HOWEVER I will cheerfully defend the rights of others to play them. It is imperative that the free thinking among us stand up against this rising tide of intolerance and cluelessness.
This election is 1858 all over again... Stand up against the theocracy. Stand up for your rights!
1. he doesn't get tired.
2. he doesn't show up an hour late for practice, completely drunk.
3. he doesn't ask stupid questions when the rest of the band gets into strategy and show planning.
4. he won't eat all th efood i nthe fridge at the band house.
5. he won't choke to death on someone else's vomit.
But if he is using Sony batteries, he might spontaneously combust...
No. Space travel is a temporary situation. It will cost too much and become unfeasible in the next 50 - 100 years.
It's industrial civilisation's equivalent of the pyramids. Valuable at the time. But in the far distant future, they won't remember the asteroid we deflected in 2044. A weird result of a massive excess in resources, funds, and exuberance.
It's NOT the end of the world. It's just different.
Really. Different.
RS
Of the set of people who ever will travel in space, most of them already have.
I *completely* agree that fatalism is a Very Bad Thing. No argument from me in that regard. However: I do not see the disappearance of industrialism as Bad. Unfortunate, yes, but not "Bad".
Fusion will change things, IF it ever works. Unfortunately, the world is industrialising rapidly, and the fastest, surest way to do that is via petroleum. This results in an increased demand on an inherently limited resource. Resource extraction follows a kind of bell curve - oil, copper, whatever - its rises levels off, and then goes into depletion. You are correct *in theory* with your point about "primary energy". Given enough energy, we can pull huge quantities of metal out of seawater. What one would do with the resulting sludge is another matter, but in a reductivist view, yes: enough energy gives you everything you need.
However: there is this practical issue involved: time. We extract (x) amount of petroleum a day. There is only (Y) left. The rate of demand increases (D). As (x) decreases (viz hubbert curve) and D increases, prices skyrocket, and it becomes increasingly difficult to use the energy oen does have to prepare for a time when that energy source is gone.
A few factual points: You said "since oil is NOT used in asphalt & plastics because of it being an energy source.", you are completely incorrect. Plastics occupy a sizeable percentage of the petroleum pulled from the ground, as does the glop required for asphalt. From: Facts About Fossil Fuels
The oil refining process separates crude oil into different hydrocarbons and removes impurities such as sulfur, nitrogen, and heavy metals. The first step is fractional distillation, a process that takes advantage of the fact that different hydrocarbons boil at different temperatures. In a tall tower called a fractionating column, crude oil is heated until it boils. Horizontal trays divide the column at intervals. As the oil boils, it vaporizes. Each hydrocarbon rises to a tray at a temperature just below its own boiling point. There, it cools and turns back into a liquid.
The lightest fractions are liquefied petroleum gases (propane and butane) and the petrochemicals used to make plastics, fabrics, and a wide array of consumer products. Next come gasoline, kerosene, and diesel fuel. Heavier fractions make home heating oil and fuel for ships and factories. Still heavier fractions are made into lubricants and waxes. The remains include asphalt.
So: peak oil == peak asphalt. And peak Kerosene. And Peak plastics. and peak candles.
The other problem is this: our miraculous "Green Revolution" is predicated on natural gas in fertiliser. Peak Gas == peak fertiliser. No gas == Different Sources for fertiliser, none of which as rich and intense as the stuff we get from below.
I am *not* a doomer. You want a doomer? Jay Hanson fits the bill nicely. I am actually a very positive person on this. What I am opposed to is the delusional thinking of the techno-positivist cornucopians. There is no magic energy faerie that is going to save this wasteful stupid lifestyle. Exponential population growth Will Stop. It's not a question of IF, it's merely a matter of When and How. Resource depletion will not continue indefinitely. Again: not a question of IF, just a matter of When and How.
Since it cannot be avoided, the question is, "how do we get from here to there?"
You wrote:
I tell you what I think will happen: alternative energies, regionalized energy production, ecologically neutral cities designed for walking & biking will boom. Cars will be used less (no point to drive much in a city anyway) and move to ethanol, liquified coal, hydrogen, or even batteries/supercapacitors. Yes, the transition phase will be hard. Population growth will slow down, if not stop. But the outcome could actually be BETTER than today's world.
Sure we can use nuclear power. But nuclear power won't fertilise your crops, paint your house, wash your hair, or make your meds. Furthermore, nuclear power is based on a limited resource: uranium. Its extraction will also hit a peak, and then its production will also drive down in quanitity and up in expense.
And hopefully by the time uranium starts to run out we'll have fusion.
fusion won't make your meds, fertilise your crops, or wash your hair. It might keep the lights on. For a while. Sorry: there is no technological energy fairy to solve the problem of exponential population growth. The population MUST subside. It can do it voluntarily by having fewer children or involuntarily through disease, warfare, and/or starvation. don;t like that? Tough.
And yeah it's getting harder to mine copper and other resources, but the stuff we've already mined is still around.
And it is oxidising quickly. Deoxidising takes a lot of energy. Energy we don't have. Also, the demand for these metals continues to explode with the population. A population we can no longer feed.
Hopefully someone will come up with a plastic pipe that doesn't suck so we won't have to use copper pipe any more.
Peak oil == peak plastic.
Peak oil == peak asphalt.
Peak oil == peak energy.
After petroleum's one-time gift of stored solar energy, and the rapid depletion of fissionable materials, we'll be back to a solar economy. The industrial period will go down in history like the myth of Atlantis. As I said: We Are Atlantis.
I think you're making a pretty bold statement saying that there is no possible way to create true human level AI. Who's to say that 25, 50, 100 years from today someone doesn't figure out a way of programing a computer/entity/whatever-sort-of-electronic-device
That's what they've been saying for the past 25, 50, 100 years...
Face it: it ain't gonna happen. It's no big deal. The hard part is giving up the Star Trek techno-masturbation fantasy. Once you dispense with that, the future looks a good bit grimmer, but much more colourful and interesting.
...where to begin with such a blathering pile of bullshit?
Hmmm... Well, let's tackle the AI thing.
AI = Human Intelligence isn't going to happen. Ever. You might be able to get a machine that can take as many input data points as the human brain, and get it to execute as many data output points as the brain, but that's not intelligence. That's I/O and there's a big fat difference.
Security won't exist. Really? So if some asshat barges into my house I won't be able to pound his skull to a bloody pulp with my baseball bat? Ooooh- we're talking computer security? Well who ever promised computer security in the first place? If it's a transmissable dataset, it can be recieved, re-routed, intercepted and decoded, given enough time and resources, and that's today. There never WAS any computer security, so his argument is a strawman.
Thirdly, he didn't say where the energy is going to come for all this.
Fact: Kuwaits largest oilfield peaked last November.
Fact: The Saudi's largest field (Ghawar) is puming between 30 and 50% seawater. They haven't announced that it is in decline, because it would set off international freak-out alarm bells, but everyone in the general know KNOWS that the Saudis are cooking the books and are at or close to peak.
Fact: Americans continue to consume VAST quantities of energy and piss it away on trivial bullshit - from personal nonsense (like cellphones, gameboys, Xbox, rotisserie ovens, etc.) to larger potlach level wastes (like Las Vegas), and NONE of it is sustainable. Period.
Fact: Besides energy rapidly approaching a massive down curve, we also rapidly approach the peaking and imminent depletion of our metals. Copper ore averages 5%. Phosphorus, chromium and magnesium production peaked years ago.
His unadulterated adulation of Star Trek only serves to underline his chronic case of cranio-rectal inversion.
Industrial Civilisation is (slowly) drawing to a close. It's not the end, yet, but in about 15 years, we'll be able to see it from there. After that, it is back to the land and farming. Forever. We Are Atlantis.
Is image manipulation thaat much better with the latest photoshop than with PS 5.5?
Yes. PS CS2 is light years better than 5.5 for the imaging professional.
How?
Well, two things that make my life MUCH easier:
1. The Shadow enhance thingie. You can use it to bring out details in a shadowed area. If used badly, it looks like crap, but it can really make or break a photo. Awesome tool.
2. The Healing Tool. It's kind of like the clone tool, but much more sophisticated. I have used it countless times to "fix" a face.
Those are only 2 minor things that are big BIG pluses for me. There are bigger things, but I'm pressed for time right now. I could go on and on, but seriously: Photoshop CS2 is WAY better than 5.5.
However, at least a few F-14s will continue to fly for a few more years: Iran -- which took delivery of 79 aircraft before the overthrow of the Shah -- still flies the plane, though only a small number (perhaps ten or twenty) are believed to still be in service due to a lack of spare parts and attrition."
Ehhh- our Feeerlez Leedor and his evil Evil EVIL minions will likely destroy those jets on November 8th.
Think about it: industrial civilisation is teetering on the verge of collapse, we are in DESPERATE need of finding major breakthroughs in energy development and low energy materials science, and this pathetic little weasel wants to become a lawyer. The world is FILLED with shithead patent lawyers. What we need are brilliant innovators. Any dumb fuck who has the patience for tedious drear can be a lawyer. But to come up with a cheap and renewable replacement for polystyrene or PVC? We need things like that.
What do you call a bus full of lawyers careening off a cliff? A Good Start.
Me (RS): (softly and cooly breathy) Yes...
Telemarketer (T): Hello Mr Spoilsport may I call you Ralph?
RS: I own you...
T: Sorry?
RS: I own your soul...
T: You own what?
RS: I am Sataaan... I know you to the Soooooul... You are mine....
T: May I interest you in (product)?
RS: Come to Sataaaaan... Come to me.... You are mine... I own your soul...
T: (Agitated) Does this sound like something you might be interested in?
RS: Come to Sataaaan... I own your soul... You will rot in hell with me.... Come to me...
etc.
Once this black woman called and I did the Satan routine and she FREAKED OUT. She started crying and hung up. I scored 30 points for that.
Another favourite tack on these creatures:
RS: WHAT?
T: Hello? Is this Mr Spoilsport?
RS: FUCK YOU!
T: What?
RS: FUCK YOU AND YOUR WHORE OF A MOTHER WHO IS SUCKING MY COCK RIGHT NOW YOU SCUM SUCKING PIECE OF SHIT!
(click)
I get 20 points for that - It's a brute force approach. It's not that creative and it's kind of mean, so you only get 20 points for it.
Also: there's the classic:
RS: Bobo!
T: Hello? Is this Mr Spoilsport?
RS: Yabba! Tengo bleck nock! Curby flipwitters!
T: Do you speak English?
RS: Me me me speak English!
T: Would you be interested in (product pitch)?
RS: Ama watamela eatie foo!
T: What?
RS: yumma cunt swabber! Peenie drip bubby! Yumma buttlicker!
T: What?
RS: shibby shops! Peeface! Yabba Peeface!
etc. If yo ucan get them to hang up, you get 40 points, because talking like an idiot with a straight face long enough to get them to hang up is pretty hard.
Then there's always:
RS: Yes...
T: hi is this mr Spoilsport?
RS: What's it to you, motherfucker?
T: Sorry?
RS: I'm coming to your house, and I'm going to kill all your pets.
etc. whatever tey say, just march over it and make weid fucked up pseudo threats, like "I'll steal all your garbage" or "I'll pee in your garden" or "I'll get your dog knocked up" etc.
Telemarketers were put on this earth to be abused.
This is unbelievable, even in this administration where sadly, one has come to expect this type of mentality. BTW - Let me say that I am a registered Republican before I get flamed by all the NeoCons.
That you are a registered republican, I find forgiveable. What you (Mr Republican) and I (Mr Socialist) have in common is this: we believe in the rule of law and the government as a utility for positive public policy. You and I can (and will) disagree with a WIDE range of what the.gov should or should not do. And as far as I am concerned: that's OK. That's what makes America great.
But what has happened is very sad: the Republican party has been largely hijacked by (for want of a better word) fascists. They don't care about you and your pissy little ideas about limited gov't and they don't care about me and my pissy little ideas about economic justice. These fascists have manipulated the more delusional religionists in the USA into working as their footsoldiers. In fact, they basically don't give a rats ass about them and their pissy little ideas about Jebus. The net result is I, Mr Socialist, actually find myself often AGREEING with Pat Buchanan, a circumstance I find VERY disturbing. Mr B and I (like you and I) would and SHOULD disagree about a variety of topics, but what you and I and Mr B (AND Gore Vidal AND Howard Zinn AND just about anyone with an IQ over room temperature) agree on is the utter evil that is this Administration.
When we get our country back, it will be nice to debate issues on their merits and from a point of rational analysis, rather than this contemptible situation of an incompetent bunch of fascists scuttling the American Project and thusly precluding any rational appraisal of reality.
Here's to being able to disagree with you! Cheers!
Trapped in heaven life style (locked in Lock Kesh)
Now looking out for pleasure (H-block torture)
It's at the end of the rainbow (White noise in)
The happy ever after (a white room)
Dirt behind the daydream
Dirt behind the daydream
The happy ever after
It's at the end of the rainbow
Dig at the root of the problem (Fly the flag on foreign soil)
It breaks your new dreams daily (H-block Lock Kesh)
Fathers contradictions (Censor six countries news)
And breaks your new dreams daily (each day more deaths)
Dirt behind the daydream
Dirt behind the daydream
The happy ever after
It's at the end of the rainbow
White noise in a white room
There may be oil under Rockall
The happy ever after
There may be oil under Rockall
It's corked up with the ether
I have an Amiga kicking around in the garage. Why? Because I put a Time Base Corrector (TBC) in it that strips out ALL macrovision and DRM - I get pure video signal. I might get $50 for the machine in a yard sale. But a TBC of the quality I installed in it? HA! We're talking at least $500. So, that obsolete cranky POS that sounds like a snoring pig at start up saves me Serious $$$. The floppy drive in it is marginal, the video card barely works, but the TBC keeps on ticking. So every Friday I rent a few videos, run them through the TBC to my OSX G5, and burn a DVD for future reference...
It's *just not worth the money*. There are (x) needs for movement outside the home. to list a few:
a. go to work
b. go to school
c. go to market (food, clothing, other mundanities)
d. go to cultural activity (art, music, religion, party, movies, restaurants, etc.)
How can the Segway get me to a/b/c/d faster than:
* walking
* driving
* bicycling
* public transport
the Segway is probably faster than walking. So, a/b are viable to the Segway vs. normally walking. However, shopping is right out - it has no trailer and you need both hands to control it. So you can't go shopping in a Segway. Going to cultural activities is usually done in pairs or groups. The Segway carries one, so it is marginally worse than walking to cultural activities, if walking is the normal method of getting to such activities.
If you normally drive to work or school, the Segway cannot compete in terms of speed, except in the narrow sense of inner city driving where cars are slow and parking is scarce. Otherwise, the Segway loses in every category. The AVERAGE cost of a car in the USA is $8000 per year. So, for $3k more, you get to blast down to the beach on a sunny day at 80mph.
If you normally bicycle to the above mentioned activities, the Segway also loses. Bicycles are easily fitted with pannier bags and trailers, so bicycles are easily outfitted for significant shopping. With an electric assist, similar to the segway, bicycles (as ebikes) can actually compete with automobiles, even in a number of suburban locales. A full on eBike (say, a decent bike converted to a Stokemonkey)with massive panniers and an extra seat for a kid is often less than $2000 - less than half of a Segway, and a damn sight faster as well (A stokemonkey can easily hit un-pedalled speeds of 20mph. Pedalling gets it up to 25 - 30mph). There are other conversion systems for ebikes: Cyclone for instance, and many many manufacturers are coming out with electric assist bikes.
So, the Segway is 50/50 versus walking, loses against a bike, doesn't hold a candle to a car. Now: Public transport.
Public transport works in a few modes: intra-urban transport (such as the NY City Subway or the SF Muni) inter-urban transport (the NJ/NY PATH train, or the SF Bay Area BART system) and inter-city transport (NJ Transit, LIRR, Amtrak near NYC or CalTran for the Bay Area). Obviously, if you're shlepping to NYC from Metuchen or SF from Palo Alto, you're NOT going to do it in a Segway. You'll take NJ Transit or CalTran. If you're going to NYC from Newark you'll take the PATH, Oakland to SF - BART. If you're going to Downtown from (NY) Upper West Side or (SF) Inner Sunset, you'll take public transport. Why? Because in NYC a Segway is TOO SLOW. In SF, you'll never get it past Twin Peaks. So, in these two (and common) examples, the Segway doesn't even hold its own against an even mediocre (MUNI) subway system.
As a consequence, the percieved value of a $5000 scooter (Segway) FAILS against the simple expediencies of Driving long distances, Biking shorter distances, commuting by public transport, and walking three blocks to get some beer and a pack of smokes.
Also, the Segway weighs about 33 kg. (IIRC). The average bike weighs about half that. The average eBike weighs 2/3s that, and goes 3x as fast and costs half as much. A Stokemonkey weighs as much as a Segway, but it's freakin' huge and is more of a slow green substitute for local automobile travel than a simple bike - it can carry a passenger and four sacks of groceries - AND go 2x as fast as a Segway. So, in every possible way, the Segway sucks. It's heavy, slow, has no capacity, and is 5/8 the cost of an average automobile. In other words: It's Useless.
Everyone did the same calculation all at once, and that's why the Segway failed. It was a bad idea with a mediocre execution.
Fact: TSA Screening hasn't done jack shit in stopping airline terrorism.
Fact: GOOD POLICE WORK AND CUSTOMS INSPECTION have prevented a number of plots from going forward.
Fact: The TSA is pure, unadulterated FASCIST BULLSHIT PR NONSENSE for people to think the.gov is actually doing something about terror. It is also a way for the Bush Administration to jerk people around with their idiotic colour coded terror alert system.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE!
RS
Beyond You Tube: Go Fish
on
Bob Saget 2.0
·
· Score: 1
You tube does tap into the "AFHV" vein. Go fish is tapping into a much more interesting conceptual space, where they ar edeveloping online Reality TV. Right now they have a thing called America's Dream Date. People are sending in videos to contend for the prize of going to Paris for a week.
Most of the videos suck. Most of them are
"Hi! My name is Bennifer and I have a great sense of humor, and like to have fun."
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZZ Z
But some are really amazing.
One woman talks about how a guy stole her suitcase, but it had a dead dog in it...
One guy is an elvis impersonator and a total nut.
There's a woman who is either the greatest actress I've ever seen, or, she has the WORST sense of self worth ever witnessed outside of a suicide hotline.
The range of other videos is much like YouTube, but this reality TV angle is really pretty interesting and innovative.
Oh man - that was cruel! No I have the image of our retarded warmongering president banging Goofy in the poop chute. Eeeeewwww!!! Brrrr!!!! Ack! That's just so freakin' nasty - you've got some penance to do for that one...
>I guess that depends upon whether you're essentially optimistic or pessimistic.
No - the optimist sees the glass half full, the pessimist sees the glass half empty. I see the glass as too large for its contents. I'm a realist.
>Assuming the human race face some sort of doomsday scenario (a rather large assumption)
One has to temper "doomsday" to "dooms-century", and then you get a better idea of what we're actually faced with. We can't go on populating the planet with people. The "end" won't be something that happens in an afternoon (film at 11), but more like this:
In 2006, gas is $3 a gallon. In 2010 it's $6 a gallon. By 2020 it's $30 a gallon, and the highways are going onto "deferred maintenance". In 2030, air travel is only permitted to the military and the ruling class. Most people, by this time, have moved closer to work and get around by electric bike or public transport. In the 2020s people hyper insulated their homes, and many are retrofitted to passive solar standards. In 2040, the remaining natural gas is devoted to fertiliser production. Private vehicles are few and extremely expensive. Due to a lack of asphalt, much of the interstate highway system is abandoned, as food production is highly localised and winter food is produced in back yard gardens. The highways are replaced with electric railroads. In 2050, the first fusion plant is constructed, but there isn't enough energy to build very many of them. They are used mostly to heat the Northeast USA and Canada.
By 2100 the loss of precious metals becomes acute. Gasoline can be found, but it is nearly $100 a gallon and is basically useless for the average citizen.
Now if we don't immediately change our ways, powerdown, and get with the ZPG ASAP:
By 2060, large portions of Africa and Asia go into full on Malthusian die off - the lack of and expense for fertiliser results in massive crop failures. The USA economy failed in the recession of 2007. Crushing debt left the US.gov into insolvency, resultign in a worldwide depression. This had the GOOD effect of demand destruction, and pushing out the depletion curve by 5 - 10 years. But when it was clear by 2020 that OPEC had been in depletion since 2015 and the "reserves" the Saudis said were there were actually bullshit, this double cratered the economies of the world, and pushed out the depletion curve even farther, so that consumption reflected depletion: 8% drops in GDP year over year, following the loss of the energy resource. The USA sells off its assets and the Empire collapses into a regional power.
China, having a top-down socialist system with a heavily regulated "free" enterprise system, began preparing for this disaster in 2005 and by 2025 was facing economic collapse, but not what Africa and parts of Asia were facing - a Malthusian die off from AIDS, starvation, desertification, and ruin.
Europe fared somewhat better - the Scandanavian countries saw this coming down the pike since 1998, and were largely petroleum free by 2025. Germany, France, and the UK fared less well, but had enough energy to develop systems of energy for survival.
By 2150, much of North America is deforested. The population of what was the USA and Canada stands at 200 milion and falling. The economy righted itself into an agrarian steady state system - similar to the 18th century, only with the benefit of Germ Theory, hygiene, modern dentistry, permacultural practices and other things that prevented a die off in North America. North America and Europe go into a "Die Down" - a gradual and natural loss of population.
Land fills and the cities (many of which are at that time underwater) are harvested for metals and glass. Coal in North America went into terminal decline in the 2040s, and the remaining deposits are used to make coke for recycling steel. Fusion plants continue to hum along, but by 2150, their upkeep becomes so expensive that they too begin to shut down. The internet disappears, and with it, the livi
Not to be a wet blanket, but: No. I really do wish we could go exploring the solar system - with giant spinning spaceships made of lead, titanium and steel. But it just isn't going to happen. We won't have the energy to get there. The USA going to the moon in the late 60s early 70s is the Modern equivalent of the Pyramids.
In 1970, USA oil extraction was at its peak. We had energy to burn, literally.
We're not going to put many more, if any, people on the moon - and we're not going to put people on Mars, and if we do, it will be much like the moon shot - a few people will go and then we'll give up. It's just not going to happen. More attention should be paid to how we're going to cook our dinners in 40 years, and how we're going to travel from point A to point B on this planet in 100 years. Remember: peak oil == peak asphalt. Peak Oil == Peak Fertiliser.
Expensive and tricky food, shattered roads - people starving the world over and stuck at home because the airlines are grounded from lack of kerosene, and the view will be "Some ninny wants to piss (X) jillions of watts away on building and sending some idiots to the moon.... sh'yeeeah riiiiight....I. Don't. Think. So."
Frankly, I would LOVE to see Moon mines for He3 and platinum and other precious ores. But I am fairly well convinced by the evidence that it just ain't gonna happen.
I don't see how the UI issues matter. I have work to do. If the UI does XYZ and I'm doing ABC, the UI is of no consequence. We regularly have idiotic flamewars here between people glued to CLI, and the zealots of GUI. Here it is, 2006, and I'm kicking builds in CLI using UNIX commands. I remember when the Mac came out all these CLI shitheads were barking "the Mac is a toy! REAL MEN use CLI and DOS!" Whatever. DOS bit the dust, and CLI is marginalised, but it hasn't disappeared because in specific ways, it's very useful. GUI was able to do 90% of what CLI did, and did it intuitively and easily. I don't see how these new UI innovations are going to improve on the work I do in a GUI in the same way the GUI improved on the CLI.
All that gestural stuff will make my work better exactly how? It's not gestural - it's just arm-waving of the "IN THE FUTURE..." variety.
HOWEVER: the I/O brush IS very k3wl. I can think of all kinds of fun stuff to do with that. It's an app, not a UI, but it's definitely fun.
Slashdot Mirror
HOWEVER I will cheerfully defend the rights of others to play them. It is imperative that the free thinking among us stand up against this rising tide of intolerance and cluelessness.
This election is 1858 all over again... Stand up against the theocracy. Stand up for your rights!
RS
Fixing Windows, doesn't.
RS
2. he doesn't show up an hour late for practice, completely drunk.
3. he doesn't ask stupid questions when the rest of the band gets into strategy and show planning.
4. he won't eat all th efood i nthe fridge at the band house.
5. he won't choke to death on someone else's vomit.
But if he is using Sony batteries, he might spontaneously combust...
RS
It's industrial civilisation's equivalent of the pyramids. Valuable at the time. But in the far distant future, they won't remember the asteroid we deflected in 2044. A weird result of a massive excess in resources, funds, and exuberance.
It's NOT the end of the world. It's just different.
Really. Different.
RS
Of the set of people who ever will travel in space, most of them already have.
I *completely* agree that fatalism is a Very Bad Thing. No argument from me in that regard. However: I do not see the disappearance of industrialism as Bad. Unfortunate, yes, but not "Bad".
Fusion will change things, IF it ever works. Unfortunately, the world is industrialising rapidly, and the fastest, surest way to do that is via petroleum. This results in an increased demand on an inherently limited resource. Resource extraction follows a kind of bell curve - oil, copper, whatever - its rises levels off, and then goes into depletion. You are correct *in theory* with your point about "primary energy". Given enough energy, we can pull huge quantities of metal out of seawater. What one would do with the resulting sludge is another matter, but in a reductivist view, yes: enough energy gives you everything you need.
However: there is this practical issue involved: time. We extract (x) amount of petroleum a day. There is only (Y) left. The rate of demand increases (D). As (x) decreases (viz hubbert curve) and D increases, prices skyrocket, and it becomes increasingly difficult to use the energy oen does have to prepare for a time when that energy source is gone.
A few factual points: You said "since oil is NOT used in asphalt & plastics because of it being an energy source.", you are completely incorrect. Plastics occupy a sizeable percentage of the petroleum pulled from the ground, as does the glop required for asphalt. From: Facts About Fossil Fuels
The oil refining process separates crude oil into different hydrocarbons and removes impurities such as sulfur, nitrogen, and heavy metals. The first step is fractional distillation, a process that takes advantage of the fact that different hydrocarbons boil at different temperatures. In a tall tower called a fractionating column, crude oil is heated until it boils. Horizontal trays divide the column at intervals. As the oil boils, it vaporizes. Each hydrocarbon rises to a tray at a temperature just below its own boiling point. There, it cools and turns back into a liquid.
The lightest fractions are liquefied petroleum gases (propane and butane) and the petrochemicals used to make plastics, fabrics, and a wide array of consumer products. Next come gasoline, kerosene, and diesel fuel. Heavier fractions make home heating oil and fuel for ships and factories. Still heavier fractions are made into lubricants and waxes. The remains include asphalt.
So: peak oil == peak asphalt. And peak Kerosene. And Peak plastics. and peak candles.
The other problem is this: our miraculous "Green Revolution" is predicated on natural gas in fertiliser. Peak Gas == peak fertiliser. No gas == Different Sources for fertiliser, none of which as rich and intense as the stuff we get from below.
I am *not* a doomer. You want a doomer? Jay Hanson fits the bill nicely. I am actually a very positive person on this. What I am opposed to is the delusional thinking of the techno-positivist cornucopians. There is no magic energy faerie that is going to save this wasteful stupid lifestyle. Exponential population growth Will Stop. It's not a question of IF, it's merely a matter of When and How. Resource depletion will not continue indefinitely. Again: not a question of IF, just a matter of When and How.
Since it cannot be avoided, the question is, "how do we get from here to there?"
You wrote:
I tell you what I think will happen: alternative energies, regionalized energy production, ecologically neutral cities designed for walking & biking will boom. Cars will be used less (no point to drive much in a city anyway) and move to ethanol, liquified coal, hydrogen, or even batteries/supercapacitors. Yes, the transition phase will be hard. Population growth will slow down, if not stop. But the outcome could actually be BETTER than today's world.
No, it's real.
Why can't we use nuclear power?
Sure we can use nuclear power. But nuclear power won't fertilise your crops, paint your house, wash your hair, or make your meds. Furthermore, nuclear power is based on a limited resource: uranium. Its extraction will also hit a peak, and then its production will also drive down in quanitity and up in expense.
And hopefully by the time uranium starts to run out we'll have fusion.
fusion won't make your meds, fertilise your crops, or wash your hair. It might keep the lights on. For a while. Sorry: there is no technological energy fairy to solve the problem of exponential population growth. The population MUST subside. It can do it voluntarily by having fewer children or involuntarily through disease, warfare, and/or starvation. don;t like that? Tough.
And yeah it's getting harder to mine copper and other resources, but the stuff we've already mined is still around.
And it is oxidising quickly. Deoxidising takes a lot of energy. Energy we don't have. Also, the demand for these metals continues to explode with the population. A population we can no longer feed.
Hopefully someone will come up with a plastic pipe that doesn't suck so we won't have to use copper pipe any more.
Peak oil == peak plastic.
Peak oil == peak asphalt.
Peak oil == peak energy.
After petroleum's one-time gift of stored solar energy, and the rapid depletion of fissionable materials, we'll be back to a solar economy. The industrial period will go down in history like the myth of Atlantis. As I said: We Are Atlantis.
RS
That's what they've been saying for the past 25, 50, 100 years...
Face it: it ain't gonna happen. It's no big deal. The hard part is giving up the Star Trek techno-masturbation fantasy. Once you dispense with that, the future looks a good bit grimmer, but much more colourful and interesting.
RS
Hmmm... Well, let's tackle the AI thing.
AI = Human Intelligence isn't going to happen. Ever. You might be able to get a machine that can take as many input data points as the human brain, and get it to execute as many data output points as the brain, but that's not intelligence. That's I/O and there's a big fat difference.
Security won't exist. Really? So if some asshat barges into my house I won't be able to pound his skull to a bloody pulp with my baseball bat? Ooooh- we're talking computer security? Well who ever promised computer security in the first place? If it's a transmissable dataset, it can be recieved, re-routed, intercepted and decoded, given enough time and resources, and that's today. There never WAS any computer security, so his argument is a strawman.
Thirdly, he didn't say where the energy is going to come for all this.
Fact: Kuwaits largest oilfield peaked last November.
Fact: The Saudi's largest field (Ghawar) is puming between 30 and 50% seawater. They haven't announced that it is in decline, because it would set off international freak-out alarm bells, but everyone in the general know KNOWS that the Saudis are cooking the books and are at or close to peak.
Fact: Americans continue to consume VAST quantities of energy and piss it away on trivial bullshit - from personal nonsense (like cellphones, gameboys, Xbox, rotisserie ovens, etc.) to larger potlach level wastes (like Las Vegas), and NONE of it is sustainable. Period.
Fact: Besides energy rapidly approaching a massive down curve, we also rapidly approach the peaking and imminent depletion of our metals. Copper ore averages 5%. Phosphorus, chromium and magnesium production peaked years ago.
His unadulterated adulation of Star Trek only serves to underline his chronic case of cranio-rectal inversion.
Industrial Civilisation is (slowly) drawing to a close. It's not the end, yet, but in about 15 years, we'll be able to see it from there. After that, it is back to the land and farming. Forever. We Are Atlantis.
RS
Yes. PS CS2 is light years better than 5.5 for the imaging professional.
How?
Well, two things that make my life MUCH easier:
1. The Shadow enhance thingie. You can use it to bring out details in a shadowed area. If used badly, it looks like crap, but it can really make or break a photo. Awesome tool.
2. The Healing Tool. It's kind of like the clone tool, but much more sophisticated. I have used it countless times to "fix" a face.
Those are only 2 minor things that are big BIG pluses for me. There are bigger things, but I'm pressed for time right now. I could go on and on, but seriously: Photoshop CS2 is WAY better than 5.5.
RS
The RIAA will have a hard time beating an MP3 LAN party....
RS
However, at least a few F-14s will continue to fly for a few more years: Iran -- which took delivery of 79 aircraft before the overthrow of the Shah -- still flies the plane, though only a small number (perhaps ten or twenty) are believed to still be in service due to a lack of spare parts and attrition."
Ehhh- our Feeerlez Leedor and his evil Evil EVIL minions will likely destroy those jets on November 8th.
RS
What do you call a bus full of lawyers careening off a cliff?
A Good Start.
RS
RS
Telemarketer (T): Hello Mr Spoilsport may I call you Ralph?
RS: I own you...
T: Sorry?
RS: I own your soul...
T: You own what?
RS: I am Sataaan... I know you to the Soooooul... You are mine....
T: May I interest you in (product)?
RS: Come to Sataaaaan... Come to me.... You are mine... I own your soul...
T: (Agitated) Does this sound like something you might be interested in?
RS: Come to Sataaaan... I own your soul... You will rot in hell with me.... Come to me...
etc.
Once this black woman called and I did the Satan routine and she FREAKED OUT. She started crying and hung up. I scored 30 points for that.
Another favourite tack on these creatures:
RS: WHAT?
T: Hello? Is this Mr Spoilsport?
RS: FUCK YOU!
T: What?
RS: FUCK YOU AND YOUR WHORE OF A MOTHER WHO IS SUCKING MY COCK RIGHT NOW YOU SCUM SUCKING PIECE OF SHIT!
(click)
I get 20 points for that - It's a brute force approach. It's not that creative and it's kind of mean, so you only get 20 points for it.
Also: there's the classic:
RS: Bobo!
T: Hello? Is this Mr Spoilsport?
RS: Yabba! Tengo bleck nock! Curby flipwitters!
T: Do you speak English?
RS: Me me me speak English!
T: Would you be interested in (product pitch)?
RS: Ama watamela eatie foo!
T: What?
RS: yumma cunt swabber! Peenie drip bubby! Yumma buttlicker!
T: What?
RS: shibby shops! Peeface! Yabba Peeface!
etc. If yo ucan get them to hang up, you get 40 points, because talking like an idiot with a straight face long enough to get them to hang up is pretty hard.
Then there's always:
RS: Yes...
T: hi is this mr Spoilsport?
RS: What's it to you, motherfucker?
T: Sorry?
RS: I'm coming to your house, and I'm going to kill all your pets.
etc. whatever tey say, just march over it and make weid fucked up pseudo threats, like "I'll steal all your garbage" or "I'll pee in your garden" or "I'll get your dog knocked up" etc.
Telemarketers were put on this earth to be abused.
RS
This is unbelievable, even in this administration where sadly, one has come to expect this type of mentality. BTW - Let me say that I am a registered Republican before I get flamed by all the NeoCons.
That you are a registered republican, I find forgiveable. What you (Mr Republican) and I (Mr Socialist) have in common is this: we believe in the rule of law and the government as a utility for positive public policy. You and I can (and will) disagree with a WIDE range of what the .gov should or should not do. And as far as I am concerned: that's OK. That's what makes America great.
But what has happened is very sad: the Republican party has been largely hijacked by (for want of a better word) fascists. They don't care about you and your pissy little ideas about limited gov't and they don't care about me and my pissy little ideas about economic justice. These fascists have manipulated the more delusional religionists in the USA into working as their footsoldiers. In fact, they basically don't give a rats ass about them and their pissy little ideas about Jebus. The net result is I, Mr Socialist, actually find myself often AGREEING with Pat Buchanan, a circumstance I find VERY disturbing. Mr B and I (like you and I) would and SHOULD disagree about a variety of topics, but what you and I and Mr B (AND Gore Vidal AND Howard Zinn AND just about anyone with an IQ over room temperature) agree on is the utter evil that is this Administration.
When we get our country back, it will be nice to debate issues on their merits and from a point of rational analysis, rather than this contemptible situation of an incompetent bunch of fascists scuttling the American Project and thusly precluding any rational appraisal of reality.
Here's to being able to disagree with you! Cheers!
RS
Ether
by the Gang of Four
Trapped in heaven life style (locked in Lock Kesh)
Now looking out for pleasure (H-block torture)
It's at the end of the rainbow (White noise in)
The happy ever after (a white room)
Dirt behind the daydream
Dirt behind the daydream
The happy ever after
It's at the end of the rainbow
Dig at the root of the problem (Fly the flag on foreign soil)
It breaks your new dreams daily (H-block Lock Kesh)
Fathers contradictions (Censor six countries news)
And breaks your new dreams daily (each day more deaths)
Dirt behind the daydream
Dirt behind the daydream
The happy ever after
It's at the end of the rainbow
White noise in a white room
There may be oil under Rockall
The happy ever after
There may be oil under Rockall
It's corked up with the ether
RS
And THAT'S how it's done.
RS
It's *just not worth the money*. There are (x) needs for movement outside the home. to list a few:
a. go to work
b. go to school
c. go to market (food, clothing, other mundanities)
d. go to cultural activity (art, music, religion, party, movies, restaurants, etc.)
How can the Segway get me to a/b/c/d faster than:
* walking
* driving
* bicycling
* public transport
the Segway is probably faster than walking. So, a/b are viable to the Segway vs. normally walking. However, shopping is right out - it has no trailer and you need both hands to control it. So you can't go shopping in a Segway. Going to cultural activities is usually done in pairs or groups. The Segway carries one, so it is marginally worse than walking to cultural activities, if walking is the normal method of getting to such activities.
If you normally drive to work or school, the Segway cannot compete in terms of speed, except in the narrow sense of inner city driving where cars are slow and parking is scarce. Otherwise, the Segway loses in every category. The AVERAGE cost of a car in the USA is $8000 per year. So, for $3k more, you get to blast down to the beach on a sunny day at 80mph.
If you normally bicycle to the above mentioned activities, the Segway also loses. Bicycles are easily fitted with pannier bags and trailers, so bicycles are easily outfitted for significant shopping. With an electric assist, similar to the segway, bicycles (as ebikes) can actually compete with automobiles, even in a number of suburban locales. A full on eBike (say, a decent bike converted to a Stokemonkey)with massive panniers and an extra seat for a kid is often less than $2000 - less than half of a Segway, and a damn sight faster as well (A stokemonkey can easily hit un-pedalled speeds of 20mph. Pedalling gets it up to 25 - 30mph). There are other conversion systems for ebikes: Cyclone for instance, and many many manufacturers are coming out with electric assist bikes.
So, the Segway is 50/50 versus walking, loses against a bike, doesn't hold a candle to a car. Now: Public transport.
Public transport works in a few modes: intra-urban transport (such as the NY City Subway or the SF Muni) inter-urban transport (the NJ/NY PATH train, or the SF Bay Area BART system) and inter-city transport (NJ Transit, LIRR, Amtrak near NYC or CalTran for the Bay Area). Obviously, if you're shlepping to NYC from Metuchen or SF from Palo Alto, you're NOT going to do it in a Segway. You'll take NJ Transit or CalTran. If you're going to NYC from Newark you'll take the PATH, Oakland to SF - BART. If you're going to Downtown from (NY) Upper West Side or (SF) Inner Sunset, you'll take public transport. Why? Because in NYC a Segway is TOO SLOW. In SF, you'll never get it past Twin Peaks. So, in these two (and common) examples, the Segway doesn't even hold its own against an even mediocre (MUNI) subway system.
As a consequence, the percieved value of a $5000 scooter (Segway) FAILS against the simple expediencies of Driving long distances, Biking shorter distances, commuting by public transport, and walking three blocks to get some beer and a pack of smokes.
Also, the Segway weighs about 33 kg. (IIRC). The average bike weighs about half that. The average eBike weighs 2/3s that, and goes 3x as fast and costs half as much. A Stokemonkey weighs as much as a Segway, but it's freakin' huge and is more of a slow green substitute for local automobile travel than a simple bike - it can carry a passenger and four sacks of groceries - AND go 2x as fast as a Segway. So, in every possible way, the Segway sucks. It's heavy, slow, has no capacity, and is 5/8 the cost of an average automobile. In other words: It's Useless.
Everyone did the same calculation all at once, and that's why the Segway failed. It was a bad idea with a mediocre execution.
Now - get off your ass and walk.
RS
Fact: GOOD POLICE WORK AND CUSTOMS INSPECTION have prevented a number of plots from going forward.
Fact: The TSA is pure, unadulterated FASCIST BULLSHIT PR NONSENSE for people to think the .gov is actually doing something about terror. It is also a way for the Bush Administration to jerk people around with their idiotic colour coded terror alert system.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE!
RS
Most of the videos suck. Most of them are
"Hi! My name is Bennifer and I have a great sense of humor, and like to have fun."
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZZ Z
But some are really amazing.
One woman talks about how a guy stole her suitcase, but it had a dead dog in it...
One guy is an elvis impersonator and a total nut.
There's a woman who is either the greatest actress I've ever seen, or, she has the WORST sense of self worth ever witnessed outside of a suicide hotline.
The range of other videos is much like YouTube, but this reality TV angle is really pretty interesting and innovative.
check it out.
GO FISH
RS
no - I don't work there or hav stock in it - I just think it's weird.
RS
Pluto downgraded. President still fucking Goofy.
Oh man - that was cruel! No I have the image of our retarded warmongering president banging Goofy in the poop chute. Eeeeewwww!!! Brrrr!!!! Ack! That's just so freakin' nasty - you've got some penance to do for that one...
best,
RS
>I guess that depends upon whether you're essentially optimistic or pessimistic.
No - the optimist sees the glass half full, the pessimist sees the glass half empty. I see the glass as too large for its contents. I'm a realist.
>Assuming the human race face some sort of doomsday scenario (a rather large assumption)
One has to temper "doomsday" to "dooms-century", and then you get a better idea of what we're actually faced with. We can't go on populating the planet with people. The "end" won't be something that happens in an afternoon (film at 11), but more like this:
In 2006, gas is $3 a gallon. In 2010 it's $6 a gallon. By 2020 it's $30 a gallon, and the highways are going onto "deferred maintenance". In 2030, air travel is only permitted to the military and the ruling class. Most people, by this time, have moved closer to work and get around by electric bike or public transport. In the 2020s people hyper insulated their homes, and many are retrofitted to passive solar standards. In 2040, the remaining natural gas is devoted to fertiliser production. Private vehicles are few and extremely expensive. Due to a lack of asphalt, much of the interstate highway system is abandoned, as food production is highly localised and winter food is produced in back yard gardens. The highways are replaced with electric railroads. In 2050, the first fusion plant is constructed, but there isn't enough energy to build very many of them. They are used mostly to heat the Northeast USA and Canada.
By 2100 the loss of precious metals becomes acute. Gasoline can be found, but it is nearly $100 a gallon and is basically useless for the average citizen.
Now if we don't immediately change our ways, powerdown, and get with the ZPG ASAP:
By 2060, large portions of Africa and Asia go into full on Malthusian die off - the lack of and expense for fertiliser results in massive crop failures. The USA economy failed in the recession of 2007. Crushing debt left the US.gov into insolvency, resultign in a worldwide depression. This had the GOOD effect of demand destruction, and pushing out the depletion curve by 5 - 10 years. But when it was clear by 2020 that OPEC had been in depletion since 2015 and the "reserves" the Saudis said were there were actually bullshit, this double cratered the economies of the world, and pushed out the depletion curve even farther, so that consumption reflected depletion: 8% drops in GDP year over year, following the loss of the energy resource. The USA sells off its assets and the Empire collapses into a regional power.
China, having a top-down socialist system with a heavily regulated "free" enterprise system, began preparing for this disaster in 2005 and by 2025 was facing economic collapse, but not what Africa and parts of Asia were facing - a Malthusian die off from AIDS, starvation, desertification, and ruin.
Europe fared somewhat better - the Scandanavian countries saw this coming down the pike since 1998, and were largely petroleum free by 2025. Germany, France, and the UK fared less well, but had enough energy to develop systems of energy for survival.
By 2150, much of North America is deforested. The population of what was the USA and Canada stands at 200 milion and falling. The economy righted itself into an agrarian steady state system - similar to the 18th century, only with the benefit of Germ Theory, hygiene, modern dentistry, permacultural practices and other things that prevented a die off in North America. North America and Europe go into a "Die Down" - a gradual and natural loss of population.
Land fills and the cities (many of which are at that time underwater) are harvested for metals and glass. Coal in North America went into terminal decline in the 2040s, and the remaining deposits are used to make coke for recycling steel. Fusion plants continue to hum along, but by 2150, their upkeep becomes so expensive that they too begin to shut down. The internet disappears, and with it, the livi
In 1970, USA oil extraction was at its peak. We had energy to burn, literally.
We're not going to put many more, if any, people on the moon - and we're not going to put people on Mars, and if we do, it will be much like the moon shot - a few people will go and then we'll give up. It's just not going to happen. More attention should be paid to how we're going to cook our dinners in 40 years, and how we're going to travel from point A to point B on this planet in 100 years. Remember: peak oil == peak asphalt. Peak Oil == Peak Fertiliser.
Expensive and tricky food, shattered roads - people starving the world over and stuck at home because the airlines are grounded from lack of kerosene, and the view will be "Some ninny wants to piss (X) jillions of watts away on building and sending some idiots to the moon.... sh'yeeeah riiiiight....I. Don't. Think. So."
Frankly, I would LOVE to see Moon mines for He3 and platinum and other precious ores. But I am fairly well convinced by the evidence that it just ain't gonna happen.
RS
All that gestural stuff will make my work better exactly how? It's not gestural - it's just arm-waving of the "IN THE FUTURE..." variety.
HOWEVER: the I/O brush IS very k3wl. I can think of all kinds of fun stuff to do with that. It's an app, not a UI, but it's definitely fun.
RS