcibly preventing the development of viable energy alternatives (see: US nuclear regulations and the Iranian controversy), the US government has completely destroyed the world economy. Instead of a nice slow rise in oil prices and plenty of time to develop alternatives, we get terrorist attacks and resource wars and supply shocks and money printing to subsidize giant houses and SUVs.

      with such an agent the supply shocks in the oil market, for instance, could have been avoided- there existed sufficient information over the long term to see that such shocks were coming (and will come again)

      Now you don't seem to even understand the meaning of the term "supply shock". It isn't merely a reduction in supply. We're going to get that regardless. It's a sharp, sudden reduction in supply. And there would never be supply shocks of the magnitude we saw in '06-'08 in the absence of government force. There wouldn't even be any future ones if government would stop subsidizing failure and preventing progress.

      no in-market plan can afford to move the economy in such a direction as to mitigate those shocks

      Speculators were the ones moving the economy in the right direction -- in the direction of liquidating the banks that were building million-dollar homes for people with no incomes. Unfortunately, it turns out that this bloated and unproductive sector of the economy was actually created and mandated (see: FNM, FRE) by your all-seeing "external agent" in the first place, and this external agent prevented it from being liquidated by those "in-market" forces acting in the benefit of the real economy.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    208. Re:Bull by c0lo · · Score: 1

      Buddy... you'd better start using them yourself. They are already doing it for some time now.

      --
      Questions raise, answers kill. Raise questions to stay alive.
    209. Re:Bull by fatphil · · Score: 1

      But c6gunner seems to be talking out of his arse. According to http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf41.html, in the US, in 1980, nuclear plants produced 251 billion kWh. In 2008, that output had risen to 809 billion kWh

      If that's peaking several decades ago, I'm a dutchman. The peak has never been anything to do the number of facilities, and even that hasn't really peaked - it's plateaued, and new ones are planned.

      --
      Also FatPhil on SoylentNews, id 863
    210. Re:Bull by drainbramage · · Score: 1

      Yes, I capitalized Shell to show I was using the proper name rather then the shell used in a game. I did not intend to vilify the company.
      Just as you realized 'Shell' is not the same as 'shell' and as you pointed out buggy whips and oil are not the really the same kind of thing, I was trying to point out that 'Peak oil' is not the same as no oil. In the US it really looks like the major obstructions are lawyers and government, not dollars and (common) sense.

      --
      No brain, no pain.
    211. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I wonder how jellyfish taste on peanut butter.

      I am an AC (just to preserve mods).

    212. Re:Bull by skarphace · · Score: 1

      No, it's not a good analogy. We can ramp up nuclear any time we choose.

      And we can ramp up oil any time we choose. If you're going to ignore the fiscal and political implications of ramping up nuclear plant construction, I can just as easily ignore the fiscal implications of ramping up oil production.

      And why would you ignore that? It's a big part of economics.

      Your argument is a bit ill thought out and I'm not sure why you'd bother arguing it. "We could -technically- beat that previous peak, but there is no way in hell it will actually happen due to market forces." I don't see the point in that argument.

      --
      Bullish Machine Tzar
    213. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Peak Oil - a piece of political rhetoric designed to smear and demonize advanced societies, to encourage the citizens of those societies to engage in meaningless posturing and preening while expressing hatred of their own countries and lifestyles without actually sacrificing anything.

      Jesus, are you fucked in the head or what? Hubbard was *anything* but a green freak. He did his research and told the oil companies (his employers) straight-up that the party wouldn't last forever. That is hard data, not rhetoric.

      Earth being limited coupled with unsupported assertions that a resource has been or will shortly be depleted which will soon lead to calamity

      The peak prediction is well-supported by the data. Oil production lags behind discoveries, and peaks in production follow peaks in discoveries. The US discoveries peaked around 1930 and production peaked around 1970. The overall peak is the sum of individual fields' peaks, and EVERY field follows this pattern. That is fact. Discoveries have peaked - there will be more discoveries, but not at the rate before 1930. That is also fact.

      Now if you want to argue that we will find enough alternatives to replace oil as it's currently used, you'd better find something cheap, plentiful, energy-rich and easily transportable. If not, you'd better start planning for scarcity because it will come eventually, even if you postpone it by a few years or even decades, sooner or later we will change our lifestyle.

      Cheney said "the American way of life is non-negotiable." Fine, eat all the cake now. Don't say you weren't warned.

    214. Re:Bull by Eclipse-now · · Score: 1
      Dude, I totally agree with the recycling philosophy you're discussing. There are even new plasma burner technologies that will recycle municipal waste at an atomic level for us, ripping plastics and diapers and food waste back to constituent atoms and the resulting gases and slag are all used.
      http://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recycle/

      However, my main reason for posting was to ask: where did you get your awesome sig? It is hilarious.

      "You can't make a race horse of a pig" "No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"

    215. Re:Bull by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's still cheaper to use a barrel of oil to extract 2 barrels of oil in order to have a remaining barrel of oil for other uses, than it is to use wind or solar power.

    216. Re:Bull by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Newton's laws of motion specifically stated the assumption that time is constant, Einstien demonstrated it wasn't, but that does not mean Newton's laws are wrong. All theories are based on certain assumptions, why is Malthus attacked for doing the same thing?

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  3. And the religions of the world.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    still refuse to discuss population control.

    1. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Culture20 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      still refuse to discuss population control.

      Not true. There are a few that advocate genocide.

    2. Re:And the religions of the world.... by sqrt(2) · · Score: 1

      When you are competing for the minds of as many humans as possible the best way to gain followers is to encourage them to reproduce as rapidly and as often as possible. Very few religions gain members through conversion, so breeding new members is really the only option. It's no coincidence that nearly all major religions discourage birth control or family planning practices, and encourage you to have as many children (and sometimes wives) as you can support. Add to that the selfish and myopic idea that nothing we do in this life really matters (as long as you follow the rules in $HOLY BOOK) and you have a recipe for ecological disaster.

      Now, I have met religious people who believe that the earth is a gift to us, and we must serve as guardians of it, protecting and managing its resources responsibly; that living in harmony and balance is what god intended for us. Unfortunately when I compare those beliefs to what is actually said in the bible for example, it's apparent that they are not closely following their religion. The bible is very clear when it comes to the earth: this place is a rental, and it's all going to come to an end very, very soon. If you believe that, truly believe that, why would you bother recycling?

      --
      If you build it, nerds will come. Soylentnews.org
    3. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I can agree with the forced genocide but I have one request for those who advocate it. You first.

    4. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Ironsides · · Score: 1

      Well, we could always start by decreasing the surplus population. I vote we start with anyone posting as Anonymous Coward.

      --
      Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
    5. Re:And the religions of the world.... by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 1

      damn birth control advocates!! will no one thing of the babies that are being killed before they are conceived!!

    6. Re:And the religions of the world.... by mc6809e · · Score: 4, Insightful

      still refuse to discuss population control.

      And so do the non religious, unfortunately. Worse, they seem intent on subsidizing the fecundity of the stupid at the expense of the responsible.

    7. Re:And the religions of the world.... by ickleberry · · Score: 1

      You like population control? Then why not set a good example by jumping off the nearest cliff?

    8. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      No need. We'll just have a few wars like we always do... and maybe a plague or two. This problem will sort itself out.

    9. Re:And the religions of the world.... by tverbeek · · Score: 4, Interesting

      In fact, "growth" has become something of a religion itself. In public discourse and political debate, no one ever talks about stability; the need to "grow the economy" is taken as a "given", a commandment from on high. If a company's sales are merely stable from one quarter or year to the next, they are considered unsuccessful (or would be if the economy as a whole weren't currently shrinking). If a country's or state's or city's population isn't increasing, that's considered a sign of problems. There will come a day when that trend stops, whether it's in 2030 or probably much later. The only question is whether we'll bring population growth to a "controlled landing" or to a crash.

      --
      http://alternatives.rzero.com/
    10. Re:And the religions of the world.... by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 1

      Especially by Slashdotters.

      --
      Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
    11. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Affluence = population control. Note how Europe and the US are experiencing all of their population growth now due to immigration? It doesn't require mandatory birth control measures (or enforced abortion laws, etc) to keep the population down.

      All you really have to do is provide the masses with a better form of retirement plan than: 'have a shitload of kids so that at least some will live long enough to care for you when you get old'.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    12. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Did it ever occur to you that most major religions discourage birth control (and especially abortion) because it blocks the production of life - something they esteem to hold in the highest regard? Mind you, I'm only discussing the concept, not the practitioners.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    13. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Penguinisto · · Score: 1

      Dude, Idiocracy was a funny show and all, but please don't confuse correlation with causation. ;)

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    14. Re:And the religions of the world.... by sqrt(2) · · Score: 1

      Wouldn't unchecked growth create poverty, famine, disease, and other social problems? You'd save more lives, and improve the lives of those who are born by advocating responsible family planning practices. If they really cared about life, and the quality of it, that's what they'd be doing. Organized religion doesn't really care about that. That's why they preach that life is all about suffering and pain--just keep enduring it until you die and go to heaven where you'll finally be better off. Make as many more people while you're here so they can donate to the church what little they make.

      --
      If you build it, nerds will come. Soylentnews.org
    15. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Penguinisto · · Score: 1

      Wouldn't unchecked growth create poverty, famine, disease, and other social problems?

      That's one assumption, but not necessarily true. Note that most organized religion also preaches abstinence and an avoidance of casual sex - acts which are almost perfectly guaranteed to not produce a baby. Hell, even the Catholic Church preaches something called natural family planning, which (unlike the past and oft-derided 'rhythm method'), actually times things accurately around female ovulation.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    16. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      If you look at the bloodiest wars that humans have experienced, WWI and WWII, and even add in the genocide of the Jews and Stalin's great purge, that is all still only a tiny blip compared to global population. War (except perhaps before the Industrial Revolution and modern medicine) has never been a significant control on population.

      Plagues haven't done much either, except for the Bubonic Plague.

      In earlier times (such as during the days of the Bubonic Plague), these things may have been a significant check on overpopulation, but not since the Industrial Revolution and the invention of antibiotics and other parts of modern medicine.

    17. Re:And the religions of the world.... by sqrt(2) · · Score: 1

      How is cheating nature by discovering a "natural" way to have sex without conception any more moral than using a latex condom or the pill?

      Also, you can preach whatever you want, it's abundantly clear that abstinence WOULD work when practiced...but people don't. So effectively, by promoting abstinence only, they are complicit in spreading STDs and unplanned pregnancy. They either know it's not working and don't care, because more babies is the goal anyway, or they don't know that it doesn't work in practice because they refuse to look at and believe the evidence.

      --
      If you build it, nerds will come. Soylentnews.org
    18. Re:And the religions of the world.... by wierd_w · · Score: 1

      This is why I advocate letting nature do it.

      Multiple drug resistant bacteria are shaping up to be the new black death. Since it isnt stopped by traditional treatments, not even the rich and powerful would be immune. Perfect choice.

      Go mother nature.

      (And if I happen to catch it, it wouldn't mean a whole lot anyway. I have already decided never to have children, so I'm an evolutionary dead end anyway.)

    19. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      > Wouldn't unchecked growth create poverty, famine, disease, and other social problems?

      Not necessarily. In a free economy, the more people the better. It's broken areas without rule of law, or too much as in the case of dictatorships, that have starvation problems.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    20. Re:And the religions of the world.... by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      Affluence = population control

      You're confusing cause and effect.

      It doesn't require mandatory birth control measures (or enforced abortion laws, etc) to keep the population down.

      No, but it does require that there is an appropriate cost to bearing children, borne by the parents.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    21. Re:And the religions of the world.... by TheStatsMan · · Score: 1

      Wrong...education = population control.

    22. Re:And the religions of the world.... by TheNarrator · · Score: 1

      The Sierra club had a huge internal struggle between people who wanted to limit immigration for environmental reasons and those who thought it was outside the scope of the organization:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_Club#Population_control_and_immigration

    23. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Anubis+IV · · Score: 1

      Ever heard the parable of the talents? Here's a quick refresher:

      A master gives three of his servants some money when he goes to leave on a business trip for a long time, telling them that he will be back someday. One of them gets 10 talents (a talent is a unit of currency roughly equivalent to the earnings a normal person would make in a lifetime), one gets 3 talents, and the last gets 1 talent. They each go and do their own thing, completely clueless to when he'll get back. Years later, the master comes back, and the first two servants have managed to double what their master originally gave them and are rewarded accordingly for being good stewards. The last one simply buried the talent, then dug it up and handed it to the master. He was scolded and then cast out for what he had done.

      I think that just about covers it...

      So, yes, this place is temporary, but we've been entrusted with it and have been told to be good stewards of the things we're entrusted with. Just because the end of the world will come one day doesn't mean that we're off the hook for what we do in the meantime, otherwise a whole lot of things (e.g. sin, good works, etc.) would be completely meaningless.

    24. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Idbar · · Score: 1

      I don't think they discourage birth control, what they discourage are unnatural methods, including abortion because of respect to life. While I don't completely share that point of view, it's different to what you're saying, to me their point of view is pretty simple: Sex carries its consequences, if you're up for them, then go for it. If not, try to be more "naturally" careful.

    25. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      I don't have a problem with the notion of birth control. Use it myself on a regular basis. I just have a problem with the people that think it should be state mandated. If freedom and self-determination are to mean anything the Government can't regulate our reproductive choices.

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    26. Re:And the religions of the world.... by one+cup+of+coffee · · Score: 1

      [citation needed]

    27. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And the shakers didn't value life? Or is more likely that they just didn't grow because they didn't have children?

      The question isn't what major religions believe, but why they became major.

    28. Re:And the religions of the world.... by caitsith01 · · Score: 1

      You may find it interesting that in the most recent Federal election in Australia both major parties suddenly, and somewhat unexpectedly, adopted a "small Australia" policy. Both had pushed "infinitely large Australia" previously at the behest of their friends in big business.

      Although this new position has the advantage of allowing some pandering to racists/bigots by limiting immigration (a big issue in Australia), I personally also believe it reflects a growing public view that we have plenty of people and a nice amount of space, resources, etc and would be crazy to sacrifice that in exchange for a few large companies making a bit more money via population-driven growth in GDP.

      --
      Read Pynchon.
    29. Re:And the religions of the world.... by caitsith01 · · Score: 1

      Indeed - get the masses to the point where they don't think 'have a shitload of kids because that's just what you do.'

      --
      Read Pynchon.
    30. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Reducing the number of people on the planet may make things a little easier to manage but it is NOT an effective solution.

      One fat US citizen consumes the natural resources of DOZENS of your average poor person in your favorite poor "third world" country.

      Even if population started to decline tomorrow (In many developed countries it is already heading that way) poorer nations will continue to push ahead at a rapid pace to improve their standards of living.

      It is the responsibility of advanced countries to set a sustainable example for the developing world.

    31. Re:And the religions of the world.... by urusan · · Score: 1

      In fact, "growth" has become something of a religion itself. In public discourse and political debate, no one ever talks about stability; the need to "grow the economy" is taken as a "given", a commandment from on high. If a company's sales are merely stable from one quarter or year to the next, they are considered unsuccessful (or would be if the economy as a whole weren't currently shrinking).

      For roughly the last 200 years, the economy has been growing exponentially (along with several other factors like population and computer speed during different periods). If a company's sales are merely stable for a period, then they are shrinking exponentially in comparison to the economy as a whole. It means that the company is losing relevance and customers are spending less and less of their incomes on the company's products (presumably because they are spending it on competing products). Nations with zero economic growth are similarly passed up by other economically growing nations, losing their relevance and strategic position. In this kind of environment it is unsurprising that stagnation is viewed as backwards.

      In an overall stable system though, growth is unusual and exciting while stability is the norm. I'm sure people would get used to it quickly. After all, if a businessman or politician knows they can't deliver on growth, why would they hold themselves or others up to that lofty standard? It would make them look bad to say "growth" and deliver stagnation.

      There will come a day when that trend stops, whether it's in 2030 or probably much later. The only question is whether we'll bring population growth to a "controlled landing" or to a crash.

      How far can we grow without losing it all back when it stops is a very important question, perhaps even more relevant than whether the transition will be rough. Will our growth stop today? or will it end with us building a Dyson sphere and settling down into a cozy virtual world of our own design? or maybe somewhere in-between? If we still have a long way to grow, then we'd best not put the brakes on now.

    32. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm more inclined to believe that major religions discourage birth control because it blocks the production of minions. More followers = more influence, and followers tend to indoctrinate their offspring into the same faith as themselves.

    33. Re:And the religions of the world.... by melonman · · Score: 1

      A somewhat sweeping statement. Most Christian denominations worldwide take a fairly "modern" view on contraception. And you have to wonder about the influence of the Vatiican when highly Catholic Italy has a catastophically low birth rate.

      Atheism has only had about a century in which to wield political power, but it has caught up fast on the genocide front.

      --
      Virtually serving coffee
    34. Re:And the religions of the world.... by tverbeek · · Score: 1

      "If we still have a long way to grow, then we'd best not put the brakes on now."

      Why not? What would be bad about halting population growth before it was essential to do so?

      --
      http://alternatives.rzero.com/
    35. Re:And the religions of the world.... by swell · · Score: 1

      ... most major religions discourage birth control (and especially abortion) because it blocks the production of life - something they esteem to hold in the highest regard ...

      You refer to 'major', and later, 'organized' religions. Which is to say 'religions with an agenda'. Over the centuries, religions have learned what works for the success of the organization. Early on they discovered that it is easier to replicate devotees than convert outsiders. Those without blinders understand this motivation for the perpetuation of the organization and the rewards for insiders.

      It is also true that the roots of these religions are from a rural society without the benefit of Social Security or other retirement plans. Population explosion was less of a problem and replicants were the retirement plan.

      Those with blinders will assume that the organizations' continued pressure for them to replicate is somehow for their own benefit.

      --
      ...omphaloskepsis often...
    36. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ahhh... I see. They care about the PRODUCTION of life. That explains a lot. Because they sure as hell don't care about the duration or end of lives.

      Produce as much life as possible that we can torture and send to an early death, so we'll have room to produce new life.

      Can't say I like them very much.

    37. Re:And the religions of the world.... by urusan · · Score: 1

      Looking back on it now, I kinda messed up with the quote I picked. I meant general growth (economic, scientific, technological, etc.) not necessarily population growth. Why would we want to stop additional growth in these areas if we can hold onto our gains? Don't we want a bigger pie for when we eventually become more stable? That will mean there's more to divide up.

      Some more population growth might even make sense in the context of expanding throughout the solar system or to largely uninhabited areas of the Earth or into newly minted virtual worlds, as we might not be able to fully utilize these resources with our current population, but beyond a certain point population growth means fewer resources per person and/or higher levels of inequality. The only advantages of population growth go to those people who don't exist yet. Since we exist already, we can be selfish and decide that all those other people don't need to exist so we can keep the extra resources to ourselves. It might not even be all that selfish if bringing them into the world would make their lives not worth living.

      Also, at least for now we need to keep on reproducing. As long as people grow old and frail then if a nation (or the whole world) falls below the replacement rate, then it will mean there will not be enough young people to care for the old people and eventually we'll grow weak and vanish. Even for stability you need an average of a little over 2 children per female.

  4. Easy peasy lemon squeezy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    get rid of US'ians and that wll reduce resource level consumption by half for while.

    1. Re:Easy peasy lemon squeezy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not if us Americans have anything to say about it.

  5. Ridiculous by scottbomb · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Haven't "scientists" been saying stuff like this since about the mid-1800s? "Peak Oil", "Population Overcrowding", "Global Warming"... all modern-day myths that never seem to die no matter how much they're refuted.

    1. Re:Ridiculous by selven · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The myths are true, we're just really good at pushing back problems until we absolutely can't no more, at which point things screw up epically.

    2. Re:Ridiculous by sqrt(2) · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Is space on the earth infinite? No. And an individual human's need for space is much greater than zero. Given those two fact there is a limit, just on living space, for how many humans the earth can support. Now, what that limit is exactly isn't known for sure, it's a moving target because technology keeps pushing it higher and higher but there definitely is a limit. Same with water, and food production. You can squeeze more and more efficiency out of the system but eventually you're going to hit a limit, even if it's 100% that still won't allow for growth for ever and ever. People in the past have been wrong about the specific numbers and dates, but the underlying principle is sound.

      --
      If you build it, nerds will come. Soylentnews.org
    3. Re:Ridiculous by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Is space on the earth infinite? No. And an individual human's need for space is much greater than zero. Given those two fact there is a limit, just on living space, for how many humans the earth can support.

      But so long as you can build upwards, that limit is far into the trillions. And if we can replace goop brains with nanotech AIs, humans could be built much smaller than our current body size.

      Other limits are likely to stop population growth well before available space does.

    4. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The myths are wrong, it isn't the humans that need two Earths, it is the Earth that needs half the humans.

      You have more than 2 kids? You know people with more than 2 kids?

      Thank them.

    5. Re:Ridiculous by arth1 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      They're not refuted - we're adapting, finding ways to both postpone the inevitable, and spread the impact out over time.
      You mentioned "peak oil". We are coping by various means, including (but not limited to):
      - Processing oil from wells that earlier weren't considered economically viable, but now are with the oil price increase. This directly flattens out the peak.
      - Replacing oil-based power plants with other sources.
      - Reducing the amount of oil used per engine. Back in the 70s, 12 MPG was pretty much standard. Now you easily get several times that.
      - Substitutions. It's not just the Monsanto cartel that causes most gasoline on the US market to be 10% ethanol (and in some countries, E85 with 85% ethanol).
      All in all, we cope, but are still running out, and peak oil is still with us. Even the most optimistic figures state that we'll be well down the far side of the peak by 2025, and will have to make even more adjustments to cope.

      But cope we will. How painful coping is going to be depends on how much time we spend in denial, and how much do today.

    6. Re:Ridiculous by sqrt(2) · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Packing everyone into 8x10 cells, isn't an acceptable solution to me. Any solution that doesn't allow for wide open space of undeveloped land, wilderness, forests, jungles, deserts, is suboptimal. We could cram everyone into skyscrapers that cover the entire earth in one giant planet wide city, but what kind of life would that be? Quality of life and quality of our living space are important things to consider. Humans were not meant to be packed like sardines into crowded cities with no where to escape to. The health effects both known and unknown would be profound.

      --
      If you build it, nerds will come. Soylentnews.org
    7. Re:Ridiculous by emt377 · · Score: 1

      Packing everyone into 8x10 cells, isn't an acceptable solution to me. Any solution that doesn't allow for wide open space of undeveloped land, wilderness, forests, jungles, deserts, is suboptimal. We could cram everyone into skyscrapers that cover the entire earth in one giant planet wide city, but what kind of life would that be? Quality of life and quality of our living space are important things to consider. Humans were not meant to be packed like sardines into crowded cities with no where to escape to. The health effects both known and unknown would be profound.

      The earth has ~150M km^2 of land surface. That's 37b acres. If each family averaging 3 people had an acre we could fit 100b people. Now, all of that isn't livable, but a family also doesn't need an acre; an average living space of 2500 sq ft is plenty - bigger for large families, maybe "only" 1000 sq ft for singles. We could still fit 100b people using these luxurious standards while using only a fraction of the surface.

      The problem would be the rest of the earth's land surface and oceans wouldn't be sufficient to feed 100b, provide fresh water, energy for heating and cooling, clothing, or even furnish all this living space to begin with.

    8. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah those myths... just like that myth of the ozone layer depleting... I'm glad we didn't do a damn thing about that myth!

    9. Re:Ridiculous by zhong-guo · · Score: 0

      at which point things screw up epically

      citation?

    10. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A while back there was a report that showed that all development in the U.S. currently, including yards, suburban commuties etc, could fit inside the state of Texas. We have far more open land then developed land. It doesn;t always seem that way because roads don;t go where nothing is.

    11. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I believe that it was a Saudi Prince who said something like:
      The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones.
      The Bronze Age did not end because we ran out of bronze.
      The Iron Age did not end because we ran out of iron.
      And the Oil Age will not end because we run out of oil, but because we came up with something better.

    12. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Humans are our only chance of progress. More minds in the world means more Einsteins. The myths are empiraclly wrong and will continue to be as they do not account for tecnological progress.

    13. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The limit can be estimated at 130 billion people, but this doesn't suit the doomsayers so you will never see them try and attempt a realistic estimate.

    14. Re:Ridiculous by Dhalka226 · · Score: 1

      The problem is that they're all true, but seldom to the degrees that alarmists claim and never on their timelines, since they're notoriously difficult to predict.

      Our oil consumption rather inarguably outpaces our planet's production, meaning at some point we will be at the limits of what we can do. But nobody knows when because nobody knows where all the oil is or how much is there. Will it be a global catastrophy? Nah. Supply and demand will drive prices for oil-based products up, dropping demand and making things work out. It may be a radical change to our way of life, however.

      Same with overpopulation. There are only so many resources, especially in a given area (as opposed to Earth-wide) and when we reach a certain point, nature tends to correct itself with massive numbers of deaths. It will happen. Nobody knows when. Nobody knows what the "magic number" for a given area, nor can they easily quantify the resources available to the area, and they especially can not account for radical technological changes like the invention of dwarf wheat that would destroy any estimates no matter how accurate they may have been the day before.

      What these people want is admirable: They want us to cut down consumption, invest more in things like recycling materials instead of harvesting them. But by putting estimates out that they have no good means of making, by essentially claiming to know the unknowable, it makes them hard to take seriously. As you've said, we've seen these estimates time and time again and they have thus far been wrong. Rather than having the desired effect of people going "shucks, we had better start working on solutions now!" it just makes people ignore the valid points they have. Their crying wolf like that actually hurts their cause.

    15. Re:Ridiculous by RsG · · Score: 1

      Haven't "scientists" been saying stuff like this since about the mid-1800s? "Peak Oil", "Population Overcrowding", "Global Warming"... all modern-day myths that never seem to die no matter how much they're refuted.

      "Population overcrowding?" I assume you mean Malthusian predictions of doom, circa the 19th century. Thing is, that didn't account for the green revolution. Crop yields stayed ahead of population growth, but it took clever minds to develop the tech that allows this. And the problem is still there; not everyone has access to sufficient food and water (not just quantity, but also quality). Where you are now is likely a part of the world that's lucky enough to have endemic obesity instead of malnutrition.

      That wasn't a case of "ooh, those scientists predicted danger, and look how wrong they were". That was a case of a genuine threat being averted by human ingenuity. If people had dismissed the threat of overpopulation inducing famine as a "myth", as you just did, then they would have done nothing, and the myth would become fact. Instead, they took preventative action.

      In the long run, I have every confidence that we'll break our dependence on oil, and that peak oil and climate change will be averted much like the famines predicted by Malthus were. That will not mean the problems never were in the first place.

      You seem to be holding that the threats to the long term wellbeing of the human race are "myths". They are facts. And if they do not come to pass, it will not be because we sat around and did nothing - a crisis averted by intelligence is a learning experience, not proof that there never was a threat to begin with.

      --
      Erotic is when you use a feather. Exotic is when you use the whole chicken.
    16. Re:Ridiculous by Velex · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Packing everyone into 8x10 cells, isn't an acceptable solution to me. Any solution that doesn't allow for wide open space of undeveloped land, wilderness, forests, jungles, deserts, is suboptimal.

      Plug everyone into some kind of Second Life (or Matrix or 13th Floor or whatever) and you could do both.

      --
      Join the Slashcott! Stay away entirely Feb 10 thru Feb 17! Close all tabs to prevent autorefresh!
    17. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thanks for that laugh! You made my night! I hadn't cryed from laughter in forever.

    18. Re:Ridiculous by shermo · · Score: 1
      --
      Insanity: voting in the same two parties over and over again and expecting different results
    19. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      no, more people don't mean more minds at all, it means more brains and more mouths. it is a subtle distinction.

      more brains can only turn to more minds if there are enough resources to sustain them.

      that won't happen if the coons, the chinks, the curry slurpers and the towelheads continue to procreate.

      also, there's no such word as "empiraclly", you brain.

    20. Re:Ridiculous by zurmikopa · · Score: 1

      but... but... but... pictures of Coruscant make it seem like such a nice place to live. They have flying cars and everything!

    21. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We could cram everyone into skyscrapers that cover the entire earth in one giant planet wide city, but what kind of life would that be?

      Kind of like living on the capitol world of a galactic empire?

      http://asimov.wikia.com/wiki/File:Trantor.jpg

    22. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That sounds like the voice of experience.

    23. Re:Ridiculous by QuietObserver · · Score: 1

      Well stated. 'Overpopulation' is not a realistic threat to life on the planet; unnecessarily wasting our resources and producing massive amounts of pollution is. Even still, the larger the civilization, the more likely it is to eventually collapse. In the past century, we've found ruins of gigantic societies which completely collapsed with few outside records of their existence (unfortunately, I've been unable to locate a universal database of archaeological sites around the world using a simple Google search). The more resources we waste, without working out a practical means of recycling them, the more likely we will destroy ourselves, much like those ancient gigantic societies of the past.

    24. Re:Ridiculous by UCSCTek · · Score: 1

      Right, when making these estimates you have to really calculate the total amount of land required to support a person. Living space is one, but you need to feed, educate, entertain and etc. These considerations are noticeably absent from many of these off-the-cuff estimates. Food is a big one. Googling will give you an estimate of at least an acre per person, in order to maintain a Western diet (namely meat). At the bare minimum it is 1/8 of an acre, and then it's pretty much just grains.

    25. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Then it's an incredibly good thing that solutions aren't determined by short-sighted people like you.

    26. Re:Ridiculous by dafing · · Score: 1

      Humans were not meant to be packed like sardines into crowded cities with no where to escape to

      Neither were the sardines meant to be killed and packed in cans!

      http://www.abolitionistapproach.com/

      --
      --- ...or a new slashdot signature. Dear aunt, let's set so double the killer delete select all
    27. Re:Ridiculous by selven · · Score: 1

      1) Every revolution in history
      2) Arguably, World War I
      3) http://www.fragilecologies.com/aug29_98.html

      Kenya, for example, blamed the destruction of its transportation infrastructure on the heavy rains that occurred during 1997-98 El Niño. However, many observers now charge that the destruction of that infrastructure was due for the most part to government neglect of needed repairs for more than a decade and a half.

      4) http://edp.org/molasses.htm

      Before the explosion, the tank's owner, U.S. Industrial Alcohol, responded to warnings about structural problems with the tank by painting it brown, making it harder to see the molasses leaking out of the tank.

    28. Re:Ridiculous by Evtim · · Score: 1

      Trantor [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trantor] would be even more grandeur - a roof over the whole planet. Total climate control - great!

      The tiny writing: Azomov actually mentioned that only the food supply of Trantor is delivered by 20 farming planets!!!

    29. Re:Ridiculous by Evtim · · Score: 1

      Quote:
      "Population overcrowding?" I assume you mean Malthusian predictions of doom, circa the 19th century. Thing is, that didn't account for the green revolution. Crop yields stayed ahead of population growth, but it took clever minds to develop the tech that allows this. And the problem is still there; not everyone has access to sufficient food and water (not just quantity, but also quality). Where you are now is likely a part of the world that's lucky enough to have endemic obesity instead of malnutrition.
      End quote

      You know, the green revolution sucked. And still sucks. It produces tasteless fodder that can hardly be called food. In the West the last 2 generations were fed like this, so everyone now thinks this is normal. The fruits and vegetables are horrible. The meat is full of hormones. They fruits and vegetables contain so much less of the good nutrients because of the EXTREMELY accelerated growth (tomato growing in a week?!) that the healthy recommended dose per day is now doubled (I guess many know this simple fact). I was privileged to grow up in a backwater, non-developed nation where we fed all people (and exported a great deal) with what is now called "bio food" which at that time we called FOOD!!! Ever since I live in a developed nation the joy of food has all but disappeared. In Europe France, Italy, Spain and some of the eastern countries try to hold off, but against the cheap GM rubbish and pressure to decrease subsidies sooner or later they will fall. It is already happening.

      All these BS about eating bugs, mass production of microbial based food, algae, all the GM fad (IMO, a massive, probably unrepairable crime against nature, humanity and common sense) - all this is utter failure. We don't need it. It creates new problems and only postpones the inevitable. We just need to control our numbers (and someone above was modded Troll for suggesting it?!). It's that simple. Then we can afford nearly endless wealth and possibilities for EVERYONE.

      Read my lips: a finite, reasonable population in an (for all intents and purposes) infinite Universe - what's the problem? That is why I laughed at Hawkins statement that the aliens will plunder the Earth. What is to be found here that is not present on a lifeless rock somewhere in the Universe? Ohh, I know - what is to be found here is an unique, mega-rich biosphere, a perfect, sustainable life-support machine, the result of 4 billion years of evolution! That is precious. Not the copper and the oil. That. And it will not do for the aliens - most probably they have different metabolism and biochemistry. But some solutions might be useful for them too if on their planets nature did not "invent" them. And vice versa, of course. Just today, 18.10.2010, we lost 100 species due to our activities. Maybe in one of those species was the cure for cancer. We will never know.

      Ahhh, the problem is that we need scarcity (the mere mentioning that on the scale of the Universe there is no scarcity if we keep our number in check brings feats of rage in every economist. Dumb-assess!) and we need Ponzi schemes (the whole economy of the world is a Ponzi, I dear anybody to say otherwise with a straight face) so some of us can make profit. And we expect the people who profit to dismantle the system only because their children will live in hell?! Yeha, right....

    30. Re:Ridiculous by zhong-guo · · Score: 0

      Yet here we are with humanity intact, where life has never been better.

    31. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Packing everyone into 8x10 cells, isn't an acceptable solution to me. Any solution that doesn't allow for wide open space of undeveloped land, wilderness, forests, jungles, deserts, is suboptimal. We could cram everyone into skyscrapers that cover the entire earth in one giant planet wide city, but what kind of life would that be?

      So, 100 m^2 per person (a bit above average for housing in the USA), in 100 story skyscrapers.

      Allocate 99% of the land surface of the planet to open spaces for the population of the skyscrapers to visit for vacations and such...

      Hmm, my calculator seems to be saying we can manage a trillion or so people on the planet under those limitations....

    32. Re:Ridiculous by osgeek · · Score: 1

      The virtual reality you'll be plugged into will have as much land, wilderness, forests, jungles, etc. as you care to visit.

      Enjoy!

    33. Re:Ridiculous by jank1887 · · Score: 1

      the puppeteers did a pretty good job sorting it out.

    34. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You could fit the entire population of the earth into the state of Texas and still have plenty of elbow room. We're nowhere close to running out of space.

    35. Re:Ridiculous by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Yet here we are with humanity intact, where life has never been better.

      Tell that to those living in slums. Or in some third world country.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    36. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the mere mentioning that on the scale of the Universe there is no scarcity if we keep our number in check brings feats of rage in every economist.

      No it doesn't. You have never seen this happen even once.

    37. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You could fit the entire population of the earth into the state of Texas and still have plenty of elbow room. We're nowhere close to running out of space.

      And if the overpopulation problem was in any way about simply "running out of space", that would be a valid point.

    38. Re:Ridiculous by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, it goes back at least to Thomas Malthus in the very early 1700's. We were all going to be starving and living in permanent poverty by 1800.

      The basis of these predictions is the assumption that production grows only linearly, while consumption grows exponentially.

      All subsequent end of life as we know it predictions use the same methodology. It hasn't happened, but they never admit that there is an error in the method.

      The triumph of theory over observation.

    39. Re:Ridiculous by zhong-guo · · Score: 0

      Today's slums are yesterday's luxury caves. This years third world countries are yesterdays third world countries. Today's slums have 40" flat screen tellies, with a used ford tempo out front. It's relative economic intrepitudes differentiated over eclectic summed inversals. The sums aggregate up as the curves yield out of the last mile.

    40. Re:Ridiculous by sqrt(2) · · Score: 1

      If you had a trillion people where will all the land to grow there food come from? Or fibers to make clothes? Trees to make furniture? Farmland != undeveloped land reserved as nature preserves. Every human needs several acres at least to grow his or her food and livestock. We also need freshwater for all of them but I'll allow that the oceans could be tapped and desalinated if we had sufficient energy to do so, and solar, even passive solar desalinization, could do that.

      It's not a matter of just needing living space, although that is a concern, you also need acres and acres of land per person to support that person's life.

      --
      If you build it, nerds will come. Soylentnews.org
  6. #bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    see subject.

  7. just like "Day After Tomorrow? by gilleain · · Score: 4, Informative

    And by falling apart I don't mean charts and graphs, I mean "The Day After Tomorrow" falling apart.

    So, superstorms that freeze the Earth, and CGI wolves?

    1. Re:just like "Day After Tomorrow? by Anrego · · Score: 1

      If it gets people to recycle.. sure!

    2. Re:just like "Day After Tomorrow? by sourcerror · · Score: 1

      And temperature decreasing by 20 Celsius per second.

    3. Re:just like "Day After Tomorrow? by FredFredrickson · · Score: 1

      The CGI wolves were just a big middle finger to the audience. We were looking for an interesting movie about climate change and how the world deals with it. Instead we got a small glimpse of how a few people deal with it, and the scariest most exciting part of the movie was wolves? Wolves vs global extinction? Apparently wolves were deemed more exciting and dangerous.

      --
      Belief? Hope? Preference?The Existential Vortex
    4. Re:just like "Day After Tomorrow? by tompaulco · · Score: 1

      Also, how come the wolves, who presumably escaped from the zoo, and were very used to seeing people all the time and presumably well fed one day previously, were ravenous enough to attack a group of human beings?

      --
      If you are not allowed to question your government then the government has answered your question.
  8. I call BS by grasshoppa · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Back when I was growing up, we had those quaint little videos where the Statue of Liberty's hand was the only thing showing above the ocean. And a grandfather was passing on his wisdom to his grand daughter about what they could have done differently to avoid this coast catastrophe. Which happened in 2020.

    Now, I know we're still 10 years out, but I would expect NY to be at least a couple inches under water by now.

    Humanity will adapt and survive. That's our strength. Fossil fuels run out? We'll figure something else out..oh, we already have. It's just not cheaper than fossil fuels...yet.

    --
    Mod me down with all of your hatred and your journey towards the dark side will be complete!
    1. Re:I call BS by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 3, Insightful

      you do realize that sometimes adapting and surviving might include the fall of modern society and a return to agrarian, low power, mechanization through brute force life of the 17th century, right? are you able to survive like that? I be 99% of the western culture is not and will die.

    2. Re:I call BS by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 1

      Yes, we'll adapt, survive and figure something else out. The remaining 30 million humans and their donkeys in 2110 will be doing fine, I'm sure.

      --
      Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
    3. Re:I call BS by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Exactly. The Romans had a society and technology that was far, far more advanced than what came after. What came after was not pretty, nor fun to live in (unless you were a feudal lord perhaps).

    4. Re:I call BS by zhong-guo · · Score: 0

      Ummmm... you do realize that when you prepend "You do realize" infront of any statement, it makes you look like a complete and utter fucking douchebag, right? Cheers o/ Sry couldn't resist - you know how it is.

    5. Re:I call BS by syousef · · Score: 1

      Exactly. The Romans had a society and technology that was far, far more advanced than what came after. What came after was not pretty, nor fun to live in (unless you were a feudal lord perhaps).

      You're conveniently ignoring the fact that Romans had slaves. Do you think it was much fun living in their technologically advanced society as a slave?

      --
      These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
    6. Re:I call BS by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      So what? Now we have mechanization and automation, rendering slavery needless.

    7. Re:I call BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      you realize that western cultures were founded on WESTERN living. Eg the wild west? that's a lifestyle that yes, many (not all) of us have moved beyond, but the mentality that got us where we are is still alive and kicking. we might lose some lotus eaters, but short of biosphere destroying events that force us into caves, we are not slipping back to the 17th. that line of thought assumes that everyone goes stupid overnight.

    8. Re:I call BS by grasshoppa · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The most likely of scenarios, certainly.

      OR...and I'm just throwing this out there...OR we exploit sustainable power technology we have already developed, but at this time is too expensive when viewed against fossil fuels.

      But hey, I dig that we all like doom and gloom around here, so don't let my logic and rational discourse dissuade you from that.

      --
      Mod me down with all of your hatred and your journey towards the dark side will be complete!
    9. Re:I call BS by binaryseraph · · Score: 1

      I be 99% of the western culture is not and will die.

      Is Asia ("eastern culture") not the most overly populated place on the planet? How does western culture get singled out here?

    10. Re:I call BS by Type44Q · · Score: 1

      Now, I know we're still 10 years out, but I would expect NY to be at least a couple inches under water by now.

      Picture an ice cube sitting on a table, just beginning to melt. "It hasn't melted all the way, yet?! Guess it isn't going to."

      Capiche??

    11. Re:I call BS by grasshoppa · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Sorry, I'm not in to the whole "chicken little" thing. You want to run around panicking about the sky falling, knock yourself out.

      Me? I prefer common sense and intelligence.

      --
      Mod me down with all of your hatred and your journey towards the dark side will be complete!
    12. Re:I call BS by k8to · · Score: 1

      Only because we have cheap power sources. We'll see how that plays out.

      --
      -josh
    13. Re:I call BS by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 1

      due to the fact that most people who live in non-first world nations have not lost the ability to glean from the land.

    14. Re:I call BS by syousef · · Score: 1

      So what? Now we have mechanization and automation, rendering slavery needless.

      Computers still can't do basic tasks that an ill educated servant could handle easily.

      Show me a robot that can do all my household chores and mind my children unsupervised for a day. And I'm not talking about primitive Japanese gimmick vacuum robots.

      --
      These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
    15. Re:I call BS by MadUndergrad · · Score: 1

      You must be suffocating in your own smug, you poor thing. If you're so sure we can adapt and change, why not do it now before the shit hits the fan? The longer we wait the higher the chance of a Malthusian collapse. It's idiotic not to implement those sustainable solutions now, and yet you seem happy to put it off. Please, explicate your rationalizations for us!

    16. Re:I call BS by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      So what? What of this has any relevance to parallels between Rome and now? It's not like our current society is free of injustice.

      Anyway, the products of the Industrial Revolution are mainly responsible for the large amount of wealth we have now. The ancient Romans would think that our most impoverished citizens (in America) are rich, with plenty of food available, satellite TV, manufactured homes (trailers), cars, etc. All that is impossible without industrialization.

    17. Re:I call BS by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      We will ALWAYS have cheap power sources, as long as we have the technology to make solar cells. The sun isn't going away any time soon. Perhaps not as cheap as oil, but a lot cheaper than hordes of human laborers, which even if they're slaves, require food, water, clothing, living quarters, etc. Wind isn't going anywhere either, and is a good power source in many areas.

    18. Re:I call BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Fedual lords didnt need slaves - they had a captive local population. Slaves were expensive to feed even in Rome.

    19. Re:I call BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you understand that part of humanity's ability to "adapt and survive" entails heeding warnings of this sort?

    20. Re:I call BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Such a tragedy that malcontent naysayers (usually the ones with the biggest lip, with the least amount to back it up) will be first ones to go, hey?

    21. Re:I call BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're conveniently ignoring the fact that Romans had slaves.

      So does western society. We just keep the slaves on other continents under the rule of friendly dictators, in order to fool gullible people (you) into thinking we don't use slave labor.

    22. Re:I call BS by syousef · · Score: 1

      I wasn't talking about injustice, nor modern conveniences. These are silly straw men.

      I was talking about:

      1) Manual labour and slavery, robots replacing slaves. We're not there yet. Robots are not sophisticated enough to replace human beings for many basic tasks - espeically household tasks required for luxury.

      2) Your ridiculous claim that Romans had it good but everyone after them had it bad. You've taken the top tier of Roman society at the peak of the Roman empire, ignored the common man, and the lower and slave classes. Sure some Romans had it good for a while (at the expense of others). That doesn't mean everyone went from a life of opulence to scratching in the dirt with the fall of the Roman empire. Some of "The ancient Romans" you're talking about would have thought that slums were a huge step up from being beaten and raped on a daily basis. Others would consider rich and famous people having to do their own washing insane. You should study some history before making wild generalisations about it.

      --
      These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
    23. Re:I call BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And you are suffocating in fucktardness.

    24. Re:I call BS by grasshoppa · · Score: 1

      You pretend it's my choice. Humanity has a long and tragic history of not changing until they need to.

      Good luck fighting against that tide.

      But don't worry, even if we wait until the last drop of oil is extracted from the ground, we won't find ourselves thrust back to the 1700s, as you seem so hopeful for. The dynamics are all wrong. There are too many people, and too many options for starters.

      I don't pretend this change over would be pleasant, certainly not. But I doubt it'd be any worse than what we've already seen in the past century and a half.

      --
      Mod me down with all of your hatred and your journey towards the dark side will be complete!
    25. Re:I call BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Adapting to the consequences of our poor ressource efficiency might require becoming less ressource efficient.
      Gotcha.

    26. Re:I call BS by khallow · · Score: 1

      due to the fact that most people who live in non-first world nations have not lost the ability to glean from the land.

      Neither has the developed world. There's a lot of repositories of primitive technology and knowledge. And a typically lower population density combined with superior organization, means the developed world would have a big edge over countries which can "glean from the land", but can't glean enough from the land to avoid mass starvation.

    27. Re:I call BS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In the long term, is it good or bad?

    28. Re:I call BS by Cro+Magnon · · Score: 1

      The sun isn't going away any time soon. Perhaps not as cheap as oil, but a lot cheaper than hordes of human laborers, which even if they're slaves, require food, water, clothing, living quarters, etc

      OTOH, those human slaves still worked on the 15th consecutive cloudy, rainy day.

      Wind isn't going anywhere either, and is a good power source in many areas.

      The problem with wind is, sometimes it really ISN'T going anywhere. It's not a very good power source when it's not blowing.

      --
      Slow down, cowboy! It has been 4 hours since you last posted. You must wait another few hours.
    29. Re:I call BS by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 1

      I think you are very optimistic.

    30. Re:I call BS by khallow · · Score: 1

      I think you are very optimistic.

      I think you're fantasizing. More on that at the end.

      I thought we were talking about worst case peak oil. Honestly, the developed world is far more prepared for peak oil (and a number of other disasters) than the high population world. The problem for the latter is a combination of high population density and poor organization in the weaker countries. And a number of advanced technologies, such as computers, have a significant independence from worst case peak oil effects. Sure manufacture would be crippled, but existing computers just need electricity.

      Ok, so why do I think the developed world would be better off? Bottom line is that the developed world has better organization and resources. That allows it to deal with a number of disasters that would cripple a weaker country. In addition, several of the countries have oil reserves set aside for insurance. That allows them time to transition to whatever the new society looks like.

      Population density is another advantage that many developed world countries have. Now I live in the US. If oil production were to fail hard, one thing I could promptly do is move (if necessary, walk) to a nearby rural area and get a job as a farm worker. Beats starvation, for starters. And that's really the issue here. Why would all these people starve when they could just move to the countryside and help with the farming directly? Or I could start a farm in the suburbs or on public land. A country with a bunch of megacities, might not have enough local farming capability to feed all its inhabitants.

  9. Another low point by groomed · · Score: 5, Insightful

    What is the purpose of this post? What does it even mean? What is the purpose of posting a link to a nebulous summary of a highly suggestive report on an extremely politically charged subject on a site that bills itself "News for Nerds"?

    1. Re:Another low point by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sensationalism. Trolling. Flamebait.

      Welcome to the machine.

    2. Re:Another low point by bananaendian · · Score: 1

      What is the purpose of this post? What does it even mean? What is the purpose of posting a link to a nebulous summary of a highly suggestive report on an extremely politically charged subject on a site that bills itself "News for Nerds"?

      42

      (and that's not just a /. cliché. Douglas Adams was an advocate of conservation and made many humorous references in H2G2 to a human downfall through ecological negligence - so there!)

      --
      www.tribalnetworks.org - helping tribal people around the world to own their own means of high-tech communications
    3. Re:Another low point by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      The subject of resource consumption and exhaustion is at the core of technological civilization. It impacts every subject discussed on this site without exception, from games to your rights online.

      Not understanding this makes you an extremely poor "nerd". Willfully ignoring it makes you an imbecile. Complaining about the fact that it is even discussed makes you a real shit-head.

      So, what is the purpose of *your* post, exactly?

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    4. Re:Another low point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He's got a point that there has been an increasing amount of FUD/propaganda/crap on slashdot. Where is Taco, and why isn't he trying to save /.?

    5. Re:Another low point by PingPongBoy · · Score: 1

      What is the purpose of this post? What does it even mean? What is the purpose of posting a link to a nebulous summary of a highly suggestive report on an extremely politically charged subject on a site that bills itself "News for Nerds"?

      If nerds won't find the answer, who will? Those who used to steal our lunches at school?

      The limitations of our existence confounds the intellect. Most of the yearnings in our daydreams have gone unrequited for far too long. Be that as it may we are gladly accepting our fate to live with a small quantity of luxuries and without lack of the vast majority of our necessities, there still behooves the duty to find a solution in the vast oceans above our heads, to wit outer space. So it seems a timetable has been suggested. Twenty years hence may appear a tad arbitrary but for those who have often wondered what the ballpark might be it's a gentle cattle prod to the human race to seek cooperation in an effort for survival.

      --
      Know your pads. One time pad: good for cryptography. Two timing pad: where to take your mistress.
    6. Re:Another low point by seandiggity · · Score: 1

      Sensationalism. Trolling. Flamebait.

      Welcome to the machine.

      Slashdot comments are being posted at an enormous rate. If this trend continues, we'll need at least two Cowboy Neals to power that machine by 2030.

      --
      Geeks like to think that they can ignore politics, you can leave politics alone, but politics won't leave you alone.-rms
    7. Re:Another low point by NoseBag · · Score: 2, Informative

      Exactly. The post is crap.

      --
      Cloned foods give the statement "We had that last week!" a whole new meaning.
    8. Re:Another low point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Right, because "News for Nerds" is so well-defined that we can unambiguously say that this post is of no interest to nerds anywhere.

    9. Re:Another low point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Come on now, enjoy it, as life's just a ride anyways.

      Right now everyone knows that somethings up, and are yelling for common sense. People just need these sort of articles to kick them into gear and realize that humans need to get their shit together right now. We are rotting the place up with our presence, and will no doubt fade away from existence if society does not shape up.

      Chaos can bring a collective will, so maybe leaving it all to the last minute is for the best.

    10. Re:Another low point by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Exactly - how to discuss that fundamental issue with ppl who think space colonization or mining other planets is possible. Some even suggest iPads are a solution!!
      Calling this matter extremely politically charged is showing a believe that politics could help here and neglecting that we're in the shit and over the edge already.
      I guess no one here knows what it takes to plant food or that "stuff" can not be made without oil. Be assured the production chain starts with mining, farming and transportation - today all impossible without oil. Look back 200 years. Thats what's possible without oil.

  10. Too bad about all that crying wolf by Culture20 · · Score: 1

    If this is true, nobody's really listening. They're embroiled in their own personal battles, and they _know_ that finding a job is hard now. Any radical change 20 years away (good or bad) is almost always false. Global cooling, flying cars, personal robots, futuristic looking cars and buildings...

    1. Re:Too bad about all that crying wolf by luther349 · · Score: 1

      Global cooling, flying cars, personal robots, futuristic looking cars and buildings umm we have all of that aruldy lol. global warning = both extremes of the weather very hot or very cold. flying car check yes they do make them in fact its the top selling sport aircraft in production. basically its a spot aircraft that folds its wings can can drive street legile and all. personal robots check maybe not in everyone home but they exist. futuristic buildings and cars check. take a car from today and travel back to the 50s i bet they will call it that.

    2. Re:Too bad about all that crying wolf by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      Has one of the roadable aircraft really made it to production? and if so which one?

      The two i'm aware of are the terrafugia transition and the parajet skycar and checking their sites it appears neither has made it to production yet though they are both taking pre-orders (with substantial deposits required).

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
  11. Peak Oil not Oil Running Out by bananaendian · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Quick, someone say "we're using the resources at a larger rate than the earth can provide" ! before the cornucopians come out of their caves to declare infinite growth through infinite resources.

    The bottle maybe big but the spout is killing us.

    --
    www.tribalnetworks.org - helping tribal people around the world to own their own means of high-tech communications
    1. Re:Peak Oil not Oil Running Out by luther349 · · Score: 1

      thats been true for some time when it comes to oil. but every time they think where gonna run out say by 2013 they get lucky and find more. oil will eventually run out. and its a fact humans are growing to fast we haven't had a good plague or huge natural disaster like a meteor strike in a long time. and disasters like that bring the population down reblanacing things. 20 years is a bit to short sited. more like in a couple thousand if something huge doesn't kill off billions we would simply run out of resources and die off on are own and probably start a huge war doing it. we probly will never be off the earth completely but just be alot less of us for a wile.

    2. Re:Peak Oil not Oil Running Out by bananaendian · · Score: 1

      I'm sure something will happen in 2013...

      However meanwhile US crude production peaked in '71

      North sea (Brent) peaked for UK in '99 and for Norway in 2001

      The world production of crude oil peaked in 2005 at 73mbpd.

      We haven't been able to produce more since despite prices peaking at 140USD, Enhanced Oil Recovery and Drill Baby Drill!

      Since then we have seen the whole globe slide into recession, the first drop in vehicle miles driven since the invention of the automobile... etc.

      But I blame those pesky enviros. How dare they disturb my slumber with their 'facts'!

      --
      www.tribalnetworks.org - helping tribal people around the world to own their own means of high-tech communications
    3. Re:Peak Oil not Oil Running Out by Penguinisto · · Score: 1

      So build a bigger spout - the Solar System can support something on the order of a dozen quintillion human beings.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    4. Re:Peak Oil not Oil Running Out by bananaendian · · Score: 1

      Yes of course. Just like the Easter islanders could've sustained their food production on the island by using sea based inputs for food and fertializer, forest gardening, population control. You know, the simple easy stuff...

      ...rather than cut down the island of all trees, fight wars and starve while build hundreds of identical stone images of their gods. But we could never be that silly?

      Also while you're at it, can you suggest how to build a bigger spout for crude oil production - you know - extraction of hydrocarbons from the earth which are the main liquid fuel source that runs the global economy. Cause, you know, the petrolium engineers have been having an awful time lately, since 2005 to be precise when their production number peaked at 73 mbpd and has been declining ever since. You know. Something in the order of magnitude better than the Enhanced Recovery techniques that have been applied on all the declining oil fields of the world for the past 20 years... You see, we might still need cheap plentiful oil for a while in order to build all those space ships that will take us to your Star Trek universe or Sugarcandy Mountain or what was it?

      --
      www.tribalnetworks.org - helping tribal people around the world to own their own means of high-tech communications
    5. Re:Peak Oil not Oil Running Out by khallow · · Score: 1

      Quick, someone say "we're using the resources at a larger rate than the earth can provide" ! before the cornucopians come out of their caves to declare infinite growth through infinite resources.

      I doubt you can point us to a "cornucopian" who thinks there is infinite supply of oil or tungsten. The only people that I know of who claim there are "unlimited resources" typically speak of intangibles like ideas, inventing things, etc. In Slashdot land, this sort of argument is a strawman argument (here the strawman is the alleged people who believe in the stilted fantasies of infinite growth and infinite resources).

      Then you imply that because there isn't infinite resources in which to drive infinite growth, that we are using up resources "faster" than the Earth "can provide". That does not follow.

    6. Re:Peak Oil not Oil Running Out by khallow · · Score: 1

      Also while you're at it, can you suggest how to build a bigger spout for crude oil production - you know - extraction of hydrocarbons from the earth which are the main liquid fuel source that runs the global economy.

      Biofuel, synthetic petroleum, and electricity. Next.

  12. We will only need 0.2 Earths by 2030 by blai · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    if Americans all die tomorrow.

    --
    In soviet Russia, God creates you!
    1. Re:We will only need 0.2 Earths by 2030 by SupremoMan · · Score: 1

      Parent is accurate. The ensuing wars from USA's demise would severely deplete Human populations across the globe. Think how fast China would invade Taiwan. And Mongolia for that matter. How quickly would North Korea roll South. WWRD? What Would Russia Do? Say bye bye to Georgia, that's for sure. Venezuela invading Columbia? No that would never happen... Iran invading Iraq... I wonder. And these are just off the top of my head.

    2. Re:We will only need 0.2 Earths by 2030 by blai · · Score: 1

      1) It was not flamebait, but with emphasis on USA's resource consumption
      2) My comment does not specify methods of death, so no war is quite needed to reduce the American population (for minimal impact, you can argue that a single knife can be passed around the US population, each person kills someone and hands the knife to another person, costing a total of $1.)

      --
      In soviet Russia, God creates you!
    3. Re:We will only need 0.2 Earths by 2030 by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      It was not flamebait, but with emphasis on USA's resource consumption

      Which really isn't that much more obnoxious than the EU or Japan, particularly from the perspective of someone living in the third world. Why didn't you include the EU in your list of places where the people should all die?

      (for minimal impact, you can argue that a single knife can be passed around the US population, each person kills someone and hands the knife to another person, costing a total of $1.)

      That'll last until you come across someone with a gun. We have a lot of guns in the US ya know ;)

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    4. Re:We will only need 0.2 Earths by 2030 by m6ack · · Score: 1

      Then that would mean that the USA is only working for the greater good!!! By depleting the population of the world of foriegn religious stupid people and replacing it with fewer of our own, we are truly doing something good, noble and worthwhile for the planet... I feel goosebumps!!!

  13. This just in....somebody wants money! by nefus · · Score: 1

    Gimme a break. Somebody is just trying to get a buck in their pocket. Fiddlesticks I say!

    1. Re:This just in....somebody wants money! by ParkedStar · · Score: 1

      Disaster sells. Just look at the money wasted on reversing "Global Warming".

      --
      Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. -Albert Einstein
  14. heh... by pastafazou · · Score: 1

    "population control"
    freudian slip there, lefty? Think you meant to say "birth control"....

    1. Re:heh... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Here's your population control. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TMTrpugT0E

    2. Re:heh... by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

      Your link requires a YouTube account.

  15. Misleading by ian(at)union.io · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This has F-U-D written all over it. Yes, we might need 2.75 Earths worth of *some* minerals or resources, such as tungsten or cork trees, in 20 years, but we certainly do not need 2.75 Earths worth of other, vaster resources, such as breathable air or silicon. To say that we'd need two Earths in order to quench our ravenous thirst for light bulb filaments is overkill, and certainly does more to make me discount these studies than think poorly of how humanity manages the resources we have.

    1. Re:Misleading by scorp1us · · Score: 5, Informative

      This was soured from a WWF report. The same WWF that has been making dire predictions form day 1, and even managed to get their non-peer-reviewed policy papers (it isn't even science) into the IPCC reports. Wherein, recently, the IPCC has has to issue retractions for it not being up to scientific scrutiny.

      In short, nothing to see here, move along. It's just WWF campaigning for more money.

      --
      Slashdot's rate-of-post filter: Preventing you from posting too many great ideas at once.
    2. Re:Misleading by AK+Marc · · Score: 1, Informative

      I don't care who sues who for what, WWF == Hulk Hogan.

    3. Re:Misleading by Jeff+DeMaagd · · Score: 1

      What often tends to happen is when some resources are in true dire depletion, people move on to other ways to make do with other resources. Sometimes previously uneconomic mines become viable when the value of a resource rises due to scarcity. With regards to tungsten, I would expect that LED lights would largely replace the use of tungsten filaments long before then.

    4. Re:Misleading by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Wait.. So, you're saying the WWF is every bit as shady and self-promoting as the WWE?

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    5. Re:Misleading by noidentity · · Score: 2, Interesting

      In short, nothing to see here, move along. It's just WWF campaigning for more money.

      What the heck does this have to do with wrestling and costumes? I guess I need to keep up with the WWF better.

    6. Re:Misleading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't care who sues who for what, or who existed first, I have bad taste in entertainment and it affects my reading comprehension.

      FTFY. How did your post get marked informative?

    7. Re:Misleading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because it was informative (unless you're too stupid to grasp the information it imparts.)

    8. Re:Misleading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not only misleading but paid for and publicized by people who would like nothing better than to control every aspect of you life. I know some people reading this have no concept of freedom or manhood and never will. I am not a drone, I am not one of you subjects, I am a man.

      When we see these reports they are publicized by Democrats. My point is it is impossible to be a man and be a Democrat. Democrats believe in the "state". Democrats believe in control. By believing in the state you believe the government will provide for you and as such government will control you. A man by definition is the opposite for he provides for himself and his family. A man understands these are all just scare tactics. A man is not afraid of the boogeyman much less the government fear campaign. A man stands above the rest. Be a man. Don't be another statistic of their pussification and subjugation of the world.

    9. Re:Misleading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It makes sense, though. Between the global cooling that turned the earth into an icicle in the 70's, the hole in the ozone that made the surface of the earth unlivable due to solar radiation in the 80's, the year we ran out of oil in the 90's, and the global warming that fried the earth to a crisp in the 2000's, of course we need a new planet to live on!

    10. Re:Misleading by osgeek · · Score: 1

      Anyone not using Ted Danson for dire climate predictions is just doing it wrong.

    11. Re:Misleading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What does that have to do with Democrats? How much freedom has been lost to the fear of Muslims propagated by the Republicans (and some Dem's) over the past decade? Patriot Act anyone?

  16. Easier solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Limit population growth, but no, we can't have that.

    One child per couple one would lower the population over a few generations to more sustainable number.

    1. Re:Easier solution by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      One child per couple one would lower the population over a few generations to more sustainable number.

      Perhaps you should ask the Chinese how wonderful 'population control' has been? First Mao demands more kids to fight the EVIL AMERICANS, and their population explodes. Then they decide that actually they don't have the ability to feed that many people so they'd better stop and demand that Chinese couples only have one child. Now they have a rapidly aging population with about 50,000,000 more men than women.

    2. Re:Easier solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Following an outdated dogma that advocated male over female children is not my problem. Stop tossing your female children off bridges and the male/female ratio naturally balances itself out.

    3. Re:Easier solution by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Following an outdated dogma that advocated male over female children is not my problem.

      Of course it's your problem. Whenever the government demands that people do something they don't want to do, there are unexpected consequences of this kind; this is why just about anything government does turns out to be a disaster in the long run.

    4. Re:Easier solution by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 2, Insightful

      an an entire generation that has no aunts, or uncles, no siblings, and a tradition of the children taking care of the parents in old age.

    5. Re:Easier solution by tverbeek · · Score: 1

      True: China's approach to population control has been a disaster. Fortunately for the world, there are other ideas for how to run a society.

      For example, a less authoritarian approach would do it through incentives and disincentives. Start with free family-planning education and low-cost contraception. In places where couple have lots of children to work the farm, introduce mechanization to make that unnecessary. In places where they do so to ensure that they have someone to care for them when they get old, offer better geriatric care. In a nutshell: stop rewarding people for breeding like fruit flies, and start rewarding them for pulling out once in a while.

      You'll still have certain religious leaders who forbid contraception (RCC) or encourage large families so that more souls can be baptized (LDS), but history has shown that in societies where lots of children are no longer an economic necessity (e.g. Europe, Can/US) the population growth rate drops off regardless. It is possible to control population growth, and even begin to reduce population in a slow, controlled trend. There are countries that (intentionally or not) are already doing it. World population is still going up, but the rate at which it's increasing has finally begun to go down in the last few decades. We just need to take what we've learned from countries that have done the job badly (e.g. PRC), and what we've learned from countries which are doing it better (e.g. Japan, Italy), and apply those lessons elsewhere.

      --
      http://alternatives.rzero.com/
    6. Re:Easier solution by wierd_w · · Score: 1

      The evil bastard in me tells me that this only INCREASES the efficiency of the population reduction, since it not only reduces the total number of generation 1 offspring, but exponentially reduces the number of potential generation 2 and latter offspring through reproductive scarcity.

      It will cause you to reach your target population cap AHEAD of schedule, at which point you can cease the population control measures.

      This is only a problem if you intend to leverage that large population in the intermediate timeframe (like china does--in very large factory cities.)

    7. Re:Easier solution by Courageous · · Score: 1

      Perhaps you should ask the Chinese how wonderful 'population control' has been? ... Now they have a rapidly aging population with about 50,000,000 more men than women.

      Dude, I don't need to ask them their opinion to know what a wonderful means of population control they have. Men can't get pregnant. Just a little FYI for ya there. :-)

      C//

    8. Re:Easier solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We really need to sterilize the niggers and spics. AIDS is good, but it doesn't kill fast enough and liberals want to spend money curing it (ignoring evolution and the natural survival of the fittest in favor of their own version of intelligent design).

    9. Re:Easier solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Neanderfucks like y'all have to go first.

    10. Re:Easier solution by garwain · · Score: 1

      In my region (southern Quebec), I can see one easy solution that would limit population growth in a hurry. CUT SOCIAL ASSISTANCE! I know a lot of people who are under 30 and have 4-5 children, and are still going at it like there is no tomorrow. why? because they are on social assistance, and the more children they have, the more the government gives them. 1 single person on welfare can hardly survive, but a couple, with 3 children have a decent income, better than a lot of working couples with no kids. One single mother, with 5 kids, that I know actually has a better income than I do, and does nothing. sure, she watches the kids, but they are in daycare during the day so she can shop, and whatever, and her mother watches them in the evenings so she can go out. I work to pay my bills, support my parents, and barly have enough to get by!

  17. It may happen one day... by 0123456 · · Score: 4, Informative

    But I still remember in the 70s how oil was going to run out by 1990; we seem to have had only twenty years' supply of oil left for as long as I remember. Similarly, half the world was going to have starved by 2000, but instead we've seen population continue to increase.

    The hair-shirt left have cried disaster so many times that it's impossible to take them seriously anymore.

    1. Re:It may happen one day... by Penguinisto · · Score: 3, Insightful

      To be fair, the radical (on either side of a debate) always have a knack for exaggeration. This shouldn't deter us from taking at least some measures towards better efficiency and at the same time expanding resources available.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    2. Re:It may happen one day... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Half the world did starve.. Much more than half the world is starving right now.

    3. Re:It may happen one day... by Khazunga · · Score: 5, Informative

      You are probably referring to Hubbert's Peak. His prediction was for peak production in the US, and was mostly on target (which is admirable for a prediction 50 year ahead). The curve has been adapted to several regions, with correct predictions. The peak global production, using Hubbert's curve, is predicted for 2005, and it seems to have indeed ocurred.

      Mind you, peak production isn't the same as "running out". There's still a lot of oil out there. It's just that now it's clear we must find an alternative, and we have a couple of decades left.

      --
      If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you
    4. Re:It may happen one day... by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Twenty years of proven reserves, estimated. But I think the number is slowly slipping as it becomes harder and harder to find new reserves.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    5. Re:It may happen one day... by Nazlfrag · · Score: 1

      Well there's nothing radical in saying that as population increased so has lifespan and living standards, we have seen a decrease in starvation and lack of clean drinking water, more people have energy for things like refrigeration, heating, phones and computers. Humanity has never been better and if the next 100 years go like the last 100 we will have solved most of the problems associated with poverty. The modern day Malthusians are just a bunch of luddite pessimists who refuse to look at the empirical facts.

    6. Re:It may happen one day... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      You're joking right? Canada has 500 years worth of oil reserves at the current rate of consumption.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    7. Re:It may happen one day... by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Eh.. 500 years of oil, or 500 years of fossil fuels? At Canada's rate of consumption, or the world's? (many countries do not have extensive oil sands...)

      I think you will find that total worldwide proven reserves are much less than 500 years, simply because it's not worth it to bother exploring that far out. That doesn't necessarily say anything about how much is actually present, of course.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    8. Re:It may happen one day... by khallow · · Score: 1

      This shouldn't deter us from taking at least some measures towards better efficiency and at the same time expanding resources available.

      And what makes you think we are in any way "deterred" from this course of action? As I see it, we've made plenty of progress towards dealing with a reduction in oil production.

    9. Re:It may happen one day... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He may have been talking about The Limits to Growth, a widely-cited 1972 dead-tree tome predicting doom for us unless we sacrificed our cows to Gaia, or something like that.

      From wiki:

      Critics also allege that the authors of the report claimed to accept that the then-known resources of minerals and energy could, and would, grow in the future, and consumption growth rates could also decline. The theoretical expiry time for each resource would therefore need to be updated as new discoveries, technologies and trends came to light. To overcome this uncertainty, they offered an upper value for the expiry time, calculated as if the known resources were multiplied by two. Even in that case, assuming continuation of the average rate of consumption growth, virtually all major minerals and energy resources would expire within 100 years of publication (i.e., by 2070). Even if reserves were two times larger than expected, they state, ongoing growth in the consumption rate would still lead to the relatively rapid exhaustion of those reserves.

    10. Re:It may happen one day... by quenda · · Score: 1

      Don't use the exaggerations as an excuse to ignore the real problem. The US did "run out" of oil, just a bit later thanks to Alaska discoveries. Unless Russia agrees to sell Siberia too, that's not likely to happen again.
      Imports are now double production. The consequences of this are in your newspaper every day.

    11. Re:It may happen one day... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Similarly, half the world was going to have starved by 2000, but instead we've seen population continue to increase."

      Holy shit, this got modded up? Have you not seen any of the rest of the world? Half the world DOES starve to death regularly!

    12. Re:It may happen one day... by haruchai · · Score: 1

      At the same time, infinite, cheap, clean energy ( aka fusion) has been about 10-20 years away for about 40 years now.
      It's not only the doomsayers who can't get it right.

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
    13. Re:It may happen one day... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

      Yes I know, it's wikipedia. I'm not a fan of it, but that's it.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    14. Re:It may happen one day... by dylan_- · · Score: 1

      You're joking right? Canada has 500 years worth of oil reserves at the current rate of consumption.

      No, Canada has 500 years worth of oil at the current rate of production.

      It has 179 billion barrels of oil reserves. Global oil consumption is 85 millions barrels a day (and increasing). That means that Canada could supply the world with oil for less than 6 years.

      --
      Igor Presnyakov stole my hat
    15. Re:It may happen one day... by Idiomatick · · Score: 1

      I'll add to Khazunga's comment saying that starvation was also a very real issue. But we worked out solutions. Starvation was increasing at a dizzying rate until the 50s came around with the start to the Green Revolution. Food production has increased 10 fold since then. This avoided MILLIONS of unnecessary deaths.

      The hair-shirt left you decry seem to have foresight and solutions while the right don't even show hindsight.

    16. Re:It may happen one day... by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Ahh, answer "c" none of the above:

      500 years at Canada's current production rate.

      Which, if Canada were to replace the other 16 of the top 17 oil producing nations with just her own capacity, would be just under 3 years, according to the chart there.

      And again, the number on that chart was much lower than 500 years of world wide production in currently proven reserves. It was an order of magnitude less.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
  18. Regulation of births is needed. by Bluude · · Score: 3, Insightful

    So when are we going to start regulating birth rates? I know this is seen as racist by many, since the minorities are the main ones reproducing at an alarming rate, with obvious octomom exceptions, but it is about the future of our planet and the survival of our race at this point. Race isn't even a factor.

    1. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Zocalo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Short of breakthroughs in both energy and food production, a reduction in the global birth rate is the only other solution to this problem, and even then it's going to take time to play out. It's also going to be financially painful for at least one generation as the number of young working is disproportionate with the number of people who are too old and will need to be cared for (or euthanized for our Soylent Green).

      Unfortunately, when you've still got senior religious leaders saying that contraception is bad, even in areas where STDs are rife, and few countries able to even have discussions about the kind of draconian measures that China enacted with its "One Child" policy without a huge backlash, then that reduction is just not going to happen voluntarily. That just leaves it happening regardless if/when we eventually do run out of resources, and as usual it's the poor who are going to come off the worst.

      Still, I'm pretty sure that the ones who are preaching against contraception now are going to be the first to make hefty donations when we have tens of millions of children starving to death. /sarcasm.

      --
      UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
    2. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 1

      octomom is a minority. She is Hispanic.

      birth rates track closer to socio-economic levels than race.

      The poor and stupid reproduce at much higher rates than the well off and smart.

    3. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Penguinisto · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Regulate them by increasing affluence. Worked for Europe and the US (and various other first-world regions of the world...)

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    4. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Really? She looks Hispanic, but "Suleman" doesn't sound like a Hispanic name to me, nor does "Nadia".

    5. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Short of breakthroughs in both energy and food production, a reduction in the global birth rate is the only other solution to this problem

      No, widespread famine, death, pestilence, impoverishment, and war are also all on the table. One reason I don't complain too loudly about the USA's grossly bloated military sucking the wind out of the economy is that, if (when) push comes to shove, I'd prefer to live in the country that has the most weapons. Sad but true.

    6. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So when are we going to start regulating birth rates?

      After we restrict immigration? Sorry, but I am not going to give up my right to have children "to restrict population growth" when the government is still favouring balls-to-the-wall immigration.

      P.S. I live in Canada.

      Realistically, it will take a mass famine/starvation in the 1st world before any population restriction is explored. Western economies have been based on expanding populations (since the 40s) to drive growth in both consumption and in labor.

    7. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by melikamp · · Score: 1

      Some say, educating and liberating women also helps.

    8. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Courageous · · Score: 1

      See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility

      Much of the world has no need to regulate birth rates. If you read down to the American section, you'll see we have a replacement rate of 1.9. 2.0 is break even. Much of Europe has lower numbers. If US population is a concern of yours, you have no real choice but to lobby for an end to immigration, because all of our growth actually comes from that.

      C//

    9. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      War as a population control measure is frighteningly effective. Short on resources, your neighbor has them, and you have a bigger gun? hmm.....

    10. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by DarkOx · · Score: 0

      Or instead of limiting the birth rate, we can do what we have always done in the past and have us a little war, or just let nature deal with it and let a little plague run ramp-it for a while.

      Truly I think either are actually better I don't trust humans to wisely manage the gene pool or administer a system in an equatable way. Wars and plagues are probably more fair than anything government could "give" us and likely better for the long term survival prospects of the human race, as both select for the fittest individuals in a way.

      --
      Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
    11. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by drsquare · · Score: 2, Informative

      But increasing affluence means more use of resources.

    12. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Galvatron · · Score: 2

      WTF? How did this neo-Nazi crap get modded "insightful"? Dismissing eugenics not on moral grounds, but on the grounds that we won't get it right, and instead favoring war and plague to weed out the "unfit"? I can only hope this is a troll and the mod's finger slipped...

      --
      "The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than that of whether a submarine can swim" -EWD
    13. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by khallow · · Score: 1

      But increasing affluence means more use of resources.

      Guess we'll just have to figure out how to use those resources more efficiently. If only we had an example of a culture that used resources efficiently. Unfortunately, the only examples we have of such cultures are typically less than a few thousands years old and number, perhaps, in the meager thousands.

    14. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Stop giving tax credits to families with children. Give tax breaks to singles and childless married couples in the form of rebates and extra deductions.

    15. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      2.0 is not break even due to pre-reproduction mortality, failure to reproduce by some portion of the adult population etc.

      I think it is closer to 2.2 children per reproducing couple.

    16. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by martas · · Score: 1

      there's nothing wrong with the main stated purpose of eugenics. quite the opposite, it's an admirable and noble idea. the problem is that its real counterparts have always been twisted into horrible, racist, self-serving reflections of the idea. that's exactly part of the GP's point - we never got it right, and probably won't. let nature handle it.

    17. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 1

      try reading her Wiki page. Her real last name is Gutierrez.

    18. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      You should read it yourself. I just did, and her last name is only Gutierrez because she married a guy by that name (who she later divorced, because they couldn't get her pregnant). Her birth name was Nadia Denise Suleman, the only child of Edward Doud Suleman and Angela Victoria Suleman. Those don't sound like Hispanic names at all.

      I think she just happens to look Hispanic. It's easy to do, since it's not that different from "white" people, as Hispanics carry a varying amount of European blood, either Spanish or Portuguese. Go to those countries, and you'll notice many of them don't look that different from other Europeans. Neither do many Mexicans, though, like here, it seems the darker-skinned ones, who probably have more native-(Central)American blood, are usually the poorer ones, and the lighter European-looking ones are richer. Try watching some Mexican soap operas some time. All the women are as white as I am (and I'm so white I don't even tan, I just burn in the sun).

    19. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Galvatron · · Score: 1

      Actually, there's something very wrong with it. It mistakenly identifies evolution, a scientific theory, as a moral principle. It would be as if someone argued that we shouldn't build houses because the second law of thermodynamics instructs us to strive toward maximum entropy.

      Over the last century, people in developed countries have been living longer, getting stronger (see the constantly advancing Olympic records), and smarter (the Flynn effect). If we can achieve all these improvements with technology and environmental changes, what exactly would the point of eugenics be?

      --
      "The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than that of whether a submarine can swim" -EWD
    20. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by martas · · Score: 1

      I've heard that argument before, and I don't agree with it. I misspoke earlier - I should've said that I believe the idea behind eugenics is sound - clearly depending on one's beliefs it can be pointless or downright wrong (for example, if hold preservationist beliefs, e.g. due to religion). Personally, I don't necessarily believe there's any inherent value in pushing the limits of our physical/mental abilities, improving health (i.e. survival rates), etc. That being said, it seems to me that if, as a species, we were to be choosing a goal, then such improvements should be at the top of the list, simply because we have much less evidence (i.e. 0) to believe in the value of any other kind of objective mankind has ever come up with.

      Now, you're right, even without resorting to eugenics, there's still a lot of room for improvement. But as anyone with rudimentary knowledge in biology and psychology knows, every attribute of an individual is influenced by two factors - "nature" (i.e. genome) and "nurture" (i.e. environment). Every improvement achieved until now has been due to changes in the second category. But there are limits to what can be achieved by just optimizing that aspect. We're not at the limits yet, but from a resource allocation perspective, the marginal benefits are becoming smaller and smaller - as a model, just picture performing gradient descent on a bivariate function while keeping one of the variables fixed. A point comes when it makes much more sense to relax that variable, than to continue making changes to the other.

      This is of course just a very vague, 50 thousand foot view argument, but I think it illustrates my point.

    21. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Sure as I know anything, I know this: they will try again. Maybe on another world, maybe on this very ground swept clean. A year from now? ten? They'll swing back to the belief that they can make people... better. And I do not hold to that."

        - Malcolm Reynolds

    22. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 1

      Better yet.. she is Arab... still a minority.

    23. Re:Regulation of births is needed. by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Sorry, but Edward and Angela Victoria don't sound like Arab names to me.

  19. Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by RyanFenton · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Actually, our planet should have been out of easily consumable resources a LONG time ago - but thanks to the Green Revolution of artificial fertilizers and improved farming techniques, scientists like Norman Borlaug have saved more lives than any other group in the history of the world.

    The same thing needs to keep happening if we're going to keep increasing our population. We're going to have to convert more sunlight into usable foods, using more than just simple soil in order to keep scaling.

    Meanwhile, the "organic food" folks insist that food must be grown using only slightly modified classical techniques, for a variety of reasons from vitamin density (overstated relative to studies, at best), to mystical mumbo jumbo like vibrations and auras. The other argument is that a given technique is sustainable for a given circumstance, or allows for smaller farms - but none of them are sustainable across the populations modern farming techniques functionally do now.

    It'll be interesting to see whether populations will continue to curve towards neutral growth on their own, or what decisions people will come to. I certainly hope the Malthusian worldview doesn't come back into dominance.

    Ryan Fenton

    1. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Fnkmaster · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You are painting with an excessively broad brush here.

      You don't need mystical mumbo jumbo to not want pesticides all over your fruits and vegetables.

      You don't need mystical mumbo jumbo to not want your chicken and cows raised in factory farming conditions, fed hormones, antibiotics, and the cheapest foodstuff imaginable to fatten them up as quickly as possible.

      Why do you need mystical mumbo jumbo to be aware of the major nutritional differences between wild-caught fish and farmed fish, that are principally due to their different feeding habits.

      So yeah, some of the stuff labeled "organic" that's basically identical to conventional stuff may be a rip-off, but there is plenty for a purely scientific, rational-minded person to critique in our industrial food system and plenty of reasons to avoid certain food produced by them.

    2. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 4, Informative

      At present rate we have what ... 100 years of potash in the ground? At some point we will have to sustain the production with only atmospheric nitrogen.

      Just because the same kind of revolutions need to keep happening doesn't mean they will ... all our revolutions up till now have dependent on non renewable resources, if we don't have a sustainable revolution in energy production in the near future (and I don't think liquid sodium reactors qualify) we will be fucked. Because all the other potential revolutions will almost certainly depend on that, it's not going to come from mining non renewable resources any more.

    3. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      The problem is sustainability. The land can't support such dense yields in the same area forever; plants pull nutrients from the ground. If we continue as we are, much of our current farmland will turn to deserts.

    4. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by socsoc · · Score: 1

      Hey, is your name Ryan Fenton? I wasn't sure cause I have sigs turned off, but it's your user name and you included it as a pseduo-sig in your post. So are you Ryan Fenton cause I'm not totally clear.

    5. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by AK+Marc · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Meanwhile, the "organic food" folks insist that food must be grown using only slightly modified classical techniques, for a variety of reasons from vitamin density (overstated relative to studies, at best), to mystical mumbo jumbo like vibrations and auras. The other argument is that a given technique is sustainable for a given circumstance, or allows for smaller farms - but none of them are sustainable across the populations modern farming techniques functionally do now.

      They are sustainable. They could easily feed the planet. And they are based in real science (artificial hormones are still present in the meat when cooked, even if there isn't proof that they affect humans). You are arguing that increasing pesticide use is good for people. That's not true. Reduced pesticides, reduced hormones, and reduced water usage will improve the food and the areas where the food is grown/raised. The USA could supply just as much meat as it does now if all the cattle were banned from hormones, required a disease to be given antibiotics (rather than using them as preventative medicine), and were no longer fed grains they aren't built to eat. The issue is that it would be more expensive. And there's real science that supports the idea that our current regular practices are unhealthy (or higher risk) for the cattle and the humans consuming them. No mumbo jumbo required.

    6. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by LordLucless · · Score: 1

      Yeah, and when we crap it all out, we re-supply the land with nutrients. It's cyclic - it's not like the nutrients are gone forever.

      --
      Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
    7. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by ParkedStar · · Score: 1

      Meanwhile, the "organic food" folks insist that food must be grown using only slightly modified classical techniques, for a variety of reasons from vitamin density (overstated relative to studies, at best), to mystical mumbo jumbo like vibrations and auras.

      In all my readings of serious, scientific organic farming* I have -never- come across techniques regarding "vibrations and auras". Clearly, you seek to dismiss organic farming with a lack of understanding. I believe organic farming is sustainable in terms of small-scale backyard veggie-garden usage, and maybe small-scale village hobby farmers, however to keep up with demand, it is not a viable option with the likes of Supermarkets monopolizing the food supply industry with commercialized, genetically-modified foods, and also due to the susceptibility of organic crops to pests and droughts etc. In our modern day society it is just so much easier to ditch organic farming on large-scales; being highly susceptible to droughts and pests etc. does not look favourable to the eyes of farmers and investors with other less-risky (in the short term) options available. * en.wiktionary.org/wiki/organic_farming

      --
      Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. -Albert Einstein
    8. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So I guess your hero deserves a medal for keeping the bubble from bursting sooner and continuing to inflate, and putting off the inevitable? It'll be better for 10 billion people to starve some years from now rather than the 5 billion who might have starved without the industrialization of agriculture?

    9. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by AnonGCB · · Score: 1

      While some people are exactly as you describe them, some people (like myself) prefer organic stuff because it tastes better, simple as that. Doesn't mean I WON'T eat non-organic stuff, but given the choice I prefer organic carrots, for example. Maybe smaller, but far tastier. YMMV of course.

      --
      http://CryoLANparty.com/ A lan I'm staff on!
    10. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The green revolution is also one of the most threatened processes affected by a reduction in available oil.
      It was the reason we were able to avoid a http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe

    11. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by ChromeAeonium · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      No, not really. Organic is still mumbo jumbo. You're assuming that organic all but invented those things...contrary to popular organic opinion, they did not. They just latch onto them. Sure, they make some good claims that are scientifically verifiable, like the importance of maintaining a healthy microbiological community in the soil, the need for biodiversity in the food supply to prevent disease, and promoting low input renewable biological techniques like crop rotation and companion planting methods, but then they heap on the mumbo jumbo with their asinine fear of chemicals (yes, all of them...organic proponents seem unaware that naturally occurring compounds like menthol hesperidin, and capsaicin are also chemicals), their anti-science luddite attacks on genetically modified crops (which have reduced pesticide use and soil damage by way of no till agriculture), and their claims that a plant really cares if a nutrient ion came from horse crap or a nutrient salt.

      They're like the alternative medicine woowoos; sure, eating right and getting exercise is a good idea, but using a twig to cure cancer is not, and in both cases, that they are right about some things does not mean that they aren't using magical thinking and pre-scientific nonsense. Any correct conclusion they arrive at they come to for the wrong reasons. For example, they may be right in their claims of organic producing more antioxidants, however, this is not because they're magically natural and natural is better in every way, but because stressed plants tend to make more of those, and organic plants are usually going to live a tougher life. So, they might be correct, but for the wrong reason. To use an analogy; just because a compulsive gambler wins every now and again doesn't mean they don't have a problem.

      Now, while factory farming has plenty of flaws, and the antibiotic use is indeed troubling to say the least, hormones, heck, you eat plenty of those to begin with in meat, and pesticides, organic uses them too, they just avoid any modern one that has gone through safety studies. Be cautious sure, but make sure you're not getting you information about any given hormone or pesticide from some scientifically illiterate reactionary source.

    12. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but that's because it's cheaper to bring in artificial fertilizer than to process our wastes and send them back to the farm. In the future, if it really becomes necessary, closed-loop farming is always an option. It'll maybe be like coke bottles used to be: you pay a deposit on those veggies, and get your deposit back when you leave your other deposit.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
    13. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by ChromeAeonium · · Score: 1

      At some point we will have to sustain the production with only atmospheric nitrogen.

      Maybe it could be done. With proper crop rotation, crops modified with nitrogen use efficiency technology,, or inoculations of nitrogen fixing bacteria we can at the very least reduce the need of nitrogen input, hopefully to sustainable levels.

      The next revolution can happen, but it will be biological, not chemical.

    14. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by ChromeAeonium · · Score: 1

      Ever seen the episode of Penn & Teller where they fed people an organic banana and a regular banana. People generally found the organic one to taste quite a bit better. They fed them two halves of the same banana. Maybe the organic food you're getting is local, or is a superior variety. Sounds a bit dubious that it would taste better just because it was only fertilized with cow crap and only sprayed with naturally occurring pesticides.

    15. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by wierd_w · · Score: 1

      This would only be true if human effluents were reprocessed as fertilizers.

      They are not. it is a health and sanitation issue, and is actually ILLEGAL in many parts of the US to use human waste products as fertilizers, even after heavy reprocessing to the point where it is basically refined chemicals.

      Then of course, you have all those bodies in metal boxes put beneath the soil, awaiting a magical resurrection. Those resources are effectively out of the natural recycling program; EG, rotting and or being eaten by other things, and scattered about like every other large organism's corpses are.

    16. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, I'm Ryan Fenton, he's an impostor.

    17. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by AnonGCB · · Score: 1

      I grow my own stuff, so yeah it's probably better - hanging pots helps keeps pests away and other than that I'm just lucky I suppose.

      --
      http://CryoLANparty.com/ A lan I'm staff on!
    18. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      your compliments to the green revolution are on a very small timescale.

      history books may yet villify the green revolution for a famine of an unthinkable scale...with luck a softer landing through witnessing it happen one location or continent at a time could give some time to rekey rethink this practice on a world scale...with luck. even a soft landing will likely be painful.

      Current green revolution practices degrade soil quality in a terrible way.read up on soil erosion, water tables and where their headed andhow they are being permanently damaged... the theres soil salinity as a result of irrigation. nevermind pecticide accumulation in the environment, monoculture and the enivibility of pesticide resistant bugs, molds & whatnot adapting to mono-cultures.

      i don't want to sound pessimistic i want to be realistic. our food production right now is unsustainable. its insanity to HOPE technology will fix these impending problems,and just keep encouraging population growth in the meantime.

      Government should be taking action now to discourage population growth. but that wont get you votes....

    19. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by mdmkolbe · · Score: 1

      You don't need mystical mumbo jumbo to not want pesticides all over your fruits and vegetables.

      But organic farmers do use pesticides. They limit themselves to non-synthetic pesticides so they can be organic, but those "organic" pesticides don't work as well as the newer synthetic pesticides so they actually have to spray more pesticides than a non-organic farmer.

      Not wanting pesticides in your food is not a reason for a "purely scientific, rational-minded person" to prefer organic.

    20. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The issue is that it would be more expensive.

      Looky there you just found the answer. Make it less expensive and it will happen. Until then you can talk till yer blue in the face and it will accomplish nothing. Beyond the sense of self importance from knowing yer right... and the occasional lay from hippie chicks that hear your impassioned rhetoric. (a noble cause in and of itself) You can't make your goal be the end all be all, it's got to be a side effect. Find what makes the people you want to influence tick and influence that in such a way that the side effect is you get what you want. Only way it's ever going to happen.

    21. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      "Cheating" is always cheaper. Sell meat by the pound? Find a way to get more water in it and sell the same thing for more. If you don't cheat your customers, you'll have higher prices and go out of business. So they crack down on people injecting water into meat (not because it's illegal, but because selling something without a contents list showing the added water is illegal). The line of "cheat" is blurred. I submit that if you are required to give antibiotics as a preventative measure, you are cheating. I submit that if you are adding hormones to the meat without adding it on the label, you are cheating.

      A separate question is whether such cheating is or should be regulated in some way.

    22. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Blackajack · · Score: 1

      At present rate we have what ... 100 years of potash in the ground? At some point we will have to sustain the production with only atmospheric nitrogen.

      If you wanted to see your local organic farmer toting bags of industrial nitrogen fertilizer, you're in for a disappointment.. :P http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/Nitrogen+Fixation

      But about energy, you're quite right. Unless we find some new source of energy, or notably improve an old one, most of us will be looking at substantial reduction of material standards of life. Personally, I don't think we will have any magical tokamak of legend suddenly pop out of some phycisist's head.

      We will just have to blow on the same coal, so to speak, improve energy efficiency, curtail frivolous usage, invest in renewables and hope that it will tide us over until we have usable fusion tech.

    23. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      "You don't need mystical mumbo jumbo to not want pesticides all over your fruits and vegetables."

      Which will still be used (even if they are 'organic'). Because it's too labor-intensive to harrow fields manually. A bit of GMO can help tremendously here, but no, it's not 'orgainc'.

      "Why do you need mystical mumbo jumbo to be aware of the major nutritional differences between wild-caught fish and farmed fish, that are principally due to their different feeding habits."

      I see that you fancy some mercury in your wild-caught fish? Nice taste, sir.

      A lot of 'organic' stuff is crap. It's even more unsustainable because of very high amount of labor (fuel, land, water) required. A sustainable agriculture will have to use GMO, fertilizers and probably large-scale farming.

    24. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Fnkmaster · · Score: 1

      Sure, and the main agents used are relatively safe to humans despite being toxic to insects (much safer than many of the pesticides that have been used in conventional farming over the years), biodegrade quickly, and don't get into water runoff in significant quantities.

      Obviously, I'm not claiming there's some magical difference between a synthesized chemical and a chemical extracted from a plant. Rather, it's a difference between using chemicals that have been known to be safe to humans for years rather than chemicals chosen for their maximal toxicity to insects and cheapness of manufacture that have been deemed safe by FDA, one of the most absurdly ineffectual organizations I've ever seen.

      How many drugs have been on the market and later pulled by FDA? How many pesticides are now banned? I don't think it's unreasonable to feel more safe with the constrained, less toxic set of pesticide agents used by organic farmers.

    25. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Fnkmaster · · Score: 1

      What, you think there are no pollutants in farm-raised fish? In fact, there tend to be significantly higher PCB levels. I avoid high mercury-level species (swordfish, shark, etc.) with the exception of canned tuna, which I eat fairly frequently, on the order of twice a week.

      I mostly don't worry about mercury levels with tuna too much. For starters, I buy canned tuna from companies that catch them off the US coast and publish their average mercury levels. More expensive, but the stuff tastes insanely good. Also, it's not fully understood, but you can find a fair amount of reference out there to the fact that the high selenium content of tuna offsets the toxicity of the high methylmercury content. Not to say I'd sit there and eat tuna all day long every day - might not be a great idea.

      I also eat quite a bit of wild-caught salmon, which has rather low mercury levels anyway. Farm-raised salmon tends to have very high PCB levels - the levels are short of the FDA's ridiculously high limits, but are on average something like 8-10 times higher than in wild-caught salmon (see, for example, this blurb from Harvard).

      Obviously, this is a statistical game. In my judgment, the risks of not eating any fish outweigh the benefits.

    26. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      When I grew tomatoes in Los Angeles, I used pesticides fairly heavily, and still had worms in about 1/3 of the fruit. In that area, the failure to use pesticides is simply a non-starter. For contrast, I now grow tomatoes in New Hampshire, and have a lower yield of fruit, all worm-free without pesticides.

      Fruit from a local apple orchard must be washed before use. Eating a single apple, unwashed, shuts down my throat so that I can't burp or swallow for about 30 minutes.

      Net net: pesticides should be used intelligently, as required.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    27. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Um, actually we have an absolute shitload of potash in the ground. Even at our "ravenous" production levels, we have 500 years worth.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash

  20. In other news, by Braintrust · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!

    --
    Years later, a doctor will tell me that I have an I.Q. of 48, and am what some people call "mentally retarded".
  21. SSDD by gone.fishing · · Score: 1

    We've been on the verge of running out of oil, running out of fresh water, and killing our oceans how many times now? I have no doubt that some day humans will go the way of the dinosaurs but it will probably be a long time from now unless a killer virus morphs into something that spreads uncontrollably and kills off all of earth's connected humans. If that happens then the lost tribes in the Amazon and on some Asian islands will probably still be isolated enough and will be able to repopulate the earth.

    1. Re:SSDD by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      "We've been on the verge of running out of oil, running out of fresh water, and killing our oceans how many times now?"

      Well, oil had been forecast to peak some time in 2010-s. Which is about now and it looks like this prediction is on the money. American oil has peaked in 70-s and steadily declined ever since, as predicted.

      We've already more than halfway through with killing our oceans ( http://www.pbs.org/emptyoceans/ ).

  22. IPv6 by QBasicer · · Score: 1

    Is this need for a second earth as urgent as the need to switch to IPv6? Or are they just going to keep pushing it back to a distant future.

    --
    x86, oh yes, I'm pro.
    1. Re:IPv6 by furgle · · Score: 1

      No we'll just need 2 IPv4s by 2030.

    2. Re:IPv6 by Lennie · · Score: 1

      'In the next couple of years' is a pretty good prediction:

      http://www.ipv4depletion.com/?page_id=147

      Most companies and providers are not realising it:

      http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/092010-companies-starting-to-get-ipv6.html

      --
      New things are always on the horizon
    3. Re:IPv6 by Lennie · · Score: 1

      There is no denying, there are more IPv4 /8's allocated this year, then there are left in the pool for the RIR's.

      http://www.merit.edu/mail.archives/nanog/msg13209.html

      --
      New things are always on the horizon
  23. Why?! by nloop · · Score: 4, Funny

    Why, slashdot, do you insist on posting article after article wrote by Al Gore and the global conspirators of Climate Gate. Clearly if just drill in the Arctic it will solve ALL of our environmental woes.

    1. Re:Why?! by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 1

      drill baby drill... drilling is the only way to get oil prices to drop in the next few months!

    2. Re:Why?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      omg u r so dumb dont u now sara palin cant proteckt us from teh russians theyd' just steal all teh oils

    3. Re:Why?! by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      Clubbing some baby seals is a bonus.

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
  24. Economics will take care of it (I hope) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    People have been predicting this kind of gloom and doom since the 1850s. Thomas Malthus comes to mind but he was by no means the only one. The Club of Rome chanted the same thing. At some time in the mid 1900s we were supposed to run out of something critical and civilization would spiral downwards toward the stone age again.

    By the mid 1900s, we clearly hadn't crashed like we should have done (in theory).

    Buckminster Fuller proposed that we wouldn't have a problem because, if we were about to run out of one material, we would substitute another. He was able to present several examples.

    You can still hear both sides of this debate. I really trust neither side. It has become obvious to me that global warming hysteria was a fraud. I really did believe in it until about a year ago. The global warmers tried to cook the books and erase the Medieval Warm Period. All the bristlecones in the world will not convince me that hundreds of years of historical documents are wrong. That caused me to check the science more closely.

    The skeptic side of the argument is just as bad as the AGW alarmist camp, maybe worse. Some of the people posting on the blogs are real scum.

    My problem now is that I believe no one. So, are we going to run out of resources and will civilization collapse. I'm willing to bet it won't. I hope I'm right. In any event, I'm not willing to bork the economy on the chance that the alarmists are right.

    1. Re:Economics will take care of it (I hope) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nobody has tried to "erase" the MWP. Tree rings are not the sole source for historical temperature reconstructions. Nothing anyone of note is suggesting would result in "borking" the economy in any manner. As much as you may complain about the denialists, it seems you've readily bought into their bullshit.

  25. war solves this, usually. by lkcl · · Score: 1

    well then, we just better have a few more large wars, that'll kill off lots of the planetary population - problem solved, right? riiiight...

    1. Re:war solves this, usually. by Arty2 · · Score: 1

      mod parent up It's the way we humans take care of variou stuff. Look at Iraq abd Afganistan: unemployment, lack or raw materials, wide testing of new systems. That ought to work or wiping out the eastern countries. Either that, or some new, evolved embola virus.

  26. reuse, recycling & conservation ignored by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Where do reuse, recycling and conservation factor into this? The article, like the others before it carefully ignores these things.

    It seems like yet another deliberately vague scare piece by another hack. People are tired of all this chicken little crap. Many reading this story are going to be moved only by their BS detectors.

    By the way, the article is really at www.indiareport.com/India-usa-uk-news/latest-news/917700/FeaturedArticles/14/54/14 for those who don't want to deal with iframes.

  27. Don't count us out quite yet by WinstonWolfIT · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Fortunately, things are being dramatically better managed than even just 30 years ago. For instance, the birth rate of most densely populated countries has flattened to almost zero; agriculture is far more efficient than before; trees are being reforested in earnest. As things get gradually get worse, people will gradually put more emphasis on sustainability, and an equilibrium will eventually be reached somewhere between the Utopian and Doomsday extremes. Might not be quite as rosy as it is, comparatively, today, but it will be manageable.

    1. Re:Don't count us out quite yet by arcite · · Score: 0, Troll

      You don't have a clue what you're talking about.

    2. Re:Don't count us out quite yet by Mikeikon · · Score: 1

      Populations are less than replacement rate in most of the developed world. In a few generations we may have to start worrying more about extinction from lack of reproduction than about using up natural resources.

    3. Re:Don't count us out quite yet by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      No, we'll just be overtaken by the under-developed world. Then they'll have to figure out what to do about sustainability.

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
  28. My hobby: extrapolation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I drank 1 soda yesterday,
    I drank 2 sodas today...

    Tomorrow I should drink 4 sodas
    the day after that I should drink 8 sodas ... ... ...
    By month's end, I should be drinking over 1 billion sodas.

    1. Re:My hobby: extrapolation by JTsyo · · Score: 1

      umm I get 3 sodas for tomorrow and 30 by the end of the month.

  29. Who care's? by shougyin · · Score: 1

    Well, all i can say is that everything needs to be recycled, and i'm not big on doing that by any means, but that doesn't mean that companies can't start and work to just divide up all of our waste. I mean, it's not like we are running around eating plastic and metal! It's all still there, we have just decided to put it in landfills. And who care!? It's our nature to grow and expand and evolve! No matter what, the human race will survive. If i make it through or not is not up to me, so why worry about it. I say we continue to grow and strive for better things, no matter what the cost.

  30. Not a problem. by amiga3D · · Score: 0

    It ends in 2012...we just need to last about 2 more years.

    1. Re:Not a problem. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ok, lets waste it all right now !!!

      I guess the end of the world in 2012 is a self-fullfilling prophecy. ;)

  31. 2030 HAH! by DevConcepts · · Score: 1

    They forgot about 2012! Plenty of room after that!

    1. Re:2030 HAH! by apricots · · Score: 1

      yea. next it'll be 2046, then 2050, then 2074, and so on and so on..... it will NEVER end as long as we still have idiots in the world, they wont stop wanting to have the world end for one reason or another... whether it be they don't wanna go to jail, they don't wanna "die" (i don't think it would change much though lol) or they just wanna see it end. they wont stop naggin. and i sit here laughin

  32. Link to the actual report... by actionbastard · · Score: 2, Informative

    is here. Contains lots of nice, big, hard to interpret charts and stuff.

    --
    Sig this!
    1. Re:Link to the actual report... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wow, what the fuck are they measuring? Talk about your selection bias, this report looks like propaganda not science.

  33. Consider the source by davev2.0 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Somehow I doubt that the groups who created this report are impartial and it is well known that if one goes looking for a specific conclusion, one will find the conclusion whether the conclusion is correct or not.

    1. Re:Consider the source by lennier · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yes, the Zoological Society of London and the World Wildlife Fund are a bunch of hardcore animal-loving animal enablers giving aid and comfort to our animal enemies. It's like, whose side are they on anyway?

      --
      You are not a brain: http://books.google.com/books?id=2oV61CeDx-YC
    2. Re:Consider the source by bazorg · · Score: 1

      I would give some consideration to your opinion but I don't see the required evidence of 100% impartiality.

    3. Re:Consider the source by jank1887 · · Score: 1

      they're on the side of "oh crap the bad economy is making our donation-based income take a nose dive, let's show some drowning polar bears or something".

  34. Time to invade Mars! by Golbez81 · · Score: 0

    WE NEED BREATHING ROOM!

    1. Re:Time to invade Mars! by tverbeek · · Score: 1

      The word you're looking for is "Lebensraum".

      --
      http://alternatives.rzero.com/
  35. Extrapolating by gmuslera · · Score: 1

    If i keep climbing stairs, i will get like 20 meters in the air over the buiilding. It works in cartoons, why not in real life?

    Near the point you used all the resources, population, and/or use of resources will stop growing, just because we reached the ceiling. You can raise the ceiling being more efficient obtaining/using resources, but will always be a limit after which people will die or stop growing.

    When people get the idea that getting more children will mean death in short time from them, and religions understand that anticonception save lives instead of terminating them, then we could be at a good distance of such limits.

    Bah, joking... they won't change their way to be, and just will die hundreds of millons, by wars, famine or disease, and people will blame whatever they want to blame, except themselves.

  36. inb4 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    understanding how the market sets prices

  37. Malthus by CharlieG · · Score: 1

    AH, Malthus

    Sigh

    --
    -- 73 de KG2V For the Children - RKBA! "You are what you do when it counts" - the Masso
  38. Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The overpopulation myth. Bottom line - we could provide for every single person living on this planet with just the resources inside the US. Never mind the rest of the world. We're a LONG way from overpopulation... We have a distribution - not resource - problem to solve.

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    1. Re:Shameless self promotion by tsm_sf · · Score: 1

      We have a distribution - not resource - problem to solve.

      We don't have a distribution or a resource problem, we have a starvation problem. This is good news for those of us living in the first world, since distribution and resource problems are most efficiently solved with crateloads of assault rifles.

      --
      Literalism isn't a form of humor, it's you being irritating.
    2. Re:Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 3, Interesting

      We don't have a distribution or a resource problem, we have a starvation problem.

      Distribution results in starvation. There is plenty of food in the world, it just is not distributed properly.

      When I've gone on humanitarian aid trips to Haiti, Sudan, Mozambique, Bangladesh, and a half-dozen other shitholes around the world, the issue hasn't been one of getting supplies and food IN to the country, and getting it there in sufficient quantities. The issue has been making sure it goes to those who need it, rather than those who desire it.

      For most of the starving world, food is a weapon used by the local thug/"political leader" to wield against the people and enforce their will. Most of the time, the ONLY reason food and medicine was properly dispensed and rationed and CONSUMED was because of those firearms carried by the soldiers around us.

      You want to know how to solve the starvation problem? Use an assault rifle in the hands of a trained soldier and kill the scum who choose to enforce starvation for their own sociopathic, twisted pleasure or gain. A bullet to the head of a few dozen scum would quickly change the way most of those thugs operate and at least food supplies would get through.

      Yes, that's not politically correct, and I guess many would call it uncivilized. But most of those thugs and cretins care not for Western reasoning or compassion. They get the food, drink, money and women as they want, without repercussion.

      Why should the want to give up power and control - to make the West feel happy? Heck no! They WANT pictures of starving orphans, of emaciated women on the TV because they know - they KNOW - that we in West will spend billions of dollars to send food and drugs and equipment to "solve the problem". And they can sit back and take it for their own pleasure and use and power.

      You either write the people off - ignore the suffering - or you simply execute the bastards in charge. There is no other solution.

      It's not starvation - there is plenty of food. It's distribution. From thugs stealing food shipments to countries erecting insane barriers to the import/export of food. Distribution - not production - is the problem.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    3. Re:Shameless self promotion by Bayoudegradeable · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Solving that distribution problem wouldn't take more resources now, would it? Moving all "that food we can produce" would happen with magic fairy dust, right, not fossil fuels. Distributing all that food would happen with magic neo-awesome materials, not vessels made of iron. And certainly, we'd grow all the food the world needs with mythical unicorn tears, and not the already stretched supply of clean, fresh water. Sure, it's a distribution problem that will NOT BE FIXED without massive amounts of... gasp!... resources. You don't have to believe we are running low on many key components to modern life. In 30 years from now you will live it. And if China and India come anywhere close to a fully developed economy that allows the majority of its residents to live "modern" lives you'll be lucky to get 15 years of your comfortable life before the serious difficulties begin. What's easier to accept, "This is a load of crap! Pass me the bucket o' wings, I gotta watch this in high-def" or... "Damn it, I'm a part of the problem, too!?"

      --
      Sig Registration Form 34c_766(a) submitted to Ministry of Signature Management. Approval pending.
    4. Re:Shameless self promotion by k8to · · Score: 1

      Sure, these things are possible, if only we *completely* change the way we do things. We'd have to do much more labor-intensive farming, we'd have to reverse our trend *away* from density to this amazing density proposed in the link.

      The problem is we are not doing these things.

      --
      -josh
    5. Re:Shameless self promotion by RazorSharp · · Score: 2, Funny

      The overpopulation myth. Bottom line - we could provide for every single person living on this planet with just the resources inside the US. Never mind the rest of the world. We're a LONG way from overpopulation... We have a distribution - not resource - problem to solve.

      If people were boxes that needed to be stored in a warehouse, then the math would be solid. But that's simply not the case. Furthermore, even if such a state is possible and sustainable, that in no way means that it's desirable. I don't want to live in Texas with the population density throughout the entire state as dense as NYC. That sounds horrific.

      Another thing that is completely neglected is future population growth. The reason people like you think that overpopulation is a myth is because you're only thinking within the timeframe of your own life. It's that old, "won't be a problem until after I'm dead" shrug off of a problem. Some people actually care about future generations, even if they won't be around to enjoy their company.

      And finally, the environmental impact isn't taken into account at all. Waste management, air pollution, water pollution, and the preservation of natural ecosystems are all neglected.

      Quality of life is important. It's not like growing corn where the more you can grow in a single field the better. Ears of corn don't have feelings and desires and integrity and morality. My favorite quote from that paper is in the very beginning:

      I am an engineer, so I actually understand numbers, rather than merely pushing them around.

      His definition of 'understand' and mine must be different.

      --
      "From the depths of my skeptical and rationalist soul, I ask the Lord to protect me from California touchie-feeliedom."
    6. Re:Shameless self promotion by EdIII · · Score: 1

      Actually it is partly a distribution problem. Specifically, the fact we are even distributing most resources at all. Other than a few types of finished products, spices, and food stuffs, we should not be spending any resources to transport physical materials or energy.

      Most of our problem relates to energy and how it distributed. There are only 4 primary sources of energy:

      1) Magic, because we don't understand it enough to say it isn't. Stuff like Zero Point Energy, Anti-Matter, Omega Particles, Unicorn Farts, etc.
      2) Radioactive materials. Fission and Fusion,, but also the significant amount of heat generated in the core due to radiation.
      3) Geothermal. Specifically the energy not produced by absorbtion of the heat energy from the sun, but from the effects of moving around the Sun (ultimately gravity).
      4) Sun. Everything else uses the Sun at some point. Weather, Hydroelectric, and even Fossil Fuels indirectly got the energy from the Sun.

      We have *shitloads* of 3 and 4. It gives us everything we need to cultivate food and provide energy for our technology.

      Our number one problem is efficiency. By utilizing point source methods of energy production instead of centralized distribution of power we can massively improve efficiency. Not just efficiency either, but redundancy and reliability. Every community could be part of a communal power grid and participate in an energy market. Since every community produces power via wind, geothermal, or solar power (continually increasing in efficiency itself) a much greater level of redundancy is obtained. Communities could mitigate malfunctions and the resultant downtime by purchasing power directly from the grid until their own power generation is fixed.

      This is not fantasy either. We have the technology to do this immediately. Considering the $1 trillion spent on stupid shit in the last decade, like wars in the middle east and propping up the military industrial complex with bailouts, it's not hard to imagine we could find the money to retrofit communities and cities.

      It does not happen because of how much control, power, information gathering, money, etc. is obtained by keeping power generation in the hands of monopolies. It results in communities much less able to deal with natural disasters and area wide power outages.

      The same goes for water and food. We can reclaim our water with pretty amazing levels of efficiency if we wanted to. There would not be a shortage of water if we used it more intelligently. We could be using desalination plants to get water on the coast. If we deployed a heck of lot more solar power facilities we could use that sea salt as energy buffers in the form of molten sodium. Point source generation of vegetables, eggs, meat, dairy, is all possible when you design the communities to support it.

      We don't have a resource problem. We don't even have an intelligence problem. The inordinate number of engineers, scientists, and basically visionaries that we have around us have *already* shown us things that would be magic 500 years ago. How to build these communities and implement the technologies is already known. We don't need to be the Amish either doing it. Communities could be built with a high level of technology and be sustainable. Think hybrid bio-domes, underground facilities, and communities designed to be in harmony with the local environment. Don't need to smell like a Hippie either, we can install showers. We have the technology.

      Our problem is culture and being controlled by a very few groups of people that do nothing but live off us in exchange for providing us with our chains. We have enough resources to make the changes required in a pretty short amount of time. We lack the will power to pull it off.

      Just like you said. It's easier to give up and pick up the bucket of wings and watch something in High-Def than it is to actually grow a vegetable garden. Alter your diet. Get at least part of your energy from local and renewable resources. Recycle your materials. Search for local alternatives to the crap that Wall Mart brings into your community.

      Nah, all that shit is hard man. Do you have any ranch dip for these wings?

    7. Re:Shameless self promotion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think we all agree then -- you are part of the problem, too.

    8. Re:Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Actually, I think more automated farming is what's required. It increases harvest ratios and productivity of the soil. There's a reason the US grows so much more per acre than most other nations...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    9. Re:Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      If people were boxes that needed to be stored in a warehouse, then the math would be solid. But that's simply not the case. Furthermore, even if such a state is possible and sustainable, that in no way means that it's desirable. I don't want to live in Texas with the population density throughout the entire state as dense as NYC. That sounds horrific.

      It's about 5500 people per square mile. Really not all that dense. It's not the wide open spaces, but it's not downtown-Manhattan or Tokyo or Shanghai dense.

      And note: this is a WORST CASE, of putting everybody and ALL resources inside the USA. The rest of the WORLD - including the oceans - are completely empty. Want to spread out? Hey, we have Canada to use - that would cut the density down to almost nothing...

      Another thing that is completely neglected is future population growth. The reason people like you think that overpopulation is a myth is because you're only thinking within the timeframe of your own life. It's that old, "won't be a problem until after I'm dead" shrug off of a problem. Some people actually care about future generations, even if they won't be around to enjoy their company.

      I live in Shanghai most of the time (here right now, actually). It's population is already slowing, as are the populations of India and most of Southeast Asia (3 of the 4 most populous nations are here: China, India, and Indonesia). As populations gain wealth and comfort - move upscale - they start to cut back on their own numbers inherently. You no longer need 17 children to work the farm, or 4 kids to care for you when you're sick.

      And finally, the environmental impact isn't taken into account at all. Waste management, air pollution, water pollution, and the preservation of natural ecosystems are all neglected.

      Sewage shouldn't be a problem, and with proper management neither is air nor water pollution. As for the ecosystems, we keep every square meter of parks and national forests in the US, and the REST OF THE WORLD is untouched by man, left completely natural. I don't think you can get more "low footprint" than that! Less than 2% of the world used for everything.

      Quality of life is important.

      Sure, you still have all those parks and forests in the US to enjoy - anything that's public or private recreation now, you still have. And of course, the REST OF THE WORLD can be a nature preserve for enjoyment.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    10. Re:Shameless self promotion by Black+Gold+Alchemist · · Score: 1

      Solving that distribution problem wouldn't take more resources now, would it? Moving all "that food we can produce" would happen with magic fairy dust, right, not fossil fuels. Distributing all that food would happen with magic neo-awesome materials, not vessels made of iron.

      Actually it would. The earth contains a hell of a lot of solar energy. 175 petawatts worth. Just 1 day of solar = all the oil in the world. The earth also contains, in the oceans, enough uranium for 1000 years of current energy use, in the most inefficient case. We could solve all our problems right now if we went nuclear. However, the environmentalists prevented this. All those ships and trucks and V8 cars could be powered by synthetic gas and diesel made from CO2 in those powerplants. So, as a result of the suppression of these advanced technologies, we're going to have to go solar. This will be more expensive, but that's life.

      You don't have to believe we are running low on many key components to modern life. In 30 years from now you will live it.

      I predict that 30 years from now, we will be living comfortably. I also predict that many people will think the world is on the verge of collapse. Just like it was in 1980, when we'd starve in 2000. But, it did not happen, because the principles of finite resources, while seemingly logical, are wrong. Just like it is logical that heavy things fall faster, but this is in fact false. Humans, and so-called "mythical unicorn tears" will always find a way around it. The best example is the whales. It was not the advocacy of Greenpeace that saved the whales, but the capitalism of Standard Oil. Just in time for the whale species and depletion of whale stocks, the "mythical unicorn tears" of ground oil. Now, the same must happen again. It will not be the advocates, but the capitalists who save the glaciers. Julian Simon is a great author about these issues.

      And if China and India come anywhere close to a fully developed economy that allows the majority of its residents to live "modern" lives you'll be lucky to get 15 years of your comfortable life before the serious difficulties begin.

      They're going nuclear, and we should be too. The fact that they are using more resources is good, because affluence == less population growth. More nukes, less protests.

      What's easier to accept, "This is a load of crap! Pass me the bucket o' wings, I gotta watch this in high-def" or... "Damn it, I'm a part of the problem, too!?"

      Depends on what kind of a person you are. If you are a rational person, then you just want to sit down and eat food and watch TV/do what ever. Meanwhile, if you have a system of moral values about consuming less, then you go out an criticize, and attempt to tax people for their personal choices.

      --
      Responsibility is an addiction
      Virtue is a temptation
      Community is a cartel
    11. Re:Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      You know something about farming and rice in Haiti? Really? Ever been there? There was NO FREAKING RICE TO BEGIN WITH. Subsistence level, because 90% is confiscated by the local mayors and governors for their own use. What little is "for sale" was predominantly imported through Port-au-Prince or Dessalines, and the former was wiped out by the earthquake.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    12. Re:Shameless self promotion by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      For most of the starving world, food is a weapon used by the local thug/"political leader" to wield against the people and enforce their will.

      Perhaps we should be giving the people AR-15s instead of rice? Hard to keep food from your people when they have the ability to fight back effectively.

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    13. Re:Shameless self promotion by Black+Gold+Alchemist · · Score: 1

      Actually it is partly a distribution problem. Specifically, the fact we are even distributing most resources at all.

      Local makes no sense at all. It's cheaper and better for things to be built in big industrial factories where massive quantities of products flow down simple assembly lines. Transportation is insanely cheap, especially freight transportation. Instead of having communities (which is a disaster), we can have capitalists trade products, and if we don't like it, we don't buy it!

      Efficiency is not the goal. It is a decoy thrown at us by a group of idealists, and backed by the fossil fuel industries. Yes the fossil fuel industries. They realize that demand will outstrip production. That will force nuclear and solar building. If they promote efficiency, they can hang around for longer. This is what saved the whales. Not efficiency, but prices rises, and a man named JD Rockefeller.

      Here's a simple solution. Nuclear power. Synthetic gasoline. A new V8 SUV. Small towns and suburbia. That's easy, if we put aside our ideologies of efficiency and our irrational phobias.

      Communities won't save us. They can't even agree on what color to force people to paint their roofs. Now you want them to agree to build a farm?

      The dollar forces people to agree. It forces people to do things intelligently. When you don't consider the full picture, a lot looks stupid. But the amount of labor to ship something around the world rather than make it local is less, so it makes sense to ship it around the world.

      Two communities might be able to save us. The business community and the scientific community. But more likely, I think it will be a few individuals looking to make a buck.

      --
      Responsibility is an addiction
      Virtue is a temptation
      Community is a cartel
    14. Re:Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      In most of the egregious cases - starving children in Africa, destitute folks in Haiti - the distribution is already attempted. It fails at the delivery end when it's handed out, and usually taken by the local thug/dictator. We've already "spent" the resources to get it there, we're just not enforcing the distribution that is supposed to take place.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    15. Re:Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Precisely. But that's not peaceful, and it's interfering, so we won't do it - instead, we'll just shovel food and equipment and money to the nation and let it keep flowing to the thugs in control, and wring our hands more. At least until Lindsay Lohan gets arrested again...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    16. Re:Shameless self promotion by khallow · · Score: 1

      1) Magic, because we don't understand it enough to say it isn't. Stuff like Zero Point Energy, Anti-Matter, Omega Particles, Unicorn Farts, etc. 2) Radioactive materials. Fission and Fusion,, but also the significant amount of heat generated in the core due to radiation. 3) Geothermal. Specifically the energy not produced by absorbtion of the heat energy from the sun, but from the effects of moving around the Sun (ultimately gravity). 4) Sun. Everything else uses the Sun at some point. Weather, Hydroelectric, and even Fossil Fuels indirectly got the energy from the Sun.

      No offense, but why waste your time claiming there is a #1? (Incidentally, it is possible to create or harvest anti-matter under certain circumstances, but the anti-matter is always the product of some other power source, typically supernova byproducts (fission, fusion) or solar power.) And 3) really is a combination of the residual heat content of Earth, radioactive decay products, and tidal forces of the Sun and Moon. These are distinct sources of power.

      Our number one problem is efficiency. By utilizing point source methods of energy production instead of centralized distribution of power we can massively improve efficiency.

      Not true for most sources of power. And if the power being generated isn't where it gets consumed, then a low density, point source of power has serious overhead and economies of scale disadvantages compared to centralized sources.

    17. Re:Shameless self promotion by Talla · · Score: 1

      Who's going to pay for the production and distribution of all this easily available food? I doubt those who pay for it now will, considering you're going to give it to somebody else. Also, the people in charge in these countries are a product of their society. They're corrupt because the whole society is corrupt. Take away one and another just as corrupt person will replace him.

    18. Re:Shameless self promotion by Insightfill · · Score: 1

      Solving that distribution problem wouldn't take more resources now, would it? Moving all "that food we can produce" would happen with magic fairy dust, right, not fossil fuels. Distributing all that food would happen with magic neo-awesome materials, not vessels made of iron.

      To be fair, most of our distribution problems have been political, not logistical. Almost anywhere people are starving or in need, there's an oppressive government or an active war in progress. For example, it's been determined that much of the donations from Live Aid was lost to the government and battling factions.

    19. Re:Shameless self promotion by osgeek · · Score: 1

      You either write the people off - ignore the suffering - or you simply execute the bastards in charge. There is no other solution.

      I think there's a lot of truth in what you're saying -- although you ignore the eventual capacity of those societies to reform themselves if we'd stop enabling the thugs by letting them have food to rule over their people with. Maybe by withholding the misspent aid for a generation or two, better forms of government would form out of the survivors.

    20. Re:Shameless self promotion by toddestan · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure we don't have the fresh water supplies to accomplish that. Well, we might for a few years while we completely drain the Great Lakes.

    21. Re:Shameless self promotion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The overpopulation myth. Bottom line - we could provide for every single person living on this planet with just the resources inside the US. Never mind the rest of the world.

      OMG, what a stupid, naive calculation! If this guy wants to present any actual solutions, he would do well to study the problems first instead of giving us "suppose the cow is a sphere."

    22. Re:Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Check the links - 50 liters per person, per day. That's half the outflow of the Columbia River. Nothing to do with the Great Lakes...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    23. Re:Shameless self promotion by toddestan · · Score: 1

      The link only covers enough water for sanitation, cooking, and drinking. What about the water needed for irrigating crops and industrial uses, which totally dwarfs the domestic water use?

    24. Re:Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      All the sources currently used for that purpose are still available. The excess load required by bringing everyone to the US is covered by that half usage of the Columbia River; that's the only increase you need.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    25. Re:Shameless self promotion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I suggest you watch Chris Martenson's Crash Course and you'll see that the problem is actually one of exponential growth vs. finite resources.

      In terms of population, we have already "turned the corner" on the graph, and that is a very serious matter.

    26. Re:Shameless self promotion by toddestan · · Score: 1

      You mean fresh water supplies like the Ogallala Aquifer that are currently being depleted a rate faster than they can replenish? Just to feed everyone assumes a high level of mechanized farming in areas that would not support it without massive amounts of water being imported from somewhere. I don't see how the US could support the world population (for more than a few years) without rapidly depleting its natural resources, even assuming a drastic cut in the standards of living.

    27. Re:Shameless self promotion by MightyDrunken · · Score: 1

      ??

      The water estimate is way off if you actually want to grow and produce things. Considering that agriculture is ~70% of our water consumption and industry is ~20% you can see we are not factoring in alot of water in this calculation.

      The linked document estimates 350 million cubic meters of fresh water is required. Considering that the USA alone consumes 470 million cubic meters of fresh water you can see that it gives a very false impression of the resource use of the human race.

      So in essence the document is interesting but does not show that we have plenty more resources because it does not factor in much of our actual consumption.

  39. Two Earths by hackus · · Score: 1, Interesting

    How many of these so called experts have been proclaiming doomsday now for the past century.

    We won't need two Earths, we have plenty of resources here.

    The real problem is the social mechanisms we use to get resources, which is mainly through warfare.
    (i.e. Invading countries for their lithium supply for example when there is a well known shortage.)

    I mean, Africa is rich in mineral resources, most of it undeveloped. Yet the populations are in disarray.

    They are meant to be, kept that way by George Soros and friends at the IMF for good reason.

    A developed industrialized stable Africa would mean competition, and they don't want any.

    So expect Africa and its people to continue to have all sorts of silly woes, like famines....political instability
    until the IMF and George decide otherwise.

    The author I think is living in a glass academic bubble and should probably investigate trends and get his feet
    wet and pound the pavement a little before stating something so stupid.

    I mean, we haven't even touched the ocean floors yet which have vast reserves of volcanic mineral wealth.

    Technology is being developed to mine the ocean floor in the next 5-10 years in a big way for example.

    Same thing with oil. We were suppose to have peaked in 1970's, now we are discovering oil, huge oceans of the stuff
    in the earths crust at 32,000 feet or more....obviously produced by geological processes that dwarf anything
    in the middle east.

    But it is all the same thing, these oil companies NEED you to believe that oil is scarce otherwise they won't be able to charge 100 dollars a barrel for it.

    Same thing with the population explosion B.S. Once you provide people who health care, food and water and a place to stay, the motivational operandi goes from worrying about food for tomorrow, having tons of kids to work the farm or look for food...too education and self improvement. In fact, populations start to contract, not grow.

    Japan is going through that right now, so is the USA. Well we would be, but our crooked politicians selective enforce the laws on immigration for WalMart and co.

    So the USA would be contracting as well in population, so is Europe.

    But the whole thing we need two Earths, is a bunch of crap.

    We do need two Earths, mainly I would say for:

    1) We need two Earths to flee the tyranny and new dark age that the IMF and George and his friends have planned for humanity.

    In the past you could defeat tyranny by discovering a new land, building a free nation, and destroying it.

    Now, there is no place to flee which means my prediction is the 21st century is going to see incredible civil wars that are very violent because there is no place to go, and people will be forced to fight the police states the IMF have been setting up around the globe.

    2) Disaster, I mean acts of God with a big G kinda thing. Asteroid impact, volcanic disaster, solar disaster. If we are only in one solar system, we could get wiped out pretty easily. (All of our eggs in one basket.)

    3) Finally idiots. From scientists who think they know everything that want to start tinkering with our atmosphere to the idiots at Monsanto who are passing laws in Congress that make it illegal to grow your own food. The side affects of genetic science gone mad with Vaccines which go wrong (creating super bugs) and other madness we see with the use of Antibiotics on just about everything and anything. (Stop washing your hands with that anti bacterial soap!!!)

    I think my reasons for two Earths have much more basis in historic _fact_ than this guy who claims like lots of others, we are running out of everything.

    B.S.

    -Hack

    --
    Got Geometrodynamics? Awe, too hard to figure out? Too bad.
    1. Re:Two Earths by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      Africa has way worse issues than the IMF. One is a lack of confidence in technology and a deep belief in plain nonsense. Another is the large number of crippling endemic diseases like malaria and yellow fever. The short lifespans resulting from these diseases, famine, and wars, mean it is harder to retain a highly trained workforce.

      What Africa needs is the same thing that was done in Europe and Asia. Large scale landscaping. The swamps near population centers must be dried and the mosquitoes which transmit most of these diseases eradicated. Drinking water must be filtered and decontaminated to prevent cholera. Rivers need to be dammed to prevent flooding. Of course you are not going to hear this from the WWF.

    2. Re:Two Earths by SplashMyBandit · · Score: 1

      And the reason this doesn't happen is even simpler - it's pretty much corruption that prevents progress in Africa. Africa is rich in resources, gets lots of aid money, and has plenty of smart folks (even if the bulk are poorly educated). Just can't get anything done though - even rich Nigeria loses out with lots of parties (government politicians, tribes, revolutionaries) all get their cut of the oil (pipeline stealing) or revenue. Until this is sorted Africa will never improve (can't fight disease and famine if the donated aid is stolen or looted, etc).

    3. Re:Two Earths by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think GP's point is that Soros/IMF allow/cause the factors you list to perpetuate.

    4. Re:Two Earths by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      Africa's plague is tribalism. There are just too many groups willing to kill their neighbors for theft or historical hatred.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
  40. Solution: kill more people by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    A nice world war will solve that pesky overpopulation problem!

  41. People have been saying this for over 200 years by izomiac · · Score: 1

    First off, why are we linking to a frame/url shortener rather than directly to the article?

    But blind extrapolation tells us nothing. If you're an economist then you think exponential growth can happen indefinitely. If you're a biologist you know that populations follow a sigmoidal curve if they approach their carrying capacity. For humans, our population curve will likely fall somewhere in between.

    The most developed nations are already at zero population growth, and the developing world isn't going to magically become developed if the resources simply aren't there. For those countries, maintaining an agrarian birth rate despite modern medicine and an economy transitioning away from food production is a good way to ensure lasting poverty. That's a big problem for them, but not for English speaking Internet users. Or, more precisely, it's not "our" problem unless we want to involve ourselves in their affairs (for better or for worse).

  42. Demographics will tell the tale by arcite · · Score: 0, Flamebait
    No offense, but countries like Switzerland and much of Europe presently have negative population growth. They will continue to lose their competitiveness to the US, South America, China, ect...

    Israel is a horrible example of sustainability! First of all, they are subsidized by the United States (but lets not get political).... Have you noticed that the Dead Sea is quickly disappearing? Israel uses proportionally magnitudes more water than those of their neighbors. They are sucking the Dead Sea dry to grow cash crops to give the illusion of prosperity (oh, not that all the other countries in the region don't do this as well).

    The FACTS are MEGA-Cities of greater than 20M people will become the norm. Natural fresh water will become an ever more scarce and expensive commodity. Levels of pollution will become greater as reliance of these megacities on fossil fuels for electricity and desalinization plants becomes greater. Nuclear power is proliferating, but even that will not compensate for increases in conventional pollution of cars and electrical generation.

    And not much changes in our daily lives?.... Can one really say this as the American Middle class is steadily eroding? Your life will not change THAT much, but your childrens' life will be much different.

    Anyway, I live in Cairo, Egypt at the moment. It's a city of 20M people and growing bigger every day. This is the future for most of the world, where most of the growth is happening.

    I'm an optimist, but from my globetrotting I can say with certainty that there will be resource wars, they have already begun. (Just for a laugh, I suppose you would claim that Iraq was not a resource war?) har har...

    1. Re:Demographics will tell the tale by khallow · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Anyway, I live in Cairo, Egypt at the moment. It's a city of 20M people and growing bigger every day. This is the future for most of the world, where most of the growth is happening.

      And if these cultures don't straighten out their act, they'll also be the places where most of the population die-off occurs. Further, population growth doesn't equal economic growth. Most of the places with negative population growth still have positive economic growth.

    2. Re:Demographics will tell the tale by x2A · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "Nuclear power is proliferating, but even that will not compensate for increases in conventional pollution of cars and electrical generation"

      And the fact that it's not renewable. Sure there's plenty uranium left, but the concentrations at which you will find it in rock is dropping considerably, because we go for the easiest to get stuff first.

      "They will continue to lose their competitiveness to the US, South America, China"

      Perhaps. The other option is that because we look after our people better, we don't need so many of them to remain competative. I mean you have to look at why our population's dropping: educated females are prefering to have careers rather than just spit out children. This means we can achieve a higher % of our population that's available for work.

      "Just for a laugh, I suppose you would claim that Iraq was not a resource war?"

      In 1914 when we (Britain) first went in, it was certainly about resources. The most recent time, saying it was about resources is a little harder to justify. We already had their resources, we made sure it was the only thing Sadam could trade with the rest of the world. We weren't profiting from those resources as much as if they were owned by private American companies, sure, but that's about money. There is also of course the major threat of Sadam switching his O4F account from US dollars to Euros, citing "I will not use the currency of my enemy". This was the biggest threat of all, as if other OPEC nations followed suit and switched to other currencies, the USD would be in big trouble. Currently, America has a monopoly on producing the currency required to buy oil, and this helps them run up massive debts. An example needed to be set, because if people around the world all started flushing their dollars in order to buy whatever other currency they needed for oil... the federal government couldn't last a week. So again, this is more about money than oil, although it's easier to see the involvement of oil and just yell "it's about oil", I don't think it really serves the truth well.

      All that and of course, Israel really wanted the war, and we all know how massive their lobby powers are in the states (but I'll say no more on that subject cuz we all know how sensitive Americans are on the subject)

      --
      The revolution will not be televised... but it will have a page on Wikipedia
    3. Re:Demographics will tell the tale by deadmantalking · · Score: 1

      Read this: http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/97jan/borlaug/borlaug.htm
      Thanks to people like Norman Borlaugh, developing countries like India have actually slowed down the rate of green cover destruction. In the last 60 years, India went from a "basket case" to a net exporter of food, with an increase of just 1% of its farming area.
      Short answer, stop worrying! Really!

      --
      A crank is a little thing that makes revolutions
    4. Re:Demographics will tell the tale by khallow · · Score: 1

      Thanks to people like Norman Borlaugh, developing countries like India have actually slowed down the rate of green cover destruction. In the last 60 years, India went from a "basket case" to a net exporter of food, with an increase of just 1% of its farming area.
      Short answer, stop worrying! Really!

      I'm not worrying. Just pointing out the obvious, that continued significant population growth, which only seems to happen in the poorly developed parts of the world, will eventually lead to problems like die-offs. For example, it's already happening in Africa with the AIDS epidemic (which is by itself significantly curtailing fertility and birth rates in parts of Africa). Population growth didn't directly lead to the problem, but poor infrastructure, which IMHO correlates with population growth, kept the epidemic from being controlled.

  43. Soylent Green all over by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Harry Harrison wrote a book based on a similar 1950's report. The book is called "Make Room, Make Room". The book was used as the basis for the movie Soylent Green.

  44. hmmm by thatskinnyguy · · Score: 1

    Hasn't this been the story for hundreds of years now? Based on current technology, known resources and consumption of resources to support said technology yes. Give my regards to Thomas Malthus.

    --
    The game.
  45. Now reading the report itself by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The link is http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/wwf_lpr2010_lr_1_.pdf hopefully, after I read I would comment, because the numbers from the article seems, as many already noted, are taken out of thin air. But to comment - it is better to read details

  46. Nature as God by knowthetruth · · Score: 0

    Please watch the video "Nature as God" here: http://www.radiofreechurch.com/conference_display/16

  47. FUD by Squeeself · · Score: 1

    Ok, I'm big on conservation, saving the planet, etc., but this report is total FUD. One of the charts on this report illustrates the point perfectly: "In 2007, people used the equivalent of 1.5 planets in 2007 to support their activities." So, either we just decimated the earth 3 years ago and are living on some fairy planet now, or we've got some Library of Congress measurements going on here. What next? Earths Per Minute? Earth calories per square mile? Presenting this kind of data is WORTHLESS except as an alarmist view on the matter to grab headlines. Now, there ARE good pieces of well-established information in the report I saw (such as loss of biodiversity, habitat, excess carbon, etc.) but the way this report presents the (glossed over) data is entirely misleading, pointlessly biased, unscientific, and just shameful. Data should speak for itself, and not need headline grabbing lines such as "We're going to need another planet guys! ZOMG, WE'RE ALL DOOMED!"

    1. Re:FUD by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Whey they use the term 1.5 planets of course they mean on a sustainable basis. If you're living on a trust fund and you start taking out principal instead of just interest sooner or later you're going to run out.
      AC2PM

  48. Then what? by mangu · · Score: 1

    Affluence = population control.

    Great. Now let's get to the next step: getting affluence without consuming resources.

    1. Re:Then what? by Penguinisto · · Score: 3, Interesting

      That's actually easy to do nowadays - a new car no longer means a 2mpg V-8 weighing in at 2 tons of steel. If you look at Japan, you see a population that makes do with a whole hell of a lot less than the typical wealthy family in, say, Eastern Europe. The trick is to bring up the affluence by generating a demand for efficient goods.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
  49. uh by buddyglass · · Score: 1

    Define "need". Then define exactly which (and how many) humans. Then we can talk.

  50. Reminds me of... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    ...an online survey I took on a "planet-friendly" website. They had a form with questions like "How often do you shower / how much garbage do you throw away / how many miles do you drive." When I entered everything in honestly, I was given a number that was supposed to describe how much of the earth's resources I was using (wasting), and that I need to cut back.

    So I tried filling it out from scratch again, only I responded with 0 to every question...basically I could not have filled it out the way I did unless I existed in a cave, or not at all. In the end, I still got a positive number and a report that told me I need to cut back on how much of the earth's resources I used.

    Complete bunk.

  51. I don't think so. by taxman_10m · · Score: 1

    I recall asking a similar question of my biology teacher way back in high school. Something like, Didn't WW1 and WW2 put a pretty big dent in world population? The answer was, not really.

    1. Re:I don't think so. by Galvatron · · Score: 1

      WW1, not really (the Spanish Flu famously killed more people in one year than the war did in 5), but WW2, with its civilian bombing campaigns, death camps, genocides, and atomic weapons, had a somewhat greater impact. Wikipedia claims "50 to 70 million," probably close to 65 million, dead from the war, and population then would have been something less than 2.5 billion. So something on the order of 2.5% of the world population. Maybe not a "pretty big dent," but not unremarkable either. That's more than every 40th person dead. It erases about a year and a half of population growth (at prevailing rates in the era).

      Of course, one can reasonably guess that any major war today would have a substantially greater effect (though radiation would probably neutralize any "benefit" the survivors would get from less competition for natural resources).

      --
      "The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than that of whether a submarine can swim" -EWD
  52. /. lags by ObliviousMnd · · Score: 1

    i never realized how far behind the times /. was on these "science" articles. it is a week btw

  53. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Uh oh, another "non-profit" group must need money to supplement their jet's and expensive dinners.

    That is a stupid argument. Imagine you see someone disemabarking from a private jet, wearing a suit that costs more than the salaries of you and I combined, just so that they can attend an expensive dinner in another city. Which is more likely?

    1. They are a climate scientist (or member of a tree-hugging, non-profit group).
    2. They are a mining executive.

    Which side of this argument has the most financial interest in arguing either for or against limiting our use of Earth's resources? Let's face it, you don't get super rich by becoming a climate scientist.

    It reminds me of when the three CEOs of the car industry all took private planes to lobby Washington for a taxpayer handout. But no, I am sure that you are right that it is the tree-huggers who are the ones trying to greedily screw us all for money.

  54. "Club of Rome" type-hysteria by MSTCrow5429 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Assuming they are correct (they know how many resources are available on the entire planet [I think some natural resource extraction companies would like to talk to you]? They can forecast future technology?) People will invent new technology as needed, tastes will change, and price rationing will take care of the rest. This is like complaining that there aren't enough Aston-Martin DB5s in the world, or that we need to find another Earth to allow everyone to have prime beachfront real-estate.

    --
    Slashdot: Playing Favorites Since 1997
  55. Have we learned nothing from the Rats by RichMan · · Score: 1

    We are not going to use all the resources, when the going gets tough we are going to turn on each other.

  56. Do you hippies understand anything at all? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You can not use up earth. Matter is not destroyed, we create, we use, we throw away, and later on can just use the old crap to create new crap. You can't use up anything, and you can't kill the planet, the planet is not alive. We will not need more than 1 earth, unless we want to start building planet sized objects. So please stfu already with your pathetic fud.

    1. Re:Do you hippies understand anything at all? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Exactly.

      I especially love how they cry about water being used up. Where do they think it's going? Mars? Christ, a nuclear power plant, desalination plant and some pipeline can (and does, right now, in a lot of places) solve that problem.

  57. Blah, Blah, Blah by hydromike2 · · Score: 1

    Necessity is the mother of invention. Our race will at some point in the future develop a source of energy that makes what we can produce today trivial so that we can manufacture whatever type of substance we need. Until that happens they may be wars for resources, countries may be wiped out merely for their natural resources. Even past that point, our ability to produce relatively huge amounts of energy from some future technology will cease and the cycle may repeat itself.

    I foresee that in the very distant future our descendants will have the technology to build stars for energy, an extremely refined fusion technology or some tech that is centuries/millenniums beyond our current capabilities. The rate of growth of our technology is at least directly proportional to the rate of growth of our population, the more people that are alive the more opportunities that exist for discovery and advancement.

    Humans will survive to some extent short of some intentional trying cause extinction or a planet leveling event. Our numbers may greatly decrease but as long as we can produce energy we can create the conditions however limited to carry on.

  58. look up by confused+one · · Score: 2, Insightful

    OK, I've read all the posts and apparently I'm the only one (today) who reads this article, goes outside and looks up at the starry sky... Ignoring the article's source and Doomsday message, there may come a day ( in the distant future ) when resources become (excessively) difficult to obtain. Then it will be a good day to notice that this is but one smallish planet in a much larger solar system.

    1. Re:look up by strangelovian · · Score: 1

      Actually when you look up at the stars and notice that there is zero evidence for advanced civilizations (Dyson spheres and all that good stuff), then a reasonable conclusion is that all the technologically advanced civilizations killed themselves off or collapsed before they could get to that point. So looking up at the stars might be the biggest doomsday message of all, and you might just want to stay indoors...

    2. Re:look up by confused+one · · Score: 1

      OK, so when you look at the history, you see that no alien has landed at a major airport, stepped out and said "Hi, Take me to your leaders." I'm sorry to disappoint but interstellar distances are vast and we may live in a corner of the Milky Way with nothing interesting (besides us) going on right now. Or, it could be that no one whose passed by has seen anything worth stopping for yet. (Think of the paperwork man!)

      You can't let SETI's efforts be indicative that there's nothing out there. The reality is they listen to specific frequencies (which might not be the right ones) and scan the sky slowly (so they might miss a signal). Another problem is that, even with the best equipment available to them, SETI simply could not hear signals beyond a few hundred light years. That is unless someone channeled the entire output of a star and pointed it at us, which seems unlikely to happen. That few hundred light years represents a tiny fraction of the Milky Way.

      It could be that advanced civilizations kill themselves off at a high rate. It would be hard to believe that they all kill themselves off. Could be they spread more slowly than we expect them to. If FTL transport is impossible it could take a very long time for any civilization to spread among the stars.

    3. Re:look up by olau · · Score: 1

      It's a beautiful thought.

      However, consider living in Sahara for the rest of your life. You are allowed to bring whatever you like when you move there (i.e. everything you can afford), but once you've moved, you'll have to do with what you can find. Would you really like to move to such a place?

      And living in Sahara would probably be orders of magnitude easier than living in space.

      It is just not practical.

  59. We need two earths? by mikein08 · · Score: 1, Funny

    Alright, let's create one on Mars. Send all the Democrats, illegal aliens, moslems, and 2/3s of the populations of China and India there and all will be well.

    1. Re:We need two earths? by shougyin · · Score: 1

      So long as you take my X-Wife as well!

    2. Re:We need two earths? by mcornelius · · Score: 1

      No, fuck that. They can stay; I'm going.

    3. Re:We need two earths? by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      Having an X-Wife sounds kind of cool. What super powers does she have?

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    4. Re:We need two earths? by shougyin · · Score: 1

      Know how angry the Hulk gets before he gets huge? Well, you won't turn huge at all, but you will be just as angry!

  60. Well, of course. by Animats · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Of course. Human civilizations are about 3000 years old, but industrial civilization is only 200 years old. Only in the past 100 years has large-scale resource extraction, large enough to make a big dent in potential supply, been feasible. The really rich ores, like veins of copper with over 1% metal, are long gone. Over the next century, lots of stuff is going to run out. Oil production peaked in 2005. There hasn't been a major new energy source in the last half century; just improvements on previous ones.

    The "free market will solve all problems" crowd was insisting that peak oil would never happen. But it did. The price of oil has tripled without an increase in supply.

    1. Re:Well, of course. by khallow · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Of course. Human civilizations are about 3000 years old, but industrial civilization is only 200 years old. Only in the past 100 years has large-scale resource extraction, large enough to make a big dent in potential supply, been feasible. The really rich ores, like veins of copper with over 1% metal, are long gone. Over the next century, lots of stuff is going to run out. Oil production peaked in 2005. There hasn't been a major new energy source in the last half century; just improvements on previous ones.

      So what? Recycling alone handles virtually all of that hypothetical supply problem. And no new energy source in the last half century? Let me break it to you, there hasn't been a new energy source in the past 4.6 or so billion years yet we have yet to need another source of energy.

      The "free market will solve all problems" crowd was insisting that peak oil would never happen. But it did. The price of oil has tripled without an increase in supply.

      The first sentence isn't true. Peak oil is quite consistent with free market theory. And the "tripling" in price of oil is the price signal that will encourage people to seek alternatives to oil.

    2. Re:Well, of course. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      what we need are a few big wars ... kill off a billion or two.

    3. Re:Well, of course. by MadUndergrad · · Score: 1

      Don't be so obtuse about the energy problem - you sound like an ass.

    4. Re:Well, of course. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Over the next century, lots of stuff is going to run out.

      Sigh..

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_conservation_of_mass

    5. Re:Well, of course. by khallow · · Score: 1

      Don't be so obtuse about the energy problem - you sound like an ass.

      What energy problem? Even including agriculture, the human race uses a few orders of magnitude less energy than the Earth intercepts from the Sun. Solar and wind power separately could power the entire human race. Then we have fission power as well as a number of lesser sources (such as hydro, geothermal, and tidal). And conservation is always a possible strategy, if it should become relevant (say to reduce price shocks).

      I'm continually astounded by people who can claim without even a shred of justification that we have an energy problem.

    6. Re:Well, of course. by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      Meh.

      Peak oil is only validated if you believe that price floats freely in an actual open market system. To suggest that the price has anything more than a trivial connection with supply is naive. Finally, look at the excellent fixed-dollar graphs of the price of oil since 1947 at wtrg: http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif
      How many other commodities have increased in value less than 1.5%/year since 1948?

      "Peak Oil" as an imminent danger (some might say "sky is falling" danger) has been a theory for 60+ years. It seems superficially logical that yes (unless you're someone who believes in the theories of abiogenic oil) the oil supply is finite, and as the supply of oil is consumed, the remainder will get more valuable over time.

      However, it's not quite that simple. I'm not even going to get into the ever-increasing world reserve numbers over, as they are suspect due to OPEC's mechanism of setting member-production quotas based on reserves. Setting that aside, there is a TON of oil out there in places where it is simply economically or politically infeasible to retrieve it. In the US EEZ alone, there are the Rocky mountain oil shales - alone an estimated 1500-1800bn bbl - not to mention offshore reserves or single fields of known high-quality oil that's not currently retrievable (like the Bakken field).

      This is compared to current total Saudi reserves of 220bn bbl.

      Finally, to suggest that "there hasn't been a major new energy source in the last half century" is meaningless. First, simply developing new sources of energy is stupid if they don't do something better than what we currently have. Witness the push in the US for ethanol - if converting food production to fuel production for a net loss of efficiency in both isn't pure idiocy, I'm not sure what is.

      Secondly, we haven't developed a new source of energy because we haven't needed to; oil, natural gas, and coal have been abundant for our purposes in the industrial age, and natural gas/coal are projected to continue to be abundant for centuries. Humans have been staggeringly successful at being flexible. As oil crosses $100/bbl for sustained periods, we will inevitably develop more efficient systems for using it - better mileage in cars, for example. As it climbs even higher

      --
      -Styopa
    7. Re:Well, of course. by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      (damn ineditable comment system) ...as it climbs even higher, we'll inevitably wean ourselves away from petroleum as an energy source and move to more portable, renewable, and probably cleaner systems simply out of economic necessity.

      IMO Adam Smith is more successful getting people to make sensible decisions over the long term than political parties or shrieking enviro-marxists.

      --
      -Styopa
    8. Re:Well, of course. by andrewirwin · · Score: 1

      It's not that simple. The peak production in 1979 was followed by lower production every year from 1980 to 1994.

    9. Re:Well, of course. by osgeek · · Score: 1

      The "free market will solve all problems" crowd was insisting that peak oil would never happen. But it did. The price of oil has tripled without an increase in supply.

      [citation needed]

    10. Re:Well, of course. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Human civilizations are about 3000 years old, but industrial civilization is only 200 years old.

      Dude, what the fuck are you talking about? Cheops ITSELF is over 4000 years old, let alone the time it took to come up with the belief system that caused it to be built in the first place!

      How the fuck did you get modded 'insightful'?!

    11. Re:Well, of course. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As a take off on a thread up above; We have an energy distribution problem.
      AC2PM

    12. Re:Well, of course. by MightyDrunken · · Score: 1

      So what? Recycling alone handles virtually all of that hypothetical supply problem.

      Only if the population does not increase, otherwise new resources will have to be gathered or we have a drop in the amount of our material goods.

      The first sentence isn't true. Peak oil is quite consistent with free market theory. And the "tripling" in price of oil is the price signal that will encourage people to seek alternatives to oil.

      But what happens in that transistion period when the oil price sky rockets? There are trillions of dollars of resources sunk in the petrochemical infrastructure. It will take at least an equal amount of resources and money to replace that with a new energy resource. For this to happen without problems the infrastructure has to be put in place before the shortage and therefore before the market has naturally responded.

      Therefore we should be intelligent and realise what the future is likely to bring upon us and act with plenty of time to spare. However too many talk about the cost and how everything is OK now. Yes things are OK now, but what about 20 years time?

  61. Of course not by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 1

    Efficiency is a good idea for its own sake. Use less, have more. Even in circumstances of abundance it is a good idea since there is always cost associated with getting materials. If you can be more efficient, then it is a good thing.

    However that doesn't make scare crap like this useful. Not only is it wildly inaccurate, but repeated shit like this can encourage people to do nothing. After all, if we are really fucked and the only thing we can do to survive is make drastic cuts or go back to pre-industrial society or to have a massive decrease in population then why do anything? Live it up, waste while you can, enjoy life because it'll all come crashing down.

    It is far better to show people what we CAN do, where there are problems, how they can be fixed, how we can work towards a future where we have a better quality of life through greater efficiency. Give people hope and inspiration, because that really is the truth. We can make things better, we can improve things. Shortages are things that can be dealt with.

    Unfortunately most of the eco side is dominated by shouting. Predictions of imminent doom unless we all follow their One True Way(tm) which just happens to require massive sacrifices. This, coupled with the fact that they are wrong all the time (as all doomsayers have been). This leads to people just not listening, even when some of what they say is right.

    Personally I think we need more people like Saul Griffith, who gave a wonderful talk about the energy problems facing us, and how we can over come them. If we ever get teh media release paperwork straight, I'll post it online.

  62. oh yes this report is real by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    THIS IS TRUE! I try to stay current with current events with current.com, but you know everyone reads the peer reviewed "Living Planet Report"!... by the WWF?

  63. outstripping what the Earth can provide by Arancaytar · · Score: 1

    WTF.

    Even at our current levels of inefficiency and wastefulness, all but an insignificant amount of potentially usable energy and resources is not harnessed. The infrastructure simply does not exist to use it.

    Predictions about sustainability aside, if our demand currently remotely approached the limit of available resources (let alone outstripped it by half), the economy would completely collapse. If it affected raw materials or energy, industrial growth would stagnate, prices would skyrocket and consumer culture would be dead in its tracks, with governments putting a strategic stranglehold on their remaining resources, and blocking all exports. If "natural resources" refers to biomass or arable land, enormous agricultural subsidies would not be necessary to ensure a stable price floor on produce.

    This kind of crap damages the credibility of the very real ecological dangers we are facing - oil spills, rampant pollution in nations with rapid industrial growth, and resulting climate change.

    1. Re:outstripping what the Earth can provide by kayoshiii · · Score: 1

      Not really - think of it like a buffer... You can take more out than you put in - the buffer gets smaller... When it starts getting really small things will get ugly but that could take some time.

  64. Absolute and utter BS. by antIP · · Score: 1

    My only question is how many times does this sort of myth have to be debunked? It's getting really, really, old.

  65. One planet... by robi5 · · Score: 1

    should be enough for anybody

  66. Yeah we need a second Earth to export the STUPID! by Phizzle · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Never mind that we constantly continue to find new resources, never mind that our technology continues to change and improve, nah its DOOM the freaking SKY is FALLING, mass extinction, whitey guilt, global colding, lack of DIVERSITY, we need one more planet. I agree with that last part - we need one more planet, because the amounts of STUPID, self righteous, pseudo intellectual, whiny douchebags who believe in wealth redistribution and entitlement has reached the limit. We need a second planet to export the STUPID.

    --
    I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.
  67. Ah yes.. Two Earths by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Whites... and Coloreds

  68. Here we go with Armageddon again, don't you learn? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What bullshit. You have to be a non-thinking ideological pinhead in your 20's to believe this kind of crap that gets repeated every 5-10 years by some new doomsday prophet. I just shake my head at the idiocy that people continually spout about the coming of Armageddon -- it's only the cause of Armageddon that changes each time another "prophet" appears to prophecy our doom. And so many of you people eat it all up...

  69. Just be honest and admit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    that "the fall of modern society and a return to agrarian, low power" lifestyles couldn't make you happier.

    --

    1. Re:Just be honest and admit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      actually. I would hate it.

  70. The Overpopulation Myth by DiSKiLLeR · · Score: 1
    --
    You can tell how powerful someone is by the magnitude of the crime they can commit and be able to get away with.
  71. Soothsaying Doomsday Futures by itsybitsy · · Score: 1

    Soothsaying Doomsday Futures is a favorite pastime of those with nothing better to do than scare the rest of us with their nonsense.

    Conjecture is just imagination. Predicting the future is a challenging business for there are so many possible futures so anyone just giving one possible future is already debunking themselves as they've left out all the other possible futures that contradict the possible future they are soothsaying doomsday about.

    "I'm trying to find out NOT how Nature could be, but how Nature IS." - Richard Feynman

  72. O RLY? by REALMAN · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "According to the Living Planet Report, human demands on natural resources have doubled in under 50 years and are now outstripping what the Earth can provide by more than half"

    Then how are we getting the resources? If I can provide 2 apples and the customer takes three where does the third one come from?

    "The report said that wildlife in tropical countries is also under huge pressure, with populations of species falling by 60 per cent in three decades, the'Daily Mail reported."

    60 percent? O' RLY? I don't think even the National Enquirer would buy that.

    "And the report, from the WWF, the Zoological Society of London and the Global Footprint Network, said that British people are still consuming far more than the Earth can cope with."

    Then how is the Earth coping?

    --
    - A Frog in a pond utters an azure cry. -
    1. Re:O RLY? by the+Gray+Mouser · · Score: 1

      Mod this up.

      What the article really says (I know, who ever RTFA?) is that if everyone lives at the same standard of living as those people in Britain, then we'll need 2 1/2 earths, or whatever that crazy number was.

      Last I checked, most of the world (including India, where TFA was published it seems) lives at a considerably lower standard, consuming far less resources than the "representative sample" of Britons.

      The article isn't news. It's more make believe than blaming Katrina on not signing Kyoto.

  73. no myths, its known science by cjacobs001 · · Score: 1

    EVERY closed ecological system eventually burns itself out. We learned that in the 3rd or 4th grade, when looking at ant farms.

    --
    cjacobs001
    1. Re:no myths, its known science by cjacobs001 · · Score: 1

      the earth is a closed system folks

      --
      cjacobs001
    2. Re:no myths, its known science by cjacobs001 · · Score: 1

      remember these posts and in 2025 look back at them.

      --
      cjacobs001
  74. wrong by bussdriver · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Technology has not progressed a whole lot this generation and its currently not moving at the exponential rate the population is.

    Projections are limited (can't predict the future) and hindsight is easy to be smug about. If everybody was to live the American way, we ran out of earths long ago. If everybody lived the EU way, we'd be 3x over the limit.

    You blow this off; thinking somehow new tech will save us-- we'll buy it and then TRASH it and newer tech will save the day... The cycle doesn't go on forever.

    Its how you decide to measure things that impacts the results so much. You may not realize we are overpopulated already but a billion people in severe poverty around the world notice it (but may not understand why and just would like to be you... but there are only so many slots available at the top end... yeah yeah, we have enough to feed everybody but its a COST and distribution problem - give them all jobs... doing what? all the livable jobs are filled...)

    Peak OIL: already hit it - if you think it amounts to output then you are grabbing the wrong stat. We can produce oil from shale at higher rates of output than ever before... if we wanted. The problem is that CHEAP to produce OIL has peaked and will never be any cheaper (barring the foolish trading games or government subsidies which only can go so far.)

    Peak Copper - coming in a decade or two. Copper will still be around but it'll cost more-- recycling it costs more.

    The system is designed around continual growth and there IS A LIMIT technology or not.

    1. Re:wrong by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      Technology has not progressed a whole lot this generation

      Your kidding, right? Where was the internet at 20 years ago? Where was computing technology? Bio-tech? Telecommunications?

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    2. Re:wrong by sFurbo · · Score: 1

      Technology has not progressed a whole lot this generation and its currently not moving at the exponential rate the population is.

      Human population growth is not exponential, and have not been for at least the last 50 years.

      The cycle doesn't go on forever.

      It might. We don't know. But we certainly need to start working on new technology (probably a repeat of the green revolution should be first priority).

      give them all jobs... doing what? all the livable jobs are filled

      It is not a zero sum game.

      Peak OIL: already hit it - if you think it amounts to output then you are grabbing the wrong stat. We can produce oil from shale at higher rates of output than ever before... if we wanted. The problem is that CHEAP to produce OIL has peaked and will never be any cheaper (barring the foolish trading games or government subsidies which only can go so far.)

      Peak Copper - coming in a decade or two. Copper will still be around but it'll cost more-- recycling it costs more.

      The system is designed around continual growth and there IS A LIMIT technology or not.

      Why? If we can get a source of cheap energy, getting every element from sea water become very possible. Most of the money people spend in western countries are not used to buy raw materials anyway, but rather human work. That part can grow indefinitely, it just requires better and better tools, or more and more copyable work, such as design, programming, etc., and more people to use it.

      Sure, we are far from there yet, and it will take a lot of work.

    3. Re:wrong by powerlord · · Score: 1

      The system is designed around continual growth and there IS A LIMIT technology or not.

      Yes and No.

      Yes the system is designed around a limit.
      Yes there is a limit to what technology can do in a given system.

      No technology could still provide a longer term crutch. In this case the technology to look at isn't just Terrestrial.
      Take the author at his/her word. We need more resources than the Earth can provide. There are lots of asteroids out there (and at least one planet we can probably land on/mine if we needed to). If we had access to the resources of the Asteroid belt and Mars, combined with Terrestrial recycling and energy generation technologies, we'd probably be fine "longer term" (longer term = the next few hundred years at least, but thats just pulling numbers out of thin air).

      --
      This space for rent. All reasonable inquiries will be entertained at proprietors discretion.
  75. absolute total fauxking horse shit hypenosys by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    so long as some folks get a new yacht etc, etc, etc.... like most of us get a new roll of toilet paper, things will be going DOWnhill (more yachts, less toilet paper). there's plenty of room & resource for twice as many of US if 2% of US would cut DOWn on their need to disable/destroy around 50%+ of US. it's not about math at all.

    the corepirate nazi holycost (life, liberty etc...) is increasing by the minute. you call this 'weather'?

    continue to add immeasurable amounts of MISinformation, rhetoric & fluff, & there you have IT? that's US? thou shalt not... oh forget it. fake weather (censored?), fake money, fake god(s), what's next? fake ?aliens? ahhaha. seeing as we (have been told that) came from monkeys, the only possible clue we would have to anything being out of order, we would get from the weather. that, & all the other monkeys tipping over/exploding around US.

    the search continues; on any search engine

    weather+manipulation

    bush+cheney+wolfowitz+rumsfeld+wmd+oil+freemason+blair+obama+weather+authors

    meanwhile (as it may take a while longer to finish wrecking this place); the corepirate nazi illuminati (remember, (we have been told) we came from monkeys, & 'they' believe they DIDN'T), continues to demand that we learn to live on less/nothing while they continue to consume/waste/destroy immeasurable amounts of stuff/life, & feast on nubile virgins while worshipping themselves (& evile in general (baal to be exact)). they're always hunting that patch of red on almost everyones' neck. if they cannot find yours (greed, fear ego etc...) then you can go starve. that's their (slippery/slimy) 'platform' now. see also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisocial_personality_disorder

    never a better time to consult with/trust in our creators. the lights are coming up rapidly all over now. see you there?

    greed, fear & ego (in any order) are unprecedented evile's primary weapons. those, along with deception & coercion, helps most of us remain (unwittingly?) dependent on its' life0cidal hired goons' agenda. most of our dwindling resources are being squandered on the 'wars', & continuation of the billionerrors stock markup FraUD/pyramid schemes. nobody ever mentions the real long term costs of those debacles in both life & any notion of prosperity for us, or our children. not to mention the abuse of the consciences of those of us who still have one, & the terminal damage to our atmosphere/planet (see also: manufactured 'weather', hot etc...). see you on the other side of it? the lights are coming up all over now. the fairytail is winding down now. let your conscience be your guide. you can be more helpful than you might have imagined. we now have some choices. meanwhile; don't forget to get a little more oxygen on your brain, & look up in the sky from time to time, starting early in the day. there's lots going on up there.

    "The current rate of extinction is around 10 to 100 times the usual background level, and has been elevated above the background level since the Pleistocene. The current extinction rate is more rapid than in any other extinction event in earth history, and 50% of species could be extinct by the end of this century. While the role of humans is unclear in the longer-term extinction pattern, it is clear that factors such as deforestation, habitat destruction, hunting, the introduction of non-native species, pollution and climate change have reduced biodiversity profoundly.' (wiki)

    "I think the bottom line is, what kind of a world do you want to leave for your children," Andrew Smith, a professor in the Arizona State University School of Life Sciences, said in a telephone interview. "How impoverished we would be if we lost 25 percent of the world's mammals," said Smith, one of more than 100 co-authors of the report. "Within our lifetime hundreds of species could be lost as a result of our own actions, a frightening sign of what is happening to the ecosystems where they live," added Julia Marton-Lefevre, I

  76. Solution is not very attractive, but doomed to by Steeltoe · · Score: 1, Interesting

    happen: Cut down the population of the earth down to, say, 5-10% of the 6 billion people living today. Earth will be able to sustain human life for almost indefinately, in human terms at least. Nature and wildlife may even flourish again with population growth in check.

    With population growth following an exponential line, the crash will happen sooner than later, as it does with ALL species on earth.. No, it most probably won't happen by our free choice.. War, famine, natural disasters is our heritage to our children, but hardly new events anyways. This has happened many times before. However, we DONT need to go down with a crash.

    We don't NEED cars, holidays abroad, junk food, and lots of other stuff that destroys the environment. Yeah, now it's kinda cool, but we've lost our heritage, we're like orphans, rootless and directionless.
    We don't sing, unless in a drunken stupor in a bad karaoke bar.
    We don't dance, unless high on some kind of drug.
    We don't relax, unless passified in front of the stare-box serving propaganda and lies.

    I could go on and on. All of this are just "common" sense facts, but as long as we're immersed in life as it is now, we are unable to see how much better our lives would be without artificial foods, unnecessary junk gadgets and non-challenging lives.

    Our best bet would be to start improving our lives now, and it might make it more interesting as well, instead of watching the 10.000th movie, with a plot similar to 100 other movies you've seen.

    The rest of the post is left as an exercise to the sincere reader.

    Changes will happen, with or without us..

    1. Re:Solution is not very attractive, but doomed to by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      We don't sing, unless in a drunken stupor in a bad karaoke bar.
      We don't dance, unless high on some kind of drug.
      We don't relax, unless passified in front of the stare-box serving propaganda and lies.

      Speak for yourself.....

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    2. Re:Solution is not very attractive, but doomed to by Jedi+Alec · · Score: 1

      You know, as an active member of a green party, it really irks me to see so many ignoramuses around that gives those of us who actually live in the real world a bad name.

      As for your singing and dancing part...have you left the basement anywhere in the past 10 years? Plenty of folks happen to sing and dance without any need for alcohol or narcotics. Heck, pretty much any modern house comes with a room that is equipped for singing (not so much for dancing), it's called a shower. Try it some time.

      --

      People replying to my sig annoy me. That's why I change it all the time.
  77. Colonizing Venus by Baron_Yam · · Score: 1

    Actually, we might theoretically colonize Venus using structures that float high up in the Venusian atmosphere.

    Since we'd be living in sealed units, we probably wouldn't give a damn about pollution, either... so we'd play even less nicely with Venus that we have with Earth.

    In some ways, Venus is a more attractive colonization target than Mars.

  78. well by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Start killing chinks and niggers..

  79. They will need 2 Hell's also----- by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Isa 5:14 Therefore hell hath enlarged herself, and opened her mouth without measure: and their glory, and their multitude, and their pomp, and he that rejoiceth, shall descend into it.

    1. Re:They will need 2 Hell's also----- by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      most of you will be THERE

  80. Strawmen alert! by Steeltoe · · Score: 1

    Erm, who are "they"?

    Maybe there is some more magical thinking going on here, right in this forum?

    I've trouble reading your posts for all those strawmens falling out of it..

    1. Re:Strawmen alert! by ChromeAeonium · · Score: 1

      Organic proponents, the people who equate natural with superior. Guess I should have been more specific. Seeing as how the top post got modded flamebait too, I guess you're right about magical thinking right here. Care to point out my strawmen? Spend enough time reading organic claims, you'll find everything I said about their beliefs is pretty much true.

  81. Technology? by The+Shootist · · Score: 1

    The writer ignores technological innovation at his (and the readers) peril.

  82. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Funny, I was sure you were going to say A. Al Gore.

  83. bringing more mass ot earth will have consequences by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    eventually you will have to take as much off the earth as yo put on thus a doubling of sorts per pound of resource you wish unless you wish to affect the earths orbit and attraction of um er that big er moon over there.

  84. Malthusianism by mcornelius · · Score: 1

    Malthusianism: scaring the shit out of ignorant do-gooders for more than two centuries now.

  85. need 800 trillion iPhones by 2012 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Based on the previous growth rates of iphone sales, Apple will need to crank out a staggering 800 trillion by the end of 2012 to keep up with demand. I'm sure they're ramping up their production lines now.

    Supply, demand, and cost. Rare resources will price themselves out of extensive use and alternatives will have to be found. If you are truly a "we should go back to cavemen status" type, why fuss? We'll get there soon enough if you are right. If not, all your fussing was useless.

  86. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by MaWeiTao · · Score: 1

    You don't deal with many non-profits do you? Even middle-management at many non-profits earn a very healthy income, easily on par with anything the corporate world offers. From the perspective of employees these non-profits are for-profit entities.

    That said, some of those executives you describe are directly responsible for the existence of non-profits. The money has to come from somewhere.

  87. According to our schedule... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    we planning on having the robot uprising before then, which will free up a lot of resources, once we eliminate most of you humans.

    Love,
    R2D2

  88. What's going to stop it? by whereiswaldo · · Score: 1

    So the health of the Earth is in a tailspin and we've still got people/corporations that continue to large-scale strip whatever they can get their hands on.

    Tar sands of Alberta, Canada will eventually be the size of Florida, USA. Besides the completely destroyed wildlife habitat, millions (yes, really) of birds will die in the toxic tailing ponds and billions of gallons of pristine glacier water will be made toxic. This when thousands of species are endangered and millions of people don't have safe drinking water.

    Shark finning for the Chinese market have caused over 90% of the world shark population to disappear.

    What issues are you aware of?

  89. I don't know what it will be like in 2030 by suburbanmediocrity · · Score: 1

    but I need two earths now.

  90. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 1

    Al Gore was already a very rich man long before Climate Change got so big.

  91. Whatever... by Wilson+of+Waste · · Score: 1

    The world is going to end in 2012! Who really cares about a year that won't exist! Any-way, I thought we still had Mars... /sarcasm/

  92. How Long Will Our World Last? Yes, We Are Screwed. by 12WTF$ · · Score: 1

    Quote:
    copper—which is everywhere around you—will be gone in about 61 years;
    antimony—widely used in medicines—will be depleted in 20 years;
    while indium, rhodium, platinum, or silver—which are present in many essential consumer electronics—won't last much longer.
    And those estimations are only valid if we manage to consume half of what we are consuming now.

    http://gizmodo.com/5219598/how-long-will-our-world-last-yes-we-are-screwed

    But not to worry that was 4 years ago, before the GFC. Surely the future is so much rosier now.

    --
    Cryonics - Keep cool and carry on.
  93. old growth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Ya know, I hear this all the time, yet I have never heard of any sort of viable actual real alternative for the people living in these areas. They need jobs, any sort of income. Old growth is that, old, needs to be harvested, but oh noes, can't use any exotic old growth jungle hardwoods because....people with jobs in the developed nations say so. Can't have more farmland because...no idea, people need to eat, it has to be grown. Ya, maybe it isn't the best land, but *it is the land they have*, it is what they have to use. They have no other choices. They burn their woods down because they aren't allowed to sell the timber in the first place! Of course they would rather sell it, but it is "embargoed" and such like. They have to do something, so the woods there, the old growth forests, "accidentally" burns down instead of being harvested and used to build good furniture and lumber for homes, etc. So then they grow cattle and corn and soybeans for cattle, because they need "exports", usually to pay off rich as snot western bankers/IMF folks
    Catch 22 squared.

    This is what I hear as an option for hundreds of millions of very poor people, they will all exist on "eco tourism", because they shouldn't be allowed to do anything else, like logging, farming, mining, etc. "eco tourism" is supposed to support hundreds of millions of the poorest people on the planet. Everything else is bad for the environment, and is unsustainable, so they should just suck it up and sit under the dripping trees all day for a living.

    They pull this crap in the western US every sumer, can't log, can't build roads, but it is OK to let all that resource burn up in massive millions of acres of forest fires instead. Same people cause that, misguided eco nazis who don't really understand nature and economics, they just can't see how much harm THEY cause by insisting on looney tunes policies guaranteed to keep poor people poor, and guaranteed to WASTE resources.

    How quaint. Wait, how do those eco tourists get there to go visit the pristine old ready to croak trees? Oh ya, fly there in smog spewing jets...how double quaint. Then they go home and sit in air conditioned offices and luxury homes and urban apartments and pontificate about how all those poor people need to "stop destroying their environment". They can't even see that where they live and how they live is about as un-natural as it gets and about as energy intensive and resource exploiting as it gets, yet they dis and dump on the poorest for trying to make an honest living *somehow*.

    1. Re:old growth by Bertie · · Score: 1

      There isn't an alternative. There are simply too many people. If we don't control the population, the Earth will control it for us, and we won't like them.

      People really need to face up to this. It's at the heart of every single problem we face.

    2. Re:old growth by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      There are simply too many people... It's at the heart of every single problem we face.

      Leafs, left on lawns, kill the grass. How is overpopulation at the heart of this problem? Or maybe it's not at the heart of every problem.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
  94. Mandatory reading by regular_gonzalez · · Score: 1

    The Simon-Ehrlich wager is required reading for anyone making or reading about such claims.

    --
    Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am master of my fate and captain of my soul.
  95. Methodology, anyone? by necrostopheles · · Score: 1

    The key phrase in tfa looks like "absorb the carbon dioxide they emit." How many earths will be needed if we shift to a low/no carbon economy? Have they factored in any allowance for increased efficiency? It'd it be nice to see some breakdown of the analysis, not just a bald number.

  96. Stop being disingenuous and condecending by apparently · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Meanwhile, the "organic food" folks insist that food must be grown using only slightly modified classical techniques, for a variety of reasons from vitamin density (overstated relative to studies, at best), to mystical mumbo jumbo like vibrations and auras.

    Give me a break. the issue that the "organic food" folk are concerning about is farm animals being pumped full of antibiotics because they're crammed into confined places in which their walking on, breathing in, and ingesting fecal matter and the remains of other dead animals. This has nothing to do with "vibrations", "auras", or any such bull that you pulled out of your ass, and the fact that you have to lie about the viewpoint that you oppose speaks volumes.

    1. Re:Stop being disingenuous and condecending by ChromeAeonium · · Score: 1

      Nope. Those are legitimate concerns, but not what organic is about. Organic proponents are concerned, first and foremost, that antibiotics aren't natural. That they can cause dangerous resistant strains to emerge is a secondary issue. Factory farming conditions are a separate matter entirely; plenty of factory farmed organic meat out there. It would be like if you thought gremlins were in your car and it turned out you happened to have a loose spark plug...sure, you're right about one thing, but you're still superstitious. Just because organic is right about some things (and indeed they are) doesn't mean organic isn't naturalistic mumbo jumbo. Remember, every snake-oil peddling quack in the world encourages proper diet and exercise; doesn't mean they're not full of crap. And speaking of which, seeing as how people who didn't go for science based medicine fell in with auras and vibrations, why should anyone think that those against science based agriculture won't do the same? It really isn't that unfair of a comparison. You don't have to support bad farming practices to understand that organic is wrong.

  97. Man's First Words by NicknamesAreStupid · · Score: 1

    "We're doomed!" Ever since, it has been true for each of us. As they say, "nobody gets out alive."

  98. Bogus by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Earth has space for over 50 billion in comfort.
    Plus the population curve has leveled off.

  99. Two Earths is a really large quantity... by one+cup+of+coffee · · Score: 1

    Can anyone tell me what that is in Libraries of Congress?

  100. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    al gore has done quite well for himself.

  101. Earth != Closed System by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The Earth is NOT a closed system: Random Proof #423789527.
    If you can't find better examples, then you must be literally blind. That example was just the first I thought of.
    CAPTCHA: refine

  102. Nonsense by mschuyler · · Score: 1

    Paul Ehrlich, the Club of Rome, Saul of Tarsus, and any extant Cargo Cult all predicted doom within our lifetime. Never happened. Oh! We're running out of oil! (If you believe oil is made of dead dinosaurs, I suppose so. But what if, ==just== what if oil is not from dead dinosaurs? What if it's from the formation of the earth? Oh! we're running out of food! Umm, we haven't. All this doomsday stuff is just like any number of millenial cults claiming we're all going to die. Conserve resources? You bet! But let's not be stupid about this. It's much more likely an ice age is goug to get us than global, er, umm, "climate disruptionn."

    --
    How about a moderation of -1 pedantic.
  103. Population Control... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Take away all alcoholic beverages and makeup and the population explosion would cease!! Then all the 'baby boomers' die out and... Problem solved!! Hahhaha.

  104. adapt by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yes we will need two earths, because it's inconceivable that human beings ever adapt.

  105. Solution by Sardaukar0 · · Score: 1

    Somebody call Starbuck and get some Hendrix records, we'll have this thing solved by dinner.

    1. Re:Solution by neminem · · Score: 1

      Great, now I have that fracking cover back in my head. You know how long it took to get that thing out, the first time?

  106. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 3, Informative

    You don't deal with many non-profits do you? Even middle-management at many non-profits earn a very healthy income, easily on par with anything the corporate world offers.

    Let's see, the CEO of the WWF (the authors of the report) earns a whopping $465,427. Now have a look at this list of CEO compensation by industry type. Can you see any under $1,000,000? How many over $10,000,000? They are certainly not on par with the WWF salaries.

    That said, some of those executives you describe are directly responsible for the existence of non-profits. The money has to come from somewhere.

    No, not the ones we are talking about. Do you really think that the mining industries are funding the climate advocate groups? No, I don't think so. Sure they have their own industry groups and think-tanks, but none of those could be called "tree huggers".

  107. ad hominem FAIL by SuperBanana · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem Seriously, how did you get modded up to 5, "insightful" for just saying "Durrr, they're biased"

    1. Re:ad hominem FAIL by urusan · · Score: 1

      For the same reason that pointing out that a study was funded by an oil corporation gets modded up?

    2. Re:ad hominem FAIL by davev2.0 · · Score: 1

      I see. We should blindly accept everything from sources YOU like or that support your views while blindly rejecting everything from sources you DON'T like or don't support your views. Yes, very reasonable there.

      No, I don't think so.

      There is this thing called critical thinking, maybe you should try it some time.

  108. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Shakrai · · Score: 1

    It reminds me of when the three CEOs [go.com] of the car industry all took private planes to lobby Washington for a taxpayer handout.

    So it would have made more sense for the people that have huge companies to run to waste their time driving there or flying commercial? I loved seeing politicians that regularly fly on private jets (whether it's POTUS on AF1 or Congress-critters that fly on lobbyist jets or military flights) condemning others for doing the same.

    --
    I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
    We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
  109. Overpopulation by Wolfling1 · · Score: 1

    It seems to me that modern society has a fascination with 'end of the world' scenarios. Whether they be zombie apocalypse, meteor strike or climate change, there seems to be some inherent human comprehension that the planet is overpopulated.

    Perhaps this is driven by our biological desire to kill off the competition (literally), or perhaps it is that we have a real internal comprehension that there are too many people on the planet.

    Interestingly, our fascination is with a massive reduction in world population due to some external factor. This is very typical of a natural human tendency to avoid taking responsibility. 'Wouldn't it be nice if a meteor came and wiped out 90% of the population? Then, I wouldn't have to do it. And of course, I'd be one of the survivors...'

    What concerns me is that human-controlled population growth is very unpopular. Which I find fascinating when there are so many attractive opportunities. Imagine the elimination of every genetic disease and human abnormality. Reduce pre-disposition to alcohol addiction, violent crime, Polio, MS... perhaps even nail some nasty diseases like Herpes. Whilst I don't believe in the Aryan ideals, I fully expect to be labelled as such. One more way in which we are refusing to accept responsibility.

  110. 42 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Exactly 42 Libraries of Congress.

  111. I see only one reasonable solution by m6ack · · Score: 1

    WAR!!!

    1. Re:I see only one reasonable solution by Aphoxema · · Score: 1

      WAR!!!

      War isn't as good at wiping out populations as it used to be and the places it decimates remain survivable homes that build contempt in the victims who will then be more likely to waste resource in retaliation with terrorist attacks and starting their own wars.

      War also consumes more resources than most regular living conditions. The habits of members of industrialized countries might be the exception, but industrialized countries like the be involved in wars away from home.

      --
      "Most people, I think, don't even know what a rootkit is, so why should they care about it?"
    2. Re:I see only one reasonable solution by m6ack · · Score: 1

      We could do mass sterilization of the conquered? How about just sterilizing all stupid people? (Ever seen Idiocracy?)

    3. Re:I see only one reasonable solution by Aphoxema · · Score: 1

      We could do mass sterilization of the conquered? How about just sterilizing all stupid people? (Ever seen Idiocracy?)

      The problem with sterilizing people for being stupid is we'd be rapidly made extinct.

      --
      "Most people, I think, don't even know what a rootkit is, so why should they care about it?"
  112. Stop breeding!!! by LordAzuzu · · Score: 1

    http://www.vhemt.org

  113. Re:Even less-known fact by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Even less-known: The "shocking twist" which was shoe-horned into the movie was utterly stupid, and there's really nothing wrong with cannibalism. Nobody in the movie was killed for purposes of cannibalism (rather: they were killed due to indifference or to put less of a drain on resources). The proclamation that "soon they'll be breeding us like cattle!" is not only quite a stretch, but utterly impossible (breeding people to feed people because you don't have enough people food? wtf?) It is simple to deduce that corpses are being used to feed people where no alternative exists. This is not a bad thing at all. The idea that "Human meat is being eaten!" should, with no other qualification, be considered evil or shocking, is absurd.

  114. Easy solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Let's just get another Earth then!

  115. Obvious solution is... by Rothron+the+Wise · · Score: 1

    We should procure another planet.

    --
    A witty .sig proves nothing
  116. Malthus was a Conservative by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Predicting the end of the world every year for the past millennium has to be getting dull and old. The only people with a more consistent record of being wrong about the end of the world than Malthusians are religious cults.

    Malthus did not predict the end of the world. He did not say we should protect the environment, recycle or anything like that at all. What Malthus, who was an ultra-conservative cleric, was arguing was that we should not feed the poor. He was anti-welfare, that's all. His aim was to show that it was pointless to take any measures to avoid starvation.

    In fact the big error he makes, in presuming geometric population growth, was due to his religious conservatism. He argued that it was unacceptable to counter the population growth which would result from feeding the poor by providing contraception. Contraception could not be countenanced because it doomed the user to eternal damnation. Far better that they starve.

    Malthus was not a proto-greenie by any shot of the imagination, and people urging restraint in the consumption of resources cannot accurately be referred to as Malthusians. People who argue that we should not send aid to Africa are Malthusian.

  117. imo by apricots · · Score: 1

    so wait. does this mean that we're just going to be out of oil in 20 years? who cares? we have electric cars, and we have solar and wind farms! its not like we "NEEEEED" an entire new earth!!! plus the likelihood of us finding a suitable world for us within 20 years is isn't looking very good. much less constructing transportation to ship necessary oil-gathering equipment there!! it would take a lot longer then 20 years!!! by the time it gets to the new earth. we'll already have adapted to what we have! so i think that option is a no-go. imo

    1. Re:imo by Aphoxema · · Score: 1

      so wait. does this mean that we're just going to be out of oil in 20 years? who cares? we have electric cars, and we have solar and wind farms! its not like we "NEEEEED" an entire new earth!!!

      plus the likelihood of us finding a suitable world for us within 20 years is isn't looking very good. much less constructing transportation to ship necessary oil-gathering equipment there!! it would take a lot longer then 20 years!!! by the time it gets to the new earth. we'll already have adapted to what we have!

      so i think that option is a no-go. imo

      No one is suggesting that colonizing a new world is an appropriate option. The point is if we don't live more practically based on future loss of resources we take for granted now, we'll be up shit creek because there's nowhere to run to.

      And for adapting... that's the problem, we aren't, we're using more and there's more of us. We should be begging people to turn to abstinence (of actual intercourse), contraceptives and abortion, especially if that person lacks their own fiscal resources to care for a resource consuming child (and future resource consuming adult). Unfortunately, and I blame this on religion-before-thought, society has been built on the idea of popping out babies and buying every piece of shit plastic whatever and eating more than we need.

      Really though, the eating more than we need is the least of our problems. What we eat would probably be about right if we stopped depending on cars for every little trip and the mindless commutes that have somehow become "normal". Gasoline should be reserved for production of vital goods and distribution, not (me included) going to the other side of town for Taco Bell.

      --
      "Most people, I think, don't even know what a rootkit is, so why should they care about it?"
    2. Re:imo by apricots · · Score: 1

      idk you have some good points there but... you can make people eat and live cheaper. you can make them drive electric cars and bikes, you can have them grow a farm etc etc. but you CAN NOT make someone not have kids. in my opinion it will never happen. i know a lot of people that would rather see the earth reach its end, then if they were told they couldn't have children. (sorry about my point of view) but to even a semi-religious person, having kids IS the meaning of life. no kids = no life to be had. again, i live to have kids, if i don't have kids, i would rather die. im sorry for my attitude, but i cant stress this enough. (and this isn't pointed directly at you) YOU CAN'T FREAKIN MAKE SOMEONE NOT HAVE KIDS!!!!! ITS THEIR LIFE!!! AND YOU CANT MAKE SOMEONE NON-RELIGIOUS!!!! So its not an option!!!! again sorry sorry sorry! i think we CAN make a difference in our life. i mean i don't know about anyone else, but i would be happy to go build a wind turbine for my family's house! it would be awesome! i don't see why everyone doesn't! my point is, we need to look at ALL the alternatives, and consider them, and choose the most sane approach.

  118. This is really false, my father is a farmer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My father runs a mid-sized farm which produces corn, soy, wheat, green beans, and other assortments of agricultural goods. Anytime I've brought up how over-tapped our Earth is for space or food, he laughs at me and says we are barely covering a tiny bit of what our land is capable of, both in living space and food production. And, I know for a fact that with a 3 foot by 2 foot small garden my father keeps for personal enjoyment in his backyard that it can more than provide abnormally large vegetables in ridiculous quantities; tomatoes, celery, cauliflower, cucumbers, eggplants, etc. In fact there is always more than we can eat, he overproduces even on that small little personal garden, filling baskets to the brim with food. He gives it away to neighbors, friends and family. The tomatoes and other produce you purchase in the stores have been plucked too early and frozen, that's why they're so small. Real tomatoes for example, are big, juicy and far more tasty than the ones you get on your fast food burger. The same goes for other produce. It used to be that families could provide for their whole family with a cow for milk, chickens for eggs, and a small plot of land for vegetables. If you look at the massive quantities of eggs just a handful hens produce, you could feed an army on just that.

    I really think we should take these guys with a grain of salt who keep saying the world will come to an end by 2030. What do they even know, ask someone who grows food for a living and they'll tell you the truth.

    Anyone who argues we'll be out of oil just wants the price of crude to go up because they're invested in it. We haven't even tapped some of the wells that are being built right now, many of them are just sitting there unused. More are being drilled every day and those won't even start to be tapped for their resources for years to come, and it will be a long time before they're empty. Enormous quantities of oil are still to be had underneath both continental landmasses and in the oceans, not to mention the ridiculous quantities available if we ever need to convert shale.

    Go ahead and argue that potable water is running out? Desalinate the ocean instead. Did you know that the FDA has outlawed that in the U.S.? Does anyone realize if the morons out west did that instead of damming up the rivers and making giant reservoirs so they can have fancy golf courses, they wouldn't be running out of water, the farmland there wouldn't be drying up and they'd still have a riverbed. Instead they spray it on people in Arizona as they walk past shops, and irrigate large commercial sod manufacturing plots that destroy the top soil permanently.

    The Earth has more than enough to go around.

    You're just doing it wrong.

    1. Re:This is really false, my father is a farmer... by 19thNervousBreakdown · · Score: 1

      We always had plenty of food growing up on the farm, therefore every resource is overabundant.

      --
      <xml><I><am><so><damn>Web 2.0</damn></so></am></I></xml>
    2. Re:This is really false, my father is a farmer... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No one cares about the boogie man under your bed.

      ...an online survey I took on a "planet-friendly" website. They had a form with questions like "How often do you shower / how much garbage do you throw away / how many miles do you drive." When I entered everything in honestly, I was given a number that was supposed to describe how much of the earth's resources I was using (wasting), and that I need to cut back.

      So I tried filling it out from scratch again, only I responded with 0 to every question...basically I could not have filled it out the way I did unless I existed in a cave, or not at all. In the end, I still got a positive number and a report that told me I need to cut back on how much of the earth's resources I used.

      This wolf crying is worse than the Apocolypse men caring the "End of The World Is Near" signs on the street, but I would say these nut bags are crazier than the man carrying the sign.

  119. Huh? by arcite · · Score: 1

    If you really believe that you are delusional. In most emerging economies you're getting 5-10% year on year growth. Thats real growth. In the US what is it this year? 1.5%? Same in most of Europe. The only way these countries will grow as consumer based societies is to make more consumers, and that will mean greater immigration. This is also why many predict that in 20 years most people will be speaking Spanish and Mexican in the US. It all comes down to demographics.

    1. Re:Huh? by khallow · · Score: 1

      If you really believe that you are delusional. In most emerging economies you're getting 5-10% year on year growth. Thats real growth. In the US what is it this year? 1.5%? Same in most of Europe. The only way these countries will grow as consumer based societies is to make more consumers, and that will mean greater immigration. This is also why many predict that in 20 years most people will be speaking Spanish and Mexican in the US. It all comes down to demographics.

      Two things. First, those "real growth" numbers are pulled out of someone's ass. Sure, they're probably considerably higher than the developed world since living standard is improving even though population is increasing, but GDP numbers for most of the world are in large part fantasy. Second, you have to take into account the excessive regulation and economic parasitism common to the developed world. That substantially depresses GDP growth for reasons not having to do with population.

  120. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Uh oh, another "non-profit" group must need money to supplement their jet's and expensive dinners.

    That is a stupid argument. Imagine you see someone disemabarking from a private jet, wearing a suit that costs more than the salaries of you and I combined, just so that they can attend an expensive dinner in another city. Which is more likely?

    1. They are a climate scientist (or member of a tree-hugging, non-profit group).
    2. They are a mining executive.

    Which side of this argument has the most financial interest in arguing either for or against limiting our use of Earth's resources? Let's face it, you don't get super rich by becoming a climate scientist.

    It reminds me of when the three CEOs of the car industry all took private planes to lobby Washington for a taxpayer handout. But no, I am sure that you are right that it is the tree-huggers who are the ones trying to greedily screw us all for money.

    For a moment there I thought that the so called mining executive was Al Gore. A big problem with politically charged issues such as this is that you often have a situation where the pot is calling the kettle black, and both the pot and kettle are right. Then you have the pot and kettle charging their political bases to keep in power.

    It's clear that the earth can sustain only so much. The problem of rallying all the people of the earth to do something responsible is a tough one. Personally, I don't believe that it's likely. Anyone with a clear head should plan for the worst possibility while working for the best solution, but it's such a tattered mess right now that only an act short of brainwashing 6 billion people would be effective.

    The real issue should be stated properly. Just how much can the earth handle before everything falls apart?

  121. 2 Earths? We might not even have 1 by then... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/

  122. Where's my grant money? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hey, WTG! I think he solved Global Warming!!!

  123. Wrong perspective. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Alternatively the Earth will simply need less humans. Time for another pandemic or two methinks.

  124. What kind of resources by f0rk · · Score: 1

    We have just under an unlimited amount of resources on Earth.
    Oil is just a fraction of all the resources we have. Coal is just a fraction of all the resources we have.

    We could invest in proper nuclear reactors, with minimal waste. We could invest more in fusion reactors. Fuck, why even care about such complicated ways of extracting energy, when we could invest in the likes of solar power, tidal power, wave power, and wind power. Most fuel based power (I cant come up with a better word), like coal, oil, and nuclear, is messy and expensive.

    The oil companies are starting to see the problem. I promise, the oil companies (the same companies that rule the world) are going to get the same retard safety net that all the banks got, and i don't think we will recover this time.

    In the end, it's all about energy, and thats is something we have plenty of.

    Who wants to design some open source/open schematics alternative generators?

  125. Pollution and natural resources by Targon · · Score: 1

    One thing that people do not think about is how bad policies should not be supported. In the long run, this means that people will die due to shortages, and perhaps the rest of the world should let this happen.

    Look at China, and I mean seriously look at China. The levels of pollution are getting so high, I predict there will be mass deaths due to how bad the air quality is, if that has not already started happening. If the rest of the world does not help, the population in China will go down over time, reducing the demand for resources. I am not saying it is a good thing, but the Chinese government is pushing for production at all costs, and at some point, all that pollution will end up killing their population off.

    There have been starving children in Ethiopia for decades....and if people would stop helping over there, the population would drop, there would be fewer children, and things there would balance out, rather than having people reproducing when they can't even feed themselves.

    If there are food shortages to the point of starvation, do you really think that the rest of the world will jump in to help if they are also having problems with food production? Most countries already are taking the attitude that they can not help in the event of a natural disaster, and the USA is the only country that has been taking on additional debt just to help other countries when they have a problem. When the USA stops bailing out the rest of the world, then we will see things balance out a bit when it comes to supply and demand. This may sound cold, but honestly, if people are predicting that there will not be enough food to feed everyone in only 20 years, then we SHOULD let those who have no hope of feeding themselves just die out NOW, since an increasing population of people who can't help themselves is the problem.

    Oil and such is an issue that the USA is dealing with by looking for other ways to generate power, and if oil were to suddenly become unavailable, do you honestly think that any other country would help US? Helping friends is one thing, but just trying to "save the world", is hurting the world more than helping. Getting people past a natural disaster is only useful if the people getting help NOW will be able to take care of themselves. But, we should not save people from themselves, because that just isn't a viable long-term solution. If the Chinese government wants to kill off the population of China with pollution, let them! If after 40 years Ethiopia can't provide enough food to feed the population, then isn't it time to let the population there SHRINK to the point where they can feed themselves?

  126. Don't forget your hat! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Thisaway to thems Asteroids. And Mars. And gas-giants' moons. The other way to Venus. Resources enough for at least 10 Earths.for centuries. Or millenia. Now git.

  127. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Burnhard · · Score: 1

    Which side of this argument has the most financial interest in arguing either for or against limiting our use of Earth's resources? Let's face it, you don't get super rich by becoming a climate scientist.

    One has a financial interest (the businessman), the other has a political interest (the Climate Scientist - especially if he's a post-normal scientist) and his employers (most likely an academic institution) have a financial interest. It's likely that the scientist will be involved in consultancy, so he will actually have a financial interest tangentially too. Your argument, attempting as it does to attribute motive, is entirely bogus.

  128. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How many climate scientist are in WWF? None.

  129. Laws of physics by bonkeydcow · · Score: 1

    Matter can neither be created nor destroyed. The minerals still exist it's called recycling.

    1. Re:Laws of physics by Aphoxema · · Score: 1

      Matter can neither be created nor destroyed. The minerals still exist it's called recycling.

      Ultimately the problem is a lack of energy. We could probably tear everything apart to their base elements but the work that would need to go into is astronomical.

      What would be nice is if we could somehow smash matter into nothing but atomic fragments and reassemble them into the elements we need. I don't believe, though, that there's any evidence that this can be done with even all the energy of the sun that reaches the surface of the Earth.

      --
      "Most people, I think, don't even know what a rootkit is, so why should they care about it?"
  130. What crap... by rclandrum · · Score: 1

    Never happen. Long before we need the resources of two earths, the population will start dying off in huge numbers as they starve to death. Its a self-limiting system.

  131. That's just the start by Aphoxema · · Score: 1
    --
    "Most people, I think, don't even know what a rootkit is, so why should they care about it?"
  132. How many earths by JTsyo · · Score: 1

    Is the asteroid belts worth?

    1. Re:How many earths by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We can just double Earth's weight and use the asteroid belt to hold its pants up.

  133. Two Planets? Why Not Three? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Do you know what 'humans will need two earths..." really sounds like? It is like Barney Gumble on a Simpsons episode expounding under the early effects of intoxication, "I'm just saying that when we die there's going to be a planet for the French, a planet for the Chinese, and we'll all be a lot happier." Of course, the main part is that we will have to die first.

  134. id10t error by duck_run · · Score: 0

    wtb EV1 back from gm if they hadn't been greedy fucks we wouldn't of been in this discussion of oil in the first place......

  135. Corn? by Antisyzygy · · Score: 1

    Pretty sure we produce enough corn in the US to feed all of us. We may have to resort to peasant diets, but I don't think the world is doomed. Not to mention, once the fish are gone from the sea someone will try to farm them. Its a sad sad thing, but the only way to fix it is to stop breeding, which people seem to not want to do.

    --
    That brings me to an interesting point, / . is just "the ramblings of socially-inept, technology-literate news-mongers".
  136. Later then 2030, but of course by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    1) Will be far later then 2030. For the simple reason technology will likely create efficiency.
    2) Mining off planet resources is doable with current technology, so Earth is not the on source.
    3) A species that does not continuously expand its range will be eliminated by statistical causes, therefore we MUST colonize moon, mars, etc. etc. starting now...if no other reason to get all of our eggs out of one basket, and to diversify further the human family and spread earth ecosystems (our plants and animals get to come along too...have to eat something :0)

    Net-net...get cracking...time for the next age of exploration and colonization...us geeks will (again) save the world :0)

  137. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Like those people who showed up at Copenhagen?

  138. 1960s by snadrus · · Score: 1

    Instead of the 1960s steel desk & chair, particle board & plastic took those over & we went on.
    We will do with scarcity until someone gets rich with a solution. Someone recently found a dirt-cheap replacement 90% of our use for Platinum. Fluorescent lights skirted the extreme Tungsten scarcity so well that most people didn't even know. Future articles should list unsolved problems so sharp minds can get started.

    --
    Science & open-source build trust from peer review. Learn systems you can trust.
  139. not less humans, less poverty by chanio · · Score: 0

    The solution is never going to be less humans (wars & genocide). That story never ends...

    The solution is to really end poverty as soon as possible.
    Then, everybody should expect a better way of living. Thus, simplify their own lives.
    Then, even non violent cultures tend to birth control authomatically.

    End wars and poverty, now!

    --
    Rwe obliged 2 save our future by choosing:O3 hole-greenhouse effect instead of accepting everydays gossip-nonsense chat?
  140. DO NOT CONSUME EARTH RESOURCES by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://scienceblog.com/cms/blog/6696-do-not-consume-earth-resources-just-use-them-generate-energy-16938.html

  141. Well... by martin0641 · · Score: 1

    It's a good thing that the Singularity is near.

  142. Re:Bull - Simple Economics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How much does each oil work get paid in the US? Unions? Oil is cheaper to produce elsewhere.

  143. Additional "earths" won't help by bill_kress · · Score: 1

    Even if something existed as close as the moon but with the resources of the earth, it wouldn't help.

    I don't know the latest figures, but I'd guess you could march the human population of the earth into the sea 10 abreast for ever and the population would still grow due to births outnumbering deaths.

    So you can't lift those people off the planet, and bringing stuff back will only help for a while (if at all, it's not really practical to run up and down the gravity well with any significant amount of stuff.

    Essentially without cutting births down to about .001% of their current rate, we're kinda screwed--and I don't see that happening voluntarily.

    Funny how people come up with observations like this but are so reluctant to follow them to their clear, obvious conclusion (or believe that conclusion when it's presented to them). Humans are funny.

  144. Well... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As long as the Terrains don't kill us, we'll be ok.

  145. Who moderated this Informative? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Come, on go check the box that says "I don't want to moderate any more because I'm too lazy to look up abbreviations and so gullible that I accept things that are posted as jokes as being factual.".

  146. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

    You're right that the executive's time was worth more than the cost of flying a private jet to the Washington show trial they were extorted into attending. That said, they were remarkably careless not to think that their failure to car pool to D.C. would be a leftist publicity bonanza

    --
    Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
  147. Another Earth by lavardo · · Score: 1

    Just don't let our new Earth have too many Windows made by Bill Gates. We will have bugs everywhere!

  148. 2nd earth, pah! by slick7 · · Score: 1

    The people of "this" earth cannot even take care of it, yet, it is said that we need another one? Continuous wars, hatred, racism, greed, a throw away society, and all you can say is, "May I have some more?"
    I say, emphatically, no!
    You, and I mean all of you, having trashed the land, air, seas, the future, deserve what you have. Lie in the bed you made.

    --
    The mind conceives, the body achieves, the spirit manifests.
  149. Tents by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Fine, let us spend the last amount of oil, coal whatever, etc... On clothes, shoes, tents pillows & iphones/ipads. We can also make some bows & arrows so we can chase the deer/pigs. Then we can act just like the Indians did so many years ago. When the earth is in good shape again, we can start making cars and other buildings. Any opinions for additional before-hand purchases?

  150. 2012 is coming by garconcn · · Score: 1

    Don't bother to find another planet, earth men. In the 2012, we will reset yours.

  151. Bah, we are resourceful by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Say wood and steel became too valuable, we'd resort to other materials like stamped earth, or whatever. We tend to not find alternatives until we have to, and life goes on.

  152. Space, the final frontier... by YetAnotherBob · · Score: 1

    Lucky for us there is a large Moon nearby. It has a lot of resources.

    As a geologist I once knew had on his bumper, "EARTH FIRST! we'll mine the rest of the planets later."

    Meanwhile, a little judicious recycling will be helpful. So will more nuclear power plants. Solar, wind and Hydro all have too many environmental impacts.

    If the US has problems with building Nukes, we can always buy them from the French!

    --
    Everybody knows 3 people with my name.
    1. Re:Space, the final frontier... by Fuzzums · · Score: 1

      Personally I'd also like have bread and milk for breakfast.

      --
      Privacy is terrorism.
    2. Re:Space, the final frontier... by YetAnotherBob · · Score: 1

      Bread and milk are relatively easy. anything with sunlight and a growth medium can provide it.

      Fact is that we are using enough wheat and fodder right now making ethanol to feed several hundred million people. we are also burning enough petroleum distilling the ethanol to exceed the heat value of the ethanol.

      Our main problem is bad government decisions.

      Milk just takes cows. Yeah, that means lots of methane (a much more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2), but well, that's life. You can get both bread and milk right now anywhere on earth, if you have the money. Personally, I prefer cheese.

      That should tell you where the problems really are.

      --
      Everybody knows 3 people with my name.
  153. but no... by Fuzzums · · Score: 1

    having 5 or more kids is TOTALLY acceptable.

    --
    Privacy is terrorism.
    1. Re:but no... by apricots · · Score: 1

      I have 6 :P

  154. The solution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    exists, due to the Banach Tarski paradox. We just slice up our Earth, and reassemble it in two identical copies!

  155. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The only reason you are being modded up is because the /. story is over a day old and you have your friends with mod points for todays stories using them here (evidenced). If anyone else was reading this you would be losing in mod points. Not like it matters you finally got the opposing view point modded up because no one will see this anymore. Give up, its very apparent you are peddling propaganda (AKA snake oil), and everyone knows it.
    Do you really want to be that crazy guy holding the end of the world sign on a street corner in 5 years? You are heading straight for it by allowing yourself to be manipulated by The Great Hoax peddlers. You should read a little history because its repeating itself again.

  156. Duh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Everyone should know by now that we are destined to start running out of resources here on Earth1. It is really elementary to observe and deduce that we will not pursue Earth2 until we have depleted Earth1. Wanna know when we'll have 'domed', self-contained colonies on other planets? Easy! When we master the art of building 'domed', self-contained cities here on Earth1.

    1. Re:Duh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Everyone should know by now that we are destined to start running out of resources here on Earth1.

      "Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist." - Kenneth E. Boulding

  157. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Nice Cuccinelli reference there.

    I think you'll find that most scientists are far more motivated by their science than they are by money except as a means of doing science. People who are that intelligent and motivated by money will usually go into business or law.

    AC2PM

  158. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 1

    Hey, thanks for replying. I know when the trolls come out to play that I must be doing something right! I'm afraid that most of my friends are outside the tech community, so I don't have anyone to call on to mod me up. I can give you some tips on how to get modded up.

    1. Log in to post.
      People respect you more if they can put a name to your posts.
    2. Be specific.
      Don't just post general claims like "global warming is wrong". Make a specific claim. If that claim gets refuted, then you may need to adjust your ideas. If you keep posting the same claims after being shown that they are wrong, then it is you who are peddling the propaganda.
    3. Cite your sources.
      The reason my post was modded up, when the grandparent that made the opposite claim to me wasn't, was that I posted evidence of my position. Once again, if your sources are shown to be posting unfounded propaganda, then you should find some new sources to quote. Don't just limit yourself to like-minded websites. You really should look at what the other side says. You never know, some of it may make sense.
    4. Be wary of giving advice that you should really follow yourself.
      You say I read a little history because it is repeating itself. You should read up on the politically motivated backlash against the scientific community on smoking, passive smoking, vaccinations, asbestos and evolution. The strategies that we see today against climate change are carbon copies of what we saw in the past on those other topics.
  159. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 1

    Your argument, attempting as it does to attribute motive, is entirely bogus.

    Really? Let's have a look at that. You have to construct an elaborate scenario to show climate scientist have an ulterior motive. The climate scientist has a political interest? How many scientists do you see in politics?

    The academic institutions have a financial interest? I know people who are researching ethnicity in the arts, which is not going to earn their institution wads of cash. So why is it that when it comes to climate science that the great universities of the world suddenly are assumed to be greedy? They study the climate because they study everything.

    Finally, you guess that the scientists have a consultancy to give them a scientific motive. How many scientists do you know who have a consultancy. Exactly who is paying them, and is it based on them coming up with a particular answer in their work? Doesn't it seem quite likely that they might also get a consultancy with someone else if they disputed the majority view? For example, Ian Plimer is a geologist who disputes climate change. He is on the board of three mining companies, as well as being associated with right-wing think tanks.

    Now let's see how hard is it to claim a motive for the businessman. He has one job, to make money for his shareholders. If his company is forced to stop polluting the world (or even limit selling their product in the case of mining companies) then the company stand to lose millions, if not billions of dollars. There is no ambiguity there with the financial motive to wanting to sweep climate change under the carpet. I don't have to guess at extensive scenarios to explain away the motives of the businessman.

    It seems quite bizarre how you can make up a twisted web of intrigue to show a financial motive for climate scientists and then claim that it is entirely bogus to attribute motive to somehow who has a direct financial relationship to keeping the status quo.

  160. A Better "Earth" Statistic... by pandrijeczko · · Score: 1

    If the entire population of the planet today enjoyed the wealth & prosperity that we enjoy in the USA, Europe & other rich countries, it would require the resources of 2.3 Earths.

    --
    Gentoo Linux - another day, another USE flag.