Slashdot Mirror
Schoolboy Corrects NASA's Math On Killer Asteroid
spiracle writes "A German schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, has revised NASA's figures for the chances that the Apophis asteroid will hit earth. Apparently if the asteroid hits a satellite in 2029, its path could be diverted enough to cause it to collide with Earth on the next orbit, in 2036. NASA had calculated the chances as 1 in 45,000 but the 13-year-old, in his science project, made it 1 in 450. NASA agreed." Update: 04/16 16:47 GMT by Z : This is not entirely accurate, it turns out — more details.
Not peer reviewed.
A friend of mine "used" to work at NASA JSC. He would tell me stories of people with a clue being broken by people in charge that had no clue. He finally got fed up and left... He is not alone.
And thanks to little Nico, we now know that the likelihood of this happening is one thousand times greater than we thought.
Thanks, little buddy! You're a regular ray of sunshine.
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Little bastards gonna get us all killed!
This space available.
NASA previously estimated the chance "Apophis" the asteroid would strike earth in 2027 was 1 in 45,000. But a german schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, pointed out that NASA overlooked the probability the asteroid would strike one of the 40,000 sattelites orbiting Earth and enter a new solar orbit intersecting Earth in 2036. A german newspaper reports that NASA now concurs the chance this will happen is about 1 in 450. If the 200 billion tonne ball of iridium and iron stikes the planet then it's literally light's out for earth: 800 foot tidal waves followed by an indefinite period of dust cloud covered darkness, not to mention metal vapor in the atmosphere. The original Slashdot discussion was in 2007 when the odds were better. At that time it was known that there was a small risk of a gravitational slingshot dropping it into the 2036 collisional orbit, however, to do so the asteroid had to pass through an improbable 400 meter wide strike zone to be properly deflected, as described in 2006 in Popular Science from 2006. Today's announcement of the new finding is here and here.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
And the 2038k problem solves itself, thus vindicating Ken Thompson and pessimists everywhere.
I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. - Hunter S. Thompson
...or they forgot to do the metric conversion. Again.
All's true that is mistrusted
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
What's Plan B?
Giant laser? Kinetic kill vehicles?
Nuke it from orbit?
fallout shelters won't help.
It would interesting if funding in SpaceX and the other alt-space companies went up as a result of this.
Rich people: get us off this rock.
How we know is more important than what we know.
I want to see the math. What miscalculation did NASA make? Did they use centimeters instead of meters? Was it a simple math error? Did they use an incorrect statistic?
Why did the kid have access to this information?
I guess NASA was using MS Excel to do their calculations.
Obligatory blog plug: http://www.caseybanner.ca/
And how long will it take to figure out if we're boned? 2 years? That leaves about 5 years to do something about it.. or, ya know, go on a long killing spree.
How we know is more important than what we know.
By the way, it passes by the earth in 2027 on friday the 13th. If it hit's it will hit in the pacific ocean. So California may get wet. The energy content is said to be 26,000 Hiroshimas which is not that much but recent calculation suggest is more than enough to darken the earth.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
I hope that kid won the science competition he was in!
"... and for my science project, I proved NASA wrong and made a discovery of potentially epic proportions..."
Kindof tough to follow that one.
A 1 in 450 chance that this thing will hit an asteroid in the way that makes it MORE likely to hit Earth?
Hitting anything in space is like hitting a needle in a haystack. Actually, that's vastly understating it.
There better be an explanation of exactly what it is going to hit and how it will "improve" its trajectory.
http://lkml.org/lkml/2005/8/20/95
... it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnesNext week: 13 year old boy discovers new chemical reaction in which a combination of scientifically illiterate PR bunnies and sub-editors produces large quantities of bullshit.
Or faced political pressure to predict something other than a fairly decent chance of doom. I mean really: does anyone think a 13-year-old outsmarted every scientist at NASA?
I for one welcome our new German asteroid overlords.
The CB App. What's your 20?
OH-NOES! Kurzweil predicted that sometime in the 2030s computers will be able to match human brains. Combined with this recent news, this means we have to worry about killer robot overlords AND killer asteroids ending the world! OH-NOES!
This does not sound right. The article states that Apophis has a mass of 200 billion tonnes. How would colliding with a satellite which except for the ISS max out at about 20 tonnes do anything at all to Apophis' orbit? Forget the link to the wire story where is a link to NASA statement that the impact chance is really 1 in 450?
Here is the original article, in German, from the German newspaper. It looks like a professor helped him (Professor Spahn from Potsdam University). Bild is semi-infamous in Europe for sensationalizing stories but at least we know that the boy is real if nothing else...
Let's see. We begin with the original source of data, "telescopic observations." Good, but perhaps a bit, shall we say, lacking in nine-digit precision. Then we add the element of a bright schoolboy (always a favorite in the papers) doing something big and being validated (instantly!) by "NASA" (not a person, but apparently the entire agency). Oh, and "NASA" told "ESA", but we still don't have the identity of anyone other than the putative schoolboy.
So far, doing well.
Then we hit the big problems. First, we have the scare factor of "40,000" satellites surrounding Earth. Most of which, actually, are in LEO, with a few more in geosynchronous orbit. Which makes the space around the Earth only about 99.999% empty space, rather than a few more nines. As it turns out, space is big.
But it sounds good to imply that somehow there's this asteroid belt around the earth, and that the "killer" asteroid might hit a satellite.
Well, WHICH ONE? They have a lot of different masses, they are going in different directions, and we pretty much have to get a specific momentum change in the right direction in order to get just the right perturbation. Hitting a small piece of space junk is one thing, but the variation in weight of those "40,000" satellites is orders of magnitude. And that makes a big difference in orbital perturbation, even if the difference in orbital velocity is small compared to the velocity of the asteroid. We're talking about a subtle effect here.
And let's not figure in things like elastic collisions, off-center collisions, pieces flying off, or anything else. Nope, it's gonna happen perfectly, just like that seven-ball four-cushion bank shot we all can hit again and again.
Heck, they even called the pocket. Right into the Atlantic, after an orbit measuring in the decades. Now I will grant that the orbit is pretty well known, but again, that little "satellite assist" must be just precise as heck.
A nice touch gives us the "destroy both coasts and darken the world indefinitely." While it's good to be so certain, couldn't they be more specific about the method of destruction? Seeing as how they apparently know everything else, and all.
And finally, we have the 450:1 odds. Not 500:1, and certainly not 1000:1, but exactly 450. Cool. About as believable as my old homework excuses, but infinitely cooler. Can you say "significant figures"? I knew you could.
I think it's what you get when you let AFP (my source of news of the world for sure) loose in spring.
Congress announced today that there's a 1 in 450 chance you will be eligible for social security at retirement.
There's an alanis morriset kind of irony here. If we were just moneys in trees and had not put up the sattelites we would not have magnified our risk a 100 fold.
Given that sort of cosmic irony, I predict it has to hit Hubble.
And speaking of hubble they should have known it had a faulty mirror when they say the stencil on it that said "asteroids in mirror are closer than they appear".
Thank you, thank you. I'll be here all week. Try the veal.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
NASA has plan to deal with killer satellite by 2054.
Once you're below a certain threshold, a few more zeros really does not change anything. Very unlikely vs extremely unlikely is hardly relevant. Increasing my chances of being hit by an asteroid by 500 times still does not put it on the radar. Increasing my chance of a car crash by 50% is much more important.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
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Maybe it's in the genes...
$META_SIG_JOKE
Here's the (semi hilarious) machine translation.
... AND NASA HAS SAID, I HAVE QUITE
..."
I forgot the World Downfall chosen!
BY MICHAEL SAUERBIER
Potsdam - He is the greatest threat our planet: On Sunday, 13 April 2036, the asteroid crosses "Apophis" the orbit.
Nevertheless, the probability that we killer lumps from the All true, is 0.2 percent! This is a student from Potsdam calculated.
And doing so, Nico Marquardt (13) the research of NASA corrected! For his disturbing discovery was the small physics genius now for the youth researchers Prize.
"The asteroid has left me no rest," says the SiebtklÃssler from Potsdamer Humboldt Gymnasium. "On the Internet, I had high bets on the impact of Apophis was discovered. But NASA is the impact likely only 1 to 45000. I wanted to know how it really is. "
With the telescope of the Astrophysical Institute Potsdam Nico was allowed to observe asteroids train.
The student: "Then I said Spahn professor at the University of Potsdam, as the attractions of the sun, moon and earth the way of Apophis influence." Astrophysicists had a suitable formula.
Nico: "With Professor Landgraf, ESA's satellite control center, I train then recalculated."
Frightening picture: "The harvest probability is 1 to 450," said a young astronomer. For comparison: For a lottery-six (without super number), it is at 1 in 14 million.
Nico: "When would the impact force of 98000 Hiroshima bombs freely. Stürben million people, dust would darken the sky, a super-tsunami swamped parts of the earth. "
But: "I hope that Apophis nearly vorbeischrammt to us
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
May I add that NASA, at least currently, doesn't even mention this? http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ Where do they get this info, if this isn't anywhere on NASA?
And now Hollywood can turn the German boy into an American boy, chuck the complex math for a backyard telescope, name the asteriod after the boy, throw in a baby to add drama and get Morgan Freeman to play the President... Oh wait... ...never mind.
We're all gonna die!
I bet by the time 2036 hits, stats will how it's now without a doubt, the year of Linux on the desktop. But it won't matter cos we'll be dead. Wouldn't that be a kick in the balls.
Chances it hits the Earth after hitting a satellite... 450:1.
Chances it hits the precise satellite at the precise angle at the precise rotation... 98493250:1 (the same chance Duke Nukem Forever is released this year).
C'mon the matrix won't be that bad. It'll probably be just as fun and addicting as World of Warcraft.
Collisions in space are actually quite predictable. The asteroid is huge and fast, so the entire satellite gets obliterated -- no random debris falling off, because odds are that the satellite is either entirely within the path or entirely outside it. Supersonic (relative to speed of sound in asteroid / satellite, not something irrelevant like Earth's atmosphere) collisions are basically completely inelastic (details more complex, but reasonably well understood).
Satellites don't vary in mass all that much. The big ones are a few tons to a few tens of tons, once you ignore the ISS. The little ones don't matter, so you ignore them.
Telescope observations can most definitely produce the many nines of precision needed for this work. It goes something like this: on day one, it's within this error bar. On day two, within that error bar. On day a few thousand, this other error bar. Individually, the error bar is large, but as they spread out, the path through every one of them gets rather precisely defined. Imagine positioning a set of 1 meter wide gates across the US -- sure, you can't measure the position of the bowling ball you rolled through them to better than 1 meter at any one point, but by the time it's gone through *all* of them, you have sub-ppm accuracy on its exact angle. Extend the scale a bit and you get the precision needed.
Calling the pocket is the easy part: if it hits, then the piece of the Earth pointed in that direction will be the Atlantic. Sure, it might strike a glancing blow and hit at the edge, but thanks to foreshortening the odds are against that.
They didn't forget about them. There is almost no chance a satellite will be struck. If you read the original FA, you'd see that a) the asteroid will pass inside the orbit of them, b) it will pass at a 40 degree angle to them, and c) when the satellite does reach the distance the satellites orbit at, it'll be well beyond the region the satellites are in.
The kid calculated the odds of the asteroid hitting the earth IF the asteroid hit a satellite JUST PERFECTLY. The odds of the asteroid hitting a satellite, much less just right for that to occur, are remote at best. This is just media hype to increase ratings.
Well, think on the bright side.
At least we don't have to worry about fixing the 2038 UNIX 32-bit date bug any more.
Have you taken the laws of anvilology into consideration?
- Falling anvils never kill, only crush. (Maybe the Flat Earth Society could be right after all...)
- Anvils will stay in the air until noticed.(But how do we keep people from looking at the sky?)
- Maybe we better go with a safe, as that could allow us to open it afterwards and release a slightly squeezed (and cubed) planet...
Thinking about the problem for a second, I can see how you can make some rough calculations. Generally any GEO, HEO, etc. type orbit will be fairly slow, especially compared to the hyperbolic orbit that the asteroid will be entering at (in the Earth's reference). Thus based on the range of velocities and masses you could predict a range of possible perturbations to the orbit.
Though I don't have any numbers to back it up right now, a small perturbation in the velocity can propagate forward to be a very large error after 7 years. Thats why we have so much trouble predicting whether or not it will hit us; a 10 meter error in its position or a 1 m/s error in velocity measurements translates into multiple Earth radii over a few years. So combine the small change in velocity from an impact with the gravitational slingshot from the 2029 close approach, and it may be enough to shift the keyhole.
Of course I think the article is misleading, it may be more like there's a 1/450 chance of some kind of impact that will have an unknown effect on the orbit but may shift it into an impact trajectory, or something like that. At any rate, there are still other unknowns such as the effect of solar wind that can vary the trajectory dramatically too.
Note of course that I could be completely wrong, although I do plan to attempt some simulations now, since one of my advisors classes is working on a related project.
And I just read Duke Nukem Forever is slated to ship in 2037. :(
You, wouldn't have to deflect it much. just a fraction of a fraction of a degree. We're talking about huge distances here. Ever played pool on a pool table with sand? Try making that rebound shot, where you bounce it off three bumpers from one corner and sink it in the fourth corner with a single piece of sand in the the path of travel. Now multiple by a factor of a billion and you begin to get the idea. When Russia launched a probe to the Moon, they were off by less than a degree and missed the Moon by something on the order of a million miles. Don' forget Apophis is going pretty damn fast too. Action - reaction and all that. Whether the satellite is traveling towards or away, etc.
I'd love to see the computer-cluster this kid calculated the 100k+ iterations of the many-bodied system of time-retarded lagrangians required to solve something like this. His parents power bill has to be insane. Considering uncertainties involved in orbital trajectories and timing for asteroids like this, 100k might even be a low number of runs for something like this. The number of satellites in orbit, their varying masses, uncertainty in the current un-colided trajectory, etc. can't possibly create a situation where you have improved odds of impact anyways. There is actually a greater solid angle of impact for collisions that would decrease the likelihood of eventual earth impact than increase it. Maybe these odds are after the most favorable possible satellite impact plus the help of magical space faries?
If merely randomly hitting a satellite will make it impact earth, than a targeted hit by another satellite will make it not impact earth.
So if this report is true (which I very much doubt), it in itself provides the answer.
do not want
There, I hope that gave you a flavor. BTW, there is no mention here either of any named individual in NASA or ESA that is standing behind the numbers quoted.
The article is breathless about how wonderfully catastrophic this all is, but I do have some questions about the math. For one, are there really 40,000 satellites in geostationary orbit (or geosynchronous orbit)? That's the quoted number - I was under the impression that there were rather fewer. And how on earth do they get a figure of 1:450 that the satellite will hit one of them? And that that hit will guarantee the catastrophic outcome they so desire?
For another, I'm not getting a picture of a long observational period and multiple telescopes. Only one telescope is mentioned, and the science fair aspect makes it more suspicious. It looks more like a novel hypothesis ("what if it rams a satellite?") combined with some serious guesswork.
And finally, did anybody else get a little bothered by the description of a 160-meter radius asteroid that weighs 200 billion tons? That gives a density of a little under 12 kilograms per cubic centimeter, which would make it a rather unique and valuable material. As near as I can tell, Wikipedia being your friend and all, they missed by three orders of magnitude. Speaking of correcting the numbers...
We are developing several strategies to deflect the course of asteroids. If these mature over the next few years before our close encounters with Apophis, we may have the chance of bringing into Earth orbit, providing nearby and easily accessible resources for space construction.
Providing it with enough energy to slow from solar orbit to Earth orbit could be tricky, so I suggest the best way is to deflected in such a way it undergoes aerocapture.
People always seem concerned about the possibility of the rock just smacking into Earth, and think this is a reason not to pursue such a strategy. Tell me, am I being too Lex Luthor about this?
If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
As it turns out, space is big
You may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.
I am one of many. My idea is not unique, nor do I expect my voice alone to sway you. I speak in a chorus of opinion.
As other readers have pointed out, the Asteroid actually weighs 21 Megatonnes, not 200 Gigatonnes.
Journalists are the only people worse on Maths than both NASA and German school boys.
Err...yes, I would agree with that sentiment, but I think that's exactly why they wouldn't predict doom.
Bear with me for a moment (and feel free to rip the argument apart later): if NASA predicted impeding doom from the asteroid then people would panic and NASA would receive tons of funding, but for all the wrong reasons. Instead of attempting to focus on research and possible Mars visits they would be forced to spend tons of time and effort trying to avert an Armageddon that would likely never come. This would most likely set the program years back.
If they instead ignored the thing until it was certain to collide with the Earth, then they would have several years to find a relatively easy solution, and up until that point they would have twenty years of advances under their belt.
Maybe this is the lack of sleep combined with hours of work and six cups of coffee talking, but I think that NASA had/has very good reasons for keeping this thing quiet.
First of all, the competition is "Jugend forscht", which is the largest science competition in Germany. It consists of three stages: first there is a regional competition with winners advancing to the state finals. The winners of the state finals then advance to the federal finals, which is the last round. Roughly speaking, in every round one winner (or winning team) is chosen by a jury in each discipline (mathematics, physics, chemistry, ...).
It seems that the kid won the regional competition, but failed to advance in the state finals.
OS Reviews: Free and Open Source Software
As did everyone else who replied to you. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck..
Stupid people think it's cool. Smart people thinks it's a joke; also cool.
This just in: Kindergarten kid corrects 13 year old student's earlier correction of NASA calculation.
Chance of impact now 1 in 4.
Toddler's have be banned from using calculators for fear they will doom us all.
Doom Us All, I tells ya!
Genesis 1:32 And God typed
Sorry to burst the balloon, but apart from the one German article that was picked up by AFP, there's no source for this story. And NASA and the ESA deny ever saying that the schoolboy was right. It seems that the schoolboy's sums were wrong, and NASA's original workings are right. More info: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/ I'd file this under 'web hoax' or 'lazy journalists pick up on anything sensational'
Just in case anyone still believes we'll all be killed by an asteroid in 2029 or 2036, here's an article from El Reg, claiming that the boy got it all wrong.
I guess we'll have to live with the miniscule 1 in 45,000 chance.
link to article:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/
"In April 2008 it was reported that 13 year-old Nico Marquardt from Potsdam, Germany had recalculated the odds as part of a science competition, and found the risk had been underestimated. Taking into account the possibility of the asteroid colliding with one or more of the estimated 40,000 artificial satellites orbiting the earth, possibly causing a shift in its orbit, increases the probability of a collision with [5] earth on its next fly-by in 2036 to 1 in 450. NASA was reported as confirming these results with the ESA[6], yet they have since apparently denied these claims, and on April 15, 2008 it was reported Nico Marquardt's calculations were incorrect." -- Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis/
Dilbert on the "Millineum generation"
Now get off my lawn! Damned kids! And take your calculators with you! (grumble mumble where'd I put my lawnmower?)
mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
And where on THEIR website is this mentioned...?
"This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region. " From here.
Given the track record on space propulsion advances over the last twenty years, I'm not going to put much faith in a game-changing engine appearing in the next twenty.
If they instead ignored the thing until it was certain to collide with the Earth, then they would have several years to find a relatively easy solution, and up until that point they would have twenty years of advances under their belt.The "relatively easy solution" is to go push it as soon as possible. The sooner you push, the less pushing you have to do. With Apophis in particular, you want to get your pushing done before the 2029 flyby, as it will magnify the effect.
(of course, it turns out the kid was wrong, but the point stands)
But then again, I could be wrong.
9/11 Eyewitnesses to Explosive WTC Demolition 1 of 2
o-- - *whoosh*
^ the point
O
-|- <- You
/ \
The force is strong with this one.
Nasa Watch has picked up the story. Turns out to be completely made up. Details here: Apophis risk not increasedYes it is all a hoax.
Genesis 1:32 And God typed :wq!
.sig made me really think. Then when that hurt too much, this came to mind:
Your
And God thought, surely there must be a better editor than this. So He summarized some options:
A. Intelligently design Richard Stallman so he can write Emacs.
B. Just start a process of evolution that leads to greedy parasitic organism that like to control and manipulate everything around them. Richard Stallman should naturally evolve in opposition to such an environment.
Perhaps God didn't want to take direct responsibility for option A, and option B gives better deniable plausibility.
I only look human.
My mother is a halfling and my dad is an ogre, so that makes me an Ogreling
So in Slashdot's world "not entirely accurate" is the same thing as "completely, utterly, bloody false." Good to know.
NASA denies this report: http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/apr/HQ_08103_student_asteroid_calculations.html#maincontent
Nope. The kid didn't do his homework. While the asteroid may pass around 38,000 km from earth at the closest point, it will pass the equatorial ecliptic at around 51,000 km, too far away to collide with any geosynchronous satellites. Also to be noted: According to NASA, the kid did not contact anyone there to obtain any data. The kid's bright and engaged and had a heck of an idea for a science fair project, but his lesser-educated, sensation-mongering elders jumped the gun and made him look like a fool.