Slashdot Mirror

I disagree. HR, increasingly, works for itself. At my employer, HR foisted on us an ENTIRELY new system of Job Titles and Pay Grades. Which is not just useless, but required the hiring of approximately 10 more people at Corporate to manage it.

All, of course, reporting to the Chief Human Capital Officer.

We appear to be seeing Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy metastasize in real time. . .

Actually what it reminds me of is the US announcement of 'Star Wars' aka SDI. It wasn't technically practical then but the Russians didn't know that. If you read Gorbachev's autobiography him and Shevardnadze used SDI to make the case that the USSR had lost the Cold War and it was time to surrender. Rumours of this device are presumably intended to cause the same sentiment in the US.

SDI was part of the Strategy of Technology. It was an economic strategy, not a military one. The wikipedia page is awful, by the way. I only link to it to show that it was a real thing that people took seriously. To learn about it, it is better to go straight to the source.

The goal here isn't to demoralize us, it is to force us to spend money to develop underwater anti-drone technology.

Unfortunately for them, I think it will backfire. We can afford it. We'll end up with underwater drones and underwater anti-drones and our economic growth will still outpace Russia.

RIP Dr. Jerry E. Pournelle As someone who has known Dr. P. for over 25 years and worked with him in several areas, here are some facts and personal opinions that may be easily overlooked, even by loyal fans of his Byte column, books and collaborations. First, he was deeply patriotic with a practical outlook based on a lifetime of real-world experience. This included creating and heading the Citizen's Advisory Council on National Space Policy (CACNSP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... as well as doing human factors work during the Apollo era. Second, in bringing together a large group of talented visionaries (and there was a time when the country was not so deeply politically divided) the Council was able to "work both sides of the isle" in Congress to move space law forward to create an environment where companies such as Blue Origin, Space X and others could exist. https://www.jerrypournelle.com... (Dr.P. did recount to me one of his meetings with Newt Gingrich in the kitchen at Chaos Manor.) Third, His running "day journal" was one of the first, if not the first, daily blogs. https://www.jerrypournelle.com... Fourth, his work on BIX, the Byte information exchange, was an early forum with thousands of daily hits. This is where I first met Dr.P. and became a co-moderator with him to help with his workload. I was later invited to assist with some column reviews and eventually membership in the CACNSP Fifth, Dr. P. did tend to be loud. Part of this was his personality and part of it was a hearing loss due rather loud artillery during his service to the country. Six, Dr. P. always called it as he saw it, which offended some and delighted most. His struggle with alcoholism he did win in time, those who call him friend forgive him, those who don't tend to crucify him. Seventh, The DC-X was a pivotal demonstration that rocket-powered vehicles can (and should) be reusable. Up until those tests at White Sands, of which I attended many times (sometimes in Jerry's place when he could not attend), were a testament to Pournelle, General Graham, MaxHunter and many others. The combination of DC-X, space law changes and Internet billionaires led to where we are now - we just wanted things to happen about 20 years sooner! Eighth, Pournelle told me that the day the strategic defense initiative was announced Roddenberry called him and said "I know what you are trying to do, you are trying to bankrupt the Soviet Union!" And Dr. P. responded, "Gene you have the equation right but the sign wrong, you are supposed to like it!" In summary, like him or not, Dr. Pournelle worked with many to help end the war with the Soviet Union, enlighten millions of people on personal computers and the Internet, create space travel that is reliable and affordable, envision a future of limitless opportunities and even do one of the screenplays for a Planet of the Apes movie :-) bix: david42 aka: lagunastarman

RIP Dr. Jerry E. Pournelle As someone who has known Dr. P. for over 25 years and worked with him in several areas, here are some facts and personal opinions that may be easily overlooked, even by loyal fans of his Byte column, books and collaborations. First, he was deeply patriotic with a practical outlook based on a lifetime of real-world experience. This included creating and heading the Citizen's Advisory Council on National Space Policy (CACNSP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... as well as doing human factors work during the Apollo era. Second, in bringing together a large group of talented visionaries (and there was a time when the country was not so deeply politically divided) the Council was able to "work both sides of the isle" in Congress to move space law forward to create an environment where companies such as Blue Origin, Space X and others could exist. https://www.jerrypournelle.com... (Dr.P. did recount to me one of his meetings with Newt Gingrich in the kitchen at Chaos Manor.) Third, His running "day journal" was one of the first, if not the first, daily blogs. https://www.jerrypournelle.com... Fourth, his work on BIX, the Byte information exchange, was an early forum with thousands of daily hits. This is where I first met Dr.P. and became a co-moderator with him to help with his workload. I was later invited to assist with some column reviews and eventually membership in the CACNSP Fifth, Dr. P. did tend to be loud. Part of this was his personality and part of it was a hearing loss due rather loud artillery during his service to the country. Six, Dr. P. always called it as he saw it, which offended some and delighted most. His struggle with alcoholism he did win in time, those who call him friend forgive him, those who don't tend to crucify him. Seventh, The DC-X was a pivotal demonstration that rocket-powered vehicles can (and should) be reusable. Up until those tests at White Sands, of which I attended many times (sometimes in Jerry's place when he could not attend), were a testament to Pournelle, General Graham, MaxHunter and many others. The combination of DC-X, space law changes and Internet billionaires led to where we are now - we just wanted things to happen about 20 years sooner! Eighth, Pournelle told me that the day the strategic defense initiative was announced Roddenberry called him and said "I know what you are trying to do, you are trying to bankrupt the Soviet Union!" And Dr. P. responded, "Gene you have the equation right but the sign wrong, you are supposed to like it!" In summary, like him or not, Dr. Pournelle worked with many to help end the war with the Soviet Union, enlighten millions of people on personal computers and the Internet, create space travel that is reliable and affordable, envision a future of limitless opportunities and even do one of the screenplays for a Planet of the Apes movie :-) bix: david42 aka: lagunastarman

Oh boy did I enjoyed reading Jerry's column in Byte magazine. Adventures in putting together PCs, troubleshooting, that was inspiring. I am still a big fan of Pournelle’s Law: Hardware problems? It's almost always a cable.. (or something like that.. see https://www.jerrypournelle.com...). I will miss you Jerry.

After going through mere 2 pages of his blog, with constant cognitive dissonant nonsense (like how he complains about current trends in flying commercial airlines and how it would be much better if prices were higher to keep away the masses who don't wear neck ties - while he clearly doesn't fly first class, the high-price, neck tie option he so laments), throwaway misogyny, retarded comparisons of floods in Huston from almost a century ago to floods today (surely there was no growth of the city, infrastructure, population... etc. since then), climate denial nonsense... I'm glad he's dead.

No... scratch that.
I'm sorry he didn't die decades ago. Back in the good old days.
Preferably from polio. Or some other disease he wasn't vaccinated against cause it was "less compelling".
Cause after all... should we vaccinate against AIDS and cancer?
There's no benefit to society from that kind of compulsory vaccination, you know...

No... scratch that.
I wish he was an abortion.
That way, he'd bring some modicum of joy and relief to one or maybe two people, back in the good old days.

Alas... We'll have to settle for the fact that he's finally dead and will be soon forgotten.

FUCK YOU JERRY! YOU WERE A CUNT! AND NOT IN A NICE WAY!

Actually, my defaults are informed by the reality of capture of extant politicians by the overall political system. The perqs and benefits of being an elected official are self-reinforcing, and are especially rewarding to those who enhance Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy..

As a backup, I also consider the advice of the late Robert A. Heinlein, speaking as his character 'Lazarus Long'. . .

If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for ... but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against.

ROBERT A. HEINLEIN, The Notebooks of Lazarus Long

Iron Law of Bureaucracy

It is nothing more than Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy presented using a concrete example.

**ALL** government guys are subject to Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy. So, no matter WHAT the aim of the researchers, either they or their research will eventually be co-opted to serve the needs of the particular bureaucracy, and not that of the citizens it was created to serve. . .

Copied from https://www.jerrypournelle.com...

Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people: those who work to further the actual goals of the organization, and those who work for the organization itself. Examples in education would be teachers who work and sacrifice to teach children, vs. union representative who work to protect any teacher including the most incompetent. The Iron Law states that in all cases, the second type of person will always gain control of the organization, and will always write the rules under which the organization functions.

How did the agencies get that way ?

The most likely answer, is Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy.

To wit:

Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people":

          First, there will be those who are devoted to the goals of the organization. Examples are dedicated classroom teachers in an educational bureaucracy, many of the engineers and launch technicians and scientists at NASA, even some agricultural scientists and advisors in the former Soviet Union collective farming administration.

        Secondly, there will be those dedicated to the organization itself. Examples are many of the administrators in the education system, many professors of education, many teachers union officials, much of the NASA headquarters staff, etc.

The Iron Law states that in every case the second group will gain and keep control of the organization. It will write the rules, and control promotions within the organization.

. . . to Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy. It's just human nature.

https://www.jerrypournelle.com...

If there is ever a person who knows what he's doing around computers, that person would be Jerry Pournelle, former columnist for BYTE magazine (and several others over the last 3 decades) and current master science fiction author.

https://www.jerrypournelle.com...

Jerry Pournelle's Windows 7 computer "updated" itself to Windows 10 overnight without his permission a few days ago.

I continue to recommend the GWX Control Panel to prevent your Windows 7/8/8.1 system from upgrading before you're ready.
  https://askleo.com/block-windo...

- Dr. Jerry Pournelle

...and love shiny new, big-budget fighter planes, I can only assume that the test will be rigged to show the F-35 in the best light possible.

Ask yourself: How many Air Force brass made their bones flying A-10s (or cargo planes, or refueling tankers) and the answer is going to be pretty close to zero.

Software glitches leave Navy Smart Ship dead in the water

a database overfow error (resulting from a divide by zero operation) caused the ship's propulsion system to fail.

The Yorktown Affair

Ah, here it is:

At one time it was a great secret, alas betrayed by the Falcon and the Snowman, that we could use cosmic ray backscattering to locate deeply submerged submarines; sensors in both aircraft and satellites are employed for this. At one time the very words "cosmic ray backscattering" were classified, for obvious reasons, since you only have to think about the technique to come up with ideas for using it.

Of course that technique didn't look inside objects; it depended on submarines (and whales; we located whales that way, too) are more opaque to backscatter than water...

So is Pournelle: http://www.jerrypournelle.com/

Long live Byte. Goodbye, Byte, Circuit Cellar, Pournelle, and so many other characters. Long live Ars Technica, Wired, GigaOm, and dozens of other sites like NetworkWorld, InfoWorld, The Register, and so forth. Print will never come back. You won't feel it in your hands until your foldable smartphone makes this comfy some day in the future-- to do again.

I loved reading Byte! starting from the beginning. Reading what hardware and software hackers, who followed hacker ethics not the criminals called hackers in the press today, were doing was terrific. My two favorite columns were Steve Ciarcia's Circuit Cellar, which is now a compleat magazine of it's own, and Jerry Pournelle's Chaos Manor.

Falcon Wolf

The real question is who added this particular provision,

Oh, I'm sure that the statute of limitations for that has run out for them....

That being said: it's a law. It's written in the books, and has been. ENFORCE IT, PERIOD;THAT'S THE IRS'S JOB in this case.

It really isn't their fault they've been given offensive and annoying rules. The only thing that should be under review is to make sure they're asking the larger debt owners first.

Now, for the legislators who enacted this fine piece? Let's (all!) have a discussion and a vote.

And really, I can see the overall CongressCritters being told "here's what that does", while the sponsor hashes out all of those nagging details for an actual vote. And after all, the general policy from one of the leaders is "We'll have to pass it to find out what's in it" -- I don't suppose this concept is anything new for them.

It's just like when I do a final code test and review to make sure things are in order, and then fix something while it goes into production. It's only a wafer thin mint.

Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy in action.

Not everybody with noise-related hearing loss got it from concerts. I got mine from exposure to outbound shore bombardment back in Tonkin Gulf in '72, making it service connected. Free hearing aids are nice, but I'd rather have my hearing back. I hope they get this working in humans in time for me to benefit, as well as a friend with similar issues from Korea.

If you're talking about the DC-X, well it became a complete failure after NASA took it over. But prior to that, it was a complete success. It achieved all of its design goals and its mission purpose. Which were:

1. Build a working scale model of the proposed Delta Clipper ship. Fly it as an X program. (a real X program that flies stuff like the X-1, not a computer simulation only-deal like the X-33)

2. Demonstrate the feasibility of a vertical takeoff / vertical landing rocket. Done. Test SSTO (single stage to orbit) concepts and operation procedures in test flight. Done. Prior to this, it wasn't thought possible to fly a vertical takeoff and landing ship at low speed, or to control its attitude from vertical to horizontal and back to vertical.

Afterwards, NASA took over the program, somewhat reluctantly since they already had a competing big-budget program (the X-33). Some might say NASA wanted it to fail. Regardless, it didn't crash, not even in NASA hands. On its last flight, it landed flawlessly. It just toppled over after landing because a NASA technician forgot to connect the landing gear control mechanism and one of the gears folded. It exploded from toppling over and spilling fuel due to a careless mistake, not because of any flaws in the ship design or the program itself.

Some viewpoint from people involved with the program:
Jerry Pournelle's Space Papers
What is an X Program?

If you're talking about the DC-X, well it became a complete failure after NASA took it over. But prior to that, it was a complete success. It achieved all of its design goals and its mission purpose. Which were:

1. Build a working scale model of the proposed Delta Clipper ship. Fly it as an X program. (a real X program that flies stuff like the X-1, not a computer simulation only-deal like the X-33)

2. Demonstrate the feasibility of a vertical takeoff / vertical landing rocket. Done. Test SSTO (single stage to orbit) concepts and operation procedures in test flight. Done. Prior to this, it wasn't thought possible to fly a vertical takeoff and landing ship at low speed, or to control its attitude from vertical to horizontal and back to vertical.

Afterwards, NASA took over the program, somewhat reluctantly since they already had a competing big-budget program (the X-33). Some might say NASA wanted it to fail. Regardless, it didn't crash, not even in NASA hands. On its last flight, it landed flawlessly. It just toppled over after landing because a NASA technician forgot to connect the landing gear control mechanism and one of the gears folded. It exploded from toppling over and spilling fuel due to a careless mistake, not because of any flaws in the ship design or the program itself.

Some viewpoint from people involved with the program:
Jerry Pournelle's Space Papers
What is an X Program?

if all space infrastructure were all of a sudden disabled it would be inconvenient for many, but "the economy" has a little more resilience than you give it credit for

everyone likes to think the industry they work in is important, but unfortunately NASA has been battling to justify its budget for a long time now, and its because its full of all the things that makes progress difficult. the following article describes:
http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/gettospace.html

many of the things you list are nice, but they aren't critical for the economy... in fact other than communication relay and possibly gps to some extent, they are all supurfluous as far as the economy is concerned... most companies and consumers don't stop their selling and buying if they don't know the weather, and while nuclear proliferation may seem important to the pentagon, the corporate world and the consuming public don't really give a rats

satellites are a great communication medium, but they aren't the only (they aren't even the best)

you know what would destroy the economy if it were to suddenly disappear? ...alcohol

I Googled Project Thor, and discovered that it all came from the fervid brain of Jerry Pournelle, who still thinks it was a great idea.

Jeez. There was a time when I actually enjoyed Pournelle's fiction, and even welcomed a little right-wing hawkish ranting to go with it (helped put the story in context). Now I can't read even a single sentence by him without rolling my eyes and saying "What an idiot!" Either I grew up or he got stupider. Probably a bit of both.

I just saw this image on his home page, for the love of... why did Byte consider him a technology columnist again?

typical hypocritical dumb shits... of course none of your your bullshit requires any proof (cos there is none)

but at least you're right about there being no chain of reasoning here (including throughout your posts)

actually both the americans and the russians together prove your bullshit posts wrong. russian launch cost/kg is a fraction of that of the ol' space shuttle, and they both launched to the same height. cost of space launches has more to do with people than propellent... this page explains:

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/gettospace.html

It is a regional union of independent states.

Actually, it isn't. If it were, there'd be two nations here, the United States of America and the Confederate States of America. And, I can assure you that not all (or even most) conservatives think that the USofA isn't a democracy. I have a friend who's (among other things) a conservative and a political commentator, and I'm sure that he'd laugh at anybody who made that claim. Of course, one of his doctorates is in Poli Sci, meaning that he's not exactly uneducated on the subject. I suspect that what you're seeing is more the result of poor education than anything else.

And, of course, the real expense is getting to High Earth Orbit. After that, as some hard SF writer put it, you are half way to anywhere. At least in delta-V terms.

That was Jerry Pournelle, the SF author and Byte coloumnist. He's said it quite a number of times over the years.

Jerry Pournelle

He wont make your homework for you, maybe he won't even answer to you. But if he does then he could give you some really good starting points for your research.
Good luck

In addition to The Mote in God's Eye, where aliens used enormous lasers to send a solar sail-based ship across interstellar distances, he described a laser-based system to launch small (VW Beetle-sized) manned capsules into orbit.

Of all the things ever predicted by science-fiction writers, did any of them predict that after we'd gotten to the moon, we'd let grass grow on the Saturn launching pads?

A friend of mine who just happens to write SF for a living likes to say that he always knew he'd live to see the first man on the Moon, but he'd never expected to see the last one.

"At the same time, there's pressure to keep things at the least restrictive classification level possible (because managing classified material is burdensome and (hence) expensive)."

That is the official policy. The reality is the opposite. Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy would explain why there is more pressure to classify stuff than leave it unclassified. After all that will protect and expand the bureaucracy. The fact that FOUO exists and is used on everything now proves the point; Now we classify unclassified material as not appropriate for citizens.

Thanks for your insightful reply. I'll have to read "The Gripping Hand" to see if I agree; I had not known there was a sequel: :-)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gripping_Hand
"A crucial plot element of the book is the idiom "on the gripping hand", a three-armed variation of the idiom "On one hand X, on the other hand Y." The saying is native to the alien Moties, who have three arms, one of which is stronger but possesses less finesse. The idiom has also gained some use among fans of the book.[1]"

Actually, as an analogy to the blockaded of the Moties, are there intellectual blockades by some aspects of an elite trying to keep regular humans from expanding intellectually or economically? :-) Related:
"Chapter 7: The Enclosure of Science and Technology: Two Case Studies"
http://yupnet.org/boyle/archives/162

Nanotech may have been slow to develop for other reasons (see Amara's Law or Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns), but nanotech-related science is reshaping our economy, and 3D printing of plastic and other materials (like with MakerBot or RepRap) is shaping up to be the next big thing. So, as with Amara's law, it is easy to get the pace of an exponential trend wrong from a linear perspective. Also, there may be specific issues (thermal limitations, statistical issues) on why Drexler's original nanotech stuff may never play out as he outlined (biological cells may be as good as it gets for reliable mechanisms on that nanotech level, even if nanotech structures like blended materials or diamanoid may still be useful). From:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara
"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run."

I'd agree that conflicts may well exist in the future over what are essentially issues of identity and aesthetics (or even religious/spiritual issues). I liked your Dyson sphere example. And, to an extent, those issues are with us even now, some people might prefer there was only a billion (or less) people on the Earth, and some others even might want the solar system left the way it is (no more disfiguring footprints on the Moon, etc.). The Negative Population Growth people come to mind, for example, and that NPG meme has grown all too common in the US environmental movement IMHO:
http://www.npg.org/

I'm more in the Jerry Pournelle/Julian Simon "Survival with Style" camp for now myself:
http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/
http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2009/Q2/view570.html
"Survival with Style said that Carter and the gloomsters were wrong, we were not headed for a nearly inevitable collapse, we would not have an enormous die-off of humanity, there would not be a billion people dead of starvation, and the US didn't need to join the poor nations: the best thing the US could do for the world would be to get rich. And there were ways to do it. Despair is not only a sin, it's a blunder. Back in those days I was one of the few who went to college campuses to say things like that. I was opposed by the faculty; most of the students wanted to hear that they were not headed for lives of poverty and gloom. But I sure felt alone for a while there."

However, with that said, because I believe were are entering an age of abundance, I think we can "survive with style" while still, for the most part, being respectful of the natural environment (especially regarding habitat loss and pollution) as well as working towards things like a basic income for all of humanity. My very belief in potential abundance suggest

My friend with the Masters also has a Doctorate in Psychology and another Doctorate in Poly Sci. He doesn't think I'm either a liar or paranoid. He's also asked these "climate scientists" for a layman's explanation of how they come up with these things and all they say is, "You wouldn't understand." Frankly, I think the reason that they won't explain isn't because he wouldn't understand, but because he would. YMMV, and probably does.

In depth articles about hardware hacking, software hacking, phreaking, schematic diagrams, source code listings, etc., it was a true nerd's dream, which was why it was the one that "employees of every other tech mag got used to being compared unfavorably with."

Same here. The two columns I looked forward to the most was Jerry Pournelle's "Chaos Manor" and Steve Ciarcia's Circuit Cellar. Luckily he started his magazine.

Falcon

The reminder of Byte's good parts - Jerry Pournelle also made me remember Steve Ciarcia.
Steve and Jerry are still around.
Steve's URL is http://www.circuitcellar.com/
Jerry's URL is http://www.jerrypournelle.com/

I took the time to subscribe to circuit cellar and to Jerry's site. They are good writers and deserve our support.

That would be Jerry Pournelle and maybe Bill Nye the science guy. http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2010/Q1/view612.html

" At one time it was a great secret [...] that we could use cosmic ray backscattering to locate deeply submerged submarines..."

Here is her story, with the broadcast from 31 years ago.
Jerry Pournelle proposed to Reagan how we should prepare for these things.
quote "In 1967 I proposed to Reagan that California create an oil spill recovery service, something like a fire department, to be financed by separation taxes from the oil industry. I later proposed it as a National Service, possibly a branch of the Coast Guard or Civil Defense. It would have a corps of professionals whose job was to learn all that was known about oil spill containment and cleanup, and others who would do research into what we don't but ought to know: what chemical detergents will aid in dispersing the oil with the least damage to the environment?
......The main lesson of the BP runaway gusher is that we must rebuild the Civil Defense organization. There are predictable potential disasters in every region, and it is clear that FEMA in particular and Washington in general is not competent to handle them. Yes, the oil disaster is a national disaster and would be were it in California or in the Gulf; but the organization of the resources of the region needs to be done in advance, and with local chains of communication and command. Yes, there needs to be research and development done before the disasters, but again, those who live in the areas will have thought more about it then someone in the old NASA building in Washington. FEMA is a disaster waiting to happen. Make that, FEMA is a disaster that has happened, is happening, and is waiting to happen again. We will always be disappointed in FEMA."

Unions have become a self perpetuating bureaucracy.

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/

"Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people: those who work to further the actual goals of the organization, and those who work for the organization itself. Examples in education would be teachers who work and sacrifice to teach children, vs. union representative who work to protect any teacher including the most incompetent. The Iron Law states that in all cases, the second type of person will always gain control of the organization, and will always write the rules under which the organization functions."

Not right now. SSTO with chemical rockets is just plain impossible. Weight-to-payload ratio is murderous.

I don't think that's been established at all. It's definitely doable if you build a really large rocket. It's not doable for a really small rocket. I think you could probably make it work for a medium-sized vehicle if you didn't have high expectations on payload side. But that's okay, since the point of a rocket like that is to fly often.

Let me echo the AC that replied mentioning Pournelle. I can't recommend How To Get To Space and also The SSX Concept highly enough.

2STO should be possible, but how would it be different from Shuttle?

It would only be beneficial if you got rid of the wings on the upper stage. IMO powered landing is crucial to reducing operational costs because you don't have the enormous heat stress on reentry. If they build a 2STO and use a shuttle-style vehicle for the second stage... well, it's a waste of money.

Were I king I'd restart DC-X and build DC-Y. I'd find out, through experimentation, exactly how much payload we can get to LEO using a VTVL SSTO, realizing the answer might be a negative number.

If that didn't work out I'd pursue a 2STO solution with the upper stage being a VTVL craft lifted from my SSTO program and the lower stage being some kind of flyback (either VTVL or VTHL).

Not right now. SSTO with chemical rockets is just plain impossible. Weight-to-payload ratio is murderous.

I don't think that's been established at all. It's definitely doable if you build a really large rocket. It's not doable for a really small rocket. I think you could probably make it work for a medium-sized vehicle if you didn't have high expectations on payload side. But that's okay, since the point of a rocket like that is to fly often.

Let me echo the AC that replied mentioning Pournelle. I can't recommend How To Get To Space and also The SSX Concept highly enough.

2STO should be possible, but how would it be different from Shuttle?

It would only be beneficial if you got rid of the wings on the upper stage. IMO powered landing is crucial to reducing operational costs because you don't have the enormous heat stress on reentry. If they build a 2STO and use a shuttle-style vehicle for the second stage... well, it's a waste of money.

Were I king I'd restart DC-X and build DC-Y. I'd find out, through experimentation, exactly how much payload we can get to LEO using a VTVL SSTO, realizing the answer might be a negative number.

If that didn't work out I'd pursue a 2STO solution with the upper stage being a VTVL craft lifted from my SSTO program and the lower stage being some kind of flyback (either VTVL or VTHL).

As a friend of mine likes to comment, "It's probably not a good idea to run an open-ended experiment of pumping CO2 into the atmosphere to see what happens." Even if AGW is the biggest scam the world has ever seen, that's still true.

I don't know which conservatives you've been talking to, but I'll bet you haven't taken a look at Jerry Pournelle. He not only wants to see us back in space ("Growing up, I always knew I'd live to see the first man on the Moon. I didn't know I'd also live to see the last one.") he wants to see the US offer an X Prize of about $10 billion or so for the first manned colony on the Moon to last at least a year. (The idea is that it costs us nothing unless somebody actually wins it)

Um.... not so much. On some of the photos, you can clearly tell that the female vict\\\\staffer has shaved her pussy. And these are very low-res images; I guarantee that if they can't make out faces, that's the ONLY thing they can't see.... http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/2010/Q1/mail604.html#Friday

The best papers I've ever read on this subject were Jerry Pournelle's Getting To Space and The SSX Concept. Basically he makes a simlar argument in the context of SSTO. The problem with the way we do space right now is it's just too expensive to do anything useful. Things we could do like space-based solar power and asteroid mining are now totally impractical because it costs, what, $20k to put a kilogram in orbit? As long as that's the case we're pretty much stuck with LEO vanity projects. We can't even afford to go back to the moon.

Getting the $/kg to LEO down should be the single-minded thrust of the US space program in the coming years.