Slashdot Mirror
No Secret Plan at Google?
daltonlp writes "A number of smart folks have speculated that Google might leverage its computational resources to create some kind of massive online application delivery platform. Here's why they are probably wrong." One of more intelligent insights into Google, and it's pleasantly devoid of theories of Google taking over the world.
I don't believe we quite have a conspiracy theory here...
"Nature bats last..."
Can't do anythign until I have my google news of the day
They didn't hire Rob and Marc to work on giving you online spreadsheets.
If they did this or an OS, which they wont as the article says wouldn't it cost them and the used massave amounts of bandwidth?
people started to spreading FUD as to how Google would dominate the world.
I for one welcome our Google overlord
I am harvesting funny/good quotes. Please help by putting them in your sigs
If there was a secret plan you wouldn't know about it anyway so saying "There is no secret plan" is nonsense.
Support the First Amendment. Read at -1
What amazes me is that google constantly comes out with USEFUL and credible apps.
Google Search = has long been the standard
Google Groups = complete usenet archive
Google Mail = arguably the best free email service now.
Google Local = returns excellent results even for my small town!
Google Maps = it is all I use to plan a trip now
Google Search = it is all I use to search my 1/2 terrabyte of storage.
Picasa = one heck of an image manipulation/retrieval program.
I for one welcome an innovative company that provides me with excellent apps. If they wanna design an OS - I'm yelling to GO FOR IT!
It will take someone with google's clout to do this.
its... SKYNet!!!
Whats wrong with my computer.. would I like to play a game? Global Themonuclear War?? No! Wait.. whats going on with...
~~~~^@^@@##$&@@@))^^^~~~ DISCONNECTED.
Of their developers spending 20% of their time on pet projects, I wonder how many of those are open source projects of various kinds.
Failures (and business declines) often happen in big chunks: Lawsuit settlement of tens of millions of dollars. Major market shift away from your technology.
This is just smart business. Google will continue to move and enhance and grow in manageable increments. If they try to take over the world, it will be suicidal.
Anyone remember the dot-bomb era? The survivors are those that performed managed growth and bit off pieces that could be chewed. The failures tried to take over the world, and translate eyeballs into unrealistic company valuations. Works for a while, then you get an unemployment check....
They are taking over the world. They plan on taking over the world by not taking over the world. "Hey, Google is nice....they aren't taking over the world" Then before you know it you page ranking what to eat, who your friends are, what car to buy, where to live, where to work.
Then whammo you can't live without Google telling you what to do in nice little browser friendly bites.
Wait nevermind...I already do that.
Lets welcome our Page Ranking pverlords.
People who bite the hand that feeds them usually lick the boot that kicks them
pleasantly devoid of theories of Google taking over the world
Damn they have infiltrated Slashdot now. Google I am on to you.
Google Groups = complete usenet archive
This was acquired, not created by Google. And arguably, the old Deja capabilities were better (wild card searching) than what Google currently offers (mainly cosmetic changes and no wildcards). Personally that is what brought me over to Google, not the search engine itself. I was quite happy using Yahoo for targeted categorized searches and metacrawler for more extensive stuff. Google just had that cult of personality thing going and they've been riding the wave ever since. After all, just what makes gmail all that great anyway? I think the ad's are an abomination and I use hushmail.
In anticipation of the day when Google does become evil and takes over the world and we all wish that we had a time machine so that we could go back to 2005 and stop Google while we still had the chance, I've been doing some searching for plans to build such a contraption.
It seems those Google bastards have anticipated even this!
I'm a big tall mofo.
Mods, this isn't flame bait but why the fuck is this news? This hasn't been posted numerous times. "A number of smart folks have speculated..." Which smart folks? Why the fuck can't you link to them? "..Here's why they are probably wrong.." One view of why they're wrong. Oh and from TFA "But this theory could be wrong." You know, I know I'm bitchin' and moaning, but I've been a long time reader of /. but this site is really going down hill.
We need to do something to make this site back on top again and it starts with appropriate articles, not loosely written blogger tripe.
I don't care what they do or how many sites they have that are trying to "control my online experience". Right now, I use their search engine and their email. Their maps look pretty, but it is still easier to use mapquest for me.
It's nice to read things like this article, because until Google is "selling" me something, and it comes preloaded (or pre-bookmarked) on my computer, I am not concerned in the least bit. Why do we have to hear about why or why not they have a consipracy to take over the world? They write good stuff for the web, and people use their stuff by choice. I've never heard someone outside of Slashdot say "Man, that company Google is taking over my life. I can't do anything online without being forced into using Google."
I do like the part at the end of the article about MS having to test their new browser against Gmail, Google Maps, and Google itself. It does add a bit of irony that finally MS and IE have to worry about being compatible instead of the other way around.
Google has no secret plan - posted March 17,2005
Hey look. Someone else is predicting that Google will user their super-mega-ultimate-supreme server farm to replace your PC's operating system.
That sounds familiar.
I do not buy it. Let's look at some of the arguments:
"Google has hired OS experts like Rob Pike and Marc Lucovsky! Clearly they are toiling away on the Manhattan project of OS research, which will culminate in some kind of...SOMETHING! Some kind of something which will sweep Microsoft from the face of the earth!"
A more likely scenario is that Google does indeed perform OS research, but not for you and I. For themselves. Their clusters use a custom filesystem. They run linux, but it's been modified from the original Red Hat. They need (and can attract) smart folks to build and extend these systems. But it's all for the benefit of storage and search. They didn't hire Rob and Marc to work on giving you online spreadsheets. Sorry.
"Google uses wowie-zowie javascript for Gmail and Google maps! Clearly this is the harbinger of their browser-based OS-like-thingy!"
I think they use javascript because it works well. It's one step beyond html. Like any other technology-driven company, they'll use the best tools they can, even if those tools aren't mainstream yet. I've looked at the source code for both Gmail and Google maps, and I believe they are two entirely different projects, run by two separate groups. The goal of one is to make a good web-based email service. The goal of the other is to make a good online map service. I find it difficult to fit those pieces together into a master strategy. I think they evolved independently.
"Google has invested in native clients like Picasa and Keyhole maps and Desktop Search! Clearly this is an aggressive move into the consumer application space!"
Well, that's partly true. But Google isn't primarily interested in selling consumer apps. I think Picasa and Keyhole were acquired because Google wants to own delivery channels (browsers) for data that doesn't currently have a good delivery channel. Html data is delivered by a web browser, and it's probably a bit late for Google to own that. But Geographic data (the real thing, not road maps) has no browser, except either a full-blown GIS system or a lightweight client like keyhole. Photos on your hard drive have no browser (unless you have a mac).
I think Google desktop search was kind of a fluke. Something they could do fairly easily (right?) with some market opportunity (because windows default search BLOOOOOOOOOOWS). A low-investment play that incidentally forced MS and Yahoo to play catch-up.
Let's talk about business strategy. It's fun to imagine that Google has some awesome master plan for controlling all computerdom. But I have a simpler theory that I think fits the evidence:
A) Google cares first and foremost about web search. Most of their architect-level employees will be working on making search better. I think one of Google's big shots said something similar right out loud. Search is what they do.
B) Google cares secondly about new kinds of search. Book search. Place search. Image search. Discussion group search. Product search. Email search. Because they have an advertising model that can be targeted to most any type of search. (Google also cares about new kinds of search because web ads may not work forever.)
C) Google cares thirdly about interesting new things. These come from employees. Depending on which source you believe, Google employees spend either 10% or 20% of their time working on personal projects. (Update: It looks like 20% is the correct number) The really successful projects get publicized via Google labs. Google maps started as one of these. I bet Gmail did too.
I'm especially interested in (C). 20% is a lot of time. Would your company willingly slash 20% from its developer-hours? Why is this important?
For one thing, it's the world's best marketing department. Those Google labs pro
Damn, I think we're getting re-directs from Googledot.org. Yikes.
I am defenseless. Use your button. Mod me down with all of your hatred.
The article highlights that Google developers are allowed to spend 20% of their time on what daltonlp calls "lab projects, personal projects, forever-in-beta projects, whatever".
Google constantly produces revolutionary innovations that noone can foretell. (How many of you thought you would have 1gb of email space for free?)
Conclusion is, I don't quite buy daltonlp's arguments for why it would be impossible that one of these lab projects is to develop browser based os/applications.
http://daltonlp.com.nyud.net:8090/daltonlp.cgi?ite m_type=0&item_id=424
In case of Slashdotting, break mirror.
I believe Google may be aiming not only at operating systems market. Even today most students, regardless of a discipline, find all the knowledge sources they need using google. Assuming they keep their current position as a search engine, they will effectively bring up entire new generation. Imagine the kind of power it brings. New operating system? How about a new major religion? Or taking over global economy?
They don't need to reinvent the wheel.
Get your own free personal location tracker
Despite that Google isn't out to take over the world their impact on the net is quite amazing.
Google's long standing tech demo that is their search engine has become pretty important. In fact, for the most part, if it doesn't come up on a google search, it doesn't exist.
There have been so many memes spawned from google as well... Google-whacking, google fights, google bombing, etc.
Let's not forget the chaos that ensued when GMail opened up either.
They don't need to take over anything, really, everyone's eating out of the palm of their hand.
...pleasantly devoid of theories of Google taking over the world.
Theories? Oh, we're well past that...
I Want To Believe
She predicts a world where all the apps are central and we simply connect to them in a server/client mode. This way- things are portable to us. Our PC at home and our PCs are world no longer become unsynched- they are one. Goto your neighbors house- and it is just like your home environment cause it is portable.
Well- right now many of us carry memory stick key fobs on our keychains. I current carry a gig USB stick. How long time someone puts a bluetooth device inside it? How long until they can add a processor die and some RAM? In ten year- you may be carrying your entire PC on your keychain. Put your keys into your monitor at work- and there is your environment- no network needed. No fees to pay to a central server. If you could carry your PC as you would a keyfob- would you care about having a centralized server?
The guy who wrote the link submitted the article. Way to go for self-promotion.
Breaking News:
Google not taking over the world.
Return to your homes.
Reinsert Google Brain Wave Devices.
Listen to the happy music.
Gumstix
With platforms like THIS, what you're thinking can't be too far off. A keychain computer. Wouldn't have to be too powerful, it'd just need a small, projectable display and a virtual keyboard.
Luck favors the prepared, darling.
Google and Amazon.com will merge into, the grid will be born, Blog's will rule the news... oh, it's just too sad to go on...
See it for yourself!
Blockwars: free, multiplayer, head to head game similar to Tetris.
"They do not preach that their god will rouse them, a little before the Nuts work loose." Kipling, 'The Sons of Martha'
Come on get real google has the largest looming threat of it's corporate life on the horizon one from which they will not survive unless they take serious action right now. When MS releases longhorn and their new browser I fully expect that MSN search is gonna be wound into everything they can put it in. This will have the same exact effect that it had on netscape certain death. The only way to avoid this and have any chance to compete is to push firefox like mad, push firefox specific features, xul etc... In effect they have
to push their own version of firefox as a platform if they are to survive.... But it may already be too late..
I love FF and Google but they are about to fall into the same mistake as others before them by not responding to the threat.
Got Code?
Google should have a "buy this song" option when you search for music or musicians.
Google doesnt have to actually sell it, they can link off to a third party.. Hopefully not Apple cause third parties should have a chance to be in on this.
Yeah they'll have to work out a deal with Napster or DRM issues or whatever.
If not google, I hope someone does it anyway (msn or yahoo).
Hey Google people, try this for a personal project...
Take the same Linux you run in house, customize it so it can boot on a regular PC. It launches into Firefox. There are icons with colorful links to Gmail (for your mail), OpenOffice (for your word processing) and Picassa (for photos). Call it GoogleOS.
Geez why would they go the route of a costly infrastructure setup when they already have what they need?
I'll tell you what they're doing, they are using knowledge of what everyone around the whole world is searching for to tap into all kinds of consumer trend and demand opportunities. You know all those shoppers club cards that track your purchases, and credit cards which track all your spending habits? That data is awfully valuable. And Google has the best knowledge in the world. All they have to do is perfect the way the data is organized and packaged to marketing buyers.
For a quick glimpse of the possibilities, let's say you play the stock market. Wouldn't it be brilliant to know what potential investors are really interested in this week, what they have been researching online... well Google knows! I'll be they realize this, and are working on a way to capitalize on it.
pleasantly devoid of theories of Google taking over the world? wouldnt that be a good thing?
Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job. - HHGTTG
According to one of the comments on that blog, which I read before it finally crumbled under the weight of slashdot, commenter 'Rick' claims that Google Deskbar uses Google's own fab, internally written browser.
This internally written browser is apparently 'fast and incredibly compatible'.
Sounds great! Problem is, the browser component in Google Deskbar == Internet Explorer.
I chuckled.
Their stuff works, works well, and they seem to fit the "benevolent benefactor" quite nicely.
it's been slashdotted and taken off (404 now)...anyone got a mirror?
Well, maybe it is only me...
What modern Obelix would say today? Of course, "Those crazy Americans!".
Google created Google Groups.
Google only acquired the archives themselves, ie the data. They developed the storage/search/retrieval/interface-for-the-above system which acts on that data.
No Comment.
... was convincing humans, he does not exist.
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
Maybe they are looking at being a Application Service provider.
With DejaNews I could search back through years of archived usenet posts, Google threw all that away. It's all gone.
Do you really think the pension fund managers and mutual fund managers do their stock research using google? I can see the consumer trend information though.
The real reason not to have a plan is that if you have a plan, you risk feeling obligated to follow it even when conditions change and the plan no longer makes sense.
By being adaptable, and taking advantage of opportunities when they appear, you can take over the world without a "plan".
Of course, you still need to have done all the preparation so you can sieze the opportunities when they appear, but since you can't know ahead of time what or when, let your people work on their own stuff 20% of the time. By the laws of chance, some of them will be doing what you will need.
Profit!!
There is not nearly enough love in the world, but there is far too much trust.
In that case, Google must have already pwned us.
Yeah, they're much like one of those nice girls in high school. They're friendly, and mean to do good, but you end up obsessing over them 'cause they're so blatantly hot. They take over your mind with their curves intelligence and self-confidence...and of course that keeps a man from ever getting some real (for lack of a better term) knowledge.
Google is the hot, slimmed-down, super-smart chick of the Internet; if it was a girl, it'd be that rare case of someone who wouldn't spoon-feed you with gossip unless you want her to, would be there for you the moment you need her, would help you with research, and would even get the mail for you. She'd even let you see others. Sounds like a supermodel to me.
You can hold down the "B" button for continuous firing.
you are assuming that a company with hundreds of employees has NO idiot among its rank, ranging from bragging Adwords marketer to caffeine and blog addicted code junkies.
well, you are assuming too much. past a given threshold, you will get such liabilities in your staff. just gotta learn to manage it.
In short, Google is a privacy-desaster waiting to happen. Look at this list for all the data they collect.
They state not to give private data to 3rd parties. But do they also not *give _compiled_ data to 3rd parties, like checks for a credit rating or health care plan or *taylor your search results (possibly including quoted prices?) to your record?
They are heavily watched, so any proven wrongdoing will cause quite a stir and they will feel the sting. I do, however, throw away my Google cookie every other week.
Thinking that Google is going to enter the OS business or that if they did, they would have a chance is not the sign of a sound, rational mind. It's like taking candy from babies. And dealing with that conspiracy theory doesn't address the other conspiracy theories.
Third, he ignores that Google is highly overvalued for a "search" company. Google's market cap is $49 billion. If they are really just a "search" company, then maybe their P/E should be more in line with high growth companies at around 40 instead of 124. Yes, that means dropping the value of the company by a factor of three. I base this on that their search advertising looks relatively saturated to me. I don't see where the huge growth in value is going to come from.
Fourth, he ignores that this looks exactly like a dotcom moment. Google is making a sizeable profit (which is vastly better than all but a handful of dotcoms past or present), but they aren't exhibiting the kind of growth potential (IMHO, of course) that justifies 124 times P/E.
Finally, he places way too much emphasis on getting Microsoft to play good doggie. Being able to force Microsoft to make their sites compatible with yours isn't that interesting. The New York Times or Amazon gets that as well. And after all, Microsoft has by far the largest army of programmers in the world. It's not going to have a measurable impact.
Hosted OS is a good idea if you want more control over your stupid users - just give them terminals and they can't break so many things.
But unlike electric power generation, providing a large central capacity is harder than a distributed one. That is why people how need tons of compute power use grids.
The added cost of the distributed approach is in system admin related costs.
Personally, I like to write programs on my computer, and make it do things the service provider didn't think of. People like me are a minority, but there are millions of us all over the world.
What keeps me going is my inertia.
Now the reason for people speculating that Google is building an OS to be wrong is a 404 error. I've seen bad argumentation on /. but this is definitely the worse one yet.
http://www.fuckedgoogle.com/
The top three execs at Google have sold over 500 million dollars worth of stock in the last 3 months, which is more than the company itself has made in TOTAL profit since the day it was founded.
Guess everyone really has forgotten what happened in the last dot.com boom?
I believe it's a violation of Federal law, now, for publicly traded company not to at least try to take over the world.
The Alan Parsons Project.
The stock thing was just an example. The point is, knowledge is valuable and Google has a lot of knowledge about people through their searches and index. Google could make money and still keep their streamlined, free search engine -- it doesn't necessarily have to be all ad revenue.
99.9% ? /.ers believe youre a dolt?
Really?
Is that how much of the net know Google is better or is that how much
Read the guy right above you instead of feeling smug.
Everyday joe's dont care.....all they want is their games and their pr0n.
I love it when geeks with no idea how hte real world thinks give us opinion on how the real world thinks.
Just because YOU wont use MSN doesnt mean that millions wouldnt either.
If you were right, Microsoft and AOL wouldnt dominate their markets.
As is, youre a -1
Repeat after me: Leverage is not a verb
I dont care, what to do.
Yes. The next Roland Piquepaille, that's me! Self-promotion is awesome. Despite what your parents may have told you, it does not lead to blindness or hairy palms.
it doesn't exist? I googled my own name and nothing ca... [no carrier]
Interested in a Flash-based MAME front end? Visit mame.danzbb.com
beautiful. want a hand job?
The Unknown
As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.
--Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing
Direct away from face when opening.
I can't really tell, and tell no one, but here are the secrets they are working on... -Cofee machine controlled by the Internet. gcofee.google.com -Game : ultra pong with 20000 paddles and one ball. g20000.google.com -Gpoint. Things about woman. gpoint.google.com
No sig for now.
The article states:
:-/
"They run linux, but it's been modified from the original Red Hat."
I didn't know that Red Hat was the original.
v4sw6PU$hw6ln6pr4F$ck 4/6$ma3+6u7LNS$w2m4l7U$i2e4+7en6a2X h
The author of that article is a diletant. Most of his claims and predictions are nothing but a dick stirring coffee, and most of which is a pure speculation. I'm disappointed with /. and the quality of the articles.
I'm not saying this because of this article in particular. I'm talking of all the Google gossip out there.
This reminds me of an e! show. Always speculating all possible what ifs of the company of the moment. Everyday, there's a new article on what they will do or where they could be heading. Some articles doesn't even contact Google for comment.
Aren't there any other topics to talk/write about?
hey asshole thanks for ripping on multiple post of mine. Fuckface"ripping" on you post??? Get a grip! What I said was that Google has expressed interest in buying up dark fiber!
"Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!" - Glen Beck
Me? I'm waiting for singles.google.com too go live.
LongTail SSH Brute Force analysis tool is here!
>I think Picasa and Keyhole were acquired...for data that doesn't currently have a good delivery channel.
The other interesting thing that Picasa does is make Google's job easier.
Images are a pain to search for, because Google has to get likely information about their content from alt tags (that no one uses) or context.
My undrestanding is Picasa writes the users' comments and information to the EXIF tags of their images. This allows Google to read that information without having to guess context from the content of the webpage. This is an enormous benefit, for what was probably a relatively minimal investment.
If you think advertising revenue from search/adwords/etc justifies this stock price, you're crazy. (Same goes for Yahoo.) Of course, the market can always be wrong, but clearly the market *believes* that Google has some giant plants up its sleeve. I can't think of much that would fit the bill unless it was some form of application serving over the Net.
And, unless those Google employees have been dumping stock left and right, they must believe Google has something big up their sleeve as well.
"My girlfriend's got sodium laureth sulfate hair."
Thanks, but not now...I'm spent.
Search Results are great, datasets are better.
Google has been analyzing their own state-of-the-art technology for a relatively very, long time. This is a company that specializes in Categorization. A Library is not an operating system per se, but if you need it and it's top-notch and it's free - which member of a sizeable consumer demographic is not going to click "OK?" Public institutions will.
Google has lots of the highway exits covered and they are scanning and indexing more and more everyday. They've made M$ studder a few times here and there and quite frankly they seem comfortable with themselves. Let a bot loose in the stacks of history and you've got GoogleXML in various flavors that really changes the anti-trust landscape.
Google could whip up a Google'nix (O/S) for aging PCs and install their suite of packages and have a valuable resource for every home. So it is that precipitous; but it's just a little soon I think.
That darned map better have mileage and scale!
Stuff that matters.
If they really wanted to take over the world, they'd be smart enough to hide it from you.
In fact, they're so smart, they'd know you'd be thinking they'd hide it from you so they'd come out and say they were going to take over the world so you'd think they weren't really going to.
Actually, they're so very, very smart, they'd know you were thinking that they'd know you'd be thinking they'd hide it from you so they'd come out and say they were going to take over the world so you'd think they weren't really going to, but they wouldn't tell you so you knew that they'd be...
Oh, hell, I'm confused. Is Google planning on taking over the world or not this week? Who has the memo?
That is all.
gooogle is the best way to "innocently" secure info on the worlds net using population.
The NSA's (or some power mad org) perfect spy, knows all, tell all.
No FUD involved, only logic and an ability to follow the money.