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what makes the author think that technology will be available to most consumers within a few years?

What are you talking about? That technology was available to consumers years ago: http://onlive.com/

You mean cloud based streaming gaming. . . like OnLive or Gaikai?

The PS4 is a loss leader. You might want to put Orbis on another system, but given that Orbis is specifically tuned for the PS4 hardware and hacking it to work on another much more costly system will likely lead to nothing of great value, in the end such a project will be just for the sake of a hobby.

Sony is trying to do some steps to get rid of the "Loss Leader" thing altogether, and it will be interesting to see if they can manage to pull it: they are attempting a large scale deployement of cloud rendered gaming via Gaikai. (Do you remember Gaikai? Its competitor Onlive perhaps?)

During the 20th February show Sony made clear that with cloud based gaming it could have been possible to have a subscription to Gaikai and play demos or even full PS4 games, via cloud, on PS4, while you waited for the console to finish download (they also announced the streaming download feature which allowed you to play the game with only parts of it fully downloaded, but it's not the same thing).

At E3 the first step was detailed: making PS3 games available via cloud in 2014 to PS3 and PS4 US customers. Leaving the door open to PSVita and unspecified "further platforms".

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/02/20/playstation-cloud-revealed
This is a segment from the 10/6 E3 presentation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBmLGYi6fjI

I think PC was mentioned during the Feb 20, but now I can't find the videos on youtube.

yes it can

The concept in principle seems interesting, but are there modern examples of successful deployments of this kind?

OnLive?

Some would say it isn't successful but their issues were arguably more to do with Steve Perlman than the product itself.

http://www.onlive.com/
It's still up and running and seems to be doing a brisk business... I've never used it, though. But I'm going to check it out right now!

I believe OP is talking about:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OnLive
https://www.onlive.com/launch/trial/borderlands
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qD8KOcre7w

In which case it's rendered on the server.

The problem I see is the speed of light is too slow, so the latency can be too high for many customers unless such services locate their servers around the world.

Then again, the Android console price is only projected - it might go up

How will the price go up for people who lock in a preorder today?

$99 vs $99. No difference.

Apple TV + iPod touch: $398. Apple TV + iPad mini: $428. To be fair, if you want to play touch games, you need a tablet too, but a Nexus 7 is a bit cheaper than an iPad mini.

And the Android console will only run the few specially made games

It won't launch with as many games as the iPod touch currently has, I'll grant you that. And to be fair, I just edited Wikipedia's article about Ouya to remove a spurious claim that it'd have access to Google Play Store. But I was under the impression that in addition to specially made games, it'd launch with a large selection of OnLive games, and porting any Android game that supports iControlPad or iCade would be an easy task.

It's okay if you don't know.

Just don't go on about how the service is great or awful if you haven't tried it.

That bugs me to no end.

If it's available in your area, just try it out first, for free. Then rant either way.

However, the way some things are headed, why have any hardware at all? The only hardware you need is a screen to display the content/produce the sound which has been generated in the cloud...

And perhaps a controller or other input device.

It's been done before...

You mean... Onlive? :)

Theres at least two companies, one http://desktop.onlive.com/ and another one called CloudON that offer this kind of functionality if its really needed.

Having used the former its pretty decent and rather handy, but really I don't see the need to actually *have* Office on the iPad, the ability to use it briefly if needed is enough.

Okay I'll play, how are those Chromebook gonna run the educational software they've already bought? How is it gonna run the software that those kids will use IRL like MS Office, which BTW schools can get REAL cheap thanks to MSFT edu pricing? Answer they can't,

Ever heard of OnLive? http://www.onlive.com/

If you can play Assassin's Creed on your phone...
I think... maybe, just maybe... they can, probably
work something out... technically... probably right?
I mean... full 30fps streamed shooter is harder than
uh what was it? MS Office?

Oh wait, there's Office 360? Would that solve that
problem? Or the obvious... get off of the MS teat
and use the built in Google Docs/Apps.

Or since they own licenses for everything, just
stream the VMs to the tablets/chromebooks.
Run it all in the cloud.

So, the other "software"? That you were talking
about? Um, Rewrite? Some people get coding
jobs, or it opens new avenues of income for some?

Maybe some of the teachers it potentially does
displace, go on to write school software and become
much better off, earning more money like stalwart
educators should.

Bad thing in this economy?

-AI

A lot of the comments on here are pointing out that OnLive is a subscription service. This is not the only pricing plan they have available. Looking at their documentation on "Getting Games in the OnLive Game Service" you will notice their are multiple avenues to purchase a game.

The subscription service they offer is for a collection of ~80 titles. For most newer titles you purchase a pass to play the game. This allows access to the game for a timed interval (think multiple days like renting) or unlimited play. That is a one-time purchase just like if you purchased the title off of Steam or in a retail store. Does the full pass require a subscription? Nope. Please take a look at the documentation and pricing model before making your claims.

My housemate's an OnLive employee, so I've already tried it out. I think it's pretty good, but you can decide for yourself with their free trial.

Maybe HTC fancies making its own OnLive box with some extra home-cooked features - Apple TV with games anyone?

OnLive already sells this $99 box. http://www.onlive.com/game-system I bought one during their CES promotion for $66. Worth it. I don't own a gaming console above my ps2, and my "gaming" pc is pretty old. (more than 4 years) This purchase has allowed me to play high res new games on my 50" plasma. I like it. However their service really needs a broader spectrum of games.

Interesting comment, but going to OnLive's website shows otherwise. Try ... http://www.onlive.com/

You should keep current. They don't charge anything any more unless you want more than a trial of the game. They're charging $9.99 a month for unlimited play on a select number of games, and include service for those that want to buy a game from them.

What you're saying is what they said at launch, but as of late last year they were able to balance their books and provide service without making everybody pay a maintenance fee. OnLive: Just Play for Free!

Late to reply, but figured I will anyhow:

Aiming for a console experience includes the ability to resell games.

See my point 9...I bet you a nickel that the next gen of Xbox/PS/Wii will do everything in their power to eliminate resale.

What's the procedure that a studio is supposed to follow to get a game in?

Apparently that would be to send them an email or call them saying 'I am a developer':
http://www.onlive.com/corporate/plugin

Jack PC + OnLive = Cheap gaming cafe?

Cheap.. until you get your bill from your ISP.

Jack PC + OnLive = Cheap gaming cafe?

Or OnLive. It's in the states only right now but that is exactly what I'm looking forward to coming to Canada. I'm on board with renting games, (depending on some factors like cost). http://www.onlive.com/

Is that supposed to be ironic given the runaway success of the OnLive game service? http://www.onlive.com/

I have to agree with the top level post's stand on what piracy means for game developers. It's funny that it mentions fully online games as a means to prevent piracy just now though. I was at a party last night where I met one of the QA guys for this company:

http://www.onlive.com/

They're trying to effectively stream games rather than have any local game installs at all. I have no idea how well this works, but it would seem to be very difficult to pirate a game where you never actually possess the code. ...of course that shifts the issue of piracy (a problem for the developer) to issues of identity theft and account security (more often a problem for the player), but I suspect that this shift of downside sits just fine with the developers....

It doesn't work the way you think it works.

From Onlive's site: "OnLive recommends a wired 5 Mbps connection to the Internet..." They haven't released any technical info on their proprietary video compressor, so it's not clear where your numbers come from.

In any case, even if the full difference in serialization delay is considered (~12 ms), that is minor in comparison to the measurements.

I don't think anyone with a gaming system will be interested, but everyone else may be. Some games like RPGs can be played acceptably with a little lag, and I wouldn't mind being able to see some nice graphics on my Eee PC when I'm away from home.

Uhm, yeah, I'm gonna give you that, that would be awesome, but as you can tell from the minimum recommended system requirements, that ain't going to happen:

• PC: Windows® 7 or Vista (32 or 64-bit) or XP (32-bit)
• Mac: Mac OS X 10.6 or later
• Processor: Dual-core CPU
• Screen Resolution: 1280x720
• Internet Connection: 5 Mbps located inside the contiguous United States (wired connection required)

So I am going to assume your Eee does not have a dual-core CPU, a x720 screen resolution or always a wired connection, which means netbooks aren't welcome. But maybe they'll fix that in the future. So you can even play them on your iPad.

I don't believe it is the future you speak of; it is the present or the very near past.

You might want to post the link

It's already in the works at On Live. IMHO I think the latency related to gaming in this fashion will ruin it for everyone (unless you're playing board games or the like).

You probably saw the this from OnLive who is supposedly launching this summer though there is at least on competing service as well. The main issue with them is that it looks like you pay a monthly fee to access the service, and then you still need to purchase the individual games that are then linked to your account. Their reported ability to pause a game a anytime and then resume it minutes, hours, weeks later on a different computer located across the country is pretty neat though. As well as the fact that since they are steaming video, they added the ability to save clips after they occurred, so if you have one of those cool moments in a game you could save a clip and post it to youtube to show off to your friends.

http://www.onlive.com/

I'm sure I saw this idea somewhere. It means you will be able to play better games on worse computer, true, but I'd rather play on my computer with no need for net.

OnLive. They even do explicit distribution contracts with developers so that their games are only playable via their streaming platform, like you describe.

Buying was fine for single-player games, but MMORPGs (which are much more entertaining due to the social aspect) need a different business model.

The OnLive service which this article is about charges users a monthy fee to pay for single player games and play them remotely over the internet. It has nothing to do with MMORPGs which you've decided to base your post on.

To add to the above - their current FAQ just talks about "SD" and "HD", conveniently omitting what they mean by it. But Google remembers the older version, which had it all spelled out:

For HDTV resolution (720p60), OnLive needs 5 Mbps.

So it's 1280×720. Which is kinda meh these days for PCs, when a 24" (1920x1200) can be had for so cheap. It's definitely not what I'd call "HD".

You aren't buying games...

OnLive disagrees with you.

Through GaiKai or OnLive, sure. Keep watching for the release.

Just web apps?

Well, that's dumb.

Super Mario Brothers

And also, Gaikai and OnLive.

Which makes me wonder what the point is here really. OnLive is in testing already. TFA doesn't compare to OL so I don't know why Nvidia's offering is so much better.

Nvidia and OnLive are partners: http://www.onlive.com/partners.html

  These announcements are probably related to OnLive.

Well looks like they are getting funding from some serious players:
http://blog.seattlepi.com/techchron/archives/180603.asp
http://blog.onlive.com/2009/09/29/onlive-closes-major-investment/
AT&T Media Holdings, Inc., Lauder Partners, Warner Bros., Autodesk and Maverick Capital.

" They were all mainframe guys at insurance and automotive-related manufacturing companies, white short-sleeve shirts and pocket protectors. In 1978 I'm sure PCs and the Internet were way beyond their imagination."

That's about right. I worked at a PDP-11 shop in 77 for a year and it was there I saw a picture of a 4004 intel processor. The first single chip CPU. That could hardly get out of its own way.

Arguably there wasnt a whole lot of software that needed to be written by then. Everything you could do on an 80 column 12 line VT05 had been done. 24 lines would be a year or so later.

Then I went to the University of Waterloo and found the Unix lab, and began playing with troff. What *I* wanted was a graphics display, but that was 7 years away in the third year of grad school. I said screw that and just took off to LA and as the man said, all you had to do was show up at a computer manufacturor. They hadn't heard of C or Unix.

In the 1980s the onus was on making computers for everybody.

In the 1990s the onus was on making the net work for everybody.

What if we're done with that? Does everybody who wants one have one?

What do I think the next big thing is gonna be? Wireless meshes connecting xboxes via linksys 5 port routers like this: http://www.onlive.com/ 3D will be to graphics displays now what graphic displays were to dumb crts back then

TCP will die, but IP will stay in a modified form, V6 will never take off, DNS will be replaced by DHT. They will also be your set top boxes and these and your phone will largely replace computers as we know it and a thinkpad in 2015 will seem as obsolete as a guy on a glass tty on an old Sun seems today.

Insurance company COBOL code will always need fixing if you're into soul destroying work.

Within 20 years games may become a service like cable TV, not a product you buy and take home.

Last week at GDC there was a company called OnLive that set off a major buzz. Your 20 years might be a little pessimistic if the service takes off.

http://www.onlive.com/

GameSpot have a video of the presentation that the link in the OP is summarising (53mins).

Personally I can't fathom how they can get good quality 720p down a connection 1/3 (5Mbps) of what would be needed for MPEG2 (15Mbps). Nor how they can have low enough latency to process the controls on the server - they mention specially designed servers but they surely can't do so much better with the intertubes than gaming server hosts do already, then there's the fluctuations... I suppose we'll find out when people get onto the beta in summer.

3D Chat with Avatars?

Sounds a lot like the OnLive Traveler (which is now part of DigitalSpace).

I'm pretty sure this was around before 1996.

OnLive Traveller was doing more before that.