Slashdot Mirror
Schoolboy Corrects NASA's Math On Killer Asteroid
spiracle writes "A German schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, has revised NASA's figures for the chances that the Apophis asteroid will hit earth. Apparently if the asteroid hits a satellite in 2029, its path could be diverted enough to cause it to collide with Earth on the next orbit, in 2036. NASA had calculated the chances as 1 in 45,000 but the 13-year-old, in his science project, made it 1 in 450. NASA agreed." Update: 04/16 16:47 GMT by Z : This is not entirely accurate, it turns out — more details.
Not peer reviewed.
What's a couple of zeros when it's life or death...
I thought that all this removal of music and art from our public education system was to make us super-strong in math...
have you read the Moderation Guidelines Addendum?
A friend of mine "used" to work at NASA JSC. He would tell me stories of people with a clue being broken by people in charge that had no clue. He finally got fed up and left... He is not alone.
And thanks to little Nico, we now know that the likelihood of this happening is one thousand times greater than we thought.
Thanks, little buddy! You're a regular ray of sunshine.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Little bastards gonna get us all killed!
This space available.
NASA previously estimated the chance "Apophis" the asteroid would strike earth in 2027 was 1 in 45,000. But a german schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, pointed out that NASA overlooked the probability the asteroid would strike one of the 40,000 sattelites orbiting Earth and enter a new solar orbit intersecting Earth in 2036. A german newspaper reports that NASA now concurs the chance this will happen is about 1 in 450. If the 200 billion tonne ball of iridium and iron stikes the planet then it's literally light's out for earth: 800 foot tidal waves followed by an indefinite period of dust cloud covered darkness, not to mention metal vapor in the atmosphere. The original Slashdot discussion was in 2007 when the odds were better. At that time it was known that there was a small risk of a gravitational slingshot dropping it into the 2036 collisional orbit, however, to do so the asteroid had to pass through an improbable 400 meter wide strike zone to be properly deflected, as described in 2006 in Popular Science from 2006. Today's announcement of the new finding is here and here.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
I guess we might as well start an impendingdoom tag meme?
Twinstiq, game news
Not Good!!!
Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification
In other news, the sales of fallout shelters has dramatically increased within the past few days.
And the 2038k problem solves itself, thus vindicating Ken Thompson and pessimists everywhere.
I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. - Hunter S. Thompson
...or they forgot to do the metric conversion. Again.
All's true that is mistrusted
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
What's Plan B?
Giant laser? Kinetic kill vehicles?
Nuke it from orbit?
I want to see the math. What miscalculation did NASA make? Did they use centimeters instead of meters? Was it a simple math error? Did they use an incorrect statistic?
Why did the kid have access to this information?
...is if this asteroid can't even properly hit Earth, as big a target as it is, how the hell is it going to hit a satellite -- even if there are 40,000 of them?
If the entire increase in risk is due to this, that means he's basically giving this thing a 1 in 450 chance to hit a satellite. Somehow, I don't think so.
And how long will it take to figure out if we're boned? 2 years? That leaves about 5 years to do something about it.. or, ya know, go on a long killing spree.
How we know is more important than what we know.
By the way, it passes by the earth in 2027 on friday the 13th. If it hit's it will hit in the pacific ocean. So California may get wet. The energy content is said to be 26,000 Hiroshimas which is not that much but recent calculation suggest is more than enough to darken the earth.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
I hope that kid won the science competition he was in!
"... and for my science project, I proved NASA wrong and made a discovery of potentially epic proportions..."
Kindof tough to follow that one.
A 1 in 450 chance that this thing will hit an asteroid in the way that makes it MORE likely to hit Earth?
Hitting anything in space is like hitting a needle in a haystack. Actually, that's vastly understating it.
There better be an explanation of exactly what it is going to hit and how it will "improve" its trajectory.
http://lkml.org/lkml/2005/8/20/95
you'd have to be 340 years old to get hit by it...
NASA hasn't updated their page on Apophis yet. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html
... it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnesNext week: 13 year old boy discovers new chemical reaction in which a combination of scientifically illiterate PR bunnies and sub-editors produces large quantities of bullshit.
I for one welcome our new German asteroid overlords.
The CB App. What's your 20?
OH-NOES! Kurzweil predicted that sometime in the 2030s computers will be able to match human brains. Combined with this recent news, this means we have to worry about killer robot overlords AND killer asteroids ending the world! OH-NOES!
This does not sound right. The article states that Apophis has a mass of 200 billion tonnes. How would colliding with a satellite which except for the ISS max out at about 20 tonnes do anything at all to Apophis' orbit? Forget the link to the wire story where is a link to NASA statement that the impact chance is really 1 in 450?
GTFO!
Here is the original article, in German, from the German newspaper. It looks like a professor helped him (Professor Spahn from Potsdam University). Bild is semi-infamous in Europe for sensationalizing stories but at least we know that the boy is real if nothing else...
Let's see. We begin with the original source of data, "telescopic observations." Good, but perhaps a bit, shall we say, lacking in nine-digit precision. Then we add the element of a bright schoolboy (always a favorite in the papers) doing something big and being validated (instantly!) by "NASA" (not a person, but apparently the entire agency). Oh, and "NASA" told "ESA", but we still don't have the identity of anyone other than the putative schoolboy.
So far, doing well.
Then we hit the big problems. First, we have the scare factor of "40,000" satellites surrounding Earth. Most of which, actually, are in LEO, with a few more in geosynchronous orbit. Which makes the space around the Earth only about 99.999% empty space, rather than a few more nines. As it turns out, space is big.
But it sounds good to imply that somehow there's this asteroid belt around the earth, and that the "killer" asteroid might hit a satellite.
Well, WHICH ONE? They have a lot of different masses, they are going in different directions, and we pretty much have to get a specific momentum change in the right direction in order to get just the right perturbation. Hitting a small piece of space junk is one thing, but the variation in weight of those "40,000" satellites is orders of magnitude. And that makes a big difference in orbital perturbation, even if the difference in orbital velocity is small compared to the velocity of the asteroid. We're talking about a subtle effect here.
And let's not figure in things like elastic collisions, off-center collisions, pieces flying off, or anything else. Nope, it's gonna happen perfectly, just like that seven-ball four-cushion bank shot we all can hit again and again.
Heck, they even called the pocket. Right into the Atlantic, after an orbit measuring in the decades. Now I will grant that the orbit is pretty well known, but again, that little "satellite assist" must be just precise as heck.
A nice touch gives us the "destroy both coasts and darken the world indefinitely." While it's good to be so certain, couldn't they be more specific about the method of destruction? Seeing as how they apparently know everything else, and all.
And finally, we have the 450:1 odds. Not 500:1, and certainly not 1000:1, but exactly 450. Cool. About as believable as my old homework excuses, but infinitely cooler. Can you say "significant figures"? I knew you could.
I think it's what you get when you let AFP (my source of news of the world for sure) loose in spring.
Wait a minute, how will an asteroid create create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes?
Congress announced today that there's a 1 in 450 chance you will be eligible for social security at retirement.
There's an alanis morriset kind of irony here. If we were just moneys in trees and had not put up the sattelites we would not have magnified our risk a 100 fold.
Given that sort of cosmic irony, I predict it has to hit Hubble.
And speaking of hubble they should have known it had a faulty mirror when they say the stencil on it that said "asteroids in mirror are closer than they appear".
Thank you, thank you. I'll be here all week. Try the veal.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
NASA has plan to deal with killer satellite by 2054.
Once you're below a certain threshold, a few more zeros really does not change anything. Very unlikely vs extremely unlikely is hardly relevant. Increasing my chances of being hit by an asteroid by 500 times still does not put it on the radar. Increasing my chance of a car crash by 50% is much more important.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Maybe it's in the genes...
$META_SIG_JOKE
Here's the (semi hilarious) machine translation.
... AND NASA HAS SAID, I HAVE QUITE
..."
I forgot the World Downfall chosen!
BY MICHAEL SAUERBIER
Potsdam - He is the greatest threat our planet: On Sunday, 13 April 2036, the asteroid crosses "Apophis" the orbit.
Nevertheless, the probability that we killer lumps from the All true, is 0.2 percent! This is a student from Potsdam calculated.
And doing so, Nico Marquardt (13) the research of NASA corrected! For his disturbing discovery was the small physics genius now for the youth researchers Prize.
"The asteroid has left me no rest," says the SiebtklÃssler from Potsdamer Humboldt Gymnasium. "On the Internet, I had high bets on the impact of Apophis was discovered. But NASA is the impact likely only 1 to 45000. I wanted to know how it really is. "
With the telescope of the Astrophysical Institute Potsdam Nico was allowed to observe asteroids train.
The student: "Then I said Spahn professor at the University of Potsdam, as the attractions of the sun, moon and earth the way of Apophis influence." Astrophysicists had a suitable formula.
Nico: "With Professor Landgraf, ESA's satellite control center, I train then recalculated."
Frightening picture: "The harvest probability is 1 to 450," said a young astronomer. For comparison: For a lottery-six (without super number), it is at 1 in 14 million.
Nico: "When would the impact force of 98000 Hiroshima bombs freely. Stürben million people, dust would darken the sky, a super-tsunami swamped parts of the earth. "
But: "I hope that Apophis nearly vorbeischrammt to us
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
Here's a little detail to add to it. None of the satellites we'll be using in 2029 when it passes are in space right now cuz the recommended lifespan of satellites is like 8-12 years or something. Oh and if it hits a satellite, it can be deflected ANY direction depending on where it gets hit. Anyone ever played pool before? That alone puts it to about on in a trillion. And then we don't know if that new path will cause it to collide with another object in the solar system during its huge orbit which would deflect it nowhere near us. We could just barely put together some remotely accurate numbers if we knew the speed and direction of every object and know every particle and force in our solar system plus a map of all the gravitional forces caused by them the entire time. Nasa and the german kid are kidding themselves if they think that either of their guesses is accurate.
Google's Super Secret Search Algorithm: SELECT @search_results FROM internet WHERE @search_results = 'good'
May I add that NASA, at least currently, doesn't even mention this? http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ Where do they get this info, if this isn't anywhere on NASA?
And now Hollywood can turn the German boy into an American boy, chuck the complex math for a backyard telescope, name the asteriod after the boy, throw in a baby to add drama and get Morgan Freeman to play the President... Oh wait... ...never mind.
We're all gonna die!
I bet by the time 2036 hits, stats will how it's now without a doubt, the year of Linux on the desktop. But it won't matter cos we'll be dead. Wouldn't that be a kick in the balls.
And this:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?2.2e-05
I think you are considering a rather obtuse view of the term "satellite". They seem to mean any object orbiting the Earth; for example the moon.
Cool! So we could shape it into an anvil and go out in style, like all the cool civilizations do. Sure, we'll all die, but it will be a funny and cartoonish death.
Actually, any infinite subset of the infinite set of counting numbers has the same size as the set of counting numbers. So just as many worlds will be destroyed as not.
Too soon?
It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
Chances it hits the Earth after hitting a satellite... 450:1.
Chances it hits the precise satellite at the precise angle at the precise rotation... 98493250:1 (the same chance Duke Nukem Forever is released this year).
Even if it were an order of magnitude estimate at 500:1, it's still incredibly likely. I wouldn't bank on us surviving past 2036 unless we do something to stop the asteroid. We're at the point techonologically where we could do something about it. And what if you are less than 1/100th the width of a pin off when you shoot a pool cue across the table? How much variation does that introduce into the next 10 seconds of the game?
Planetary orbits are a deterministic system, and don't fool yourself into thinking that we can crunch a few numbers and immediately determine what will happen. To give you an idea of the complexity of the planetary system, it took Physicists about 400 years to develop a working general solution to the differential equations governing a 3-body planetary system.
Essentially, the reason that a small satellite drastically increases the odds that the asteroid will hit us on a second path is the same reason that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a hurricane in Florida.
We should take neither the odds, nor the pronouncement of any probability, lightly. Would you rather be wrong about what will happen, and have life on the Earth as we know it end? This asteroid would cause the end of our epoch and the beginning of a new one. Only a fool would suggest we continue on with business as usual.
SRSLY.
His last name isn't 'Biederman,' is it? Cuz that would just be creepy.
Still, looks like it's time to get Bruce Willis & Co. in astronaut training.
C'mon the matrix won't be that bad. It'll probably be just as fun and addicting as World of Warcraft.
Collisions in space are actually quite predictable. The asteroid is huge and fast, so the entire satellite gets obliterated -- no random debris falling off, because odds are that the satellite is either entirely within the path or entirely outside it. Supersonic (relative to speed of sound in asteroid / satellite, not something irrelevant like Earth's atmosphere) collisions are basically completely inelastic (details more complex, but reasonably well understood).
Satellites don't vary in mass all that much. The big ones are a few tons to a few tens of tons, once you ignore the ISS. The little ones don't matter, so you ignore them.
Telescope observations can most definitely produce the many nines of precision needed for this work. It goes something like this: on day one, it's within this error bar. On day two, within that error bar. On day a few thousand, this other error bar. Individually, the error bar is large, but as they spread out, the path through every one of them gets rather precisely defined. Imagine positioning a set of 1 meter wide gates across the US -- sure, you can't measure the position of the bowling ball you rolled through them to better than 1 meter at any one point, but by the time it's gone through *all* of them, you have sub-ppm accuracy on its exact angle. Extend the scale a bit and you get the precision needed.
Calling the pocket is the easy part: if it hits, then the piece of the Earth pointed in that direction will be the Atlantic. Sure, it might strike a glancing blow and hit at the edge, but thanks to foreshortening the odds are against that.
... how little it takes to divert an asteroid if done early enough. If the result in TFA is possible, so's the opposite -- that an asteroid can be knocked off a collision-bound trajectory with something far less than the suggested nuclear bombs and such.
...
As for ILuvRamen's comments above ("wrong wrong WRONG")
> None of the satellites we'll be using in 2029 when it passes are in space right now cuz the recommended lifespan of satellites is like 8-12 years or something.
That's the functional lifetime, how long it will be working. Anything orbiting 23,000 miles up may not stay in geosynch, but it's going to be way up there for centuries.
> Oh and if it hits a satellite, it can be deflected ANY direction depending on where it gets hit. Anyone ever played pool before?
Good analogy. Take a pool ball and roll it across the table. That's the asteroid. Put another one in front of it. Let them collide. No matter where it hits, the asteroid is going to slow down. Even if it's only a tiny bit, it'll slow, and orbit is far more sensitive to changes in speed than any lateral force. If the asteroid was most likely to pass by on the side away from the sun, slowing it would make it more likely.
> That alone puts it to about on in a trillion.
> Nasa and the german kid are kidding themselves if they think that either of their guesses is accurate.
The Near Earth Object site has the math on it used to calculate the different probabilities, unlike your baseless assertion. NASA and the German kid both obviously know something about orbital mechanics. Look at the formulae and see if you can tell where they went wrong. My guess is you can't.
"I may be synthetic, but I'm not stupid." -- Bishop 341-B
An asteroid named Apophis is on a collision course with Earth? Someone needs to update their feeds. SG-1 took care of this already in season 5. Friggin' Goa'uld put their names on everything - "The Art of the Deal" must be in their book club rotation.
They didn't forget about them. There is almost no chance a satellite will be struck. If you read the original FA, you'd see that a) the asteroid will pass inside the orbit of them, b) it will pass at a 40 degree angle to them, and c) when the satellite does reach the distance the satellites orbit at, it'll be well beyond the region the satellites are in.
The kid calculated the odds of the asteroid hitting the earth IF the asteroid hit a satellite JUST PERFECTLY. The odds of the asteroid hitting a satellite, much less just right for that to occur, are remote at best. This is just media hype to increase ratings.
More like NASA lied in the first place so they did not have do do anything about it. "Oh yeah 450 to 1 chance, right, um, we'll get right on it...damn kid"
I just finished viewing (literally minutes ago!) the History Channel's S01 E03 of "The Universe" that deals with this very asteroid... then I promptly log onto Slashdot and find THIS headline.
I'm guessing the odds of that happening are even more remote than this thing hitting earth, schoolboy corrections or not!
Well, think on the bright side.
At least we don't have to worry about fixing the 2038 UNIX 32-bit date bug any more.
Have you taken the laws of anvilology into consideration?
- Falling anvils never kill, only crush. (Maybe the Flat Earth Society could be right after all...)
- Anvils will stay in the air until noticed.(But how do we keep people from looking at the sky?)
- Maybe we better go with a safe, as that could allow us to open it afterwards and release a slightly squeezed (and cubed) planet...
Thinking about the problem for a second, I can see how you can make some rough calculations. Generally any GEO, HEO, etc. type orbit will be fairly slow, especially compared to the hyperbolic orbit that the asteroid will be entering at (in the Earth's reference). Thus based on the range of velocities and masses you could predict a range of possible perturbations to the orbit.
Though I don't have any numbers to back it up right now, a small perturbation in the velocity can propagate forward to be a very large error after 7 years. Thats why we have so much trouble predicting whether or not it will hit us; a 10 meter error in its position or a 1 m/s error in velocity measurements translates into multiple Earth radii over a few years. So combine the small change in velocity from an impact with the gravitational slingshot from the 2029 close approach, and it may be enough to shift the keyhole.
Of course I think the article is misleading, it may be more like there's a 1/450 chance of some kind of impact that will have an unknown effect on the orbit but may shift it into an impact trajectory, or something like that. At any rate, there are still other unknowns such as the effect of solar wind that can vary the trajectory dramatically too.
Note of course that I could be completely wrong, although I do plan to attempt some simulations now, since one of my advisors classes is working on a related project.
And I just read Duke Nukem Forever is slated to ship in 2037. :(
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levenberg-Marquardt_algorithm
You, wouldn't have to deflect it much. just a fraction of a fraction of a degree. We're talking about huge distances here. Ever played pool on a pool table with sand? Try making that rebound shot, where you bounce it off three bumpers from one corner and sink it in the fourth corner with a single piece of sand in the the path of travel. Now multiple by a factor of a billion and you begin to get the idea. When Russia launched a probe to the Moon, they were off by less than a degree and missed the Moon by something on the order of a million miles. Don' forget Apophis is going pretty damn fast too. Action - reaction and all that. Whether the satellite is traveling towards or away, etc.
Schoolboy that corrected NASA, gets corrected by slashdot user.?
I'd love to see the computer-cluster this kid calculated the 100k+ iterations of the many-bodied system of time-retarded lagrangians required to solve something like this. His parents power bill has to be insane. Considering uncertainties involved in orbital trajectories and timing for asteroids like this, 100k might even be a low number of runs for something like this. The number of satellites in orbit, their varying masses, uncertainty in the current un-colided trajectory, etc. can't possibly create a situation where you have improved odds of impact anyways. There is actually a greater solid angle of impact for collisions that would decrease the likelihood of eventual earth impact than increase it. Maybe these odds are after the most favorable possible satellite impact plus the help of magical space faries?
If the asteroid hits Earth 2036, we do not have to deal with the end of time as we know it.
If merely randomly hitting a satellite will make it impact earth, than a targeted hit by another satellite will make it not impact earth.
So if this report is true (which I very much doubt), it in itself provides the answer.
And finally, we have the 450:1 odds. Not 500:1, and certainly not 1000:1, but exactly 450. Cool. About as believable as my old homework excuses, but infinitely cooler. Can you say "significant figures"? I knew you could.
Someone had to say it...
They would have had me if they had said 42:1.
I'm so sorry, I'll go away now.
Great! I can carry on casting time_t to a 32 bit integer now, and put in a comment: // we'll all be dead, so don't worry about it.
"It doesn't cost enough, and it makes too much sense."
There, I hope that gave you a flavor. BTW, there is no mention here either of any named individual in NASA or ESA that is standing behind the numbers quoted.
The article is breathless about how wonderfully catastrophic this all is, but I do have some questions about the math. For one, are there really 40,000 satellites in geostationary orbit (or geosynchronous orbit)? That's the quoted number - I was under the impression that there were rather fewer. And how on earth do they get a figure of 1:450 that the satellite will hit one of them? And that that hit will guarantee the catastrophic outcome they so desire?
For another, I'm not getting a picture of a long observational period and multiple telescopes. Only one telescope is mentioned, and the science fair aspect makes it more suspicious. It looks more like a novel hypothesis ("what if it rams a satellite?") combined with some serious guesswork.
And finally, did anybody else get a little bothered by the description of a 160-meter radius asteroid that weighs 200 billion tons? That gives a density of a little under 12 kilograms per cubic centimeter, which would make it a rather unique and valuable material. As near as I can tell, Wikipedia being your friend and all, they missed by three orders of magnitude. Speaking of correcting the numbers...
Hitting the moon would seem to have much more dire consequences, yes? Destabilizing it's orbit would have a *slight* impact on the future of our planet. Very good chance of us not being around in 2036 I would wager.
All that being said, I am sure they can tell where the moon is and determine whether or not it will be hit. I could judge that from Starry Night Pro, so I'm certain NASA can.
We are developing several strategies to deflect the course of asteroids. If these mature over the next few years before our close encounters with Apophis, we may have the chance of bringing into Earth orbit, providing nearby and easily accessible resources for space construction.
Providing it with enough energy to slow from solar orbit to Earth orbit could be tricky, so I suggest the best way is to deflected in such a way it undergoes aerocapture.
People always seem concerned about the possibility of the rock just smacking into Earth, and think this is a reason not to pursue such a strategy. Tell me, am I being too Lex Luthor about this?
If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
The NASA NEO site gives 21M tons, which is much more plausible.
The many observations are what was involved in the NASA JPL orbit determination. My impression is he just said "suppose it hits a satellite, what will that do to the orbit?" and then ran those numbers plus the JPL numbers through the simulator.
I also get the impression the 1/450 number is 1/450 odds of a collision with Earth, *if* it hits a satellite.
I don't know how many satellites there are in geosync, but I'm pretty sure you're right that it's less than 40,000. That might be about right for total satellites, though -- not that that's all that relevant.
I too would like to see an official NASA comment on this.
German scientist discovers asteroid on "collision course", NASA not very helpful.... start building your rocket ship kid, it might be ready in time for us to fight back!
Maybe the rock-dwelling alien bastard driving it won't appreciate our tin-tech peppering his windshield and will take the time to just vaporise us nicely, as to allow their cargo vessel to pass effortlessly through the resulting cloud... It should be quite a sight, I can't wait to see it.
To claim my 'I told you so' moment, I place odds of this happening something between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 1017.
In this case, we are looking at 4/3*Pi*(320/2)^3,
So V = 12867963.5 m^3
So now, let's look at the density : d = W/V
Basic division gives us : d = 1554,25 g.cm^-3
According to wikipedia :
iron density is 6.98 g.cm^-3
iridium dentisty is 22.42 g.cm^-3
So, do we discover a new metal ?
Or do we need a other kid to find the mistake ?
Normally I'd say a 13 year old who can correct NASA on their mistakes has a bright future ahead of him ... but in this case, maybe he doesn't. :(
Quidquid Latine dictum sit, altum videtur (anything said in Latin sounds important)
Exactly my thoughts - sounds like horseshit. So why "NASA confirms"? Simple - the more they scare the public the more funding they'll get to send Bruce Willis to blow up the damn thing.
If he is right at least we wont have to worry about that global warming I mean climate change problem some people are fixated on.
Political pressure tends to be pro impending doom these days.
Boffoonery - downloadable Comedy Benefit for Bletchley Park
You are right, but I think we need to shape it into 16 ton weights if we all want to be well and properly destroyed :-) There is enough material to destroy us all one by one and some left over for household pets, and the whales, too!
As it turns out, space is big
You may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.
I am one of many. My idea is not unique, nor do I expect my voice alone to sway you. I speak in a chorus of opinion.
Seriously, the odds that any given asteroid will even impact a satellite on a particular pass are astronomical. Not anywhere near 1:450, so how could this possibly be true. I think that they may mean that *if* it impacts a satellite it will have a 1:450 chance of hitting us on it's next pass.
(We're China, right?)
First of all, the competition is "Jugend forscht", which is the largest science competition in Germany. It consists of three stages: first there is a regional competition with winners advancing to the state finals. The winners of the state finals then advance to the federal finals, which is the last round. Roughly speaking, in every round one winner (or winning team) is chosen by a jury in each discipline (mathematics, physics, chemistry, ...).
It seems that the kid won the regional competition, but failed to advance in the state finals.
OS Reviews: Free and Open Source Software
Besides which, I for one have better things to do than hang around contemplating and asteroid that may or may not hit when I'm in my 60s. Or maybe not. I am on Slashdot, after all.
First they tell me California is doomed by the 2030s, and now they tell me probably the whole world is too...SHEESH.
I really don't mind if you sit this one out...
Do You Experiment?
I think what it comes down to is this, that IF the asteroid were to hit a satellite then on it's next run it'll have a 1 in 450 chance of hitting Earth. NASA no doubt agree with this but also it doesn't necessarily make their original math wrong in that the overall chance of it hitting or not hitting a satellite and then hitting earth is vastly lower.
That's my take on it, I could be wrong but the kids only right IF the asteroid hits a satellite in the first place. The overall chance of the asteroid hitting earth including the possibility that it does or doesn't first hit a satellite is likely still the original figure. I think his figure is based on the premise that the asteroid definitely hits a satellite.
This just in: Kindergarten kid corrects 13 year old student's earlier correction of NASA calculation.
Chance of impact now 1 in 4.
Toddler's have be banned from using calculators for fear they will doom us all.
Doom Us All, I tells ya!
Genesis 1:32 And God typed
Oh shit!
Goddamned kids! Get off my lawn!
Sorry to burst the balloon, but apart from the one German article that was picked up by AFP, there's no source for this story. And NASA and the ESA deny ever saying that the schoolboy was right. It seems that the schoolboy's sums were wrong, and NASA's original workings are right. More info: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/ I'd file this under 'web hoax' or 'lazy journalists pick up on anything sensational'
Just in case anyone still believes we'll all be killed by an asteroid in 2029 or 2036, here's an article from El Reg, claiming that the boy got it all wrong.
I guess we'll have to live with the miniscule 1 in 45,000 chance.
link to article:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/
Can't tell me this wasn't deliberate by NASA.. I bet they had a big bet on - You know they redden the sky of Mars to make it look uninhabitable - and don't get me started on the Moon landings. Everyone knows the Moon's made of cheese, can't just land on it.
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
"In April 2008 it was reported that 13 year-old Nico Marquardt from Potsdam, Germany had recalculated the odds as part of a science competition, and found the risk had been underestimated. Taking into account the possibility of the asteroid colliding with one or more of the estimated 40,000 artificial satellites orbiting the earth, possibly causing a shift in its orbit, increases the probability of a collision with [5] earth on its next fly-by in 2036 to 1 in 450. NASA was reported as confirming these results with the ESA[6], yet they have since apparently denied these claims, and on April 15, 2008 it was reported Nico Marquardt's calculations were incorrect." -- Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis/
Dilbert on the "Millineum generation"
Now get off my lawn! Damned kids! And take your calculators with you! (grumble mumble where'd I put my lawnmower?)
mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
The asteriod is probably hitting smaller objects all the time, why should a sattellite be any different? I don't see why hitting stuff near the earth increases our doomsday-odds any more than hitting stuff elsewhere.
This is one of those few times where we as Americans, take over the power from the globe to conduct a full concerted effort in keeping all the satellites orbiting on the left side of the planet when it passes us on the right side in 2029. Seriously, we do not have to worry it hitting anything if the sats. are out of the way...but that would take awhile to do, and we should get started right away!...
We're dooooooooooooooooooo[catches breath]ooooooooooooooomed!
I hadn't known there were so many idiots in the world until I started using the Internet -Stanislaw Lem
he wrote "... terrorist sciences ..." not "terrorists"
do NOT welcome our killer asteroid overlord. Prepare the nukes.
What's the point of worrying about asteroids when the Large Hadron Collider will create Mini Black Holes that could destroy Earth this October?
A caveman dreams of being us, the incalculable power and riches. We dream of being Q, then what?
And where on THEIR website is this mentioned...?
given the odds of impact and the level of devastation such an event would cause I think it might be worth while starting work on a project that could deflect said meteor. The good news is it doesn't have to be ready for another 10-15 years so we have time to (hopefuly) get it right and develop a Plan B. Is anything being done (serious work?) or are our best minds working on viagra 2.0?
In the not too distant future, next Sunday A.D.
And we will turned into pure energy and leave on the next comet...which is really a ship, to visit the giant space goat that eats planets. Hmmm now where is my track suit and Nike's...?
"This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region. " From here.
Schoolboy's asteroid-strike sums are wrong: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/
Here's another link
The "correction' in his science fair project was to suggest that the maybe asteroid might hit a satellite in geosynchronous orbit as it goes by, and get deflected to the surface of the Earth. That correcton article points out that this is nonsense because when the asteriod crosses the orbital plane of geosynchronous orbit, it's not at geosynchronous distance, but I'll point out that if an asteroid hits a geosynchronous satellite, this will "deflect" it's path to about the same extent that your car will be deflected if it hits a gnat.
http://www.geoffreylandis.com
Time to break out the 450-sided die.
So a satelite impact will definitely cause its next orbit to hit the Earth. Any satelite impact, from any angle? And yet we don't expect that a moderate push would deflect it back off of a collision course?
Perhaps I need more information, but off hand, I have my doubts about this. I also note it's the kind of claim that can't be practically falsified in the common perception. The odds are either 1:450 or 1:45,000 -- but who is ever going to experience a difference between the two?
I propose we launch Ben Affleck into it. The asteroid will be sure to avoid Earth after this, I know I would.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis from TFWE: "In April 2008 it was widely but incorrectly reported that 13 year-old Nico Marquardt from Potsdam, Germany, had recalculated the odds as part of a science competition, and found the risk had been underestimated. Taking into account the possibility of the asteroid colliding with one or more of the estimated 40,000 artificial satellites orbiting the earth, possibly causing a shift in its orbit, increases the probability of a collision with [5] earth on its next fly-by in 2036 to 1 in 450. NASA was reported as confirming these results with the ESA[6], yet they have since apparently denied these claims, and on April 15, 2008 it was reported Nico Marquardt's calculations were incorrect.[7]"
In Soviet Russia jokes are formulaic and decidedly non-humorous.
9/11 Eyewitnesses to Explosive WTC Demolition 1 of 2
But the surprise waned when I realised that he was not in the US.
I've seen enough monster movies to know that it's not a good sign when a little kid has to tell the scientists what's going on.
I did a little digging to find more info on the Apophis Asteroid here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophis_asteroid
I'm too lazy to dig further on slashdot to see if anyone else is linking the wikipedia article...
but I think this is all a case of sloppy journalism.
-- What's this '-r *' file doing here? -- Oh well, a simple 'rm' should do the trick.
o-- - *whoosh*
^ the point
O
-|- <- You
/ \
One thing the article appears to imply that I question is that hitting a satellite will necessarily cause it to hit the earth next time around. I would think it could just as well cause it to miss the earth by more than it would have otherwise.
Prov 9:8 Do not rebuke mockers or they will hate you; rebuke the wise and they will love you.
Why can't we deliberately alter it ourselves to steer it away from Earth?
No sig today...
33K kilometers is an extraordinary close flyby. People get excited if an asteroid is closer than lunar orbit which is ten times larger.
My calculation compares the area of disk proscibed by the flyby with that of area of disk of earth. That is 36 times larger. Plus a 50-50 chance of hitting that flyby altitude gives me a bout a 1 in 70 chance.
All I pictured was the intro to Thundar the Barbarian: Ookla, Arial, we ride! Course they said 1994. See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhAobPugvsk Oh, and the register said its all crap: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/
meh
Seems like NASA and the ESA are both denying the miscalculation. Methinks some over-eager German tabloids are to blame... http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/
The force is strong with this one.
Nasa Watch has picked up the story. Turns out to be completely made up. Details here: Apophis risk not increasedYes it is all a hoax.
The imperial to metric problem was not NASA but their Lockheed Martin sub-contractors.
[ think ]
Sure, this German kid may have added a new term into the equation, but what happens if the asteroid were to hit TWO Earth satellites on its first fly-by? What if it hits 100? The asteroid could be halted entirely after it clears out a swath of Fox News and Major League Baseball spy satellites. In fact, I look forward to the day when I can look up at the sky and see Earth's new best friend happily cruising across the debris-filled sky. Suck on that, Moon. You cold-hearted bitch.
Dewey, you fool! Your decimal system has played right into my hands!
are you sure the kid's name isn't Wesley Crusher?
So all these calculations assume Apophis has no other impacts, whatsoever, of any kind, of any size, in the seven years it's wandering around lining up with the Atlantic?
Agreed, and further I think a lot of folks here are ignoring the probability that this massive object will hit more than just a single satellite. There are a lot of satellites packed into a rather constrained geosynchronous orbit. Further, even if it doesn't actually hit anything at all, it will certainly cause a number of nearly-missed satellites to have their orbits altered dramatically, perhaps irreversibly. So we'll likely have catastrophic communications failures, at the exact time we'll need to collaborate to determine our collective fate (and, hopefully, generate some mitigation strategies).
If that kid is right, we don't need to worry about the unix calendar problem!
I might know what I'm talkin' about, but then again, this is Slashdot...
Genesis 1:32 And God typed :wq!
.sig made me really think. Then when that hurt too much, this came to mind:
Your
And God thought, surely there must be a better editor than this. So He summarized some options:
A. Intelligently design Richard Stallman so he can write Emacs.
B. Just start a process of evolution that leads to greedy parasitic organism that like to control and manipulate everything around them. Richard Stallman should naturally evolve in opposition to such an environment.
Perhaps God didn't want to take direct responsibility for option A, and option B gives better deniable plausibility.
I only look human.
My mother is a halfling and my dad is an ogre, so that makes me an Ogreling
Vapor(izetheEarth) Ware?
Team America captive: "Hiroshima times 26,000.. why that's... I don't even know what that is." Kim Jong Il: "NO ONE DOES!!!"
Imagination is more important than knowledge -Einstien
The ESA denies ever having "confirmed" this kids numbers, contrary to the claims of the German tabloid
How does a 320 meter iron (and indium) ball end up with 200 Billion tons of mass? 1.33*3.14*160*160*160*8 tons = 136 Million tons
How does a 320 meter iron (and indium) ball end up with 200 Billion tons of mass? 1.33*3.14*160*160*160*8 tons = 136 Million tons
Yah, I think your density of iron might be a bit off but over all, for their estimates to add up, you would have to have the density of iron be around 12,000 tons per cubic meter. Boy, that seems a bit heavy for iron.
This is my sig.
So in Slashdot's world "not entirely accurate" is the same thing as "completely, utterly, bloody false." Good to know.
There's nothing to worry about here. Everyone knows that SG-1 will save the Earth from Apophis.
Space game using normal deck of cards: http://BattleCards.org
NASA denies this report: http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/apr/HQ_08103_student_asteroid_calculations.html#maincontent
Maybe a giant frickin' iron.
This sig isn't original enough, it's time to come up with something witty...
I bet your chances of a car crash are far greater than 1/450. I've been in at least 5 car crashes, but I'm still alive - I think.
Engineering is the art of compromise.
! after all
Whew, guess I can stop stockpiling bullets and beer then.
"This will not stand... you know. This aggression will not stand, man!"
more? OK-
(Smashes asteriod with his crowbar)
"...this is what happens, Nico, when you fuck a stranger in the ass! Are you LISTENING, Nico?
This is what happens, Nico, when you fuck a stranger in the ass!"
Whereupon the asteriod breaks into pieces.
.
- aqk
F U
The story apparently originates with german newspaper Bild. Bild is very poplar but also notorious for getting even the most basic facts wrong. There is a German blog ( www.bildblog.de ) which highlights out the quite peculiar world view of Bild reporters.
To name just the latest "highlight" cited in bildblog: "the sun takes 365 days to circle around the earth"
On reading the updates, especially the rebukes by the German professor who apparently did not tell him he was right, but was quoted as saying so anyway, by NASA experts who say they never heard of this before it hit the press, but were quoted as "agreeing" anyway (and, in fact, they did take Satellites into account), it seems this is once more a case of us morons following a few moronic journalists. Great.
So, in short: I can't trust what I read in the newspapers, and I can't trust what I read on Slashdot. I'll just go back to my lab and close the door.
Nope. The kid didn't do his homework. While the asteroid may pass around 38,000 km from earth at the closest point, it will pass the equatorial ecliptic at around 51,000 km, too far away to collide with any geosynchronous satellites. Also to be noted: According to NASA, the kid did not contact anyone there to obtain any data. The kid's bright and engaged and had a heck of an idea for a science fair project, but his lesser-educated, sensation-mongering elders jumped the gun and made him look like a fool.
I thought you knew that. . .
Could easily deliberately bump, or better yet, attract Apophis into an impact trajectory. Pakistan could do it. China could do it. Iran could do it.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."