Ask Nicholas Petreley About Linux Usage Statistics

First Post by MooseGuy529 · 2003-03-17 06:32 · Score: 4, Interesting

What is the biggest hurdle, in your opinion, for Linux to be on everyone's desktop?

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Re:First Post by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:37 · Score: 0, Offtopic

stability, of course.

N.P.
Re:First Post by PD · 2003-03-17 06:55 · Score: 2, Funny

I agree. The desk must be very sturdy.

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Re:First Post by Anonvmous+Coward · 2003-03-17 07:09 · Score: 1

"What is the biggest hurdle, in your opinion, for Linux to be on everyone's desktop?"

My PC game library.
Re:First Post by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:38 · Score: 2, Informative

How about if it didn't look like shit. That picture's just one example of the kind of screenshots Linux fans get all excited over (although they're usually a little less colourful than that and with far more ugly flashing lights and terminal windows). Can't you see that it's ugly? Look at the icons -- the spacing is wrong, the font is wrong. Look at the small, unlabeled buttons in the web browser. See the way the bar at the bottom doesn't fill the screen, yet feels the need to duplicate icons from the desktop. That wouldn't be so bad, but it leaves barely any space for the taskbar (with the app titles). Look at the titles of the sections on that page showing in the web browser? They're screwed up and squished. Look at the huge number of pointless menus and other assorted bits everywhere, and compare it to the amount of completely empty unused space. Minimalism in buttons and clickable things (not necessarily in graphical design) is better -- for example, Windows XP's Recycle-Bin-only-by-default desktop and customisable Start menu. I won't even start on the time I tried to change the positions and groups of apps around on the KDE and Gnome graphical menus. No drag-and-drop? No right-click? But I'm getting off the point, so I'll stop. To conclude: Linux distros, especially their GUIs, are big, ugly, slow and needlessly complicated. That's why Linux is not yet ready for the desktop.
Re:First Post by pdbogen · 2003-03-17 07:51 · Score: 1

WineX
Re:First Post by pdbogen · 2003-03-17 08:07 · Score: 2, Informative

Now that's just unfair.
Just because you can't figure out how to customize your X window manager doesn't mean we should condemn the kernel that it happens to run on. If nothing else, XPDE. The default Gnome/Sawfish desktop has three icons. One is a shortcut to your home directory under Nautilus (read: A file manager superior to explorer), one is your recycle bin/trashcan/what-have-you, and the third is something I don't remember that I always delete.

If you increases resolution to something reasonable, it's not "screwed up and squished." Plus install your 100-dpi fonts, and you're good to go.

FWIW, I hate the Windows Start Menu. Ever seen the Programs folder for someone who's used their computer for a year, but doesn't meticulously sort it every month or so? Can we say, "A list of meaningless drivel that takes up two thirds of the screen"?

To refute your conclusion:
A debian netinstall bootstrap takes up about 70MB.
My kernel (after a run through make menuconfig) boots in 23 seconds.

I can't say it's not complicated, but let's imagine two linked slider bars: At one end is complication and Custimzability, at the other end is Simplification and Let-Me-Do-It-For-You

Linux makes up for it. That's what the community is for. Windows community? Heh.
Re:First Post by Junks+Jerzey · 2003-03-17 09:12 · Score: 2, Insightful

What is the biggest hurdle, in your opinion, for Linux to be on everyone's desktop?

Yes, yes, yes, I am going to be marked as a troll. Sigh.

Ask yourself this question: "Why should Linux be on everyone's desktop?" The usual reasons are (1) that it's open source and (2) that it's more secure than Windows. Those are legitimate points; many other such arguments are more vague and harder to objectively back-up. But even though those points are good, is this a legitimate basis for making the Linux kernel + X11 + KDE + GNU tools a desktop standard? It's still a configuration nightmare, it's still a very complex system, it's still rooted in old tech and very slow to move forward (witness any discussion about getting rid of X11, for example). At the same time, lightweight mobile systems have getting very popular and are making do without most of the baggage that Linux and Windows bring along. At some point, something like "Palm on your desktop" isn't going to be such a bad idea.

I'm not anti-Linux or Windows by any means, but they're both lumbering behemoths from another age. Maybe they're good for some uses, but as a desktop standard? It's time to move on.
Re:First Post by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 10:38 · Score: 0

Just because you can't figure out how to customize your X window manager doesn't mean we should condemn the kernel that it happens to run on.
Why doesn't it come configured half-decently to begin with?
Nautilus (read: A file manager superior to explorer)
*Cough* *choke* *splutter* uh... no. Nautilus is slow as hell, even compared to the monstrosity that is Explorer.
If you increases resolution to something reasonable, it's not "screwed up and squished." Plus install your 100-dpi fonts, and you're good to go.
Then why doesn't it come like that -- with the proper resolution and decent fonts?
Ever seen the Programs folder for someone who's used their computer for a year, but doesn't meticulously sort it every month or so? Can we say, "A list of meaningless drivel that takes up two thirds of the screen"?
Ever tried to customise the damn KDE/Gnome/BlackBox whatever menus? That'll take up a good third of your day, and then some stupid half-assed automation attempt will screw it up again. I've never liked the Windows tendency to group things like "Programs->Manufacturer->App Name->Bunch of useless icons, with one for the actual program", but it beats trying to figure out the difference between "System->Control Panel->Settings", "Control->Settings->Configure", "Administration->Settings->Control" and the huge number of other ill-described choices Linux GUIs give you.
A debian netinstall bootstrap takes up about 70MB. My kernel (after a run through make menuconfig) boots in 23 seconds.
I once got Slackware working very well in less than that, but neither system is exactly ready for the desktop -- Debian is, if anything, even harder to install. You're right, though, that I shouldn't blame the kernel, as the kernel is damn good for servers (witness Google). When I say 'Linux' I mean the Linux distro, marketed to people as a 'desktop-ready' and 'user-friendly' Windows-replacement when it absolutely is not.
let's imagine two linked slider bars: At one end is complication and Custimzability, at the other end is Simplification and Let-Me-Do-It-For-You.
The thing with this is: Windows lets you have the simplification day-to-day if you're lazy or if you're just not good with computers, and has plenty of customisation and complication available for those who want it. With Linux, it's always complicated, even when it tries to fool you into thinking it should be simple.
Re:First Post by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 11:08 · Score: 0

doesn't even come close to being a cure-all. It doesn't run a overwhelming chunk of games, and some great, but lesser-known, titles aren't supported at all.

Thanks, but I'll just double boot until we can convince people to develope games for linux proper.
Re:First Post by MooseGuy529 · 2003-03-18 03:35 · Score: 1

Sorry to reply to my own post.

Go to hell you bastards who modded me Troll. It was a perfectly good question.

(Yes, I do have something useful to say.)

I do agree that over-complication has really made Linux hard. When I run one of the loopbacking distros on my Windows system, the prospect of adding software is just horrific, since you have to compile it, blah blah blah...

If Linux people took a clue from Microsoft and made an more organized directory structure (I'm a newb, I probably just haven't noticed) that contains binaries for each program, and created a special archive-installer that checks for a script to install stuff, so you just download whatever.tar.gz and tell it to install and it finds the install script and runs it.

Also, I have a gigantic idea that probably won't work. Someone should create a cross-platform, XML-driven driver format so you don't end up with piles of useless hardware since it only works on Windows.

Thanks for listening. --MooseGuy529

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Re:First Post by 42forty-two42 · 2003-03-18 06:01 · Score: 1

Just because you can't figure out how to customize your X window manager doesn't mean we should condemn the kernel that it happens to run on.

Why doesn't it come configured half-decently to begin with?

The programmers aren't mind-readers. They don't know what you want.

If you increases resolution to something reasonable, it's not "screwed up and squished." Plus install your 100-dpi fonts, and you're good to go.

Then why doesn't it come like that -- with the proper resolution and decent fonts?

You chose the resolution - you deal with it. It's one of the questions in the X configuration. And, at least for me, the fonts came with it.

let's imagine two linked slider bars: At one end is complication and Custimzability, at the other end is Simplification and Let-Me-Do-It-For-You.

The thing with this is: Windows lets you have the simplification day-to-day if you're lazy or if you're just not good with computers, and has plenty of customisation and complication available for those who want it. With Linux, it's always complicated, even when it tries to fool you into thinking it should be simple.

Most window managers have a wizard to set the desktop - KDE, for example, can be easily set to mimic windows. If your distro dosen't show you that, use another.
Re:First Post by arvindn · 2003-03-18 06:20 · Score: 1

Whenever someone brings up that old old troll about X11 being obsolete, my bogometer shoots up to 10. What the hell do you mean, X11 is old? ASCII is old too, have you stopped using ASCII? X11 is beautifully designed. Its extensibility insures it against becoming outdated for a long time to come. In the last few years it has patched almost all of its desktop related weaknesses, like antialiasing and sound. Its network transparency is extremely useful. I can't live without it for a day. Bloat used to be an issue 10 years ago, but has long ceased to be the case. I can't imagine what the hordes of *X sucks* trolls get out of it.
As for your question "why should linux be on the desktop", I'll give you my reason. I've written an app or three for *nix, and if linux finds its way to more desktops I'll have more people running what I wrote and it brings a smile to my face. So it is in my interest to fight against the FUD and help linux get to as many desktops as possible. You are, of course, free to run whatever you like.
Re:First Post by mAineAc · 2003-03-24 07:04 · Score: 1

Hmm I have two young children who use linux daily and they can do everything you are saying is troublesome. I believe that if young children who don't have a clue about computers can use a linux desktop without problems then a person who has had at least enough of an education to work in an office should be able to handle it. Now perhaps at their 7th and 8th grade levels they are beyond what is taught in an office these days. The main problem with people using an open source desktop is not teh fact that it is any harder. The problem is that it is different to some degree. within a few minutes of playing around I can get a kde desktop that looks and works remarkably like windows. Does that mean that is the answer? No, not at all. The big thing is the ability to be able to customize the desktop to fit the person and once people realize how simple it actually is and stop listening to people who had a hard time learning how to tie their shows telling them how hard it is, then more people will likely come to it. The problem also stems from customability. The more customizable a desktop is the more complicated it becomes. You are right on the point about making the default desktop a little more appealing in some cases. The thing is some people actually like the look of the desktop the way that you dislike it. Have you ever gone to a French neighborhood and experienced the brightly colored houses in some places in Canada? Nothing wrong with it at all it is just a matter of taste, but in most anglo saxon households you will like see a much less colorful bunch of brown tans and whites. Does it make one better than the other absolutely not. I think Lindows is coming very close to a desktop that someone simple would like. But for those that like it colorful there are an abundance of choices to choose from to make a desktop that the person would like. If you want simple try blackbox or fluxbox. you can't get much simpler and the speed will blow you away.
Re:First Post by Dakkus · 2003-03-24 07:39 · Score: 1

I do agree that over-complication has really made Linux hard. When I run one of the loopbacking distros on my Windows system, the prospect of adding software is just horrific, since you have to compile it, blah blah blah...

"apt-get install programname" is hard? IMO it's harder when you must actually go to internet and download the program, then double click this and that and click next next.
Of course installing programs can also be done graphically by opening the program installation program and selecting the program from the list, then double clicking the program you want to install and tzadamm - it get's the program from internet and installs it.

If Linux people took a clue from Microsoft and made an more organized directory structure (I'm a newb, I probably just haven't noticed) that contains binaries for each program, and created a special archive-installer that checks for a script to install stuff, so you just download whatever.tar.gz and tell it to install and it finds the install script and runs it.

This is what dpkg and RPM do :)
Also, I have a gigantic idea that probably won't work. Someone should create a cross-platform, XML-driven driver format so you don't end up with piles of useless hardware since it only works on Windows.
Yup.It won't work. Programming drivers is much more complicated than just saying "I'm a driver."
The code is operating system specific. What you just requested was that the drivers would be compiled every time you want to install them.

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Re:First Post by JJahn · 2003-03-26 15:02 · Score: 1

Biggest hurdle IMO is games. In fact thats the only reason linux is not my primary desktop OS. Yes I have it on my desktop, but no I barely ever use it. I have Gentoo (which I love) customized, with KDE looking beautifully with awesome fonts and a great office program (openoffice)...but most games I play don't run on Linux. And don't tell me WineX, tried it, pain in the ass to get running right, and it was too slow for me to justify not using Win2000. Of course on the server end, I love linux, use it every time I can :)

My question by damu · 2003-03-17 06:33 · Score: 5, Interesting

Do you think statistics are nothing more of a marketing tool, and should the open source community use these numbers (usually squeued) to get some leverage when promoting open source alternatives to the higher ups?

dam()

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Re:My question by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:26 · Score: 0

squeued

Before some other hapless Slashdotter wastes endless seconds of productivity trying to decipher the parent: I believe damu meant skewed.

The real questions are by intermodal · 2003-03-17 06:34 · Score: 0, Flamebait

Will microsoft lose share, and where

Where will linux gain share

is this just counting paying users or just estimates for desktop users

does this anticipate growth in bsd and osx use as well

Will this kill Palladium's potential integration into hardware

can they foresee an end to the Microsoft Tax

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Re:The real questions are by garcia · 2003-03-17 06:44 · Score: 1

Will microsoft lose share, and where

He is a SuSE person, he is not an analyst for MS or some other company. He's not going to be able to give more than a slightly educated guess (of which we have already heard plenty of)

Where will linux gain share

Server market as it has been, and SuSE *hopes* the desktop.

can they foresee an end to the Microsoft Tax

No.

your other questions are irrelevant.
Re:The real questions are by Xsh-II · 2003-03-17 06:45 · Score: 0

The Palladium issue is what I see bringing most desktop users to Linux from Windows, but even as a Linux desktop user myself, I can say that Linux isnt ready for every users desktop. The only way it will be is to have the whole of applications like MS Office running on Linux as well as gaming much improved.

I think that if MacOS was released for x86 far more users would decide that MacOS is what they want for their desktop over Linux.

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Re:The real questions are by intermodal · 2003-03-17 06:49 · Score: 1

irrelevant to you perhaps. It is ignorant to ignore the rest of the questions i have listed. Irrelevant to the interviewee perhaps as well. But overall, the OS market determines what the IT/MIS/CS crowd needs to know. Status Quo is not the end-all be-all, and never will be, even if linux were at 90% it would not stay there forever. It is not unreasonable to ask where ones industry is going.

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Re:The real questions are by frankthechicken · 2003-03-17 06:49 · Score: 2, Interesting

Or how about an alternative perspective.

Will Linux lose market share, especially in its server status?

Does this anticipate growth in Microsoft based servers?

Will this further Palladium's potential integration into hardware?

Can they forsee an end to when Linux will lose it's ability to continue as free software?
Re:The real questions are by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:51 · Score: 0

he's a sales person, he's going to tout SuSE and he's going to know little about the other issues.
Re:The real questions are by Sgs-Cruz · 2003-03-17 06:58 · Score: 2, Funny

That post looks like it could be sung out loud.
Will microsoft lose share, and where
Where will linux gain share
...
Will this kill Palladium's potential integration into hardware
Put that to a catchy techno beat and boom, you've got a musical Slashdot story.

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Re:The real questions are by intermodal · 2003-03-17 06:58 · Score: 1

That is irrelevant to my post. my post, to paraphrase, is "this doesn't answer the real questions". Where SuSE is going has some bearing on the directions linux will go, but it doesn't answer the surrounding issues that are vital to what does end up actually happening.

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Linux announcements from big companies... by L0stb0Y · 2003-03-17 06:35 · Score: 5, Interesting

Do you see announcements from heavy hitters (like Dell, IBM, etc) helping sway more 'desktop users' to switching to Linux?

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Re:Linux announcements from big companies... by intermodal · 2003-03-17 06:42 · Score: 2, Insightful

The truth of the matter is, linux users these days install it themselves. even if i recieved a preinstalled linux box, i would reinstall, repartition, etc. Plus everyone likes a different distro.

I will admit for used machines I am a bit more lax...I booted into a box i was given once with a floppy and changed the password for root, and kept running the Mandrake 5.1 install it had because he had done a beautiful job tweaking his samba settings. If they offered such services as good service tweaking etc. instead of a default install, I think they would see better results selling linux desktops.

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Re:Linux announcements from big companies... by Drakonite · 2003-03-17 07:16 · Score: 1

The truth of the matter is, linux users these days install it themselves. even if i recieved a preinstalled linux box, i would reinstall, repartition, etc. Plus everyone likes a different distro.
Linux users USED to install it themselves. But we are moving into an era of desktop acceptance. One of the key points in being on the desktop is being able to be used by those users that don't know the difference between MB and GB let alone know how to partition a hard drive.
I've set up two linux systems for friends in the past 6 months. One of them will probably use it for 6 to 8 months and then reinstall with a different distro, the other will be using the same linux setup for as long as he has that computer.
We can't truly say linux is ready for the mainstream desktop until we reach a point where people don't have to install it themselves.

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Re:Linux announcements from big companies... by intermodal · 2003-03-17 07:25 · Score: 1

they don't /have/ to. its just simply that most Linux users /do/. Mandrake is second easiset OS i have ever installed, behind BeOS DevEd 1.1. so that is not the barrier.

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Your Bias by FortKnox · 2003-03-17 06:36 · Score: 5, Interesting

Obviously you are biased to Linux. My question is do you use Windows? Honestly, I have a hard time believing statistics from a one sided person. So if you use Windows as much as Linux and see the pluses to both operating systems, then I'm more likely to take what you say seriously.

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Re:Your Bias by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:48 · Score: 0

I dunno.

Does windows run KDE?

(Aside: Yes, I know it does. For reference see his "Has Gnome become LAME" article)
Re:Your Bias by The+Bungi · 2003-03-17 07:12 · Score: 0, Troll

And here I thought Slashdot was a place of discussion. So that's the way it is then? Post a valid question that "goes against the grain" and get modded down?
Wow. Yeah, let's all just sit there and pretend that Open Source is doing just fine and hear the "pundits" we like tell it "like it is" instead of discussing the topic. Discussion. An interesting word, isn't it?
Re:Your Bias by The+Bungi · 2003-03-17 08:04 · Score: 1, Offtopic

Mod me down boyz! C'mon, buuuurrrnnn those points and validate what I'm saying.
And mod this down, too!
Re:Your Bias by DaytonCIM · 2003-03-17 08:56 · Score: 1

Oh man, FK! You broke the cardinal /. rule: never, ever take M$'s side against the almighty Linus and Linux!

Ok, seriously... modded FK down for asking an honest question? What the hell?
Re:Your Bias by The+Bungi · 2003-03-17 08:58 · Score: 1

How about:
-1, Complains about comments complaining about what moderators will surely do to their comment
Re:Your Bias by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 16:43 · Score: 0

Since when do you have to use two products as much as each other to compare them? Really? Is that what you do? Have you deliberately starved yourself as much as you have allowed yourself to eat in order to find out which is preferable?
Re:Your Bias by FortKnox · 2003-03-18 02:27 · Score: 1

When Windows and Linux update themselves as much as they do, you should at least use both products at their highest level. For example, compairing the newest linux kernel to win98, then claiming that Linux will overtake MS in 5 years is a study that holds no water.

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Re:KDE wins by intermodal · 2003-03-17 06:37 · Score: 0, Offtopic

I agree with you personally, GNOME is was crap last time I tried it. Confusing and an all around pain in the ass. However, I will grant that that was in Red Hat 7.1. It may have improved since then. However, now that my distro would require me to download and compile it to try it, i don't care to try it since I am quite pleased with KDE (and i am on a modem). It just goes to show how first impressions count.

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Ask Nicholas Petreley About Linux Usage Statistics by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:37 · Score: 3, Funny

Ok, I'll bite:

Nicholas,

What about Linux usage statistics?

Defining Usage by Giant+Ape+Skeleton · 2003-03-17 06:38 · Score: 5, Insightful

What, in your opinion is the most meaningful measurement of usage?

Do you place any credibilty in the tendency for certain analysts to derive things like a "mindshare index" from arguably disparate sources?

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Re:Defining Usage by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:43 · Score: 0

At my company, we measure usage in furlongs per cubic second.

This is always a problem as our "mindshare index" is in square joules per lightyear. Thankfully our marketing people have a nifty equation to convert everything together cleanly.

Distros and numbers by farrellj · 2003-03-17 06:39 · Score: 5, Interesting

Part of the problem in counting the number of Linux desktops/servers/etc. is that anyone can get it from any of a million different places (friends, ftp, subscriptions, etc.), but the industry tends only to count sales. I know for a fact that every CD I have of Linux I have installed it on at least 10 other systems...some are upgrades, others are new users, and still others moving over from another distro.

And this leads to the other problem...what are the *real* usage stats on distros? It's hard to tell. From talking to people, a lot of people use Slackware and Debian for servers, Red Hat, Suse and Mandrake for desktops...but how can we really count who is using what?

ttyl
Farrell

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Re:Distros and numbers by mmol_6453 · 2003-03-17 06:56 · Score: 5, Interesting

With a slashdot poll? :)

A series of polls,
"I use Debian for a..."
* Server
* Desktop
* Both
* Raytracer of a CowboyNeal model

"I use Red Hat for a..."
* Server
* Desktop
* Both
* Cowboyowulf cluster

"I use Slackware for a..."
* Server
* Desktop
* Both
* CowboyNeal Dissection Model ...

(And if someone mods me "Interesting", I'll shoot myself.) ...

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Re:Distros and numbers by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:23 · Score: 3, Insightful

(And if someone mods me "Interesting", I'll shoot myself.) ...

Thing is though, how are you going to shoot yourself twice?

Or maybe this is one of those ". . . and I bet you won't read this out. . " radio/newspaper letters.

I think I'll give a try, if someone mods this as "Insightful" I'll eat this small puppy, deliciously garnished with a sprig of parsley and a squeeze of lemon.
Re:Distros and numbers by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:25 · Score: 0

http://www.securityspace.com/s_survey/data/200302/ com/index.html

Domain .com (Commercial)

Market Share Change (Total servers: 4,569,081 )

Server1 February
Count February
% January
Count January
% Change
Apache 2,873,591 62.89% 2,704,201 57.17% +5.72%
Microsoft 1,207,620 26.43% 1,134,550 23.99% +2.44%
Netscape 46,748 1.02% 46,026 0.97% +0.05%
Zeus 43,049 0.94% 41,261 0.87% +0.07%
WebSTAR 28,511 0.62% 39,831 0.84% -0.22%
WebSite 15,377 0.34% 15,346 0.32% +0.02%
Other 354,185 7.75% 748,942 15.83% -8.08%
Re:Distros and numbers by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:31 · Score: 0

what does this have to do with OS?
anyway, you could use the logs of a popular site, say google. hm, acording to this, and amazing 1% use linux.
Re:Distros and numbers by pdbogen · 2003-03-17 07:53 · Score: 1

I've never personally bought a Linux distro, so I guess the three computers I have Debian on don't count as running Linux. Damn.
Re:Distros and numbers by jd142 · 2003-03-17 08:11 · Score: 1

Agreed. Our university mirrors RedHat and anyone else you ask them to. So who knows how many people are using RH here unless you looked at the server logs on the U's server. Otherwise, the whole U would only get counted once as one download.
Re:Distros and numbers by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 09:12 · Score: 0

That's a lie. In fact, 15% of all computer users use Linux. However, they set their browsers to represent themselves as Microsoft Internet Explorer for Windows to avoid getting broken style sheets.

It's true.
Re:Distros and numbers by overbom · 2003-03-17 09:47 · Score: 2

And if someone mods me "Interesting", I'll shoot myself.

score, +5, interesting. you know what to do. :-)
Re:Distros and numbers by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 09:51 · Score: 0

And if someone mods me "Interesting", I'll shoot myself.

score, +5, interesting. you know what to do. :-)

Done.

(pause... pause... )

DOH!
Re:Distros and numbers by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 09:53 · Score: 0

what would you like on your tombstone?
Pepperoni and extra cheese.
Re:Distros and numbers by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 11:01 · Score: 0

Hahahahahahaha! There's no way even 15% of the Slashdorks use linux. What color is the sky in that sad, sad world?
Re:Distros and numbers by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 11:10 · Score: 0

i could see your point if this was about browsers, but why should i lie about my OS? i can tell my browser to look like IE running on linux just fine

and, 15% of people use linux? uh, yea, sure, whatever
Re:Distros and numbers by Foddrick · 2003-03-17 15:26 · Score: 1

More interesting would be a poll where you could vote on a subject like "What OS are you using right now" and instead of recording the choices, it derives it from the useragent. Inaccurate I know, but how many people would it catch out ?
Re:Distros and numbers by unitron · 2003-03-17 16:32 · Score: 1

"(And if someone mods me "Interesting", I'll shoot myself.) ..."
It's not that moderators can be bribed that's so disturbing, it's that with which they can be bribed.

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Re:Distros and numbers by kasperd · 2003-03-20 12:00 · Score: 1

derives it from the useragent.

We all know, that lots of people are lying about their useragent, simply because some servers misbehave if the useragent is not IE.

--

Do you care about the security of your wireless mouse?
Re:Distros and numbers by kristjansson · 2003-03-24 11:03 · Score: 1

Just put the gun down...

Re:KDE wins by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:41 · Score: 1, Informative

Read what that oGALAXYo guy has to say about G2.2.1 and I fully agree to this person. Looks like we need to back this person a bit.

So that 40% number... by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:41 · Score: 5, Interesting

...the one where 40% of developers are writing mainly to Linux. Where does that stat come from, and what does "developers" mean? It sounds really nice, but if it were true I as a Linux user would expect to see a lot more apps. Does it come from Sourceforge numbers? Does it come from a poll at a website; maybe a Slashdot, Kuro5hin or Newsforge poll? Is it of *all* developers, or of *paid* developers, or of developers of open-source developers or in-house developers or developers of commercial software? Does it include platform-agnostic developers (ie. Java/ perl/ ASP/ PHP/ .NET)? If so, which side does it put them on? Also, what is the error margin of the poll?

I know a bit about statistics, and more about Linux, and something smells fishy. Linux is good, so I figure the numbers are bad.

Re:So that 40% number... by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:22 · Score: 0

Does it include platform-agnostic developers (ie. Java/ perl/ ASP/ PHP/ .NET)?
Huh? .NET is only platform agnostic if your idea of cross-platform is something that runs on Win95/98/ME and WinNT/2K/XP. Sure there is Mono, but Microsoft already has plans to kill any .NET implementations that actually becomes a threat.
Re:So that 40% number... by bhsx · 2003-03-17 07:28 · Score: 1

I'm guessing that 40% includes web developers and website designers. That would raise the stat significantly when you consider Linux/Apache as a development environment.

--
put the what in the where?
Re:So that 40% number... by pdbogen · 2003-03-17 07:56 · Score: 1

40% of web developers and website designers that were willing to answer the survey.

The unfortunate thing about surveys is that they're inherently skewed- Some people just don't like to answer surveys. ("Excuse me, sir. Do you like to laugh?")
Re:So that 40% number... by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 11:38 · Score: 0

Does it count if I just learned to write hello world in perl on my freshly installed RH box? =)

Slightly offtopic by Telastyn · 2003-03-17 06:42 · Score: 4, Interesting

What stocks do you own?

Re:Slightly offtopic by delorean · 2003-03-17 07:51 · Score: 0, Offtopic
Yessss-- that would be interesting to know for several reasons-- interpret as you may:
1. Are yours sucking as bad as mine
2. Are you putting your money where your mouth is
3. Are you promoting where your money is?
4. ???
5. profit
6. har de har har
Ok... seriously, though. I would like to know.
--
"You may all go to hell and I will go to Texas"
Sen. Davy Crocket to US Congress, Nov. 1, 1835

Bias by pfankus · 2003-03-17 06:42 · Score: 4, Interesting

Do you feel obvious relationship to and advocacy of Linux skew any statistics that you would release or predict?

Does this bias (and it would be difficult to deny that it's apparent) affect how we as a community and the less Linux-savvy view these numbers?

I have ADD, so... by Joe+the+Lesser · 2003-03-17 06:44 · Score: 4, Interesting

If you could say in two sentences why I should use Linux instead of Windows or MacOS or anything else for that matter, what would you say?

--
"I only speak the truth"
Karma: null(Mostly affected by an unassigned variable)

Re:I have ADD, so... by John+Zebedee · 2003-03-17 10:30 · Score: 2, Informative

I just ran across this when I googled. Might be of interest, Joe: http://www.attentiondeficitdisorder.ws/links/techn ology.html BTW: I found out after 48 years that I have ADD, and I'm working as an coountant. Go figure! or design a database, or plan a wooden ship or wite a song . . .

--
The future is here. It's just not evenly distributed yet. -- William Gibson
Re:I have ADD, so... by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 13:29 · Score: 0

Speaking as a fellow ADD sufferer, I say... the last thing we need is a goddamned spastic pirate! You really want to know how obnoxious Capt. Bluebeard would be if he was to walk away in the middle of keelhauling captured French merchents? It really gets on my nerves. I wonder what happens when you mix blackpowder and snuff?

Re:KDE wins by intermodal · 2003-03-17 06:45 · Score: 0, Offtopic

ah. sounds like it has barely changed, in which case of course I back this man to the hilt in his opinion. I couldn't do a thing in GNOME. I know there are those who will cry out, 'RTFM!' but if i can use KDE and get my stuff done without trouble, I see no reason to RTFM for something else if I am happy where I am.

--
In SOVIET RUSSIA... erm...NSA AMERICA, the Internet logs onto YOU!

Yes, it will be different! by FatSean · 2003-03-17 06:45 · Score: 1

I'm hoping for 3 or 4 wars.

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Blar.

A question by RighteousFunby · 2003-03-17 06:47 · Score: 2, Interesting

Do you think that Linux will ever overtake MS and Apple on the desktop? If so, why and how? If not, again why?

--
If you're happy and you know it read my blog

Re:A question by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:53 · Score: 0

No.

Because it's a crap desktop, and will always be a crap desktop.
Re:A question by RighteousFunby · 2003-03-17 07:38 · Score: 1

Pile of wank

Lindows kicks ass as a solution for desktop. Click n Run is just what is needed-Windows Update, minus the idiocy.

Red Hat Linux 8.0 is great-it comes with software that would be worth over $1000 if bought commercially. It's brilliant. I use it every day. A computer illiterate relative uses it great. It, also, kicks ass.

Lycoris is a mad combination of Red Hat and Lindows. All the apps you need with an XP interface.

Linux will smash the balls off of everything on the desktop. Just wait and see.

--
If you're happy and you know it read my blog
Re:A question by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 08:26 · Score: 0

Oh, great! You use it! Your illiterate relative uses it! My heart, needless to say, sings with joy.
Too bad nothing actually works on it because it either doesn't exist, is crap or won't install without various gymnastics. That screen saver sure is purdy, though.
Re:A question by Spellbinder · 2003-03-17 10:36 · Score: 1

looks like another "kde made to look like windows desktop"
what is so special about this one ????

--

stop supporting microsoft with pirating their software!!!!!

Dear Nicholas Petreley by slashuzer · 2003-03-17 06:47 · Score: 5, Funny

You might be unaware of this fact, but the words Usage Statistics, IDC, study, etc trigger some deep emotions in the slashdot community.

So can you tell me, Is BSD dying?

Re:Dear Nicholas Petreley by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 09:47 · Score: 0

BSD is stalled. very little growth does not make it bad. The best thing to happen to BSD is APPLE
Re:Dear Nicholas Petreley by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 10:24 · Score: 0

It is official; Netcraft now confirms: *BSD is dying
One more crippling bombshell hit the already beleaguered *BSD community when IDC confirmed that *BSD market share has dropped yet again, now down to less than a fraction of 1 percent of all servers. Coming on the heels of a recent Netcraft survey which plainly states that *BSD has lost more market share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. *BSD is collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplified by failing dead last in the recent Sys Admin comprehensive networking test.
You don't need to be a Kreskin to predict *BSD's future. The hand writing is on the wall: *BSD faces a bleak future. In fact there won't be any future at all for *BSD because *BSD is dying. Things are looking very bad for *BSD. As many of us are already aware, *BSD continues to lose market share. Red ink flows like a river of blood.
FreeBSD is the most endangered of them all, having lost 93% of its core developers. The sudden and unpleasant departures of long time FreeBSD developers Jordan Hubbard and Mike Smith only serve to underscore the point more clearly. There can no longer be any doubt: FreeBSD is dying.
Let's keep to the facts and look at the numbers.
OpenBSD leader Theo states that there are 7000 users of OpenBSD. How many users of NetBSD are there? Let's see. The number of OpenBSD versus NetBSD posts on Usenet is roughly in ratio of 5 to 1. Therefore there are about 7000/5 = 1400 NetBSD users. BSD/OS posts on Usenet are about half of the volume of NetBSD posts. Therefore there are about 700 users of BSD/OS. A recent article put FreeBSD at about 80 percent of the *BSD market. Therefore there are (7000+1400+700)*4 = 36400 FreeBSD users. This is consistent with the number of FreeBSD Usenet posts.
Due to the troubles of Walnut Creek, abysmal sales and so on, FreeBSD went out of business and was taken over by BSDI who sell another troubled OS. Now BSDI is also dead, its corpse turned over to yet another charnel house.
All major surveys show that *BSD has steadily declined in market share. *BSD is very sick and its long term survival prospects are very dim. If *BSD is to survive at all it will be among OS dilettante dabblers. *BSD continues to decay. Nothing short of a miracle could save it at this point in time. For all practical purposes, *BSD is dead.
Fact: *BSD is dying

Public Awareness of Licensing by smitty45 · 2003-03-17 06:48 · Score: 3, Interesting

How much do you think that Linux usage statistics reflect the public's understanding of the licensing issues involved with Open Source (and Free) software ?

Answer this. by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:49 · Score: 0

Why can't the koffice team add a simple feature, a feature that EVERY OTHER SPREAD SHEET HAS, a select all button.

Re:Answer this. by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:57 · Score: 0

Add it yourself, fucktard.

The beauty of OSS is that you can call other people "fucktards" when you don't care about their input.

what will drive adoption among developers? by ubiquitin · 2003-03-17 06:51 · Score: 2, Interesting

Several obvious possibilities come to mind:

1. lower cost alternatives to proprietary tools
2. momentum from Perl, Python and PHP being developed first on *nix
3. inherent advantages such as stability and source code availability
4. capability to fine tune services such as email, web, etc.

With all these advantages, what do you identify to be the driving, unifying principle behind desktop Linux adoption by developers?

--
http://tinyurl.com/4ny52

I've a question. :) by Scoria · 2003-03-17 06:52 · Score: 1, Funny

Approximately what percentage of statistics are falsified?

--
Do you like German cars?

Re:I've a question. :) by banzai51 · 2003-03-17 07:41 · Score: 1

About 90%

Linux Usage Growth by Dios · 2003-03-17 06:54 · Score: 5, Interesting

Ok, this statement was thrown in my face a while back.

Its easy to go from 1 to 2 users or 2 to 4 and claim a fantastic growth rate, but what constitutes that magic number of users before its truly a desktop operating system being used daily by enough of a mass to catch the attention of large software development firms that will create/port applications to linux?

Is growth rate in terms of number of desktops conquered (eg growth rate of 1.5 million desktops a year) a better measuring stick than doubled/tripled/whatever the number of users in X years. What, in your opinion, is a good measuring tool in determining the growth rate/acceptance of linux in the market?

Linux outperforms Windows by MrBandersnatch · 2003-03-17 06:54 · Score: 2, Interesting

Even on Intel, Linux outperforms Windows....The irony here is that Windows gets an unfair market-share boost because it is inferior to Linux and requires more installations to do the same work.

Can he provide references to the studies which show that "Linux outperforms windows" and show any corroborating evidence of real-world installations where a higher volume of Windows systems were actually deployed? I don't live in either the Windows or Linux camps - each has it uses - but I have to say that I consider Mr. Petreleys article to be one of the shoddiest pieces of analysis I have ever encountered. Does LinuxWorld practice open-source journalism now as well?

Re:Linux outperforms Windows by stratjakt · 2003-03-17 07:11 · Score: 1

As soon as you read "Linux outperforms windows" or "windows outperforms linux" or "PS2 is cooler than xbox", you should realize you're reading biased and completely subjective opinions, and not facts.

Anyone with half a clue about what they're talking about would never make such an asinine statement.

Zealotry and misinformation will keep linux in obscure corners and backrooms, and off of the desktop.

--
I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
Re:Linux outperforms Windows by molarmass192 · 2003-03-17 07:13 · Score: 2, Interesting

Not to answer for him but, here's one for file and printer sharing. There are also a number of TPC benchmarks that show Linux outperforms MS W2K running Oracle on identical platforms.

That said, I'd like to second your point that broad statements like "outperforms" should always be in the context of "at what". It's like me saying "I'm faster than George" ... it just doesn't mean anything when it's out of context like that.

--

Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws-Plato
Re:Linux outperforms Windows by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 08:28 · Score: 0

Couldn't have said it better.

Nothing from nothing by UselessTrivia · 2003-03-17 06:55 · Score: 1

"...research report focused on Linux developers"
"More than 70 percent of developers say they install Linux over whatever OS happens to be pre-installed on the machines they buy"

So, only 70% of linux developers install linux?
Only 40% of linux developers work primarily on linux?
and so on...

As long as it is OSS or neutral it shouldn't matte by ShatteredDream · 2003-03-17 06:56 · Score: 1

Seriously, if everyone is using OO, Apache, Evolution, etc, does it really matter whether it's on Linux, *BSD, OSX or OpenBeOS? I'd even include Windows into that category until Microsoft basically makes supporting OSS on Windows next to impossible which I don't foresee.

--
Click here or a puppy gets stomped!

At what point will Linux reach critical mass? by molarmass192 · 2003-03-17 06:57 · Score: 4, Interesting

At what level of penetration (% install base share) will Linux reach critical mass on the desktop? It's much less relevant from a server perspective since it appears that Linux already has reached critical mass on that front. Should we assume that when Linux supplants Apple as the number two platform (although this has already happened from what I have seen, nobody is stating it yet in the mass media), that we will see a proliferation of commercial Linux offerings and (more importantly) better OEM hardware support?

--

Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws-Plato

Re:At what point will Linux reach critical mass? by Dan+Ost · 2003-03-17 07:22 · Score: 2, Interesting

Please define critical mass on the desktop.

People are already using it and developing for it.
Is that not critical mass already?

--

*sigh* back to work...
Re:At what point will Linux reach critical mass? by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:39 · Score: 0

Should we assume that when Linux supplants Apple as the number two platform (although this has already happened from what I have seen, nobody is stating it yet in the mass media)
how did you come up with that? last time i checked, apple still has a lot more users than linux
Re:At what point will Linux reach critical mass? by frankthechicken · 2003-03-17 07:54 · Score: 1

Please define critical mass on the desktop.

Errr, "And god said to thee, thy desktop looks a bit grubby, give a polish. Can someone give me an Amen?"
Re:At what point will Linux reach critical mass? by molarmass192 · 2003-03-17 08:37 · Score: 1

"from what I have seen" == from my personal experience. I know of only 4 Mac boxen (with 2 belonging to one person) in my circle of acquaintances (work included). In that same circle I know of over 30 Linux boxen (4 are mine). So "from what I have seen", Linux boxen outnumber Mac boxen 6-to-1. If I had seen it written somewhere, I wouldn't have added "nobody is stating it yet in the mass media".

Don't get me wrong, I think Mac hardware kicks a-- and I wish I had the resources to stock up on it. However, this doesn't change the fact that people with Mac hardware are few and far between. Are your observations so vastly different from mine?

--

Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws-Plato
Re:At what point will Linux reach critical mass? by Dstrct0 · 2003-03-17 08:42 · Score: 1

nope.

Unless you're having a really rough time configuring X properly, or running a mighty old distro, linux desktops are pretty slick-looking already.

I think my Gnome + Enlightenment desktop beats the hell out of every XP desktop I've been subjected to thus far.

--
Build boards not bombs
Re:At what point will Linux reach critical mass? by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 09:08 · Score: 0

well, personaly i know me as a linux user, and quite a few apple users. if you count each computer, that would be about 20. i guess counting only those that are actually used, its around 10. then again, most people i know find computers horribly complicated, and strugle with the difference between save and save as, so they might be quite different from the people you - or most other people on /. - know

and to nitpick a bit: 1/6=4/30 huh?
Re:At what point will Linux reach critical mass? by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 09:11 · Score: 0

Damn, I was trying to make a joke, not flame one OS other another, as it was a critical mass/sermon on a desktop(my desk's top), hence it looks a bit grubby, could probably need some polishing and thus it might be construed as amusing but I think looking back now in the cold light of day, that perhaps in all probability it was just a bit sad and pathetic.

Much like my life, I mean look at me I'm trying to defend myself and my actions on some blog site, in the vain hope that someone somewhere will accept me and take me into their life and perhaps, just maybe they'll. . .
Re:At what point will Linux reach critical mass? by Dstrct0 · 2003-03-17 09:18 · Score: 1

aaaaahhhhhh.....

In that case, I apologize for my misinterpretation of your comment.

I always get a bit venomous during these "X looks ugly because I didn't take the time to configure it properly" discussions.

In regards to the actual desk itself: Yeah, mine is looking pretty harsh right now too.

If only my desk was half as cool-looking as my desktop... :)

--
Build boards not bombs

Ok... by frodo+from+middle+ea · 2003-03-17 06:58 · Score: 1

fisrt and foremost i must state that i use linux daily and almost exclusively
now for the questions
Apart from the free (speech/beer whatever) source/ closed source propoganda what has linux to offer a average customer (read non-geek) that windows doesn't ?
If its all about choice, then what will prevent customers from choosing windows in future, even if hypothetically speaking the customer is able to buy a no pre-installed OS pc.?
Even though MS license's are costly for enterprise level purchase, the argument doesn't hold true for single PC purchases. 99$ for WindowsXP upgrades v/s 40-150 $ for any leading linux distro. I know that linux distros include much more than a bare bone OS, but do the customers really care ?
One of THE MOST important things for linux to succeed in desktop is to get the OEM manifactures out from the microsoft's clutches. Right now MS has gat them by their nuts. Unless OEM manifactures natively support linux, we will have to depend on reverse-engg. hacks for our h/w to work under linux. Just how does the linux community proposeto bring about this change ?

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for the last time people, I am "frodo from middle eaRTH", not "middle eaST".

Re:Ok... by Bull999999 · 2003-03-17 07:23 · Score: 1

Average user won't be buying a upgrade version of Windows XP to upgrade their own computer just as they won't be buying a Linux distro. Besides, it maybe unwise to upgrade to Windows XP on a machine that's designed just to run Windows 95/98 due to performance reasons.

I do agree with you on the OEM part. Most people just buy computers and use whatever that comes with it. Linux will have a hard time gaining on the desktop market (for home users) unless more OEMs ship with Linux desktops.

--
1f u c4n r34d th1s u r34lly n33d t0 g37 l41d
Re:Ok... by Chris+Burke · 2003-03-17 08:01 · Score: 2, Insightful

Apart from the free (speech/beer whatever) source/ closed source propoganda what has linux to offer a average customer (read non-geek) that windows doesn't ?

Well, I don't really need any more than that. And once educated on the issue, a lot of non-geeks don't either. There are a lot of people who base their purchasing decisions on exactly that kind of thing. You think only geeks are privacy-conscious? Try telling people that WinXP makes you agree to let MS search and alter your hard drive, and see how much they value MS's promise to only use that for voluntary updates.

If its all about choice, then what will prevent customers from choosing windows in future, even if hypothetically speaking the customer is able to buy a no pre-installed OS pc.?

Assume you can get whatever operating system you want pre-installed, otherwise that makes the question kinda pointless (people will pick Windows because they can get it pre-installed). But nothing will -prevent- them from picking windows. Certainly people will. But once there -is- choice, then what's to prevent them from picking Linux?

I know that linux distros include much more than a bare bone OS, but do the customers really care ?

I think so. I think they'll care when they realize that the $100 for the XP upgrade doesn't come with Office. And people who think FreeCell and Minesweeper are pretty cool go apeshit over the games that come with Linux distros. :)

Basically, they might not care -now-, because they don't know. People aren't used to getting like 3 disks crammed with applications with their operating system, but once they are, doesn't it seem like they'd like that?

One of THE MOST important things for linux to succeed in desktop is to get the OEM manifactures out from the microsoft's clutches.

I agree. The only advantages MS has are by virtue of its entrenchment -- consumer software and hardware vendors target Windows first. Until then, the folks who'd run Linux "except (I need to use Photoshop | UT2003 runs like ass on my Raedon | my scanner won't work, period )" will be beyond reach.

--

The enemies of Democracy are

Two important stats... by javabandit · 2003-03-17 06:58 · Score: 1

Can you give answers to the following important (in my mind) statistics:

1) How many users will convert from Windows desktops to Linux desktops?

2) How many users will convert from Linux desktops to Windows desktops?

To me, these are that stats that really matter. How much market share is Linux taking away from Windows, and vice versa.

Why not looking at Petreley's sources? by rpiquepa · 2003-03-17 06:59 · Score: 2, Informative

I commented about this article two days ago here. In it, you could find references to the Evans Data Corporation (EDC) he based his story. Check Primary OS Prior to Mainly Targeting Linux OS or How Important Are 64-Bit Architectures? pages before arguing about Nicholas Petreley's article.

submit or we will kill you all! by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 06:59 · Score: 0

Nah. I'm hoping for just one BIG one.
They called WWI "the war to end all wars". I think it's about time we carried through with that ideal!

Pre-Installed Linux for the Desktop by lcsjk · 2003-03-17 06:59 · Score: 3, Interesting

People expect to get "Windows" when they purchase a new computer at "Walmart" or other major outlet. Most people want to "buy it, plug it in and use it", ie., pre-installed OS. Only a few people know the value of Linux vs Windows. Do any of the statistics show the effect of advertising and pre-installed Os on market share and usage trends?

IDC credibility by Animats · 2003-03-17 07:00 · Score: 5, Interesting

IDC is always publishing those studies about future market share, but where are the studies comparing past IDC predictions with the actuals?

We can't even get solid Internet traffic statistics. Look at the mess Worldcom's inflated traffic numbers caused.

Re:IDC credibility by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:12 · Score: 0

IDC has consistently underestimated Linux growth with respect how long it takes Linux to reach a certain level of market penetration.. To their credit, IDC has openly admitted that Linux was overtaking even IDC's own brightest expectations.
IDC is very conservative about time frames. Linux adoption has beaten every IDC prediction time frame, year after year. The Linux surge is still catching them by surprise.

As the saying goes... by rusty+spoon · 2003-03-17 07:01 · Score: 4, Interesting

There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.

How do you reconcile the "fact" that everyone has statistics to show what they want, with the fact that you think yours are better?

Re:As the saying goes... by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:16 · Score: 0

"He uses statistics like a drunken man uses a lamp post, for support rather than illumination."

-Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain)

Re:Cool! by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:02 · Score: 0

Well we know these two facts:

(1) Linus is using Linux as a desktop
(2) I started using Linux as a desktop for about half a year

so I guess they must be talking about me. Cool. Now I'm famous.

WTF? by Sloppy · 2003-03-17 07:03 · Score: 1

Isn't there only one question, and hasn't Roblimo already asked it?

--
As copyright owner of this comment, I authorize everyone to defeat any technological measure which limits access to it.

HE ASKS AN HONEST QUESTION! by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:04 · Score: 0

Honestly, people, why take such 'facts' from an obviously suspect source as gospel? I think the parent asks a valid question.

Who is going to lead the way? by blitzrage · 2003-03-17 07:04 · Score: 5, Interesting

If you feel that linux on the desktop is going to double by 2004, how do you figure we are going to get there? Who is going to lead the way and what is going to become the turning point that linux becomes a usable desktop for the majority of users? I love linux, its configurability and the support that is available on the web, but I would never install linux on my grandmothers computer at home. Do you figure that linux should just pick a default window manager now and build upon that to allow a seamless interface from those coming from Windows XP to linux?

--

I have no signature

Re:Who is going to lead the way? by oconnorcjo · 2003-03-17 08:11 · Score: 3, Interesting

If you feel that linux on the desktop is going to double by 2004, how do you figure we are going to get there? Who is going to lead the way and what is going to become the turning point that linux becomes a usable desktop for the majority of users?
Google says here that Linux only accounts for 1% of search hits on google. Anyone doing searches on the internet is ,by my definintion, a "Desktop User" and this is probably the most impartial measurment of Linux usage one can get. So for Linux to double to 2% is not that special. "grandmothers" will probably not be a large chunk of that 2%.
Yeah - I know... this is an interview question thingy but I could not help commenting.

--
I miss the Karma Whores.
Re:Who is going to lead the way? by bluGill · 2003-03-17 11:51 · Score: 1

I don't trust that. Many linux users have faked their browser id string, normally to claim they are running ie on windows so various websites won't send them to microsoft for the latest browser. Unfortunatly so long as we keep faking our id, websites won't see the demand for other browsers so they won't bother checking for them meaning we have to fake them even longer...
Re:Who is going to lead the way? by nathanh · 2003-03-17 11:54 · Score: 1

Google says here [google.com] that Linux only accounts for 1% of search hits on google. Anyone doing searches on the internet is ,by my definintion, a "Desktop User" and this is probably the most impartial measurment of Linux usage one can get. So for Linux to double to 2% is not that special. "grandmothers" will probably not be a large chunk of that 2%.

But what's the problem here? It's 1 percent. Let's repeat that. Linux on the desktop is 1 percent. That's amazing. I'm... wow, it's incredible. Apparently lots of people are thinking "glass is 99% empty" but I'm thinking "wow, the glass exists and it's 1% full". Can't you see how amazing it is that a hobby OS built by enthusiasts with collaboration over the Internet is now 1% of the desktop market? That's freaking incredible. If you'd asked me 10 years ago I would have said "yeah, I use it, but it'll never have more than a few 100 hardcore UNIX users". Now it's one whole freaking percent. That's millions of desktops. It's bloody amazing.
Don't be fooled by marketshare. Linux is now 1% of the desktop. That's mind boggling.
Re:Who is going to lead the way? by msimm · 2003-03-17 14:09 · Score: 1

Do you figure that Linux should just pick a default window manager now and build upon that to allow a seamless interface from those coming from Windows XP to Linux?
I think the KDE/Gnome unification project is a step in that direction (IMHO the right step). Next I'd like to see a list of basic applications that make up the base Linux distribution. NOTHING FANCY. Windows has things like the Notepad, Imaging and the Calculator.

What do you think those applications do? Are they easy to use? Wouldn't just about every user be able to figure out what they are and how you use them?

With Linux Notepad is called VI and in the 4 years I've used Linux I still haven't figured out how to use it. So the first thing I do is install Nano, which I know to do because I've installed Debian (which I uninstalled because the tulip driver that came with it at the time was not compatible with my Linksys ethernet card, which requires the tulip driver, but like a different tulip driver). Of course I need to install Ncurses first because Nano wont install without it. But my system comes with Ncurses, its fairly common. But its the wrong version. So before I edit I install both.

Seems like a lot of work just because the average distribution doesn't think like a light load computer user.

Simple, useful applications like Nano (based on my old good friend, Pico!) are fairly common. It shouldn't be THAT difficult to put together a short list of basic applications that would define the base Linux operating system. Name them SANELY (Nano sounds cute, but it needs to sound something like what it is). Include command line applications and X applications. KISS, but cover your bases. Not with extra apps, just look at Windows if you need to know what your average new user needs. Plan on something going wrong, "you don't need Nano, VidConfigureX will configure that for you!" just doesn't cut it.

Linux configuration is getting pretty close to standardized, why does every distribution contain a custom tool set? I'd like to learn this once and I cant see a good technical reason that I can't. Make one skinnable, so distros can make it fit nicely into their vision, but make it consistent.

Adopt a single installation scheme. Everyone knows VISE and it does the trick. Custom packaging is great, their will always be someone smarter out their with a better way. But I'm a big fan of the Loki installer, because it works and because it looks good and makes me feel like I know what's going on. Those things are important.

I don't think any single thing I've mentioned doesn't already exist. I just doesn't exist in any one place. That's ironic because where talking about market penetration without even talking advantage of what we've already got.

Give me a basic distro with what I've mentioned above. Add a package management system like portage and unite Gnome and KDE and you've got a desktop revolution.

Until then its just boys and toys.

--
Quack, quack.
Re:Who is going to lead the way? by Hoxworth · 2003-03-24 05:53 · Score: 1

I completely agree with this remark. The ability to "choose your own software," one of the major beauties of open source for the end user, also turns out to be one of the major drawbacks in bringing Linux to the mainstream desktop. For technologically inclined individuals, or those with a deep passion for computing, we love the fact that we can drop one window manager in an instant and start building another that may have better functionality. While this may seem like a simple concept for those of us who have used the command line for years, it is a downright disaster in the making for those who just use computers occassionally. The Linux community needs to decide where they want Linux to go. If they want Linux to be a server, then great, continue on your way and develop a powerful, fast, dynamic server operating system. However, if they want Linux to be a desktop OS, the Linux community needs to come together and embrace the idea that the window manager *IS* the operating system to 98% of the home users out there. A single window manager needs to be created or used, and all development should be geared towards integrating that one window manager into the background OS so that the old command-line days are completely transparent. I cannot see Linux becoming a mainstream desktop OS until this issue is resolved. Until then, the Linux community will continue to be those who only use it because they are technically inclined to do so.

Re:KDE wins by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:06 · Score: 0

Thanks for clearing that up, oGalaxyo.

Differences by The+Bungi · 2003-03-17 07:17 · Score: 4, Interesting

What is the difference between you and the people who are demonized and flamed to no end because they quote seemingly unreliable and baseless statistics to support the idea that Windows is doing well in the market place? That Windows is better than Linux as a server OS?

It seems to me that for the past four or five years I've been seeing "statistics" and "studies" to the tune of "Linux is enterprise-ready" and "Linux will overtake the desktop" and "Linux rulez". What's different today?

Re:Differences by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:48 · Score: 0

How the hell did this get marked interesting? Can't you see it's a goddamn troll, I mean look at this . . .

It seems to me that for the past four or five years I've been seeing "statistics" and "studies" to the tune of "Windows is enterprise-ready" and "Microsoft will overtake the desktop" and "Microsoft rulez". What's different today?

And this. . .

What is the difference between you and the people who are demonized and flamed to no end because they quote seemingly unreliable and baseless statistics to support the idea that Linux is doing well in the market place? That Linux is better than Windows as a server OS?

He's a goddamn troll.
Re:Differences by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 08:02 · Score: 0

He's a goddamn troll.
Maybe to your little turd brain, but he's asking a legitimate question.
Vote with your mod points or vote with your comments, but a "troll alert" from an AC ain't worth much.
Re:Differences by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 08:11 · Score: 0

Erm, I think the coward was being sarcastic, compare the quotes.

Biggest stumbling block? by nlinecomputers · 2003-03-17 07:22 · Score: 4, Interesting

What in your opinion is the biggest stumbling block for wide spread acceptance of Linux in desktop uses?

Lack of software, poor GUI design, lack of a single common GUI, hard to buy a computer with out Microsoft software preinstalled, "it is free so it can't be good" misconceptions, or something else?

--
Slashdot, home of supporters of free software, free music, and free speech.Except for Moderators that disagree with you.

Re:Biggest stumbling block? by msimm · 2003-03-17 08:46 · Score: 1
Yes. And don't forget:
1. Inconsistent user interface.
2. Inconsistent/Incomprehensible configuration tools (where talking about new users, not computer science students).
3. Software installation problems.
4. Driver inavailability/incompatability.
5. Inconsistent hardware detection.
6. General usability issues.
7. Overwhelming (and unfriendly) selection of applications.
I've been using Linux for a least 4 years now exclusively. And I'm getting more and more perplexed by this slated push into mainstream.

I just don't see that its ready. Of course some distrobutions get some things right and others get some. But not all things in one place yet.

Give me Gentoo with Mandrake autoconfiguration and Kudzu auto detection and KDE and Gnome compatibility with some good/consistent configuration utillities and I'd go nuts.
--
Quack, quack.
Re:Biggest stumbling block? by sstory · 2003-03-17 10:07 · Score: 1

That's a good comprehensive list of the problems with Linux. Fortunately, one problem has abated slightly--for a long time, users new to linux were treated horribly by adolescent-minded people. More mentally adult people seem to have gotten involved.
Generally, though, there's still something of a problem that the Linux community does not understand, which is that most of us non-computer-specialists don't value spending lots of time to learn an abstruse system. The value of Microsoft is the amount of use you can get out of the system while not putting much time into learning it, or, god forbid, troubleshooting it. For example, I have a foreboding amount of physics to do. Win2k sets up effortlessly, and if I need to install, say, Matlab and start solving numerical diffyq's, I'm quickly using Matlab to get my work done. I do not have time to figure out glibc things and how to mount the cdrom and all that stuff. I don't have time to figure out why the machine doesn't recognise the LAN. I have things to do. If I put in a disk and it's not obvious how to get it to work, I'm not using that computer. It's not because I'm all that familiar with Windows, it's because you don't have to be familiar to use it. Linux requires a bulk of knowledge to use effectively. My experiences with RedHat 8 and Mandrake 9 tell me that the bulk of knowledge is getting smaller, but it's still too big.

The only true figures are... by RoshanCat · 2003-03-17 07:25 · Score: 4, Interesting

http://www.google.com/press/zeitgeist.html

It is fairly neutral(in fact even Linux & advanced users biased). It shows Marketshare of Linux has failed to register even a blip, while XP grew from 0% to a whopping 26% in just a few months.

Before everyone spews some shit about how they access Google from office, I have got one word for you guys 'Corelation'. Most of the enterprise has not switched to XP, but yet XP shows up at 26%. Also I dont believe that after all those people switching to Linux, it hasn't grown past 1% (i.e 0% growth) for the past freaking 24 months. Pretty damning for the fastest growing OS in the planet.

Zeitgiest shows only one fastest growing OS, i.e Windows XP

As long as there are clueless idiots who would believe anything Linux zealots say, "Linux is growing marketshare in desktop"

Re:The only true figures are... by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 08:19 · Score: 0

Ho-hum. Another day, another valid point, another moderator with an agenda. Wow, you guys sure work hard to make sure no truth leaks out of this black hole.
To the parent poster: you, sir, are very correct and, for that, I give you a virtual mod: +1, insightful
Re:The only true figures are... by nick+this · 2003-03-17 10:12 · Score: 2, Informative

I'd say thats true to some degree. But even Google's stats aren't right... they rely on the browser info provided by the browser itself, not what it really is.

For example, I'm using konq, and I have it set to identify itself as IE 5.5 on Windows 2000. So I *know* I'm inflating the Win2K and IE 5.5 figures myself.

In fact, half of the techs in my office use linux, and the other half use Opera on Win2K... but everyone identifies themselves as IE, just to get around stupid browser sniffers.

Try getting to support.microsoft.com using something other than IE. Unless you lie, the page won't display right.

So I would submit that those numbers are probably biased against non-windows platforms. It might be the case that the Linux desktop percentage is as high as, say, 3%!

Yeah, okay. Still pretty sorry... but I'm not sure I trust the Google stats as-is. I believe your fundamental assertion is probably right. Linux desktop penetration is abysmal.
Re:The only true figures are... by Speare · 2003-03-18 00:33 · Score: 2, Insightful

In fact, half of the techs in my office use linux, and the other half use Opera on Win2K... but everyone identifies themselves as IE, just to get around stupid browser sniffers.
Sounds like it's time to make the spoofing relative to the site or the page. Broadcast a reliable presence indicator for Linux for as many sites as possible, but if a site is known to be broken, then spoof. In fact, if your browser followed up every spoof with a second invisible request with a browser named "Linux browser using Microsoft tag because your site is broken!", it might inform the site operators. Hey, I could dream, right?

--
[ .sig file not found ]

Re:As long as it is OSS or neutral it shouldn't ma by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:25 · Score: 0

> I'd even include Windows into that category until Microsoft basically makes supporting OSS on Windows next to impossible which I don't foresee.

It was called Paladium until a few months ago.

Re:KDE wins by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:27 · Score: 0

No it hasn't changed.

Your Legacy by Black-Man · 2003-03-17 07:28 · Score: 0, Flamebait

I remember you - years ago and I mean *years*... you wrote for Infoworld. Back then, you were a big OS/2 zealot and anti-Windows. Funny... now you are a big Linux zealot. Take one uniform off... there's always another underneath.

But, please explain your allegiance... or are you just the consumate troll?

Error Margin by Arethan · 2003-03-17 07:30 · Score: 1

+/-50%
*grin*

Who cares?!?!? by Otter · 2003-03-17 07:35 · Score: 2, Insightful

I don't get this -- a relatively flamebait-ish writer from a relatively flamebait-ish Linux publication writes an article claiming that Linux desktop share must be high because of a survey focused entirely on developers, and because, well, you can't prove it's NOT! and we're lining up to ask him detailed questions about his analysis?

Look, the Google numbers speak for themselves. If people want to tell themselves that >90% of Linux desktop users are faking their browser ID strings, then bless 'em.

--
What I'm listening to now on Pandora...

The stats I trust - Google by TheLastUser · 2003-03-17 07:39 · Score: 1

I think the best measure of Linux desktop usages has got to be Google Zeitgeist, which shows Linux stagnant at 1%. Linux has been 1% for so long that I suspect that Google might be being kind to even separate Linux into its own category, instead of lumping it in with the bots in the "Other" category.

A doubling of this would mean 2% still half of Mac at 4% (was 5% in Sept 2002) and no where near the beast (91%).

Browser stats are also interesting, but difficult to interpret the share due to the unlabeled y-axis.

Re:The stats I trust - Google by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-19 01:43 · Score: 0

How about using another ratio of application use:

Windows Maya licenses vs Linux Maya licenses?

Statsitcal lie by Shadow+Wrought · 2003-03-17 07:42 · Score: 2, Interesting

We all know that 42.78% of all statstics are made up, and that another 63.58% of statistics are wrong. Considering that the remaining 78.92% of statistics are "wildly inaccurate", I am wondering if you have contemplated using the Slashdot Poll as a way of reaching truly unbiased results?

As a follow-up question, does your reasarch support the CowboyNeal Theory that links "insensitive clods" with M$ desktops?

--
If brevity is the soul of wit, then how does one explain Twitter?

Re:Statsitcal lie by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-19 01:26 · Score: 0

Hah! A pole on slashdot that's unbiased? I don't think it's possible. But I agree with you that most statistics are just bs.

Will embedded use quadruple ? by bushboy · 2003-03-17 07:48 · Score: 1

Embedded Linux devices I think will do far better than that.

I'd like to see a successful embedded linux company put some investment toward open source desktop initiatives.

--
A slashdotting - you get the stick first and then the carrot !

What kind of... by Rams�s+Morales · 2003-03-17 07:52 · Score: 1

statistical technique do you use to estimate the number of users that use Linux on a machine that came with windows pre-installed?

stats.... by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:53 · Score: 0

You know that 47% of all stats are made up on the fly.

Linux on the Desktop by pastpolls · 2003-03-17 07:56 · Score: 1

As a linux newbie, I have found that the hardest thing about moving to linux is finding drivers for my devices. Some are too old, some are too new, but I don't have this problem with Windows. Besides constant hounding, what can be done to encourage venders to create Linux drivers in-house? Is this in you opinion, better than have drivers hacked together by users? Am I crazy to think that I should not have to check a list of Linux drivers before buying a new wireless network card or trying to install an old scsi device?

Photoshop by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 07:57 · Score: 1, Insightful

What will it take to get Adobe to release their flagship product Photoshop for Linux? Many users will feel that Linux has arrived when apps such as Photoshop ship for Linux.

My question: by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 08:00 · Score: 0

Hi nick!

Can you please tell me about Linux usage statistics?

Thanks.

How do we know what the market penetration is? by bheerssen · 2003-03-17 08:04 · Score: 5, Interesting

I mean, really.

What are the primary means of assessing Linux on the Desktop usage statistics, and how reliable are these methods? Also, what types of methods are used to offset each method's failings?

There are websites that track such statistics. In your opinion, how reliable are these sites in general?

--
(Score: -1, Stupid)

Re:How do we know what the market penetration is? by Poor+College+Student · 2003-03-17 14:52 · Score: 1

I wouldn't think they are reliable at all. Mandrake linux had a noticable link to li.org on their forum page, whereas Slackware doesn't link to them. If I hadn't been a user of Mandrake, I probably never would have visited the site and never have registered. Aside from a national poll conducted with randomly selected people, browser information collected at a site like google.com or yahoo.com is probably the most accurate way of determining Desktop linux use.

another way out? by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 08:12 · Score: 0

good time to glance towards whatever you consider to be powerful.

clever buy george, giving the sadwon 24 hrs. to 'get outta town'.

'course that does put the heads of the babies firmly in the sadwon's court (at least for ?pr? puposes)? all this other real estate/comoddities scammage, could be resolved, no DOWt.

so nick, is the desktop software bothered by radiation, etc...?

Or: by endoboy · 2003-03-17 08:14 · Score: 3, Interesting

substitute for Photoshop: CAD applications (AutoCad, SolidWorks, ProE, SolidEdge, etc.)

MODERATORS ON CRACK by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 08:24 · Score: 0

This guy is asking a valid question. Stop being fucking elitist's and modding him down.

These stats shouldnt be used for anything at all by mnmn · 2003-03-17 08:30 · Score: 1

I would be extremely skeptical of the Linux useage statistics if I'd ever have to consider it. In my circle of friends and family, Linux gets used on and off depending on the situation. Some friends are running or ran at some time, Linux webservers, fileservers etc. I am currently using Win98 on desktop computers at home, while two servers are Redhat and SuSE. In history Ive used Solaris, FreeBSD, NetBSD on the servers and tried Linux on some of the desktops for some time, even BeOS and FreeBSD.

So at any time am I a Linux user if I'm running 2 Linux servers but a win98 desktop? Is my friend a Linux user if he's using one for a firewall but doesnt know it? If I'm using Linux part-time when not playing games? Certainly other free OSes will not be counted...

Beside these, too many other friends have requested Linux CDs from me, and received Knoppix. Since I dont know the status and useage of those CDs, they can neither all be counted or discounter. The linux useage counter is basically a counter of all who have run into that site.

--
"Give orange me give eat orange me eat orange give me eat orange give me you." -Nim Chimpsky

Linux IS DOUBLING by jasonrocks · 2003-03-17 08:51 · Score: 1

Most linux desktop, or as I would say, home or laptop users who use linux are already somewhat proficient with computers. (i.e. CS, comp/electric engineers) Truly, old hats are less likely to change. The up and coming generation is the most likely to use linux. At BYU's installfest this year,
" We installed Linux for 57 people, some on multiple computers. This was by far our most successful InstallFest. Because of the huge turnout, we blew three breakers. We even had to move all the laptop users out into the hall to be on a different power circuit. " club site
I'm fairly certain we at least doubled installations since the last installfest.

--

void

Data supporting your claims? by fitten · 2003-03-17 08:51 · Score: 1

First, I read the article. I'm curious to where the survey was taken... looks/sounds like it was at LinuxWorld. Now, here are some claims made that I'd like to see the numbers on.

"Even on Intel, Linux outperforms Windows."

and

"Let's say one company installs two Linux servers, but the company next door chooses five Windows servers to handle the same load."

and

"The irony here is that Windows gets an unfair market-share boost because it is inferior to Linux and requires more installations to do the same work. "

I've never seen anything supporting these claims. Post proof or simply fall into the "fanboi" bin.

Comment removed by account_deleted · 2003-03-17 08:51 · Score: 0, Offtopic

Comment removed based on user account deletion

You've never worked with Petreley, have you? by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 08:58 · Score: 1, Interesting

The man has a stat for everything, but there's never a source in site. He's really quite a good guy, very intelligent, and reasonably good technically... but his evangelist side sometimes gets the best of him. Read his stuff as you would an opinion piece, not truth.

Re:Get some priorities! by TheRaven64 · 2003-03-17 09:01 · Score: 1

When the Europeans built a global empire it resulted in two world wars! You think the American empire of the 21st century will be different?!?!

Yes.

WW1: A war between two major powers meant lining people up in trenches and charging at machine gun implacements. Duration: Years.

WW2: A war between two major powers involved a large number of high explosive strikes against civilian targets. Duration: Years

WW3: All sides will have nuclear weapons. At least one side will be desparate enough to use them. Duration: Hours. Casualties: 100%.

I'm not really sure who you think is going to be around to fight WW4. I believe it was Einstein who said 'I do not know with what weapons the next war will be fought, but the one after that will be fought with sticks and stones.'

--
I am TheRaven on Soylent News

Enterprise vs. retail developers by Angst+Badger · 2003-03-17 09:08 · Score: 2, Insightful

Nicholas, given that the vast, vast majority of developers write software for internal corporate use and B2B applications, what possible significance can your 40% number have for the consumer desktop? Windows dominated the consumer desktop market before it penetrated a corporate market dominated by Unix, VMS, OS/360, etc., not the other way around. No one seriously disputes the rapid growth of Linux in the enterprise, but it seems to me that the corporate server market -- even the corporate desktop market -- has very little influence on what my grandmother or my daughter use on their desktops.

--
Proud member of the Weirdo-American community.

Re:freedom fries by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 09:10 · Score: 0

FRENCH fries were invented by BELGIANS!

Stupid ignorant Yank fucks!

Double? by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 09:22 · Score: 0

2 * 0 is still 0.

Re:If I had skills I might... by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 09:33 · Score: 0

"When the lady who cuts my hair, a real skill, tells me I must be smart to work with computers"

The correct response to that comment is "No, you don't have to be smart to work with computers".

Games? by dolson · 2003-03-17 09:50 · Score: 3, Interesting

Obviously games isn't factored into the usage equation, am I right?

Take the only known stats, and look them over. Compare them to Windows...

Rune: 0.37%, if that, were Linux sales.
UT2003: less than 1% of people to ever play online were in Linux

And so on...

Most people know that Linux is used extensively on the server side of things, but how is Linux doing on the desktop side? And more specifically, games?

Statistics inconsistent with reality by jvalenzu · 2003-03-17 09:54 · Score: 1

How do you reconcile the theoretical existence of a GNU/Linux desktop market with the inability of any company to eek out an existence selling GNU/Linux desktop software?

Computers for ADD people by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 09:56 · Score: 0

I recommend an abacus, since the fun beads will keep you amused. Think of it as a toy.

questioning the statistics by perlchild · 2003-03-17 10:05 · Score: 1

With the .com crash(mostly affecting webhosters, asp and other outsourcers), do you still believe in growth for linux on the server side.

As far as I know, everyone seems to take that as an article of faith, despite the fact that more of the "bricks and mortars" prefer iis because they have the personnel for it(MCSE, MCDA, MCSA, MCP).
Further, do you believe certification can help fight this trend? As Linux would be fighting on equal ground, with certified personnel, and such?

Does the ibm/suse alliance help Suse sell lots of copies, or does it sell more hardware, or is it more of a 50/50 deal?

Does the trend towards virtualizing hardware help sell copies? What about using IBM OS/390 hardware, has that strategy panned out for Suse, as opposed to say I386 or IA-64 ?

The biggest stumbling block... by pelorus · 2003-03-17 10:16 · Score: 1

...in the development of Linux as a viable desktop OS - are the people currently using it.

The actual USE of Linux as a desktop OS just requires a bit of knowledge, either on the part of the user or on the part of the installer. The various successes out there in governments and schools show that it can be done.

Ok, I'll bite too: by the_real_tigga · 2003-03-17 10:22 · Score: 1

MODERATORS!

If you mod this post "Funny +1" I'll shoot myself, too!

--
my .sig is better than yours.

Forget Statistics by 4of12 · 2003-03-17 10:43 · Score: 1

So statistics are notoriously unreliable for Linux installations since the licensing often doesn't restrict unlimited reproduction nor require registration with a counting authority.

Will someone find it important enough to fund a real Linux deployment census? Will they release that information publicly (either MS or Sun might not)?

Won't anecdotal evidence continue to play the larger role in the success of Linux than measured deployment levels? (Someone said that a major switch by a Fortune 500 company would be a key landmark.)

I agree with the analogy to the groundswell effect that brought the IBM PC into the corporate world in the early 1980s against the IT establishment , who were the last to climb on board in most cases.

--
"Provided by the management for your protection."

Re:Forget Statistics by ClosedSource · 2003-03-17 11:44 · Score: 1

"I agree with the analogy to the groundswell effect that brought the IBM PC into the corporate world in the early 1980s against the IT establishment , who were the last to climb on board in most cases."

Well, I think the opposition of the IT establishment to early PC use is somewhat exaggerated. In the early days the PC was replacing typewriters not corporate computers and most IT departments didn't offer any competing services such as word processing.

Of course a lot of the growth came from small companies that never had owned a computer before.

Drat it! by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 10:52 · Score: 1, Interesting

I meant the whole comment as a half-jest. The joke lay partially in the fact that Slashdot polls are disclaimed as wildly inaccurate, and partly in the fact that you'd need a unique CowboyNeal option for each poll.

I should've posted anonymously...i don't like being accused of karma whoring or trolling. I expected to be modded "Funny"...I think there are some pretty shallow moderators out there for it to get modded "Interesting".

mmol_6453

mOr:e by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 11:17 · Score: 0

Desktop GIS (ArcInfo)
Macromedia's multimedia stuff (flash, etc)

Any other fairly significant software markets Linux is weak in (besides games) or developers whose support would boost Linux (besides Microsoft)?

Problems with the survey by Yankovic · 2003-03-17 11:37 · Score: 2, Insightful

Hi--

I actually have a bit of a problem with the survey. From where did they recruity the sources? To quote from the article:

Representative Samples
When conducting demand side primary research it becomes important to recruit the participants (or samples) from sources that are as unbiased as possible. During the five years that EDC has been recruiting developers to participate in surveys this ideal has continuously been foremost in our efforts. Consequently, though we have used over 100 different individual sources for recruiting, the following principles have always been and will always be applied:

No vendor lists have ever been used in EDC subscription surveys and none have ever been added to the panel
No platform specific lists have ever been used in any EDC general subscription surveys and none have ever been added to the general panel*
No language specific lists have ever been used in any EDC subscriptions surveys and none have ever been added to the panel
In this way we provide the most eclectic and unbiased sample available anywhere. With thousands of developers chosen in a deliberately unbiased way from a wide variety of neutral lists, our data truly provides in-depth looks at representative samples of the developer population.

*Note: our Linux Development survey does use lists targeted for the Linux platform, however all developers recruited for that survey are kept in a separate database and are not used in any surveys other than Linux specific ones.

Clearly, it says that they use Linux specific developer lists, which indicates that this is not the broader community at all, but a very specific set of Linux developers (of the size and scope of which we have no idea). My question is this: Given how much the /. community pokes holes in studies like this when they come out of Windows, shouldn't the /. community hold data to higher standards, even if it does support their cause?

desktop or "web desktop" by danny · 2003-03-17 12:10 · Score: 1

I've wondered about that too. But Google is counting "web desktops", not desktops more generally. Most of the momentum in Linux desktop growth is I think coming from corporates starting to move over (see the SuSE interview, where the guy said they were getting one 1000+ seat company enquiry a day), and (outside the IT industry) most employees don't do much web surfing at work.

Danny.

--
I have written over 900 book reviews

This is why by lingqi · 2003-03-17 12:13 · Score: 1

Because we don't have anything better, if you don't count Macs.

I mean, I'd love for OSS community to develop something with no strings attached, like BeOS, say. but it's not about doing that - it's about getting things ported for it, and having COMPANIES BELIEVE IN IT - the latter takes a lot of time.

With the momentum behind linux (and possibly FreeBSD, to a lesser extent), what other OSS alternatives are there for a real desktop operating system?

As far as "company belief," many game makers are releasing linux native versions now - it took how many years? If we all made this whiz-bang new OS tomorrow, how many years do you think it would take for them to start releasing for it? before IBM spills the dough for a widget-OS consulting dept and runs commercials? when CIO maganize talk about your widget-OS strategy?

The fact is, all of this takes time, and by the time something is "ready" for the desktop, they would have been loaded down with baggages too. Revolution is nice and good - but their results have usually been less-than-extrodinary.

--

My life in the land of the rising sun.

Re:This is why by Junks+Jerzey · 2003-03-18 02:51 · Score: 1

Because we don't have anything better, if you don't count Macs.

This is the kind of reply you expect from someone who has only been exposed to Windows and UNIX-variants.

"Operating system" is an outdated concept. All the cruft accumulated from Big Iron machines in the 1970s no longer applies in many or most cases. The mobile device people have this nailed, in that they're writing lean and mean operating environments with less memory thant you'd need to load gcc on a desktop. Rather than cloning UNIX yet again, the goal is small, clean, and tailored to what users need. Linux is more of a retro fantasy for 1970s system administrators, but a large number of people have been fooled into thinking that it's the cutting edge of OS design. In reality, we shouldn't even be thinking about operating systems.

What I have seen during my job hunt... by lanner · 2003-03-17 12:56 · Score: 2, Insightful

I am located in Orlando Florida and have been looking for work over the last six months or so. I have been checking job ads within the Titusville, Melbourne, Orlando, and Tampa metro areas. This excludes Miami and Jacksonville metros.

I have seen a few ads requesting GNU/Linux experience. Only one or two mentioned FreeBSD, which is a real shame. A lot request Solaris, AIX, and HPUX. By far, the most significant requests are for Microsoft systems administrators though (75% or greater) You have to consider that this is not Silicon Valley over here. There are a lot of government contractors, call centers, real estate business, health care, and banking. Almost all of the companies that requested GNU/Linux experience were small or had been in business for less than 20 years.

I would say that out of the last 100 unique job posts that I have seen, 10 have requested GNU/Linux experience. One even requested that you had to submit your resume in Open Office format, which I think is a great way to weed out some of the fools.

One ad requested Debian. The rest were Red Hat. I do not recall requests for any other distributions.

It is of worthy note that Largo Florida is part of the Tampa metro area. You may remember some stories on Slashdot about how the local government of Largo uses GNU/Linux. And yes, I have seen several requests for GNU/Linux over in the Tampa metro area. A few in Orlando, and few to none in Titusville and Melbourne.

Hi to anyone in Orlando who go to hear John Hall speak about a week ago! I was there, and was the one that stole the last chocolate cookie! Ha ha!

projections aren't statistics by joefubar · 2003-03-17 13:01 · Score: 1

Sorry, but there is a big difference! The projection could be based on a trend that has statistics behind it, but since 2004 hasn't happened yet, IDG basically guesses based on the current trend. Hence, no statistics.

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==>Lancer---

I am a Developer, where's my poll? by huckamania · 2003-03-17 14:02 · Score: 1

How come every time I hear about a poll, no one ever asks me?

Seriously though, polling should be a more rigid business. Without knowing who was polled, how the polling group was selected, the questions and the cookie cutter answers (which are usually not comprehensive), there's no way to judge if the poll actually means anything.

Could you post all of the above information for each of the polls that you mention? That might clear up some of the confusion.

How long after before Saddam waves a white hankie? by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-17 14:34 · Score: 0

How long after the start of the first-person-shooter before Saddam waves a white hankie?

When will linux on the desktop arrive? by Bob+Bitchen · 2003-03-17 16:04 · Score: 1

Look at
zeitgeist

and try to convince me that it has already arrived, but since you cannot do that try to tell me when it will. You're not allowed to cite any surveys or studies. Use only real examples that can be easily confirmed. And no analogies allowed either. Oh...and good luck.

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Re:If I had skills I might... by unitron · 2003-03-17 16:39 · Score: 1

" "No, you don't have to be smart to work with computers". '

No, just extremely masochistic.

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I see even classic Slashdot is now pretty much unusable on dial up anymore.

uh oh by Zork+the+Almighty · 2003-03-17 18:06 · Score: 1

Be wary of any article containing the phrase "but the ... data confirms one of my pet theories". End of story.

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In Soviet America the banks rob you!

Linux counter by rastos1 · 2003-03-18 01:00 · Score: 2, Informative

> ..but how can we really count who is using what?

By registering on Linux counter?

interesting idea by lingqi · 2003-03-18 12:17 · Score: 1

but I cannot agree with you.

That's like saying "We don't need object orientation because assembly is perfectly good for whacking out efficient and fast code."

There is a place for everything - I think OS is here to stay because it is an important layer between hardware and software (applications).

The reason you can get away with tiny OS's on PDAs is because you hardly need the expandability (pci slots?), compatibility (across multiple platforms), and features (multi-tasking, particularly) of desktop systems that has become very diverse in its functions (from email to games to servers to video-edit).

So, while I don't think Linux is "cutting edge" in many areas, I still hold the ground that there isn't any reasonable way to go around without it.

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My life in the land of the rising sun.

the issue is fair comparisons by Anonymous Coward · 2003-03-24 06:04 · Score: 0

I thought your article makes a good effort to compare apples to apples, and not to oranges. I can think of some other ways to do it, and wonder if any of these data are available:
1. free choice installs. Our choice of OSs is often very circumscribed - by what comes on the machine (esp for newbies), by what our organization requires, etc. But some people do have free choice, esp at home. When people find that they need to replace, say Win98SE, have a free choice (e.g., at home), and are reasonably capable at computers, what do they choose?
2. overwrites. When a computer comes with an OS (eg, WinXP, jaguar), but the purchaser immediately replaces it, what is the OS of choice?
3. no-precedent decisions. Sometimes an organization will make a decision in which they begin by assuming no history with any OS. What do they choose?
Do we know the answers to any of these questions?

I'm shure Germany is allmost there. by Qbertino · 2003-03-24 08:10 · Score: 1

That is a very good question you ask.
Also due to the point that you define that there *is* a point where critical mass will boost the Linux Desktop usage. For standard and Office usage the Linux Desktop has effectively reached parrity with 'doze about a year ago (with the arival of acceptable browsing in Netscape 6.1) and since then everyone with a PC I've met has said they'll ditch M$ as soon as official support for Win2K ceases. Even Web Editors and other folks you'd usually supect to really not care. German authorities are switching a dime a dozen just now - and germans 'believe' in authorities too.
Everybody with a PC knows a geek-friend or two pressing the issue on the superior alternative Linux. On top of that Germany has a subtacial lead in the highest amount of Linux users per capita. Also there is serious pro-OSS lobying going on in the "German Federal Office for Security in Information Technology" ("Bundesamt für Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik": http://www.bsi.de/ ) which pops up sort of every odd week in common media.
Bottom Line:
I highly suspect M$ to start losing considerable ground in Germany within the next 18 months. Then will have the first figures for required 'critical mass'.

And maybe/probably a first peek of 'M$ Linux.
*shudder*

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We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca

Would Linus care? by EmbeddedJanitor · 2003-03-24 08:11 · Score: 1

and if he doesn't then why do we?

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Engineering is the art of compromise.

Tuhduh-boom! But the real story is... by leonbrooks · 2003-03-24 13:02 · Score: 1

WineX

Nothing quite matches the power of a direct, pithy answer to whip the carpet out from under a troll's feet... but WineX is only part of the answer. Win4Lin is also only part of the answer. Whole-of-machine emulators like Bochs and VMWare are not the answer. WINE seems to be close to the right the answer, and WineX is an intgeresting side-branch of it.

The real right answer, however, is World Domination for Linux - even if you're a BSD fan.

Why?

Because once your favourite app is ported to Linux, it's ported to anywhere. Linux is a damn sight easier for another Unix (thinking specifically of *BSD here) to emulate even in binary than Windows is.The difference between Linux and, say, NetBSD for most applications is completely buried in automake or any similar portability tool. Of course, wrapping it in something like SDL or Qt wipes out a lot of the interface differences as well. Once an application is portable (OpenOffice.org, Mozilla, Konqueror, The GIMP, KOffice), it can compete on its merits rather than its application burden.

As Bill and his buddies well know, that means `Goodbye, Microsoft'. Which is why they're working their little asses off trying to meld all of their apps into one inscrutible, indivisible, Palladium-wrapped, Microsoft-certified unmanageable blob while they still have the market share to force it down their users' throats.

Rapid World Domination by Libre software is the only way available to us to stop this.

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Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing

Drag-n-drop, right click, WTF are you on about? by leonbrooks · 2003-03-24 13:13 · Score: 1

No drag-and-drop? No right-click?

What are you on about? Right-clicking on practically anything in KDE gives me a translucent, drop-shadowed menu of context actions. Drag and drop works fine, I printed a file with it this morning.

As to the rest of your comments, they also puzzle me. I have a dozen tiny icons in my taskbar for my most-used functions, anything which doesn't fit in there quickly and automatically makes it way into the most-used-apps section of the K menu, and there's a few icons on my desktop (things like bzflag) for me to toy with for a few minutes before I finish up for the day. My icons are nicely lined up, and labelled with my choice of font. None of my buttons have labels because I don't need them but the option to add labels to everything is about 3 or 4 clicks away. I've left tooltip-on-hover enabled for when others use my desktop, but I very seldom use it myself. Both of my favourite browsers support tabbing, which combined with multiple instances makes all of my open web pages both readable and easy to manage.

If you want simple, this desktop will do simple. But there's ample widgetry within easy reach for when I want it, and if you want complex, this desktop will blow your mind.

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Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing

(0) it's cheaper; but... by leonbrooks · 2003-03-24 13:52 · Score: 1

(1) that it's open source and (2) that it's more secure than Windows

Actually (and unfortunately) the answer that most often wins decision-makers' hearts is (0) it's cheaper than Windows. I say `unfortunately' because raw cost overlooks many other benefits of Linux, and looking at the problem in such simple terms allows Microsoft to easily confuse and mislead the same decision-makers.

IRL, (3) it's more reliable than Windows and (4) it's more manageable than Windows (both of which, in the end, relate to costs) are also good business answers, but the best answers still; haven't been touched.

How about: (5) It frees you from control of a corporation which will one day compete with and destroy you?

How about: (6) You can do literally anything legal with it? Your average PHB literally will never get this unless perhaps years down the track after it's been well demonstrated and the savings costed out. But see below.

There's a host of other reasonably well-defined advantages like (7) it's more portable, possibly freeing you from a hardware-supplier tyranny as well; (8) it's more efficient, allowing use of cheaper hardware, or a slower replacement cycle, or greater capacity from the same hardware; (9) it's more modular and boundaries are better defined, meaning that things like thin clients work better, and changing the proxy settings on your web browser don't automatically break a Python script using OS calls to export data to a webserver (/ME waves to ShaunP).

Now, an illustration.

A bloke called out for help from the Linux community in Australia because his boss had, out of the blue, come to him and asked him to undo the extensive integration of FOSS components into their network, `because we have always been a Microsoft shop' and stating that he'd only acceded to the changes because said bloke has asked for them.

Now the ludicrous thing about this when one started to look into it was that the FOSS changes were already saving this company immense amounts of money and downtime, and the FOSS invasion had only just begun.

FOSS had already demonstrated its worth. One factor which is helping to stave off this disaster is costing out the replacement software (e.g., he was spitting out PDFs on demand from one of his servers, to replace this functionality alone would cost a copy of Distiller for practically every workstation in the company), but a lot of what he was doing with one-liner scripts would have taken some very expensive packages and a lot of work to replicate using Windows technology; e.g. a certain amount of CMS happened to some of those PDF files when they were printed. One of their main servers had been dying almost daily, but since the switch to (untuned) FOSS had never fallen over, was responding faster, coping with higher loads, and doing more complicated things. All of this and more from a very recent convert to FOSS. He had reliably automated so many things, and had the IT department doing so much more for so little effort, that replacing him and his FOSS with Windows would involve two or three people and sharply reduced service.

But the thing which really upset our bloke was that going back to Windows would mean occasionally having to leave social events or wake up at stupid o'clock in the morning to go and fix a downed server. He had become used to actually sleeping soundly again at night. (-:

This is a cut-down version of the summary, but see if you can spot how many of the GNU/Linux (happy birthday, Richard) advantages are involved even so.

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Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing

`urpmi nameofprogram' - gee, that was tough! by leonbrooks · 2003-03-24 14:08 · Score: 1

Mind you, Windows does install stuff without even asking. I guess - for a while - that's easier than typing a one-liner or clicking on items in a long list. (-:

And before you go on about lock-in to a single supplier (compared with Microsoft? Ahuk, ahuk...), you can add as many alternate package sources as you wish (GUI here, complete URPMI insructions here), some people have begun to notice how easy it is and even the putative lockers-in endorse it.

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Got time? Spend some of it coding or testing

Do you agree question. by saden1 · 2003-03-24 18:27 · Score: 0

Without substantial amount of support from game developers Linux will never become competitive in the consumer desktop market. Do you agree with this statement? If no, why?

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