Slashdot Mirror
What Lies Ahead For Linux
An anonymous reader writes "Here's an interview with Stacey Quandt, a Linux and open source industry analyst. She explains why she feels Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system within the next three years." There's some interesting tidbits on what it takes to be an industry analyst as well, and some looking back to when most analysts were unaware of Linux.
Nice out-of-context hyperbole. She was referring to shipments of new boxes in the server market. In terms of desktop market share, she says that mere parity would take "a long time", and she's looking forward to a modest 10% share (essentially changing from a "fringe" player to a commonly-supported niche player) as a significant milestone.
http://alternatives.rzero.com/
I still favor Linux over Windows when it comes to stability, but there are several other facets of the Windows operation system and Microsoft philosophy that turn me (and likely other Slashdotters) off. First, security. I don't like my browser or mail client doing things I'm not explicitly aware of. I cannot use Windows with a clear conscience because of IE's and Outlook's persistent security failures. Add in IIS for Windows incarnations with IIS installed an running. This is compounded by the fact that these pieces of software cannot be uninstalled. I don't really care about the monopoly angle with the bundling of IE/Outlook. Linux distros "bundle" similar items if not more which I like. The difference is that if someone finds a bug in Mozilla that puts me or my network at risk, I can wipe it clean from my hard drive and fall back on alternative software packages.
Cost is another obvious difference, but one that I think will eventually catch up to Microsoft more than any antitrust case or business practice. It's evolution, baby. The personal computer is still a wonderful, versatile thing. I use it to write, program, listen to music, watch movies, capture/edit/burn digital video, and game. But it isn't a new concept on which a business can build on and dominate market share any more. There are a growing number of open source software projects that meet or even exceed their commercial competitors capabilities. OpenOffice, Mozilla, and Apache to name a few. There's three software projects right there that are relevant to the corporate world's preoccupation with information technology.
Commercial software that meets a need or niche that open source solutions cannot fill is going the way of the dinosaurs. They had their chance, but it's not the way I see software evolving. Why depend on a single commercial source for solutions when you can support a core group of developers in producing a piece of software that everyone can benefit from?
I don't so much find Windows to be inferior. It's just that Linux and the canon of open source software built upon it make so much more sense financially, socially, and from an engineering standpoint.
There is no god
Did they include some pictures... it, uh... helps me with my advocacy. Oh, they did. h0t!
Very unlikely ... a lot of extra market gained, yes. But overtake? I doubt it. I doubt it for 5 years. I'd believe it in the 10 year period.
KDE and Gnome are very good now, and until Longhorn is released I think that Linux will get a better desktop than Windows. However Longhorn will enable Windows to catch up with MacOSX 10.2 finally, and Linux will be left behind both again.
GNU/Linux is what we know as the "operating system".
Please Drive Through.
"When life gives you lemons, don't make lemonade. Make life take the lemons back!" -- Cave Johnson
He wants his headline back.
I thought the Slashdot editors would have caught this mistake when they read the article...
;-)
Oh. Nevermind.
but there are a lot more computers that aren't servers. Linux will overtake windows when it's installed on more computers than windows, probably more than 3 years from now if it happens.
An industry analyst not directly influenced by the Linux community.
Can we find any other analyst with similiar undue influences with the other O/S vendors?
Would the owner of a black and white 1992 penguin please report to the front desk.
I would doubt anyone would agree with the statement that Linux could overtake windows in 3 years, it will take a lot longer and more team work from the linux people to make this happen, not to mention Linux better start getting the support of gamers who can drive the sales of OS purchases.
**It runs through my veins like radioactive rubber pants! Do not deny my veins!**
Analysts exist solely to pimp products for vendors. When an XYZ Analyst tells you that XYZ is going to take over the world in 3 years, you can safely ignore it. That holds true whether XYZ==Push Technology or XYZ==Linux.
what's the big deal with wanting to have linux be the #1 os? is a larger user base worth the effort?
'cause some people say that linux has to become more "usable" to broaden its user base, and that would change the philosophy a bit
I like that name. That's a very clear title for Microsoft. It definitely would get the attention of someone undecided about MS vs Linux.
"Well, you could buy OS and related products from a convicted monopolist, or you could get these open source products (and buy professional support) from these (_list_) vendors."
.sigs are for post^Hers.
And it's written by a troll, probably to regain Karma. Check his history.
All she said was that Linux would take the lead based on all new server shipments, which I think is very plausible. Not only does this not mean that there will be more Linux desktops than Windows, but in fact for a brief period there will still be more Windows servers in use.
"There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals."
Sorry, is anyone going to be shipping Linux pre-installed, out of the store? In-store demos?
Yes.
I thought it was another dupe post about Microsoft strategy memos
Don't blame Durga. I voted for Centauri.
How many years before the server/desktop OS becomes irrelevant? The apps make the platform valuable, not the OS.
Yeah, right.
Anyone who has read more than 2-3 reports from the "big boys" like Gartner can easily answer that one. Not much, save zero morals/integrity.
I worked for a company which dealt exclusively with whitepapers written by the big analyst houses. The reports were widely known to be staggeringly poor, often blatantly wrong. It was hardly surprising that they were a royal pain in the ass to deal with on a technical level; getting them to use FTP to upload their content was nearly impossible. IT industry experts who can't figure out FTP. Special.
I've seen numerous comments here on /., on stories about both pro and anti linux analyst reports, talking about how much of a joke these companies are. Most of the analyst groups do huge amounts of "commissioned analysis", which is then passed off as being legitimate, unbiased analysis- when it is nothing of the sort.
Analyst groups have turned into little more than for-hire technical marketing (the computer industry's version of "military intelligence") who spew out documents just technical enough to impress/confuse the top brass.
Please help metamoderate.
Oh no.
Linux has been "overtaking windows in the next 3 years" for at least the last 6 years,
probably more. Don't get me wrong. I'm all for running Linux on some non-critical servers.
But on desktop it's a freaking joke. I mean, you still can't play multiple sounds in Linux
at the same time (unless you use a laggy userland daemon that takes a second to unpause your mp3,
or buy a "supported" audio card with hardware mixing). For some reason Linus has a problem with
putting kernel audio mixer (something Windows had since Win98 (and probably '95 but I'm not too sure))
into kernel-mode, so now all "desktop linux" users are stuck with playing one audio stream at a time.
Even FreeBSD, a much less "desktop" oriented OS (at least it isn't claiming to be "the windows killer"
on the desktop every few months), has kernel audio mixing support since like 5.x-CURRENT. So this
was one tiny nitpick about audio, something people on "desktop" will probably need sooner or later.
How about video? Windows supports almost every known video card out of the box, while to get any kind
of decent graphics in Linux you need to buy a "supported" video card. How many "corporate desktops"
you know of that run on exotic "custom ordered" hardware? They all use precanned HP/Dell/Whatever
desktops with generic onboard video and audio. Unless Linux will automatically without *any* problems
installs on this class of hardware, forget using it for corporate desktops.
And to sum this up, I guess the real reason Linux isn't going to be overtaking anything "in the next
3 years", is the group mentality of Linux users in general. There are literally hundreds of half-assed
"distributions" of Linux. And new ones seem to be popping up at an amazing speed. Compare that to
the *BSD family, where there is only one "distribution" for each flavor (FreeBSD, NetBSD, OpenBSD) and
once you know one, you should have no problems migrating to any other *BSD family. In Linux, every
distribution seems to want to invent their own packaging system, configuration system, etc etc.
People, this is not how you win users. You win users by creating a standard, easy to use system.
Forget the 100's of distributions. Create a single standard and make everyone use it. Then, only then
you might have some chance at a "desktop OS".
Doh ... Remind me not to simply trust weget :-)
http://mirrorit.demonmoo.com/r_7/www-1.ibm.com/lin ux/news/stacey.shtml%3Fca=dgr-lnxw01StacyQuandt
Note to Mods: When I post mirrors, it's a best guess. I don't know for certain whether or not the site will go down!
The big problem is getting computer literate people behind the keyboard. Since we have joe-idiot running his home PC, you won't get the desktop market... the easier-to-use Windows software will dominate.
Servers, on the other hand, should be linux's play ground.
She explains why she feels Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system within the next three years.
Actual quote:
Within the next three years I believe Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system based on new server shipments. [emphasis added]
But really, how many more total computers in the world could there be in three years compared to new servers? It's probably negligible.
Call this flamebait if you may, but slashdot idiot editors do it again.
They let this print as "Windows as the number one operating system within the next three years"
HERES THE REAL QUOTE FROM THE ARTICLE FOLKS:
"I think that's going to happen sooner. I believe we'll see Linux overtake Windows on the server within the next three to four years, as measured by new server shipments."
-- So, like I said, why don't the editors read the fucking article and make edits to the submission (if neccisary)?
Ugh, this has turned out just as inconsistant as the sunday morning newspaper.... details being skewed and all...
On the server side it's already happening, with web-servers, app-servers, database-servers, mail servers, etc, etc, etc. That is where MS gets some pretty big revenue for licensing, but with their closed source code, and poor track record on security it makes a lot of business sense to go with the more secure, stable, and more responsive release/bug fix product than MS. IT managers are starting to see this, and there are several vendors ready and waiting to provide Linux support.
On the desktop, OO.o is starting to get there, ximian, mozilla, etc, etc, etc are really top notch apps.
The major hurdle here is that Windows is pre-installed on probably 93% of all computers sold, and I have yet to see a retailer (Best Buy, Circuit City, yadda yadda yadda) offer to sell pre-build systems with Linux installed. MS is winning this game because Windows is already installed! the user doesn't have to do anything. And most users are already familiar with Windows (BSOD, Netsky etc ;).....That aside, if any major retailer would do a side by side feature/price comparison between Windows and Linux, AND offer to install Linux for a small fee. Then MS would probably REALLY start paying attention.
Q:Any thoughts when Linux might overtake Windows on the server side?
A:...I believe we'll see Linux overtake Windows on the server within the next three to four years, as measured by new server shipments.
does not equal:
She explains why she feels Linux will overtake Windows as the number one operating system within the next three years.
did the poster even RTFA? Oh, that's right, I must be reading Slashdot again...
OK, you are mirroring an article served by ibm.com. You think they have a shortage of bandwidth? You are also not posting anonymously.
Stop being a karma whore. This is not the first time you needlessly put up a mirror.
I went into reading this article skeptical because of the "3 years to taking over the world" comment.
I realized, of course, that it was really talking about "new server shipments". However, I came out of reading it still skeptical because this "analyst" undoubtedly has such a huge personal stake in telling people that linux will take over the world. If linux died tomorrow, she would be out of a job. What do you think her analysis is going to be?
"as if nothing were solid...and that would be the end of the world, not fire and brimstone, but goo."--Rand
2 possibilities:
gnome and kde can beat windows to the punch and put in features that surpass longhorn
or.....
Longhorn's interface pisses people off too much, and they crave a more traditional interface. (which I personally hate myself)
if all else fails, make an enlightenment clone that would be more windows user friendly, and with some badass themes...
but really, most windows users dont care about the interface as much as software compatibility, they want their programs to work. they're often afraid of alternatives.
etc.. it's a complicated debate that often starts a flamewar and I dont wanna go there.
well, once upon this time there was this guy who said "I don't have a physics background, I process patent applications..."
She's saying that for desktop "the timeframe is more like the next two years". I just don't see this happening. There's too many usability issues with Linux desktop today.
I really would like to see some serious co-operation with KDE and GNOME teams, for example, to get their software working more uniform way, and more importantly - to get OS developers realize that they need to focus more on usability and some common interface guidelines instead of just adding new features on every new release.
Yet another self-appointed expert who we should take notice of? Not this unit. Actually I hope she is right as far as her Linux predictions but really she doesn't sound like she knows what she's talking about. This is the sort of story you'd expect to read in mainstream press. Sorry karma police but less of this sort of stuff please.
to macs and windows machines.
The only thing that has always kept me from doing the full conversion is the lack of multimedia support on linux. Also, drivers can be an issue sometimes. The day I ll be able to use my linux like I use my windows and better if possible, then I'll switch. People have a way too professional and technical look at the windows/linux debate that omits the interests and needs of basic users. I m happy to boot my comp, have NvDVD play my DVDs, photoshop lying around and not crazy file extensions and tricky installs to do.
Wow, someone really had to pull their arm out of its socket for this back slapping out-of-context statement. Man the quality of Slashdot has turned to complete shite.
Can they possibly turn this site into any more of a pro-linux rag? Is it at all possible? I guess we'll just have to wait and see...
Microsoft is an "unstoppable" mega-corporation. Any legitimate competition is crushed by the might of Microsoft. Try to develop a for-profit operating system to compete with Windows and you'll get crushed. Try and develop a for-profit word-processor to compete with Word and you'll get crushed. Microsoft has reached the top of the food chain.
Legitimate for-profit companies cannot compete against Microsoft. Due to this fact, "free" software, such as Linux and Open-Office, has bubbled to the surface as the only possible contender in the evolutionary struggle against Microsoft. Providing "free" software is the only way to possibly compete against Microsoft. There would not have been a need for "free" software if Microsoft had not crushed all possible means of fair competition.
This lack of competition also hurts Microsoft because: a competitor, in general, only needs to be better than his next closest rival. If there are no close competitors then Microsoft does not need to improve. If it does not improve it will stagnate, whither, and die. It will be overrun by the weeds of small "free" software projects just waiting to get out from underneath the shadow of the mighty giant Microsoft.
My majors were chemistry and Asian Studies in college. Am I working in a chemical factory in Asia now? No. Am I a geek reading Slashdot at work and replying to you? Hell yeah!
If you cannot go beyond judging a book by its covers, you should not be judging.
Probably blow my good karma with this, but oh well
:)
I agree with everyone that Linux has become more usable and more security oriented(depending on the admin), but the bottom line is that as far as corporations and windows in the workplace goes, I doubt linux will grab a significant user base because of some basic reasons:
1. Alot of corporations will cling to windows because 99.9% of their userbase is on windows right now. They realize that there is cheaper alternatives out there (linux) but they rather stay with what they are using because it will cause less headaches for the IT dept. and operations as a whole will run smoother without messing with the OS that they are using.
2. Users in the workplace are comfortable with windows because it is what they know. Applications are not quite as cryptic and windows is truly a morons operating system which is what the vast majority of users in the workplace are.
3. The cost of hiring systems administrators is pretty close of linux vs. windows, but the cost of deploying software and the simplification that microsoft has deployed in this area is still untouched.
again, my argument is staged more to linux in the workplace and not in the end users hands which is probably where linux has more potential to grow.
prepare to see this posting get modded all over the place
Those who trade in their freedom for security, deserve neither.
1981 Personal Computer Catalog
[ Hardware ]
Posted by michael in The Mysterious Future!
from the old-skool dept.
edibobb writes "I just fired up my scanner and uploaded the 35-page 1981
(+/- 1 year) personal computer catalog from American Small Business
Computers. 16K RAM for $22; 10 megabyte hard drive, 5 meg fixed and 5
removeable, with 14-inch platters; 25-character per second printer.
Things have changed a bit since then!"
See any serious problems with this story? Email our on-duty editor.
( Read More... )
Yeah, for everyone who's wondering, that was Einstein.
If my answers frighten you, stop asking scary questions.
The only reason someone modded you as "Overrated" is because you dared say Linux won't be the magical successor to Windows and OS X.
Also, Overrated" and "Underrated," don't get metamodded. It's a convenient loophole for when you want to silence an opinion without consequence.
While this person is certainly a moron, I think that if you judge CS-worthiness on whether it was a person's major in school, you're doing much of the free software community great discredit. The fact of the matter is, most CS-majors couldn't code their way out of a wet paper bag -- much less solve a problem elegantly. CS majors are like art majors, you know: just because you studied the technique doesn't mean you have the talent. Talent is something you are born with, and is grown by love of a subject. Not by university classes and a desire to benefit financially from what you erroneously thought would be a hot field when you graduated.
Sadly, most CS majors are like this.
Further, many of the most brilliantly savvy computer people I've met studied other stuff in school. Only stupid people excel at only one thing.
Somebody set us up the bomb!!
What people will care about is, "Can this run my digital camera? Can I run the Sims on this? No? Oh. Convicted monopolist? I don't care, I don't use my computer that much anyway. I just want to play games and use my camera..."
The USSR, the plantation system, the railroad barrons, the oil barrons, the shipping tycoons.
... Well the fact is, MS's isn't competing against an opperating system, they are competing against a superior paradigm - and their half trillion market cap is nothing compaired to the yearly output of global industry. If they don't go with the flow, they will get squissed like a bug. like it or not.
Alot of times people have this misconception that something can be too big, too huge, too much talent and resources behind it to fall from greatness. This isn't true. How many times have we herd that "MS won't let it happen"
Assume I was drunk when I posted this.
Pictures at 11.
She mentioned the isolation of being the only woman at Linux meetings...anyone have any serious idea of what percentage of /. readers are female.
I would guess it is less than 2%.
For once, I found an analyst whom I can tolerate. Does this women have a blog ?
:wq
CAPTAIN!!!
Anyone remember that study put out that showed Linux was the most-breached OS on the Internet? The headline was magically changed to "Most Attacked" on the Internet.
Or that big headline breathlessly declaring that "Microsoft Violates Human Rights In China," because the oppressive Chinese government uses Windows. Never mind that China has its own custom Linux distribution, and Red Hat changed flags to sell there. But we never got an "OSS Violates Human Rights" article.
Or when a new user-ran executable mail attachment worm comes out, and the headline is "New Microsoft Hole" (real article).
Before I'm accused of being a Microsoft lackey, I use Gentoo and FreeBSD 5.2.1, and I think Linux is fun to play with, but yes, I do switch to Windows to get things done. I even use it to code PHP and SQL using Dreamweaver MX 2004. Just saying I use whatever gets the job done, be it Linux, BSD, or Windows.
What bugs me is that Taco says Slashdot is his hobby site, completely ignoring that it declares itself as "news" and has become the bastion for geek tech opinion on the Internet. A lot of newbies come here and form their worldview based entirely on Slashdot headlines, hence the foaming-at-the-mouth anti-"M$" and "file sharing is free advertising" zealots. To ignore the influence of this website (it takes out entire sites just by posting their links!) and continue to post misleading articles, often rife with falsehoods, typos, and duplicates, is just silly. But then again, here I am reading it.
This is pretty simple to sum up in my mind. Although my desktop is still running windows at work, at home I rarely see it.
But when asked the question why I have moved to Open Office from Microsoft Office, and why I have moved to Linux from Windows, what is the answer?
It's mostly about rights and freedom. I'm not yet willing to admit that I am a full out FSF supporter, though I have been a supporter of the Open Source movement. Microsoft's licensing tactics (and not just theirs but the general tactics of many other folks have led me as far away from proprietary "treat-the-custer-as-a-theif" software as I can possibly get.
Linux is great, and it has been an incredible learning experience (I've honestly never felt so dumb sitting in front of a command prompt as I did during my first Gentoo installation).
I was never a *NIX user. I never had any desire to run anything other than Windows because I was happy with the product.
But they forced me to look elsewhere, and when I did I learned what I was missing.
So IMO, what lies ahead for linux is more users...and I don't believe that is limited to the server. From the desktop side, the strides that have been made in KDE and GNOME in the last couple of revisions have made them dramatically nicer to work with. From the server side...not having to have a GUI running on a server is quite a bit more efficient.
Back in the day I remeber Microsoft recommending you change the screen saver to the black screen instead of one of those OpenGL screen savers on your Windows NT SQL server because the screen saver would bury your processor. I couldn't help but think why do I have this huge GUI running on what is supposed to resemble a somewhat powerful database server?!!
"God is dead!" - Nietzsche
"Nietzsche is dead!" - God
Let's say Windows get's overtaken. Fine. You do realize MS-Linux will come out? And people will buy it.
In droves.
MS will then have 95% of the Linux desktop market.
What will you rail against then? Distro jihad?
Or will you finally grow up?
Industry analysts are often wrong. If they were on target all of the time they wouldn't give out advice. They'd instead make a killing on the stock market.
Those who can, do... those who can't, analyze.
link
Replace "NT" with "Longhorn" and change the dates and it still works!!!
- "When you want something with all your heart, the entire universe conspires to give it to you" -Paulo Coelho
and neither is the author
Why, calling youself an "industry analyst" of course.
.....What, you expected a list of credentials?
Life is too short to proofread.
What Lies Ahead For Linux!
This punctuation brought to you by your friends at Microsoft.
-- Don Carcharo
Let's put that in context, too. She's saying that desktops will grow significantly over the next two years, while servers will actually become a majority of new shipments in three. Here's the relevant excerpt (emphasis mine):
According to netcraft's poll of nearly 50 million webservers apache is already the dominant webserver in the world. Assuming that 50% of these servers are running a unix or linux (and this is a guess only, the statistics do not extend to the actual operating system being used), non-microsoft operating systems would still be in a very viable position to dominate at least the webserver market. Time will tell i suppose.
BeauHD. Worst editor since kdawson.
After a few years of every seeing the infamous "Linux on the desktop in ___ years!" every couple weeks, I start to read these stories like this:
;)
Here's an interview with Stacey Quandt, a Linux and open source industry analyst. She explains why she feels Linux will overtake Windows--blah blah blah blah--skip to next story
Okay, I even add: Linux on the desktop? Haven't they used OS X yet?
*and* the original poster is slashdot user #1328!!
:)
http://slashdot.org/~charlie
Charlie, um, you were a bit off. Nice to see you're still a geek, though.
- "When you want something with all your heart, the entire universe conspires to give it to you" -Paulo Coelho
As an ex-analyst who moved back to software development, I would add a few other things for my fellow Slashdotters:
... "In that time we'll see tremendous growth" ...'"Tremendous" means that we're going to see it move from being a fringe market..." I suppose I agree with Stacy about her actual conclusions, but the phrasing struck me as being about as optimistically phrased as one could expect given the underlying statements about Linux on the desktop.
;-)
1) If you want to be an good analyst, you need to be able to write English; preferrably fairly easily and fairly well. Speaking skills can be learned on the job. Overcoming writers block probably can't.
2) Tech skills can give an analyst an important filter and BS detector which can be a competitive advantage versus other analysts. However, ability to communicate with techies does not pay off. Techies aren't spending thousands of dollars for insight. Managers are. Ability to communicate with management and market the value of the service you provide is the paramount skill for an analyst.
3) In my view, the important milestones that lie ahead for Linux all have to do with success as a database server. That's where the most critical business data is, that's where the money is, and if a company trusts their data to Linux, what will they not trust Linux for? It's also a technology space that's complementary to Linux's existing strengths in webservers and web services, and it plays well to Linux's developer (not end-user)-orientation while avoiding the desktop usability and UI-training issues where Linux continues to play catch-up. In terms of specific milestones, I would track the percentage of applications being deployed in Fortune 500 with Linux hosting the database. And I would track the growth of applications employing open source databases. A Linux firmly entrenched as a database platform is a Linux not easily dislodged by Microsoft-induced desktop trendiness. Witness the billions upon billions continually invested in mainframes and AS/400 if you doubt me.
4) I'm personally agnostic about whether Linux will ever make headway on the desktop. If pressed for a conclusion, I confess that I doubt it, although if I was afraid of the Linux advocate hordes, I might couch it like Stacy did: "potential for a lot of innovation"... "a lot of potential for Linux to become a much stronger play there"... "next milestone to look for is when Linux takes 10% of the market"
More constructively, in terms of adding to that 'desktop milestone' analysis, another milestone to watch for is when Linux desktop developers spend more time trying to understand how the Mac OS X guys tackle the usability problem than they spend trying to copy the Windows approach blindly in the techy details while missing the bigger picture.
I used to get paid 20k... now I'll settle for 2 karma. Ah the price of doing what you love...
--LP
I don't care if Linux ever is the dominent OS. I like Linux better, and I'm glad I can use it. As long as it remains as useful to me as it is now I don't think I'll ever care who "owns the desktop."
I'm not a C programmer. I just do Perl and shell scripting. I still can't get games to work for my daughter using Winex. Usually the keyboard and mouse don't work. How long will it be before it works better?
It's kind of fun to watch the NBM'ers hemorrhage last week's statistics when they're confronted with the obvious.
Open source will win, not because of any moral issues but because of economics. Individual markets can defy gravity for a while, but sooner or later the more effecient model comes out on top. And it's not MSFT.
I've watched Linux make huge strides over the last couple years and my perception is the pace of improvement is accelerating. MSFT simply can't move that fast. The change will happen on the business desktop first because business doesn't care about multimedia and gaming. The fact that Linux doesn't play every media stream or load every crap piece of spyware is a bonus in the workplace. Plus it gives businesses a lot of power and flexibility in managing their desktops.
The combination of freedom and flexibility would win out on their own, the cost savings are just a bonus. Take this quote:
"For large organizations looking to reduce the costs of the desktop significantly, Star Office looks compelling. Siemens did a trial project to test the Ximian/OpenOffice/Linux combination with office staff in Germany last year. (Open Office has some minor differences to StarOffice, such as fewer fonts and graphics) Siemens concluded that changing to Linux and StarOffice was no more expensive than a Windows upgrade - in terms of training. On top of that, it saved 20 to 30 per cent in administration costs, 50 per cent in hardware costs and 80 per cent in licensing costs. Pretty compelling when you think about it."
Source: http://www.theregister.com/2004/04/29/staroffice_r eaches_maturity/
Compelling, duplicatable and inevitable. Hopefully you didn't get a second mortgage for those .NET classes.
That's our life, the big wheel of shit. - The Fat Man, Blue Tango Salvage
She seems overly optimistic on the desktop side.
There are 3 remaining things standing in Linux's way: the applications, the drivers, and the Windows emulator.
The drivers are the most worrisome bottleneck. Until Linux has an 80% chance of installing on a randomly-selected x86 box (with full support for the add-on cards), it's shut out of the desktop market. With the staggering diversity of cards, this problem is many years away from a solution.
I'm also worried about the Windows emulator. It needs to run over 80% of all software in actual use (not just MSOffice, but touchy stuff like games too), without any noticeable loss of speed. This problem is potentially fixable, since a deep-pocket like IBM could theoretically step in and fund this piece -- but there's no guarantee that will happen.
How come we can't joke about physics? Or moles? I always thought physics jokes were funny.
Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.
I'm sorry but this is just bad analysis. Stacey Quandt will sooner be one of the unemployed dot-commers than Microsoft will lose it's monopoly.
First thing, people don't just up and sell their computers for no reason and fewer still change the OS on the system they already exist. Everyone I know is perfectly content with what they have right now and have no plans to upgrade. Second, even if they did want to upgrade, common sense tells them not too since they can do what they want with what they have and the extra cash is better spent elsewhere.
The life cycle of computers is increasing. I've had a DP 450 mac for 4 and a half years or so. It still runs like a champ and I have no reason thusfar to upgrade. My next machine may last me 5 years too. So how does Stacey Quandt expect Linux to overtake windows in 3 years when people are spending a lot more time with what they have now?
No, my guess is Stacey Quandt will be out of a job in 3 months. 3 years from now Stacey Quandt will be saying "Damn, I wish I had actually done my job rather than spouting propoganda. Maybe I'd still be making big bucks rather than changing cum stained bed sheets down at the Mobil 6 for a living". Analysis like this bring back the "OMFG THE NEXT BILLION DOLLAR IPO" days.
How long have Linux buffs been saying that "In a few years, Linux will overtake Windows..."
It's a noble goal, and it would be awesome if it happened. But the reality is that, overtaking Windows is a goal that 1) Is fairly unrealistic in the short-term, and 2) Is fairly pointless.
Why would you want Linux to become the "normal" OS? I always thought that one of the main advantages of using Linux was because it was different. Something unique and that a lot of people haven't even heard of.
Linux is becoming commercialized. All the press about Linux now comes from companies who want to sell their wares, not give them away.
Maybe I want to compile my kernel to get support for sound. Maybe I want to manually edit my X config files, bypassing all warnings about my monitor bursting into flames. Maybe, just maybe I like that sort of thing... and I don't want it to be dumbed down to be like Windows, I don't want it to ride the golden cow god of popularity all the way to the bank, and replace the image of a Bill Gates as the borg with Tux as the icehouse penguin.
...and they said they're running out of you!
(sorry, had to)
"Ask not what your country can do for you." --John F. Kennedy
>> Hi their, just in case things go sidewise as it were I have put up a mirror. As Huge as slashdot is, I doubt we'll kill IBM's website.
Stop the Slashdot effect! Don't read the articles!
Here's why against your arguments:
... reformat. When entire chunks of companies are looking at nothing but the BIOS info they'll SERIOUSLY re-think the whole matter.
... will completely trash the system leaving you staring at nothing but ... BIOS.
... Sure, the need for better GUI based configuration routines are being worked on and coming. I will say there is nothing like coding for Linux sitting in front of OS X. :)
... while Windows will sometimes work, sometimes won't. Some Windows applications won't work right, or at all. Heck, some Windows patches require you to run around manually rebooting problem systems -- I've seen 1/10th the headaches dealing with NBM systems.
... and watch as business WILL roll with Linux ... and care to bet what the home users follow with? I can't count how many Linux distro CD's I've sent home with people who's 95 or Me box did this or that and won't work right anymore... One of the reasons Microsoft made it to the top was BECAUSE of the pirating going on. Ssshhhh, here, take it. It'll be OK. Well ... we, the geeks, FUCKED IT UP. We, the geeks, WILL fix it. The best part? It's not illegal this time...as Microsoft is pinching their users with activation keys and phoning home.
1. One of these Blaster type worms will come along. AV software won't catch it while it migrates through web servers (and then clients using IE), also via Outlook, and of course the direct connections. Login
1b. Another real option (based on Microsoft's history of code writing) is that one of these updates that comes along -- which EVERYBODY is trying to install quick and fast
2. OO or WordPerfect (for Linux) sure don't seem cryptic to any of my users. Click File, Open,
3. Have you deployed large scale software roll outs for Linux? Or patched hundreds of systems that needed it due to, oh my gosh, a flaw that was found (and typically fixed if it is serious within 24 hours)? I've done it for Windows, Linux, and OS X. OS X wins hands down (GUI or command line is trivial to deal with), Linux can easily be made to work "magic"
May you be modded up
What people will care about is, "Can this run my digital camera? Can I run the Sims on this? No? Oh. Convicted monopolist? I don't care, I don't use my computer that much anyway. I just want to play games and use my camera..."
And download lots of free music and movies without getting swatted by the RIAA!
(Though I'll admit -- the consumer market is different than the server / business desktop market.)
Tweet, tweet.
Abusing your monopoly is. You buy products from monopolies all the time. Try to buy a landline or cable TV from the company that doesn't have wire presence in your area, and you'll see what I mean.
I'm actually surprised people considered my statement flamebait. If you were in charge of hiring someone to provide her services, giving "strategic advice to IT vendors" who are considering Linux, would you even interview someone who majored in art history and Chinese poetry?
Wow, slashdot has a new story saying how an analyst thinks linux will over take windows in the next 3 days.
Come on folks, I LOVE linux, but haven't we heard this song and dance before?
Derek Greene
It took Microsoft a while to bring Windows up to some semblance of stability
If you love your kittens, you will never utter those words together in the same sentence again. Ever.
Nice how the article doesn't refer to the fact that she was booted out of OSDL cause she knows jack shit about Linux.
It depends on what else is on their resume. I sure as hell would not want to hire a CS grad who is just a heads-down coder with no understanding of market forces, human motivations or legal systems like patent law. Very few attributes define an entire person, and a college degree is definitely not one of them.
When information is power, privacy is freedom.
Actually you're 100% wrong here - in addition to Linux and AIX based systems, IBM ships a lot of windoze peecees and makes a lot of money on them, so they would naturally be more objective than a company such as, oh, say, mickeysoft - which is trying frantically to promote, market, hype and sell one and only one "os".
Let me try to put this in a way that you might understand: Let's say you go to a Fiat salesman working on commission - is he going to tell you the fine points of a lexus? no way.
I hate stupid fucking trolls. Quit complaining and actually try to make whatever you think sucks to work better. I'm sure any of the open source projects would gladly accept your donations to help.
Scott
Why don't you read the damn article
before passing judgements?
The claim that was made was that Linux
would overtake Windows within three years,
*based on new server sales*. It is not
unreasonalbe to think that it could be
true. IIRC, Windows has something over
half of Server shipments, and Linux has
something over a quarter of Servers.
Oh. At fist glance, I thought that "lies" was being used as a noun and that this was another SCO story. Never mind.
We will take some random people in the following magnitudes and administer an OS test to see who's really king. Now I agree that Windows has a greater advantage because of market share, HOWEVER that's the real world and the one we play in.
30, 9th graders selected at random
30, Fresh high school grads
60, members of the general population
30, persons age 30-60
30, persons age 60+
30 small business _owners_ not in IT
FYI this is 210 people.
We will have them attempt the following tasks Using the latest versions of
WindowsXP,
RedHat,
Linspire
OS X
Participants will be timed and rewarded with a prize if they succeed in their tasks, say a candy bar (to simulate a work environment where they would get money)
There will be two tasks to do 1/2 of each group will do each
The first half will have to complete the tasks without any documentation other than what is provided standard ON SCREEN.
The second half with a full printed manual including screen shots and detailed step by step instructions
Our tests will be
Install the OS (I realize this isn't realistic cause every Mac already comes with it but it'll have to do)
Create 5 users
Log in as one of the users and complete the following tasks
Write a complex document with some formatting and colors and save it as a HTML document
configure e-mail and send that HTML document to someone
make a spread sheet and save it to a location and upload it to a website
Users will have to find and install all the software to do these things either durring the OS install or from the Internet, they can make 2 phone calls durring the test
Then we'll see what OS is really easiest and fastest and cheapest, we'll assume these people all cost $0.002 per second... Meaning that the commercial OSes already start with quite an expensive handicap.
I'm sure with some more time and thought one could make this more fair but I personally expect OSX (Followed by Linspire) to win the on screen only event by a wide margin even considering the heavy price tag of the OS (we'll just assume a PC that costs as much G4 to level the feild) Most of us have seen a newbie use OS X and it's almost like they know what their doing..... For the well documented test I would expect Linspire to win followed by RedHat.
Now test could be expanded to setting up a small office network typical to a small business, I once again expect OS X to clean up
You work for Sun, yeah?
This once again demonstrates that Linux users are no different from other computer geeks: they will talk/listen to any good-looking woman regardless of what comes out of her mouth.
This woman has no f*cking idea of what the future of Linux will be (not that anyone else does either).
HA! Everyone knows it's going to take four years.
If it's not Consolidated Lint, it's just fuzz!
Stacey Quandt joined OSDL as principal analyst in September 2003 - press release.
LWN coverage of the appointment.
Quandt appears to no longer work for OSDL as she is credited in the featured article as "Stacey Quandt Industry Analyst, Quandt Analytics". Her bio at the bottom of this newsforge story also describes her as no longer working for OSDL. Would be interesting to know her reasons for leaving.
Lies indeed.
A few days back, we were evaluating a choice of Linux platforms for a customer, for the purpose of using as web-proxy agents, using a specially tuned TCP stack. One of the things we came up against was a lack of documented research on Linux stability; other than the Linux Test Project, I couldn't find any figures on the Internet, as to the MTBF of different Linux configurations; even very standard ones like Redhat. Montavista HA Linux also doesn't seem to be publicly benchmarked. Is there some source that I missed?
If I could effect any change, it would be to encourage more women to enter the Linux ecosystem.
What's not to like?
-1 Uncomfortable Truth
I took courses in Mandarin and art history and Chinese poetry and Chinese literature
I'm wondering why IBM chose to highlight a techless zeeboid who, by her own admission, fumbled onto Linux because no one else was there, and not by any particular brilliance, foresight, understanding, or wisdom.
IBM: when you artificially inflate false oracles in an effort to bolster self, you look all the more stupider to all those of us who already knew, a decade ago, what would happen with Linux.
You should choose more wisely.
well let's see..
.net
... bug fixes and support for hardware that's been around for years. NO INNOVATION
.net framework is going to draw a lot of developers, since it delivers results, and results == cash, cars, and women.
stiff competition from longhorn and
the linux market had a window (haha) of oppertunity between the releases of 2k and xp since not much changed: so that was an excellent time to catch up, and maybe even innovate some...
but so far they've blown it.
longhorn is on its way dawning in the age of hardware accelerated desktops. (to name a few of the revolutionary advancements)
what's linux coming out with? *crickets chirping*
with each kernel release what's in the list of "new features"?
so mr.linux, maybe it's time to stop playing catch up, and make windows scramble for a change, otherwise where are you going?
if you don't change direction, you end up where you're going.
then there's C#...
sure people say it's just another java; but it already has a larger set of tools and resources and has been around for much less time.
the
hell even redhat, one of the largest linux distros, threw in the towel realizing there's no money to be made, and no way to compete...
Why would i write something in c++ on linux that takes a year, if i can do it in 2 months in c# and have a product that automatically takes advantage of new architectures? (see 32->64bit and the CLR)
another note, market share isn't a measure of anything (windows just happens to have the largest marketshare), so if the industry sees linux market share growing--then well who cares, since there's no money in open source now is there? The increase in linux use is probably mostly to third world countries finally getting online and not being able to afford windows.
so who are you gonna take advice from on what platform to develop?
microsoft who's made billions doing it?
or some high school kids running linux and smoking pot?
up to you.
-judging another only defines yourself
Because analysts tend to play the role of pundit they can come across as insightful or just plain idiotic. [note: fixed typo on "plain"]
:-)
Best quote ever. Darn, it's refreshing to find an honest, non-pompous analyst.
Yes, one thing. I go to a lot of events where I can be the only woman in the room with a bunch of guys, and that's fine. I have no issues with that, really, except that I just think that more diversity in the Linux ecosystem is always good. I think it is great that Pamela Jones created Groklaw. It would be great to see more women developers involved too- there are a few, but seeing more of them would actually be better. The growth of Linux in India, Brazil, China and other countries may foster an increase of women in the community. I think that's probably one of the things that, if I could effect any change, it would be to encourage more women to enter the Linux ecosystem.
That is actually a facinating point.
I've tended to find that as a very rough, general rule, women tend to do a better job of getting along with people than men, and take longer to get angry. If I had a choice between a male or female manager, and was choosing only based on ability to get people to work together and only with knowledge of the gender, I'd probably pick the female manager.
This is especially true for the open-source world, where nobody is *made* to work together. Communities form around how well people deal with each other and work together.
My guess as to why there are few female developers comes down to drive. This isn't that there aren't driven females, but there is a difference in the psychology here. I was reading an article (listed on fark and Metafilter) on why many fields of science generally have breakthroughs done by relatively young people -- developments and interest in work for the sake of work and glory fall off after a certain point. The article drew a link between drive to impress females and the attempt to rack up accomplishments under ones name. (I got a kick out of this, and it stuck in my head -- apparently, my subconscious has been trying hard to improve my sex life by convincing me to code up new algorithms). Anyway, point is that there's at least some research evidence for the male personality being an easier fit for OSS.
Linus' claim for support of "a law to get geeks laid" could have been OSS's undoing.
May we never see th
Is the facts that Linux is open source, more stable and totally free not enough to prove that it IS going to take over Windows? I don't think it takes a genious to figure that out.
Slashdot should really make a correction to its story. The quotation is all wrong and it look's like being done by purpose. How ever we'd hope it to be true..
An true story that doesn't prove anything but makes me feel good:
I was explaining to my brother and my grandma, both avid win2000 users, about linux. I said, "Linux is good because it doesn't crash."
They both said something like, "windows doesn't crash very much either."
Then I said, "In the last two years my linux box has been on constantly and hasn't crashed once."
Their jaws dropped, their eyes got big, and their pupils swelled with envy. I just leaned back and smiled.
Qxe4
Giga management didn't see a linear progression from call center staff to future IT analyst. In fact several times Giga management took pains to emphasize that moving from the call center to work as a research associate with a senior analyst was not a sure thing. Six months into the job a vice Giga president and senior analyst asked me to give him the right of first refusal to become his research associate.
So, one day she was a call center staff with a redundant degree in Mandarin. The next day, *ging* she's an IT Analyst. I'm sure there are CS graduates who would be very interested in how that happened.
Hmmm. I think we're not getting the full picture there. Any relatives / "associates" in the company by any chance?
"It's not your information. It's information about you" - John Ford, Vice President, Equifax
*cough*
Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
... as long as we don't have a good installer which everyone is using. That's the most important point, IMHO. I hate Windows, but I have to admit it's just childsplay to install a program there: just launch the programs' setup.exe and click a few times on "Next".
Not so on Linux... typing "apt-get install foo" is propably the most user-friendly method around, but it requires configuring and using apt from commandline (bad), and it's only avaible on Debian (which I personally don't like... but that's just my taste). In SuSE you can click on an RPM in Konqueror and can then choose to install that RPM with just a mouse-click, but it's no real installer. And neither method works on the other distro.
A unified packager would be a very good thing to have but I think an installer like the Loki Games installer is enough. I wonder whatever happened to the Loki Games installer... that neat tool was how a Linux installer should be: if you've got X you get a GUI, if not you get a text based UI. Simple to use, worked well. Is that one still around somewhere ?
So in summary: as long as it's that hard to install programs as it currently is, Linux won't have a chance on the desktop, unfortunately. KDE 3.2 really rocks and I think GNOME is nice to use, too, but at the bells and whistle don't matter when Joe Dumpass is not able to install a new program.
Knowledgeable users will choose the best software for a specific job they need to do and the best knowledgeable users are those that take the time to investigate both Windows, Linux & other OSes as providing the possible solutions to computing problems that they need to overcome.
It is more important to focus our attention on Open Source software to ensure that the scourge of proprietary formats is wiped from the face of our planet. There is nothing wrong with using commercial software as long as there is an interoperability with Open Source software such that everyone can exchange the data they want to with any people that they need to.
I fully accept that there are security issues in Windows just as much as there are learning curve concerns with Linux.
But the Windows community should embrace Open Source software much more readily than it currently does - for example, Mozilla/Firefox should now be the number one browser because it is free, available on most platforms, and conforms to the HTML standard much more than IE has ever done and will do.
Furthermore, we should all stop being hypocrites. If we are not prepared to pay the going rates for commercial software then we should all actively seek to use (and better) the Open Source alternatives. It is wrong to sit back and wait for OpenOffice.org (for example) to reach 100% compatibility with MS Office while using an illegal copy of MS Office - instead, we should use OOO with equal passion and give our opinions (and time) to the OOO developers to ensure that the product (and others) go in the direction that we need them to go.
It's now the time where we should all grow up a little and take some responsibility for ourselves and how run our computers. MS exists because there is a demand for their products and, if you don't like their products or the way they do things, the best way to get them to change is not give them your money... it's that simple.
I still use Windows 2000 and MS Office because I quite like both as products and because my place of work provides both as tools to me - however, I use Linux more because I've worked hard to learn it and am fortunate to work in a company that embraces Linux also. Going forwards, I will strive to migrate fully to Linux because I personally loathe MS's business strategy and will never pay them (or anyone else) money to access the data and information I already own due to proprietary format licenses.
But in the mean time, I have both work and leisure activities to do on my computers and I am not going to make either harder purely because media pundits believe every computer user is on one or the other side of a non-existent Windows v Linux war.
Be aware of some of the dangers of commercial software, sure, but otherwise use what's best for the job you need to do - as a result, you will be more efficient and find your computing experiences much more fun.
Gentoo Linux - another day, another USE flag.
But I think women SUCK at both software development and management for the most part. They make great PMs, though. In my entire career I haven't seen one woman that was as good as a man would be in her position as a developer or manager. Women tend to think less logically and pay less attention to strategic thinking - both of these qualities are crucial for software developers and management. Men can easier focus and deliver on one thing at all costs. For managers it's also important to know how to get one's point accross, and this sometimes requires being aggressive. Aggressive women just look funny, so the message doesn't get delivered.
I slept with your wife.
Well, I don't know what kind of work you're doing with your linux boxen, but mine run just fine with 500mhz celerons and 256megs of RAM... and that's with X, KDE, and all the usual goodies.
You're sure Gnome or KDE would suck with 500mhz and 768 of RAM? I don't know what distro you'd be using, but even the eye-candy-heavy ones should run fine on that hardware.
Even if a man chops off your hand with a sword, you still have two nice, sharp bones to stick in his eyes.
- highlight the text
- right click
- select "copy" from the context menu
- click to move the cursor to where you want to paste
- right click
- select "paste" from the context menu
It's obvious that that's just as easy as highlighting and middle-clicking, now isn't it?!"[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz
A major in something generally does not lock you in to doing that all your life. If you go to a typical office and start asking people what they majored in, you'll get a surprisingly wide range of responses. Many people have degrees that have little to do with their actual job.
Understanding the precise mechanism of benchmarking disk I/O throughput in the 2.6 kernel is not important to an analyst. Understanding what disk I/O throughput *is* (something that improves performance of database and fileserver applications), whether it affects desireability, and the likelihood that it will be improved to a demanded level in the next six months is important.
Would you go to a bonsai tree gardener to determine whether bonsai tree fertilizer would be a good two year investment, or to a market analyst specializing in the field?
May we never see th
If Microsoft manages to finish WinFS and Avalon, Linux has no chance at the desktop. Windows would be better looking, easier to handle and will offer true information management (which is what people need anyway, not hacking with computers).
I am pretty happy with my XP desktop for day-to-day tasks. In my opinion, the "Killer" feature of an MS desktop is grammar checking. I realise that Word is far from perfect in this regard - but it is better than nothing. It regularly alerts me to poorly constructed prose in hurriedly written documents. If this feature was matched (or preferably bettered) with FOSS, Linux could have my desktop from tomorrow.
I run SUSE 8.3 on PIII 600 Mhz (186 MB RAM). No problems. I could use some more CPU power but don't really have much use for more memory.
My SuSE box plays concurrent sounds just fine using Advanced Linux Sound Architecture. I can have XMMS and AlsaPlayer both running and playing their music mixed no problem. I have a Compaq Presario 1700XL laptop and SuSE 9 had all the drivers for my complete hardware configuration (video, sound, touchpad, etc.), the only thing I had to specify was which ethernet driver to use for the network install (tulip). To get to the point, it seems that Linux has become better since the last time you checked it out...
Shh.
or should i say for Joe Sixpack
I believe in simplicity
Scrap 80% of it out, mae it easy to install as second op. system
Call helpdesk, it specialist will have access to yoor computer and do some tricks under the hood (or just sends executable that changes settings in your computer)
HUI - human user interface
simplicity +
desktop with human face
Hardly the most impartial view on linux - she says that when linux reaches 10% market share it will be a milestone, seems a long way off from competing with ms.
Nothing costs nothing
Ninnle Linux will overtake ALL other operating systems in stability, flexibility and security. In fact, it already has! Check out Ninnle Linux today! www.ninnle.org
This article is a little old, so I don't think too many people will read this, but you are way off base. My main desktop is a 400MHz Pentium II with 192MB of RAM.
I run Mandrake 10 (cooker) as my desktop with KDE 3.2. It runs like a champ. _A champ_. I don't run a ton of services in the background, just ssh and gnump3d so I can have my music at work. I browse the web, do schoolwork and listen to mp3 streams at the same time without problem.
So no you don't, "know modern KDE or Gnome would suck on my mere PIII-500 desktop machine with only 768M of RAM." Because you haven't done it... and it works fine.
PS. I haven't tweaked the hell out of things, its nearly all stock mandrake packages.
They'll think I've lost control again and leave it all to evolution. -- Supreme Being, Time Bandits
Does forecasting that Linux will overtake Windows in 3 years buy the Linux / Open Source movement anything? Will this forecast only bring negative sentiment from the I.T. industry if it is untrue (after 3 years) or if too many of these forecasts are made?
I'm personally getting tired of all these forecasts that say Linux will overtake Windows. Not because I do not believe that they will come true, but because people have been making these types of forecasts for quite a while and at least half of the time they do not come true. I am positive that Linux will overtake Windows someday in the future. I do not know when, but either way I will be happy when it happens.
After two years of active advocacy, my company has decided to start a Linux Pilot Program. Yes, the tide is coming in.
Andrew
Why did I lurk so long before registering for a Slashdot account? I could have had a Slashdot ID of less than 100000.
are you kidding?? most WinXP machines nowadays come with at LEAST 512MB, with a lot coming with 1 GB nowadays. man i've got 2 GB on mine, only the LOW LOW end machines have 256 MB on them. my video card has that much memory..
This actually makes Linux a good choice for environments where you want total control over the workstations you provide to your users (i.e. a corporate environment).
I worked for a while in 2000 at a company that used Linux on the desktop and this was the thing I liked most about it. We had Gnome stripped down to the bare essentials. We never had to deal with people installing their own 3rd party software, or using the pc to play solitaire, etc. If they needed a new package, we installed it remotely and went on our merry way.
There was an occassional grumble from a manager who thought he shouldn't be subject to the same restrictions as the unwashed masses; but for the most part, it was blissfully stable.
Hot Damn! It's the Soggy Bottom Boys!
I have a lot of experience with Linux, Windows,OSX, Solaris, and a few other older OS's. There are three issues which I believe Linux needs to fix before it is ever going to take a bigger role in the desktop market. Of course, when it eventually does fix these problems, it'll destroy Windows very quickly. 1. Linux needs a better desktop system. X either needs a complete re-writting; one that is part of the system as a whole (see OSX). This means that a set of 'STANDARDIZED' graphics libraries need to be created. This is one area which I think Apple hit the apple perfectly. The OSX architecture may be a good one to base an implementation like this on. 2. A better packaging / software installation system; very possibly a standardized one as well. RPMs are in their current incarnation, an absolute nightmare. I can't count the number of times where I've had to install 20+ packages just to get a newer version of KDE, Gnome, or whatever else installed. I do agree that programs like APT, YUM, and Up2date do help manage RPM's and program packages better, but they are temporary fixes to a bigger underlying problem. Package systems are great for server systems, where you have a limited number of services that need to stay updated, but to compete in the desktop market; you need both system working hand in hand, and 'easy to use'. A standardization of an install package needs to be created. This is one area where Windows destroys Linux's package system (I'm not talking about the Windows Registry; I'm talking about "Add/Remove Programs" and InstallShield). Having code to compile is useful.... but seriously people, compiliing a program can cause a lot of problems, especially with the RPM dynamic library system (and the thousands of dependencies) that seem to be found all over. Heck, I tried installing a 'command line' network snooper last week that required the entire set of Gnome libraries (for some obscure reason since it was command line) Summary: The 'Desktop' and 'Package' system need to be addressed badly. Gnome and KDE are always getting better, but X's architecture is hampering Linux. Has anybody tried to get the ATI drivers working with hardware support recently; it sucks bigtime. If Linux driver installation becomes just as easy (or better) than Windows' driver system. Then: 1) more drivers will be created for Linux, 2) A greater portion of those drivers will work right out of the box. Couple all this with a graphics subsystem (standarized with a programming architecture that Linux programmers can use) and a packaging system that doesn't cause 'all' users to pull their hair out, and you will have something that a lot of people will want to use. One last thing: A note to developers.. Unless you are using a library that is used with almost every single program; include the external libraries with your program. People will not use your programs if they have to do the 'dependency' hell tour through the internet. Thanks.
Well crap. How come all these fools install 900 distros trying to get their sound card detected when all they have to do is load a driver just like in windows?
The parent is REALLY good troll. Read it and learn.
And, I'm going to fall for it...
ESD - 1 second lag with MP3s. Say what?!? Not true. Yes, its a "user" daemon, and that is as it should be. Because it also supports network transparency for audio. Eg. Try playing audio on your laptop... with the sound coming out of your stereo... that happens to be wired to your media server... Come on, I dare you, do it in Windows.
Now, lets have the Linux answer (drum roll)
export ESPEAKER=media.lan:16001
The Windows solutions are just SO LAME.
Video cards? How about any fucking thing with VESA support. Good enough for you? And that's what Dell, HP, et al sell. No, the corporate desktop doesn't have need for the latest and greatest gaming card. This is FUD at its finest. Back up your claim, FUD-boy. Name a system *name-brand* with generic video that Linux (redhat 9, or ES) does not support suitably for corporate use.
And last, Linux is *not* a product. It's a kernel. Stick with PRODUCT vendors, and your last gastly argument goes away... Its the same as saying "Oh dear, my Windows box won't run my cell-phone software". Each of your "100's of distributions" is a "competing yet compatible" product.
So, my final retort is that you are the most excellent FUD-boy troller I have seen this week! I am in awe of your mad skillz, sensei!
Ratboy.
Just another "Cubible(sic) Joe" 2 17 3061
Try learning Chinese, I bet it's harder than learning Java or C.
Basically, you were stereotyping. A typical liberal arts education is designed to teach people how to understand and learn about a broad range of topics. Many people study one thing but excel in other areas. I think I heard that the average person changes careers three times in their lifetime.
Besides, She explains her philosophy on how her background has contributed to her success.
Nobody said it was against the law to *be* a monopoly, but it is against the law to *abuse* a monopoly which is what MS has been convicted of.
So yes, the parent post was right. You are a hypocrite.
YHBT.
YHL.
HAND.
i'm just testing to see if the reply feature works
Especially the WinFS system: computers need to manage information, not binary data.
/. accepted the same thing being said by Miguel De Icasa, but when mr Average infamous Joe says it, it is flamebait!!! The Linux community will pay for this arrogance when the time comes (when Linux and other systems will seem so outdated compared to Windows).
The
Anyway, to recoup, what Linux needs now is an object file system which acts as an information system and acts like a live dynamically interpreted object oriented language, where each directory is represented by an object collection which can be programmatically altered and where persistence is important; and the system is distributed. Forget compiling apps, this is the way of the future of writing software, which reflects the dynamic environment of modern enterprises.
Mock me all you want, but I will never be tired to stress the above, again and again. When the time comes, you will remember me.
Or maybe perhaps there is really something wrong with your PC?
Not sure what you're implying there. I would be scared to run a 'Modern Linux Desktop' on an Intel machine with a mere 256MB of RAM.
MERE 256 MB? I have a Celeron 750 with 128MB of ram running a fairly recent release of Mandrake (not known for being a slim distro) with GNOME desktop and it sems to work fine for me. OpenOffice takes quite awhile to load but it works fine one it's up it seems. The same distro was even useable (if a bit pokey) of an AMD K6-2 350 with 96MB of ram--upgraded it to 192MB and it was pretty close to the same as the Celeron 750 for basic tasks.
If you are having trouble using a 256MB machine with a "Modern Linux desktop" you are doing something wrong or are using a very demanding application. The hardware might be misconfigured, or software drivers, or you have a big pile of services turned on that are only applicable to servers (Apache, Postfix, PostgreSQL, ProFTPd etc etc etc...they take up little memory on their own but together they add up).
In addition to this: I can and do run Office 2000, on Windows 95, on an aging Toshiba 486 laptop that only has 32 megs of RAM. It works pretty darn well for writing and spreadsheets. I know for a fact that I could NEVER get acceptable performance with that machine running Linux with OpenOffice.
The 32MB ram part is probably right (I've run Win 95 and Office 2000 on a 24 MB machine). If you run Win NT or 2k forget it though. And the 486 part is utter crap. I tried the Office 2k install on a 486 DX4 100 and it laughed in my face--OFFICE 2000 REQUIRES A PENTIUM CLASS MACHINE TO EVEN RUN AT ALL. And if you think it would run Excel "pretty darn well" then you're standards for performance are quite low and I'm surprised a Linux machine with EIGHT TIMES THE MEMORY couldn't fit the bill.
I want good drivers for my aging software, and as Linux has marched ahead as a platform for closed-source drivers for bleeding edge hardware, and as a server platform, it's partially abandoned most of the 'desktop' hardware I own.
I've found Linux to be BETTER for legacy hardware support. I do concede that drivers that come "ready to run" and automatic HW detection are lacking for stuff that sometimes isn't even THAT old in Linux, you can always hunt down what you need on the 'net--and often in source code form so you can compile it against the CPU and distro you use. Of course you have to have a lot of know-how to do so and the situation sucks, but at least it;s POSSIBLE.
Not so for Windows. I have an old parallel port scanner that still works great on Linux. Windows? forget it. It worked fine in Win 9x but the drivers don't work on ME, NT, 2K or XP. There was an NT driver but it was not very reliable to begin with... and didn't work at all in 2K or XP. No source for the driver of course so couldn't fix it or re-build it even if I had the know-how to do so.
I don't know what it is that turned you off Linux, but it is STILL cool. You also play up Windows and MS Office more than it deserves-- it isn't as snappy as you play it up to be and Office 2k was quite the buggy piece of crap before all the patches and service releases. Kind of refreshing though--if you were trolling you were relatively subtle, and I'm used to seeing MS software get put down MORE than it deserves as well (for example, as long as you have 64MB--more RAM if possible--Win 2K works alright on a machine as slow as a P233--and Windows XP is usable with 128MB of RAM on a PII 266 or 300...it seems that RAM and not processor speed it what Windows hungers for most). So it's nice to see a more "reasonable" MS fanboy
the original comment is at http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=81023&cid=7131 124
Note italicized "in the day" of back in the day, and the blathering about Linux...See karma-whoring guide here.
I have to respectfully disagree with the previous comments. Linux may not take over in the next three years but to say M$ is going to be the overwhelming dominant OS in the next ten years is also a "pipe dream". Too many companies are seriously looking for alternatives to the high liscensing costs of Windows products, as well as the restrictive user agreement. Yes, servers are the first to change, but as CIOs are realizing their employers need some training on using Windows XP (and Longhorn, if it actually ever comes out) when they switch from W95 or W98, the CIOs also realize they could spend the same amount of money on training people how to use Linux. The liscensing costs are much cheaper on Linux, thus the overall ROI (return on investment) is lower with Linux. I have read M$ claims that Linux has a high learning curve and thus costs more to train new users. My curiosity got the better of me so I made a vendor purchase of an older version of SuSE Linux (version 8.2 PRO). The last time I loaded Windows (an ME version), it took me a few days to get all the programs and drivers in. This older version of SuSE Linux took only a little over an hour. It came with many of the Microsoft Office product equivalents and it all worked extremely well and it has yet to crash. It literally took me less than 10 minutes to learn how to open up programs and start using them. Linux uses a GUI that is surprisingly similar to Windows. (BTW, I remember using a "windows type" interface on an old Commodore 64 called GeoWorks).
I am not telling you to scrap your home Windows systems in favor of Linux just yet, just be aware that the average office work could easily be done with the version of Linux I am playing with. I can just imagine what the new SuSE 9.2 version can do. Remember, it was not that long ago that Windows was just for office work. Linux is developing at a much faster rate than Windows did. Just something to think about.
(PS-I think this discussion can do without the profanity that I saw in the previous commentaries. It makes the string appear childish).
I have to respectfully disagree with the comments I have been reading in the replies. Linux may not take over in the next three years (yes, I know that is not what the article really said) but to say M$ is going to be the overwhelming dominant OS in the next ten years is also a "pipe dream". Too many companies are seriously looking for alternatives to the high liscensing costs of Windows products, as well as the restrictive user agreement. Yes, servers are the first to change, but as CIOs are realizing their employers need some training on using Windows XP (and Longhorn, if it actually ever comes out) when they switch from W95 or W98, the CIOs also realize they could spend the same amount of money on training people how to use Linux. The liscensing costs are much cheaper on Linux, thus the overall ROI (return on investment) is lower with Linux. I have read M$ claims that Linux has a high learning curve and thus costs more to train new users. My curiosity got the better of me so I made a vendor purchase of an older version of SuSE Linux (version 8.2 PRO). The last time I loaded Windows (an ME version), it took me a few days to get all the programs and drivers in. This older version of SuSE Linux took only a little over an hour. It came with many of the Microsoft Office product equivalents and it all worked extremely well and it has yet to crash. It literally took me less than 10 minutes to learn how to open up programs and start using them. Linux uses a GUI that is surprisingly similar to Windows. (BTW, I remember using a "windows type" interface on an old Commodore 64 called GeoWorks).
I am not telling you to scrap your home Windows systems in favor of Linux just yet, just be aware that the average office work could easily be done with the version of Linux I am playing with. I can just imagine what the new SuSE 9.2 version can do. Remember, it was not that long ago that Windows was just for office work. Linux is developing at a much faster rate than Windows did. When more companies switch to Linux, many employees will switch at home. Just something to think about.
(PS-I think this discussion can do without the profanity that I saw in the previous commentaries. It makes the string appear childish).
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The fact of the matter is, most CS-majors couldn't code their way out of a wet paper bag -- much less solve a problem elegantly.
And even worse most of them can't administer even a windows box to save their lives. I was building my own PCs and doing consulting sysadmin work while I was in college in CS and my friends bugged me for tech support constantly. Granted the courses don't teach how to do any of the stuff most Sysadmins do regularly, but you'd think people smart enough to learn how to code (whether elegantly or not) could figure out how to do basic admin tasks like keep anti-virus updated and download security patches and apply them. (Especially for the windows users, windows update makes that pretty brainless, at least for the ones it deigns to show you.)You hear the saying that it's not important what you get a degree in but that you have one. That's very often true because in most fields the really useful things aren't taught in class, you have to learn them on your own. If you're resourceful enough to complete a degree (and you'll run into a few classes where the prof is worthless and you'll have to teach yourself or find friends to help you learn) then you're resourceful enough to learn how to do the things needed for a job -- any job. Yes I know there are some jobs out there that you need highly specialized training for, but in general this applies. I work in IT and I can count the CS courses I took that are useful to me in the real world on one hand, I have no reason to expect it to be any different for other majors.