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Hurricane Irene Prompts Unprecedented Evacuation of NYC
oxide7 links this bit of sobering news, as reported by the International Business Times: "For the first time, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ordered a mandatory evacuation of 300,000 residents of the cities coastal areas as Hurricane Irene barrels up the East Coast. Buses and subways prepared to shut on Saturday as Hurricane Irene approaches as well. All New Jersey rail service will be suspended from noon Saturday, while the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) will institute a shutdown of trains and buses starting at the same time. The suspension will include subways, buses, the Long Island Rail Road, Metro-North Railroad and Access-A-Ride. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey will suspend PATH train service at noon as well. 'This is a mandatory evacuation,' Bloomberg said. 'By five o'clock tomorrow you have to be out. Waiting for the last minute is not a smart thing to do. This is life threatening.'" Good luck to everyone in the storm's path: Irene is big. (Hat tip to Matt Lord.) What, if anything, are you doing to prepare? Having spent more than an hour in worse-than-usual D.C. traffic after Tuesday's earthquake, I shudder to think of leaving New York in a rush. Update: 08/27 06:43 GMT by T : An anonymous reader points out the official evacuation map (PDF), on the swamped NYC server, and suggests "Lets mirror this file anywhere we can ... put it on all social media. Make these systems do what they were supposed to — help us. I'm in Long Island City ~100 yards from the East River in the orange (highest risk) area."
My brother is running a mainframe in northern New Jersey. He's staying.
"The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old......They literally know nothing." - Ben Rhodes
One thing (of many) I am doing that most public officials, the media and emergency management officials always fail to talk about: cleaning and inspecting my firearms.
Earthquakes, hurricanes. It is abundantly clear god has chosen sides in the New York gay marriage debate.
Man I could go for some hurricane rain here in DFW. But seriously stay safe, don't end up a darwin award. Don't be stupid.
Yeah he gets a little carried away with the whole happy dance thing.
William of Ockham had no beard. The most likely explanation is that it was chewed off by squirrels every morning.
So, what happens if someone stays behind? And what about those who are in jail?
(Thankfully I don't live on the East coast.)
cause this place is dead....
I'm in NYC. My plan is to tie some things down on my roof and order some more alcohol.
It's sunny and beautiful in Oregon, but I'm checking the news regularly.
My sister lives on Long Island full time, my brother weekdays; they live on either side of Irene's current projected path through Nassau County. It's odd and disquieting to see the line going through familiar places like Hempstead and Muttontown.
Two cousins live in NYC, one far enough south in Manhattan to be in the "B" Zone.
Batten down the hatches, folks. Don't do anything stupid.
And remember: Creamed Eels, Wadded Beef and Corn Nog don't keep without refrigeration!
Isn't Bush sending troops to rescue the poor black people of New Orleans from certain death? He's a redneck Texas cowboy racist is why!
Wait! It's 2011? And this is New York and Bush is gone?
Never mind........past the hummus and pita chips.
"The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old......They literally know nothing." - Ben Rhodes
Title says it all. Cat-2.
It has a slim chance of being a hurricane still when it gets to New York.
It has a slightly better chance of 50 knot wind-speeds by then.
And it has a decent chance of being a weak tropical storm.
In other words, not even worth evacuating for....
For reference, I live in the Big Easy - I've sat out Cat-2 storms before, more than once.
But from the looks of it, this storm is being blown all out of proportion....
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
We wish you well! Courage!
300,000 people and the 'affected areas' are a relatively small percentage of New York City. The vast majority of New Yorkers are doing what we normally do when doom is predicted - snark, ignore, and stock up on liquor and cigarettes.
Seriously, though, there's no way New York City itself could be evacuated without something on the scale of Dunkirk. The thought of 8 million people trying to escape over a mere 4 or 5 Interstate-class roads makes a lot of us laugh at the idea of the 'go bag' that the authorities and preparedness obsessives keep talking about. If anything happened that was big enough to force a major evac on NYC, we'd be going nowhere so fast due to traffic we'd end up using all three changes of clothes just sitting in cars or in train stations or airports. So unless the 'crisis' is fairly personal, I plan on having lots of time to pack whatever's needed - or to make sure I have the requisite amount of booze and books to see me through the forting up!
KEEP CALM
AND
CARRY ON
A hero is someone who knows when to run away. I am a hero. -Trent the Uncatchable
... it's only supposed to be a category 1 by the time it reaches land, and down to tropical storm strength by the time it reached New York. When I lived in Florida, we didn't even lower the awnings for a cat 1.
After this, and the hullabaloo over that 5.9 earthquake (I live in California now, and we laughed at the big deal they made out of it.), I think the east coast are being a massive bunch of drama queens.
Imagine all the people...
I'm writing this from the foot of the Brooklyn Bridge, right near the edge of the evacuation zone 'C'. A good portion of the people here in the neighborhood of Dumbo near the water have either followed mandatory evacuation or have opted to leave on their own . Nearby low-lying Fulton Ferry and the much better situated Brooklyn Heights are ready to ride the storm out.
I also happen to have the weekend on-call network emergency duty for a group of offices here in the neighborhood (trade into it weeks ago. Oops). We ran through a checklist today, including testing backup generators and going over contingency plans for flooding. In front of me is a cell phone, radio and keys to everything. Meanwhile, the city is doing a massive amount of prep work on its own. Talked to a number of friends and neighbors today and everyone who will be here is hunkered down.
This is my first hurricane. Not sure how this is going to turn out, but everyone here is ready.
Bring it Irene.
Shameless plug for my photos on Flickr
When you need him?
"The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old......They literally know nothing." - Ben Rhodes
> Overreact to distant disasters week?
Only a very small percentage of anything is getting evacuated.
Florida must be making fun of us the same way that Californians were making fun of us earlier this week. I don't care, we got better cheesesteaks than you. Whiz, wit. Represent.
sysadmins and parents of newborns get the same amount of sleep.
This is going to be the first sustained wind even for most areas north of NC. MANY dead and weak branches and trees will be knocked down by Irene. I suspect a mess of power lines are gonna be knocked down. I doubt anyone is in grave peril here (it's too perilous!). But millions of folks will spend the weekend and longer without power. Trust a bayou dweller; get the stinky stuff out'cha freezer and fridge. After 3 days it gets nasty. Good luck.
Sig Registration Form 34c_766(a) submitted to Ministry of Signature Management. Approval pending.
Because the storm is so massive, there is expected to be a storm surge about one category higher than the storm actually arrives at.
One analysis I read rated the chances of topping the manhattan flood wall at 20%. So not huge, but good enough odds that it warrants not killing people if you guess wrong.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
What Category the storm is when it hits NYC is NOT the big issue. Wind damage is not what they are worried about. The size of the storm surge is the issue. NYC has an enormous amount of underground infrastructure. If water starts spilling into the subway system in quantity, the results would be catastrophic. See Chicago Flood, multiply by 1000.
"To those who are overly cautious, everything is impossible. "
Here's a photo of the devastation resulting from Tuesday's earthquake in Washington DC
"the cities coastal areas"
This is what journalism has come to. Writers who can't fucking write.
I'm still scared-- stockpiling on water and going to bunker down in my basement, as the projected path of the 'cane brings the eye with a near-direct hit over my residence. Just gotta tough it out and hope they can restore power in a reasonable period of time and damage to life and proprety is minimal.
I know what you mean; I'm in the same boat. I plan to stay safe in the basement until the worst of this storm is over. Of course it's not likely to help much, since I'm in Iowa. Still, better safe than sorry, right?
Seriously though, I don't mean to make light of your predicament, and here's hoping the thing dissipates at least some before pounding the city.
Today is red jello day - all workers must eat all of their red jello. Failure to comply will result in five demerits.
Meh. Irene's already been downgraded to a cat 2.
Yesterday, forecasts said it would be a cat 3 right now, and still be a cat 3 tomorrow. Current forecasts show it a cat 2 now, a cat 1 tomorrow, and a Tropical Storm when it hits Long Island.
Tempest in a teapot, if you ask me.
"The Days of Prayer for Rain in the State of Texas refers to a designated three-day period from Friday, April 22, 2011, to Sunday, April 24, 2011, during which Texas governor Rick Perry asked that Texans pray for "the healing of our land [Texas]" and for an end to the drought."
You know, Texas. Pious, tea bagging Red State. No gays allowed.
"The drought became worse after the Days of Prayer. While only 15-17% of the state was undergoing exceptional drought during the Days of Prayer, the percentage grew to 50% a month later, and by late June, more than 70% of the state was experiencing exceptional drought conditions, a level at which it has stayed up to August 18, 2011."
How you like them apples?
Lil' Thindime, lilting a lacrimose lament, krashes the kwaint konfines of Kokonino Kounty
I was working in World Trade Center #1, on the 95th floor, during the nor'easter of 1992, which if I recall was the remains of a hurricane. It was quite an intense experience; we had the space-saving "rolling file cabinets" that were rolling back and forth on their own, with one finally derailing and spilling files onto the floor (guess who had the job of cleaning it up). Bathroom stall doors were opening and closing by themselves, you could hear a definite creaking from inside the walls, and they were always shutting down the express elevator due to flex.
The thing that was really wild, though, and sadly not to be seen again, was looking out the window and being able to easily make out the other tower swaying as well. I had to keep telling myself "the buildings are designed for this...it's okay!" until it was time to go home.
I can't speak for most. I can speak for the ten or twelve of us who compared notes at work today over the snark. Sure, we're being flip. But there's no sense being stupid. Things I'm doing which we all thought seemed like a good plan:
1) Remembering that the winds aren't a big deal.
2) Being happy I live in a high spot, so rather than evacuating:
3) Stockpiling water (1-liter thermoplastic seltzer bottles ftw)
4) Freezing some of those (thermal inertia ftw if we lose power, plus, tasty cold water)
5) Making sure we have a week of food in the house for peeps *and* cats (check, I usually do, could prob. go 2 on what we have)
6) Making sure I have cash in the house (ATMs might die if net/power goes)
7) Making sure I have candles and lighters/matches
8) Making sure I have adequate whisky!
DONE.
A hero is someone who knows when to run away. I am a hero. -Trent the Uncatchable
Large storm? It will be a tropical storm by the time it gets there, assuming it doesn't turn away. High probability of being killed? By what, exactly?
Forcing people to evacuate for something that doesn't even qualify as alarming in most of the country is indeed a nanny state. But I can see you're so afraid of your own shadow, you don't mind armed men forcing people into the streets. There are counties you can go to where that is the norm, why don't you try them on for size.
Great Intellect...
I blame those Keep Austin Weird "people".
My office is in evacuation zone 'a' about a block from the beach on Staten Island. Shut down my PCs and put them on my desk just in case the place floods...
I'm thinking this is likely going to be just a normal storm by the time it hits us, nothing major, some downed trees and powerlines. Kind of like what happened during the huge blizzards we had this past winter except without all the ice and snow. I'm moving my car away from under the trees so they don't crash on it but other than that I'm not to concerned.
Ha! Karma!
oh wait ...
What changed under Obama? Nothing Good
The problem will be the storm surge in the subway tunnels flooding them, and a lot of the power conduits. That will take a long time to drain and repair. And Manhattan without power for a week? Not someplace I want to be...
So I did what I normally do on a Friday: I cut out of town at 2:00 pm to drive back to the WNY area for the weekend. However, instead of taking my usual 86 / 17 route, which was nuts with traffic, I heard, I drove back roads following the upper Delaware scenic bypass and enjoyed the quiet, if slightly longer drive.
I do hope my apartment is still standing when I head back. My office building - I can take it or leave it...
I have a strong case of it, and the storm isn't supposed to hit here (Maryland) until Sunday at dawn. Thus far, I've been treated to:
1) CNN showing the idiots surfing at Wrightsville Beach, NC. Why encourage it?
2) An interview of some guy from the Discovery Channel with a supposedly hurricane-proof automobile.
3) An ever increasing national media frenzy replete with dramatic, spooky music and lots of interviews with people whose opinions don't count for much.
4) As the storm has decreased in power (so they can't rave about how Katrina-like it is), they've begun speculating about what the poor, benighted, ignorant citizens of New York will actually DO if they're stuck in their apartments for two or three days.
5) An absolutely jaw-dropping interview with Candidate Ron Paul who opines that we should go back to the way hurricanes were handled in 1900. He hails from Galveston, where the most destructive hurricane ever recorded happened in 1900. In other words, he wants the states to help out with funeral pyres so affected cities can burn their dead without Federal intervention.
Since I live in an area that gets the backlash of at least one good hurricane a year, here's what I've done to (gasp) protect myself:
1) Listened to the governor and the state emergency people, as well as the local weather forecasts.
2) Bought gas and hit the ATM.
3) Laid in a good supply of food and snacks that don't need to be cooked--sandwich materials, fruit, cheese, cookies. Likewise laid in a bit of beer. And dry dog food for the dog. Bottled water for self and dog.
4) Frozen up the picnic ice to add to the freezer if the electricity goes out.
5) Made a mental note to charge everything up--laptop, Kindle, iPhone.
6) Checked the flashlights and re-supplied on candles. The kind that Jewish people burn as memorials (that come in little glass jars) are available at grocery stores and make great, safe emergency candles. Blown the dust off the transistor radio and re-supplied it with fresh batteries.
7) Gotten out some lightweight cotton clothes because if the power goes out, it will be hot, unbearably humid, and damp.
8) Put my wellies by the front door.
The practice of people from different regions comparing their various disasters is ludicrous. If you don't think so, try listening to somebody from North Dakota comparing their flood this year to Katrina. It's not worth bothering with unless you happen to work in emergency services. People begin to sound like idiots after a very short time.
Tomorrow night, I'll probably go to bed. I'll be awakened by the storm sometime in the middle of the night, at which point I'll lie there and think about Nature's power and all that maudlin crap. Then, if it sounds bad, I'll get up and fill the bathtub with water (so I can flush), make sure the dog is OK, and curl up with a book until the lights go out--at which point I'll switch to my Kindle.
The only thing I can't do is persuade the dog that it's OK to pee and crap on some newspaper. He's going to be tying himself in knots.
"Here's what's happening. You're starting to drive like your Dad..." - Red Green
Never mind the US dollar compared to AUD we have free stuff in aisles 1 through 34th street
http://www.awfullybigmoustache.com
After 9/11, emergency flood gates were supposed to be installed in the NYC subway system. Water from fire hoses alone was enough to eventually completely flood the PATH tunnels to New Jersey. If the cement box that kept the Hudson River from pouring into the site had cracked open, the subway system would have flooded up to midtown. As of late 2010, some flood gates were being installed.
The Pennsylvania Railroad tunnels to New Jersey already had flood gates (the PRR built to last), but they'd been neglected and weren't working. Amtrak has since fixed them.
I'm sure the mayor didn't wait any longer then he had to. Hurricane's are erratic. If you're going to evacuate Manhattan you'd better be pretty sure the hurricane's actually going to hit.
We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
the looters will get nice, clean firearms after they shoot your eejit head off.
Don't let a crisis go to waste. Lots of money to be made!
The states in Irene's path don't build for hurricanes as Florida does. So, in Florida, a cat 2 is something you sleep through, in New York, it can cause some damage.
OTOH, I do agree. Tempest in a teapot. Damage will be severely localized, mostly right next to the shore, particularly at the point it makes landfall. Of course, that is where all of the reporters will put their cameras.
The magic required for a switching power supply to like variable frequencies is active PFC. When you have an active PFC, the power supply becomes voltage and frequency agnostic over quite a large range (usually even larger than stated).
This mostly means newer power supplies. They have become more common since the EU has been requiring them. As you noted, essential all computer power supplies are active PFC these days and you find many of the wall wart/line lump adapters are that come with good electronics.
Those should be happy with pretty much anything. Low voltage, high voltage, wrong current, non-sine wave, doesn't much matter to them they should work with it all.
Did anyone else notice the two large circular cloud formations out over the central and western Gulf of Mexico visible in the summary link "Irene is Big"?
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_Irene.html
Look closely at the image linked--there are two almost perfect circles of forming cloud, as well as a few smaller ones near the western-most circle.
I've never seen clouds form like that. The one in the central Gulf almost seems to defy wind flow, as evidenced by the two "streaked" formations that go right over it. Perhaps the difference is simply altitude.
My wife's first random guess was oil-booms (oil on the surface altering reflection rates and water-surface temps). Anyone else?
Oh, and hey, there's a big hurricane headed toward you guys...
I'm in Zone A in Brooklyn, part of the mandatory evacuation area. I live in a basement apartment that is sure to be flooded. I moved everything I couldn't live without out to a friend's today and am stacking everything else 2-3 feet above the floor just in case.
I suppose more of you would be satisfied if it were a Cat-2 or Cat-3 when it hits NYC, somehow 70mph winds with 15-20 inches of rain and a 10-15 foot swell isn't enough for you. The economic hit of suspending the city for 2 days isn't enough for you. Do you want a Katrina disaster? I don't get it.
Anyways, fuck you, back to packing for me.
I have uploaded the PDF, to a seperate URL. Push it around social networks if you live in New York. If the original server goes down, people can use this one. Good luck all! http://coloniesonline.co.uk/hurricane_map_english.pdf
I'm no scientist either, but I'm fairly certain both the epicenter of said earthquake, and the projected landfall of Hurricane Irene, are both in the United States.
"I'm still scared-- stockpiling on water and going to bunker down in my basement..."
Dude. Flood. Basement. Dig?
It's harming natural selection
No, it's presumption of unpreparedness and naivety. The people who want to stick around believe they are knowledgeable about the risks and have mitigated them, while the government telling them to leave wants to avoid sending out emergency responders in case the people are wrong (in legitimate concern for emergency responders' safety).
Can you build a hurricane proof home? never dealt with hurricanes but in AR we get twisters all the time and if one of those bastards hits your place unless your ass is in an old Titan II missile silo your shit be pretty well fucked. The one that struck Vilonia even ripped up the entire street!
So I can see you building a place that can take 60MPH winds but at 100MPH+ I just don't see how one could do it without making the thing look like a bomb shelter, and from the pics I've seen of FLA those houses sure don't look like bomb shelters.
As for the people of NYC good luck, hope you manage to keep the looting to a minimum.It never fails to amaze me, the sheer stupidity of criminals who will risk everything for a widescreen, fucking idiots. We usually have to call out the guard after a twister because it doesn't matter that there are power lines snapping and trees and homes that could fall over if you look at them funny, stupid fucking criminals will be out there trying to snatch a widescreen.
ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
Wrong. The NHC badly needs to come up with a tiered rating system for severe weather. The simple, cut-and-dried Category 1-5 scale doesn't cut it and desperately needs to be changed.
In real life, the size of a storm (Irene is HUGE), how fast it's moving (wildcard, we're not sure yet) and the tide levels at the time of landfall (good chance that they'll be at high tide) are all key factors. Even if Irene has dropped to tropical depression status by the time it hits Long Island, NY, it could still cause major destruction and loss of life, because it's going to piss megatons of rain, hour after hour, on an area that's not used to that kind of precipitation.
A large tropical storm, especially if it hits an unprepared area, can cause more chaos than a major hurricane that hits an area that's used to it.
Yes, the news media needs to quit being so sensational, and there's no doubt that they overhyped Irene. But speaking as someone who's made it through several hurricanes, they're no fun. At all. When I was living in NC, Fran followed I-95 up through Raleigh. We had hurricane-force gusts where I lived (to the west of Fayetteville/Ft. Bragg), but we still lost power for about a week, and there was significant damage all over the area. One of my friends was very nearly killed when he was blown dozens of feet through his back yard.
And remember, all of this was well away from the "center" or "eye" of the hurricane.
Today's joke: I moved to Alabama, in part, to get away from hurricanes. Not only have I -- thus far -- had to endure Ivan and Katrina, the big fun here is tornadoes, as witness the horrible storms of April 27th. And this makes the point, too, about focusing on intensities, instead of all conditions ... the tornado that hit our neighborhood the morning of April 27th was "only" a little F1 or F2, and in fact, was dissipating by the time it passed over us. It still ripped my neighbor's house, two doors up, off the foundation. It was a total loss. Thank God, no one in our little neighborhood was hurt (the neighbors in question were on vacation at the time), but trust me, there's nothing quite like waking up to the sound of a freight train and the whole house shaking. :)
Yes, the news media sensationalizes these things. Yes, they focus entirely too much on simple category numbers. And yes, governments tend to overreact, too, but part of that is "CYA" (or "CTA," I guess). Strong storms are unpredictable, and even when they're dissipating, you can get terrible effects in localized areas. There's no way to predict precisely where these effects will occur. Safer just to tell people to get out of town for a few days.
But don't dismiss Irene just because she's "only" a category 1 or a strong tropical storm as she moves up the East coast. Unless she stays well off shore, you're going to be surprised at the damage. Speaking from experience.
Cogito, igitur comedam pizza.
lol.. seriously? by the time it gets up here it'll be a cat 1 or just a storm. hardly worth getting upset.
Id say that it looks like normal weather during a drought season.
Of course religious people will see everything except the April part, where "spring showers...". But whatever... whatever.
Is it not something like 120mph winds, though? Why are they causing this much disruption?
Here in Scotland we call that January...
Somewhere I read, that an F3 tornado can blow even a well-anchored house from its foundations.
I guess, when your house needs an anchor, you're doing it wrong.
Are you buying your water or just filling containers with what comes out of the tap?
Jumpstart the tartan drive.
Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season is Like Christmas
10. Decorating the house (boarding up windows). ... and in large quantities.
9. Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since last season (camping gear, flashlights).
8. Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
7. Regular TV shows pre-empted for "specials".
6. Family coming to stay with you.
5. Family and friends from out-of-state calling.
4. Buying food you don't normally buy
3. Days off from work.
2. Candles.
1 And the number one reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas...At some point you know you're going to have a tree in your house!
What you're saying is certainly true, but keep one thing in mind... they're shutting down the trains in New York (subway and metro north) on Saturday for the duration of the event. The amount of people that use mass transit dwarfs that of DC. The fact that it's closed is going to have a huge impact on the traffic,
Who cares. There's no point being a corpse on a pile of cool stuff if there are other options.
I'm watching this from the other side of the world in a place that gets big cyclones and at least this time I'm not getting the "don't these people know what's coming?" feeling as I watched the leadup to Katrina and the horrible aftermath. People in authority are taking it seriously instead of turning down offers of extra trains or leaving hundreds of buses behind.
We live in the industrial capital of the world, yet people who live in grass huts tremble less than we do at a storm? Caribbean and South Pacific residents get pounded year in and year out by storms far more destructive, but we are the ones running scared? It will rain. It will flood, Power will be lost. Trees will fall. And through it all, tomorrow will still come. In a few days, our lives will be restored. We will have had to suffer through a day or 2 of peanut butter and jelly, rather than the steak that was ruined. We will miss a tv show. Oh the humanity!!!! Put on your big boy pants, and grow up. Stop letting the government drive you further into fear, through the media, which allows them to gain more control over you. If you get scared, pee your pants if you must. Then change them, and get back to being a big boy. We have become a nation of whiny bitches, incapable of dealing with anything outside the limits of the norm. If something happens in your neighborhood, go out and help make it better. If a neighbor needs help, stop worrying about yourself, and get out there and help. Have to old lady who lives alone over, to ride out the storm with people who care. There is strength in numbers. A group is less likely to be scared. And when it is over, learn to be nice to your neighbors.
It is not something like 120mph winds. It's less than that now, and should drop down to the 50 mph range by the time it gets to New York, if it's even still a tropical weather event by then (small chance it'll dissipate completely before New York, larger chance of a weak tropical storm).
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
Yah, when we went through Katrina, it was waaaay different. We only ordered a mandatory evacuation of the City, instead of a mandatory evacuation of low-lying areas.
Didn't know that, did you? Yes, we executed our standard mandatory evacuation plan a couple days before Katrina hit. Worked exactly as designed, in that pretty much anyone who wanted to evacuate did.
Note that the people who remained didn't remain because they had nowhere to go and no way to get there. They didn't evacuate because, for the most part, they remembered Betsy, and Katrina was a baby compared to Betsy.
Note also that the majority of the Katrina damage in N'Awlins was a result of a levee breach. Unpredicatable, and unpredicted. Even worse, in the aftermath of Katrina, the authorities prevented people from returning to their homes in the area for a couple months. Much of the damage to individual houses would have been vastly reduced if people had been on hand as the floodwaters receded to clean things up, rather than leaving entire neighborhoods to (literally) rot for a month or two....
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
oh and according to one jewish minister it's the homosexuals fault too.
Yeah I'm not looking forward to commuting next week. Luckily my employer is very liberal about telecommuting.
William of Ockham had no beard. The most likely explanation is that it was chewed off by squirrels every morning.
hmm those pesky maintained levees braking in unpredictable ways under lower loads than they have seen in the past...
ohh wait, you mean no one wanted to fund the fixing of a critical piece of infrastructure? So pay to maintain/fix shit and things will be much better.
All of the above was encrypted with a Quad ROT-13 method. Unauthorized decryption is in violation of the DMCA.
Some interesting articles on the how and why NY and surounding areas are at risk.
Google earth rendering of the possible flooding (4.3m storm surge for a cat 2 hurricane)
The one thing that the media and this model does not take into account is the underground infrastructure factor which could extend the flooding (underground) up to 2 miles further from the edge of the on land storm surge (the model only shows above ground).
http://seaandskyny.com/2011/02/14/the-nyc-storm-surge-threat/
http://seaandskyny.com/2011/02/09/the-scientific-significance-of-the-only-hurricane-ever-to-directly-hit-nyc/
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/080730175524.htm
Sure. There are freak effects that are impossible to predict. Like I said, the little tornado that hit our neighborhood was dissipating (the official NWS track actually shows it dying out approximately 1/4-1/2 mile before hitting our street), but we had considerable damage -- mostly roofs. But a freak wind must have hit my neighbor's house. Another neighbor said he saw a little funnel whip right into the house, knock it back about 10 feet, then head over the railroad tracks behind it, shattering a bunch of little pine trees. After that, it truly dissipated and went away. No further damage.
The only safe place to be when an F4 or F5 hits is somewhere else. :) Second best is a deep, strong shelter
Cogito, igitur comedam pizza.
There is a bit of a difference between a hurricane and a tornado. Tornadoes tend to have very very strong updrafts in the middle, and this is what causes much of the damage. Even if you try to anchor the roof down to the building, you are talking a lot of force when it goes over your home. In both cases there is a lot of debris flying through the air.
Just to compare the EF and Category scales a bit. EF0 65-85 MPH, Cat1 74-94 Fairly similar, but go to the top of the scale, EF5 >200 MPH, and Cat 5 >155MPH, there is a bit of a difference there.
Earthen dome homes would survive the winds great, but no so much the flooding/storm surge.
All of the above was encrypted with a Quad ROT-13 method. Unauthorized decryption is in violation of the DMCA.
New Orleans wasn't the only thing damaged by Katrina. Yes, New Orleans seemed to have survived the initial storm pretty well, but there were other areas around it -- up to and included the Gulf Coast of Mississippi -- that were nearly wiped out. The first day after the storm, in fact, the News Vultures had most of their cameras and Yakking Heads in outlying areas, and were planning to leave. It was only after the levees broke that they hauled back into N'Awlins.
Cogito, igitur comedam pizza.
Ditto the parent. NYC Server still sluggish. I've added a mirror: http://hickoryservices.com/sites/default/upload/hurricane_map_english.pdf
Won't digging make it worse?
Your PC makes the BEST presentation layer for admiring the satellite data, and it's free. Weather reports are free too, but are too quick, have weathermen covering the data, and can't be rotated to explorer at your leisure --you can even zoom into your local streets and look up to review cloud appearance from the ground.
Fire up Google Earth and look at the radar / cloud pictures (probably close to real-time). Just tick the Weather "layer" and you can select which sublayers to enable, and even take JPEGs.
Or a properly constructed building like St. Johns Hospital. That and several other large buildings have been struck by F5 tornadoes, without major structural damage and no wind-related fatalities. (5 patients on ventilators suffocated in St. Johns when the power cut out and emergency generators failed as well.) All that despite the fact that such large structures are much more vulnerable and exposed to wind than smaller structures.
Americans are pretending that tornadoes are an act of a vengeful god or something, and there is no use to do anything about them anyway. But in fact, the reason why you see endless rows of houses reduced to slaps of concrete by tornadoes - as most recently in Joplin - is lousy and inappropriate building standards first and foremost.
If you are building a house in an area that is very well known to be tornado-prone, which cannot structurally survive a tornado, you've only got yourself to blame when a slap of concrete is all that is left after one of them strikes.
I sincerely apologize should that comment hit too close to home.
It's not New York. It's DC. It's a sign somebody is unhappy with what's going on there.
New York and the rest of the eastern seaboard is just collateral damage.
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
in the last 10 years. The hysteria that the "News" is whipping up is much more dangerous than a little wind and rain.
We live in a neighborhood in Brooklyn that is higher than the top of the Statue of Liberty, and yet the mouth-breathers were still panicking and fighting over bottled water in the supermarket. Can Fox News, CNN, and the others be held criminally liable for inciting to riot, because that's exactly what they're doing.
Here's a thought: one of the feared aspects of a hurricane is lots of rain, which conveniently means if you want fresh water you can put a pot out your window and catch yourself some. And as far as food goes, most Americans are so fat they could live on their paunches for at least a month before they need to eat again.
In short, it's. Going. To. Be. OK. Really.
Do what you can, with what you have, where you are.
You weren't around for the blackout of '03 then I guess. It's no big deal unless you absolutely need refrigeration. But then that prompts all of the restaurants to cook and practically give away all of their food. It's better than letting it go to waste.
Almost every large building has and will be running on backup generators. After the numerous generator critical failures during '03, it shouldn't be an issue anymore for anyone. Last time was bad because a lot of generators had been sitting around rusting for years without any use. For many such places, there were enough generators that failed to make it a pretty close call. This time, you won't have electricity to run your computer or AC, but your building's hallways, and any other bit of critical infrastructure, will.
The biggest issue is water, which will only have enough pressure to reach around the 4th and 5th floors of most buildings. That's why people buy cases of bottled water and fill their tubs in advance. It's probably the most crucial thing. Though if you ask, people will help you fill up your buckets from their faucet on the first or second floor.
The other major problem is powering back on. Last time, it had to be done in zones over several days. That was a pain. But most outer boroughs experience enough power loss enough times a year for it to be nothing more than a minor inconvenience. At least it's not the middle of a 100+ heat wave. That's when places usually suffer power loss.
All in all, it can be a fairly pleasant experience.
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
In Florida, homes are theoretically built to survive up to category 3 storms. After that, it's a question of how far you are from the shore, and how far you are from the eye of the storm, and whether or not there was any non-approved construction. Even newer trailer homes are built to survive hurricanes. The eye-wall has the most intense winds, which is followed by an eerie calm for a few hours, followed by some more of the most intense winds. Wind speed dies off rapidly as you get farther away from the eye-wall.
As far as building techniques are concerned, the main thing is windows are required to be "hurricane windows", meaning that they will stop a 10-foot long, 15-pound, wooden 2x4 traveling at 100 miles flying through the air (they break in the process), and have a film on them so that when they break, they don't shatter into small sharpened projectiles. Roofs also have some additional structural support so that they don't get pulled off. (Simpson Ties) And there are some things regarding elevation above sea level.
It's not the wind, it's the water. Cf. Katrina in Mississippi; the storm winds weren't that bad, but they had been blowing for a long time and piled water up so that there was a 30-foot storm surge.
Meanwhile, California did nothing except impose water restrictions. Result? A near record Sierra snowfall. Reservoirs would be filled to the brim here, except that some of them are kept below capacity because the dams that hold them back are considered to be below seismic standards.
For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
There was plenty of money to maintain it. It's just that Louisiana isn't exactly known for having low corruption levels in government.
Yeah, it's been a while since I'd seen that delicious copypasta.
This St. John's Hospital? Yeah, that's structurally intact, but most of the windows are gone and I imagine a lot of the stuff inside isn't much better. Theoretically, you could have building codes that require people to build their homes with foot-thick pillars of concrete and rebar, but you're going to get a lot of pushback about the cost and the ugliness, and the tornadoes are still going to trash them.
You don't need that thick walls or any pillars for small houses - because you have very different forces acting on those than on high-rise buildings. Some reasonable walls made of reinforced concrete won't get blown away and flattened - no matter what tornado they are facing (they'll also survive when hit by a tree, if it's not absurdly large - but those should not be allowed in such areas anyway).
Sure, depending on the type of building the roof will be gone and you may have a lot of water coming in through the windows, but that's easy to repair. You wouldn't have hundreds of dead people, the damage would be much easier to repair and when you're not trying to survive a tornado the concrete walls help a lot with both insulation and temperature-buffering to keep rooms cool without air-conditioning at least for part of the day. All this can be pre-fabbed and the main cost of a house is in real-estate anyway - so it's not about cost, it's about refusing to prepare for the local weather (and, often enough, blaming the consequences on climate change).
what the hell?
But whatever... whatever.
Yeah. Name checking The Wrath Of God is a rusted, tired, cherry-picking exercise that cuts both ways.
For every self-righteous Sodom and Gomorrah invocation, right wing moralists (FWIW, "moralist" and "moral" are not the same thing) miraculously forget that:
Less than two weeks after LA and San Diego tilted the infamous recall election towards a republican governator, the worst forest fires in SoCal history occurred.
Four hurricanes devastated Florida in 2004, when the state tilted yet another election towards a certain New England cowboy.
Space shuttle Columbia disintegrated over Texas, right over the ranch of some New England cowboy, in fact.
The list of "omens" and "portents" cutting in every single direction goes on ad nauseam.
This type of argument gained particular traction and nationwide dissemination with Falwell and Robertson. Using their own twisted sensibility, and since the East Coast earthquake was epicentered in Richmond VA, one could say the earth cracked open a bit to rapture Falwell's corpse downward.
See? It can just go on and on...
Lil' Thindime, lilting a lacrimose lament, krashes the kwaint konfines of Kokonino Kounty
If you're like me and far enough from it so you're only forecast is rain & storm, you should still get provisions for a few days. I can live without power and survive even though it's going to be hot, humid and I have a newborn in the house.
The US grid is simply not prepared to handle several sudden cuts from both power sources and power drains. NYC is a big power drain and has a few power sources as well.
You may be out of the way from the natural forces but the forces of forgotten human greed extend well beyond it.
Custom electronics and digital signage for your business: www.evcircuits.com
The problem will be the storm surge in the subway tunnels flooding them, and a lot of the power conduits. That will take a long time to drain and repair. And Manhattan without power for a week? Not someplace I want to be...
Probably equivalent to the 2003 Northeast US blackout, which lasted for 36-48 hours in most areas.
That was completely unexpected, this will have allowed ConEd and LIPA to plan for it to at least some degree.
(Planning here for 24-72h without power.)
Wolde you bothe eate your cake, and have your cake?
LOL. A direct hit by a category 1 hurricane in South Florida is like a snow day in upstate New York. We get up, look outside, and agonize about whether we're going to look silly for staying home from work if it doesn't get at least a little bit worse.
The biggest problem with "Tornado Alley" is the fact that houses there are built like shit. They're hot-glued matchsticks with stapled-on waferboard. I think Florida *trailers* have more stringent building standards than most of the midwest. If Kansas adopted Dade County building codes, people there would barely notice F1 and F2 tornadoes anymore. If you want proof, look at Florida. We have more tornadoes per square mile per year than any state in the country. The difference is, a F1 or F2 tornado that strikes HERE makes a bigger impact on Youtube & Twitter than it does to actual buildings, because a small tornado is basically 10 seconds of a real hurricane hitting a building that by law has to be designed to survive a direct hit by a category 3 hurricane without major damage to its interior.
A F5 tornado is nothing to sneer at, ever... but if a F5 tornado hit a neighborhood built to post-Andrew "Florida" standards, you'd have lots of badly-damaged homes. If the same tornado hit a neighborhood built to "Kansas" standards, you'd be left with a grassy field and holes where the basements used to be.
> Can you build a hurricane proof home?
Yes. Build the walls and roof from reinforced concrete using ICF, use impact-glass windows rated for large missiles, then put shutters over the windows anyway. Put concrete walls between the garage and interior of your house, and isolate the attic space above the garage from the rest of your house. The idea is to ensure that if/when the garage door gets blown in, the wind can't get to the rest of your house.
^^^ Just to add to that... here are some pics of a hurricane-proof house in Hawaii being constructed with a reinforced-concrete hip roof (12-in-4 pitch, just like most wood roofs in Florida). Totally and completely normal-looking, but nothing short of a nuclear bomb is going to make a dent in it:
http://www.wdcicf.com/Makiki-Home/Makiki-Home15.htm
Another reinforced concrete hip roof (3 pics -- ICF foam, rebar placed, concrete poured):
http://www.quadlock.com/images/decking/Pitched_ICF_Roof_01.jpg
http://www.quadlock.com/images/decking/Pitched_ICF_Roof_02.jpg
http://www.quadlock.com/images/decking/Pitched_ICF_Roof_03.jpg
At the more affordable end of the spectrum, if you want the benefits of a concrete roof, but can't afford to go all the way, as long as you can keep the spans between loadbearing walls down to something sane & reasonable (say, around 18-24 feet), it's fairly affordable to build the house with a cast in place reinforced concrete attic floor, then simply build a conventional wood roof atop the parapet wall surrounding it (the same way you'd build it atop the tie beams in conventional Florida construction). The wood roof might get shredded by a hurricane, but the concrete deck below will keep the rest of your house intact.
All that matters is how hard it hits me. (That sounds mean, I know, but it's true. When it comes to damage to my home, it only matters how hard Irene hits... my home. Not whether or not it hits x00 miles away too.)
Err, no. You also care what happens to everyone else -- or, at least, you will. For just one trivial example, eventually you'll need to go out for supplies. How far will you have to go to find a gasoline station with gasoline -- and with electricity to pump it? When Hurricane Wilma hit south Florida in 2005, a metropolitan area of more than three million people was suddenly in that situation, and the social structure almost broke down as people discovered that the nearest gasoline was two or three counties away. So was fresh water, food, prescription medicines, roofing materials, replacement windows, cell phone coverage, and everything else people needed to get back on their feet.
In short, you care "whether or not it hits x00 miles away too," because you will depend on your neighbors outside the damage area to help you recover from the storm.
Bring loose stuff inside, keep a disaster kit, sure. But don't spread that old saw about taping your windows. Taping your windows does absolutely nothing except waste your time: The tape doesn't keep the window from breaking when the 100 mph flying debris hits it, and the broken glass quickly shreds the tape.
Use plywood, or aluminum hurricane shutters, instead.
Texas. Pious, tea bagging Red State. No gays allowed.
You've obviously never been to Austin. Check out 4th Street around 2am. You'll think you've been magically (and fabulously!) transported to The Castro in SF.
"Liechtenstein is the world's largest producer of sausage casings, potassium storage units, and false teeth."
slashcrap = stagparty
I am not the real Michael Kristopeit.
There is a difference?
Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
It's not New York. It's DC. It's a sign somebody is unhappy with what's going on there.
New York and the rest of the eastern seaboard is just collateral damage.
Silly boy when you say "somebody is unhappy" it implies that most are happy,yet the reality is everybody is unhappy with whats going on in DC, in fact the word unhappy is probably sugar-coating the real sentiment. Now if by somebody is unhappy you mean God is unhappy, then he should just take on of the big rocks out there in space and drop it smack dab on the boil on the ass of America and be done with it.
Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
Well since flooding is the major concern, being in the basement might not be the optimum place for safety. Being in an 8 foot deep basement with a blocked exit would really suck when the storm surge 12 feet.
Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
Ive seen a brick veneered, concrete building that had a large trash dumpster thrown through the third story wall, try and engineer for events like that!
Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
Don't build in a flood plain, then?
It's not a flood plain; it's a coastline. Ocean water was blown onto land; the rains had little or nothing to do with it.
Tap water is clean and has less environmental costs than buying bottled water. It also one less thing you need to carry to from your car.
Jumpstart the tartan drive.
We got solar houses in enchanting New Mexico waiting for you.
Oh, say does that Star-Spangled Banner entwine / The myrtle of Venus with Bacchus's vine?
There is of course a non-trivial point ot remember :
IF, and only if you have tap water at you location. Which I gather large parts of non-urban America do not have, small parts of non-urban Europe do not have, and some places (like my current locale) are not going to get within 30km of without some significant new bits of plate tectonics.
Damn - they sank the water boat this high-tide.
Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
Certainly, but there are alternative solutions that include wells, rivers and rain water tanks (some found in Australia). Sure the water needs to be purified in a number of cases, but mainly only the amount needed for human consumption.
Jumpstart the tartan drive.