Asteroid Highlighted as Impact Threat

Maggie McKee writes "The asteroid Apophis has been traversing the void of space for untold years; in just a few decades time it will make a very close pass to Earth, and could make an unwelcome stop on our planet's surface. Even still, it's nothing to get too worked up about. The 20-million-tonne object has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting the Pacific Ocean in early April of 2036. If it did hit, it could trigger a tsunami that would do an untold amount of damage to the California coastline and many other places on Earth. Despite the low level of the threat, it's still a real enough danger to prompt the United Nations to develop a protocol about the scenario. We'll get a closeup look at the object in 2029, and at that point we should have a better idea of what 2036 will bring us."

Comments

Call Bruce Willis

[Corporate Troll]

We have some drilling to do!

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[sconeu]

No, it's Apophis, so we call Jack O'Neill. Those darned Goa'uld!

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[jfclavette]

Talk about missing the point. In a few decades Bruce Willis might be DEAD ! Where does that leave us ?

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[D-Cypell]

I, for one, vote that we let the asteroid come, and destroy the planet in an effort prevent the potential catastrophe of a follow-up to that movie.

Anyway, with any luck, some smart intern has already pointed out that titling a movie 'armageddon' should, generally, rule out a sequel.

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[Corporate Troll]

You have no idea how much that comment made me laugh.... Mod this guy up Funny, okay?

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[edwardpickman]

He might still be around. If Keith Richards can live this long Willis could still be alive. He maybe a head in a fish bowl but there's still hope.

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[Anonymous Coward]

That's why they have remakes every 10 years or so...

There'll be a younger, more emo version of Willis. May be one of those boy band idols...

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[twentynine]

ben affleck was trained in the same field

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[RealGrouchy]

Talk about missing the point. In a few decades Bruce Willis might be DEAD ! Where does that leave us ?

Shit--just to be sure, then, we'd better send him now!

- RG>

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[hotdiggitydawg]

If he's our last hope, I think I'll root for the asteroid...

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[mr_matticus]

Tell that to the people who made "Final Destination 2" (and 3).

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[slim-t]

Didn't he already die saving the Earth? Do we have to rely on Ben Affleck?

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[Bifurcati]

He is! He's a ghost! Didn't you see the movie? ;)

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[TriezGamer]

Let's not forget Final Fantasy ...

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[albyrne5]

Or "Neverending Story" ... uh no, wait a minute ...

Re:Call Bruce Willis

[kalirion]

Personally I'd vote for Harrison Ford, with Aerosmith as his crew.

great

[Anonymous Coward]

If we determined in 2029 that it was going to hit in 2036, our governments probably wouldn't be able to get their shit together quickly enough to do anything.

Re:great

[Corporate Troll]

Look at the bright side: we won't need to fix the Unix date overflow ;-)

Re:great

[sporkme]

it is 2004 mn4. Near dupe article. Near earth asteroid. Eh.

Re:great

[gutnor]

The first question they will ask: "Is the asteroid man-made" ... Since the answer is "no" there is nothing to worry about, and anyway the cost would be too much to bear for the global economy.

Re:great

[sumdumass]

That would only be true if the likleyhood of fixing the problem would actualy hve results simular to what was intended.

Re:great

[Teresita]

If we determined in 2029 that it was going to hit in 2036, our governments probably wouldn't be able to get their shit together quickly enough to do anything.

Besides Congress passing a non-binding resolution condemning the asteroid, if it hits the Pacific, it's gonna throw a lot of water vapor into the stratosphere, and water vapor is a greenhouse gas. That means the Kyoto II countries are going to have to move their 2020 --> 2050 CO2 reduction benchmarks from 15% to maybe 20% or even 25%, and we might have to look at maybe somebody possibly broaching the subject with China that, golly, you're the world's lone economic superpower now, do you think maybe we could bump your status out of "developing nation" and let you join the big boys who don't need waivers?

Re:great

[JamesTRexx]

[doomsday thinking]
What, you think our governments would be able to get their shit together before 2036 knowing this now?
[/doomsday thinking]

Re:great

[Nyeerrmm]

The US government was able to pull off Apollo in 8 years, and that was having to develop a lot of new technology instead of simply reimplementing them. I think that serious of a threat would allow even a single government to be able to devote the funds to be able to complete such a project in time.

Re:great

[Slur]

Having just now watched The Andromeda Strain I am dubious about our chances...

No Worries

[blantonl]

untold amount of damage to the California coastline

Cancel that request... nothing to be worried about... nothing to see here. Move along folks..

Re:No Worries

[iknowcss]

I live on the California coast you insensitive clod!

Re:No Worries

[Anonymous Coward]

Let me be the first to say, "Surf's up!" Er... maybe a bad idea.

untold

[dangitman]

That's the great untold thing about this story. For untold years, slashdot editors have been writing untold dupes, while governments around the world have been avoiding getting their untold shit together for untold years. When will the untold story be told?

leaving nothing but a cool, beautiful serenity...

[Rhesusmonkey]

...called Arizona Bay

1 in 45,000 chance

[celardore]

I like those odds!

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Corporate Troll]

My wife plays the lottery, my bets are on total annihilation before she wins....

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[flyingsquid]

These calculations sound like something of a black art. Originally, this asteroid was supposed to have a 1 in 5500 chance of hitting earth, then it was downgraded to 1 in 24,000, now it's 1 in 45,000... apparently the calculations are easily thrown off by tiny differences in the measured velocity http://space.newscientist.com/article/dn9203-risk- of-asteroid-smashing-into-earth-reduced.html%5D.

Even so, 1 in 45,000 sounds a bit high. I can't claim to know anything about orbital mechanics, but there are other ways to approach the problem. One of them is to look at history- written history, archaeology, and geology. There are no written accounts, as far as I know, of a meteorite causing significant numbers of human casualties, either through an impact or through a tsunami induced by impact. To put this in perspective, earthquakes have killed many hundreds of thousands of people in the past century in Mexico, China, Iran, Peru, San Francisco, Japan, Pakistan and so on; older earthquakes have killed massive numbers of people- often hundreds of thousands- in China, Iran, Portugal, Syria, Sicily, etc. Tsunamis have killed hundreds of thousands, recently in the Indian Ocean; Krakatoa killed a huge number of people when it blew up and created a tsunami. Explosive eruption in Crete seems to have wiped the Minoan civilization off the map. Floods kill people so routinely that it's hard to even keep all the flooding events around the world straight.

What this says is that throughout human history, in terms of natural disasters, the earthquakes, tsunamis (induced by earthquake or eruption), volcanic eruptions and floods have been far more deadly than asteroids and comets. The geological record suggests that at points, asteroid impacts have been devastating enough to destroy most of the existing ecosystem for periods of time (as indicated by the extinction of plankton, plants, and herbivores at the end of the Cretaceous) but that events of this magntitude are vanishingly rare- once every hundred million years or so. Smaller events are a more realistic worry, but even then they aren't that common. I've been to Meteor Crater, in Arizona and I'm sure it was a doozy, and it would have sucked to be within a few miles of it, but Meteor Crater is notable precisely because things like it are so rare. If meteors were that common, we would expect to see a lot more of them dotting the deserts than we do.

I don't mean to put down people who are (for a refreshing change) taking a long-term, big picture view, but I think that there are more commonplace disasters we need to worry about, like earthquakes and tsunamis, which involve more boring, mundane solutions, like good building codes, tsunami warning networks, tsunami evacuation sirens, and flood control.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Teresita]

I don't mean to put down people who are (for a refreshing change) taking a long-term, big picture view, but I think that there are more commonplace disasters we need to worry about, like earthquakes and tsunamis, which involve more boring, mundane solutions, like good building codes, tsunami warning networks, tsunami evacuation sirens, and flood control.

This is a case where the law of the numerous small is a comfort. Back in the 90's on the Art Bell show there was a nutcase who kept talking about a mega-earthquake that was going to raise Atlantis and sink the Rocky Mountains at the same time, and he even sold post-earthquake maps. An earthquake big enough to do that would involve the release of enough energy to melt the crust of North America. It would be a spike in the probability distribution of shakers. Before we see a Magnitude 12 earthquake it stands to reason we'd see a dozen or so magnitude 11 ones, and hundreds of mag 10's. And before we get smacked by a 20 megaton asteroid we ought to get smacked by a dozen 2 megatonners, and hundreds of 200 kilotonners.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[DeadChobi]

What this says is that every so often something terrible like an asteroid smacking us does happen. What that means is that if the odds are high that this one will hit us, we should actually focus on planning for it like we do with all the other natural disasters instead of ignoring it because it rarely happens. That's like calling nature's bluff, and nature is quite often a very mean poker player. If we have a chance to save lives in a few decades, why not start planning now? It's not wasted energy when someone's life is involved. We already plan for lifesaving in floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, et. al.. Just add "giant tsunami triggered by an asteroid impact wiping the California coastline clean" to your list.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Ardipithecus]

People spend tons of $ on the lotto, with odds from 1:23M and up.

In comparison, this thing is guaranteed...

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[toddestan]

The thing about asteroids and comets is that they are out there in space for us to observe, and we can predict their movements pretty well. That means that unlike an earthquake or a volcano, we can know about an asteroid or comet strike years - even decades in advance. And that means we have time to do something about it. We could actually prevent these disasters. Given that a strike could wipe out the human race entirely, that justs makes it even more prudent to divert some resources to asteroids and comets.

Also, when studying history, don't forget the asteroid that came down over Siberia in 1908. Luckily few were hurt, but if that happened over a major city today, it could postentially kill millions.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[frup]

With out reading the article, how the fuck can they determine where it will hit, yet have such a variable chance of of hitting. Is this just because the pacific ocean is the easiest guess?

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[pixelguru]

There are no written accounts, as far as I know, of a meteorite causing significant numbers of human casualties, either through an impact or through a tsunami induced by impact.

Every society on earth has a great flood story woven into their mythology, and many stories of fire and light from "the heavens." Just because they didn't call it a meteorite doesn't mean it didn't happen.

The Tunguska event had the uncanny luck of happening over land and in one of the world's least populated areas. What are the odds of THAT happening again?

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Yahweh Doesn't Exist]

>The Tunguska event had the uncanny luck of happening over land and in one of the world's least populated areas. What are the odds of THAT happening again?

something like (1/45000) * (1/10) ?

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[SkyDude]

The Tunguska event had the uncanny luck of happening over land and in one of the world's least populated areas. What are the odds of THAT happening again?

Well, if it happens over California, does that qualify as least populated by intelligent beings?

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Korin43]

Not guaranteed. Check the odds. 1:45000 != 1:1

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[khallow]

There are no written accounts, as far as I know, of a meteorite causing significant numbers of human casualties, either through an impact or through a tsunami induced by impact.

How would they know that it was a meteorite? Assuming there were survivors to witness it? And of course, tsunami from meteorite impacts would look much like tsunami from earthquakes, volcanos, and undersea landslides.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[fyngyrz]

Well, if it happens over California, does that qualify as least populated by intelligent beings?

No... that'd be if it happened over Washington, D.C.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[symbolset]

....I think that there are more commonplace disasters we need to worry about, like earthquakes and tsunamis, which involve more boring, mundane solutions, like good building codes, tsunami warning networks, tsunami evacuation sirens, and flood control.

You worry about those things. Let the Asteroid worriers worry about asteroids. There are billions of us. We can divide the worrying up and not all worry about the same thing. That way when you figure out a way to save us all from earthquakes, you won't immediately drop dead of ebola.

Seriously, if somebody doesn't get a plan for dealing with asteroids, mankind will end. No Earthquake, tsunami, famine, plague, global warming or war will do that. It isn't a question of if the asteroid is coming, but when. It's not likely to hit today, and on the 112th day of 2076 it's equally unlikely. In the fullness of time it's not just likely, it is certain. There is no more "realistic" worry than the certain end of all mankind. If the next dinosaur killer arrives and we have no plan for preventing it or dealing with it, or at least have an offsite backup, there will be no second chance; we will have had our go at Darwin's test and failed. Please -- for the sake of the children -- leave the asteroid scientists to their work.

Oh, and if you figure out a cure for tsunamis that doesn't involve moving our huts further from the sea do please let us know.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[AJWM]

One of them is to look at history- written history, archaeology, and geology. There are no written accounts, as far as I know, of a meteorite causing significant numbers of human casualties, either through an impact or through a tsunami induced by impact.

Well, the dinosaurs would have left written accounts, but they were all dead.

More seriously, we do have historical record of even minor meteor showers causing casualties, the biggest reportedly in Chiing-yang, China in 1490, in an apparent Tunguska-like event, killing a possible "tens of thousands". Mostly its onesies and twosies, though. Tunguska itself, detonating in the middle of nowhere, Sibera, injured the 20 people who were within 50 km of the blast, and killed two. Thousands of reindeer were killed.

Should Apophis (or something that size) hit Earth, the energy release would be about 10 to 20 times that of the Tunguska or Arizona impacts (those were in the 10-20 megaton range), and about 2 or 3 times that of the Krakatoa explosion. Since 3/4 of the planet is water-covered, odds are that most large impacts hit water and cause damage through the result tsunamis. (And yes, we get a few in the several-kiloton range each year - mostly in the middle of nowhere - as has been documented by surveillance satellites.)

Sure, Apophis is no Dinosaur Killer, but it could cause quite a mess depending on if and where it hits.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Schraegstrichpunkt]

You obviously don't work in the insurance business.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Baron_Yam]

Err... did you read the post you so snottily rebutted? Reading comprehension is almost as important as maths, you know. People play the lottery, imagining 1:23,000,000 is a good possibility. Based on that logic, 1:45,000 should be perceived as close to 1:1.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Disseminated]

Balderdash! That last asteroid that hit killed, as you pointed out, THE DINOSAURS. Who took over for them? MAMMALS. I fear no asteroid! My thick wooly coat, high volume-to-surface-area ratio, and ability to bear and nurse live young will win the day! Huzzah!

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[rickshaf]

I'm having this fantasy: A bunch of our distant predecessors have a website called "slashdino". An item is posted pointing out that an asteroid being observed by saurian astronomers has a 1-in-45K chance of hitting the planet. The vast majority of the postings point out that there are much more important potential disasters to which attention must be paid, etc., etc., etc.. The postings all seem oh, so reasonable. Of course, there are no more "saurian astronomers", because their fellows didn't listen to them.... What folks who quote an incredibly low probability that an asteroid will actually hit the Earth are missing is that, if such an asteroid (or comet) does hit, the probability is nearly 1.000 that it will result in the demise of our species! This certainly isn't an original thought of mine, but we need to keep on hammering this point home. Our very survival depends on our taking action to develop a system for bumping potentially hazardous asteroids into paths that miss the Earth!

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[cammoblammo]

They don't know exactly where it will intersect Earth's orbit, but they do know, within an hour or two when it will cross our path. At that time of day (or night, whatever) the Pacific Ocean will be more or less facing the direction the asteroid's coming from. Given the size of the Pacific it's reasonably likely that if the asteroid does hit Earth, it'll be somewhere there.

Scientists may also have an idea of the latitude or longitude it will hit, narrowing the window further.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[KDR_11k]

Look, if he was dying, he wouldn't bother to write 'arghhhh!'. He'd just say it!

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[istartedi]

The Tunguska event had the uncanny luck of happening over land and in one of the world's least populated areas

It also happened several decades before a nuclear power could misinterpret the event as a first-strike. AFAIK, North American monitoring can tell the difference between something like an asteroid vs. a missile, based on trajectory. They probably coordinate with other types of observers too, since they're monitoring things like space junk already. The irregular streak of a comet or asteroid is very different from an incoming missile. I'm not too concerned about a comet explosion in California being misinterpreted. OTOH, what if that system fails somehow, and all they have to go on is "we have reports of a huge explosion that just wiped out LA". How will they respond?

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Der Reiseweltmeister]

I've only taken one course in orbital mechanics (actually, astrodynamics), but I think its safe to say that calculating the trajectory of a heavenly body based on measurements of its velocity is a bit more of an exact science than trying to figure out whether some historical account was referring to a meteor strike in the middle of an ocean hundreds of miles from the closest historian.

You've got to keep in mind that with the kinds of distances we're talking about here, a 1deg difference in measured trajectory can be the difference between a "near miss" (1000s of miles) and a direct hit. So the real science here is taking accurate measurements of its velocities, and updating those measurements as it gets closer to account for perturbations. Of course, you've also got to make sure you've got a decent model of the solar systems to put those measurements in. I'm guessing the 2-body approximation ain't gonna cut it here.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[zCyl]

Err, well, the expectation value is certainly a lot better in the case of the lottery than in the case of the asteroid.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[osu-neko]

There are no written accounts, as far as I know, of a meteorite causing significant numbers of human casualties, either through an impact or through a tsunami induced by impact.

Um, no. And, prior to the last couple of centuries, there were no written accounts of people dying of microbial infection, either, despite the fact that plagues killed millions. They knew millions died, but they didn't know it was caused by microorganisms, so they didn't write that. Human history may record the deaths of many people that were killed as a result of meteor impact, but we have no way of knowing, since they had no idea what caused the various disasters that befell them, so they didn't write that people were killed by a tsunami caused by an impact any more than they wrote people were killed by a plague caused by some microorganism. They just wrote people died in a tsunami or plague, leaving us to speculate about the cause.

It's been, what, a few decades since we could reliably correlate specific tsunamis to specific earthquakes? Certainly less than a century. History records many tsunamis, and we don't honestly know the cause of almost all of them, and never will. We know going forward, but we can't dig that info out for the past events.

It may very well be true that humans aren't killed by meteors more often that once every ten thousand years. It may also be true that humans are killed by meteors once every fifty years, on average. The historical record is consistent with either, given the large number of people killed by events in the past that we have no way of knowing if they were associated with meteors or not.

Now, big impacts that have worldwide devastation obvious to the fossil record, those we can tell you how frequently they occur. But minor events like those that would create a big wave, or a localized earthquake? We have no bloody idea how common those are, really. The fossil record doesn't help, since small scale events don't impact it, and human historical records don't help much, since until recently we didn't understand the world well enough to accurately record things like this.

Then add in random variation. It may be Tunguska like impacts happen every twenty years or so, on average, we're just having a dry spell these last couple centuries.

The fact of the matter is, we just don't know, and historical records don't help in this case. But we understand the laws of physics well enough to send spacecraft through the solar system with such incredible accuracy, it's like a golfer scoring a hole-in-one from 5000 miles away. Given this, I'll take odds calculated from our knowledge of an object's mass and orbital velocity over your speculations based on human historical records, thank you very much.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[meringuoid]

There are no written accounts, as far as I know, of a meteorite causing significant numbers of human casualties, either through an impact or through a tsunami induced by impact.

Then the Lord rained upon Sodom and upon Gomorrah brimstone and fire from the Lord out of heaven; and he overthrew those cities, and all the plain, and all the inhabitants of the cities, and that which grew upon the ground.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[TheLink]

Problem is who's going to pay for any countermeasures or workarounds?

That's why you might need more people worrying about it. Because in democracies, if the politicians aren't worried and the voters aren't worried, then the problem gets left to the "next bunch".

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[SkyDude]

Well, if it happens over California, does that qualify as least populated by intelligent beings?

No... that'd be if it happened over Washington, D.C.

Duh....of course, you're right. CA would be the second place.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Silicon Jedi]

Umm.... that was Tesla's death-ray...

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Marcos Eliziario]

You americans are so self-centered! Every intelligent brazilian knows that'd be if the asteroid hit Brasilia (Brazil's capital). Duh!

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Marcos Eliziario]

I can imagine an even worse scenario where Russia and/or China feared that the US would interpret it as a first strike, and thus launch a preventive attack. And maybe, the NATO could also decide to launch their tactical missiles against Russia, just in case....

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[drinkypoo]

It's at least as likely, and probably far more likely, that was the result of a volcanic eruption.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[celardore]

You obviously don't work in the insurance business.
I used to. An 'Act of God' is always going to be the insurance get-out "trump card" clause, no matter how well prepared for or what the odds are.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[notnAP]

I agree, especially to the black art reference. It's still very approximate.

That makes me laugh out loud when I read in the same summary "it could trigger a tsunami that would do an untold amount of damage to the California coastline and many other places on Earth." Implied is the idea that we have an idea where it will hit the Earth. We're not sure if it will hit or be 100,000 miles away, but we can say it will hit the Pacific.

OK, I'll grant that TFA seems to be a little less obscure - in between the lines you can see the statistical assumption that whatever hits the Earth has a higher probability of hitting the very large Pacific than hitting, say, the Weber grill in my back yard.
But still, it's attempts like these to personalize the science that make me laugh.

reporter: An asteroid may hit the Earth, wiping out all life.
Joe Q. Stupid: *shrug*
reporter: An asteroid may hit the Earth, and it'll be bigger than El Nino.
Joe Q. Stupid: I'm sorry, what was that again?

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Raenex]

It's called artistic license. Haven't you seen Monty Python and the Holy Grail?

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Raenex]

Your fantasy reminds me of Nightfall.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Dystopian Rebel]

Insects have survived worse and outnumber you billions to one, you insensitive mammalian clod!

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[niktemadur]

Sounds like an extremely long shot, but considering odds vs payoff, it still warrants extremely close scrutiny.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Stephen Samuel]

There are no written accounts, as far as I know, of a meteorite causing significant numbers of human casualties, either through an impact or through a tsunami induced by impact. Well, if it was a big meteorite, then most of the people close enough to realize what it was didn't live long enough to write it down. Those people who were far enough away that there were survivors to write about it would have probably chalked it up to 'just' an earthquake and/or Tsunami.

It's rumored(-::-) that the dinosaurs wrote about their extinction-event meteorite, but almost none of their scrolls have survived, and we humans have misconstrued the few that have been found.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[rickshaf]

Hmmmm. I don't remember having the late, great, Dr. Asimov's short story in mind. I merely wanted to point out that, if we get hit by a big enough object, probabilities won't matter, and we won't survive, regardless of how reasonable our plans seemed. I teach introductory astronomy at a community college, and I've often made the joke in my lecture about PHAs that "the dinosaurs didn't have a planetary defense sytstem. Have you seen any dinosaurs around lately?" Of course, very few of us have any starkly original thoughts. I'm pretty sure I haven't. We mostly build upon what we've been taught and what we've read.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Raenex]

I agree with your point that we need to defend against civilization enders. I wasn't trying admonish you for not being original, or saying that you plagiarized Nightfall. Your post just reminded me of Nightfall, and I really enjoyed the short story, so I wanted to point it out to others that may not have read it or elicit comment from those that had.

Sorry, there's no way you could have known that. I'll have to start taking seriously the proposition that the tone of 50% of internet messages are misunderstood. Must.. resist.. temptation for one-liners!

From the link above:

People often think the tone or emotion in their messages is obvious because they 'hear' the tone they intend in their head as they write," Epley explains.

At the same time, those reading messages unconsciously interpret them based on their current mood, stereotypes and expectations. Despite this, the research subjects thought they accurately interpreted the messages nine out of 10 times.

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Mr2cents]

That's possibly because there were no humans left post-impact to make those written accounts... Well, that's their own stupid fault, if they had paid any attention to those "duck and cover" movies, they would have been left unharmed now would they?

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[fifedrum]

so a little bit early it hits the Western Hemisphere directly, a little late and it hits Asia?

sounds like a real mess either way

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[rickshaf]

Actually, I didn't take offense at what you wrote, and didn't intend that you should take offense at what I wrote. (I tell folks with whom I disagree on a variety of issues that I hope we can disagree and remain friends.) What's ironic is that, if a "civilizaion-ender" should collide with Earth, it's view (should it even have one!) would likely be that it just got run over by a bus. Ours might be, "what did we ever do to YOU, that you should end the existence of our species!" Meanwhile, the Earth would continue in its orbit, oblivious to it all, while the whole Universe continues to dance to the tune of Gravity....

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[KDR_11k]

I have and the proper response would have been "Perhaps he was dictating?".

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Aristophrenia]

If it was Teslas death-ray, then I suppose we're safe since he is alive and well in the floriday keys in a bar with an owner who has a super-intelligent teleporting 3 year old daughter, living a few miles from an old storage site of NIKE rockets that will be used to distract a satilite from firing missles as a result of extremely rare cosmic events.

/End_Reference_To_Spider_Robinson

Re:1 in 45,000 chance

[Raenex]

Ah well, I suck.

Flynn's future history

[CRCulver]

In science-fiction writer Michael Flynn's future history starting with the novel Firestar , it's actually the fear of an asteroid that gets a corporate executive starting commercial space travel, jumping ahead of inefficient and bureacratic NASA. Well, it's been a few years now since the date Flynn suggested for the start of real orbital travel, not just the suborbital tourism we're seeing developed now. But nonetheless, I'd like to think that in the last couple of years we're showing enough progress that by 2039, we will have the technology. Even if the investment is motivated a little more by profit than by a desire to protect the human race.

Re:Flynn's future history

[shawb]

1) Set up shop and charge maybe... one billion dollars for a spot on a martian/lunar/orbital station. Charge even more for the luxury suites where you don't need to perform grueling physical labor.
2) Convince the uber-wealthy that there is a chance (maybe 1% is enough?) that all life on earth will be wiped out, the only way to ensure survival is to move onto the off-world colony. 3) Profit! 4) ?????

Re:Flynn's future history

[robably]

Even if we do have it by 2039, it's unlikely that commercial space travel could save more than a few people from an asteroid collision, and even then there'd better be somewhere for them to go or they won't be "saved" for very long. Better get started on the self-sufficient moon-base, the generation ships, the terraforming projects, and the transhumanism as well.

Re:Flynn's future history

[Metasquares]

Apophis is not a doomsday asteroid. It will cause a major disaster for a large area if it hits, but it should not be a threat to the survival of humanity to the extent that we need to build space colonies to avoid eradication.

Re:Flynn's future history

[KDR_11k]

I'd make it free for lawyers and middle management.

Re:who cares

[CRCulver]

I think I'd rather surf it in my robotic exoskeleton.

Call SG-1

[Anonymous Coward]

Not only did they kill Apophis, they also stopped an asteroid sent by Anubis.

Re:Call SG-1

[Ceriel Nosforit]

Ah, so this one is just a decoy for the other one for when it falls on our flanks. Tricky bastards, those aliens.

On the upside...

[dfn5]

we wouldn't have to worry about the Y2.038K bug.

Re:On the upside...

[Harmonious Botch]

Mods are on crack again. P gets modded troll, while the same point made in an earlier post is modded +5 funny.

Re:On the upside...

[HeadlessNotAHorseman]

Why call it the "Y2.038K" bug? Why not just say "Y2038"? Think of the millions of electrons that will be wasted by those extra two characters! If everybody just cut down on their electron usage, we could eliminate global warming! OTOH, if the asteroid comes and Bruce Willis is unavailable, global warming won't be such an issue.

Hmm.

[Anonymous Coward]

I can sleep soundly now that I know the U.N. is on the case. /sarcasm

Thanks

[mustafap]

>We'll get a closeup look at the object in 2029, and at that point we should have a better idea of what 2036 will bring us."

I'll stick a reminder in outlook.

Re:Thanks

[mpoloks]

don't have to... just keep reading /.

Re:Thanks

[ebonum]

Well, the odds of this thing hitting the earth in 2036 are 1 in 45,000. But the odds of a dupe on slashdot in 2036 are 1:1.

Re:Thanks

[Viceroy Potatohead]

That's the year that the brand new Windows Vienna comes out. Make sure you upgrade your version of Outlook, or you too will be part of the ultra-bot-net of the future.

In other words...

[TodMinuit]

If it did hit, it could trigger a tsunami that would do an untold amount of damage to the California coastline and many other places on Earth.

DOOMSDAY PARTY IN CHICAGO! WHOOO! *plays Conga by Miami Sound Machine*

Re:Strange write-up

[Overzeetop]

Statistically it's most likly to hit there because it's the largest named area? I don't know, I agree it sounds a bit fishy (npi) - maybe they figure if Google and MS are in the way of a potential tsunami, one or the other will figure out a solution. *shrug*

The new protocol point by point..

[plasmacutter]

1. set up an alert system:
  >>(green, no asteroid)
  >>(yellow, the asteroid MIGHT be near the earth)
  >>(orange, be careful when answering your door, IT MIGHT BE THE ASTEROID!)
  >>(red, we're already dead from the impact)

2. earmark government funds to buy swimsuits and surfboards for all californians

3. have congressional prayer sessions thanking the intelligent designer for wiping out the seat of all vice

4. only give recovery funds to predominently white areas.

5. Invade iraq in retaliation.

Re:The new protocol point by point..

[Polarism]

Insert:

2. With the help of DARPA setup a stock market based on above alerts.

Re:The new protocol point by point..

[plasmacutter]

actually i'm hitting myself for not adding "time to run back to your corpses" to number 4 in the list ; )

Re:The new protocol point by point..

[Stormx2]

6. ???

7. PROFIT!!!

Re:The new protocol point by point..

[DeadDecoy]

Dont forget to buy duct tape.

Ah, Wikipedia's dry humor.

[Kadin2048]

By far the best part of that article:

Using a (signed) 64-bit value introduces a new wraparound date in about 290 billion years, on Sunday, December 4, 292,277,026,596. However, this problem is not widely regarded as a pressing issue.

Re:Ah, Wikipedia's dry humor.

[Corporate Troll]

Thanks for the laugh man, I just linked to the article without reading it... That's gold comedy... Thanks!

Re:Ah, Wikipedia's dry humor.

[smaddox]

This will, however effect my plans of building a cryogenic chamber to freeze myself until they year 5,000,000,000,000. I would hate for the subtraction to overflow, and wake up in the year 707,722,973,404 BC. Actually, come to think of it, it would be interesting to see the universe before it was actually created.

Re:Ah, Wikipedia's dry humor.

[multi io]

Yeah, wait until you read about this (even less "pressing") issue:

11th millennium and beyond:

Technology

• December 4, 292,277,026,596: 64-bit Unix time resets to zero.
• December 31, 17,014,118,346,046,923,173,168,730,371,588,410: 128-bit Unix time resets to zero.

Re:Ah, Wikipedia's dry humor.

[noigmn]

And just as interesting if the 2006 version of unix still had the date and time right when the universe collapsed. Can just imagine die hards in the year 250,000,000,000 still using the old unix system, to control their lightspeed travel.

Re:Ah, Wikipedia's dry humor.

[Megane]

That's why OS X uses a double float for storing dates and times. When we get to the year 292 billion, OS X will still work, but the time will then only have a two second accuracy.

(Actually, it should stop ticking the clock at all without a patch, since you can't add one second any more. Or you could just add the seconds since startup to the time at startup.)

Re:Ah, Wikipedia's dry humor.

[adavies42]

Have you read A Deepness in the Sky?

Re:who cares

[robbiethefett]

i hope this wont fuck up my preorder of duke nukem forever!

Re:Strange write-up

[skewer]

How can you know where it would hit (Pacific Ocean) but not the exact date (only "early April of 2036")? It seems that the Heisenberg uncertainty principle applies to astronomy too.

Preparations

[oldmildog]

I'd better start stocking up on canned food and ice.

Get me a Rickenbacker guitar

[SamSim]

And a gigantic iron to stand on.

Re:Get me a Rickenbacker guitar

[tekrat]

Hah, there are FOUR, or at least four that get that joke... FLCL rules! Definitely one of the best anime series ever made (and only 6 episodes, how Police Squad is that?)...

Vespas are cool.

Re:Get me a Rickenbacker guitar

[SB5]

Robots with television sets for heads are cool too... THERE ARE FIVE LIGHTS.

The Pacific

[WombatDeath]

Just out of interest: if we don't know whether or not it's going to hit, how do we know that if it does it will land in the Pacific?

Re:The Pacific

[Chmcginn]

Figuring out the exact speed of an asteroid, relative to us, is apparently a tad easier than figuring out its exact course. According to the data we have, the possible path of the asteriod is a cone.... the earth is inside that cone currently. Earth takes up about 1/45,000th of that cone, specifically. We know when it will get here, if it does get here, with a good degree of accuracy. And we know what direction it would be coming from. So that rules out it landing in, say, Cuba - it would be coming from the wrong direction to hit there at the time of impact.

Re:The Pacific

[WombatDeath]

Ah, that makes sense - thank you for the excellent explanation!

Re:The Pacific

[LighterShadeOfBlack]

To be honest I still don't get it. I get that we're in the cone of possible projected paths for this thing. But surely that's one whole side of the Earth that's in it. If we can calculate the precise time in which it would hit us then I can obviously see that maybe the Californian coastline might be smack in the centre of the Earth relative to the asteroid, but surely that still means there's only a tiny fraction of the 1/45000 chance that it will actually hit dead centre. No?

Re:The Pacific

[LighterShadeOfBlack]

Nevermind. Just paid a bit more attention to TFA and realised they're talking about it hitting "the pacific ocean", not specifically the Californian coastline, in which case they probably can safely make that assumption if the timing were just right.

Re:The Pacific

[scdeimos]

The target zone is apparently a path from Siberia leading ESE through North America around to the west coast of Africa. I don't understand it myself, since the uncertainty should be a conic region giving us a more-or-less circular target zone on the surface of the Earth (not linear).

So far as the report on New Scientist goes, I guess they just decided to say it would hit the Pacific off the coast of California. The artists' impression picture is also not to scale - an asteroid that big relative to Earth would be around 600km in diameter, not a mere 250 metres.

Re:The Pacific

[flyingfsck]

We don't, but since most of the earth is covered by the Pacific ocean, chances are better than 70% that it will hit there. If we are really lucky, it will hit Washington DC, but the odds are against us...

Re:The Pacific

[purfledspruce]

Actually, the uncertainty mostly isn't due to error in position; it's due to the fact that, when we observe a NEO, it's a point of light in the sky. We really don't know how far away it is. If it's near to the Earth and Sun, it moves more quickly; if it's farther away, it moves more slowly. If you remember that things move in circles or ellipses around the Sun, then you might get the idea that the uncertainty "ellipse" (due to a small error in position left-right, but a very large error in depth) due to the different orbital velocities, it "stretches out" over time, wrapping the ellipse's major axis around the Sun until it's basically a straight line.

There's a fantastic animation of this process at Spaceguard's site, just scroll down to the second animation.

Re:The Pacific

[Jasper__unique_dammi]

In that case, a telescope orbiting Jupiter or Mars (prolly the farther away the better) would greatly improve our ability to measure the position of these things. Why no plans to get telescopes there?

Re:The Pacific

[purfledspruce]

expense, really--we can build another ground telescope for something like $300M, but a good space telescope would cost near $1B and have a limited lifetime.

Interestingly, the telescope would likely be near Venus...the sun lights up the asteroids, and you want to be on the same side of the asteroid as the sun. If you're on the outside, then the wrong half is lit up and you can't see it!

improbability

[mpoloks]

The 20-million-tonne object has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting the Pacific Ocean... which if you look at the numbers it's the area code of a small town where i met this incredible girl! how improbable...

Re:improbability

[LunarCrisis]

Too bad it's not infinitely improbable. . .

Re:improbability

[name*censored*]

where i met this incredible girl! how improbable...

I'll say! You met a _GIRL_??

Re:improbability

[kokoba]

If that's the case, the asteroid's going to become a pot of petunias anyway, so nothing to worry about.

Re:leaving nothing but a cool, beautiful serenity.

[edwardpickman]

I live in Phoenix. I'll have costal property to retire on without moving to Florida! The glass is way better than half full! Come on, baby needs a new beach!!!!!!

Palermo Technical Scale

[evanbd]

This asteroid has a Palermo Technical Scale risk assessment of -2.52.

The PTS relates the impact risk to the background risk in a logarithmic way -- that is, the probability of Apophis hitting us is 0.003 times the probability that we will be struck by some other asteroid of equal or larger size first. Or, put another way, yes we should be worried about asteroid impacts, and yes we should keep watching Apophis, but it's not (by our understanding) a big cause to go and panic.

That said, Apophis is the second highest ranked asteroid we know about by the PTS, behind 2007 CA19 at -0.91 (potential impact in 2012). And if it gets the people with the budgets to start considering the problem, that's a good thing. Right now, though, it would seem that our best use of money is to spend more effort looking for asteroids -- so far, the number we find appears to be fairly well correlated to how hard we look, suggesting that we have found a very, very small fraction of the NEOs out there.

Re:Palermo Technical Scale

[AeroIllini]

...suggesting that we have found a very, very small fraction of the NEOs out there.

...suggesting that we have found a very, very small fraction of the Agent Smiths out there.

There. Fixed that for ya.

Re:leaving nothing but a cool, beautiful serenity.

[Teresita]

I live in Phoenix. I'll have costal property to retire on without moving to Florida! The glass is way better than half full! Come on, baby needs a new beach!!!!!!

Obviously Lex Luthor is driving this asteroid.

Re:Aw geez....

[Mipsalawishus]

We'll be able to nuke them YEARS out, even with current technology.

True, but what the asteroids?

'nuff said

[fermion]

Even still, it's nothing to get too worked up about... If it did hit, it could trigger a tsunami that would do an untold amount of damage to the California ... Despite the low level of the threat...

Re:who cares

[Duhavid]

It will be outsourced to Missouri by then.

2007 CA19

[crontabminusell]

The object 2007 CA19 has a better chance (as of right now) of hitting the Earth than 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) does. The former is also about four times larger than the latter and would have more than double the velocity at impact if it were to hit.

Re:2007 CA19

[calidoscope]

The impact probability for 2007_CA19 is based on a bit over 5 days of observations. Further observations are more likely to decrease impact probability than to increase it. It is definitely worth keeping an eye on, but I wouldn't take impact probabilities too seriously until a few more weeks of observations have taken place.

Re:2007 CA19

[GunFodder]

No it doesn't. Here are the hit probabilities from your links:

CA-19: 1 in 714,000 chance
Apophis: 1 in 45,000 chance

I'm assuming the risk factor for CA-19 is higher because it is larger and its projected impact date is closer, which gives us greater confidence in its projected path.

Re:Aw geez....

[kramer]

Unless they get more precise knowledge of the orbit, intervention right now could be worse than doing nothing. You might, for example, accidentally turn what would have been a near miss into a direct hit. The most useful course of action right now would probably be to deposit some sort of radio beacon on the asteroid in order to increase the accuracy of the orbital measurements.

Re:Woot!

[DogDude]

Quoting WorldNetDaily is a bit like quoting Fox News... it's about as reliable as all of those "hot stock tips" you get in your email every day.

Real blame

[blahpony]

The MPAA and RIAA will just blame the tsunami on piracy.

Ob. HHGTTG

[ozbird]

"So this is it. We're going to die."

Re:Ob. HHGTTG

[Ken_g6]

Maybe, but it's infinitely improbable!

Re:OK, note to self

[techno-vampire]

Just stay in either the San Fernando or San Gabriel valleys. Lots of mountains between you and the ocean, and you're still in LA County.

More than qualified

[Swifti]

Jack O'Neill can do anything.

1 in 45,000 ?

[nurb432]

Not saying its time to freak out, but that really isnt that bad of odds considering we are talking being hit by a object coming from the vast expanse of space.

Thats even better odds then winning the lotto.

Never Fear, Space Garbage is Here!

[TheSuperlative]

Don't worry, if it comes, by then our protective shield of space debris will destroy it before it can enter the atmosphere.

Re:Never Fear, Space Garbage is Here!

[linguizic]

Better yet, NASA should use it's connections in the mafia to obtain a rocket and blast all of our trash at it.

Re:Never Fear, Space Garbage is Here!

[Luyseyal]

Heh, this gave me an idea. I bet Bush would get more support for his anti-missile defense program if it doubled as an asteroid defense.

Now if it just *worked*...
-l

Priorities

[BobSutan]

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N17363374 .htm

To put this into perspective you have roughly a 1 in 80,000 chance of dying from an act of terrorism, almost twice the odds that this thing will strike the Earth. Now think about that. The odds of this think hitting the PLANET is greater than any 1 person being killed by a terrorist. Now look back at how much time and money has been spent on combating those that use terrorism to accomplish their goals.

Think about it where our priorities should be.

For reference, Meteor Crater in Arizona, which is about a mile wide and 500 feet deep, was created by a ~66' wide meteor. Apophis is ~450' wide. If another meteor the size of the one from Arizona were to hit a city, which is twice as likely to happen than a terrorist strike, it'd be akin to a nuclear detonation. If something the size of Apophis should strike the earth, well, say goodbye to whatever county (or small state) it lands in.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mystery_mond ay_040412.html

Re:Priorities

[dotoole]

If another meteor the size of the one from Arizona were to hit a city, which is twice as likely to happen than a terrorist strike,

Faulty logic. The estimated odds of a random individual out of roughly 6 billion people dying from an act of terrorism is 1/80,000. On the other hand I'd estimate the odds of at least one person dying in the next 24 hours due to an act of terrorism are about 1.

Re:Priorities

[siwelwerd]

66' wide when it hit the ground, or 66' wide before it entered the atmosphere?

Re:Priorities

[MichaelSmith]

Think about it where our priorities should be.

One thing we should worry about is a prediction of an impact in a large population centre. For example a 1 in 100 probability of an impact in India in 10 years. The result of such a prediction would be much worse than the actual impact.

Re:Priorities

[trongey]

You have a roughly 1:1 chance of dying as a result of your mother giving birth to you. They really should pass some laws about that.

Re:Priorities

[StikyPad]

To put this into perspective you have roughly a 1 in 80,000 chance of dying from an act of terrorism...slightly higher if you actually are a terrorist. =O

Re:Priorities

[BobSutan]

Good points. Keep in mind that I don't think for a second we shouldn't do what we can to thwart illegal and violent acts against our citizens and allies. However, I do think we could do a better job of it without running our principles into the ground while spending rediculous amounts of money in the process.

Re:Priorities

[BobSutan]

I stand corrected. From Modern Marvels episode "Killer Asteroid" (2004):

The chances of an asteroid killing millions of us by the end of the century are 1 in 20,000. We are 4 times more likely to be struck by an asteroid than hit by lightning.

California?

[Velocir]

Who really cares about California? What about Japan, Australia (although no-one cares about them either), and most of all, New Zealand? By 2036 California will be a half-drowned ghetto...

Re:California?

[treeves]

and California, if it were considered to be its own nation, would have either the sixth, seventh, or tenth largest economy among all nations in the world today, according to various sources.

rules out it landing in, say, Cuba

[Ardipithecus]

Already getting benefits from switching to Linux

Re:leaving nothing but a cool, beautiful serenity.

[hazah]

Hicks, is that you? Did you find your contact lens?

Total Annihilation, nah, Starcraft

[CrazyJim1]

Starcraft is based on Starship Troopers, and everyone knows reality likes to emulate fiction. The asteroid itself won't harm us as much as the alien space insects that come out.

Re:Total Annihilation, nah, Starcraft

[Chmcginn]

Eh, I'd say Starcraft was based much more on Warhammer 40K than Starship Troopers. The space marines in Heinlein's novel were a lot more mobile, and a lot more powerful, than those in the other two sources.

Re:Total Annihilation, nah, Starcraft

[SunTzuWarmaster]

Except, of course, that Starship Troopers did not have a Protoss race. Come to think of it, the only similiarities are an insectoid alien races and humans in suits (in space). Of course you know that Starship Troopers was more a commentary of society than a war story, well, if you read it.

Re:OK, note to self

[dl107227]

It is a shame that I am not meta-moderating today. The person who troll rated this needs their hand slapped.

coastlines

[baomike]

It is nice to see the author realized that Calif. was not the only place that bordered the Pacific. I wonder if the ships from China at San Pedro tipped him off, or maybe he's heard of Australia (no not the one with the Blue Danube, the other one).

NOOOOOO

[/dev/trash]

Unix time runs out in 2038, we gotta see what that's like!

Re:NOOOOOO

[bismark.a]

Unix time runs out in 2038, we gotta see what that's like!

Actually 32 bit UNIX time runs out in 2038 (1970 + 2 ** 32 / 60 / 60 / 24 / 365 / 2 = 2038.09625976662)
In a couple of decades, I am kind of hoping that everyone and their dog would be running 64-bit or higher UNICES.

picture is stupid

[Jasper__unique_dammi]

The picture is stupid, they say the asteroid is 20-million-tonnes, say it has the (quite low) density of water, 1tonne/m^3, say it weighs actually weighs much more 10^9 tonnes so 10^9 m^3 or a cube with 1 km sides. In the picture the asteroid is way way larger.

Re:picture is stupid

[Jasper__unique_dammi]

"Actually the diameter is more like 250 meters."
I know, i was just increasing my size estimate(a factor 50 in mass) to show how ridiculously large the asteroid in the picture was. (the choice of density is rather low too, though depends on type of asteroid)
"However, perhaps it's appropriate that an article about an asteroid called Apophis includes an illustration by someone called Don Davis. (Ok, it's a stretch, I know...)"
I dont get it, but i am sure its unimportant :). (guess my replies are a bit redundant.)

Nothing to worry about, but

[ThatsNotPudding]

had it been named Apoptosis - EVERYBODY PANIC!

Yeah

[KurtisKiesel]

Did anyone else know that it is actually do to hit on April 13th... and it is a Friday. /not joking

You realize of course...

[Greyfox]

That only 3 other people on Slashdot get that reference... and *I* don't have mod points today :-(

Re:You realize of course...

[Orozco]

I, for one, salute our new Vespa-riding overlords.

Positive side

[icedcool]

Hopefully this doesn't hit us... but think of the positive if it did. Imagine the science research we could get out of the impact. Sound's like the plot to a scifi book or something.

strategic move

[icepick72]

If we can find a way of tilting the earth by that time so the asteroid hits the nation on earth that will be causing problems at that time ...

Ummm...

[eno2001]

20 million tons? Probably flying into the Earth at near light speeds? And you fools think it's just going to do some coastal damage to California? From where I come from this sounds like a formula for breaking the Earth into millions of little shards. The only living things that would survive would be small things like cockroaches that would be able to cling onto their own bit of rock and survive the recoagulation of the planet. Mankind would likely be wiped from the face of the Earth (not too much of a loss really) except for the billion to one odds that someone would actually survive the recoagulation. Based on the weight and speed of such an impact, I would say the energy released would be the equivalent of 200 million billion Hiroshimas. The only thing we can hope for now is that the Niburu of Planet X return to Earth to save us all. The only bad thing about that would be the deal that the Bush administration and the Cheney crime famliy cut with them to enslave everyone but the power elite. Go check out rense.com, it's all too true and all too horrible.

Re:Ummm...

[nebosuke]

20 million tons? Probably flying into the Earth at near light speeds?

Objects travelling at a relative velocity that is a significant fraction of the speed of light do not remain in orbit around an object with as little mass as the sun.

Re:Ummm...

[eno2001]

Oh come on! I was hoping someone would take me to task on the "recoagulation" of the Earth bit. That's about as pseudoscience as you can get. Doesn't anyone have any gumption?

Largeness vs. Mass vs. Velocity & Energy of Im

[FallOfDay]

2007 CA19 is 4x the diameter of 2004 MN4, yet is about 50x more massive & would, due to velocity, produce an impact of 350x the amount of energy of 2004 MN4 (140,000 Megatons versus 400 Megatons). In theory!

Re:leaving nothing but a cool, beautiful serenity.

[Agripa]

Otisburg.

That depends.

[jd]

The coastline might make a break for it first. It might prove necessary to accelerate the asteroid to prevent this.

Re:That depends.

[Deekin_Scalesinger]

+1 funny
+1 hopeful

Re:That depends.

[epee1221]

The coastline might make a break for it first.

Coastline moving inland? Global warming FTW!

Re:Star Trek linked to pedophilia?

[Anonymous Coward]

So if I want to be a sex offender and get away with it, the first step is to burn all my Star Trek uniforms, prosthetic ears, etc.?

Space Godzilla?

[likewowandstuff]

Am I the only person wondering whether this could be Space Godzilla, and whether we have enough miniature tanks to fend it off, or just the only one brave enough to admit it? Surely we could preemptively create our own Godzilla now to counter this potential weapon of mass scaliness.

April of 2036?

[Schraegstrichpunkt]

The 20-million-tonne object has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting the Pacific Ocean in early April of 2036.

Excellent! I guess we can keep using a 32-bit time_t after all!

Re:April of 2036?

[jimmytheant]

I knew I had better search for a post like this before I posted myself. First thing that came to mind after seeing the date. How sweet is that!

Re:Strange write-up

[Schraegstrichpunkt]

They're saying Prob({impact} AND {pacific ocean}) = 1/45000.

Assuming the probability of hitting any point on the surface of the earth is uniform, we have:

Prob({impact} AND {pacific ocean}) = Prob({pacific ocean} GIVEN {impact}) * Prob({impact}) = 1/45000

Prob({impact}) = Prob({impact} AND {pacific ocean}) / Prob({pacific ocean} GIVEN {impact})
= (1/45000) / (70.8%) = 1/31860

So, the probability of the asteroid hitting the earth (assuming uniform probability distribution across the entire earth's surface) is a little higher than 1 in 32000, not 1 in 45000.

They're trying to hide the real odds!!~!

Obligatory...

[Brad1138]

What's everyone so worked up about? So there's a comet -- big
deal. It'll burn up in our atmosphere and what's ever left will
be no bigger than a chihuahua's head.
Wow, Dad, maybe you're right.
Of course I'm right. If I'm not, may we all be horribly crushed
from above somehow.

Apophis? No big deal !!!!!!!!!!

[jon barleycorn]

Actually, "nothing to see here. Move along folks.." is pretty close to the mark. On Friday the thirteenth in 2029 (no kidding) when Apophis passes by the earth, it must pass thru a 600 meter (667 yard) 'window' in order to strike the Earth in 2036 (again, on Friday the thirteenth). Long before 2029 we will know whether this will happen. If so, the plan is to rendezvous with Aphophis in 2029 (or before). At this point, the very slight gravational tug of the spacecraft will be enough to change Apophos's orbit to miss us.

Re:Apophis? No big deal !!!!!!!!!!

[mr_matticus]

Unless it bumps into something else in the intervening SEVEN years and gets knocked into a collision course (which it wouldn't have done had we not rendezvoused with it). That'll show us silly humans trying to tempt fate and reorder the universe. The point is that we don't observe enough of the sky to be absolutely certain about anything much beyond our own orbit, and while we have very good predictive models, the error rate in our projection is far greater than the calculated chance of hitting the earth. So in other words, there's a 1:45,000 chance of impact, but more like a 1:1000 that the first probability is wrong.

Say goodbye to the USA?

[cdn-programmer]

If another meteor the size of the one from Arizona were to hit a city, which is twice as likely to happen than a terrorist strike, it'd be akin to a nuclear detonation. If something the size of Apophis should strike the earth, well, say goodbye to whatever county (or small state) it lands in.



If this puppy is aimed at the USA then I sure hope Canada sets up a system that requires passports and all sorts of red tape for anyone from the USA who wishes to visit our country!

Of course if any Americans think they might want to visit Russia, then I hope they get treated the same as Dimitris Sklyrov. Anyone who doesn't know what the USA did to him can ask google. The short of it is that he was thrown in jail for months and criminally charged because he exposed the pitifully bad security measures employed by Adobe in its eBook products.

It would be nice if was goes around comes around.

Re:Say goodbye to the USA?

[Raenex]

How nice of you. You seem to be saying that if an asteriod were about to impact the United States, and the only hope people had of surviving were fleeing to Canada (a bizarre scenario, but whatever), you'd hope that they'd be held up at the border because travel to the US got sticky after 9/11?

And because one Russian individual got the DMCA shaft, you'd like for all Americans visiting Russia to be similarly mistreated? Ethics like yours are what lead to escalative wars.

Sequel Title

[Wilson_6500]

Armagain: Humans Die Hard

Re:Strange write-up

[Schraegstrichpunkt]

Assuming the probability of hitting any point on the surface of the earth is uniform Very wrong.

Indeed.

BTW since when did the Pacific Ocean cover 70.8% of the surface of the Earth?

Oops. Good point. I wrote "Pacific Ocean" but I used the figure for the water-covered fraction of Earth's surface.

Tracking potential threats

[Ace905]

The article mentions that potential 'threat asteroids' are being tracked, and hopefully all potential threats will soon be identified for closer observation.

I remember reading years ago on slashdot about a near-miss that occured during daylight hours, when a global-catastrophe sized asteroid approached earth from the sun and passed between the moon and earth. Does anybody remember this? And the asteroid wasn't even detected until it had already passed.

What about asteroids that can be slingshot from behind the sun, or elude detection as that one did (because the sun was in our eyes?). The article doesn't mention if there's always going to be an un-trackable region of space. Does anybody more versed in this know, with current technology and a little more time, will we really be able to track all potential, immediate threats?

---
This is an immediate threat!

Re:Tracking potential threats

[RKBA]

Does anybody more versed in this know, with current technology and a little more time, will we really be able to track all potential, immediate threats?

I'm no astronomer, but I did write the telescope control system software for a medium sized (24" diameter mirror) telescope used primarily for asteroid acquisition and tracking, and I think I can safely say that:
Yes, given enough asteroid tracking telescopes to cover the entire sky every three months, any asteroid coming from any direction could be identified well before it struck earth. The reason is that as the earth revolves in its orbit, areas of the sky that were previously in the direction of the Sun will be visible without interference from the Sun in three months - which is the length of time it takes the earth to revolve 90 degrees in it's 360 degree orbit around the Sun.

Re:Tracking potential threats

[lightning detector]

In fact there are scenarios in which a hazardous asteroid, not previously discovered, could strike by surprise. This is possible even with an asteroid larger than Apophis, and with best surveillance efforts. It is difficult to see an asteroid that is close in angular direction to the sun, and that direction is usually not the target of systematic surveillance. Hence an asteroid coming from inside the Earth's orbit towards the Earth might not be seen. Another problem is that for about ten days a lunar month, telescopes are partly "blinded" by the light of the full moon. That is enough time for an asteroid to approach from a considerable distance. I don't mean to be alarmist; the risk per year of a serious strike is very small. However, we cannot at present see all risks in advance. Decades from now, our knowledge may be better.

The UN, huh?

[AndyAndyAndyAndy]

The UN's getting involved, so that means it will probably take until 2036 for anything to actually happen.
So I guess it's good we get started now.

Re:The UN, huh?

[fishdan]

Ugh, why get the UN involved at all? Because they've done such a great job in solving terrestrial problems? What could the United Nations possibly do? There are probably 5 nations in the world that have the ability to do something about this. So let's not ask Venezuela or Bhutan what they think we should do.

Investment opportunity

[jgoemat]

Buy now and in 30 years you could own prime Nevada beach-front property!

Re:Investment opportunity

[niktemadur]

Buy now and in 30 years you could own prime Nevada beach-front property!

The beach-front property will last for the several minutes it'll take for the waters to recede, and even then, just on the western facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cleveland National Forest, maybe you could do a pay-per-view special from there.

Old News

[jgoemat]

This asteroid has been known about since 2004. The odds of it striking earth have been changed several times, the last time in October 2006 when the odds were actually decreased. What's the story here again?

Re:Typical Humans...

[Farmer Tim]

We'll wait until 3 weeks before it hits to do something about it!

More like we'll wait until three weeks after it hits.

scared sh**less

[abstrak_tokatl]

i shall now sell my balls and kiss my ass goodbye..... no wait... strike that... i'm gonna kick some astroid ass with my baseball bat.

Went to a talk about this last month.

[Shag]

q.v. http://www.astroday.net/AstroTalk35.html - the panel featured Dave Tholen (discoverer of Apophis, and colorful Usenet figure), Ed Lu (NASA Shuttle and ISS astronaut and co-inventor of the "gravity tractor" idea) and a couple guys from the Pan-STARRS asteroid-hunting project.

America centre of the universe

[a1mint]

Why is it that, just like in the movies, America has to be in the centre of the universe. An object from outer space is coming to threat us, and what do you know? "California" is at risk. How arrogant! I mean what the hell? Here's why it is super uber-arrogant: if there is a 1 in 45000 chance, and then *IF* it hits the earth at all, it could really hit *anywhere* on earth. North, south, slightly earlier, slightly later, all factors that will completely make the outcome just about 100% unpredictable as to where exactly it will hit, if at all. So right away, "California" is at risk. Seriously, you people need to get your heads checked.

Re:America centre of the universe

[jtroy92]

most movies you watch center around the united states because most movies you watch are made there. the article, written in california for a predominately american audience, states that california is at risk. if i might suggest, don't take such things personally

Re:Strange write-up

[elgatozorbas]

Maybe the Pacific is a worst-case scenario. Impact on land would undoubtedly be unpleasant for those right underneath, and maybe a few 100 kilometers away, but that's probably it. On the other hand, we all know now what Tsunamis can do...

Re:Sounds like a case of Astronomers wing to me...

[mollymoo]

Are you from Kansas?

Re:leaving nothing but a cool, beautiful serenity.

[Rhesusmonkey]

You live in Phx and think the ocean coming over the Rockies would work out well for you??? Well I've been to Phoenix and I'd tend to agree with you.

Covered Before

[LakeSolon]

Slashdot has covered Apophis (2004 MN4) before, in late 2004:

Introducing Asteroid 2004 MN4
2004 MN4, Even Higher Probability

Hope I Get to See It

[trongey]

It would be so cool to witness an asteroid strike, or really near miss. Unfortunately, 2036 is about 5 years past my statistical life expectancy so I'll have to beat the numbers a bit to see the show.

Bible references

[Some_Llama]

Revelations talks about a "star" that falls from heaven and causes the waters to go bitter and kills a 3rd of the ocean. Sounds like this one... in the bible it is referenced as wormwood.