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China Creates Air Defence Zone Over Japan-Controlled Islands, Issues War Threat
cold fjord writes "France24 reports, "Beijing on Saturday announced it was setting up an 'air defence identification zone' over an area that includes islands controlled by Japan but claimed by China, in a move that could inflame the bitter territorial row. Along with the creation of the zone in the East China Sea, the defence ministry released a set of aircraft identification rules that must be followed by all planes entering the area, under penalty of intervention by the military. Aircraft are expected to provide their flight plan, clearly mark their nationality, and maintain two-way radio communication allowing them to 'respond in a timely and accurate manner to the identification inquiries' from Chinese authorities. The outline of the new zone ... covers a wide area of the East China Sea between South Korea and Taiwan that includes the Tokyo-controlled islands known as the Senkakus to Japan and Diaoyous to China. "China's armed forces will adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or refuse to follow the instructions," according to the ministry. ' The Politico adds, "Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said Saturday the United States is 'deeply concerned'" over the move. Spiegel Online has background on the conflict with Japan and on related regional issues. This announcement follows the recent publication in Chinese state media of maps showing nuclear strike plans against the U.S."
... and so it begins.
Far east Asian foreign policy is even more about playing off internal factions than it is in the West. I bet this is just a case of the Chinese making nasty noises in the hope that a) somebody will be placated, and b) Japan will know this and just play along until things die down.
The chances of nukes and bang bangs over this are very, very low. See also North Korea.
"And the meaning of words; when they cease to function; when will it start worrying you?"
We've always been at war with Eastasia.
You can hold down the "B" button for continuous firing.
I want to disable those missiles during their launch phase. Or better, hack their software so they detonate immediately when ordered to launch. That is how I want the NSA to spend its money. And of course making sure they can't do the same to us.
Those have to be their options, or the arrogant idiots driving this move will never quit.
As always, all IMO. Insert "I think" everywhere grammatically possible.
China is always just about one big flood away from revolution. I wonder if they are trying to set up a distraction.
It's expensive, but call their bluff and escort every craft in that airspace.
I've got better things to do tonight than die.
The issue is that it is often some few people at the top who are in secret bunkers ordering the missiles fired, where us wage drones living in large cities take the blast. When we incendiary bombed Germany factory workers were the main targets. I don't think it will be too much different now.
It only makes the aggressor more aggressive. If you want a history lesson see Munich 1938.
I have to wonder if the Chinese are using Obama's appeasement of Iran's nuclear program as an opportunity to test the west.
What would happen (I say someone, but not completely jokingly) if the US sent in a Carrier Battle Group, claimed the uninhabited islands for ourselves and set up a base, proclaiming "if you two can't work it out, neither one of you can have them. Thanks for the gift...
Yes, I know it isn't that simple, but maybe it should be sometimes when two nations behave in such a manner.
Most of our gadgets are built in China - a good portion of those are designed in Japan. China vs. Japan seems extremely relevant to anyone who plays video games, at least... if we care about the console war, we should maybe care about an actual war.
"I don't have any problem with nuclear weapons - they're a fact of life now. I just want ours to be the best."
I agree. Knowing that our nukes are shinier than China's will make our death so much more satisfying.
Every country should boycott stuff made there in protest.
Oh wait...
I've got better things to do tonight than die.
...but theres nothing the US can do to stop them. Maybe prior to 2000, maybe prior to 1990, but after years of appeasements, transfers of critical technology, and currency manipulations, the Chinese have the US by the short and curlies. Nobody wants to say it, but that doesn't mean it isn't so.
The real question is, does the US draw out some long embarassing, expensive, futile detente where they ultimately lose, or (my preference) just say Fuck It, boot the UN, cut off foreign aid, stop being the world's policeman, and let the chips fall.
I want to delete my account but Slashdot doesn't allow it.
That's as good a reason as any to only buy products made by your own country. I'd consider only buying Motorola phones made in the US if they continue.
Ok, will China go to war ? I think there is no default choice here, because chinese rulers decide a bit machivellistic, and therefore they have recognized that
China cannot sustain it's own growth of population, wealth(=CO2 Emission), industrial production(=Self polution) these factors lead to social unrest and
this is the last thing the rullers want. Looking back into the past(Tienamen Square Masacre) there is a chinese solution to social unrest - use the patriots view and direct it to an outside scapegoat / enemy.
Japan is the enemy number one, also for historic reasons - japanese nationalism has done it's part in the situation we are in now (masacres, rapes, torture / WWII)
and Japan is an easy enemy because on the one hand it's military force is specialised in defending(the main islands) but what comes in handy is the blood & death bonding with the U.S.
So in reality China wants to demonstrate strength against the U.S. and Japan comes in second(Shinzo Abe - tries to alter the "National Defense Force" into a "National Offense Force" and what gives me the creeps is that Japans tendency for nationalistic thinking is very similar to the chinese view.
China is in a deadlock situation for it's ambitions as a regional superpower, from the military capacity they are. (Nukes, Missiles, Destroyers, Subs, (experimental)Carriers)
The deadlock consists of
Japan:
- Japan is under direct U.S. protectorate, if China attacks, U.S. are about to react.
- China must find out if the U.S. will react or just play the non aggression card and give up on some rocks in the boiling sea
Taiwan
- U.S. allies
- like swizerland - if someone attacks, they will secure the country by trip/tank mines and asymetric tactics, the only chance to win
for China without paying an extreme death toll would be to blast Taiwan of the earth (Nukes)
Vietnam
- they don't like China, and feel threatened by China, espicially when China held back some good for vietman during the war
Philipines
- U.S. allies
And well those deserted rocks in the boiling sea are the weakest target, but are a lithmus test for the unconditional military support for Japan to be supported by the U.S. But if China's leaders don't watch their steps closely they could really "kill everyone in China".
China has always been the agressor in this case, these islands always belonged to Japan until China recently found interest to it.
Like South Korea, this country uses agression, lies and provocation instead of politics.
There's no way this country of liars should be trusted.
You just started a fire!
Sometimes those "wars" are on the other side of the world and don't really impact you?
China is a 3rd world country wholly dependent economically on the US...China's economy is only as good as the 'Full faith and credit' of the US Bond's it is based on.
That's about 20 years out of date.
Maybe, maybe not.
US, Japan agree to revise mutual defense treaty for first time in 16 years
Is the U.S. Committed to Defend the Senkakus? Text of Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty
much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
Actually it was never correct. China is in fact a second-world country.
Sorry for the Seinfeldism but how is this high tech, geek/nerd related? This is saber rattling. Now if you had maybe a science connection like "China Air Defense System Causes Jellyfish Bloom in China Sea!" or "China Air Defense Grab Causes Large Tsunami" then I might be interested.
Then submit a better article. :)
I don't know what propoganda you have been reading but in practical terms this is just not the case. China has a working modern industrial base, and natural resources to power it. The Chinese also have a command economy and a central bank run by the ruling party.
Yes they have lots of their wealth invested in our bonds, which they would very likely be deprived of if a armed conflict broke out. It would not derail their economy though. Right now all that money owed in bonds is effectively in the mattress for some future use. Compared to our side the trade where all that money is doing work in the present day economy. The price shock on the issuing of new debt with a major buyer suddenly out of the market might very well do us more harm than any good that could come of the write down. We'd have at least a short term economic disruption on our hands; China would be much more business as usual. That is just the financial part...Now think about all the supply chain issues we would face.
Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
except for all the others.
So they can go to what? The previous brutal theocracy that was considered by historians to be one of the more brutal regimes of the time?
For all the rage that chinese deserve, Tibet is not one of the places they deserve it for. The only reason we here in the West view the issue as such is because of current Dalai Lama's skilled diplomacy.
Read up on region's history. Theocratic system that they had in place makes current chinese government look better than Swiss. And let's not forget that over half of the region is now ethnic han. Are you planning on some ethnic cleansing on the side?
I expect anyone who launches a nuclear war will have to come out of the bunkers, sooner or later.
..don't panic
I'm more interested in knowing that in the time between when a launch is detected and confirmed on the west coast of North America, their fate as a nation will be sealed forever and all time, thus ensuring MAD is upheld.
..don't panic
We've been helping China. In the 1990s, we gave them Most Favored Nation (MFN) status. We did this not because their government was democratic, because we wanted to profit from trading with them. Since then, we've transferred factories there, sold companies to them, and are currently educating many of their students.
It would be wonderful if Chinese aggressiveness discouraged American companies from moving their factories to China, but I don't think that will happen.
It doesn't have anything to do with ICANN. It has everything to do with China realizing it cannot keep expanding its economy without a lock on a lot more natural resources. They've already claimed most of the S. China Sea all the way down the Philippines. Their "deals" in Africa are designed to lock in their claim to Africa's natural resources. They have even expressed an interest in making claims in the Arctic.
Put quickly, there is no governor on China's ambitions. Their domestic politics requires them to keep their young people supplied with enough interest in economic gain so that they don't turn to political interests. They also see the U.S. as a declining power.
This is only the beginning. It will be rough century.
If China wanted to bring the US to its knees, all it would have to do is embargo shipments of iPhones and iPads. Enraged Americans would burn Washington DC to the ground & lynch the elected officials who made it happen. And if that didn't do the trick, China's government could widen the iOS embargo to include our friends in Europe, at which point the EU would seize NATO's military assets and attack us with them until China lifted the embargo and allowed Apple products to flow freely into their nations again.
Europe surpassed the US as China's largest export market.
Wonder what would happen to the US economy if the "full faith and credit" was questioned?
The US and China are both locked in pretty tight with each other and they both know it.
What, precisely, does China possess? They didn't occupy the islands. They said "This airspace is ours, and you will follow our procedures when entering it". The obvious next move for the Japanese (or the US) is to flagrantly violate that claimed airspace, pointedly ignoring the procedures the Chinese demand. At that point the Chinese have to either start a shooting war, back off, or continue to bluster (the last being the most likely).
So linking to a website you dont like in a post automatically and magically invalidates the posters point, irrespective of factual basis? Fascinating! Sir, you are on the way to being a millionaire as you claim your nobel prize for the discovery of Magic. Can I get a cut, for being the one who pointed out your future income? 20% will be fine.
In reality, this is likely a shot directed inward. It's easy to unite the nation against a common enemy, and Japan is a very hated enemy by everyone in the region, be they han, korean, vietnamese, or any other ethnicity. Atrocities of WW2, and Japan's chronic inability to face them like Germany did ensure that it stays that way too.
I seriously doubt that this is anything more than that. As for "kill everyone in China", let's not be utterly retarded on the issue. China is just as much of a nuclear armed nation with ability to enforce MAD as France or UK. No one will start a shooting war with them, and they won't start a shooting war with anyone in the nuclear club either. They may indeed be testing how US reacts, as a "kill two birds with one stone" action, but it's unlikely to be anything more than that on either side. And as pointed out in the article, US is highly unlikely to get involved for another reason - the islands are claimed by its other ally in the region, ROC (Taiwan) as well, so defending them on Japan's behalf against China would cause a massive fallout there.
US will most likely stay the hell out of that three way fight and let them figure a way out on their own, at most offering diplomatic assistance and assurances that any kind of claims on currently undisputed territories would be met with force.
Actually that article just states the obvious and well known military fact: China is a part of nuclear club capable of strategic nuclear strikes that enable mutual annihilation doctrine.
This is not news in any way - China has been a member of that club for decades. It's just a populism for the dummies, literally. You have to be quite dumb to think that this is unusual, or threatening to US. All countries that are a part of nuclear club with strategic nuclear arsenal have plans in place to attack other countries of the same club with strategic nuclear weapons capable of effectively demolishing the country.
Enforcement of access to the land is possession. Note that in this case China does not need to physically control every square inch of the claimed territory. They only need to control it better than Japan does.
The obvious next move for the Japanese (or the US) is to flagrantly violate that claimed airspace, pointedly ignoring the procedures the Chinese demand.
I do not believe that there is anyone in Tokyo or Washington that is so much invested in these islands to risk *everything* for them. China already demonstrated that they will be very aggressive with violators. Remember that SIGINT airplane that they forced to land during the reign of W? They will do it again.
I don't have any problem with nuclear weapons - they're a fact of life now. I just want ours to be the best.. and if anyone launches, it needs to be understood, completely, your entire right to exist as a nation. There can be no other peace.
Reality, sometimes, is grim stuff.
And mine shafts. We need to have the best mine shafts!
Longest post by a Chinese shill today.
Less and less so as the US slides toward irrelevance.
You do know China has 250 nuclear warheads and credible delivery systems, right? More than any of the UK, India, Pakistan, or Israel individually. About as many as France. The only ones with more are the US and Russia. If you have enough warheads to do Hiroshima at least 250-2500 or more times over, does it really make any difference that somebody else has over 10 times as many as you do? It's a boolean equation. Both have enough
honest question:
why don't they just go after siberia?
130 million russians (and shrinking, population wise and economically) versus 1.3 billion chinese (and growing, population wise and economically) sounds like good odds
why piss so much over tiny reefs off the philippines when one good thrust can increase you country's size by a third or more, with fertile resources
siberia is even closer to beijing than it is is to moscow
the chinese claim islands off the philippines because some asshole put it on a map once
certainly they can find some ancient map of siberia in their archives, since that's apparently all the justification the chinese need to claim land
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
Sorry for the Seinfeldism but how is this high tech, geek/nerd related?
If WWIII breaks out, how will the value of my bitcoins be affected?
the topic adequacy police has spoken
we have to move on now
delete your comments and find a new topic
if the self-appoint judge disapproves again, you need to abandon that thread too
i'm sorry folks, but the topic adequacy police is in charge here, we all know that
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
Those bonds are not in a mattress. Those bonds are their banking systems reserves.
The Chinese more or less stopped buying US bonds a good four years ago. Sense then it's all been a shell game. T Bonds bought by the federal reserve. Who then use the magic of fractional reserve banking to multiply it into the money supply.
There is no 'market rate' in US treasuries today. Those are China's banks reserves...
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Tom Clancy - Threat Vector....
A Washington Times reporter, Audrey Hudson was recently the subject of a story on Slashdot about abuse of 4th Amendment rights during a police search.
The WT has generally been and are currently owned by the Unification Church or members thereof and have a very conservative editorial policy that you would expect given that ownership.
It's a great political rag in the fine tradition of the First Amendment. I would worry if we didn't have these sorts of publications to give us varying viewpoints.
...said "Linuxguy" reading a slashdot article. The irony is palpable.
That's about 20 years out of date.
So is the vast majority of their military tech...
This!!. If there is no way to win, there is less likelihood of starting the game.
Of course this only works for sane leaders who are not banking on the Chaos ushering the return of the Messiah or bringing the 12th Imam out of hiding to fulfill some distorted religious prophecy. This is sort of why it is important to keep Iran from getting the bomb.
How does a war between two of our three biggest trading partners, one of which is bound to us by a defense treaty and hosts 35,000 US troops impact us?
Negative moral value of force outweighs the positive value of good intentions.
Stuff that matters. 'Nuff said. Slashdot has never been ONLY about technology and crap.
-73, de n1ywb
www.n1ywb.com
You have here a slip of paper, you do!
(-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
You have been watching too much Fox news. The stuff they come up with to do anything to make sure people vote republican is astounding.
Like it or not we are going to go to war with Iran if they are within weeks of having a nuclear bomb. Israel made it quite clear and Iran made it clear every us ship in the gulf will be attacked.
Iran said hey lift our sanctions and we promise we will stop. The US said no not until you stop making weapons grade uranium and plutonium. Iran said ok you have a deal if we stick to 5% which can't be used in bombs and you can have weapons inspectors to prove it. The US said ok.
That is not appeasement but a deal. Appeasement is if Obama said lets be nice to Iran and give them everything they want and maybe just maybe they will be nice guys and get rid of their weapons program if we ask nicely.
http://saveie6.com/
Sounds like you've been reading The Bear and the Dragon. Good read, but for better or worse, the Pax Atomica stops it from happening.
So how does a localized dispute between Japan and China impact you?
Impact you?!
How they hell can we buy anything when 90% of all our produce is from China? What will happen to the largest employer Walmart? What about Ford, Coke, Bank of America, or 95% of all fortune 1,000 companies?
Boy you think 1929 and 2009 were bad??
Production and wealth would plummeting immediately as nothing is made here anymore! 50% of these businesses will go under
http://saveie6.com/
Less and less so as the US slides toward irrelevance.
Gosh, first time I heard that one. BTW, China can't be #1 because Japan took over the world economically in the 80's. Wake me when the US is actually irrelevant.
That's about 20 years out of date.
So is the vast majority of their military tech...
But not the 1,000,000,000 man army. Hell the Chinese have more Army and reserves than every man, woman, and child in the USA! Who cares about your stupid planes when you get a sea of army ants.
http://saveie6.com/
Alternatively we could make iPhones and iPads in the US. Might cost 10% more. Either consumers will have to pay more than Apple's already inflated prices, or Apple's cash hoard might shrink to a measly $100B.
why don't they just go after siberia?
Yeah. I like Tom Clancy, too.
But let's seriously consider this. Do you really think Russia would just sit idly by as the Chinese invaded an area which is actually bringing in good solid foreign currency? You'd have a peck of tanks headed that way on day one. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin went nuclear on the invading troops (no, he won't blow up Beijing, but I could see him blowing up chunks of Siberia.)
Consider the US as well. Remember that Exxon is working with the Russians to drill, not to mention oil shale and fracking. Hell, we sent troops to Grenada to rescue med students. What would we do to support a major US company?
After getting permission--not a difficult thing to do, I'd imagine--you'd be able to walk across the Bering Strait from all the supply ships that would be pouring materiel into Russia. We have pretty good rail transport between the lower 48 and Alaska. So you have the Russians pouring in from the west and US troops pouring in from the east and Chinese troops stuck in the middle. Not a great scenario. You might also ignite conflicts among US and Chinese allies--if North Korea could be considered a Chinese ally.
In short, you'd have World War III. And not necessarily a war that China would win.
Contrast that with the current strategy: Politically claim a batch of islands and let international law give you what you want for nothing. Even if it came down to a war, it would probably be kept localized to the South China sea. You might see a naval battle between US and China but that would be about it. Ultimately, there would be some negotiated solution where China would get enough access to the oil fields under the South China Sea to keep them happy. Nukes are doubtful--nobody is going to chuck nukes over Senkaku.
Which one of these provides the best long term hope for China?
Like I said, I like Tom Clancy books as much as the next red blooded American. But there's a reason they're kept in the fiction section.
I have a simpler solution. Japan should just sell the islands to Larry Ellison.
Well, there was a time when the US was the worlds manufacturer. Perhaps there can be a revival?
I don't think Japan cares too much anymore as I read an article a few months ago that they have developed technology to slant-drill underwater. They'll just tap the oil reserves sideways from their own land.
My Other Computer Is A Data General Nova III.
why don't they just go after siberia?
Nuclear weapons, perhaps? Russia has them, Japan doesn't. In theory America provides a nuclear umbrella for Japan, but in practice America has been a notoriously unreliable ally for the past 50 years.
America's recent actions toward Taiwan have helped underscore this for China. In the 90's, China had to sabre-rattle and make threats to keep try to keep Taiwanese from openly announcing they are independent. But in recent years America has thrown a lot of support behind pro-China candidates that have run for office in Taiwan - and made a big deal about how wonderful it is they want to end Taiwan's independence. China has figured with Taiwan coming their way (whether the people of Taiwan want it or not) they can focus on other claims they would like to make.
American has strongly suggested that it would be much more convenient for us if an industrialized democracy with more people than Australia would just lay down and try to enjoy it. That has to embolden China.
I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
If we went to war with China, there would have to be. Otherwise the US would collapse.
DHS and the CIA will now be looking for anyone named "Anonymous Coward". I suggest you travel under an alias.
There is an Air Defense Identification Zone all around the U.S. as well. In addition, there's one around Washington D.C. Unfortunately, when they added that one 2003 they installed backwards. It keeps people out of Washington airspace instead of keeping the politicians penned up inside.
So far, they don't even have that.
I rather doubt there are many (but there's always a few) in Tokyo or Washington who thinks China is going to risk *everything* for them, if by *everything* you mean full-scale war. On the other hand, I guarantee you there's a lot of people in both places who figure letting this go unchallenged will simply result in more of the same.
They were posturing and one of their pilots ended up colliding with the plane they were supposed to be posturing to. It ended up with the US writing a letter saying either "we're sorry we violated your airspace" or "we're sorry you assholes didn't respond to our distress calls" depending on how you looked at it, and the flights they objected to continued.
Nah, even the Chinese shills are a lot subtler than that. I just want to ask what color the sky is in his world.
I do not believe that there is anyone in Tokyo or Washington that is so much invested in these islands to risk *everything* for them.
Is Beijing so invested in them that they are willing to risk everything?
Remember that SIGINT airplane that they forced to land during the reign of W? They will do it again.
Likely, but that didn't start a war (too many shipments of Chinese junk to the US were at stake).
I like it - call it removing a hazard to navigation.
Nice to have a Taiwanese troll instead of a Chinese troll for a change (though the Chinese would insist there's no difference).
How about letting Taiwan defend itself? It's not poor, and has plenty of potential allies in the area that want to contain China.
Politically claim a batch of islands and let international law give you what you want for nothing.
Depend on which worthless islands you're talking about, China's claims under international law are somewhere between tenuous and laughable. Were it otherwise, they'd likely be pursuing that approach.
You could consider that, but the stockholders would get personally offended. They'll then split up the companies and sell the bits for scrap to maximise their profits. Nearly happened to Philips a while back.
Every experiment which ends in a big bang is a good experiment.
It is actually called "Air defense recognition zone". Even an aircraft carrier has such a zone too while moving. It is more like a surveillance zone (not applicable to the NSA though as it covers the whole world). The war threat was reportedly a response to Japanese threat to shoot down Chinese drones over disputed islands.
China's version of expansionism: "oh, this little piece of land has always been apart of China". Then they redraw all their maps, make diplomatic protests and other formalities for decades until the world concedes.
...is the fact that there is clearly nobody - Democrat or Republican - who is competent enough to play a serious game of brinksmanship WITHIN our government without fucking it up. I can't imagine that they're going to be any more competent with the Chinese, and the consequences here are far more serious than the US budget for the year or Obamacare.
-Styopa
I would be very very surprised if Japan just lets China enforce this airspace claim. If diplomacy fails Japan will have to send a plane into the area to flaunt the rules China has stated.
It will be interesting to see how it is done. Will it be a single civilian plane? A single fighter? A large squadron of fighters? A civilian plane with a large military escort? Will an American carrier be nearby to provide support of needed?
It's hard to guess the exact details, but Japan will find it hard not to challenge China's power grab if the issue can't be resolved diplomatically.
I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
I'mOKWithThat.jpg
What potential allies would those be? They can't even get anyone but America to sell them weapons because everyone is so afraid of China. As for letting Taiwan defend itself, you do realize that we pulled all our troops and Naval bases out of Taiwan back in the 70s, don't you?
I do agree with you though that Taiwan should do more to defend itself.
I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
> Wonder what would happen to the US economy if the "full faith and credit" was questioned?
Apparently nothing... Do you not remember last month?
> Wake me when the US is actually irrelevant.
We aren't in any way at this time, but if we don't start caring for our citizens again and start handing out raises, we're fucked.
ruling?
they floated boats there
they made maps
that's not rule
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel reiterated the defense treaty yesterday. He said it applies to the disputed islands.
i wasn't thinking about tom clancy, i was thinking about recent history:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict
not to mention manchuria and beyond has been a war field between russia, japan, and china for decades in recent history
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Port_Arthur
china, today, has border arguments with all its neighbors, all around
but russia?
shhh
all quiet on the western front
ominous
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
China is claiming sea waters from southern Japan to northern Philippines, some where 1200 miles south of their southern-most point. China is fast becoming the bully in the Far East, much like, ironically, Japan itself 100 years ago. Both countries were under dictatorships, recently enjoyed massive economic growths, hence more thirst for resources. Left uncheck, China will begin another world war in the Far East.
I'm sure Chinese generals were asked to model this development; and I am sure China has specific plans for all these scenarios.
Who will win and who will lose in case of an air battle? Who has more control over arbitrary war-like actions - democratic Japan, with their governments falling like dominoes every year, or China, with a monolithic government that does not fall? Finally, who has more airplanes? I do not believe that 10 Japanese airplanes will shoot at 100 Chinese fighters, especially if there are 100 air defense missile warships on the surface.
China even has a sandbox (NK/SK) where they can experiment with such conflicts - and they do so. The belief is that the enlightened West got too soft and too fat to protect a few square miles of land and a few hundred square miles of water in the middle of nowhere. They intend to win this round of saber-rattling. Will they? I cannot be sure; it's always possible that Shinzo Abe manages to wake up his inner Samurai and order an all-out conquest of the islands. But it's not very likely. China is pretty strong in military aspect; Japan, on the other hand, is focusing on defense. It may not even have the necessary equipment.
The role of the USA will be minimal because Xi Jinping will call Obama and order him to stay away. Involvement of the USA is also domestically unacceptable for Obama - the last thing he needs now is to stick a finger in someone else's mess on the other side of the planet. You simply cannot sell fighting over a few uninhabited islands as an attack on Japan; but the US electorate wouldn't care anyway, being already mad at Obama for all these cancellations of health insurances.
The role of UN will be also minimal because Japan now has to act as an invader, probably against already deployed Chinese ship-borne defenses. Besides, the President of the UN Security Council is Liu Jieyi, a Chinese citizen. Must be a pure coincidence, that. China is a permanent member of UN SC; Japan is not there at all.
Apartment building & iPhones dont make them '1st World'...
They are a **communist totalitarian country** with **state controlled media & markets**
Has everyone forgotten what a state controlled media means? Fox News is horrible, but it is ***NOTHING*** compared to China's news.
Here's why China is not threat: they can barely keep their country together & it's zooming to an environmental/human crisis...
1. Pollution
1.a. Human Pollution: China's disasterous 1 child policy and culture of favoring male children has resulted in a whole generation of Chinese society that is 60-40 Male-Female...it's a social crisis they talk about all the time over there
1.b. Environmental Pollution: Have you seen the fucking pictures of the smog? Dumping of industrial waste turning rivers red? Dumping of Human corpses into main rivers? Its a fucking nightmare...
Chinese people are just as awesome as any other people...it's their government and our government's relationship to it economically that causes any notion of friction
China is **not** a threat to the United States in any serious way!
Thank you Dave Raggett
those 1,000,000,000 people would be slaughtered...and the Chinese goverment would secretly be **cheering**
their population/environment is headed straight off a cliff....they **need** their male population reduced after the 1 Child Policy screwed up their whole male/female population balance
also, how the fuck do the 1,000,000,000 man "army" get here to North American continent?
no boats or planes with unfriendly intent can get anywhere near the US borders
note: none of this will ever happen b/c chinese leaders arent idiots
Thank you Dave Raggett
You would go bankrupt while you wait for that to happen.
The banks would go under so you would have 0 lines of credit to use to open a factory.
Lets say you wanted to go all 100% American made. You think you can walk into an abandoned warehouse and turn it into a factor with full production in 24 hours? It would take months maybe years to fit a Ford plant or even something simple like carbonated Coke sugar water.
Walmart would be under in a matter of weeks as these companies live off their stock prices which would all fail as well as lines of credit which would vanish at the same time.
Apple might survive because they have a shit ton of cash. Most companies live on slim margins based on a single Chinese supplier for their existence to cut down on costs.
There would be no America anymore and this points to a very real problem. All this CFO and accountants running companies HATE redundancies and alternative suppliers. Instead it is all eggs in one basket to get a lower unit price in volume BS. All risk for short term stock price gains.
http://saveie6.com/
if we don't start caring for our citizens again and start handing out raises
If we don't eventually wake up and do that, I'd want the US to become irrelevant.
store them in your bitcoin safe or bury them in your bitcoin jar and hide them under your mattress?
Harrison's Postulate - "For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism"
"I am the law!" - Judge Dredd.
besides why rehash what's already all over the news here? If you're going to take a story that's been echoed by every major news outlet, spin it in such a way that it doesn't just say the same thing or focus on the technology aspects or "Stuff that matters."
Here's a more appropriate story-line "China/Japan dispute threatens world XBox supply! Millions of nerds cry foul as they try to learn the new PS4!"
Harrison's Postulate - "For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism"
While if the war were only a "phony war", what you are saying might happen, I'm rather afraid you are being extremely optimistic. You are assuming that nuclear/biological/chemical weapons aren't used. (Well, chemical would actually probably not have large scale consequences.)
However you should look up Nuclear Winter/Autumn scenarios. I expect that global crop failures could be expected at a bare minimum. And by crop failures I mean that essentially NOTHING could be harvested, and that the fruit trees cracked by freezing, so they wouldn't be available later as anything other than firewood. I don't think a 90% die-off of all humans worldwide is an unreasonable expectation if there's a major nuclear exchange. It may be optimistic. And the deaths would mainly be due to starvation and hypothermia. The freezing cold might not get as far south as the equatorial regions, but it would likely get too cold for the plants native to those areas to live.
So my expectation is that your scenario wouldn't have time to develop before things sufficiently worse became commonplace that nobody would even notice it.
I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
are you telling me the chinese have common culture with coral sponges?
no one lives there. no one ever did. it's a fucking joke that china claims these atolls clearly the property of the philippines
as for russia being an ally, you're historically ignorant
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
Japan won't order an all-out conquest of islands they already control. The question is how they will deal with these threats by China to infringe on their airspace. With fighter planes, it isn't just who has more, it's also who has better planes, better pilots, and better situational awareness (and probably a couple other things I'm not thinking of). If China has better planes and better training, then Japan won't go into this alone - America will be involved. At this point America is probably better equipped for aerial combat simply based on experience - America has spent a lot more time in the age of fighter planes.
I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
While if the war were only a "phony war", what you are saying might happen, I'm rather afraid you are being extremely optimistic. You are assuming that nuclear/biological/chemical weapons aren't used. (Well, chemical would actually probably not have large scale consequences.)
However you should look up Nuclear Winter/Autumn scenarios. I expect that global crop failures could be expected at a bare minimum. And by crop failures I mean that essentially NOTHING could be harvested, and that the fruit trees cracked by freezing, so they wouldn't be available later as anything other than firewood. I don't think a 90% die-off of all humans worldwide is an unreasonable expectation if there's a major nuclear exchange. It may be optimistic. And the deaths would mainly be due to starvation and hypothermia. The freezing cold might not get as far south as the equatorial regions, but it would likely get too cold for the plants native to those areas to live.
So my expectation is that your scenario wouldn't have time to develop before things sufficiently worse became commonplace that nobody would even notice it.
Nuclear war would be a last option and I doubt both sides would bother. People would kill themselves in the process. Now if only 1 side had a nuclear weapon than that would be case but only 1 or 2 be needed.
But I may sound like a nutcase but it is an economic fact that short sided CEOs, CFOs, and cost accountants mixed with the corruption on not caring about US interests means China has us by the balls. No Walmart for the southern US means 1/3 of all GPD gone. Walmart is part of the problem as they literally force suppliers to outsource or they will make their own Chinese knock off themselves so they can keep prices low. The only way to keep prices low is to use just one supplier to get the volume and economy of scales discounts. But war or a disaster like what happened in Thialand with hard drives?! ... we remember last year. Every hard drive maker got impacted. STUPID.
http://saveie6.com/
So? That didn't help them much when they tried to invade Vietnam. The logistics even just outside their border was poor and their artillery was outranged by what the US left behind.
They've modernized their artillery and made transport improvements, but they just don't have the long reach logistics to project power and protect it yet. They're working on it by building up a more powerful navy better antiaircraft capability and improved ASW for exactly that reason.
Until they complete that, a number of submarines can keep that army locked up on the mainland.
JAPAN and any countries threatened by Chinese hegemony need nukes.
If you are serious about defending yourself you are willing to exterminate your attackers and eliminate the threat even if deterrence fails. If you are going to be erased there is every reason to ensure few enemy humans survive to plague the postwar world.
China is huge enough to withstand a nuclear exchange, so to deter it one needs many nuclear weapons. Mao knew this, and had no problem expending as many peasants as necessary to win. He won using that strategy and unified China. Chinese leaders value own-side life very little (human wave attacks during the Korean War are an example) because they know its easily replaced. Their record proves it.
Hiding under the nuclear skirts of the US isn't enough, because the US would be idiotic to suicide for Asia. Japan is enormously wealthy and can afford its own weapons.
Too bad we got in the way of Nippon solving the Chinese problem the last time. Tiny Japan was never the threat China will become.
"This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
Read up on region's history.... And let's not forget that over half of the region is now ethnic han. Are you planning on some ethnic cleansing on the side?
How did over half the region become ethnically Han? I guess you only tolerate ethnic cleansing by the Chinese.
Since the dawn of human kind, when our ancestors first discovered the killing power of rock and bone, blood has been spilled in the name of everything
Even before Humans were Humans our ancestors had already been engaging in wars.
If you read this - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titus_(gorilla) - you would understand that primates (including Homo Sapiens Sapiens) are born with the capability to kill, with or without any reason.
Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
...
This is the country that ran tanks over unarmed students in a public square ...
I came from China.
In fact, I ran away from China's oppressive regime.
After reading your description the image of this - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings - rushes back.
Yes, China _is_ under an oppressive government, but that does not mean the same can/could never happen in the United States of America.
Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
Saddam and Iraq were quite open about supporting terrorism
Please, do us all a BIG FAVOR, Mr. Cold Fjord.
Please cut the crap !
Saddam Hussein had done a LOT OF VERY TERRIBLE THINGS to his own people, but he NEVER support any of those "terrorists".
Saddam was in no way linked to Al Queda nor any of its splintered groups.
Saddam was in no way linked to Hezbollah nor any of its affiliates.
In fact, many of the terrorist groups, aka Islamists and/or Jihadists are being supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, who, incidentally, are ALLIES of the United States of America !
I do not know who you are working for, but spreading LIES in Slashdot seems to have become your full time job.
Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
As one who couldn't stand the tyranny of the CCP regime here's my take on why China is doing what it is doing ...
This is a preemptive measure designed solely for America.
It is designed so to tell America that if the United States really wants to engage China, it would be a SUPER EXPENSIVE affair.
Although it is true, as Shanghai Bill has put it, part of the reason of what is happening now, is for internal consumption (to drum up support for the CCP inside China), one has to understand that China's newest crop of leaders grew up post Mao's calamitous reign over China.
In other words, this group of leaders worldview is very different from that of Deng Xiao Ping, and they are not afraid to engage Japan head-on, along whoever dare to aid Japan, in an all-out war.
That's the exact message they are giving Uncle Sam - fuck us and you will burn.
Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
China doesn't need to invade Russian Siberia (or Far East, which is more in their vicinity), because they're slowly settling it by peaceful means. It's not just immigration - in true internationalist Chinese fashion (you can be whatever the hell you want, so long as you count it as Han), male immigrants tend to create families with local females, which is considered an attractive arrangement for the latter because Chinese workers (and even more so, small business people) they are considered hard workers and bring good income for the family.
Ok, lets think a little higher level here. Does China want the islands? Yes. Is that why they set up this air defence zone *now*? No. China often uses political currency against Japan as a means for domestic population control. They rile up the public against Japan to draw attention away from major domestic issues, essentially changing the group dynamic. In this case there was a massive oil pipe explosion of a Sinopec pipeline which resulted in many deaths (52 now?) in Qingdao, many more injured, and the government takes no responsibility and no firings will take place. This has people FURIOUS. To quell the riots on the way they need to utilize things like the DIaoyu which drum up nationalist pride, distract the masses, and cry victim at every opportunity.
Russia has been an enemy long before that (it participated in quelling the Boxer Rebellion, for example), then ally against Japanese, then enemy when it supported the commie rebels, then ally when it supported the new communist government against nationalist rebels and Japanese, then enemy again after Stalin died. The current status is really very vague... Russia feels that China is an important geopolitical partner because it tends to vote similarly in UNSC (generally on promoting national sovereignty over human rights concerns, and on containing the West). OTOH, Chinese have been eyeing the Far East for a long time now, and they actually have a land border with Russia. Additionally, a lot of Russians express admiration over how Chinese managed their own transition from socialism to capitalism without fucking up their country quite as severely (which is very much arguable, but nevertheless it is a popular perception), and want to copy some of their methods.
So it's a weird sort of "we're buddies against this guy (US/NATO), but I'm keeping my eye on you" kind of thing.
I very much doubt that Iranian religious leaders are fanatics. Khomeini was one, but his successors are far more pragmatic, and seem to realize that religion is primarily a convenient tool to control the masses, no more.
This last was in 2009, in fact. So, yes, there can be a revival.
Japan in full control of the Chinese mainland wouldn't be tiny. Not to forget that they had plans even more grandiose...
The incompetence was driven by significant economic drive, as it increased government contractor's budgets massively.
A cold war would largely result in exact opposite in long term, as many US companies would lose essentially all of their massive investments in US. In comparison, there's essentially nothing to lose and a lot to gain by same companies by going to war with Iraq, Afghanistan and so on. They had no market or production there due to sanctions, and after the war, a massive market has opened up.
When the nips activate Mecha-Tokyo! Hell by now they probably have the entire island mech-afied. We've been playin around with robots that look like bees or hummingbirds, and they have cars and buildings that turn into giant robots! Haven't you guys seen Voltron? That wasn't a kids cartoon, that was PROTOTYPE!!
If I sound stupid, it's not me talking....
China cannot sustain it's own growth of population
The current fertility rate in China is 1.58, and the continues growth is only because people are living longer.
Your whole post if full of that kind of ignorant rhetoric which paints China has some kind of militaristic threat. Actually this is just a typical territorial dispute, lots of posturing but with neither side wanting it to escalate to a shooting match. China has no interest in "testing" or attacking the US or its allies.
You don't see Chinese spy planes or drones going down over the US, do you? American spy planes and drones regularly fly over Chinese airspace though, and occasionally crash. That's what they want to stop. America acts like it can do whatever the hell it likes, but China disagrees.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
China & Taiwan had zero interest in these islands or the areas around them until Japanese prospectors found natural gas deposits in the seabed nearby.
Now all of a sudden they both want them, while Japan has had small fishing villages and whatnot there for a long, long, time now (much earlier than WWII).
This is complicated, and I don't see Japan easily giving up a potential source of energy replacement for their nuclear facilities.
@Mindless Drivel: 100% of Twitter posts ever Tweeted.
give it a decade or two
russia gets more decrepit, china gets more powerful
china is not going to do anything until it's an easy grab
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
US will most likely stay the hell out of that three way fight and let them figure a way out on their own, at most offering diplomatic assistance and assurances that any kind of claims on currently undisputed territories would be met with force.
This is true only as long as Japan and China don't start actually shooting at each other.
The possible outcomes:
1. Japan and China decide to let this die down (possible)
2. They work something out politically.
3. There is a skirmish of some sort, plane gets shot down a fish boat sinks. (this is where things get interesting/scary)
a. Big political shit storm and something gets worked out.
b. The US sends in 1 or more carrier groups to patrol the disputed waters. ( this is the preamble to WIII, baring any last minute miracles)
The last thing that US wants to do is to start sending threatening signals to any involved. US wants to stay out of this mess. It has nothing to win, and a lot to lose by getting dragged into this ancient fight over what is essentially fishing and drilling rights in a disputed region claimed by several of its allies as well as China.
If you really think that US will get into a shooting war against China over this, I have good news for you. They won't. This is classic East Asian saber rattling where everyone in the region will extract a lot of internal good will towards governments taking "tough stance on old regional enemy", and status quo will remain. It's a bit like the current situation with the islands, where reporters from western news agencies were able to go take photos of the islands in spite of Japanese prohibition, as long as they didn't tell japanese coast guard watching them that they did it.
This is about preserving face for all parties involved. Even the dumbest, most warmongering politician in US will not want to get in the middle of that.
I would hope that any military has drawn up plans on the potential deployment of any of its weapons against any remotely potential adversary. If they're doing less than that, it's time to fire whoever's in charge.
The US staying out provokes Chinese expansion in every scenario. The occupied countries won't like that one bit (see the citizens of China who don't like living there). At that point the global economy suffers from less trading partners, and an aggressor nation is knocking on the US's doorstep.
This is an argument about a few rocks and economic right from EEZ around those islands. Let's not mix apples and tractors here.
China hasn't been a second-world country for a while now (since about 1960, apparently).
"[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz
with a country that has nuclear strike plans for our cities.
Keep buying that cheap Chinese crap and electing dirtbags that help corporations take businesses and jobs out of the US.
http://www.examiner.com/article/iran-s-apocalyptic-vision
I'M not sure about that.
It's a rather meh article - it basically gives you the overview of the religious Shia doctrine, and then runs ahead and basically proclaims that this is what the leadership subscribes, with a few cherry-picked quotes.
The thing to remember about Iran is that, unlike most islamist formations, it is a genuine, bona fide nation-state with its own national (Persian/Iranian) identity. What more, those guys do hold a very ancient grudge back from the day when they were the dominant power in the region, and were overrun and conquered by newly minted Muslim Arabs in a matter of a few years. While Islam is, in theory, internationalist, and Sunnah contains explicit prohibitions against nationalism, in practice Arabs have treated the non-Arab subjects of their ever expanding empire as second class citizens, even when they converted, and this applied to Iran as well. This, in turn, bred resentment among Iranians, which is also very well remembered. The end result is that unlike Sunni extremists, who dream of a worldwide caliphate that would unite all Muslims regardless of their ethnicity or nationality, Iranians are very much oriented at nation-building - Shia Islam for them is part of the national identity, but does not subsume it.
As is so frequently the case, religion happens to be a cheap and efficient way to rile up the masses when you need that (e.g. in a total war, or when suppressing internal dissent), and so it is used as such by Iranian leaders. But if you look at what they do, as opposed to what they say, it's fairly obvious that Iran has pretty capable and goal-oriented leadership that is not hell-bent on starting apocalypse. Really, if they wanted to do so, and felt like dying the glorious shaheed death as a nation, they could have bought a nuke from Pakistan and used it on Israel years ago. But they don't want that: they want to be the dominant power in the region again, and they would totally pull that off if not for US backing of the Arab states surrounding them (KSA and friends), and Israel. They do hold a grudge the latter, but because it is a challenger to their ambitions, not because of some ancient prophecy.
Case in point: for the last few months, while continuing to talk about how "USA is the Big Satan" etc, turns out that their diplomats were actually quietly brokering an agreement with the aforementioned Big Satan over their nuclear program, so that the country can actually move forward on other things. What more, the work on that agreement has begun even before the new president was elected - i.e. it was initiated by that crazy guy Ahmadinejad. Go figure.
"I desperately don't want ... to see the end of the human race."
"I want engineered diseases that have a 100% fatality rate"
What you do want could lead to what you don't want.
Nobody, barring a loon, would PLAN that they would get into a nuclear conflict, but things have a way of escalating.
You are right about China's economic dominance over the US, but when a major war comes along, economics is often ... altered. Foreign debts are often put on hold, and if it's against the country that you are at war with, they can even be repudiated with only relatively minor damage to your financial reputation. (This wouldn't help WalMart, of course.)
P.S.: China is no longer the current low cost outsourcer for many things. The last time I saw a story about it, China was outsourcing some manufacturing to Indonesia.
I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
The problem with Chinese banks is that the worthless pieces of paper from the US are their best assets.
That's what comes from a command economy. When a son of a central committee member wants a loan, they get one. It can also never be called a bad loan or collected on. Rinse, repeat for 30 years and your have China today.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
honest question:
why don't they just go after siberia?
130 million russians (and shrinking, population wise and economically) versus 1.3 billion chinese (and growing, population wise and economically) sounds like good odds
The Russians aren't Americans.
Somebody takes hostages in the US, they get on the phone and try to talk them down. Somebody takes a movie theater full of hostages in Russia and they gas the place and send in the Spetsnaz (with a number of deaths). Complain to a minister about your husband dying on a sub and you get injected with a tranquilizer on national TV, and then end up explaining to the world that they were just giving you your heart medication.
China messes with the US and they end up at the bargaining table. China messes with Russia and Putin gives them a call and asks to talk to somebody sane before he does something drastic in retaliation.
And relative populations doesn't really matter until you get to the occupation phase. It isn't like they're going to go running across Siberia on foot charging down the machine gun emplacements. When you want to put soldiers on every street corner the numbers matter. However, when you're busy trying to blow up tanks and aircraft what matters is how many tanks and aircraft you have and their capabilities.